BCS Evolution

Dominoes: MAC Edition

2010-03-20T04:12:06Z

The MAC has been mentioned once or twice as possible targets, especially for Big East or C-USA replacement options. The likelihood of this is slim as, frankly, the MAC has suffered lately in the performance of its marque teams.

With an unbalanced division structure the MAC would be well off to lose a member and would not be compelled to find a replacement. The chances of losing more than one are extremely remote.

All in all the MAC is sitting solid for the next round of expansions.

At least as solid as they are now. The real focus here needs to be winning with what you have now.

114 Teams 'til Kickoff: Kent State

2010-03-20T02:26:15Z

More photos » Mary Schwalm - AP

6 months ago: Boston College defender Damik Scafe (55) wraps up Kent State runningback Andre Flowers during the second half of an NCAA college football game, in Boston, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009. Boston College beat Kent State, 34-7. (AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)

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The Kent St. Golden Flashes play in Kent Ohio and participate in the MAC. That is all I really know about them of the top of my head.

Ok, I lied. I looked up the city they play in. I can unsympathetically summarize this program's history by stating that they trail there rival, Akron, 20-27-1 in the all time series. Their status in the FBS has changed as often as the NCAA changes names of this collection of top teams. They have played in the FBS since 1983, when it was still Division 1-A.

If the pattern continues, the FBS will change their name and requirements to exclude teams like Kent State, and Kent State will find a way to get their name back in the pot.

Head Coach: Doug Martin (Seventh Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Jerry McManus? (Sixth Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Pete Rekstis (Seventh Year)

A look at Kent State's actual BCS numbers over the past few years next.

So, how do the Golden Flashs' look in the numbers used by the BCS to compare conferences?

	2007 (4-8)	2008 (2-10)	2009 (3-9)	Average (0.2500)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	108.8	106.3	103.3	106.1
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.6758	-0.6408	-0.5987	-0.6384

Not exactly a football power these past few years.

Schedule:

Team	Date
Murray St.	9/2
@Boston College	9/11
@Penn State	9/18
@Miami (Ohio)	10/2
Akron	10/9
@Toledo	10/16
@Bowling Green	10/23
Ball State	10/30
Temple	11/6
Army	11/13
@W. Michigan	11/20
Ohio	11/26
MAC Championship Game	12/4

Seriously thought, Toledo, Bowling Green and Miami (Ohio) all on the road in the same year is a tough road by MAC standards. The upside is more home games against teams they might garner a bowl berth with.

SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice

2010-03-20T00:47:50Z

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Should College Players by Paid?

2010-03-16T01:02:38Z

I have posted this thought before, and it usually gets shot down pretty quickly. If the BCS leagues are planning to break away from the NCAA, as I am entertaining here, this is a question they will have to consider. The idea of paid college players is not as horrible as many make it seem.

Never mind the systematic breach of contract our institutions of higher education make with our inner city youth who are told that athletic success can be their ticket to a higher education and a better life, only to have those scholarships and dreams stripped away after an unfortunate injury. That should almost be criminal when signed letters of intent are in play.

Back to paid players...

First you have the question of fair market value. The NFL minimum salary is $250,000. The average NCAA full ride scholarship has a value of roughly $40,000. That is a factor of 6 between what elite athletes could make in the NFL vs. the NCAA. If an independent league formed they could not pay what the NFL pays, but certainly could compete or exceed $40,000. Especially for the premium positions.

Simply put, several players are worth more than a full ride NCAA scholarship. Forcing these players into an NCAA mold that presumes they should be prepared for some other discipline than sports fails to adequately prepare many for the high profile role model positions our society cast upon them.

I am not talking full time employees here. I am talking about letting the schools act as agents for thier student athletes when it comes to endorsment deals for the team and star athletes. The student athletes would receive a stipend from these revenue sources that increases after their endorements have covered the costs of their scholarships.

The NCAA already makes a killing off of video games licensing.

Student athletes would be taught how to present themselves in the public eye and the value of maintaining an image corperations desire to associate with their name. A lesson that could have served many former NFL players well.

Rather than tempting student athletes and boosters to tempt fate in under the table deals (the ones you want to ignore that you know your own school's boosters are guilty of that no one wants to really talk about), the process can be brough above the table and allowed to benifit all student athletes, not just the ones willing to let the rules sit on the sidelines while they do what they have to do.

Ok, you still don't like the idea of paying players? Ok fine. Let's at least set up a trust fund with the video game endorsement revenue to fund scholarships for those students with signed letters of intent who lose their athletic scholarships for reasons not related to academics.

