http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/articles/detail/ en tpitcher@smallcappulse.com Copyright 2009 2009-11-12T14:25:01-08:00 smallcappulse/feedhttp://feedburner.google.com http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/vUgoBNLG7EU/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_comments_on_indias_solar_plans_first_solar_amorphous_silicon_could_/#When:13:25:01Z November 12, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman commented this morning’s on India’s plans to detail its National Solar Mission this week. In addition to its goal of achieving 20GW of solar power generation by 2020 (1GW of installs between 2012 and 2013), the government is expected to discuss certain guidelines. Bachman’s Key Takeaways ·         Thinks the government will disclose subsidies and a generous Feed-in-Tariff (FIT)  ·         The government is targeting domestic solar manufacturing capacity of between 4GW and 5GW by 2017 ·         At Solarcon India earlier this week, government officials discussed the formation of SolarCity, a 10,000 acre parcel of barren land will be used in the development of the first 2GW of solar – with the initial allotment of land to Sunborne, Inc., Lanco Solar, Titan Energy and AES Solar. ·         The news should benefit First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), noting AES Solar’s current installs in Europe using First Solar modules. Thinks First Solar could supply 30MW of modules into market in 2010 and up to 200MW by 2013 ·         Increased spending is also a positive for Applied Materials, which has two turnkey SunFab customers in India – Moser Baer and KSK Surya Photovoltaic Venture ·         Believes India will be an ideal region for amorphous silicon (a-Si) panels due and to a less extent for tandem junction silicon panels (both produced in SunFabs) due to better performance in high temperature regions competed to conventional silicon panels. 2009-11-12T13:25:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_comments_on_indias_solar_plans_first_solar_amorphous_silicon_could_/#When:13:25:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/zFHUh82gdBI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_comments_on_a123_nasdaqaone_q3_results_rates_sector_/#When:13:18:01Z November 11, 2009 – Analyst Comments -  Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman commented on A123 Systems’ Q3 financial results this morning, noting that the results were “solid” and there is no change to his long-term thesis. He rates the stock at SECTOR PERFORM. Financial Results   Q3 revenue of $23.6 million, up from $22.9 million for the same period last year. Product revenue increased 42% on Y/Y basis, while R&D revenue increased 59% Y/Y. The company reported a  net loss of $22.8 million, or $1.78 per share, compared with a net loss of $1 million for the same period last year. It had $494 million of cash on hand at September 30, 2009. Bachman’s Key Takeaways ·         “The loss of ($1.78) per share looks much worse than our estimate of ($0.20), but all but $0.03 of the miss was driven by a share-count discrepancy.  ·         A123 is confident about Chrysler, but the implications are not clear yet. Bachman thinks timing and volume of battery shipments to Chrysler are uncertain and present significant risk to A123. ·         A123 continues to build a solid pipeline of transportation customers, which could lead to volume orders and share catalysts  ·          Risk/reward ratio remains balanced and continues to value shares of AONE at $19 based on our base-case DCF model. Believes traction in automotive and grid markets could justify upside to current levels, but that potential upside is offset by risk to A123’s customer ramp plans, especially at Chrysler. 2009-11-11T13:18:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_comments_on_a123_nasdaqaone_q3_results_rates_sector_/#When:13:18:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/Oz430YcKl7U/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_seth_comments_on_ener1_nasdaqhev_q3_results_rates_neutral/#When:13:08:00Z November 11 – Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Raj Seth commented  this week on Ener1’s (Nasdaq:HEV) Q3 conference call, noting that he is encouraged by the company’s strong pipeline, but ST is recommending to remain on the sidelines. He rates the stock at NEUTRAL. Key Takeaways ·         Management expects to announce a supply agreement with Fisker by year end. At about $12,000 per pack, this would represent about $85 million in potential revenues for 2010. Also expects some revenues from Think in Q4. Japan Post and Volvo have also placed orders for testing. ·         HEV expects about $400 million in funding from government programs. ·         ST Ener1 financials are hard  to predict – estimates earnings power of about $0.70 in 2012 based on $700 million in revenues and EBITDA margins of about 15%. 