Battle Red Blog

Wade Smith: Where Are We Going With This?

2010-03-16T19:00:27Z

The Texans' first journey into non-futures free agency came last week as they inked ex-Chiefs guard Wade Smith to a 4 year, $12 million contract with $4.25 million in guarantees. We had a nice little FanPost on the subject, but it was sort of hijacked by an argument along the lines of "Duane Brown is bad." "Nuh uh!" "Yuh huh!" and so on. So lets spend a little time talking about what Smith will bring to the team.

Kuharsky's AFC South blog on the subject linked to Scouts, Inc's take on him, so let's start with that:

Smith had been pretty much a career backup up until he started seven games in 2008. He is athletic with good short-area quickness, agility, balance and body control. His most glaring weakness is his inability to stop powerful bull rushers on the inside. He understands angles and can react to movement and adjust to counter moves. He is more of a finesse blocker than a road-grader. He gives the Chiefs solid depth in that he can back up multiple positions.

The good side of this is that he sounds like a fit for the zone blocking scheme, which is pretty much what you'd expect from a Texans OL addition. The bad side is that the "inability to stop powerful bull rushers on the inside" made me think of Chris Myers, which just made me go into convulsions. Jaohhhh...okay, okay, better.

Next, I solicited a take on the subject from our sister Chiefs SBN site, Arrowhead Pride. The general consensus among their commenters is that they liked Smith but didn't think he was worth the money that he got. Here is what I got out of Joel Thorman from AP:

Wade Smith is one of those guys that you won't miss until they're gone. He's seemed to fit a lot of the criteria the Chiefs head coach and GM are looking for in players so his release was a little confusing (until I saw the contract).

Smith was actually a backup heading into the season but because of injuries ended up seeing time at center, left tackle, left guard and quite a bit of time at right guard. He's versatile, tough and quietly does his job.

The Chiefs line was terrible so admittedly it's hard to say he's a great player but he did rise above the other Chiefs at times.

I'd like to thank Joel for that tidbit, and you can check out their other stories on Smith here. It's hard to fault the Chiefs and their fans for not wanting to overpay for an older player at a non-core position, especially given how Pioli works to cut costs and how they may be more than a few pieces away from being competitive again.

As far as the roster juggling goes, Kasey Studdard probably should be the one looking in his locker for red slips to send him down to the practice squad based on performance, but the coaches' unrequited love for him probably means Chris White is the favorite to be wandering the streets around Reliant shouting, "THEY TOOK R JERBS!"

From a statistical standpoint, White and Smith both performed about equally in their part time duty. The difference, last year, was what they were better at. Take it away, Pro Football Focus:

So this does appear, by the statistics, to be a run game fix. Of course, if you ask Football Outsiders (and who doesn't these days?) the Chiefs' offensive line was abysmal up the gut in 2009, finishing 30th in ALY on runs to the middle and 32nd on runs to right tackle. In 2008, they finished 30th in ALY on runs to the middle and 31st to right tackle. At least they were consistent. Of course, these could be due to surrounding Smith with Rudy Niswanger (a net -26 the last two years by PFF), Ryan O'Callaghan (a stunning -20.2 last year at RT), and Damian McIntosh in 2008 (-10.8 at RT in 2008), but FO refuses to speculate on individual offensive linemen. Either way, it's pretty clear that Smith was not surrounded by optimal talent on the KC offensive line.

Gary Kubiak has said that he'll compete to start at all three offensive line slots. My gut feeling is that the path of least resistance is at left guard. While the Texans aren't a completely transparent organization, if Antoine Caldwell is your presumptive starting right guard, that tells me they still have faith in Myers. And if they still have faith in Myers, that means that Studdard, Smith, White, and Mike Brisiel will compete at left guard, with two of the losers sticking around to man the bench and one of them heading to the practice squad or another team.

Bottom line: I'm not completely in love with the Smith signing, but it's essentially low-risk, medium-reward. The worst case scenario is that he ends up being line depth while the Texans suffer no injuries, essentially making him a highly paid binky that we can claim keeps tigers away and the offensive line healthy. The best case scenario for the signing is probably that he starts at left guard, revitalizes the run game, and makes Studdard a reserve. Either way, the Texans have bought themselves better interior stability at a slight markup. Were there more important issues? I suspect most fans would say cornerback is a bigger need to address. But the Texans have stuck to their guns on who was worth what in the opening week, for better or for worse.

South Oklahoma Sings!

2010-03-16T18:25:43Z

South Oklahoma Sings!

Have you've ever wondered what it would be like to get a bunch of current and former Cowboys, a couple other Dallas-area athletes, and Nolan Ryan together for a rendition of a Faith Hill song? If so, well wonder no more!

/auditorture

(h/t ~Jay)

Battle Red Radio: Gluttons for Punishment

2010-03-15T19:10:25Z

Loyal listeners! We're back and badder than ever. Tonight we embark on our second foray into internet radio where we'll discuss things like Pancakes' love of mutton and Big Bad Brad's lost Tickle-Me-Elmo doll. We might even talk a little Texans football and there's the off chance Matt joins us this week!

via iamyouasheisme.files.wordpress.com

We've moved up the time a bit to 8:30 p.m. CST so Tim can get to bed on time. Tune in and listen to the chaos!

Listen to Battle Red Radio on Blog Talk Radio

Does Anyone Like The New NFL Draft Format?

2010-03-15T15:28:27Z

In case for some reason you didn't know:

The NFL draft moves to primetime for the first time in 2010, with the first round taking place Thurs., April 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the second and third rounds on Fri., April 23 at 6 p.m. ET. Rounds 4-7 will be held Sat., April 24 at 10 a.m. ET.

So now, instead of having a glorious Saturday and Sunday you could build your entire weekend around, we get a piecemeal bastardization of the NFL Draft that requires you to be in front of your television at 6:30 p.m. CST on Thursday, 5 p.m. CST on Friday (because, you see, you should have to leave work early), and 9 a.m. on Saturday. The people that thought this concept up are likely the same people who think the NCAA Tournament should be expanded to 96 teams. Why ruin a perfectly good thing?

The answer, as usual, is money. Roger Goodell & Co. are chasing the money in a short-sighted attempt to grow the NFL brand. Yes, holding the first three rounds of the NFL Draft in primetime is certain to draw new viewers. It's also certain to alienate those of us who loved the old format. Those of us who thought the NFL Draft was perfect just the way it was. Those of us who had absolutely no desire to destroy the greatest weekend of the NFL Year.

I ask you, BRB. What do you think of the new draft format? Vote in the poll below. Is the new format going to affect how much or what you watch this year? Sound off in the Comments.

Poll

The new Thursday night/Friday night/Saturday format of the NFL Draft is:

Saturday Night Tunes

2010-03-13T23:00:22Z

Yep, it looks like we're hitting that dead zone between the end of the combine, the end of the opening free agent frenzy, and that time pre-draft rumors really start heating up. So lets all throw our music tastes around and compliment each other on our collective good tastes. Except those of you who like that one band. You know the one I'm talking about.*

I've spent most of the last couple of days hooked up to Land Of Talk's 08 album, Some Are Lakes. Which is funny because I call myself Rivers, and it tells me that some of you are lakes. It is good information to know! Do you see what I did there? Also getting recent play: The XX, M83, and Stars.

If you're drunk enough to laugh at misery instead of crying, my repeated viewings of The Falcoholic to snicker quietly to myself at the poor people who will deal with Dunta the next few years also led me to stumble on this fanpost. The NFL on Hulu? Who knew? So I strolled over there and checked out the Texans section, which only goes up through 2005. It's fun to see just how hard NFL Films tries to sell our bad teams to us, complete with signs like "Carr is God". Examples I'm paraphrasing from 2002: Chester Pitts showed his determination by not missing a single snap all year at left tackle, Matt Stevens brought his Super Bowl ring and veteran toughness to the Texans secondary.

*-Dave Matthews Band.

