Athletics Nation

2009 SB Nation Baseball Awards: Rookie of the Year

2009-11-11T17:47:35Z

I'm technically a day behind the SBN sites who participated in the voting, but yesterday's fantastic post deserved its own full day. If you are a Rays fan who just registered for AN for the trade discussion, please feel free to participate in the post below.

This year, SB Nation took a vote on the major baseball award categories and I thought Rookie of the Year would mean the most to AN. Obviously, our very own Andrew Bailey is up for the award, which will be announced next week.

Here are the results of the SB Nation poll; Bailey received the highest number of first place votes, but ultimately lost out to Elvis Andrus.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

One of those first place votes was mine.

I wrote this piece on Bailey in early September, comparing his numbers to Huston Street's ROY numbers in 2005. Bailey has since surpassed these numbers, which would have given him the award four years ago. However, this year's A's closer is up against a deserving Andrus, and the tough pitching competition of Niemann and Porcello.

There is no real way to tell which way the voters will go until the award is announced, but I am even more convinced now than I was in September that Andrew Bailey deserves the award. And not because I'm comparing Bailey to other rookies, but because I'm comparing him to the very best closers in the league.

The Bill James Handbook shows us the numbers (out of top 10):

Relief Opp Batting Average

Bailey #1
Nathan #2
Rivera #9

Relief Earned Run Average

Rivera #2
Bailey #3
Nathan#6

Rel Opp BA w/ Runners On

Rivera #1
Nathan #2
Bailey #4

Strikeout/Hit Ratio

Nathan #1
Bailey #4

Relief Opp On Base Pct.

Bailey #2
Rivera #4
Nathan #5

Relief Opp Slugging Avg.

Bailey #2
Nathan #6
Rivera #9

Bailey wasn't just good this year; he was great. But he has a few disadvantages that may cost him the award.

1) The A's weren't competitive this year. At any point.
2) Bailey didn't become the team closer until well into the season. He missed several save ops, and 30+ saves may have been the difference in securing that first place vote.
3) He is up against some stiff competition; including fellow pitchers.

Was he good enough in 2009 on a bad team to overcome the odds? Do you agree or disagree with the SB Nation blogger votes? Who do you think will win the ROY?

Comparative Advantage: A Collaborative A's/Rays Solution

2009-11-10T07:55:07Z

I've been paying close attention to trades for a few years now. And I have to say, rarely if ever have I seen a better match than the Rays and the A's right now. Each team has areas of significant strength and significant weakness. With the exception of outfielders, each team's strength happens to BE the other team's weakness. And both have a number of tradable assets unencumbered by bloated salaries or impending free agency. They really need to get together and make a deal, and I'm here to tell you have.

Warning: This is really long. I tend toward the verbose at the best of times, and the rambling at the worst. If you want the quick and dirty, skip down to the two bolded trade proposals at the bottom of the post.

Point The First: The Rays Have Too Many Infielders

Here are the triple-slash lines and WAR figures posted by the Rays' starting infielders in the 2009 season.

Jason Bartlett: .320/.389/.490; 4.8 WAR

Ben Zobrist: .297/.405/.543; 8.5 WAR

Evan Longoria: .281/.364/.526; 7.3 WAR

Carlos Pena: .227/.356/.537; 2.7 WAR

It's hard to argue that this was not the best infield in baseball in 2009. The Yankees were pretty good, but the Rays fielded the single-year equivalent of 2 Hall of Famers, another All-Star, and an average starter for a playoff team. That's insane. These men are not losing their jobs, regression to the mean be damned.

That said, the Rays also currently have three backups available:

Sean Rodriguez

Willy Aybar

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura has already been dumped. I wasn't a fan of that trade at all-- they seem to have panicked and feared being stuck with him through the start of next season. I can't imagine how that could have happened-- he's basically an average starter signed to a contract that pays him like a backup or fringe starter. Someone would have absorbed it. But it's all water under the bridge now.

Rodriguez is a quality prospect acquired from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade. The A's seem to like him, and were rumored to be considering a swap which would have sent Michael Wuertz to the Angels for him, although like all trade rumors, it's unclear how much credence we should put in that. While he's struggled badly in his MLB time so far, he's posted solid walk rates throughout his career in the minors, posted the usual ridiculous power numbers for an Angels prospect (if chicks really do dig the longball, the Salt Lake Bees' home park must be quite the dating opportunity) and appears to be able to handle several infield positions competently.

Aybar is a backup/platoon infielder. He's poor against lefthanded pitching and average at defense at 2B and 3B, so he's not well suited to be a starter. He won't be discussed further here; I'm assuming he will be kept on the Rays bench as the sixth infielder.

Reid Brignac is another former top prospect, and like Rodriguez he's struggled in very limited MLB time. He's still young (2010 will represent his age 24 season), has shown decent pop in the minors (career minor league isolated power of .167; hit 24 home runs in 2006) and is viewed as having a strong glove by most scouts and by TotalZone. Unlike Rodriguez, however, he lacks patience at the plate.

As things stand, the Rays will almost certainly be forced to send one of Rodriguez and Brignac to the minors. This seems suboptimal, as one of them will probably be playing a role sooner rather than later and both are essentially big-league ready. Instead, Tampa should look to move one of their infielders to address other weak spots on the roster.

Point The Second: The Rays' Catching Situation, By And Large, Sucks

Let's start with the general and move to the specific here. The 2009 Rays offense was very strong overall-- indeed, it set a team record for runs scored. It was, however, marred by two severe weak points. One of those was center field, manned by former wunderkind B.J. Upton. This is not the time or place to attempt an explanation of his troubles; let's just say that given his age and defensive acumen, he's on a sufficiently long leash that the Rays are likely not looking to upgrade center field. The other black hole was at catcher.

Even by the rather feeble standards of catcher offense, the Rays were horrible. Their catchers put up a combined .233/.276/.349 line, good for an sOPS+ of 74 (indicating that they were 26/2=13% worse than an average team at that position). Rays catchers were good for all of 0.8 WAR on the season, or almost a win and a half below average. The primary culprit was also the primary starter, Dioner Navarro, who followed up an uncharacteristically good 2008 with a genuinely horrible season. In just less than three full seasons' worth of PA, he has racked up an offensive value of -45.9 runs by Fangraphs. This is not that terrible-- as mentioned, catchers are awful offensively and the positional value of 12.5 runs largely cancels it out. Still, expecting even league-average play out of Navarro next season seems very optimistic.

The gaggle of backup catchers in the system are even less awe-inspiring. Michel Hernandez served as the primary backup in 2009, but he's 30 years old and hasn't even lost his rookie status yet. As far as I can tell, he's been released. Gregg Zaun could still end up taking arbitration, though his option was declined; his numbers are actually quasi-respectable, but he's approximately 60 years old and clearly not a long-term solution. Shawn Riggans barely played in 2009 and was horrible when he did; his career MLB wOBA is .274, and while that's a small sample, he's turning 30 next year and there's little reason to expect improvement. John Jaso, the last real internal option, has great plate discipline but is dogged by persistent questions about his defensive abilities and suffered a major power outage in 2009. The fact that he wasn't even called up to the big leagues once in 2009 is an implied vote of no confidence from Rays brass.

