So let’s get down to the round of 16. No upsets and no surprises… history repeats… again.

Uruguay v Korea – this was the easiest quarter of the draw (rankings wise anyway) in lieu of France self destructing in front of 7 billion people and Nigeria not coming to the party. The French provided more enjoyment for me personally than most of the games of the World Cup so far. A Twilight novel seems more realistic than what happened in France; Nicolas Anelka (who is an A grade jerk mind you) calls the France Coach a loser, who proceeds to boot him out of the tournament. The players, in protest, boycott a training session like spoilt Brangelina children… and needless to say, their minds are not on the job. They lose to get this, South Africa, and finish bottom of their group. The debacle kicks off in France even reaching question time in French parliament. The French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, calls Thierry Henry in to the Presidential rooms to probe him on the affairs, the French FA President quits his job, and the French Sports Minister orders a parliamentary enquiry. And now, the icing on the cake, Sep Blatter is threatening to ban the French team from FIFA because political interference is frowned upon.

Oh, and Uruguay won.

USA v Ghana – This was a ripper of a game; tight and nervy with Ghana getting over the line thanks to a wonderful run and finish by Gyan. Aussie supporters should know him as he absolutely terrorised Lucas Neil and co in the 90 minutes he played against us. He has 3 tournament goals and I think he will score again against Uruguay. America might have snatched this had they been a bit more clinical but no one wants to see the Sepos do well in a code they so adamantly ignore. And besides, if they do become good, instead of idolising men with great names like Ronaldihno and Batistuta, we will have to start chortling the praises of men named Chad or Connor or Ashton.

Holland v Slovakia – Slovakia were brave but were never in the hunt. Holland’s performances have been much lamented in their home country due to their boring structured play. I don’t know about you guys, but it seems like every nation in the world is now playing this 4-3-3 formation. It sounds attacking but it is anything but. Holland is famous throughout the world for playing attacking flamboyant “Total Football”; but not this World cup. They are effective sure, but only Robben seems to be prepared to run at defenders, and they definitely passed the style baton over to Chile this summer. Saying that, they still ruthlessly progressed to the quarters, and if they do a number on Brazil, then they will become favourites to win. I did pick them at the start of the tournament in one of my previous rants, but having watched their formation and style, I sadly retract my statement. For me, Van Persie is not good enough to run the line on his own and Sneijder just can’t seem to control that jabulani ball. Let’s hope they have a real crack at Brazil.

Brazil v Chile – What a fun match to watch! Chile stole the show in the first half of the tournament, and I have no qualms at all in saying that I have a man crush on Alexis Sanchez, or “El Niño Maravilla” (the Wonder Boy). He tore the tournament to shreds and it’s a shame they had to play Brazil so early in the tournament.  Which brings me to Brazil…Brazil are pure class. They play with fluidity and style, their goals are great and their defense is rock solid. Their players have personality and they have the best kit in World Football. I do not want to spend too long on Brazil because I know I will be writing about their mouth watering ability next week when the semi finals come, so I will leave it there.

Argentina v Mexico – You have to love the Argies… Messi has done absolutely everything except score, Tevez is in career best form and Gonzalo Higuain has 4 goals including a hat trick! Firepower indeed. Their clash with Germany is going to be the match of the tournament, so don’t miss it!

ENGLAND v Germany – Oh what a playful little romp this was. England was exposed on grandest stage of all and the way it happened made you cringe. How the Premier League cannot produce a quality team is beyond me. How slow is Gareth Barry, why can’t Milner as a specialist winger cross the ball, why can’t Gerrard re-produce those Champions League performances, what was with that first goal (a kickout from the German keeper),  why is David Beckham wearing a vest all the time, why doesn’t world cup experience ever seem to help David James, what the hell was Upson doing on the pitch, how did Frank Lampard get such a good tan in such a short time, what was with Rooney’s first touch every time he was played in, and finally, did Defoe actually touch the ball. Once again, we all believed the hype about England, and I was one of them. I thought a great manager in Capello could get the best out of the team, but it looks like no one can. I still can’t believe the FA passed on Guus Hiddink when he was available. Hindsight is a wonderful think, but we should have looked at the stats before we gave England a chance against Germany. I mean, England have not finished above Germany in a World Cup since they won the tournament in 1966! And you will notice I failed to mention the disallowed goal, because it would not have changed the result.

