South OC Real Estate Tracker

Friday closed sales report

2009-11-06T05:01:00.000-08:00

Here's a check of some properties that recently sold in South OC. By the way, if you're into Redfin and its abundance of real estate info like all the rest of us, did you know they're now posting recently sold properties (pics and all)? Assuming, that is, that their Web site recovered from all its technical issues this morning.

Let's take a look...

515 Reed St., Laguna Beach 92651
Sales price: $1,262,500
Sales date: 10-30-2009
Previous sales price: $1,239,000
Previous sales date: 10-02-2006
Change (+/-): +$23,500
Size: 2 beds / 1 baths
Listing description snippet: "Rare flat lot zoned for 2 units near the heart of downtown Laguna Village. Large parcel with street frontage and alley frontage so two separate homes would each have excellent access and parking options. Currently has an adorable vintage cottage with detached garage, so live in or have rental income while developing."

90 Matisse Circle, Aliso Viejo 92656
Sales price: $430,000
Sales date: 11-4-2009
Previous sales price: $555,000
Previous sales date: 6-16-2004
Change (+/-): -$125,000 Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,465 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Spacious floor plan, highly upgraded & model perfect! Awesome floor plan offering a huge living room with soaring cathedral ceilings, fireplace and separate dining room. Stunning kitchen with new designer granite countertops, stainless steel appliances including a brand new oven & microwave, high end bosch dishwasher, stainless steel sink, recessed lighting and breakfast bar. Powder room with upgraded granite countertop and brushed nickel faucet."

28661 Abantes, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $755,000
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Previous sales price: $1,275,000
Previous sales date: 4-19-2007
Change (+/-): -$520,000 Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 3,010 sq ft
Listing description snippet: (REO) "Spacious home with lovely upgrades. Move right in! Remodeled Kitchen with Viking Stove, cherry cabinets, granite counter. Remodeled Master bathroom with spa tub, travertine flooring, fabulous Shower and custom built-ins. All closets feature custom organizers. Premier location with the gated community of Rolling Hills."

27 Calle Verdadero, San Clemente 92673
Sales price: $590,000
Sales date: 10-31-2009 Previous sales price: $809,500
Previous sales date: 12-20-2004
Change (+/-): -$219,500
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,400 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Gorgeous Talega Home w/ tons of upgrades-4 BR & 3 Baths (One BR & Bath Down). An Elegant Master w/ Walk-in Closets, dual sinks, Separate tub & shower, Upstairs Laundry w/ Sink & Window. Custom Upgrades incl, Wrought Iron & Wood Bannister, Magnificant Cherrywood Floors..."

Smoking hot South OC markets

2009-11-05T05:26:00.000-08:00

Photo credit: Jordan Larrigan

South OC makes up four of the five "hottest" markets, according to the math of Steve Thomas. That was the headline on the OC Register real estate blog recently. Those mini markets are Foothill Ranch (1.0 months of supply), Aliso Viejo (1.0 months of supply), Lake Forest (1.1 months of supply) and Dove Canyon (1.3 months of supply).

On the other end of the spectrum we have luxury markets where there are fewer buyers, and hence, properties take longer to move. Laguna Beach was second slowest (8.5 months), lagging only CdM. Coto also made that list, ranking fifth "worst" with a market time of 7.4 months.

The more we think about the real estate market recently, the more it makes us scratch our heads. You probably heard that the movement for extending the homebuying tax credit is moving forward. And, maybe you also read about how the Fed is still keeping interest rates near zilch to help prop up the economy. With the government and other agencies working so hard to prop up housing, will true fundamentals ever return?

Nothing's changed in Laguna

2009-11-03T05:46:00.000-08:00

This Laguna Beach listing is an interesting commentary - the seller believes that a house that was "totally rebuilt" at the peak of the market should command the same price as was spent then, sans post-bubble pricing adjustment.

23 Emerald Bay, 92651
Asking price: $4,800,000

Beds:	3
Baths:	2.75
Sq. Ft.:	2,711
$/Sq. Ft.:	$1,771
Lot Size:	6,200 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Mediterranean
View:	Coastline, Ocean, Panoramic, Park/Green Belt, Water, White Water
Year Built:	2006
Community:	North Laguna
County:	Orange
MLS#:	L30699
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	77 days

From listing: House totally rebuilt in 2006. Very nice. View looks directly at Emerald Bay beach and the ocean. View cannot be blocked. Total house square footage including decks and garage is 3389 per plans.

Leave it to Emerald Bay to kick the housing bubble. There is some serious wealth in this area, but we're not sure how you would make the argument that this property is obviously worth $4.8 million while this one should be $4.5 million. At these kind of dollar amounts, it's really all about personal preference. You can expect that all the houses at this price to be nice and have nice views.

Assuming the property can be sold for the current asking price, it would mean the property has appreciated 422% in about a decade considering that it went for $920,000 in 1998. That's a rate of about 38% per year every year - pretty nice! Of course, the question is raised that if the house had not been totally rebuilt, it would not likely be worth the same amount today. So, if the sellers can find someone to pay their price, we would reason that they're coming out a winner.

Not so good in Laguna Hills

2009-11-02T08:20:00.001-08:00

Not only are a few arguing the market is past the bottom, they see what approaches double-digit appreciation by the summer. If the market as a whole went up almost 10%, and swept up this property with it, would you be willing to pay that much more for this Laguna Hills property?