2009-11-11T13:08:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_seth_comments_on_ener1_nasdaqhev_q3_results_rates_neutral/#When:13:08:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/7ZE1zs03sfI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_comments_on_energy_conversion_devices_nasdaqener_rates_neutral/#When:13:07:01Z November 11  – Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Robert Stone commented this week on Energy Conversion Device’s Q1 2010 financial results, noting that given many quarters of projected losses, he expects the stock to trade well below book value. He rates the stock at NEUTRAL. Financial Results Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq:ENER) reported  Q1 2010 revenues of $42.9 million, compared with $95.8 million for the same period last year and $51.4 million for Q4 09. Solar product and project  sales were $36.1, $89.5 and $46 million, respectively. It reported a net loss of $11.8 million, or $0.28 per diluted shares in Q1/10, compared with a net loss of $17.6 million in Q4 and net income of $11.8 million for the same period last year. Key Takeaways ·         Q1 revenue came in below the Street, cost/watt decined by about 6% sequentially to $1.76, with GM at $24.5%, but ASPs fell 13%. ·         Expects Q2 to be burdened by underutilization ·         Until it gains scale, the project segment is likely to be lumpy and low-margin. Estimates restructuring charges of $7.5 million to integrate SIT and cut overhead ·         “Sharply cutting estimates on lower volume.” Q2 shipments are expected to be flat, cutting F10-11E shipments by 46% and 25%, and F12-13 by 8% and 5%. ·         Visibility on BIPV shipments looks low until construction recovers ·         Cut F10-13E revenue to $216M, $395M, $585M and $750M, respectively, and per share results to ($1.51), ($0.34), $0.17 and $0.53. 2009-11-11T13:07:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_comments_on_energy_conversion_devices_nasdaqener_rates_neutral/#When:13:07:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/t9-am2IRVtE/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/global_hunters_justin_cable_maintains_neutral_on_ormat_nyseora_45_price_tar/#When:14:31:01Z November 6, 2009 – Analyst Comments - Global Hunter’s Justin Cable weighed in this morning on Ormat’s (NYSE:ORA) Q3 results, which came in above expectations. Cable maintains a NEUTRAL rating citing sharp pullback in products due to soft bookings. Q3 Results Ormat reported a 20% Y/Y increase in Q3 revenues to $119.8 million and net income of $23.4 million, or $0.52 per share, compared with $15.8 million for the same period last year. Management said it expects the electricity segment revenues for 2009 to be between $254 and $258 million, with an additional $9 million of revenue from its share of electricity revenue generated by a subsidiary, which is accounted for under the equity method. For its Product Segment results it increased its guidance to approximately $150 million.Cable’s Key Takeaways ·         Believes geothermal outlook remains long-term positive, and Ormat best positioned to benefit ·         Remains cautious about tight credit markets and future government awards which could stall projects in the near-term ·         Product backlog decreased 40.2% sequentially and 57.6% Y/Y; guidance implied 34% in Products revenue in Q4 and outlook is that 2010 Product revenues may not achieve 2009 levels·         Maintains NEUTRAL rating and $45 price target 2009-11-06T14:31:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/global_hunters_justin_cable_maintains_neutral_on_ormat_nyseora_45_price_tar/#When:14:31:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/2aMPQB0zjeI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/global_hunters_justin_cable_maintains_neutral_on_ormat_nyseora_45_price_tar/#When:14:31:00Z November 6, 2009 – Analyst Comments - Global Hunter’s Justin Cable weighed in this morning on Ormat’s (NYSE:ORA) Q3 results, which came in above expectations. Cable maintains a NEUTRAL rating citing sharp pullback in products due to soft bookings. Q3 Results Ormat reported a 20% Y/Y increase in Q3 revenues to $119.8 million and net income of $23.4 million, or $0.52 per share, compared with $15.8 million for the same period last year. Management said it expects the electricity segment revenues for 2009 to be between $254 and $258 million, with an additional $9 million of revenue from its share of electricity revenue generated by a subsidiary, which is