Amazin' Avenue

Leave Brett Myers On The Scrap Heap

2009-11-08T10:00:17Z

Brett Myers's Phillies tenure officially ended this past week and he will be a free agent. The controversial righty made it known after a meeting with general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.:

I officially won’t be a Phillie next year.

Myers tore a labrum in his hip this past season, requiring surgery. Usually a starting pitcher, he was placed in the bullpen upon returning in September and struggled (7 IP, 4:3 K/BB, 6.43 ERA). He is in the group of talented but risky starting pitchers available this offseason, including Rich Harden, Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard. These types likely won't garner large contracts or multi-year deals but are worth considering (especially Harden, a personal favorite). When deciding whether to pursue Myers there are 2 factors to consider: his on-field performance and off-the-field performance.

A quick look at Myers's defense independent pitching stats shows us his biggest problem - home runs:

Year	IP	FIP	xFIP	tERA
2005	215.1	4.06	3.49	4.93
2006	198	4.14	3.89	4.31
2007*	68.2	3.75	3.31	3.90
2008	190	4.52	4.01	4.96
2009	70.2	6.14	4.39	6.50

* - Myers pitched out of the bullpen for almost all of 2007

Generally xFIP is the best or 2nd best statistic for evaluating a pitcher's luck-independent performance. It normalizes the highly variable home run rate based on the number of fly balls a pitcher allows. In this case, it might not be so useful. Myers is consistently among the league leaders in home runs allowed per fly ball, and his career HR/9 of 1.35 seems like a reflection of his true talent level rather than the bad luck that xFIP suggests. Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox but about half of the home runs he's allowed in his career have come on the road, so small home field dimensions are not solely to blame. Aside from home runs, Myers is a solid pitcher - K/BB of 2.39 and ground-ball rate of 47.3% for his career.

At age 29 and coming off a full offseason of rest, it wouldn't be aggressive to think Myers can be an average starting pitcher next season. He's also open to pitching in relief. Given his affinity for southern culture, who knows if he would even consider signing with the Mets. It might be a decent, low-cost signing on paper. In reality, Myers is a player the Mets should, and likely will, avoid.

In June 2006, Myers was arrested for punching his wife in the face while in Boston for a Phillies-Red Sox series. Although his wife Kim eventually had the charges dropped, the fact remains that this 6'4" 225 lbs. man punched his wife in the face in a public setting. Outstanding Brett, we'll get you a(nother) case of beer for that one.

Maybe this is a tad hypocritical coming from someone who advocated signing Barry Bonds and trading for Milton Bradley, but on my moral continuum women-beating is far worse than steroid use or tantrum throwing. If Brett Myers signed with the Mets I would openly root against him.

BtB: The Coming Avalanche of Non-Tenders?

2009-11-07T23:34:29Z

BtB: The Coming Avalanche of Non-Tenders?

It seems unlikely to me too, but if such a situation did arise, it would seemingly be great for big-market teams, such as our own.

Notes On Baseball America's Top 10 Mets Prospects

2009-11-07T11:00:28Z

As you undoubtedly saw in the fanshots or somewhere else yesterday, Baseball America released its top 10 prospects list for the Mets, with Adam Rubin reprising as the author of the write-up and subsequent chat. Rubin's article didn't provide much insight into the ranking, but the chat cleared a few things up. Here are the things I found most interesting about the list with relevant quotes:

Fernando Martinez, the incumbent #1 prospect for two years, drops to #3 after his best season in the minors (.877 OPS in AAA at age 20). He continued to be chronically injured, tearing his meniscus, as mentioned in the article. Rubin said in the chat, "Fernando Martinez has fallen far enough that the Mets talk about going outside for a left fielder for 2010." That makes me worry the Mets are putting stock into his worthless sample-size major-league audition, because I find it hard to believe an injury could hurt his stock so much in a season where he had a break out. I know it was his fourth straight season with an injury, but on the other hand, that means he's gone from injury prone, projectable, with no results to injury prone, projectable, with good results. Rubin later said, when asked about Martinez no longer being untouchable, " His value is so diminished right now. He's certainly not untouchable, but teams are very concerned because he's been unable to stay healthy for four straight years."
Mejia taking the #1 spot is not surprising, but his being ranked four spots ahead of Holt kind of is. Rubin said this of Holt: "I know a fair amount of the scouts who watch Binghamton regularly during the season. The consensus seems to be that he will be a No. 3 starter in the majors. Here's a report one person gave me on Holt: Good four-seam fastball (88-93 mph, peak 95), curveball (75-78) and changeup (79-81). Command needs work. Wasn't quite the same after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. Has to learn to maintain a consistent release point. He'll add some weight as well which will improve his durability and stamina. Needs to improve from a mental perspective. Often allows situations to get out of hand by compounding problems due to overthrowing. Has to eliminate obsession with strikeouts." Holt supposedly was throwing in the lows 90s peak 98 on his fastball in 2008. When a reader questioned the change in perception later in the chat, Rubin insisted that Holt tops out at 95.
They still love Wilmer Flores, and put him in rightfield on the "Projected 2013 lineup." I wouldn't read into that much, since they basically just throw whatever prospects they can into these projected lineups; they likely will never happen. Take, for instance, the projected lineup for next year according to the 2006 version of this list:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Carlos Delgado

