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Open Thread: Green Bay Packers at Buccaneers

2009-11-08T17:30:24Z

GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-3)	WEEK # 9	TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-7)
	VS.

Date:	November 8, 2009	Location:	Tampa, FL
Time:	Noon CST	Stadium:	Raymond James Stadium
TV:	FOX	Favorite:	Packers by 10
Weather:	Partly Cloudy, 80 degrees	Injury Report:	Friday Injury Report
SBN Coverage:	Buc 'Em	My Prediction:	Packers 38, Bucs 10

Well, This Is News

2009-11-08T11:26:35Z

We knew Jason Spitz was out for Sunday with an unspecified lower back injury sustained in practice. His injury has taken a turn for the worse; Spitz was put on injured reserve yesterday.

One man who gains from this development is Scott Wells, the formerly-unseated starting center who now finds himself back with the first string. Most people believed that, while Wells is a superior technician and has more experience, his weak base and undersized stature made him an ill-fit at the center of the offensive line. Enter Jason Spitz, who is much bigger and stronger than Wells.

The move to I.R. is a shocker to me, as it leaves depth on the offensive line even thinner than before. However, if you're going to lose a starter, it may as well be at a position where you have a backup of Wells' caliber. Wells played relatively well against Minnesota (read: he was only tossed out of the way once), and Tampa Bay doesn't figure to challenge him much.

In any case, it's a shame that Spitz has to spend the rest of the year in street clothes. With all that free time, what will he do with himself? Aside from make conversation with Justin Harrell (who's been down this road before), let's hope he helps the line any way he can.

Analysis: The Backup Safety

2009-11-07T17:00:30Z

by Jeffrey Phelps - AP

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With the return of SS Atari Bigby, to play alongside FS Nick Collins, the safety position is as solid as it has been all season. But the lack of depth behind the starters was exposed when Bigby missed 3 games.

Coming into the season, it looked like free agent S Anthony Smith would be the top backup, but he was surprisingly cut after the final preseason game. The backup job initially went to S Aaron Rouse, but his only start, the loss to the Bengals, was the final straw and they wisely decided to release him. Though he resurfaced with the Giants, and has become their starter, it's not because he's playing well. At this point, the Giants have no other options. The Packers also traded for S Derrick Martin before the season started, but he was bad in the Vikings game at Minnesota and hasn't played on defense since. Now he's suffered a concussion and it's not clear whether he'll be able to play next Sunday. After Rouse was released, they signed S Matt Giordano, but when asked whether Giordano was up to speed, McCarthy only said "he's been working." So apparently he's not up to speed. Now the Packers found themselves right back to where they started, and put a waiver claim in on Smith, but they lost out to the Jaguars.

Right now CB/S Jarrett Bush has to be the top backup for either safety position, and it's likely he's the best option of any the other backup candidates I've written about. Who's the best option at this point?

Well, La Dee Da

2009-11-07T14:54:50Z

Well, La Dee Da

Brandon went after the NFL's policy of fining players for penalties during games, and he made some excellent points. However, in the case of Johnny Jolly's moronic headbutt, he got lucky to lose just $5k. Shoot, part of me thinks he should be docked double that for "conduct detrimental to the team."

Friday Injury Report: Green Bay Packers at Tampa

2009-11-07T07:18:28Z

The week's list is long for the Green Bay Packers. While a lot has gone wrong for the Buccaneers during their 0-7 start, injuries have not been their biggest problem.

For the Packers, a couple players (Lang and Allen) were injured during practice this week. Chillar is out for a couple weeks after having surgery on his broken hand. Driver (neck stinger) and Rodgers (feet) were held out all week, until Friday's practice, but they're almost certain to play through the pain. Clifton was back at practice all week, apparently his practice on Friday was limited just as a precaution, and he should start on Sunday. Hall was back in practice, after missing a couple weeks, but he was still limited and a good candidate to be left inactive on Sunday. Maybe the same can be said for Martin. There was nothing written, at least that I read, about Woodson's injury, so it's apparently not serious and he should start on Sunday. Again this week, Finley, Nelson, and Spitz are all out.

For the Bucs, their starting WR Antonio Bryant is likely to miss the game due to the knee injury he aggravated while flying coach. Maybe they'll be without 2nd year CB Elbert Mack, but since he's only started 1 NFL game, he's probably not a key part of their defense.

The complete injury lists, for both teams, are after the jump.

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Jake Allen	WR	Quadricep	Limited Participation	Questionable
Brandon Chillar	LB	Hand	Out	Out
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Limited Participation	Probable
Donald Driver	WR	Neck	Full Participation	Probable
Jermichael Finley	TE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Limited Participation	Questionable
T.J. Lang	G/T	Oblique	Limited Participation	Questionable
Derrick Martin	S	Concussion	Limited Participation	Questionable
Jordy Nelson	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Aaron Rodgers	QB	Feet	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Out
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable


Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Antonio Bryant	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Michael Clayton	WR	Wrist	Full Participation	Questionable
Elbert Mack	CB	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Aqib Talib	CB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Jeremy Zuttah	G	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable

Tex's Friday Preview - Tampa

2009-11-06T16:16:33Z

So...I kind of dropped the ball last week. Midterms caught up with me, and a big Halloween weekend in Madison (including two great Badger Hockey games and that 37-0 shellacking of Purdue) left me with no time on Friday to write a preview for that depressing game last week. But maybe it was for the best. That game was analyzed to death beforehand, and I don't know that I would have come up with anything new that would have been insightful or interesting anyway. In any case, I just wrapped up my one midterm for this week, and since there's none of the holiday craziness in the People's Republic of Madison this weekend, I can actually take a little time off to write up a preview.

The Packers have been fairly predictable this year. They beat the bad teams soundly (STL, DET, CLE) and lose to the very good teams (CIN, MIN). If that trend holds up, the Pack should beat Tampa by double digits this weekend. That said, here are a few things to watch.

1. The Offensive Line (big shocker here)

This is a perfect opportunity to rebound after the line was beaten like a drum by Jared Allen et al. A struggling Buccaneers defense without Monte Kiffin is exactly what the Packers' big uglies want to see to get some confidence back. When I look at your roster and the most recognizable names on the defensive line are Chris Hovan and Michael Bennett, I feel pretty good about going up against your defense. (And I only recognize the name Michael Bennett because he shares a name with a former badger running back).

2. Spencer Havner

This guy is quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch, mainly because he is EVERYWHERE. I must digress here. In my fantasy league with Mitchell, one of our best friends from high school decided on Tuesday after the Browns game that he wanted to pick up Havner because his top TE was on a bye and his 2nd option, Jermichael Finley, just suffered his injury. The problem was, he wasn't even eligible as a TE yet on ESPN's fantasy service. We all laughed him off, and let him play a man down with an empty TE spot and I, as the commish, promised to add him if/when ESPN updated their rosters or give him credit for whatever points he did accrue. Little did we know that Havner would catch those two TDs against the Vikes and make our friend look like a freakin' genius. Anyway, back to my point. I'll be curious to see if Havner is still as involved in the offense as he's been the last two weeks. Plus, I love watching him cover kicks.

3. Linebacker issues

With the loss of Brandon Chillar, someone (I'm looking at you, A.J. Hawk) will need to step up and play well against the run this Sunday. Hawk showed flashes of his potential against a lesser team in Cleveland. Can he do it again in Tampa? I hope so. Then again, he vanished against Minnesota, proving that the Browns can literally make anyone look good on the right day. Hopefully Hawk will earn some extra confidence this week in the same way the O-line does.

Now I'm off to my last class of the day before Badger women's and men's hockey games at 2 and 7 respectively. As always, GO PACK GO!