accounted for under the equity method. For its Product Segment results it increased its guidance to approximately $150 million. Cable’s Key Takeaways ·         Believes geothermal outlook remains long-term positive, and Ormat best positioned to benefit ·         Remains cautious about tight credit markets and future government awards which could stall projects in the near-term ·         Product backlog decreased 40.2% sequentially and 57.6% Y/Y; guidance implied 34% in Products revenue in Q4 and outlook is that 2010 Product revenues may not achieve 2009 levels ·         Maintains NEUTRAL rating and $45 price target 2009-11-06T14:31:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/global_hunters_justin_cable_maintains_neutral_on_ormat_nyseora_45_price_tar/#When:14:31:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/tuOX1nkAMhM/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_downgrades_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_to_sector_perf/#When:13:58:00Z November 6, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman weighed in on Evergreen Solar’s (Nasdaq:ESLR) Q3 results, stating that “given the near-term challenges ahead, we no longer have the conviction to recommend putting new money into the stock.” Bachman downgraded to SECTOR PERFORM. Key Takeaways ·         Modeled declines in ASPs (22% in 2010), underutilization at Devens, ramp expenses from China and continued losses from Sovello ·         Downside risk is probably minimal at 0.5x price-to-book ·         Evergreen may need to return to the capital markets late next year to increase debt or add further dilution ·         Lowering 2010 revenue and EPS estimates to $355.3 million and ($0.03) from $466 and $0.29, respectively and removing price target 2009-11-06T13:58:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_downgrades_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_to_sector_perf/#When:13:58:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/Etf8pX5wqto/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_comments_on_implications_of_first_solar_nasdaqfslr_land_purchase_fr/#When:13:51:00Z November 6, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman commented this morning on First Solar’s (Nasdaq:FSLR) land purchase from Ausra which he says mitigates risk for its 550MWac Topaz Project. ·         Environmentalists continue to battle with large project developers, and the Ausra parcel will give First Solar more flexibility in placement of solar arrays from land covered by the Land Conservation Act of1965 to create  additional wildlife corridors to appease the environmentalists ·         The purchase will also enable faster permitting ·         Profitability impact to the Topaz project should be nominal – even at $4,000/acre, at $3.50/Wdc the project is worth almost $2.4 billion. A $3 million impact on the cost of the additional land would impact gross margin by less than 0.2%. 2009-11-06T13:51:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_comments_on_implications_of_first_solar_nasdaqfslr_land_purchase_fr/#When:13:51:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/jsA2W-bmhg4/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_weighs_in_on_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_q3_results/#When:14:27:01Z November 5, 2009 – Analyst Comments -  Cowen’s Robert Stone commented this morning on Evergreen Solar’s (Nasdaq:ESLR) Q3 results, noting that while the operating loss was smaller than expected, a wider loss at Sovello indicates that  it is in trouble. Stone maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock. Financial Results Evergreen Solar reported Q3 revenue of $77.7 million, compared with $63.8 million in Q2 and $22.1 million for the same period last year. Gross margins were 9.7%, 1.9% and 5.7%, respectively. Net loss for Q3 was $82.4 million, compared with $20.3 million in Q2 and $24.6 million last year. In terms of key highlights, Evergreen shipped 31.1MW from Devens in Q3, up from 23.2MW in Q2. It said it reduced its manufacturing cost to $2.24 per watt, down 17% from $2.70/watt in Q2. Wafer manufacturing costs were about $0.75/watt, down from $0.85/watt in Q2. Stone’s Key Takeaways ·         The J.V.’s bank waiver expires at the end of November, and is at risk of further write-off. Evergreen is carrying Sovello at $50MM. ·         While cost/watt improved 17% sequentially to $2.40 and product GM rose to 7.1, it is above the ASP Stone estimates for Chinese competitors – cost/watt still not competitive ·         Maintains NEUTRAL rating on the stock 2009-11-05T14:27:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_weighs_in_on_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_q3_results/#When:14:27:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/YytuYT8KO8g/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_sees_chrysler_announcement_as_a_potential_positive_for_a123_nasdaqa/#When:13:43:01Z November 5, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman commented on Chrysler’s PHEV business this morning and the implications for A123 (Nasdaq:AONE). He maintains A123 at OUTPERFORM.   