24692 Julie Ave, 92653
Asking price: $649,000
Previous sales price: $395,000
Previous sales date: 8/14/00

Beds:	5
Baths:	2.75
Sq. Ft.:	2,900
$/Sq. Ft.:	$224
Lot Size:	8,125 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Modern
Year Built:	1978
Community:	Laguna Hills
County:	Orange
MLS#:	V09110998
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	17 days

From listing: Very nice beautifully maintained home with open floorplan & high ceilings, set back from the street yet has a good size backyard w/ covered patio, grassy area & side patio. A gardener's delight, landscaped yard has brick trimmed planters on both sides of the house. Freshly painted inside & out. Main level has four bedrooms including a master suite, two baths, huge living rm, dining rm w/ french doors that opens to side patio, big cheerful kitchen with newly reglazed countertop, family rm w/ fireplace that opens to covered patio, yard & spa. Dont miss the spacious suite on the 2nd level accessed thru the door to the garage. It has a living rm, huge walk-in closet and a cozy bedrm, dressing area and bathrm. The garage has room for one car, partly used for stairway access, but driveway has parking area for at least 4 more cars, plus a covered carport big enough for a boat or RV. Truly a delightful home in a great convenient location to shops and freeway access.

This is one of those that we wouldn't really want to own at any price because the property just isn't our thing. The architecture and layout is dated, plus you back to a shopping center, which backs to the freeway. Yikes.

As Redfin says, the current owners have held this property for almost a decade and are now ready to move on. To be more precise, they've already moved on as you can see from the fact that the house is empty.

If one were to look at asking price per square foot, at $224 it doesn't seem too outrageous - considering the house is 2,900 square feet. But the price tag of nearly $650k for this 30-year-old house without many frills seems like a reach.

But, if there is the appreciation predicted by First American CoreLogic (referenced at the top of this post), this property could soon be well over $700k by summer. Chuckle.

Friday closed sales report

2009-10-30T05:15:00.000-07:00

We're back once again on this Halloween Eve with a sampling of just a few of the many South OC properties to recently change hands.

31952 Pleasant Glen Rd, Trabuco Canyon 92679
Sales price: $535,000
Sales date: 10-21-2009
Previous sales price: $442,000
Previous sales date: 6-10-2003
Profit/loss: +$93,000
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,700 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Live the best of the orange county lifestyle in this beautiful home located in the wonderful community of robinson ranch. The highly upgraded 3 bedroom and 2 1/2 baths floorplan features a gourmet kitchen with granite, family room with an upgraded fireplace, soaring ceilings and many others upgrades that make this home truly turn-key."

123 Sklar St, Ladera Ranch 92694
Sales price: $376,500
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Previous sales price: $535,000
Previous sales date: 12-07-2005
Profit/loss: -$158,500
Size: 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,602 sq ft
Listing description snippet: N/A

7 Matinee Ct, Aliso Viejo 92656
Sales price: $359,900
Sales date: 10-22-2009
Previous sales price: $379,000
Previous sales date: 11-20-2003
Profit/loss: +$19,100
Size: 2 beds / 3 baths / 1,327 sq ft
Listing description snippet: N/A

25022 Wilkes Pl, Laguna Hills 92653
Sales price: $575,000
Sales date: 10-26-2009
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 2,442 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Remodeled view home on single loaded cul-de-sac. Kitchen w/granite counters and center island complete with stainless appliances. Master bedroom features retreat with fireplace. Large bedrooms and updated bathrooms.

Whacked out photos

2009-10-29T05:34:00.000-07:00

As we inch closer to Halloween, we'd like to share a couple "interesting" photos off the MLS with you. The photos are downright scary - at least as far as real estate listings go. Nobody's expecting Ansel Adams, but we do think it's realistic not to attach these kinds of photos to the listing...

From: 31578 CALLE LA PURISIMA #65, San Juan 92675. Great preview of some of the work I would have to do as a potential buyer.
From: 305 Via Presa, San Clemente 92672. So, we've established there is a window in the bathroom. Cool.
From: 136 Avenida Presidio #6, San Clemente 92672. Look, Ma! This photo tells us this place has doors and a closed closet door.
From: 14 Elk Grove, Laguna Niguel 92677. Nothing's wrong with this photo. We just think it's crazy what the stairs look like in this $6 million property.

Just don't get it

2009-10-28T05:23:00.000-07:00

There are a few things about this Ladera Ranch that leave us scratching our head. But, if Redfin says a buyer has been found and the property is in the accepting backup offers stage, we'll buy it. Figuratively, not literally.

15 Lanesboro Rd, 92694
Asking price: $675,000
Previous sales price: $560,000
Previous sales date: 5/28/03

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,768
$/Sq. Ft.:	$244
Lot Size:	5,859 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	Two Level, Spanish
View:	Has View
Year Built:	2003
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S588256
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	53 days

From listing: This Beautiful 4 Bedroom 3 Bathroom Home Is Ideally Located At The End Of A Cul-De-Sac In The Sterling Glen Tract Of Ladera Ranch. This Floor Plan Is Very Open And Has Many Windows And Doors That Offer Natural Light And Are Accented By Plantation Shutters. The Main Floor Bedroom Is Currently Being Used As An Office, However It Could Easily Be Used As The 4th Bedroom. The Large Master Suite Has A Joining Retreat Area That Could Be Converted To A 5th Bedroom If Needed. This Home Has Extensive Stone Flooring Throughout The First Level And Carpeting Up The Stairway And Into The Bedrooms. The Lush Trees And Vines In The Backyard Offer Much Privacy And Is Ideal For Entertaining Family And Friends.

We'll try to ignore the title case in the listing description if you will. At the top of this blog entry, we mentioned that a couple things with this listing confused us. In no particular order, they are:

Who in the name of Martha Stewart leaves a trailer parked in the driveway for your MLS photo?
Then, why would you make said photo with trailer the first image people see of the property?
It's generally understood that South OC real estate in general - particularly a bubble-happy pocket like Ladera Ranch - is barely clinging to 2003 pricing (at best). Why would you list your short sale property for $115,000 above the previous sales price?
As a buyer, would you jump in to buy a short sale at all?
Would you then agree to buy said short sale for well above the 2003 price?

In reality, our questions mean nothing because it appears a buyer and seller have successfully come together. Just another South OC pending sale.

Fright week begins!

2009-10-26T05:07:00.000-07:00

It's Halloween folks...you know what that means here in Southern California? It means a continuation of 80-plus degree weather and pine trees the same green color they were all year, of course!

Let's begin this week with something "scary" - at least to us. It's the prospect of paying $372 per square foot for this unremarkable-looking 2-bedroom house in Mission Viejo. Someone appears read to, considering it's in the backup offers accepted stage...

22802 La Quinta Drive, 92691
Asking price: $485,000

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,305
$/Sq. Ft.:	$372
Lot Size:	5,890 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Residential, Single Family
Style:	One Level, Contemporary
View:	Courtyard
Year Built:	1970
Community:	Mission Viejo North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S586722
Source:	CARETS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	63 days

From listing: COMPLETE CUSTOM REMODEL. .Over $150,000 in upgrades on this single story Beauty. Situated on an oversized corner lot in the heart of Mission Viejo, just down the street from Mission Viejo Lake, Seville Park, golfing & shopping. For starters, this home has a fabulous OPEN floorplan with no barrier wall between the living, dining & kitchen area + volume ceilings adding to the spaciousness. Gourmet Kitchen with every amenity a cook could ask for and then some. Granite slab counters & sinks, Gas cook top with Stainless Steel Range Hood, Custom made cabinetry & hardware with pullouts & easy glide drawers, built-in wine cooler, vegetable sink in center island with 2nd disposal. Master suite features dual closets (custom made doors), black-out shades & a luxurious master bath. OVERSIZED jetted jacuzzi tub, surrounded in Granite & custom stone/wall treatments. Step outside to a wonderful wrap around yard with custom inlaid pavers back, side, front & driveway, must see detailed pictures for more

We get the appeal of a remodeled house. But, you can get new construction in Laguna Niguel for less than $300 per square foot, we wonder whether - all things being equal - you would rather take an updated three decades old house or a totally new ... new one. Both have pluses or minuses, or course - and there's also the issue that there aren't even new houses in Laguna Niguel for this low of a price range.

We wonder just how bad this situation turned out for the current seller, considering the listing says there are more than $150,000 in upgrades, yet the 2004 sales price was $488,000 - a virtual wash. If we assume a sale for the full asking price, and only take into account $150,000 worth of upgrades, and also adjust for 6% in sales costs, this could be a loss of about $182,000.

Welcome to Lake Forest

2009-10-22T05:08:00.000-07:00

"WELCOME HOME TO THE CITY OF LAKE FOREST," the listing description shouts. We say, welcome home to your new bank-owned apart-condo. If there's any risk that the market will stay bottomed out and you'd be stuck living in this type of property for the next 7-10 years, is there any reason to jump in now?

20702 El Toro Rd #240, 92679
Asking price: $192,500
Previous sales price (bank): $222,304
Purchase date: 9/24/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	950
$/Sq. Ft.:	$203
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	1
Floor:	2
View:	Greenbelt
Year Built:	1980
Community:	Lake Forest North
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9004575
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	5 days

From listing: WELCOME HOME TO THE CITY OF LAKE FOREST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST LOCATIONS IN THE CITY, AND WE THINK ONE OF THE BEST ASSOCIATIONS IN THE AREA. THE PROPERTY IS A TWO BEDROOM TWO BATHROOM CONDO THAT FEATURES CLOSE TO 950 SQUARE FEET OF INTERIOR LIVING SPACE. THE ASSOCIATION IS FANTASTIC, IT HAS WATER FEATURES RUNNING THROUGHOUT THE COMPLEX WHICH CREATE THE FEELING OF LIVING IN A MOUNTAIN RESORT. YOU WILL ENJOY THE H.O.A POOL, AND SPA, TENNIS AND BASKETBALL. SO COME HOME TO LAKE FOREST AND START TO ENJOY THE BEST OF ORANGE COUNTY TODAY.

On the positive side, it's good to see that a property like this appears to have quickly moved through the foreclosure pipeline and that it's going to probably be unloaded quickly to a new owner. Hopefully one that doesn't pay $368,000 for this shoebox.