Poll

Should college athletes who are able to secure endorsements through their colleges be paid?

Postseason Constraint #14: Reduce Controversy to a Managable Level

2010-03-14T20:13:11Z

[Editor's note: This is part of a series examining the real world constraints on any proposed postseason design. For the previous entries is is best to start at the introduction of the series. This is derived from pages 90 and 91 of my plan to fix the BCS]

The controversy surrounding the BCS has become toxic. The two primary sources of controversy relevant to a tournament are the failure to give all teams a chance to earn a national championship and having to choose between arbitrarily close teams at the #2 and #3 spot. Moving this to a lower spot actually decreases the consensus of the selection and increases the number of teams claiming they were deserving of a spot.

The old bowl system avoided this by not even pretending to be interested in determining a true national champion. If more games could claim to be a part of the championship picture the better for them all.

Undefeated teams can be managed by requiring any tournament to select undefeated teams prior to teams with a loss. At least five spots would be needed to cover the past twelve years.

Only using gaps instead of a set cutoff addresses the cutoff consensus issue.

Old Bowl System

The old bowl system thrived in controversy and used it to add value to more games by being able to claim that each had a potential for shaping the national championship outcome.

BCS

The BCS creates controversy by claiming to present a national championship game that is widely disputed. Selections of the teams and omission of undefeated teams are two persistent sources of controversy.

At large berths out of order relative to the BCS's own standings are also a source of mild controversy.

A Tier Based Plus-One

This design would reduce controversy in the championship and increase the controversy of the selection process by expanding the field.

The qualifications for two bowl games are concrete and accessible to all teams. With the current volume of bowls all teams eligible for two bowls would be expected to be selected by two bowls, even if they are not selected for a first round game.

A Flexible Championship System

This design was formed to minimize sources of controversy in the selection process. It gets the teams right, while risking controversy in the bracketing, particularly among the bye determinations.

MWC Proposal

The number of undefeated teams left out would be significantly reduced. The controversy over the selection of teams would be dependent on the public opinion of the selection committee. The choices would be more difficult than the current options.

Enhanced Bowl Season

This design increases the net controversy for clarity over the national champion.

The Wetzel Plan

A sixteen team tournament with five at large teams would significantly reduce the controversy over the champion while magnifying the selection controversy.

115 Teams 'til Kickoff: Tulane

2010-03-14T19:23:49Z

More photos » Bill Haber - AP

4 months ago: Tulane head coach Bob Toledo watches the action from the sideline against LSU in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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The Tulane Green Wave, who play in the New Orleans Super Dome, are not recovering as well from Katrina as their NFL stadium mates.

Tulane was the first team to go undefeated without a BCS invite (not even to a BCS bowl) in the BCS era in 1998. "You should have stayed in the SEC to prove your strength" people said at the time (though it was in 1966 that they left the SEC).

Head Coach: Bob Toledo (Fourth Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Dan Dodd (Fourth Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Steve Stanard (Second Year)

A look at Tulane's actual BCS numbers over the past few years next.

So, how do the Green Wave look in the numbrs used by the BCS to compare conferences?

	2007 (4-8)	2008 (2-10)	2009 (3-9)	Average (0.2500)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	108.5	115.3	104.5	109.4
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.6723	-0.7668	-0.6163	-0.6851

Yeap, still negative. This means that none will be inviting them to join their confernce to boost their BCS stats any time soon. The first ream with a positive score is #64, due out near the end of May.

Schedule:

Team	Date
Ole Miss	9/11
@Rutgers	10/2
Army	10/9
Rice	TBA
SMU	TBA
UCF	TBA
@Houston	TBA
@Tulsa	TBA
@UTEP	TBA
C-USA TBA	TBA
@C-USA TBA	TBA
TBA	TBA
C-USA Championship Game	12/4

Dominoes: C-USA Edition

2010-03-13T04:14:52Z

C-USA was mentioned as targets in the East by the Big East and possibly the ACC and the West by the MWC and perhaps the Big 12. As a twelve team conference C-USA is stable and unlikely to change without outside influence. Unless the MWC expands to 12 or the Big 10 goes to 14 C-USA has little to fear.

What options are available if the dominoes turn their way?

C-USA would have there pick of Sun Belt, MAC and WAC teams. Geography becomes a major obstacle for most of these teams. Basically, C-USA is sitting good and has options if they are forced to use them.