Key Takeaways ·         Chrysler’s announcement that it is including a PHEV Ram pickup in its 2011 ENVI fleet could be a positive for A123, though no units or suppliers were noted. Chrysler would now have five models with PHEV platforms. ·         Believes A123’s shares are fairly valued at $19, but incrementally more positive on Chrysler’s ENVI roadmap 2009-11-05T13:43:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/bachman_sees_chrysler_announcement_as_a_potential_positive_for_a123_nasdaqa/#When:13:43:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/sMJVqjU6ms0/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_maintains_solarworld_at_outperform_after_pre_announc/#When:13:35:00Z November 5, 2009 – Mark Bachman weighed in on SolarWorld’s (SWV.DE) pre-reported Q3 financial results, noting that both revenue and EBIT came in below expectations with revenue of €232.5 million, EBIT of €34.7 million and net income at €16 million. ASPs declined by about 12% in Q3, volumes increased by 15%and sales were up 3%. Key Takeaways ·         SolarWorld’s stated revenue target of €1 billion for FY09 will require Q4 sequential growth to approach 60%, and channel checks into Germany suggest that may be difficult to achieve. ·         Modeling 2009 in line with management’s target, but reduced gross and EBIT margin expectations given ASP concerns. ·         New price target is €18, which is 15x 2010 EPS estimate ·         Rates stock at OUTPERFORM 2009-11-05T13:35:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_maintains_solarworld_at_outperform_after_pre_announc/#When:13:35:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/ul0gTjoBvMs/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_rob_stone_maintains_neutral_on_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_ahead_of_r/#When:14:09:00Z November 4, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Robert Stone weighed in this morning on Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) noting that the company may report a narrower loss than he had modeled, citing strong demand in Europe  and possible upside to shipments. He maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock. Key Takeaways ·         Still sees pressure on ASPs in 2010 which may make conversion costs uncompetitive ($1.65 at Devens and $1.17 at Wuhan while vertically integrated competitors in China are close to $0.80) ·         Targeting cost/watt of $2 in Devens (Q4:09 if fully ramped) and $1.50 in Wuhan (by year-end 2010); long-term cost/watt target of $1 in 2012 ·         Sees potential upside to model of $.10 loss on $73.8M in revenue due to better results at Sovello ·         Believes risk/reward remains unfavorable and maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock 2009-11-04T14:09:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_rob_stone_maintains_neutral_on_evergreen_solar_nasdaqeslr_ahead_of_r/#When:14:09:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/VqC5mjtOipI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/think_equitys_woodburn_maintains_wesport_nasdaqwprt_at_buy_loweres_revenue_/#When:13:28:00Z November 4, 2009 -  Analyst Comments -  Think Equity’s David Woodburn weighed in on Westport Innovations (Nasdaq:WPRT) this morning stating that he is lowering his revenue forecast based on a reduction of estimates for heavy-duty engine volume based on near-term economic pressures on fleet purchases. He continues to rate the stock at a BUY Key Takeaways ·         Decreasing overall engine forecasts for F2010 and F2011; shifting some volume from higher-profit heavy-duty line to Cummins-Westport medium-duty line ·         FQ2 should be a non-event – expects revenue and EPS of C$27.7 million and (C$0.30) ·         “Skeptical” on odds of incentive-heavy NAT GAS legislation being passed (as written) by itself, though the odds have increased lately ·         Federal incentives to look for which could drive uptake of CNG and LNG vehicles include the DOE/Clean Cities alt fuel grants, and the NATGAS bill. ·         Nov. 6 could bring the approval of SCAQMD/CARB/Port Funding ·         Valuation - “From a comparable company perspective, we track Westport's valuation relative to similar clean energy growth companies. As many of these companies have yet to turn profitable (like Westport), we find the most-useful basis of comparison to be an Economic Value to Revenue (EV/Revenue) ratio. To be fair, with Westport, we use what we call "owned revenue," or Westport's share of revenue net of its joint venture with Cummins. We assign a multiple of 1.3x to our F2012 "owned" revenue estimate of C$266 million, with the result being a fair value of US$12/share. The 1.3x multiple matches the 1.3x average of a group of alternative energy technology companies, with the range being 0.8x to 3.5x, and is the same as the 1.2x average of engine/truck manufacturers.” 