At The Hive

Keeping Eric Gordon

2012-05-21T09:57:07Z

Hey, look who it is! It is me. Hi.

MrWayneKeller has done a phenomenal job reviewing the seasons of the various Hornets over the past several weeks; most of the team's major contributors (using that term quite loosely) are in the books now. Starting this week, let's delve more closely into who should and shouldn't be around for the 2013 season from a financial perspective. This, via Storytellers Contracts, is the Hornets' cap situation for 2012-2013.

Player	Salary
Emeka Okafor	$13,640,000
Trevor Ariza	$7,258,960
Jarrett Jack	$5,400,000
Al-Farouq Aminu	$2,947,800
Jason Smith	$2,500,000
Xavier Henry	$2,323,200
Gustavo Ayon*	$1,500,000
Greivis Vasquez	$1,191,240
Darryl Watkins*	$854,389

The asterisked players - Ayon and Watkins - don't have guaranteed deals. Including Ayon, New Orleans has $36,761,200 committed, or about $22M less than this season's salary cap. These eight players (minus Watkins) figure to be on the roster next year, unless Tom Benson decides to splash $28M (Okafor) or $15M (Ariza) on an amnesty. It's also conceivable that one of those two or Jarrett Jack has some trade value.

The remaining candidates for retention are then:

Eric Gordon
Carl Landry
Chris Kaman
Marco Belinelli
Various minimums - Lance Thomas, Chris Johnson, etc.

Eric Gordon

Based on draft strategy, long term outlook, and other factors, Landry, Kaman, and Belinelli could all depart (more on them as the week unfolds). EG's situation is obviously different.

Gordon wanted and didn't receive an extension offer close to the max contract he could get this summer from another team and didn't get it. I wrote at the time that this was along the lines of 4 years, $58M, but Larry Coon's revised summation of the new CBA leads me to believe that it's actually closer to 4 years, $55M* because of a difference in projected BRI for max contract calculation.

*A base $12.9M as opposed to $14.5M with 4.5% raises ($0.58M) each season

In either case, it was a prudent decision for New Orleans at the time and remains one. Gordon showed many signs of an adequate recovery from injury as the season finished, and the team is surely monitoring his progress over the offseason.

Gordon still has his original three options available - (1) sign New Orleans' one-year qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer, (2) sign an offer sheet from another team and see if New Orleans will match it, or (3) sign a maximum offer sheet from New Orleans.

That third won't be happening, let's hope. The Hornets must submit a qualifying offer (basic or max) to Gordon by June 30th to retain his free agent rights. Option 3 means the Hornets would be submitting a qualifying offer of 5 years, $74M, almost $20M (and a full year) more than any other team could give him in restricted free agency, which opens July 1st. There are no scenarios under which I see this unfolding. Even if Gordon informs the team that he wants to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and that he'll be signing the basic qualifying offer, the Hornets could still negotiate a larger contract with Gordon than other teams could offer, but one that's smaller than the max offer sheet.

The clear next step is submitting the basic qualifying offer to Gordon before June 30th in order to retain the right of first refusal. I haven't seen it reported, but it's possible this has already been done. Gordon's agent then goes out, collects other teams' offers (Indiana easily has the space to max Gordon, even after re-signing Roy Hibbert), and the Hornets make their decision. I'm still firmly in favor of matching an offer in the 4y/55M range.

And so Gordon's future can be split into two overarching trees - "I Really, Really Don't Want to Stay" and "Meh."

"I Really, Really Don't Want to Stay*"

*Very little of what we've heard indicates this is the reality

Option 1 - Hornets decide he's worth the 5y/74M max*, Gordon decides heh, he does want to stay after all!

*keep in mind: each team only gets one of these 5 year (as opposed to 4) maxes under the current CBA. Using it on Gordon now could preclude the team from conceivably using it on a better player from the June draft.

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 2 - Hornets decide he's not worth the full max*, Gordon signs the basic one-year QO

*the Hornets could offer a smaller max that's larger than other teams' maxes but still smaller than the true max (eg, 4y/57M) because they can offer 7.5% raises per year as opposed to 4.5%. But ultimately, the big advantage comes down to the fifth year; if the Hornets are unwilling to make Gordon their 5-year max player, the difference is minimal (4y/57M vs. 4y/55M).

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter

Option 3 - Hornets decide he's worth the 5y/74M max, Gordon still doesn't want to stay*

*again, very unlikely

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter

"Meh"

(All of these operate under the assumption that the Hornets submit the basic QO to Gordon by June 30th. If they don't, Gordon becomes unrestricted this summer).