Teams from the MAC are typically a bit far north to fit in C-USA. The Central Michigan Chippewas have had some recent success that could warrant an exception. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks and Toledo Rockets have some recent history and the Northern Illinois Huskies brings a solid athletics department. Frankly, I must admit a certain bias against the existence of a 13 team conference.

Teams from the WAC are far west, even for the C-USA western division. LA Tech is a glaring exception. This shift should happen for geographical reasons alone.

The Sun Belt offers the Troy Trojans and Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders who would fit nicely into the C-USA geography and have had some recent success. Florida Atlantic Owls could extend the reach into Florida and enjoyed some not to distant success.

Several Colonial Athletic Association members would be a quick solid fit as well.

Senators' letter to Bill Hancock

2010-03-12T03:29:41Z

US Senator's Orin Hatch (R-Utah) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) have sent a letter to BCS Administrator Bill Hancock looking for answers to their concerns. Bill Hancock has publicly acknowledged the letter, and will answer it in due time.

I'm looking forward to taking a longer look at the letter. I sure do think that Congress has more important things to do, with all the issues facing our country. The BCS is fair. Access is fair. Revenue is distributed fairly. And frankly, we welcome the opportunity to tell our story every chance we get.

A look at the questions contained in the letter, there significance and what is already known about the answers to the questions after the jump.

Question 1 Paraphrase: How will you be distributing the increased revenue?

The BCS literature is clear that the payouts are expressed in terms of percentages of revenue generated, after expenses. Each party will receive the same percentage of revenue they had in the past.

Question 2 Paraphrase: Will the measurable increase in parity be rewarded in the new contract?

With the possible exception of the MWC earning a BCS automatic qualification, it is unlikely that any changes will happen. The increase in parity will likely be dealt with by an impending round of conference alignments.

Question 3 Paraphrase: You said that the BCS pays roughly $18.5 to conferences who participate. Where is the WAC and MWC's money?

It is always good to catch someone in a falsehood in the public record. The BCS might be able to fudge their way out of this using averages, but the point made is unflinching. Neither conference mentioned made half the value quoted from BCS literature.

Question 4 Paraphrase: How exactly are future automatic qualifications determined, and how would the pay change?

The known details are listed in the letter. Frankly the picture is clear. The MWC will be very close to an invite, especially if they invite Boise State this summer. No one else even comes close to the edge. I expect this formula to be announced after this year's BCS annual meeting, which will also precede any formal answer to this letter.

Any conference earning a bid would earn an equal share with the other automatic qualifying conferences, plus $4.5 million if they qualify a second team. ESPN has already stated the revenue will not be changed based on any changes to the automatic qualifications that may happen. The result is the current automatic qualifying conferences would lose roughly $3 million each to pay for the new conference's share.

The BCS allows for 5-7 conferences to earn automatic qualifications. All were evaluated over 2007-2010 to determine the current automatic qualifications. 2008-2011 will be evaluated to determine if any new conferences should be admitted for 2012 and 2013. All conferences would be evaluated over 2010-2013 if the current arrangement is extended through the next cycle. If one of the six automatic qualifying conferences failed to meet these criteria they would lose their automatic qualification.

Question 5 Paraphrase: What exactly is the BCS?

Currently, it is unclear to us what sort of status the BCS enjoys as an organization. According to public information, it appears that the BCS agreement did not result in the formation of a separate legal entity, with an exception of an entity that has been assigned ownership of certain intellectual property rights. Instead, the BCS apparently considers itself an "arrangement" wherein the teams, conferences, and bowl-game organizations appear to have remained completely separate and ostensibly independent.

How then does the BCS hire an Executive Director and hire Ari Fleischer? Who pays for these expenses?

Awesome question from a legal side. I would be curious to hear the answers to this question myself.

Question 6 Paraphrase: How exactly do the computer methods work?

Calls for making source codes for the ranking algorithms public will not be answered due to intellectual property rights. While some form of auditing might be appropriate, the BCS has hinted that they have some measures for evaluating which computer components are used. Transparency here would be a far more reachable goal.

Frankly, I would defend the BCS on the computer rankings if they made one change. Allow algorithms incorporating MOV to compete in the performance metrics the BCS measure computer algorithms against.

Thus ends the letter, after a few pleasantries.

Super Conferences: Financial Independence

2010-03-12T02:24:45Z

Many BCS critics use the argument that most BCS institutions fund their athletic departments and receive fudning from state and federal sources. Only 25 of the 120 FBS athletic departments generate a profit for their institution. These revenue streams provide opportunity to hold these institutions accountable to the public interests.

For perspective, the average FBS institution subsidises athletics to the tune of $8 million above what they generate on their own. Over the entire FBS that is nearly a billion dollars nationally to support big time college athletics and big time coaches salaries funded by the universities from mostly tax payer revenue.

Accountability is a good thing. Could the day come when the BCS institutions decide that they could use less of it, especially in the financial areas? If that day comes they will need to learn to operate without those tax payer subsidies. That would typically mean budget cutbacks of nearly 12% for an athletic department with a budget of $65 million. Larger programs would feel less of an impact and 25 would feel no impact, as they already operate at a profit. Many smaller programs would simply be unable to compete.

If the big name schools really want to establish a clear definition of what makes them better than the rest profitability is the most direct measure that can be applied. If college is headed to a new of elite programs this is the measure that should be used to determine who should be invited.

If you want to join our league, make a profit where you are and we will start talking.

The major issue is accountability. If the athletic departments are financially independent, then they are also less answerable to the institutions they represent. The board of directors and university presidents would still have control of hiring and firing AD's, but the cash would flow the other direction.

Competitive rewards would need to be built into the system to reward institutions whose athletes excell academically. (A larger required payback to the parent college for academically struggling athletic departments for example.)

These budget cutbacks could be phased in to reduce there initial impact. Once these institutions are freed of the rest of the NCAA they should command a far larger share of the marketable revenue streams for college sports and regain these set backs.

Poll

Should big time athletic departments be supported by thier academic institutions?

116 Teams 'til Kickoff: Eastern Michigan

2010-03-08T00:00:20Z

The Eastern Michigan Eagles, like Boise St., play on a field the color of there uniforms. The comparisons end there, and in this case the uniforms are green.

East Michigan has a history of ending up near here in lists line this. These lists are fairly static and not much movement should be expected from one year to the next. This is amplified in lists where an average over a number of years is used.

Head Coach: Ron English (Second Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Ken Karcher (Second Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow (First Year?)

So, how do the Eagles look in the BCS conference comp[arison numbers?

	2007 (4-9)	2008 (3-9)	2009 (3-10)	Average (0.2632)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	100.5	108.8	119.0	109.4
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.5602	-0.6758	-0.8193	-0.6851

Schedule:

Team	Date
Army	9/4
@Miami (OH)	9/11
Central Michigan	9/18
@Ohio State	9/25
Ohio	10/2
@Vanderbilt	10/9
@Ball State	10/16
@Virginia	10/23
Toledo	10/30
@Western Michigan	11/13
@Buffalo	11/20
Northern Illinois	11/26
MAC Championship Game	12/3

These are the type of teams Vanderbilt schedules for homecomming to dodge the claim that they are afraid to play a FBS team.

NCAA rules require all teams from a conference with a championship game to have that game listed on their schedules.

These reviews are making me start to feel mean. Really though, that is what happens when you start at the bottom. Especially if you really are mean.

Poll

Is it ok to be mean to the bottom 10 teams?

117 Team 'til Kickoff: New Mexico St.

2010-03-06T22:24:05Z

Finally, we have a team from outside the Sun Belt to discuss. Coming in at #117 over the past three years are the New Mexico St. Aggies.

As a perennial WAC bottom dweller, their recent win over New Mexico may indicate a turn for the worst in the Land of Enchantment.

Head Coach: DeWayne Walker (Second Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Dunbar (First Year, from Minnesota)
Defensive Coordinator: None

Perhaps next year I should shuffle the order ... that would make things a little better at the start of the series.

	2007 (4-9)	2008 (3-9)	2009 (3-10)	Average (0.2632)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	110.0	108.3	110.3	109.5
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.6933	-0.6688	-0.6968	-0.6863

Schedule:

Team	Date
SDSU	9/11
@UTEP	9/18
@Kansas	9/25
New Mexico	10/9
Boise St.	TBA
Hawaii	TBA
LA Tech	TBA
San Jose St.	TBA
@Fresno St.	TBA
@Idaho	TBA
@Nevada	TBA
@Utah St.	TBA

The most interesting thing on the schedule to me is the battle of the bottom between the bottom of the WAC and MWC represented here.

BCS News Update

2010-03-06T20:26:54Z

BCS might be facing multi-hundred million dollar lawsuit says Utah's Mark Shurtleff at this years National Association of Attorneys General spring convention.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and Christine Varney, the chief of the U.S. Department of Justice's Antitrust Division were listening, as Shurtleff also presented a 90 page report to the Depertment of Justice.

Really not much new here, just the same political insiders making stands that are known. The headway into the Department of Justice is notable.

We may be headed towards the end of college football as we now know it.

Dominoes: MWC Edition

2010-03-06T19:47:35Z

The members of the MWC have been mentioned in a few of the series so far. The Utah Utes and BYU Cougars were mentioned in the PAC 10 expansion dicussion and BYU and the TCU Horned Frogs were mentioned in the Big 12's response to losing the Texas Longhorns, Missouri Tigers or Colorado Buffalos.

The plain fact is that if the MWC loses two or even three of these teams they are tarneshed to a point where they are no longer the obvious choice for WAC and C-USA teams looking for an upgrade. I expect the MWC to expand this summer to possition themselves so that even if a team or two leaves they would still be left in a strong possition to draw WAC and C-USA west members.

The next college football realignment will be the MWC inviting the Boise St. Broncos. Or the MWC will be dealt a death blow when the PAC 10 and BIG 10 finally make their moves. It is pretty much that simple.

This is the year to move because an announcement for this year wound take place for the 2011 season and move the teams in question to the MWC for the next round of BCS evaluations. Boise State would likely push the MWC over the hump.

The question is whether this is the only team they add this year.

As far as the BCS metrics go, Boise State is the only sure fire win for the MWC. The Hawaii Warriors looks good in the BCS number now but their 2007 season will roll off the window before the next evaluation period. The Houston Cougars, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Fresno St. Bulldogs and Nevada Wolf Pack would add strength to the middle of the MWC while also diminishing the value of the WAC and C-USA when further changes are forced upon them. These schools are all on par with what the Air Force Falcons bring to the confernece.

10-12 team confereces are the status quo, with the trend towards 12 teams. The main problem with the MWC is that Boise State, Utah and BYU would likely be in the same division, due to the very close proximity. This division would be much more top hevier than the other side, with TCU expected to be a clear leader. Houston and Tulsa would be the best additions if a 12 team confernece with a championship game is the way the MWC decides to go.

I would like an East-West split with the rockies forming a natural divide between the two divisions.

Poll

What should the MWC's expansion plan be?

118 Teams 'til Kickoff: Florida International

2010-03-02T14:00:32Z

The Fla. Interantional Golden Panthers began football in the 2002 season and became the fastest program to join FBS football in 2005.

Many believe the move to be premature, especially with the limited success of the team at the FCS level for its first three years.

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal (Fifth Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Scott Satterfield (First Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Geoff Colins(First Year)

How have the Golden Panthers faired at the FBS level?

Unfortunately the beat will go on for the first few weeks of this process as teams near the bottom that might well be better off in the FCS get thier fair ~~abuse~~ due coverage.

	2007 (1-11)	2008 (5-7)	2009 (0-12)	Average (0.2500)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	117.3	100.3	111	109.5
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.7948	-0.5567	-0.7073	-0.6863

Schedule:

Team	Date
Rutgers	9/11
@Texas A&M	9/18
@Maryland	9/25
@Pittsburgh	10/2
UL Monroe	TBA
Western Kentucky	TBA
Arkansas St	TBA
Middle Tenn. St.	TBA
@Troy	TBA
@UL Lafayette	TBA
@North Texas	TBA
@Florida Atlantic	TBA

Interesting that the first three teams in this series are all from the Sun Belt. More on that once I get all the Sun Belt teams done and post a conference recap.

BCS vs. the NCAA - The Birth of the Super Conferences?

2010-03-02T03:31:04Z

It is time to look at a side issue to conference realignment with overtones far more significant than teams changing dancing partners on their schedules.

The persistent rumor of super conferences has been around for decades. The idea is that the top conferences might split off and form a new league. The conferences involved in this idea? The same ones operating the BCS. After the jump I will outline how a shift might come about.

The real question is would this be a bad thing?

The NCAA is instituted to protect the student athletes and promote amateurism in collegiate sports. This has become overly bureaucratic and often the NCAA focuses on minutia of their rules while dragging their feet while investigating institutions too big to fail.

The NCAA constantly harasses the strongest teams with rules that require federal anti trust exemptions to be legal. Scholarship limits, restricting teams to playing only NCAA members and the strict interpretation of amateurism itself are ideas that can not be enforced as the NCAA does in any other market.

If a push is made to bring the FBS postseason in line with the NCAA systems used for other leagues this might be the final straw that pushes the big conferences over the tipping point. An NCAA postseason takeover would bring a far more egalitarian revenue sharing system than the bowls, which are already highly progressive when measured as a percent of football operations revenue. In short, the NCAA would take from the teams that create the market for the sports to subsidize those teams that wouldn't make it otherwise.

The top 60 or so teams subsidize the entire NCAA. If they did not have to share the TV revenue their sports teams generate they would have plenty of revenue to become financially independent of the parent institutions. If they were not paying for all other colleges to support their programs they would not be costing themselves or their tax payers to run their athletic departments.

European athletes in non revenue sports often have difficulties transferring to NCAA institutions due to cultural differences in athletes between the US and the rest of the world. The BCS could become the front for a collegiate sports reform effort to bring US sports to the club league concept used by most of the world.

To break away from the NCAA the BCS leagues would need to break free of the legislative ties that bind them politically to the whims of state politicians. The BCS leagues would have to commit themselves to running athletics on their own profits. Athletics would help fund the academic missions of the BCS institutions. The ability to meet this requirement would be the most fair way to determine which leagues and teams would be invited to participate. If you can't commit to a plan to forge a financially independent athletic department in the next decade you should not be invited.

NCAA members wishing to make a jump at a later time would need to demonstrate they can operate for a profit first. The days of taking on debt to build facilities that outpace the growth of the athletic departments for a division upgrade would be over.

A substantive move in this direction would put the NCAA on their heals. They would be forced to decide to ~~allow~~ force them to leave or compromise on their long standing views. A compromise allowing football to break away but maintaining all other sports could be a viable middle ground.

The BCS would then face tough issues like whether the new arrangements should include stipends for some players, possibility of independents, and a tournament format.

The best chance for a playoff between the top teams in the land might just be for the BCS to break away from the NCAA.

Poll

Should the BCS conferences break away from the NCAA?

No, greed would destroy the student athletes

25 votes

Yes, this idea is overdue

9 votes

Yes, it is time to face the reality of today's sports world.

12 votes

No, the NCAA should be allowed to extend their antitrust exemptions into the football postseason.

15 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

119 Teams 'til Kickoff: Western Kentucky

2010-03-01T03:12:52Z

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers look to jump out and get a football program with more name recognition than thier maskot, Big Red. They have just comnpleted their first year in FCS and earned an 0-12 record.

Head Coach: Willie Taggart (First Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Sanford? (First Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Clint Bowen (First Year)

Will a new staff be enough to finish their move up to big time football?

BCS numbers and 2010 schedule after the jump.

If you really want to see the numbers, here they are. It certainly looks to me like they were doing better in the BCS computers before jumping to the Sun Belt.

	2007 (7-5) (Transition Year)	2008 (2-10) (Transition Year)	2009 (0-12)	Average (0.2500)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	104.8	119.8	120	114.8
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-0.6198	-0.8298	-0.8333	-0.7610

Schedule:

Team	Date
@Nebraska	9/4
@Kentucky	9/11
Indiana	9/18
@South Florida	9/25
Middle Tennessee St.	TBA
North Texas	TBA
Florida Atlantic	TBA
UL Monroe	TBA
@Florida International	TBA
@UL Lafayette	TBA
@Troy	TBA
@Arkansas State	TBA

Cases like this make me wonder if the time and effort some schools make into becoming FBS members is worth all the fuss. Maybe Grand Valley State is a model some of these schools should be looking towards for a realistic ideal.

Does it really make sense to invest lots of money on shiny new facilities paid for by debt that counts on future earning from a BCS bubble that might not last? I am not so sure.

Postseason Constraint #13: Rewarding the Champions of the Top Conferneces

2010-02-28T03:00:32Z

The TV money is generated from creating high interest matchups. Percieved value is a bigger part of this equation than actual team strength.

Lets look this one simple fact square in the eyes: most of the big name schools that the average fan recognises are members of a handful of conferences. (Let's also look this simple fact in the eyes. the TCU Horned Frogs and Boise St. Broncos garnered more eyes than the ACC champion Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Big 12 runner up Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2010 BCS Nelson ratings.)

There are teams in big name confrences with bad credentials and recognised teams outside the big name conferences. When you are looking to bet on which confernces are going to have the highest ranked champion you don't pick the confernece with one team running in the front and nothing to back them up if that team falls.

Any design will need to cater to those teams nost likely to participate. Or it will need anti-trust exemptions (as the NCAA requires to be legal).

The champions of the top conferences go to the top bowls. Any tournament is going to be viewed as more prestigious than any bowls that are not part of the tournament.

The field will likely have to be smaller than the number of strong conferences, the top bowls will have to lose their traditional tie-ins or the top bowls woven into the tournament in a way that maintains their tie-ins. Either way, the unique reward of the bowl system will be diminished.

The BCS has already eroded some of this by breaking the traditional tie-ins, especially prior to the addition of the national championship game as a stand alone bowl.

How do several leading options fair in light of the rewards to the top conferences?

Old Bowl System

The primary aim of the bowls was originally to provide a reward for then conference champions. This remains to be the case for the major bowls.

BCS

The BCS excels at guaranteeing the top conferences a berth to one of the highly prestigious BCS bowls. This is a solid reward for a team with a couple of losses in a contentious conference battle in a nationally recognized competitive conference and ending up on top.

A Tier Based Plus-One

This design does not add rewards to the champions of the top conferences but does maintain the existing automatic berths. The potential for conference champions to be demoted to a first round game rather than a BCS bowl is mitigate by allowing three teams from a conference to be eligible.

A Flexible Championship System

The BCS bowls not selected for semifinal consideration are maintained as part of this design to allow all automatic qualifying champions a chance at the tournament or their current BCS bowl tie-in.

The only way an automatic qualifying champion outside the tournament would not get their traditional tie-in by is if the Rose Bowl is selected as a semifinal and the other conference failed to qualify for the tournament. This conference champion would still be guaranteed a berth in one of the remaining BCS bowls.

MWC Proposal

This design includes metrics to determine the top conferences on a recurring basis. These conferences would have a guaranteed spot in the tournament or in a single side bowl.

Enhanced Bowl Season

This design guarantees eligibility for the champions of the automatic qualifying conferences, recognizing long term success. It also gives the highest ranked champions (or independent in the top 6) a first round bye, recognizing annual performances.

The Wetzel Plan

Dan Wetzel does not provide any means to single out any conferences in any manner a priori. The top conferences would tend to be ranked higher and better seeded, giving some advantage in the tournament.

Poll

Do the top conferences deserve preferred treatment?

Yes. As is. No changes.

3 votes

Yes, if evaluated every four years.

4 votes

Yes, but not to the point that it excludes others from the title.

17 votes

No. DOWN WITH THE MAN!

17 votes

41 votes | Poll has closed

Postseason Constraint #12: Prevent Unworthy Teams from Having a Chance to Win the National Title

2010-02-27T23:12:33Z

[Editor's note: This is part of a series examining the real world constraints on any proposed postseason design. For the previous entries is is best to start at the introduction of the series. This is derived from pages 88 through 90 of my plan to fix the BCS]

The opposite side of the good teams are getting left out coin is that a wider field will allow teams to participate that really didn't earn an elite spot in the postseason.

Many people feel that teams with two or more losses do not deserve to be in championship consideration. Some believe that teams that don't win their conference should not be in the national championship discussion.

The larger the field the lower the standards become for entry into the tournament. Lower standards mean that the reward of entry into the tournament is diminished.

Expanding the field to 96 is not an option for football.

Old Bowl System

Only the top teams would have a chance to earn the top spot after the bowls. Two loss teams rarely climbed to the top or high enough to threaten an undefeated or one loss team.

Strength of schedule was not considered as strongly twenty years ago as it is today in the polls.

BCS

The BCS errs on the side of limiting the field so this is not an issue for it.

A Tier Based Plus-One

This design would restrict the field to a point that this would not be an issue. A two loss participant would be rare.

A Flexible Championship System

A fixed cutoff allows an arbitrarily large gap between the last two teams selected. This could be interpreted to represent a large consensus that the last team did not really earn the right to participate and would generally be accompanied with a large number of teams claiming they should have been selected instead of that
team.

Using gaps in the standings minimizes the risk of selecting unworthy teams for the last spots filled.

MWC Proposal

Two or even three loss teams would begin to participate regularly in an eight team field and wins over undefeated teams would reinforce the ideas that one game in the postseason is worth two or three in the regular season.

Enhanced Bowl Season

This design would allow teams with three or four losses to participate and success of these teams would demean the value of the regular season games.

The Wetzel Plan

Including all conference champions allows teams with three or four losses to regularly participate. In 2001 North Texas won the Sun Belt with a losing record of 5-6 and would have been in Wetzel's tournament.

Poll

How low should the national championship bar be lowered?

Just enough to allow all teams a path to the title every year.

10 votes

Enough to allow all conference champions to play.