2009-11-04T13:28:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/think_equitys_woodburn_maintains_wesport_nasdaqwprt_at_buy_loweres_revenue_/#When:13:28:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/xLENpCgHOB4/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_nyseldk_and_q_cells_qcede_terminated_supply_agreement_our_take/#When:12:02:01Z November 3, 2009 – Yesterday’s announcement from Q-Cells (QCE.DE) and LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) that Q-Cells trying to terminate a 10-year supply deal highlights a serious problem for the solar sector which it continues to work through. Back in 2007 and early 2008 these long-term supply deals were so attractive, providing long-term visibility and massive backlogs to solar firms. They drove the markets and it sounded great to be able to announce multi-hundred million dollar deals. The problem is that the economics shifted (oversupply, tight credit markets) and the terms became totally unattractive (prices today are so much cheaper than the long-term price schedules for the supply agreements) so companies are trying to back out. This is not a surprise to anyone and most of the competent analysts were focused on this risk back in mid-2008, which is a key reason why solar companies pulled back to 1x book valuations. But the news still stings, and when firms pull out of these agreements it is seen almost as an indictment on the supplier for not being able to renegotiate terms. We have seen similar issues with Hoku, JA Solar, REC etc. The problem in this case with LDK is that it compounds the uncertainty that has been building since the company announced its VP of Manufacturing resigned – who was charged with leading the build-out of the poly facility.  It isn’t a surprising move for Q-Cells given that the company has been absolutely cash-challenged and hasn’t been showing any signs of resilience lately. There have been expectations that the company is going to need to do something strategic, and it looks like they have played their first cards. I am inclined to sell some puts on LDK into further weakness – and will keep you posted. Here is the news: Q-CELLS TO RECLAIM USD 244.5M FROM LDK SOLAR AS 10-YEAR SUPPLY DEAL GOES SOUR  02 Nov 2009 / Solar / TOP STORIES / GermanyGerman PV cell maker Q-Cells says it is terminating a 10-year supply contract with Chinese wafer maker LDK Solar and is aiming to reclaim USD 244.5m of payments.The two companies signed a supply contract in 2007 by which LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) would deliver more than 6GW of solar wafers to Q-Cells over a 10-year period starting in 2009. The deal was based on 43,000 tonnes of silicon from 2009 through to 2018 and for 1,000 tonnes of silicon this year.  Q-Cells (Deutsche Bourse: QCE) says the two companies agreed that the price would be set based on the cost of silicon plus a processing fee but that to be able to specify the price LDK would have to have either a separate facility or a separate line dedicated to the production for Q-Cells. However, LDK failed to separate the production and Q-Cells rejected the price quoted by LDK. LDK was not immediately available for comment. The two companies disagree on the termination of the contract and neither direct discussions nor a parallel arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris have resulted in a settlement.  Q-Cells made an advance payment of USD 244.5m back in early 2008 when there was a shortage of polysilicon in order to secure the deliveries. The payment was secured by a bank guarantee at a German bank and now that the deal has gone sour, Q-Cells wants to reclaim the money. The German manufacturer says that an application by LDK Solar for a temporary injunction against a drawing down of the bank guarantee was refused by the District Court in Berlin and that Q-Cells would make use of the possibility to draw down the bank guarantee linked to the payment. LDK Solar shares traded down 13.4% on the news and Q-Cells shares dropped 3.3%. Important Disclosure: This information is intended to assist investors.  The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice.  