On a brighter note, Mannschaft played with flair, looked damaging on the counter attack and Ozil will be at Man United, Barcelona or Real Madrid next season – he is that good!!! The way he burnt England on a number of occasions just left your jaw bone hanging on the ground. But tell me he doesn’t look like Codfix from the Asterix comics

Did I mention England were awful…. Well they were…. Upson… what the hell…..

Paraguay v Japan – I am skipping this match because I have not seen a single minute of it (other than the Japanese guy hitting the bar in the penalty shoot out, I have seen that footage ten times already). Good on Paraguay for mixing it with the big boys, and I hope they give Spain a run.

Spain v Portugal – What a snooze from Portugal. So many good players being forced to play a boring, flat style of football. Carlos Queiroz the Portugal manager should be shot for not getting the best out Ronaldo and co. He was a nobody number two to Sir Alex at United for more years than I can remember, he was useless at Real Madrid as a Manager, he was a nobody again at United when he returned for a second stint, and why would he come to the world cup with Cristiano Ronaldo in his team with a defensive game plan is beyond me. As for Ronaldo, he should have a look at Alexis Sanchez for inspiration next time…

Spain did what they had to do, Barca looks like they have a real quality signing in David Villa, who has scored a couple of real gems this tournament. I am still angry at Torres for giving us the worst, most pathetic dive of the tournament. If his face wasn’t buried in the grass clutching his leg like he had been shot, he actually would have seen his Spanish team mates score a match winning goal. But the stars seem to be aligning for Spain. They are getting better every game, and they are now making the quarter finals of tournaments without playing well, the way the real teams do it.

My quarter final predictions:

Uraguay   2  v Ghana  1          (Gyan to score)

Brazil    1   v    Netherlands   1   (Brazil go through in extra time)

Argentina  2   v   Germany   1  (I just get the feeling Argentina are due)

Spain   1   v     Paraguay   0

The above is written by Dylan Evans, a friend of Sportpunter.com

Truth is, that with a 5 set match, a favourite is more likely to win the match. It makes perfect sense. If you consider a player and a probability to win a certain point, then one can easily calculate the probability to win the game, set and then match. The more sets in the match, the more likely that a person is going to win if his probability of winning a point is higher.

For example, if a player is a 55% chance to win any point on serve, whilst their opponent is only a 50% chance to win any point on serve, then the first mentioned player is a 75.1% chance to win the match for a best of 3 sets match, and a 79.9% chance to win the match for a best of 5 set match.

The difference may not seem like a lot, but it is enough to get enough people confused.

Data over the past 6 years has shown that actually betting on the favourites in a 5 set match without any other information is in fact profitable. With a database of nearly 3000 bets, if one were to bet to win $500 on every match, then should all the bets be on the favourite, then you would have made a very handy 2.1% ROI. This equates to a profit of $224,383.00. Pretty nice indeed.

On the other hand, had you bet to win $500 of every underdog in a 5 set match, then you would have seen yourself out of pocket 10.3% ROI, or a loss of $58,621. Ouch. Interestingly the win amount is greater than the loss because of some large bets on short priced favourites.

Also, if one were to bet $500 straight up on all the favourites of 5 set matches, then one would have made 1.5% ROI or $20,855 over the past 5-6 years. Losses of 22.7% ROI or a massive loss of $321,230 would have been made if one were simply betting on the underdog at $500 a pop.

These are incredible numbers, and goes to show that the general public underrate the favourite when it comes to 5 set betting. Keep this in mind when betting on a favourite at Wimbledon.