How Dunta Robinson Got His Groove Back

2010-03-11T21:00:28Z

Yesterday, I received an e-mail from the Zucker Media Group pointing me to several excerpts from an interview Dunta Robinson recently did on Atlanta sports talk radio. I clicked on the link, read the excerpts, and had a reaction. I then asked several of my cohorts here at BRB whether I should post the link, explaining that part of me wanted to share it, while a bigger part of me didn't want to give Dunta any more attention.

The majority seemed to think I should share the link. For the record, Kerns made an excellent point: We should focus on the Houston Texans, an organization of which Dunta Robinson is no longer a part, and thus giving Dunta additional press was unnecessary. Truth be told, I think Kerns is right.

And yet...here I am providing the link. Sometimes, I really hate how petty I can be.

Oh, and Dunta? IT WAS YOUR DECISION TO MISS OTAs AND TRAINING CAMP. NICE TO SEE THAT YOU BELIEVE THOSE "IMPORTANT THINGS" WERE THE REASON YOU "STARTED OUT KIND OF SLOW" AND DIDN'T GET YOUR "GROOVE" BACK UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE SEASON.

I really need to let this go. It's not healthy.

2009 Shadow Draft: One Year Later

2010-03-11T14:00:30Z

More photos » David J. Phillip - AP

3 months ago: Houston Texans rookie defensive end Connor Barwin, left, watches Jacorian Louis, who is hearing impaired, sign a question at Barbara Jordan High School, on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009, in Houston. Barwin shared his story of making it to the NFL despite being born almost completely deaf with hearing impaired students at the high school. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

Waaaay back in the infancy of me actually writing about the Texans instead of just watching them, I had some inspiration from one of John Sickels' pet projects: his shadow draft. Every year, he drafts along with the Minnesota Twins pick-for-pick in the MLB Draft. Seeing as how the NFL draft is both shorter and easier to scout, this seemed like a no-brainer idea for me. So I did one. And here we are a year later, with you indulging me by reviewing it and pretending I am not an idiot. Good times? Good times.

The rules:

1) No trading down. If I was running the draft board, the Texans would trade down a LOT. But considering the amount of hypotheticals you create by opening the door to fake trades, there is just way too much guesswork involved. If the Texans do happen to pull off a trade, I have to adjust my board to that.

2) I can't assume anyone we've picked will last to our next pick. It's just common sense.

3) On the other hand, I will assume that we've gathered enough draft intelligence to know who will be coming off the board by the time our next pick happens. This is so I don't get stuck with overdrafts of guys that I like that came off the board later than I would have expected.

Enough rules, times for the actual analysis

Round 1, PIck 15

Texans selected: Brian Cushing, LB, USC

Shadow draft selected: Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss

I think it might be piling on at this point to say that we collectively underestimated Brian Cushing, who was a big score for Smithiak (and Bush if you give him that credit). However, considering how weak the offensive line has been, how poorly Duane Brown continues to be in pass protection, and Cushing's lengthy injury history, this is a closer debate then you might think going forward. Oher did struggle some as a left tackle, but I can't just discount all his pass blocking stats (+4.5 at PFF) because he didn't do as well as a LT. At worst, he would've been a massive improvement on Brown. For now though, the Texans found the defensive rookie of the year and one of the best linebackers in the league at the 15th overall pick. I'd say that's a good value.

Other picks that enjoyed some instant success between 1 and 2: Alex Mack, Clay Matthews, Jr. (do you want the tackler or the pass rusher?), Jairus Byrd, Hakeem Nicks, and Vontae Davis.

EDGE: Texans.

Round 2, Pick 46

Texans selected: Connor Barwin, DE/LB, Cincinnati

Shadow draft selected: Connor Barwin, DE/LB, Cincinnati

From my DL in review post:

Barwin's progression was pretty much what you'd expect for someone who'd played just one year of defensive end in college: downright ugly in the first couple of games, but he was a solid contributor from then on, albeit one who made some mental mistakes. I don't think he's average against the run yet, but he's already the second best pass rusher of this lot. Like most of the Texans rookies, expect Barwin to benefit from a full year of OTAs and training camp.

The long-term future is somewhat more up in the air. I'm not sure the coaches will let him overtake Smith, and I'm also not sure he'll be able to stick at linebacker for more than a few gimmick sets. He looked lost the few times I saw him have to play coverage. I'm hoping he gets more snaps this year, but there isn't a clear answer to where they come as long as Smith is on the team. Perhaps to run with my Okoye idea, the Texans can run some more sets with Smith kicked inside and Barwin at his end spot.

So, was he the best pick here? For the future, the answer very well may be yes, considering the impact pass rushers have on the game today. For last year, there are a handful of picks that were probably better. MDC mancrush Sean Smith did some great things in Miami, Sebastian Vollmer blossomed in New England, the Jaguars found a powerful nose in Terrance Knighton, and 2 stellar RB's left the board in Shonn Greene and LeSean McCoy. Of those picks, I think Vollmer and Smith probably were the best ones, in that order. Barwin was always going to be a long-term project, so I'm not willing to concede anything about this pick yet, but Smith sure would look nice right now given the cornerback bind we find ourselves in.

EDGE: Same pick.

Round 3, Pick 77

Texans selected: Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama

Shadow draft selected: Rashad Johnson, FS, Alabama

Impossible to really compare these two in present value because Johnson didn't play much at all last season, although with Antrel Rolle leaving for New York, that could change this coming season. Perhaps it also says something that the Cardinals were willing to let him walk. Caldwell was probably the best interior offensive lineman the Texans had all year, which is damning with faint praise, but things probably would've looked even worse if he had washed out completely.

As far as best players to come off the board between this and the first fourth round pick, Jerraud Powers had a nice rookie season for the Colts, and Mike Wallace dodged many 60 Minutes jokes to become a solid third receiver for the Steelers much earlier than expected.. The best selection out of all of them was probably Baltimore's LaDarius Webb, who was a stud in limited time.

EDGE: Texans.

Round 4, Pick 112

Texans selected: Glover Quin, CB, New Mexico

Shadow draft selected: Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest

Not that I had much choice here, with only 10 picks between this one and the next pick, but this turned out comically bad. Quin was one of the steals of the draft, and showed exactly how good the Texans scouting department is by becoming a solid starting corner right off the bat. Chip Vaughn went straight to IR in spring and never emerged. DJ Moore, another popular draftnik sleeper, didn't play a down of football for the Bears. Probably the best non-Quin pick in the 10 was Denver safety David Bruton, who barely played but looked like he belonged when he did.

EDGE: Texans.

Round 4, Pick 122

Texans selected: Anthony Hill, TE, North Carolina State

Shadow draft selected: Andre Brown, RB, North Carolna State

Anthony Hill showed flashes in training camp and briefly in games, but ultimately was a spectator for the majority of the season. Andre Brown immediately blew out his knee after getting drafted. Right now, I think I'd take Brown going forward, especially considering the Texans need for a RB and their relative depth at tight end. For the moment, however, they added about the same amount of nothing to their respective teams last year.

Better picks would've included: the wide receiver trio of Austin Collie (I guess, if you think he isn't a system guy), Johnny Knox, and Louis Murphy. Nobody else really stands out between here and the fifth round, although Jasper Brinkley held up pretty well for someone who was tossed into the fire.

EDGE: Push

Round 5, Pick 152

Texans selected: James Casey, TE, Rice

Shadow draft selected: James Casey, TE, Rice

Double dipping again:

Casey fits the Owen Daniels mold, although he's a bit more versatile. He's much better catching balls than he is blocking; in fact, I'm a bit puzzled as to why exactly he had such a rough time getting on the field in passing downs after Daniels went down. Casey's season in a microcosm came in a Week 15 play against the Rams. The Texans ran a play-action pass, Schaub came out on the bootleg, Andre Johnson was double or triple covered deep, Vonta Leach was one-on-one in the flat, and Casey was wide open about 10 yards downfield. Schaub throws to Leach, who catches it and goes nowhere, and Casey looks around after the play trying to figure out who was covering him, only to find no one near him.