There's little help available on the free agent market. Tampa can likely find some more Riggins types by dumpster-diving (hello, Eliezer Alfonso-- how's it hangin'?) but that's about all that's out there. Jason Varitek is probably the best MLB free agent catcher, which is amazing. There's nothing there; if they want a chance to improve, it'll be by trade.

Enter Oakland, which has a surplus of catching talent right now. The MLB job is safely in the hands of Kurt Suzuki, who rarely sits and racks up value through playing time and defense while being passable with the bat. The A's also have three additional catchers at or near the major-league level and under team control, however-- Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Recker. Powell has had a ton of health problems and while he'd be a pretty solid candidate for a starter's job without them, that's water under the bridge at this point. Recker profiles more like Jaso, with more power and less plate discipline. He's a solid candidate for a team's second or third catcher, but it's a stretch to see him starting for anyone other than a team desperate for a warm body not named Rod Barajas.

The key to the whole situation is Josh Donaldson, who has put up some weird numbers in the minors (especially a walk rate which has fluctuated from amazing to actually below average) but, overall, a very strong hitting line since being drafted in the first round in 2007. He's still young for a catcher, turning 24 in a few months, and while his defense is not fabulous (Pravda claims some improvement in his skills, but those articles have to be read as carefully as Livy to figure out the grains of truth in them), he should hit legitimately at the major league level, something that any team has to hope for out of their catcher spot.

Donaldson would instantly become the best catcher in the Rays' system not named Navarro. In the best case scenario, in which Navarro hits like 2008 and a re-signed Zaun miraculously holds off demon Age for another season, he polishes his skills in AAA prior to a September callup. In the worst case scenario, Zaun falls apart, Navarro hits like it's... well, not 2008, and Donaldson is starting in the bigs by June. Navarro is nontendered that offseason and Donaldson takes the reins for the foreseeable future.

Point the Third: Oakland Lives, Breathes and Excretes Bullpen Pitchers

Here's something like what the current depth chart for Oakland's bullpen looks like.

RHP:

Michael Wuertz

Sam Demel

LHP:

For the most part, this excludes starting pitchers. Eveland could theoretically get a starting job, but it's hard to see how at this point.

In any event, this is insane. There are 13 guys at Oakland or Sacramento who could be average or better relief pitchers. This is despite the subtraction of two significant prospects, Daniel Thomas and Andrew Carignan, to shoulder issues; despite the subtraction of 2008 mainstay Andrew Brown to the same (Tangent: anyone heard any news on whether he's managed to make a recovery? I loved that guy... he was such an odd character...); and not counting several intriguing pitchers lower down in the system like Mickey Storey and Paul Smyth.

[Tangent: Notice the origins of these guys? Santiago Casilla and Henry Rodriguez were signed as low-profile international free agents. Eveland was a peripheral piece of a major trade. Wuertz was acquired for two organizational players. Blevins was acquired for half a season of Jason Kendall. Devine was picked up for one season of Mark Kotsay. Meloan and Breslow were acquired for bupkis-- they were waiver claims. Brad Ziegler was signed as a minor league free agent. Then there are the draftees: Demel (3rd round), Bailey (6th round), Kilby (29th round), and Jeff Gray (32nd round).

The sum total of the resources the A's spent on this incredible collection of bullpen talent was four mid-to-late round picks, two C- prospects, and the corpses of two formerly good major leaguers. This is an object lesson in why it is never, ever, ever acceptable to expend a first-round draft pick on a relief pitcher. Ever. Or sign a Type A free agent relief pitcher.]

[Tangent to the tangent: What would happen if teams actually took this to heart? Type A relievers would virtually be forced to take arbitration if a team offered it-- indeed, that may already be the case in practice for anyone but the creme de la creme. It certainly presents an odd scenario. I'll be watching that situation with alert interest this offseason.]

Bottom line: The A's can afford to part with 3 or 4 of these pitchers without any real hesitation. That still leaves more than enough depth to withstand injuries. The team will probably trawl the minor league free agent list again this offseason to find one or two more guys worthy of a shot, and if a major crisis hits they might be turned to. Otherwise, even a denuded bullpen will be sufficient.

The Rays do not enjoy the same situation. Or, really, anything close to it. For whatever reason, their otherwise crack GM team has not succeeded in consistently putting together a good bullpen. It was briefly decent in 2008, but that was on the back of journeyman Grant Balfour, whose season that year now looks like an all-time fluke. He's still under team control in 2009, but might not even be tendered a contract. The only genuinely good reliever the Rays have at the major league level is J.P. Howell. Dan Wheeler has a spot because he's a sunk cost, but it confounds me that a team with the Rays' financial limitations gave a $10M contract to a mediocre relief pitcher. Randy Choate is decent and probably fills the second lefty spot.

Is there any help in Durham? The Bulls were an excellent minor league team this season, losing the AAA championship game to the Memphis Redbirds (who unseated the RiverCats from the PCL throne in a three-game sweep). Not much there, though. Winston Abreu had a great season, but he's 32 and hasn't stuck in the bigs in three tries despite consistently shredding AAA lineups. Like most of the Rays bullpen, he's incredibly prone to the gopherball.

As a result, the Rays need at least one and probably two good right-handed relief pitchers if they intend to compete in 2010 (as they should). They have two choices. One is to convert one of their excellent starting pitching prospects to the bullpen. The other is to make a trade.

Here's the thing, though-- starters are worth more than relievers. Way more. Converting starting pitching prospects to the pen is a wasteful process. The Rays can obtain surplus value by dealing one of those starters to a team with a surplus of good relief pitchers-- and coincidentally enough (OK, not coincidentally at all) the A's are exactly such a team. The A's need to concentrate value. The Rays actually need to spread it out, or at least move it from one part of the roster to the other. We've got a tailor-made trade situation here.

Point the Fourth: Putting the Pieces Together

Warning: The following requires large amounts of half-assed guesswork and projection based on minimal data samples. If this offends you, please stop reading, or at least skip to the end so you can tell me how obviously unfair this trade is to the [A's/Rays].

Donaldson

Let's take Josh Donaldson first, as he's the one guy we know is moving. The MLE for his performance this year was a line of .209/.291/.324. That looks really terrible, but it's deceptive. One wouldn't expect a 23-year-old to particularly dominate the minors. Also, it's based on a BABIP of .249, which seems comically low even for a catcher. It should be reasonable to predict improvement from that mark over the next few seasons.

The MLE line would be in the neighborhood of 20 runs below average over 120 games' worth of play. Over the same period he would accrue about 23 runs in positional value and playing-time value. That would make him worth about 0.3 WAR this season. He's a bit of an iffy defender, though, so let's call him exactly replacement level this season.

I'm going to project steady improvement over the next three seasons, though. Partly because it's easy and partly because it represents the center of a probability distribution ranging from "no improvement at all" to "breakout to star-level offense." Let's assume he picks up about 6 runs a season per year for the next three years, and that he plays only half a season next year (60 games). Let's also assume he starts declining in his age 30 season at half the rate that he ascended at. His value then looks like this:

0.3+1.2+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.5=10.2 WAR

Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez had a rather excellent season in AAA this year, posting an MLE line of .236/.325/.452. He has also, however, struggled terribly in the majors so far in his young career. It's nothing that can't be overcome (a mere 216 plate appearances) but in those PAs he's put up the ugly line of .203/.276/.333, coincidentally rather similar to Donaldson's MLE from this year. That being said, it has to be leavened with the AAA numbers. Right now, if Rodriguez were to step into a lineup and play everyday, I'd peg him for around a .700 OPS. While he's slightly older than Donaldson, he should also improve steadily over the next few seasons. His bat probably has a bit more upside in it, so I'll call his improvement 8 runs a season until his age 26 season.