Option 4 - Another team signs Gordon to an offer sheet*, the Hornets match

*from above - the max another team can offer is 4y/55M.

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 5 - Another team signs Gordon to an offer sheet, the Hornets don't match, the offer sheet becomes a binding contract between Gordon and the other team

Result: EG leaves NOLA long term

Option 6 - Gordon doesn't sign or isn't offered any contracts by other teams, negotiates a contract independently with the Hornets*

* from above - the max the Hornets can offer for 4 or 5 years is 4y/57M or 5y/74M

Result: EG stays in NOLA long term

Option 7 - Gordon doesn't sign or isn't offered any contracts by other teams, fails to negotiate a contract independently with the Hornets

Result: EG plays in NOLA next season, free agent thereafter, or sits out the 2013 season without playing

***************

And there we are. Options 4 and 5 are most likely, with an outside shot at Option 6. Options 1-3 and 7, based on what we know now, are highly improbable.

The marginal NBA win costs about ~$2M in the current market; over his last 63 games (2010-2012), Gordon's play has been worth about 6 wins. A healthy Gordon, even one that doesn't improve past his current state, then figures to be worth about 8 wins or $16M a year. The most realistic maximum amount New Orleans needs to pay to retain Gordon this year is the max another team can offer - 4y/55M or $13.75M. That's a good deal less than what I'd estimate his "true" value at, and so everything eventually comes down to health.

How realistic is to expect ~80 game seasons from Gordon at this point? He'd need to average about 70 games a season to make up value for a 4y/55M (13.75M/yr) contract. Is 70 realistic? On the flip side of that, does the franchise have any option but to gamble on Gordon's health as it enters a radically new phase of its history? I'm not sure.

With the lottery coming up (next week!) and prospect discussion soon commencing, this will likely be the last time we seriously discuss Gordon's future until after the draft. Not much is likely to change between now and then.

But until then - would you match any offer for Gordon?

Report: Mickey Loomis to join New Orleans Hornets front office

2012-05-20T19:29:16Z

Report: Mickey Loomis to join New Orleans Hornets front office

"Suspended New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis will have a prominent role in the front office of the city's NBA team, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reported.

Loomis, suspended eight games by the NFL for his role in the Saints' bounty scandal, will likely oversee basketball operations with the New Orleans Hornets' general manager reporting to him, the newspaper said."

Anthony Davis Foreshadowing?

2012-05-15T00:52:29Z

Anthony Davis Foreshadowing?

[From the FanShots - R]

A sign of things to come or wishful thinking?

Gustavo Ayon Season in Review

2012-05-12T09:00:10Z

It's the dawning of a new era in New Orleans basketball, and with so much attention paid to matters off the court this season, I believe it's time to evaluate how our franchise performed during its time on the court. As a result, I want to begin an evaluation of the front office, the roster and the coaching staff and see how they performed, what could happen going forward, and whether or not you approve of their job this season. Without further adieu, the next player we're going to look at is Gustavo Ayon.

#15 Gustavo Ayon, PF, New Orleans Hornets
First season in the league (first with the Hornets) out of Baloncesto Fuenlabrada in Spain (1 Year, $1.5 Million remaining on Contract; $1.5 Million Team Option for 2014)

54 Games, 24 Starts, 5.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 61.9 FT Pctg., 53.6 FG Pctg., 16.7 PER, 111 Offensive Rating, 100 Defensive Rating

Best game this season: February 22nd at Cleveland (9 Points, 17 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 2 Steals, 1 Block in 33 Minutes during 89-84 victory)

There were plenty of questions, reasonable questions, when the Hornets signed Gustavo Ayon back in December. First of all, we had no idea who Ayon was. We had no idea what his game encompassed. We had no idea he was even on the Hornets radar. And once we found out his age, we wondered what true chances of improvement existed. Just as I revealed my man crush on Vasquez a couple of days ago, my man crush on Ayon blossomed as the season went on. It became quite clear that this was a guy who played basketball the "Monty Williams way." Hailed as a steal for the Hornets by draftexpress.com and other websites, Ayon stepped in, eventually learned the playbook (while still learning English) and played with a feel for the game that was as refreshing as it was impressive considering all the blocks that stood in the way of his improvements.

