Addicted To Quack

College football conference realignment: what do we really know about the revenue-maximization endgame?

2012-05-16T17:30:56Z

I never cease to be enthralled by the shenanigans of conference realignment.

We know that the catalyst behind realignment is money-college football television money, to be exact. This was the reason for a seemingly illogical marriage between San Diego State, Boise State, and the Big East, was that AQ status, and access to a guaranteed BCS bowl, would maximize revenue potential for those programs that would make the travel worth it. While those arrangements are in jeopardy, they do bring to light a logical idea that should be getting more press than it is and that I will explore in another post: the breaking of the bonds between a school's football conference alignment, and that of a school's other sports.

But the issue at hand today is football alignment. We all have an idea of what we think stability will entail. The most common model discussed seems to be that of the 16-team "superconference," leaving 64 teams playing big-time college football, with some second tier between what we now call the FBS and FCS levels hosting the MACs, Sun Belts, and Conference USAs of the world. We are, essentially, seeing the professionalization of college football from a revenue-generation standpoint, and there is nothing to be gained from sharing the pie with the MAC schools, which aren't real players in the game, anyways. The "superconferences" also lead really nicely into an eight-game playoff, which we know would be worth beaucoup bucks to the 64 remaining schools.

I have serious doubts about this model. Not about whether this model is viable, or even about whether it will happen-because I think the answer on both accounts is yes. My doubts instead question whether this is actually the endgame. Remember, the game is about revenue maximization. College football doesn't need 64 teams-it only needs enough teams to secure the proper combination of traditional powers and large enough television markets to maximize the television contract for its biggest schools. That means getting your product on as many television sets as possible, and having the fewest number of players to share the pie with. Why should both Washington and Washington State get a piece of the pie? Why Iowa and Iowa State? Such redundancies add no TV markets, but create and extra piece of the pie that must be shared. Its only a matter of time before the battle that we're seeing now-big conference vs. small conference-turns into the battle of big program vs. small program. And we already know who wins.

The Setup

Fifteen teams have won national championships since 1990, so its not hard to figure out that the real number of teams who could compete for a national championship isn't 64. Further, its preferred to split that pie between fewer teams. Yes, there is value to, say, Arizona football. But, right now, USC and Arizona are getting the same amount of money from the Pac-12 TV deal, at about $20 million each. But if the two schools' combined worth is $40 million, it may be more logical that USC's rights are worth closer to $35 million, while Arizona's rights are worth closer to $5 million. USC isn't going to want to share that forever. This is the reasoning behind my model.

So the system is set up into tiers. Tier one has 32 teams, not 64 as there is in the "superconference" model. A second tier has another 32 teams. This second tier is where you would find the Oregon States and Kentuckys of the world. This division will still sign television contracts in the millions of dollars-just many millions fewer than those in the top division. The top division wants to maximize its television contract, which would be worth insane amounts of money if they banded together and included all their games plus their playoffs. To achieve this, The first tier of college football needs an optimal traditional powers and television markets. Recent success also plays a factor in order to maintain the appearance of this being a "meritocracy". I came up with a model of four eight-team divisons, with conference champions comprising the playoffs. The divisions aren't exactly clean, geographically, but there will always be small problems. I've tried my best to retain traditional affiliations, where possible:

Pacific	Midwest	South	East
USC	Ohio State	LSU	Miami
UCLA	Michigan	Arkansas	Florida
Oregon	Michigan State	Texas	Florida State
Washington	Missouri	Georgia	North Carolina
Arizona State	Wisconsin	Alabama	Penn State
California	Iowa	Auburn	Maryland
Colorado	Notre Dame	Tennessee	Pittsburgh
Oklahoma	Nebraska	Clemson	West Virginia

No doubt the combination of teams would look somewhat different (I'd bet Oklahoma State, for example, would be somewhere on that list), but you get the idea. Minnesota, Rutgers and Boston College would be great television markets, so their inclusion would be possible, even though their merit on the field of play wouldn't suggest it. But you now see 32 teams sharing that big pie, with all the traditional powers and programs of national stature included. How much would a TV network pay to show the games of those 32 teams? We're not quite at NFL money, but we're a lot further along in that direction. All of these programs will command premium dollars, and the inventory of games is colossal as non-conference matchups become name games, instead of a FCS patsy. A $1 billion per year television contract would net each of these 32 schools $31.5 million dollars per season, just for football. The NFL totals $5 billion per season in television rights. Could these upper echelon programs band together and get $2 billion for the whole package? That would be about $63 million per school, just for football. I think if you look at the numbers for the current conference and bowl contracts that the market would support that. The schools could then make additional revenues by selling their rights to other sports, especially mens' basketball, in the traditional conference formats.

What about the others?

The problem with this plan, of course, is the politics involved in it all. You'd have presidents and alumni of the schools left behind threatening legal action and congressional investigations, while those in charge of the top tier schools would claim it wasn't really about money, but about competitive balance and fairness to the student athletes. However, there is an easy way to rectify this that not only gives the second tier schools the carrot of a potential spot at the table, but also drives interest in both tiers. I'm talking, of course, about promotion and relegation.

Promotion and relegation doesn't happen in American sports because the owners have created a system that protects their own interests. The owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates wants to protect the value of the franchise that he purchased, in spite of the fact that he has no interest in putting a competitive product on the field. College football works somewhat differently. The teams are (mostly) publicly owned, and therefore subject to meddling from political motivations that actually have some kind of power over the respective programs. For example, you could have a situation where the Oregon legislature tries to tell Oregon that they could not move onto tier one if Oregon State gets left behind.

So instead of fighting that, you make those schools part of the system. The bottom team from each division is relegated down, while the top team from each division in tier two is promoted to tier one. This is the American Way. Americans don't care about the wealth distribution in this country so long as they believe that there is a plausible chance that they could be among the wealthy. The allure of an Oregon State having the theoretical ability to become one of those $60 million a year teams would be an immense force. It would help the value of both the tier one and tier two television contracts, as it would drive interest in both tiers and potentially make college football even more interesting than it is now. It allows the major programs to say they are promoting some idea of "fairness." Finally, it isn't really a threat to the major programs, as the idea that a USC or an Alabama would be relegated for an extended period of time is unlikely given the advantaged that those schools have. Even being in tier one 60-80% of the time could be a huge financial upgrade to what is available now.

Conference realignment is the reality of the current college football landscape, and it won't become stable until the schools with the most revenue-generating capacity believe that they have maximized their revenue streams. This framework satisfies that need both practically and politically.

Miracle Wolf Scholarship Fund

2012-05-16T17:00:23Z

via cdn.head-fi.org

All of you are awesome! I can't tell you how humbled and small I feel by your generous outpouring of compassion and support that you showed through this fundraiser over the last two weeks. There aren't enough words and space to thank everyone involved, but I'll try. From axemen23 and his tireless work on getting the auctions up and answering all the questions from the bidders, to benzduck and his charitableness in getting poster put together for those that wanted them. To gekko mojo at UWDP and his willingness to look beyond the rivalry and pettiness of athletics and offer support of this worthy cause. There were donors like the ladies that wrote "The Maniac and Me" or former U of O President Dave Frohnmeyer, and the Duck Store and scudderfan who once again was the catalyst for all of this starting.

Finally, there were the cash donors that poured in by the droves. I wish I could post all the emails and comments I received from people supporting this cause. Beavers, Huskies, Ducks and non-sports related fans all stepped up and contributed. Most of all there was Dominic Dvieira and his family that led by example and matched donations to the tune of $436! All in all, our contribution to the Osteogensis Imperfecta Foundation will total more than $2400.

That donation will be sent to OI in Wyatt "Wolf's" name. This blog and the numerous people that contributed are not asking for recognition. So instead, I am passing on what Wyatt's Dad has to say in his honor. I'll let his words speak for how I feel about all of you:

Wyatt is an inspiration. We weren't sure he would be with us very long, but he's two years old now, and he's been a blessing to us every single day of his life. It is clear that no matter what limitations OI puts on him, he'll overcome them with his boundless spirit. Thanks to the Lord for giving us this wonderful boy. He is an inspiration.

At the same time, we are also inspired by our family and friends who have supported Wyatt, and supported us, throughout our time dealing with this condition. Our heartfelt and sincerest gratitude goes to all of you. You have taken care of us and given us love and hope and compassion. Thank you.

Sincerely,

Daniel and Julia Flude

Quack Fix: Podcasting with CougCenter, dilapidated Howe Field

2012-05-16T15:08:10Z

It is foolish and childish, on the face of it, to affiliate ourselves with anything so insignificant and patently contrived and commercially exploitative as a professional sports team, and the amused superiority and icy scorn that the non-fan directs at the sports nut...is understandable and almost unanswerable. Almost. What is left out of this calculation, it seems to me, is the business of caring - caring deeply and passionately, really caring - which is a capacity or an emotion that has almost gone out of our lives. And so it seems possible that we have come to a time when it no longer matters so much what the caring is about, how frail or foolish is the object of that concern, as long as the feeling itself can be saved. Naivete - the infantile and ignoble joy that sends a grown man or woman to dancing and shouting with joy in the middle of the night over the haphazard flight of a distant ball - seems a small price to pay for such a gift.

--Roger Angell

Onto the Quack:

Matt and I recorded an excellent podcast last night with Jeff Nusser and Brian Floyd of CougCenter. The Mike Leach hire has brought the excitement back to Pullman. To me, Washington State is the most interesting team in the conference this season, and every Cougar game will be must-DVR television.
Softball will be hosting a regional this weekend, and George Schroeder uses the occasion to tell us about the dilapidated state of Howe Field. Its the worst facility in the conference, and the once facility on campus that isn't brand new, yet there are no plans to replace or renovate it.
Brock Huard likes the Ducks, and not the Trojans, to win the Pac-12 and make a run at the national title (warning: Insider link).
With a four-team playoff all but certain, Andy Staples tackles an important question: How do you avoid a situation like last year, where Stanford was ranked ahead of Oregon despite the Ducks winning the conference and destroying the Cardinal in Palo Alto?
Finally, Avinash over at Pacific Takes looks at Pac-12 athletic revenues. Only one department is operating in the black. Guess who?

That's all the quack I have for today. Remember, its been 3,120 days since the washington huskies have beaten the Oregon Ducks in football.

ATQ Tuesday Night Talks TONIGHT 9:00 PT: talking WSU with Jeff Nusser of CougCenter

2012-05-15T20:07:55Z

It is Tuesday Night, and we all know that means you have your alarms set for 9:00 when you can listen to Matt Daddy and I pretend that we know things about the Oregon Ducks. Tonight, Matt and I continue our tour of the Pac-12, as we talk with Jeff Nusser of CougCenter about the Cougars' new direction under Mike Leach. What kind of changes are in store on the Palouse? Is the talent in place to win now? And what do Cougar fans expect this season? Hear the answers to those questions and more. You can listen to the live show, or download the podcast by visiting the Tuesday Night Talks page on Talkshoe.

Tako Tuesdays: Late

2012-05-15T16:00:09Z

This isn't a Junior Seau retrospective. I missed the boat on Junior Seau retrospectives by about twelve days. This is a reflection, an admittance of hypocrisy, and a pledge.

People do very strange things in the wake of a suicide. I attribute this to the fact that suicides are usually an unexpected act. People who commit suicide rarely gather evidence, consult friends and family, and still decide that ending their own life is the right option. Suicide is a solitary, if not selfish, decision. And when we find out someone we know has made this ultimate decision, we have an equally selfish reaction: why couldn't they have told me, why wouldn't they let me help? How dare they not share their pain with me? And we feel guilty. But that guilt is selfish as well. We feel that guilt because our lack of empathy has just been aggressively thrown in our face. It's that lack of empathy, and a subsequent sense of entitlement, that has bred our current culture of sports fandom. It's what drove Junior Seau to make the decision he made. And it needs to change, before it gets worse.

The phrase "sanctity of the game" gets tossed around anytime scandal invades the sports world. Steroids violate the "sanctity of the game"; recruiting agents and handlers violate the "sanctity of the game"; prima donna athletes and holdouts violate the "sanctity of the game". But the "sanctity of the game" has been non-existant ever since someone discovered that you could pay the best guys to play on your team, and charge admission to spectators. At the risk of vaulting into the lead of the ATQ Curmudgeon of the Year contest, I believe the "sanctity of the game" is friendship, teamwork, and showing grace in the face of victory or defeat. Once money got involved, all that went out the window. Money beget competition, which beget rivalry, which sullied pride, which inflated competition, which negatively influenced attitudes, which furthered both rivalry and competition, which beget performance enhancers and free agency, which beget a need for negotiation and influence, which crept into adolescence. And we have no one to blame but ourselves, for enabling the culture by gleefully handing over dollar after dollar. $2000 for a trip to the national championship game, $200 for a jersey, $45 for a couple hot dogs, a beer, and some popcorn, and what did you get? Not a damn thing except a really expensive shirt, and indigestion. Even if your team won, the game had absolutely no effect on your life. None.

Football combines two very dangerous components: head injury, and an addiction to competition. The addiction comes from years and years of professional sports telling us that the best players are the winners, the superstars are the ones who live and breathe the game every waking second of their lives. Every boy, and many a girl, plays out the sports hero fantasy as a kid. 3-2 count, bottom of the ninth, Game 7. Five seconds left, team down by 1, ball in your hands. Thousands of buzzer beaters swishing through in thousands of driveways and schoolyards. It breeds a dream, that one day, you could really be the hero. For professional athletes, that dream is an obsession. It's the obsession that brought Tiger Woods to hang Jack Nicklaus' records on his wall as a kid, the obsession that caused Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to turn themselves into walking chemistry labs in pursuit of accolades and the immortal career. And it's the obsession that Junior Seau could never escape. Seau reached two Super Bowls, and both times left the field with the other team doing the celebrating. He was an intense competitor, one who would play through injury and do anything within his power to help his team win. But he never captured the ultimate prize in his arena. Combine that with a lifetime of brain trauma, and the picture begins to come into focus.

The idea that modern sport has ulterior motives is one that I can live with; it's the nature of business, and if the alternative is no sports at all, then I choose a flawed, flawed world of sports. But the idea that athletes are out there slowly killing themselves for my entertainment is one that makes me uneasy. Head trauma in football has already been linked to Alzheimer's and dementia, Lou Gehrig's disease, and depression, and the sport is only getting faster and more violent. I don't like watching TJ Ward's hit on OK State QB Zac Robinson because my mind wanders, to the land where that hit is an inch higher, lower, or at a different angle, and Robinson ends up seriously hurt, or worse. Shouldn't the careers of Eric LeGrand, Kevin Everett, or Darryl Stingley give pause to anyone considering a football career, or raise questions to the society that champions the hardest hitters? The NFL claims to have safety as a priority, but the sport itself is unsafe, and fixing it involves making the game less exciting, and subsequently less marketable. Less exciting and less marketable means less money. And I can guarantee you, NFL owners are more concerned about the bottom line than the long-term health of their employees. And as long as players are willing to make the sacrifice, and fans are willing to watch the carnage, the game won't change. A player will die on the field due to a hit at some point in the future, and the game still won't change. Why change the product if people will just keep buying a repackaged version of the same thing?

The change has to come from the fans. Fans need to make it clear that we see athletes as people, rather than statistics. We need to be against dirty play, dirty money, and dirty politics. We need to teach our kids the right way to do things. We need to be more okay with losing. And we need to make it clear to athletes: your life is more important than this game. Because Junior Seau gave his life for football. Was that a good enough reason?

Quack Fix: Baseball wins again while track teams prepare for NCAAs

2012-05-15T13:47:10Z

Man, how about that baseball team? They have now won 11 of their last 12 and their only remaining conference series is against OSU over Memorial Day weekend.

The baseball team rallied for a 6-3 victory last night over the Trojans. After last night's victory, the Ducks are 1.5 games up on Arizona in the Pac-12 baseball standings with just three conference games remaining. Finally, the latest Baseball America rankings had Oregon up to #6.
Lots of activity on the Pac-12 blog yesterday. First, Ted Miller has his thoughts on the five schools that entered (and left) the spring without a presumptive starter at the QB position. Miller followed that up with a post on the "Best of the Pac-12" from the spring, with Oregon earning a mention for "worst timing." Kevin Gemmell also offered his thoughts on what we've learned as we head into summer. Finally, a couple of videos: Gemmell on the conference TE talent and Ted Miller talks about the biggest Pac-12 games in 2012.
Over at fishduck, Kurt runs down what an extraordinary year it's been for Oregon athletics, the latest video is an analysis of the spring game and Jerod Young has a post on golfer Eugene Wong.
With the men's and women's team having both wrapped up conference titles this past weekend, Ken Goe writes that the teams are now looking ahead to the NCAA West Regionals which takes place in two weeks in Austin, Texas.
Curtis Anderson has a story on Jordan Hasay finally breaking through this season by successfully defending her conference title in the 1,500 meters on Saturday.

Go Ducks!

Quack Fix: Baseball Ducks still rolling, 2 new Pac 12 Championships and Spring wrap

2012-05-14T15:20:50Z

I hope everyone had a glorious Mother's Day. Remember, if it wasn't for your mothers, none of us would be here. Onto the quack:

And the boys of the diamond keep rolling along. Jake Reed was stellar in his start on Sunday and Kuedell was equally as awesome in their win on Saturday. The Ducks are now 37-14 overall and 18-8 in conference with a game and half lead on Arizona. The final game against USC is tonight at 6:00pm.
Softball team isn't doing too shabby either. Oregon is set to host its first ever regional starting Thursday. Congrats to the lady ducks on their tremendous season so far.
So apparently, top 10 player Anthony Bennett chose UNLV over Oregon. Congrats to the Running Rebs, and best of luck to Bennett. Oregon needs to move on and Chris Obekpa is still undecided.
The Pac 12 Championships were this weekend and it looked like an uphill fight for the men in track and a pretty sure thing for the women. Well, both teams came through in the end as Oregon took home two new Pac 12 Championship banners. You have to love this little tidbit of information from Ken Goe, "For those scoring at home, Oregon has won six consecutive men's conference titles and four consecutive women's titles. No other program in conference history has swept this meet in four successive seasons."
What's that? You want video of De'Anthony running? Well ok.
Lastly, Ted Miller has his Spring Wraps for all the Pac 12 schools. For Oregon, Miller pretty much nails all the key points. Who is going to replace Pleasant, Jordan and Kiko look like studs, the QB competition should be exciting and will Byron Marshall be ready? The one thing I think people keep dismissing though is the question marks at wide receivers. Unfortunately, I don't think Oregon is any further along at WR han they were last year.

That's all the quack I got. Leave any other pieces in the comments.

Recruiting Notebook: Bennett to UNLV, Wilson to OSU?

2012-05-13T18:22:51Z

Oregon received unfortunate but not surprising news yesterday as Anthony Bennett, one of the best basketball prospects in the nation, committed to UNLV. Bennett had previously narrowed his choices to UNLV and the Ducks. Oregon was thought to be behind UNLV the entire time, but had Bennett's friend and current Duck commit Dominic Artis advocating on their behalf, plus the fact that Eugene is basically Canada, Bennett's native country.

With Bennett out of the picture, the Ducks will now turn their sights to 6-8 PF Chris Obekpa of Our Savior New American in New York. Obekpa is a four star player and top 100 player nationally. Artis has also been recruiting Obekpa, who is rumored to make a visit to Oregon this week. Obekpa is also considering Providence, DePaul, and Cincinnati.

In football news, one top RB target, 4* Dontre Wilson, has pushed his announcement date back from May 25 so he can visit Ohio State. Should Oregon be concerned? Yes. Wilson had narrowed his choices to Oregon and Texas and was thought to be a heavy Oregon lean before Ohio State entered the picture. Urban Meyer is one of the most dogged and successful recruiters in the nation. Like Oregon, Ohio State plans to run an uptempo offense this season, which appeals to Wilson. Still, you have to respect a kid's choice to assess all of his options and assume that Oregon is still in the lead until hearing otherwise.

In other news Oregon coaches have been on the road and handing out more offers. This year perhaps more than any other the Ducks are seeing top recruits from around the country name Oregon as one of their top choices. Most recently, 4* cornerback L.J. Moore of Fresno named Oregon as among his top choices. In North Carolina, 4* TE Josh McNeil said getting an invite to Oregon was a "dream come true", while Peter Kalambayi, a 4* linebacker listed Oregon among his top 5. Finally, 5* defensive tackle Montravius Adams from Georgia recently indicated that he wanted to take an official visit to Oregon, as did 4* LB/DE Torrodney Prevot from Texas.

Oregon currently has two commits in OL Evan Voeller and RB Thomas Tyner.