Sportpunter’s tennis model is available for subscription.

But having watched the game again I realised that these obvious failings by ref and manager had absolutely no effect whatsoever on the result. The brutally honest truth is simple: The Mannschaft drove their shiny silver BMW down Friedrichstraße in down town Berlin, coerced the Australian team into the back seat of the car with polished English Gramma and a soft scent of cologne; drove the Aussie team in silence to the East side of town where in the midst of an industrial waste land, they rapped on a large iron trap door three times; a midget holding a candle and a white albino cat opened the door and escorted the Aussie team into a dark pit surrounded by large wooden benches where the Mannschaft’s extended squad sat in alphabetical order by order of surname, and proceeded to watch as a dozen large naked German skin heads with fascist tattoos proceeded to rotate the Aussie team one by one 90 degrees, removed all clothing from the waste down, enforced a touch your toes policy and feasted on the milky flesh of the unplucked prostates raised to the heavens.

Australia was a lamb to the slaughter to a German team that played probably as well as their current squad could. The first goal was a world cup classic and completely threw the Australian game plan into chaos. I stated before the game that it was a privilege to play the Mannschaft, and I stand by that and extrapolate. It was an absolute privilege to get rear ended by Die Mannschaft.

Now on to other matters. A lot of football has been played already and here is my synopsis of the first five day of the cup:

Group A – Mexico was absolutely brilliant for the first twenty minutes against South Africa, and was absolutely terrible for the entire second half. They will have to improve considerably to get amongst the big teams. I despise South Africa and want them to lose immediately, not because I have anything against the team itself, I despise South Africa because they have allowed those god forsaken plastic trumpets into all matches and they do my head in every time I turn the TV on. Uruguay and France CAN NOT win the World cup. Talk about a waste of time. I haven’t lived in Europe for a long time now and I rarely watch Barcelona, but how can Thierry Henry not get on the ground until practically injury time. For the Aussies out there, when Henry was in the Premier league, he used to average the equivalent of around 170 supercoach points every match without fail (he used to cost about $1,000,000 to buy though)

Group B – Argentina cruised past Nigeria and should have probably scored 6. They will be in second gear until the round 16 and will focus solely on staying away from the dreaded yellow card for the remainder of the qualifications (tell me you saw Maradonna lacing that free kick in training into the top corner). Greece was as bad as, if not worse than Australia. I actually can’t believe Greece is in the world cup and Ireland missed out. I refuse to acknowledge Korea because Greece was so bad.

Group C – England hit by the injury curse; England not having a left sided midfielder; calamity at the back by the England Keeper… It must be World Cup time. Back England to top their group, smash whoever they play in the round of 16, and go out on penalties in the quarters (Rooney, Gerrard or Terry will get a red card in the quarter final). Slovenia and Algeria………….. All I remember is the terrible effort by the goal keeper.

Group D – Germany will win the world cup; will not miss a penalty and will invent the first ever automobile that runs on used MacDonald’s wrappers. Australia will hit back and beat Ghana who wins the celebration of the world cup so far with their dancing train that completely plagiarised “The Macarena”. Serbia’s world cup is over. They will lose easily to Germany and that will be it.

Group E – Holland did what they had to do to win, but they did not display the same quality and speed of the Mannschaft. Without Robben, they looked a bit like a one trick pony with Sneijder creating a world cup record for most shots off target by any player in history (with 231). Japan beat Cameroon, I did not watch the game but the goal to the back post was solid enough. They definitely celebrated like they had just won the final.

Group D – Italy and Paraguay was a bit of a snooze and previous emails have covered that one pretty well. I am not going to right off Italy though as they always seem to be there and there about when it matters, and the Roman Aqua Ducts were and still are the greatest man made invention since the Pyramids (can you imagine being the person that invented a way of transporting water so you could build a town inland… think about it). New Zealand achieved a most remarkable point from Slovakia. New Zealand’s goal was pretty much the last touch of the match and must go down as one of the greatest moments in New Zealand sporting history.