Ayon took awhile to crack his way into the rotation and it was only after injuries to Jason Smith, Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor that we finally got to see extended minutes for him. And by the time February came around, Ayon impressed a considerable amount of people with his play. He showed a touch with his passes uncommon amongst big men [his assist% ranked fifth among the players at his position; and only two players ahead of him received consistent minutes (Boris Diaw and Nick Collison)]. His rebounding percentage was the third best on the team and his PER was the fourth best on the team. If you believe that Gustavo Ayon was, quite possibly, the most consistent and productive Hornet on the team this season - it may be a notion with some credence.

Of course, conditioning is a big problem with Ayon. He seemed to wear down as the season wore on and only posted two gamescores above 10 from March 5th to the end of the season. And although his age doesn't leave much room for unlimited, untapped potential, he should be in the physical prime of his career. Given all of that, I'm willing to believe that with a full training camp and with more work on learning the language (which would help a lot), we can see some fantastic improvements in Ayon's conditioning and game going into next season.

So where does that leave Ayon's spot with the team? Well, obviously, Okafor's a prime amnesty candidate while Kaman and Landry are unrestricted free agents. Ayon is under team control for the next two seasons and there's reason to believe he'll, at least, be a staple in the big man rotation during that span. With only he and Jason Smith guaranteed (to a certain extent) to be on next season's team, Ayon should have nothing to worry about outside of his own personal improvements. And if he does improve, there should plenty of "ole" chants to go around in the New Orleans Arena next season.

Poll

Are you happy with the way that Gustavo Ayon performed this season?

Eric Gordon Season in Review

2012-05-11T19:48:56Z

#10 Eric Gordon, SG, New Orleans Hornets
Fourth season in the league (first with the Hornets) out of Indiana University Bloomington (Restricted Free Agent)

9 Games, 9 Starts, 20.6 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 75.4 FT Pctg., 25.0 3PT FG Pctg., 45.0 FG Pctg., 19.2 PER, 105 Offensive Rating, 106 Defensive Rating

April 6th at San Antonio (31 Points, 4 Assists, 3 Steals, 2 Rebounds in 32 Minutes during 128-103 loss)

Eric Gordon has been an enigmatic figure since the day he was acquired by the New Orleans Hornets on that fateful December afternoon. In the wake of the Chris Paul trade being official, there was great speculation as to who or what the Hornets could reasonably command with a franchise player who had already asked to be moved. With that in mind, the idea was that most teams could low ball the Hornets offer. After two failed trades, the Hornets finally were able to move Chris Paul and received Eric Gordon back in the deal. At 23, Gordon represented great talent, great potential and a new face for a team that is looking to remove itself from the Chris Paul era as soon as possible.

There were immediately rumors as to whether or not Gordon wanted to be in New Orleans, especially considering he was going to be a Restricted Free Agent at the end of the season. He looked a little less than ecstatic when he was introduced, and given the way that Hornets fans have been mistreated since the organization debuted, it's reasonable for the most pessimistic of fans to be a little paranoid. However, it looked like an opportunity for Gordon to establish himself as a franchise player both for himself and for the Hornets franchise going into what is going to be a pivotal off season for the team.

Gordon looked great in his first game with New Orleans. Going against the Phoenix Suns, he hit the game winner for the Hornets and breathed life into a franchise in desperate need of it. However, he would bump knees with Grant Hill in that game and would not play again until January 4th. After making his home debut in that loss to the 76ers, Gordon would again go to the injured list and, following surgery on his knee, would not play again until April 4th. After Gordon did come back, however, the team responded well. They went 6-3 in games that he played this season and that includes wins over playoff teams such as the Grizzlies and Jazz (not to mention the damage done with a victory over the playoff hopeful Houston Rockets). Gordon showed an ability to create for himself that, honestly, doesn't exist for anyone outside of Jarrett Jack on this team but showed a unique ability to create for himself at the end of games; a problem that the Hornets had all season long.

There's no doubt that Gordon can play the game of basketball. His main questions will be with his durability. There's always going to be skepticism when you think about what the Hornets should pay him this off season as opposed to what they probably will pay him. He's young, he's talented, he's coachable and he's great on defense. He's the kind of player that the Hornets need. And although his knee injury may scare away some suitors, it won't scare away all and the market will dictate what it is the Hornets need to pay to keep him in New Orleans. It's just the way that it is. When Gordon plays, he's great. But does he play enough to warrant what kind of payday awaits? I imagine so but that is up to each person who wants to discuss the topic.

Poll

Are you happy with the way that Eric Gordon performed this season?

Yes

86 votes

No

53 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Jason Smith Season in Review

2012-05-08T16:28:02Z

Sorry about my absence of late. School's been a Blake Griffin this past week.