Second Base Anderson Hernandez

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Beltran

Right Field Fernando Martinez

No. 1 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 2 Starter Philip Humber

No. 3 Starter John Maine

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Billy Wagner

Reflects something of a past optimism, as opposed to the 2011 projected lineup, which reflects something of a past delusion:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Fernando Martinez

Second Base Greg Veloz

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Gomez

Right Field Carlos Beltran

No. 1 Starter John Maine

No. 2 Starter Oliver Perez

No. 3 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Eddie Kunz

That outfield is awesome, but that pitching staff might be the worst-conceived in history. Also note them sticking Fernando Martinez somewhere, a la Wilmer. I also find it interesting that they projected a healthy Carlos Beltran to be in right field by 2011, but they this year, they put Carlos Beltran with irreparable bone-on-bone knee injuries in CF in 2013.

Speaking of Francisco Pena, apparently he will be left off the top 30 prospects list, per Rubin. Not even Mark and I did that in our ongoing top-26, and I really dislike Francisco Pena as a prospect.
Kirk Niewenhuis got ranked best defensive outfielder, which is encouraging, since the biggest question about his abilities are related to his fielding, not his hitting. Rubin passed along this scouting report: "He will garner comparisons to Curtis Granderson in terms of his position and ability to fill up the stat sheet in many offensive categories. Good opposite field power and a plus overall hitter. Great contact guy. Batted in the leadoff spot at the end of the season with St. Lucie and Binghamton and produced many multi-hit games. Figures to be a 20-20 guy. Good range in center and an average to slightly above average major-league arm." He also cited a scout that compared his mentality to Kirk Gibson's. That's high praise, for a guy that didn't crack the top 10.
Nate Vineyard retired.
Juan Urbina made the top-10 without throwing a professional pitch. Rubin justified ranking him ahead of the more established Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen, thusly: The Mets spent $1.2 million on Urbina because they believe he's a top-10-caliber prospect. His fastball averages 88-89 mph, with a peak of 91 mph, but he has a clean delivery. Team officials believe the velocity will climb a little as he gets instruction, but that's fine for a lefthander. Familia throws from the opposite side and considerably harder and doesn't have a clean delivery. Allen also is righthanded." I nominate "Allen also is righthanded" to be the go-to non-sequitur at Amazin' Avenue.
The Mets won't push prospects anymore with Tony B gone.
Robbie Shields has grission. Rubin called him the baseball equivalent of a "gym rat," which is a new one.
Jordany Valdespin was named best athlete. He put up good numbers last year in Savannah, but didn't get promoted, so I assumed he must be a bad athlete or something. Guess not.

2009 Mets Gangsta and Grission Awards

2009-11-06T22:19:42Z

(bumped from fanposts. --eric)

With the 2009 season done and over, it's time to start handing out hardware. I present to you the first annual Gangsta and Grission Awards. Some of the categories had very tight races, while others were as one-sided as the Imperfect Game. The votes are in, however, and all winners receive as a way to remember their achievements, a Golden Jerry.

Most Gangsta Injury

Jonathon Niese

On August 5th at Citi Field, Jonathon Niese started a game against the Cardinals. In the second inning, he ran over to cover first base, entering into a footrace with Joe Thurston to beat him to the bag. Angel Berroa's relay to 1st caused Niese to hyperextend his legs, leading to a hamstring injury. He returned to the mound to throw a couple of warm-up pitches to test his leg, and as he landed after tossing his first warm-up pitch, his hamstring literally tore from the bone, causing him to collapse in a heap of pain.

Most Gangsta WTF? Moment

Luis Castillo

In a season that was otherwise encouraging for Castillo, he made a single boneheaded move that negated all of his improvements from 2008 for many, many fans. On May 20th, Alex Rodriguez stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning with two outs, and the winning run on base. Francisco Rodriguez induced a simple pop up, something that seemed routine, until Castillo, at the last moment, seemed to realize that his body was not where he wanted it to be. The simple pop up glanced off of his glove, allowing the winning run to score, and Alex Rodriguez was mobbed at first base for hitting into what would have been a rally-ending pop up.

Most Gangsta Play

Daniel Murphy

On July 8th at Citi Field, Mark Loretta hit a scorching grounder down the first base line. As Daniel Murphy was lining himself up to catch it, the ball hit the base itself, shooting upwards. As Bobby Parnell was running over to cover first, Daniel Murphy tracked the ball down, grabbed it barehanded, and flipped it behind his back, over to the covering pitcher who successfully caught it a few inches before Loretta touched the bag.