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Buccaneers

2009-11-06T13:15:19Z

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

20 days ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Tanard Jackson (36) gets a pat on the back from teammate Sabby Piscitelli (21) after returning an interception for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009. The Panthers won 28-21. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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The first thing that jumps out is zero, which is the number of 2009 wins by the last remaining winless team this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They looked very good in week 4 last season when they beat the Packers 30-21, but that seems like a long time ago. Since then they've fired their Super Bowl winning head coach, their long time defensive coordinator left for the University of Tennessee, and they've released or traded several defensive starters, including Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks. After an ugly loss to the Patriots in London, the Bucs are coming off the bye-week and giving their rookie 1st round QB Josh Freeman his first NFL start. As long as I'm dumping on the Bucs, I might as well mentioned how they shot themselves in the foot by firing Ron Wolf back in 1978.

Sometimes a record doesn't tell the whole story. But in this case it does; the Bucs are as bad as they look.

Instead of using the official NFL stats this week, I'm going with Football Outsiders. The problem with the official stats, which are based on yards/game, is that they don't take into account that their opponents have only attempted 180 passes against the Bucs, which is the lowest total in the NFL. I don't know why teams aren't throwing the ball against them because they aren't very good at stopping them: they've allowed 16 TDs to 8 INTs while their opponents' QB rating against them is 102.1. So from Football Outsiders.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	13	8	6	7

Team	Run Defense	Pass Defense	Run Offense	Pass Offense
Buccaneers	30	31	20	26

While RB Ryan Grant isn't running his way to the Pro Bowl this season, the Bucs aren't stopping anyone, only holding their opponents to 4.7 yards/carry. That's similar to the Browns, who allow 4.9 yards/carry, and Grant ran over them for 148 yards and 1 TD. Packers.

As I mentioned above the jump, though teams aren't throwing a lot of passes against the Bucs, it doesn't mean they are stopping the ones that are thrown. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating of 110.4, Bucs are "holding" their opponents to a 102.1 QB rating - it sounds like a matchup Rodgers should win. Packers.

If the Bucs have one bright spot, it's their running game, which is moving along at a 4.2 yards/carry. Both of their top rushers, RB Cadillac Williams and RB Derrick Ward, are over 4 yards/carry this season. But the Packers run defense has been even better, holding opponents to 3.5 yards/carry, while only allowing 3 rushing TDs and recovering 4 fumbles. The Bucs rushing attack is doing about as well as Detroit and Cleveland, and neither of those teams did much running the ball against the Packers earlier this season. Packers.

While not as good as last season, the Packers pass defense is still very good with 11 INTs and holding their opponents to a QB rating of 74.4. The Bucs have been awful the last 4 weeks with QB Josh Johnson as their starter, not that QB Byron Leftwich did much in the 3 games he started. So, as mentioned before the jump, they are turning to the rookie Freeman. It's hard to know how the rookie will play, but if he is truly better than Johnson or Leftwich (at this point in his career) you'd think he would have started before week 8. Packers.

Packers 38, Bucs 10.

Around the NFL: Studs/Duds, Power Rankings, and Week 9 Picks

2009-11-06T06:01:29Z

More photos » by Bill Feig - AP

5 days ago: New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas (23) points the ball to Atlanta Falcons cornerback Tye Hill (24) as he scores a touchdown in the first half of an NFL football game in New Orleans, Monday, Nov. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)

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The NFL writers of SB Nation did our annual mid-season Studs and Duds awards. Warning: a couple of Vikings are listed as studs, so read cautiously.

The writers kept the Saints at No. 1 while we pushed the Green Bay Packers down from No. 12 to 14 in the Week 9 power rankings.

It's no surprise we picked Packers to win on Sunday, amongst all of our Week 9 Picks.

Analysis: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Through 7 Games

2009-11-05T17:15:17Z

You might have noticed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only NFL team without a win this season, and the Green Bay Packers are going to play them on Sunday. And rookie QB Josh Freeman will have his 1st NFL start. The Packers should be favored, but they still have to travel to Tampa and win the game. Though I don't expect Mike McCarthy will let his players overlook any team.

Since I haven't watched a Bucs game this season, and don't know how the team that beat the Packers last season in week 4 has managed to become the only remaining winless team, I asked Buc 'Em blogger Niko Houllis a couple questions:

Brandon: What happened to the formerly great Tampa defense? The draft hasn't been kind in recent years, but they were still very good in early 2008. The collapse seems sudden to me.

Niko: That is a fanastic question. Most would say it's on the sideline singing "Rocky Top"! People can say what they want to, but the collapse started the game after Monte Kiffin announced he is headed to Tennessee to coach his son's defense. Other things happened around the same time too though. We got hurt on our D line, which wasn't that good to begin with. Carolina found a weakness. They were able to put 3 receivers on the field and keep us in a defense which favored their running attack. They were able to gash us for almost 300 yards on the ground in that Monday night game that Bucs fans were waiting all day for so we could finally pronounce our team for real...and give us an inside edge on the 2nd seed just like we had in our Super Bowl year. Little did we know we would not win a game again! Truth is, the Bucs misfired on their #1 draft pick Gaines Adams, and were lucky to get a #2 for him. But the defense had gotten old, and started to patch things up with bandaids like the offense had been doing too. Instead of tearing the team apart and starting over like were doing this year, the team kept using bandaids, and drafting poorly just about every draft.

Brandon: Are their offensive problems solely due to poor QB play, or have other areas on offense let you down?

Niko: Some feel the offensive line has not been playing up to its potential, but truth is it was a FAR drop from starting Center Jeff Faine to second string Sean Mahan, who was released in preseason, only to be called up again due to Faine's injury during game one. Teams were blitzing the heck out of our gap between our left guard and center, and we couldn't do anything about it. So that is not a fair assesment. The biggest problem has been the quarterback play. I'm not sure what the Bucs were thinking during preseason, everyone just knew Byron Leftwich wasn't starting material anymore, and then they traded Luke McCown, who really didn't beat anyone out to prove his worth this preseason anyways. Josh Johnson has some upside, but he doesn't have the pedigree Josh Freeman has. This team has now taken the step, this is the 6th generation of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we will build around Freeman, though it may be ugly to watch at first.

Brandon: I've read articles that made it seem like Tampa's coaches have been unprepared. Is Raheem Morris a capable NFL head coach?

Niko: This is a hot topic. Any article I write about Morris gets many comments. Mostly negative. The older football fan (not trying to tick off any younger fans...) tend to be more patient because they have seen more seasons of football and understand this happens, while the younger fan tends to be more impatient and want him gone now for the big name guy . Funny how we forget the past, when Steve Spurrier and Jimmy Johnson were wanted but a guy named Tony Dungy came instead!

McCarthy On: Rodgers, O-Line, LB, The Blitz, ILB, and Spencer Havner

2009-11-05T06:41:24Z

More photos » by Mike Roemer - AP

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Mike McCarthy addressed a few big points in his Wednesday press conference.

QB Aaron Rodgers didn't practice due to his foot sprain, but McCarthy said "I fully anticipate him playing in the game."
RT Mark Tauscher "took the majority of the reps" and LT Chad Clifton "looked healthy today."
C Jason Spitz's lower back injury is "just kind of not making progress" so C Scott Wells looks to remain the starter for a while longer.
LB A.J. Hawk "will take the majority of the reps in both the base and nickel" in place of LB Brandon Chillar, as he recovers from his hand surgery. Why won't LB Desmond Bishop start? Because "based on our evaluations...someone goes in front of the other."
On the blitz packages: "Our number one target was to be better in run defense, so we're doing a better job there, and I think we'll continue to grow in our pressure packages throughout our other situations."
On penalties: "Trust me, Johnny Jolly has been spoken to."
TE Jermichael Finley is probably out again on Sunday. His absence hasn't been noticed in large part due to TE Spencer Havner, about who McCarthy said "He runs better than than people think that he does, and he's been productive. He's got very natural hands. You've always seen that in his time here...I'm very proud of him."

