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  <title>Boris Smus</title>
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  <updated>2022-12-12T10:18:41-00:00</updated>
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  <entry>
    <title>Impossible Owls by Brian Phillips</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/impossible-owls-by-brian-phillips"/>
    
    <updated>2022-12-10T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/impossible-owls-by-brian-phillips</id>
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        <p>It's hard to call these essays, because they have a tinge of magic to them, despite appearing to be completely factual. It's as if the fictional genre of magical realism has somehow found its non-fiction counterpart? Anyway, as A says, the boundary between fiction and non-fiction is overrated.</p>

<p>Enough philosophizing! I enjoyed this collection of essays, my favorite of which seem to include a lot of Brian Phillips' personal reflection as well as intense and interesting travelogues. The essays I enjoyed most evoked a strong feeling of I want to go to there. Like, maybe it's time to finally visit Alaska and do some backpacking around ~~McKinley~~ Denali? And yes, I'm definitely overdue for another Japan trip, and maybe I should try watching Star Trek TNG again, and how is it that I haven't seen the Soviet Tale of Tales cartoon? (Update: I did, and it was good.)</p>

<p>Part of what is appealing is how immersive the essays are, and the comprehensive picture that is painted in so short a passage. It feels like I’ve been there and back! This is helped by the fact that Phillips is a talented author, eg:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>But the bureaucrats seized it from the priests years ago and, exercising their own power of transubstantiation, made it into something else. Now it is a puppet workshop that only happens to look like a church: in the same way that Eucharist blood once happened to taste like wine.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>and:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>England pulls the sea around her like a mantle: these waters our robe of ermine, these stars our imperial crown. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Another observation: Phillips is clearly from the internet, which shines through in the way he writes. But this does not detract from his writing, instead it somehow legitimates writers from very online culture I know so well.</p>

<p>I did find that there was some unevenness to the quality of the essays. Some of them didn't leave an impression at all, and some I thought were just weaker than others. I found the UFO essay to be a bit too unfocused, a mishmash of cultural tropes and Americana. My theory is that Phillips' own experience really add to the essays, and this was not always present. In other cases, the topics were too far from my interest.</p>

<p>A pointers to follow: Robert Service poems about Alaska &amp; co... pretty good, eg. <a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46643/the-spell-of-the-yukon">The Spell of the Yukon</a></p>

<blockquote>
  <p>No! There’s the land. (Have you seen it?)
     It’s the cussedest land that I know,
   From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it
     To the deep, deathlike valleys below.</p>
</blockquote>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>The Timeless Way of Building</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-timeless-way-of-building"/>
    
    <updated>2022-11-28T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/the-timeless-way-of-building</id>
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        <p>The built world is defined by a small number of patterns, which keep repeating over and over and over again. The patterns are deep and mostly relational. This applies at all scales in human construction: to American cities, Gothic cathedrals, Paris, Chinese kitchens, doors, and so on.</p>

<p>These patterns can be codified into a pattern language. And just like a great writer or orator has an intuitive grasp of human language, a great builder can and should strive to attain an intuitive grasp of his pattern language.</p>

<p>But just because you have a pattern language does not make it good. A concrete jungle is also governed by a pattern language. Alexander strives to capture a collection of patterns that create a microcosm that has "The Quality Without a Name", which he defines via negativa (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Negative_theology_and_via_negativa">Negative theology and via negativa</a>). Here's a quick summary:</p>

<p><img src="/assets/qwan.jpg" alt="The Quality Without a Name" /></p>

<p>Subsequent books in the series present lists of specific patterns at various scale levels (eg. town, building, substructure) that Alexander wholeheartedly endorses.</p>

<h2>Tired: things I didn't love 😫</h2>

<ul>
<li>Stuffy tone
<ul>
<li>Exacerbated by the narrator's proper English accent in the audio book.</li>
<li>Dry prose. If I had a nickel for every "pattern of events" in some of those middle chapters...!</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Overly universalist
<ul>
<li>The Quality Without A Name is supposed to span time and space. It's timeless, as per the title of the book, but this pomposity is the opposite of the egoless ideal.</li>
<li>Alexander makes sweeping claims like whether a pattern language is alive or dead is necessarily objective.</li>
<li>QWAN has a strong “you’ll know it when you see it” vibe. Alexander is really appealing to some imagined sense of universal taste.</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Opinionated and tending negative
<ul>
<li>About architecture, including modern star architects, nature-inspired architects like Frank Lloyd Wright.</li>
<li>About specialization in general</li>
<li>About materials that tend to last forever like concrete and metal. They are inherently not alive.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>

<h2>Wired: things I loved 💗💗💗</h2>

<ul>
<li>The specific patterns found in the second volume "A Pattern Language", especially pertaining to buildings. I'd never thought of many of them, and now find myself viewing buildings through this patterned lens.</li>
<li>Every living thing is the product of a process. There is no way to creates a living thing by some direct process.</li>
<li>Trying to define QWAN as an overlap of many attributes, where none of the attributes on its own adequately describe it. Reminds me of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Negative_theology_and_via_negativa">Negative theology and via negativa</a></li>
<li>One of the attributes of QWAN is "Being Alive", which although vague is evocative. Design must be done with the idea of death. Nothing can be alive unless it can become dead (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Momento_mori">Momento mori</a>).</li>
<li>Only about 5% of buildings are designed by architects. The vast majority are constructed by following relatively simple patterns and rules.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Inspired: threads to pull on ✨🧵✨</h2>

<ul>
<li>It's difficult to describe what constitutes a rough circle. A precise circle is easy to quantify. It is the locus of points that are equidistant from a center. But naively defining a rough circle as some locus of connected points 5 to 6 cm away from a certain point might include zigzags, polygons, or other shapes that are totally not circle-like.
<ul>
<li>How would I algorithmically generate a rough circle? Sounds like a fun side project or interview question.</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Alexander leans heavily on the environment as something that is critical for happiness. It does not come from within. I liked that he acknowledges that this is an untrendy claim to make, and explicitly defends his position. How much happiness comes from the self, and how much from the environment?</li>
<li>What are the pattern languages for 1940-59 builds in Seattle? What about the 1910 eta craftsmen? How about new modern builds going up now?</li>
<li>Can these design patterns be used to consider whether existing buildings are good? I am judging my house and my parents house from this vantage point.</li>
<li>What are the buildings and building patterns I like most?
<ul>
<li>In PYNY's house: great benches integrated into windowsills.</li>
<li>I took notes on this too, see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Design_Pattern_Languages_for_Single_Family_Homes">Design Pattern Languages for Single Family Homes</a>.</li>
<li>Can this be somehow adapted when considering what to look for in a new house? It's a bit like Marie Kondo's "do these underwear spark joy" question. Evocative but also silly.</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Alexander implores us to design without drawing plans. Keep the whole project plan in the mind as you conceive it to be maximally flexible. As you add new patterns to the design, the whole system may need to morph, so any representation other than that of the mind's eye is too inflexible. This seems too extreme, but also somehow appealing.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Power of Ritual by Casper ter Kuile</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-power-of-ritual-by-casper-ter-kuile"/>
    
    <updated>2022-10-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/the-power-of-ritual-by-casper-ter-kuile</id>
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        <p>Ritual is closely associated with an ancient monolithic tradition, but Casper ter Kuile encourages us to cherry-pick the good parts from many traditions, and reconstruct your own rituals. At times, the book gives off obnoxious self-help vibes, other times it came off as overly woke. Overall, I'm pretty sure it was ghost written by a slightly flamboyant gay alien who just landed on Earth.</p>

<p>I am thankful that I personally don't need to reinvent rituals rom scratch, as I find myself firmly rooted in the Jewish tradition. In this tradition, rituals are glorified as an end in themselves (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Jewish_tradition_of_doing_first_and_understanding_later_-_na'aseh_v'nishma">Jewish tradition of doing first and understanding later - na'aseh v'nishma</a>). But I'm way too skeptical to embrace the whole canon wholesale.
That said, I'm much more inclined to ground myself in some traditional basis and make modifications, rather than start from "first principles". In Rationalist circles, unmoored by any traditional or religious foundation, solstice celebrations are fully made up. The result is inspiring in some ways, but also feel cringeworthy and a little bit fraudulent.</p>

<p>This book inspired me to start a journalling practice, and incorporate aspects of "prayer" into it. Also, I've implemented tech sabbath, which kicks in automatically on my devices from Friday 6pm to Saturday 6pm.</p>

<p>Here are my (slightly sanitized) notes on the book:</p>

<h1>Sacred reading and Lectio Divina</h1>

<p>I found value in the sacred reading idea that ter Kuile outlines, and appreciated his breakdown of various kinds of reading. The crux of the sacred practice is to read a text but then address questions that are far more broad ranging than the text as written. As an example of how far this practice can be stretched, ter Kuile points to his <a href="https://www.harrypottersacredtext.com/">Harry Potter and the Sacred Text</a> podcast.</p>

<p>Adapted from Lectio Divina, here are four levels of analysis of a sacred text:</p>

<ol>
<li>Literal content: what is happening?</li>
<li>Allegorical content: what is this alluding to, what is the bigger meaning?</li>
<li>Personal reflection: what does this evoke in your personal experience?</li>
<li>Action: what do you want to do about it?</li>
</ol>

<p>Lectio Divina comes from Christian tradition, but there are similar traditions in other cultures. In the Jewish tradition, ḥavruta is a study group structure often practiced in Yeshivas.</p>

<h1>A modern dearth of celebrations</h1>

<p>The author suggests insightfully that the reason that weddings are so overblown is to compensate for a dearth of rituals in our daily lives. In the mainstream west, there are no more harvest festivals, no real Easter celebrations, and not much for Christmas either.</p>

<p>The religious and spiritual calendar tends to follow a yearly cycle. Casper thinks we should embrace that more. There is something comforting about this cyclical nature, although it’s not a strict repetition of prior celebrations. The world changes, and you yourself change in some direction, leading to a spiral-like progression.</p>

<p>I am reminded of Rabbi Heschel's take on "Jewish time" and its emphasis on celebrating historical events as part of the yearly cadence. This, by the way, is from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Notes_on_The_Sabbath_by_Heschel">Notes on The Sabbath by Heschel</a> which I am reading next.</p>

<h1>Connecting with nature</h1>

<p>A few lenses when connecting with nature:</p>

<ol>
<li>Nature is a resource for humans to exploit for our own purposes.</li>
<li>Nature is to be avoided. We should get away from it as far as possible.</li>
<li>Nature is like a lover.</li>
<li>We are part of nature not distinct from it.</li>
</ol>

<p>Perspectives one and two are dominant in our culture. Three I didn't quite understand, but I resonate with four.</p>

<p>A common worldview sees animals and plants as "individual sacks". In fact, the skin of a thing ecologically speaking much more like a pond surface than a sack or a shell. The author describes this as "delicate interpenetration", which is evocative if a bit disgusting. I strongly resonate with the idea of mutual interdependence, and the elation and suffering which is to be found in nature. Shared laughter and shared suffering is critical for community. Also see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Two_types_of_fun,_type_1_and_type_2">Two types of fun, type 1 and type 2</a>.</p>

<p>A technique: verbalize the landscape from its perspective. “I am the pond and the pond is me”</p>

<h1>A modern take on prayer</h1>

<p>Prayer can be viewed as way to getting yourself to verbalize how you truly feel. It feels reductive to use prayer as a journaling technique, but also really intriguing.</p>

<p>Four steps prayer framework:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Decentering</strong>: stop thinking about your individual experience, and refocus on the profound.</li>
<li><strong>Contrition</strong>: what have I done that I shouldn’t have? Where have I gone astray? Incidentally this is all of Yom Kippur.</li>
<li><strong>Thanksgiving</strong>: give thanks for being alive. For the body, for health and people and meaning and joy. Recognize that the goodness comes from without, outside ourselves.</li>
<li><strong>Supplication</strong>: what one thinks about when one thinks of prayer: making requests. One approach is to sequence it, repeating three intentions. (1) Self, (2) someone we love or a stranger, (3) someone with whom you’re struggling (from Jack Kornfield)</li>
</ol>

<p>Unless a pretty literal god exists, this sort of prayer will not work directly to change the world. But it can change you. Why Journal?</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Talk about who you are, and who you wish to become. Talk about what matters most. Unless we speak the truth, we will forget what we want to stay loyal to.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Rhymes so much with the C. S. Lewis' Inner Circle and John Boyd's "To be somebody or to do something".</p>

<h1>Random</h1>

<ul>
<li>Spiritual music I should revisit: Arvo Pärt - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ6Mzvh3XCc">Spiegel im Spiegel</a></li>
<li>Beyond Monteverdi: Jacobus Clemens non Papa wrote some dope choral music, including a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLRgLM0HHek">bunch of motets</a>.</li>
<li>Simone Weil wrote that god and prayer can be found in the most surprising places, like in a <a href="https://www.wabashcenter.wabash.edu/2018/08/simone-weil-on-study-prayer-and-love/">geometry problem</a>.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Semantic Similarity for Note Taking</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/semantic-similarity-note-taking"/>
    
    <updated>2022-10-13T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/semantic-similarity-note-taking</id>
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        <p>Days after capturing a "new" insight, it can be humbling to realize that you are
repeating yourself. This might not be a bad thing, as you mull over a complex
idea in its various forms over the course of many weeks. But what if your note
taking app could act as a co-pilot? It could surface similar notes that are
relevant to your current writing, and if you use such a system for long enough,
help you synthesize across your own thinking over many years. You might want to
link to the semantically related note, or to merge with it entirely. Building on
<a href="/ai-note-garden-linker">a previous technique</a>, I implemented this idea as an
Obsidian plugin:</p>

<iframe width="560" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kZkDCjr8ZqU?controls=0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<!--more-->

<p>I'm pleased with the result. It's nice to feel like my note taking software is
actively trying to help me reconnect with past selves. Whether this ultimately
proves to be useful remains to be seen, but it works well enough that I plan to
run this as a self-experiment over the next few months.</p>

<p>My <a href="/ai-note-garden-linker">first stab</a> at this problem generated a list of
related notes across the whole corpus using semantic similarity. But my
implementation had two fundamental limitations:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Time</strong>: My script ran at night, so that there was long delay between
repeating myself and learning about this fact.</li>
<li><strong>Space</strong>: It generated a list of similar notes in a separate text file which
I would rarely consult.</li>
</ol>

<p>By building this as an Obsidian plugin, I addressed both fundamental problems in
the time and the space continuum!</p>

<ol>
<li>The current paragraph is continuously fed into a semantic similarity model,
so that movement of the cursor or textual edits trigger updates in
real-time.</li>
<li>Similar excerpts are presented in a dedicated sidebar, allowing you to
see related notes and excerpts right away.</li>
</ol>

<h1>How is this implemented?</h1>

<p>The current implementation has two parts:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Indexer</strong> is a script that runs nightly, generating per-paragraph
embeddings for each note in the corpus. These embeddings and other metadata
are then saved as JSON.</li>
<li><strong>Obsidian plugin</strong> generates embeddings for any text within Obsidian, and
then compares the result to the pre-generated embeddings.</li>
</ol>

<p>Both plugins use exactly the same embedding model to guarantee that the
embedding mappings are identical. The one running inside Obsidian must use
JavaScript, and I've already been using <a href="https://github.com/tensorflow/tfjs-models/tree/master/universal-sentence-encoder">Universal Sentence Encoder
lite</a>
for <a href="https://github.com/google-research/usnea">other projects</a>. For simplicity
and to guarantee identical outputs, I built the indexer using the same exact
model, running in node.js using tfjs-node. My previous python implementation of
this used a <a href="https://tfhub.dev/google/universal-sentence-encoder-large/">slightly larger model of
USE</a>.</p>

<p>The plugin works as follows:</p>

<ol>
<li>Find the currently active text: if there's an active editor, find the
paragraph at the current cursor position. If there's a selection, use the
selected text.</li>
<li>Extract its semantic similarity embedding, which in the case of USE is a
512-dimensional vector.</li>
<li>Compare its embedding to the rest of the embeddings for every other excerpt
in the corpus, which is saved as an Nx512 matrix. Comparison here is a matrix
multiplication, the result of which is a vector of scores corresponding to
the similarity of the source excerpt with each of the N excerpt.</li>
<li>Find the top K scores and their corresponding excerpt.</li>
<li>Display the resulting notes and excerpts.</li>
</ol>

<h1>Running this in a web worker</h1>

<p>Doing the above steps takes time. On my laptop it takes a second to generate
embeddings, and another half second to do the multiplication and ranking. This
will of course vary depending on your hardware and note corpus size. But even in
my relatively favorable conditions, the resulting latency of a couple seconds is
far too long to be doing this kind of work on the UI thread, which is the
default behavior of tf.js in the Electron environment of the Obsidian plugin. I
sought and found a workaround, which is to run <a href="https://erdem.pl/2020/02/making-tensorflow-js-work-faster-with-web-workers">tf.js in a web
worker</a>,
in CPU mode. This slows execution by about 50%, but is totally worth it to make
the plugin usable in real life.</p>

<h1>Toward standalone indexing</h1>

<p>I'd love for the plugin to run standalone without the need for a separate
indexer. This would allow others to use it far more easily without requiring
them to setup a whole indexing <a href="/file-systems-for-thought/">system</a>.</p>

<p>Implementing indexing within the plugin, I ran into memory issues computing
embeddings for my whole corpus. I haven't yet found the time to dig in to why
this was not a problem for the tfjs-node implementation of the indexer.</p>

<p>Before I seek workarounds, I want to live with the experience first. Is the
plugin useful for navigating my note corpus? Do the excerpts it surfaces make
sense as I'm writing a new note? Is the constantly changing semantic sidebar too
distracting? Let's find out; ƒor science!</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Toynbee Convector by Ray Bradbury</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-toynbee-convector-by-ray-bradbury"/>
    
    <updated>2022-10-10T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>I picked up this volume after reading The Toynbee Convector and really enjoying it. I'm surprised Ray Bradbury wrote so much horror and so little science fiction. Perhaps it's selection bias in this volume? Here are a few stories that really stood out to me:</p>

<ul>
<li><p><strong>Let Me Remind You of Why We Are Here</strong>: resonates strongly on a personal level, exploring the nuances in communication between parents and children at various stages of that relationship.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Trapdoor</strong>: a slightly loony story about monsters in the attic. Creeepy and surprisingly compelling, very far from my usual taste.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>The Last Circus</strong>: Ominous and timely once more.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Banshee</strong>: Another horror tale that I enjoyed. He had it coming.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Bless me Father, For I have Sinned</strong>: who blesses the givers of blessings?</p></li>
<li><p><strong>A Touch of Petulance</strong>: Relationships are so complex. A self fulfilling time travel tragedy.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Come, and Bring Constance</strong>: Cute story with multiple possible interpretations.</p></li>
</ul>

<p>I also really liked the titular story. Here's the basic premise: Craig Bennet Stiles travels a century into the future and returns with detailed descriptions and photographs of a bright future in which all of humanity's problems have been solved. This gives people hope in a hopeless world much like our own:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>You name it, we had it. The economy was a snail. The world was a cesspool. Economies remained an insolvable mystery. Melancholy was the attitude. The impossibility of change was the vogue. End of the world was the slogan.
  ...a fifth horseman, worse than all the rest rode with them: Despair, wrapped in dark shrouds of defeat, crying only repetitions of past disasters, present failures, future cowardices.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>There is of course a giant twist which I will leave out, out of respect for you, dear reader. But you might piece together where things are going anyway.</p>

<p>Overall I loved it. One remarkable thing is that this is a truly consistent time travel story, no caveats. It left a strong impression on me and reified the power of positive visions (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Positive_visions_are_necessary">Positive visions are necessary</a>).</p>

<p>Stray thoughts still linger:</p>

<ul>
<li><p>Fake it 'till you make it is almost trite, but how much 'faking it' is too much?</p></li>
<li><p>How much credence to give Toynbee's idea that "any group, any race, any world that did not run to seize the future and shape it was doomed to dust away to the grave, in the past"?</p></li>
<li><p>Is Stiles a science fiction writer? So many technological efforts are inspired by fiction, even dystopian fiction (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Dystopian_fiction_that_inspires_real_products">Dystopian fiction that inspires real products</a>). In this light, this is a pretty self serving story, Mr. Bradbury!</p></li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Links for September 2022</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/links-for-september-2022/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-09-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <ul>
<li><a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-russia-execute-gas-pivot-asia">Can Russia Execute a Gas Pivot to Asia?</a> (<em>CSIS</em>) — Shines a light on some difficulties Russia will be facing as it tries to send most of its gas exports east rather than west, including the challenge of breaking into a brand new market full of much larger players, the need to build new pipelines, all while selling its product at a discounted rate.</li>
<li><a href="https://mollyg.substack.com/p/addition-vs-subtraction">Addition vs Subtraction</a> (<em>Molly Graham</em>) — Graham argues that corporations (like people) tend to add new processes, and rarely remove existing ones, which leads to a steady march towards the overly complicated. Rather than simply complain, Molly offers some interesting ideas for combating this trend, like declaring a yearly calendar jubilee, or for large companies to hire a full-time employee dedicated to looking for things to stop doing.</li>
<li><a href="http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/05/09/not-so-wicked/">Not So Wicked</a> (<em>Tetradian</em>) — Tom Graves digs into the term "wicked problem", which in contrast to tame or kind problems do not have a definite answer, and are highly complex. He prefers the term "wild problem", which is also the term Russ Roberts uses in his eponymous book.</li>
<li><a href="https://skamille.medium.com/opp-other-peoples-problems-d7eb174724ee">Other People's Problems</a> (<em>Camille Fournier</em>) — Fournier emphasizes the importance of picking your battles in a corporate setting, and underscores just how difficult solving problems is, especially if they have a cultural element. "There’s always going to be something you can’t fix."</li>
<li><a href="https://mysticalsilicon.substack.com/p/on-extending-human-understanding">On Extending Human Understanding of Animal Sensory Worlds Through AI</a> (<em>David Gasca</em>) — Inspired by Ed Yong's latest book, Gasca observes that just like animals experience the world in a way that we cannot, AIs might do the same. An engaging summary of "An Immense World", which seems like a worthy read.</li>
<li><a href="https://stratechery.com/2022/instagram-tiktok-and-the-three-trends/">Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends</a> (<em>Stratechery</em>) — Ben Thompson describes the current transition from social media where you consume content from your friends (Instagram), to algorithmic media, where you consume extremely engaging content created by others (TikTok) to a speculative near future where AI generated content is the most engaging.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.gawker.com/culture/failure-to-cope-under-capitalism">Failure to Cope "Under Capitalism"</a> (<em>Gawker</em>) — Clare Coffey criticizes the quickness with which we are prone to blaming the system rather than looking inward. Then again, I am a sucker for any call to think seriously about the good life and pursue it wholeheartedly, despite the struggles and inevitable failures along the way.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Wild Problems by Russ Roberts</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/wild-problems-by-russ-roberts"/>
    
    <updated>2022-09-22T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Despite being a famous economist, Russ Roberts has a tendency to disparage his own field for its shortcomings. His core argument is that a lot of the thinking employed by economists applies to overly simplified models along the lines of "imagine a spherical cow". In particular, Roberts focuses on so-called Wild problems, which seem to be the same as Wicked problems (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Kind_and_wicked_problems">Kind and wicked problems</a>), but usually in the personal domain. The thrust of this short book is that such problems can’t be solved in a naïve way. Who to marry, who to hire, who to befriend, whether to have children? There are many different ways to live. There are many different destinations that you may pick for yourself, and which destination to pick is often the hardest part of the exercise.</p>

<p>Much of the book is spent on dismantling Subjective Expected Utility (SEU), and reifying Herb Simon's <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Bounded_rationality">Bounded rationality</a> observations. Examples familiar to me included Darwin’s famous marry/don’t marry note and Franklins “moral algebra” where pros and cons for making a tough decision are weighed against one another and crossed out until one column is longer than the other and you have an answer. Of course, this sort of moral algebra doesn't work. Firstly, it's very hard to quantify things that matter to us. Secondly, <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Values_are_incommensurable">Values are incommensurable</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Persi Diaconis</strong> was agonizing about a decision whether or not to move to Harvard from Stanford. He had bored his friends silly with endless discussion. Finally, one of them said, “You’re one of our leading decision theorists. Maybe you should make a list of the costs and benefits and try to roughly calculate your expected utility.” Without thinking, Persi blurted out, “Come on, Sandy, this is serious.”</p>

<p><strong>The Vampire Problem</strong> I really enjoyed a new-to-me thought experiment Roberts introduces, attributing L. A. Paul, of a man deciding whether to become a vampire. A human cannot imagine what it would be like to be a vampire because they have never been a vampire. In the same way, a woman cannot imagine what it would be like to become a mother until she has become one. Becoming a mother will fundamentally change you, your priorities, your tastes. Becoming a vampire too, will make you much more interested in drinking other people's blood and avoiding the sun. Such transformations involve a leap of faith. Whether to take it is not a decision that can be made using a decision matrix or rational deliberation.</p>

<p>So even bounded rationality is of little help in such transformative situations. On paper, having children is a terrible decision. Here, Roberts appeals to novelty. Becoming a parent is like getting tickets to Shakespeare's brand new play. You get to watch it with someone you love (hopefully), and you don’t know if it’s a tragedy or a comedy. Just do it and see. It’s part of being human and living a complete life.</p>

<p><strong>Flourishing over pleasure</strong> The problem with Benjamin Franklin's moral algebra is that values are incommensurable with one another. Furthermore, comparing things from the realm of economics (eg. money, things) with values, ideals, and principles is impossible. They are in distinct categories:</p>

<ol>
<li>Things pertaining to <strong>flourishing</strong>, which tend to provide a backdrop for life spanning a long term. They form your identity.</li>
<li>Short term <strong>pleasures and pains</strong>: a nice meal, a flat tire. These are fleeting and have no long term bearing on life.</li>
</ol>

<p><strong>Prioritize your principles</strong>. From this flourishing perspective, becoming a vampire is a bad idea. Your core values will not be satisfied even though the vampire you will become will get a lot of Hedons from drinking all that delicious human blood. 🧛</p>

<p>Roberts even combines this with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Two_types_of_fun,_type_1_and_type_2">Two types of fun, type 1 and type 2</a>. You flourish from Type 2 fun, even though it may be less pleasurable in the moment.</p>

<p><strong>Aside: picking a religion</strong>: This reminds me of the Khazar decision to pick Judaism based on a utilitarian argument: choosing Christianity or Islam would put them under the authority of either Baghdad or Constantinople. Later, when Vladimir converted the Rus to Christianity, he did it on similar utilitarian grounds:
- Of the <strong>Muslim</strong> Bulgarians of the Volga the envoys reported there is no gladness among them, only sorrow and a great stench. He also reported that Islam was undesirable due to its taboo against alcoholic beverages and pork. Vladimir remarked on the occasion: "Drinking is the joy of all Rus'. We cannot exist without that pleasure."
- Ukrainian and Russian sources also describe Vladimir consulting with <strong>Jewish</strong> envoys and questioning them about their religion, but ultimately rejecting it as well, saying that their loss of Jerusalem was evidence that they had been abandoned by God.</p>

<p><strong>The Penelope problem</strong>. The secretary problem is cleverly reframed as the “Penelope problem” from the perspective of Odysseus' wife who is besieged by 108 suitors. A very PC move, Roberts. Well played! Also, it's a good reminder that the correct percentage of houses to view first is 1/e or about 38% to establish a baseline to compare the rest against.</p>

<p>“The happy hypocrite” story is ridiculous.</p>

<p>Three kinds of people:</p>

<ol>
<li>No conscience. You get a kick from hedonism.</li>
<li>Conscience and you get a kick from doing the right thing</li>
<li>No conscience. But aspiring to find one.</li>
</ol>

<h1>Things I liked less</h1>

<p>It's unclear why Roberts adopts the new terminology "wild" versus "tame" problems? It seems neatly analogous to the preexisting terminology I first saw in <a href="/books/gardener-carpenter-by-alison-gopnik/">The Gardener and The Carpenter by Alison Gopnik</a> and <a href="/books/range-by-david-epstein-audio/">Range - Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein</a>: <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Kind_and_wicked_problems">Kind and wicked problems</a>.</p>

<p>Roberts argues also that to become a vampire is unethical, which is fair enough. But then this vaguely is also mapped to being a non-parent, with an implied equivalence between vampires and non-parents, which is too extreme for my tastes.</p>

<p>In general, and I'm not sure this is avoidable, Roberts soapboxes a lot, imploring the reader to stick to his principles, fully trumping any utilitarian considerations. Ones values should always stand above the domain of economic utility. No amount of money should be enough to sway this. Reality is clearly more complex than this, and ultimately the difficult questions remain difficult.</p>

<p>Roberts' book concludes with some Vogon Poetry which seems slightly embarrassing to publish. Overall, I like the advice, but the whole thing just comes off as a little bit too much of like something that your highly intelligent but a little bit tipsy uncle would give you during a long heart-to-heart:</p>

<pre><code>Beware the urge for certainty.
The mortal lock.
The sure thing.
The lure of the bird in the hand.

Maybe once or twice, put all your eggs in one basket.
Take a chance
On romance. Ask her out. Or him.
Embrace doubt.
Go on a limb.
</code></pre>

<p>Pointers for later:</p>

<ul>
<li>The Agency of Becoming by Agnes Callard</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Forever Flowing by Vasily Grossman</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/forever-flowing-by-vasily-grossman"/>
    
    <updated>2022-09-03T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>This unfinished work begins as a novel, and ends as a scathing critique of the Soviet Union under Stalin.</p>

<p>Viewing the work from the perspective of a novel is slightly disappointing. Although the characters are compelling, the narrative arc is stunted, leaving a lot to be desired. Briefly, the emaciated Ivan returns from a 30 year stint at a gulag, only to meet his pudgy, talentless cousin Nikolai, who has made a great career for himself by being unprincipled. Ivan's wife found a new lover, and most of his friends have died in the camps. Ivan begins anew, finds a job and falls in love with a woman who eventually succumbs to cancer.</p>

<p>The narrative in this book is shadowed by Grossman's critical agenda. This work is listed as an inspiration for <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Bloodlands_by_Timothy_Snyder">Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder</a>, but adds extra color to the history described there. The strength of Grossman's work incorporates some interesting historical ideas:</p>

<ul>
<li>Arendtian "Banality of Evil" was alive and well in Soviet Russia.</li>
<li>The strong Soviet state became an end in itself, to the detriment of the people.</li>
<li>The culture of informing on your neighbors was even more terrible than I thought.</li>
<li>The situation on the ground was in some ways even worse than what was described in Snyder.</li>
<li>Stalin was Lenin's true spiritual successor because Lenin's essence was thirst for power.</li>
<li>Russia's default state over the last millenium is totalitarian unfreedom.</li>
<li>The truly radical Russian Revolution was the end of Feudalism in 1861.</li>
<li>Lenin's legacy was as a totalitarian innovator, emulated by the Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, and other less-then-lovely humans.</li>
</ul>

<p>I elaborate on each idea in what follows.</p>

<h1>Banality of Evil in Soviet Russia</h1>

<p>Ivan's cousin Nikolai Andreyevich is very good at blending in to the (terrible) times. An adaptive chameleon without serious principles, but a self-described decent man, and truly well meaning. Sure, sometimes he agrees to sign an order to punish an enemy of the people, or condemn a Jew for his treasonous poisoning of a respected party member. But these people are certainly guilty, and deserve to be punished. All in a day's work for a well respected member of society. At any rate, it's a comfortable life.</p>

<p>Yet even for Nikolai, uncertainty lingers in the background. He knows really decent Jewish doctors personally. What if some of accused are innocent? Could it be that Stalin and the party are wrong? No — unthinkable. When, upon his death, Stalin turned out to be not such an infallible leader, things got uncomfortable really quickly.</p>

<p>The pudgy wine-drinking Nikolai, with his jowls and heavyset build, contrasts starkly to his principled, emaciated cousin. Sometimes Nikolai wished he could take Ivan's place in principled opposition, even if it meant thirty years in a gulag.</p>

<p>Grossman does an impressive job of explaining and understanding various kinds of traitors against humanity. He is able to apologize on their behalf and explain their behavior from their own perspective. Judas I, II, III and IV are all good men at their core. Some are erudite scholars, some have great respect for their parents, and love their children. All of these various flavors of everyman busy informing on one another. It's just what you do.</p>

<p>Yet even towards this scum, Grossman calls for moderation lest we become Stalinists ourselves.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Подумаем. Не подумавший не казни. Подумаем не торопясь, потом уж, приговор.
  Think. Think before executing. Think, don't rush. Then later, we'll impose a sentence.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Butchers and hairdressers: Moscow in the 50s</h1>

<blockquote>
  <p>Повсюду на домах имелись одни и те же вывески: «Мясо» и «Парикмахерская». В сумерках вертикальные вывески «Мясо» горели красным огнем, вывески «Парикмахерская» светились пронзительной зеленью. Эти вывески, возникшие вместе с первыми жильцами, как бы раскрывали плотоядную суть человека. Мясо, мясо, мясо… Человек жрал мясо. Без мяса человек не мог. Здесь не было еще библиотек, театров, кино, пошивочных, не было даже больниц, аптек, школ, но сразу, тотчас же, среди камня красным огнем светилось: мясо, мясо, мясо… И тут же изумруд парикмахерских вывесок. <strong>Человек ел мясо и обрастал шерстью</strong>.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Fifty words for "informant"</h1>

<blockquote>
  <p>Да. Все течёт. Все изменяетесь. Нельзя дважды вступить в один и тот же эшелон.
  Everything flows. Everything changes. You cannot board the same gulag train twice.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>The Inuit have many words for snow. The Russians, for informing on your neighbors: клевета, стукачи, сексоты, доносчики, информаторы.</p>

<p>The greatest and most disgusting defence of this behavior was to deflect blame from the government, and attribute it to human nature itself. The baby grows into an informant organically through mothers milk. Humanity is naturally corrupt and people are either deserve to be informed on, or inform on others for personal gain. This deeply insidious position is still espoused by Russians today: a nihilism and fundamental pessimism about human nature. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Russia's_strategy_is_sowing_cynicism">Russia's strategy is sowing cynicism</a>.</p>

<p>This deflection was effective. Many gulag denizens believed in their own innocence (a clerical error) while insisting that the system was working as intended. Surely de-kulakification doesn’t just happen to hard working peasants. Those slackers deserved it!</p>

<p>In fact, the government was directly to blame. Not informing was potentially punishable by jail time. You could get ten years for NOT reporting on your friends. Women were often the main victims here, as wives would get ten year sentences for not reporting on their husbands. The more prominent the man taken to the gulag, the more women in his sphere would get taken away to women's camps: his mother, his wife, his sisters, his daughters.</p>

<p>Woman’s camps totally terrifying. Women would get ten year sentences for not reporting on their husbands. Prominent husbands would cause more women around them to get sent away to camps.</p>

<p>Stalin's system pre-emptively punished potential criminals. Those that were jailed and sent away weren’t usually guilty of any real opposition, merely belonged to some group that might tend, in the right circumstances, to have a higher probability to oppose the government. A terrifyingly high modernist stance, straight from Minority Report.</p>

<p>After Nikita Khrushchev dismantled Stalin's cult of personality, there were no consequences for those informants that did it for personal gain. All of the blame was attributed instead on Stalin personally, not on the system underlying the brutal famines and repressions.</p>

<h1>Atrocities beyond "Bloodlands"</h1>

<p>During the famines of 1932-33, NKVD checkpoints on roads prevented Kulaks starving in the villages from leaving. Many desperate enough to try to flee through the swamps met their deaths in the wilderness.</p>

<p>A PR campaign raged to try to conceal the famine from the population at large, but many city dwellers knew anyway and passengers on the Kiev-Odessa express would throw food out of their windows when traveling through famished Bloodlands so that villagers could scavenge for scraps near the train tracks after the train passed. Again, the authorities intervened and installed guards to lock car windows when passing through starving regions.</p>

<p>As the famine eased and villagers were able to claw their way back into the cities, Grossman vividly describes bread lines were unlike any other. A line of people, each hugging the person in front to ensure their place oscillated like a wave. Every hungry stumble created a ripple through the line, but it stood firm. I found this image of emaciated people, clinging on for dear life and howling from hunger visceral and terrifying.</p>

<h1>The strong state, an end in itself</h1>

<p>Those faithful to the original bolshevik vision of international communism became unnecessary ideologues for Stalin. When the tides shifted and the idea of the Comintern fell out of favor, the old internationalist dogs needed to be put down. How to best do this? Declare them enemies. Hence the Stalinist repressions of 1937-39. Stalin was tired of this entourage of useless old dogs following him around, so he simply murdered them, at scale.</p>

<p>The soviet state was purportedly created for the benefit of the people: the workers, the farmers. A strong state was established as a means to achieve this end, but sometime in the early decades of the Soviet Union, the original goal was forgotten. Over time, the means became the end. For Stalin, crushing a few million people became the new means to the real end: a strong state.</p>

<h1>Stalin as Lenin's true spiritual successor</h1>

<p>Grossman quotes a <a href="http://esenin-lit.ru/esenin/text/lenin-2.htm">Yesenin's "Lenin"</a>, evoking the dark image of encasing Lenin's legacy in concrete:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Его уж нет!
  А те, кто вживе,
  А те, кого оставил он,
  Страну в бушующем разливе
  Должны заковывать в бетон.
  Для них не скажешь:
  "Ленин умер!"
  Их смерть к тоске не привела...
  Еще суровей и угрюмей
  Они творят его дела.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Who, asks Grossman rhetorically, should be Lenin's successor? Would it be the brilliant, turbulent, magnificent Trostky? The charming, gifted political theorist Bukharin? Perhaps the one closest to the workers Rykov? Maybe the well educated, confident, and sophisticated governor Kamenev? Last but not least, the one best versed in international labor, Zinovyev?</p>

<p>All of these men embodied aspects of Lenin's multifaceted personality, but none of them captured the essence of his soul: thirst for power. Stalin executed all of them, eliminating these subsidiary aspects of early Soviet rule which were merely getting in the way. The real goal was to raise and strengthen Lenin's banner over Russia, consolidate power, and build a powerful state.</p>

<p>To Grossman, Lenin’s intolerance, his firmness, his fanaticism all stem from the centuries of Russian unfreedom and intolerance. Grossman sees Stalin not as a huge departure from Lenin's tenure, but as a logical continuation of former events, and a cementing (as per Yesenin) of the existing path.</p>

<h1>Russia's default state: totalitarian unfreedom</h1>

<blockquote>
  <p>Лишь одного не видела Россия за тысячу лет: свободы
  The one thing Russia has not seen in a thousand years: freedom.</p>
</blockquote>

<blockquote>
  <p>Особенности русской души рождены несвободой. Русская душа тысячелетния раба.
  Particularities of Russian spirit emerge from unfreedom. One thousand years a slave.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Freedom had almost no grounding in Russian history at all. Any notions of liberalism are entirely imported from western thought. The government was only democratic for two brief moments: the period of 1905-1917, then again roughly 1991-2000.  Other than that, the default state of Russia for the last millennium has been unfreedom.</p>

<p>Grossman writes almost from a Eurasianist perspective, emphasizing Stalin's veneer of culture on top of a Mongol yoke core. Stalin's Russia was certainly the successor of the Tatar-Mongol empire. See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Legacy_of_Genghis_Khan_-_The_Mongol_Impact_on_Russian_History,_Politics,_Economy,_and_Culture_notes">The Legacy of Genghis Khan - The Mongol Impact on Russian History, Politics, Economy, and Culture notes</a>.</p>

<p>There are a surprisingly large number of words for serf in Russian: крепостной, холоп, ишак.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Этот  азиат  в  шевровых  сапожках,  цитирующий Щедрина, живущий законами кровной мести и одновременно пользующийся словарем революции, внес ясность в послеоктябрьский   хаос,  осуществил,  выразил  свой  характер  в  характере государства.
  This khan in velvet boots, citing Schedrin and living by the law of the jungle, used the language of revolution to bring clarity to the post-October chaos and projected his own character into that of the state.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>The Real Russian Revolution: Ending Feudalism</h1>

<p>For Grossman, the real revolution in Russian history was the prohibition of serfdom in the 1861. The Revolution of 1917 and the rise of Lenin and Stalin is a reversion to Russia default state of unfreedom.</p>

<h1>Lenin: totalitarian innovator</h1>

<p>Glimpses of Russian influence were imagined during the height of Russia's monarchic peak a century before the revolution of 1917, but never like this.</p>

<p>Rather than shining as a beacon for those dreaming of a communist utopia, Lenin's Soviet Russia rose up as an example of a simpler totalitarian society for the west to emulate. First Italy, then Nazi Germany followed suite. Leninism inspired authoritarian regimes in Asia too, including Communist China. Its legacy continues, with menacing echoes into the present day.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Links for August 2022</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/links-for-august-2022/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-08-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-08-31.jpg" alt="Generated image of an Origami fold of Rodin's Thinker." /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://archive.vcu.edu/english/engweb/transcendentalism/authors/emerson/essays/selfreliance.html">Self-Reliance</a> (<em>Ralph Waldo Emerson</em>) — A classic essay from the transcendentalist 19th century philosopher, reminding to think for yourself, avoid conformity, be open to changing your mind, and worry less about being misunderstood.</li>
<li><a href="https://fs.blog/jootsing">"JOOTSing": The Key to Creativity</a> (<em>Farnam Street</em>) — Jootsing, a term coined by Douglas Hofstadter, means Jumping Out Of The System (JOOTS). First you must become intimately familiar with the system and its rules, and only then can you create something new by breaking some of them.</li>
<li><a href="https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/ursula-k-le-guin-the-carrier-bag-theory-of-fiction">The Carrier Bag Theory of Fiction</a> (<em>Ursula K. Le Guin</em>) — Referencing the Carrier Bag Theory of Evolution, in which Fisher suggest the primacy of the bag over the knife, Le Guin questions the idea that the proper shape of a narrative involves conflict. Instead, Le Guin argues that "reduction of narrative to conflict is absurd"; instead, the natural shape of a novel is one of a bag of words carrying meanings, far less prescriptive than the hero's journey.</li>
<li><a href="https://sashachapin.substack.com/p/notes-against-note-taking-systems">Notes Against Note-Taking Systems</a> (<em>Sasha Chapin</em>) —  A forceful reminder that getting lost in your knowledge management system is a fantastic way to avoid creating things. Keep it simple!</li>
<li><a href="https://oxonianreview.com/articles/death-is-a-master-from-russia">Death Is a Master From Russia</a> (<em>The Oxonian</em>) — Pomerantsev: "I am a writer and I love my mother tongue. Today my love is still valid, but it has become difficult, dramatic. Evil is polyglot. It speaks hundreds of different languages. It has its favorites, though."</li>
<li><a href="https://medium.com/personal-growth/sprezzatura-the-art-of-making-difficult-things-look-simple-55d0441c5cd">Sprezzatura: The Art of Making Difficult Things Look Simple</a> (<em>Louis Chew</em>) — The ability to display a certain nonchalance while performing a great feat was the hallmark of the ideal courtier. To the untrained eye, the performer is a genius, and this is magical; but the trained observer sees sprezzatura as a sign that the individual has put in the work. Fortune favors the prepared.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/june-huh-high-school-dropout-wins-the-fields-medal-20220705/">June Huh, High School Dropout, Wins the Fields Medal</a> (<em>Quanta</em>) — A portrait of a poet turned mathematician whose character is charming and in many ways the polar opposite of a prototypically successful person who moves fast and gets things done. So many ways to be.</li>
<li><a href="https://mysticalsilicon.substack.com/p/you-know-nothing-a-conversational">"You Know Nothing”: A Conversational Mindset</a> (<em>David Gasca</em>) — David suggests a stance for having better conversations: resist the urge to make assumptions about your interlocutor and start from a place of curiosity. From this place, it's easier to initiate and have a good conversation.</li>
<li><a href="https://jsomers.net/i-should-have-loved-biology/">I Should Have Loved Biology</a> (<em>James Somers</em>) — James recalls how little he enjoyed learning Biology, which despite its interestingness as a field, felt like a "lifeless recitation of names". What if instead of focusing on seemingly arbitrary facts, Bio was taught historically, by acquainting students with real biological questions, the scientific processes biologists used to answer them, to give students an opportunity to put themselves in the scientists shoes and wonder? What if it involved more <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJyUtbn0O5Y">inspiring and beautiful illustrations</a> and explorable explanations?</li>
<li><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/much-better-awful-can-be-better">The World Is Awful. The World Is Much Better. The World Can Be Much Better</a> (<em>Our World in Data</em>) — For many issues all three statements can be true at the same time. Take child mortality where 5.2 million children, or 3.8% of their population dies every year (completely awful), this number was 43% in 1800 (so we are making progress), but if the whole world was like the EU, this number could be reduced ten-fold (room to improve).</li>
<li><a href="https://every.to/p/what-i-miss-about-working-at-stripe">What I Miss About Working at Stripe</a> (<em>Brie Wolfson</em>) — A nostalgic piece about a time when the gravitational pull of work was strong. The author does a good job of capturing the feeling that a kind and balanced working environment may be at odds with the latent desire to do the best work of one's lifetime.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/parenting-decisions-dont-trust-your-gut-book-excerpt/629734/">The One Parenting Decision That Really Matters</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — In a large scale study of children's outcomes as a function of many variables, recent studies indicate that the effect of nature on a child is far stronger than nurture, but one parenting factor stands above the rest: the location of the childhood home. See <a href="https://www.opportunityatlas.org/">The Opportunity Atlas</a> for more details.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Goal - A Business Graphic Novel</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-goal-a-business-graphic-novel"/>
    
    <updated>2022-08-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/the-goal-a-business-graphic-novel</id>
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        <p>The Goal: A Business Graphic novel is crass, outdated and overly on the nose. At the same time, it is a relatively entertaining illustrated introduction to a boring idea (a management paradigm). For this alone, I can't help but recommend it.</p>

<p>Alex Rogo directs a plant at Unico. He’s struggling to turn his business around and the CEO has just given him an ultimatum. I've never read a business novel before, and the combination of words is surprising. Is Rogo up to his managerial task? (Of course, otherwise there would be no hero's journey... But how?) Like “Obi Wan Kenobi instructing Luke Skywalker on the use of the force”, his former professor turned consultant Jonah saves the day.</p>

<p>The formulation of a business seems very crass and slightly outdated. None of this ESG shit; the goal is to make money. How? In a nutshell:</p>

<ol>
<li>Maximize throughout: the rate at which the system generates money through sales.</li>
<li>Inventory: all money the system has invested in purchasing things it intends to sell.</li>
<li>Minimize operational expenses: all money the system spends in order to turn inventory into throughout.</li>
</ol>

<p>I enjoyed the vignette of Alex Rogo taking a group of boyscouts including his son on a backpacking trip. He is faced with the challenge of making sure everyone safely arrives at the destination and managing their various abilities. One boy, Herbie seems to always be lagging behind, slowing the group down. When Rogo investigates, it turns out that he is carrying the large and heavy tent. By redistributing the tent parts between the rest of the boys, everyone is slightly more burdened, but the group is able to establish a much faster pace.</p>

<p>This boyscouts story is directly analogous to the factory production line, where some resources are bottlenecks:</p>

<ol>
<li>Bottleneck resources - capacity is less than or equal to demand placed on it. It's a constraint</li>
<li>Non-bottleneck resources - capacity is greater than demand.</li>
</ol>

<p>And so this is Eliyahu M. Goldratt's Theory of Constraints: look for bottlenecks and optimize the system accordingly. In the fictional plant in the story, quality control initially happened after an expensive bottleneck. One of Jonah's insights was that it was far more efficient to do quality control before the bottleneck and discard parts before they pass through the expensive bottleneck.</p>

<p>Bottlenecks should always have a queue waiting on them. They are critical pieces that, if scaled, would greatly improve efficiency. Conversely if they sit idle, it’s a complete waste of resources. A bottleneck sitting idle means the whole plant is effectively sitting idle, with no throughput.</p>

<p>But also having huge queues of parts waiting on a bottleneck is a bad idea. It means somewhere in the system something is working too hard. So running non-bottleneck resources at maximum capacity is dumb. It’ll just create a giant queue of stuff stuck in the bottleneck. Reallocate resources.</p>

<p>Jonah suggests: work backwards from total throughput to have each part of the process output parts at the right rate. So avoid massive queues and make sure bottlenecks are operating at 100%.</p>

<p>Of course once the bottleneck has been resolved throughout increases. And now another bottleneck is in the way. And so on.  This is essentially an optimization process.</p>

<p>A funny parable to summarize the concept involves Jonah visiting the Rogo household and having the kids devise solutions to the Herbie hiking problem. His daughter suggests the boyscouts march to the best of a drum (i.e. constrained by the bottleneck), while his son suggests they also provide ropes so that the campers stay close together but without too much rigidity (ie. to be more resilient if there are random fluctuations.)</p>

<p>The whole book has a sleazy vibe to it. In one scene, Alex bets the head of sales that they will produce a quantity of units a new pair of Gucci loafers. And in the end, Alex wins the battle with the terrible accounting division, who is trying to subdue Alex's creative problem solving. Gotcha!</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>AI note garden: Dreamer, note collider</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-dreamer"/>
    
    <updated>2022-08-19T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-dreamer</id>
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        <p>The process of interconnection is critical for creativity and divergent thought in general. Synthesis is how many new insights are generated. We humans have a knack for doing this, even in bed. Sleep intelligently interconnects newly gleaned information with prior memories. <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34466963-why-we-sleep">Matt Walker</a> describes this as “a form of informational alchemy”. A study he cites has shown that discovering a hidden pattern in a problem set is thrice more likely during sleep.</p>

<p>In this post, I describe my early attempt use GPT-3 to emulate this nightly synthesis. A python script takes two randomly selected notes from my note corpus, and tries to divine a connection between them. The results are often nonsensical and surreal, and sometimes funny.</p>

<!--more-->

<h1>How can an AI dreamer synthesize new connections?</h1>

<p>Let's take two random notes and see if the collective wisdom contained within a large language model can generate something interesting based on the text content of each. Picking two notes at random is easy enough, but the two need to be combined somehow to ultimately create a string of input for GPT-3.</p>

<p>The simplest imaginable thing of concatenating the two random notes together and seeing what GPT-3 spits out is a non-starter for several reasons. Firstly, GPT-3 is constrained in its input length. Secondly, GPT-3 is pretty susceptible to the order in which these prompts are presented. Since it generates a string to continue the provided text, the closer a word is to the end of the input, the more weight it is effectively given.</p>

<h2>Multiple doses of GPT-3</h2>

<p>We have a note corpus, and <a href="/ai-note-garden-summarizer">the power of summarization</a>. Broadly speaking, each note consists of the following:</p>

<ul>
<li>Name (<code>note.name</code>)</li>
<li>Note body (<code>note.body</code>)</li>
<li>First paragraph of the note body (<code>shortbody</code>)</li>
<li>Summary (<code>summary</code>)</li>
<li>Summarized summary (<code>sumsum</code>)</li>
</ul>

<p>The goal is to build a prompt string that encourages GPT-3 to synthesize something interesting related to both notes, ideally written in a writing style that mimics the originals.</p>

<p>Here's the best I've come up with so far (prompt engineers, please @-me):</p>

<p><code>
 f'''{note1.name}: {shortbody1}
 {note2.name}: {shortbody2}
 In summary: {sumsum2} and {sumsum1}.
 The connection between "{note1.name}" and "{note2.name}" is the following.'''
</code></p>

<p>This python f-string contains excerpts of my own writing (<code>shortbody</code>), the summarized summary (<code>sumsum</code>), as well as both note names at the very end, to remind GPT-3 what we are after as explicitly as possible. I try to mix up the order so as to not bias too much towards one of the two notes.</p>

<p>By having the verbatim text of the original notes, I gently nudge GPT-3 to produce output in a similar style.</p>

<p>One parameter of these LLMs is called temperature, which is a proxy for how wild the output should be. I've cranked it up to close to its maximum value for more spicy results.</p>

<h1>Results from living with AI note collider</h1>

<p>Dreamer is now part of my <a href="/file-systems-for-thought/">System for Thought</a> suite, running nightly alongside <a href="/ai-note-garden-dreamer/">other</a> <a href="">AI gardeners</a>. It's been operational since late 2021, so I have had about a hundred examples of its output to casually peruse.</p>

<p>Just seeing two random notes from the garden can a good nudge to remove a note that was temporary, spark a new connection, or create a new note. Sometimes it's fascinating to revisit an old shower thought that I'd long forgotten about.</p>

<p>Dreamer's results are usually nonsensical, but sometimes surprisingly funny and surreal. Here are some of <a href="https://photos.app.goo.gl/oRTnemu2EiwMewm1A">my favorites</a>:</p>

