And Down The Stretch They Come

2012 Preakness: Black-eyed Susan Day

2012-05-18T14:12:22Z

Just a day to go before the Preakness, which means it's time for Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico. Below is a quick preview of the stakes action today at Old Hill Top.

I'll be at Pimlico all day today; you can follow my at @PressthePace on Twitter for pictures and assorted worthless commentary in 140 characters or less... or something like that.

Race 6 - The Skipat
6 furlongs, Dirt
3yo and up, Fillies and Mares

Bold Affair rolls into the Skipat after a couple of strong races at Laurel and Pimlico in her last two starts. She's solid at the track (4-3-0-1) and she loves the trip (8-4-1-2) and should be a tough customer for the rest of this field to handle.

Race 8 - The Miss Preakness
6 furlongs, Dirt
3yo, Fillies

Millionreasonswhy was third in her last start at Aqueduct but there's no disgrace finishing five lengths behind Broadway's Alibi in the G3-Comely. Her back class, ability to sit a length or two off of the lead, and her strong speed figures makes this filly the one to beat in the Miss Preakness

Say a Novena appears to be just a notch below the class of Millionreasonswhy but she's run well this year, even if she's failed to score a win in either of her Gulfstream starts.

Ageless is a nice looking lightly raced filly from the barn of Leigh Delacour that comes into this race off a couple of easy wins against MdSpWt and Allowance company. A daughter of Successful Appeal, Ageless should have a nice career in front of her but will find this a tough spot to bring home a third straight victory.

Agave Kiss rolls into this race a perfect five for five in her career, including a score in the G3-Cicada at Aqueduct back on March 10^th. She's posted 90+ Beyers in four of her five starts and she's yet to race behind another horse at any time in her career. She's the one to catch out of the gate.

Race 9 - Jim McKay Turf Sprint
5 furlongs, Turf
3yo and up

Maryland bred Ben's Cat appears to fit into this turf spring as well as any horse in the field. He's absolutely loves going five panels on the grass (8-6-1-0) and he's run well over the Pimlico lawn in the past (4-2-0-0). In his last start, he finished a hardluck 6^th after encountering all kinds of trouble in the early stages. He should be able to bounce back in this race and has to be considered one of the prime contenders for win honors. Of course, it's a turf sprint, so what do I know?

I like Fiddlers' Patriot as kind of a sleeper pick in this race for George Weaver. Fiddlers Patriot hasn't raced since the G1-Nearctic at Woodbine last October but he definitely possesses the back class to run with this field. Last June he finished second by a nose in the G2-Hilander. He's been fairly productive as a shipper over the course of his career and Weaver does well with horses coming off the bench. Could be a sneaky play in this spot.

Race 10 - G2-Black-Eyed Susan
1 1/8 miles, Dirt
3yo, Fillies

It's tough to ignore Welcome Guest in this spot after she ran a good second to Broadway's Alibi in the Comely. Probably a good idea to check out how Millionreasonswhy performs earlier on the card sicne this filly finished a length and a half in front of Millionreasonswhy.

Mamma Kimbo is going to take a lot of action at the windows after she rolled home in the G2-Fantasy after setting a solid pace. Her speed figures are quite strong and she appears to relish running over a route of ground. There isn't a ton of early speed in this race; Mamma Kimbo could be very hard to beat if she gets loose on the lead.

Race 11 - The Very One
5 furlongs, Tuf
3yo and up, Fillies and Mares

Really? Another turf sprint? I might be hitting the "all" button by this point on the card.

Jazzy Idea comes into the Very One in excellent form after back-to-back victories at Pimlico and Belmont. She's only finished out of the top 3 twice over her last ten races she'll get a nice jockey upgrade in Ramon Dominguez in this race.

Inspired didn't have the best of trips in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland but she's been in good form all spring once her connections got her back on the grass. She possesses a lot of gate speed and is capable of taking this field gate-to-wire.

Race 12: G3-Pimlico Special
1 3/16Miles, Dirt
3yo and up

The return of the Pimlico Special has attracted an excellent field of older males

Endoresement was a bright star just a couple of years ago as a three-year-old before injuries slowed down his development. He returned to the track last October after an absence of a year and a half, and has finally worked himself back into stakes-quality form. In his most recent race, he won the G3-Texas Mile at Loen Star after a rough start and a bit of a wide trip. This will be the longest race of Endoresement's career but he's bred to love the extra ground (by Distorted Humor out of an AP Indy mare (Charmed Gift)).

Nehro made a nice return to the track when he won an $17k OC race at the Fair Ground in late February but he appears to be a little over his head when finishing 6^th in the G2-Oaklawn Handicap on April 14^th. To be fair, Nehro didn't get a very good trip at Oaklawn, racing wide through much of the race, but he still appears to be just a cut below this group at this point in his development.

Mission Impazible always seems to give a good account of himself, no matter the level of competition he is facing. Unfortunately, he just doesn't win races very often. He's a must use in the eotics but I'm leery of any win bets tossed in his direction.

Alternation has been on absolute fire lately, winning three straight races, including the G2-Oaklawn Handicap and the G3-Razorback. On the downside, Alternation is a horse that has thrived at Oaklawn Park in his career but has failed to find that same success on at other tracks. He's obviously a legitimate contenders to win this race but it's hard to feel completely confident.

Race 13: The Hilltop
1 1/16 Miles, Dirt
3yo, Fillies

I love the look of Bill Mott's Anna Sophis in this race as she's been a much improved filly once she moved to the grass and got more ground to cover. This filly ahs a big closing kick but probably won't have a ton of pace to run at.

Preakness Travel Day

2012-05-17T15:46:51Z

I'm heading out to the airport in the next hour to catch a flight to D.C., so I'll be away from the site most of the day. I will be spending all day Friday and Saturday at Pimlico to experience the full effect of Kegasus and "Getting My Preak On"... if I can handle it.

I'll have a Black-Eyed Susan Day preview up late tonight/early tomorrow and a Preakness Day preview later on Friday night. Until then, happy handicapping.

2012 Preakness: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds

2012-05-16T22:18:26Z

The pills have been pulled and the field is set for Saturday's Grade 1 Preakness at Pimlico (post time: 6:18pm Eastern; TV: NBC). Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another drew post position #9 and is the second choice on the morning line at odds of 5/2. Bodemeister, runner-up to I'll Have Another in at Churchill Downs, drew post position #7 and is the morning line favorite at 8/5.

The two favorites should be happy with their draw; Bodemeister is right in the middle of the field and should easily be able to make the lead from the gate, while I'll Have Another draws outside his rival and should be able to stalk Bode all the way around the track.

Went the Day Well and Creative Cause, two more horses returning from the Derby, are the co-third choice on the morning line at odds of 6/1.

Six horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are returning for the Preakness: I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, Creative Cause, Went the Day Well, and Optimizer. New shooters joining the Triple Crown party are Cozzetti, Pretension, Teeth of the Dog, Tiger Walk and Zetterholm.

Below are the entries, post positions and morning line odds for Saturday's 2012 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

2012 Preakness Post Position Draw

2012-05-16T17:00:33Z

The draw for the 2012 Preakness is scheduled to take place at 6:00pm Eastern at Pimlico (TV: HRTV) and a field of ~~twelve~~ eleven (as noted below, longshot Guanna Star Dweej is out) is expected to enter the second leg of the Triple Crown, led by the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby: I'll Have Another and Bodemeister. While the draw for the Preakness isn't nearly as critical as the Derby, it's always an advantage for a horse to draw a post position that maximizes it's running style.

Due to the smaller field in the Preakness, and the gate set-up, the rail isn't the "death draw" that it tends to be at Churchill Downs. However, we haven't seen a horse win the Preakness from inside the 4-hole since 1994 when Tabasco Cat won from the rail. Additionally, prior to Tabasco Cat's win in 1994, the Preakness hadn't had a horse win from the rail since Belly Ache in 1960.

I'll be back later on this afternoon for a look at the Preakness draw.

2012 Preakness: Probable Field (Updated)

2012-05-15T22:24:36Z

With the defections of Dullahan, Hansen, Hierro and Isn't He Clever, the field for the 2012 Preakness is pretty close to set in anticipation of tomorrow's post position draw. The connections of Daddy Nose Best confirmed that the colt will participate in Saturday's race, which leaves us with a potential field of 12 11 for Saturday's race. If the current line-up remains, the Preakness field will contain six horses from the Derby and six "new shooters".

UPDATED: Guyanna Star Dweej is out due to injury.

Below are the probable starters for Saturday's Preakness Stakes.

Horse	Jockey	Trainer
Bodemeister	M. Smith	B. Baffert
Cozzetti	J. Lezcano	D. Romans
Creative Cause	J. Rosario	M. Harrington
Daddy Nose Best	J. Leparoux	S. Asmussen
~~Guyanna Star Dweej~~	~~A. Solis~~	~~D. Shivmangal~~
I'll Have Another	M. Gutierrez	D. O'Neill
Optimizer	C. Nakatani	D.W. Lukas
Pretension	J. Santiago	C. Grove
Teeth of the Dog	J. Bravo	M. Matz
Tiger Walk	K. Desormeaux	I. Correas
Went the Day Well	J. Velazquez	G. Motion
Zetterholm	J. Alvarado	R. Dutrow

Some thoughts on the potential field below the jump.

Unlike the Derby, the pace in the Preakness looks like it is going to be a lot less frantic. Bodemeister looks like he will be the leader going into the first turn, just like he was at Churchill Downs.

Brimstone Island ran on the lead during the first five races of his career, and then he started to employ different tactics in his last four outings. I think it's doubtful that he'll challenge Bode for the lead in the early stages.

Isn't He Clever has shown some speed in the past but not to the extent of Bode; he'll probably get a good stalking trip but he's unlikely to be on the lead.

Both Paynter and Teeth of the Dog have shown flashes of early speed in their prior races but, like most of the horses in this field, they haven't consistently displayed the kind of speed that Bob Baffert's top gun has . Paynter pressed into a very fast pace in the Derby Trial but that came over an off-track and it remains to be seen whether he can unleash that kind of early pace on a fast track.

So what's this all mean? Sure looks like Bodemeister will get the lead all to himself in the early stages of the Preakness. If he's able to avoid throwing down a :45 second half mile (and a 1:09 split at six furlongs) he might be very tough to get by in the stretch.
Creative Cause should be able to get a much better trip in the Preakness than he did in the Derby, which should allow him to sit closer to Bodemeister over the first half mile. He's got a good late kick but 12 lengths was just too much to overcome in the Derby.
Like Creative Cause, Derby winner I'll Have Another should also be able to secure a nice stalking trip all the way around the Pimlico main track. The race sets up well for him to have a shot at taking the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Hierro, Derby Trial Winner, To Bypass Preakness

2012-05-15T19:21:25Z

Hierro, Derby Trial Winner, To Bypass Preakness

Depending on what the connections of Daddy Nose Best decide, it looks like we'll have a field of 11 or 12 for Saturday's Preakness.

Frankel (GB) Returns At Newbury On Saturday

2012-05-14T20:20:43Z

Frankel (GB) Returns At Newbury On Saturday

The undefeated Frankel (GB) will make his 2012 debut in the one mile Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday morning. Newbury runs their one mile events on the straight over an undulating course typical of most in Europe.

2012 Black-Eyed Susan: Entries, Post Positions and Morning Line Odds

2012-05-14T20:10:51Z

Mamma Kimbo, winner of the G2-Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park in her last start, leads a field of nine three-year-old fillies in Friday's G2-Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico (post time: 4:46pm Eastern; TV: NBCSN). The Bob Baffert trained Mamma Kimbo broke her maiden in late February at Santa Anita Park while posting a 105 Beyer Speed Figure before shipping to Oaklawn for the Fantasy. A daughter of Discreet Cat out of a Devil's Bag mare (Bag Lady Jane), Mamma Kimbo will be ridden by Mike Smith.

Plum, a daughter of Pure Prize, is the only Maryland-bred filly in the Black-Eyed Susan field. Trained by Rodney Jenkins, Plum won an optional claiming/N3X allowance race at Pimlico in her last start.

In Lingerie, the runaway winner of the G3-Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway in her last start, is the third choice on the morning line at 9/2. In Lingerie has two wins from three lifetimes starts but has never won a race on conventional dirt; both of her victories came over the Polytrack surface at Turfway.

Below are the entries and post positions for Friday's G2-Black-Eyed Susan

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Glinda the Good	C. Nakatani	S. Asmussen	12/1
2	Disposablepleasure	J. Castellano	T. Pletcher	5/1
3	Welcome Guest	R. Dominguez	C. Brown	4/1
4	Mamma Kimbo	M. Smith	B. Baffert	7/5
5	Oaks Lily	J. Leparoux	T. Hills	30/1
6	Plum	A. Castellano	R. Jenkins	30/1
7	In Lingerie	J. Velazquez	T. Pletcher	9/2
8	Wildcat's Smile	R. Napravnik	D. Galluscio	10/1
9	Zucchini Flower	S. Russell	G. Motion	10/1