We have only tiny samples of major league play to go on when it comes to defense for Rodriguez. Some TotalZone has tended to characterize him as about an average infielder in the minors, oddly varying not a jot from position to position. Let's call him an average second baseman, as that weighs his apparent decency at shortstop against the fact that average in AAA is probably below average in the majors. What value does all of this give us?

Right now, he would be roughly 10 runs below average with the stick, with a +2.5 position/defense adjustment and 20-ish replacement runs for a WAR of about 1.3. Measuring that out (I won't bother declining him at age 30, as infielders tend to last longer than catchers):

1.3+2.1+2.9+2.9+2.9+2.9=15 WAR

Hm. Pretty valuable. More so than Donaldson. If he's the return piece, we'll need the other half of the trade to make up some ground.

Brignac

You can really see the difference in MLEs between the International League and the Texas League here, as Brignac comes in ahead of Donaldson in MLE (.245/.281/.354) despite posting a significantly worse in-season hitting line. Disappointingly, however, his line has basically stagnated since he was 20. This stagnation has been matched with a stagnation in his prospect stock, as he's failed to improve while other top prospects have passed him by. I'm a bit surprised to see he only received a grade of C+ from John Sickels last season.

What can we project from him moving forward? He doesn't have fantastic hitting skills; his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired and his power production has, like the rest of his offensive game, seemingly stalled. Right now, he would hit at about 20 runs below average. I'm going to project an improvement of 3 runs a season to age 27.

On defense, it's a different story. TotalZone pretty much thinks he's the bee's vertebrae, if not quite knees-- he scored poorly this year but very well in every prior year. I'm fairly comfortable penciling him in as an above-average MLB shortstop. Let's say 2.5 RAA so that it plus the positional adjustment makes him 10 RAA as a fielder. Add in 20 replacement runs, and right now he'd be worth about 1 WAR. Again, I'm going to project a half-season from him next year and then six years beyond that.

0.5+1.3+1.6+1.9+1.9+1.9+1.9=11 WAR

Seemingly a little better than Donaldson, but in the ballpark where a swap of the two is likely to benefit both teams.

Relievers

Thankfully, we don't have to get into the heavy-duty (and heavy-handed) guesswork here. Most of these guys have actual track records.

The Elite

Bailey: Nasty 2.56 FIP this season led him to accumulate 2.4 WAR. Assuming some regression to the mean, he's probably good for at least 1.5 for the next 5 seasons. Of course, he's a pitcher, so we'd better mark in some discount for injury risk (especially since he already has one round of Tommy John on his CV). Call it 1.2, then, implying that he's worth about 6 WAR overall.

Wuertz: Even nastier 2.37 FIP this season, though he's not been as good in prior years. Probably about as good as Bailey going forward, since the personal "mean" that he's regressing to looks a lot like the league mean that Bailey is regressing to, but he's only under contract for 2 more (relatively expensive) seasons. Worth about 2.4 WAR, but they're less efficient than the other prospects'.

The Very Good

Ziegler: FIP doesn't really do Brad Ziegler enough credit because of his insanely high ground ball rate. His home run rate is tiny, of course, but they also get him out of a lot of jams through double plays. In his first two seasons, one a partial year, he's assembled 2.1 WAR. After we discount for injury risk (which might be lower for submariners but-- as Pat Neshek could tell you-- doesn't disappear), he looks to be worth about .9 WAR a season to me, or 4.5 over 5 years.

Joey Devine: His 2008 FIP was sick (under 2) but somewhat based on not actually allowing ANY homers on 44 flyballs. This is not likely to continue. He also had some crappy performances in prior years (albeit in very small samples). Health is clearly an issue for him seeing as how he missed the whole 2009 season with Tommy John. I'm going to assume he misses the first 2 months of next year rehabbing, and discount him by 50% to account for injuries. That pegs him at about 0.7 WAR a season after next year and about 0.5 WAR next year, for a total of 3.3 over 5 years.

Jerry Blevins: He was squeezed out of the bullpen in a numbers game this year, but the man knows how to pitch. Only three lefthanded relievers with at least 20 IP bettered his 3.01 FIP in 2009, and that number was assembled without the benefit of a ridiculous home run rate. He's somewhat flyball prone, so he's unlikely to be truly elite, but he's amassed 0.9 WAR in about a year's worth of IP, and he's pretty durable. Regressing that somewhat, but accounting for the fact that he still has 6 years of control (I think), he should be worth around 4 WAR.

The OK

Craig Breslow: Something of a revelation this year, as he pitched competently for the A's after a waiver claim. Amazingly, this is his fifth organization in five years. He's been averaging about 0.6 WAR per season (roughly a league-average reliever), but he's no spring chicken and will probably decline somewhat over the 4 years remaining before he would become a free agent. Overall probably worth around 1.5 WAR.

Dana Eveland: Had a horrible season as a starter this year, but his fringy control and decent lefty stuff might play a bit better in a bullpen role. His career FIP of 4.36 would probably drop some, to more like 4-- still not great, but good enough to make him an option as a second lefty. Four seasons of Eveland at 0.4 WAR a pop put his value at about 1.6 WAR total.

The Mediocre

Santiago Casilla: In six partial seasons, Casilla has only managed to amass 0.4 WAR total. He may or may not be better than Jesse Chavez, since at least he's in positive territory, but he never really seemed to recover from an elbow sprain in May 2008, as his control seemingly vanished after the injury. He's now up for arbitration and will probably be nontendered. Might be useful as a throw-in in our trade, though, so let's credit him with 0.3 WAR value (0.1 a season).

The Prospects

Jeff Gray: His numbers make him look like a control specialist, but he does throw fairly hard. He's been a bit longball-prone in his career, which would make him fit right in on the Rays' staff (... sorry). Does get ground balls, though, if not quite at the rate of college chum Ziegler (interestingly, the other future MLB player on their team at the time was, of all people, Ryan Howard). He hasn't dominated the minors, so expecting him to be more than an average reliever is probably excessively optimistic. Discounting for injury risk, he's probably worth about 2.5 WAR total.

Brad Kilby: If you haven't watched his pitching motion, check it out. It's a trip. He literally hides the ball behind his left butt-cheek until he's halfway through his delivery. This apparently works like a charm, because he struck out 97 batters in 80 1/3 innings this season. Unlike Gray, Kilby HAS dominated the minors, and while his fastball isn't shooting off sparks as it approaches the plate, he's got good velocity on it for a lefty reliever. This year he was on pace to be worth about 1.6 WAR. Discounting that as usual, but keeping in mind his stellar track record and sturdy build, he seems like a 1 WAR a year kind of guy, and that's worth a total of 5.5 or so over 6 seasons, discounting a bit for decline at the end.