Status of The Packers Post Week 8

2009-11-04T19:50:26Z

Week 8's loss to the Vikings has left many of us Packers fans in shambles but the outlook for the rest of the season is not so bleak. As it stands right now, if the playoffs were to start today, the Packers would be on the outside looking in but that does not mean that we don't control our own destiny due to our second half schedule. By dissecting the first 8 weeks of the season and breaking down the team by positions hopefully we can clearly the muddy waters that has been the Packers season thus far.

Offense

Quarterback

We all understand that Aaron Rodgers is an upper echelon quarterback but the way he has been playing is not only dictated by the position he is in. It doesn't matter if you put Rodgers behind the NFC's Pro Bowl offensive line, he just isn't giving himself a chance to be successful. His stats show that he is clearly having a great season but numbers only go so far without game film. Aaron is holding onto the ball for too long, this could mean one of two things, either Mike McCarthy is calling a bad game because his routes are taking too much time to develop against talented pass rushers like Jared Allen, or Aaron Rodgers is not going through his progressions properly. Against a team like the Vikings, who in my opinion have the best defensive line in football, he has to understand that his progressions have to be quicker and he has to be able to check down or throw away the ball before being hit. On the lighter side of this, Rodgers has displayed his athletic side as he stands second in rushing on the Packers. Obviously the sacks are not all his fault, (the offensive line will be addressed later) but to take that next step in his progression towards becoming an elite quarterback, he has to start to understand the game on a level that only elite quarterbacks can.

Wide Receiver

As usual, WR is a strong point of the Packers but the production is coming from different sources then the past few years. Most experts predicted that Greg Jennings would be the focus of the offence, thus moving him into the realm of top receivers in the NFL, surprising to most, Jennings is off to a slow start. The bulk of the receiving load has been carried by steady veteran Donald Driver, who leads the Packers in almost all receiving categories. The signs coming from Driver are very positive as some experts predicted his eventual demise due to age. The third and fourth receiver spots are nearly interchangeable with James Jones and Jordy Nelson playing key parts in 3 and 4 receiver sets. Unfortunately for Nelson, he has been sidelined for a significant portion of time and was unable to contribute, leaving the door open for James Jones who has been alright but nothing spectacular. The 5th receiver spot has been left vacant after the season ending injury to Brett Swain. The receivers should continue to be solid throughout the year but for the Packers to dominate like they did in the preseason, they are going to need Greg Jennings to return to his deep threat form.

Running Backs

The primary runner for the Packers over the past three seasons has been Ryan Grant and it has become painfully obvious that he probably will not return back to 2007 breakout form. To the dismay of many, the Packers seem to be one of the only teams in the NFL to not deploy a running back by comity system, essentially because Ryan Grant is the only NFL starting caliber running back on the Packers roster. The addition of Ahman Green and the success of Brandon Jackson on third down is nice but the Packers need a second option to run the ball with consistency. Obviously this saviour back is not going to come out of nowhere midseason (Samkon Gado and 2007 Ryan Grant happen to disagree) but for the Packers to have success in the future, they must improve at this position. As for the rest of the season, lets keep our collective fingers crossed that Ryan Grant stays healthy and keeps up his average performances.

Offensive Line

The Packers offensive line has been exactly that, downright offensive. With different combinations seemingly each week, fans are subject to the horror of watching the oppositions best pass rusher, (Jared Allen, Antwan Odom, Adewale Ogunleye) bear down on the future of the Packers franchise. This constant barrage of sacks seems to be getting to Aaron Rodgers and beyond staying healthy, he has to stay confident for us to win. Its not to say that Mike McCarthy hasn't been trying though, LT Chad Clifton and C Jason Spitz have been injured for multiple games thus throwing rookie T.J Lang and former starter Scott Wells into the fire, or forcing McCarthy to move LG Daryn Colledge to LT thus moving Spitz to LG. Despite the attempted quick fixes, the Packer had nearly zero success in the trenches thus far. On that note, a life raft is heading our way with the return of Chad Clifton and the eventual return of Mark Tauscher, recently resigned off the free agent wire. Putting T.J Lang and Allen Babre back on the bench can hopefully help stop the bleeding because if these problems aren't fixed, the Packers will sink faster then the titanic.

Tight Ends

Jermichael Finley has finally started to produce with some consistency, unfortunately he is sidelined with an injury, allowing Donald Lee to step back into the role as the primary receiving threat from the tight end position. The surprise of the season has been the recent effectiveness of Special Team/Linebacker/Tight End Spencer Havner in the red zone. Havner has three touchdowns in two games and him and Rodgers seem to be on the same page. With the eventual return of Finley and the emergence of Havner, the Packers look fine at the tight end position.

Full Back

The Packers enjoy running out of the full house back field allowing them to use two full backs, Korey Hall and John Kuhn, but that has not been the case this season. With Korey Hall down with an injury, the Packers have changed there approach allowing John Kuhn to be the goal line back and letting rookie Quinn Johnson take over the majority of blocking duties. To an extent this has been successful and it seems the Packers will deploy these looks for the remainder of the season.

Defense

Defensive Line

The success of the defensive line has, and will continue to be, a very big factor in the success of the team. The nose tackle position has been the most consistent position along the line due to Ryan Pickett's successful first half. As for the defensive ends, they have been nonexistent at times but when the rotation of B.J Raji, Cullen Jenkins and Johnny Jolly show up, they have been very solid.The Packers improved run defense is in large part due to the success of the line but in order for the Packers to make that jump they must get some sort of pass rush working in obvious passing situations.

Linebackers

The transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 has not come easy for the Packers this year, especially for the linebackers. The first half was not up to expectations for this revamped, Dom Capers led defense and most of the blame is shifting towards the linebackers and the play calling. As expected, Aaron Kampman has been seemingly lost in pass coverage and has been less effective in rushing the passer without his hand in the ground, these factors alone made him a commodity prior to the trade deadline. The Houdini act that A.J Hawk is playing with Packers fans is really puzzling as he will have games where he has 9 tackles then a week later he will only play 9 snaps. The spotty play of A.J Hawk has opened the way for a nice rotation at the inside linebacker position involving Nick Barnett, Hawk, Brandon Chillar and occasionally Desmond Bishop. Once again the solid run defense is in large part to the sideline to sideline abilities these athletes have and this should continue throughout the season. The best player amongst the linebackers has been rookie OLB Clay Matthews who seems to get better every snap he takes. After taking over the starting position during the Packers visit to the Metro Dome, he has been imposing his will on opposing running backs and quarterbacks. The continued improvement of Matthews along with the use of Aaron Kampman in a three point stance on obvious passing downs will hopefully create more pressure leading to more success, failing these things the Packers should BLITZ every so often.

Cornerbacks

The duo of Al Harris and Charles Woodson haven't exactly been showing their age, but they haven't been locking down either. The Dom Camper's defensive scheme is not something Al Harris is used to because it does not call for him to be physical at the line thus devaluing his play slightly. Charles Woodson on the other hand is playing up to his ability at this point in his career, which is still a very high level. The one aspect which puzzles me a lot is that Charles Woodson has not been called up to blitz as often as he should. In the preseason the Packers used many exotic blitz packages including using Woodson in many of them and we all know the success of the Packers defense in the preseason. As for the nickel position, I have been very impressed with the play of Tramon Williams. Quietly, Tramon is in on many plays and he rarely gets beat. As long as the Packers can generate a decent pass rush their secondary should be more then adequate.