Group F – Enter Eminem from stage left. Takes Mike from Gangster and turns to the DJ; “Yo player, spin that s#$t”….. Phat beat starts to rumble out of the sound system, Eminem turns to the crowd, clear his throat and begins to chant….

“Yes he’s back…. Back again…. Drogba’s back…. Tell a friend….”

And finally, in keeping with tradition of adding a picture at the end of every post, here is real, un-airbrushed photo of Ronaldo…

The above is written by Dylan Evans, a friend of Sportpunter.com

For those in Melbourne, here are my plans for the first weekend of the World Cup. If you have a wife, a girlfriend, a boyfriend or an over protective mother, may I suggest that you save your leave passes for later in the tournament. The round of 16 and especially the Quarter Finals will by far smash the first week of football in terms of quality teams playing each other. I would suggest you keep it low key for the tonight; watch the Opening Ceremony if you must, but definitely watch the South Africa V Mexico opener on TV. If you saw the Ticker Tape Parade of the South African Team in an open air Bus on the News, you would have noticed what this tournament means to the locals. Mexico has a long standing tradition in World Cups due to the fact that the North American Qualification zone is considerably weak, meaning they pretty much always qualify.

BUT WHATEVER YOU DO, get up Sunday morning and watch England v USA. The ungodly hour of 4:00AM should not deter you from the most watchable team in the World. Some will say Brazil and Argentina play a prettier style of football, and they are right, but England draws you in with the mass fanfare and pompous. The hysteria and expectation that sit behind the England team every time they go into a tournament borders on lunacy. The Premier League is the best league in the world, but they always manage to botch up every tournament they ever play in. And let’s be honest, we NEED THEM TO WIN if Australia is play them in the round of 16 (on the remote chance that we get past Serbia). Also, USA is not without a chance. Unfortunately they have lost star Striker Jozy Altidore to an ankle injury, but try telling a Sepo that they can’t win this match. The American Saaaaccer experiment is gathering pace in the US of A and within 20 years I can guarantee you they will be most competitive. Americans have bought a staggering 132,000 tickets to the tournament, easily the most of any nation outside of the host. 55,000 went to see the Americans send off game, and the US faithful are openly planning to outroar the might of the travelling British army. From what I saw in Germany, no one will get near England in terms of support, and if Chance and Ridge from Stamford Law take on the lunatics that were savagely abusing German locals in German Plaza’s, there could be a blood bath.

Which leads us to the main event; The Aussie game. After reading Dez Cullagh’s exquisite article on Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kewell, I have gone 360 degrees on Harry the Spaniard. After looking at that photo, how could I not want him to start against the Germans? Sure, he will probably substitute himself on 20 minutes for general soreness, but he is the Spaniard, spawned from great Explorers and conquerors throughout history.

The above is written by Dylan Evans, a friend of Sportpunter.com

HOWEVER, it is with a heavy heart that I must inform you that the tournament has hit a stumbling block the likes of which it has never seen. In fact many sports writers are questioning whether of not the tournament itself should go on in the wake of such extraordinary news. It has circled the world like a plague, poisoning the minds of young children everywhere, who were daring to dream… daring to dream of a better life….

The crème de la crème of modern football is injured. Didier Drogba for all intensive purposes is out of the World Cup.