<table>
    <thead>
        <tr>
      <td>Index</td>
            <td>Note 1</td>
            <td>Note 2</td>
            <td>Collision excerpt</td>
        </tr>
    </thead>
    <tr>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>Ikea shopping list</td>
        <td>Political debates in VR</td>
        <td>"IKEA", in Norway, is known as the "Freedom Store", because of the store's role during the German occupation of Norway in World War II, who hid people in a secret room in the ceiling.</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>2</td>
        <td>Carolingian miniscule</td>
        <td>Canada debate aphorisms</td>
        <td>In the beginning, there was no spaces between words. Then, people started to want more space between words. Canada debated tax-increases on the rich. NDP said, "FUCK THE RICH!" The Liberals wanted more social services. Conservatives wanted a balanced budget. People wanted a tighter pussy. People changed their mind.</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>3</td>
        <td>Whitman kitchen paint</td>
        <td>Notes from mentoring session</td>
        <td>It feels so clear that I will even share it: Cooking is a merging of UX and engineering that results in an edible meal. Which is well written amounts to an edible book.</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>4</td>
        <td>Canadians entering US by land</td>
        <td>Steveston's Fraser River estuary and current flow</td>
        <td>Officer says "Good That's more interesting than the usual vacation." Note: Canada has quite a few kind of kayaks to rent. Large types used for the interior of huge lakes. Also the kind used for the Sea used for day touring</td>
    </tr>
</table>

<ol>
<li>IKEA is Swedish not Norwegian. It was founded in 1943, so had no significant role to play in WWII. As far as I can tell, is not known as the "Freedom Store" in any way whatsoever. But I loved the visual of hiding people in a secret room in the ceiling.</li>
<li>Good trajectory, first taking a bit from Carolingian miniscule, then advancing to Canadian politics. But then things take an unexpected turn for the worse. That escalated quickly!</li>
<li>I liked that cooking was poetically described as a mix of UX and engineering that resulted in an "edible meal". Edible meals are my favorite kind. The "edible book" gave me pause, and made me question the AI's taste.</li>
<li>I enjoyed the border guard's description of Canada's broad variety of kayaks available for the day touring!</li>
</ol>

<h1>Failure modes and ideas for improvement</h1>

<p>Most of Dreamer's results are bad in a variety of ways. Here are a few of them:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Errors accrue</strong>: My current approach relies on running GPT-3 several times for summarization. Each of these invocations blurs the idea a little bit, and then a little bit more. The resulting soup is then blurred again at collision time. If I was more diligent about <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Bottom_Line_Up_Front_(BLUF)_note_taking_style">Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) note taking style</a> in my note corpus, summarization might not be necessary to fit within the token limits.</li>
<li><strong>One of the notes is ignored</strong>: Despite my efforts, GPT-3 still often overindexes on one of the notes and completely ignores the other.</li>
<li><strong>False information</strong>: There is no attempt at grounding output in truth. Generated results often include alternative facts, to put it mildly.</li>
<li><strong>The notes are truly unrelated</strong>: This happens quite often, since my notes are written on a broad variety of topics in a variety of styles. Some are Evergreen notes, others are lists of quotes, others indices that link a certain topic together. Others are notes about my day-to-day life, dream logs, etc.</li>
</ol>

<p>One March night, Dreamer attempted to combine my aspirational lifestyle notes on building a camper van with historical research notes about the "high medieval power shift from lords to peasants and kings". This resulted in the following:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>One weekend when we’re all together in Idaho, we're going drive Nic’s Audi A4 FSi Quattro to Guernsey together and find avocados on an island called Herm. That’s southern France. It’s on the English Channel. Also where I started! Overall happy with the car and the weekend. Felt good to run an out of town car in the snow, and liked the road.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Drivel? Yes, let me count the ways:</p>

<ul>
<li>You can't drive to an island.</li>
<li>The English Channel is not near southern France.</li>
<li>Herm is not a very good place to find avocados.</li>
</ul>

<p>But this example is still illustrative because you can see how GPT-3 incorporated bits of both notes. A car is close enough to a camper van. Lords and kings and peasants sound like they are vaguely related to the Norman conquest, hence the English Channel, Herm, and France.</p>

<p>Finding a meaningful connection in the above example is pretty difficult, even for human intelligence. Is it really fair to blame an AI for failing at this task?</p>

<p>It often takes an oneirocritic to extract insight out of a cryptic dream. Cormac McCarthy <a href="https://nautil.us/the-kekul-problem-6082/">writes eloquently</a> about this subject. If we consider <a href="https://read.fluxcollective.org/p/64">LLMs as a muse</a>, perhaps this cryptic output is good enough?</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Secret Life of Groceries</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-secret-life-of-groceries"/>
    
    <updated>2022-08-17T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/the-secret-life-of-groceries</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>At first I was taken by the surprisingly well written prose (for a non-fiction book). Here Lorr recollects his feelings after having lived abroad for a while and seeing an American supermarket for the first time in a while. This feeling of awe is familiar to me having immigrated from the Soviet Union in 1990:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>A love like all love filled with doubt and rage and insecurity, but also overwhelming and blanketing, warm and intoxicating. It was a love of re-acclimation, of reabsorbing a childhood and birthright, of seeing myself and my country with new eyes, both fearful and reverent.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>And here is a memory conveyed remarkably well in writing of the olfactory experience of cleaning a whole foods fish freezer.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>...ten thousand minnows piled up in silver ribbons, left for days, as they waited to be transformed into the protein base of the aquaculture pyramid. Those were some strong sniffs. And yet none of it—not the trash fish nor fecal lagoons—was as fundamentally gross and disturbing as the smell that came out of that fish case in Manhattan. In a Whole Foods. In one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in the wealthiest nation in the world.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>I learned that SKUs stand for "Shop Keeping Units", and that the average adult spends 2% of their life in a supermarket.</p>

<p>Despite the relative interestingness, the book kind of drones on. The section on Trader Joe's was overly fanboyish and protracted. Further, I am ashamed to admit that my interest in groceries and supply chains appears to be dwindling as the pandemic comes to a close.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Links for July 2022</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/links-for-july-2022/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-07-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/notes/2022/links-for-july-2022/</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-07-31.jpg" alt="Generated image of Putin up to no good." /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://worksthatwork.com/1/urinal-fly">Aiming to Reduce Cleaning Costs</a> (<em>Works That Work</em>) — A humorous look at the fly targets found in the Schiphol urinals. It turns out that men cannot resist peeing on things, especially if they look as though they might wash away. If it’s something that you consciously don’t like, you’re more likely to pee on it, hence the fly. The first known urinal target was a bee in Victorian England in 1880, perhaps as a high-falutin' joke (Latin for bee is apis).</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/how-san-francisco-became-failed-city/661199/">How San Francisco Became a Failed City</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — San Francisco's homeless budget has grown exponentially, committing $1B over 2022 and 2023 to tackle the problem, but people are still selling fentanyl on the streets, petty crime is rising quickly, and school quality is plummeting. The main battle is between leftist idealists who think a perfect world is just within reach and we're on the right track, and liberals who are fed up with psychotic addicts on the sidewalk, and disagree that a merit-based school system is inherently racist.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.ijors.net/issue5_2_2016/articles/cicek.html">The Legacy of Genghis Khan - The Mongol Impact on Russian History, Politics, Economy, and Culture notes</a> (<em>IJORS</em>) — Medieval Russia (Kyiv) tracked Medieval Europe and its Latin Christian civilization, but the Mongol invasion isolated Russia from the west for nearly three centuries, setting it on a parallel track. Two opposing historical takes on this feature the Westernizers, who were charmed with the values of enlightenment, democracy, and freedom, blamed the Mongols for Russia’s backwardness, whereas the Eurasianists embraced the Mongol legacy, claiming that it strengthened the founding pillars of the Tsarist Russian State such as Orthodoxy and autocracy and thus made a profound contribution to the security and stability of Russia.</li>
<li><a href="https://skamille.medium.com/i-hate-manager-readmes-20a0dd9a70d0">I Hate Manager READMEs</a> (<em>Camille Fournier</em>) — In her own words: "If you know you have foibles/quirks that you in fact want to change about yourself, do the work." "Keep your bad behaviors to yourself, and hold yourself accountable for their impact". How? Consider getting a coach.</li>
<li><a href="https://nautil.us/the-kekul-problem-6082/">The Kekulé Problem</a> (<em>Nautilus</em>) — Legend has it that August Kekulé discovered the ring-like structure of benzene after daydreaming about the snake seizing its own tale, the ancient ouroboros symbol. If the unconscious is so smart, muses writer Cormac McCarthy, why the cryptic messaging? Just tell poor Kekulé directly, using language! Alas, the ancient unconscious predates language, and moves in mysterious ways.</li>
<li><a href="https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/estonia-warning-the-world-about-russia/">Estonia: Warning the World About Russia</a> (<em>Newlines Magazine</em>) — Estonians don't need to be reminded of what Russia under Stalin did to their ancestors in 1941 and 1949. Unlike much of the rest of the world, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas believed that Putin would invade on Feb 24. Today Estonia unequivocally supports Ukraine, donating 40% of the country's annual military budget and more than 0.8% of its GDP.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.purposegeneration.com/buzz/article/gather-with-purpose-how-to-host-a-jeffersonian-dinner">How to Host a Jeffersonian Dinner</a> (<em>Purpose Generation</em>) — By engaging in a single conversation, with only one person speaking at a time, Jefferson and his guests were able to unlock the power of their collective wisdom. The purpose was simple: to listen, learn, and inspire one another through meaningful dialogue around a particular topic.</li>
<li><a href="https://subconscious.substack.com/p/centralization-is-inevitable">Centralization Is Inevitable</a> (<em>Subconscious</em>) — Gordon leans on network theory to graphs occurring in nature, like the one with airports as vertices and flights as edges, or the internet with nodes as webpages and links as edges. These graphs may start random but converge to be power law distributed if you plot the frequency of nodes as a function of degree, but this makes them vulnerable to attacks on a few high-degree nodes (centers), which inevitably happen.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/bloodlands-by-timothy-snyder"/>
    
    <updated>2022-07-20T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/bloodlands-by-timothy-snyder</id>
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        <p>At a high level, Bloodlands is a deep look into a variety of organized mass killings conducted by the Nazis and Soviets from roughly 1932 to about 1953 in The Bloodlands, loosely defined as territories in Eastern Europe, centered on modern Ukraine, but including modern Poland, Belarus, the Baltic states, and western Russian regions occupied by Germany. Snyder estimates 14 million non-combatant victims, 2/3 of which were murdered by the Nazis, 1/3 by the Soviets.</p>

<p>I was brought up with a Russian perspective on the Great War: we carried the whole damn thing. In school, I was learned the Canadian-American perspective on World War II: we saved the day  in the nick of time and owned the war in the Pacific. My Jewish background gave me a good sense for the horrors of the Shoah. I lost two great grandfathers in The Bloodlands, one murdered by Stalin in the repressions of 1938, another murdered by the Nazis as a Soviet POW in 1942.</p>

<p>Snyder's work integrates all of these disparate pieces and more into a coherent and truly terrifying narrative. He emphasizes the interactions between Stalin's Russia and Hitler's Germany, and the similarities between the two regimes. This view is distinct from any I had experienced. The events described are so terrible, I searched online multiple times to find a credible takedown of Snyder's work, but to no avail.</p>

<hr />

<p>Broadly speaking, the events in the book can be separated into three parts:</p>

<ol>
<li>Pre-war Soviet Russia (1933-1939): Characterized by large scale Stalinist repressions.</li>
<li>Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (1939-1941): Russia was allied with Germany and mostly ganged up against Poland.</li>
<li>Allied Russia (1941-1945): Germany engaged in mass killing of Soviet POWs, then Jews and other minorities.</li>
</ol>

<p>The breakdown of victims in these events is as follows:</p>

<ul>
<li>Starvation of Ukrainians by the Soviets in 1932-33 (Holodomor): 3.3 million.</li>
<li>Great Terror of 1937-38: 300,000 people, mostly poles and Ukrainians. 400,000 more outside the Bloodlands.</li>
<li>Soviet and Nazi oppression of Poles and Balts from 1939-41: 200,000.</li>
<li>German starvation in 1941-44: 4.2 million soviet citizens.</li>
<li>Nazi Jewish killings (Holocaust): 5.4 million Jews.</li>
<li>German killings of Polish and Belorussian partisans in 1942-44: 700,000 civilians shot during the occupation of the western soviet union.</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Triple occupation: Soviets, Nazis and back again</strong>. Many of the territories in question were triply occupied: first by the Soviets, then the Nazis, and back again to the Soviets.</p>

<p><strong>Stalin enabled Hitler</strong>. Stalin's brutal collectivization and ensuing famines paved the way for Hitler to point to the transgressions of the communists. He rode that wave to consolidate power in Germany. This in turn reduced Comintern prestige globally and strained Russia German relations.</p>

<p><strong>Jews as communists</strong>. The communist party was largely Jewish, a fact the media gleefully covered for decades in the 1920 and 1930s. When Stalin's communists began committing mass murder at an unprecedented scale, this played into the propaganda of the Nazis.</p>

<p><strong>Ethnic composition of the NKVD</strong>. The founder of the NKVD, Felix Dzerzhinsky, was a Polish nobleman by birth, and Poles were highly represented in the NKVD at its foundation. Snyder claims that 40% of the NKVD were Jewish in ethnicity, which is shockingly high and somewhat <a href="https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/45384/did-40-of-the-nkvd-soviet-police-leadership-have-jewish-nationality">controversial</a>. Both Poles and Jews were systematically purged, and by 1940, the party was more ethnically Russian than the general population. The only more represented ethnicity were Georgians, largely because of Stalin’s nepotism.</p>

<p><strong>Eastern European Nazi collaborators</strong>. Many Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Poles, Belorussians, and Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis in their Jew killing venture. The jews were a convenient scapegoat for the ills of the Soviets. By agreeing that the Jews were at fault and needed to be purged, they saved their own skin from the wrath of the nazis.</p>

<p><strong>European polarization</strong>. Europe was so polarized by 1936 that it was impossible to criticize the Soviet Union without appearing to endorse Hitlers Germany. Hitler called his enemies Marxists. Stalin called his Fascists. They agreed there was no middle ground.</p>

<p><strong>Murderous troikas</strong>. A shockingly high number of people were killed by Stalinist Troikas, which consisted of three administrators from various levels of government, acting as judge jury and executioner.</p>

<p><strong>Japan's role</strong>. The Russo-German alliance 1939-41 sidelined the Japanese, who were Germany's natural ally and Russia's natural enemy. What would happen, speculates Snyder, if rather than purging its own citizenry, Stalin focused on disarming Japan and preventing the War in the Pacific? The course of the war might have been altered drastically, and perhaps not for the better... Imagine no Pearl Harbor?</p>

<p><strong>Mass starvation as a geopolitical strategy</strong>: Much of Ukraine suffered greatly in Stalin's attempts to convert Kulaks into collective farmers. Later, because Ukraine was still the breadbasket of the Soviet Union and supplied major Russian cities, Hitler would just starve the Russian urban elites (necessary anyway) and feed the Germans instead. This was literally called the Hunger Plan.</p>

<p><strong>Gareth Jones, journalist of the Holodomor</strong>. Jones, a Welshman, described the soviet atrocities and described the widespread famine in detail. After being banned from re-entering the Soviet Union, Jones was kidnapped and murdered in 1935.</p>

<p><strong>Unknown war crimes</strong>. The scale of the Stalinist program was completely unknown outside of soviet Russia. And even in Soviet Russia it was not at all widely known. (How much clandestine terror happens behind closed doors today? At what scale can such things operate in a world of internet and social media?)</p>

<p><strong>Personal stories help re-humanize people</strong>: This masterwork does an impressive job of combining the birds eye view with deeply troubling personal stories. Snyder writes eloquently about the importance of the latter:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The Nazi and Soviet regimes turned people into numbers some of which we can only estimate. It is for us as scholars to seek these numbers and put them into perspective. It is for us as humanists to turn these numbers back into people. If we cannot do that, then hitler and Stalin have shaped not only our world but our humanity.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Names and history of Donetsk</strong>. Bizarrely, the city of Donetsk was founded in 1869 by Welsh businessman John Hughes, an energy magnate. It was originally named Юзовка after Hughes but by 1931 it was renamed to Stalino. It was renamed to Donetsk by Khrushev as part of destalinization in 1961.</p>

<p><strong>Jews: shot and gassed</strong>. Jews living east of the Molotov-Ribbentrop line tended to be shot. Those living in German Reich territory tended to be gassed. Gassing techniques were first perfected for mass euthanasia of disabled and elderly “useless eaters”. Rather than running the exhaust of a truck into its cab, they took out the ICE of trucks and put them into buildings to increase the scale of the killings. First perfected at Belzec (“Boo-jets”), this was also used in Treblinka and other death camps like Sobibor.</p>

<p><strong>Let them destroy each other</strong>
- The West stood by as Russia and Germany waged war on one another, hoping to let the Nazis and Communists destroy one another without lifting a finger.
- The Soviets let the Poles rise up against the Nazis during the Warsaw uprising and falsely promised reinforcements.</p>

<p><strong>Polish lack of control</strong>. Stalin bullied Churchill into labeling the Polish resistance as “adventurers”, and forced the rest of the Allies to do the same. This move was heavily condemned by Koestler and Orwell. Thus the Polish Home Army was not able to retain any control over Warsaw. By the end of the war Stalin finally allowed Allied powers to liberate Warsaw, but he delayed enough that the Soviets had de facto control, not the Polish government in exile.</p>

<p><strong>Soviet alternative history</strong>.
- According to Soviet history books, the war started in 1941 not in 1939. There could be no mention of the Nazi-Soviet alliance against Poland.
- To the Soviets, Russians needed to be the main victims of the Great War, not the Jews. Thus the Holocaust could not become part of the official history of the war.</p>

<p><strong>Solomon Michoels and the Jewish Anti-Fascist Committee</strong> attempted to bring the plight of the Jews to the attention of the world. He petitioned Stalin to allow to publish the <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Book_of_Soviet_Jewry">The Black Book of Soviet Jewry</a> written by Red Army reporters Ilya Ehrenburg and Vasily Grossman. But this initiative was blocked. Michoels political campaigning led him to be murdered by Stalin (officially a truck accident). A surprising group of high profile activists including violinist <a href="https://yivoencyclopedia.org/article.aspx/jewish_anti-fascist_committee">David Oistrakh</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Death camps, not concentration camps</strong>. Snyder really drives home the point that concentration camps were just the tip of the iceberg. The vast majority of Jews killed in the Shoah had never seen one or been in one. Many hundreds of thousands were shot are gassed in death facilities. The emphasis on concentration camps probably comes from media coverage shortly after the war as well as personal accounts from survivors. Case in point, Hannah Arendt's work is mostly about Auschwitz.</p>

<p><strong>Poles and Polish Jews</strong>. Polish Jews suffered the worst fate at the hands of the Germans. The worst parts of Poland were due to the Jews according to the Nazi stereotype. Polish Jews in the military were represented heavily, especially doctors, which was an affront to the Nazi world view. 90% of the Jews living in Poland were killed by the end of the war. Those that survived had no desire to return home, afraid of the displaced Poles that would resist if they they would try to retake their homes. Most fled via Germany to Israel or the United States. Before the war, 3 million Jews lived in Poland. By the end of it, and after the Polish communist anti-Semitism of the 60s, 30,000 remained. The non-Jewish Poles also suffered disproportionately compared to other non-Jewish ethnicities. Even so, a Jewish Pole was 15x more likely to die than their non-Jewish counterpart.</p>

<p><strong>Jewish resistance</strong>. A unified front of armed Jews came to be known as the Jewish Combat Organization. They sought to kill heads of the Judenrat and Jewish informants. Most of the action was in the Warsaw ghetto. By 1943 they had managed to kill some Nazis too, which led to a German vendetta against the Warsaw ghetto. When the Nazis came to destroy it they were met with sniper fire and Molotov cocktails. Called by some the “Jewish German War”, this resulted in the Nazis razing the Warsaw ghetto and turning it into a concentration camp.</p>

<p><strong>Resettlement</strong>: When the Nazis "resettled" Jews, this was used as a euphemism for mass murder. Resettlement from the Warsaw ghetto involved "deportation" of 250,000 Jews to the Treblinka death camp. Post-war Stalin used the same term to actually resettle people en mass. These were also brutal endeavours, and thousands died in transit, many traveling in open train cars in the bitter cold. The Germans suffered greatly after the war, dehumanized as a nation for the atrocities of the Nazis. As the Red Army pressed west, soldiers raped German women, and killed the men or took them as laborers.</p>

<p><strong>"Respecting" national boundaries</strong>. After the end of the war, Stalin implemented policies which segregated nations into their own national boundaries. In some cases, these boundaries were drawn up arbitrarily. Stalin effectively moved Poland westward, annexing eastern Poland into the soviet Ukraine at the expense of east German lands given to Poland. Germany would be for the Germans once more, just like Hitler envisioned but a much smaller territory. There was a large consensus throughout the word that each nation should be defined by its own nationality living within it.</p>

<p><strong>Who to surrender to?</strong>
- The Poles had to decide whether to surrender to the Wehrmacht or the Red Army in 1939, when they were attacked simultaneously by Germany from the west and Russia from the east. This was a tricky choice.
- The Germans had to decide when they were attacked by the Russians from the east and by other allies from the west. This was a no brainer: flee westward as quickly as possible.
- It's like an especially horrifying version of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wC10VWDTzmU">You Gotta Serve Somebody</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Bloodlands, named for an Ахматова poem</strong>:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Не бывать тебе в живых,
  Со снегу не встать.
  Двадцать восемь штыковых,
  Огнестрельных пять.
  Горькую обновушку
  Другу шила я.
  Любит, любит кровушку
  Русская земля.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Stalin and Israel in 1948</strong>. Moscow was initially very sympathetic to Israel, seeing it potentially as fertile soil for communism. There was elation in Moscow when Golda Meir, originally from Kyiv, visited during Rosh Hashanah 1948. However Stalin quickly changed his mind, finding that Jews had more influence on the Soviet state than the Soviet state did on Israel.</p>

<p><strong>Systematic Stalinist Anti-semitism</strong>. Around 1949, Stalin began a concerted campaign against the Jews of Soviet Union. Many Jewish poets writing under Russian synonyms were arrested and killed as part of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Murdered_Poets">Night of the Murdered Poets</a> (including Leib Kvitko), followed by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctors%27_plot">Doctor's Plot</a> which was diffused only by Stalin's death. Jews were now suspected of either being "Jewish Nationalists" or being "Rootless Cosmopolitans", with their names placed in parentheses in official lists. Increasingly Israel was seen as a client state of America, which led to fundamental aversion to the country.</p>

<p><strong>Molotov's wife</strong>. Molotov's wife Polina Zhemchuzhina was Jewish and accused of having Zionist ties for her support of the Jewish Anti-Fascists. A close friend of Stalin's wife Nadezhda (another murky story), she was arrested for treason in 1948, and forced into an unwanted divorce from Μolotov. She was convicted and sentenced to five years in a labor camp, released only after Stalin's death.</p>

<p><strong>Body counts and overlapping identities</strong>. In a the perverted contest between nations for greater victimhood that ensued after the war ended, there is is a tendency to inflate numbers of dead. Russia still clings on to the Soviet number of dead even though for example very few Russian Jews died in the holocaust (60k) compared to those of The Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus. Part of the exaggerated counts can be legitimately attributed to overlapping identity. The Polish Jew living in eastern Poland might have been under Soviet, German, then Soviet occupation again, before fleeing to Israel. This means she could be considered Ukrainian, Polish, Jewish, Soviet, German, or Israeli.</p>

<h1>Next</h1>

<ul>
<li>Check out Vassiliy Grossman. In my mind, at least, he seems to be in the same category as Arendt: bearing witness. Novels that might be worthwhile: Life and Fate, and Everything Flows.</li>
<li>Read more Анна Ахматова poems.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Parables by Franz Kafka</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/parables-by-franz-kafka"/>
    
    <updated>2022-07-07T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Many misses, for sure. But the hits I enjoyed were worthwhile:</p>

<p><strong>Imperial message</strong>: a great image of an emperor so important and surrounded by such a large number of people that a messenger cannot possibly escape his orbit. A message delivered to the second person recipient will never be delivered. Bureaucracies. Perhaps solar systems. Your own mind. Sometimes there is no escape.</p>

<p><strong>Tower of Babel and The City Coat of Arms</strong>: Cute vignette of the construction of the tower delayed because of peoples insistence that progress is imminent, and that if we just wait a bit the whole project will be done much faster. So why bother starting? As generations pass, the nations living in the city planning to build the tower begin squabbling. Towards the end, a prophecy emerges that the lord will crush the city with five successive blows from a divine fist. Hence the fist on the coat of arms of the city.</p>

<p>A bizarre take on Tower of Babel, featuring bureaucratic dysfunction and learned helplessness.</p>

<p><strong>Before the law</strong>: A man seeks entrance into The Law (I think the Torah version), but is prevented from entering by a guard because it is not time yet. The two exchange words and the man decides to wait until the time will come. He waits for many years, and the two have occasional conversations revealing that beyond this door lie more doors, with more guards. The man is undeterred and continues to wait. Near death, he gathers up the courage to ask his most pressing questions. After answering them, the guard announces he will be closing the door.</p>

<p>This short parable is told by a Priest, and the bulk of the story involves K. (Kafka?), the receiver of the story in conversation with the priest about various interpretation of the story. Is the man deluded? Is the guard? Who is more free?</p>

<p>A fascinating, self-referential, format. I see the man as a stand-in for K., and the priest as a stand-in for the guard. Where does the reader fit? What about the author? Reminds me a lot of Borges, and a little bit of Ted Chiang. (I’d love to do a group reading session around a story like this. I miss my Multiplayer Essay concept.)</p>

<p><strong>Poseidon</strong>: tracks the gate of an unhappy executive, appointed God of the Sea in the beginning, but perpetually unhappy, pining for “more cheerful work”. He was unable to sufficiently delegate to his subordinates and burned out completely.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Links for June 2022</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/links-for-june-2022/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-06-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-06-30.jpg" alt="Generated image of a nuclear icebreaker running into trouble in the north sea. Oil painting by Ivan Aivazovsky" /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://psyche.co/guides/how-to-have-a-life-full-of-wonder-and-learning-about-the-world">How to Revive Your Sense of Wonder</a> (<em>Psyche Guides</em>) — The childhood desire to ask "how" and "why" usually fades with age, but having children around, being open to embracing their way of thinking, and encouraging their curiosity by asking them generative questions of our own, parents can learn to rediscover the joys of wide-eyed discovery.</li>
<li><a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/29/please-make-a-dumb-car/">Please Make a Dumb Car</a> (<em>TechCrunch</em>) — A relatable rant criticizing modern cars for evolving into another overbearing device of which we have too many. The prototypical large touchscreen display in the middle of the console is overloaded for controlling everything from windshield wiper frequency to in-cab temperature to audio volume. Marketed as the next generation in mobility, this is largely a cost-saving measure that cuts down on part numbers.</li>
<li><a href="https://palladiummag.com/2022/04/11/collapse-wont-reset-society/">Collapse Won't Reset Society</a> (<em>Palladium</em>) — Identifies "collapse enthusiasts", people that look forward to the end of the current order, so that through a period of difficult anarchy, their ingroup can emerge victorious. Historically speaking there is surprising continuity even through anarchic periods, abrupt shifts don't normally last, and radical resets are pretty much unprecedented.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.psypost.org/2022/05/heightened-dream-recall-ability-linked-to-increased-creativity-and-functional-brain-connectivity-63139">Heightened Dream Recall Ability Linked to Increased Creativity and Functional Brain Connectivity</a> (<em>PsyPost</em>) — The Alternate Uses Task (AUT) is a famous psychological test to measure divergent thinking ability. Doing well on this test appears to be correlated with creative thinking, high dream recall, as well as increased functional connectivity within the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_mode_network">default mode network</a>. Which way does the arrow of causality fly? Can these abilities be cultivated?</li>
<li><a href="https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2022/05/18/crisis-mindsets/">Crisis Mindsets</a> (<em>Ribbonfarm</em>) — Rao argues that "having to face a crisis alone, besides all the obvious practical downsides, has a corresponding subtle downside — wondering why you’re bothering fighting at all". As the world turns and the default mindset shifts from flourishing to crisis, we are reminded to "retain a strong connection to the sublime".</li>
<li><a href="https://hbr.org/2007/01/becoming-the-boss">Becoming the Boss</a> (<em>HBR</em>) — New managers promoted from IC roles are often stars and haven't made significant mistakes, but learning to manage is a tacit skill, learned through trial and error. The natural question "Who am I becoming?" looms large. A broad ranging article that might resonate with a new manager.</li>
<li><a href="https://hugoclub.blogspot.com/2022/06/dethrone-stars.html">The Tsars Like Dust</a> (<em>Hugo Book Club Blog</em>) — Argues that Science Fiction falls back on monarchy as the default form of government, because from a storytelling perspective, it's difficult to make nuanced forms of government interesting, and easier to explain policy decision as a result of one person's choice. These fictional monarchies are often "based on a presumption that there is an inherent superiority to those within a specific lineage", reified even in the latest Star Wars trilogy.</li>
<li><a href="https://religionnews.com/2020/06/16/why-crossfits-founder-got-crossed-up-on-by-floyd-protests/">Why CrossFit’s founder got crossed up by Floyd protests</a> (<em>RNS</em>) — Burton suggests that the ideology of "best-selfism" embodied by CrossFit, embracing the quasi-religious pursuit of a better body through hard work and dedication, is fundamentally incompatible with the social justice movement which embraces solidarity and mutual support. There is perhaps a deeper truth about both best-selfism and social justice: Neither is out of the reach of the tendrils of capitalism.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.commentary.org/articles/jay-lefkowitz/the-rise-of-social-orthodoxy-a-personal-account/">The Rise of Social Orthodoxy (2014)</a> (<em>Commentary</em>) — A personal account of an as-yet-unnamed splinter movement in the Jewish Modern Orthodox denomination, which seeks to find a new point on the spectrum, closer towards modernity and further from orthodoxy, while still fully embracing the Jewish idea of <a href="https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report/understanding-naaseh-vnishma-in-a-post-modern-world-631129">na’aseh v’nishma</a>: engaging first in religious practices and letting matters of faith come later.</li>
<li><a href="https://bookmarks.reviews/george-orwells-1940-review-of-mein-kampf/">George Orwell reviews Mein Kampf (1940)</a> — Reviewed during the period of peace between Russia and Germany, reviewing an "unexpurgated" translation of Mein Kampf edited from a pro-Hitler angle from he was "still respectable", Both socialism and capitalism present positive visions that "assume tacitly that human beings desire nothing beyond ease, security and avoidance of pain", Orwell astutely observes that Hitler's ideology appealed to those seeking a valorous path, offering struggle, danger, death and an opportunity for patriotism and the military virtues.</li>
<li><a href="https://craigmod.com/ridgeline/143/">Walking the Cotswolds, Walking Japan</a> (<em>Craig Mod</em>) — Craig Mod presents an amazing multi-day meetup format involving walking and talking (a great combination, highly recommended): "A topic is chosen before bed. We chat the next day as we walk, and then we gather for a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuAT0YHQz94">Jeffersonian-style dinner</a> in the evening. One person talks, then another. Everyone listens."</li>
<li><a href="https://beforewegoblog.com/purity-and-futures-of-hard-work-by-ada-palmer/">Hopepunk, Optimism, Purity, and Futures of Hard Work</a> (<em>Ada Palmer</em>) — punk = “fight the man” + hope = “we deserve a better world”. Ada observes that hopepunk is a distinct opposites to the grimdark fantasy genre because while it embraces positive aspects of human nature (teamwork, honesty, resilience), unlike the more bland squeecore, hopepunk rejects purity. An insightful read, including a paradoxical insight, suggesting dystopian literature as a "fundamentally optimistic genre".</li>
<li><a href="https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/where-did-the-long-tail-go">Where Did the Long Tail Go?</a> (<em>Ted Gioia</em>) — A look back at Chris Anderson's starry eyed take on the future of the internet in "The Long Tail" (2006), which predicted that the internet would flourish into a world of endless choices for every fringe interest under the sun. In retrospect, rather than "Selling Less of More", thanks to aggregators and centralization, we are losing the long tail and returning back to normal economics, selling more of less.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/uber-ride-share-prices-high-inflation/661250/">Why Urban Life Suddenly Got Way More Expensive</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — When interest rates were near zero, VC money flowed easily and subsidized many risky ventures operating at a loss that aimed to "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Lo0sZfdHE">Blitzscale</a>" their way to gaining a monopoly, effectively subsidizing the price for consumers. As the tides turn, Blitzscaling is becoming harder to execute, so prices for food delivery, ride sharing, meal kits should further increase.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Arcadia by Tom Stoppard</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/arcadia-by-tom-stoppard"/>
    
    <updated>2022-06-11T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>It's pretty funny but in a very high falutin’ way, which detracts from the
comedy.</p>

<p>Isn’t that conjecture just Laplace’s Demon? From WP:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Laplace's demon is a hypothetical all-knowing being who knows the precise location and momentum of every atom in the universe, and therefore could use Newton's laws to reveal the entire course of cosmic events, past and future. Based upon the philosophical proposition of causal determinism.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Septimus &amp; Chater demanding satisfaction exchange is hilarious!</p>

<p>Overall I’m struggling to follow the arc. Lots of wit but just very much a
comedy of errors. I might try again when I'm in a more frivolous headspace.</p>

<p>A stray thought: I haven't tended to really enjoy plays much. Is this a lack of
imagination on my part? Perhaps it takes more work to truly imagine each
character delivering their lines without any of the scaffolding a narrator
provides...</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Creativity by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/creativity-by-mihaly-csikszentmihalyi"/>
    
    <updated>2022-06-07T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/creativity-by-mihaly-csikszentmihalyi</id>
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        <p>I recently ran a book club at work discussing <a href="/books/range-by-david-epstein-audio">Range</a>, and CB mentioned that this book is less Gladwellian and more nuanced covering a similar theme.</p>

<p>Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi of "Flow" fame is a psychologist, and takes a qualitative user research approach to the subject of creativity. He conducted interviews with 91 people that were deemed creative because of their impact on a field or because they helped to create a new one. He selected industry vets: people aged 60 and above from a variety of fields and cultures. Overall some gems but not without issues especially towards the end, where the book becomes less psychology and more self-help.</p>

<p><strong>Trend towards specialization</strong>. Imagine three people: one a physicist and a musician and one that is both. All things equal, the specialists would probably be better at their crafts than the one that has chosen to split his attention between both. This naive treatment clearly foreshadows the possible benefits of the two fields interacting with one another. Like cross-training in sports.</p>

<p><strong>Creativity and unhappiness?</strong>: Mihaly's research disconfirms the trope of the restless and miserable creative soul. Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky aren’t unhappy because they are creative but because of their residence in a nearly collapsing Russian empire. American poets that commit suicide do it because of their social circles and their poor compensation.</p>

<p><strong>Creativity is social</strong>: the author presents a socially mediated view of creativity. Society ultimately decides if you are creative or not. If you think you are creative but nobody else agrees, you might just be a kook!</p>

<p><strong>Three kinds of creativity</strong>:</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Brilliant</strong>: People with varied interests and a quick wit. Great conversationalists.</li>
<li><strong>Personal Creativity</strong>: People who see the world in a unique way, different from others.</li>
<li><strong>Creativity</strong>: People who change the world by introducing some new concept, technique, or invention. This is the emphasis of the book and what the author means by</li>
</ol>

<p>There isn’t any correlation between these types. Many brilliant people are not creative. Many personally creative people don't have any impact. But creative people change the world in some significant way. This notion of Creativity reminds me more of the distinction <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Novelty_creation_invention_innovation_terms">Novelty creation invention innovation terms</a>. Feels like the sense is after is the strongest: innovation. It must have impact.</p>

<p>Paradoxically whether someone is Creative or Personally Creative depends on society. Bach was not recognized as creative until several generations after his death when Mendelssohn re-discovered him. So you would have to say that he was only posthumously creative. Weird flex, but the author embraces it. Other examples include John Donne, a 16th century poet, who fell into obscurity only to be revived in the 20th century by TS Eliot. Van Gogh who was never recognized during his life.</p>

<p>Talent is also orthogonal to creativity. You might just be in the right place at the right time. Genius is also not required, and most creative people don't identify as such. Genius is mostly a label others apply to describe the most standout individuals.</p>

<p><strong>Three requirements for creativity</strong>:</p>

<ol>
<li>Domain: an area of inquiry.</li>
<li>Field (community): the gatekeepers in this area, the scene and people</li>
<li>Individual: using the symbols of a Domain, a person creates something that is approved by the Field.</li>
</ol>

<p>(Somewhat weird distinction between 1 and 2. Domain is the subject, field is the people.)</p>

<p>Why are there so many great architects and painters in the Italian Renaissance? Obviously not because some individuals (3) randomly got really creative. It’s more about the domain (1) and field (2). In other words, it’s the collective scenius that empowers individuals (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Four_ingredients_for_Scenius">Four ingredients for Scenius</a>). This is an insightful reminder. Still individual administrators and patrons can help or hurt here. For example the Medici played their part in catalyzing this Renaissance.</p>

<ul>
<li>Filippo Brunelleschi's Duomo at Florence.</li>
<li>Lorenzo Ghiberti's Gates of Paradise.</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Structured vs. diffuse domains</strong>: Some domains are structured and so it’s easy to understand great contributions to the domain quickly. A student can chime in with a groundbreaking idea and professor may be able to evaluate it on the spot. (Eg. physics). Others are diffuse and so insights take many years to properly evaluate. (Eg. personality psychology).</p>

<p>Interesting framing on culture. Culture is something that rank orders attention. If all paintings are equally worthwhile, there is no culture. This is inherently a competitive process.</p>

<h1>Traits of creative people</h1>

<p><strong>Curiosity</strong> is a key trait found in all interview subjects. If you don’t remain curious, you are unlikely to persevere in adversity (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/What_can_increase_curiosity">What can increase curiosity</a>). Many people in the sample tended to follow their interests (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Follow_your_interests">Follow your interests</a>).</p>

<p>Many were the beneficiaries of <strong>cultural capital</strong> from their upbringing. Coming from a family of books and broad interests all lead to an advantage.</p>

<p>Also you needed a <strong>basic amount of social skills</strong> to enter into a field and convince people of your worth. Even Isaac Newton, notorious for his antisocial ways, had to convince an early mentor of his promise.</p>

<p><strong>Creative personality?</strong> Not really a thing, argues the author. But he thinks that people that are creative tend to have a complex personality, containing <strong>multitudes of personas within one individual</strong>. They are often able to express a lot of different emotions and be a bit unpredictable. This resonates and reminds me of AC and AK and IB and other great designers I've worked with.</p>

<p><strong>Contradictory traits</strong>: According to Jung, every strong suit has a shadowy side. This is very clearly an inspiration for Joe Edelman and well expressed in the game we played at HumSys called <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Out_of_Character_game">Out of Character game</a>. The author provides a list of contradictory traits that a creative person typically has. Ordinarily this would be asinine, but the way this is presented in the book is generative and not prescriptive.</p>

<p>Importantly, it’s not about striking a bland balance in between the two poles, but about knowing when to practice each extreme, and be flexible in switching between the poles as needed. I found this to be very insightful. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Polarity_strategy_—_alternate_between_poles_rather_than_finding_middle_ground">Polarity strategy — alternate between poles rather than finding middle ground</a></p>

<ul>
<li>Energetic, yet able to scale back energy as needed. For the mood or the flexibility. Sexually driven yet practicing abstinence.</li>
<li>Smart enough to master a field but naive enough to ask probing questions that others might take for granted.</li>
<li>Able to practice both divergent and convergent thought. Flexibility and originality is important for divergence. But you still need to converge. Good judgement and recognizing a viable problem is extremely important there. If most people have a 5% success rate in their ideas but you can achieve 50%, you have a much higher chance of striking gold.</li>
<li>Playful but disciplined.</li>
<li>Introverted sometimes but extroverted at other times. You need time to focus and write, but also key to know the field and get feedback from peers.</li>
<li>Masculine and feminine features. Psychologically androgynous.</li>
<li>High highes and low lows. More pleasure, fun, excitement about the intrinsic pleasure of the process of doing the work. Simultaneously, after the euphoria of completion expires or when you are blocked (eg. Writers block), there are low lows.</li>
</ul>

<p>Important: you can’t just seek novelty. To strive to be unique is to be like anything BUT something. This is a negative framing and rarely generative. Similar critiques to postmodernism (not modernism), and denazification. (See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Positive_visions_are_necessary">Positive visions are necessary</a>)</p>

<h1>Creative process</h1>

<ol>
<li>Prepare</li>
<li>Be fortunate while slacking</li>
<li>Synthesize</li>
</ol>

<p><strong>Inspiration from real life</strong>. Writers and poets are often inspired by important events in their life. Usually suffering. Artists often take copious cut outs of visuals they find in the world. Scientists have a less direct connection from experiences. But early experiences often drive people into the field. Maybe they aren’t athletic. Or naturally gravitate towards books. More specific examples:</p>

<ul>
<li>Planck, Heisenberg, driven by a sense of awe from exposure to the outdoors and tall peaks and night sky.</li>
<li>Linus Pauling inspired by his father's pharmacy combining two substances into a totally new one.</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Presented vs. discovered problems</strong>. This is a great framework, which is very similar to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Hill_climbing_vs_hill_finding">Hill climbing vs hill finding</a>. Many creative people discover problems, and this requires a certain amount of slack.</p>

<p><strong>The need for slack</strong>: why do we need slack at all? It seems that Many creative people tend to sleep on a problem, or take a long break between hard bouts of work, or favoring silent walks and drives to work, or going for a run to take a break… and that is when the insight comes. Something happens when the mind is given a chance to rest. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Resilient_systems_need_slack">Resilient systems need slack</a>.</p>

<p>(Note to self: I don’t do this enough. I’m always listening to something in my downtime. I should enjoy more quiet walks.)</p>

<p>Why does this happen? Maybe it's the same thing that happens when you sleep? Sleep cements connections that matter, and cleans up others that don't (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Sleep_has_a_profound_effect_on_memory_and_learning">Sleep has a profound effect on memory and learning</a>)</p>

<p>So much creativity comes from combining ideas from different domains. Even the electronic fuel controllers for jet engines invented by Frank Offner came from synthesizing ideas from cybernetics with physics!</p>

<h1>Flow</h1>

<p>Csikszentimihalyi is most famous for his book called Flow, and it's woven into this book, but feels a bit out of place (full list <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Csikszentimihalyi's_flow">Csikszentimihalyi's flow</a> for reference).</p>

<p>The secret to life is to experience flow from as many things as possible. Then everything you do will be worth doing for its own sake. Conditions of flow are often met in games. Related to the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Game_mindfulness_—_detect_games_around_you">Game mindfulness — detect games around you</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Internalize the field</strong> Key ability: internalize the field to have a good sense for what the field will accept and what they will not. Have a lot of ideas and then critically have a good razor for separating those that are good from those that are not.</p>

<h1>Creativity and place</h1>

<p>People love going to nice places to do creative stuff. Aspen conference is at a world class resort. Salk institute is right on the beach. There is no evidence for or against physical beauty helping creativity, largely because there is no way to make such an RCT study happen.</p>

<p><strong>Creativity and walking</strong>. Perhaps a prepared mind will be more effective in a beautiful setting? Very speculative. Part of the benefit of walking is that your mind is focused on the surroundings, introducing more distraction. It adds slack. (I should do regular walking 1:1s with my in-person reports.)</p>

<p><strong>A space to be creative</strong>. Key for creativity: a special placed tailored to your needs, a place are comfortable and you are fully in control. (My house is desperately missing this.) Kenneth Golding worked from a cabin overlooking Rockies and used the hot tub regularly. Jonas Salk worked in a studio with a piano and an easel. Living a life of personal creativity seems like a worthy goal.</p>

<h1>New domains across disciplines</h1>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/True_creativity_unlocks_whole_new_fields">True creativity unlocks whole new fields</a></p>

<h1>Meandering paths</h1>

<p>Many creative people take a very indirect path to get to their ultimate destination. This is the thesis of Range as well.</p>

<p>Michael Snow, a famous Canadian artist, musician and composer is an example of someone that takes insights from one domain and applies them to others. He has touched film, installation, sculpture, photography, and music, a shocking breadth.</p>

<p>Ilya Romanovich <strong>Prigogine</strong> had a deep interest in music, art, and philosophy but was convinced to become a lawyer by his parents. So he studied law but wasn’t satisfied with its mechanistic applications. So he began studying the psychology and then neurochemistry of why people commit crimes. Finding this was too ambitious of a scope he refocused on the neurochemistry of cells. This led him to disapprove systems and his Nobel prize. What a polymath, dang. I'm only more impressed by the man. (See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Dissapative_far_from_equilibrium_systems">Dissapative far from equilibrium systems</a>).</p>

<h1>Developing creativity</h1>

<p>Stories of early precocity are often confirmatory. A sense of inner consistency demands that people who have achieved greatness should have done it from an early age. But in practice, it’s hard to predict if someone will become creative at a young age. One consistent pattern: curiosity and deep interests as young children.</p>

<p>In many cases parents play a key role. Treat your kid like a peer, an adult and don't talk to them.</p>

<p>Expose your kid to the vast variety of life at an early age. This is a key role of any good parent. This includes sports, arts, music, sciences, mathematics, travel, literature, etc. (Rhymes a lot with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Give_kids_a_sampling_period">Give kids a sampling period</a>)</p>

<p><strong>School</strong>: The effect of school is generally pretty negative or neutral. Not generally something that is recalled. But a teachers influence is often significant. They often push a gifted student towards their interests and at a level that exceeds that of the rest of the class. But not too hard so as to keep them interested. (I should focus on the teachers at our kids school as opposed to the school itself. How can I quickly evaluate them given the parent teacher limited time?) That said many great creative people didn’t have a specific teacher-muse they cited.</p>

<p><strong>The Teenage Years Suck</strong>: most creatives tend not to be too popular because they are engrossed with their interests. They might not be as sexually active and tend to spend more time “in the nest”. In most cases the peer group is not intellectual. Nobody in the group recalls teenage years fondly.</p>

<p><strong>Luck</strong>. World War II enabled many women to enter hard sciences because the men usually occupying the seats were all away fighting in the war.</p>

<p><strong>Stable family life</strong>. Also extremely important and common among creative people. Pauling's politically incorrect advice: find a wife that will just take care of all of the home life for you.</p>

<p><strong>Creative aging?</strong> Surprisingly many people interviewed had a pretty steady output from 30 onward. Some people peak towards end of life. Frank Lloyd Wright architected the Guggenheim at 70! (This does strike me as a bit self serving: firstly, the author is himself not young.)</p>

<p><strong>Crystallized intelligence</strong>: A decline in energy is common with age, but skills continue to get honed even at old age. You can sometimes think sharper and faster as a result of what the author calls "crystallized intelligence". Discipline and attitude also improves over age. Seasoned creative subjects had already achieved greatness, and so many experienced less pressure, and could be more trustful of their instincts.</p>

<p>One big challenge I resonate with is to find time to keep doing the core work, since people tend to accumulate administrative responsibilities with age.</p>

<h1>How to be more personally creative</h1>

<p>The narrative devolves into a case study and then closes as a self help book. Becoming Creative is tricky and dependent on many factors like match quality, and buy-in from your field. But you can reliably become more Personally Creative, which according to Mihaly is intrinsically fulfilling.</p>

<p>Specific advice for cultivating curiosity:</p>

<ol>
<li>Try to <strong>be surprised every day</strong>. Stop and look at the new car. Try a new dish. Actually listen to your colleague for a  Life is nothing but a stream of experiences. The more widely and deeply you swim in it, the richer it will be.</li>
<li>Try to <strong>surprise at least one person every day</strong>. Express an opinion you wouldn’t normally reveal. Ask a question you’d not normally ask. Break your routine: invite someone to a show! Experiment with your appearance. (Feels a bit edge lord)</li>
<li>Write down what surprised you and your most surprising action each evening. Review your notes weekly. (I think this is generic advice for keeping notes and in general I’m very much in favor.)</li>
<li>Follow sparks of interest broadly. Be open to learning. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Follow_your_interests">Follow your interests</a></li>
</ol>

<p>Self help continues. Try a randomly sampled diary to see what you enjoy and what you don’t enjoy. Do more things you enjoy and fewer things you don’t enjoy. (At this point the advice becomes a bit farcical, and I can't help but wonder if reading a book about how to become more creative is a bit like reading a book about how to get better at your tennis serve. My point is that creativity feels very tacit and requiring praxis.)</p>

<p>Anyway I think his framing of personality change is somewhat unattractive. For me the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Strength_is_a_skill">Strength is a skill</a> framing is generative here. It’s better to think of these things as skills than tweaks to one’s personality. Here are 3 in particular:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>Learn to foster traits that are complimentary to your main mode. If introverted, see what it’s like to be extroverted. What are the pros and cons of each? What feels good about it? What scares you about it? Again, <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Out_of_Character_game">Out of Character game</a> is a great way to deliberately practice this.</p></li>
<li><p>Especially important for creativity is the ability to switch between convergent and divergent modes of thinking. See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Diverge_and_converge_modes_of_thinking">Diverge and converge modes of thinking</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Aim for complexity. Too much integration means you are a caricature of yourself; easily predicted and one dimensional. Too simple. Too much differentiation means too end up being just a random assortment of unrelated ideas. Too chaotic. See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Cynefin_framework">Cynefin framework</a>.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Interesting tidbit on relationships: it’s important to be able to shift moment by moment from our own viewpoint to that of another.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>We can see depth only because looking with two eyes give us slightly different perspectives. How much deeper can we see when instead of two eyes we rely on four?</p>
</blockquote>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>May Links</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/may-links/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-05-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-05-31.jpg" alt="Generated image of The Little Prince surfing and catching the golden snitch" /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://nasjaq.substack.com/p/the-terrapunk-manifesto">The Terrapunk Manifesto</a> (<em>Nasjaq</em>) — A critical look at the Solarpunk movement, which the author argues is fundamentally about stagnation, promoted as harmony. Terrapunk is a more progress-centric bouquet of beliefs, with an emphasis on human ingenuity, nuclear energy, and a multi-planetary future.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-17/elon-musk-henry-ford-and-the-cost-of-stardom">Elon Musk Is Acting Like Henry Ford</a> (<em>Bloomberg</em>) — After his initial success, Henry Ford purchased a failing newspaper and promulgated his anti-semitic views, and drove a way his most capable lieutenants, replacing them with sycophants. His empire was ultimately dethroned by Alfred P. Sloan, an MIT trained engineer who eventually assumed control of GM and pioneered consumer financing. Will Musk suffer a similar fate?</li>
<li><a href="https://neddonovan.substack.com/p/the-department-store-that-was-once">The Department Store That Was Once a Country</a> (<em>Ned Donovan</em>) — Chronicles the rich history of the Hudson's Bay Company, which was given a monopoly over nearly 4 million square kilometers in modern day Canada. The corporation created a new currency: the MB (Made Beaver), fixed prices against it, outlawed private trading, and ran a psyop that their land was horrible and deadly.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/human-progress-invention-eureka-myth/629811/">The Forgotten Stage of Human Progress</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — Derek Thompson continues his clarion call to implement what we’ve already invented, such as more nuclear power plants. Human progress is not just one damn breakthrough after another. It's not a neat tech tree but a messy tangle of invention, refinement, partial implementation, and political negotiation.</li>
<li><a href="https://parpa.substack.com/p/when-should-an-idea-that-smells-like">When Should an Idea That Smells Like Research Be a Startup?</a> (<em>Ben Reinhardt</em>) — Ben argues that venture backed startups are often not a great fit for doing research, which often takes a long and unpredictable amount of time. You either need a "money factory", or a charismatic leader to convince everybody else that there is in fact a critical path long enough to find it.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-watergen-provides-water-from-air-units-in-former-is-hq-raqqa/">Israel’s Watergen Provides ‘Water-From-Air’ Units to Medical Facility in Syria</a> (<em>Times of Israel</em>) — The Watergen generator, powered by solar energy, converts droplets of moisture from the air into clean water. It's being trialed in Gaza to provide fresh water, since the overused acquifer has been degraded by saltwater intrusion and contaminated by pollutants.</li>
<li><a href="https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/just-stop-apologizing?s=r">Just Stop Apologizing</a> (<em>Freddie deBoer</em>) — deBoer points out a core hypocrisy in many progressive communities: restorative justice is embraced as a core value, yet people that transgress the norms of that community and then apologize profusely are not themselves afforded any restorative justice.</li>
<li><a href="https://mysticalsilicon.substack.com/p/my-summary-of-tyler-cowens-approach?s=r">Tyler Cowen's Approach to Leading an Intellectually Fulfilling Life</a> (<em>David Gasca</em>) — Cowen is a prolific writer, podcaster, and infovore. His style of being a fox involves an insatiable curiosity, extensive travel, and in general sampling the best offerings from a variety of obscure fields.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-rise-and-fall-of-worlds-fairs-180979946/">The Rise and Fall of World's Fairs</a> <em>(Smithsonian Magazine)</em> — Tracks the evolution of world fairs from "the world's universities" in the 19th century to "sites of entertainment". In many ways, mega theme parks like Disney World EPCOT (Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow) are spiritual descendants of world fairs.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html">Russia's “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model</a> <em>(RAND Corporation)</em> — Modern Russian propaganda relies on a continuous barrage of invented and inconsistent information. It takes less time to make up facts than it does to verify them, and first impressions are very resilient. This is a wicked problem, argue the authors. Don't expect to "counter the firehose of falsehood with the squirt gun of truth".</li>
<li><a href="https://kk.org/thetechnium/103-bits-of-advice-i-wish-i-had-known/">103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known</a> <em>(Kevin Kelly)</em> — We don't usually fall for listicles, but Kevin Kelly recently turned 70 and dropped some unique 💎's.</li>
<li><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-ramez-naam-futurist-author">Interview: Ramez Naam, futurist, author, and investor</a> (<em>Noah Smith</em>) — A broad ranging interview with Mez, a treasure trove of information about energy and climate and their ramifications on politics, as well as feedback loops involved. Mez also teases emerging technology, like synthetic "electrofuels" and floating wind farms.</li>
<li><a href="https://medium.com/@ericmigi/why-pebble-failed-d7be937c6232">Why Pebble Failed</a> <em>(Eric Migicovsky)</em> — Almost a decade after it failed, the CEO of a promising smartwatch company wrote a postmortem highlighting the importance of product-market fit, of having a well communicated long-term vision, and the value of a good marketing team.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The End of Eternity by Isaac Asimov</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-end-of-eternity-by-isaac-asimov"/>
    
    <updated>2022-05-11T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Truly masterful, this book. The way Harlan wants to control Noys mirrors perfectly the way the Eternals want to control reality. Just like Harlan takes her for himself by transporting her to the 100,000th century,</p>

<p>Asimov's views are super complex. Much more complex than the one dimensional technologist I tend to associate with him. Maybe he has suffered more than I thought in light of his habits as a womanizer. But he has many interesting takes, and Noys is not nearly as simple as she initially seems, and is revealed to be the one in charge. Asimov does espouse a certain inevitability of progress. Though mathematician's names change as a result of Reality changes, the nature of math doesn’t. And it all appears to move in lockstep. And he does initially seem like he believes that humans are bound to kill ourselves unless subjected to some kind paternalism. At the end, it's a much more complex and interesting take on both progress and women.</p>

<p>I initially found a certain lack of imagination on Asimov's part when Harlan is described traveling between centuries. Surely the vast timespan would yield a far greater variety of interesting societies than those found in the book? Like the cultural mores and the living conditions feel a bit too cyclical and predictable. This is partly explained by the mass duplicator though, a nice touch! Even more impressively, this is explained when the whole thrust of the book is explained: Reality over all Time is made safe and homogenous by the Allwhen Council's interventions.</p>

<p>I love how precarious Reality feels in the book. I feel a similar precarity in our own reality today. We are just a hair away from collapse, and we keep squeaking by. Why? Perhaps the Eternals are watching…</p>

<h1>World building</h1>

<p>Asimov invented a compelling and original concept to tackle time travel.</p>

<p>There is our regular flow of time: Time, Reality. And in parallel, there is Eternity, which lets Eternals travel to any Time in Reality and return back to Eternity using a device hilariously called a Kettle.</p>

<p>The top Eternal brass sits in the Allwhen Council. This council consists of Computers, who back in 1955 when the book was written, were people that did math. They make mathematical models of Reality, and intervene in it to prevent societal collapse. They aim for changing as little as possible, while averting calamity and keeping humanity on the right track throughout the ages. In their technical lingo, they make the Minimal Necessary Change (MNC) to achieve the Maximal Desired Response (MDR). Cute!</p>

<p>Eternals still age on their own timeline, in "physioyears". It’s just that Eternity is completely disconnected from the specific year in Time you happen have been born in. They are carefully selected for and plucked from Reality at a young age, swearing a solemn vow to leave their old life behind. They are supposed to be perfect beings, but in practice are extremely flawed individuals.</p>

<p>Eternals also facilitate trade between centuries in Reality. This becomes especially interesting when one century wants a cancer curing drug from another century. The fact that all of these cancer patients would no longer die poses big problems for the eternals. Such a huge change could not be permitted by the Allwhen Council.</p>

<p>Any interactions with Reality is precarious. Eternals are careful to avoid making accidental changes. A change typically has high impact on subsequent centuries, but its impact reduces the further into the future you go.</p>

<h1>Live-streamed impressions</h1>

<p>As I read this book, I took notes describing where I expected the story would go. I was wrong every time. Obviously, spoilers abound, but you knew that already. Here are some such notes:</p>

<ul>
<li>Looks like the protagonist Andrew just got a girl Noys pregnant though… this’ll be fun</li>
<li>Interesting… it seems to have turned even more radically. The one MNC that the protagonist found himself involved in caused his beloved Noys to disappear completely.</li>
<li>At this point I’m convinced that Finge is just testing the protagonist to see if he has what it takes to graduate to the next level.</li>
<li>No— another twist. (It’s fascinating to record my own reaction to the book as I read it). Apparently Finge is merely pointing out a flaw in Noys' matriarchal society, which believes that Eternals live forever and so seduces Harlan in a calculated way. (Is Finge really motivated to annoy Harlan or is he driven by his own job? I suspect the latter and Harlan is just immature.)</li>
<li>Does Asimov see the problem with leaving Noys thousands of centuries in the future all alone? Seems extremely lonely, although I guess Harlan’s visits can be arbitrarily frequent? Or can they if she’s in eternity? Do they share the same physiological time since they are both in eternity?</li>
<li>After travel is blocked beyond the 100,000 century. Why is Harlan so convinced of his importance? Is it an immature petulance and overconfidence? What secret weapon does he hide that he could use against the Council of Allwhen?</li>
<li>Nice — so it’s not just petulance. Instead Harlan has been thinking behind the scenes of the book. He deduced (in a twist) that Eternity would be impossible as described by the historical events of the chronicle. Because of his familiarity with “primitive history” he found The math required to understand time travel in the 24th century was unavailable until the 27th. And Harlan’s role is to coach a pupil who will in fact travel to the 24th to create this “original sin” of time travel.</li>
<li>Asimov's broadly concerned for continued human existence. We are bound to kill ourselves unless subjected to some kind paternalism. Every time we invent nuclear weapons…</li>
<li>Onto these “hidden centuries” in the distant future where there is only eternity and no Reality. What’s that about? It’s hinted at at the start but hardly at all until this “limbo” state that Harlan and Twissel end up in. And why are they alone for days? Where did everyone else go?</li>
<li>I didn’t have a great guess as to why Harlan is unable to travel past the 100,000th century, but Twissel did. He speculated that Eternity actively prevents human evolution, because the Eternals make sure that nothing goes wrong. But what does it mean for something to “go wrong”? And so the Eternals are just conservative and insist on nothing ever changing. This is why Twissel from the 30,000th century is nearly identical to Harlan from the 95th. Eternity stopped evolution.</li>
<li>And so, with this in mind, Twissel speculates that future humans from the hidden centuries deliberately thwarted Eternity’s meddling with them so that the natural order of things can be resumed. But is this speculation? There appears to be no barrier anymore!</li>
<li>Harlan’s tantrum when he feels like he was turned into a marionette by some mysterious force that blocked him from traveling back into the 100,000th centuries to see Noys is a great piece of drama. He is so blind to his own shortcomings!</li>
<li>Wow man, this book is so insanely full of twists. Now it is Noys who is the post-Eternal that was actually pulling all the strings? She was the one that setup Finge and Harlan and Twissel and played them off one another? I looked back in the book even, and it’s true: she did stop the kettle at the exactly 111,394, very subtly.</li>
<li>Noys' explanation is an interesting one and ties to another mysterious previously mentioned in the novel: that of space faring. The fact that Eternity had such a skeptical attitude to space faring and actively prevented humans from engaging in it, led to a situation where humanity was earthbound, while other intelligent beings were colonizing our galaxy. As a result, people were capable of space travel, but stuck on a prison planet (a dim vision - seems like a stretch). Asimov indirectly argues for the intrinsic benefit of humanity eventually becoming a multi-planetary civilization.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Time travel is hard</h1>

<p>I was almost thrilled that this was a time travel story without paradox. But of course it’s not! For example this business with an infinite time loop of Cooper/Mallahsohn needing to travel from the future to 2317 is completely problematic! If this indeed happens a bunch of times, would it happen an infinite number of times? And what if there’s any deviation any of those times? The whole thing is too unstable.</p>

<p>Fascinating solution to the paradox problem of seeing yourself in reality: if this event happens you trigger an automatic change to prevent it from ever happening. So it can never be you that you see in reality. Kind of a clean solution, but definitely suffers from all of the known issues with time travel.</p>

<h1>Connections</h1>

<p>I see a lot of echoes of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Greatness_Cannot_Be_Planned">Greatness Cannot Be Planned</a> and overall Eternity follows <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Authoritarian_High-Modernist_Recipe_for_Failure">The Authoritarian High-Modernist Recipe for Failure</a>. The ultimate failure of Eternity is the usual: a group of flawed humans making centralized decisions about the future on behalf of all of humanity. In fact, at one point, in conversation with Harlan, Twissel reveals his complete ignorance of markets. This is even more pronounced in the 1987 Soviet rendition of the book, in which the Allwhen Council is transparently portrayed as a group of stooges sitting at the Supreme Soviet.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Noys said: In ironing out the disasters of Reality, Eternity rules out the triumphs as well. It is in meeting the great tests that mankind can most successfully rise to great heights.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>To which Harlan woodenly replies “The greatest good for the greatest…”, a great illustration of some limitations of utilitarianism.</p>

<p>The end is a bit rushed and marred with overly complex time loops, but overall a great work!</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Genesis by ✨ translated by Robert Alter</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/genesis-by-translated-by-robert-alter"/>
    
    <updated>2022-05-01T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Genesis is not so much a book, but an “accretion of sundry traditions, shot through with disjunctions and contradictions, and accumulated in an uneven editorial process over several centuries”. The Hebrew word for book, “Sefer” actually translates more to scroll than to book, and scrolls are much more fungible than books. A scroll can be stitched to another scroll, split, and spliced, and rarely has named attribution. Not a coherent artwork by a single author, Genesis is more like a cathedral of medieval Europe, the product of many hands, involving an elaborate process of editing, like the greatest Hollywood films.</p>

<p>Main sources of compilation include {Y/J}ahwist (J), Elohistic (E), and Priestly (P) source documents. J and E might be contemporary and early, P dates to about 6th century BCE. But all is hotly debated.</p>

<p>The translator lambastes his contemporary commentators for being too focused on the sourcing and not sufficiently focused on analyzing the material itself, while refining medieval commentators like Rashi &amp; Abraham bin Ezra.</p>

<p>Genesis split into primeval history (1-11) and a focus on the past, how this all came to be, told in a formal, repetitive way. Bulk of the book is patriarchal tales (12-50) which is focused on the future, promising long-term national greatness etc. Here the style changes, becomes much more concerned with human affairs, emotions, feuds, violence, and constant struggle.</p>

<p>The narrative arc is really clean: “Genesis begins with the making heaven and earth and all life, and ends with the image of a mummy — Joseph’s — in a coffin.”</p>

<hr />

<h1>Themes and surprises</h1>

<p><strong>Nomads vs. farmers</strong>: The story of Cain and Abel is about the superiority of the noble nomadic herdsmen (Abel) over the terrible and evil sedentary farmers (Cain). Echoes of this later “for every shepherd is abhorrent to Egypt” (46:34)</p>

<p><strong>Displacement of the firstborn</strong> Cain and Abel is also the start of the theme of how the firstborn often gets screwed, despite their birth order. Similar story with Esau and Jacob.</p>

<p><strong>Not children of Cain</strong>: I wrongly thought that humans were descended from Cain. No — Cain and Abel had a third brother, Seth.</p>

<p><strong>Antediluvian ages</strong>: Methuselah, known for his long life, was 969 years old, but that is only moderately impressive in the grand scheme of things. Adam died at the ripe old age of 930, his son Seth at 912. Cain died young at 730.</p>

<p><strong>Magical beings</strong>: What the heck are the Nephilim (6:1)?</p>

<p><strong>Sexual mystery</strong>: What is it that Canaan actually did to his grandfather Noah when he became drunk? (9:20)</p>

<p><strong>Abram's military conquest</strong>: Chedorlaomer, king of Elam (what a name!) abducted Lot and his crew, and Abram had to raise an army of 318 people and wage war to bail him out!</p>

<p><strong>Abram's ritual</strong>: in 15:15, Abram cleaves his farm animals in twain, leaves the halves in some sort of bizarre ritual. He then falls into a deep slumber. He wards off carrion birds, and sees smoke and fire. No drugs involved?</p>

<p><strong>Ishmael's short stick</strong>: Shockingly disparaging of Ishmael "He shall be a wild ass of a man; His hand against everyone, And everyone’s hand against him"</p>

<p><strong>Barely monotheism:</strong> El Elyon, El-Roi, El Shaddai, God Most High. There are so many different Semitic gods fused into one here. Sometimes god is referred to Elohim (literally "gods" — plural). Jewish Monotheism is clearly only just emerging in these passages.</p>

<p><strong>Surrogate slave mothers</strong>: Ishmael was born to Abraham from Hagar (Sarah's servant). And only two of Jacob's children were born to him from Rebeca.</p>

<p><strong>Lot and his daughters</strong>: Lot unambiguously offered up his own virgin daughters to be raped in the angels’ stead (19:7). Later, he and his virgin daughters settled in a cave, and then had children via their own father (19:31). Deeply disturbed.</p>

<p><strong>Hands and thighs</strong>: apparently cupping someone else's genitals or at least putting your hand near there is part of the act of solemn oath taking in ancient societies (24:2). This also happens when Jacob asks Joseph to bury him with the other patriarchs (47:29).</p>

<p><strong>Apocryphal camels</strong>: The translator suggests that camels in the bible are not actually historical. Archaeological evidence suggests that they weren’t adapted to the climate until several centuries after the patriarchal period.</p>

<p><strong>Named wells:</strong> Water is extremely important in the desert. Water rights are key, and Abraham battles Abimelech over this (21:22). Wells are so important, the wells have names (26:17)</p>

<p><strong>Wells and betrothals</strong>: Abraham's servant meets Rebekah (betrothed to Isaac) at a well (24:14). Later, Jacob meets Rachel at a well (29:10). In Exodus Moses meets Zipporah in the same manner.</p>

<p><strong>Laban is a real slimeball</strong>: Such a greedy dude, obsessed with jewlery (24:30), and then tricks Jacob into working him for 14 years. And still Jacob was unable to take his harem (2 wives, 2 slave girls, 9 children) without asking Laban’s permission (30:29). Quite the scene with Laban furious over his stolen idol, in which Jacob inadvertently condemns his beloved to death (31:32), followed by another gem, in which Rachel sits on a cushion concealing the stolen figurine and pleading to her father that she has menses and cannot get up. (31:35).</p>

<p><strong>Girl names</strong>: anyone looking for a biblical name for their baby girl? I recommend Oholibamah. There is also Basemath, although I guess it’s pronounced bass-seh-mat. Or consider Mehetabel.</p>

<p><strong>Boy names</strong>: highly recommend naming them like Benjamin did. And he had a lot of kids: Bella and Beecher and Ashbel, Gera and Naaman, Ehi and Rosh, <strong>Muppim and Huppim</strong> and Ard.</p>

<p><strong>Juda* the traitor</strong>: Judah sells his brother (37:20), and Judas sells his brother Jesus Christ.</p>

<p><strong>Tamar and Judah</strong>: Tamar is I guess fixated on getting a son by Judah’s lineage (Er) one way or another, so in desperation dresses like a whore and seduces Judah. Is it normal for Judah to go whoring? (38:16)</p>

<p><strong>Joseph the autist</strong>: “And look” is Joseph’s signature childish excitement. He seems to have no ability to read the room. No wonder his brothers hated him so much! (41:1)</p>

<p><strong>Jacob and Joseph were embalmed</strong>: Jacob was embalmed (50:3), and Joseph was even mummified and placed in a coffin (50:26). Surprisingly Egyptian for a forefather.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>April Links</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/april-links/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-04-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-04-30.jpg" alt="Generated image of a codex with helicopters." /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/opinion/oscars-movies-end.html">We Aren’t Just Watching the Decline of the Oscars. We’re Watching the End of the Movies</a> <em>(NYTimes)</em> — Sensationally titled, Douthat gestures at the declining cultural importance of movies, and speculates convincingly about their likely relegation to a stable but niche role like that of theatre, opera, or ballet.</li>
<li><a href="https://aestheticsforbirds.com/2017/09/21/against-rotten-tomatoes/">Against Rotten Tomatoes</a> (<em>Aesthetics for Birds</em>) — Matt Strohl argues that crowdsourced movie rankings the Tomatometer are "mostly a bad thing". Designed to punish bad movies, they also punishes bold and distinct ones, reducing creative risk taking.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-can-feel-my-heart-hardening-as-the-war-goes-on">I Can Feel My Heart Hardening as the War Goes on</a> (<em>The Spectator</em>) — Pomerantsev considers the parallels the biblical story of Exodus to Russia's genocidal war on Ukraine as he travels home to celebrate Passover in his hometown Kiev. In particular, he wrestles with the puzzle of how to keep your humanity while killing a genocidal enemy.</li>
<li><a href="https://linotype.substack.com/p/the-insidious-cultural-relativism?s=r">The insidious cultural relativism of failure</a> (<em>Linotype</em>) — Stefano argues that it's much easier to climb down a hill if you are confident that the world is full of many hills. However if you think it’s not so full of hills it’s insane to climb down from your comfortable perch!</li>
<li><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-elon-musk-bought-twitter">Why Elon Musk Bought Twitter</a> (<em>New Yorker</em>) — Twitter is just one of many games Elon Musk is addicted to (we're living in a simulation, right?). Historically, he has created value for his companies by being unhinged on Twitter, but this is a dangerous game since many high-profile people have gotten in trouble for their tweets. Time to fix it!</li>
<li><a href="https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/galaxy-brain/626c8c4e12500c0020ca5f5b/twitter-elon-musk-meme-tweet-debates/">Elon Musk Is Already Grinding Us Down</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — Warzel highlights two dark patterns on twitter, which are likely to be amplified by Musk's changes: 1) The dominance of pithy, short, reductive utterances (memes) over chains of informative tweets (tweetstorms), and 2) The tendency to race to quickly reply to high profile tweets, in order for the reply to be placed in the valuable real estate below.</li>
</ul>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Ministry for the Future</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/ministry-for-the-future"/>
    
    <updated>2022-04-22T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>The Ministry for the Future opens with an emotional and memorable vignette. Frank, an American doctor on a mission to Rajasthan, finds himself in the middle of a monstrous heatwave. Wet bulb temperatures reach a point that is no longer survivable by humans. He and many others try to seek shelter in a lake, but it is warmer than the air. Thousands die, but he miraculously survives. Frank is emotionally scarred for the rest of his life.</p>

<p>After the strong opening, Ministry veers away from its narrative roots. A nominal plot remains, but is secondary to the author’s intent. Instead KSR takes the reader on a tour of various contemporary considerations to do with climate change. He talks about high wet bulb temperatures leading to hyperthermia, discusses the limitations of the GDP as a metric for measuring progress, accuses the unwashed masses of voting against their self interests (a pet peeve of mine, see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Voting_against_narrow_self-interests_in_post-scarcity">Voting against narrow self-interests in post-scarcity</a>). KSR reminds us about Jevon’s paradox, and posits that wealthier people are less happy than their poorer peers. He even goes on weird tangents that never get resolved, like the one about <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Lamed-Vav_Tzadikim">Lamed-Vav Tzadikim</a>.</p>

<p>Ministry is a fine introduction to climate adjacent issues in a more digestible form. But I found the bait-and-switch aspect downright annoying. I sought a novel (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Power_of_Fiction">Power of Fiction</a>), but instead found a series of didactic asides.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Grand Transitions by Vaclav Smil</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/grand-transitions-by-vaclav-smil"/>
    
    <updated>2022-04-08T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Up front approach is interesting. Having worked with Jay Forester at MIT on early modeling, Smil is not a big believer in models.</p>

<p>Instead of simple models Smil takes a more contingent, event based approach to the topic. Some things progress in an evolutionary way. But others are dependent on human action and sudden unexpected discontinuities. Even the title “Grand Transitions” harkens to a punctuated equilibrium view of progress.</p>

<p>Smil alludes to the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Expected_vs_unexpected_inventions">Expected vs unexpected inventions</a> framing I first heard from Clarke (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Profiles_of_the_Future_by_Arthur_Clarke">Profiles of the Future by Arthur Clarke</a>). He thinks that information scaling inventions like the printing press and the internet tend are especially likely to have unexpected consequences and break existing models.</p>

<h1>S curves everywhere</h1>

<p>Reminiscent of Perez in her <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Installation_vs_deployment_phases_of_innovation_(Carlotta_Perez)">Installation vs deployment phases of innovation (Carlotta Perez)</a>, Smil sees S-curves everywhere and warns about over-extrapolating exponential growth. Reminds me that <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Forecasting_s-curves_is hard">Forecasting s-curves is hard</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Human ➡ animal ➡ machine power</strong>: draft horses peak in 1910 at 20 million draft horses in the US and are then obsoleted by mechanical tractors, but this transition takes decades. As they grow, populations of draft horses and tractors form S curves:</p>

<p><strong>Transatlantic travel</strong> only became possible in the 15th century. Then sailing frigates took about a month to cross. Steam powered ships that would eventually take an order of magnitude less time (Lucitania in 4 days). This transition took a century around 1830-1930. Then the transition to jet air travel, yielded a further reduction of 1.5 orders of magnitude (5h). This was a much faster transition of just a decade or so in the 1950s.</p>

<p>But not all “epochal transitions” pan out as S-curves. Some exponential growth turns out to be a false start in retrospect.</p>

<p><strong>Early electric cars</strong> were the first and most promising ground transport in the late 19th century. The first car to reach 100 km/h was electric. Edison bet big on them but gas internal combustion won instead. Smil doesn’t elaborate as to why but I suspect energy density has a big role to play (more on this later). It isn’t until now that the epochal transition to EVs is underway. But predictions are such that we won’t have majority electric on the roads until at least 2040.</p>

<p><strong>Nuclear energy generation</strong> is another example of a false start that looks even more bleak. Peaking at 17% of global energy output, current projections are just 4% of global energy by 2040. Culprits appear to be going over budget and safety. Also see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Nuclear_power_is_hampered_by_regulation_(ALARA)">Nuclear power is hampered by regulation (ALARA)</a>.</p>

<h1>Demographic transitions</h1>

<p>The developed world is characterized by a shift in equilibrium from high fertility and high mortality to a new one, balancing low fertility and low mortality.</p>

<p><strong>Demographic dividend</strong> refers to the benefit a polity experiences when the majority of its citizens are of working age. The ratio of working population (20-65) to their dependents (young and old) is an interesting metric to track. A society with high mortality and high fertility has an young average age, and many young dependents. As mortality and fertility decrease, the average citizen is of working age and the society reaches a stage of development that pays a high demographic dividend because many workers support few dependents. In next equilibrium, the average population becomes old and once again there are many dependents.</p>

<p><strong>Median ages vary hugely per country</strong>. The Japanese median age is 47.3, while the Guatemalan median age is 22.1. The demographic dividend will be greatly advantageous to young countries (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age">chart</a>).</p>

<p>Smil is pretty pessimistic about lifespan extension because he sees it as an S-curve that tapers out at around 80 years old. Increased societal longevity should definitely come with an older retirement age!</p>

<p>Japan leads the way here and is projected to be depopulating at a huge rate. 120 M now. 100 M by 2050. 88 M stable state. Villages are shrinking.</p>

<p><strong>Urban vs rural footprints</strong>: Smil criticizes cities for being terrible polluters. This directly contradicts the common wisdom that cities and dense living is far more efficient per-capita. Isn’t it actually quite good to be in a city because of the benefits of proximity?</p>

<p>Smil's argument is that cities are actually worse per capita from an environment perspective. A villager that moves to town may have been used to one light per room but now has a bigger TV. Another urban downside is that heat islands are 3-8 degrees higher in cities.</p>

<p>Which one is right?</p>

<p><strong>Humans win mammal population density</strong>: 50k humans / square km density in parts of Manila is equivalent to 2kg of human biomass per square m. This is than for any mammal.</p>

<h1>Economic transitions</h1>

<p>Although agriculture is only 0.7% of the GDP, it is underrated: “Let those economists live off the main sector of GDP: financial services,” quips Smil.</p>

<p><strong>Agriculture improvements</strong>: Huge yield gains. Lots of automation in food production, clear when you consider output in terms of time per weight of output. (Interesting idea: use agriculture as a terminus for <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Asimov's_Tech_Tree">Asimov's Tech Tree</a>)</p>

<ul>
<li>1800: 7 minutes per kilogram of wheat. Tools: two oxen, a wood plow, brush harrows, sickles to cut, flails to thresh.</li>
<li>1900: 25 seconds per kilogram of wheat, an 18x improvement. heavy horses, a steel gang plow led by a team, iron tooth harrows, seed drill, horse drawn combine for harvesting and threshing.</li>
<li>2000: 6 seconds per kilogram, a 4x improvement. Large tractors are equivalent to 500 horses, high capacity combines.</li>
</ul>

<p>Farming trends:</p>

<ul>
<li>Specialization: 5 crops per farm in 1900 -> 1.1 crops per farm in 2000.</li>
<li>Centralization: fewer but larger farms.</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Energy subsidies</strong>: Modern agriculture requires a lot of additional energy beyond just the natural sunlight, in the form of fertilizer, irrigation, fuel for farm equipment. 4% of global energy goes to these energy subsidies. Without them, we couldn’t feed the current population of 7.5B.</p>

<p><strong>Animals are especially energy-intensive</strong>: Based on this line of thinking, animals cost a lot more based on just the energy required to produce the feed. Animals also require structures and maintenance of those structures. And there are additional costs around transportation.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/History_of_crop_rotation_technology">History of crop rotation technology</a></p>

<p><strong>Fertilizers and side effects</strong>: Guano was used as early fertilizer. By 1824, there was an active Peruvian import business. Nitrate was the first inorganic fertilizer. Use of Fertilizers meant crops grow better and are more attractive to pests. Thus, insecticides.</p>

<p><strong>Feeding draft animals</strong>: There is a complex relationship between draft animals, and the feed they require which detracts from crop yields. More than half of all food production is animal feed (!). Smil suggests that animals could be far more sustainable if they were allowed to graze naturally.</p>

<p>(There's a nice opportunity to explain these things using feedback loops, along the lines of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Horses,_peasant_mobility_and_urbanization">Horses, peasant mobility and urbanization</a>. Just like in the middle ages, draft animals and farm mobility in general cuts across all these aspects: planting, harvesting with combines, and transportation.</p>

<p><strong>Animal mass to feed ratios</strong>: A metric to measure the efficiency of animal protein production. Input is weight of feed, output is the animal weight that can be consumed.</p>

<ul>
<li>Chickens: 3:1 (3 kg and feed produces 1 kg of chicken)</li>
<li>Pork: 9:1</li>
<li>Beef: 25:1</li>
</ul>

<p>For aquaculture it’s 3:1 but varies with species. For example, it's 1.8 for farmed Atlantic Salmon.</p>

<p><strong>Dietary patterns</strong>: Two major attractors for dietary patterns as societies become more affluent.</p>

<ol>
<li>Western-style 3200 kcal per day and 30% of calories from animal products.</li>
<li>Mediterranean/Asian style has fewer calories per day (2400 kcal) and less reliance on animal products.</li>
</ol>

<p>Remarkable stats in Japan. Rice intake (by weight) went from 60-70 percent in 1950 to just 20% today. Now the Japanese diet is more dairy than rice (by calories) and this shift in just 50 years post WW2.</p>

<p>Smil is genuinely impressed with the long way we’ve come on ending malnutrition and famines, though a combination of increased farming efficiency and science (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/List_of_micronutrients_and_deficiencies_in_humans">List of micronutrients and deficiencies in humans</a>). But he's miffed that this truly amazing story gets so little airtime in terms of “great innovations to celebrate” compared to smartphones and Steve Jobs and as he disparagingly puts it “putting new cardboard on electronics manufactured in China”.</p>

<p>This reminds me a lot of this idea from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/What_can_a_technologist_do_to_accelerate_electrification">What can a technologist do to accelerate electrification</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The inconveniences of daily life are not the significant problems. The world that scrolls past you on Twitter is not the real world.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Energy transitions</h1>

<p>The usual energy progression is this:</p>

<ol>
<li>Wood</li>
<li>Coal</li>
<li>Oil</li>
<li>Gas</li>
</ol>

<p>Smil tracks the dates at which each country transitioned from mostly X to mostly Y. Transition years vary widely by country. England moved to coal very early and this catalyzed the Industrial Revolution.</p>

<p>Some countries and regions skipped whole steps, for example going straight from wood burning to oil and never ramping up and coal industry, or jumping directly to hydroelectricity.</p>

<p><strong>Transportation</strong>: There's an impressive increase in shipping container payload: from 100 twenty foot equivalent unit (TEU) in 1950 to 23,000 TEU in 2020.</p>

<p><strong>Kerosene vs. diesel vs. gasoline, etc</strong>: Oil (aka Petroleum) is generally found as a yellowish-brown liquid in geological formations. It can then be refined into a variety of fuels. Kerosene (aka paraffin) is the basis for airplane fuel. Diesel fuel has many applications from small engines powering a private car to large marine engines. There are many other kinds of petroleum based fuel types, including Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) which powers some of the largest container ships.</p>

<p><strong>Air travel</strong>: Kilometers traveled per passenger is a useful metric for quantifying air travel. It's hard to predict where this S-curve will level out.</p>

<p><strong>Horses vs oxen</strong>: Smil estimate of horse power vs ox power is surprising. 7x human for horse and only 2.5x human for ox?! This is surprising, since I read elsewhere (<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Medieval_Technology_and_Social_Change_by_Lynn_White">Medieval Technology and Social Change by Lynn White</a>) that horses were quite weak compared to oxen, although this was before selective breeding made them stronger, and before horse collars.</p>

<p><strong>Power-to-weight ratios</strong>: Turbofans have the highest watts per kg density of any machine. (How does my e-foil motor compare? Back of napkin calculation the 65161 has max output 6 kW and weight 3 kg.)</p>

<p><strong>Electricity is amazing</strong>: Smil writes a real ode to electricity. It's a marvel that powers all of modernity: lossless to deliver from station to home. Completely silent and non polluting at conversion point. Safe. Easy to convert to motion heat and light. The world saw extremely rapid electrification of urban and rural households. From start to finish, the S-curve took only 75 years. Energy transitions take decades, even if highly desirable.</p>

<p><strong>Lumens per watt</strong>: A metric for measuring light efficiency. Incandescent to CFL to LED. It's plummeted over the last two centuries.</p>

<p><strong>Cooking range transitions</strong>: early ranges were electric, then switched to gas and are now returning to electric induction stoves. Has this transition happened?</p>

<p><strong>So many air conditioners</strong>: Wild that us a conditioner penetration is 95% in the US. I double checked this, Google says 90%.</p>

<p><strong>Efficiency in transport</strong>: Not covered directly but I wondered how to compare various modes of transportation. The result is my note on <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Efficiency_of_transportation_modes">Efficiency of transportation modes</a>.</p>

<p><strong>Efficiency gains without drastic changes</strong>: We tend to underrate  and under report incremental improvements as key components of an invention. The first steam engine in the 18th century had a 1% efficiency. Watt's improvements doubled it to just 2%. But then subsequent unnamed inventions made efficiency rise to 8%.</p>

<p>Modern gasoline engines are substantially more efficient (usually 30-35% efficiency). Diesel is a bit better, around 45% efficient.</p>

<h1>Economic transitions</h1>

<p>There is no clear marker for completed economic transition. For demographics, the transition happens when the birth rate plummeted below replacement. For energy, a transition happened when a country fully switches from plant based fuels.</p>

<p><strong>Growth is slowing</strong>: Also, GDP over time curves appear as S curves with inflection points in the recent past for most developed countries. This means growth is slowing. However, it's unclear if this GDP stat can be trusted.</p>

<p>One economic transition model:</p>

<ol>
<li>Primary markets: focus on raw materials.</li>
<li>Secondary markets: focus on refining the materials, creating goods from them.</li>
<li>Tertiary markets: everything else that meets consumer demands. Includes services.</li>
</ol>

<p>Primitive societies are heavily skewed towards primary markets. As societies progress, they tend to shift to tertiary markets, focusing on services. Here's the graph for the US:</p>

<p>Another economic transition involves more people traveling further. This includes for work commutes as well as travel for leisure. Since 1800, people travel an order of magnitudes more for work than before.</p>

<p><strong>Electronics are surprisingly energy intensive</strong>: Total energy costs to manufacture all electronics (computers, phones etc) was 1 exajoule (EJ). Compared to all cars at 7EJ. This despite the fact that all cars manufactured weigh 100x as much. Why? Partly due to planned obsolescence and rapid improvement of electronics. (I really should strive to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Buy_it_for_life">Buy it for life</a> with these electronics devices as much as possible. Optimize for longevity. Including my current iPhone. It’s just wasteful otherwise.)</p>

<h1>Climate transitions</h1>

<p>Interesting foray into anthropogenic climate change from pre-modern humans:</p>

<ol>
<li>Impact of runaway fires from cooking accidents</li>
<li>Extinction of mega fauna due to migrating hunters (and climate changes)</li>
<li>Impact of early farming on soil PH and other indicators</li>
<li>Deforestation</li>
</ol>

<p><strong>Forest density on ice-free land</strong>: In terms of tree cover, the metric is mainly forests as measured by sufficient tree density on ice free land. So that means you can take a country and divide its total land by total ice-free land by the percentage of that ice-free land that has forest on it. By this metric most developed world countries have increasing tree cover. And furthermore as climate reduces the amount of ice covered land because of warming, this metric will increase further.</p>

<p>Anyway things are looking pretty dicey.</p>

<p>And we have to reduce CO2 impacts pronto:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>According to the latest available science, achieving the long-term temperature goal would require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2020 and subsequently be reduced to zero before the end of the century. To limit warming to 1.5°C, this reduction to zero must take place around 2050</p>
</blockquote>

<p>But Smil doesn't think this future is likely, because there's really no reason to imagine it would be so. We're still increasing the absolute amount of CO2 emissions. The relative ratio of fossil fuels is declining, but the absolute amount of energy generated is increasing. The population is still projected to keep growing to 9 B by 2050. And as countries in Asia and Africa become more prosperous (hopefully), the energy footprints will increase. Per capita, the middle class in America take 500 GJ per year, compared to per capita in the developing world at 20 GJ per year, an order of magnitude less.</p>

<p>(Kinda bored of the environment section, moving on)</p>

<h1>Conclusion</h1>

<p>Smil is highly critical of singularity believers like Ray Kurzweil. He’s also critical of “endless progress” narratives like those of Steven Pinker. And those that try to thread the needle between the two like Noah Yuval Harari (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Homo_Deus_by_Yuval_Noah_Harari">Homo Deus by Yuval Noah Harari</a>).</p>

<p>Instead Smil aligns himself in between techno optimists and systems thinkers with an understanding of natural limits like Meadows (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Thinking_in_Systems_by_Donella_Meadows">Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows</a>).</p>

<p>Rather than make predictions, Smil attempts to give a lower bound on the fastest possible time to make future transitions.</p>

<p>Projections of population are still like 9+ billion for 2050. These projections may be conservative but still likely to be wrong. Even though they are on S curves and not naive projections, S curves are hard to predict (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Forecasting_s-curves_is_hard">Forecasting s-curves is hard</a>). And also, this does not take into account any discontinuous events and black swans.</p>

<p>Random things to look into:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Pumping water up-hill as giant battery</strong>: Apparently the efficiency of storage of a large water reservoir that is artificially pumped up is extremely good, an only 25% loss from this, and stores energy extremely well. Far better than any chemical battery could.</li>
<li>Look for energy density comparison (in watts per kg) of batteries versus kerosene for air travel and diesel for large naval engines.</li>
<li>Apparently the energy footprint of wood vs plastic is heavily in favor of wood. What are the implications of that?</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Collective action problems</strong>: The global dysfunction in the back of global wisdom Homosapien sapiens is a major barrier to reducing climate impact. In general the collective action problem is basically unsolved as we can see in the 21st-century. Related to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Collective_action_problems_aka_social_dilemmas">Collective action problems aka social dilemmas</a>.</p>

<p>Smil ends with a #2x2:</p>

<pre><code>|            | Simplicity     | Complexity          |
| ---------- | -------------- | ------------------- |
| Minimalism |                | Smil's prescription |
| Maximalism | High modernism |                     |
</code></pre>

<p>Complexity:</p>

<ul>
<li>Favor a multitude of approaches rather than relying on a single perfect solution (eg. No magic geo engineering bullet)</li>
<li>No place for a priori ideological purity. No insistence on what is best. Pragmatism (eg. Open to nuclear)</li>
<li>A hyper-focus on electrification may be over doing it (ahem <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Rewiring_America_by_Saul_Griffith">Rewiring America by Saul Griffith</a>). Avoid killing hydrogen vehicles by overtly favoring EVs with excessive rebates and ownership targets.</li>
</ul>

<p>Minimalism:</p>

<ul>
<li>Systemic small changes can help a lot. Not all fruits need to be available year round. Not all cars need to be SUVs.</li>
</ul>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>March Links</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/march-links/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-03-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/notes/2022/march-links/</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-03-31.jpg" alt="Generated image of nuclear ice breaker as depicted by leonardo davinci in his sketchbook" /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/pacific-northwest-s-forest-gardens-were-deliberately-planted-indigenous-people">Pacific Northwest's ‘forest gardens' were deliberately planted by Indigenous people</a> <em>(Science)</em> — It took a long time for researchers to recognize these forest gardens as a human-created landscape at all. A hopeful peek at how "humans have the ability to not just allow biodiversity to flourish, but to be a part of it". Perhaps the dichotomy of hunter-gatherers vs. farmers is overstated?</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/02/biosphere-planetary-intelligence-evolution/622867/">Is Earth Smart</a> <em>(The Atlantic)</em> — Building on the notion of a biosphere (life), the noosphere (intelligent life) and technosphere (technological systems created by intelligent life) present major challenges to survival. Just like the immature biosphere did not really hit its stride until the Great Oxygenation Event, our immature technosphere is actively destructive until an equivalent transition, argue the authors.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/anti-anti-semitism">Anti-Anti-Semitism (2010)</a> <em>(Tablet Magazine)</em> — A bizarre foray into World Without Nazism, a Kremlin-flavored Anti-Defamation League for the post-Soviet realm. This is especially sinister given the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3ugaKoAuNs">denazification propaganda</a> used to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</li>
<li><a href="https://blog.emojipedia.org/vaccine-emoji-comes-to-life/">Vaccine Emoji Comes to Life</a> <em>(Emojipedia)</em> — In response to increased discourse about vaccinations and COVID, the blood-filled syringe emoji (💉) was updated to remove the blood to make it more universal. This raises a bunch of different questions: why is there only a white wine glass emoji, only a red one (🍷)? Famously, Apple changed its pistol emoji into a toy water gun (🔫) in 2016, causing widespread upset. When is it OK to repurpose existing emoji, and when is it not?</li>
<li><a href="https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/annual/shareholderletter2005.pdf">Amazon Shareholder's Letter (2005)</a> (<em>Jeff Bezos</em>) — Bezos explores the limits of math and data, conceding that many important decisions cannot be made in a math-based way, lamenting "math-based decisions command wide agreement, whereas judgment-based decisions are rightly debated and often controversial, at least until put into practice and demonstrated". Alas, Complexity!</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/zelensky-ukraine-president-jewish-hero/622945/">How Zelensky Gave the World a Jewish Hero</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — In addition to a quick recap of Zelenskyy's unlikely path from Russian comedian to Ukranian president, and an aside into the sorry state of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/28/most-poles-accept-jews-as-fellow-citizens-and-neighbors-but-a-minority-do-not/ft_18-03-26_polandholocaustlaws_map">Jewish intolerance in Europe</a>, I was heartened to learn that the Jewish community in Ukraine is recovering, for example the newly built <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menorah_center,_Dnipro">Menorah center in Dnipro</a> reportedly serving 40,000 people a day.</li>
<li><a href="https://detaly.co.il/evrejstvo-prezidenta-zelenskogo-kak-simvol/">Еврейство президента Зеленского как символ</a> (<em>Detali Israel</em>) — A look into the outsized impact of Ukraine on Jewry, including atrocities like Bogdan Khmelnytsky's attempt to eradicate Ukranian Jews, and the Holocaust massacre at Babyn Yar. At the same time, Ukraine has a long history of relative tolerance to Jews, and was the birthplace of many greats: politicians like David Ben-Gurion, Ze'ev Jabotinsky, writers like Isaac Babel, Sholom Alechem, Chaim Bialik. Many American greats descend directly from Ukranian Jews: Leonard Bernstein, Bob Dylan, Noam Chomsky, Steven Spielberg, Mel Brooks, Jon Stewart.</li>
</ul>


        
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    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>February Links</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/february-links/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-02-28T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/notes/2022/february-links/</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-02-28.jpg" alt="Generated image of Georg Cantor contemplating infinity" /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://aeon.co/essays/why-longtermism-is-the-worlds-most-dangerous-secular-credo">Against longtermism</a> (<em>Aeon</em>) — Torres argues that an over-focus on the long term is dangerous because it ignores shorter term existential threats, and encourages endless growth, which itself might be the cause of our problems. As a fan of long term thinking, I found this very provocative. What is the synthesis between pollyannaish beliefs in technology and degrowth?</li>
<li><a href="https://jaygraber.medium.com/web3-is-self-certifying-9dad77fd8d81">Web3 is Self-Certifying</a> (<em>Jay Graber</em>) — Graber describes the concept of self-certifying data, which "enables trust to reside in the data itself, not in where you found it, allowing apps to move away from client-server architectures." Examples of protocols that enable this include git, BitTorrent, IPFS, and SSB.</li>
<li><a href="https://thebaffler.com/salvos/whats-the-point-if-we-cant-have-fun">What’s the Point If We Can’t Have Fun?</a> (<em>David Graeber</em>) – In a rambling article, Graeber highlights Kropotkin's argument that species that cooperate most effectively tend to be the most competitive in the long run. Kropotkin argues that animal cooperation often has nothing to do with survival or reproduction, but is a form of pleasure in itself.</li>
<li><a href="https://longnow.org/essays/richard-feynman-connection-machine/">Feynman and The Connection Machine</a> (<em>Long Now</em>) — A sometimes touching vignette of Richard Feynman, as seen by Danny Hillis, who founded Thinking Machines to build the world's fastest parallel supercomputers in the 1980s. Nobody really knew how to build computers back then, so the problem was left to amateurs like Hillis and Feynman.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/02/future-internet-blockchain-investment-banking/621480/">The Internet Is Just Investment Banking Now</a> (<em>The Atlantic</em>) — Argues that Web3 is “the most honest turn of the internet epoch”: many things in our everyday life have become financialized, and while Web2 entrepreneurs have tried to hide that behind a facade of idealism, the new world of crypto at last makes the financialization explicit.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a81c934c-cb31-11e9-af46-b09e8bfe60c0">Why Cisco’s ‘spin-ins’ never caught on</a> (<em>Financial Times</em>) — In the 90's, Cisco pioneered the model of 'spin-ins': a group of employees would leave Cisco and form a new company with well defined short-term goals, which if achieved, required Cisco to acquire the venture and possibly breed resentment from less entrepreneurial peers. On the other hand, the downside for the entrepreneurs was also quite high, since they would end up with nothing if no acquisition took place.</li>
<li><a href="/notes/2022/february-links/#">Is Old Music Killing New Music?</a> (<em>Ted Gioia</em>) — Top 40 charts, Grammy Awards, and other incarnations of mainstream pop culture seem to be losing their cultural cache. Instead, songs most in demand are by musicians in their 70s and 80s, if not already dead.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/can-you-warm-yourself-with-your-mind">Can You Warm Yourself with Your Mind?</a> (<em>New Yorker</em>) — Studies in Nature show that advanced practitioners of g-tummo meditation can raise their core temperature by 1-2°C, or their extremities by around 10°C. This is done by contracting abdominal and pelvic muscles and visualizing a flame rising from below the navel to the top of the head.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306">Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)</a> (<em>Newsweek</em>) — A cantankerous skeptic dumps on the future of the web, producing a litany of predictions which are wrong to various degrees. Revisiting pundits from the past is a useful exercise that reminds us just how difficult the future is to predict.</li>
<li><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/a-moment-of-clarity">A Moment of Clarity</a> (<em>Noah Smith</em>) — In addition to astute observations on the eve of Russia's war on Ukraine, Smith describes a clear headedness on shared American values that surely must have been felt internally, even by adherents of "warmed-over Chomsky".</li>
</ul>


        
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    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>January Links</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2022/january-links/"/>
    
    <updated>2022-01-31T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/notes/2022/january-links/</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p><img src="/assets/generated/2022-01-31.jpg" alt="Generated image of a space shuttle in Leonardo Da Vinci's sketchbook" /></p>

<ul>
<li><a href="/notes/2022/january-links/">Buy Things, Not Experiences</a> (<em>Harold Lee</em>) – Common wisdom suggests that having a lot of stuff will not bring happiness, but advocates of this "new minimalism" often live in modern houses in expensive neighborhoods. In general, Lee argues that there is no real boundary between things and experiences, and in fact we may have erred too far and are now over-consuming experiences.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.michellelim.org/writing/speaking-in-tales/">Speaking in Tales: conversing in Chinese means constantly alluding to folklore</a> (<em>Michelle Lim</em>) — Lim describes chéng yǔ, commonly used 4-character phrases in Chinese, which are allusions to classical Chinese folk tales. This introduces unique challenges to translations, which lose their evocative impact when you don’t know the story.</li>
</ul>


        
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    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Practical Doomsday by Michal Zalewski</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/practical-doomsday-by-michal-zalewski"/>
    
    <updated>2022-01-28T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/practical-doomsday-by-michal-zalewski</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>Not sure how I got suckered into reading this. It must have appealed to some
deepseated prepper instincts in me. Provenance aside, this prepper book started
off strong, rejecting the typical prepper tropes of guns, generators, and glory.</p>

<p>Two useful things I got from this book:</p>

<ol>
<li>A nudge to try to scenario plan some possible near future disasters and have
a basic plan of action.</li>
<li>A reminder to check on some of the rudimentary gear I have in the house and
in the car (eg. water, basic food supplies).</li>
</ol>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>AI note garden: link suggestions</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-linker"/>
    
    <updated>2022-01-14T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-linker</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>My latest <a href="/ai-note-garden-summarizer">AI gardener apprentice</a> finds pairs of notes that aren't explicitly linked, but maybe ought to be. This project was inspired by the human subconscious, which creates, cements, and removes neural connections during sleep.</p>

<p>Like a sleeping brain, my python script runs nightly, scouring my note garden for related notes. The end result is a list of the most similar notes pairs in the garden, based on semantic similarity. I found the results to be illuminating, and a real-time version with solid UX would be a central feature of my <a href="/file-systems-for-thought">system for thought</a>.</p>

<!--more-->

<h1>Ideas and connections</h1>

<p>Ideas are naturally interlinked. They build on one another, like stepping stones
in the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Adjacent_Possible">Adjacent Possible</a>. Concepts build on one another forming a dependency tree, and
you can only learn something if you have first prepared a place to attach the new information. In other words, it must be in your <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Zone_of_Proximate_Development">Zone of Proximate Development</a>.
Fortune favours the prepared mind.</p>

<p>Our brains reflect this interlinked nature of ideas, with billions of neurons
and trillions of connections between them. This complicated machinery does its
best to create a representation of the world around us.</p>

<p>When we sleep, automatic processes in the brain tend to these connections,
creating new links, removing the obsolete ones, and paving the cowpaths.
<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Sleep_has_a_profound_effect_on_memory_and_learning">Sleep has a profound effect on memory and learning</a>.</p>

<h1>Networked notes</h1>

<p>An ideal collection of personal notes mirrors your own thoughts. Obsidian
emphasizes interlinking, and places a lot of weight on the note graph, a mind
map-like view of the whole note garden resembling a connectome. Connections are emphasized in Roam's marketing copy as a "note taking tool for <strong>networked</strong> thought".</p>

<p>While today's crop of note taking tools makes links and backlinks easier to manage than before,
it's still a pain to interlink notes. One major challenge is to recall what related notes you might
have written in the past.</p>

<p>What is the note garden equivalent of sleep, during which the brain's
subconscious processes triage new information gleaned during the day?
What might be useful automation for us note gardeners?</p>

<h1>Finding connections automatically</h1>

<p>I take a fair amount of notes and sometimes have a feeling of deja-vu when I
realize that I've been parroting something I already wrote
many moons ago. If like me, you have a large note garden, a stable set of
interests, and a crappy memory, you might know what I'm talking about.</p>

<p>The simplest remedy to this problem might be to scour the note garden, looking
for redundancies: ideas that appear in multiple places. You might prune the
redundant note, reword it, link it to something relevant, or refactor
multiple notes to make more sense together.</p>

<p>Of course, redundancies aren't all bad! Notes need enough context to stand on their own
and topics that are interconnected can't help but overlap somewhat.
The goal here is not terseness, but cohesion and legibility. If a note is
related to other notes, let's cement that relationship with an explicit link.</p>

<h2>Sidebar: semantic similarity</h2>

<p>Now, how might we determine if two notes are related? One could simply consider
two notes to be related if they have significant overlap in words. But we are
better than that. The NLP keyword for this problem is semantic similarity.</p>

<p>For words, the situation is relatively simple.
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Word2vec">word2vec</a> takes a word
and represents it as an array of numbers. Words that are semantically similar end up
closer together in the resulting vector space, and those that are semantically different end up far away.
The same can be done with sentences, using some of the same machinery that powers
large language models. We have the technology to take a whole sentence of variable length and create an
embedding for it. Once we have the ability to generate embeddings from sentences,
we can compare two sentences by evaluating how close or far their embeddings are.</p>

<p>We can do the same thing at a larger scale. Given N sentences,
we calculate an NxN matrix of similarity values which might look like this:</p>

<p><img src="/ai-note-garden-linker/similarity-matrix.png" alt="Similarity matrix between a 20 randomly selected note titles in my note garden" /></p>

<p>Quick sanity check:</p>

<ul>
<li>The diagonal answers the question "how similar is this sentence to itself" and has similarity 1 across the board</li>
<li>The matrix is symmetric (eg. A is as similar to B as B is to A).</li>
<li>In the above, notes named "Seattle culture" and "Seattle nearby child-friendly hikes" have high semantic similarity.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Semantic similarity in my note garden</h1>

<p>I wrote a python script to find related notes in my note garden. Here's how it
works:</p>

<ol>
<li>Load all notes and their content</li>
<li>Split each note into paragraphs</li>
<li>Calculate embeddings for all paragraphs using <a href="https://tfhub.dev/google/universal-sentence-encoder-large/5">Universal Sentence Encoder (USE)</a>,
keeping track of the source note.</li>
<li>Calculate the correlation matrix for all paragraphs using cosine similarity</li>
<li>Calculate a similarity score for each note pair using the above matrix</li>
<li>Sort note pairs by most similar, providing paragraph pairs as evidence</li>
</ol>

<p>Now we have a list of the most similar notes in the garden, their associated
similarity scores.</p>

<h2>Sidebar: ignoring existing links</h2>

<p>Notes that are already interlinked should not show up
in this list of similar notes. Their similarity is already legible to the system,
and there are really a lot of such notes. For instance, most of my Medieval
history notes are highly semantically similar, because they are derived from
similar books and cover very similar themes.</p>

<p>We can easily filter out these note pairs by considering the
graph structure of the note garden. An adjacency matrix gives O(1) lookup.
In practice, going on step further and ignoring note pairs that are a minimum
distance of 2 away has worked better on my note corpus. To help with this,
I hired the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd%E2%80%93Warshall_algorithm">Floyd–Warshall algorithm</a>
and its friendly <a href="https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.sparse.csgraph.floyd_warshall.html">scipy implementation</a>.
Once you have the matrix of minimum distances, filtering out the note pairs is easy.</p>

<h1>Living with the note garden linker</h1>

<p>I run the semantic similarity AI nightly. This generates an updated note called
<code>Similar notes.md</code> which lists the most similar notes in my note garden. The resulting note is a collection of entries that look like this:</p>

<pre><code>Similarity 0.61:

Note 1: Inventing on what principle c. 2019

&gt; Paragraph excerpt: How can you build software that doesn't need backends and SREs to run...

Note 2: Evogami without firebase

&gt; Paragraph excerpt: How might we create multiplayer apps with state, without relying on a backend at all...
</code></pre>

<p>There is some mathematical beauty to a script which takes a collection of notes
as input, and outputs another note. Having notes update overnight without my
intervention makes the note garden feel like it's alive and growing.
That said, having an AI make arbitrary modifications to my hand written notes
sounds like a real nightmare. To mitigate this, I have by convention decided to
keep all AI-produced notes in the <code>Nightly/</code> directory.</p>

<p>My note linker has been up and running for the last month, so I have a sense
for how useful the resulting output is. One observation is that my note
garden grows slowly, and most notes are relatively static. The first time I ran
the similarity script, I found a lot of surprising and actionable output, but
unless I have an especially prolific note taking session,
running over the whole corpus nightly is probably overkill. More on this later.</p>

<p>Going through a fruitful generated list of similar notes, I tend to
take one of the following actions:</p>

<ul>
<li>One of the notes supercedes the other ➡️ merge any useful bits from the deprecated note and remove it</li>
<li>Both notes point to the same concept ➡️ refactor the concept into a separate note and link to it from both</li>
<li>Both notes are highly related but not explicitly linked ➡️ create a link from one note to the other</li>
</ul>

<p>Any of these actions will cause the entry to disappear from <code>Similar notes</code> on
a subsequent run. A virtuous cycle.</p>

<h2>Repetition in my book reviews</h2>

<p>I found some surprising redundancies in my book reviews. In 2017, I overused the
word "vivid" (similarity 0.71):</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><strong>Gatsby</strong>: Incredibly vividly written. Fascinating to see the self made struggles
  of people that are so fantastically well off. Very unsympathetic characters
  throughout, except for the narrator.</p>
  
  <p><strong>Nothing is True and Everything is Possible</strong>: Super well written, incredibly
  engaging throughout. Incredibly so for non-fiction about a depressing topic.
  Much more entertaining than Gessen’s barrage of pessimism.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>I struggled with provenance in 2018 (similarity 0.63):</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><strong>Bird by Bird</strong>: I've forgotten how this book appeared on my radar, but I
  think it was on someone's list of most influential books ever. I am more
  ambivalent.</p>
  
  <p><strong>The Fourth Turning</strong>: I don’t remember why I decided to read this book. The
  political theory it describes is loved by both Gore and Bannon. This
  surprisingly heterogeneous recommendation reignited my interest when I saw it
  on my reading list.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>In 2019, I did not mince words (similarity 0.64):</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><strong>Building a Bridge to the 18th century</strong>: I found the book mostly useless.
  It's a shallow summary of some stuff I already knew, and set forth an
  exaggerated technological pessimism that I, to some extent, share.</p>
  
  <p><strong>You Belong To The Universe</strong>: The book itself is interesting but not
  groundbreaking. It involves overly flowery descriptions of things that I
  consider obvious: Google, Nest, Sim City, self driving cars, etc.</p>
</blockquote>

<h2>How to handle quotes?</h2>

<p>I have a special note where I track quotes that I really enjoyed from all over the place.
Since I like them, these quotes end up in other notes too. Since the quotes are inserted
verbatim, their presence is a very strong signal for note similarity.</p>

<p>My current solution is to ignore my <code>Quotes I like.md</code> note for this analysis,
but this is a hack, since there are still many instances of the same quote across
different notes used perhaps in different contexts. A shared quote is very weak evidence
that the two notes are related, often insufficient to warrant a direct link.</p>

<p>One approach I haven't yet tried might be to discard identical matches as meaningless.
This would naturally discard quotes, since they are generally inserted verbatim.</p>

<h1>Future works</h1>

<p>The USE semantic similarity model I currently use is somewhat limited. It doesn't
perform well on non-latin character sets. According to it, anything with cyrillic
characters is extremely semantically similar. Relatedly, it doesn't perform well
on non-words. Snippets of code, guitar tabs, and ASCII art all look same.
Lastly, USE is already 4+ years old. AI/NLP is progressing so quickly, I
should be using a more modern model to generate embeddings. I recently got access to OpenAI's beta
embedding feature, which might be a logical next step. But running OpenAI embeddings on
tens of thousands of paragraphs sounds like an expensive proposition. I'd like
to continue to be able to run semantic similarity in the comfort of my own computer.</p>

<p>Let me be the first to admit that what I have hacked together is a crude
prototype, and a very rough approximation of the ultimate user experience
I want my note taking app to provide. I want to be able to request suggestions
for relevant notes to reference as I write, in a way that is not distracting.</p>

<p>If I had time, I'd build an Obsidian plugin version of what I've built as a
shell script:</p>

<ol>
<li>Keep a cache of embeddings for notes in the note garden</li>
<li>As you write, periodically calculate this note's embeddings and compare them to the rest of the corpus</li>
<li>Surface relevant but as yet unlinked notes and their similarity scores in a sidebar</li>
</ol>

<p>Wanna build it together? I promise to cheer you on from the sidelines! Drop me a line.</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>A Psalm for the Wild-Built by Becky Chambers</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/a-psalm-for-the-wild-built-by-becky-chambers"/>
    
    <updated>2022-01-12T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/a-psalm-for-the-wild-built-by-becky-chambers</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>January 2022</p>

<h1>Strong world building</h1>

<ul>
<li>Reliable phone-computers designed to last a lifetime</li>
<li>Slow reveal of what the world is like, and what "Post-Transition" means</li>
<li>Vivid descriptions of ruins of modernity ("Factory Age")</li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>Factory Age ruins looked the same. Hulking towers of boxes, bolts, and tubes. Brutal. Utilitarian. Visually at odds with the thriving flora now laying claim to the rusted corpse.</p>
</blockquote>

<ul>
<li>"Tea Monks", basically traveling tea merchant-shrinks. Great concept!</li>
<li>Original pantheon of gods, quite mysterious. Well written slow reveal towards the end segment about the Hermitage.</li>
<li>Loved the robots that have a finite lifespan, but create new robots out of spare parts ("wild-built")</li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>I guess you’d say family tree is comprised of many wild-built individuals, descended in total from”—the robot counted on its fingertips—“sixteen factory originals.”</p>
</blockquote>

<ul>
<li>Loved the robot names, and how they are perhaps more closely integrated into nature than humans.</li>
<li>Excellent low tech robot message boards.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Writing and style</h1>

<ul>
<li>Some cringe-worthy writing that reads a bit like fan fiction.</li>
<li>Some overly florid sentences, for example:</li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>Sun cascaded through the hole cut in the canopy, creating a bountiful column of light that played pleasingly with the butter-colored paving inlaid with vibrant stones.</p>
</blockquote>

<ul>
<li>Prolific use of "they" pronouns which I found awkward. Maybe a matter of habit? It was the first book in which this really stood out to me:</li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>Ms. Jules was the first to arrive, as always. Dex smiled to themself as she approached</p>
</blockquote>

<ul>
<li>Character development a bit weak. Dex seems like an angsty teenager without much depth. Is this young adult writing? I think no, given the prolific cursing towards the end.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Strong ecosystem musings</h1>

<ul>
<li>I'm a bit obsessed by this idea that <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Subsystems_that_integrate_conflict_can_lead_to_resilient_systems">Subsystems that integrate conflict can lead to resilient systems</a>, and this fragment resonated with me:</li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>It must have been such a relief to be free of predators and eat whatever the hell you wanted. But that was the exact opposite of what the ecosystem needed. The ecosystem required the elk to be afraid in order to stay in balance. But elk don’t want to be afraid. Fear is miserable, as is pain. As is hunger. Every animal is hardwired to do absolutely anything to stop those feelings as fast as possible. We’re all just trying to be comfortable, and well fed, and unafraid. It wasn’t the elk’s fault. The elk just wanted to relax.” Dex nodded at the ruined factory. “And the people who made places like this weren’t at fault either—at least, not at first. They just wanted to be comfortable. They wanted their children to live past the age of five. They wanted everything to stop being so fucking hard. Any animal would do the same—and they do, if given the chance.” “Just like the elk.”</p>
</blockquote>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Article highlights of 2021</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/notes/2021/article-highlights-of-2021/"/>
    
    <updated>2021-12-21T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/notes/2021/article-highlights-of-2021/</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>Following my yearly tradition (<a href="/notes/2020/article-highlights-of-2020/">2020</a>,
<a href="/notes/2019/article-highlights-of-2019/">2019</a>, and
<a href="/notes/2021/article-highlights-of-2021/notes/2019/reading-in-2018/">2018</a>), here were my favorite articles from 2021.
It's hard to come up with coherent groupings, but overall I definitely read more
about emergence, evolution, equilibrium and complexity-related stuff. I tried to
make sense of Russia, China and where the US sits in the new world order.
Notably, I read a lot of <a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com">Construction
Physics</a>, as if preparing for an
ambitious but unspecified building project.</p>

<p>I may have overindexed on articles and non-fiction books this year, at the
expense of reading novels. This is at odds with my stated belief in the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Power_of_Fiction">Power of Fiction</a>. Looking back at my <a href="/books">book list</a>, I only read two fiction
books the whole year — possibly an all-time low. My aim for 2022 is to double
down on reading for pleasure, relieving pressure to capture every insight.</p>

<p>Happy New Year!</p>

<!--more-->

<h1>Lenses and mental models</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.edge.org/response-detail/11783">Important Concept: Kayfabe</a> (Edge) - Eric Weinstein describes Kayfabe, a term from professional wrestling about a situation where there appears to be a real contest but the outcomes are predetermined. Unsportsmanlike conduct happens from the appearance of actual competition (called "shooting", as opposed to scripted deception, which is called "working"). This phenomenon organically emerged, because real wrestling is pretty monotonous for the audience, and for the participants, features occasional but extreme peril. Weinstein speculates that Kayfabe occurs in other domains too.</li>
<li><a href="https://vitalik.ca/general/2020/11/08/concave.html">Convex and Concave Dispositions</a> (Vitalik Buterin) - Vitalik explores situations where the polarity model (two desirable attributes in conflict with one another) are resolved better by picking one of the poles than trying to find something in-between. His main example is lockdowns: a 100% effective travel ban is far more useful than a half-hearted lockdown. Given the choice of war with country A and war with country B, a little bit of A and B is not generally a great choice. Interesting lens nonetheless.</li>
<li><a href="https://medium.com/@samo.burja/live-versus-dead-players-2b24f6e9eae2">Live versus Dead Players</a> (Samo Burja) - In Samo's definition, Live Players are able to do new things. Dead players are repeating stereotyped behaviors, often cargo-culting what Live Players have pioneered.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/our-brain-typically-overlooks-this-brilliant-problem-solving-strategy/">Our Brain Typically Overlooks This Brilliant Problem-Solving Strategy</a> (Scientific American) - People often limit their creativity by continually adding new features to a design rather than removing existing ones.</li>
<li><a href="https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/">A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity</a> (Tyler Pearson) - An accessible explanation of ergodicity using startups and Russian Roulette as analogy. In an ensemble probability, the ruin of one individual does not affect the others (eg. you are a VC, "some of your startups may fail", but one of them IPOs, so you still make out like a bandit). In a time probability, the ruin at one point in time affects all future points in time (eg. you are a founder, and years of effort are completely wasted).</li>
<li><a href="https://simonsarris.com/play/">Deliberate Practice for Knowledge Work</a> (Simon Sarris) - Simon answers Andy's question provocatively: "Deliberate practice of knowledge work requires testing knowledge, and that is achieved by doing. Note taking is not the under-studied force of knowledge, play is."</li>
<li><a href="https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creativity-in-management-by-john-cleese">Creativity in Management</a> (John Cleese) - Cleese gave a great speech to Video Arts in 1991. Humor is a natural concomitant in the open mode, but it’s a luxury in the closed. I add Cleese to the stable of believers in open, divergent, wandering, exploratory, beer drinking hill finders.</li>
<li><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/03/the-fallacy-of-mood-affiliation.html">The fallacy of mood affiliation</a> (Marginal Revolution) - A form of motivated reasoning where you first choose a mood or attitude, then find confirming evidence that matches the mood.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.edge.org/response-detail/27080">Concept: Bisociation</a> (Edge) - Arthur Koestler, who has transformed into a kind of totem for me over the last few years, coined this word bisociation, which integrates two (or more) apparently incompatible frames of thought. In humor, the canonical example is a pun. For Koestler, the ability to simultaneously view a situation through multiple frames of reference is the source of all creative breakthroughs.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.systemsinnovation.io/post/edge-of-chaos-1">Edge of Chaos</a> (Systems Innovation) - Right between the two extremes, order and chaos, at a kind of abstract phase transition called the edge of chaos, you also find complexity: a class of behaviors in which the components of the system never quite lock into place, yet never dissolve into turbulence.</li>
<li><a href="https://sandwalk.blogspot.com/2008/02/evolution-as-tinkering.html">Evolution as Tinkering</a> (Larry Moran) — Argues that natural selection has no analogy with any aspect of human behavior, but the closest thing might be tinkering. Often without even knowing what she’s going to create, the tinkerer uses whatever she can find to make a workable object.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.lewissociety.org/innerring/">The Inner Ring</a> (C. S. Lewis) - Every organization has a legible hierarchy. A general is superior to a colonel, and a colonel to a captain. But the way things really work is via a series of concentric rings, a shadow organization that is illegible to the uninitiated. To a young person, just entering on adult life, the world seems full of “insides,” full of delightful intimacies and confidentialities, and he desires to enter them. But if he follows that desire he will reach no “inside” that is worth reaching. The true road lies in quite another direction: mastering a craft.</li>
<li><a href="https://apenwarr.ca/log/20211201">100 years of whatever this will be</a> (apenwarr) - Decentralized, distributed systems aren't a panacea, and often need to be regulated. Furthermore, if no regulation is present, some other shadow hierarchy will emerge, and it may not be one that we like.</li>
<li><a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families">Secrets Of The Great Families</a> (Scott Alexander) - A fun overview of a few impressive families and their multitalented members. I learned about the Tagores and their amazing names, all of which end with "dranath". Seriously though, how do great families remain great without reversion to the mean? Three ways, at least: 1. having a lot of children, and 2. marrying people from other great families, 3. children of great people feel pressure to do something great.</li>
</ul>

<h1>American Culture Wars</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/global-leader-obsolete-technology">A Global Leader in Obsolete Technology</a> (Cato Institute) - Punchy article mocks high-speed rail for being functionally obsolete technology. Slower than flying, less convenient than driving, and more expensive than either one. Most of the argument against has to do with cost, and even China's rail efforts have put it into great debt. The author suggests building more highway instead. It's a pretty weak argument, but could be buttressed if self-driving cars and trucks become a norm. I highlight this because I'm a rail fan and think this was a valuable perspective.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opinion/california-san-francisco-schools.html">California Is Making Liberals Squirm</a> (NYTimes) - Ezra Klein criticizes progressives for being symbolically liberal, but operationally conservative. Signs professing love for Immigrants and how much BLM are placed in communities that organize against efforts that would bring those values closer to reality.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/how-big-tech-impeached-donald-trump/617643/">The Meaning of Trump’s Mass Cancellation</a> (The Atlantic) - A critique of swashbuckling CEOs pretending to do a great deed by banning Trump from their platforms. In fact they punished a lame-duck president at the nadir of his power.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-19/woke-movement-is-global-and-america-should-be-mostly-proud">Why Wokeism Will Rule the World</a> (Bloomberg) - Tyler Cowen of all people calls for a bit more nuance when criticizing wokeness. Indeed, we are a little bit too woke here in the US private sector. It's also unclear whether wokeness will ultimately help Black Americans. But globally, it's pretty clear that more wokeness might not be such a bad thing. It would be nice if Afghans let women work again, and if Saudi Arabia would stop executing gay people.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/8392.html">Liberalism and class</a> (Interfluidity) - The obligation to be tolerant in a liberal society has shifted from “try not to be a dick” to understanding the sensitivities of diverse communities and taking care to respect them. But this has the paradoxical effect of further isolating the "professional" class from the bulk of the public, for whom the burden of staying current with everchanging mores is simply too much. The requirement of diplomacy has become a kind of regressive tax. The same high standards are expected of everyone, but only a certain class of people can easily afford to meet them.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/opinion/supply-side-progressivism.html">The Economic Mistake the Left Is Finally Confronting</a> (New York Times)† — Ezra Klein argues that the world we should build toward requires more than redistribution: it requires progress, inventions, and advances that will boost productivity and ultimately grow the supply of goods and services.</li>
<li><a href="https://daily.jstor.org/how-america-tried-and-failed-to-solve-its-servant-problem/">How America Tried (and Failed) to Solve Its "Servant Problem"</a> (JSTOR Daily) - In the early part of the twentieth century, most middle-class American homes had at least one servant. The “servant problem” boiled down to the fact that wealthier women wanted reliable, cheap, willing labor, but poorer women (many of them black) did not want to be their servants. Somewhat unsatisfying since the article presents no real explanation, but an interesting snapshot of a long forgotten era.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/12/magazine/strategic-extremism.html">Strategic Extremism, published 2004</a> (New York Times) - In the mid-20th century, a majority Americans that voted were moderates, their views shaped by the Big Three TV networks. But over time the Big Three's hold grew weaker, and the shifting media landscape made it easier to appeal to smaller and smaller groups of people. Televangelists began to appeal to Evangelicals. Fox News appealed to the right. Direct mail allowed politicians to narrowcast to more specific demographics. Modern social media lets you do this easily, and at scale, and we have seen the results.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Russia</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/11/russian-elections-once-again-had-a-suspiciously-neat-result">Russian elections once again had a suspiciously neat result</a> (The Economist) - unusually high number of turnout and vote-share results were multiples of five in this most recent Russian election (eg, 50%, 55%, 60%), a tell-tale sign of manipulation. Two thoughts: first, hire some smarter election frausters next time. Second, I was tickled by this since it's so directly related to <a href="https://smus.com/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/">age heaping</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.jewishbookcouncil.org/pb-daily/papa-stalin-and-the-happy-family">Papa Stalin and the Happy Family</a> (Jewish Book Council) - Underscores the role of propaganda in Soviet Jewish children's literature, which tended to sketch portraits of children with absent or incompetent parents, mostly focusing on Kvitko.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/soviet-childrens-books-in-india">How Soviet Children's Books Became Collectors' Items in India</a> (Atlas Obscura) - A look into the obscure world of Soviet children's literature like Денискины рассказы translated into Marathi, as part of an Comintern play of the early Soviets. But there was feedback too, eg. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rinI7d3mSyA">Бродяга (1951)</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2021/july/information-sovereignty">Information Sovereignty</a> (London Review of Books) - A system based on cynicism and paranoia means people end up distrusting everything. The Kremlin has, by most accounts, produced a decent vaccine for the coronavirus. But the government can’t persuade the Russian people that they need to take it. Only 13 per cent are vaccinated, despite Putin’s claim that the Sputnik V is ‘just as reliable as Kalashnikov assault rifles’</li>
</ul>

<h1>China</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/opinion/why-chinas-political-model-is-superior.html">Why China’s Political Model Is Superior</a> (New York Times) - Written in 2012, I found this to be a surprising article for the gray lady to publish.</li>
<li><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-china-smashing-its-tech-industry">Why is China smashing its tech industry?</a> (Noah Smith)† - Smith argues that, after the Cold War, the West’s priorities shifted from survival to enjoyment, but China has doubled down on survival, moving toward the view that “hard tech is more valuable than products that take us more deeply into the digital world.” That, in turn, explains the crackdown on sectors that don’t help China stockpile national power.</li>
<li><a href="https://lillianli.substack.com/p/the-short-notes-the-mechanism-of">The Mechanism of the Five-Year Plan</a> (Chinese Characteristics)† — Tech analyst Lillian Li explains how the Chinese government’s famous Five-Year Plans work, drawing a parallel to big tech companies’ “OKR” processes.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1007589/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sixthtone.com%2Fnews%2F1007589%2Ftired-of-running-in-place%252C-young-chinese-lie-down">Tired of Running in Place, Young Chinese ‘Lie Down’</a> (Sixth Tone) - Some young Chinese are resolving to just scrape by, exerting the bare minimum effort at an unfulfilling job, as opposed to the futility of raging against the capitalist machine. When you can’t catch up with society’s development — say, skyrocketing home prices — tang ping (lying Down) is actually the most rational choice,” he said.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Religion, broadly construed</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-limiting-latin-mass-may-become-the-defining-moment-for-pope-francis-164826">How limiting Latin Mass may become the defining moment for Pope Francis</a> (The Conversation) - Vatican II (1965) decreed that the mass be translated into the local vernacular. Hardcore Catholics really wanted their mass conducted in Latin, some were excommunicated over it. In 2007, Pope Benedict XVI expanded the use of the traditional Latin Mass. Then in 2021, Pope Francis reverted back to the Vatican II rules, banning the Latin Mass once more. See also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/pope-francis-latin-mass.html">this enraged response from a Rad Trad</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://aeon.co/ideas/we-need-highly-formal-rituals-in-order-to-make-life-more-democratic">We need highly formal rituals in order to make life more democratic</a> (Aeon) - A somewhat naive take on the need for collective rituals, and an implementation of this as a pseudo religion in College residence. Borders on cosplay, but I do agree in spirit: "I hope we all come out of quarantine wearing our Sunday best, ringing bells, lighting candles and burning incense."</li>
<li><a href="https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/girard-series-part-1-the-death-of-the-festival/">The Death of the Festival</a> (Charles Eisenstein) - My encounter with some of the ideas of Rene Girard. "Without respite from the conventions of the social order and without respite from our roles within it, we go crazy as well ... A real festival is essentially a repeated, ritualized riot that has evolved its own pattern language."</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/arts/music/bach-religion-music.html">Johann Sebastian Bach Was More Religious Than You Might Think</a> (NYTimes) - I already thought Bach was pretty religious, but this article makes his religiosity more specific and extreme, and grounded in his own annotations of the Calov bible, a biblical tome compiled by Abraham Clov with Martin Luther's sermons and writings. The article paints Bach at odds with progressivist currents even of his own day. Bach favored biblical revelation over human reason, disparaged notions of human autonomy, held non-Luteran faiths in contempt, exalted German goodness, and the divine right of kings.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/03/opinion/last-jew-afghanistan-zebulon-simentov.html">What Happens When the Last Jew Leaves Afghanistan</a> (NYTimes) - It costs little to wax nostalgic about departed Jews when one lives in a place where diversity, rather than being a living human challenge, is a fairy tale from the past.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01811-w">Hundreds of Israel’s Archaeological Sites Are Vanishing Under Concrete</a> (Nature)† — Explores the tension between “salvage digs,” done to document archaeological remains in danger of destruction due to Israel’s extensive development projects, and the commercial sources of archaeological funding in Israel.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Geopolitics and War</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/state-collapse-and-nation-building-in-afghanistan/">State Collapse and Nation Building in Afghanistan</a> (Peter Turchin) — The now ex-president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, started his career as an academic and wrote a book called Fixing Failed States. Turchin reviews the book and argues that deliberate state-building is hard, but perhaps accidental state-building has been happening in the background in Afghanistan.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/terrorism-governance-religion/556817/">When Terrorists and Criminals Govern Better Than Governments</a> (The Atlantic)† — Argues that hierarchies imposed from outside are not part of the local feedback system and thus may be ineffective: “if people can’t get the leadership they crave from the state, they’ll find somebody else to do the job.”</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/24/mismatch-of-mindsets-why-the-taliban-won-in-afghanistan">Mismatch of Mindsets: Why the Taliban Won in Afghanistan</a> (The Guardian)† — An anthropologist argues that many recent military blunders can be attributed to Westerners’ confusion around their own values and the values of others, and an assumption that all parties are willing to negotiate and compromise more than they really are, especially when it comes to group belonging and sacred values.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Long-term thinking</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://longnow.org/ideas/02021/10/22/dune-foundation-and-the-allure-of-science-fiction-that-thinks-long-term/">“Dune,” “Foundation,” and the Allure of Science Fiction that Thinks Long-Term</a> (Long Now) - Asimov and Herbert took diametrically opposed stances — the trust-the-plan humanistic optimism of Foundation in one corner, the esoteric pessimism of Dune in the other. The author speculates that Dune fits the current "moment of broader cultural gloominess" better than Foundation does.</li>
<li><a href="https://applieddivinitystudies.com/stagnation/index.html">Isolated Demands for Rigour in New Optimism</a> (Applied Divinity Studies) - A battery of optimism is upon us. You should be ashamed of yourself, says the author. "The recent trend of rhetoric against stagnation is not founded in evidence or driven by data. It is pure mood affiliation."</li>
<li><a href="https://medium.com/the-long-now-foundation/scenario-planning-for-the-long-term-c68a75df169b">Scenario Planning for the Long-term</a> (Long Now) - Scenario planning is not about prediction; it’s about making better decisions. That is, if you really do your homework well in multiple scenarios, you’re probably going to see this future.</li>
<li><a href="https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard/">Forecasting s-curves is hard</a> (Constance Crozier) - Many social and biological systems follow the S-curve. What first looks like exponential growth, slows and increases linearly, and finally levels off (therefore end up looking like a wonky s). Constance shows how difficult it is to mathematically extrapolate S-curves in <a href="https://vimeo.com/408599958">a compelling video</a>.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Construction techniques</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://austinvernon.eth.link/blog/construction.html">So, You Want to Build a House More Efficiently</a> (Austin Vernon) - There's a naive high modern take that is tempting to apply to house construction: "Let's build buildings like cars". Unfortunately this doesn't work: materials are too heavy and no cost dominates the cost of new home construction.</li>
<li><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/mass-effects">Mass Effects</a> (Construction Physics) - Advancing construction technology over the last 200 years has seen the weight and volume of construction materials plummet. The Eiffel Tower is twice as tall as the Pyramid of Giza, but uses 1/300 of the volume. Less material means easier transportation, simpler assembly, smaller foundation. But thick and heavy building elements confer advantages like being less prone to vibration, more thermal and sound proofing, and feeling nicer.</li>
<li><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/balloon-framing-is-worse-is-better">Balloon Framing is Worse is Better</a> (Construction Physics) - Impressed by Austin Vernon's post, I decided to follow up and read the source. This article digs into pre-fabrication and transport vs. on-site construction, and explains why the balloon frame has persisted for as long as it has.</li>
<li><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/where-are-the-robotic-bricklayers">Where Are The Robotic Bricklayers?</a> (Construction Physics) - Masonry seemed like the perfect candidate for mechanization, but a hundred years of limited success suggests there’s some aspect to it that prevents a machine from easily doing it. At least a couple of reasons: 1. Mortar has sort of complex physical properties, eg. viscosity increases when it’s moved or shaken, 2. Heavy bricks require larger, more expensive machinery, and 3. In the US, masonry walls are constructed with a large amount of reinforcement.</li>
<li><a href="https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/logistics-production-volume-and-industrialized">Logistics, Production Volume, and Industrialized Building</a> (Construction Physics) Why have prefab homes not completely replaced bespoke, on-site construction? Economies of scale naturally push us towards this end of the spectrum. The answer lies in product value density. Buildings have low product-value density, and the logistics costs for transporting a fully assembled building are enormous. Even if transport was easy, there are still be significant site costs. Permitting, grading, setting foundations, etc. can be up to 20% of overall construction costs, and aren't easily addressed by any sort of mass-production method.</li>
<li><a href="https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-diy-family">The DIY Family</a> (Institute for Family Studies) - Like a modern lower end version of a Gilded Age baron, many Americans are now catered to by an army of part-time servants (grocery &amp; restaurant delivery, nannies, uber drivers, house cleaning). This article points to a pandemic spurred reversal. Closing childcare centers meant more parents choosing to stay at home and watch the kids. More people were doing DIY projects than calling the handyman. More people cooking for themselves. Will this trend persist over the long term? I don't think so.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210810-the-ancient-persian-way-to-keep-cool">The ancient Persian way to keep cool</a> (BBC) - Wind catchers were ancient Persian buildings designed with natural cooling systems. They were tall so they could catch wind, funnel it down to the dwelling below, while depositing any sand or debris at the foot of the tower. Yazd, UNESCO world heritage site is home to many.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Economics</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcRt3xAF4ynojfj6G/what-do-gdp-growth-curves-really-mean">What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?</a> (Less Wrong) - Even granting that GDP doesn’t measure happiness, or leisure time, or household work, GDP calculations are misleading because they ignore the effects of technological revolutions. GDP is calculated at recent prices, dominated by the things which are expensive today (eg. real estate). Things which are cheap today are ignored in hindsight. So goods whose prices drop dramatically because of some technological revolution are downweighted to near-zero.</li>
<li><a href="https://tunnelingonline.com/why-tunnels-in-the-us-cost-much-more-than-anywhere-else-in-the-world">Why Tunnels in The US Cost Much More Than Anywhere Else in The World</a> (Tunnel Business Magazine) - It costs $2.5B/mi in New York, $900M/mi in other parts of the US and Australia, $500M/mi in Europe and the Middle East, and $200M/mi in India &amp; China to build tunnels. Many complex cost drivers, including labor costs, labor laws, regulations, bureaucracy.</li>
<li><a href="https://patrickwyman.substack.com/p/american-gentry">American Gentry</a> (Patrick Wyman) - Patrick points at a certain kind of usually invisible wealthy family, whose wealth is not flashy, but stays in the family for generations. The sort of family that owns seventeen McDonald’s franchises in eastern Tennessee, or owners of the third-biggest construction company in Bakersfield.</li>
<li><a href="https://commoncog.com/blog/cash-flow-games/">The Games People Play With Cash Flow</a> (Common Cog) - Deep dive into trade-offs of raising capital early. Succinctly answers why so many profitable SaaS companies still want to take on venture funding. "in many businesses, you must spend money now to make money later. This implies that you’ll need a source of capital at the start of many business ventures".</li>
<li><a href="https://evonomics.com/why-behavioral-economics-is-itself-biased/">Why Behavioral Economics is Itself Biased</a> (Evonomics) - Turns out that the study showing that there is no "Hot Hand" in basketball was biased, and in fact the phenomenon is real. The winds of change are blowing, and behavioral economics is not immune to its own critiques.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/the-autopilot-economy/618497/">Could Index Funds Be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?</a> (The Atlantic) - Some $11 trillion is now invested in index funds, up from $2 trillion a decade ago. And as of 2019, more money is invested in passive funds than in active funds in the United States. Index funds increase inertia, and they get too dominant, capital will get allocated only to the big companies and not necessarily to good, promising, or efficient companies. Also, index fund managers like Vanguard get outsized control of votes in companies in the index. Perhaps we could all use a little more of that manic stock-picking energy, not less.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.profgalloway.com/the-martian/">The Martian</a> (No Mercy/No Malice) - A look at Elon Musk's financial machinations and outsized influence on markets.</li>
<li><a href="https://theprepared.com/blog/why-ykk-zippers-are-the-brown-mms-of-product-design-look-at-the-little-details-to-judge-overall-gear-quality/">Why YKK zippers are the brown M&amp;Ms of product design</a> (The Prepared) - A surprising look at YKK, a Japanese manufacturer of high quality zippers. The authors suggest using this and other signs to look for quality in products.</li>
<li><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/2020/09/24/wtf-happened-in-1971">WTF happened in 1971</a> (Coin Telegraph) - Still very confused on this one. But alarmingly,  hours to buy a single unit of the S&amp;P 500 has increased to an all time high of 126 hours today, up from an average of 30.9 hours since 1860.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Tech: AI to XR</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.folklore.org/StoryView.py?project=Macintosh&amp;story=The_Macintosh_Spirit.txt">The Macintosh Spirit</a> (Folklore) - One of many great anecdotes about early Apple culture which shaped the Macintosh. The original team was driven more by artistic values, oblivious to competition, where the goal was to be transcendently brilliant and insanely great. And there was a Pirate mentality: "it's better to be a pirate than join the navy".</li>
<li><a href="https://sandimetz.com/blog/2016/1/20/the-wrong-abstraction">The Wrong Abstraction</a> (Sandi Metz) - Abstraction is an important part of computer programming. It helps reduce duplication, and reason about things as systems interacting with one another. But we often over do it, anticipating a complicated future that never comes, or end up with the wrong abstraction. If you find yourself in a situation like this, go backward! It's better to unroll the abstraction, duplicate code, and find new, more meaningful abstractions.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.swyx.io/part-time-creator-manifesto/">The Part Time Creator Manifesto</a> (Shawn Wang) - Not the greatest article, but a nice existence proof that some people are able to combine a full-time job with profitable part-time work, and live to tell the tale.</li>
<li><a href="https://cdixon.org/2009/12/30/whats-strategic-for-google">What's strategic for Google?</a> (Craig Dixon) - Hardboiled look at Google strategy circa 2009.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html">The Bitter Lesson</a> (Rich Sutton) - Rich names a trend that has been happening in ML research for a long time now. Throwing large amounts of compute at pretty generic neural networks yields better results than hand-crafted, specialized non-neural model architectures.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/27/22403741/deepfake-geography-satellite-imagery-ai-generated-fakes-threat">Deepfake satellite imagery poses a not-so-distant threat, warn geographers</a> (The Verge) - Far from presenting deepfakes cartography as a novel challenge, "humans have been lying with maps for pretty much as long as maps have existed, they say, from mythological geographies devised by ancient civilizations like the Babylonians, to modern propaganda maps distributed during wartime". No mention of Potemkin villages, but same genre.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/10/facebook-metaverse-was-always-terrible/620546/">Hey, Facebook, I Made a Metaverse 27 Years Ago</a> (The Atlantic) Zuck isn't building the metaverse because he has a remarkable new vision of how things could be. The futures it imagines have been imagined a thousand times before, and usually better.</li>
<li><a href="https://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/dlc/bitstream/handle/10535/5962/Silence%2520is%2520a%2520Commons.html?isAllowed=y&amp;sequence=1">Ivan Illich: Silence is a Commons</a> (indiana.edu) - Ivan Illich is doing to computers what he did to education (De-Schooling Society, 1971), to energy (Energy and Equity, 1974), to medicine (Medical Nemesis, 1975), etc.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/design-for-the-future-but-balance-it-with-your-users-present">The MAYA Principle: Design for the Future, but Balance it with Your Users’ Present</a> (Interaction Design Foundation)† - Google Glass has not become the success it was anticipated to become. How do we learn to strike the right balance between the most advanced design and our users’ ability to accept our product?</li>
<li><a href="https://thefrailestthing.com/2014/08/21/preserving-the-person-in-the-emerging-kingdom-of-technological-force/">Preserving the Person in the Emerging Kingdom of Technological Force</a> (The Frailest Thing) - L. M. Sacasas presents a coherent critical theory take on why it is that Google Glass has so far been rejected by society.</li>
<li><a href="https://glazkov.com/2021/08/20/the-miracle-count/">The miracle count</a> (Dimitri Glazkov)† - Put simply, the miracle count is the number of unlikely events that we need to happen for a project to succeed. If your startup needs zero miracles to work, it probably isn't a defensible startup. If your startup needs multiple miracles, it probably isn't going to work.</li>
<li><a href="https://alexdanco.com/2020/02/28/vcs-should-play-bridge/">VCs should play bridge</a> (Alex Danco) - In bridge, your bids have to serve two purposes: they are both literal commitments (if your bid wins, you must follow through with it) and also coded signals which you use to try and telegraph information to your partner about where you see opportunity. This seems like a useful analogy to understand insanely high startup valuations.</li>
<li><a href="https://alexdanco.com/2021/01/11/why-the-canadian-tech-scene-doesnt-work/">Why the Canadian Tech Scene Doesn’t Work</a> (Alex Danco) - Canada has too many Bad Angel Investors. They focus too much on guaranteed winnings. They want to see structure: milestones, accelerators, incubators, mentorship programs, and other process-heavy things. Canada needs more Good Angels playing an infinite game. They need to contribute to a community; not in order to win something definite, but to earn the right to keep participating in the scene. I found this explanation a useful application of an otherwise annoying book.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Innovation systems</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/07/29/slow-ideas">Spreading Slow Ideas</a> (New Yorker) - Considers the speed of technological diffusion by comparing the fast spread of anesthesia to the slow spread of antiseptics. It comes down to fast feedback loops of seeing effects and technical complexity of applying the tech. Very insightful deep dive into more modern examples of slow diffusion of medical ideas and how to catalyze the process with human connection.</li>
<li><a href="https://guzey.com/ideas-not-mattering-is-a-psyop/">Ideas not mattering is a psyop</a> (Alexey Guzey) - Against the "ideas are cheap" trope, which I often invoke. I think this changed my view from "all that matters is execution" to some more balanced version of ideas mattering, execution mattering, and a million other things mattering.</li>
<li><a href="https://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html">The Deployment Age</a> (Jerry Neumann) - A somewhat long overview of Carlotta Perez's theory of technological change. Roughly speaking, Progress advances in surges, and each surge has two major stages. The first is "Installation", where a new technology irrupts and results in a speculative frenzy. The bubble pops, leads to a lot of broken hearts and empty wallets, but the frenzy leaves behind useful infrastructure. The second stage is "Deployment", during which the new technologies really revolutionize the world and reach maturity.</li>
<li><a href="https://mattsclancy.substack.com/p/combinatorial-innovation-and-technological">Combinatorial Innovation and Technological Progress in the Very Long Run</a> (What’s New Under the Sun)† — Introduces the concept of “combinatorial innovation,” where new inventions are composed of two or more older inventions; shows how this should, in theory, lead to explosive growth in technological progress; and explores some limiting factors that, in practice, limit us to slowing or constant progress.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/experts/">Experts From A World That No Longer Exists</a> (Collaborative Fund) - The biggest risk to an evolving system is that you become bogged down by experts from a world that no longer exists.  Clarke's First Law: "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is probably wrong." Henry Ford has a remedy for this problem: don't keep a record of failures: "If you keep on recording all of your failures you will shortly have a list showing that there is nothing left for you to try – whereas it by no means follows because one man has failed in a certain method that another man will not succeed". Definitely thought provoking, and interesting example of note taking as an info hazard.</li>
<li><a href="https://avc.com/2021/04/the-vision-thing/">The Vision Thing</a> (Fred Wilson) - Leadership comes in two flavors, visionary leadership and operational leadership. Founders are almost always visionaries and hired CEOs are almost always operators.</li>
<li><a href="https://rootsofprogress.org/a-career-path-for-invention">We need a career path for invention</a> (Roots of Progress) - “Inventor” is not a role one can be hired for. The aspiring inventor finds themselves straddling science and business. They could join a research lab, or become an engineer at a technology-based company. In either case, they will be misaligned with their environment.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/13/1028295/proud-solutionist-history-technology-industry/">Why I’m a proud solutionist</a> (Jason Crawford) - Jason highlights that there is a middle way between starry-eyed optimism and nihilistic pessimism. Nothing new here, but a good reminder of a stance that I am sympathetic to.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/why-germany-is-so-much-better-at-training-its-workers/381550/">Why Germany Is So Much Better at Training Its Workers</a> (The Atlantic) - Laments how hard it is to imagine many American firms, generally focused on short-term financial gain, building the kind of in-house training centers we saw at every German plant. They focus on "Dual training", which captures the idea at the heart of every apprenticeship: Trainees split their days between classroom instruction at a vocational school and on-the-job time at a company.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Urban design</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014/04/japanese-zoning.html">Japanese Zoning</a> (Urban kchoze) - US zoning laws impose one or two exclusive uses for every zone. Japanese laws tend to view things more as the maximum nuisance level to tolerate in each zone, but every use that is considered to be less of a nuisance is still allowed. So low-nuisance uses are allowed essentially everywhere. How did American zoning get so prescriptive and over-regulated? In general I am enjoying articles that point to a better system, or suggest concrete improvements to the existing one.</li>
<li><a href="https://devonzuegel.com/post/urban-density-is-a-tragedy-of-the-commons">Urban sprawl is a tragedy of the commons</a> (Devon Zuegel) - Space and access form a polarity. You want to have a big house, but you also want it to be close to places you like and need. Acknowledges that the underlying coordination problem is wicked, but also that there are many low-hanging fruit to increase access to amazing things without sacrificing space.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences">Cars and second order consequences</a> (Benedict Evans) - Evans follows two major trends in cars through some speculative scenarios: moving to electric means much more than replacing the gas tank with a battery, and moving to autonomy means much more than ending accidents. What happens to public transport? To parking garages? To long commutes? To surveillance due to multiple video cameras in every car?</li>
<li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/12/lost-cities-merv-worlds-biggest-city-razed-turkmenistan">Lost cities #5: how the magnificent city of Merv was razed – and never recovered</a> (The Guardian) - I only learned about Merv recently from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Lost_Enlightenment_by_Frederick_Starr">Lost Enlightenment by Frederick Starr</a>. A shocking story of collapse — from the largest city in the world in the 13th century to dusty, windswept remains. Even the name is lost.</li>
<li><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/drawing-pictures-of-cities">Drawing pictures of cities</a> (Noah Smith) - Smith breaks down what makes the famous Solar Punk image !<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Imperial_Boy_Solar_Punk_Art.png">Imperial Boy Solar Punk Art.png</a> so appealing. I loved the systematic breakdown of solarpunk aesthetics, which is still nascent and thus impervious to analysis.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Movable type</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://tricycle.org/magazine/buddhist-history-moveable-type/">The Buddhist History of Moveable Type</a> (Tricycle) - A deep look into early Buddhist Zen prints using metal typesetting. This predated Gutenberg’s press, but was not practical. It did not included mechanisms modified from wine or oil presses that allowed for lowering a metal frame over the top of the paper. The improved method was even, reliable, and fast.</li>
<li><a href="https://blog.gatunka.com/2009/09/30/japanese-typewriters/">Japanese Typewriters</a> (Gatunka) - A mechanical kanji typewriter is obviously complex for the sheer number of characters involved. But further difficulties arose from complicated glyphs such as 曇 or 驚, required striking with additional force to compensate for the large surface area of the typeface. Some echoes back to the printing press and challenges with movable type.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Climate change and resilience</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/michaelpidwirny/2017/11/02/climate-change-challenges-for-alpine-ski-resorts-in-western-canada/">Climate Change Challenges for Alpine Ski Resorts in Western Canada</a> - A deep look at how climate change will affect ski resorts over the next half-century. I really liked this analysis because it was scientific and specific, not hand-wringing, but also extremely sobering in terms of implications: "Under the worst-case scenario (by 2085) all of the coastal resorts will become much too warm to support winter recreation".</li>
<li><a href="https://alexsteffen.substack.com/p/ruggedize-your-life">Ruggedize Your Life</a> (The Snap Forward) - No place on Earth will escape climate and ecological upheaval, but some are better than others. Mostly this is a process of elimination: discard from consideration the places with severe risks, or multiple overlapping risks, and take a closer look at what’s left. The old advice that it’s smart to buy the smallest house in the best neighborhood you can afford is especially true from a "shit hitting the fan" perspective.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/is-it-better-to-plant-trees-or-let-forests-regrow-naturally/">Is It Better to Plant Trees or Let Forests Regrow Naturally?</a> (Wired) - Planting a trillion trees over the next three decades would be a huge logistical challenge. A trillion is a big number. If natural forest growth is cheaper and better, does that make sense?</li>
<li><a href="https://rootsofprogress.org/devanney-on-the-nuclear-flop">Why has nuclear power been a flop?</a> (Roots of Progress) - A multi-faceted look at Nuclear energy failure in the US. Super interesting angle is regulation around radiation levels. Specifically, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/alara.html">ALARA: As Low As Reasonably Achievable</a> "might seem like a sensible approach, until you realize that it eliminates, by definition, any chance for nuclear power to be cheaper than its competition."</li>
<li><a href="https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2021/05/how-to-design-a-sailing-ship-for-the-21st-century.html">How to design a sailing ship for the 21st century?</a> (Low Tech Magazine) - Seriously considers what it would take to rebuild global shipping on sailboats. Docking a 500 ton sailboat under sail? No thanks — we'll need tugboats! How practical it would be given today's population and appetites? (Not very)</li>
</ul>

<h1>Internet culture</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://society.robinsloan.com/archive/checkpoints/">Checkpoints</a> (Robin Sloan) - Made me aware of an internet subculture Robin calls checkpointing, after checkpoints in JRPG games which typically come between dangerous sections. Barely surviving, you come by surprise, to peaceful oasis where you can save your game before the boss fight. People have been leaving heartfelt comments to this effect. You have to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9XTqQbuavI">see it</a> to believe it.</li>
<li><a href="https://medium.com/@samo.burja/the-youtube-revolution-in-knowledge-transfer-cb701f82096a">The YouTube Revolution in Knowledge Transfer</a> (Samo Burja)† — Samo observes that an overlooked benefit of YouTube is that it allows novices to observe experts at work, reminiscent of the master-apprentice model. This has unlocked a form of mass-scale tacit knowledge transmission that is historically unprecedented.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2014/8/20/6046003/a-history-of-metaphors-for-the-internet">A history of metaphors for the internet</a> (The Verge) - If the internet is a highway, the government should regulate what people do on it. The cloud is weightless and intentionally vague, in sharp contrast with the industrial reality of remote datacenters. Skimps on a few interesting ones, like filesystems, which are an analogy from filing cabinets. And also the modern obsession with the Metaverse, a science fiction analogy.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Books</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://adactio.com/extras/notesontheculture/">A Few Notes On The Culture</a> (Iain M. Banks) - In which the author goes deep on his book series on The Culture. A fascinating tidbit which echoes in the books: "A planned economy can be more productive — and more morally desirable — than one left to market forces."</li>
<li><a href="https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/heresies-of-dune/">Heresies of “Dune”</a> (Los Angeles Review of Books) - Frank Herbert's grandparents helped found a socialist commune in Washington State, north of Tacoma. His father was raised there, and Herbert spent many of his young years there. Growing up, he rebelled and become a republican.</li>
<li><a href="https://commoncog.com/blog/the-3-kinds-of-non-fiction-book/">The three kinds of non-fiction books</a> (Commonplace)† - There are three kinds of non-fiction book: 💁‍♀️ narrative, 🌳 tree, and 🌿 branch. Tree books are books that lay out a framework of ideas (eg. Thinking Fast &amp; Slow). Branch books consist of a single idea. IMHO, these shouldn't be read.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Medicine and health</h1>

<ul>
<li><a href="https://reallifemag.com/doctors-orders/">Doctor’s Orders</a> (Real Life)† — A deep dive into vaccine hesitancy through the lens of a broader trend of the medicalization of society: when previously non-medical issues become medical and thus fixable, medical knowledge is elevated to the status of society’s ground truth, and medical advertising targets the individual consumer.</li>
<li><a href="https://qz.com/1010684/all-the-wellness-products-american-love-to-buy-are-sold-on-both-infowars-and-goop/">All the "wellness" products Americans love to buy are sold on both Infowars and Goop</a> (Quartz) - Many of the alternative-medicine ingredients in Amanda Bacon's wellness Moon Juice brand are sold—with very different branding—on the Infowars store, run by Alex Jones, a conspiracy theorist. The horseshoe theory of craziness.</li>
<li><a href="https://time.com/5752114/nazi-military-drugs/">How Methamphetamine Became a Key Part of Nazi Military Strategy</a> (TIME) - Pervitin, a methamphetamine (aka speed) helped German soldiers go on working for 36 to 50 hours without feeling any noticeable fatigue. Part of the speed of the Blitzkrieg literally came from speed. The drug was even dispensed to pilots and tank crews in the form of chocolate bars known as Fliegerschokolade and Panzerschokolade.</li>
<li><a href="https://aeon.co/essays/why-theres-no-such-thing-as-the-mind-and-nothing-is-mental">The mind does not exist</a> (Aeon) - Somewhat incoherent argument against the terms 'mind' and 'mental'. Mainly linked because of a pointer to a field called Psychoneuroimmunology. A fascinating study by Ader &amp; Cohen showed that the nervous system can affect the immune system. In the same way that Pavlov's dogs can be conditioned to drool on hearing a bell ring, rats given sugar water became immunosuppressed.</li>
</ul>

<p>†: Previously recommended in <a href="https://read.fluxcollective.org/">The FLUX Review</a>.</p>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>AI note garden: summarizer</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-summarizer"/>
    
    <updated>2021-12-17T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/ai-note-garden-summarizer</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>One benefit of keeping a long term note garden is that you can have
conversations with your past self. You wake up a slightly different person every
morning. Aggregated over years and decades, you slowly become a very different
person. But if you've been taking notes, a crystallized past self is still
around!</p>

<p>Unfortunately, your past self kinda sucked at note taking. He wrote too
verbosely. He was not familiar with note hygiene like putting the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLUF_(communication)">Bottom Line
Up Front</a>. Worst of all, he
picked the least descriptive note names, like "3D Automaton", "Geo Games", and
"Run". If he was still around, you would tell him to read <a href="/books/how-to-take-smart-notes/">How to Take Smart
Notes by Sonke Ahrens</a>, but your old self is
long gone.</p>

<p>What if we could summarize overlong, unstructured, poorly named notes
automatically, into terse but precisely descriptive golden nuggets?</p>

<!--more-->

<p>Just think of the possibilities...</p>

<ul>
<li>We could auto-generate far better names for your old notes, or suggest names
for new ones.</li>
<li>We could remind you what a rambling note was really about, or suggest a BLUF
paragraph for notes that seem to be missing it.</li>
<li>Each note's summary could then be used in other automatic generation tasks!</li>
</ul>

<h1>So how can we summarize long notes automatically?</h1>

<p>Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-3 are built on Transformer, a neural
network architecture that Google Research invented and open-sourced in 2017.
These models are trained on huge amounts of data, hence "Large". They are
designed to be universal, capable of performing a variety of different tasks.
Given some input text, the LLM predicts what words should come next. This simple
input-output signature leads to surprisingly flexible results. </p>

<p>As of 2021, LLMs seem to produce more compelling text summaries than older
models specialized for this purpose.</p>

<h2>Constraints of LLMs</h2>

<p>Although input length limits increased substantially since GPT-2, <strong>input length
is still limited</strong> to 2048
<a href="https://help.openai.com/en/articles/4936856-what-are-tokens-and-how-to-count-them">tokens</a>,
which maps to roughly 8000 chars. Some of my notes are well beyond this limit,
so inputting a long note verbatim is not possible. </p>

<p>Even without the token limit constraint, there is a natural <strong>recency bias</strong>
towards the latter part in the input. The model continues the provided input
string, so the last words of the input are naturally weighted more heavily.</p>

<p>Also, LLMs are trained on giant amounts of text, mostly harvested from things
people write on the internet. On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog. Dogs
can be a little bit crass, or make up facts, so it's no surprise that GPT-3
often does the same.</p>

<h1>Summarization ¶ by ¶ by ¶</h1>

<p>One naive approach might be to take the whole note, its first few sentences, or
its first couple paragraphs, and feed this as input to the summarizer. Even if
the note fits within the GPT-3 token limit, we would end up indexing on
arbitrarily selected last sentences of the input.</p>

<p>To better sample the whole note, my approach is inspired by <a href="https://openai.com/blog/summarizing-books/">OpenAI's book
summarization</a>, and reminiscent of
techniques I used for <a href="https://smus.com/crowdforge/">CrowdForge</a>. I summarize a
note paragraph-by-paragraph, where each paragraph becomes a line in a new
"paragraph" I call the summary. If an even greater summarization is desired, the
resulting paragraph can itself be summarized. My summarization approach,
succinctly:</p>

<p><img src="/ai-note-garden-summarizer/summarization-para-by-para.png" alt="Summary of summaries, paragraph by paragraph" /></p>

<p><strong>GPT-3 and Markdown</strong>: Markdown's funny characters can safely be stripped
before summarizing. Seeing URLs in the input makes GPT-3 want to produce URLs
too. These URLs look legit and the domain is often a real website, but the path
is almost always hallucinated. To prevent GPT-3 from generating bizarre
punctuation and URLs to nowhere, I convert the markdown to plaintext, and strip
all links.</p>

<p><strong>Short paragraphs</strong>: Some paragraphs are short and don't need to be summarized.
Single sentences can be thrown into the intermediate summary directly.</p>

<h1>Zero-shot, few-shot, fine-tuning, oh my!</h1>

<p><strong>Zero-shot</strong> is the simplest possible way to get GPT-3 to produce a summary of
input text. Here, we provide plaintext instructions requesting that a summary be
generated, with no examples of what sort of output we would like. Here's a
python f-String template that we can fill out and send to GPT-3:</p>

<pre><code>f'''Paragraph: 
{paragraph}
One sentence summary:'''
</code></pre>

<p><strong>Few-shot</strong> gives more control over the output. We can include a few examples
of expected results before providing the input paragraph: </p>

<pre><code>f'''Paragraph: 
{example_paragraph_1}
One sentence summary: {example_summary_1}
Paragraph: 
{example_paragraph_2}
One sentence summary: {example_summary_2}
Paragraph: 
{example_paragraph_3}
One sentence summary: {example_summary_3}
Paragraph:
{input_paragraph}
One sentence summary:'''
</code></pre>

<p><strong>Fine-tuning</strong> s the next level in optimizing output of the summarizer would be
to fine-tune the model with thousands of examples.</p>

<p>So far, I've found that few-shot and zero-shot paragraph summarization leads to
results that are on par in terms of their subjective quality. But prompt design
is not an exact science, and I'd expect better of an NLP expert (is that you?
please email me 😇).</p>

<p>Enough rambling. Show me the summaries, Lebowski!</p>

<h1>The good, the bad, and the funny</h1>

<p><style>
table {
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<table class="waffle" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 45px"><td class="s0" dir="ltr">Note name</td><td class="s0" dir="ltr">Zero-shot Sumsum</td><td class="s0" dir="ltr">Ratio</td><td class="s0" dir="ltr">Rating</td></tr><tr class="good" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The Coming Shock That Will Transform the U.S. Economy - bloomberg.com</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The rise of telecommuting, or working from home, was given a major boost by the pandemic, when so many Americans were forced to work from home.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">17.08 x</td><td class="s3" dir="ltr">GOOD</td></tr><tr class="good" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Matthew effect of accumulated advantage - success to the successful</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer, and the rich get richer.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">4.39 x</td><td class="s3" dir="ltr">GOOD</td></tr><tr class="good" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">How Limiting Latin Mass May Become the Defining Moment for Pope Francis - theconversation.com</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The Vatican has concluded that the traditional Latin Mass has not brought about the church unity Pope Benedict had hoped for.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">13.86 x</td><td class="s3" dir="ltr">GOOD</td></tr><tr class="good" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The novel is set in the Soviet Union in the 1930s. It is the story of a man who is arrested, tried, and convicted of crimes he did not commit. He is sent to a labor camp to be executed. He is released, and he tries to find the real criminals.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">10.98 x</td><td class="s3" dir="ltr">GOOD</td></tr><tr class="ok" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Grandpa interview</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">REDACTED tells his life story, from his birth in REDACTED, to his immigration to Canada in the early 1950s.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">13.13 x</td><td class="s4" dir="ltr">OK</td></tr><tr class="ok" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Rules of play notes</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">A game is a conversation between a game designer and a player. The designer creates the rules of the game, the player creates the experience of the game.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">16.63 x</td><td class="s4" dir="ltr">OK</td></tr><tr class="ok" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">VR Ideas</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The future of VR is a giant simulation of the real world.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">20.37 x</td><td class="s4" dir="ltr">OK</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">LiPo Batteries and Wiring</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The Solowheel is a self-balancing, electric unicycle. It is powered by a lithium polymer battery, and is controlled by a gyroscope. The gyroscope is a sensor that measures the rate of rotation around the three axes. The rider can control the speed of the wheel by leaning.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">4.83 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Parable of the Monkey on a Pedestal</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The first step should be to teach the monkey to read and recite Shakespeare.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">3.3 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">List of human hormones</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The Culture is a post-scarcity society that has developed a technology that allows its citizens to secrete hormones on demand.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">5.58 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">REDACTED sleep diary 2020</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">She&#39;s a little shit.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">30.7 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Complexity happens in a sweet spot</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Complexity is the amount of interdependence, connectedness, diversity, and adaptation in a system.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">19.45 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The Wind&#39;s Twelve Quarters by Ursula K. Le Guin</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">A man is on a train and sees a woman who looks exactly like his wife, but he&#39;s not sure if she is. He gets off the train and follows her, and finds out that she is his wife.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">9.43 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD)</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The zone of proximal development is the difference between what a learner can do without help and what he or she can do with help.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">3.82 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr><tr class="bad" style="height: 20px"><td class="s1" dir="ltr">Revolutionary technology vs technology revolution</td><td class="s1" dir="ltr">The internet is fucking awesome, but it isn&#39;t world changing.</td><td class="s2" dir="ltr">7.8 x</td><td class="s5" dir="ltr">BAD</td></tr></tbody></table>

<p>Some things to highlight from the results above:</p>

<ul>
<li>Some facts are completely made up, even with the original content to ground
GPT-3. The 1950s aren't mentioned anywhere in <code>Grandpa interview</code>.</li>
<li>Lists like <code>VR Ideas</code> and the Ursula Le Guin short story collection are
summarized in really unsatisfying ways.</li>
<li>GPT-3's synthesis between a diaper change, and too many wake-ups? "She's a
little shit." I sometimes feel that way too!</li>
<li><strong>Cherry picking</strong>: Some summaries overindex on one part of the note, and
ignore the rest. 
<ul>
<li>Overly focused on Solowheel in <code>LiPo Batteries and Wiring</code> even though I
only used it as an example of an EV using lithium iron phosphate battery
batteries.</li>
<li>Completely ignores the actual hormones in <code>List of human hormones</code>, and just
focuses on a small aside about the Culture novels. </li>
<li>Ignores the pedestal in <code>Parable of the Monkey on a Pedestal</code>, focusing on
just getting the monkey to read Shakespeare. Admittedly, this is the point
of the parable, but the result is not an adequate sumary.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>

<h1>Too much variety</h1>

<p>Looking through some of these random notes and their generated summaries, I am
reminded of the wide variety of notes in my garden. Some are collections of
favorite poems, quotes, and words I like. Others include references to images
and tables. Book summaries, meeting notes, recipes, sometimes even fragments of
code are all found in my garden.</p>

<p>To produce better summaries in the future, I'd first classify what sort of note
we're dealing with, and then pick from a variety of different summarization
techniques. The current approach doesn't work well on lists. Fragments of code
don't need to be summarized at all.</p>

<p>Stay tuned. I'll be back soon to introduce you to another AI-based note
gardener.</p>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/collapse-of-complex-societies-by-joseph-tainter"/>
    
    <updated>2021-11-12T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/collapse-of-complex-societies-by-joseph-tainter</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>I read Collapse of Complex Societies on GB' suggestion. This one was a doozie, and I must say, often over my head for its breadth of references into specific civilizations that I have no background with at all. And Tainter assumes you are either familiar with a broad variety of civilizations in detail, or will do the legwork to get there. As a result, I felt that this book was better suited to an Anthropology/Archaeology professional.</p>

<p>Tainter strives toward a general pattern of collapse, one that applies to all collapses at all times. Very simplified, it goes like this. A civilization grows, becomes more complex, and then crumbles under its own success. Succinctly:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Think of civilisation as a poorly-built ladder. As you climb, each step that you used falls away. A fall from a height of just a few rungs is fine. Yet the higher you climb, the larger the fall. Eventually, once you reach a sufficient height, any drop from the ladder is fatal.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse</p>

<h1>Tainter's general theory</h1>

<p>In Tainter's words, four concepts lead to understanding collapse, the first three of which are the underpinnings of the fourth. These are:</p>

<ol>
<li>human societies are problem-solving organizations</li>
<li>sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance</li>
<li>increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita, and</li>
<li>investment in sociopolitical complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point of <strong>negative</strong> marginal returns.</li>
</ol>

<p>Thus, while initial investment by a society in growing complexity may be a rational solution to perceived needs, that happy state of affairs cannot last. As the least costly extractive, economic, information-processing, and organizational solutions are progressively exhausted, any further need for increased complexity must be met by more costly responses.</p>

<p>Once a complex society enters the stage of declining marginal returns, collapse becomes a mathematical likelihood, requiring only time.</p>

<p>The following diagram is illuminating:</p>

<p>!<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Tainter's_diminishing_marginal_returns_in_complex_societies.png">Tainter's diminishing marginal returns in complex societies.png</a></p>

<p>I am immediately reminded of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Two_Watersheds_-_too_much_institutionalization">Two Watersheds - too much institutionalization</a>, but Tainter's argument is even more macro. The whole of society reaches the second watershed, and then sets itself on track for general collapse. </p>

<h1>Civilization = complexity</h1>

<blockquote>
  <p>The features that popularly define a civilized society - such as great traditions of art and writing - are epiphenomena or covariables of social, political, and economic complexity. Complexity calls these traditions into being, for such art and literature serve social and economic purposes and classes that exist only in complex settings. Civilization emerges with complexity, exists because of it, and disappears when complexity does.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Thus, Tainter argues, rising and falling complexity is a monitor for the phenomenon termed civilization.</p>

<h1>States are complex, chiefdoms are simple</h1>

<p>Tainter distinguishes between complex and simple societies. Most societies are complex, and governed by states. Robert Carneiro has estimated that 99.8 percent of human history has been dominated by states.</p>

<p>In contrast, simple societies, governed by chiefdoms are limited by the obligations of kinship and the lack of true coercive force. By the time human organizations emerged that today would be called a state, these limitations had been surpassed.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The features that set states apart ... are: territorial organization, differentiation by class and occupation rather than by kinship, monopoly of force, authority to mobilize resources and personnel, and legal jurisdiction.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Tainter sees states as a series of complex systems. Very much along the lines of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Thinking_in_Systems_by_Donella_Meadows">Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows</a>. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Complex societies tend to be what Simon has called "nearly decomposable systems". That is, they are at least partly built up of social units that are themselves potentially stable and independent, and indeed at one time may have been so.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>How are states formed? Conflict vs. integration theory</h1>

<p>Tainter fairly accuses the reader of being obsessed by collapse, and insufficiently interested in formation.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>It cannot be wholly resisted, for collapse may not be understood except in the context of how complex societies function and operate, and that cannot he divorced from the question of how they have come into being.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Conflict theory</strong> can be traced to Ibn Khaldun (1377). In essence, conflict theory asserts that the state emerged out of the needs and desires of individuals and subgroups of a society. The state, in this view, is based on divided interests, on domination and exploitation, on coercion, and is primarily a stage for power struggles (Lenski 1966: 16-17). More specifically, the governing institutions of the state were developed as coercive mechanisms to resolve intra- societal conflicts arising out of economic stratification (Fried 1967; Haas 1982: 20). The state serves, thus, to maintain the privileged position of a ruling class that is largely based on the exploitation and economic degradation of the masses.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Conflict theory suffers from a problem of psychological reductionism. That is, the emergence of the state is explained by reference to the wishes, intentions, needs, and/or desires of a small, privileged segment of society.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Integration theory</strong> suggests that complexity, stratification, and the state arose, not out of the ambitions of individuals or subgroups, but out of the needs of society. The major elements of this approach are: (a) shared, rather than divided, social interests; (b) common advantages instead of dominance and exploitation; (c) consensus, not coercion; and (d) societies as integrated systems rather than as stages for power struggles (Lenski 1966: 15-17). The governing institutions of the state developed to centralize, coordinate, and direct the disparate parts of complex societies.</p>

<p>Integration theory resonates with me. Specifically this framing as stratification as a necessary evil:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The costs of stratification are a necessary evil which must be borne to realize its integrative benefits. In basing the development of complexity on real, observable, physical needs (defense, public works, resource sharing, etc).</p>
</blockquote>

<p>It also does not preclude that compensation of elites does not always match their contribution to society.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>There is, however, a very important point that conflict and integration theory have in common. In both views, states are problem-solving organizations. Both theories see the state as arising out of changed circumstances,</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Types of collapse</h1>

<p><strong>Partial imperial collapse is common</strong> Tainter identifies a pattern in which an empire doesn't fully collapse, merely loses its colonies and reverts to being a standalone country:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Other cases that could be added to this list are the collapses of modern empires (such as the Spanish, French, and British). The demise of these empires clearly represents a retrenchment from a multi-national level of centralized organization that was global in extent. There are, however, differences from the majority of cases just discussed. Most notable is the fact that the loss of empire did not correspondingly entail collapse of the home administration.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Full imperial collapse is also possible</strong> Tainter describes the terrifying disintegration of Ottoman Turkish authority in 1918:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>the Allied troops... found a city that was dead. The Turkish government had just ceased to function. The electrical supply had failed and was intermittent. Tramways did not work and abandoned trams littered the roads. There was no railway service, no street cleaning and a police force which had largely become bandit, living on blackmail from citizens in lieu of pay. Corpses lay at street corners and in side lanes, dead horses were everywhere, with no organization to remove them.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Institutional collapse</strong> Each civilization may typically contain a number of individual political entities that themselves rise and fall. However the definition of "civilization" tends to be vague and intuitive. </p>

<p><strong>Cultural continuity</strong> Even if a civilization collapses, the culture tends to continuity.</p>

<h1>A catalog of other causes of collapse</h1>

<p>Tainter is skeptical about many commonly provided reasons for collapse:</p>

<ol>
<li>Depletion of vital resource</li>
<li>Establishment of a new resource base</li>
<li>Catastrophe</li>
<li>Insufficient response to circumstances</li>
<li>Other complex societies</li>
<li>Intruders</li>
<li>Class conflict, elite misbehavior</li>
<li>Social dysfunction</li>
<li>Mystical factors</li>
<li>Chance events</li>
<li>Economic factors </li>
</ol>

<p>None of these factors help understand collapse as a general phenomenon, applicable to all societies.</p>

<p>Tainter has general critiques of his predecessors: </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Rarely do authors question the logic of the climate proposition: How does or how can climatic fluctuations, invaders, and so forth lead to collapse? Can the postulated cause really account for the outcome? Is the explanation adequate?</p>
</blockquote>

<p><strong>Resource depletion</strong>: If a society cannot deal with resource depletion (which all societies are to some degree designed to do) then the truly interesting questions revolve around the society, not the resource. What structural, political, ideological, or economic factors in a society prevented an appropriate response?</p>

<p><strong>Elite misbehavior</strong>: To suggest that societies collapse because elites act unwisely explains little. Are there conditions under which elites act wisely or unwisely, or is this a random variable? Is it even a definable and measurable factor?</p>

<h1>Mechanisms for collapse</h1>

<p>Specialization =&gt; Reduction of resiliency</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Self-sufficiency and autonomy of local systems are reduced as specialization increases. As special-purpose subsystems become increasingly differentiated, stability declines. Disruptions occurring anywhere will be spread everywhere, whereas in less complex settings a society would be cushioned against disruptions by less specialization, less interlinkage among parts, and greater time delays between cause and ultimate outcome. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Elman Service's <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Law_of_evolutionary_potential">Law of evolutionary potential</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The more specialized and adapted a form in a given evolutionary stage, the smaller its potential for passing to the next stage.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>This rhymes quite a bit with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Great_Filter_solution_to_Fermi's_paradox">The Great Filter solution to Fermi's paradox</a>. Service also writes:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Successful complex societies become locked into their adaptations, and are easily bypassed by those less specialized. So by having greater flexibility, less complex border states gain an increasing competitive advantage, and are thus able ultimately to topple older, established states</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Another way of stating the same thing is the <strong>Dinosaur Model</strong>. Here, a complex society is seen as a lumbering colossus, fixed in its morphology, and incapable of rapid change. Locked into an evolutionary dead end, it represents an investment in structure, size, and complexity that is awesome and admirable, yet highly maladaptive. When stresses arise, such a society cannot adapt, and so must expire.</p>

<p>This rhymes very much with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Disruption_theory">Disruption theory</a> in business. This lock-in phenomenon can also be framed as a feedback loop: </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Other scholars implicate a positive feedback loop in collapse, from which escape is impossible. Colin Renfrew (1979) argues that under stress complex societies lack the option to diversify, to become less specialized. By doing more of what may have caused the problem in the first place, the breakdown of the system is made inevitable.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>The <strong>Runaway Train</strong> model may be a variant of the Dinosaur model, but it has its own distinct characteristics. A complex society is seen as impelled along a path of increasing complexity, unable to switch directions, regress, or remain static. When obstacles impinge, it can continue in only the direction it is headed, so that catastrophe ultimately results.</p>

<p>The <strong>House of Cards</strong> model differs from the previous two. It suggests that complex societies, either as a rule or in certain kinds of environments, are inherently fragile, operating on low margins of reserve, so that their collapse is inevitable.</p>

<p>The argument of these laws and models is that all societies, complex or otherwise, run the risk of adapting so well to existing circumstances that change becomes impossible.</p>

<h1>Complexity reduction =&gt; depopulation</h1>

<p>For Tainter, complexity reduction causes depopulation and not vice-versa. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Depopulation_is_often_correlated_with_decline">Depopulation is often correlated with decline</a></p>

<blockquote>
  <p>A complex society that has collapsed is suddenly smaller, simpler, less stratified, and less socially differentiated. Specialization decreases and there is less centralized control. The flow of information drops, people trade and interact less, and there is overall lower coordination among individuals and groups. Economic activity drops to a commensurate level, while the arts and literature experience such a quantitative decline that a dark age often ensues. Population levels tend to drop, and for those who are left the known world shrinks.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>High upkeep of complex societies</h1>

<blockquote>
  <p>Complexity and stratification are oddities when viewed from the full perspective of our history, and where present, must be constantly reinforced. Leaders, parties, and governments need constantly to establish and maintain legitimacy. This effort must have a genuine material basis, which means that some level of responsiveness to a support population is necessary.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Civilization itself (i.e., great complexity), to Rappaport, may be maladaptive: Civilisation has emerged only recently - in the past six thousand or so years - and it may yet prove to be an unsuccessful experiment' (Rappaport 1977: 65).</p>

<h1>Misc</h1>

<p>The Ik People are really fascinating:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Children are minimally cared for by their mothers until age three, and then are put out to fend for themselves. This separation is absolute. By age three they are expected to find their own food and shelter, and those that survive do provide for themselves. Children band into age-sets for protection, since adults will </p>
</blockquote>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Understanding How We Learn: A Visual Guide</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/understanding-how-we-learn-a-visual-guide"/>
    
    <updated>2021-11-04T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/understanding-how-we-learn-a-visual-guide</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>I read this book because it was recommended by C for work. This book serves as a nice visual summary of what we know about learning from a cognitive science perspective. The authors lament the large gap between what we know from this field and how educators do their job in practice.</p>

<h1>Educational myths</h1>

<p>Educational practices rely too much on intuition, and not enough on science. The authors make an analogy to medicine, and a scientific approach improved health outcomes dramatically around the turn of the 20th century. For examples, students read textbooks and notes repeatedly because it feels good, but this does not improve their learning outcomes. </p>

<p>Cognitive psychology can immediately debunk many myths in education:</p>

<ol>
<li>Individuals DON’T learn better when they receive information in their preferred learning style (e.g., auditory, visual, kinesthetic) <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Learning_styles_are_a_stubborn_myth">Learning styles are a stubborn myth</a></li>
<li>Environments that are rich in stimuli DON’T improve the brains of pre-school children.</li>
<li>Short bouts of coordination exercises DO NOT improve integration of left and right hemisphere brain function.</li>
<li>Exercises that rehearse coordination of motor-perception skills CAN’T improve literacy skills.</li>
<li>Differences in hemispheric dominance (left brain, right brain) DO NOT help explain individual differences among learners.</li>
<li>It has NOT been scientifically proven that fatty acid supplements (omega-3 and omega-6) have a positive effect on academic achievement</li>
<li>Emotional brain processes DO NOT interrupt those brain processes involved with reasoning</li>
<li>We DO NOT only use 10% of our brain</li>
<li>Memory is NOT stored in the brain much like as in a computer: each memory goes into a tiny piece of the brain</li>
<li>Children are NOT less attentive after consuming sugary drinks and/or snacks</li>
</ol>

<p>Good start. But it's hard to learn from a bunch of negation. The meat of the book is covered by first introducing human cognitive processes, which serve as an underpinning for everything. Then, the real gems are in the following section, which articulates  strategies for effective learning which were generated from theory, have been verified in the lab, and sometimes even in the classroom.</p>

<h1>Part 2: Summary of human cognitive processes</h1>

<h2>Sensation and perception</h2>

<p><strong>Sensation</strong> the output of sense organs. This will vary depending on your senses, but is generally objective</p>

<p><strong>Perception</strong> your interpretation of the sensations. This is generally very subjective, and depends on the context and the person</p>

<p>One way in which perception is subjective is illustrated by <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Intensity_of_stimulus_is_proportional_to_the_pre-existing_stimulus,_and_logarithmic_(Weber-Fechner_law)">Intensity of stimulus is proportional to the pre-existing stimulus, and logarithmic (Weber-Fechner law)</a>, which says that what you perceive is highly dependent on what you were just perceiving. This is true for both time and space.</p>

<p><strong>Bottom-up vs top-down processing</strong>: bottom-up processing focuses on the stimulus only, without bringing prior knowledge to make sense of it. This is similar to just sensing? Top-down processing involves using prior knowledge. For example, you hear a fire alarm, but know it was part of the fire drill, so remain calm (top-down). A baby, however, gets upset and cries (bottom-up).</p>

<p><strong>Curse of knowledge</strong> refers to the problem that a teacher may know a lot more than the student, and lack the empathy to decide how to properly explain something so that the student understands. Reminds me of https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/</p>

<h2>Attention and cognitive load</h2>

<p>Attention is a limited capacity resource. If you work on a difficult task, all of your attention is required. A simple task will leave you with some left over attention. <strong>Cognitive load</strong> is a measure of how much of someone’s attention will be required to grok an explanation. The goal, then, is to minimize cognitive load but still convey the concept.</p>

<p>Attention involves focusing on one thing at a time. <strong>Multi-tasking</strong> for humans is similar to multi-tasking for machines: you end up duty-cycling from one “simultaneous” activity to the next. And this causes both activities to be done worse than if they were done sequentially. Nice demonstration: </p>

<ol>
<li>Count aloud 1-26</li>
<li>Recite letters A-Z</li>
<li>Combine (1) and (2), reciting 1A, 2B, 3C, 4D, etc</li>
</ol>

<p>Empirically, it takes longer to do (3) than to do (1) + (2).</p>

<p>Attention can be focused towards the salient. For example, it’s easy to look around and quickly spot all objects that are red at will. In education, <strong>saliency</strong> comes from the students motivation, interest levels, the way the material is presented. This is very related to the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Krashen_-_Comprehensible_and_Interesting_Input">Krashen - Comprehensible and Interesting Input</a> approach.</p>

<p>Attention can also be lost, and this is known as <strong>mind wandering</strong>. This happens more during easy tasks, but also during very difficult tasks. This is one of the benefits of being in the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Zone_of_Proximal_Development_(ZPD)">Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD)</a>.</p>

<p>In the chunking example, where the authors provide the characters of CHAPTER6ATTENTION scrambled in random order, I am finding that I can remember it better with a mnemonic. I guess this is sort of the point of chunking: it’s a way for more information to be stored in short-term memory, by relying on “chunks” that are already in exiting memory.</p>

<p>Why does attention vary between people? Three theories, but no consensus:</p>

<ol>
<li>Differences in working memory capacity</li>
<li>Differences in processing speed</li>
<li>Differences in attentional control (uh, seems tautological)</li>
</ol>

<h2>Working memory</h2>

<p>Working memory is modeled by a few components:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>The phonological loop</strong>: stores and rehearses auditory and language information. I came across this recently noticing how much easier it is to remember OTP codes if I speak them out loud. The phonological loop need not rely on audible speech, subvocalizing works too (but maybe less effectively? Look into this)</li>
<li><strong>The visuospatial sketch pad</strong> helps store visual information, such as creating mental maps of how to go from the bedroom to the kitchen. It’s the machinery that lets you manipulate an object in your head.</li>
<li><strong>The central executive</strong> is not well defined in the book, presented as everything not in the two categories above.</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Memory is needed to do almost everything</strong>, from remembering names, to remembering how to do something, to doing basic things like comprehending speech, to having a coherent sense of self.</p>

<p><strong>Memory is reconstructive</strong> Recalling things is not a pure lookup as in a library or a computer. Memory is reconstructive, which means that every time you retrieve it, you are actually changing it. This means that memory is not objective, Many memories we have of things never happened, or happened very differently. Memories can also be changed by others.</p>

<p><strong>Short term memory only last 15-30 seconds</strong>. Psych experiments can easily be run where you administer a quiz to people in that time range to see short term memory performance, and longer to see long term memory performance. Subjects with long term memory loss do very poorly at 30s+ time intervals compared to those with normally functioning memory. (Example: H.M.)</p>

<h2>Memory representations in the brain</h2>

<p>Memories are <strong>encoded</strong> in the brain by groups of nerve cells (neurons) which are connected to one another via connections (synapses). When active neurons in a certain group are simultaneously active (engram), we are able to recall a concept. These engrams can be connected to one another (by synapses) by neuronal pathways.</p>

<p>When we learn, new groups of neurons activate in response to the incoming information. Ideally, these just active neurons undergo <strong>consolidation</strong>. Connections to other engrams are strengthened to create a long lasting engram. Ideal conditions involve sufficient rest and sleep.</p>

<p>Consolidated memories become <strong>stored</strong> as long-term memories, which makes them available for <strong>retrieval</strong>. But consolidation is not a one-time event. Every time a memory is retrieved, it is subject to reconsolidation.</p>

<p>This memory model helps motivate some pedagogic approaches: spaced practice, creating meaningful connections to existing knowledge, retrieving prior knowledge.</p>

<p>As soon as you encode something, you immediately start to forget it. Forgetting curves show an exponential drop off in retrieval performance over time. But forgetting is not a binary. Retrieval can be greatly helped for example by providing retrieval cues, which greatly increase performance.</p>

<h1>Part 3: Strategies for effective learning</h1>

<p>Studies on brain-training games suggest that performance on the games does not transfer to real-life tasks. </p>

<p>Each of the following section introduces a study technique that has been shown to work through studies. Many of them overlap one another.</p>

<h2>Spaced repetition: spread study activities out over time</h2>

<p>Ebbinghaus (1885) first showed that spacing repetition over time rather than massing them together (ie. cramming) led to better results long-term. This is replicated widely in RCTs in many contexts, seems like a pretty fundamental piece of the puzzle.</p>

<p>There is a well defined answer to the question “when should I be studying given that the test is on $DATE”. But how does this best work when there is no test, and the goal is just indefinite retention. Is this even a good goal? Surely there are benefits to forgetting things.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Forgetting_curves_show_how_quickly_information_is_naturally_forgotten">Forgetting curves show how quickly information is naturally forgotten</a></p>

<h2>Interleaving: switch between topics while studying</h2>

<p>Focus on the same topic during a study session will improve results in the short term. But long term studies show that results are dramatically better in the interleaved case. </p>

<p>Which concepts should be interleaved? Studies show that interleaving completely unrelated concepts (eg. Science concepts and foreign language vocab) doesn’t lead to especially good outcomes. Also unclear what the effect is on attention. Is it bad like multi-tasking, or good because it reduces boredom?</p>

<p>Overall, a spaced repetition practice often includes interleaving naturally. But the authors acknowledge that establishing a spaced repetition practice is tricky. I think it’s even trickier for non-school settings.</p>

<h2>Elaborative interrogation: ask and explain how and why things work</h2>

<p>Elaborative interrogation (EI) is a specific method of elaboration where you ask yourself questions of how and why things work, then produce answers. </p>

<p>Cousins include <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Socratic_dialogue">Socratic dialogue</a> and the chain of why questions that toddlers and young children are famous for.</p>

<p>A study (Woloshyn and Stockley) found that EI led to better long term retention than re-reading the material. It worked in both an individual condition (self-asking and answering) and in pairs (one asks, the other answers, WLOG). </p>

<p>Performance was even better if an adequate answer to the question was produced by the student. But only works if background knowledge high enough. Otherwise better to read for understanding. Caveat</p>

<h2>Concrete examples: illustrate abstract concepts with specific examples</h2>

<p>It helps to ground an abstract idea by giving concrete examples that tie back to the concept. For example, the notion of scarcity can be described abstractly:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Abstract: the rarer something is, the higher it’s value</p>
</blockquote>

<p>But seeing this for the first time may be hard to internalize, so providing a variety of examples is worthwhile:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Concrete: if you buy an airplane ticket 4 months in advance, there are many open seats on the plane and the price is low. If you buy last minute there are fewer (scarcity), and so their value is higher and the ticket costs more.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Even better is to provide multiple examples, from different domains. Given the above example, one about buying sports tickets would not be illuminating. But an example around water scarcity during a drought might be worthwhile.</p>

<h2>Dual coding: combine words with visuals</h2>

<p>Pictures are often remembered better than words, so the idea is to combine words and pictures to enhance learning. These can be diagrams, infographics, cartoon strips, etc. Presumably the same would apply to other mediums like video.</p>

<p>Combining modalities is helpful for all learners, not just those that like pictures or think of themselves as “visual learners”. Also, <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Learning_styles_are_a_stubborn_myth">Learning styles are a stubborn myth</a>.</p>

<p>One pitfall is to include visuals that are distracting because they are:</p>

<ol>
<li>Too far from the content being studied, or</li>
<li>Too much information, causing cognitive overload</li>
</ol>

<p>The goal is clear and simple diagrams related to the target text.</p>

<h2>Retrieval practice: bring learned information to mind from long-term memory</h2>

<p>Retrieval involves reconstructing something you’ve learned in the past, <strong>from memory</strong>, and thinking about it right now. The key part is that retrieval is done from memory, as opposed to having the reference material in front of you. (Abbott, 1909)</p>

<p>Direct benefit: retrieval practice is highly effective for long-lasting durable learning. This practice has been consistently shown to be more effective than repeated reading. It improves not just the memory’s durability, but also flexibility, helping make more far-reaching inferences. (Roedigger and Karpicke 2006)</p>

<p>Indirect benefit: students and teachers get feedback about what they know and don’t know. A computer system can track what students do and do not know.</p>

<p>Because memory is reconstructive, accessing it repeatedly might send signals to the brain that this bit is important. But a lot of the underlying principles of why retrieval practice works aren’t known yet.</p>

<p>Many possible forms of retrieval practice:</p>

<ul>
<li>Write everything they know on a blank sheet</li>
<li>Create concept maps from memory</li>
<li>Draw a diagram from memory</li>
<li>Explain what they can remember to another person</li>
</ul>

<p><strong>Need to be ZPD</strong>: If a retrieval task is too hard, students will be discouraged. If it’s too easy, they will be bored. Need to be in the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Zone_of_Proximal_Development_(ZPD)">Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD)</a>, while retaining <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Desirable_difficulties">Desirable difficulties</a>. </p>

<p><strong>Failed retrieval can still help</strong>: there is evidence that even a failed retrieval attempt can improve learning.</p>

<p><strong>Feedback &gt; no feedback</strong>: Authors discourage letting students self-grade. You can address their misunderstandings directly if you have an idea of what they got wrong.</p>

<p><strong>Delayed feedback?</strong>: Giving some feedback is better than giving none. But supposing we can give feedback, there’s also the question of when to best present it. But then there’s the danger of thinking they answered correctly when they were in fact incorrect.</p>

<h2>Strategy: frequent, low-stakes quizzes</h2>

<p>In addition to measuring performance, tests are also retrieval practice. But high pressure tests decrease learning benefits.</p>

<p>Both short-form answer and multiple choice quizzes have been shown to be effective. Short form answers are slightly better for retrieval, but not significantly (Smith and Karpicke, 2014). Multiple choice questions require a bunch of reasonable distractors to be effective.</p>

<h2>Scaffolding: retrieval practice should be modified for some learners</h2>

<p>Interesting if not directly related: this doesn’t work well on 4th graders, because the task of writing out everything they know on a blank sheet of paper is daunting. Young learners have a very low (9%) recall rate after reading a passage. </p>

<p>Solution might be to help them review the material first, which is called scaffolding. One example is to give a partially completed concept map based on the passage, then have the student fill out the rest, then do the recall. This has been shown to be very effective.</p>

<p>Look into this idea of “guided notes” for a subject. Take notes on a worksheet with cues and blank spaces, so that you are forced to take notes about specific concepts covered in class. (Konrad, Joseph &amp; Eveleigh, 2009)</p>

<h1>Establishing a spaced repetition practice is hard</h1>

<p>Again that damned study about how taking notes by hand is a better way to retain memory than by computer. (Muller &amp; Oppenheimer 2014)</p>

<p>Spacing practice is hard to get into. Authors suggest getting students to do personalized scheduling so that they can squeeze spaced retrieval sessions in on a daily basis.</p>

<ul>
<li>Spacing: find a regular time to review</li>
<li>Elaborative interrogation: ask questions about how and why things work</li>
<li>Concrete examples: think about turning ideas into concrete examples</li>
<li>Visuals: combine visuals and words</li>
<li>Retrieval practice: bring information to mind independent of any crutch</li>
</ul>

<h1>How to apply these strategies in AI-assisted learning</h1>

<p><strong>Elaborative interrogation</strong>: I wonder if it would help to let learners take one of the sides and the AI takes the other? Here's how it might work: </p>

<ol>
<li>Given a topic, generate some comprehension questions and have the learner answer. </li>
<li>Given a topic, have the learner come up with comprehension questions themselves.</li>
</ol>

<p><strong>Concrete examples</strong>: Can LLMs generate concrete examples of abstract concepts?</p>

<p><strong>Quiz short answer grading</strong>: Can LLMs be used to grade short answer questions for how well they match the model answer? Anki and Orbit don't do this at all.</p>

<p><strong>Quiz multiple choice distractors</strong>: Can LLMs be used to generate reasonable distractors?</p>

<p><strong>Scaffolding: concept maps</strong>: Can LLMs be used to provide scaffolding? Perhaps a concept map can be intelligently blanked depending on skill level?</p>

<p><strong>Scaffolding: guided notes</strong>: Can LLMs intelligently generate a cloze reading activity?</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Scout Mindset by Julia Galef</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-scout-mindset-by-julia-galef"/>
    
    <updated>2021-10-22T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/the-scout-mindset-by-julia-galef</id>
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        <p>It's been years since I would have said that I aspire to be a rationalist. But I've been swimming in rationality circles for long enough that some of the arguments and ideas in the book are somewhat trite. But I have enjoyed Julia’s podcast for her crispness of thought, ability to popularize, and pleasant voice. I'd recommend this book for someone unfamiliar with modern rationalism that's looking to get their feet wet. It's definitely a more coherent and less overwhelming starting point than lesswrong.</p>

<p>I was looking forward to the takedown of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Gerd_Gigerenzer_on_Gut_Feelings">Gerd Gigerenzer on Gut Feelings</a>, who’s ideas I am sympathetic to. </p>

<p><strong>Soldier mindset</strong> we tend to defend our beliefs against any evidence or arguments that might threaten them. Reasoning in the English language is often described through militaristic metaphors. We try to “shore up” our beliefs, “support them” and “buttress them” as if they’re fortresses. We try to “shoot down” opposing arguments and we try to “poke holes” in the other side.</p>

<p><strong>Scout mindset</strong> The scout’s job is not to attack or defend; it’s to understand. The scout is the one going out, mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles. Above all, the scout wants to know what’s really out there as accurately as possible.</p>

<p>Julia argues that scout mindset is always better than soldier mindset. There are some parallels to hedgehogs (Soldiers) and foxes (Scouts) too, as in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox_by_Isaiah_Berlin">The Hedgehog and the Fox by Isaiah Berlin</a>. There are also echoes of System 1 (Soldier) and System 2 (Scout) ideas from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Thinking_Fast_and_Slow_by_Kahneman_and_Tversky">Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman and Tversky</a>.</p>

<h1>Rational irrationality</h1>

<p>Sometimes it's rational to be irrational. For example, you your outcomes as a start-up founder might be better if you have irrational belief in yourself (IS). This can be described as "rational irrationality", which is paradoxical. My prior is that this is well warranted sometimes. </p>

<p>Galef diffuses this paradox and explains what's going on clearly and succinctly. What's happening is that two meanings of rationality are being used: </p>

<ul>
<li>Instrumental rationality involves the pursuit of a particular end goal, by any means necessary.</li>
<li>Epistemic rationality involves achieving accurate beliefs about the world.</li>
</ul>

<p>So, to rephrase the paradox is to diffuse it: it may be <strong>instrumentally</strong> rational to be <strong>epistemically</strong> irrational. This is highly related to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Information_Hazards">Information Hazards</a>.</p>

<h1>Always strive for epistemic rationality</h1>

<p>Galef argues the "тайное становятся явным" idea, something <a href="https://vseskazki.su/dragunskii-deniskiny-rasskazy/tajnoe-stanovitsya-yavnym.html">I grew up with</a>. Lying to yourself has the same downsides as other social lies that beget more lies. The cascade of muddled thinking proceeds with potentially very long delays and unpredictable outcomes. This is a good argument.</p>

<p>Elon Musk assigned a 10% chance of success to his ventures Space X and Tesla, but decided it was worth trying anyway. Mainly because of the cool factor and his ideological considerations. Green energy!! Electric cars!! Also, space!! But also, rationally speaking, the expected outcome was still high, since the impact of being successful was potentially so great. This resonates with me too, and part of why I think it's worth starting an early stage company one day.</p>

<p>But I still struggle with the absolutist framing that Galef presents. Surely there are situations where you would rather not have maximum rationality? Perhaps actual Infohazards? Or information that would best not be known to you. For example, if you somehow knew exactly how long you would live, it's easy to imagine negative second order effects.</p>

<h1>Thought experiments for clearer thinking</h1>

<p>Sometimes, if you're about to make a difficult decision, Galef suggests trying one of these thought experiments:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>The double standard test</strong>. Are you judging one individual or group by a standard that is different from other individuals or groups?</li>
<li><strong>The outsider test</strong>: how would you evaluate this situation if it wasn’t your situation?</li>
<li><strong>The conformity test</strong>. If other people no longer held the view, would you no longer hold it?</li>
<li><strong>The selective skeptic test</strong>. If this evidence supported the other side, how credible would you judge it to be?</li>
<li><strong>Status quo bias test</strong>. If your current situation was not the status quo, would you actively choose it?</li>
</ul>

<p>I suspect the hardest part about Galef's advice is being sufficiently mindful to decide that now is a good time to try.</p>

<p>The idea of calibrated bets is a great one that I've incorporated into my New Years routine. I set predictions for a year ahead on all fronts (SSC, AK inspired) and then see how well calibrated I am. </p>

<p>However generating probabilities for predictions is always tricky. Galef also introduces a technique for called the <strong>equivalent bet test</strong>, which she attributes to Douglas Hubbard. The way it works is to compare the issue at hand to a simpler scenario where you randomly draw balls from a jar. One of N balls in the jar is black, and the rest are white. You play with which N would feel right so that both bets yield the same winnings.</p>

<h1>Celebrity calibration</h1>

<p>I love that Galef picks on Spock, who is often considered a model of rationality. By showing how poorly calibrated he is, she also dispels the idea that being rational means being robotic and failing to understand humans. </p>

<p>In spirit of Spock’s poor calibration, what can we say about Elon Musk's calibration? He gave 10% chance of success to two of his successful companies!</p>

<h1>Epistemic vs. social confidence</h1>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Social_confidence_vs._epistemic_confidence">Social confidence vs. epistemic confidence</a></p>

<ul>
<li>Soldier as press secretary: extremely high social confidence, and artificially
inflated, unawarranted epistemic confidence.</li>
<li>Scout as board of directors: calibrated epistemic confidence. Knowing what is
really true is extremely important.</li>
</ul>

<p>Her example of Vitalik Buterin is maybe slightly unfortunate. He seems really smart, and appears to be well calibrated epistemically. But he is too dorky to be a paragon of social confidence, in my opinion.</p>

<h1>Keep your identity...?</h1>

<p>Julia Galef and Paul Graham are overly bearish on identity. But identity is what makes you who you are. By rooting it out you demolish your own uniqueness, traditions, original insights. In this sense I am in favor of intersectionality, but broadly construed. Diversity (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Measuring_non-woke_diversity_broadly">Measuring non-woke diversity broadly</a>) not of skin color and gender but of substantive and nuanced things like having been homeschooled, or being a practicing orthodox Christian or believing in Gaia theory or the fact that you raised three children on a 30’ sailboat circumnavigating the globe. Maybe you are super old and survived the Leningrad blockade. Maybe you grew up in desperate poverty. Or even, that you grew up as the son of a Saudi Prince. These things will give you a different perspective on life, and are genuinely valuable to bring to the table.</p>

<p>Great. Reminder. About. Righteous. Sentences. Produced. By. Emphatic. Use. Of. Periods. </p>

<p>I 👋 Should 👋 Use 👋 This 👋 Trick 👋 Way 👋 More 👋 Often.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>History of Future Cities by Daniel Brook</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/history-of-future-cities-by-daniel-brook"/>
    
    <updated>2021-10-20T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>This book explores planned cities over the centuries, built in the not-west to emulate western iconic cities: St. Petersburg, Mumbai, Shanghai, and Dubai. The whole east-west distinction is a bit funny, and the author disparages it by the end. The selection of cities is also a bit arbitrary.</p>

<p>I usually read books linearly, having never quite mastered the art of skimming. However in this book, each chapter covers one period of each city's history, and I decided to read the St. Petersburg sections first. I learned a lot about my birth-city, piecing together little stories that I'd known into a grander narrative, and filling in new ones. The architectural tour aspect of the book also pleasantly surprised me.</p>

<p>But there were also shortcomings. First, there are strange factual errors. For example, Kunstkamera was not the first public museum in the world, which the author claims (twice!). Second, liberties are taken to shoehorn the history of St. Pete into a very slick narrative centered around an idea that St. Petersburg is a fake city, a Potemkin village. This vantage point is somewhat disparaging, and profoundly western. I don't think Потёмкинские деревни have nearly the same cultural significance in Russia.</p>

<p>Ultimately I won't read the whole book, and can't broadly recommend this one unless you have personal ties to one of the cities.</p>

<hr />

<h1>St. Petersburg: 1703 - 1825</h1>

<p>German - немец shares a root with немой - mute. A general shorthand for all foreigners. </p>

<p>Peter I traveled incognito 🥸 thru Amsterdam as Peter Mikhailov. He got an internship at a shipyard and truly lived that life for four months. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Amsterdam was a kind of factory for creating modern people… just as a well designed sawmill could transform rough timber into uniform usable planks so too a city, if properly designed could shape even the toughest hewn barbarians into civilized men and women. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>(Very Le Corbusier: A house is a machine for living in)</p>

<p>Witnessing the parliament of William III shortly after the glorious revolution, Peter remarked that it was good that the ruler was given counsel, but to be bound by any of it was an outrage. </p>

<p>Peter concluded his trip to Holland with realization of importance of sea port. But Russia was landlocked, so he conquered St. Petersburg which was Swedish at the time. </p>

<p>As a modernization means, Peter forced all men to shave their beards and cut off the flowing sleeves of their caftans. </p>

<p>St. Petersburg was built by serfs on 6 month tours of duty. Peter ordered 40,000 a year. And they didn't even have wheelbarrows. Known as a “city built on bones”. Peter boasted 100,000 died building it. Reminds me of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Roman_slaves_were_cheaper_than_machines">Roman slaves were cheaper than machines</a></p>

<p>Peter mandated travel by boat, but banned oars to force his people to learn how to sail by the wind alone. Nobles were gifted sailboats whose size corresponded to their rank. Peter built canals throughout the city to facilitate travel by water, but neglected to consider that they would freeze in winter.</p>

<p>Peter imported books on architecture and employed hundreds of foreign architects. His lead was <strong>Dominico Trezzini</strong>. The city arose out of imported theory rather than locally rooted processes, and tended towards extremes. </p>

<p>The Kunstkamera, constructed in 1727 was the first public museum in Russia (author claims the world, but AFAICT it's The Ashmolean in Oxford, c. 1683), where Peter hoped to educate the general public. When his aides suggested he charge for entry, he even provided visitors with vodka and snacks. </p>

<p>Peter began hosting concerts of instrumental music, which was illegal in Moscow because god had to be praised by the human voice alone. He imported French salons as “assemblies” which he observed in Paris.</p>

<p>In Moscow, the German quarter was cordoned off from the rest of city out of fears that foreigners would corrupt the Russians with their unorthodox ways. In St. Petersburg, the немцы were integrated and were allowed to build non-orthodox churches and even conduct services in foreign languages. </p>

<p>By 1720 st. Pete had population of 40,000. Thirty years before, it was a swamp. </p>

<p>Peters son Alexis did not approve of St. Petersburg, thinking it was too western facing. He attempted a coup and vowed to return the capital to Moscow. Peter sentenced his own son to death in 1717. </p>

<p>Peter was succeeded by Anna, an empress and intellectual lightweight who did little and reverted to frivolity. She built the worlds largest ice palace. But she also commissioned the winter palace (hermitage) done by <strong>Bartolommeo Rastreli</strong>. Was she all that useless?</p>

<p>Catherine married Peter's grandson Peter III and took the throne in 1762. By then the city's population was 100,000. She followed in Peter's footsteps, turning it westward again. She hired <strong>Giacomo Quarenghi</strong>. All architects seemed to have been inspired by Palladio. </p>

<p>Catherine amassed European art. Her collection of 4000 paintings rivaled what generations of French kings collected in the Louvre for four centuries. </p>

<p>Catherine corresponded with Voltaire, who wrote a hagiography of Peter I. She imported Voltaire's works and invited Diderot to Russia. His stay was short lived since he had some radically egalitarian ideas. He saw Russia as a blank slate that was easier to reform than Europe. (Prescient given the communist revolution to come). Ultimately Diderot was booted for suggesting to dismantle Russian serfdom, a system of “masters and slaves”, which was the last straw. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Not only was the empress seeking advice from foreign experts when Peter had vowed that Russia would “show Europe its ass”, but when they offered advice to empower the people, the empress refused to take it. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Catherine did take some advice. And attempted to bring open debate by running public salons in the winter palace. But the French Revolution of 1789 changed this openness. And her lieutenant Radischev wrote a French Revolution inspired “Journey from St. Petersburg to Moscow”, highly sympathetic to the plight of serfs, including plans for abolition. This closed the window for Catherine and Russia was firmly an autocracy. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Open debate would reign within the winter palace even as autocracy prevailed outside its walls. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>When Alexander I, grandson of Catherine, defeated napoleon and entered Paris in 1814, Peter the Great's vision of modernity without democracy was fulfilled. Russia was compared to Rome and Alexander I went on a building spree, rapping <strong>Carlo Rossi</strong>, who trained in Rome. He was most famous for the general staff building and an arch. </p>

<p>French influences were still prominent even after 1814. <strong>Auguste de Montferrand</strong> redesigned the St. Isaac's cathedral. In his bid he presented oil paintings of many possible styles: Indian, Chinese, Byzantine, green etc. but the choice was obvious: giant gilded neoclassical dome. Just like the best of Europe!</p>

<p>As the Russian army marched through Europe pursuing the fleeing armies of Napoleon, they saw what Europe was like, and how much more advanced it was than Russia economically, socially, educationally and politically. St. Pete’s in contrast began to seem like a “Giant Potemkin village”.</p>

<p>This planted the seeds of the Decembrist revolt, organized by six members of the imperial guard, who wanted to bring constitutional government to Russia. Waiting for a succession, they vowed to make a move during the chaos that would ensue. Instead, they were massacred in front of the Hermitage.</p>

<p>Subsequently, to tamp down future rebellions, Nicholas I instituted a secret police to watch dissent, suggested that European travelers come back with criticism, and pared back liberal arts education to focus on technical subjects instead. The window to the west was closing. </p>

<h1>St. Petersburg: 1825 - 1934</h1>

<p>Mind blowing connection of the Russian word вокзал named after the first train station in Tsarskoe Selo, modeled after Vauxhall station in London. “A permanent reminder of Russia's cribbed modernity at its most blatant”.</p>

<p>Fittingly, the first railway line connected the capital with the tzar's residence, a vanity project. Meanwhile, a national railway network was nixed out of fear that “frequent purposeless travel would foster the restless spirit of our age”. Reminds me of the crackdown on <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Parasitism_in_Soviet_Russia">Parasitism in Soviet Russia</a>.</p>

<p>Funny: when European fashions changed to wearing facial hair, Petersburgers followed suit, reversing Peter's decree. Gogol mocks this in “Nevsky prospect”.</p>

<p>The Crimean War loss at the end of Nicholas I's rule was a wake up call. His son Alexander II took the reigns and undid many of the harshest policies of his predecessors. He freed the serfs in 1861, freeing 22 million people and set Russia up for an industrial path.</p>

<p>Sept 1 1861: St. Petersburg University Rebellion demanding a democratically elected leader not a tzar. I've never heard of this, nor had dad, and so I dug in a bit. The author claims "the university was closed outright for two years", while <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg_Imperial_University">Wikipedia says</a> "it was temporarily closed twice during the year".</p>

<p>Narodniks were student intellectuals that went to the people (народ) to try to spread revolutionary ideas. First they tried with pamphlets but the peasants were illiterate (hmm... really?). Then they tried with speeches and the peasants reported them to the tzar. By 1877, 1600 students were imprisoned in Peter and Paul fortress. </p>

<p>The radicals adopted another strategy. A new organization, The People's Will began to assassinate key regime officials. Alexander II had his liberal interior minister draw up plans to ease censorship, abolish secret police and allow elected representatives to vote in national affairs. Alas, the peoples will succeeded after six attempts to assassinate the tzar. </p>

<p>Instead of triggering a revolution, they triggered succession, and Alexander III was far more conservative than his father. Rather than moving the capital back to Moscow, he brought Moscow to St. Petersburg by erecting a large cathedral: Church of the Savior on Spilled Blood. This structure designed by an archimandrite (orthodox title) with no architectural background, stood out like a sore thumb in the middle of the city. “A deliberate intrusion of the real Russia onto the Petersburg scene”.</p>

<p>Alexander II spurred economic development and sent his finance minister Michael von Reutern to pitch Russia as an emerging market with western conveniences and convenient labor practices. Workers were cheap, had no rights, no ability to speak freely, publish, march, or vote. This was a resounding success and Russia grew at 8% per year from 1860-1900. The Russia American red triangle rubber factory 🔺🏭 was built then. My grandparents worked there for decades. That's where they met.</p>

<p>Meanwhile the city was densifying as more and more peasant workers were moving in. Soon it was twice as crammed as Paris, Berlin, or Vienna. The death rate was highest of all European cities in 1870. Peterburgers topped the nation in vodka consumption, crime was rampant, prostitution was legal and ubiquitous.</p>

<p>Mass education was one of the rare successful social endeavor in St. Petersburg around this time. By 1910, 80% of the population was literate, and this mass literacy was a social innovation the elite would come to regret.</p>

<p>Singer Sewing Machine an example of another company establishing Russian HQ. The Singer Building was architecturally notable. One of many, though.</p>

<p>Putilov Works was a giant ironworks employing 12,000 people, operated by the richest merchant oligarch family of the era. Attempts were made to control them by building incongruous churches adjacent to the plant, but this failed. Eventually, under Gregory Gapon, workers organized and went on strike when four of them were fired for joining the union. In 1905, a general strike extended to 120,000 Petersburgers. A petition was extended demanding freedom of speech, press and assembly, free public education, minimum wage, an eight hour work day, and legalization of unions.</p>

<p>Five thousand protesters led by Gapon were joined by curious sympathizers as they marched along Nevsky prospect. By the time they converged onto the Winter palace, 60,000 men, women, and children awaited. What followed was a massacre claiming 1,000 lives called “Bloody Sunday”, when Tzarist troops opened fire. What followed was a revolution in which the weak tzar Nicholas II, recently defeated by Japan, escaped to Tsarskoe Selo. Eventually the people got what they wanted: autocracy was abolished and a parliament (the Duma) was founded.</p>

<p>However this democratic stint was short lived. In 1906, nearly half of the Duma’s representatives were rural peasants, underscoring Russia’s backwardness (really?). Further, Nicholas II dissolved the Duma and called for new elections. He did this repeatedly to limit the socialists in its ranks.</p>

<p>Nicholas II became increasingly insular, hiding from the people in Tsarskoe Selo. He pined for the Russia before Peter the Great turned westward, adopting the title tzar (instead of emperor, preferred by Peter and used by many Russian monarchs). He wore a beard, a caftan with long impractical sleeves, and commissioned his architects to build the <a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A4%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80_(%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD)">Feodorov village</a>, a mini walled town modeled after the 17th century. </p>

<p>In St. Petersburg, he built the Romanov Tercentenary to commemorate the 300 anniversary of Romanov rule.</p>

<p>World War I gave Nicholas the opportunity to turn populist. A crowd of 250,000 sang “боже царя храни”, and then burnt the German embassy to the ground. He renamed the city to Petrograd since “burg” was viewed as too German. No matter that it was named after Holland.</p>

<p>But the jubilation was short lived, and massive casualties begat draft dodgers, crowds chanting “Down with the autocracy”, singing the Marseillaise, and rioting. Police stations, prisons, courthouses were torched. Protesters were killed by the dozens, and soon the army refused to fire on more people.</p>

<p>Nicholas abdicated the throne and gave up power to his brother, who also refused it. A temporary government was set up under Kerensky.</p>

<p>Some concessions were given to the labor movement: an eight hour work day. But real wages plummeted and unemployment skyrocketed. </p>

<p>Lenin’s Bolsheviks called for national transformation, echoing Peter the greats conviction he could autocratically wrench Russia into the modern world without having to wait for more organic development from below. </p>

<p>After the successful October revolution, Lenin found himself in a civil war which erupted against an alliance of opponents aided by anti-communist western powers like Britain, France, and the USA. The capital was moved from Petrograd to Moscow for military strategic reasons. </p>

<p>In the Kremlin centuries ago, a bearded theocratic elite ruled Russia following eternal truths of church teachings. Now a new class of grey men would rule according to the holy canon of official Bolshevik doctrine. (Really?)</p>

<p>After the civil war was won and the whites were crushed, major changes came to St. Petersburg. Originally the gateway through which European ideas including Marx’s flowed into the country. When Lenin came to power, new ideas became a threat. Lenin quickly set up the Cheka secret police to stifle Petrograd's “embittered bourgeoisie intelligencia”. Meanwhile wages fell and food became scarce and Petrograd dropped from 2.3 million in 1918 to 0.7 million in 1920 (!!) as workers returned to their villages and became peasants again. (Shocking drop— was it due to foreign divestment?)</p>

<p>Worker strikes spread to the naval installation of Kronstadt, and 10,000 sailors rose up against Bolshevism. The rebellion was crushed violently but made Lenin lay off Petrograd and give the city a bit of breathing room. When Lenin died in 1924 the city was renamed in his honor. </p>

<p>Meanwhile Russia felt to the exterior world like once again a promising blank slate as under Catherine the great. This time there were more talented Russians  to lead the charge. </p>

<p>The Bauhaus movement found eager home in the Soviet state. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatlin%27s_Tower">Tatlin's Tower</a> was an ambitious modern example of such a project but was never built for lack of funds. </p>

<p>Constructivism became Russia's distinctive style of modernism integrating obsession with geometry and perspective. Example: <a href="http://architectuul.com/architecture/gorky-palace-of-culture">Palace of Culture</a>. <a href="https://newhumanist.org.uk/articles/2301/on-tractor-street">Tractornaya Ulitsa</a> homes were a tasteful update on classic Petersburg forms. I'm reminded of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Palaces_for_the_People_by_Eric_Klinenberg">Palaces for the People by Eric Klinenberg</a>, just making the connection from the name.</p>

<p><strong>Erich Mendelssohn</strong> was brought to design red banner factory in 1925, which looked like a giant ocean liner ready to set sail. </p>

<p>This period of early soviet avant-garde was short lived as cultural conservatives gained the upper hand, chief among them Stalin. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>As in the Age of Enlightenment, Russia’s window on the west birthed dreams of a glorious future only to smother them. </p>
</blockquote>

<h1>St. Petersburg: 1934 - 1985</h1>

<p>Using Kirov’s murder as pretext, Stalin issued an order expediting political investigations. The soviet constitution did guarantee some civil liberties, but these no longer applied. It’s now widely believed that Kirov was killed on Stalin’s orders too. Anyway, the result was a giant supposed conspiracy in which thousands of Russians were accused of being in cahoots with western capitalist powers.</p>

<p>The Great Purge ultimately took millions of people. Not just active party cadres, but anyone politically or intellectually active, including my great grandfather. “Black Ravens” would come by night in black vans and disappear “enemies of the people”. And most of these were in Leningrad, a gateway to western ideas which helped launch the revolution, and was now such a threat to the new regime.</p>

<p>Stalin likely admired Hitler’s June 1934 Night of the Long Knives, in which he orchestrated murder of his fellow Nazi Party founders.</p>

<p>During his decades of rule, Stalin hardly ever set foot in Leningrad, made many attempts to downgrade it to just another city. Even in the first five year plan in 1928, Stalin focused on industrializing the rest of the country, divesting from Leningrad. The Bolsheviks renamed the streets around Спас на Крови after the names of the murderers of Alexander II, but Stalin changed the names back, to ensure those that rise up against their leaders were not glorified.</p>

<p>Stalinist architecture was built with neoclassical facades, replacing modernist avant-guard of the old soviet state. These structures were massive and imposing, a return to order reminiscent of the Romanovs, but also epitomizing high modernism. An example of this is House of the Soviets, and everywhere, giant statue of Lenin loomed.</p>

<p>Hitler called Leningrad “the poisonous nest from which, for so long, Asiatic venom has spewed forth into Europe”, and aimed for full destruction. Awesome!</p>

<p>Head of Hermitage <strong>Iosif Orbeli</strong>, anticipating German invasion, packed half a million objects and sent them east to Sverdlovsk just before the Germans severed the rail connections, as the city was falling apart.</p>

<p>By 1941, the Germans had fully cut off food supplies from Leningrad. Once the crumbs were consumed, tens of thousands of died a month. People survived eating binding glue from books, boiling belts into thin soup, eating mysterious meat patties. Over a million died in the 900 day siege. And this is not ancient history — my grandfather lived through this.</p>

<p>Stalin may have been deliberately slow to stop the siege, as he watched the city he hated be crushed by Nazi air raids. The Smolny party headquarters were camouflaged, while great buildings like St. Isaac’s and the Admiralty were not. And party members were not starving like the commoners. Their only wartime rule was: no seconds of meat!</p>

<p>Throughout all this in 1941, a strike broke out at Kirov Works (formerly Putilov Works), where strikers demanded an end to Stalin’s Russia. This in the context of being fully cut off from the rest of Russia was a fascinating political threat from within. </p>

<p>The history associated with this period did not jive well with the party line. The curator of the Blockade Museum, which opened a few months after the end of the war, was promptly shot, and museum closed. Even the official Monument to the Defenders of Leningrad did not open until the 70’s.</p>

<p>Stalin's personality cult continued, and globalism was further curtailed. The Internationale, which called for universal proletarian solidarity was replaced with the soviet anthem, which name dropped Stalin. International Prospect was renamed after Stalin too.</p>

<p>In menial jobs there was no pressure to join the Party, so people took them, punched in, and spent the workday writing music and poetry. 1949 confiscation of saxophones. What.</p>

<p>Never heard of "Санкт Петербург" the punk band, actually pretty good, look up Владимир Рекшан.</p>

<h1>St. Petersburg: 1985 - ~now</h1>

<p>Under Gorbachev the city turned westward again and people made great strides in civil rights, especially of speech and assembly. </p>

<p><strong>Angleterre Hotel</strong>, a historical landmark was due to be razed in 1987. A crowd gathered to protest and the leader was told by officials that no such thing would happen. Half an hour later the hotel was demolished. A sign of the times, rather than dispersing the crowd stood its ground and formed an “information point”, dissenting in public. Known as Battle of the Angleterre.</p>

<p>In the <strong>Mikhailovsky Garden</strong>, Peter's assemblies and Catherine’s salons were revived on Saturday afternoons. This “Hyde Park” was shutdown and then moved to Nevsky prospect!</p>

<p>I didn't know the new name of the city was decided by popular referendum in June 1991. Choices were Leningrad and St. Petersburg. Solzhenitsyn wanted Svyato-Petrograd which is a bit awkward, and never made ballot. </p>

<p>Anatoly Sobchak, former head of Leningrad Soyuz was elected as head of Leningrad mayor of St. Petersburg. He aimed to turn the city into a special economic zone after China. He established ties with us universities and mega corps like Coca Cola and Gillette began opening offices in St. Pete. </p>

<p>Rather than a China-style transition to market economy slowly weaning unproductive industry from subsidies, St. Pete endorsed immediate removal of price controls, calling it “shock therapy”. The result was skyrocketing prices, "all shock and no therapy". Interesting debate about Shock Therapy between Joseph Stiglitz (against) and Jeffrey Sachs (in favor). Look into it later.</p>

<p>Major industries were converted into private companies and Russians were given a share worth 20$ of the new companies. Ownership was soon concentrated by those that had secretly accumulated money, taking advantage of cash strapped Russians. These new oligarchs rather than build up the companies, decided to sell everything and, and make out like bandits, literally. The St. Petersburg economists that endorsed this were so taken by the beauty of their theories that they were blinded by the damage on the ground. They became known as "Market Bolsheviks".</p>

<p>Western firms found that they needed to be headquartered in Moscow, since that is where the clique in power was based. Even Maersk, the Dutch shipping giant, moved their Russian headquarters to landlocked Moscow.</p>

<p>The early 90s were extremely rough: from 1990 to 1995, the number of Russians living on $4 a day or less went from 2M to 60M. Life expectancy went from 68.5 to 64.5. "everything Marx said about communism was wrong, but everything he said about capitalism was right"</p>

<p>By 1998, the ruble had collapsed. This economic chaos began to be associated with democracy in the Russian mind, and the people pined for a strong leader. Putin's Russia would be autocracy reborn. The next bits go into Putin's biography, mostly a rehash of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Nothing_is_True_and_Everything_is_Possible">Nothing is True and Everything is Possible</a>. Notably Putin consolidated TV networks under state control. Gasprom, the giant government owned conglomerate, benefited greatly from spikes in oil demand in the early 21st century. </p>

<p>The last St. Pete gubernatorial election was in 2003. In 2004, a law was passed that makes heads of all "federal subjects" (provinces, republics, territories, federal cities like St. Pete) appointed directly by the President of Russia. In the west we have checks and balances. In Russia we have check and mate (I made that up)</p>

<p>Valentina Matviyenko, Putin's puppet established the city as a Potemkin village, polishing the center but letting the heart rot. Russian visas are hard to come by, but it's very easy to get a 48 hour visa if you're coming to St. Pete on a Baltic cruise. Just enough time to get the "wow feels so european" vibe, spend some Euros, and get the fuck out.</p>

<h1>Overarching themes</h1>

<ul>
<li>Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Alexander II, Lenin and Gorbachev all embraced western ideas, and brought foreign influence to Russia and St. Pete.</li>
<li>But this spurred on a powerful countervailing force administered by rulers like Alexander I, Nicholas I, and Stalin that wanted Russia to look inwardly.</li>
<li>Even the western facing rulers avoided embracing political freedom and democracy. The trend continues to this day.</li>
<li>Great architecture, often built by foreign architects or under the auspices of some great Italian or French designs.</li>
<li>The Russians cribbed from the French. But the Germans cribbed from the Romans, and the Romans cribbed from the Greeks. </li>
</ul>

<blockquote>
  <p>That the Romans copied doesn't mean that history is nothing but copying, but it does mean that copying is an integral part of history. [...] The US too, like the Germans and the Romans, consciously wrote itself into the western tradition.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Great artists steal. 🎤👇</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism by Max Weber</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/the-protestant-ethic-and-the-spirit-of-capitalism-by-max-weber"/>
    
    <updated>2021-09-26T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
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        <p>Max Weber piqued my interest in an overview course in philosophy <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Modern_Political_Tradition_-_Hobbes_to_Habermas">The Modern Political Tradition - Hobbes to Habermas</a>. I took a note about Weber's ideas then:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Work is good in itself, a sign of higher character. Modernity is all about instrumental rationality: refining means to achieve ends. Modernity is polytheistic. Each context provides its own value. This leads to a permanent identity crisis. Weber’s options are: bear with it or return to an all encompassing religion. (Protestant capitalism)</p>
</blockquote>

<p>When GB suggested that Weber's translated works were readable, I decided to take the plunge. Weber is sometimes long winded. The last sections seem to go deep into narrow protestant sub-sects and associated thinkers. Zinzendorf, Herrnhut and the Pietists were just a bit too much for me. I found this section to be repetitive and overly detailed. But other times, the text was so dense and rich I actually had to slow the audio book narration to below real-time, which is a first for me. If you are tempted to skim, be sure to read the last chapters.</p>

<p>According to Weber, Protestants in general are characterized by a strong piety and a remarkable proficiency at their trade. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>[Striking] is the connection of a religious way of life with the most intensive development of business acumen among those sects whose otherworldliness is proverbial as their wealth</p>
</blockquote>

<p>When I think of a devoutly religious person, I think of them giving their whole life to god. My intuitive model is that of the Baal Shem Tov who spent every waking minute reading the Torah. Or a “athlete of god” who turns to extreme asceticism as a reaction to excesses of the established clergy.</p>

<p>Weber makes a sharp distinction: the Protestant work ethic is diametrically opposed to 1) joie de vivre and also to 2) aspirations for worldly progress. Instead, this work ethic is one tied to a deep faith. He cites Montesqieu, that the English have "progressed the farthest of all peoples of the world in three important things: in piety, in commerce, and in freedom." Weber's work focuses on the relationship between the first two.</p>

<h1>Satisfaction vs. acquisition</h1>

<p>Interesting distinction between:</p>

<ol>
<li>Satisfaction of needs and</li>
<li>Acquisition beyond those needs. </li>
</ol>

<p>Economic traditionalism is exemplified in (1). But capitalism is mostly (2), an acquisitive economy. </p>

<p>The acquisitive economy relies on money and wealth as a measure of how well you have done your job. </p>

<p>The idea of a calling irrational and is associated with Protestantism according to Weber. He will tease this out in chapter 3. </p>

<h1>The Calling: from monasticism to craftsmanship</h1>

<p>Luther said that the fulfillment of worldly activity is the best way to worship the lord. </p>

<p>In the early Catholic Church, the notion of a calling was often applied to a monastic lifestyle. Worldly duties were derided. The individual should stay in the station he was given at birth and glorify god.</p>

<p>Luther translated this notion into something much more worldly. Religious authority was not reduced, but the calling could force you to pursue a path divergent from the station provided at birth. </p>

<p>The emphasis thus shifted from an unending glorification of god to a creation of god-glorifying works, fruits of your craft. I think of J. S. Bach as an exemplar of this attitude. Even mom has said that at her best, her hands are moved by god's grace.</p>

<p>The emphasis on works reminds me of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Never_Let_Me_Go_by_Kazuo_Ishiguro">Never Let Me Go by Kazuo Ishiguro</a>, in which students' works are harvested in order to prove that clone-students are worthy of salvation.</p>

<p>Weber enumerates protestant denominations that contributed to this solid work ethic:</p>

<ul>
<li>Calvinism/Reformed (Presbyterians)</li>
<li>Pietism, a Calvinist-adjacent branch within Lutheranism. </li>
<li>Methodism, which split off from Anglicanism.</li>
<li>Sects from the Baptist movement.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Brief aside on protestant sects</h1>

<p>I've always found protestant denominations to be very confusing, and here's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestantism#/media/File:Protestant_branches.svg">a
diagram I found helpful</a>.</p>

<p>I also spent a couple of hours trying to understand a bit beyond what the book has to offer, and here are my findings:</p>

<ul>
<li>Not all branches of Protestantism stem from Luther directly. Some seem to be inspired by his disobedience, but don't inherit from Lutheranism directly.</li>
<li>Anglicanism was started by Henry VIII, a few decades after Luther (details of the story I will skip here). Puritans dissented against the Anglican church, demanding extreme divergence from Catholicism. </li>
<li>Methodists are a sort of Puritan revival, also splitting off from Anglicans. Their name comes from "method".</li>
<li>Weber refers to Moravians. These are followers of Jan Hus (mentioned in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Late_Middle_Ages">Late Middle Ages</a>, and predates Luther by sixty years (!)</li>
<li><p>Speaking of schisms, it's fascinating to watch two different strategies in the Christian world:</p>

<ol>
<li>Catholic schisms and re-unifications, all the while maintaining a unified organization.</li>
<li>Protestant forks and a branching hierarchy of denominations.</li>
</ol></li>
</ul>

<h1>Predestination and its implications</h1>

<p>The strongest formulation of Calvinist concept of double predestination was that before birth, all people were destined to either go to heaven or burn in hell, regardless of their deeds. And which bucket you fell into was unknown until your death. For Calvin, man is created for god, not god for man. His decrees thus don’t need to be pleasant in the slightest. For the damned to complain of their lot is the same as animals complaining that they were not born as men. For god to change his mind on the basis of some earthly human actions would diminish his power. Puritans share the same view of predestination as Calvinists.</p>

<p>For Luther, the doctrine of predestination was initially important, but faded over time. The Lutheran concept of predestination is "single predestination", meaning that some people are pre-destined for salvation, but nobody is pre-destined for damnation.</p>

<p>This was a huge difference between Catholicism and Calvinism/Puritanism: for the Puritans, no amount of sacrament or worship was going to get you into heaven. So they deliberately avoided doing any ritualized burial, as that was seen as superstition. From this stemmed a general aversion to anything sensuous and emotional in culture and religion. These are no use towards salvation, merely deluding people via idolatrous superstition. </p>

<p><strong>Against magic</strong>: For the Puritan, the Catholic tradition looked as if “the priest was a magician who performed the miracle of transubstantiation and held the key to eternal life in his hand”. As a result, they made their project to "eliminate magic as a means of absolution".</p>

<p><strong>Individualism</strong>: This doctrine forms the roots of a disillusioned individualism. Bunyan's "Pilgrim's Progress" is the most read Protestant book. The protagonist named Christian abandons his family to escape from the "City of Destruction" (this world), to the "Celestial City" (heaven). Once safe, he remembers that he should probably also bring his family too...</p>

<p><strong>Self-confidence</strong>: The elect and the damned do not differ in any way. This wasn’t a problem for Calvin, who felt himself obviously chosen. But for many others was not tenable, as everyone would wonder endlessly whether they are in a state of grace. The result is that all people must act with self confidence as if they are in a state of Grace, and avoid doubt at all cost. (The basis of high self confidence in the west?)</p>

<p><strong>Unbounded piety</strong>: In this view, Catholics live with “hand to mouth” piety. They try to be good but inevitably stray from the ideal, and then need to offset their misdeeds via confession or sacrament. In contrast, the Puritan would need to act as if they were in a state of grace, constantly are outdoing themselves in their piety. There is no upper bound on piety if you are truly one of the chosen. (Does this piety then translate into money in the modern age?).</p>

<p>(Is there predestination in Judaism?)</p>

<h1>Emphasis on works</h1>

<p>This more modern interpretation of the calling is intimately tied to producing great works. For Lutherans it wasn’t enough to do righteous works. They insisted on an emotional component. For them, the feeling of grace was needed to actually attain salvation (aka state of grace). For a Calvinist this was just empty emotion.</p>

<p>According to the Puritans, works are not the cause but only the proof of a state of grace, and only if the works are done for the glory of god alone. He who did not perform good works was not a true believer. The harshness of Calvinism continues to astound.</p>

<h1>Ben Franklin's post-religious take</h1>

<p>At first Weber appears to lambaste Ben Franklin for being overly pragmatic as he describes the “spirit of capitalism”, in a passage from his autobiography. Franklin's virtues are all merely a means to an end. In the end, if you are virtuous, you will have good standing with money lenders. This uncharitable take is very easy to mock, and has been done effectively by Ferdinand Kurnberger, who in "Picture of American Culture" describes Americans thus: "They make tallow out of cattle and money out of men."</p>

<p>But Weber gives Franklin a much more charitable interpretation. Franklin's response to “why should money be made from men?” comes from his strict Calvinist father: </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Seest thou a man diligent in his business? He shall stand before kings. — Proverbs 22:29</p>
</blockquote>

<p>On Weber's account, Franklin philosophy as written in his autobiography is not greed at all, but a direct continuation of puritan ideals. Franklin was a self avowed deist, far less religious than his pious Puritan predecessors. </p>

<h1>Three attitudes to wealth</h1>

<ol>
<li>Wealth for its own sake, because of the desire to be wealthy. (Greed)</li>
<li>Wealth for the sake of a carefree life. (Sloth)</li>
<li>Wealth as a side effect of following your calling. </li>
</ol>

<p>The Calvinist/Puritan tradition holds that (3) is acceptable, but the rest are sinful. If your calling happens to be entrepreneurship, then wealth of your company is basically the explicitly endorsed goal. </p>

<p>Another pious angle on accumulating wealth is one of eventually giving it away. This idea of "earning to give" is quite old. </p>

<h1>Modernity (well, circa 1905)</h1>

<p>And so Max Weber us forced into this mandatory system of a calling, works, originally set out as an optional path.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The Puritan wanted to work in a calling; we are forced to do so. For when asceticism was carried out of monastic cells into everyday life, and began to dominate worldly morality, it did its part in building the tremendous cosmos of the modern economic order. This order is now bound to the technical and economic conditions of machine production which to-day determine the lives of all the individuals who are born into this mechanism, not only those directly concerned with economic acquisition, with irresitible force. Perhaps it will so determine them until the last ton of fossilized coal is burnt. In Baxter’s view the care for external goods should only lie on the shoulders of the “saint like a light cloak, which can be thrown aside at any moment.” But fate decreed that the cloak should become an iron cage.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Weber ends with a meta point. Modern man consistently underestimates the importance of religious influences in shaping modernity.</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>ABC by Illich and Sanders</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/abc-by-illich-and-sanders"/>
    
    <updated>2021-09-15T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/abc-by-illich-and-sanders</id>
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        <p>The Alphabetization of the Popular Mind is an interesting deep dive into the way
that consciousness evolved throughout history, especially as a result of
literacy. I guess this is the Illich version of Orality and Literacy (which I
have not yet read). </p>

<p>In general, the book is overly declamatory, often feels like a sermon. Parts of it are more literary critique, especially where Illich/Sanders delves into specific literary works (Chaucer's Canterbury, Defoe's Journal, Twain's Huck Finn) and tries to make sweeping generalizations based on their novels. Arguments rely mostly on wordplay and clever assertions, but are often unconvincing.</p>

<p>Sections correspond to chapters in the book that I thought were vaguely interesting:</p>

<h1>Text</h1>

<p>The spread of writing turned society upside down in almost every domain. But the authors consider the subtler side. Everything we know about that society is conveyed to us through writing, including everything we know of the oral tradition of the time, leading to a paradox of “oral writing”. </p>

<p>With literacy, trust shifted from a spoken promise in the form of an oath, to a sealed document. Oaths were a conditional curse: let me be maimed if I break this promise. Formerly formulaic speeches like the Danes “by the ships side and the shields rim, by the swords edge and the horses thigh”, ritualized by raising weapon skyward and placing a foot on a stone. Instead of oaths, literacy led to a more legal and binding form of promise. It’s no surprise that we now use the book in the “pantomime of legal gesture”. </p>

<p>Authors points to a rapid increase in writing in the 13th century based on consumption of parchment and sealing wax. According to some records (uncited?), the numbers were 3 pounds a week in 1226, 13 in 1256, 31 in 1266. Similarly, the authors point to the number of recorded royal decrees  1080-1180: 3 to 60 for French kings, 25 to 115 for the English, 22 to 180 for popes. After that it’s exponential. From Pope Innocent III ending in 1215, 280 survive, Innocent IV ending in 1254, 730 survive, Boniface VIII ending in 1303, 50000.</p>

<p>Wills also became determined not by last words on the deathbed or a symbol imbued with meaning but by a sealed document. This transition happened in 12th century when symbols began to be engraved with explicit writings. </p>

<p>Written documents also enabled trust to be formalized. The issuer would create two copies: one for themselves and one for the recipient. Technical details around this included the seal, a signature, a date, creating a copy and storing it in a catalog, which is part of a register. </p>

<p>High Middle Age monks simply remembered where things were without a system. Earliest known scrutinium (monastic catalogs) were introduced in 1170. This is also the advent of libraries. </p>

<p>Writing enabled exact copying of materials, which became desirable. In 1283 Cambridge hired its first corrector whose job was to check documents according to form, legibility, word order, and spelling. Documents being identical became a criteria for legal validity. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Two hundred years before Gutenberg, archives gave rise to the intellectual prototype of printer matter: an original from which a number of identical copies had been produced and written. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Even people required “identification” (written credentials that are identical to your person). No wonder the domesday book doesn't include a list of people — there was probably no accounting of individuals at all at the time.</p>

<p>Around this time a written chronicle of time emerged too, an essential piece of cataloging many charters. Notaries would travel around and witness and date major transactions around them, from the birth of the Lord. This gave a new dimension to text: time. Documents could be ordered by recency. Time in general grows in importance as a result. In the dance of death genre, the hourglass is prominently displayed. Time is scarce. </p>

<p>In the 12th century, news needed to be proclaimed orally (by a herald, “heard”) for it to be official. The written copy (if any) was just a record of the oral delivery. A signet ring served as seal and was accompanied with arbitrary and ever changing signature. But then as courts became more concerned with authenticity, this practice changed into the 14th century and onwards. The author also writes that vellum (calf) was replaced with membranum (sheep) supposedly thinner, harder to erase and prevented forgeries. (This is surprising since I think vellum was more sought after). Slowly text became the medium of guarantee. </p>

<p>This is reflected in art: The Last Judgement involves the Archangel Michael depicted with a book in which the text of ones life is recorded and decisions made. </p>

<p>Early “writing” did not involve clutching a pen and drawing letters on parchment, but dictating to a scribe. So initially there was a gulf between writer and author. Wax tablets also played some role in writing, mostly for temporary note taking. (Interesting that this hasn't really been a focus in other works I've read on this topic.)</p>

<p>Words were initially not separated at all, but spaces between became common around the 7th century (confirm with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Carolingian_minuscule">Carolingian minuscule</a>), in order to teach Latin to the barbarians as a foreign language. </p>

<p>Previously writing was arduous, inscribed with a knife on hard leather. New script emerged in the 13th century. This more circular cursive writing was easier to write using a quill on a smooth surface, on parchment or paper. By the 13th century scholars like Thomas Aquinas were writing on their own without the need for scribes, and drafts are preserved. </p>

<p>Later scholars had access to much smaller books which were portable and used as a reference enabling direct quotation from sources. But so far all quotations had to be made verbatim, since books were not structured in any way until 12th century. </p>

<p>Also see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Reading_and_writing_transition_in_the_12th_century">Reading and writing transition in the 12th century</a>.</p>

<p>In addition to structured catalogs and libraries, books themselves became structured. Chapters and verses became the somewhat arbitrary superstructure placed after the fact over top the Old Testament only in 1200 (!). </p>

<p>Previously text and images were deeply interwoven. The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtQAsvUiwPg">Book of Kells</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindisfarne_Gospels">Lindisfarne Gospels</a> provide two such examples. Now a monolithic text heavy manuscript was gaining shape, with structure and chapters and quotes separated visually from the rest of the content. </p>

<p>Another major change was that rather than always reading aloud, reading became a mostly silent pursuit. </p>

<h1>Self</h1>

<p>I enjoyed the Text chapter of this book, so decided to read on. The section on self is basically a great takedown of autobiographies. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Autobiography is born out of hubris. In Franklin's case his autobiography grows out of the hubris of America’s emerging power - its myths and ideals - a power that actually thrives on mistakes. One merely seized upon them as Franklin makes clear and turns them into substantial financial success. Autobiography amplifies that power: since a person is literally creating a new being, he can smooth out the rough transitions in his life, clean up the mistakes to produce a polished and attractive literary self. </p>
</blockquote>

<blockquote>
  <p>A chief obstacle to writing a modern autobiography is its ending. How can it end, really, reach its final conclusion, until the writer is dead?</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Malcolm X's autobiography is published posthumously. Maybe that's the ticket?</p>

<h1>Untruth and narration</h1>

<p>Love the Latin expression “ex suo digito suxit” - высосано из пальца - sucked out of ones finger. Finger and fiction are apparently connected through this? But I haven't been able to verify.</p>

<p>St Augustine defined every lie as an assault on the God given truth. A contempt of God. Fascinatingly this precludes fiction in the traditional sense of being fully invented. Epic bards retell old stories that really happened, not fictions. Storytellers too, are not inventing but retelling. Chaucer (1386) is supposedly the first English author to spin a tale. But he does this not explicitly, couching heavily. </p>

<p>Chaucer writes just as England is moving from a culture of orality to literacy. And finds himself in an awkward position between fact and fiction. He needs to have Canterbury story taken as truth “for this is the way readers come to enter into any fictional dream” and goes to great lengths to do this. He makes himself one of the pilgrims, and tells a story “Tale of Sir Thopas” which is so boring that the fictional hosts ask him to stop. But apparently “too much truth can get Chaucer into theological trouble”. Why???</p>

<p>Defoe writes a book entitled "Journal of the Plague Year" which is a semi-fictional journal of a man living in London in 1665, the last major plague outbreak. Authors claim that this is the first novel, but this is completely ludicrous. In fact Robinson Crusoe came before this Journal, which immediately nullifies many of the claims made. There are <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_claimed_first_novels_in_English">many other candidates</a> for first novel too. Anyway, the authors really focus on the word “novel” and how it is closely related to “news” and shares the Latin root “novus”, new. Who cares?</p>

<p>By this point it is clear that this chapter has evolved into speculative literary criticism with very tenuous arguments based on word games. The end is especially cringeworthy, with a vast narrative being cobbled together on the basis of the three works encountered. It’s very shaky and very ideological and not convincing at all. A little reminiscent of Deschooling, but worse.</p>

<h1>Newspeak and UNIQUACK</h1>

<p>Speculative literary criticism continues into the 20th century, this time with Orwell's 1984. Fascinating pointers, but not much substance. </p>

<p>Basic English was a subset of English (less than 1000 words) popular in the 1950s as a universal language designed to increase international collaboration. Apparently Orwell was into it initially, then worked for the institute promulgating it and realized this was a terrible idea.</p>

<p>The authors declare that words like energy, sexuality, transportation, education, communication, information, crisis, problem, solution, are too vague, and “amoeba-words”. I don't understand why. Many of these have precise meaning depending on context. Maybe the authors felt that people don’t generally know these precise meanings and misuse them?</p>

<h1>Silence</h1>

<p>Authors introduce an idea of “alphabetic silence”: pauses between words, silent contemplation of text, meditative thought. </p>

<p>I enjoyed the interpretation of the Ten Commandments. What did the Israelites hear when they received the ten commandments? A few theories:</p>

<ol>
<li>They heard them all in the Divine Voice</li>
<li>They heard only the first two: “I am the lord thy God”, and “thou shalt have no other gods before me”, before being overwhelmed. The rest had to be received through Moses. </li>
<li>They heard only aleph (א), with which the first commandment begins, the first letter of anochi (אנוכי), and silent without a patach, merely commanding the mouth to open. “Rabbi Mendel Torum transforms the revelation on Mount Sinai into a mystical revelation, pregnant with infinite meaning, but devoid of any specific one.”</li>
</ol>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>File Systems for Thought</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/file-systems-for-thought"/>
    
    <updated>2021-09-08T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/file-systems-for-thought</id>
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        <p>Tools for Thought are all the rage these days. Unfortunately, most of these tools assume one corpus per tool, and the interoperability story is <a href="https://subconscious.substack.com/p/composability-with-other-tools">very poor</a>. At the same time, it's pretty clear to me that no single app can serve as my <a href="https://thesephist.com/posts/browser/">second brain</a>. What I need instead is a <a href="https://speakerdeck.com/adewale/tools-for-thought-from-the-memex-to-index-cards?slide=13">System for Thought</a> that supports many different tools working seamlessly together.</p>

<p>The solution I have arrived at is a cloud-synchronized directory of plaintext <a href="https://jenson.org/files">files</a> and images. Here's a visual summary of what's going on in my system for thought today:</p>

<p><img src="/file-systems-for-thought/fs-for-thought.jpg" alt="File Systems for Thought 2021" /></p>

<p>This system has two key advantages: </p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Tool choice</strong>: I can choose my favorite among multiple existing tools</li>
<li><strong>Hackability</strong>: I can build my own tools to support specific needs</li>
</ol>

<!--more-->

<h1>Advantages: tool choice &amp; hackability</h1>

<p>One advantage of this approach is that I can pick and choose which editors to use across multiple platforms. On desktop, I tend to the corpus using Obsidian. On mobile, even though Obsidian recently launched an iOS app, I prefer to continue using iA Writer. Additionally, I can quickly jot notes using a Siri shortcut from an iPhone.</p>

<p>Another advantage is that as a programmer, I have full control to build solutions that work well for my needs. I've built my own scripts to synchronize reading highlights from Instapaper. I have multiple tools do automatically scheduled cleanup tasks, auto-deploy a subset of my corpus to the web. Below, I'll describe these components in more detail.</p>

<h1>Note corpus storage</h1>

<p>My notes are stored in a directory of plaintext markdown files. These are also interlinked with Wiki-style markup. They are currently synchronized to iCloud Drive to make interoperability with iOS easier, while still allowing the notes to be accessed across multiple devices.</p>

<p>In theory, I aim for terse, evergreen notes that use the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/BLUF_TLDR_note_taking_style">BLUF TLDR note taking style</a>. But in practice, I keep many kinds of notes in the same corpus, and rely extensively on title- and full-text search.</p>

<h2>Small ideas</h2>

<p>I use my note corpus for a lot of unimportant, practical things pretty far from any sort of intellectual pursuit. These include: </p>

<ul>
<li>temporary shopping lists</li>
<li>household notes, like car repair and nanny payments</li>
<li>notes from conversations with people (stored in <code>Meeting notes/</code>)</li>
<li>daily notes (stored in <code>Inbox/</code>)</li>
<li>longer term TODO lists like <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/WORK_NEXT">WORK NEXT</a></li>
<li>notes for new project ideas</li>
<li>running notes for ongoing projects, like <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/eFoil_project_notes">eFoil project notes</a></li>
</ul>

<h2>Bigger ideas</h2>

<p>I like to read actively and synthesize what I read to try to create a deeper understanding. Some of these notes are half-formed ideas at best, others are taken in a hurry when I am away from a computer. Others aspire to <a href="https://notes.andymatuschak.org/Evergreen_notes">evergreen status</a>. </p>

<p>Anyway, let me describe more of the system in three steps:</p>

<ol>
<li>Inputs: How do notes begin?</li>
<li>Synthesis: How are notes refined and intertwingled?</li>
<li>Output: What do notes turn into?</li>
</ol>

<h1>1. Inputs: how do notes begin?</h1>

<h2>On a computer</h2>

<p>On Desktop, I tend to have some time and can create a new note start-to-finish. I typically do this with Obsidian, which affords a nice editor and native support for traversal of wiki-style links.</p>

<p>I take meeting notes using Obsidian and store them separately (in <code>Meeting notes/</code>), and make random daily notes which get stored in a daily file such as <code>Inbox/2021-09-08.md</code>.</p>

<h2>On a mobile phone</h2>

<p>iA Writer supports iCloud Drive well and supports fast indexed, full-text search. Although it doesn't understand wiki-style links, it's a great way of quickly looking up a note, or appending to a specific list. For example, I'll often add a new word to my <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Words_I_didn’t_know_well">Words I didn’t know well</a> when I encounter it for the first time.</p>

<h2>On the go</h2>

<p>Inspiration strikes at the most inconvenient times, often when I'm walking somewhere in nature. On iOS, I use a Siri Shortcut that I built to quickly dictate or type a semi-formed idea that may emerge on the go. Two slightly different shortcuts support both typing and dictation, and the result of either is to append the note text to the daily note (<code>Inbox/2021-09-08.md</code>). The <a href="https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT211781">Back Tap accessibility gesture</a> is quite a handy way of triggering this shortcut.</p>

<p>Siri Shortcuts are a bit more awkward on the Apple Watch, since it takes a surprising amount tapping to invoke. I've also attempted to take notes completely hands free using AirPods by saying "hey siri note" which invokes my awesome shortcut. However this is quite frustrating in practice. Dictating notes, I often take a short pause to gather my thoughts, which triggers the silence detector in this dictation mode, and truncates my input. I'd love to be able to explicitly to trigger the end of dictation while hands free. My preferred solution would be a "safe word". Hufflepuff!</p>

<h2>Reading articles</h2>

<p>My current article reading workflow is to funnel everything into Instapaper. I filter articles from friends, private groups on Discord, twitter, and general web browsing. If from a quick skim the article seems worthwhile, I'll cue up in Instapaper to calmly read at a later point.</p>

<p>I aspire to read actively, making heavy use of Instapaper's annotation features. These are synced up with <a href="https://readwise.io">https://readwise.io</a>. From there, a <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Readwise_to_markdown_script">Readwise to markdown script</a> runs daily, importing annotations into my note collection for easy referencing.</p>

<h2>While reading/listening to books</h2>

<p>Books feel more wholesome than articles, and afford me the luxury of delving more deeply into an area. Part of it is just that I can spend more time thinking about a single thing. This is both intrinsically pleasing, and can hopefully yield a more insightful synthesis. I typically keep a note for each book review, and append to it roughly while reading or listening to a book.</p>

<h1>2. Synthesis: how are notes refined?</h1>

<p>By synthesis I mean the collision of multiple concepts inside my note corpus into a new idea or insight. This process occurs naturally as I write and am reminded of something I have previously written. This is an iterative process, often done in multiple sittings. It resembles having a conversation with my past self, as ideas are clarified, integrated, and interlinked. </p>

<p>This is the core loop of note taking, and I'm still learning this skill. Most of what I know is from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/How_to_Take_Smart_Notes_by_Sonke_Ahrens">How to Take Smart Notes by Sonke Ahrens</a>.</p>

<p>Tools can also catalyze synthesis. For example, in Obsidian, when typing a new internal link using the double bracket syntax, you are presented with a list of suggested notes based on title. This can sometimes remind me that I have another note that is relevant. Perhaps it should be linked, transcluded, or merged into this one. Notational Velocity was guite good at this, and Obsidian could do much more on this front.</p>

<p>Synthesis also happens when I triage rough daily notes taken on the go, and review highlights from articles. Reading through these half formed thoughts, I sometimes create a new note, or find an old note and append an elaboration.</p>

<p>I've also been experimenting with large language models for synthesis. Specifically, what happens if we take two randomly chosen notes, and then collide them using GPT3? I have a script that technically works but does not produce especially compelling results yet. Stay tuned.</p>

<h1>3. Outputs: what do notes turn into?</h1>

<h2>Manual book reviews</h2>

<p>Once I finish reading a book, I read through the notes I took, organize them lightly, and cross-link to existing notes. Then I store the completed book note in the <code>Book notes/</code> directory, and post it manually on smus.com/books.</p>

<h2>Automatic publishing</h2>

<p>I've started designating some notes as public by placing them in the <code>Public/</code> directory. A daily cron script automatically posts these notes to my new public note host, <a href="https://z3.ca">z3.ca</a>. </p>

<h2>Integration with spaced repetition</h2>

<p>I've made several attempts at trying to use spaced repetition for self-improvement purposes, and many have failed. However, one thing I'm still keen on is to use spaced repetition for improving my English vocabulary. I keep a list of new words I've encountered in a special note, and have tried using some spaced repetition apps to try to cram these. So far the habit has not stuck.</p>

<hr />

<p>I'm excited to see a rennaisance in the Tools for Thought space. Hopefully new
entrants embrace a more interoperable approach, while still building sustainable
businesses. But for now, I have kludged together various pieces that together
feel more like a coherent System for Thought, address my specific needs, and
allow for interesting experiments in the future.</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Never Let Me Go by Kazuo Ishiguro</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/never-let-me-go-by-kazuo-ishiguro"/>
    
    <updated>2021-08-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/never-let-me-go-by-kazuo-ishiguro</id>
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        <p>I really liked it. Author does a great job conveying little nuances of relationships. I feel similarly about past life and previous relationships that could have gone so differently. </p>

<p>At any rate it’s great writing and vivid character development. The love triangle is extremely strong. But the world building is pretty weak. How can the world of the "students" and the world of the rest of the population be so hermetic? They have full freedom to go anywhere, yet there is no interaction. On this topic, I find myself actively suspending disbelief.</p>

<p>As a teacher, I guess there are three possible scenarios:</p>

<ol>
<li>Hide the truth from clones, raise them like wolves, harvest their organs. (Ground truth universe)</li>
<li>Hide the truth from clone-students, give them a decent human childhood, harvest their organs. (Hailsham's approach)</li>
<li>Tell students the whole story which would deprive them of their childhood, but give them a chance to potentially empower them to change the system somehow. (Lucy's approach)</li>
</ol>

<p>I kept waiting for Tommy to attempt to change the system during his fourth donation. Ishiguro does some nice false foreshadowing, and when Tommy caves without a fight, the effect is one of resignation.</p>

<p>Systemic change is hard to achieve.</p>

<p>Everyone is born into some station and feels like they must do what it is they are born to do, rarely questioning or acting on their impulses. Tommy's river analogy comes to mind. People drift down this river of least resistance without much agency. If you were born as a student-clone, what would you do? Very likely, live the life allotted to you, in the best case that of a Hailsham student.</p>

<h1>We are in Hailsham</h1>

<p>The fact that the students can't have children of their own is the tragic part of this whole piece. In their lives, as in ours, death is guaranteed. In theirs, it becomes inevitable after the fourth donation, in ours after age 80 or 90. But the finality of death without children is such that all is lost. This is not really a well-developed theme in the book, more of a background take. Kathy makes it explicitly through the song.</p>

<p>I thought that Kazuo Ishiguro invented "Never Let Me Go" the song, and but it turns out that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UX6tzE7P44">the song is real</a>, the cover is real, and Judy Bridgewater is real. Honestly, this is disappointing. Previously, I wrote:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Nice use of the invented song, and vividly described. It serves as a really touching tearjerker.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>I found the ending to be a little bit drawn out. For example I thought that the book would end at the scene where Tommy and Kathy go and talk to Madame. A lot of the stuff after that was a little bit less clear and might have just been possible to cut.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Gardener &amp; Carpenter by Alison Gopnik</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/gardener-carpenter-by-alison-gopnik"/>
    
    <updated>2021-08-25T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/gardener-carpenter-by-alison-gopnik</id>
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        <p>This one's been on my radar for years. I've read a lot of the author's articles and generally feel a strong affinity for Isaiah Berlin, whom Gopnik has done quite a bit to popularize. Self described as a Bubbie from Berkeley with a PhD in developmental neuroscience that sometimes dabbles in philosophy. </p>

<h1>Core idea</h1>

<p>The message promulgated in most parenting books is that raising kids is like carpentry: consider what material your dealing with, form a well specified blueprint, measure twice, cut once. Then you can judge how well you’ve done by the final result. </p>

<p>A parent’s goal should instead be to raise their child like resilient garden that can adapt to a dynamic world. Such a garden or maybe even wild meadow evolves and adapts to circumstances. This is in contrast to a much more static approach of growing hot house tomatoes. The hot house is highly regulated and creates ideal circumstances for the tomato to grow. But these ideal circumstances are not reflective of the real world. Hot house tomato’s are not resilient. </p>

<p>Reminds me a bit of legibility and <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Seeing_Like_a_State_by_James_Scott">Seeing Like a State by James Scott</a> but applied to children. Authoritarian High modern failure mode in kids is one that tries to carpenter too much. I have examples of this in distant friends: MA rebelled against becoming a doctor, IN rebelled against becoming a software engineer. Both results were disappointing to their parents. Better to not be so prescriptive.</p>

<p>(Does this idea of parent-gardener break down if you consider a very large garden? I guess if garden is large enough you end up with parent-industrial farmer. Is that what school is then?)</p>

<h1>Against parentING</h1>

<p>I appreciated the more philosophical bent, especially as compared to other parenting books. But the narrative sometimes bent towards a pedantic but still an insightful critique of “parenting” especially as a goal driven activity. You don’t go around “friending” people, offspring are never “childing” you and your spouse is not usually “wifing” you. Gerunds have their place though. </p>

<p>Other relationships offer an interesting parallel: you don’t think you are a successful friend if they have become successful. Nor do you become a successful husband by profoundly improving your wife.</p>

<p>Many observations framed as paradoxes. Sounds more like tensions to me. Tensions between:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Formal education and play</strong>, which itself leads to education but in roundabout illegible ways. (Makes me think of my work and when I’m happiest. It’s when I’m playing. Building toys. Playing to learn. </li>
<li><strong>Explore vs exploit</strong>. Since childhood kids want to be independent but also seek out the comfort of their parents. The same is true over a lifecycle, going from profound dependence to the opposite extreme. Similar tensions around Tradition and innovation. More on this in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Explore_vs_exploit_trade-offs">Explore vs exploit trade-offs</a>.</li>
</ul>

<p>Fundamentally, <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Open-endedness_is_required_to_solve_ambitious_problems">Open-endedness is required to solve ambitious problems</a>. Play and childhood are optimized for this.</p>

<h1>Recent changes parents and society</h1>

<p>Historically, humans live grown in large, multigenerational families. Most have the opportunity to help raise siblings Or cousins before becoming parents. Once parents, their kids are raised in large party but extended family. </p>

<p>Families growing smaller. More mobility. Having kids later in line after more education. Many new parents don’t have any expertise with kids at all. </p>

<p>“Parenting” builds on this gap in knowledge and caregivers. It’s profits from the expectation of educated people that things are learned through books. </p>

<h1>Analogy to dieting</h1>

<p>Referencing Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan. What was formerly a traditional way of being, like cooking meals from a certain cuisine, was replaced by a sort of science-inspired explosion of dieting advice. The more we deliberately cook and eat to become healthy, the less healthy we become.</p>

<p>The more we raise children to make them happy and successful adults the less happy and successful they become. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Trying_not_to_try">Trying not to try</a></p>

<p>The sheer quantity of parenting and dieting books itself is just an indication that none of them work. If one did, they’d all be out of business. This critique reminds me of the one in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Two_Watersheds_-_too_much_institutionalization">Two Watersheds - too much institutionalization</a>. </p>

<h1>Generational compounding</h1>

<p>If a child is slightly better at using a tool, this advantage is slightly conferred to their offspring. And the effect compounds. Children's brains are the largest of all animals and our childhoods are the longest. Largely this is to have more time to develop and grow a brain, which is extremely plastic so that it can adapt maximally to its cultural milieu. </p>

<p>Birds are categorized as either precocial or altricial, depending on their capabilities at birth.</p>

<ol>
<li><strong>Precocious birds</strong> are capable of moving around on its own soon after hatching. They develop early and are pretty dumb. Examples: chickens, geese, and turkeys.</li>
<li><strong>Altricial birds</strong> are basically useless at birth. They hatch with eyes closed, fully depend on the parent, and cannot even leave the nest on their own. Examples: crows, herons, owls, and woodpeckers.</li>
</ol>

<blockquote>
  <p>“Our minds can change rapidly… in just a few generations!”</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Evolution: why do women live past menopause?</h1>

<p>Most mammals die before they reach menopause.</p>

<p>Gopnik, a grandma herself, produces a strong argument in defense of grandmas. Post-menopausal grandmothers are evolutionarily advantageous because they allow their children to have more offspring despite the high maintenance and long childhood of each grandchild. By providing more childcare, the grandmother helps scale her genetic impact.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>We don’t care about children because we love them. We love them because we care for them. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>It's a reinforcing feedback loop.</p>

<p>I'm intrigued by this idea of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Catholic_Age_of_Reason_is_7">Catholic Age of Reason is 7</a>. Clearly the long childhood has become much longer in recent generations.</p>

<h1>Maybe against evo psych?</h1>

<p>Gopnik presents a convincing critique of evolutionary psychology. So much of being a human is embedded in our culture that it’s unclear that insights from the Pleistocene are applicable without lots of caveats. She also draws on the vast variety of behaviors exhibited by other primates. Gorillas are very aggressive and organize in harems, bonobos are very promiscuous and enjoy free love.</p>

<p>But then almost in the same breath, she proceeds to refer to a lot of evolutionary psychological studies, such as an interesting explanation of why post-menopausal women make sense from an evolutionary perspective.</p>

<h1>In favor of apprenticeships</h1>

<p>More evo-psych studies in which Gopnik makes an ultimate argument against schooling and in favor of the traditional master-apprentice model. There's a bunch of social psychology studies and half of them sound a little bit dubious. It's also often unclear how they relate to the thesis the book.</p>

<p>Young children naturally imitate adults, under certain conditions: that the adult seems to be confident, that they have a good track record of success, that the adult is not a robot, etc.</p>

<p>Kids also over-imitate, which is to say they will repeat additional actions of the adult even if they appear to be superfluous. Does this natural inclination of over-imitation explain rites that carry over almost verbatim l'dor v'dor? TRADITION!!</p>

<p>And so, argues Gopnik, imitation based learning is a super good foundation for the master-apprentice model. Lots of critiques of school a la <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Deschooling_Society_by_Ivan_Illich">Deschooling Society by Ivan Illich</a>. There's also the historical argument, that the master-apprentice model is how people have learned for a long time.</p>

<p>Grad students are often professor apprentices, learning to write and getting critiqued.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>“For most of our history, children have started their internships at age 7, not 27”</p>
</blockquote>

<h2>Good argumentation techniques</h2>

<p>Gopnik describes a thought experiment in which baseball is taught as if it were part of the core school curriculum. Students would begin with history of the game, introduction to running, then dive deeply into ball and bat construction, and those that get accepted into a Masters in Baseball might get to play some softball in the last few months of their degree.</p>

<p>Great (apocryphal) story about the master swordsman who forced his pupil to cook his food. But would show up randomly in the kitchen and smack his apprentice with a wooden sword. After three years of this the apprentice became always vigilant. Full legend is <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Taste_of_Banzo's_Sword">The Taste of Banzo's Sword</a></p>

<p>Effective passage on "the device", which is reads like a Tristan Harris-style attack on smartphones, social media, or insert<em>bogeyman</em>here. She then reveals that it's actually about books, which were similar criticized by Socrates. This is a good reminder about generational conservatism, and made me feel more inclined to pursue far future technology with questionable social implications.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The day before you were born always looks like Eden, and the day after your children were born always looks like Mad Max.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Play is fundamental</h1>

<p>Interesting that children seem to seek out evidence that contradicts their theories as part of play. </p>

<p>Play must be spontaneous. The <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Ms._Havisham_Problem_illustrates_that_play_must_be_spontaneous">Ms. Havisham Problem illustrates that play must be spontaneous</a> is a good framing of why, citing Dickens' book where a disgruntled old lady asks a child to play for her entertainment. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>"I am tired," said Miss Havisham. "I want diversion, and I have done with men and women. Play." I think it will be conceded by my most disputatious reader, that she could hardly have directed an unfortunate boy to do anything in the wide world more difficult to be done under the circumstances.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Play must be spontaneous and is demonstrably more effective than teaching in some cases. Gopnik cites a study where children were either 1) shown how a multifunctional toy works, or 2) allowed to discover the functionality for themselves. Children shown how to play with a toy did not tend to discover other novel ways of playing with it while those that were allowed to explore ended up discovering more functionality. (Surely this depends on how much functionality was demonstrated in 1).</p>

<p>(Gopnik does not explicitly say this but I really like the idea that <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Play_is_deliberate_practice_for_wicked_problems">Play is deliberate practice for wicked problems</a>)</p>

<h2>Why is play fun?</h2>

<p>Why is sex fun? Evolution made sex fun so that people and animals would do it and propagate our genes.</p>

<p>Why is play fun? Evolution made play fun so that people and animals would learn how to world works experientially. (All of this flies in the face of the earlier critique of evopsych?)</p>

<h1>A grab bag of ideas</h1>

<p>The books flows reasonably well, but some pieces feel more like a side show than a coherent part of the gardener vs carpenter thesis.</p>

<p>Gopnik makes a bunch of observations like this:</p>

<ul>
<li>A study shows correlation between standardized testing and ADHD diagnosis. I guess this is vaguely a result of excessive carpentry?</li>
<li>Puberty apparently happens at a younger age today than historically? Super weird hypotheses, including Artificial light and Sedentary lifestyle.</li>
<li>Points to increases in absolute intelligence over time (IQ scores are set so that 100 is the average). This is the Flynn effect. Gopnik speculates that increasing IQ is in tension with finely honed and focused expertise.</li>
</ul>

<h1>My critique: consider ergodicity</h1>

<p>Most gardens have hundreds of plants growing in them. But your average kinder garden only has 2.5 kinders, and every parent wants to do everything in their power to help them thrive. Even in a garden with hundreds of plants, it's hard to really understand what works and what doesn't. With an N of O(1), you certainly don't want to experiment and risk failure. So people take the safe path, another example of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Cover_Your_Ass">Cover Your Ass</a>.</p>

<p>This is my fundamental criticism of the Gardener model of parenting. In other words, I am identifying the core challenge to the parent. If Gopnik is indeed right, and the gardener model is the one to adopt, it is difficult for ambitious parents to do this in practice, because they are so invested in their child's future and be subject to competitive parenting, etc.</p>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Late Middle Ages</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/late-middle-ages"/>
    
    <updated>2021-07-25T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/late-middle-ages</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>An excellent ending to a worthwhile trilogy on Medieval History. Also see <a href="/books/early-middle-ages">Early
Middle Ages</a> and <a href="/books/high-middle-ages">High Middle
Ages</a>.</p>

<h1>Franks and Popes</h1>

<p>The papacy was not doing so hot in the late middle ages. Cardinals routinely failed to agree in the next pope. In one incident, a famous hermit criticized them harshly for being so petty and squabbling. In response the cardinals decided to appoint him as pope Celestine V. He held the position reluctantly and then decreed in a papal bull that popes can resign, and promptly did so. His power hungry successor Boniface VIII imprisoned him to prevent his potential return, and Celestine V died in prison.</p>

<p>Phillip the Fair (Phillip IV), king of France around the 13th century, had a falling out with the pope reminiscent of the Teutonic rulers of prior centuries. The difference here is rather than succumbing to papal power he thwarted it successfully so that future popes knew not to mess with French kings. After threatening to excommunicate Philip IV and issuing a papal bull suggesting explicitly that popes trumped kings, Philip IV's royal troops captured Pope Boniface VIII, imprisoned him, beat him badly. The Boniface VIII died a month later and his successor Clement V was pressured to move the papacy to France.</p>

<p>Crusaders that remained in the holy lands after the crusades formed Crusader States. One such order, The Knights Templar defended Christian Jerusalem from Arab reconquest. They were monk-knights who helped other crusaders. The Knights Templar grew rich from donations from Christians who wanted to keep the holy city in their grasp. They grew unpopular after losing Jerusalem to Saladin and amassing great wealth. </p>

<p>Phil IV decided to pursue the Templar order, prosecution was also likely a money grab. He also expelled the Jews and annexed their property. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Expelling_Jews_is_historically_a_great_way_for_kings_to_get_rich_quick">Expelling Jews is historically a great way for kings to get rich quick</a>. The pope initially condemned the mass Templar arrest but then when they confessed under torture, the pope called for other European kings to also arrest their Templars under papal authority. Papal palaces we’re built in Avignon. Subsequent popes were selected from the population of southern France. </p>

<h2>Papal Schism</h2>

<p>Meanwhile, pressure mounted for the Papacy to return to Rome. Popes were the spiritual successors of St. Paul, bishop of Rome. If they weren't in Rome that legacy was undermined. Urban VI was then selected under pressure from Roman citizens who rioted in demand of an Italian pope. The cardinals presented the masses with a pope of Italian origin but years later the French cardinals reneged and appointed another pope, Clement VII. He ruled in Avignon. As a result, there were two active popes at this time, and this period is referred to as the Western Schism aka Papal Schism (not to be confused with the East-West Schism aka Great Schism). </p>

<p>France and it’s allies like Scotland were generally in favor of the pope in Avignon. But sometimes there was a split in a single city and there were two bishops, each loyal to the French and Italian pope respectively. </p>

<p>It was thought that once one of the popes died, the population would support the other and the schism would end. But when urban VI died, his followers appointed another successor in Rome. And then when Clement VII died, his followers appointed a new pope in Avignon. </p>

<h2>Conciliarism reform movement</h2>

<p>In response to this shitshow, the Conciliarism reform movement began. A high level church councils composed of bishops and other Catholic leaders met and passed judgement apart from, or potentially against, the pope. The council of Pisa in 1408 was organized by a few breakout bishops from both French and Italian sides. They hoped to appoint a new pope and depose the two existing ones. The appointed pope died a year later and was replaced by John XXIII, who was odious and widely hated. So now there were three popes.</p>

<p>The council at Constance succeeded in deposing John 23 for moral reasons. The pope in Rome was also convinced to step down. The council finally deposed the pope in France. The papal schism finally ended in 1407 when the Cardinals elected Martin V. </p>

<p>What followed was a disagreement between those in favor of church councils and those in favor of the old system. Subsequent councils were not well attended, little reason to do so since the schism had ended. Still council at Basel imposed a bunch of limitations on the church. They made a limit of 24 cardinals, no more than 8 from each country, and constrained the amount of money the papacy could collect from local churches.</p>

<p>(My synthesis of this is that overall, these turbulent times paved the way for the protestant reformation.)</p>

<h1>Hundred Years War</h1>

<p>The hundred year war was a long conflict, not a constant total war, but a series of skirmishes. Britain decisively won the important battles early on. (Lots of overlap with <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Story_of_Medieval_England">The Story of Medieval England</a>). Joan of Arc had a decisive part to play, just when France was all but defeated and almost entirely under British control managed to incite a last ditch effort to reconquer. </p>

<p>One of the most violent years during the war was one in which there was no fighting between sides after the treaty of Brétigny in 1360. Mercenary armies hired by the warring kings began indiscriminately pillage for want of supplies. The result was chaos, death, and destruction. To remedy this failure mode, salaried standing armies were introduced around 1450. This was expensive but cheaper than the alternative. It also greatly strengthened royal power compared to that of the nobles since now the crown could rely more on a paid army rather than the decentralized feudal system or lords and vassals. 
This was the first Christian standing army since the fall of the Western Roman Empire.</p>

<h2>Critical invention: The Longbow</h2>

<p>The English first encountered the longbow in their wars with the Welsh. English Longbows emerged by the 100 years war contributed to their prowess against the French who relied heavily on knights. The original short bow didn't require much training to use, but packed almost no punch against a knight. Crossbows were then invented as an effective ranged weapon against knights but suffered from a slow firing rate. You could speed it up a bit by lying prone but doing this in the face of a charging knight was not prudent. </p>

<p>The Longbow took the best of both worlds: the force of its blow could penetrate armor and it didn't take ages to reload. This weapon gave the English their decisive victories against the French knight armies at Crécy, Poitiers and Agincourt. </p>

<p>The longbow wielded by hundreds of archers was a very effective way to deal with knights. And although unlike short bows, it requires training, fighting as a longbowman was far cheaper and easier than fighting as a knight. Now the peasant class had once again a reason to fight, and gain some leverage over the noble fighting classes.</p>

<p>The Hundred Years War and “Babylonian captivity” of the church in France occurred simultaneously, as did the Black Death. </p>

<h1>The Black Death</h1>

<p>Likely Bubonic Plague. 1347-1351 was period of greatest mortality.  Killed potentially 50% of people in Europe at the time. It came from the east via Italy, the main connection point to the Orient. Earlier and more southerly parts of Europe were the most affected, in some cases 75% of the population dying.</p>

<p>There wasn't a good understanding about the underlying reason for the plague at all, so other reasons were sought. As usual, Jews were blamed for the plague, leading to increased pogroms around this same era. </p>

<p>Around 1340 was a local maximum in European population. These levels were not seen again until the 17th century. Outbreaks of the plague still occurred, but became rarer and rarer. </p>

<p>!<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Population_of_Europe_1300-1800.png">Population of Europe 1300-1800.png</a></p>

<p>Because of the huge depopulation, things looked quite different economically. Suddenly there was a labor shortage. Wages shot up 3-5x. Cost of food had decreased due to a reduction in demand. Land prices went down too. Wage laborers began to enjoy a very high standard of living. </p>

<p>Economically speaking, this was great news for the surviving poor, but bad news for the nobles. A variety of attempts were made by nobles to curtail these negative economic effects. Some tried to fix wages by law, which largely failed to overpower strong market forces. Others tried to bring back serfdom, effectively bringing back free labor. This was counter to the interests of the crown since serfs were in the jurisdiction of their lord, including for tax and legal reasons. This was resisted in the west, but for some reason in the east of Europe serfdom came back with a vengeance and lasted well into the 19th century, with second order effects into modernity. </p>

<h1>Freedom in East and West Europe</h1>

<p>In the early Middle Ages, Eastern Europe was the European frontier. Lords of the east could entice western serfs to move and settle in their domains in exchange for freedom. Thus early in the Middle Ages, the east had more free smallholders than the west. </p>

<p>After the plague, the dynamics shifted substantially. Western countries with historically stronger kings were not interested in supporting serfs, who would only strengthen nobles, paying tax to them and being subject to their courts. </p>

<p>Also, empowered peasantry in the west staged successful rebellions (The Jacquerie in France, English Peasant Revolt) against nobles that attempted to revive serfdom. England was especially ahead of the game in terms of personal liberties for the masses. After the Normal conquest, William the Conqueror and his line established unprecedentedly strong and centralized control over England. The Baronial revolts and early Magna Carta set the stage for more personal liberties, and a rule of law. The island had time to develop independently due to its distance from mainland Europe.</p>

<p>In the east however, a feudal, more distributed system controlled by nobles and weaker rulers meant that serfdom could be brought back in force. Toward the late Middle Ages, many peasants in the east were newly serfs, and very few in the west. Russian serfdom lasted well into the mid 19th century. </p>

<p>Feudalism is distributed and leads to bad outcomes for the masses. In general this is a good example of distributed not being always better than centralized from a consequential standpoint. </p>

<h1>Gone are the days of the knights</h1>

<h2>Pikes</h2>

<p>Infantry was becoming increasingly effective against knights around the 13th century. In Flanders, a knight army could be thwarted by to opening up water gates and flooding the whole plain. In the Scottish mountains, knights did not have a flat area from which to charge. More generally, effective anti-knight tactics were developed around this time:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Traps</strong>: Infantry would dig ditches, fill them with spikes and cover them with leaves. </li>
<li><strong>Pikemen</strong>: pikes were longer than lances, so would impale a knight before they would impale the pikeman. Armies of pikemen would dig their pike's dull ends into the ground.</li>
<li><strong>Halberds</strong>: The Swiss developed the halberd, a spear with an axe and hook. You could use it as a pike, and/or use the hook to pull the knight off his horse, and/or split him in twain with the axe. It’s sort of a Swiss Army knife, so to speak. The halberd could also be used offensively in phalanx-like formations.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Cannons</h2>

<p>Gunpowder was developed initially in China, where it was used as a shock weapon. Early European cannons were also useful only for shock tactics as well, being very loud and scary to those that heard it in the battlefield. But they were not at all effective at hitting their targets, and accidents often resulted in the death of the canon crew. Still, the Europeans were more persistent and continuously refined the cannon to eventually make a very effective siege weapon.</p>

<p>The development of the canon with especially devastating for knights and other lords since it meant that their castle at home was no longer as impregnable.</p>

<p>Each cannon was initially given a name, much like Trebuchets, one named Malvoisin ("bad neighbor"). It's interesting what war equipment is given names, and which is not. Trebuchets, early Cannons. Ships are always named. Why aren't planes? What about tanks?</p>

<p>At the start of the hundred years war, cannonballs were made out of large stone boulders. These were rounded out by hand, and inevitably ended up with irregularities which would greatly reduce accuracy. Even if the stone cannonball hit the wall, it would shatter on impact. Around 1430, stone cannonballs were replaced with cast iron cannonballs which were much more spherical and much  more devastating on impact.</p>

<p>Castle design reacted to the invention of cannon. Walls became lower and thicker. Square towers rounded out and became cylindrical. Towers became the same height as walls, to allow artillery on the walls to more easily move into position. </p>

<h2>Arquebusiers and musketeers</h2>

<p>Personal firearms were less effective than cannons during the middle ages. The earliest resembled broomsticks with a small cannon on the end. The arquebus was developed in the early 15th century and it was a functional precursor to the musket. This weapon proved effective against knights at the Battle of Pavia, just like the longbow at Agincourt. </p>

<p>The combination of pikemen and musketeers was an especially formidable force against knights. Knights really hated Musketeers especially (nice backstory on the whole Three Musketeers plot). Even heavier plate mail was developed to try to defend against musket balls. Some inroads were made, but ultimately these full-plate suits were so heavy that they were impractical. </p>

<hr />

<p>As a result of so many forces working against nobles, many are forced to take paid employment, either at the court of a more powerful noble or at the court of the king. This marks the rise of courtiers. This cultural shift replaces the ideal of the chivalric knight. Now, nobles are expected not to ride a horse and save ladies, but to be nonchalant royal advisors capable of performing music and reciting poetry. Presumably all while still fulfilling duties of their job for which they were hired?</p>

<h1>Printing press and related inventions</h1>

<p>Although the printing press is by far the sexiest invention required for broader production of printed books, other breakthroughs were required in writing materials, advances in script, and book style. Daileader does a good job emphasizing this.</p>

<h2>Papyrus-parchment-paper</h2>

<p>Papyrus was the earliest writing material, made of a water plant that grows in abundance in the Nile river delta in Egypt. It emerged around 3000 BCE and the Egyptians controlled it fully. </p>

<p>Parchment is another writing material made of animal skins. It may have emerged as early as 1500 BCE, but is named after the King of Pergamum (пергамент) in Asia Minor around 100 BCE. It was developed in response to the cessation of Egyptian papyrus exports. The process was of making parchment was quite intense, requiring animal skins to be stretched over a frame, cleaned fully of fat, then dried. The rougher exterior side of the skin could serve as a book cover. The whiter interior was used to write on. </p>

<p>Parchment was expensive to produce, and as a result was often reused. Old scrolls would just be cleaned up, with ink removed, and then use it again to create anew. Vellum was a fancier, whiter variant of parchment. The highest grade required killing a pregnant sheep and her unborn calf, and then creating the parchment from the calf's skin (aka Chickenskin).</p>

<p>Towards the late middle ages, paper production was imported from China. This was much cheaper than parchment and the necessary condition for democratizing books.</p>

<h2>Advances in script</h2>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Carolingian_minuscule">Carolingian minuscule</a> was commonly used around the time of the early middle ages. One problem with this script was that it was quite rounded and laborious for scribes to produce by hand. So scribes created a more efficient writing style called now called Gothic script. This had the benefit of being mostly vertical, so easieir to write because of a predominantly unidirectional motion of the arm. An added benefit was that the script was more compact, so more text would fit on one page.</p>

<p>Simultaneously, handwritten script with ligatures was revived from classical antiquity. Later, in an attempt to disavow of anything middle age related, scholars shunned gothic script and reverted back to minuscule, not realizing that it too was a middle age invention (c. 9th century)</p>

<h2>Book style</h2>

<p>During the early Middle Ages books were extremely large and heavy, requiring a pedestal to support. Books tended to get smaller over time, some were soon small enough to fit into a pocket. </p>

<p>Further inventions in readability were introduced: indices, tables of contents.</p>

<h2>Printing press precursors</h2>

<p>Woodcut prints allowed the artist to create multiple copies of his artwork. This required more effort than simply sketching with ink and paper, since the work needed to be etched into wood. But then once the wooden etching was created, you could create hundreds or thousands of impressions. The problem with wood was that it wore out overtime. Handcrafted metal blocks were also attempted, and this was obviously even harder than making a wood block.</p>

<p>Another challenge with wood blocks was that the stamped image would sometimes be unevenly produced, either because part of the wooden block had deteriorated, or there was some uneven application of ink, or uneven pressure. Furthermore, doing two-sided prints of woodblocks was impossible using this technique, since producing the imprint on one side would create an extrusion on the other side.</p>

<h2>The printing press</h2>

<p>Gutenberg's printing press combined two prior inventions: the wine press for evenly transferring ink from source to target, and movable metal type. A printer would typeset a whole page, make many copies of it, then move on to the next page. The end result were many copies of a printed book.</p>

<p>Metal typesetting was known in Asia, but never combined with wine style presses. Compared to Asia, Europe had other important advantages: </p>

<ul>
<li>European alphabets are phonetic and have fewer than 30 symbols. In contrast, Asian alphabets are mostly ideographical and have thousands of symbols. </li>
<li>Chinese printing presses were state run, and as a result mostly Confucian classics were produced. In Europe the printing press was subject to the free market, and thrived.</li>
</ul>

<p>Second order impacts of the printing press were huge:</p>

<ol>
<li>Spread of knowledge in general. Nuff said!</li>
<li>Errata could be issued in bulk, since many books were now identical and issued in editions. </li>
<li>Ossification of English spelling. Previously spelling was pretty variable. This is especially annoying since the great vowel shift followed shortly thereafter, rendering English spellings nonsensical. </li>
</ol>

<h1>Humanism in Late Medieval Europe</h1>

<p>The humanist movement arose in 14th century Italy as part of the Italian Renaissance. Humanists aimed for a revival of classical art and literature, and following Petrarch, viewed the preceding centuries as a dark and lost age of regression. (Interesting to see how the “first industrial revolution” from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Medieval_Technology_and_Social_Change">Medieval Technology and Social Change</a> framing conflicts with this). They were headquartered largely in Florence where the recently founded university had not yet been fully oriented toward the scholastic tradition which was ubiquitous everywhere else. Florence at the time was extremely rich, minting the Florin, the first gold coin Europe had seen in almost a millennium.</p>

<p>Unlike medieval artists and authors, humanists signed their work and strive for a sort of secular immortality by living on in the minds of their peers after their inevitable death. That said, humanists were still deeply entrenched in the Christian tradition. This was not yet the enlightenment, nor the reformation, nor the scientific revolution.</p>

<h1>Christians and Muslim conflicts in the late middle ages</h1>

<p>The Byzantine empire stood valiantly for a millennium longer than its western roman counterpart. Its land holdings empire ebbed and flowed from assailants from all around, sometimes shrinking to little more than Constantinople itself. By the 15th century, the Ottoman Turks finally conquered the impregnable city of Constantinople and officially ended the Byzantine empire. </p>

<p>This was seen as a huge loss, especially from a humanist lens. The whole Greek trove of knowledge was lost to Christendom for eternity! In practice, by then much of this trove of classical Greek culture had been assimilated by the west, through translation, and through a revival of Greek language, hearkening back to classical antiquity, when Roman elites were fluent in both Latin and Greek.</p>

<p>With the fall of the Byzantine empire, Europe was bracing for more incursions from their aggressive and powerful Turkish neighbors. Sure enough, the Ottomans even managed to conquer and briefly hold small parts of Italy. So it was welcome news that in Iberia, the kingdoms of Aragon and Castille had formed an alliance with the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella, and they had set out to conquer Granada, the last Islamic state in the west. This was a culmination of many centuries of European reconquest of Al-Andalus, the Ummayad kingdom that formed from the ashes of the Visigoths, defeated in the 8th century. Spain was once a cultural melange of three religions, but F&amp;I were keen to homogenize their joint kingdom. </p>

<h1>The Spanish Inquisition</h1>

<p>Shortly after the defeat of Granada, jubilant Ferdinand and Isabella decided to kick it up a notch and the Spanish Inquisition swung into full force. Spain had previously not participated in the papal inquisition, and unlike the previous inquisitions which relied on inquisitors reporting to the pope, the Spanish inquisition was operated by the king and queen. </p>

<p>It's somewhat unclear why F&amp;I decided to force all Jews to convert or leave. Ferdinand had recently appointed Jewish courtiers whose contract was not due to expire for years. The reason given was that there were too many Christians converting to Judaism in Spain. In practice, anti-Jewish sentiment had been rising for decades, thanks to preachers like Ferrand Martinez, and the massacre in 1391 which led to 50,000 Jewish deaths and far more forced conversions.</p>

<p>In 1492, every Jew in Spain was given a choice: convert or leave. Those that converted to Christianity were called conversos. Some conversos even managed to secure bishoprics, but many were treated with suspicion by the masses, who suspected that many conversos continued to practice the Jewish faith in secret. Thus even if you converted from Judaism, you were still somehow Jewish, and this is the origin of Jewishness as a race, which permeates into modernity and foreshadows Jewish horrors of the 20th century. Furthermore, now that conversos were Christian, they were subject to the inquisition, and those that were found guilty of heresy were burnt alive.</p>

<h1>Maritime technology in Iberia</h1>

<p>Back to technology: navigation and sailing ships, in the context of Iberian expansion and the age of exploration. The Iberian peninsula at the time was not split between Spain and Portugal, but between several rival kingdoms: Kingdom of Castile, the Kingdom of Aragon, the Kingdom of Navarre, and the Kingdom of Portugal.</p>

<h2>The Caravel</h2>

<p>Shipbuilding technology was fairly stagnant until the 15th century. Here are a few common ship types before this period:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Longships</strong>, aka galleys were powered by teams of rowers. They had to be light so that the men could propel it and it had to be long enough so enough men could fit inside. Because of the large crew, their provisions, and other constraints, these ships could not carry much cargo. Longships were short range and only used on the Mediterranean. Some longships had sails that would be raised in favorable downwinding conditions.</li>
<li><strong>Roundships</strong> often had a single mast with a square rigged single sail. They were large and bulky and slow, but could carry a lot of cargo. The square rigged sail meant you would mainly use the sail to go downwind, greatly limiting maneuverability. </li>
<li><strong>Lateen</strong> sailboats originated in the Nile, but were later used in the Mediterranean. These triangular sails could luff and generate lift using the sail as a wing, and move the vessel towards the wind. Lateen sails of the 14th century also tended to be quite small, so were not very effective.</li>
</ul>

<p>Because of its geography, the Iberian kingdoms had exposure to both north Atlantic roundships, and ships with Lateen sails commonly used in the Mediterranean. The Caravel, invented by the Portuguese in the 15th century, combined both types of sails. Early designs had a front square rigged sail, and a rear lateen sail, allowing ships to zig-zag upwind, or run downwind depending on wind conditions.</p>

<h2>Other Iberian advantages</h2>

<p>The Iberian peninsula was extremely well situated geographically, in the far southwest of Europe, and thus the natural portal to west Africa. Furthermore, the Spanish had a great history of seafaring already and were notoriously brave sailors, willing to venture further than others in pursuit of fish and whales. Lastly, some of the best mapmakers of the age were based on the Balearic islands (Ibiza, Mallorca, Menorca).</p>

<p>The Kingdom of Portugal had the early upper hand. Portuguese Caravels were slowly traveling further and further south down the West African coast. Thanks to the funding efforts of Prince Henry the navigator, Vasco da Gamma finally reached the Cape of Good Hope. Meanwhile, F&amp;I were spending most of their disposable income on conquering Granada for the new Spanish alliance. </p>

<p>Portugal established footholds in many parts strategically located in Africa and far beyond. Distant ports included Goa off the coast of India, Macao off China, many of which remain to this day Portuguese territories. F&amp;I had attempted to loosen the Portuguese monopoly on the world, they were ultimately unsuccessful and in 1480 Ferdinand and Isabella granted a official monopoly to Portugal over a train with west Africa. Portuguese caravels were militarily superior and were very quickly able to destroy Arab fleets that previously controlled trade in the Indian ocean. The Portuguese king assumed a lofty title: Lord of the conquest and navigation of the ocean in India, Arabia, and Persia. </p>

<p>The Canary Islands were a bit of a revelation for Europeans that discovered them a new world that wasn't yet known to them, yet populated by people! Castilians first conquered the island and enslaved the local Guanches, the indigenous people of the islands. They died in huge quantities from the diseases the Europeans brought with them. Instead, the Spanish had to rely on imported west African slaves to run the plantations there. Why weren't west Africans subject to European diseases? Mainly because the cross-pollination between Europe and Africa. The European treatment of the Canaries established the model for colonization and served as a base for Columbus to venture further west. </p>

<p>Madeira and the Azores were uninhabited and discovered shortly after the Canaries. West African slaves were quickly imported there to establish the Sugar plantations as well as the Portuguese Madeira industry.</p>

<h1>The Columbian exchange</h1>

<p>Columbus had failed to convince the Portuguese king to fund his voyage, so pursued funding from Ferdinand and Isabella. The Catholic Monarchs were busy vanquishing the last remnants of Granada, it was taking longer than expected, and cost a fortune. They kept him on retainer for seven years, and only then committed to Columbus' voyage. Once he discovered what he called Asia but what was actually the New World, it was unclear who would own the territory. </p>

<p>Prior to the European discovery of America, The Treaty of Tordesillas divided the newly-discovered lands outside Europe between the Portuguese Empire and the Spanish Empire (Crown of Castile), along an arbitrary meridian set by the Pope. This line happened to miss North America but cut South America in half, and explains why Brazil became a Portuguese territory (!).</p>

<p>One way to look at Columbus' discovery is as a large ecological event, in which previously diversifying and independent ecosystems  suddenly merged. If this is not the start of the Anthropocene, what is?</p>

<h2>Euro-American trade imbalances</h2>

<p><strong>Plants</strong>: a pretty good balance trade balance. Many critical crops from the New World corn and potato proved to be extremely important back in Europe. Other delicious new world plants included tomatoes, pineapples, peanuts, kidney beans, cashews, squash, sweet potatoes, avocado, chili pepper. And also druuuugs like coca and tobacco. And don't forget hammocks!</p>

<p>Meanwhile, the New World saw a lot of new and critical crops from the east: sugar cane, bananas, coffee, wine grapes. Also onions, radish, and dandelions.</p>

<p><strong>Diseases</strong>: a big imbalance in favor of Europe. America had syphilis, and that's pretty much it. But the old world had loads of new diseases for the Americans, decimating their population. </p>

<p><strong>Animals</strong> a big imbalance in favor of Europe. America had very few pack animals: no cattle, pigs, sheep, or horses. Americans mainly had Turkeys and Llamas.</p>

<h1>End of Middle Ages</h1>

<p>Scholars can’t decide if 14th and 15th centuries are Middle Ages or renaissance. If you go to Italy at this period it’s the renaissance, otherwise it's the Middle Ages. One way to think about where to draw the line is what sort of things one could expect in the middle ages. Here are a few:</p>

<h2>Characteristics of the Middle Ages</h2>

<ul>
<li>Hereditary kings.</li>
<li>Elites are nobles, basis in landowning and military dominance.</li>
<li>Small scale production in the home, commerce dominated by guilds designed to keep production low.</li>
<li>Bottom of society are serfs, liberties constrained.</li>
<li>Belief in god is universal, and the basis of all intellectual life. </li>
<li>Reverence for the past and skepticism for thinking from first principles.</li>
</ul>

<p>Based on this list, the Middle Ages continues well into the 16th century. Italian Humanists were trying to make a break from the past, but did nothing to eliminate nobility or serfdom, improve quality of life, or reform the guild system. </p>

<p>Daileader proposes a better potential endpoints to the Middle Ages, like the Scientific Revolution or the Protestant Reformation. But even these periods were rooted in the Middle Ages. Luther was a scholastic scholar following Aquinas' tradition. Newton was deeply religious. Perhaps an even better endpoint for the Middle Ages actually is the Enlightenment in the mid-18th century. The French Revolution was the antithesis to the Middle Ages and ushered in the drastic and abrupt end to many of the institutions central to the Middle Ages. (That said, the lecturer is a professor of Middle Age History, and is biased towards stretching the start and endpoints of his period of study.)</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Medieval Technology and Social Change</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/medieval-technology-and-social-change"/>
    
    <updated>2021-06-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/medieval-technology-and-social-change</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>I'm clearly on a serious history of the Middle Ages kick. I found this book by just searching the internet inspired by earlier courses on Medieval history, and didn't really know what I was getting into. Apparently it's really famous and influential among Medieval scholars, even causing the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stirrup_Controversy">Great Stirrup Controversy</a>.</p>

<p>This book was clearly written for academics. Latin and French quotes remain
untranslated, even in footnotes and endnotes. Yet somehow despite this, it is
engaging and readable.</p>

<p>It's great fun to try to integrate viewpoints on the same topic (Middle Age
Technology) and begin to start to fill in the gaps. One great benefit of
focusing on the Middle Ages is that there wasn't as much technology to speak of.
This helps focus in on fewer things, and constraints are good.</p>

<h1>History of Horses in Combat</h1>

<ol>
<li>Horse chariots, in which a two wheeled cart is used as a moving platform for combat.</li>
<li>Mounted archers and light combat on horseback.</li>
<li>Knights, using combined weight of horse, rider and armor.</li>
</ol>

<h1>Charles and the Knights</h1>

<p>Charles Martel and his descendants saw the potential of using horses for mounted shock combat. (White seems to ignore high backed saddles and the couched lance technique, with a shocking emphasis on stirrups.) Using armies of knights, Martel the Hammer defeated the Arabs and retook many lands, rebuilding a shorter lived spiritual successor to the Roman empire. With knights proving so effective, there was a need for more knights. This led to a vast proliferation of feudalism, enabling new upwardly mobile vassals to gain access to lands required of a knight, and ultimately cemented this new style of warfare. By 1000, the Latin "miles", which had meant soldier, began to mean knight. </p>

<p>White has a great discussion about the “diffusion” of stirrups. In general this lens of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Diffusion_of_Technology">Diffusion of Technology</a> is one to keep in mind. I've adopted it in my random walk into <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Age_Heaping_Using_Canadian_1852_Census_data">Age Heaping Using Canadian 1852 Census data</a>. As White eloquently puts it,</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>As our understanding of technology increases, it becomes clear that a new device merely opens a door; it does not compel one to enter. The acceptance or rejection of an invention, or the extent to which its implications are realized if it is accepted depends quite as much upon the condition of a society, and upon the imagination of its leaders, as upon the nature of the technological item itself.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>The <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Second_order_effects_and_unintended_consequences">Second order effects and unintended consequences</a> of this shift were massive. Horses were expensive to buy and maintain, armor was becoming heavier to be effective against lances with the force of thousands of pounds at its tip. Equipment for one knight seemed to cost about 20 oxen (a peasant family relied on 2). Knights often had squires, and multiple spare horses.</p>

<p>Charlemagne and other Carolingian kings encouraged peasants to band together and choose one of them to fight as a knight. Since land was the source of power of the time (money was not as key), the landed knights became the nouveau riche, creating a large gulf between them and the peasantry from which many of them came.</p>

<p>The old Germanic (nit: wasn't it the case in Rome too?) idea that every freeman was a soldier was now replaced by a professional fighting class.</p>

<p>Because of all the armor, knights became virtually unrecognizable and needed to develop some visual identification, and thus tradition of heraldry was born.</p>

<p>The cross bow emerged, either revived, or borrowed from the Chinese to penetrate knight's armor.</p>

<h1>Farming Practices</h1>

<p>Cross plowing was a technique to till tougher northern soil with a scratch plow. Furrows were made horizontally and vertically. This led to square fields. The moldboard plow, also known as the heavy plow eliminated the need for cross plowing because single furrows were deep enough for northern lands. It was also far more efficient. This made the fields long and narrow. (White does not mention the other reason for long fields: that ox teams were hard to turn.)</p>

<p>The heavy plow was wheeled and required an eight ox team. This required collaboration between peasants and led to closer ties and village councils. Large fields collectively owned were doled out to villagers in sequence. In contrast, southerners using scratch plows remained individualistic. </p>

<p>Diffusion of this technology was difficult and required a large population density. Another challenge was that collaboration was required between peasants to join plots together for this new farming practice. </p>

<p>Nailed Horseshoes were another key invention for agriculture. In Italy the warm climate worked well for unclod horses. But in the north, the climate and soil was such that horse hooves would often break. </p>

<p>The need for horses to carry more weight (armored knights) led to selective breeding of destriers. These stronger horses inevitably interbred with peasant farm horses, leading to stronger offspring. </p>

<p>Horses with padded collars could exert as much force as oxen. But moved much faster, so could output a lot more power. More speed let to more harrowing which was more effective at breaking up clods.</p>

<p>Yet the ox did not spread as quickly in England as one might expect. White suggests that this may have been because of a reluctance due to a lack of skin in the game, related to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Does_your_output_affect_your_paycheck?">Does your output affect your paycheck?</a>.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>the real reason for his favoring the ox at the plow emerges when he remarks that 'the malice of the ploughmen does not permit a horse-drawn plough to go any faster than one pulled by oxen'. This kind of slow-down may have affected the ploughing of demesne lands done reluctantly under manorial obligation but it would not apply when peasants were working their own fields.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Other benefit of switching to horses was that they could be used as transport. During Roman times, cost of goods doubled every 100 mi of overland transport. This meant that viable farmland was situated only along rivers. During Roman times, most vehicles were two-wheeled. The first horse-drawn four-wheeled wagons appeared by 13th century and reduced overland cost so much that transport over 100 miles increased by just 30% (a 70% savings). This expanded viable farmland further from rivers, allowed a lot more farmland, and increased overall carrying capacity.</p>

<p>Wagon inventions:</p>

<ul>
<li>Pivoted front axles</li>
<li>Adequate brakes</li>
<li>Whipple trees</li>
</ul>

<p>Because of the horse, peasants didn't need to rely entirely on merchants, but could get their goods to market on their own.</p>

<p>Horses also gave them more mobility, and many were able to move to form larger settlements and benefit from amenities there: the commune, a church, a tavern, more suitors, markets, etc. Horse as transport enabled them to commute to their fields daily.</p>

<p>(This is all so interesting from the perspective of complex systems and feedback
loops...)</p>

<h2>Three field rotation</h2>

<p>First recorded in 763, this practice became ubiquitous by 800 (shockingly fast). Previously, Europe had practiced the two field rotation invented by Romans. The old system alternated two halves, with one planted, the other left fallow. </p>

<p>The three field system split holdings into three sub-fields. The peasant planted winter crops (winter wheat or rye) on field 1, then summer crops (oats, barley, lentil, etc) on field 2, and left field 3 fallow. Next year, fields do a circular shift. </p>

<p>This had many advantages over the two field rotation:</p>

<ul>
<li>2/3 land utilization during the year (vs. 1/2).</li>
<li>More crop variety means more resiliency to droughts.</li>
<li>Better yields since legumes fix the nitrogen in the soil.</li>
<li>Oats for horses! Oats are much more nutritionally rich than grass, allowing many more horses to work in agriculture. </li>
<li>A more even workload for farmers throughout the year.</li>
<li>Legumes provided extra nutrition for protein starved peasantry.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Mechanical power</h1>

<p>Mechanical power experiments were done in antiquity - e.g. with Hero's Aeolipile, a proto-steam engine. But inventions like these did not get refined and was never put to use at scale until the middle ages.</p>

<p>(Not mentioned in White's book, but it appears that labor was very cheap in the early middle ages, with agricultural slaves being common. Towards the high middle ages, slaves are replaced by serfs, and are then set free to work as smallholder farmers. The cost of labor goes up further after the population is decimated by the Black Death. All of this drives the demand for cheap power.)</p>

<h2>Water power</h2>

<p>Water mills became common around the 11th century. By this point the Vitruvian design had won out: a vertical wheel that turned a horizontal shaft. Earlier designs used a horizontal wheel and a vertical shaft, but did not require gears. Domesday reported that 5000 water wheels were in place for 3000 villages, circa 1086. Tidal wheels were also used, with some early examples on the Adriatic.</p>

<h2>Wind power</h2>

<p>Wind power was originally harnessed in Tibet and China where mantras written on scrolls were placed on bookshelves which rotated by power of wind to increase their holiness. Windmills in Europe spread quickly. They could produce less power than water mills, but do not require a strong river flow. Also, they are immune to rivers freezing in winter or drying up in fall.</p>

<p>Applications of this mechanical power included mostly milling grain but also filling cloth, sawing wood, crushing olives, operating bellows for blast furnaces, turning grindstones to polish metal, mincing paper pulp. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The late Middle Ages has indeed been described as a “medieval industrial revolution based on water and wind.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p>An interesting aside is that the Aelopile did have a direct application in the Middle Ages: a blower to keep fires oxygenated and burning more evenly called a sufflator.</p>

<h2>Pneumatic weapons</h2>

<p>Other pneumatic devices may have been inspired by a blowgun from Malay. This design was apparently appropriated by Arabs and eventually made its way to Europe around the middle ages. If you continue the logical chain, the idea of having a barrel and a projectile means that the simple blowgun was a precursor to the musket, as well as the steam engine. Succinctly:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The cannon is not only important in itself as a power-machine applied to warfare: it is a one-cylinder internal combustion engine, and all of our more modern motors of this type are descended from it.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Corned gunpowder was a major refinement I’d not heard of. http://firearmshistory.blogspot.com/2016/07/black-powder-vii-corned-powder.html?m=1</p>

<h2>Gravity-based weapons</h2>

<p>Gravity based mechanical machines. The trebuchet emerged sometime in 11th (?) century and greatly improved on the Roman catapults, able to hurl 300 lb stone 300 yards using a long 50 ft lever arm and a heavy counterweight. Massive improvement over the Roman stars, 60 lb stone 450 yards. In siege warfare the mass of projectile matters most. </p>

<h1>Mechanisms and mechanical engineering</h1>

<p>Cranks… not sure why this section feels so dull right now. This reader struggled through a long discussion about cranks and when they were invented. Apparently not until 10th century or so in Europe. </p>

<p>Okay but seriously, cranks are important as a precursor to the pistons and in general the conversion of reciprocating motion into rotation or vice versa. If the driving force is reciprocation, you end up with a significant dead zone to get through. This is solved with a compound crank (as in a two stroke engine) and aided by Flywheels, which don’t appear until 14th century. Tangentially related, I really enjoyed <a href="https://ciechanow.ski/internal-combustion-engine/">this marvelous interactive explanation on the internal combustion engine</a>.</p>

<p>Treadles, or foot pedals that drive a rotating mechanism, are first found in China around the 2nd century, and then in Europe around the 12th century. Spinning wheels use treadles but also use belt drive and multiple subsystems that run at different speeds. </p>

<p>Ultimately these increasingly sophisticated mechanisms enabled mechanical clocks, which involved many mechanisms rotating at different rates. Water clocks had been an improvement over sundials but had many shortcomings. For example, they didn’t operate in freezing temperatures. </p>

<p>Was there a gravity-based alternative to water clocks? A trebuchet-like idea was used and eventually culminated in mechanical clocks in the 14th century. These clocks were extremely elaborate, less functional and more status symbols and statements.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Giovanni's clock was only incidentally a timepiece. It included the celestial wanderings of sun, moon, and five planets. And provided a perpetual calendar of all religious feasts, both fixed and movable. </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Wrist watches were even trickier since they relied on springs which uncoiled and provided variable force during their uncoiling. These led to the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoeP0adbDKg">escapement</a> mechanism, and the <a href="https://youtu.be/cpVkTSZrg_A?t=100">fusee</a>, both impressively complex mechanisms:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Perhaps no problem in mechanics has ever been solved so simply and so perfectly - Gawaine Baillie</p>
</blockquote>

<p>It’s funny how underrated this time is from tech perspective, at least in the popular imagination. To me it feels like a veritable industrial revolution.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Indeed, the four centuries following Leonardo, that is, until electrical energy demanded a supplementary set of devices, were less technologically engaged in discovering basic principles than in elaborating and refining those established during the four centuries before Leonardo.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Perpetual motion</h1>

<p>All of these mechanical inventions were inspired by the ideal of a perpetual motion machine. This was not so outlandish pre-thermodynamics, given that windmills and water mills appeared to be moving perpetually. Perpetual motion through Gravity and magnetism became the holy grail. </p>

<p>Roger Bacon c. 1260 imagined:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Machines may be made by which the largest ships, with only one man steering them, will be moved faster than if they were filled with rowers; wagons may be built which will move with incredible speed and without the aid of beasts; flying machines can be constructed in which a man... may beat the air with wings like a bird... machines will make it possible to go to the bottom of seas and rivers</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Asides:</p>

<ul>
<li>I wondered if король comes from Carolingian. Nope, it comes from Charlemagne. That said, apparently "Carolingian" and in fact Charlemagne are both named after Charles Martel. In turn, Charles is a name from the common Germanic noun meaning "man". Go figure...</li>
<li>Lots of references to Bayeux tapestry. It's <a href="https://www.bayeuxmuseum.com/en/the-bayeux-tapestry/discover-the-bayeux-tapestry/explore-online/">available online...</a></li>
</ul>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Understanding Complexity by Scott Page</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/understanding-complexity-by-scott-page"/>
    
    <updated>2021-06-22T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/understanding-complexity-by-scott-page</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>Overall a dense but short listen. Potpourri of new ideas, and far better than
<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Why_Information_Grows_by_Cesar_Hidalgo">Why Information Grows by Cesar Hidalgo</a>. This lecture is well organized,
engagingly narrated, with memorable examples. A great, rather intense
introduction to Complexity.</p>

<p>A criticism I had was that Page attempts to weave too many disparate threads
together. The final chapter gives practical takeaways but they feel trite and
don't really integrate the most interesting parts from earlier in the book.</p>

<hr />

<p>Here are some ideas I from the book I found interesting.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Wolfram’s_four_system_types">Wolfram’s four system types</a> -
<a href="https://www.wolframscience.com/nks/p231--four-classes-of-behavior/">https://www.wolframscience.com/nks/p231--four-classes-of-behavior/</a></p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Complexity_happens_in_a_sweet_spot">Complexity happens in a sweet spot</a> - There are four necessary conditions for
complexity. But it's necessary that all of these conditions be present in
moderate quantities. Too much or too little of any of them will lead to
equilibrium, not complexity.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Measuring_diversity_generally_speaking">Measuring diversity generally speaking</a> - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_index">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_index</a></p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Dancing_landscape">Dancing landscape</a> - rugged landscapes that change over time.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Creative_vs._evolutionary_processes">Creative vs. evolutionary processes</a> - Evolution is relentless and infinitely
persistent, like the tortoise. Creativity requires drive from a specific group
of people, who are finite in energy and time, but can move quickly, like the
hare. </p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Power_law_vs_normal_distributions">Power law vs normal distributions</a> - Many things are normally distributed.
But some are power law distributed. Why? Independent events leads to normal
distribution. Interdependent events leads to power law distributions. </p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Explore_vs_exploit_trade-offs">Explore vs exploit trade-offs</a> - A well formulated treatment on this subject.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Self-organized_criticality">Self-organized criticality</a> - the idea that many systems approach a critical
state automatically.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Simulated_annealing">Simulated annealing</a> - an approach to finding global maximums under certain
constraints.</p>

<p><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Complexity_is_in_the_eyes_of_the_beholder">Complexity is in the eyes of the beholder</a> - if you're really smart, checkers
is just tic-tac-toe, and no longer complex. Is that right?</p>


        
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    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Diffusion of Literacy in 19th Century Canada</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/diffusion-of-literacy-canada"/>
    
    <updated>2021-06-21T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/diffusion-of-literacy-canada</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>The ancient Sumerians invented writing sometime around 3500 BCE. But how did
writing get refined? How did it spread outside of Sumer? In general, tracking
diffusion of ancient technology is hard. For tracking the spread of literacy,
however, here's an interesting idea. Innumerate people may fudge their
self-reported age to round or auspicious numbers. Individually, this leads to
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7l5ZeVVoCA">terrible earworms</a>. In aggregate, this error is called age heaping
and may be a decent proxy for literacy. In this post, I dig into the Province of
Canada's 1852 census, scraped from automatedgenealogy.com. To whet your
appetite, just look at these beautiful age heaps:</p>

<p><img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/ages_1852_census_heaps.png" alt="Age Heaps in Canada's 1852 census" /></p>

<p>Splitting the census data by demographics and calculating the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whipple%27s_index">ABCC Index</a>
on each, what can we infer about literacy in 19th Century Canada?</p>

<!--more-->

<h1>Timelines shminelines</h1>

<p>It's easy to create a timeline of historical inventions. Steam Engine? No
problem: 100 CE. Musical Notation? 2000 BCE. Bam! Land mines? 1277. There are
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_historic_inventions">many</a>
<a href="https://smus.com/visual-chronology-science-discovery/">such</a>
<a href="https://localhistories.org/a-timeline-of-science/">timelines</a>
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=chronology+science&amp;i=stripbooks&amp;ref=nb_sb_noss">available</a>.
But the first known working date of an invention is usually a miniscule part of
the whole story. More interesting is what led to the invention being practical.
How was it refined? How did it spread? What was the impact? What cascade of
other inventions did it lead to? What were the cultural implications, the second
order effects?</p>

<h1>Technological diffusion is hard to measure</h1>

<p>William Gibson famously quipped, "the future is already here —  it's just not
very evenly distributed." Well, how uneven is the distribution? What about over
time? For ancient inventions, the archaeological record is often sparse.
Historians of technology fall back to depictions in art and philolology, both
often controversial sources.</p>

<h1>Aside: psychology of numbers</h1>

<p>I recently came across some finishing times for the 2019 Boston Marathon, which
included very clear peaks at the qualifying time (~3h for that year) as well as
round numbers:</p>

<p><img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/boston_marathon_2019.png" alt="Boston Marathon 2019 finishing times" /></p>

<p>It's inspiring to see people strive for and achieve goals. When I tweeted this,
@MelancholyYuga introduced me to a phenomenon I'd not heard of called Age
Heaping.</p>

<h1>Literacy from self-reported age?</h1>

<p>Here's the theory: people that struggle with numbers often don't know their own
age precisely, instead producing a round or lucky number.  Perhaps because they
can’t subtract to infer their current age from their birth year and the current
year. Or perhaps because they don't know their birth year at all. In aggregate,
these errors add up to create Age Heaps, clearly visible at decades, with
smaller peaks at ages ending in 5.</p>

<p>Given any survey with self-reported ages, one can calculate a metric that
estimates the literacy of a population. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whipple%27s_index">Various indices</a> like Whipple's
Index or ABCC Index quantify this.</p>

<h1>Finding an early census is hard</h1>

<p>Rather than read boring papers, I decided to try this idea on a raw dataset. I
immediately thought of the Domesday book, a famous medieval English survey.
Happily, it's been digitized and is available online in quite a nice form at
<a href="https://opendomesday.org/">opendomesday.org</a>. Unfortunately, the survey was not
granular enough to ask for self-reported ages, mostly focusing on the shire
level.</p>

<p>Newer historical census data is generally owned by the government, but then
digitized and indexed by private companies usually focused on genealogy, such
as <a href="https://familysearch.org">https://familysearch.org</a>. A fascinating wrinkle on early US censuses:
before 1840, the US census only named the head of household and then bucketed
dependents into seemingly arbitrary age categories: (0-10, 10-16, 16-26, 26-45,
45+). This throws a wrench into finding any Age Heaps.</p>

<p>Another source for data with self-reported ages are US passenger arrival
records, for example this <a href="https://heritage.statueofliberty.org/">Ellis Island arrival
database</a>. Once again, you can search the
corpus via their website, but they do not provide the underlying dataset, even
if you ask them nicely by email.</p>

<h1>1852 Census of the Province of Canada</h1>

<p>I was about to throw in the towel but then found
<a href="https://automatedgenealogy.com">https://automatedgenealogy.com</a>, a crowdsourced effort to digitize old
(pre-1920) Canadian censuses. Digitizing a census is tricky since the records
were entirely handwritten in flowing cursive, and I don't think we have good
enough OCR to make a dent on this problem. So the process involves transcribers
and verifiers working in tandem. I'm not entirely sure how well vetted the <a href="http://automatedgenealogy.com/census52/index.jsp?locale=en">data
from the site</a> is,
but I scraped it to do this analysis anyway. </p>

<p>This census includes the following fields:</p>

<ol>
<li>Name</li>
<li>Occupation</li>
<li>Country of Origin</li>
<li>Religion</li>
<li>Self-reported Age (YAY!)</li>
<li>Sex</li>
</ol>

<p>The self-reported age field is key. But the other demographic information is
also interesting. Looking at ABCC scores for sub-populations will be fun.</p>

<h1>ABCC Indices by demographics</h1>

<p>First off, I was pleasantly surprised to see very clear age heaping in this
census.</p>

<table>
  <tr><th></th><th>ABCC Score</th><th>Souls</th></tr>
  <tr><td>Overall</td><td>88%</td><td>1134930</td></tr>

  <tr><th colspan=3>Geography</th></tr>
  <tr><td>East (Quebec)</td><td>91%</td><td>481108</td></tr>
  <tr><td>West (Ontario)</td><td>85%</td><td>653822</td></tr>

  <tr><th colspan=3>Birthlace</th></tr>
  <tr><td>Born in Canada</td><td>92%</td><td>273873</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Born outside Canada</td><td>87%</td><td>861057</td></tr>

  <tr><th colspan=3>Occupation</th></tr>
  <tr><td>Labourer</td><td>79%</td><td>83754</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Farmer</td><td>86%</td><td>80544</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Servant</td><td>71%</td><td>13378</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Wife</td><td>89%</td><td>11214</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Spinster</td><td>87%</td><td>5992</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Carpenter</td><td>88%</td><td>5511</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Yeoman</td><td>88%</td><td>4505</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Blacksmith</td><td>90%</td><td>3226</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Merchant</td><td>92%</td><td>2327</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Housekeeper</td><td>82%</td><td>1743</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Teacher</td><td>85%</td><td>1737</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Tailor</td><td>91%</td><td>1713</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Cooper</td><td>87%</td><td>1617</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Weaver</td><td>81%</td><td>1277</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Miller</td><td>89%</td><td>1137</td></tr>

  <tr><th colspan=3>Religion</th></tr>
  <tr><td>Catholic</td><td>78%</td><td>176343</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Methodist</td><td>92%</td><td>145544</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Church of England</td><td>84%</td><td>111262</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Presbyterian</td><td>85%</td><td>104949</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Episcopalian</td><td>86%</td><td>37826</td></tr>
  <tr><td>Church of Rome</td><td>73%</td><td>11208</td></tr>
  <tr><td>No Religion (explicitly)</td><td>91%</td><td>2850</td></tr>
</table>

<h1>Wait, what exactly are ABCC Indices measuring?</h1>

<p>But is it really the case that if you don't know your age, you're likely to be
innumerate? All signs <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7l5ZeVVoCA">point to yes</a>.</p>

<p>More seriously, a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ehr.13087?af=R">big caveat</a> applies here:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Though it can stand in as an acceptable proxy for literacy, our findings
  suggest that age-heaping is most plausibly interpreted as a broad indicator of
  cultural and institutional modernization rather than a measure of cognitive
  skills.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Mostly open questions around the edges</h1>

<p>I suppose it makes sense that merchants (ABCC 92%) and skilled craftsmen
(Blacksmith 90%, Tailor 91%) would be more advanced on a measure of "cultural
and institutional modernization" as compared to servants (71%) and laborers
(79%).</p>

<p>It also makes sense that those born in Canada would remember their age better
than immigrants. The simplest explanation is that those born in Canada are
generally younger. Looking at the two age distributions side-by-side is
revealing:</p>

<p><img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/born_in_canada.png" style="float: left; width: 50%;"/>
<img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/born_outside_canada.png" style="float: left; width: 50%;"/></p>

<p>But why are residents of Canada East so much better at telling their own age
than those of Canada West? </p>

<p>And why do Methodists know their age so much better than Catholics? I've always
found protestant denominations mysterious. The plot thickens!</p>

<p><img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/methodists.png" style="float: left; width: 50%;"/>
<img src="/diffusion-of-literacy-canada/catholics.png" style="float: left; width: 50%;"/></p>

<p>Speculating wildly, if your culture is really into birthdays, you would closely
track your age and the age of close relatives. Knowing your own age would then
have little bearing on your ability to write or do arithmetic, throwing shade on
the whole premise.</p>

<h1>Eyes on the prize</h1>

<p>I'd originally hoped to find a way to measure diffusion of literacy
over time. But the 1852 Census of Canada only gives a single snapshot in time,
and other census data available on automatedgenealogy.com does not overlap
geographically.  In search for more data, I found and purchased <a href="https://aad.archives.gov/aad/series-description.jsp?s=4434&amp;col=1002">Russians to
America Passenger
Data</a>,
covering 1834 - 1900.</p>

<p>Quick pre-registration of hypotheses on that dataset:</p>

<ul>
<li>Subsequent waves of Russian immigrants exhibit increasing ABCC. </li>
<li>Strong correlation between size of city of origin and ABCC.</li>
</ul>

<p>Stay tuned and find out.</p>


        
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  <entry>
    <title>Consider Phlebas by Iain M. Banks</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/consider-phlebas-by-iain-m-banks"/>
    
    <updated>2021-06-06T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/consider-phlebas-by-iain-m-banks</id>
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        <p>After reading <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Player_of_Games_by_Iain_M._Banks">Player of Games by Iain M. Banks</a>, I wanted to read another in the Culture Series mainly for the world-building. </p>

<p>Consider Phlebas is a fast paced adventure book. The protagonist Bora Horza Gobuchul is unreasonably superhuman, possessing super strength, a great fighting ability, and among many other things, the ability to change his appearance at will. He finds himself in increasingly ridiculous situations, at one point stranded on a small island populated by fanatical cannibals. I found the plot itself to be so out there, parts of it read like my 10 year old self's stream of thought in an early creative writing assignment.</p>

<p>That said, Banks does a good job with the world-building. Set in the middle of the Idiran - Culture war, Horza sides with the Idirans mainly out of hatred for the culture. This is a fascinating conflict, reminiscent in some ways of modern divisions between progressive leftism and traditional conservatism. The author does a great job of making both factions quite relatable, and the protagonist morally ambiguous.</p>

<p>Idirans are monotheists, modeled on the fervent Jewish/Muslim variety. They range from zealots to pragmatists, but all have a clear sense of identity about them. Physically and spiritually my mind renders them as the Protoss from Starcraft. Except they have three limbs, and are in symbiosis with another race of six-limbed sentient beings.</p>

<p>The culture is sort of a macrocosm of Western society, far more technologically advanced, and taken to an extreme. All things, strengths and weaknesses are exaggerated. They rely heavily on sentient machines, and creatively named spacecraft. The lifestyle is decadent and are subject to the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Tyranny_of_Convenience">Tyranny of Convenience</a>. The have a general lack of conviction, and no skin in the game.</p>

<p>Ultimately, Horza is killed by an Idiran that mistrusts him. A moral lesson from Mr. Banks? The non-Hollywood ending is refreshing, given the superhero-like attributes of the protagonist.</p>

<p>The scale conveyed in this novel is huge, and well executed. The destruction of the Vavatch orbital is well described. Epic battle scenes are extremely cinematic and would play out well in an adaptation to the screen. But the end could have been shortened significantly. I was quite tired of the endless underground tunnels of Char's World. Overall, a fun read if you're into a fast paced, sometimes ridiculous action novel.</p>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Why Information Grows by Cesar Hidalgo</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/why-information-grows-by-cesar-hidalgo"/>
    
    <updated>2021-05-20T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/why-information-grows-by-cesar-hidalgo</id>
    <content type="html">
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        <p>Why Information Grows starts off strong with an accessible introduction to information theory and some interesting physics-inspired ideas. Sadly, as the book proceeds, it becomes clear that the author has pieced together multiple essays that were and remain loosely connected. It's clearly a derivative work, often far less clear than the books that are cited.</p>

<p>That said, a few things stood out for me:</p>

<ul>
<li>Prigogine's work on <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Dissipative_systems">Dissipative systems</a> and their applications. </li>
<li><a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Artifacts_as_crystallized_imagination">Artifacts as crystallized imagination</a></li>
<li>The <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Resource_curse">Resource curse</a></li>
</ul>

<h1>Information is the opposite of entropy</h1>

<p>Information is stimuli that has meaning in some context for its receiver. There is some relationship between information and complexity and information and order but Hidalgo dances around this question.</p>

<h1>Information in the universe is fractally distributed</h1>

<p>Information is rare in our universe. As far as we know, Earth is one place where information is highly concentrated. Earth is to information like black holes are to matter. This observation struck me as very anthropocentric. Maybe I'm reading too much science fiction!</p>

<p>On Earth, information is not uniformly distributed. Specific countries, companies, and individuals seem to represent more of it.</p>

<h1>Rubic's cube example from an info theory perspective</h1>

<p>The author does a decent job of explaining basic information theory. I liked his Rubic's cube example:</p>

<ul>
<li>There are e19 different states in the system.  </li>
<li>The most information is in the lowest entropy state, the solved solid colored state</li>
<li>You can’t just jump to the solved state without cheating</li>
<li>It takes under twenty moves to solve a cube from any state</li>
<li>Most algorithms take longer than the theoretical optimum sequence of moves.</li>
<li>Most random moves cause entropy to increase.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Information state changes are constrained</h1>

<p>The Rubic's cube can't go from any state to any other state unless you cheat and detach the cubes from the cube's core. The only valid moves are rotations. This is a profound point that I think is super relevant for any policy discussions. Often it’s very clear what a desired state of affairs is, but very unclear how to get to there. </p>

<h1>Encoding information</h1>

<p>Application to DNA: interesting sequences that code for something important are usually the least random ones. (Really?) Notably these information rich states don’t tell us about what this DNA means. Meaningless forms of order. </p>

<p>Information itself is meaningless. But can be absorbed my people to form knowledge. And practice can lead to know-how which I think is same idea as métis as in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Seeing_Like_a_State_by_James_Scott">Seeing Like a State by James Scott</a> and сноровка. </p>

<h1>Energy flows cause spontaneous order</h1>

<p>Entropy only increases in a closed universe. Meaning that this universe has no flow of energy into or out of it. </p>

<p>Ilya Romanovich Prigogine, a Russian Jewish born Belgian studied <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Dissapative_systems">Dissapative systems</a>, which are systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, with substantial steady-state flows of energy. Earth is such a system because the sun is the source of all our power.</p>

<p>In situations where there is a steady state, there is a tendency for spontaneous order. A whirlpool will spontaneously appear when you open the drain to a bath tub. Are there other simple examples?</p>

<p>This is super cool! Imagine all of life as a sort of very complex whirlpool. Actually, Ted Chiang kinda did in a more poetic version of this idea found in the story called Exhalation. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Exhalation_by_Ted_Chiang">Exhalation by Ted Chiang</a></p>

<h1>Information can be stored in solids</h1>

<p>Information can be preserved, and this preservation is best done in a solid state of matter, especially if it is non-uniform (eg. not a simple solid crystal, more like an organic molecule). The canonical example of this is DNA. </p>

<p>I didn't really like Zen and Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, but this quote works well here:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>That's all the motorcycle is, a system of concepts worked out in steel. There's no part in it, no shape in it, that is not out of someone's mind - Robert M. Pirsig</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Goldilocks zone for information to appear and remain</h1>

<p>Interesting analogy to physics: a desirable temperature range. you need liquidity for information to grow (eg. Whirlpool example, as well as the notion of liquid networks from <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Where_Good_Ideas_Come_From_by_Steven_Johnson">Where Good Ideas Come From by Steven Johnson</a>). But if it’s too liquid, solids can’t form to store that information. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>There are no long chains of proteins in the sun</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Energy is needed for information to emerge and solids are needed for information to endure. For information to explode we need the ability of matter to compute. </p>

<h1>Simple computation, very broadly defined</h1>

<p>Hidalgo defines computation extremely broadly. You don’t even need life for computation to occur in the natural world. He introduces a simple example of computation, a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_clock">chemical clock</a>, in which a set of regents can be mixed together to make a reaction that transitions in states at predictable time frames. Trees also compute in a similar way. </p>

<p>I don't really see what practical connection there is to computation the way we think of it more colloquially. </p>

<h1>Products as crystallized imagination</h1>

<p>Everyone uses toothpaste. Very few know how to produce sodium fluoride, or how to get it into that tiny tube. Toothpaste the product gives billions of people access to the practical benefits that a small group of toothpaste inventors created. Products allow us to transcend our individual limits. Toothpaste gives everyone the ability to maintain our teeth into old age. </p>

<p>Crystallized information comes in many forms. Most of human activity is like this. Writing, speaking, music making, dancing. But Hidalgo only cares about products. Products empower others with practical uses of your ideas. </p>

<p>The economy then is the substrate that allows products to spread from one individual to another. </p>

<p>I'm mildly annoyed at the author for:</p>

<ol>
<li>Not really justifying why he's so obsessed with products specifically. From an information growth perspective, does art not also compound?</li>
<li>Calling these things "products". It's very capitalist-y for no good reason. I strongly prefer artifacts.</li>
</ol>

<h1>The bad stuff</h1>

<p>The first part of the book discussing information theory and Prirogine's ideas was quite good. </p>

<p>Next, Hidalgo tries to apply information theory to people, companies, countries, and the global economy. This gets increasingly awkward. </p>

<h2>Personbytes, a useless analogy</h2>

<p>The personbyte is a transparently info theory derived quantity that's supposed to somehow represent a person's raw potential, I guess? The analogy is not great but illustrates a point. The information-theory notion of a byte is clean and mathematically precise. Applying it to people seems oddly reductive. People vary hugely in their potential and are products of their culture which is perpetually evolving. Stripped of this, we are just smart monkeys. My personal preference is to not introduce this faux-information theory concept. The same points could be made better without it.</p>

<p>Hidalgo's ultimate point is well taken: that the crystallized imagination encoded in artifacts increase your own imaginative potential. This puts you in a sort of a network with other people, and being part of this network lets you create more complex output. It’s much easier to build an electric scooter if your job is to put pieces together rather than inventing battery, electric motors, aluminum welds etc.</p>

<h2>Firmbytes...</h2>

<p>Hidalgo continues down this road and introduces the firmbyte, a unit of quantization for companies. Similar critiques apply.</p>

<p>Ford once had a plant called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_River_Rouge_Complex">The Rouge</a> that created cars end-to-end, taking iron ore, soy beans, rubber as input, then performing the whole manufacturing process (refining, smelting, forming, cauterizing, etc). This facility spanned an area roughly 2km x 2km and employed 100,000 people. This isn't common practice anymore.</p>

<p>Manufacturers don’t generally own the whole production line from raw material to final product. There is a natural unit size for a company, and that is the firmbyte. Again, extremely fuzzy, maybe inspired by information theory. Do not want.</p>

<p>The point here is even weaker: some things require multiple companies, or firmbytes to create. If there's too much friction to doing deals between companies, large networks can't be formed. Free trade agreements and standardization reduce friction between companies.</p>

<h2>Imagination trade imbalances</h2>

<p>Blending the idea of crystallized imagination and global trade, Hidalgo considers trade imbalances from the perspective of imagination. In the trade between Korea and Honduras, there is an imagination trade imbalance, with Korea providing in the commodity of imagination. He then ranks countries in terms of how much information capital they produce. Again, meh. </p>

<p>Hidalgo touches a bit on the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Resource_curse">Resource curse</a>. This would be interesting to understand in more detail. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse</p>

<h2>More derivative stuff</h2>

<p>In the spirit of being a random amalgamation of cool ideas Hidalgo likes:</p>

<ul>
<li>High trust enables lower transaction costs, as per <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Bowling_Alone_by_Robert_Putnam">Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam</a></li>
<li>Family is for communism, market is for capitalism.  <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Debt_by_David_Graeber">Debt by David Graeber</a></li>
</ul>


        
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  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>Emotional Life of the Toddler</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/emotional-life-of-the-toddler"/>
    
    <updated>2021-05-06T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/emotional-life-of-the-toddler</id>
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        <p>"Every generation Western Civilization is invaded by barbarians. We call them children." — Hannah Arendt</p>

<p>Alicia F. Lieberman begins with a milder version of the same sentiment:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>In the raising of every toddler, society recapitulates its own development. When a child is caught between the impulse to strike out and the fear of its consequences, conscience begins to be formed and civilization begins.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Relatable vignettes</h1>

<p>Mom speaks very highly of a classic Russian book called <a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D1%82_%D0%B4%D0%B2%D1%83%D1%85_%D0%B4%D0%BE_%D0%BF%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B8">От Двух до Пяти</a> (from Two to Five) which is a sort of proto-listicle of funny things small children say. It's fun, but I feel that as a parent I get a lot of these gems delivered to me on a daily basis from my own children.</p>

<p>Anyway, the author cites this exact book on toddler creativity. Struck me as a relatively rare of example of US-Russian citation.</p>

<p>Many vignettes are dispersed throughout this book too, some instructive and very relatable scenes. For example of Sonia, a 2.5 year old who sings loudly at the dinner table, diverting attention from the adult guest conversation.</p>

<p>Other stories are more creative and thought provoking, or just plain funny:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Damian is sitting at a table in his day care center, slowly moving his jaws and mouth while staring into space. "What are you chewing, Damian?" asks his caregiver. "I'm chewing Mommy," replies Damian dreamily.' </p>
</blockquote>

<p>Somehow the author can contain her laughter and respond seriously and eloquently:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Damien's answer tells us with haikulike conciseness about a major aspect of the toddler's child care experience: missing the parent, yet holding on to her through a combination of memory, hope, and imagination. By chewing on his mother's image, Damian is carrying her in the most reliable place of all-inside himself.</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Raw human insight</h1>

<p>When words are not enough:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Putting things into words has an inherent alienating effect because the part of the experience that remains unnamed is cut off and fragmented from the portion that is given official existence through language... When a precious toy is broken, words such as "sad" or "disappointed" cannoy possibly capture the enormity of the child's loss... </p>
</blockquote>

<blockquote>
  <p>Coaxing children to express their feelings in words before they are ready alienates them from access to the unspeakable realms of experience and teaches them wrongly that talking is equivalent to feeling.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>On age-related fear:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Throughout the life cycle the age-specific sources of anxiety have to do with life tasks we understand only imperfectly and have many fantasies about. For junior toddlers, this may center on movement and toilet training; for senior toddlers and 3- and 4-year-olds, on the differences between boys and girls and how babies are made; for young adults, on the secrets of love; for very old people, on the mysteries of death and the world beyond. We tend to be afraid of what we do not know, and toddlers are no exception.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p>On play as simulation</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Erik Erikson proposed the theory that play is the childhood version of a lifelong human propensity: setting up model situations to experiment with different ways of controlling reality. While playing, the toddler relives past events and in this process alleviates lingering anxiety and fear over what happened by “playing it out," just as adults derive emotional relief by “talking it out."</p>
</blockquote>

<p>On toddlers vs. teenagers (I am afeared):</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Not until adolescence will parents face as many dilemmas in rais ing their children as they do in the toddler years. In fact, the second and third years of life are excellent practice for the challenges posed by a teenager. Toddlerhood resembles adolescence because of the ra pidity of physical growth and because of the impulse to break loose of parental boundaries. At both ages, the struggle for independence exists hand in hand with the often hidden wish to be contained and protected while striving to move forward in the world. </p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Other notes</h1>

<p>Interesting take on parental discord: sometimes it's okay to resolve mild disagreements in front of a toddler. This demonstrates how adults resolve conflict. Doing this may be better than trying to hide animosity and build up an atmosphere of tension.</p>

<p>Great passage on guilt. Scenario with Cynthia not wanting to stay with a babysitter. She is precocious and tells her mom things like “I will miss you too much” and “why are you going without me?” Her mom feels bad, alternating between reassurance that it’ll be fine and admonishment that the child should stop whining. </p>

<p>The remedy? A less accepting response. Assert with confidence that it’s gonna be ok. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Won’t Cynthia fee guilty if she is told that her mother doesn’t arove of her behavior? If she does her ability to feel guilty at 40 months will actually speak well for her emotional development. As they grow children like adults need to experience remorse when they do something that is not acceptable to others. Guilt is a useful emotion when felt in response to specific damaging behavior. It is unhealthy only when it is pervasive, as in the Case of children who constantly worry they’re doing something wrong. </p>
</blockquote>

<h1>Concluding...</h1>

<p>The formula of this book is to take ordinary moments in child rearing, buttress them with funny and creative anecdotes, and then deliver profound truths about human existence.</p>

<p>This is not a "how to" guide, or a collection of weird tricks to raise your children. It's so far the best written child rearing book I've encountered.</p>


        
      </div>
      ]]>
    </content>
  </entry>
  
  <entry>
    <title>High Middle Ages</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/high-middle-ages"/>
    
    <updated>2021-05-03T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/high-middle-ages</id>
    <content type="html">
      <![CDATA[
      <div>
        <p>Why study the middle ages, and history in general? Daileader provides a pragmatic answer:</p>

<ul>
<li>Some things seem like artifacts of modernity, but are a millennium old.</li>
<li>Others appear fundamental and static, but are in fact very recent and ephemeral.</li>
</ul>

<p>Unless we can get the story straight, we'll have the wrong intuitions about the world today.</p>

<h1>Sandwich age</h1>

<p>Petrarch (13th century) believed that classical Greco-Roman art and culture was the apogee of humanity. After the fall of Rome, which he dated to the sack of Rome in 410, everything went downhill. Naturalism went out the window in favor of abstraction. The Latin language became corrupted. It was all horseshit! Petrarch hoped that his lifetime would see a return to classical values. His hope came true with the emerging Renaissance. Thus, two great eras in human history (classical &amp; renaissance) sandwiched a middle age so terrible it doesn't even deserve a proper name.</p>

<p>During the romantic period, the Middle Ages were viewed with nostalgia. Dirty, polluted, overworked people sought philosophers like Rousseau, who pined for the lush greenery of the past. Marx's vision of constant conflict between classes was seen in contrast to the harmonious system of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Three_Orders">The Three Orders</a> of the Middle Age.</p>

<p>Medeival is just how you say Middle Age in Latin. Love it when simple things click into place. </p>

<h1>Population explosion</h1>

<p>Europe's population roughly doubled during the high middle ages (1000-1300), in contrast to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Early_Middle_Ages">Early Middle Ages</a> (300-1000), where late Rome was charaterized by depopulation, followed by stagnation 700-1000. The era that followed, the <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Late_Middle_Ages">Late Middle Ages</a> were pummeled by the black death leading again to a decline in population. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Depopulation_is_often_correlated_with_decline">Depopulation is often correlated with decline</a></p>

<p>Around 1000 CE, Europe was very rural. Cities had at most 10,000 people living in them. By 1300 many towns grow into cities and have 100,000 residents. </p>

<p>Why this growth?
1. Decline in foreign attacks (Arabs, Vikings, Magyar marauders), partly because all of the good stuff had already been looted.
2. Roman slave populations were so poorly treated, their populations were declining. As more slaves became serfs, they were treated better and could have higher birth rates.
3. Advances in agricultural technology
2. Climate change: 800 - 1200 is called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period">Medeival Warm Period</a> a period of improved climate, improving crop yields.</p>

<p>As European cities grew, they became worthwhile stops for global merchants, since their markets now became big enough to be interesting. Italy dominated in trade because of its central position in the mediterranean. It's no accident that the famous Marco Polo emerges from Italy in 1270.</p>

<p>The monetary system also evolves around this time. At the height of Rome, a tri-metallic system was in place. Large transactions were done in gold coins, while bronze and copper coins were used for small daily transactions. By 1000, the continent regressed to a a much simpler system, relying on just silver for all transactions. By 1252, gold coinage was reintroduced by Florence: the florin. Small transactions were done in low quality silver. Related: <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/History_of_global_mediums_of_exchange">History of global mediums of exchange</a>.</p>

<h1>Aside on agricultural technology</h1>

<p>(Interesting: all three of these are energy efficiency-related...)</p>

<h2>Scratch plows =&gt; Moldboard plows</h2>

<p>As the Roman empire grew, the Scratch plow began to spread to northern Europe. This plow was designed with a short sharpened wooden stake, making shallow scratchy furrows well suited to dry Mediterranean soil. In contrast, Northern European soils were waterlogged and dense in clay, and the scratch plow hardly made a dent in such soil. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_yield#Seed_ratio">Seed ratios</a> in the early Middle Ages were abysmal, something like 2:1. </p>

<p>With the introduction of the Moldboard Plow (aka Heavy Plow) from eastern Europe, seed ratios improved drastically. This plow was far heavier, required wheels to move, and a much deeper, metal cutting blade. </p>

<h2>Ox yokes =&gt; Horse collars</h2>

<p>Romans used oxen to till the soil. These dumb animals were easily domesticated but slow. To pull a plow, a wooden device called a yoke would sit on top of the ox and the beast would plod across the length of a field. Plots tilled by oxen were long and narrow since ox teams were so hard to turn. <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Second_order_effects_and_unintended_consequences">Second order effects and unintended consequences</a></p>

<p>Horses were much faster, but equally strong as oxen. However their anatomy was quite different from an ox, and the strap of the ox yoke would sit across the horse's neck, pressing on its windpipe. This not only reduced air supply reducing efficiency, but was also often fatal.</p>

<p>The padded horse collar was constructed with leather, and slipped over the horse's shoulders and did not cross its neck at all, allowing it to breathe freely. In addition to not causing broken windpipe related death, it increased horsepower by 5x.</p>

<h2>Water mills</h2>

<p>Romans knew about water mills, but did not build them very often. Slaves were so readily available in Rome that they could be relied on to power hand mills, a laborious and incredibly boring process of manually turning a crank. But as agricultural slavery was replaced by serfdom, European rivers become the new laborers.</p>

<h2>...Crop rotation</h2>

<p>Not mentioned in the lecture, but the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-field_system">Three Field System</a> of crop rotation seems to have emerged around the same time, and made big improvements to crop yields. The core insight there was that  Cereal crops deplete the ground of nitrogen, but legumes can fix nitrogen and so fertilize the soil. So one plot would be used for cereals, another for legumes, and the third to replenish itself, rotating every year.</p>

<h1>Those who fought</h1>

<p>In early Middle Ages knights were thugs. But they became increasingly legitimate in their power. As merchants became increasingly affluent and more of them wanted to join the ranks of the knights, there was a problem of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Elite_overproduction">Elite overproduction</a>.  The fighting class (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Three_Orders">The Three Orders</a>) became so numerous that money alone stopped being enough to join. Now to be dubbed a knight you needed to prove that your bloodline was noble.</p>

<p>After the collapse of the Carolingian empire in the 9th century, noble infighting soared to dangerous highs. The church attempted to curtail this trend by designating days and periods in the calendar as peaceful through programs such as the Peace and Truce of God. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Courtesy_book">Courtesy Books</a> were uninteresting lists written in Latin and ultimately fell on deaf ears, or into the hands of largely illiterate ruling class. These attempts did little to curtail noble violence.</p>

<h2>Chivalric Romances</h2>

<p>Chaplains were clergy members in the courts of noblemen. They were the most worldly of the clergy class and could thus find ways to appeal to the fighting class. The approach that worked turned out to be the new literary genre of Chivalric Romances, around 13th century. These were stories that depicted heroic knights on great adventures of love and conquest. The chivalric code insisted on romantic love with a woman in order to “civilize” a knight and encourage good deeds. </p>

<p>Chrétien de Troyes wrote simple stories exploring the balance between fighting and loving. In some, the hero focused too much on loving his wife and lost status in the field, causing his wife to leave him. In others, he focused too much on conquest at the expense of his relationship. Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. Lancelot is a more complex classic, who had an extramarital affair with Arthur’s wife Gwyn.</p>

<h2>Tournaments</h2>

<p>Early tournaments around the 11th century evolved from free-for-all mounted melees taking place on large swaths of territory. They were not aimed explicitly at killing but at capture, but the structure was so loose that all bets were off. Action occurred with real weapons, and had real impacts on innocent bystanders, as well as other externalities. Crops were trampled, houses burned, peasants murdered. Not to mention the large death toll among the fighters. </p>

<p>King and clergy attempted to ban tournaments outright, but failed Instead, they evolved and became more formalized, converging to the 1-on-1 jousting matches with dulled lances and a barrier wall to prevent head on collisions. Knights that broke with chivalric norms, speaking ill of women or hurting the helpless, were disinvited from such gatherings. </p>

<h2>Feudalism</h2>

<p>A special relationship between members of the fighting class began to emerge: lord and vassal. A rising knight could swear an oath of fealty to a lord and become his vassal. This relationship involved rights and responsibilities:</p>

<ul>
<li>The lord gave his vassal a fief, usually a plot of land that the vassal would manage and collect income from. The lord would defend the vassal from harm.</li>
<li>The vassal would come to the lord's aid, usually in a military campaign. The vassal would also give advice to the lord, if the lord requested it.</li>
</ul>

<p>Gradually, fiefs became hereditary. Eventually vassals began swearing fealty to multiple lords. The concept of liege lord was introduced to indicate the main lord that you are sworn to, but vassals would just swear fealty to multiple liege lords. People are awesome!</p>

<h1>Those who worked</h1>

<p>The status of ordinary folk generally improved during the period of 1000-1300. Agricultural slavery faded out and was replaced by serfdom. Most peasants of the time were serfs working for a lord, sometimes a noble, and sometimes a bishopric or monastery. As serfs, they owed their lord seigneurial obligations, meaning they had to till the land for free some number of days a week.</p>

<p>Serfdom gradually became less onerous and less common. Serfs that spent a year in a city would automatically become free, and many would escape in this manner. Lords would treat their serfs better to avoid losing their unpaid workforce entirely. More of the population moved into towns.</p>

<p>Townspeople were split into populo grosso (fat people), consisting of merchants and landlords and populo minuto (little people), consisting of artisans and farmers. </p>

<p>During periods of heightened violence, towns formed communes, associations of mutual defense which attempted to maintain peace, militia style. These associations were led by elected Consuls, elected for a set term, often a year. Consuls judged when members of the commune were injured, and decided when to exact vengeance.</p>

<p>A town would have one commune, but each trade was governed by its own guild: the bakers, the dyers, etc. To practice a trade you needed to belong to the guild. Guilds enforced the quality of work produced by its members and standardized production and distribution of goods to ensure that nobody had an unfair advantage.</p>

<h1>Those who prayed</h1>

<p>Secular clergy: priests headed by a bishop at a bishopric.
Regular clergy: monks headed by an abbot at a monastery.</p>

<p>Most monasteries were based on a Benedictine laws which were focused on austerity. In practice, many of these laws were bent and broken, especially by orphans and retirees, and others that found themselves in monasteries for reasons outside their own control. Monks could not own property of any sort, at least in theory. But in practice this was often not the case. Monasteries themselves were often rich, beneficiaries of large donations from non-monks as alms, with donors hoping to offset their misdeeds.</p>

<h2>Attempts at reform</h2>

<p>At various points monastic reforms were attempted to bring monasteries closer to their platonic ideal. Two ecclesiastical reform movements stand out, often for the cruelty gave their abbots: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluniac_Reforms">Cluniacs</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cistercians">Cistercians</a>. But these reverted to the mean within a couple of centuries. </p>

<p>Franciscans took a different route, insisting on a new kind of monk that does not belong to a monastery at all. Instead he must own nothing and beg for alms, mimicking the life of the apostles. They were led by St. Francis of Assisi (1181-1226), who had pretty intense views. St. Francis did not permit his followers to store up money or provisions for a rainy day, since this indicated a lack of faith. Eventually the Franciscans were recognized by the papacy and their hard-line stances diluted.</p>

<p>The Gregorian movement attempted to reform the secular clergy. It enforced priestly celibacy, which had become uncommon. Simony, the practice of buying bishopric or abbotal appointments, was banned again. It was already illegal, but often eluded in practice. These reforms largely failed, sowing seeds for popular discontent with the church.</p>

<h2>Freethinkers and heretics</h2>

<p>As lay people became more literate, they began reading the Bible themselves and coming to their own conclusions. Literacy was highest in urban areas, where merchant class needed to be numerate and literate to do their work. (TODO: what was the actual spread of writing like over time and space? Has this been mapped in detail?)</p>

<p>This combination led to high rates of heresy, self described Christians that challenged the basic tenets of the faith. </p>

<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catharism">Cathars</a> had a different take on Christianity. Cathars believed that the good God was the God of the New Testament, creator of the spiritual realm, whereas the evil God was the God of the Old Testament, creator of the physical world whom many Cathars identified as Satan. This was against the teachings of the church and they were labeled heretics. Waldenzians, followers of Peter Waldo shared a similar fate.</p>

<h2>Inquisition</h2>

<p>During the episcopal inquisition, bishops were asked to double down on the task of ensuring purity of belief of those in their bishopric, weeding out heretics. But many bishops resided in Rome or Paris and not in their bishopric. And bishops were generally very important and busy individuals.</p>

<p>When this failed, professional inquisitors were hired instead. Many of these were taken from the Franciscan and Dominican orders, already used to traveling and begging for alms. These inquisitors would go from village to village and ask the local priest to gather the residents together. The inquisitors were then trained to try to extract as much information as possible. Those that volunteered dirt on their fellow villagers early on would be rewarded with lighter sentences.</p>

<p>Torture by this point was common in Medieval justice. Inquisitors were allowed to use it too, but could not cause bloodshed, mutilation or death. When a subject was found guilty of heresy, they might be forced to wear a yellow cross on their clothing for the rest of their life. Or they would be handed over to the secular authorities to be burned alive.</p>

<h1>Jews of the High Middle ages</h1>

<p>As mentioned ad nauseam in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Thirteenth_Tribe_by_Arthur_Koestler">The Thirteenth Tribe by Arthur Koestler</a>, Jews were often expelled from kingdoms. I even made a list of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/History_of_Jewish_Expulsions">History of Jewish Expulsions</a>.</p>

<p>Why? It was an easy way for kings to make quick money. They would seize Jewish assets and take ownership of all outstanding loans. But this would disrupt the economy, so these measures were often reverted quickly. </p>

<p>Jews were also forced to wear a badge (star, circle, etc) or a conical cap. Visual indicators were also forced on other minorities, like heretics (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathar_yellow_cross">yellow cross</a>), prostitutes (yellow dress?), and lepers (rattle, clapper). Jews liked the privacy of living in their own enclaves, but the badges were universally hated. It made Jews visible targets of pogroms. The distinguishing badges could sometimes be removed by paying the sovereign a fee. The king would then annul this deal and force Jews to pay again, another money making scheme.</p>

<p>Especially dangerous times for Jews:</p>

<ul>
<li>Crusades would often trigger local pogroms, as echoes of holy war would resonate at home.</li>
<li>Easter sometimes saw accusations of blood libel, where Jews were accused of crucifying a Christian child gone missing from a village. No coincidence too with Christ’s death. Blood libel was only a popular belief, never an official position. </li>
</ul>

<p>During the high Middle Ages 1000-1300 prosperity increased but so did anti Jewish violence. </p>

<h1>Intellectual progress</h1>

<p>Monk style education involved rote memorization and recitation. There was no space for intellectual activity because it would open up the possibility of heresy. </p>

<h2>Scholastic philosophers</h2>

<p>Scholastic movement: beginning a tradition of comparison of multiple sources with the goal of synthesizing two seemingly incompatible perspectives into something coherent. Through valiant hoop jumping they seemed to be able to get to an interesting equilibrium. </p>

<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Abelard">Abelard</a> was an early famous Scholastic with a colorful but gruesome story. He began a tradition of debate, with explicit reliance on old texts - bible and derived works (eg. St. Augustine), but also blended it with the pagan philosophers like Aristotle and Plato.</p>

<p>Classic philosophers were accessible thanks to Islamic preservation efforts, especially the work of Ibn Rushd of Al-Andulus (Averroes). (Why was he not mentioned in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Lost_Enlightenment_by_Frederick_Starr">Lost Enlightenment by Frederick Starr</a>? Seems like that book devoted no time at all to Al-Andulus, just the caliphate centered at Baghdad.)</p>

<p>Scholastic practices were criticized and censored by the church. Their reliance on reason was seen as having excess hubris. Who are they to think that they can contribute something worthy of the great ancient thinkers? Also their reliance on Aristotle and Islamic commentaries and insufficiently on the Bible was seen as problematic. Indeed Aristotle directly contradicted church dogma on some issues. According to Aristotle,</p>

<ol>
<li>The world is eternal, never created</li>
<li>There are no souls, only a collective soul</li>
<li>There is one God greater than the other Gods, but he is not omnipotent or omniscient</li>
</ol>

<p>The church attempted to censor Aristotle but ultimately failed. Some Scholastic philosophers were accused of “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_truth">double truth</a>” or of arriving at two different conclusions on an issue depending on whether they considered from a Christian or an Aristotelian perspective.</p>

<p>The most prominent scholastic scholar, St. Thomas Aquinas, a Dominican friar was canonized shortly after his death, illustrating the church's capitulation. Aquinas blended rationalism into Christianity. His magnum opus "Summa Theologica" contained five proofs for the existence of God.</p>

<p>According to Aquinas, there are several ways in which God wills actions. He directly wills the good, indirectly wills evil consequences of good things, and only permits evil. Aquinas held that in permitting evil, God does not will it to be done or not to be done.</p>

<h2>Early Universities</h2>

<p>Strange sub-plot with early universities. The first two universities in Europe were in Paris and in Bologna. </p>

<p>Students of universities were called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clerici_vagantes">Clerici vagantes</a> or vagabundi, Latin for wandering clergy. They were considered to be part of the secular clergy, and subject to special privileges as a result. No one was allowed to physically harm them; they could only be tried for crimes in an ecclesiastical court, and were thus immune from any corporal punishment. Students took advantage of this and broke secular laws with impunity, engaging in theft, rape, and murder. </p>

<p>One side effect of students as clergy was that under Canon Law, women could only be part of the regular clergy (nuns), but not part of the secular clergy, so were banned outright from universities.</p>

<h1>The First Crusade</h1>

<p>Pilgrimages had been a common practice in Christendom, and increasingly Jerusalem was seen as as destination for penitential pilgrimage. Holy war also had precedents: clergy had previously sponsored battles in which death was linked to salvation.</p>

<p>Crusaders were both pilgrims and holy warriors. This was a brilliant innovation which made the proposition extremely attractive to many people. Pilgrimage was dangerous, but here you were armed to the teeth and could fend for yourself. If you died en route, you would die as a holy warrior. However if you arrived at your destination, you would have fulfilled the pilgrimage. To sweeten the deal, crusaders were given plenary indulgences, remission of all penalties that resulted from sin. Win-win-win!</p>

<p>Crusades were declared by popes, and often for political reasons. The first crusade came shortly after the schism in the papacy. In this schism 1054, numerous disagreements between the Byzantines and the pope came to a head. Two sides failed to come to an agreement and severed ties. Shortly thereafter, the Byzantines were crushed by an Arab invasion. The sitting western pope wanted to try to reunite the church and offered military aid to the east in the form of the first crusade.</p>

<h2>Popular crusade</h2>

<p>The first part of the first crusade was led by common people. Many of these crusaders took a detour to first kill a bunch of Jews and loot their stuff in order to finance the trip to Jerusalem. This was done partly from sheer anti-semitism and holy war fervor, but partly from Millenarian convictions that the world would soon end, and that the ends to their salvation justified the means. </p>

<p>When this first wave of crusaders arrived to rendezvous with Byzantine forces, they arrived earlier than expected, were ill-equipped and hungry. This led to skirmishes among the Christians of the east and the west. Eventually those Popular Crusaders that survived were slaughtered by the Seljuk Turks in Asia Minor.</p>

<h2>Baron's crusade</h2>

<p>A colorful story, this time about the adventures of crusading knights of noble rank. About 7000 departed from various European kingdoms organized in loose bands under a variety of local leaders. When they arrived at Constantinople to rendezvous with the Byzantines they were not greeted kindly by the Byzantine king Alexios I. Having just been ravished by the people’s crusade he did not trust the westerners and insisted they sign a treaty to ensure territories recently owned by Byzantines would be returned to them. </p>

<p>First taking <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Nicaea">Nicaea in 1097</a>, then <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Antioch">Antioch in 1098</a>, joint Crusader-Byzantine forces marched toward Jerusalem. However these victories only further eroded relations between east and west. The crusaders took Antioch, and left no prisoners, and their leader Bohemond decided to keep the city for himself, breaching the oath he swore to Alexios. Multiple waves of Muslim reinforcements attempted to take back the city, besieging the crusaders. The crusading knights nearly perished from famine. </p>

<p>A lowly priest named Peter Bartholomew had a vision wherein St. Andrew came to him and told him that the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Lance">Holy Lance</a> was in Antioch. Enthralled by this, the crusaders began to dig in the cathedral in search for the Holy Lance. Initially coming up empty, Peter joined in the digging and found the object he was looking for, which boosted morale significantly. After fasting for 5 days, the already famished knights sortied out of the garrison with Raymond of Toulouse at the head, carrying the Holy Lance. Despite his general's suggestions, the Turkish commander decided to let all of the knights exit the city walls before engaging them in battle. Soon the Muslim troops were in panicked retreat.</p>

<p>After several months of rest at Antioch, a decimated crusading army set out for the ultimate goal Jerusalem in 1099. Another priest, Peter Desiderius had a vision: if the crusaders circumscribed the Jerusalem walls barefoot, the city would fall within nine days. Befuddled defenders spared these erratic barefoot knights. Sure enough, Jerusalem fell in seven days. This is shocking given an invading force of 1500 against city walls. Unmentioned in the lecture was the fact that an additional 10,000 infantrymen came as reinforcements via Jaffa. Using wood from the boats, Genoese engineers built two huge siege towers (called Malvoisin or "Bad Neighbors"), catapults and a battering ram. Eyewitnesses reported gruesome crusading with the entire population of the city indiscriminately murdered. </p>

<p>This first crusade marked a turning point in European standing on the world stage, previously clearly inferior to their more technological and culturally developed Muslim neighbors. </p>

<h1>Norman conquest — meanwhile in England</h1>

<p>The next few lectures were a review of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Story_of_Medieval_England">The Story of Medieval England</a>, but the enlarged scope of this lecture made for some new insights.</p>

<p>The Normans were partly Franks but also partly descendants of north men, Vikings that were invited to settle in western France by the Franks in an attempt to prevent other Vikings from raiding and pillaging. </p>

<p>Vikings seem to have settled often despite their reputation. They were a key genetic component to the Russian (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Thirteenth_Tribe_by_Arthur_Koestler">The Thirteenth Tribe by Arthur Koestler</a>), French, and English people.</p>

<ul>
<li>Exchequer an early accountant system in England. The name comes from the checkered board in which counters representing debts were moved around.</li>
<li>Domesday book: is this something where age rounding has been analyzed? Might be a cool baseline. Sadly, doesn't appear to include ages, according to the data in https://opendomesday.org/.</li>
<li>How can I find digitized versions of early censuses? <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Age_Heaping_and_Numeracy">Age Heaping and Numeracy</a></li>
</ul>

<p>After the Norman conquest, there was an interesting dynamic between England and France. The French speaking Normans that conquered England were vassals to the French king. As a result, William the conqueror and his descendants like Henry II were both feudal subordinates and equals to the French kings. Things got especially weird when the English monarchs controlled large tracts of France (called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angevin_Empire">Angevin Empire</a>) through strategic marriages. </p>

<h1>Meanwhile in France</h1>

<p>By 987 France was being raided by Magyars, Vikings, and Arabs. The kings were no longer able to retain power. Aristocrats rebelled and split the Carolingian kingdom into smaller units. The subsequent dynasty that takes over is led by Hugh Capet, first of the Capetians. Under their watch France further fragmented into duchies and beyond. But the dynasty's lineage continued despite the fragmentation. This continuity helped prevent civil wars which usual meant bad news for the ruling family. </p>

<p>Learning from the mistakes of the Merovingians and Carolingians, the Capetians changed their succession style. The practiced anticipatory succession and picked an heir before your death. Rather than splitting the kingdom between all of the king's sons, the firstborn was given the kingdom, and his brothers received Appenages (see <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Primogeniture_vs_partible_inheritance">Primogeniture vs partible inheritance</a>).</p>

<p>Eventually Louis VI the Fat began to try and assemble the disintegrated French kingdom. He retakes Île-de-France in relentless military attacks against the castellans that resided there. This became the base for expansion, a place to reimpose authority on rebel lords. </p>

<p>The Capetians waited patiently for opportunities to retake their holdings. They would buy out barons that went bankrupt. They would annex the duchy of a dead duke with no clear heirs.</p>

<p>Phillip II Augustus was the best known king in the Capetian dynasty, an unlikely ruler. Compared to his contemporary Richard Lionheart, he was not much of a warrior, shunning crusading. Instead, he focused on trying to recover French lands that were now in English hands due to the Angevin Empire. At first, he tried to turn King John against his brother Richard but his scheme failed. Finally he decided to exploit the feudal relationship with English kings. He summoned John to nominally resolve a dispute between John and one of his French vassals. When John failed to show up, Philip declared his vassal John Lackland's possessions in the European continent forfeit. </p>

<p>Philip begins repossessing English lands on the continent. First he took Normandy, then Anjou. John forms an alliance with German king Otto of Brunswick. In 1214, a joint English-German invasion of France begins to try to retake back the Angevin lands. Philip II defeats Otto at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bouvines">Battle of Bouvines</a>. Upon seeing the Germans crushed, John retreats fearing a similar fate. This confirms Philip's reconquest, leaving just a small region in the French southwest under English control. </p>

<p>Around the same time, the pope declared a crusade against the south of France known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albigensian_Crusade">Cathar Crusade</a>. Supposedly those in the south were harboring Cathar heretics and thus needed to be cleansed, one of the major cities harboring them was Carcassonne. This was a twenty year affair, extremely bloody. Overall this led the decentralized French political system (discussed in early Middle Ages), further damaged by English conquest, to centralize again under a powerful king. See <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Decentralization_and_Centralization_cycles">Decentralization and Centralization cycles</a></p>

<h1>England's Canterbury Debacles</h1>

<p>A bit more review of <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/The_Story_of_Medieval_England">The Story of Medieval England</a>, but Thomas Beckett's story is truly fascinating. Appointed as Archbishop of Canterbury by Henry II, Thomas Beckett, personal friend of the king quickly turns on him. Rather than buttressing royal power as expected by Henry, Beckett strongly criticized the corrupt system of royal ecclesiastical appointments. His subversion exiles him to Paris for 6 years, but upon returning, Beckett continues as before. Apocryphally, Henry II asks “will no one rid me of this pesky priest?”, whereupon four of his knights travel to Canterbury and kill Beckett in cold blood in his own cathedral. Beckett is quickly canonized and Henry II pays the price both in PR and by being embarrassingly lashed by monks.</p>

<p>Henry II's son John is also tied up by a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canterbury_election_of_1205">long quarrel at Canterbury in 1205</a>: after the prior archbishop dies, the monks elected a new one, egged on by a doctrine of Papal Supremacy. This is legal but not how the English king liked it — it was normally an appointment in practice. John refuses the election and instead pressured the monks to select his preferred candidate. They agreed to this but the two archbishop candidates both insisted on their legitimacy. As a result the papacy intervenes and insists that both candidates are invalid and that a third archbishop be selected. John refuses this and the pope declares an interdict, a sort of clerical strike in which only key services like baptisms are done. This lasts 6 years and John finally gives in when Innocent III begins to support John's deposition. Ultimately the pope's candidate Stephen Langton becomes Archbishop of Canterbury. Throughout this long period, King John does nothing to retake English possessions retaken by Phillip II, giving him time to prepare.</p>

<p>English barons in France were in a weird position: are they now loyal to France, or to England? They pressured John Lackland to retake the lands. Finally after the botched English-German attack on France, the English barons rebel. They take London and force John to accept the Magma Carta. </p>

<h1>Magna Carta</h1>

<p>A lot of the Magma Carta contains detailed articles that were designed to limit the king's power. Article 39 had more longstanding relevance to us, imposed formal legal restraints on royal will, declaring that no action detrimental to a free man’s life, limb or property was to be taken without a prior judgment in a lawfully constituted court. Within a year John rejects the Magna Carta and then promptly dies. His son Henry III accepts it and has a long reign, paving the path toward a fledgling parliament.</p>

<p>Henry III used the parliament to seek financial aid. The Barons agreed but pushed back, insisting on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisions_of_Oxford">Provisions of Oxford</a>, which gave a group of barons representation in the king's government. The king would gather and consult Great Councils on occasion. These would sometimes include commoners as well as barons. Initially mostly to collect money, these gradually became more formalized in time, soon were done thrice a year. </p>

<p>Despite all this turmoil, 13th century England had a strong and stable monarchy, at least compared to France and Germany. This led barons to really push back on the monarchy and lobby for more power. This led to rudimentary checks and balances and eventually English Common Law. In weaker states, there was less need for these balances since the king was already weak. Thus when countries like France centralized again, their monarchs became extremely powerful, their power unchecked.</p>

<h1>Meanwhile in Germany</h1>

<p>Holy Roman emperors in the territory of Germany had done well for themselves while France was fallen apart into smaller pieces. These Teutonic rulers held a firm grasp on the church through the practice of investiture, in which kings appointed important abbots and bishops. </p>

<h2>Investiture controversy</h2>

<p>Popes had extra leverage over Holy Roman Emperors since the pope was the only individual allowed to crown an emperor, a tradition that went back to Constantine. As part of Gregorian reforms, pope Gregory VII decided to take action against investiture. He terminated a group of imperially appointed bishops in Italy (part of the Holy Roman Empire). In response, Emperor Henry IV wrote a letter denouncing the pope and calling for his resignation. To which Gregory responded, I’m not fired — you’re fired. He excommunicated and deposed Henry IV. German elites then took advantage of the mess, and decided to rebel against their ruler. As a result, Henry IV rushed back to Rome to apologize to the pope. </p>

<p>The apology led to a temporary truce, but it was clear to the pope that it was not a sincere apology. Also, the German aristocracy was not done rebelling. They declare an alternative candidate, Rudolph as German King. Three years later, Gregory VII declared his support for Rudolph and excommunicated Henry IV. In response, Henry IV declares a new pope and lays siege to Rome with the intent of forcibly replacing the current pope with his candidate known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipope_Clement_III">Antipope Clement III</a>. Pope Gregory VII comes close to death as Henry IV takes Rome in 1084, but is saved by an army of Normans that the pope calls on for help. They arrive and force Henry to retreat, but in their zeal <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Rome_(1084)">plunder Rome</a>.</p>

<p>Eventually several imperial generations later, a truce is reached under the Concordat of Worms (pronounced Verms). This compromise ends the practice of investiture but allows an imperial representative to weigh in on clerical elections. The German kingdom loses power and standing. Enterprising aristocrats use this opportunity to build castles and otherwise entrench their own power base, similar to what happened in France centuries earlier.</p>

<p>The Ottonian dynasty doesn’t fare as well as the Capetians. Overall Henry IV reign shows the weakness of Germany in the 13th century.</p>

<ul>
<li>too dependent on their aristocracy, who were keen to take advantage of any weakness.</li>
<li>too dependent on the papacy, leading to crusades being launched against the Holy Roman Empire.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Collapse of the Holy Roman Empire</h2>

<p>Frederic II was a famous member of the Hohenstaufen dynasty. The end of his reign marks the point of complete disintegration of the Holy Roman Empire. Frederick's contemporaries called him stupor mundi, the "astonishment of the world".</p>

<p>Born in Sicily, Frederic II was fluent in Arabic. He was well read and even wrote books about hawking. Early in his reign he went on crusade, took a vow to participate or risked excommunication, by then a common issue between kings of Germany and popes. He fell ill (or may have pretended to do so) on his voyage to Jerusalem. The pope promptly excommunicated him and prevented him from continuing the crusade until excommunication was lifted. However, to lift excommunication, pope Gregory IX requested a small gift: Sicily.</p>

<p>Frederic II ignored all of the above and continued on to Jerusalem. Taking advantage of Muslim infighting of the time, he secured Jerusalem for Christendom through diplomacy alone. However the pope was resentful, calling Frederic preambulus Antichristi and denied this treaty. Instead, a papal army marched on Sicily. Frederic was not greeted warmly in Jerusalem by fellow Christians because of an interdict. Frederic II returned quickly to Sicily to quash the papal forces. </p>

<p>A tentative peace breaks out for a decade. Pope Gregory IX, then his successor Innocent IV called for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Crusade">a crusade against Frederic II</a>. Crusaders with vows to the east are allowed to change course to fight Frederic II instead. Some of his own subjects turn against him. Civil wars rage beyond Frederic II's death in 1250, and Germany disintegrates further. The papacy denies election of further members of the Hohenstaufen dynasty. The result is a final decimation of the Holy Roman Empire into a loose confederacy with an elected emperor. </p>


        
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    <title>Thirteenth Tribe</title>
    <author><name>Boris Smus</name></author>
    <link href="https://smus.com/books/thirteenth-tribe"/>
    
    <updated>2021-04-30T09:00:00-00:00</updated>
    
    <id>https://smus.com/books/thirteenth-tribe</id>
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        <p>When I came across The Thirteenth Tribe, I knew that the stars had aligned. I just finished <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Early_Middle_Ages">Early Middle Ages</a> and really enjoyed <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Darkness_at_Noon_by_Arthur_Koestler">Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler</a> by Arthur Koestler. </p>

<p>The first half of the book focuses on the facts. Who were the Khazars? Who were the Rus? Where did these people come from? How did they interact with dominant Byzantines, Ummayads, Abassids? It's super readable and more engaging than prior lectures on the subject matter. That said, I feel that having listened to <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Early_Middle_Ages">Early Middle Ages</a> was a bit of a prerequisite. It would have been too hard to keep track of the major players otherwise.</p>

<p>In contrast, the remainder of the book is way more speculative. Koestler seems to have started with a thesis: Ashkenazi Jews are Khazars. A narrative then is carefully constructed gather the relevant evidence. However given that this is all set in Dark Ages, the facts are inherently sparse and shrouded in uncertainty. </p>

<h1>Conversion and neutrality</h1>

<p>The Khazars converted to Judaism because choosing Christianity or Islam would put them under the authority of either Baghdad or Constantinople. Their decision to convert may have been mostly a pragmatic one on these grounds. Reminds me of that quote attributed to Napoleon:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>"It is by making myself Catholic that I brought peace to Brittany and Vendée. It is by making myself Italian that I won minds in Italy. It is by making myself a Moslem that I established myself in Egypt. If I governed a nation of Jews, I should reestablish the Temple of Solomon."</p>
</blockquote>

<p>The Khazars adopted Hebrew script too. Some Hebrew letters, ש and צ made it into Cyrillic as ш and ц, after St. Cyril learned their language in Crimea.</p>

<p>Becoming a neutral territory meant that those fleeing forced conversion in Christendom and Islam world had a natural safe haven. Many Greek pagans and their rich classical traditions found their way to Khazaria. So did many Jews of the diaspora. </p>

<p>The conversion is chronicled by a Khazar king Joseph, in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khazar_Correspondence">an exchange of letters</a> with Hasdai ibn Shaprut, a Jewish doctor living in Al-Andalus (modern Spain). In his response, Joseph recounts the Khazar conversion story. After dropping idolatry, King Bulan, sometime in the 8th century needed to choose between the three dominant religions. He gathered a panel of representatives and asked each separately which of the other two religions were least wrong. Judaism won by elimination, since both Christian and Muslim had greater affinity to it than to one another.</p>

<p>The Khazars seem to have been karaiites, meaning that they rejected the rabbinical teachings completely, and only followed the Torah. Meanwhile the rest of the diaspora, concentrated largely in Baghdad and large cities in Al-Andalus like Cordoba, practiced rabbinical Judaism, with a Gaon at the head.</p>

<h1>How Khazaria worked</h1>

<p>The Khazars were a Turcik people ruled by a system of dual kingship. The Khagan was the nominal ruler and figurehead. Menawhile the general executive and military general was called the Khagan Bek. Upon end of reign the Khagan was ritually killed.</p>

<p>Khazaria was a buffer state situated between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, shielding the Byzantine Empire from both Vikings and Arabs. </p>

<p>Perhaps there's a map in the printed version of this book, but I listened to it and found myself floundering a bit on the geography front. Embarassingly I found it hard to keep all of the rivers (Volga, Dniepr, Don, Ural) straight. I spent a bit of time and put <a href="https://borismus.github.io/central-asia-maps/">all the things on a map</a>, including two major cities, Atil the capital, and Sarkel, the remains of which were flooded by the Soviets in the 1950s.</p>

<h1>Varangians and Khazar decline</h1>

<p>The Varangians were Vikings. In the 9th century, they set out on large expeditions with the goal of raiding, trading, and sometimes a combination of both - "forced trade", as Koestler politely puts it. A typical raiding party would be composed of 500 longships of 100 people each. Vikings didn't usually establish permanent settlements outside of their traditional territories, but the Varangians were an exception.</p>

<p>When this group of vikings moved into the territory of modern Ukraine and Russia, they settled down near Kiev and became known as the Rus. They intermingled with native Slavs. Olga is Helga, Oleg is Helgi. Ivan, Ingvarr. Vladimir, Valdamarr. Mind, Blown.</p>

<p>Early Kievan Rus was a shit show. After Igor son of Rurik was killed by a tribe of Slavs called the Drevlians, his wife Olga exacted sweet revenge on them. Igor and Olga had a son, Sviatoslav, who was also a military hero and legendary warrior. Their children caused a civil war for succession. As Koestler would have us think, most of these early Rus regends tended to lead debaucherous lives and then convert to Christianity on their death bed. Some to be subsequently canonized. </p>

<p>Vladimir, son of Sviatoslav decided it was time to pick a religion. He did so in a Khazar-like fashion. Summoning delegation of representatives. The result is described by the chronicler Nestor:</p>

<ul>
<li>Of the <strong>Muslim</strong> Bulgarians of the Volga the envoys reported there is no gladness among them, only sorrow and a great stench. He also reported that Islam was undesirable due to its taboo against alcoholic beverages and pork. Vladimir remarked on the occasion: "Drinking is the joy of all Rus'. We cannot exist without that pleasure."</li>
<li>Ukrainian and Russian sources also describe Vladimir consulting with <strong>Jewish</strong> envoys and questioning them about their religion, but ultimately rejecting it as well, saying that their loss of Jerusalem was evidence that they had been abandoned by God.</li>
</ul>

<h1>Rus ⚔️ Khazars</h1>

<p>Khazaria and the Byzantines had a long standing alliance. But with price Vladimir’s conversion to orthodoxy, a union Of the Rus and Byzantine was cemented, paving the road for a joint campaign against Khazaria which was already weakened by then.</p>

<p>Additionally, the Khazars levied a 10% tax on traders going through their lands. This ticked off Viking Rus who were capable of trading and raiding.</p>

<p>Sviatoslav destroyed Sarquel and Atil. He had a reputation for having Berserkers in his ranks, from norse legend.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>"The Rus' attacked, and no grape or raisin remained, not a leaf on a branch."</p>
</blockquote>

<h1>After the Khazar empire collapsed</h1>

<p>Chronologically, first the Khazar empire fell, then new Jewish settlements began to spring up in Poland. Clearly there was some flow between one and the other, but experts disagree how much of the population came from Khazars and how much from Jews ethnically tracing back to ancient Israelites. Koestler suggests that most Jews in Poland came from the Khazar empire, while a mere trickle joined from Spain.</p>

<p>Around this time the Shtetl began to emerge in Poland-Lithuanian empire. Origin dates to the 13th century.</p>

<p>Interesting connection between the kippa and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tubeteika">Tubeteika</a>, or traditional headwear of steppe dwellers. </p>

<h1>A chronicle of suffering</h1>

<p>During the crusades, many Jews were forced to convert and many communities chose to self-immolate and die as martyrs. </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>Many Jews of Maeonce, Strasbourg, Spires, ... escaped from centers and left their posessesions to kindly Burgers.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>!<a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/History_of_Jewish_Expulsions">History of Jewish Expulsions</a></p>

<h1>Controversial conclusions</h1>

<p>According to Koestler, Khazars moved permanently west. Emigration from Poland followed the Protestant Reformation of the 16th century, which codified anti Semitic practices by forcing Jews to wear special clothing, yellow bands and conical hats. The mostly Khazar Jews fled west from Poland Lithuania into Germany France Palestine and USA.</p>

<p>A big part of Koestler's thesis is that the differences between Jews and gentiles living in the same country are much smaller than difference between Jews living in different countries. Thus he claims that there is no real such thing as a Jewish race.</p>

<p>Apparently Koestler told French biologist Pierre Debray-Ritzen he "was convinced that if he could prove that the bulk of Eastern European Jews (the ancestors of today's Ashkenazim) were descended from the Khazars, the racial basis for anti-Semitism would be removed and anti-Semitism itself could disappear".</p>

<h1>Random stuff</h1>

<ul>
<li>Realized that there were two Justinians. Justinian I was discussed in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Early_Middle_Ages">Early Middle Ages</a>, but here it's Justinian II Rhinotmetos (noseless). He lost his nose after being overthrown and sent into exile, but then came back and became Emperor again!</li>
<li>Apparently splitting a man in twain by attaching his arms to two trees and felling them was a common penalty for adultery. Poetic Justice.</li>
<li>There was a Rus invasion of Constantinople in 860, which was also described in <a class="wiki" href="https://z3.ca/Early_Middle_Ages">Early Middle Ages</a>.</li>
<li>Koestler keeps talking about "Russian Chronicle". Apparently it's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_Chronicle">Nestor's letopis</a>.</li>
<li>Matthias Mieses is an oft-cited historian. Who was he? A German-only Wikipedia entry suggests he was a historian of Yiddish.</li>
<li>Interesting analysis from the evolution perspective of Jews in the ghetto effect of them. Three things: inbreeding, genetic drift, and selection pressure.</li>
<li>The Jews spoke so many languages in the past. Very flexible and dependent on the empire they found themselves in. Koestler presents a list.</li>
<li>Interesting observation from Koestler in final appendix of Thirteenth Tribe: in his estimation, the greatest Jewish contributions are not in Yiddish and Ladino, but in German, English, French.</li>
</ul>

<p>Koestler attempted to discourage misuse of his theory by hedging extensively in the conclusion, saying that Israel's right to exist is based on the UN mandate and not on Biblical covenants or genetic inheritance.</p>

<p>Sadly, Koestler's theory has been used extensively by Arab anti-Zionists, and white supremacists alike. Anyway, the first half is great, but the remainder can be safely skipped.</p>

<p>That all said, this Khazar question is historically fascinating, shrouded in mystery, and full of people on both sides, exhibiting classic motivated reasoning. We'll see where I eventually land.</p>


        
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