Most Gangsta Name

J.J. Putz

With a name like Putz, presumably, you are going to get picked on your entire life. When you get picked on, you need to develop a thick skin, as to not let all of those insults get to you. And Putz certainly did. Red hair? You know what is also red? Fire. Do you mess with fire? I don't think so. He has two ears. You know what else has two ears? Elephants. Do you mess with elephants? I don't think so. Both his first and middle names (Joseph Jason) begin with the letter ‘J'. You know what else starts with the letter ‘J'? Jaws. Do you mess with Jaws? No, I didn't think so.

Most Gangsta Promo Give-Away Item

David Wright Bobblehead Night

No, wait...

Most Grissioniest Front Office Member

Tony Bernazard

In the first half of the 2009 season, Tony Bernazard nearly got into fights with Francisco Rodriguez, a Diamondbacks scout, and a handful of Binghamton Mets. In that latter confrontation, he went as far as to take off his shirt. I'm not exactly sure what good that does, but it sure is grissiony.

Most Grissioniest Player

Alff Francoura

No doubt about it, Alex Cora and Jeff Francouer endeared themselves to Mets fans everywhere because of the passion they displayed on the field, the dirty uniforms that they had to launder day in and day out, and all of those other intangibles that you can't possibly quantify, but definitely result in championship caliber teams (see Philadelphia Phillies). Both were injured during the course of the season, but both refused to be put on the DL, because they wanted to help their team THAT much. It'd be impossible to determine which of the two had more grission, so instead of even trying, I decided to combine the blood, sweat and tears of both Cora and Francoeur into one massively grissiony player - Alff Francoura.

Most Grissiony Single Game Performance

Oliver Perez

In a game that didn't particularly mean much (we were 15 ½ games back), but a game that was against the Phillies nonetheless, Oliver Perez certainly pitched some game. Jeff Francoeur lining into that triple play in the ninth overshadows Perez' grissionest performance of the season, but it certainly was a game that was worth paying Perez those big bucks that we're paying him. He only walked two! Sure, he only lasted two outs, and gave up 6 earned runs, but until Jerry came to take him out of the game, he fought through being a crappy pitcher to the best of his abilities. If that's not grission, I don't know what is.

White Sox Buy Out Dye's Contract

2009-11-06T21:12:06Z

White Sox Buy Out Dye's Contract

Cue AA's one Jermaine Dye fanatic . . .

Carlos Gomez dealt to the Brewers for JJ Hardy

2009-11-06T18:00:33Z

Carlos Gomez dealt to the Brewers for JJ Hardy

Type B Applesauce - Met free agents given B status, Putz option declined, Hermida to Boston

2009-11-06T13:11:11Z

Have a good weekend everyone. I'm taking a little off-season weekend break. Enjoy the links.

Meet the Mets

Metsblog reports that Carlos Delgado, Brian Schneider, and Gary Sheffield will be Type B free agents during this offseason.

That JJ Putz trade didn't work out so well long-term or short. He could still remain valuable to the Mets as a jersey designer though.

Metsradamus is already worried that Omar is slow out of the off-season gate.

Around the NL East

The Good Phight has an awesome take on who else is not Philly enough on the Phillies.

Florida has traded Jeremy Hermida to Boston.

Tim Hudson and the Braves are close to agreeing to a contract extension.

Around MLB

Lupica does it again. This time the championship is awesome because of the wait.

Joe Girardi had a pretty amazing Wednesday night.

Tim Lincecum was charged with possession of marijuana and drug paraphenalia.

The Angels have finally agreed to a contract with Bobby Abreu, this one for significantly more than his last.

And, finally, the Dodgers have cut ties with Jon Garland.

Joe Posnanski On The Yankees' Glut And Baseball's Illusion Of Parity

2009-11-06T05:54:43Z

I know it's already linked in the FanShots, but if you've had any sort of argument with a Yankees fan in the past twenty-four hours and found your "They spend more money than anyone!" justification quickly rebuffed, go read Joe Posnanski's latest blog entry and arm yourself for the next encounter.

Here are a few excerpts.

There’s something else that people say: They talk about how money doesn’t guarantee wins. And they point out that other teams (the Mets, the Cubs, the Astros, etc.) spend a lot of money and don’t win.

/.../

But the Yankees are a whole different argument. They are their own argument. The Yankees are not a big market team. They DWARF big market teams. They are quantitatively different from every other team in baseball and every other team in American sports. They don’t just spend more money than every other team. They spend A LOT more money than every other team.

/.../

Don’t like it? Don’t watch. Some people have stopped watching, I suppose. But many of us keep on because we love baseball and there’s enough randomness in the game itself and enough volatility in the playoffs to distract us from the lunacy of having the game so ridiculously tilted toward one team.

/.../

And then: That team that spent $50 million more than any other team, that team with three sure Hall of Famers and as many as four others, that team that bought Milwaukee’s best pitcher and Anaheim’s best hitter and Toronto’s No. 2 starter and Boston’s favorite Idiot and the most expensive player in the history of baseball and so on, that team will win the World Series, and spray champagne on each other, and they will tell you that they won because they came together as a group and kept pulling themselves off the ground and didn’t listen to the doubters.

And then, if you are a not a Yankees fan, you will want to throw up. If you are not a Yankees fan, you are left hoping that next year the randomness of a short playoff series will get the Yankees and allow some other team to win so we can celebrate the hope of Opening Day. And that’s baseball.

It's Finally Over Applesauce - SNY Met promos, Rollins unbelieving, Phils undecided on Lee

2009-11-05T14:25:48Z

I thought that with the end of the Met season, the pain would stop. I was so wrong. Now, finally, I can be at peace for at least a few months.

Meet the Mets

It's kind of weird starting today's post off with Met news, but here goes.

Bill James predicts solid seasons from Wright, Reyes, and Francoeur.

Ted Berg posts some hysterical SNY promos that didn't make the cut.

At least now the Mets weren't the last team the Yankees beat in the World Series...

Greg Prince breaks out his inner Toby Ziegler. While Ziegler was a Yankee fan, Met fans always had the significantly more enjoyable Josh Lyman on their side.

Around the NL East

The Phillies are apparently still undecided about extending Cliff Lee's contract.

USA Today picks up on the hating on Cole Hamels.

Jimmy "Subtle" Rollins says the Phillies were still the better team.

And, just to rub some salt in their wounds, the Daily News prints a psychiatrist's advice for Philly fans.

Jim Riggleman might end up with the National managerial job after all.

The Braves have added bullpen arm Scott Proctor.

Around MLB

The new Yankee Stadium feels like the old one because of the magic. Ugh. Lupica.

Hideki Matsui is the first Japanese-born World Series MVP. How about that.

The Yankee victory parade is scheduled for tomorrow. Had they won, the city of Philadelphia would not have paid for their's. Last night's victory was quite tame by Philadelphia standards.

Seattle has picked up Yusmeiro Petit.

The Rangers have replaced Rudy Jaramillo with Clint Hurdle.

Talking With Nelfi Zapata From Instructional League

2009-11-05T11:15:18Z

View full size photo »

I recently chatted with Nelfi Zapata, the Mets 19th Round pick out of English High School (MA), who is working at the Mets Instructional League in the Dominican Republic. We talked about the instructional league, catching Billy Wagner, and the name of his fanclub, among other things. Check here for the full instructional league rosters.

Sam Page: So, how's it going?

Nelfi Zapata: It's going good so far, just working hard. You know the deal.

SP: Most fans don't know what instructional league actually is. What is the typical day like for you, as a catcher specifically?

NZ: Well, instructional league is where they send the guys, who did their job during the regular season and who they think could become a player at the next level. The typical day for me as a catcher is pretty average. You stay hot all the time, which gets you tired, but it's all about having fun and enjoying the baseball weather down here.

SP: Has anyone there particularly impressed you?

NZ: Yeah, a couple of my teammates. Everybody has gotten better in their particular ways.

SP: Any names?

NZ: [Amauris] Valdez, the catcher. We are very friendly, talk a lot, and help each other out on what we need to work on to get better.

SP: He was your teammate in the gulf coast league, right? How was the transition from high school to the GCL, specifically catching pro pitchers?

NZ: Hey, man, it's incredible. At first, it's tough to fall into track really quickly; it's tough to catch them. When you are normally used to catching pitchers at 85 to 86 mph and you come up and catch the pitchers throwing 96 mph, it's just incredible. It's all about making adjustments and everything falls into track. Catching Billy Wagner for a couple of innings before he went to the Red Sox was a good experience. I learned a lot from it and I hope I can go to the majors and catch those guys and get to play with them. It's my dream and one day it will come true; I have faith.

SP: Did you talk with Billy Wagner at all? Did he have any advice for you?

NZ: Yeah, a lot. He gave some tips on how to be smart behind the plate, what kind of pitches to ask for, and how to be mentally prepared.

SP: Did anyone else at GCL throw as hard as Wagner?

NZ: Our closer, [Luis] Rojas threw 96 mph.

SP: Nice. One last question before you go: What do you think about your fans calling themselves the Zapatistas?

NZ: I think it will be great. [laughs] That's a good one.

Thanks again to Nelfi for taking the time to talk with me.

Pitching, Speed and Defense Win Championships, Right?

2009-11-05T05:30:29Z

Yankees 2009 team numbers, with MLB rank in parentheses:

Pitching

ERA: 4.28 (11th)
FIP: 4.32 (13th)

Baserunning

Stolen Bases: 111 (11th)
EqBRR: -6.4 (20th)

Defense

UZR: -17.6 (19th)
PADE: -0.39 (13th)

Hmm, not overly impressive. Let's look at some batting numbers:

wOBA: .366 (1st)
OBP: .362 (1st)
SLG: .478 (1st)

The goal is to score more runs than you allow. Hitting, pitching, defense and baserunning are all factors in this run scoring/prevention balance. The Yankees had the 2nd best run differential in baseball this season and they did it without the benefit of great pitching or above average defense. Home runs are not evil and pitching alone does not win championships.

On a personal note I'm glad this nonsense is over. My RSS Feed won't be clogged with stories about Chase Utley being the greatest 2nd baseman of all-time or ex post facto results-based 2nd guessing of Joe Girardi's decision to go with a 3-man rotation. Now we can get down to the offseason business we know and love - trade and free agent rumors, 90% of which turn out to be totally bogus.

Congratulations, Phillies: Back-To-Back Champtions!

2009-11-05T04:50:53Z

As my deep-seated contempt for the Yankees has no known limit, I was pulling for the Phillies in this one, which might have been their first problem since everything I root for falls apart these days (see: Mets, New York). Unfortunately, True Yankees™ like C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and, yes, Alex Rodriguez, summoned all the grission they could find in their $200 million bones, and smote the Phillies and everyone else to get Back Where They Belong™. Philadelphia will just have to content itself with the fact that its fans are bigger douches than New York's. After all, not every team can be back-to-back world champtions.

Open Thread: World Series Game 6 - Yankees vs Phillies

2009-11-04T23:04:02Z

Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees

11/04/09 7:57 PM EST

Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees
Jimmy Rollins - SS	Derek Jeter - SS
Shane Victorino - CF	Johnny Damon - LF
Chase Utley - 2B	Mark Teixeira - 1B
Ryan Howard - 1B	Alex Rodriguez - 3B
Jayson Werth - RF	Hideki Matsui - DH
Raul Ibanez - DH	Jorge Posada - C
Pedro Feliz - 3B	Robinson Cano - 2B
Ben Francisco - LF	Nick Swisher - RF
Carlos Ruiz - C	Brett Gardner - CF

Andy Pettitte

#46 / Pitcher / New York Yankees

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 15, 1972

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Andy Pettitte	14-8	32	32	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.16	1.38

Pedro Martinez

#45 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 25, 1971

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pedro Martinez	5-1	9	9	0	0	0	0	44.2	48	18	18	7	8	37	3.63	1.25

Alex Cora Fascination

2009-11-04T17:30:27Z

Maybe people are sick of reading about the intangibles topic but it is one that continues to fascinate me. Adam Rubin's late season report that Alex Cora will likely be re-signed and subsequent fan support for bringing back Cora is the latest source of this fascination.

Cora is now 34 years old, coming off a replacement level season in which he earned $2 million. Smart organizations would bid such a player a fond farewell - thank you for the grit and leadership Alex, but we are moving in another direction. The most common argument in favor of a Cora return is his impact in the clubhouse. His off-the-field guidance for younger players is allegedly valuable enough to justify a spot on the roster. My question is, why can't good players bring these intangibles? Better yet, how about the members of the Mets' coaching staff provide guidance to younger players who need it? The coaching staff is filled with former players, many with playoff experience and even World Series rings. Presumably, they encountered similar on and off the field issues during their playing careers as players do today. Surely they can give advice on family life, conditioning, playing through pain or whatever other questions the players have.

Wise organizations don't pay for intangibles, they pay for on-field production. Cora's intangible qualities are almost universally praised so I feel confident in saying he has some positive value in the clubhouse, even if it is very small. That's terrific and I'd love it if all players had Cora's personality. However, if he had some value on the field that would be significantly more important. I'll close with some words I enjoyed from Matt Meyers, an ESPN The Magazine editor, who e-mailed the following to Matt Cerrone at Metsblog yesterday:

You’ll notice the Royals and Pirates have been two of the biggest spenders in the last couple of years, giving seven-figure bonuses to kids in rounds three through 10. Instead, the Mets will stick to slot in those rounds and spend $2 million on Alex Cora. It’s a joke, and shows a complete lack of understanding of value on the part of the Mets.

Mattingly Applesauce - Met prospect Allen impresses, Mattingly not a match in DC, Padilla injured in gun accident

2009-11-04T12:40:48Z

The ripping of Cole Hamels continues. This is like what we did to Beltran, except to the extreme.

Meet the Mets

Want to see what all the hype is about with Ike Davis? Well, you'll get your chance on Saturday as the MLB Network will broadcast the AFL's Rising Stars game.

Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally has video and nice words about Met pitching prospect Kyle Allen.

Ted Berg asks "Can Daniel Murphy be a guy?" Yes, that is an intentionally deceiving summary.

Around the NL East

Washington has decided it will not go with Don Mattingly either because he doesn't want them or vice versa.

John Gonzalez has his two cents about Cole Hamels: the wimp.

Around MLB

The Daily Show determines who has douchier fans, New York or Philly. Fortunately, Philly wins this one, but I can't say that I was proud.

It looks like Toronto wants to keep Rod Barajas around for next year.

Nick Swisher is apparently quite the player.

Vicente Padilla pulled a Plaxico.

The Rays have traded second baseman Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh.

Sam's 2010 Offseason Plan

2009-11-04T11:00:30Z

Take this post for what it is, subject to change and wishful thinking. I intended this plan to be realistic in the sense that all the trades and signings are possible, but not realistic in that I think it's what the Mets will actually do--that's another post for another time. So without further ado:

The Major Moves:

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6/$110 Million contract, starting salary $17MM--Maybe he will only sign for five years, but I think at age 36 he would still be at least an adequate outfielder given his skillset. I already made most of the case for Holliday here, but especially in a year where the Mets have a protected first round pick, he seems like a perfect fit. Jason Bay will be a DH in a few years, given how precipitously his fielding has declined. He's an acceptable backup plan, only if he'll take significantly fewer years, which he probably won't. The way Mets fans deified non-entities like Xavier Nady makes me think a they'll go crazy having a legitimately great corner-outfielder for the first time in a long time
Trade Bobby Parnell and Wilmer Flores to the Rays for Carlos Peña--I don't understand why Mets fans think it is smart or even efficient to resign firstbase to being played by someone like Daniel Murphy, if we sign Matt Holliday. It's not like the Mets were just middle-of-the-pack offensively last year, they were bottom of the barrel. With the largest payroll in the National League, why not try and fill all the team's holes with at least players who are average or better at their position? The Rays are motivated to sell Peña, being in his walk-year and making $10.5MM. They have a few a infielders on their bench, who could start on most teams (Aybar, Rodriguez), so they'll be most interested in a cheap set-up caliber reliever. Parnell fits that description easily--he's still making league minimum and posted a 3.80 tRA in the bullpen his rookie season. Wilmer Flores makes up the difference in value; he's the kind of super-athletic shortstop prospect the Rays love to hoard. For the Mets, Pena solves the "not enough homers" problem; he tied Mark Teixeira for the AL homerun crown, despite missing nearly all of September with a fractured hand. He has elite plate-discipline and the batting average will probably rebound a bit. If healthy, Peña is also an above-average defender and could easily be worth 4 WAR over a full season.
Sign Rich Harden to a 1-year/$10 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for a second season--See the above link on Matt Holliday for why I also don't want John Lackey. The best way to not get locked into bad contracts is to not give them. A one year deal to Rich Harden is the type of gamble a team with the Mets payroll should take. He's injury prone, having pitched just 140 innings the last two seasons, but in just 140 innings he can be worth 4+ WAR. He was just 1.8 WAR this season according to fangraphs, but that was due to bad luck with homers, which is reflected by his xFIPs being extremely consistent from year-to-year. Any argument to sign Lackey instead of Harden proves how overrated past durability is with pitchers. Coupling Harden with a good above-replacement contingency plan(s) likely costs less than Lackey, is incredibly more valuable than Lackey, will likely provide more innings than Lackey, and doesn't carry the huge risk of giving an injury prone pitcher in his 30s a multi-year contract.
Trade Jeff Francoeur to the Cubs for Mike Fontenot.--The Cubs will eventually dump Milton Bradley, and will look to replace him with an "RBI-guy" in rightfield. RBI's are Jeff Francoeur's specialty. Mike Fontenot magically amassed 3 WAR in under 250 plate appearances in 2007. In 2008, the Cubs gave him more responsibility then leaned toward trading him when his batting average sunk. As mentioned in that article, they still view him as trade bait. With such high BABIPs in past seasons, his batting average will likely rebound. I'd bet his true skill is somewhere in between .296 wOBA player of last year, or the .395 wOBA player of the year before, maybe the league average hitter of 2006. Even if he is only an average hitter, though, his fantastic defense (9.6 UZR/150) will make him more valuable than Castillo. Having a good defensive secondbaseman will be even more important with the young groundball pitchers Pelfrey and Niese in the rotation next year.

The Minor Moves:

Sign Carl Pavano 1 year/$6 million dollar contract--Pavano will likely half to accept another short-term commitment, because of his surface numbers and lingering injury concerns, but he actually pitched quite well last season. His 4.00 FIP reflects all-around good peripherals, consistent with his career numbers. Citi Field might help suppress his high HR/FB%, and a move to the National League can only help his strikeouts. At 3.7 WAR last season, he would have easily been the most valuable pitcher on the Mets. He'll likely be the best value on the market, and would solidify a rotation with a lot injury risk.
Sign Kiko Calero 2 years/$5 million dollar contract--Calero quietly posted a 2.38 tRA this season. Here's a pretty good summary on his attractiveness as a free agent, if 2.38 didn't convince you. He would be a definite upgrade over Parnell. I see him signing with the team that offers a multi-year deal.
Sign Adam Everett 1 year/$1 million--Here, I want a player that can step in and start, without dragging the whole team down with his poor play, if Jose's injuries become complicated. His defense isn't what it used to be but it's still great.
Sign Greg Zaun 1 year/$800,000--I waffled on this, but Omir Santos needs to go back to the minors. He's a minor league player who can't hit anything but fastballs, and pitchers will make the adjustment eventually. Zaun provides plate discipline and defense that is negligibly worse than Santos' and somewhat better than Bengie Molina's. Thole may be an adventure in the field, but if it gets too bad, Zaun has the bat to be a starter, without costing Molina-money.
Sign Endy Chavez 1 year/$1.5 million--Our hero. He's like Adam Everett for the outfield! He'll be coming off surgery, so it probably would not even cost this much to sign him. Even if he's lost a step, he's eons better than Francoeur in the field, so much better suited for a bench role.
Sign Shawn Hill 1 year/$400K--He was recently released by the Padres, but he's got a 4.11 career FIP. He's injury prone, but keeping both him and Maine around is a pretty good insurance plan for an already filled-out rotation.
Sign Mike Sweeney 1 year/$600K--Sweeney got his PhD in fixing fractured, mutli-cultural clubhouses from the 2009 Mariners (not that those things are necessarily related, or exactly describe the Mets). Anyone who liked Francoeur for his attitude will love Sweeney. His skills as a right-handed platoon bat are redundant with Nick Evans also around, but he'd be brought in just as much for his intangibles than abilities.
Sign Kelvim Escobar to a 1 year contract with incentives/max value $2.5 million--The former Angels ace is on the recovery path and would add dimension to the pitching staff as a cheap, worthwhile gamble in the bullpen.
Trade Luis Castillo to the Royals for virtually nothing--I'd bet they'd take him. Getting rid of Castillo is a priority, as I think he is a huge risk to totally bust in 2010. His continuing diminished range caps his value at ~1.5 WAR, and indicates his knees really aren't getting any better. He compensated for the lack of speed last year by taking an absurd amount of pitches and hitting a career-high percentage of line drives. There's no reason to expect him to repeat either of those feats in 2010. Sell high.

Overall thoughts:

On the hitting side, the lineup has patience, power, speed, and contact skills without any obvious holes. Never watching that squad would I think, "here's Santos-Cora-Valdez, 1-2-3." The bench re-emphasizes defense, something severely lacking from last year's backups, and features all players good enough to start on some team, but who aren't expecting starting jobs. Of the 26 players listed, 8 could be considered rotation candidates, which gives flexibility on who makes the opening-day roster and in case of an injury, no Pat Misches or Livan Hernadezes have to start. There's no obviously crappy reliever who fits in under the guise of "long man" but has no other usefulness or upside. Most importantly, this roster allows the AAA class of prospects (Davis, Martinez, Mejia, and Holt) to stay in AAA as depth options or emergency trade candidates, in case Harden, Pavano, Maine, and Hill all blow out their elbows. I could see 95 wins, and with good health, the upside for much more. Now go wild with your own proposals.

Shinjo Applesauce - Davis named AFL all-star, Francoeur surgery, Hamels fight, Phils' sign stealing

2009-11-03T17:08:29Z

Meet the Mets

Some minor league news to pass along to you all. Ike Davis has been named to the AFL Rising Stars Game (kind of like an All-Star team). Also, Reese Havens will give second base a try.

Thank you Ted Berg for posting about Tsuyoshi Shinjo. That made my day. I once had a Shinjo poster for my dorm room. Good times.

Jeff Francouer had surgery on his hand without anesthesia. That is what men do. Only half of that first sentence is true.

Congratulations to Wally Backman for having an awesome mustache.

Would the Mets consider trading John Maine and F! to get a big bat or another good starter?

Around the NL East

Apparently, Cole Hamels' Philly teammates didn't appreciate the starter's desire to have the season be over already. This is great. The one benefit to having the Series continue is that there's more of a chance that bad blood will boil over and more good controversy comes out. For example, Larry Bowa and Shane Victorino are in a spat over allegations of Philadelphia sign stealing.

Philadelphia turns to Pedro, once again.

Federal Baseball takes a look at the Nationals' in-house solutions for their atrocious starting pitching rotation.

Around MLB

The Fielding Bible announced their 2009 awards.

Think umpiring is bad now? Apparently it has only improved since the 1970s.

So what if baseball can't really honestly be called the national pastime anymore?

Graphaholic: Mets Manager Winning Percentages

2009-11-03T17:00:48Z

The Mets have had nineteen managers in their 48 year history, from Casey Stengel, who helmed the incipient mess of the early sixties, to Jerry Manuel, who gangsta-fies the current bloated injury-fest. Davey Johnson has managed the most games (1012); Mike Cubbage has managed the fewest (7). Two have managed for parts of seven seasons (Johnson, Bobby Valentine); four have managed for less than one season (Cubbage, Salty Parker, Roy McMillan, Frank Howard).

Here is a chart of the winning percentages of all nineteen managers, from lowest to highest.

(click to embiggen)

We all know that a manager is really only as good as his players. Davey Johnson's players were great; Casey Stengel's were woeful. Considering the discourteous manner in which Willie Randolph was let go two seasons ago, and considering how unfavorably he seems to be remembered by Mets' fans, the man owns the second-highest winning percentage in team history, sandwiched between Met Rushmore skippers Valentine and Johnson.

Amazin' Avenue Refresh

2009-11-03T14:45:50Z

By now I'm sure you see the visual refresh that was implemented here (and across SB Nation) this morning. It's not a comprehensive redesign, but the look of the site has been tightened up, some fonts tweaked, some white space eliminated, and a few other minor layout changes put in place. The main goals of this refresh are to improve readability of the sites and speed up load times, two areas which folks have grumbled about in the past.

As with anything new, some people are going to be afraid of the changes and want to go back to the old way. I assure you that the changes were made for good reasons and that we'll all get used to them very soon. That said, sometimes there are a few hiccups along the way, so if you notice something that isn't working properly, use the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page and select "I think something is broken" from the subsequent page. This will send a note to our tech support team with whatever information you provide so they can take a look at the issue.

Poll

What do you think of the visual refresh?

Mets Winter League Update

2009-11-03T07:28:28Z

Mets Winter League Update

A way of keeping track of all our favorite farmies during the cold winter. So far the standouts are the four hitters with the most ABs. Here are some highlights:

Arizona Fall League

-We all know Ike Davis has been lighting it up with 9 XBH and a 1.010 OPS in just 54 PAs. Davis has been announced to as the lone Mets AFL participant who will go to Rising Stars game, which will air on the MLB Network this Saturday, Nov. 7, at 8PM.

-Ruben Tejada is also holding his own as one of the younger players on the circuit, hitting .316 / .372 / .395 in 42 PAs.

-Jenrry Mejia has been getting absolutely rocked. The positives include reports of his fastball frequently hitting 97 mph and reaching as high as 99 and the fact that he's struck out nine in 7.2 IP, but he's also walked nine and given up 14 hits, good for an ugly 12.91 ERA.

-Pure speculation, but the fact that Lucas Duda has played in just two games begs the injury question. Reese Havens has also only played four games, but as a member of the taxi squad, he's only available twice a week, so there's no such concern here.

-Scott Moviel is yet to give up a run in seven innings, but with a mark of 1.00 in both K/BB (3/3) and GO/AO, luck seems to be a factor here.

-Eric Niesen hasn't been nearly as fortunate, having given up a stunning 10 earned runs in just 3.2 innings.

-A look at the team pitching stats for the AFL tells you a bit about what kind of league it is. Three of the six teams in the league have staff ERAs over 6.00. Something to keep in mind when thinking about AFL performances.

Caribbean Leagues

-On the Caribbean Scene, Josh Thole has been pretty stellar with a .406 / .500 / .547 line and a ridiculous 11/5 BB/K in 76 PAs in the VWL.

-Chris Carter has been solid in the VWL as well, with a .306 / .382 / .449 line and 6/7 BB/K in 55 PAs. It'd be nice to see a bit more power, but any kind of production is encouraging.

-Tobi Stoner, playing the DWL, represents the one bright spot on the pitching side, though with just 9 Ks in 17 IP his .183 BAA does not seem remotely sustainable. I would not expect his 1.06 ERA and 0.82 WHIP to hold up for long. To his credit, he has issued just 3 BBs.

-What's that? Lance Broadway has a 2.79 ERA? Could the much maligned return on Ramon Castro actually be doing something productive? With a 14/10 K/BB in 19.1 IP, it doesn't seem likely.

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Carlos Delgado
Second Base	Anderson Hernandez
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Beltran
Right Field	Fernando Martinez
No. 1 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 2 Starter	Philip Humber
No. 3 Starter	John Maine
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Billy Wagner

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Fernando Martinez
Second Base	Greg Veloz
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Gomez
Right Field	Carlos Beltran
No. 1 Starter	John Maine
No. 2 Starter	Oliver Perez
No. 3 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Eddie Kunz