South Africa 2010 was already reeling from the news that Golden Balls David Beckham, England Captain Rio Ferdinand, Italian playmaker Andrea Pirlo (who had such a memorable Germany tournament) and a host of others will not be present at the finals tournament. I mean, young female Brazilians all over Ipanema Beach in Rio De Janeiro laid out a ceremonial wreath of G-strings, asking the almighty lord of the Ocean to heal Brazilian Keeper Julio Cesar’s troublesome back (dramatisation, may not have happened).  And as if I didn’t put the moz on the Netherlands in my last report, singing their praises like a church choir… not two days later, their best player and easily the Player of the Champions League this year, Arjen Robben from Bayern Munich, does his hammy and is out of the tournament. I don’t care how good their paramedics are, no one recovers from a hammy in less than a month (it should be noted here that they did still manage to beat Hungary 6 – 1 in the match and your money isn’t spent yet)

But let’s get back to Drogba. He is the Ivorian Coast’s Captain, Striker and is currently the best player on the planet bar none. He tore the Premier League to shreds this year, taking the coveted Golden Boot for leading scorer, scored a memorable Hat trick on the last day of the year to win the league for Chelsea, and he scored the only goal in the FA cup final last month (after hitting the woodwork three times mind you). This goal placed him in the upper echelon of greatness, making him the only player ever to score a goal in 6 English Cup finals. And his scoring record for his country is unparalleled in world football. Who else in the tournament can boast 44 goals from 68 appearances for their country?

But he is more than just a mere mortal. To quote Wikipedia, Drogba is credited by many with playing a vital role in bringing peace to his country. After Côte d’Ivoire qualified for the 2006 World Cup, Drogba made a desperate plea to the combatants of his torn nation, asking them to lay down their arms, a plea which was answered with a cease fire after 5 years of civil war. Drogba later helped move an African Cup of Nations qualifier to the rebel stronghold of Bouake a move which has been credited with affirming the peace process. His involvement in the peace process lead to Drogba being named as one of the world’s 100 most influential people by Time magazine. And, if that was not enough, his physical appearance is likened to that of a Greek God:

So I think now you can see what this injury has done to tournament officials and local governments. Their potential revenue from ticket sales and tourism is seriously under threat. It was his home continent, it was his tournament… Now the dream is over.

To sum up, we all know the show must go on, but the tournaments reputation has taken a hit. South Africa 2010 has become a kid’s birthday party without a birthday cake.

The above is written by Dylan Evans, a friend of Sportpunter.com

Here are some interesting things to note from the last 24 hours:

• For those that followed the Jose Mourihno era at Chelsea, FLICK THE SWITCH Joey Cole has been named in the England squad. Bumping out young pocket dynamo Theo Walcott, Capello has gone for Joey’s experience and ability to run at defenders. Watch out for the most exaggerated step over technique in the game.
• Australia’s hot rival for the second qualification spot Ghana suffered an embarrassing 4 – 1 defeat to the crazy Dutch. Looking soulless without Chelsea great Michael Essien, Ghana look ripe for the picking. As a side note, get on the Dutch to go deep into the World Cup. Smashing Ghana without the rested Robben, Netherlands definitely has the team to do some real damage. Robben is in the form of his life, Inter’s Sneijder is world class, and Kuyt and Van Persie are capable up front
• The mighty AUSSIES got off to a winning start against the boring boring Danish. Hot women sure, classy footballers, I don’t think so. But a 1 – 0 win is a ripper of a start, keeping a clean sheet and big front man Josh Kennedy continued his ridiculous scoring record for Australia. As far as Australia is concerned, I think Pim has a real headache on his hands. I personally think Australia should build its set up around Kennedy. He scores at will and opposition teams always struggle to match up on him. Being short of a second classic striker, Australia would have to go in with a 4 – 5 – 1 formation. I don’t think Pim will go in like this. I think he will go in with Harry the Spaniard Kewell up front with Tim Cahill, and you watch Germany disregard that set up with consummate ease (feel free to disagree)
• On the betting front:
  • • • Germany $1.50              Australia  $7.00
      • Ghana $2.40                  Australia  $2.75  (WHAT!)
      • Serbia $2.25                  Australia  $3.00

So Australia clearly the underdogs (again). Just the way we like it.