Safeties

When healthy, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins make up a more then formidable duo, but healthy is the key word in that statement. Atari missed significant time earlier in the season opening up space to put in the revolving doors of Aaron Rouse (on the NY Giants now) and Darrick Martin and needless to say they lacked the skill to be regular NFL players. Nick Collins could miss some time after sustaining an injury in the Vikings game and that could spell trouble for the Packers. The run support from Atari Bigby is a strength as usual and when both are playing, they have not been the source of the problems. Once again the problems stem from the lack of pressure, bringing Atari up to the line for a few blitzes would not be a bad idea because he has shown proficiency at this in the past.

Upcoming Schedule

Our next game which is @ Tampa Bay should look very much like the Cleveland and Detroit games so nothing should be taken from that game. Dallas and San Fran coming to Lambeau have wild card implications and even though it is still fairly early, every game is important from here on. After that the Packers to Detroit for the Thanksgiving game which should be another cupcake. The hardest part of our season is Baltimore, @ Chicago and @ Pittsburgh where it would be ideal if we came out with two wins, these games will see if the Packers are a Playoff team. Then we finish with Seattle and across the country @ Arizona. The last two game will probably be must wins and the Packers may be in luck depending on how well Arizona does in the second half, they could see alot of back ups in a must win scenario.

Predicted Final Record- 10-6

Whether 10-6 will get us a playoff spot is yet to be seen.

The Run Defense

2009-11-04T13:15:18Z

by Jim Prisching - AP

6 days ago: Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson (28) is stopped for a loss by Green Bay Packers' Clay Matthews (52) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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I've read a lot of negative comments/articles about the Green Bay Packers defense this week. Allowing 38 points to the Vikings can do that. And they can't give up 4 TD passes. But the special teams, and the terrible kick coverage on WR Percy Harvin, gave the Vikings a lot of great field position. It's not an excuse, but it's also one game. A very emotionally, bitter loss to swallow, but not a trend or sign of some deeper trouble.

In an attempt to turn a negative tide positive, I wanted to bring up how great the run defense has played this season. The switch to the 3-4 defense hasn't necessarily made a very good pass defense any better, or brought a dormant pass rush to life, but teams can't run against it.

In 2008, the run defense was terrible, allowing 4.6 yards/carry and 20 TDs. Through 7 games in 2009, they've allowed 3.5 yards/carry and 3 TDs. And they've done it despite having 4 games against 3 of the best RBs in the NFL: RB Adrian Peterson, RB Steven Jackson, and RB Cedric Benson.

What has stood out is how hard it is to run up the middle. Dom Capers' defense is designed to force the runner outside, where the RB can get pinned in by the sideline and CB or OLB can make the tackle. There are a lot more defensive bodies in the middle this season, with three defensive tackles (DE Johnny Jolly, NT Ryan Pickett, and DE Cullen Jenkins) usually starting on the line bunched up inside the offensive tackles. Plus the extra inside linebacker, usually Brandon Chillar lined up next to Nick Barnett.

It was quite a contrast to watch the Falcons at Saints game on Monday night. These are two contending teams, but RB Michael Turner gashed the Saints run defense for 7.6 yards/carry and 1 TD, while RB Pierre Thomas did the same to the Falcons for 6.5 yards/carry and 1 TD. On the season, the Falcons have allowed 4.5 yards/carry, and the Saints 4.4 yards/carry.

The two things any team should do is stop the run and throw the ball. If a team falls behind, they can rally because the opponent can't run out the clock and then they can move the ball quickly down the field in the air. The Packers almost did this, in both games against the Vikings: come behind from a huge deficit because the Vikings didn't control the clock and the Packers almost passed their way back.

LB Brandon Chillar Out For "A Couple of Weeks"

2009-11-04T05:43:16Z

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

6 days ago: Green Bay Packers' Brandon Chillar (54) and Minnesota Vikings' Phil Loadholt (71) scramble for Vikings fumble during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers recovered the fumble. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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I should have posted this yesterday. The Green Bay Packers will be without starting ILB Brandon Chillar for at least the next game against the Bucs. From Mike McCarthy:

We had a number of players banged up from the game, but the one significant injury, Brandon Chillar had a broken hand. He will have surgery today, and with the information that will come out of the surgery, the forecast will probably be a couple of weeks, and I think he'll then be able to play with a club.

Although the coaches obviously prefer him over LB A.J. Hawk or LB Desmond Bishop, his absence for 1 or 2 games is not a big loss. Hawk or Bishop replace most of what Chillar provides at inside linebacker. It appeared that Hawk and Bishop rotated in place of Chillar against the Vikings, but it didn't seem to be broken down by passing vs. rushing downs. As much as I'd like to see Hawk fulfill some of his potential, I hope it's Bishop who plays most of the time in Chillar's absence.

What to make of this team

2009-11-04T03:48:36Z

I'm sure most of you have read what Cullen Jenkins had to say after Sunday's game in which the defense gave up four passing touchdowns to Brett Favre and the Vikings. And I'm sure some of you have also read what ESPN.com NFC North Blogger Kevin Seifert makes of the situation. This defense is in trouble, right? Just look at the three games played against legit NFL Offenses, doesn't look that much different than last year, does it? Maybe we're just kidding ourselves that this can be a playoff team, specifically one that can hold a good NFL offense in check. Maybe this defense just isn't going to get it done.

Geez, but then look at the rankings. Our defense is in the top ten in both scoring and total defense. And so what if we only shut out Detroit. I mean Pittsburgh gave up twenty points to Detroit.

But now of all times, is when we could actually stand to listen to some advice of two brothers from Minnesota of all places. For those of you who saw the Coen Brothers' newest movie 'A Serious Man', perhaps you remember this quote on the screen just as the film started.

"Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you."

-Rashi

The problem with the Packer's season so far, is that we haven't really faced much league average competition. Of course thats bound to happen when league average teams are at such a premium at the moment. In the three wins against the cellar dwellers, the defense performed at or above expectations. In the three losses against what looks to be very good teams, the defense performed at or below expectations. There's really been so little to go on to formulate expectations for the rest of the year, not only for the defense but for the entire team, and thats what has been most frustrating for me so far this season.

I mean, I have as good a grasp on this team as I did opening day, which in short means not much.

I think because of this, this season, more than any other I've followed, I've been particularly antsy between games and that really gets frustrating. I've tried to teach myself not to put too much stock into the previous week's game in assessing our chances for the rest of the season, but due to the bipolar competitive nature of our opponents this year, even thats become hard. I almost want the Packers and the defense to have a statement game one way or the other just so I can get a grasp.

We don't know, we just don't know how good this defense or team can be. Seeing as the Coen Brothers' 'A Serious Man' is a 1960's retelling of the story of Job, all of us Packer fans could sure exhibit some patience, including myself.

The Day After: Green Bay Packers Loss To The Vikings

2009-11-03T13:15:27Z

More photos » by Mike Roemer - AP

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On the Green Bay Packers offensive line. From Mike McCarthy:

Offensive line, I'm going to take the week, very similar to last week. I'm going to see how Chad Clifton progresses through the week. I also want to see how Mark Tauscher progresses through the week. Then have an opportunity to grade the film this morning and go through the corrections today with the offensive linemen who played in the game. We'll take that through the week, just very similar to what we did last week.

DE Cullen Jenkins on "things". From the Journal-Sentinel:

"It's tough. We have players who are good at doing stuff and we're not doing it. You want to win, and when you're not winning those things you start questioning, is it that people really want to win or they really want to accomplish another goal, just running what they want to run? I don't know. It's tough, though."

McCarthy's response:

(In addition to what Jolly said, did you see the things Cullen Jenkins had to say about the defense?)
Yes I did. Jeff just made me aware of them. Our schedule doesn't change. I've been with the coaches all morning, going through the tape. Cullen and I will have a conversation.