Any such offer, if made, will only be made by means of a confidential prospectus or offering memorandum or management agreement.  It is not our intention to state, indicate or imply in any manner that current or past results are indicative of future results or expectations.  As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing.  Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment. 2009-11-03T12:02:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_nyseldk_and_q_cells_qcede_terminated_supply_agreement_our_take/#When:12:02:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/MwgWnELQ3aI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/first_solar_nasdaqfslr_selling_off_on_q3_results_bachman_and_stone_weigh_in/#When:14:56:00Z October 29, 2009 – First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) is getting hammered this morning after reporting Q3 results yesterday after the close. The company reported revenues of $480.9 million, compared with $525.9 million in Q2 and $348.7 million for the same period last year. Net income was $153.3 million, or $1.79 per share,  compared with $180.6 million in Q2 and $99.3 million for the same period last year. Management said it expects full year fiscal 2009 revenue at the updated guidance range of $1.975 to $2.025 billion, which is at the high end of the previously provided guidance range. Amongst analysts weighing in on First Solar’s report, are Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman and Cowen’s Robert Stone. Bachman’s Key Takeaways ·         Revenue miss was due to lack of module sales “despite management giving away more than $60 million in price concessions in Q3.” Bachman estimates only 272MW of modules were counted as revenue in Q3 vs. modeled estimate of 330MW. ·         Costs were higher than estimated, at $0.85/watt, resulting in lower revenue/watt at $1.74 ASP. The lone bright spot was net income margin of 31.9%. ·         “On top of the reasons stated in our October 12 downgrade, we can now pile on a meaningful miss in Q3, weak guidance for Q4, and another EPS estimate cut to both 2009 and 2010. At our new 2010 EPS estimate, the shares are fully valued.” ·         Rates the stock at SECTOR PERFORM Stone’s Key Takeaways ·         Shares  are likely to be depressed near-term (below $130) but  believes FSLR remains attractive, with 40%+ upside potential relative to the market in 12-months. ·         Module margins should be relatively stable ·          Raised 2010E shipments about 5% based on higher line throughput but believes FSLR needs more capacity ·          Rates the stock at OUTPERFORM 2009-10-29T14:56:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/first_solar_nasdaqfslr_selling_off_on_q3_results_bachman_and_stone_weigh_in/#When:14:56:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/WpIndtCHb_w/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/stone_maintains_outperform_rating_on_first_solar_nasdaqfslr_ahead_of_report/#When:12:28:00Z October 28, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Rob Stone reiterated his OUTPERFORM rating on First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) this morning, noting that he expects Q3 results above the Street. He sees 30%+ upside in FSLR relative to the market in 12 months, but sees more chance than not of a post quarter pullback. Key Takeaways ·         Q3 should beat – expects results to be aided by slower ASP erosion and not much impact of rebates ·         Doesn’t see much room to raise expectations in H2 ·         Sees continued growth in Germany, despite near-term uncertain relating to FIT reductions 2009-10-28T12:28:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/stone_maintains_outperform_rating_on_first_solar_nasdaqfslr_ahead_of_report/#When:12:28:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/q8UNZZZn9NU/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_reiterates_sector_perform_on_rec_after_earnings_repo/#When:12:27:00Z October 28, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman weighed in on REC’s (REC.OL) Q3 results, noting that they were worse than expected and reiterated his rating on the stock of SECTOR PERFORM. Q3 Results  REC reported Q3 revenue of NOK 2,160 million in Q3, up 13% Y/Y, with EBITDA of NOK 429 million (down 40% Y/Y). Management said the significant decline in EBITDA mainly relates to; (i) weaker market demand and reduced capacity utilization in REC Solar and REC Wafer, (ii) expansion cost and negative contribution from the ramp-up of new plants of NOK ~168 million, (iii) loss on sales and write-down of cell and module inventories of NOK ~100 million, and (iv) a further increase of the provision in REC Solar of approximately NOK 21 