Oh and in other news, the Special One, Jose Mourihno, has just signed on to coach Real Madrid. The greatest coach of the modern era coaching the greatest team of the modern era, with a President that has bank rolled Ronaldo, Kaka and Alonso. Watch out for the summer signings. My tip is he will sign many players from England (Frank Lampard or Stevie Gerrard must be high on his list). There are already rumours of Ashley Cole who will mercenary himself no problem for a few extra pounds.

But how exciting is that. The Special One is indeed special. In less than ten years as a coach, he brought Porto two league titles in Portugal and unbelievably a Champions league title. He brought Chelsea the title for the first time in fifty years, then, repeated the dose a year later. Add two Carling Cups and an FA cup, he left with serious credibility. From there he took over Serie A giant Inter Milan. He won back to back league titles and the Champions League title for the first time in something like 65 years. His Italian trophy treble this year has never been done in the history of the Serie A. Only three coaches in history have won the Champions League with two different clubs. You can bet your bottom dollar he will be the first to do it with three. Oh, and who else on the planet who just signed with Real Madrid would state that wants to coach in England again…. What a marvel. My tip, he will take over from Sir Alex Ferguson in around 4 years time.

The above is written by Dylan Evans, a friend of Sportpunter.com

Before news broke of Storms loss of 2010’s current premiership points, some smart gamblers backed the Storm to win the wooden spoon at odds of 250 to 1.

So it’s a guaranteed situation that Melbourne storm will now finish bottom of the ladder, when they previously were very favoured to win the premiership and unbackable to miss the finals.

This means a couple of things, that other teams now will have an increased probability of making the finals and indeed, winning the premiership. So how much difference will it mean to other teams? We will have a look at that now.

Based on our computer model, Melbourne Storm were a 21% chance to win the premiership and a 92% chance to make the finals. All that is gone now, and other clubs will share in those probabilities.

For the premiership, interestingly, only the top ranked teams seem to have increased in premiership chances. St. George increase from 19.6% chance to win the premiership up to 22.7% chance, an increase of 3.1%. Similarly, Penrith increase from a 6.7% chance to a 10% chance, and Manly increase from a 15.6% chance to 17.8% chance. Sydney roosters and Parramatta also increase, but our computer simulation sees most other clubs as increasing only marginally.

The probability of players making the finals is interesting. All teams increase from as little as 1% for St. George (94.2% to 95.4%) to as much as 6.5% for the Gold Coast (62.5% up to 69%).

Either way, what is clear is that other teams now have an increased chance of making the finals and winning the premiership.

As for Melbourne, well, it’s curtains for now.

Click here for the NRL predictions and mathematical model.

People just believe that Andy Roddick and other great American players will be just as good on clay, but quite often we see such great serving talented players losing to otherwise unknown Spaniards and Frenchmen.

So just to prove the above point, here is a simple example. I’ve managed to source all the matches that Top 500 ranked Americans have played non Americans on clay. How would we have gone had we simply backed the American to win $100 or backed his opposition.

When backing the American to win $100 we would have lost a total of $1928 from a turnover of $38,600. So a 5% ROI loss there, which sounds pretty standard.

But when backing the non-American to defeat the American on clay for $100, we made a profit of $1464 from $104,600 turnover. That’s a profit of 1.4% ROI.

It’s not huge, but it shows that the bias is there. In fact, if we look at all the clay tournaments that are not played in America then the result is even more exaggerated.

Backing Americans to defeat non Americans away from home on clay, resulted in a loss of $2,143 from $25,260 turnover. That’s an 8.5% ROI loss. Whilst backing against the American to win $100 would have profited $1,419 from $94,000 or 1.5% ROI.

So the bias is there. People just cant comprehend that such a great American, Aussie or Brit can really be so terrible on clay.

It’s a completely different game.

Supercoach and Dream Team for AFL football is a big passion of mine. So much so that I’m involved in several leagues that total an entry fee of over $1000. It’s high stakes fantasy and I feel as though I have an edge over some of my fellow competitors.