Maybe there are limits to what the things the new 3-4 defense can do. From the Press-Gazette:

The Packers’ defensive coordinator deployed an extra rusher on seven of Favre’s 25 dropbacks — 28 percent, up from 17.2 on Oct. 5. But with the exception of one ball ILB Nick Barnett knocked out of the veteran’s hand, Favre sliced and diced, completing 5 of 7 passes for 59 yards and the clinching touchdown against the blitz.

On the Vikings. From Aaron Schatz:

The Vikings are awfully impressive. They've turned into an all-around team this year. Adding Brett Favre is part of that, of course, but the receivers have really improved. Sidney Rice has blossomed, and Percy Harvin is excellent for a rookie. On defense, they're getting on without Antoine Winfield. Their weakest unit now is probably the linebackers, but even they are league average.

Why Ryan Grant Isn't The Answer

2009-11-02T20:15:18Z

Ryan Grant is an enigma of sorts. He is a starting running back in the NFL, yet he is widely regarded as a player with above-average skills at best. He is good at many things, but great at nothing. Even his Scouts Inc. profile from ESPN.com shows how he is simultaneously impressive and limited.

He doesn't have outstanding speed but runs well and has quickness and burst to hit the hole...He has good power to move the pile, but wouldn't be considered an explosive ball carrier...He has adequate hands as a target in the passing game but isn't dangerous in the open field after the catch.

To sum up Ryan Grant's career to this point: "meh." He doesn't have the size of Brandon Jacobs, or the elusiveness of Adrian Peterson, or the power of Michael Turner, or the agility of LaDanian Tomlinson, or the vision of Ronnie Brown, or the afterburner speed of Chris Johnson. He has those things in smaller amounts, but not enough to be considered special.

Despite his rather pedestrian profile, Grant has respectible numbers over his 3-year career: 2654 yards, 15 touchdowns, and a ypc average of 4.3. He has a reputation of being able to produce despite his physical limitations, and that reputation has dubbed him the main rusher on one of the few teams that does not employ a running-back-by-committee.

My question is this: Should Ryan Grant be the lone ball-carrier on the Packers?

In order to explore this question, we first have to look at the state of the running back position in Green Bay since 2007, when Grant burst onto the scene. In 2007, Grant was behind the likes of Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn. It took all the way until Week 8 (the Denver OT game) for Grant to establish himself in the Packer backfield, and even then it was only due to injuries to those in front of him.

In 2008, Grant was the unquestioned starter, and Jackson and Wynn were contributors. That trend continued to this season, with a minor change in personnel. DeShawn Wynn managed to find his way onto the injured reserve list (again), so former Packer Pro Bowler Ahman Green takes his place. Despite his history, Green's addition does little to threaten Grant's job security; the starting job belongs to Ryan Grant until someone is added to the roster that can compete for the position.

While it might be remiss to dismiss Grant's 2007 campaign, I contend that he remained the starter simply because nobody else was good enough to take his place. Brett Favre's 2007 season was as stellar as it was unexpected; defenses had to focus more on the pass, thus opening up running lanes. Almost anybody could have put up decent numbers on that offense so long as they could run without getting winded.

While the story of the undrafted Notre Dame product breaking onto the scene is a popular one, players don't (or at least shouldn't) get paid based on backstory. They get paid for performance; sometimes past, but more often projected. Ryan Grant's major payday during the summer of 2007 was somewhat understated compared to the media frenzy that followed the team (and still does, as we saw from Sunday). But make no mistake, Grant's new contract was based more on the past and less on the future.

From a PR standpoint, I understand why they gave Grant his money. With all the tension pervading the Green Bay fanbase before the 2008 season, the organization needed to do something that the fans could agree upon. What better way to ease that pressure than to extend the contract of a player who had just gained nearly 1,000 yards in half a season? But from a talent and, more importantly, a projected performance standpoint, I think Grant is vastly overpaid.

Let me be clear that I like Ryan Grant and want him on the team. However, I don't think he is being properly used in the offense and the offense is being held back as a result.

Obviously, there's no way I can make these claims without at least attempting to back them up with factual evidence. Therefore, I submit Exhibit A: Ryan Grant's career statistics, supplied by NFL.com. NFL.com has a wonderful feature called "Situational Stats" that breaks down a player's numbers by more in-depth metrics than just per-game or per-carry. These different metrics really show what kind of running back Grant is and why he's being mis-used.

* * *

The first one is dividing Grant's production by the number of attempts he receives. NFL running backs typically carry the ball 20 times in a game. The best way to break down a running back's production is to look at how many yards he gains on attempts 1 through 10, then how much he gains on 11 through 20, and finally anything above carry number 21.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1-10	352	1624	4.6	9
11-20	241	992	4.1	8
21+	75	298	4.0	1

As you can see, Grant's numbers start to take a dip once he gets past his tenth carry in a given game. While I like to see coaches stick with the run throughout a game in order to get the back into a rhythm, Grant hasn't demonstrated the ability to maintain a consistent ability to get yards as the game wears on. Another way to show this is to divide Grant's yardage totals by his career number of games.

Carries	Yards per game
1-10	46.4
11-20	28.3
21+	8.5

No wonder Mike McCarthy doesn't stick with the run. Anytime Grant carries more than ten times, his yards gained for the second decuplet of carries is halved. Halved! For a back who's known for explosive gains throughout a game, it sure seems like he can't do much after his tenth attempt.

* * *

The second metric is simpler: it compares Ryan Grant's numbers in the first and second halves of games. While it's more rudimentary, it better shows how consistent (or inconsistent) a back is throughout a game.

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
1st Half	367	1634	4.5	15
2nd Half	300	1278	4.3	3

Surprisingly, this breakdown doesn't show as big of a drop off in any category besides touchdowns. He has fewer yards on fewer carries in the second half, which might be a result of the trailing team focusing more on the pass to ignite the offense. By dividing his totals by his total number of games, however, the discrepancy is a bit more visible.

	Attempts/game	Yards/game
1st Half	10.8	48.1
2nd Half	8.8	37.6

The carries per half are nearly even, but the yardage is not. Again, this might be a result of the Packers being forced into passing on offense, but conventional wisdom suggests that there would be more available on the ground. Grant has not found that room in the second half, even though he's getting the same opportunities.

* * *

The third metric is not available directly on NFL.com, but I went and dug up the stats from each individual box score from 2007, 2008, and 2009 to compile the numbers. I don't have an official name for it yet, but it measures Grant's production based on what percentage of the team's carries he is responsible for. I tried to quantify how well Grant performed when he received a minority of the carries (< 50%), a significant share (51-74%), and a majority (>75%).

% of team carries	Games	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
< 50%	5	36	215	6.0	1
51-74%	14	247	1118	4.5	6
> 75%	16	345	1351	3.9	8

While the discrepancies in sample sizes skews the numbers somewhat, it's clear that whenever Grant is more responsible for the rushing offense, he is less effective. Workhorse backs often produce the best whenever they get the bulk of the carries from their offense, and that's how Grant has been treated. However, the numbers simply don't support the notion that Grant needs a large amount of touches to be effective. This is more obvious when you divide the statistical totals by the number of games played.

% of team carries	Games	Attempts/game	Yards/game	Average/game	TDs/game
< 50%	5	7.2	43.0	6.0	0.2
51-74%	14	19.0	86.0	4.5	0.5
> 75%	16	21.6	84.4	3.9	0.5

As you can see, whenever Grant's carries push him into the third category of team carry %, he actually gains fewer yards per game despite the additional opportunities. Conversely, whenever Grant gets minimal opportunities, he seems to do the most with them. He gains yards more efficiently with fewer carries, and he clearly starts to wear down after his twentieth attempt.