You have to think Casey's role will grow next season, right? But I really can't see it happening. It's not that he's not talented, but he doesn't bring anything to the field right now that the Texans don't already have. If he's going to be split off the line, the Texans have better receivers and he's not as good as Daniels. If he's going to be on the line, he can't block, and Daniels is again better. If I were him, I'd spend the whole summer learning to block and show I can do that better than anyone else on the team during training camp, because right now, that is his ticket onto the field. Well, that or Daniels holding out or getting hurt again.

Were there better picks? Macho Harris would look nice in retrospect, given the Texans' newfound CB hole. Jamon Meredith played well in limited action for the Bills. The Jacksonville Zach Miller also played a credible tight end, and was much more involved than Casey was over the course of the season. Thomas Morstead provided the Saints with reliable punting. I'd say there were a few better players out there, but again, not many.

EDGE: Same pick.

Round 6, Pick 188

Texans selected: Brice McCain, CB, Utah

Shadow draft selected: AQ Shipley, C, Penn State

McCain was a fairly okay dime back for most of the season after turning heads in training camp, another great find by Smithiak in the sixth round. AQ Shipley hit the Steelers practice squad, was waived, and then was signed up by the Eagles practice squad. I still have a good feeling about him, but it sure didn't happen this year.

The Texans might have been better off selecting Devin McCourty's brother, Jason, who slipped into enemy hands and plays in Tennessee. Myron Pryor didn't look overmatched in his small sample sizes as a Patriots defensive tackle. Bernard Scott and James Davis were a pair of solid committee RBs while healthy.

EDGE: Texans

Round 7, Pick 223

Texans selected: Troy Nolan, S, Arizona State

Shadow draft selected: Chris Baker, DT, Hampton

Finally I can claim semi-victory! Chris Baker went undrafted but spent almost all year on the Denver active roster. Nolan got hurt in training camp and spent the year on IR.

Julian Edelman would've been a better pick than either of them, as would LaRod Stevens-Howling and Rashad Jennings, who I only passed up on because I'd already picked a RB.

EDGE: Push

Welp, the Texans have cleaned my clock after year one. I guess that's the difference between being a professional organization that has tons of tape and a college student who mainly gets draft information on the internet. It'll be interesting to see how these guys continue to develop going forward, and who else emerges from the late round shuffle with a little time to grow. Anyone I missed? Thoughts? Regrets going forward with Barwin over Smith, MDC?

McClain_on_NFL: Texans reached a contract agreement with KC G/C Wade Smith.

2010-03-10T23:28:48Z

McClain_on_NFL: Texans reached a contract agreement with KC G/C Wade Smith.

We didn't snag Smith the first time, but we eventually got him.

Wade only played 476 snaps in 2009, but he managed to rank 23rd at PFF at G. To put it in perspective, our top ranked guy at G was Chris White at 41st.

And, yes, I still want Rob Sims.

How I Spent My Offseason, By Gary Kubiak

2010-03-10T17:47:23Z

The fog rolls in with the bitter air from the North Sea. I can barely see three feet in front of me. I ram my hands into the pockets of my trench coat and pull it tighter. It's useless, though. The cold comes in from everywhere. I grind my teeth and wait. The London fog is so thick it makes the street lamp above my head look like a dying candle. Every once in a while, a car drives by. The headlights pass over me and I try to look casual. The drivers are faceless, almost ghouls.

"Gary."

Suddenly, a hand taps me on the shoulder. I try not to jump. He has an amazing knack for seeming to appear out of nowhere

"Hi Bill."

"How are things with Rhonda?"

"They're... fine."

Bastard. He knows about her and Johnson. And Brown. Both Browns. They all know. At least Bill has the balls to come out and say it, unlike Fisher, that smug son of a bitch.

I reach into my coat pocket and pull out a flask. Scotch whiskey. Islay Malt, aged 18 years. It burns on the way down, a glowing coal in my stomach.

"Want a sip?"

Bill looks at me. He doesn't say anything for what seems an eternity. The warmth of the scotch in my stomach drains away. I suddenly realize he's wearing glasses. Underneath them, below the dark shadow cast by his fedora, his eyes narrow to slits. I think he's going to fall asleep at first. The awkward silence makes me want to reach for the flask again, but I can't bring myself to do it.

Bill takes his glasses off and carefully wipes them off on the inside of his tie.

"I didn't know you wore glasses."

"Ran out of contact lens solution."

"Makes sense. Why did you make me fly all the way out to London for this?"

"Tradecraft. No one will recognize us here. Plus, I wanted to see Mama Mia! in the theater, just to see how it compares to the movie version, without Fisher finding out about it and calling me a homo."

"Pierce Brosnan can't sing for shit."

"Sure can't."

Another endless pause. I'm beginning to wonder if he's narcoleptic or something. A car drives by.

"Bill, I..."

"I know. I couldn't imagine how Rhonda could manage to still walk after what she let Diles do to her with that eggbeater either."

"What the?!?"

"Never mind. You've come here for the video, I presume?"

"Uhm, yes."

Eggbeater? Diles?

Bill reaches into the pocket of his trench coat. I notice that he's wearing a hoody with the Ravens logo underneath. He pulls out a small compact disc. He notices me looking at his hoody and quickly pulls his trenchcoat tight around him.

"I lost a bet. My compensation?"

"Wired to your Cayman Islands account, as you asked. You're sure this is real, right? Not some poor-quality photoshop."

"It's the real thing."

"Really?"

A long pause. For a moment I think I hear him snoring.

"I mean, does this really have Peyton on it?"

"Yes."

"How can you tell he's the one wearing the gorilla mask?"

"He takes it off midway through the film. We can't identify the one with the Tony the Tiger outfit, though. The mask distorts the voice so much that we can't make it out."

"How did you get this?"

Across the street a couple of drunks stumble home, arguing loudly. Something about Wayne being so crap that his best friend shagged his girl. I shudder. Bill doesn't answer. He just looks at me.

I look down at the disc. The dim light of the street lamp reflects off of it onto my face. God, I look terrible. I'm getting too old for this.

"Hey, Bill, what do you say we go get a drink somewhere..."

He's gone. He disappeared as quietly as he appeared. I have no idea how he does that. It totally weirds me out.

"Bill?" The fog absorbs my words. There's no one out there.

I put the CD in an inner pocket of my coat. For the first time in months, I feel good about things. We will sweep the Colts this year. We will make the playoffs.

But what the hell was Diles doing to Rhonda with an eggbeater?

What Would You Be Willing To Give To Get Nnamdi Asomugha in a Texans Uniform?

2010-03-10T14:02:09Z

Asomugha is an incredible talent, but is anyone worth what Al Davis is asking for him in a trade?

View full size photo »

For about two hours yesterday, while at the office, I listened to Sports Radio 610 as Rich Lord and Robert Henslee took calls from people on what they would be willing to give to have the Oakland Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha on your Houston Texans.

Long story short, if you've listened to local talk radio, you know what kind of idiot callers call in there. There were people willing to give up their entire draft for the guy. There was even one guy who said to forget Nnamdi and get Brandon Marshall AND Anquan Boldin (I guess he missed the memo on Boldin) to pair with Andre Johnson. Yeah, I think that guy has been playing too much fantasy football. But back to Nnamdi. It got me to thinking what he would be worth.

Before I get too far into this, we all know Houston isn't going to go after Nnamdi and his insane contract. But, in a hypothetical sense, say Bob McNair got a wild hair up his ass to make a huge splash and wanted to go get Nnamdi. What would you give up?

First, we have to look at the contract that we would be inheriting. Asomugha was given a three year, $45.3 million contract by Oakland in 2009. The richest ever for a defensive back. The first two years, worth $28.5 million, are fully guaranteed. In the third year of the contract, it must pay him the average of the top five highest-paid quarterbacks or $16.875 million, whichever is higher. If the team fails to pick up the option, Asomugha will become a free agent and the team will not have the ability to tag him again. Wow...Al Davis at his finest right there...

So, on top of paying the guy around around $32 million for two seasons, Al is rumored to be asking for "high" draft considerations as well.