Henry Rodriguez: There probably isn't a pitcher with a more unhittable fastball in all of prospect-dom. Unfortunately, the strategy to beat Henry Rodriguez does not involve swinging at said fastball. He walked 41 batters in 52 1/3 innings this season. He has also, for whatever reason, consistently posted BABIPs against that range from bad to baffling. If Barry Zito is one end of the BABIP-as-skill spectrum, so far it looks like Rodriguez is at the extreme other end. Trying to project him as a reliever is basically hopeless, so I'm going to give up and pretend that he's 2009 Carlos Marmol, who posted a WAR of 0.6 despite being very lucky on home run balls. I'll credit Rodriguez with 0.3 WAR a season, or a total of 1.8 over six years.

John Meloan: Hm, seems he was already in Tampa's system earlier this year. Whoops-a-daisy. He seemed to finally put it together late this season after yo-yoing around half the parks in AAA. Trying to make head or tail out of a statline which has seen him play in 14 different parks in 4 seasons is not easy, but he looks sort of averagey, maybe a bit worse. I'm calling him the same as Rodriguez, albeit for different reasons. Another 1.8 WAR player.

Sam Demel: The wildest card of all, as he's never played in the majors. He's consistently maintained about a strikeout an inning in the minors, though, and while his control isn't all that great, it comes with a power sinker which gets a ton of ground balls (55.4% for his career) and two offspeed pitches. He looks a lot like a young Jason Grimsley, who varied from good to awful at times in his major league career, but was if nothing else always interesting to watch. (As far as I know, Demel doesn't have the roid rage. But he's pretty comparable otherwise.) Projecting his skill is pure guesswork, but I think he'll put up 3 WAR or so in his period of team control. Your mileage may vary.

Let's map out some potential trades, then.

Donaldson should mostly cover the value of Brignac, if the A's want him. If they prefer Sean Rodriguez, we're looking at dealing one of the high-value relievers along with him. Donaldson plus Devine gets most of the way there, but the Rays will probably be looking for more. Throwing in Jeff Gray would make the values very close to even and seems like an excellent trade for both teams. Brignac is undoubtedly capable of handling any infield position well enough, and even if there's an adjustment period, Aybar is also available to cover the corner spots. Meanwhile, the Rays turn the surplus from the Kazmir deal into one reliever who is elite if healthy, another who seems to be pretty decent, and the catcher of the future.

Trade Proposal One: Donaldson, Devine and Gray for Sean Rodriguez

Now, what about if the Rays really want to keep Rodriguez? Donaldson for Brignac is a fairly even swap, but the Rays clearly can take advantage of Oakland's pitching depth. What else have they got in return? Well, as I mentioned, they've got a bunch of starting pitching prospects lurking around. Nick Barnese, Adam Moore, and Jake McGee are intriguing.

Barnese has suffered some injury problems but overall did well in Low-A ball this season. His strikeout rate was down a little, but he has quality stuff and projectability on his side, along with youth.

Matt Moore is a bit better than Barnese from the statistical side of things, except that he's had command issues at times. His strikeout rate is disgusting (and constant-- basically about 12.8 per 9 innings throughout his pro career). He did a better job than Barnese of staying healthy this season.

Jake McGee is a bit older and would be closer to the majors, except that he had Tommy John surgery in mid-2009 and only just got back into the swing of things late this year. He played some rookie ball this year and predictably blew it away, but struggled some in High-A ball. A lot of that was bad BABIP, but it does raise some concern over whether he's really 100%.

I think McGee is the right choice here. Moore and Barnese are a few years away, and by that time, the Rays may need reinforcements for their rotation. Right now, those concerns are nonexistent. Price/Shields/Garza/Davis/Niemann is as good a group as any in the game.

So the question then becomes how much reliever value is needed to cancel out the starter value of McGee. He has high flameout potential (there's probably a 50% or greater chance he never starts a game in the majors) but also high upside. There's no question but that the Rays will want two guys back, and they need righties more than lefties at this point.

The Devine/Gray package again looks fairly attractive here, or the Rays might prefer Ziegler. Their need for right-handed relief that can get righties out is acute, and few are better than Ziegler at that task. They'd probably want a prospect included with him, and it makes sense for the A's to give them one. Again Rodriguez seems to make a lot of sense, but if they're not interested in dealing with his issues, Gray probably offers similar value in a different sort of package.

Thus, we have

Trade Proposal #2: Josh Donaldson, Brad Ziegler, and Henry Rodriguez for Reid Brignac and Jake McGee.

You must be champing at the bit right now, either to tell me how awful my logic is, or how you wish this trade would happen but it never will, or something. Fire away. I've invited DRaysBay over to participate in what I hope will be a collaborative process, so be nice to them.

Have at ye. I'll check back in in the morning to see what's the haps.

Scrapbook Memories: 1989 World Series, Game 3, Part 2

2009-11-09T16:00:19Z

Scrapbook Memories celebrates the 20th anniversary of Oakland's last World Series triumph. Since the day they set foot in Arizona some seven months prior, the A's mission for 1989 was clear; a wildly successful 1988 season had ended with a thud, leaving a sour taste in their collective mouths, and a sense of unfinished business. After disposing of the Toronto Blue Jays in five hard-fought games, the A's allowed a single run to the San Francisco Giants in the first two World Series contests, putting them two victories from being crowned champions for the first time since 1974.

Just when it seemed there was nothing to derail Oakland's date with destiny, a massive earthquake shook the Bay Area a few minutes from the commencement of Game 3. While the region healed, baseball took its proper place. It would be a full ten days before the teams would again take the field at Candlestick Park. Prior to 1989, the longest delay in World Series play was six days. That was in 1911, and the participants were the (Philadelphia) A's and (New York) Giants.

ABC's Al Michaels, as told to a nationwide audience before Game 3, Part 2 (you can read the first part here):

"...And now on October 27, like a fighter who's taken a vicious blow to the stomach and has groggily arisen, this region moves on and moves ahead."

"And one part of that scenario is the resumption of the World Series. No one in this ballpark tonight- no player, no vendor, no fan, no writer, no announcer, in fact, no one in this area period- can forger the images. The column of smoke in the Marina. The severed bridge. The grotesque tangle of concrete in Oakland. The pictures are embedded in our minds."

"And while the mourning and the suffering and the aftereffects will continue, in about thirty minutes the plate umpire, Vic Voltaggio will say ‘Play Ball', and the players will play, the vendors will sell, the announcers will announce, the crowd will exhort. And for many of the six million people in this region, it will be like revisiting Fantasyland."

"But Fantasyland is where baseball comes from anyway and maybe right about now that's the perfect place for a three-hour rest."

Oakland manager Tony La Russa had kept his players' eyes on the prize by flying them to Phoenix for two days of workouts, but clearly there was a wide array of emotions (excerpt from "Three Weeks in October"):

"We showed up in Arizona and there were all these people in the stands. That really touched me. It's like somebody was saying, ‘Baseball is great. Baseball means something.' When the day was over, I felt this tugging," he said, pointing to his heart. "I had some positive vibes, but then I had another tug. A different kind. I was embarrassed. I mean, aren't we supposed to feel guilty? It confused the hell out of me. When I drive by 880, I feel a lot of emotion. Then about 10 miles down the road I'm getting full of myself. And I start feeling guilty again."

La Russa said he would tell his team before Game 3: "Be honest. If you feel good, you deserve to feel good. They're calling this the forgotten World Series, but if you play well in this situation, it will have more meaning than any other World Series that has come before. Nobody's ever been asked to do this."

Indeed.

As I recall it, when I left work with my brother John that October 27, at the same time as we did ten days before, there was a general uneasiness going home. Like, can it really happen again? The entire family gathered at Mom's for this one; with some of us attending the games in Oakland, this was the first time we were able to take in a World Series contest together. Inside Candlestick Park, there was a festive mood, like "Now where were we?" The earthquake had brought this region, hardly antagonistic to begin with, even closer. All that was needed was for the A's to actually show up. Steve Wulf, Sports Illustrated:

By the time the Series resumed, it was permissible to joke a little about the circumstances. The Battle of the Bay had become the Rattle of the Bay, and Candlestick Park was dubbed Wiggly Field by columnist Herb Caen of the San Francisco Chronicle. Early arrivals checked out the park, and the only thing they could find awry was that the A's were missing. The team bus had been stuck in traffic on the San Mateo Bridge - the alternate route they had to take because of the damage to the Bay Bridge - and they arrived at Candlestick nearly an hour late for batting practice. "I wasn't worried," said first baseman Mark McGwire. "I'm from Southern California, so I find traffic relaxing. Besides, they weren't going to start the game without us."

The Giants might have had a chance if they did start without them. If the Series' competitive fire had been reduced to a flicker during the layoff, it took just three batters for it to light up again. Scott Garrelts twice threw high-and-tight to Jose Canseco, who was upset enough about being mired in a 0-for-23 Series skid (dating back to Game 1 of the previous season). And so the Giant woke up the giant; the slumbering, slumping Canseco, who promptly singled past the shortstop.

Then it was Dave Henderson's turn, who hit what we all thought was a home run (including Hendu, who did his little homer hop) but instead it hit off the top of the fence for a two-run double (Carney Lansford had singled ahead of Canseco). Just like that, the A's were on top.

Rickey Henderson, who had a subpar game- well, for him- in Game 3 (1-for-5, 1 run scored), did find time to double to lead off the third, and swipe third base, his record eleventh steal of these playoffs.

In the top of the fourth, Hendu led off with a shot that did clear the fence and two batters later, Tony Phillips joined the bashers with a blast of his own. Exit Garrelts, after allowing four runs on six hits in 3.1 innings of work.

The Giants came back with two runs in the bottom half to close within 4-3, but Mark McGwire kept Oakland in front with a diving stop at first and a flip to starter Dave Stewart. Then the A's put the game out of reach with four in the fifth, the first three coming when Canseco took Kelly Downs downtown and the last one coming on Hendu's second home run of the night.

Carney Lansford's home run with two outs in the sixth gave the A's five big flies on the night; not since the 1928 New York Yankees had a ball club put on such a power display in the World Series. It was Lansford (3-for-4, 4 runs, 2 RBI's), Canseco (3-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBI's), and of course, Dave Henderson (3-for-4, 2 runs, 4 RBI's) who swung the biggest bats in Game 3.

Almost lost amid the parade of elephants was Dave Stewart, who was his usual stellar self. Already idolized within the community for his efforts on the field, the St. Elizabeth High grad turned in his A's cap for a hard hat during the layoff, pitching in wherever he might be needed. When La Russa looked to him in Game 3, Stew simply pitched: seven innings, five hits, three runs, one walk, eight strikeouts. Winner of 62 regular-season games from 1987-89, Stew became the first man in history to record two victories in both the League Championship Series and World Series in the same year.

The A's, as a unit, earned straight A's this evening, tacking on four more runs in the eighth and steamrolling to a 13-7 win.

Rules That Need To Be Changed

2009-11-08T15:00:26Z

Speaking of umpires, umpires need to enforce the rules rather than either making them up ("No, that's only a strike when the count is 3-0"), inventing them ("Ah, that's the 'neighborhood play' as found in section...um, section...well it's the 'neighborhood play'"), ignoring them ("You have 20 seconds to throw the pitch, Betancourt, and you're now at 18...19...19.5...19.9...19.92...Seriously, throw it soon, ok?"), not noticing them ("No, he's not out unless he's tagged while not on the base. He was? Right in front of me? You don't say!"), or randomly channeling Shakespeare ("Ah, but Mauer, you see: Fair is foul...").

And while we're asking the umpires to enforce the rules, could we make a few of the rules better? Some changes I'd like to see...

* Rule Change #1: You can make two trips to the mound each inning before you must make a pitching change. And this includes the catcher.

This would speed up games and would also force baseball players to play the game like athletes do in every other sport. In basketball, you don't see the point guard drive to the left wing, look at the center posting up, and go, "Hang on, hang on -- hey Andre, Larry, come over here. I think we need to set up a bit differently..." You get a very limited number of timeouts if you want to have those discussions, or you can have them during natural breaks such as free throws, TV timeouts, and strategic mascot decapitations ("Oops, clumsy me! I thought for sure I was firing the ball to my center. Well, as long as there's a break let me chat with my small forward").

In baseball, the catcher puts down signs, the pitcher can shake them off -- if there's true uncertainty about what the signs are, the catcher can use up a trip to the mound to sort things out. Heck, in any given inning the catcher can go out one time and later in the inning the pitching coach can still come out to settle the pitcher down by fondling his ass and pointing out that "go get 'em" is an excellent strategy.

This is a baseball game, not a series of committee meetings. Only in baseball would the shortstop have the nerve to join 3 committee meetings in 10 minutes and never once bring refreshments.

* Rule Change #2: Only the base umpire rules on a check swing.

It is absurd, in my opinion, for the home plate umpire ever to judge a check swing. For him to do so is essentially an admission that he was focused partly on the bat at precisely the time he was supposed to be watching the pitch. Meanwhile, you have someone else who at the moment the pitch crosses the plate, has nothing else to do except watch for a check swing, who is in an excellent position to judge a check swing, and who -- and this is a stroke of good fortune -- happens to be one of the umpires.

Furthermore, why does there need to be an appeal? If a right-handed batter checks his swing and the 1B umpires sees it as a swing, why can't he just indicate that it's a strike? And if not, indicate "no swing." It should be his call, and only his call, and like with every other call in the world, perhaps the umpire whose call it is should just go ahead and -- gee I don't know -- make the call?

All this would save Adrian Beltre a lot of trouble. (Not that you can blame Beltre for trying to preserve any balls he can.)

* Rule "Change" #3: There is no such thing as the "neighborhood play" and no such thing as a "takeout slide."

Leave the "neighborhood play" to Mr. Rogers and leave "takeout" to Chinese food. The former is not necessary without the latter, and the latter is barbaric. Plus, neither actually exists in the spirit -- or language -- of the rules of baseball. You are supposed to get forced runners out by touching the base, not by getting near it, and you are supposed to slide in order to avoid going past the bag, not to disrupt the fielder by maiming him.

Either give the middle infielders a tape measure in order to establish "proximity" as they turn two, and give the baserunner a Bengal tiger in order to assist with the maiming process, or get rid of both conventions that don't actually exist and force both sides to play actual baseball on a DP grounder.

What do you think? And what did I miss?

Tim Lincecum: Putting The "Pot" In "Potpourri"

2009-11-07T04:17:48Z

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Tim Lincecum takes a quick puff while wondering why the on deck circle is walking towards him. If you think Lincecum's glove is levitating up to the baseball, you might be on something too.

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Several assorted items this fine day...Join me after the jump (it's to conclusions -- what a fun ride!) as we talk about many different topics, some of real substance. And I mean that quite literally.

So I wake up in the morning (for a change), pick up the Chronicle Sporting Green, and see the headline, "Lincecum cited for having pot in his car." Now I can relate to this, as I was recently cited for having a casserole dish in the back seat. I have also driven with a crockpot in the passenger's seat (we've since broken up), and also once been in the car when Henry Rodriguez was busted for trying to issue a wok to an undercover leadoff hitter.

Anyhow, it turns out Tim Lincecum was driving 74MPH in a 60MPH zone, was pulled over by a cop who, in a twist of terrible luck for Lincecum, had not lost his sense of smell and asked Lincecum if by any chance he was in possession of marijuana. To which Lincecum apparently replied, "Why yes," and turned over 3.3 grams and a pipe.

Let's count the mistakes, shall we?

1. Lincecum didn't need to drive 74MPH; he could have gone 60MPH and just changed his grip on the steering wheel to get better movement. OK that one's not so serious. We'll start over:

1. When you're carrying marijuana and a pipe, it's generally a bad idea to break other laws and bring attention to your car. 60MPH will still get you places pretty fast.

2. It's an especially bad idea to break laws while breaking laws if you happen to be a famous athlete. No one else was available to transport the dope? It had to be "the one guy who if he's caught it will probably be in the papers the next day"?

3. His hair. I'm just saying, if we're counting mistakes anyway can we throw that one in?

New Sunday Feature Coming: Sunday Funnies!

It's not ANtics; it's more Bizarro-esque. Just for fun, I thought I'd include an original single-panel cartoon with the front page post each Sunday this off-season. For years I created single-panel cartoons, which were then drawn by my most artistic 8th grade students and published in our school newspaper -- and from that came a cartoon book, "Gullible's Travels," that featured some of our favorites redrawn by a couple of our finest young cartoonists.

Generally, the cartoon will have nothing to do with the post, or even with baseball, though for Sunday's debut cartoon I have selected a baseball-themed one to get the ball rolling (so to speak). I just thought it would be a fun, Sundayish thing to look forward to (or dread). So that's the first "special feature" of several I hope/plan to unveil in effort to make the off-season go by a bit quicker.

Random Community Service Opportunity -- And You Don't Have To Do Anything!

This one has the advantage of not requiring you to do anything except entertain me. On Saturday, November 21st, the Alameda County Community Food Bank will have volunteers at 20 CVS locations in Berkeley/Oakland. Volunteers will be handing out flyers and accepting canned food donations in barrels so big even Vlad Guerrero's strike zone is smaller. My school has adopted 2 stores, one in Berkeley and one in Oakland, to handle the volunteering (which will be done by students).

I will be at the Berkeley CVS on Shattuck & Rose from 9:00am-5:00pm on November 21st, supervising students from my school as they do volunteer shifts. My job is basically to make sure that if a stranger tries to lure one of our children into his car, urge the child not to settle for an Almond Joy and to hold out for at least an Almond Roca.

The point is, I will be bored out of my mind unless some of you come keep me company. So you need to do that. Please? It's for a good cause. (Not the Food Bank, me. You folks are way too focused on the hungry.)

Has anyone seen my pants?

Final tally for the ex-A's

2009-11-06T17:00:36Z

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

At least another likable former Athletic won something, right?

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Elsewhere an A's fan and friend once spoke of the Giambi Curse, something like "No championship, either brother, ever" after both had moved on from their time in Oakland.

What happens the year after the Yankees move on from Jason Giambi? World Series win. Hey, after failing to buy one for the better part of the decade, they finally did the inevitable again. It was only a matter of time but it's nothing I'm impressed by.

Following in the cupcakey steps of Joe Blanton and future (and maybe current already) beer-leaguer Matt Stairs last year, two more former A's can lay claim to their first World Series win: Nick Swisher and, of all people, Chad Gaudin. He did pitch an inning in the ALCS! Swisher even matched Blanton's tally last year with a World Series home run. The bad news for him is he had about as much success at the plate otherwise as Blanton would be expected to. Thanks to people named Rodriguez, Jeter, Sabathia, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Rivera and so on, there's a ring he's going to get to wear.

Here's a recap of the ex-A's in the World Series, to be followed by their overall playoff totals.

New York Yankees

Nick Swisher: 2-for-15 (.133), .316 OBP, .400 SLG, .716 OPS, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 4 SO

Johnny Damon: 8-for-22 (.364), .440 OBP, .455 SLG, .895 OPS, 6 R, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 3 BB, 3 SO

Chad Gaudin: Did not pitch, did get to celebrate with the others

Philadelphia Phillies

Matt Stairs: 1-for-8 (.125), .125 OBP, .125 SLG, .250 OPS, 1 RBI, 2 SO

Joe Blanton: 0-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 7 SO

And, their final totals:

New York Yankees

Nick Swisher: 6-for-47 (.128), .255 OBP, .234 SLG, .489 OPS, 5 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 7 BB, 15 SO

Johnny Damon: 18-for-64 (.281), .333 OBP, .422 SLG, .755 OPS, 10 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB, 5 BB, 9 SO

Chad Gaudin: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO

Philadelphia Phillies

Matt Stairs: 1-for-10 (.100), .250 OBP, .100 SLG, .350 OPS, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 3 SO

Joe Blanton: 0-0, 5.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15 2/3 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 SO

(Note: There were other, better pictures I saw of Swisher celebrating but I think most of them are Getty. This is the best I can pull up on SBN)

So What Do We Do Now?

2009-11-05T14:30:58Z

What a year, huh?

My first season as a front-page writer is officially in the books, and it was an amazing- and often humbling- experience. No question, I had some very large shoes to fill. But I had two wonderful coaches in Nico and baseballgirl, for whom this has become old hat. I wish to personally thank them- and Tyler- for their patience and support this year.

On the eve of Athletic Nation's sixth birthday, I think it is safe to say that this has been the site's most trying season- and this says nothing of the team's performance on the field. I will spare you the gory details, but "meta-thread" was an all-too popular phrase around here for awhile. And just as we have become accustomed to seeing favorite ballplayers leave Oakland for greener pastures, AN lost a core group of people that had come up through the site's farm system.

But I am not here to talk about what Athletics Nation is not. Just like that little team over at 7000 Coliseum Way has done through the years, AN will rebuild and continue to reinvent itself. Maybe it's not the site you once knew and were fond of; well hell, neither are the A's, but we keep showing up. And if you feel the urge to wax nostalgic over Jennifer, do it. It's no different than getting teary-eyed over Marco. Look, I am the last guy to tell you not to talk about the past.

I don't mind looking ahead either, and I will echo Nico's sentiments about sticking around for the off-season. For many of you, this is the most wonderful time of the year, when rosterbation and speculation take over Athletics Nation.

There might be a retro piece or two from yours truly, including the conclusion of Scrapbook Memories, and the Decade in Review. If you are into that sort of thing.

And for the non-statsy, game-thread crowd, we will keep you entertained. Maybe Leopold Bloom and I will find the time to renew our DLD rivalry. (Or like Rickey working with Jemile Weeks, maybe monkeyball will come out of hiding and show us how it's done). Perhaps someone would like to take on the arduous task of bringing back the QOTM's. I know Nico has some other fun stuff planned, as do I, but why spoil the surprise?

So there will be plenty to see and do to get you through the winter. And remember, Spring Training tickets go on sale December 8...if you weren't sure what to get me for Christmas.

As for the new-look Athletics Nation, I'll leave the interior design comments for someone else. For me, it doesn't matter what the house looks like.

It's who lives there that counts.

The Yankees Win It!

2009-11-05T05:19:05Z

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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Well, the trophy comes back to the American League with the Yankees win tonight. The Bronx Bombers take home their 27th World Championship after a rather disappointing game six. Hideki Matsui drove in six runs as Pettitte outlasted Pedro in the dubious pitching duel; the final score was 7-3. There isn't much left to say about Mariano Rivera that hasn't already been said, but wow, does he still look good at 40!

So ends the baseball season of 2009. Here's to 2010!

Open Thread: World Series - Game 6 (cont)

2009-11-05T03:53:07Z

The Phillies look like they have wasted their last chance; Chase chased a ball outside to strike out with two on. The Yankees hang on to a comfortable 7-3 lead, going to the bottom of the seventh.

Open Thread: World Series - Game 6

2009-11-05T00:28:04Z

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

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Okay, I know I say this all the time, but just watch it.You know you want to.

It will be one of the last baseball games of 2009 (possibly the last game), and it has Pedro Martinez going up against Andy Pettitte. The Phillies have their backs to the wall for yet another night, looking to tie the series with a win. Yankee Stadium is commanding an average of $1,000 to attend tonight's contest. It's the highest grossing event in StubHub history.

Pedro allowed three runs in six innings in the loss last week, but he will have the advantage of five days rest. His competition will be pitching on just three.

So who will be the hero tonight? Will the Phillies take it to Game 7 or will the Yankees celebrate yet another championship; the first one in their new park? The Game starts in thirty minutes.

Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees

11/04/09 4:57 PM PST

Philadelphia Phillies	New York Yankees
Jimmy Rollins - SS	Derek Jeter - SS
Shane Victorino - CF	Johnny Damon - LF
Chase Utley - 2B	Mark Teixeira - 1B
Ryan Howard - 1B	Alex Rodriguez - 3B
Jayson Werth - RF	Hideki Matsui - DH
Raul Ibanez - DH	Jorge Posada - C
Pedro Feliz - 3B	Robinson Cano - 2B
Ben Francisco - LF	Nick Swisher - RF
Carlos Ruiz - C	Brett Gardner - CF

To Replay or Not To Replay: The Debate of the Playoffs

2009-11-03T17:54:57Z

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

22 days ago: The Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia, left, talks with third base umpire Tim McClelland about a fifth inning double tag by Angels catcher Mike Napoli against New York Yankees Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada at Game 4 of the American League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. Posada was called out and Cano remained on third as a fielder's choice. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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I know this has been done before, but I think it's worth revisiting in light of Selig's quotes, and with the great minds of AN. I am curious to see what people think.

Let's start with this:

Selig said of implementing broader usage of instant replay, "I'm not afraid of change. We've made more changes in the last 17 years than ever before. But ... baseball's a game of pace, and when you go to a game, you can't have calls being looked at, pitchers waiting on the mound for three or four minutes. It breaks the pace of the game."

And this:

"This goes on every time there's a controversial call," Selig said. "I understand the Phil Cuzzi call and others. But frankly, I'm quite satisfied with the way things are.

"We need to do a little work, clean up some things. But do I think we need more replay? No. Baseball is not the kind of game that can have interminable delays."

Aside from the obvious, as in really?????? Are you sure we're talking about the right sport what with the pitching coach visits, the manager visits, the catcher visits, the arguing on the field, and the ten thousand other delays in baseball, would it really be the end of the world to usher in some of the advances in technology to call the game correctly?

I'm not asking for replays on every play. Obviously, I don't want robots behind home plate. I'm just asking baseball to take a look at what has been done with technology in other sports in order to have an opportunity for a team to not to win or lose a game on a bad call. And I don't think that's too much to ask for.

Do you support some type of limited instant replay?

Escape To New York: Phillies Stay Alive with 8-6 Win

2009-11-03T04:37:49Z

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Have a Coke and a smile, Chase.

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Well the tease was on in the 9th, but thanks in part to a 6-4-3 double play off the bat of Derek Jeter, there will be at least one more baseball game in 2009.

Chase Utley homered twice, the second one providing insurance the Phillies ultimately needed, and Cliff Lee, even in human form, was good enough to send this Series back to New York.

Utley joins Reggie Jackson as the only men to hit five home runs in a single Series.

See you Wednesday.

How Long Before a Championship Wears Off?

2009-11-02T21:00:38Z

As the Yankees inch closer to a return to normalcy, or your whatever your cliché of choice may be, their fans salivate at the chance to stick it to Red Sox Nation once more, while celebrating the end of nearly a full decade of nothingness.

Such is life in the Big Apple, where it don't mean a thing if you ain't got that ring.

But for us less-privileged kids, what is the expiration date of a World Series win? Surely that sweep of the San Franciscans 20 seasons ago, however sweet, has lost its luster.

Bill Simmons once decided that five years was a long enough grace period, meaning five years without complaining about managerial moves, extended slumps, or tearful trades. In response to a whining Yankee fan during the 2003 World Series, Simmons penned:

So for all those ungrateful Yankee fans out there -- at least the few who can read -- put a sock in it. As one of my readers once wrote, rooting for that team is like rooting for the house in blackjack. With 26 grace periods in the bank, you should be walking around with one of those permanently dumb smiles on your face. You know how Michael Douglas looks now that he's got Catherine Zeta-Jones? That should be you. I don't want to hear another peep until the year 2053.

Not surprisingly, there were some who disagreed with the self-proclaimed Sports Guy.

Said the folks at Barstool Sports:

Since the Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, Mr. Simmons has repeatedly urged Red Sox fans to embrace a five (or ten) year grace period and not be concerned about the team’s performance in the 2005 season. In this regard, Mr. Simmons is a buffoon.

Upon the final out of the World Series, Red Sox fans enjoyed an actual grace period: It was called the off-season. Mr. Simmons apparently missed the grace period from November until April because he was too busy posing for Improper Bostonian portraits and pondering how to rehash the same Red Sox championship article for the 17,000th time and passing it off as an original work.

Or joeSportsfan who had this to say when the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals stumbled out of the gate in 2007 (Simmons- or someone posing as him- replied to the story):

It's only June…we’re supposed to give them time. But they have the same amount of wins as the freaking Washington Nationals. Put them in the AL East and they’re already over ten out and we’re talking about which players to dump.

And those Royals that were so easy to mock? They just beat the Cardinals 8-1.

The grace period has officially left the building. We’re right back to where we started.

Except now I have a DVD narrated by Billy Bob Thornton.

I'm thinking it depends on the franchise- and the fan base. Like if the Rangers ever win one, their followers might be set for another fifty years. On that note, I guess it would also depend on one's age. I sincerely hope that in the year 2049, I am not blogging about the 60th anniversary of the A's last World Series win.

What are your thoughts?

Oh, and about the big AN changes coming Tuesday, a little spoiler alert: I will still be here (well, I hope), and I will still be a man.

Big Huge Changes Coming To AN On Tuesday!!!!!!

2009-11-02T06:00:33Z

Or maybe it's minor tweaks that you'll barely notice, I'm not sure. Who has time to read these memos carefully?

Scheduled for Tuesday (though as with the cable guy, it could be anytime between 1:00pm-5:00pm and may not in fact show up on Tuesday), AN will undergo what is called a "visual refresh." Presumably it's not much.

However, I'm going to reserve judgment, having endured euphemisms too many times before -- such as my dentist saying, "This may pinch a little" (Translation: "You may hit the ceiling when I hit this nerve") and my principal explaining that the new student "Can be fidgety" (Translation: "Hide your breakables, and don't plan on getting any teaching done while he's in the room").

Not that you should rely on me for sophisticated technological information. Having mastered the On/Off button only last year, I just recently discovered that there's a function -- it's actually a single key on the typing-board thing -- that if you keep it pressed down you can type all the same letters, only they show up capitalized. I know!!!

But my understanding, such that I can have any when it comes to the technological side of life, is that while AN will look "pretty much the same, just not identical" following this visual refresh, among other purposes this is the first step in a project to speed up load time (woo hoo!).

I also wanted to let readers know that I have a series of fun and different features planned for the off-season -- I'll wait until the World Series is over to announce them next weekend -- so I hope folks won't take off directly into hibernation, as I plan for this off-season to be especially filled with new features ranging from "entertaining" to "instructive" to "well that's different!" Stay tuned...

Manuel, Lidge Get What They Deserve: FAIL

2009-11-02T04:57:45Z

Baseball never fails to astound me, and that includes some of the choices that made in an apparent effort to win. Despite Pedro Feliz' heroic efforts to keep tying the game -- first with a single to make it 2-2 off Sabathia, and then with a dramatic HR to re-tie the game 4-4 with 2 out in the 8th off Joba Chamberlain -- the Phillies seemed determined to put their worst foot forward.

From the beginning, when a game that should have, IMO, been started by Cliff Lee, went instead to Joe Blanton, ensuring that Lee will not pitch thrice in the series -- the only way I foresaw Philly pulling off an upset. Blanton pitched a lot better than the numbers suggest, as he was nickel and dimed to death in the 5th by a well-placed chopper, a seeing eye single, and a flair to right field hit so weakly it hit 3 pigeons and 2 of them didn't even notice.

But Lee should have gotten the call, and on a night when the Phillies' offense had 4 runs in them they might have prevailed behind their ace.

And then there's Brad Lidge, throwing his second best pitch, the fastball, to Alex Rodriguez in the season's most crucial moment to date. Not just a fastball, mind you, a fastball right down the middle with the count 0-1. But the location was probably just an execution mistake. Getting beaten with your second best pitch is what drives managers crazy -- assuming they're not busy messing things up from the beginning themselves.

Maybe Lidge was afraid to bounce a slider with Johnny Damon at 3B. Here's a solution: Cover 3B like you're supposed to and a steal of 2B won't end with the runner at 3B. Here's another solution: Bounce the slider if that's what can get the hitter out. It's the catcher's job to block it.

So now the Yankees are one win away from completing their purchase of a World Series title. Pathetic.

"For The Love Of God!!!" Rally Thread

2009-11-02T04:11:05Z

4-3 Spoiled Rich Kids going to the bottom of the 8th. Release the gnats! Joba's coming in...

Open Thread: World Series Game 4 - Let's Hope They Tankees at Phillies

2009-11-02T00:45:20Z

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

"Now it seems so obvious -- I could have had a V-8."

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First of all, when Joe Blanton is your #4 starter you have a very good rotation. And when your ace can pitch on 3-days rest without missing a beat, you have a very good chance of winning the World Series. Such is the stage tonight: Blanton vs. Sabathia, with the Yankees leading the series 2 games to 1, Cliff Lee lined up to pitch Game 5 tomorrow, and tonight's game every bit a "must win" for the Phillies despite the unfavorable matchup.

In 4 career starts against the Yankees, Blanton is 0-3, 8.18 ERA over 22 IP. Interestingly, in those 22 IP Blanton has only allowed 22 hits but has walked 12, which probably speaks to how Blanton pitches differently (i.e., more carefully) to lineups of the Yankees' caliber. We'll see how aggressive Blanton is in the strike zone tonight facing the likes of Teixeira, A-Rod, and The Holy One.

First pitch is scheduled for 5:20PST. Tim McCarver's and Joe Buck's world should make sense again this evening, as it will be November for fans all across the country. Could someone please fire them, kthxbye!

Cole Day In Hell -- Phillies 8-5 Loss Shows Why Manuel Is Crazy Not To...

2009-11-01T04:58:48Z

...start Cliff Lee in Game 4. Charlie Manuel has announced that Joe Blanton will pitch Game 4, rather than have Lee pitch on 3-days rest for the first time in his career, and then be set to pitch in Game 7. Game 7 is not going to be a problem the way Manuel is playing it.

Down 2-1 in the series, Manuel has two options that don't require Pedro Martinez to pitch on short rest -- which at this stage of his career makes sense not to do. He can go, as he is apparently going to, with:

Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels
Blanton
Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels

and pitch Lee only twice while trying to get to a Game 7 to throw a pitcher who entered tonight's game with a 6.75 post-season ERA and promptly gave up 5 ER in 4.1 IP. After going all of 10-11, 4.32 ERA during the regular season.

Or Manuel could go with:

Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels
Lee
Blanton
P. Martinez
Lee

You see, pitching Blanton is not the problem -- pitch him in Game 5. It's "not pitching Lee three times" that's the problem. In any game where the Yankees and Phillies take the field and Cliff Lee is not pitching, the Yankees are going to be the better team. The only chance the Phillies have in the World Series is to put the better team out there 3 times out of 7 and then try to steal one more.

The way the Phillies are playing it, they will now have to win 3 of 4 the rest of the way, and 2 of those wins will have to come in games Lee doesn't start. Good luck.

Charlie Manuel, had the Phillies won tonight maybe you could gamble because you already had one non-Lee win in the bag. You don't have that. You are now 0-2 when Lee doesn't start and it's not surprising. You have about 20 hours to come to your senses and give your team a chance to win the World Series. Because Lee on short rest may or may not get you there -- but pitching Lee only twice won't, plain and simple.

Open Thread: World Series Game 3 - Yankees at Phillies (cont.)

2009-11-01T03:02:31Z

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

"If you're gonna hang curves, heck I can do that."

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Terrible pitch selection and worse execution have sent Cole Hamels to the showers trailing 5-3 in the top of the 5th.

Open Thread: World Series Game 3 - Yankees at Phillies

2009-10-31T23:15:16Z

Happy Hallowe'en, everyone! If there was ever any doubt, there is now conclusive proof that I am a pane in the ass.

Tonight, Andy Pettitte goes up against Cole Hamels as the series shifts over to the City of ~~Brotherly Love~~ likely rain. Hopefully, they can get Game 3 in tonight without difficulty. Even if it's raining pretty hard, though, Derek Jeter should have little difficulty as he can always just walk on water. First pitch is scheduled for 4:57PDT. Enjoy daylight savings time while you can!

UPDATE, 5:15pm PDT: The game is in a rain delay with the score Cloudburst 1, National Anthem 0 in the 0th inning. The weather forecast calls for decreasing showers starting within the hour, so it appears likely they will get the game in, in its entirety, tonight, just not yet...

UPDATE, 6:00pm PDT: First pitch is estimated to be at 6:15pm PDT. It's an exciting moment because Derek Jeter will be in the batter's box, existing.