* * *

I'm no statistician, but even I'm shocked at how much the numbers back the argument. Ryan Grant simply isn't consistent enough to be the running back that McCarthy wants him to be. Is he effective? In certain situations, yes. But I don't think that he should be a 20+ carry workhorse; he simply isn't that kind of player.

Ted Simmons Speed Camp said it best in response to the question "What happened to Ryan Grant?"

The rest of the league realized he's really a complimentary back.

Shortly thereafter, ktenreb summed up Ryan Grant's football career, how he arrived in Green Bay, why he succeeded, and the circumstances that led to his big payday:

He was a part-time starter in college on a bad Notre Dame team. TT’s plan for finding a f3eature running didn’t work (surprise!), and so at the beginning of the 2007 season it looked like the team needed some depth. TT spent a 6th round pick for what he assumed would be a third-string back who had decent hands (yes, he actually did). Jacobs didn’t work out, Wynne got hurt and lacked toughness, so Grant got his shot. His timing couldn’t have been better, because by that point of the season McCarthy and Favre had abandoned any chance of running the ball (remember, we were so bad on the O-line that we were playing with a gimmick zone-blocking scheme, to cover the lack of talent) and were killing opposing defenses with a 5 WR formation. Defenses adjusted by dropping 5 and 6 into coverage in nickel and dime defenses — against those defenses, Grant was able to run. He killed opposing defenses, and when they countered with putting more men in the box, Favre went back to killing them with slants.

After that season, Grant was a hot commodity to fans, but "real" GMs knew that it was a fluke. In fairness, Thompson knew it too, but he still stubbornly sat on his hands and took no steps to bring in a truly first-rate running back. Grant held out, and Thompson ultimately was forced to give him the big payday.

During that same summer, there was something about a quarterback/GM feud in Packerland that also was prominent, the result being that the quarterback who could run the 5 WR sets was no longer around. As the season began, Grant was not 100 percent healthy as a result of his contract holdout. He seemed to get healthier as the season progressed, and he gained over 1,000 yards, but it was pretty clear that he did not have the vision that first-rate running backs possess. Still, he was the best option on the roster and he got his carries, but at the rate of under four yards-per.

This year is the same as last year, except that Grant doesn’t have an injury excuse (at least not that I know of). The offensive line has regressed from last year, but Grant still does not show that he is truly a feature back. That was the knock against him in college, and that’s why the Giants were happy to dump him for a 6th round pick. 2007 was a fluke occasioned by a perfect storm of opportunity. It won’t happen again, and Ryan Grant is not going to turn into a genuine feature back in the NFL (unless he plays a very bad team with horrible injuries at a time when its roster is decimated by the flu).

That, my friends, is a great comment that should have been turned into a FanPost. But is he right?

For what it's worth, I think so. I think Grant can be very effective as a member of a committee, instead of a lone workhorse. Remember how the Giants used Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward with great success? That's the type of setup I'd like to see Grant in, with Brandon Jackson playing the role of the change-of-pace back. Then again, this is all assuming that the real problem isn't with Grant, but with his blocking, which is a very real possibility.

Man, the Thompson haters are going to have a field day with this one...and the sad thing is that they may have a point.

Recap: Vikings Defeat Green Bay Packers 38-26

2009-11-02T14:00:41Z

More photos » by Jeffrey Phelps - AP

6 days ago: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre, right, and Green Bay Packers' Donald Driver put their helmets together and embrace after the Vikings beat the Packers 38-26 in an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

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Right after the game, there was a Brief Recap post with my initial thoughts after the game. Take a look at that post for a brief summary of the game. After the jump is the specific break down from the play-by-play.

The only significant injury was LB Brandon Chillar, who has a broken hand. Luckily they've got a solid backup in LB Desmond Bishop, and it meant more playing time for LB A.J. Hawk too. We'll have to wait until later this week to see whether Chillar can have it placed in a cast and so he can continue to play. Even in the best case scenario, he should miss next week.

I'll give a break to rookie LT T.J. Lang. He's gotten thrown into a tough situation, and has gotten beaten badly by DE Jared Allen in 2 games against him. But he's shown some promise. Even if he did leave Allen unblocked on one sack. But as far as this season goes, it's great news that LT Chad Clifton will be back next week. Tom Pelissero said "[Clifton] expects to practice on Wednesday and be ready to face Tampa Bay."

There is no excuse for not benching RT Allen Barbre at this point. RT Mark Tauscher went through his first full practices last week, and is as ready as he is going to get.

Vikings vs Packers coverage; Vikings vs Packers recap; Vikings vs Packers boxscore; Daily Norseman

From the NFL.com play-by-play:

First Quarter:

(12:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 80-D.Driver ran ob at MIN 40 for 20 yards.

They had 20 yards on this play alone, but only 47 yards on offense in the 1st half. The receivers just started getting open in the 2nd half. They adjusted and figured out how to attack the Vikings' zone coverage.

(8:15) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 85-G.Jennings [56-E.Henderson].

I point this out because LB E.J. Henderson was in coverage. I've always thought of him as a run stopper, but he did a great job dropping back in coverage. LB Chad Greenway was great too. It was the hidden success of the Vikings pass defense early in this game.

(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre Aborted. 65-J.Sullivan FUMBLES at MIN 39, touched at MIN 35, RECOVERED by GB-97-J.Jolly at MIN 21. 97-J.Jolly to MIN 21 for no gain (76-S.Hutchinson).

One of the few mental mistakes the Vikings made in the game. Too bad the Packers only turned it into 3 points.

2-M.Crosby kicks 61 yards from GB 30 to MIN 9. 12-P.Harvin to GB 14 for 77 yards (30-J.Kuhn).

Just a horrible performance by the special teams in this entire game. Bad kickoffs, bad kick coverage, and a missed FG. P Jeremy Kapinos was OK, averaging 43.2 yards/punt. But he wasn't great either, and contributed to the overall bad field position. The Vikings only started with the ball 3 times inside their 35 yard line (all 3 led to punts). The Packers only started with the ball once out past their 35 yard line.

(3:40) 4-B.Favre pass short right to 29-C.Taylor to GB 14 for -5 yards (56-N.Barnett). PENALTY on GB-97-J.Jolly, Personal Foul, 7 yards, enforced at GB 14.

Usually Mike McCarthy doesn't say negative things about specific players during press conferences, but he called out the terrible personal foul on DE Johnny Jolly. They had them stopped on 3rd down, but he kept the drive alive and it led to a Vikings TD.

(1:21) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

I was glad to see Brad Childress go for it on 4th down here. He should have just taken the points. The Vikings took a couple risks that paid off for them.

Second Quarter:

(10:48) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-V.Shiancoe for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Close doesn't cut it, but that pass was right between CB Tramon Williams and SS Atari Bigby. There were several times in the game when the coverage was just a step late. Though Favre had too much time to pass and a perfect pocket to throw in. The pass rush was M.I.A. again against the Vikings.

(10:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -8 yards (69-J.Allen).

Troy Aikman was commentating, and said that Rodgers had to step up in the pocket to move away from edge rushers. But it didn't seem like he was walking into any sacks. It seemed like the tackles should have been doing more to push the defensive ends further downfield.

(9:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Jones (52-C.Greenway).

A great dive by Greenway to break up the pass on 3rd down.

(6:58) 28-A.Peterson right guard to GB 8 for -1 yards (50-A.Hawk, 79-R.Pickett).

A chance taken that backfired. They had a sure FG from 25 yards out, but Childress turned it down after a 5 yard penalty on 4th down got them within 1 yard of converting. NT Ryan Pickett had a monster game, and has bounced back big time from a disappointing 2008 season.

(3:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 19 for -4 yards (94-P.Williams).