Look, Naamdi is one of, if not the, best cover corner(s) in the game. We all remember him shutting down Andre Johnson in 2008. But is he really worth that much money AND probably a variation of first and second round draft picks? Only way I would even consider it is if Asomugha would be willing to void the old contract and work out a long term deal anew. And I see no reason why he would be willing to do that. Maybe just the chance to get out of the misery that is the Oakland football franchise. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Asomugha would solve a big, big problem in the Houston secondary. There's no question there. But when you got DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels and Mario WIlliams needing to get locked up in the next couple years, I believe that money is better well spent internally. What say you, BRB Nation? Would you make a deal for Nnamdi? And at what cost?

Jacoby Jones Is On Twitter, And He Does Not Disappoint

2010-03-10T03:11:37Z

Jacoby Jones Is On Twitter, And He Does Not Disappoint

Note to self: Season twenty-ten "gone be wiled." I need to "beledat."

20 O'Clock Stock Watch: T-Minus 6 Weeks To The NFL Draft

2010-03-09T20:00:28Z

More photos » Michael Conroy - AP

Florida's Joe Haden runs the 40-yard dash poorly at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis. Clearly, he should not be picked until the 5th round. Tuesday, March 2, 2010. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

"Sure, we could throw up a mock draft."

*commenters start a fervent Suh-McCoy-Bradford argument*

"Wait, stop, my friends! We could throw up a mock draft. But that would be silly and needlessly all-encompassing! Besides, the hell if I know which speedy physical freak Al Davis is taking this year."

*commenters look confused, but are glad this isn't a musical number*

So instead of a mock draft, I'm creating a stock watch for our first round pick, which thanks to losing a coin flip with Atlanta (still worth it since they took Dunta Robinson in the deal!) is #20 overall. I'll divide the players into three categories: guys who could fall to us, guys who are being mentioned right around #20, and guys you'd probably trade down for for if you were maximizing value who will probably not be around for the Texans' second round pick at #50. I tried to the best of my knowledge to put guys in the right areas on this board, but you may feel otherwise. So keep in mind, these are also just one man's opinion.

I'll focus on the perceived need areas: RB, OL, DT, Weakside LB, and DB, with a few exceptions for sliding players. These players will be divided into their classes, and then ranked in order by my desire for them to become Houston Texans. In the interest of time, I'm going to assume that everyone knows that Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Eric Berry, and Russell Okung are the four best players at these need spots and that there is not a chance in hell of them donning a Texans uniform next season short of a blockbuster trade or catastrophic injury. Deal? Deal.

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERES A CHANCE?

1) Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

After spending most of the draft process as a possible late first round pick, Williams has caught the draft expert helium and is being widely speculated to go to Miami at #12. I think we've had about 300-400 total comments spilled on the nose tackle position just in the past month, so this ranking for Williams will tell you which side of that debate I am on. He's got enough pass rush skill to keep people honest and not be a two-down player. Is he the safest pick in the draft? Probably not. In fact, KC Joyner approved him only on the basis that the coaching staff drafting him would keep on him. But the chance of having a great nose tackle is the kind of gamble I will gladly take.

2) Joe Haden, CB, Florida (CBS) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

On the other side of draft stock trading, Haden is down 3 3/4s after a sub-par showing in the 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine, which will clearly hurt him in the NFL when he takes off all of his pads pre-snap and then sprints 40 yards into the backfield. I'm still really doubting that he slides as far as some think he will, but if he's there at 20 he'd be really hard to pass up. There could be room for further refinement here given that he's only played cornerback for three years, he's one of the youngest guys on the board, and he started from day one at a major program. After missing out on Leigh Bodden, I would fully understand if the Texans drafted him over Williams.

3) Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State (CBS) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

A mutant offense of Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton in the backfield, and Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, and Dez Bryant lined up wide with Owen Daniels freelancing in the middle. Fun to think about, no? Yeah, well, wake up. Kevin Walter is back and this probably wasn't going to happen anyway. You can't stop me from dreaming about it though.

4) CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

Spiller just reminds me a little bit too much of Reggie Bush to get excited about him possibly falling into our laps. Perhaps that's just bias based on the track star/hybrid RB/WR profile and not really a fair slam at all. I wouldn't be mad if the Texans wound up with him in the first round, but I also don't think he's much different than Dexter McCluster, who probably could be had lower. I would trust the Texans if they made the pick, because I'm sure they'd have to see something incredibly special in Spiller to take him, but personally I don't think he's going to be a special back, and you don't take backs that aren't special in the first round.

5) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa (CBS) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

I think there are a lot more holes in Bulaga's game than any of these other four players at the collegiate level. His perceived short arms may cause his stock to fall, and he also has a rather questionable history of injuries and maladies. That said, a 21-year-old junior with his pedigree and a chance to push Duane Brown inside? Yes please.

THE SWEET SPOT

1) Anthony Davis, LT, Rutgers (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 20)

Davis is not the most well-polished or exciting pick in the draft, but I think he's a bonafide left tackle, which is more than I can say for Mike Iupati. He's got the size, strength, and feet needed to excel at pass blocking, as well as a monstrous frame. Give him an open competition with Duane Brown with the loser moving inside to left guard, and I think you'd see some offensive line improvement. I also think Davis would win the competition.

2) Earl Thomas, S, Texas (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

I've come around a lot on this pick. I have no regrets about placing Williams over him in all the war room arguing that we did (and I would prefer we trade down and get Terrence Cody instead of drafting him still, for the same reasons I listed under Williams), but if we stay at this spot, I think Thomas is the best fit of value and need. I'd much prefer him to the corners left on the board, I think he's a perfect complement to Bernard Pollard and would be extremely helpful in our matchups with Peyton Manning.

3) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (One Bronco Nation Under God) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

Wilson drew compliments for his physical abilities at the Senior Bowl, but I don't think he's got the height to match up with true #1 wideouts. He also has the gambler tag, which I'm not thrilled about. I've used this comparison before, but he reminds me a lot of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who came in and needed a few years to really get a hang of the position before his numbers started catching up with his reputation. Combine this with his perceived struggles in zone coverage and I'd rather trade down and nab Devin McCourty. Wilson will have to settle for winning the coveted "most parentheses next to a players name in this article" award.

4) Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

Here is how the Texans replace Dunta Robinson's "swagger": by getting a loudmouthed weakside linebacker with a penchant for calling out peoples mommas.

Everything about Weatherspoon makes me think he is a better pick for the Texans than Wilson. My main concern is that Frank Bush abandoned the 4-3 under to play nickel against the Colts, and it's hard to imagine the Texans spending a first round pick on a player who won't see the field against the best competition they have on the schedule twice a year.

5) Mike Iupati, G, Idaho (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

He may be the best guard to come out in the past X years, since Steve Hutchinson or whoever you want to compare him to. But in the end, I don't think he can play tackle, so you're giving up a LOT of value for a guard. It's a big time need for a big time franchise, but in the end he's still just a guard. Rob Sims could be had for a 4th round pick, Wade Smith was in town recently and probably wouldn't cost much. It's just not such a hard task to find a better guard than Kasey Studdard that it merits using a first round pick on one.

6) Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

Here's John McClain's boy. Or the people John McClain talks to's boy. Whichever. I actually do like him a lot as a pure runner, but I think I'm higher on Arian Foster than most and don't think the Texans need a running back bad enough to take one in the first round unless there's a chance he is a superlative talent. Thus, he slips to the bottom of the chart here.

TRADE DOWN, YOUNG MAN?

1) Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

I've heard the criticisms: takes plays off, solely a 3-4 nose, weight ballooning out of control. Look at this another way: This is one of the very few human beings on the planet capable of playing football at the weight he is at. A complete and utter physical freak who is going to demand 2 blockers every snap. Is he going to get much of a pass rush? Maybe not, but he's going to change the way teams deal with the good pass rushers we already have. I'll take the heat if I'm wrong on this, but I'd rather have him than anyone I've listed so far aside from Williams and Haden. I wouldn't even be opposed to taking him straight up at #20.

2) Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

Of all the non-Haden corners, I think McCourty is the best fit for the Texans scheme and the one with the most overall value. He might be the best zone corner in the first two rounds, he's a terrific kick returner, gunner, and designated kick blocker. He doesn't do as well in man-to-man, nor does it seem like he has a lot of upside, but I think he's got the best chance of contributing right away out of any of the 2-3 blob of corners.