So from time to time, I will be giving out who I believe are big bargains and steals from round to round. Players who will increase in value and who you should pick up. And here they are listed below by position for Round 2:

Defenders

Nick Malceski, Syd (SC: $273.5k, DT: $242.8):

Had a shocking run with injury in his last two years with the swans, but looks to be back to his 2007 form where he averaged 21 possessions a game. His 25 disposals on the weekend against reigning minor premiers St. Kilda shows me that he’s back to his best.

Tadgh Kennelly, Syd (SC: $320.7k, DT: $204.7k):

Better value on dream team here, but fellow Sydneysider or Irishman Kennelly missed all of last year to be premiers for his Gaelic football team. He comes back here majorly underpriced, and 28 possessions in round 1 shows that he will only increase in value

Others: Alex Silvagnia (FRE), Matt Maguire (BRL), Beau Waters (WCE), Rick Ladson (HAW)

Midfielders

Michael Barlow, Fre (SC: $111.4k, DT: $105.8k):

If you haven’t got him in your side, then get him in now. He was prolific during the pre season and topped it up with a 33 possession 2 goal game on the weekend. He will go up massively.

Ryan Bastinac, Nth (SC: $94.2k, DT: $89.5k)

A very nice 23 disposals in the opening round, following up a very good preseason. The young midfield of the kangaroos are very impressive, it’s a pity of their lack of height and power and front and down back to match.

Others: Luke Shuey (WCE), Mitchell Banner (PTA), Todd Banfield (BRL), Ben Howlett (ESS)

Rucks

Mark Seaby, Syd (SC: $287.9k, DT: $226.7k)

With Jolly leaving the swans, Seaby now becomes the no. 1 ruckman for Sydney. This is massive for any fantasy footy follower, and his points in round 1 – 82 in both SC and DT) testify that he is good value. He should only go up in price.

Robert Warnock, CAR (SC: $132.2k, DT: $101.8l):

More value in dream team  where he scored 85 points compared to 47 in supercoach. Even though, as second named ruckman for Carlton he will go up and up in value sitting nicely on your bench.

Others: Jackson Trengove (PTA), Brad Ottens (GEE)

Forwards:

Carl Peterson, Haw (SC: $100.2k, DT: $94.5k)

Stared in his first game for the hawks with 17 possessions and a goal. Ok sure it was against lowly Melbourne, but Peterson only played 57% of the game on the field. A little bit more and he should gain more points. But keep in mind, the hawks have to make way for Buddy and Bateman this week with Burgoyne lurking. Someone will have to make way

Eddie Betts, CAR (SC: $399.1k, DT: $274.3k)

Had a cracker of a pre season, and with no Judd for a while should rack up some more points. Betts has increased his average possessions every year since 2005, so signs are there that this could be his breakout year. 136/110 points last week showed us that he’s almost there.

Others: Patrick Dangerfield (ADE), Cameron Hitchcock (PTA), Chris Yarren (CAR), Hayden Ballantyne (FRE)

Previously we looked at how the Sportpunter AFL model had gone betting head to head

Traditionally, unlike Americans, Australians had always bet on any sport on the head. It makes perfect sense too; punters want to bet on whom they think is going to win as opposed to who is going to win by a certain margin. But more recently line betting has become more in vogue. This is because many of the head to head betting matchups are already almost over before they begin, with two many one sided matches making the betting uninteresting.

So line betting has made its way into Australian betting culture, and there are other advantages with it as well. Returns can be less varied as most odds are set to around 1.85 to 2.00, so wide fluctuations are less likely to occur. AFL is primed for line betting because the distribution of points throughout a game is relatively normally distributed.

Since 2005, we have been recording all the line bet odds, which isn’t as long as head to head betting, of which we had a lot more years of odds for. Throughout this time, head to head betting had made $5,330.07 profit at 5.3% ROI, whilst betting on the handicap has made twice as much: $10,716 profit for 8.2% ROI.  Many would say that this is a great sign that handicap betting is the way to go as not only is it more profitable but also more consistent.