On this sack, C Scott Wells missed the block and NT Pat Williams ran straight ahead for the sack. It was the only time someone other than DE Jared Allen or DE Ray Edwards got a sack. Once again the middle of the offense line did a solid job.

Third Quarter:

(13:20) 4-B.Favre pass deep middle to 12-P.Harvin for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-36-N.Collins was injured during the play.

I wrote earlier about chances taken by the Vikings that worked out. This was another one. Just a classic Favre heave-downfield-and-hope-something-good-happens. When he was a Packer, I saw this play get picked off all the time, but I didn't think much of it then because it would often act like a punt. Here Favre threw into triple coverage, but all the defensive backs collided with themselves trying to get to the ball, the defensive backs were just a step late again, and WR Percy Harvin grabbed it and ran for the TD. Dumb luck.

(13:03) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-G.Jennings pushed ob at MIN 40 for 30 yards (20-M.Williams).

After only 47 yards of offense in the 1st half, this was a welcome sight.

(8:31) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

I wanted them to kick the FG. After such a dismal 1st half on offense, they couldn't walk away with nothing on this good opening drive.

2-M.Crosby kicks 36 yards from GB 30 to MIN 34. 96-B.Robison to MIN 42 for 8 yards (50-A.Hawk). FUMBLES (50-A.Hawk), RECOVERED by GB-36-N.Collins at MIN 41. 36-N.Collins to MIN 41 for no gain (33-J.Sanford).

One of the other few plays that went wrong for the Vikings. Just take a knee Robison.

(6:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 41-S.Havner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

A great throw by Rodgers. The safety was all over TE Spencer Havner, and Rodgers threw it out and low where only Havner could make a play on it. I'm really impressed with Havner's hands; he seems to catch anything that comes his way.

(5:57) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 34-A.Green pushed ob at GB 28 for 12 yards (23-C.Griffin).

OK, it was neat to see RB Ahman Green back as a Packer. Though I don't think he does anything RB Brandon Jackson can't do.

(5:21) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones pushed ob at MIN 30 for 42 yards (20-M.Williams).

This deep crossing route was there for Driver, Jennings, and now Jones. It can't be run all game, but it did seem like the place to attack the Vikings zone coverage.

(2:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 41-S.Havner for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Havner again. The Vikings seemed to forget about him in the coverage scheme.

2-M.Crosby kicks 56 yards from GB 30 to MIN 14. 12-P.Harvin pushed ob at GB 38 for 48 yards (38-T.Williams).

Another great return, another short field for the Vikings.

Fourth Quarter:

(14:16) 29-C.Taylor left end to GB 2 for 8 yards (36-N.Collins).

LB Clay Matthews had a great game. He seemed to spend a lot of time in the Vikings backfield. But he was running around before the snap, and by the time he got back in position he was blocked out by WR Sidney Rice and RB Chester Taylor ran right past him. It got the ball down to the 2 yard line and made the TD off the play action pass to the tight end possible.

(11:37) 12-A.Rodgers right end ran ob at MIN 15 for 35 yards (41-K.Paymah).

It might seem like he's taking a big risk running for all those yards, but he's still probably safer in the open field then in the pocket...

(10:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on MIN-41-K.Paymah, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

It's been a disappointing season for Jennings, but that was a great catch. He reached down and got it while the defender was illegally draped all over him.

(7:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers Aborted. 63-S.Wells FUMBLES at GB 27, recovered by GB-12-A.Rodgers at GB 27. 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 80-D.Driver to 50 for 17 yards (21-A.Allen) [91-R.Edwards]. GB-80-D.Driver was injured during the play. PENALTY on MIN-91-R.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

An incredible play by Rodgers. He scoops up the bad snap just as the pocket is collapsing, but is still able to take a step and find Driver. And take a big hit at the end.

(5:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Driver (22-B.Sapp).

(5:43) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

I thought this was the end of the game when it happened. Kicking the FG was probably the right thing because Rodgers had just taken (another) hit on the play before and limped off the field. They were still only down by 5 points after the miss, but time was running out. They just could not afford the miss, but Crosby pushed it right. It had the distance and it didn't appear tipped.

(5:38) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 28-A.Peterson to GB 15 for 44 yards (55-D.Bishop, 20-A.Bigby).

It's not surprised they allowed a big run right after the deflating FG miss. Too bad it happened and ruined a great statistical game by the run defense, who held Peterson to only 53 yards on his other 24 carries.

(3:54) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 87-B.Berrian for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Once again, the coverage was almost there. Not that almost counts. It was a game of inches.

(2:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones to MIN 48 for 15 yards (23-C.Griffin). PENALTY on GB-78-A.Barbre, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 37 - No Play.

But this was the true end of the game, and the end of any explanation for starting Barbre over Tauscher. Barbre allowed 2 sacks, and I don't know how many big hits (at least that one shot Rodgers took to the ribs from DT Jimmy Kennedy). Jones got the ball into Vikings territory for a 1st down, but it came back on the holding penalty. I was willing to give Barbre the benefit of the doubt up to this game. He's a first year starter, he's getting better, etc. I hadn't even thought too much about the sacks in this game, up to this point, but that penalty was the end.

The Aftermath

2009-11-02T05:42:07Z

Somehow I always kind of figured it would wind up like this.

10 years ago to the day, Mike Holmgren returned to Lambeau Field for the first time as coach of the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks easily disposed of the Packers that day.

And today, a Packers hero that everyone had figured would spend his life in the green and gold trotted out onto the "frozen tundra" wearing the hated Vikings colors. Both of these Packers' heroes moved on because the team hadn't given them everything that they wanted.

But I think it's pretty obvious that this loss stung more.

What to say in the wake of such a loss? Well, subtracting out the larger interest story, the Packers played one half of football and still had the opportunity to drive down and win the game in the 4th quarter. You have to be pretty proud of that if you're a Packers fan. You also have to be proud of Aaron Rodgers - getting up after shot after shot, hobbling around on a clearly tender ankle, but still gutting it out and helping the Packers back into the game.

Green Bay is sitting at 4-3 and is basically an "above average" team at this point. They can dominate lesser competition, play well against equal competition, but not quite get it done against elite teams. Two of their three losses were at the hands of the Vikings, whom they don't have to play anymore. It's obvious that they are only as strong as their weakest link - the offensive line. If the offensive line improves, they will probably make the playoffs and be a very dangerous team.

Mike McCarthy has to get the penalties under control. There needs to be some semblance of a running game, although the lack thereof is probably due to offensive line struggles. And we need to have smarter special teams. Why kick the ball deep to Percy Harvin after several short kickoffs had succeeded? And in the offseason, Ted Thompson needs to bring in more talent on the offensive line.

But this game was about so much more. Brett got his revenge. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for Packers fans. To the casual observer, or intrigued NFL fan, this seems like a great story. Team disowns player. Player travels tough road. Player gets shot at old team. Player beats old team. But the story is so much more complicated than that, and Packers fans know the ugly details.

"I loved Brett as a Packer. I loved him as a person, and I never saw a better football player. And for him to be in a Viking uniform, (it) turns my heart cold. I think of him as a traitor. He let millions of Packer fans down. That's why it hurts. They are going to boo him and they are going to try to run him right off the field." said Fuzzy Thurston, former Packer great. (Source)

For years, the Packers had endured the will-Favre-retire questions after every season. To the rest of the NFL it was just a passing headline, a curiosity. It seemed like the typical situation with an aging NFL star. But the problem was that it happened for many seasons. And it impacted the Packers draft strategies, personnel movements, etc.