3) Taylor Mays, S, USC (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

Another training lab specimen, despite the combine's best efforts to prove MDC's bet on his 40 time wrong. The question is: Is Mays a safety? I think he is, and I think the concerns of his coverage are a little overstated. It doesn't help that he's listed behind two safeties who dropped down and played corner at times last season. Are his instincts lacking? I think that's a fair criticism. However, if he has the skill to come down and essentially be a third linebacker, I think that adds a lot to the Texans' defensive versatility. I can't put him above Thomas since he's a lot like Pollard, but I would be happy with him if the Texans brass thinks he can cover well enough to be a safety.

4) Brian Price, DT, UCLA (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

This one has grown on me as well. Provided the Texans can't get a nose tackle, the next best thing might be adding someone who can replace Shaun Cody and Jeff Zgonina, two veterans who do admirable work but who no one outside of Bryan (bless his now commentless soul) thinks are an answer to anything up front. Price could bulk up enough to play the 4-3 nose, has some extremely gaudy tackle numbers, and is one of the youngest DT's in the draft. KC Joyner raves about him and gives him a seal of approval, while John Morgan over at Field Gulls does not. Which side are you on?

5) Charles Brown, T, USC (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 23)

A converted tight-end, so you know he's got the agility and lateral quickness required by the zone blocking scheme. Where Davis would be a high upside LT, Brown would be someone who fits what the Texans do a little better. I just get Duane Brown vibes about this guy, with the converted tight-end similarity. I also don't like that he sat behind someone for two of his four seasons, even if that someone did turn out to be as good as Sam Baker. On the plus side, he probably will be a better pass protector than (Duane) Brown.

6) Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

Washington's best skill is his open-field tackling. The Texans' WLB is called on to make many open-field tackles. Zach Diles isn't nearly so good at this. Thus, he'd be an obvious upgrade. My concerns are that it took him some time to break into the starting lineup at TCU and that he wouldn't be on the field against the Colts unless Bush abandoned the nickel.

7) Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

I like Jackson. Anyone who starts most of the year as a true freshman at Alabama can't be that bad. I just don't think he matches up with the Texans scheme anywhere near as well as McCourty, nor does he offer the same sort of special teams versatility. He's much more physical than McCourty and played much more man-to-man in college, which leads me to believe he'd need some adjustment time to be completely happy with our zones.

8) Maurkice Pouncey, G/C, Florida (CBS) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

Certainly as premium a center prospect as you can find, and someone who would push Chris Myers out of the starting lineup is a happy (if unlikely) fantasy. Like Iupati, I don't doubt the talent or the need, I just think this isn't a position you should be spending first round picks on unless you've got a stacked team at all the important areas. The Texans aren't there yet.

9) Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

Before his sub-par time running the 40 at the combine, I was convinced that McCluster was going to be gone before the Texans second pick. Now, that's up in the air a bit, but I'll include him here anyway because I still think there's a good chance he'll be gone before that. Very shifty, a plus receiver to the point that he could shift out of the backfield on a regular basis, and the only knock against him is size. Plus, he was extremely productive in the SEC, a place that tends to produce good NFL running backs. I like him a lot, and I think his skills in the pass game are better than Slaton's, which means he adds a facet that the other backs that are oft-mentioned to us do not.

10) Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State (CBS) (Draft Countdown) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 22)

Odrick brings versatility, but I'm not anywhere near as high on him as I am on the other guys in this class. Between the so-so production and lack of bulk, I think the Texans can do better with the other defensive linemen around the late first-early second.

11) Jahvid Best, RB, California (CBS) (Mocking The Draft) (Age at start of 2010 season: 21)

I'm no injury expert, but when a guy misses more than half of a season with concussions, that's an enormous red flag to me. He might be the most talented back in the draft, but his health is too much of a concern for me to pick him before the second round starts. I'll let someone else take that chance.

Your thoughts, BRB? Who have I missed?

A Quick Review of What We Know About Peyton Manning

2010-03-09T16:30:13Z

[Author's note: We didn't do a whole lot of Super Bowl or post-Super Bowl coverage here. This is to be expected, I suppose, as the Texans were not involved in the game. No, it's true! You can look it up! What follows is a post that I started soon after that game, but did not finish until recently. So, yeah, timing-wise, if it seems a little odd, that's why.]

I've never been accused of being impartial and unbiased when it comes to The Fivehead, neé Peyton Manning. I loathe him, and I've done so since January 2, 1998, the day the Manning-led Vols -- a team that would win the national title the following season when led by the redoubtable Tee Martin -- rolled over easier than a co-ed with daddy issues in front of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. This, coupled with Scott Frost crying like a blogger who got spurned by a more popular writer in the Super Bowl media center, got Tom Osborne half of a national championship as a parting gift and, by extension, boned Michigan. ¹

ANYWAY...I mention all of this as sort of an up-front full disclosure. What follows could be construed as a hatchet job or an attempt to kick a fanbase while they are down. (Avoiding the appearance of piling on is also why I waited a while to post this.) While I'm not above such shenanigans, that's not the point here. Instead, the point is to draw attention back to a single premise that (incorrectly, in my opinion) fell by the wayside of conventional wisdom after the Colts won a Super Bowl:

Peyton Manning was and remains to this day a mediocre playoff QB.²

Manning's 9-9 playoff record is well-documented at this point, but nevertheless let's start big picture.

Joe Montana: 16-7 (11 appearances, 4 titles)
Tom Brady: 14-4 (7, 3)
Terry Bradshaw: 14-5 (9, 4)
John Elway: 14-8 (10, 2)
Brett Favre: 13-11 (12, 1)
Troy Aikman 11-4 (8, 3)
Roger Staubach: 11-6 (9, 2)
Bart Starr: 9-1 (6, 5 (incl. pre-Super Bowl titles))
Kurt Warner: 9-4 (5, 1)
Donovan McNabb: 9-6 (6, 0)
Jim Kelly: 9-8 (8, 0)
Peyton Manning: 9-9 (10, 1)
Ben Roethlisberger: 8-2 (4, 2)
Jim Plunkett: 8-2 (4, 2)
Steve Young: 8-6 (11 (7 as starter), 2 (1 as starter))
Dan Marino 8-10 (10, 0)
Ken Stabler: 7-5 (7 (6 as starter), 1)
Phil Simms: 6-4 (5, 1)
Bob Griese: 6-5 (7, 2)
Fran Tarkenton: 6-5 (5, 0)
Craig Morton: 5-5 (7 (5 as starter), 0)
Danny White: 5-5 (8 (5 as starter), 1 (0 as starter))
Mark Brunell: 5-5 (7 (5 as starter), 1 (0 as starter))
Steve McNair: 5-5 (5, 0)
Warren Moon: 3-7 (7, 0)

Obviously, this is a list of QBs with a minimum of 10 playoff decisions as a starter in order of wins and, where there's a tie in wins, winning percentage. While not the most dispositive metric we could use, I think it is a nice rough sketch of the discussion. Manning's .500 record, were we to sort by winning percentage alone, puts him in the Morton/White/Brunell/McNair group, just ahead of Dan Marino and Warren Moon. On a list with this broad of a spectrum of QB talent, as Marino/Moon illustrate, falling in with that group isn't fatal to your legacy, but it's definitely a knock against your all-time greatness. I mean, every Marino conversation generally ends with one person saying something to the effect of "statistically, he's great, but...." Now, granting that Manning has a ring, while Marino and Moon do not (the kids call that "foreshadowing"), I still don't think it's a stretch to say that Manning has been less than stellar in terms of wins and losses in the playoffs.

"But wait," you might be saying. "The losses weren't all Manning's fault! That's not a fair comparison!" Ok...let's look at Manning's lines in each of his playoff losses.

1999--Loses 16-19 to Tennessee (divisional round). 19-42, 227 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 TD rush. Indy won the AFC East at 13-3, with the best offense in the AFC, and they had a first-round bye. Indy led the Titans 9-6 at halftime, then mustered a whopping six yards in the third quarter. Tennessee never trailed after Eddie George ripped off a 68-yard TD early in the third.

2000--Loses 17-23 (OT) to Miami (wild card round). 17-32, 194 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Indy was the #6 seed at 10-6. Miami had turnovers (all INTs) on three straight drives in the first half, and Indy led 14-0 at the half. In the second half, Jay Fielder improved on his 5-14, 42 yards, first half, completing 14 of 20 for 143 and adding another 43 rushing. In overtime, Miami won the toss but was forced to punt on their first possession. On their first OT possession, Indy faced a 3rd and 12 wherein Manning completed an 11-yard pass to Marvin Harrison, but Vanderjagt (possibly drunk) missed the 49-yarder and Miami scored on its next drive.

2002--Loses 41-0 to New York (wild card round). 14-31, 137 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT. Indy missed the playoffs after the 2001 season, but returned as the #5 seed after the 2002 season. On the fifth play of the game, the Jets scored on a 56-yard screen pass to FB Richie Anderson (!), and they never looked back. Indy trailed 24-0 at the half. Manning saved both of his INTs for the fourth quarter, throwing one on the third snap of the period and again on the Colts' next possession.

2003--Loses 24-14 to New England (AFC champ game). 23-47, 237 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. The #3 seed after winning the AFC South, Indy destroyed Denver (Manning had a perfect QB rating that game) and beat Kansas City to get to the AFC title game, where, to be perfectly blunt, Manning imploded. New England scored a TD on the opening drive; Manning responded with an INT. New England scored a FG on their second possession; Manning responded with an INT on the very first Colts' play of that possession. At the close of the first half, Indy trailed 0-15. After Indy scored a rushing TD on their first second-half possession, New England answered with a FG to make it 18-7. Indy went three-and-out (two incompletions). New England added another FG, making it 21-7. Manning responded with his third INT. Walt Harris picked off Tom Brady at the goalline early in the fourth, giving Indy a second life. Manning responded with his fourth INT. Manning threw his only TD midway through the fourth, bringing the game to 14-21. Indy tried an onside kick and failed, but held New England and forced them to punt, meaning Indy had one more shot. Manning threw four straight incompletions. New England added a FG, extending their lead to 10. Manning threw three straight incompletions, then completed a seven-yard pass on fourth-and-ten. Ballgame.

2004--Loses 20-3 to New England (divisional round). 27-42, 238 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Again the #3 seed, Indy again destroyed Denver in the first round, leading to a second-round matchup with New England. The game was a puntfest in the first quarter, with New England breaking through first on a FG in the early second quarter. The Pats added another FG before Manning led the Colts into FG range as the first half expired, with Indy going into the lockerroom down 3-6. The teams traded punts on their first second-half possessions, then Tom Brady found David Givens for a TD to increase New England's lead to 10. Tedy Bruschi added another TD shortly thereafter, and Rodney Harrison sealed the win by picking off Manning with 12 seconds remaining.

2005--Loses 21-18 to Pittsburgh (divisional round). 22-38, 290 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. This game is most memorable because of Large Benjamin's fluke tackle of Nick Harper following Harper's recovery of a Bettis goalline fumble. Coming into this game off a first-round bye as the AFC's #1 seed, Manning did not play poorly, though he struggled to find a rhythm in the first half as Pittsburgh rolled out to a 14-3 lead and continued that struggle into the third. It wasn't until Pitt was up 21-3 that Manning locked in, hitting Clark for a 50-yard TD and leading a solid drive on Indy's subsequent possession that resulted in a James TD run. (Worth noting, however, is that Indy forced Pitt to punt with the score 18-21, only to see Manning go 2-yard pass, sack, incomplete, sack for a turnover on downs. But I digress.)

2007--Loses 28-24 to San Diego (divisional round). 33-48, 402 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. The Colts came into the playoffs with a first-round bye as the #2 seed in the AFC. They led 10-7 at halftime, though a Manning INT with 25 seconds (a) killed what could have been a bigger lead and (b) would have resulted in a 14-10 San Diego lead at the half if Cromartie's pick-6 wasn't nullified by a stupid hold on Eric Weddle. San Diego came out and scored a TD on their first possession of the second half, which Manning answered by throwing his second INT. No damage was caused (relatively speaking) by this pick, as SD went three-and-out. With just over 3 minutes left in the third quarter, Manning hit Wayne for a TD, only to see SD match it before the quarter expired. Manning's fourth-quarter possessions went thusly: 2-3 (6 yds), punt; TD; 4-9 (43 yds, but 5 straight incompletes), turnover-on-downs; 1-4 (5 yds), turnover on downs. Ballgame.

2008--Loses 23-17 (OT) to San Diego (wild card round). 25-42, 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Indy, as a wild card, slotted into the #5 seed. Indy trailed 14-10 at halftime, but the only scoring in the third quarter was a 72-yard Manning-to-Wayne TD, giving Indy a 17-14 lead going into the fourth. (That quarter also featured an incomplete pass on 4th-and-1 on Indy's first possession.) San Diego tied the game with 30 seconds remaining, and they won 6:22 into overtime without Manning ever touching the ball.

2009--Loses 31-17 to New Orleans (Super Bowl). 31-45, 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. You know how this one played out, so all I'll say is Jake's boy, Malcolm Jenkins, nearly intercepted a Manning pass two plays before Porter took his to the house. It's hard to pin blame for the loss on a line like Manning had. I've heard a lot of "if Garçon³ doesn't drop that pass" or "if Wayne hangs on" excuses for why this loss isn't at least partially Manning's fault. Whatever. He came out and threw a pick-6 on the one drive that Indy absolutely, positively could not have a turnover. He hadn't been picked off all night, then he comes out and throws a near-pick to Jenkins followed two plays later by a game-clinching INT. If you want to pretend like his line in a vacuum somehow trumps that level of screw-up, I can only assume that you were never interested in this discussion anyway. (By the way, "INSERT WR NAME dropped a lot of passes in that loss to INSERT TEAM THAT BEAT THE COLTS" is a standard refrain when trying to explain away the losses. It must be really nice to get all the credit when the team wins and have several Mad-Libs-style excuses ready to be deployed if you lose.)

So, what do we have? Six years where the Colts lost their first playoff game ('99, '00, '02, '05, '07, '08). An average line in his losses of 23-35, 263 yards, .67 TD, 1.11 INT. Is that a horrible line? Meh...not really, at least not in terms of yardage/completion percentage. But in terms of TD-INT ratio? Yeah, that's bad. That's really bad, in fact, for a guy who is supposed to be one of the greatest QBs of all time. (For comparison, Manning's regular season ratio is 1.9 TD / .94 INT.) What else do we have? Five games under 250 yards, compared to four games over that admittedly arbitrary cutoff. But, hey, there is obviously an upward trend in terms of completion percentage and total yardage, so he's got that going for him. Which is nice.

The most common defense you hear when some SuperFan18⁴ gets annoyed by your knocking of Manning's playoff record is "it's not HIS fault that the Colts' defense was so bad for all those years." To hear the apologists tell it, Manning has never had a defense that was better than absolutely abysmal. If true, that would certainly go a long way toward redeeming Peyton.

Unfortunately, at least for the person asserting it, that excuse is completely and demonstrably false. Here are the scoring defense and yards/game defense rankings.

Year----scr---ydg
1998---31---31
1999---17---15
2000---15---21
2001---31---29
2002---7-----8
2003---20---11
2004---19---29
2005---2-----11
2006---23---21
2007---1-----3
2008---7-----11
2009---8-----18

In terms of scoring, that's two years when it was horrible, one year you might call bad (23), four years right around average, and FIVE years in the top ten (including one year as the best scoring D when the Colts still lost their first playoff game). In terms of yards/game, it's slightly worse, with three horrible (>/= 29th), four around average (15, 21, 21, 18), and five in or right outside the top ten (8, 11, 11, 3, 11). You've also got Manning's singular Super Bowl title coming in a year that his defense was subpar, which kind of flies in the face of "its always the defense's fault."

You know what you DON'T see? A consistently bad defense that would obviate Manning of the blame for his own poor performance.

Still not convinced? Check Football Outsiders' rankings, both overall rank and adjusted rank:

Year: rnk, adj
1998: 25, 28
1999: 27, 25
2000: 23, 23
2001: 29, 29
2002: 16, 17
2003: 13, 15
2004: 19, 17
2005: 5, 8
2006: 25, 24
2007: 2, 4
2008: 10, 8
2009: 16, 19

Result? Well, it's not quite as damning as the raw rankings, but you still have five bad-to-very-bad seasons ('98, '99, '00, '01, '06; four of which were his first four years, which Manning apologists like to use "he was young" as an excuse for as well), four right around average ('02, '03, '04, '09), and three in the top 10 ('05, '07, '08). In case you are a lawyer and math ain't your thang, that's seven of the eleven seasons with an average-or-better defense.

Let's cross-reference what we have so far.

1998--bad defense, missed playoffs
1999--average-to-bad defense, first-game loss
2000--average-to-below-average defense, first-game loss
2001--very bad defense, missed playoffs
2002--average-to-above-average defense, first-game loss
2003--average defense, AFC championship loss
2004--average defense, second-game loss
2005--good defense, first-game loss
2006--bad defense, Super Bowl win
2007--very good defense, first-game loss
2008--good-to-very-good defense, first-game loss
2009--average-to-above-average defense, Super Bowl loss

If there's a pattern in there that suggests Manning would have won more if only he hadn't been saddled with the Indy D, I sure can't find it.

"B-b-but WAIT," you might be screaming at this point (if you have a pronounced stutter). "ALL QBs are going to have more bad games than good in their playoff losses!!" That is theoretically true, and it even seems logical, but that's not the point. The point is the number of losses (and, tangentially, the number of bad games) that Manning has through his postseason career. Even if you take the somewhat-dubious position that '05, '07, and '08 are not Manning's fault at all, that still leaves SIX losses that you can pin some percentage of on Manning.

Also, it seems that we keep falling back on these built-in excuses. To whatever extent you want to remove responsibility from Manning for some of the playoff losses where he put up good numbers, you have to remove credit for at least three of the wins during the 2006 run. Unless we are back to that VY-esque thing where Manning gets the credit when the team wins but never has to take the blame when the team loses. Check out these numbers:

Manning in Super Bowl win: 25-38, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Manning in AFC Championship win v. NE: 27-47, 349 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Manning in Division Round win v. Bal: 15-30, 170, 0 TD, 2 INT
Manning in W.C. Round win v. KC: 20-38, 268, 1 TD, 3 INT

That is not exactly what I would call a great QB leading his team to Super Bowl glory. I mean, INTs in all four games, a 7:3 INT:TD ratio, 87-153 (57%) overall? How very Sex Cannon of you.

Finally (and maybe, at this point, I am piling on) it's also worth noting that struggling in big games is not just an NFL phenomenon for Manning. Look at his college career:

1994--Manning was pressed into duty as a Freshman after the first- and second-string QBs went down. Tennessee had already lost to UGA and Florida before Manning took over the gig, and they would lose to Alabama under him, but the only big game they had that year was the Gator Bowl against Va Tech. They won that game, but Manning was not much of a factor, going 12-19, 189 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

1995--The Vols started the season 2-0, and were ranked eighth in the nation when they made the drive down to Gainesville. Manning put up 326 yds and 2 TDs, but the Gators won big, 62-37. While Tennessee's four fumbles were to blame, Manning was also unable to adjust after halftime. He finished the first half with 216 yards and both TDs, but could muster only 110 yds and no TDs in the second half when Florida adjusted by stopping the run and blitzing Manning. This was UT's only regular season loss.

1996--Tennessee was #2 in the country and Florida #4 when the two teams met. Florida jumped out to a 35-0 lead thanks in large part to four first-half INTs from Manning. When Florida went to a bend-but-don't-break coverage in the second half (and especially late when Florida went to a straight prevent), Manning put up most of his gaudy stat line (second half: 25 of 39, 277 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs). Unfortunately for Peyton, both halves counted equally, and his three late touchdowns were not enough to overcome his four early INTs.

1997--Florida was the second-ranked team and Tennessee the fourth-ranked team when they met for Manning's final attempt to beat UF. The 33-20 loss left Manning 0-for-Florida for his career, and Tony George's 89-yard pick-6 was a SportsCenter staple later that season when Heisman voters were discussing Peyton's inability to win the big one. Manning's line for the game was 29 of 51, 353 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seems decent enough on the surface, but between the back-breaking George INT to end the first half, and the fact that UT was already down 33-14 before Manning notched the third TD, it was hardly a Heisman-esque performance. This season ended with the aforementioned figurative defenestration of Manning in his final college game against Nebraska.

Look, like I said, I don't dispute that Manning is statistically a great QB. But to sit there and act like he's been anything other than pedestrian as often as not in the playoffs?

¹Is it fair to put all the blame on Manning there? Probably not; he wasn't the reason that the Huskers ran for roughly 3,447 yards that day (estimate). But being logical and being a fan rarely have a perfect correlation, and when Tee and The Martinettes won the title next year, Peyton's role as choking ninny was forever cemented in my mind. (That Tennessee had an outside shot at the title had they won and Michigan lost, and that they didn't even have to WIN so much as "not get fisted" for Michigan to rightfully have the whole title just add to my disdain.)

² Right here is where I imagine the less-witty among the Colts fans are scrolling straight to the comments to write something along the lines of "Let's compare Peyton's playoff stats to Matt Schaub's playoff stats. Oh, wait." Spare me. First, that's not witty; most of you can do better. Second, and more importantly, that in no way responds to the argument. Pretending otherwise doesn't change that. Make a real rebuttal based on the facts if you feel the need to respond. [/tilting at windmills]

³ It means "boy."

⁴ Someone should make Manning's head bleed for him.

Mocking The Draft: Version 3.0

2010-03-09T14:15:55Z

Mocking The Draft: Version 3.0

Take a look at what SB Nation's official draft site sees your Houston Texans doing in the first two rounds.

Report: Leigh Bodden Will Re-Up With New England

2010-03-09T02:53:41Z

Per John McClain:

After spending Monday visiting with the Texans at Reliant Stadium, free agent cornerback Leigh Bodden has decided to re-sign with New England, according to multiple reports.

However, agent Alvin Keels posted on Twitter that reports of Bodden returning to New England are premature and that nothing will be official before Tuesday at the earliest, which means he's got an agreement that hasn't been signed.

So...nothing official yet, but it doesn't look good. I'm not holding my breath.

UPDATE: It's official.

Leigh Bodden, Anyone?

2010-03-08T03:34:30Z

Despite John McClain's initial proclamation that your Houston Texans have no interest in Leigh Bodden and/or any intention of signing him, it appears that Bodden is currently in H-Town meeting with and/or readying to meet with the Texans brass (along with Wade Smith, who apparently has not yet signed with the Bills as rumored).

With Dunta Robinson laughing all the way to the bank in Atlanta, what would you pay Leigh Bodden to line up as a starting cornerback for the Texans come September? Alan Burge has an excellent table up that puts corner salaries in perspective. Me? I'd say Jabari Greer or Jacques Reeves money is palatable. Anything more than that, and I do believe I'd roll the dice with Reeves, Glover Quin, Brice McCain, and unknown rookie cornerback(s) in 2010.

By the way, here are Leigh Bodden's career statistics. As a reference point, here are Dunta Robinson's career numbers. Yes, different players, different systems, different surroundings, etc. And yes, you're worth whatever someone's willing to pay you. Still...given what Dunta got from the Falcons, the numbers would seem to imply that Leigh Bodden is worth fourteen years and $103,249,201.34.

Glossary of Battle Red Blog Terms, Now With 90% More Weightspeed

2009-11-07T17:24:02Z

Lately we've been getting a lot of people who follow other teams over here at BRB. Some of them have expressed that they are occasionally confused at some of the terms we use here. With that in mind, I present to you all a glossary of terms that we use here at BRB. I should point out that some of these terms are blatantly stolen from DGDB&D. Full credit to MDC and bfd for coming up with them.

UPDATE: I'm hoping to put this back on the sidebar. I've added a new name and I'm hoping you guys can come up with some more.

UPDATED UPDATE: I've been meaning to add some more names to this list for a while now. Here they are. Enjoy!

BRB regulars, if you can think of any other terms, please put them in the comments and I will update this fanpost to reflect them.

Mr. Mittens, Zoolander, Eli Manning's Fluffer - David Carr

Winstonsaurus - Eric Winston

Barbaro - Charles Spencer, former LT of the Texans who got injured in a freak accident and never could get back to health.

Zima - A demonic substance that, when ingested rapidly, turns otherwise sane bloggers into raving lunatics.

Scott - Rumored co-founder of BRB. In actuality Tim's evil alter ego who only appears after Tim downs too much Zima.

LVJ - Kevin Bentley. Short for Lyndon Veins Johnson. To find out why, head over to DGDB&D (I'd link to them but I can't from here).

Smoove Will - Will Demps

Patrick Willis - Before the San Francisco game, we discovered that some of our friends at Niners Nation think a wee bit too highly of their (admittedly very excellent) linebacker. I'll let someone else explain it from here. Take it away, TexansForever:

When the ball is snapped, WIllis bursts out of his Jersey and flies 20 feet up into the air (spinning in a 360) as he is surrounded by a Holy Light and wings sprout from his back.

He then splits into the three aspects, Coverer, Tackler and Son. Each aspect then converges on an opposing player and blankets him in a radiant light of blinding glory while the offense falls prostrate in divine worship.

Rosencopter - One of the darkest days in franchise history. Sage Rosenfels' attempt to get one more first down against Indy that led to the Texans coughing up a 17 point lead with five minutes left to play.

DeJesus - DeMeco

The Baddest Person Who Ever Lived - Andre Johnson (I just made that up, but it is 100% accurate, I swear)

teh Schaub - Our quarterback

BESFs - The Baby Eating Sister F*ckers, also known as the Tennessee Titans. To find out why, click here.

Satan, Beelzebub - The owner of the BESFs.

Radio - Vince Young

Vodka - Kerry Collins

Apostrophe - Andre' Davis

Durga - A Hindu goddess to whom Texans fans pray for good luck.

BANNED! – Threatening to ban somebody for no reason.

Ballhawk Gamecock – The player formerly known as Fred Bennett

Hugene – Eugene Seale

Evil Genius – Frank Okam

Bitchephant – Kama’s "wheels"

THOR – James Casey (The Hero Of Rice) and minor deity

Bone Crusher, The Season Ender - Bernard Pollard

The Comicle - A Houston newspaper whose coverage of sports often appears to be written by bored chimpanzees.

Little Dicky Justice, Age 12 - Vince Young's soulmate. Also, one of the chief chimpanzees at the Comicle.

Pancakes - A Texas-sized version of the Sally Struthers character from South Park. Also writes for the Comicle.

K-Dub - Kevin Walter

OD - Owen Daniels

Cowgirls, Cokeboys - A team that plays in Southern Oklahoma.

Jerah - Owner of the aforementioned team.

Frenchy - Jacques Reeves.

Methopotamia - Where the BESFs and Satan reside.

Coors Light - Tim’s beverage of choice. Bad mouthing it will result in being BANNED!

Horse vomit - The secret ingredient in Coors Light.

The Human Coke Machine - Vonta Leach

The Vonta Leach KTFO Award - An award formerly given by DGDB&D for people who had been knocked the f*ck out in a style the Human Coke Machine would approve of. Ought to be resurrected (hint, hint).

Shankapotamus - Kris Brown, our (hopefully) soon-to-be ex-kicker

Weightspeed - the sum of weight and speed. Extremely useful in gauging a player's ability as well as determining liability in motor vehicle collisions

Assmass - how big a player's ass is, as measured in pounds or kilograms

Peepants - Chris White

Falconry - a big time sport for big time athletes

Cowgirls - South Oklahoma's team

End Around - The exact same play as a reverse

Free Agent Thread for 3/7/10

2010-03-07T15:39:10Z

Just to have a new thread so we don't have to scroll thru a few hundred comments....

I guess this could be a new thread.

Signings:

Seems like Kampman has agreed to a deal with the Jags. Terms havent been disclosed yet. Id rather Kampman be outta the AFC South as I still think he is pretty good.

Rumors:

Shaun Rogers maybe on the move?
Texans are or are not interested in Bodden?

Anyone know of any visits scheduled this week?

(Thanks for kicking this off, EHTR. Bumped accordingly. - bfd)

Texans Free Agency Recap (Day One): Kevin Walter Stays Home

2010-03-06T17:21:03Z

That was a fairly eventful Friday night, huh? Some quick thoughts on Kevin Walter, the newest Atlanta Falcon, and another alleged Smithiak target after the jump:

-Very happy to see that Kevin Walter is staying in Houston. Prior to the 2009 season, I was convinced that K-Dub would be leaving Houston for greener pastures. Unfortunately for Walter and fortunately for the Texans (speaking from a negotiating perspective), his 2009 season was a disappointment when compared to his breakout 2008 campaign. That's not to say Walter lost his fastball or suffered from a diminishing skill set; he battled injuries at the beginning of the season, and Owen Daniels saw his targets increase as he was arguably the most productive tight end in the NFL (until he went down).

Nevertheless, I still thought Walter was a goner once free agency hit. And he may well have been bound for Baltimore had the Ravens not pulled off that deal for Anquan Boldin. Thankfully, we'll never know, as the Texans and Walter agreed to a five (5) year deal worth $21,000,000.00 ($8,000,000.00 of which is guaranteed). I think it's a good deal for both parties. The guaranteed dollars seem about right for a proven No. 2 WR who's perfect for Kubiak's system, and the total dollars aren't so ridiculous that we'll be lamenting that Walter's severely overpaid in a couple of years if he's still with the team. Additionally, K-Dub's return means we won't have to deal with the roller coaster ride that would've been Jacoby Jones as WR2. I know some of you were ready for that; I was not. Regardless, Kevin Walter is your WR2 for 2010, and that's a good thing.

-Dunta Robinson managed to convince the Atlanta Falcons to give him a six (6) year contract worth $57,000,000.00, $25,500,000.00 of which is guaranteed. This means Dunta Robinson is now the second highest-paid cornerback in the league. It also means Falcons fans have my sympathies. First we take Matt Schaub from them, and then cosmic forces conspire to give them Dunta. Egad.

-One more note about Dunta, and then I'll leave it alone: He was right. The $23,000,000.00 in guaranteed money purportedly offered to him by Smithiak last year was, believe it or not, less than he was worth on the open market. Combine that with the nearly $10,000,000.00 he banked last year, and you have to admit that things worked out just fine for ol' D-Rob. Of course, the question of whether his play is actually worth that much scratch is a different issue entirely. An issue that we don't have to debate anymore, as he is now Atlanta's ~~problem~~ property. Godspeed, Dunta.

-Your Houston Texans were supposedly scheduled to entertain Wade Smith, an offensive lineman most recently employed by the Kansas City Chiefs, today. Word is, however, that Smith's set to sign with the Bills. Such is life. Again, I don't expect any big splashes to be made at Reliant Park via free agency, so I'm counting on most, if not all, the names we hear mentioned as possible Houston acquisitions to be low-key, depth guys.

Thoughts on K-Dub, Dunta, and/or Wade Smith? Leave 'em in the Comments below. And consider this your open thread for Day Two of free agency.

Adam Schefter: Dunta Robinson Signs Six-Year Deal With Atlanta

2010-03-05T22:56:41Z

Adam Schefter: Dunta Robinson Signs Six-Year Deal With Atlanta

Best of luck in Atlanta, Dunta. Very interested to see what kind of money the Falcons ponied up to make this happen. Depending on the guaranteed dollars, Atlanta fans could come to rue the day this deal was signed. And that day could come awfully quickly.