So let’s have a look at how well the model had gone on line betting. The total results below differ slightly to that above as some matches in the database were added to the results post match, but are for obvious reasons not included in the betting history, but included in the analysis. As shown below, results have been very good. Not much can be talked about with regards to probabilities and odds with the exception that probabilities of over 75% didn’t do too well. Similarly, and interestingly, overlays greater than 50% lost. Sure there were only 8 bets, but this is strange. It may be more interesting to look at the actual lines to see if we can find a pattern that could possibly explain this.

	Prob	#Bet	#Won	%Won	Met	$Profit	%ROI
0%	50%	2	2	100%	$129.90	$172.76	133%
50%	55%	71	31	44%	$5,017.53	-$360.73	-7%
55%	60%	270	153	57%	$33,818.65	$3,761.85	11%
60%	65%	162	88	54%	$36,391.36	$2,502.29	7%
65%	70%	98	56	57%	$30,979.23	$3,487.39	11%
70%	75%	34	22	65%	$14,184.04	$3,705.87	26%
75%	80%	10	4	40%	$5,272.47	-$1,301.67	-25%
80%	85%	1	0	0%	$618.82	-$618.82	-100%
85%	90%	1	1	100%	$751.02	$702.20	94%
90%	100%	0	0		$0.00	$0.00
		649	357	55%	$127,163.02	$12,051.14	9.5%
	Odds	#Bet	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
$1.00	$1.50	0	0		$0.00	$0.00
$1.50	$1.60	4	2	50%	$594.53	-$195.72	-33%
$1.60	$1.70	0	0		$0.00	$0.00
$1.70	$1.80	2	1	50%	$232.50	$31.39	14%
$1.80	$1.90	32	21	66%	$6,630.37	$2,356.74	36%
$1.90	$1.95	269	136	51%	$54,062.14	$94.71	0%
$1.95	$2.00	283	166	59%	$54,165.85	$8,925.63	16%
$2.00	$2.05	38	17	45%	$7,963.90	-$514.06	-6%
$2.05	$2.10	14	9	64%	$2,555.63	$935.06	37%
$2.10	$2.20	3	1	33%	$482.51	-$208.62	-43%
$2.20	$3.00	4	4	100%	$475.59	$626.01	132%
$3.00	$25.00	0	0		$0.00	$0.00
		649	357	55%	$127,163.02	$12,051.14	9.5%
	Overlay	#Bet	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	5%	0	0		$0.00	$0.00
5%	10%	158	77	49%	$12,646.35	-$429.70	-3%
10%	15%	142	84	59%	$18,607.32	$2,701.47	15%
15%	20%	109	56	51%	$19,972.47	-$128.30	-1%
20%	25%	77	47	61%	$18,336.17	$3,357.53	18%
25%	30%	69	40	58%	$20,112.40	$2,708.46	13%
30%	35%	44	23	52%	$14,743.46	$377.17	3%
35%	40%	19	13	68%	$7,565.23	$2,515.41	33%
40%	50%	23	15	65%	$10,530.45	$3,080.30	29%
50%	1000%	8	2	25%	$4,649.17	-$2,131.21	-46%
		649	357	55%	$127,163.02	$12,051.14	9.5%

Shown below is the home team handicap for betting on the home team and the away team. Home team betting has done very well, and those in the know will know that home ground advantage is much underrated in AFL, so there are no surprises here.

What is interesting however is that the model has failed to make a profit when betting on the line on the away team when they are favourite. In other words, when the line is zero or lower, 64 bets have been made for a loss of 24.9% ROI. This is interesting, and although the sample size is small, could well once again have something to do with the fact of the biased home ground advantage in the sport.

If this pattern continues to exist, then there could be a case for not betting on the line for teams that are favourites when away. Using this information could well enhance your betting profits even greater than the %ROI as shown above.

Either way, it goes to show that betting on AFL is a seriously profitable sport to bet on.

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