7 votes

None, its fine the way it is.

1 votes

Open the field wide. The more games the better!

1 votes

19 votes | Poll has closed

120 Teams 'til Kickoff - North Texas

2010-02-26T13:00:31Z

We are just starting on March Madness, baseball has just begun, yet my ache for football is just beginning. Spring ball and recruiting are not my cup of tea, and the BCS political machine moves in small steps and results issued after a handful of meetings.

I don't have time to do 120 detailed previews for each team. That would involve actually assessing the incoming talent and loses to the NFL. I really don't think that predictions I have seen in the past based on these factors have produced successful results.

The plain fact is that the same teams that are good are good every year. The bad teams rarely change. Teams sometimes jump out of their place, only to fall back inline the next year. The BCS uses a four year window to evaluate conferences based on:

The highest ranked team in the BCS standings
The computer average of all conference members
The number of teams in the top 25 in the final BCS standings

These are weighted here (in a proprietary manner) to represent the value a team would add to a conference near a BCS critical average of 0.5000 by my modeling of this data.

Think of this as an appraisal of the resent success more than a preview. A simple tease of football fluff to kill some downtime.

First up, the #120 North Texas ~~Eagles~~ Mean Green.

Head Coach: Todd Dodge (Third Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Canalees (First Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Gary Deloach (Third Year)

	2007 (2-10)	2008 (1-11)	2009 (2-10)	Average (0.0833)
BCS Averave	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Computer Average	116.3	119.0	117.5	117.6
BCS top 25	No	No	No	0.0
Score	-.7808	-0.8193	-0.7983	-0.7995

Schedule:

Team	Date
@Clemson	9/4
Rice	9/11
@Army	9/18
Troy	10/23
Kansas State	11/27
Arkansas St.	TBA
Florida International	TBA
UL Lafayette	TBA
@Florida Atlantic	TBA
Middle Tenn. St.	TBA
UL Monroe	TBA
W. Kentucky	TBA

Long Forgotten are the four straight bowl appearances from 2001-2004. Somehow a win over Cincinnati was not enought to imprint them in our memory.

The good news is that there is nowhere to move but up, with a schedule where even slight improvements should allow for a few wins and a move away from the bottom of the pack. Another 2-10 record is not out of the question, but 5-7 could be within reach.

Dominoes: Big East Edition

2010-02-25T13:00:21Z

The mention of conference expansion must send shivers down the spine of every Big East fan from the scars of the last round of expansions and the likely targets on their backs for the next round.

I suppose the Pittsburgh Panther, Syracuse Orange, Rutgers Scarlet Night, and West Virginia Mountaneers fans might get a twinge of cautious optimism that they might be allowed an upgrade by the time the dust settles. I suppose that is half of the Big East and, judging by Sugar Bowl, sales most of the Big East's fans.

If two or three of those teams above leave for greener pastures, how would the Big East respond?

The knee jerk reaction would be to leverage their BCS bid to pick up top teams from the MAC and C-USA that are remaining. The Central Michigan Chipawas, East Carolina Pirates, Memphis Tigers, Southern Miss. Golden Eagles, Central Florida Golden Knights, Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (though that name might bring too many scars), and Marshall Thundering Herd are names that come to mind off the bat.

Of course, if the BIG 10 expands to a nice cozy level they might decide to stay their for a while. This could open a door for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to be a natural fit as an all sport member if NBC decides to cut their payout. (Why NBC doesn't get a contract with a league is beyond me. If NBC signed up to show a Big East game every week, two during weeks Notre Dame is not available to them, this could speed up the process.)

The Big East has eight members, why not go to ten? My favorite expansion option for the Big East does not have to wait until they get picked appart first. This would involve a split between the football schools and non-football schools. Hey, it worked for the MWC and WAC, both in a better spot than they were 10 years ago.

Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen. These would harken back to the independent status of many of these schools. Army and Navy have history as deep (and almost as forgotten) as many Big East historical powers. Annapolis Maryland. West Point New York. I dunno. It just smells like a good fit.

For that matter, dissolving as a football conference is an option that worked for many of these schools prior to the BIg East. Maybe they ask Army, Navy and Notre Dame if they can join their non-confernece.

Poll

What should the Big East do after the next round of conference expansions?

Pick up whover they can and hope for the best

2 votes

Pick up a few good teams now and split into football and non football conferneces

9 votes

Know when to fold them ... VIVA THE RETURN OF THE FOOTBALL INDEPENDENTS!

2 votes

13 votes | Poll has closed