To give you an idea of how crazy that is, we estimate your monthly housing expense at about $2,700 per month (after mortgage principle and interest, HOA dues and property taxes and before the mortgage interest deduction, assuming 3% down with an interest rate of 5% and no PMI). After the generous government benefits to owning, your total monthly cost of ownership would be somewhere around $1,950. Really, $1,950 to live in this place?! Well, if you actually bought the property when the previous owners did, you probably used an exotic loan product to lower the monthly cost.

What few rental properties we saw offered on the MLS in this city, at this size, seem to say this property is probably rentable at about $1,300-$1,400 per month. Our back-of-the-napkin calculation with a 160 GRM target for an owner-occupant tells us this property is "worth" about $200,000. So as you can see, we're at rental parity...if you would actually consider owning this as a long-term solution. We would argue the actual GRM should be much lower, or it should be an investor who purchases this and holds and rents.

Hitting the skids in Trabuco Canyon

2009-10-20T05:37:00.000-07:00

Buy a house in Trabuco Canyon at or just past the real estate market peak. Spend $130k in upgrades. Price $160k above what you paid for the property. What could go wrong?

20592 Sycamore Road, 92679
Asking price: $685,000
Previous sales price: $525,000
Previous sales date: 11/30/06

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	2,000
$/Sq. Ft.:	$342
Lot Size:	0.51 Acres
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	2
View:	Trees/Woods
Year Built:	1954
Community:	Trabuco Canyon
County:	Orange
MLS#:	P690877
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	131 days

From listing: Over $130,000 spent in upgrades over the past 2 years-Spectacular-like a brand new home. Totally private 1/2 acre estate with tons on parking, rv access, garage w/small workshop, gated entrance w/impressive wrought iron fencing & room for at least 3 horses. Mature oaks & sycamores, creek & mountain view, reflection pond. All new dual paned windows, new wooden siding & fresh exterior paint, all new light wooden interior walls, mirrored wardrobe doors, recessed lighting, immaculate & clean. Family room enjoys granite wet bar, wood floors and a dramatic open beam ceiling, slider to patio & picture window with view of peaceful grounds. New kitchen with stainless dishwasher,refrig,microwave, gas stove, granite counters. Living/Dining Room has fabulous river rock fireplace, Spanish paver tiles. Master has separate office nook, private balcony w/mountain view, vaulted ceiling, huge bathroom w/claw-foot tub, walk-in closet. Public riding arena and trails down the street, 5 min to shopping.

This house sold for $343,500 and "only" went for around $200k more in 2006. As you can see, the current owner believes they have put enough work into the property to have it be worth even more today.

The fact that the property has been sitting on the market for four months with no price reductions says otherwise. If the property can be sold for the current asking price (not likely), and we were to subtract 6% for sales costs, the owner would be looking at a loss of about $11,000 - taking into account $130k spent on upgrades. In essence, they're looking to get out of this property for essentially breakeven.

Apart ... err.... condo REO in Aliso

2009-10-18T05:19:00.000-07:00

Do you remember when 2-bedroom apartments-turned condos went for nearly $350 per square foot in Aliso Viejo. Believe it!

23412 Pacific Park Unit 35h, 92656
Asking price: $309,900
Previous bank price: $355,200
Purchase date: 5/26/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,200
$/Sq. Ft.:	$258
Lot Size:	-
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary/Modern
Stories:	1
Floor:	2
Year Built:	2006
Community:	Aliso Viejo
County:	Orange
MLS#:	F1823093
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	4 days

From listing: REO/Bank Owned. 2 bedrooms 2 baths, central heat and air. Priced to sell fast. o This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. o Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! o This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing.

So all you have to do is put $9,297 down and you can buy this lovely REO condo using HomePath Mortage Financing. What is HomePath financing? Well, it includes "no mortgage insurance, no appraisal, low down payments, and contributions up to 6% of the purchase price."

Assuming you put just the 3% down, and you can get an interest rate of 4.75%, your payments would be around $1,565 per month. Of course, that's just the payment on the loan and is before association dues, mello roos, and lots of other home-related considerations. Check out the IHB for a nifty calculator.

It's hard to believe now, but this property sold for $419,000 just four years ago. Now, assuming the property will sell for its full asking price, it means the condo has shed 26% of its value.

Recent closed sales report

2009-10-16T05:08:00.000-07:00

Here's our latest look at some South OC properties that have recently changed hands.

81 Gaugin Circle, 92656
Sales price: $408,000
Sales date: 10-9-2009
Previous sales price: $375,000
Previous sales date: 11-20-2002
Size: 4 beds / 3 baths / 1,719 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Located in gated a community with pool and spa. This condo features two master bedrooms. First master has vaulted celings, jacuzzi tub, double sinks and a large walk in closet. Second master has a balcony with beautiful canyon and city lights view.

25022 Buckboard, Laguna Hills 9653
Sales price: $769,000
Sales date: 10-09-2009
Previous sales price: $1,100,000 (bank?)
Previous sales date: 10/09/2008
Size: 5 beds / 3 baths / 3,000 sq ft
Listing description snippet: This 5 bedrdoom fixer is ready for your ideas. Added living space and pool + horse property make this a must see. You won't find a better price in nellie gail. This home needs paint, flooring, kitchen rehab and misc repairs through out.

28001 Loretha Ln, Laguna Niguel 92677
Sales price: $820,000
Sales date: 10-5-2009
Previous sales price: $1,195,000
Previous sales date: 8-30-2005
Size: 6 beds / 3 baths / 3,300 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Elegant view home located on a cul-de-sac with many upgrades and 6 bedrooms. The home has granite counters, hardwood floors, crown molding, premium wood shutters and a spiral staircase. This is the largest plan in crestview. In a quiet area close to shopping, toll roads, community park, pool & spa. There is no mello-roos tax and low tax rate.

880 Coast View Drive, Laguna Beach 92651
Sales price: $1,950,000
Sales date: 9-28-2009
Previous sales price: $2,200,000
Previous sales date: 4-28-2004
Size: 3 beds / 4 baths / 2,537 sq ft
Listing description snippet: One million dollar price reductiion from original pricing!! One of a kind remodeled, contemporary house located just above laguna village. New york loft style living at its finest. Dramatic high ceiling, open living room with great large walls for art & floor to ceiling glass windows looking out to spectacular views of the ocean & the village below.

South OC home stats, September

2009-10-15T05:43:00.000-07:00

We realized the last time we updated DataQuick's monthly stats was July, so here we go with September, courtesy of the OC Register:

As you can see, as an area, South OC prices are down slightly compared to last year, while the amount of sales is up slightly more than the county as a whole.

REO head scratcher

2009-10-13T05:10:00.000-07:00

REOs are popular - particularly if you're a buyer with a whole lot of cash who can outbid the other prospective buyers. But it doesn't necessarily mean that REOs are a good deal. Take this example in San Clemente...

137 Avenida Adobe, 92672
Asking price: $389,000
Previous sales price: $44,687 (bank)
Previous sales date: 6/9/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,190
$/Sq. Ft.:	$327
Lot Size:	1,199 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Condominium
Style:	Contemporary/Modern
Stories:	2
Floor:	1
View:	Ocean
Year Built:	1973
Community:	San Clemente Southeast
County:	Orange
MLS#:	F1814687
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	83 days

From listing: REO/Bank Owned. Incredible location, ocean view from private balcony. Property features new paint and new carpet.

There is only one photo with the listing. The previous sales price prior to the bank repo was $500,000 in 2007 - in other words, $420 per square foot for the 25-year-old condo. Obviously, that sales price was not sustainable and now the bank is asking $111,000 below the sales price from two years ago.

But is the current asking price actually a good deal at $389,000? We seem to be programmed here in So Cal, particularly Orange County, to assume that anything below $400k is "cheap" by comparison to the many expensive properties.

But let's look at the 1999 sales price - a decade ago, this property sold for $157,000.You might believe real estate was at least a bit overpriced then, which is a fair argument. But for our sake here, we're going to assume that sales price was a totally fair price back then. For the current asking price of $389,000 to be the "true" value of the property today, the property would have had to appreciate by about 9.5% per year, every year in the past decade from 1999-2009.

Bubble or no bubble, nearly 10% per year is incredibly high. Still, we wouldn't be surprised if someone eventually steps up to buy it for (almost) that price.

Redfin: Head south for home discounts

2009-10-11T08:42:00.000-07:00

Redfin recently posted the above chart on its Orange County Sweet Digs blog as part of a roundup of where the biggest price discounts were for the month of August.

As you can see, South County is very well represented, as 7 of our areas were well above the county median of 4.6 percent. And, five of the top 7 areas in the county, as well as 7 of the top 10 most discounted areas were South County cities.

What does this tell us? It means there might be some denial working in our area, so sellers are listing higher than they can get and are later forced to reduce the price. You also need to think about some of the areas on this list - Laguna Beach, San Clemente, Coto, Dana Point - all are areas with a lot of expensive houses. It's probably also an indicator that the housing pain experienced inland has brought those prices just about as low as they are going to fall, and now it's the high-end pricing that is coming down.

Winners, now a loser in Laguna

2009-10-08T10:00:00.000-07:00

Bad timing can kill you, even if you're dealing in luxury Laguna Beach real estate.

22191 Rico Rd, 92651
Asking price: $2,190,000
Previous sales price: $2,100,000
Previous sales date: 2/4/05

Beds:	3
Baths:	4
Sq. Ft.:	3,286
$/Sq. Ft.:	$654
Lot Size:	6,180 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Mediterranean
Stories:	3+
View:	Canyon, City Lights, Coastline, Ocean, Has View, Water
Year Built:	1989
Community:	South Laguna
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9003417
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	68 days

From listing: This exquisite custom Mediterranean Villa is located within a tranquil setting, and is merely a stone s throw of everything Laguna has to offer, including fabulous dining and shopping, galleries, cultural events and the world famous Montage Resort. Revel in approximately 3,286 square feet of elegance with panoramic ocean, and coastline and views. From its soaring entry with sweeping staircase and tranquil fountain, this home evokes old world charm and grandeur. The home features private verandas and patios with a spa at the top level. Amenities include a wine cellar, exercise room and a study with wet bar. Vaulted ceilings and custom French doors throughout add to the charm, making it a true entertainer s delight!

Let's take a look at the sales history:

2005: $2,100,000
2002: $1,410,000
1999: $1,195,000
1996: $810,000

Let's look at the change in price between each of these sales:

2005: +$690,000
2002: +$215,000
1999: +$385,000

That's a pretty darn good track record when you consider the short amount of time between each of these sales. The current owner won't be so lucky, however. This property is listed as a short sale for the current asking price of $2,190,000 despite the fact that it's priced above the 2005 sales price.

"Hottest" and "Coolest" in South OC

2009-10-07T05:23:00.000-07:00

Photo courtesy OC Archives

The OC Register recently quoted another Steve Thomas report. Among the highlights...

Three South OC areas were in the top four "hottest" markets - meaning, the highest rate of home sales in the past month when compared to current homes on the market. The three areas were Portola Hills (1 month supply of houses for sale); Lake Forest (1 month supply) and RSM (1.2 months). Is there any surprise here? Not really. There are lots of cheaper homes in each of these areas.

The "coolest" markets - meaning fewest completed sales compared to the number of properties for sale? Laguna Beach and Coto made that list. Yet more evidence that higher-end properties may be next on the list for impending price declines. The big question to us is whether prices have mostly stabilized in some of the harder-hit, lower-priced areas. It's very possible, and now we could be in for that long period of stagnant prices.

Hate the Mondays!

2009-10-05T05:01:00.000-07:00

Got a bad case of the Mondays? We do too. But trust us, things could be worse. Much worse...

You could be the bagholder on this Laguna Niguel property that's in the "backup offers accepted" stage. Previous sales price in 2004 was $750k. Latest asking price was $610,000. Upgrades and features include "LARGE STONE FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. BUILT IN SPEAKERS, PANORAMIC VIEW OF HILLS, TREETOPS & CITY LIGHTS. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORING, REMODELED GUEST BATH. MASTER SUITE WITH VIEWS. SMOOTH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, CUSTOM PAINT COLORS."

You could be the decorator assigned to take care of this San Juan property. Notice the minty green theme throughout the unit. It's even on the white and green awnings out front.

And in the garage. Last asking price was $274,900, currently accepting backup offers. Sorry, you're too late!

Or, for today's grand finale, you could be the person who has to explain why this San Juan mansion near Marbella should be sold for $12.5 million after being originally listed for $15 million.

Everything about this place screams "ridiculous," from the 11-car garage to the 6 ovens and 4 refrigerators and the "12-foot arched wooden garage doors, leading to a Venetian-style ballroom complete with Austrian crystal chandeliers." Let's not forget the butler's kitchen off the main kitchen, where you can cook for 500 people and serve them wine from your 1,500-bottle white wine cellar and 2,500 bottle red wine cellar. Or, maybe you'd like to hang out in the "chapel" or the 15-seat theatre.

Buy a new house

2009-10-03T06:46:00.001-07:00

If you're in the market for a brand new house in South OC, your options are fairly limited unless you're looking in the $700k plus range. We recently dropped by three Shea Homes new developments in Aliso Viejo: Harbor Station and Vantis North and Vantis South.

Harbor Station is the "entry level" condo development alongside much more expensive homes near the golf course over at Glenwood. The Vantis neighborhoods are off of Aliso Viejo Parkway overlooking the Aliso Town Center.

We thought you might enjoy seeing recent price sheets for each. First, Harbor Station. These originally started in the $500s, but are now down to the $400s:

(Click on the image for a larger size)

Next, Vantis. Again, click on the image for a larger size:

For the record, we liked these Vantis units a lot better than we expected. But we don't get why more than half of these plans have tandem garages. Two-car tandem garages in the suburbs?!

In comparing these to William Lyon Homes' Ivy in Woodbury East - a fairly comparable condo-townhome development in Irvine - the biggest differences we noticed were the pricing (of course), and how the general layout of the units differed from those in Aliso.

The pricing for the Woodbury East condos is slightly below the Aliso Viejo condos, but the Aliso ones include many more standard features that feel like upgrades - granite and the option for stainless steel, black or white appliances in the kitchen; tile in bathrooms and entry ways; full size washer and dryer, etc.

We feel you'd need to spend at least double in upgrades at Ivy to get what you would want compared to what you would spend in Harbor Station or Vantis. In fact, we know this is true - a family we know is buying in Woodbury East, and we know what they're spending on upgrades. You get the Irvine address (and schools) with Woodbury East, but you'd be in a golf course community in Aliso Viejo. Both have mello roos.

The second difference is the general layout. Ivy models have smaller living space and bigger bedrooms (or they have a nice upstairs loft or office space), whereas many Aliso Viejo models have larger living space (check out the ridiculous kitchen in one of the Harbor Station plans) and they tend to have slightly smaller bedrooms. Which would you buy?

Friday listings dump

2009-10-02T05:55:00.000-07:00

Here's a sampling of the many homes to hit the market in the past week...

24131 Ankerton Dr, Lake Forest 92630
Asking price: $299,000 (backup offers accepted)
Previous sales price: $225,500
Previous sales date: 10/14/99
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,145 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Great Well-kept Single Story Home In Nice Neighborhood with NO mello-roos and a low tax base. Situated in the center of the tract. Newer roof, dual pane windows, stucco exterior and much more."

27702 Greenfield, Laguna Hills 92653
Asking price: $1,495,000
Previous sales price: $1,600,000
Previous sales date: 5/16/05
Size: 6 beds, 6 baths, 5,200 sq ft Listing description snippet: "A rare find in Nellie Gail Ranch! Beautifully remodeled and expanded Dom Perignon model with 6 bedrooms, 5 full baths and 2 powder rooms. The main level features a master bedroom suite with fireplace and three additional bedrooms."

1566 Glenneyre St, Laguna Beach 92651
Asking price: $1,295,000
Previous sales price: $1,050,000
Previous sales date: 9/24/03
Size: 2,350 sq ft
Listing description snippet: "Laguna Beach Village Triplex - Located One Block from the Beach and the Landmark, Surf & Sand Hotel. All three units are renovated 2 bedroom & 1 bathroom units."

Way short in LN

2009-09-30T05:59:00.000-07:00

Escrow dreams really do come true - even in crazy short sale situations like this one in Laguna Niguel...
7 Pacific Crest, 92677
Asking price: $1,499,000
Previous sales price: $2,065,000
Previous sales date: 5/19/06

Beds:	4
Baths:	4
Sq. Ft.:	3,300
$/Sq. Ft.:	$454
Lot Size:	8,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Contemporary
Stories:	2
View:	Ocean, Treetop, Trees/Woods, Has View
Year Built:	1994
Community:	Laguna Niguel South, South of Crown Valley, West of Niguel
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S576702
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	118 days

From listing: Highly upgraded custom home in Bear Brand Ridge. Gorgeous 24'' polished Travertine carries you throughout the first level of this designer home. Incredible attention to detail creates interest at every turn. Customized AV system wired throughout the home for almost any electronic configuration. Bathrooms finished with tumbled travertine. Spacious bonus room features hardwood floors, detailed built-ins, an arched picturesque window and connects to the massage room (4th bedroom). Sensational master suite complete with vaulted ceiling, spa-like master bath, oversized travertine shower with Hansgrohe showerheads & jet tub. Master balcony showcases ocean views. Backyard designed and maintained by Roger's Gardens. An array of backyard amenities includes a built-in Viking barbeque, 3 tranquility fountains, fire pit, covered patio with speakers and recessed lighting. Meandering path connects the front and backyard. Seller would like to sell furnishings.

The Redfin property history shows this place changing hands every year between 2001 and 2006, except for 2005. We're not sure those are actually sales, but it would make sense if we were looking at a rash of refinances - up until $2 million worth in 2006.

If that's the case, and the debt against this property is hovering somewhere around the $2 million mark today, it means the lender is going to take a $500,000 bath if and when this property makes it all the way to closing.

Slash 'n go in Ladera

2009-09-28T05:41:00.000-07:00

Here's another example of price-cutting that has led to escrow in Ladera Ranch. Like so many others, it's priced in between the 2002 price and 2004 sales prices - call it the 2003 price?

32 Sklar Street, 92694
Asking price: $425,000
Previous sales price: $645,00
Previous sales date: 6/4/04

Beds:	3
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	1,600
$/Sq. Ft.:	$266
Lot Size:	2,277 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Spanish
Stories:	2
Year Built:	2002
Community:	Ladera Ranch
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S582723
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Backup Offers Accepted
On Redfin:	68 days

From listing: This home is light and bright with granite counter tops, upgraded maple stain cabinets, wood flooring, and plantation shutters. The floor plan features inside laundry, a large linen closet, a master bedroom balcony, fireplace, attached garage, and an enclosed yard. The kitchen, dining area, and family room come together graciously and are great for entertaining. The master bedroom has two closets and the master bath has an oversized tub, separate shower, and dual sinks. The property is close to schools, recreational facilities, and shopping

This property sold for $294,000 in 2002 and almost $650,000 in 2004. We wouldn't be surprised if this property was "valued" at up to $700,000 at the peak because of the comps.

Either way, the former owners who held the property for those two magical years made out to the tune of 45.7% appreciation per year, and made off with about $350,000 in profit before sales costs and any additional money they spent on the house. Imagine if they financed all of virtually all of the purchase price...their return would have been off the charts.

Now, we expect a loss in the range of about $240,000, assuming 6% sales costs and that the property can close for the latest asking price. Talk about a property that went from boom to bust.

Big fat asterisk in Capo Beach

2009-09-24T06:05:00.000-07:00

Would you like this REO and 2003 rollback in Capo Beach (Dana Point)? How a out if you knew it could potentially be a huge money pit?

27052 Calle Dolores, 92624
Asking price: $575,000
Previous sales price: $587,710
Previous sales date: 8/17/09

Beds:	2
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	2,291
$/Sq. Ft.:	$251
Lot Size:	4,725 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Cape Cod
Stories:	3+
Year Built:	1978
Community:	Capistrano Beach
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9004239
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	1 day