Brett Favre actually did retire on March 4, 2008 in a tearful press conference. He said that he had given it all he had and that he was done. Not surprisingly, this allowed the Packers to finally draft for the quarterback position, and they spent two 2008 draft choices on quarterbacks a month later (Brohm, Flynn). In the same time frame, Aaron Rodgers was named the starting quarterback and he started to bond with his team. The Packers were set at the quarterback position, they had planned for the future, and the team was coming together around Aaron Rodgers. This CBS Sports article summarizes a few points nicely:

We've already been here with Favre, remember. We were here last year, too. He announced after the 2006 season that he would decide shortly whether to retire or return in 2007. Shortly dragged on and on, getting in the way of the Packers' offseason plans. Finally Favre decided to return, but only after milking the process for every headline he could get.

It's sad, but it's predictable. He did it again after the 2007 season, saying a decision would come within days, and he was right on the money if by "days" he meant 46 of them. The Packers' season ended Jan. 20 in the NFC title game. He announced his retirement March 6. That means the entire month of February came and went without a decision from Favre -- and this was a leap year.

He must think that building a football team is as simple as looking onto the practice field in July and seeing who shows up. Never mind that the team has to build its offensive personnel, not to mention its entire payroll, around a roster that will, or won't, have a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Right around the time the draft happened, rumors started swirling about Brett mulling a come back. Did he say anything to that effect to the Packers organization?

When asked at the end of Wednesday's NFC coaches breakfast at the NFL meetings in Palm Beach, Fla., whether Favre might un-retire, Packers coach Mike McCarthy replied: "Time will tell. I don't think so. He's content with his decision. When I talked to him, he'd just gotten off a bulldozer moving trees. He definitely doesn't miss the offseason program.

So, at the beginning of April, Brett Favre had communicated no desire to return. The Packers drafted accordingly, and they were moving on. But then July came around, and things went downhill in a hurry. On July 2nd, reports started coming out that Brett wanted to return to the team. After missing all of the offseason conditioning, and watching the Packers make personnel moves to replace him, all while never indicating a desire to return, he decided that it was time to make a glorious return to Titletown.

Of course, this put the Packers in a very difficult position. They could either go with the status quo and risk alienating a Packers' legend, or they could backtrack all of their offseason planning, bring Brett back, and alienate Aaron Rodgers, while likely having to cut one of their two quarterbacks that were drafted. In effect, the latter would be a waste of two quarterbacks, as one would be cut, and Aaron Rodgers probably would have wanted to move on.

Not surprisingly, Ted Thompson replied to Brett's July 11th letter asking for an unconditional release by denying the request and committing to Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback again. He made the smart decision, one that would have the least net negative impact on the entire team, and one that he still catches flak for today.

And this is the point at which Brett showed his colors. He went on "On The Record With Greta Van Susteren" from July 14th through July 15th. He accused the Packers of being dishonest, spoke of his disappointment with Packers management, and said that both parties should just move on.

Obviously we all know how this ends. The question for me has always been this:

If Brett Favre really cared about the Packers organization, if he really cared about them being successful in the present and in the future, why would he force their hand like this?

And I've never been able to answer that. It started with Brett getting the itch to play again. However, when he found out that the Packers' universe didn't revolve around him anymore, he became hell bent on getting revenge against the Packers leadership - the guys who, in his mind, "forced him out of town". Never mind that the Packers had patiently waited, as usual, for months, waiting for him to waffle back onto the team for another season.

Brett didn't care that his return would tear a huge gash in the Packers' relationship with Aaron Rodgers. He didn't care that it started a huge media circus around the team and the training camp, something that noticeably distracted players and coaches. He didn't care. It was all about him. First he wanted to play, and then he wanted to get even.

And this lack of caring for the organization who launched his career, the organization that loved him, the fans that loved him, and the teammates that loved him, is the betrayal. That is why this loss stings so much. He wanted to get his revenge, and didn't care if it was at the cost of tearing Packers Nation apart. He slogged through one year with the Jets, knowing that he was going to bide his time until he could get back into the NFC North Division. Even when he was with the Jets, he admitted that was where he wanted to go.

Even after the FOX News interview, the Packers tried to be accommodating. They even offered to let him come into camp and compete for the job. But Brett didn't want to have to compete for anything - not like the other guys out on the practice field who had already poured their hearts out with effort in training camp. He wanted the job to be handed to him. And one can't help but notice the same trend with how he joined the Vikings. He waited until the week after training camp had ended, before signing. He wanted to step in, on a good team, without having to go through the hard work like everyone else, and just play.

It was the same boyish attitude that made Favre so appealing and likeable early in his career. The guy just loved to play, and he had fun doing it. But the Packers needed a player who was committed to working as hard as everyone else, and showing up in the offseason just like everyone else.

And so, here we are. The Packers - the organization that made the right moves and tried to accommodate Brett while still being faithful to promises made to Aaron Rodgers, and their offseason planning, lost the grudge match today on Lambeau Field; it was on the same field that Brett became a legend. And Brett, the player who returned to get even, well, got even. And somehow, the Packers will likely get made out to be the bad guys in all of this.

Let me close by sharing a little memory. In the 1997 season, I met Brett Favre after a game. The guy seemed carefree and just chatted with me for a couple of minutes about nothing in particular. He talked about how much he loved to play in Green Bay. I really admired his attitude and he was by far my favorite player in the NFL. I felt like I could relate to him, and at the same time I was in awe of the stuff that he could do on the field. I never thought that I'd see this day.

Brett, I've lost a lot of that respect. I thought that you were a guy who cared both about winning and about the organization. I thought that you cared more about the fans, and the Packers in general, than to seek revenge like this. I can't recall another player coming out of retirement to play for revenge - and to do it on the team that is the biggest rival of their former team. It was disgusting to watch you celebrate all over Lambeau Field, with that big grin on your face, while wearing Vikings purple.

I hope that you enjoyed that revenge. I hope that it is sweet enough to you to compensate for your soured reputation among millions of Packers fans. I hope that it was worth it to you. Because all of those fans will never look at you the same way. Packers fans bleed green and gold. Packers players have played for other teams, sure, but none of them have done it for the reasons that you did, or in the fashion that you did.

And I guess that makes you special.

That's what you wanted, right?

Brief Recap: Vikings defeat Green Bay Packers 38-26

2009-11-02T00:41:21Z

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QB Brett Favre sure was pumped up beating his old team. I lost whatever respect I had left for him after that one. He wasn't supposed to throw the game, but for all his talk about being "it's just another game", it sure looked like payback time. I'm a Packer fan first, although you can find me defending him up-and-down if you feel like combing through this site's archives. Hopefully karma kicks him hard some day.

As to the rest of the game. It sure would have been great if the offense had shown up in the 1st half. Or the special teams unit had shown up at all. And it sure would be nice if LT T.J. Lang and RT Allen Barbre could be benched in favor of LT Chad Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher as soon as next game. Or they could rush the passer, or play better defense in the red zone.

But it's easy to find fault in a 12 point home loss, so let's end with the positive. The team played hard, physical, and rallied when they fell down 24-3. The receivers and backs worked hard for extra yards. QB Aaron Rodgers kept getting back up whenever his offensive tackles let a defensive lineman come in unblocked. The defense played very physical and made some big hits. The pass defense had only allowed 9 TD passes in the first 6 games, so the 4 TDs allowed today were more fluke then trend.

It's hard not to be emotional, but they'll lick their wounds and move onto next week. What stood out for you in this game?

Worse Than A Blowout

2009-11-02T00:20:58Z

They were so close. So very close. I had already written them off, and then they started coming back, and started getting some calls, and when Jennings caught that touchdown, I really started believing.

It didn't take long to crash back to reality.

I'm feeling pretty numb right now. I might do a recap tomorrow. I might not.

A bit melodramatic? Absolutely. But I'm going to wallow in my sports-self-pity for a little while.