Athletics Nation

Impact Bats and The Need For Them Now

2012-02-16T17:00:07Z

The A's can find young pitching. You may have noticed this over the last dozen years. First, there was Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. They were complemented by Ted Lilly and Cory Lidle for a couple of seasons. Rich Harden showed all the talent in the world, but couldn't stay on the field. Joe Blanton came up through the minors and Dan Haren was acquired from the Cardinals. We watched Greg Smith and Dana Eveland get a chance to prove they were quality major league starters (they weren't). Then the next wave hit, featuring Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez, but also included Josh Outman, Vin Mazzaro, and Tyson Ross. Even Brandon McCarthy, who seems like he's been around forever, is only 28.

Since Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Eric Chavez arrived though, the A's have not landed a single impact bat. Their best hitters over the last decade include Josh Willingham (one season), Jack Cust (two seasons), Daric Barton (one season), Frank Thomas (one season), and Jermaine Dye (one season). The closest thing to a home grown position player "star" is Nick Swisher.

It's not for lack of trying. The A's have drafted a bunch of position players in the first few rounds. They're in free agency discussions every offseason, even when it seemingly makes little sense. Last year, they tried to sign Lance Berkman and Adrian Beltre, as some pundits/bloggers/fans were screaming against the moves. Those two guys combined for .298/.374/.554 with 63 homers, 199 RBI, and 10.4 rWAR.

As Nico noted Monday,

But what about the fact that come 2014, the A's won't be moving into their new stadium -- assuming they do move into one -- for another two years? I've never seen the goal as having to be "Start contention the year you move in." Much better to arrive a contender. First of all, attendance patterns are well known: Attendance lags a year behind the success or failure of a team. The A's want to move into a new stadium known as "that winning team that's coming!" and Cespedes gives them a better chance to do it.

Which is exactly right. I would almost view the deal for Yoenis Cespedes as a three-year, $36 million contract. Don't get me wrong, I think Cespedes will provide value in 2012. But the A's aren't paying him for those wins. In 2013, there should be enough young players at the big league level to get excited. By 2014, they should be fairly competitive; with a resolution regarding the possibility of a new ballpark, it could be a very exciting time for A's fans. Having Cespedes around also allows the A's to possibly attract free agents in the next couple years with anticipation of the new ballpark.

If you consider Cespedes a "prospect*," the A's have seven or eight of the best 100 in baseball, most of whom should be up by the end of 2013. That's a lot of talent to potentially bring to a major league team. But again, most of them are pitchers (Gray, Peacock, Parker, Cole). Even the impact position player prospects have question marks (Choice, Green, Norris). The A's needed a centerpiece for their rebuilding effort, and I think they found it in Yoenis Cespedes.

*Personally, I don't think Cuban/Japanese imports should be considered prospects or should be eligible for Rookie of the Year Awards. The guy is 26. Of course there's uncertainty as to transferring his skills to MLB, but there's little to project. He can hit, he can run, he can field, and he's shown it for years. Remember this when Yu Darvish wins Rookie of the Year in October, having spent the last half decade dominating the second baseball league on the planet. Rant ended.

Plus, we all get the added benefit of watching Coco's noodle arm in right field this season.

Oakland Athletics Fantasy Players To Watch

2012-02-15T19:54:55Z

Hilariously, the SB Nation baseball blogs were asked to write about potential fantasy players for their organization. I read the description, and laughed out loud. I mean, I'm not the most experienced fantasy baseball player out there, but are you sure you want to draft the Oakland Athletics? Somehow I can't quite see us mentioned in the big fantasy preview drafts. At all.

So I turned to Oaktown Power, who does play a considerable amount of fantasy baseball, and after he stopped laughing, he said that without a doubt, the highest drafted fantasy player on the A's would be Jemile Weeks.

However, If you want the most intriguing member of the A's on draft day, that honor will go to Yoenis Cespedes. Where will he be drafted? If you had to project him, what would that look like?

If you want the deeper sleeper who may break out, he would go with Jarrod Parker.

And that's your fantasy news. You heard it here first.

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A Graphic Look at the A's Outfield Log Jam

2012-02-14T19:00:24Z

What a crazy offseason? What became apparent after yesterday is that aside from Billy Beane stock piling young arms, also does the same for outfield options. With 8 outfielders on the roster (9 if you count Brandon Allen), what combination of this will be the most effective for the A's?

Here are the OF on the roster as of today:

- Yoennis Cespedes

- Collin Cowgill
- Josh Reddick
- Jonny Gomes
- Coco Crisp
- Jermaine Mitchell
- Michael Taylor
- Seth Smith

A quick look at this shows that 3 different combo of these OF lineups yield between 5-6 WAR. To reference the Willingham/Sweeney/DeJesus 2011 OF, that trio combined for 6.9 WAR. It appears that the CAIRO projections for everyone but Crisp and Cespedes are around 1 WAR for a full 650 PA. What this tells me is that these parts are super interchangeable. The hope is that either the platoon of Gomes/Smith is a success, or Josh Reddick will play beyond his projections.

Some extra links about Cespedes today:
A's Roster in 2014 (Hardball Talk)
Oakland A's Crowded Outfield Problem (Baseball Nation)

Check out more infographics at FUNGraphs or follow me @cobradave

A Cesped-y Rebuild?

2012-02-14T04:15:35Z

News that the A's have signed Yoenis Cespedes to a 4 year, $36M deal has Oakland fans legitimately excited. It's also another move that smacks of confidence that the team will get the go ahead to build a new stadium soon, though Lew Wolff recently acknowledged that in regards to San Jose, "soon" probably meant for the 2016 season. So how does Cespedes, a 26-year old OFer under contract through 2015, fit in with the hopes of building a new stadium to move into for the 2016 campaign?

My first thought is that the A's see their "window" of contention starting, if all goes according to plan, in 2014.

By 2014, the Rangers could be vulnerable again with Josh Hamilton likely gone, Michael Young's career likely winding down as he turns 38, and Adrian Beltre's contract starting to shift from a good one to a not-so-good one (similar to Torii Hunter's, a calculated 5-year deal that paid off early and then predictably didn't feel so good later).

Meanwhile, if the A's let Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock get their feet wet in 2012 they, along with Tom Milone, could form a "young veteran" trio in 2014 (ideally behind Brett Anderson), followed by Sonny Gray, a likely 2013 arrival, with plenty still in the pipeline for 2015 and beyond -- specifically A.J. Cole and Raul Alcantara, along with possibly Michel Ynoa. By 2014, Cespedes and Choice could be joining Weeks as an actually formidable offensive trio, something the A's haven't had since the Chavez, Tejada, Giambi years.

But what about the fact that come 2014, the A's won't be moving into their new stadium -- assuming they do move into one -- for another two years? I've never seen the goal as having to be "Start contention the year you move in." Much better to arrive a contender. First of all, attendance patterns are well known: Attendance lags a year behind the success or failure of a team. The A's want to move into a new stadium known as "that winning team that's coming!" and Cespedes gives them a better chance to do it.

Finally, the A's stated goal all along has been to increase payroll, and specifically to keep their good talent, as a by-product of getting a new stadium. If Cespedes is under contract as the A's are moving into a new stadium, and is a big part of their current success, the A's have every chance to keep him beyond 2015 because they'll know their stadium situation, and thus their increased payroll flexibility, long before Cespedes is a free agent.

For the first time in a while, the future is looking bright -- and perhaps it's only a couple years away.

Oakland A's, Yoenis Cespedes Reportedly Agree to Deal

2012-02-13T17:27:04Z

I first saw it on Twitter as a "trending topic," so I have no idea who to credit for the news, but I've seen it several places from excellent sources. The A's have agreed to a four year, $36 million dollar deal with Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.

I'm no prospect maven and I know next to nothing about Cuban baseball, but Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein rated Cespedes as the 20th best "prospect" in baseball, if you can consider a 26-year old a prospect, which would give the A's 7 guys in his Top 101.

Here's Cespy's Wikipedia page for those who want more information, and more analysis will follow in the coming days. I don't know if he has a nickname already, but I started with Cespy, and I expect significant contributions in the comments.

"Agree To Disagree," 2012 Model: Tom Milone

2012-02-13T15:00:10Z

As soon as the A's dealt Trevor Cahill, they set their sights on acquiring Tom Milone. Not because Milone will be a good pitcher, mind you, but rather because the A's always need to have at least one highly controversial figure on AN -- a polarizing player whose "true ability" no one can agree on -- and with Jack Cust already gone, and now Cahill gone, there was a void to fill. Enter Milone.

Here are some objective facts about Milone followed, after the jump, by some observations I will add to the analysis and overall conversation of "What should we expect? How good can this guy be? How good will this guy be?"

Milone was a 10th round draft pick.
Milone turns 25 on Thursday.
Milone's fastball, in his 2011 big league stint with Washington, averaged 87.8 MPH.
Milone's K/9IP rate at AAA last year was 9.4 and his K/BB ratio was 9.7.
Milone's K/9IP rate in his minor league career is 8.1 and his K/BB ratio is 5.5.
Milone's repertoire is a fastball, changeup, cutter and curve.

What does it all mean? I sure don't have all the answers, but I may have a few useful pieces to add to the puzzle.

If you're trying to figure out how Milone's minor league track record, and his repertoire, will play in the big leagues, here are some observations, and inferences, to consider:

Throughout the minor leagues, Milone gave up about a hit per inning (505 in 516.2 IP over 4 seasons, with little variation season to season). Meanwhile, he maintained high K-rates -- in fact better at each higher level. In other words, Milone appears to be better at avoiding contact than he is at getting soft contact. It's unlikely that his 88MPH fastball is responsible for this. What I infer (and I have yet to see him pitch) is that Milone's changeup, which is a big part of his arsenal, is a swing-and-miss pitch as much as it's a "get you out on the front foot" pitch. This would bode well for Milone.

In his scouting report, John Sickels notes that Milone's "delivery is deceptive," that hitters can't pick up the ball well against him. Milone may have an 88MPH fastball that hitters have difficulty picking up out of his hand until it's a few feet closer to the plate. If you had "rate x distance = time" pounded into your head in Math class, you know that the shorter amount of time a batter sees a pitch, the higher a velocity it is to the hitter (not to the radar gun). Perhaps Milone's deceptive delivery gives him closer to a 90MPH as far as the hitters are concerned. This would certainly be more consistent with Milone's component stats, and would also bode well.

Some of the questions we are left to ponder include, "Are Milone's minor league K-rates, or is his 88MPH fastball, a better predictor of how many big league hitters he will be able to strike out?" Certainly, major league hitters are far different beasties than are minor league hitters, but then again you can either miss bats or you can't.

If you put Milone's velocity, his pinpoint control, and his secondary pitches into a cauldron, you stir it, and what you get is a lot of strikeouts and very few walks, then what you have is a lot of strikeouts and very few walks. Milone won't strike out a batter/inning in the big leagues, but he might do what pitchers who strike out a batter/inning throughout the minor leagues often do: Translate their minor league success to the big leagues. The same can be said of miniscule walk rates.

Minor league hitters are simply, as a group, less disciplined and less skilled, than major league hitters. What does it take to consistently get major league hitters out? Well, an electric, high octane fastball sure doesn't hurt and this Milone doesn't have. However, also key are the abilities to throw strikes and to throw pitches where you want them, and here Milone shines. Deception -- the ability to keep hitters off-balance and to disrupt their timing -- is a big plus and Milone may shine here too.

But is it enough? Is pinpoint control, command of both sides of the plate, and "swing-and-miss" offspeed stuff enough to overcome a pedestrian fastball when you're facing major league hitters? Justin Duchscherer says "Yes" and many baseball analysts say "No".

So I decided to check Milone against a few of the natural comps that came to my mind.

One was Kirk Rueter, a (very) "poor man's Tom Glavine" who nipped away at the corners and tried to expand the outer reaches of the outside corner as far as hitters and umps would let him, but who didn't walk a lot of guys. In Rueter's major league career, he posted a shiny W/L record of 130-92 and allowed just 2.73 BB/9IP, but his 4.27 ERA, all in the NL, helps tell the story of a pitcher who was decent but not really much more. He was your basic "adequate #3 starter": Quite useful in that he threw 1918 career innings and usually gave you a chance to win, but limited in that he gave up enough runs to give you a chance to lose. However, looking at Rueter's minor league career he posted a K/9IP rate of just 6.3 and a K/BB ratio of 3.47. Advantage: Milone. (Note: Rueter spent multiple seasons at AAA, so in some, but not all of his minor league seasons, he was younger for his league than Milone was.)

How about Duchscherer, a painter who used his brush better than his colleagues made use of radar guns? Obviously, Duchscherer's big league career has been highly informed by injury and depression, and his minor league career is also all over the map as he began as an 18 year old in rookie ball and at age 25 had still not yet seen the big leagues. Spanning 8 years and 3 organizations (BOS, TEX, OAK), Duchscherer's minor league K/9IP rate was 7.97 and his K/BB ratio was 3.7. For what it's worth, Duchscherer's best K-rates came in rookie ball and his worst came at AAA.

With near identical minor league K-rates overall and strikingly similar profiles (ordinary fastball, cutter, pinpoint control and command), perhaps Milone's upside is to be a "healthier and happier Duchscherer". I don't know too many A's fans who wouldn't take that in a heartbeat.

Mark Buehrle is a little hard to analyze in that he spent just two seasons in the minors, at A (age 20) and AA (age 21), before reaching the major leagues for keeps. In the minors, Buehrle logged 217.1 IP, walking just 33 (1.4 BB/9IP) and striking out 159. This gave him a K/9IP rate of 6.6 and a K/BB ratio of 4.8.

In the big leagues, Buehrle is about to throw his 2,500th inning with a career BB/9IP rate of exactly 2.0, a K/9IP rate of 5.1 and a career record of 161-119, with a 3.83 ERA. If that's Milone's fate, color me thrilled.

One of the best comps appears to be Kevin Slowey, whose minor league career was similarly notable for his ability to fan a batter/inning while putting up insanely low BB numbers. In Slowey's minor league career, over 417 IP he struck out 399 while walking just 58, a K/9IP rate of 8.6 and a K/BB ratio of 6.9. Not only that, Slowey also gave up very few hits (just 313 in those 417 IP), so he was pretty much a minor league stud.

In the big leagues, Slowey has continued to be stingy with BBs -- just 84 BBs in 532.2 IP -- while striking out 395 (6.67 K/9IP). This gives Slowey a pretty tasty 4.7 K/BB ratio. However, what stands out in Slowey's big league career so far is that he has also allowed 84 HRs, exactly matching the number of BBs. 1.4 BB/9IP works well, 1.4 HRs/9IP not so much. Oops. Stalled by injury, discarded by the Twins and picked up this off-season by the Indians, it remains to be seen how good or bad Slowey's overall career proves to be -- but so far you're looking at a guy with a career ERA of 4.66.

As a fan whose single favorite childhood baseball player to watch was Tom Burgmeier, perhaps I'm a bit biased. I have a good feeling about Milone and his chances to translate his minor league success to the big leagues, but let's face it: The list of starting pitchers who have truly excelled without ever cracking 90MPH on the radar gun is an exclusive club indeed. Here's hoping it's about to add one more member.

Poll

Whose career will Tom Milone's ultimately look the most like?

Community Prospect List #4

2012-02-13T00:49:11Z

Community Prospect List:

#1: Jarrod Parker, RHP

#2: Michael Choice, CF

#3: AJ Cole, SP

There are about 11 or so weeks until Opening Day, so we will be doing one voting thread per week until the season starts. So get ready, set and VOTE!

The Poll Option won the vote last week, so we will be going with that from now on. Please no ballot stuffing, though ;)

Please add suggestions below for players to be added to next week's poll. If you agree with a suggestion, please comment and rec it to make it more visible.

Happy voting!

Poll

Who is the A's #4 Prospect?

2012 Prospective: A look at ZiPS projections

2012-02-12T17:19:56Z

David Fung did a good story on 1/30 about the A's projected wins for 2012 using two different projection systems: MARCEL and Clay Davenport. MARCEL is a very basic projection system that weights past seasons in a 5/4/3 fashion, finds a players' league average, and uses a age adjustment to come up with a projection about player future performance. A basic level, this is really what all projection systems do: use some combination of past performance and age to attempt to find the next year's performance. Davenport, BP's PECOTA, RotoChamp, CAIRO, ZiPS, and Bill James are other projections you might have heard of.

I'm going to focus on ZiPS here because a) its data are readily available and complete and b) because I think it is by far the most pessimistic

And here they are:

2012 A's Projections by ZiPS

What I did with that was put it into Excel and scrapped the guys who aren't on the 40 man roster. I know Dan Zymborski (the curator of the ZiPS model) errs on the side of more data, but it's really not helpful for me to see Grant Green or Stephen Parker on this list. So, they're gone.

What I'm going to try and do is try to point out where ZiPS might be too pessimistic on the A's. Let's start with the hitters:

The first thing to point out is how terrible ZiPS projects the offense as a whole. If sorted by OPS+, which is a measure of OPS (on-base + slugging) weighted to the league average (100 being average). Yes, your eyes aren't fooling you -- ZiPS does not project any one A's player to have a league average bat. What about the guys who are close, though?

Crisp is projected for 104 games. While certainly 2010 showed that Coco can be a fragile player, he also played 136 games last year while battling some nagging injuries. Barring unforeseen injury, I expect to see closer to 136 games from Coco in 2012

The same applies for Jemile Weeks, who is projected for 126 games. Again, while his MiLB history is riddled with injury, he was able to remain relatively healthy despite losing his helmet nearly every game. I expect closer to 145 games for Weeks in 2012.

These projections cannot take into account that there will likely be a winner of the 1B sweepstakes. I expect that guy to be Daric Barton over Brandon Allen, with Carter getting an occasional spot start over there. So, that's more ABs of a projected 94 OPS+ hitter over Allen (85).

Scott Sizemore's K% is projected to be somewhere around 26%. That was indeed around his K% last year, but it was also the highest of his professional career to date. This could go either way, of course, but as he gets used to the league and a new position, I would expect it to go down closer to 20% or so.

Starting pitching:

As expected, these projections are considerably more rosy than the hitters' projections.

Again, I think the weighting of prior season's data hurts the A's when the actual prospects look better. ZiPS puts Dallas Braden and Brandon McCarthy down for 21 and 16 starts respectively. Braden, most recently, has said he feels great after his surgery. McCarthy has said that with the A's, he's discovered a new bone doctor and has new techniques in his delivery to minimize the load to his reactive shoulder. Also, while Colon will be entering his age 39 season, last year he posted one of his best K/BB ratios of his career (only one better was in 2005 with the Angels). While his HR/9 ratio was a little higher than his career average of 1.11, he is also going to be starting half his games in Oakland. The more I think about it, the more I think he has one serviceable year left in his arm.

Most projection systems, including ZiPS, also produce defensive and reliever projections. The one thing that is projectable about these statistical groups is the volatility. Defense notoriously needs somewhere around 3 seasons of data to normalize. What's more, with Sizemore and Weeks both presumably improving their defensive prowess from last year, and a mixed bag of results from Barton, the projections become extremely variable. With only a couple truly established relievers on the A's, it also makes those projections extremely difficult to have any confidence in. So, I choose to ignore them.

In terms of where I think the A's will end up, I think close to 70 wins is likely. This is a little more optimistic than Dan Z., but much less so than PECOTA, which projects us closer to a .500 team.

No matter how many wins we will have though, I'm ready for real baseball. How about you?