From description: THE SURF IS UP, BUT THE PRICE IS DOWN HERE AT CAPO BEACH ! WELCOME HOME TO ONE OF THE VERY BEST VALUES ON THE ORANGE COAST. THIS IS THE CITY OF DANA POINT, THE HOME TO THE WHALE FESTIVAL, THE HARBOR, AND SOME GREAT SURFING. THE PROPERTY IS A TWO BEDROOM TWO BATHROOM SINGLE FAMILY HOME THAT FEATURES CLOSE TO 2,291 SQUARE FEET OF INTERIOR LIVING SPACE, AND A LOT OF ALMOST 4,725 FEET. THE LOCATION IS GREAT, YOU ARE CLOSE TO ALL THE GREAT THINGS DANA POINT; THE BEACH, THE HARBOR, SCHOOLS, PARKS, AND SO MUCH MORE. SO COME HOME TO CAPO BEACH, AND START LIVING THE BEACH LIFESTYLE TODAY. DUE TO THE CONDITION OF THE HOME, THE BUYER SHOULD INVESTIGATE THE PROPERTY WITH PROFESSIONAL INSPECTORS. THE PROPERTY MAY, OR MAY HAVE BEEN RENOVATED OR REPAIRED DURING THE LISTING PERIOD. THE BUYER SHOULD REQUEST THE SCOPE OF WORK FROM THEIR AGENT

Is this Capo Beach or CAP-o Beach? Bad joke. But seriously, our eyes are hurting from reading the listing description. Let's take a look at some of the notes on the Redfin listing:

Additions/Alterations
Sold As Is
Fixer Upper
Rehab Potential
Cosmetic Repairs
Major Repairs Needed

As you probably noticed, the house went back to the bank in August and it's already back on the market. Before that, the house sold for $667,000 in August 2003. The asking price today is almost $100,000 less than it sold for six years ago. The actual amount of repairs is a coin flip - better be sure you "INVESTIGATE THE PROPERTY WITH PROFESSIONAL INSPECTORS" to see whether you consider this to be an opportunity or a train wreck.

A great deal in Laguna!

2009-09-23T05:59:00.000-07:00

A great deal that is, if you'd like to rent this Laguna Beach property instead of own it. At least, it's a great deal compared to the asking price. Hmm...maybe the asking price is just flat out of whack. See what you think...

820 La Vista Dr, 92651
Asking price: $1,469,000
Previous sales price: $1,296,500
Previous sales date: 7/24/09

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	-
Lot Size:	6,550 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Cottage
Stories:	1
View:	Catalina Island, City Lights, Ocean, Panoramic, Treetop
Year Built:	1956
Community:	Laguna Village
County:	Orange
MLS#:	L30869
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	19 days

From listing: Location, location, location! A three bedroom home with a view of Catalina and the city close to Laguna Beach High School, Anneliese Pre-school, tennis courts, swiming pool, stores, restaurants, beaches; all walking distance away. The home is on a quiet Cul-de-Sac and has a THREE car garage! Plans for a second story, approved by Design Review Board, soft contemporary design are included. This home offers quiet solitude and the proximity to action as well. What a bargain!! Seller financing available! Also offered for the lease @ $3,250.00 per month

Based on the previous sales date and the fact that this one is not listed as an REO, we would also seem to be in the midst of an attempted flip .... and a profitable one based on the current asking price and assuming no renovations were done.

Either way, it's interesting to see how the rental asking price compares to the for sale asking price. If we were to assume $3,250 is the "real" value of this property that a renter would be willing to pay each month to live here, the house "should" be worth about $585,000 based on an estimated target GRM for an owner-occupant of 180. We used 180 instead of the typical 160 because we're building in the fact that we would guess an owner would be willing to pay a bit more to own in Laguna Beach.

Let's just say the asking price is a tad above that.

Lots of Ladera pendings

2009-09-21T05:56:00.000-07:00

We've got four pending sales in the Ladera Ranch community of Chambray - two more active listings are looking for buyers. All four of the pending sales are also short sales.

Just a few years ago, these were going for $500k+. Let's see what's going on down there...

68 Garrison Loop
Last asking price: $298,500-324,567
Previous sales price: $515,000
Previous sales date: 7/21/06
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: WHEN CAN YOU REMEMBER THE LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BUY A PROPERTY LIKE THIS? THIS IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE. 3 BEDROOMS, 2 1/2 BATHS, 2 CAR GARAGE, 2 STORY, AND IT SHOWS BEAUTIFULLY!

36 Garrison Loop
Last asking price: $335,000
Previous sales price: N/A
Previous sales date: N/A
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Highly upgraded unit in a great location. Tile entry with New Pergo wood flooring in Dining and Kitchen. New Carpeting in Livingroom with tiled fireplace and ceiling fan. Upgraded cabinets, Ceiling fans in all bedrooms and Plantation Shutters throughout. Master bedroom has walk-in closet in master bath and double vanity. Inside laundry.

41 Chadron Circle
Last asking price: $329,900
Previous sales price: $480,000
Previous sales date: 6/26/06
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,500 sq ft
Listing description snippet: Wrap-around private porch/entertainment area. Corian Counters, separate formal dining room, two separate living areas )formal living/family). Kitchen counter bar eating area. Built-in media niche & stone surround fireplace in family room. Ceiling fans throughout, encased windows. Garage cabinetry with sink. Chaparral - Highest Rated Elementary!!!Pride of Ownership...

11 Chadron Circle
Last asking price: $330,000
Previous sales price: $525,000
Previous sales date: 7/28/05
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,417 sq ft
Listing description snippet: This is an amazing opportunity to live in one of south OC's most sought-after neighborhood communities. Beautiful view of the canyon, rolling hills, and stunning sunsets. Nestled in a peaceful location of the tract.