million for repairs of malfunctioning junction boxes. Earnings per share for the quarter was negative NOK 1.52, compared to positive NOK 2.20 in the third quarter 2008 and negative NOK 1.20 in the second quarter 2009. Key Takeaways ·         Q3 results were below Pacific Crest and consensus estimates. The company’s citing of weak demand was surprising given many of its competitors have noted recent strength – especially in Germany. ·         Headwinds to Q3 performance included reduced capacity utilization, ramp-up costs, cell inventory write-downs, junction box issues and lower ASPs. Bachman thinks many of these problems will persist into Q4 and that the worst is not over for REC ·         REC removed targeted poly production output guidance of 9,000MT after producing only 1,616MT in Q3 ·         Bachman’s F2009 estimate is for 7,400MW, down from 9,000MT ·         Management expects Y/Y module ASP declines of 35% ·         Bachman lowered Q4 wafer ASP estimate to reflect near-term price breaks REC will offer customers ·         Remains “cautious” on shares of REC. Believes in long-term market position following eventual full ramp of Moses Lake poly facility but “there remain too many moving parts for us to recommend shares” at current levels. ·         At 12x new FY10 EPS estimate of NOK 2.96, believes shares are fairly valued at current levels. 2009-10-28T12:27:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/pacific_crests_bachman_reiterates_sector_perform_on_rec_after_earnings_repo/#When:12:27:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/lGdIDrPDaFI/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_comments_on_solar_sector_underperformance/#When:12:25:00Z October 28, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Cowen’s Rob Stone commented on the solar sector this morning noting that “We are puzzled by recent stock action in the solar group.” He said “H2 demand should support much better momentum and less seasonality entering 2010 than seen in H1:09, and upcoming German and Italian policy changes appear unlikely to be disruptive.”  He reiterated his OUTPERFORM rating on First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL). Key Takeaways ·         Demand from southern Europe appears strong ·         Meeting with TSL suggested Q4:09 and Q1:10 could exceed expectations ·         JA Solar (Nasdaq:JASO) also indicated Q3 sequential growth above +60% guidance ·         New products are focused on reducing balance of systems costs – STP Reliathon system for utility scale; SPWRA’s T5 integrated module and mounting system; Energy Conversion Devices’s tilted rack are a few examples. 2009-10-28T12:25:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_comments_on_solar_sector_underperformance/#When:12:25:00Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/kLd29CqCxsA/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_solar_nyseldk_raises_q3_guidance/#When:12:37:01Z October 27, 2009 – LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) raised guidance for the Q3, expecting revenues in a range of $270 to $290 million, on wafer shipments between 310MW to 330MW and module shipments between 5MW and 10MW. Prior guidance was for revenue between $240 and $270 million, wafer shipments between 260MW and 300MW and module shipments of 10MW to 20MW. The update is being received positively this morning and the stock is trading up. Cowen’s Raj Seth, who rates the stock at NEUTRAL, said “we are encouraged by these announcements, but remain cautious on the stock given uncertainty about internal poly production and LDK’s weak balance sheet.” 2009-10-27T12:37:01-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_solar_nyseldk_raises_q3_guidance/#When:12:37:01Z http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/xEuR7tW-568/ http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_solar_nyseldk_raises_q3_guidance1/#When:12:37:00Z October 27, 2009 – LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) raised guidance for the Q3, expecting revenues in a range of $270 to $290 million, on wafer shipments between 310MW to 330MW and module shipments between 5MW and 10MW. Prior guidance was for revenue between $240 and $270 million, wafer shipments between 260MW and 300MW and module shipments of 10MW to 20MW. The update is being received positively this morning and the stock is trading up. Cowen’s Raj Seth, who rates the stock at NEUTRAL, said “we are encouraged by these announcements, but remain cautious on the stock given uncertainty about internal poly production and LDK’s weak balance sheet.” 2009-10-27T12:37:00-08:00 http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/ldk_solar_nyseldk_raises_q3_guidance1/#When:12:37:00Z