It's the dawning of a new era in New Orleans basketball, and with so much attention paid to matters off the court this season, I believe it's time to evaluate how our franchise performed during its time on the court. As a result, I want to begin an evaluation of the front office, the roster and the coaching staff and see how they performed, what could happen going forward, and whether or not you approve of their job this season. Without further adieu, the next player we're going to look at is Jason Smith.

#14 Jason Smith, PF, New Orleans Hornets
Fifth season in the league (second with the Hornets) out of Colorado State University (2 Years, $5 Million left on contract)

40 Games, 29 Starts, 9.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 70.2 FT Pctg., 52.0 FG Pctg., 16.6 PER, 107 Offensive Rating, 105 Defensive Rating

Best Game this Season: April 7th vs. Minnesota (26 Points, 10 Rebounds, 3 Steals in 36 Minutes during a 99-90 victory)

Jason Smith drew the ire of fans like me last season. I frequently complained about how soft his game was. I felt that he was too generic to really make any kind of mark in the NBA and I was always upset that he would take minutes from Aaron Gray. This is the reason why fans are not General Managers. From the beginning, Monty Williams felt like he had something in Jason Smith. I'll forgive him for being a year ahead of his time, but Smith really evolved into a really good player this season. No longer was he out there looking for a way to fit in or being afraid to make a mistake. He was simply put out there to play basketball and he played the game very well this year.

By all accounts, Smith may have been the team's most consistently productive big man this season. His size and athleticism made him a frequent option for both PF and C positions this year (although it'd probably be best if he stayed at PF). His mid range game is still top notch and he showed a frequent ability to crash around the basket for offensive boards and even became a bit of a deterrent around the rim late in the season that wasn't seen at all last year in New Orleans. It's amazing to see what a little bit of confidence can do in someone's game and Monty Williams deserves a lot of the credit for instilling that confidence in him.

Of course, anytime that you mention Jason Smith now will be associated with his shoulder check on Blake Griffin this season. Other fouls on Griffin followed but it was the first publicized foul and it got Smith a two game suspension. It's a shame that his improvements this season will always be overshadowed by that, even by fans of the team, because h really wasn't just a scrub who was sent in there to be a goon. He was a good player who got caught in a battle with an opponent. He did let his emotions get the best of him and, for that reason, he won't be known as much more than that for the next couple of years. But that, honestly, can change.

Smith's under a very team friendly contract for the Hornets. When the year started, a lot of us were scratching our heads at the 3 year contract he had been given but it's only getting him $2.5 million over the next two years and, considering that he's only 26, he still has room to grow in the NBA. And although you can say he was a stat-padder on a bad team, it's honestly a matter of someone getting more minutes and responding to those minutes.

Poll

Are you happy with the way that Jason Smith performed this season?

Yes

101 votes

No

11 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

Greivis Vasquez Season in Review

2012-05-04T17:17:02Z

#21 Greivis Vasquez, PG, New Orleans Season
Second Season in the league (first with the Hornets) out of University of Maryland, College Park (1 Year, $1.2 Million left on Contract; $2.2 Million team option for 2014)

66 Games, 26 Starts, 8.9 PPG, 5.4 APG, 2.6 RPG, 82.1 FT Pctg., 31.9 3PT FG Pctg., 43.0 FG Pctg., 14.2 PER, 101 Offensive Rating, 107 Defensive Rating

February 1st vs. Phoenix (20 Points, 12 Assists, 6 Rebounds, 1 Steal in 28 Minutes during a 120-103 loss)

Without question my favorite player on this year's team, Greivis Vasquez was acquired by the Hornets exactly two days before the season started for Quincy Pondexter so that he could come in and be the back-up to Jarrett Jack. Vasquez, a terrific college player, was a surprise first round draft pick who really struggled last year in Memphis. But he had a really impressive showing in the postseason for the Grizzlies last year against the Spurs and there was hope that he could come in and be a capable back-up with extended minutes in New Orleans. Vasquez was certainly that.

Vasquez struggled to adjust to his role early on but, after awhile, Vasquez quickly became one of the better players on this Hornets squad. He was one of only three players to play in all 66 games (with Marco Belinelli and Al-Farouq Aminu), he improved in every statistical category this season and the team performed very well when he was on the court. In fact, a lot of the Hornets' most successful lineups were with Vasquez at the point guard position. A big reason for that is that Vasquez is a natural point guard. That's no knock on Jarrett Jack, but Vasquez is a classic "pass-first" type of player who has a very good understanding of the game.

To bring some light to that actual topic,Vasquez had an assist% that ranked among the top 14 at his position. And that was with a usage rate higher than 10 of the people in front of him. He was asked to do a lot and he was productive in his time on the court. Vasquez, also, was a huge catalyst in helping Gustavo Ayon get acclimated to life in the NBA this year. He worked hard in whatever role he was given and performed well considering that his position on the time changed from game to game, it seemed, down the stretch.

It may sound like I'm hailing Vasquez as the point guard of the future but people must understand that there are real limitations with him. He's already 25 years old. He doesn't have ideal speed or lateral quickness to stay in front of guys on defense. He also turned the ball over a lot (averaging over 4 a game the last week or so of the regular season). And, honestly, he isn't a very good outside shooter. But Vasquez was a welcome addition to this squad. You just had a feel that he would run through a brick wall in order to get a victory for this team. And, honestly, who can't appreciate that? He still has work to do to be a better basketball player, but I'm fine with the point guard combination of Jarrett Jack and Greivis Vasquez moving forward.

Poll

Are you happy with the way that Greivis Vasquez performed this season?

Yes

134 votes

No

11 votes

145 votes | Poll has closed

Trevor Ariza Season in Review

2012-05-04T05:02:02Z

#1 Trevor Ariza, SF, New Orleans Hornets
Eight season in the league (second with the Hornets) out of University of California, Los Angeles (1 Year, $7.3 Million left on Contract; $7.7 Million Player Option for 2014)

41 Games, 41 Starts, 10.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.7 SPG, 77.5 FT Pctg., 33.3 3PT FG Pctg., 41.7 FG Pctg., 14.2 PER, 100 Offensive Rating, 103 Defensive Rating

Best Game this Season: February 4th at Detroit (26 Points, 7 Rebounds, 4 Assists, 3 Steals in 42 Minutes during an 89-87 loss)

Ariza has been a mixed bag in New Orleans since being acquired for Darren Collison and James Posey back in the 2010 off season. He was brought in as someone who could defend very well, knock down the occasional three point shot and who had championship experience; winning a ring with the Lakers in 2009. But after winning that championship, Ariza signed a big deal with Houston and underperformed before he was traded to New Orleans. Then, last season, he was asked to do too much offensively (for the second consecutive year) and turned in what our fearless leader Rohan considers to be one of the worst offensive seasons in the history of the league. Shooting as often as he did and putting up the poor percentages that he did, it's a fair argument. And with the subtraction of Chris Paul, there were legitimate reasons to believe Ariza would struggle more this season. However, he actually improved.

Ariza, outside of his shooting (or outside of his outside shooting), is actually a pretty darn good player. He's the perfect complimentary piece. He does everything well without excelling in any one area. Ariza even played great as a facilitator this year, finishing with the highest assist% of his career and playing a role of point forward often for the Hornets. He reads the floor very well and although he does things that make you shake your head at times, he's not afraid of big moments and the added responsibility. Also, Ariza scaled down big time on how many three point shots he attempted a game, taking an average of 2.1 a game (compared to 5.7 in 2010 and 3.6 in 2011) and his 33.3 shooting percentage was the highest in that time. An improved shot selection did wonders for Ariza's true shooting percentage; which was the highest since his time with the Lakers.

Of course, Ariza has always been known for his defense and this year was no different. He regularly draws the other team's best wing player and that probably has a lot to do with his mediocre offensive numbers. His defensive rating was the second lowest of his career and Ariza is turning 27 in June, indicating that he's just reaching his physical peak as a player. There's reason to believe the best is yet to come for Ariza as a player in this league.

Ariza was regularly recognized as the most outwardly disappointed at the results of this season. Monty mentioned that losing took the biggest toll on him and he, himself, looked defeated after each loss. It was a frustrating season for Ariza. To make matters worse, he was benched for the last three weeks of the regular season so that Monty could give Al-Farouq Aminu an expanded role in the line-up to be more fairly evaluated. Because of that, it's led to speculation that Ariza could be on the market this off season. While I won't say for certain that he won't be traded, I do believe Ariza's spot on the team is safe for the start of next season. He fills a major need in a system that really needs it. He's also, even for his young age, a veteran who knows what's required to win in this league and that can't be ignored. Ariza, all things considered, could be even better for the Hornets next season.

Poll

Are you happy with the way that Trevor Ariza performed this season?

Yes

61 votes

No

59 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed