Behind The Net

Jody Shelley vs Ilya Kovalchuk - Who's the better shooter?

2010-09-09T13:00:34Z

6 months ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Kris Letang, right, takes down New Jersey Devils' Ilya Kovalchuk, of Russia, as Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury makes the save during the second period of an NHL hockey game Friday, March 12, 2010 in Newark, N.J. Kovalchuk was awarded a penalty shot on the play. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Let's go back to a familiar chart - Jody Shelley's observed shooting talent vs that of Ilya Kovalchuk:

Just a reminder: shooting talent is the amount by which a player exceeds the expected shooting percentage based on the locations he shoots from. I've only included initial shots at even-strength in this analysis - no rebounds, no power-plays.

Looking at that chart, it seems apparent that Jody Shelley could be a better shooter than Ilya Kovalchuk. The probability is quite low - less than 1% - but Kovalchuk has more than a 5% chance of being a net negative shooter, while Shelley has a similar probability of being a net positive shooter.

How is that possible? Anybody who's ever watched Kovalchuk play knows he's a slick offensive player who can pick a corner as well as anyone in the league, while Jody Shelley is the definition of 'hands of stone' - there might be several million people in the world who can shoot better than he can. Those observations aren't wrong - they just aren't perfectly reflected in the limited number of shots taken by the two players.

So how do we resolve this? First, consider every shooter who 200+ shots over the last five seasons and look at the mean and standard deviation of their shooting talent. Next, we simulate a group of league-average shooters over the same number of shots. This allows us to determine the talent and luck involved in shooting:

	Avg	Std	Pct
Total	6.36	1.53
Luck	6.36	1.03	45
Talent	6.36	1.13	55

So we can now start with an underlying distribution for each player - with a standard deviation of 1.13% - and update it based on how the player did in the five post-lockout seasons. We get the following distributions for Shelley's and Kovalchuk's talent:

Now we have a much different story. When we assume an underlying shooting talent distribution, we get an entirely different story - in this case, the likelihood that Jody Shelley is a better shooter than Kovalchuk is about 1-in-10000. And it's probably lower than that - I binned my results in a way that doesn't really give us precision beyond the fourth decimal place. Regardless, it's clear that Kovalchuk must be a better shooter than Jody Shelley.

Here we can see Kovalchuk's observed performance versus his likely talent:

Kovalchuk's true talent level - as implied by five seasons worth of data - is approximately 10.2%, which is 3.4 standard deviations above the mean of our initial distribution. There's a small amount of uncertainty on that z-score, so it's possible Kovalchuk is just (just!!) three standard deviations above the mean. Either way, Kovalchuk is no worse than the second-most talented shooter in the league, and most likely the most-talented. And there's no question that he's better than Jody Shelley.

Reasonable Expectations: Patrick Marleau 2010-11

2010-09-08T13:00:32Z

More photos » Jamie Squire - Getty Images

3 months ago: CHICAGO - MAY 21: Patrick Marleau #12 of the San Jose Sharks shoots the puck as goaltender Antti Niemi #31 of the Chicago Blackhawks makes a save in overtime of Game Three of the Western Conference Finals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center on May 21, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

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How often does a player go from being maligned on a daily basis and stripped of his captaincy to scoring five of his team's seven goals against the eventual Stanley Cup winner before signing a four-year, nearly $28M contract? Just about never?

Well, that's Patrick Marleau's story. He's always been the same guy - he just hit the biggest streak of bad luck we've seen from just about anyone and now has four good seasons since the lockout. But expectations are also higher for him - are they reasonable?

	GP	G	A	P	Shots	Age
Marleau 2009-10	82	44	39	83	275	30.3
36 Comps	82	44	42	86	268	30.2
Next Season	74	34	32	66	227
3-2-1	79	32	34	66	252
Vukota	78	35	38	73	-

It's pretty unlikely that Marleau crosses the 80-point barrier again next year for just the third time in his career, and 66 points will seem like a huge drop-off from what he's done recently. But, again, a guy crossing over 30 is not one we look to for a breakout season. It's a testament to his abilities that he projects for 30+ goals no matter how we look at him.

Poll

How Many Points will Patrick Marleau have in 2010-11?

Winnipeg Jets: My Expansion Team

2010-09-07T16:27:26Z

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

7 months ago: Boston Bruins' Michael Ryder, left, shoots past Anaheim Ducks' Mike Brown in the first period of a NHL hockey game in Anaheim, Calif., Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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SBN conducted a mock expansion draft with me and James Mirtle as general managers. Not surprisingly, I took Winnipeg, and James took Quebec. Here's my team, with salaries:

#	Player	Pos.	Previous Team	10-11	11-12	12-13	13-14
1	Colin White	D	New Jersey Devils	3	3
4	Josh Harding	G	Minnesota Wild	1.2
5	Michael Ryder	F	Boston Bruins	4
8	Radim Vrbata	F	Phoenix Coyotes	3
9	Roman Hamrlik	D	Montreal Canadiens	5.5
11	Dan Carcillo	F	Philadelphia Flyers	1.075
14	Vernon Fiddler	F	Phoenix Coyotes	1.1
15	Dave Steckel	F	Washington Capitals	1.1	1.1	1.1
18	Adam Foote	D	Colorado Avalanche	1
19	Sean O'Donnell	D	Philadelphia Flyers	1
22	BJ Crombeen	F	St. Louis Blues	0.885
23	Jerrod Smithson	F	Nashville Predators	0.75
26	Shawn Horcoff	F	Edmonton Oilers	6.5	6.5	6	4
27	Mattias Ohlund	D	Tampa Bay Lightning	4	5.5	5	3.75
30	Erik Ersberg	G	Los Angeles Kings	0.75
31	Bruno Gervais	D	New York Islanders	0.9
34	Rob Niedermayer	F	Buffalo Sabres	1.15
35	Karlis Skrastins	D	Dallas Stars	1.65
38	Scott Nichol	F	San Jose Sharks	0.76
39	Brian Rolston	F	New Jersey Devils	5	5
41	Tim Jackman	F	Calgary Flames	0.55	0.55
44	John Scott	D	Chicago Blackhawks	0.5	0.5
45	Drew Miller	F	Detroit Red Wings	0.65
48	Rick Rypien	F	Vancouver Canucks	0.55
49	Sami Salo	D	Vancouver Canucks	3.5
52	Ryan Carter	F	Anaheim Ducks	0.725

A few key notes:

- With the salary cap, expansion teams today won't be anywhere near as bad as expansion teams of the past. You can pretty easily show that a team that does nothing but spend to the cap by signing UFAs will be a playoff bubble team. So we shouldn't expect 29-game losing streaks from our two new entrants.

- There will be plenty of veterans with bad contracts left unprotected in the draft. Presumably Vancouver would have sent me a player or a draft pick in exchange for taking the injured Sami Salo off their hands.

- Cap management was very important to me. I'm still almost $10M under the cap for 2010-11 and I have just $22M allocated next season. There are plenty of NHL teams that are in much worse shape going forward, while this expansion team will have lots of flexibility. If you watched the Jets growing up like I did, you'll know Winnipeg fans are very patient in waiting for success, so I'll be able to dump a lot of these guys at the deadline for picks and prospects instead of chasing a first-round playoff exit.

- What was missing from the draft pool was anyone who might qualify as a good, young player. Josh Harding was probably the best RFA available, and with good reason - why would a team leave discount contracts unprotected?

- We were actually going to draft 30 players each, but by the time we got into the low-20s, there was nobody left worth drafting. I loaded up on a couple of fight-first players in Rick Rypien and John Scott and picked a player I know nothing about (Ryan Carter) to complete the draft.

- Defense is still undervalued by our SBN blog writers. From the players they left unprotected, I was able to assemble what I think is a solid defensive corps. I also picked up several good defensive forwards and two faceoff specialists in Dave 'Stecks' Steckel and Scott Nichol. My PP will probably suck though.

- James and I were nice enough to not collude or trade picks or players.

- I fully intended to draft Martin Biron, but I left it too long, and James closed out the Rangers

- Long Live the Winnipeg Jets!!!!

Poll

How Many Points will this Expansion Team get in its first season?

How Good is Your Power-Play?

2010-09-07T13:00:29Z

Mark Avery - AP

about 1 year ago: Detroit Red Wings' Nicklas Lidstrom, left, of Sweden, and Marian Hossa celebrate Hossa's second goal against the Anaheim Ducks in the second period of a second-round NHL hockey playoff game in Anaheim, Calif., Thursday, May 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

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Skill-testing question: if a team has an above-average power-play efficiency, what's the likelihood that they're actually an above-average power-play?

Let's take an actual example from 2009-10 - the league-leading Washington Capitals (25.2% PP) vs the Detroit Red Wings, who were #2 in the league two seasons ago, but closer to average last year:

	PP%
WSH	25.2
DET	19.2

Washington had 313 power-play opportunities, while Detroit had 307. If we make no assumptions about underlying talent distributions, then the likelihood of Washington's PP being legitimately better than Detroit's is 96%. Do we really believe that?

We already know that you can't assume that an observed result reflects true talent. So we need to regress to the mean. If we simulate the last 22 years of team power-play performance - assuming every team is equally talented - we get a standard deviation of 2.01%. The observed standard deviation is 2.57%, so skill makes up 38% of the total observed performance:

PP%	Stdev	Luck	Skill
17.9	2.57	2.01	1.59
		62%	38%

We can estimate Washington's and Detroit's true talent levels by two different methods - we can simply regress them to the mean by 62%, or we can start from a realistic underlying talent distribution (17.9% average PP%, 1.59% standard deviation) and update the distribution using the observed PP% from 2009-10 via Bayes rule. The results:

PP%	Actual	Estimate
WSH	25.2	20.3
DET	19.2	18.4

Now we estimate that there's only an 80% likelihood that Washington's PP was better than Detroit's. The regressed difference between the teams is eight goals vs 20 before the regression. That seems a bit more reasonable, especially since Washington kept their PP unit together over the last two seasons while Detroit lost Marian Hossa and Mikael Samuelsson.

Of course, we know more about these two power-play units than one year's worth of PP%. Detroit played in a tougher division than Washington, and faced tougher competition generally. It's possible that Hossa and Samuelsson were worth one extra win on the PP alone, but Washington's PP is definitely not eight goals better than Detroit's given the same opponents. The key thing to keep in mind is that even what appears to be the best PP in the entire league might not be much above average.

Survivor Effects: If a Player plays 82 Games this Year, how many will he play next year?

2010-09-03T13:00:38Z

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

7 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Daniel Sedin, left, and Henrik Sedin, both of Sweden, celebrate Henrik's goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on Saturday, Jan. 23, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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A player who plays 82 games in a single season is a very durable one, but the risk of significant injuries is so high in the NHL that we expect him to play a lot fewer games, on average, in the following season:

If a player is under 30, he'll play 73 games, on average, in his next season. If he's over 30, the average is 69 games.

Of course, averages are deceptive here compared to medians. If we look at the distribution of games missed among players 20-29, we can see that most players will play more than 73 games:

In fact, the 50th percentile is 78 games played, and 2/3 of players will play 73 games or more. It's the 5% who missed half the season or more who drag everyone else down. Survivorship in the NHL is actually slightly worse than what I've shown here - some players play 82 games and follow it up with zero games the following season, either because they have an incredibly serious injury (or even die) or go play in a different league. So I've left out all of the zeros in this analysis.

Bottom line: if a player plays 82 games in a season and he's under 30, odds are he'll come very close to playing every game the following season.

How Many Goals will Sidney Crosby score in 2010-11?

2010-09-02T15:06:58Z

More photos » Gene J. Puskar - AP

about 1 year ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Sidney Crosby tries to get a shot past Washington Capitals goalie Simeon Varlamov of Russia in the first period of Game 4 of an NHL hockey second-round playoff game, in Pittsburgh on Friday, May 8, 2009. Crosby's rebound was put in by teammate Bill Guerin for a goal. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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First things first: do not call me a Crosby-hater. That's the last thing in the world that I am. Here's my post-Olympic reaction, and here's where I advocated for him as Rookie of the Year.

Now, apparently there are some Pittsburgh fans out there who think Crosby is going to score 50 goals again this season. Despite being a gifted playmaker, he has no track record of scoring like that. Let's look as his three-year weighted projection:

Season	GP	G	A	P	Sh
2007-08	53	24	48	72	173
2008-09	77	33	70	103	238
2009-10	81	51	58	109	298

3-2-1 Average	75	41	60	101	257

Now it's entirely possible that he stepped up his game and improved his scoring touch last season - he did take a lot more shots than in the past. I found the 29 most-comparable seasons to Crosby's 2009-10 over the last 40 years. Here's how those players did the next season, per 82 games:

Player	GP	G	A	P	Sh	Age
Crosby 2009-10	81	51	58	109	298	22.4
29 Comps	82	52	59	111	298	23
29 Comps Yr+1	82	42	57	99	274	24
Per 77 GP	77	39	54	93	257	23.4
Crosby 3-2-1	75	41	60	101	257	23.4

There were a lot more pure goalscorers in this group than playmakers, so both their goals and assists dropped in the year following their big year. They also played, on average, four fewer games in that next season (hence Crosby's projection per 77 games - if he plays that much, I doubt he'll have as few as 54 assists.) What's clear is that regardless of which projection method we follow, we expect Crosby to score around 40 goals next season. Remember - when a player has a big season, particularly one that's out of line with what he's done before, it's because everything broke right for him. In his next season, we shouldn't expect everything to go his way, and so he's unlikely to put up the same big numbers.

Of course, what we've got here is a mean projection. 20% of Crosby's comparables scored 50+ goals the following season, while half scored less than 40, which should give you an idea of the range of possible outcomes. Sidney Crosby is an amazing player, but you shouldn't put your money on him repeating his 50 goal season.

If Mark Teixeira played hockey, what would have happened after this hit?

2010-09-01T18:35:53Z

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: New York Yankees' Mark Teixeira scores over Los Angeles Angels catcher Bobby Wilson on a hit by Robinson Cano during the third inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, April 23, 2010. Wilson was carried off the field after the play. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Watch the video, then click the poll:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7621457

To my eye, Teixeira intentionally slid past the plate so he could hit Wilson. That deserves an ejection, but of course baseball doesn't work that way.

Poll

What would Mark Teixeira's cheap shot have gotten him in the NHL?

If a guy had 112 points last year, how many will he have this year?

2010-09-01T13:00:34Z

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

5 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left, of Sweden, and Alex Burrows celebrate a goal by Daniel Sedin, not pictured, during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. Henrik Sedin's assist on the goal set a new team record for points in a season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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I'm looking at you, Henrik Sedin. If we look at 115 players who put up roughly similar point totals over the last 40 years, we can see that it's not likely to be 112 again:

Per 82	G	A	P	Sh	Sh%	Age
H Sedin	29	83	112	166	17.5	29.3
Year 0	47	64	111	266	17.5	25.4
Year 1	40	59	99	253	15.7	26.4

Remember - players who do amazing things in one season typically do them because everything broke right for them: only 1-in-5 of our similar group maintained or exceeded his scoring totals the following season. Of course, that group of players has a very different profile from a playmaker like Henrik Sedin. What if we look at other playmakers? Well, we only end up with 18 player-seasons, from a dozen players:

Per 82	G	A	P	Sh	Sh%	Age
H Sedin	29	83	112	166	17.5	29.3
Year 0	28	84	112	248	11.5	25.8
Year 1	31	77	108	256	12.2	26.8

That drop-off doesn't look so harsh - but these players took 50% more shots than Henrik Sedin and were actually underperforming in the shooting department, unlike Henrik, who was vastly overperforming his career 13.1 shooting percentage. If we go back through NHL history, there are very few players who had a season like he just did: Craig Janney and Adam Oates are obvious comps, and Doug Gilmour and a late-model Wayne Gretzky also accomplished similar feats. So when we've got no one to compare him to, what do we do? 3-2-1 projections...

	G	A	P	Sh	Sh%
2007-08	15	61	76	141	10.6
2008-09	22	60	82	143	15.4
2009-10	29	83	112	166	17.5

2010-11	24	72	96	154	15.8

All this is is an average of Sedin's last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1. And since he's turning 30, the projection should probably be slightly more pessimistic. If you're picking Henrik Sedin in a hockey pool, reasonable expectations put him a shade above 90 points. It's possible that he learned to shoot and became a more efficient playmaker at age 29...But it's highly unlikely.

Colorado Avalanche First Half Scoring Chances

2010-08-27T15:44:46Z

Colorado Avalanche First Half Scoring Chances

Amazing work by the tireless Scott Reynolds.

Fan Poll: Which Team will Win the Western Conference in 2010-11?

2010-08-27T13:00:47Z

Darryl Dyck - AP

5 months ago: Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin, left to right, Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff, of Germany, Alex Burrows and Daniel Sedin, of Sweden, celebrate Daniel Sedin's third goal of the game against the Calgary Flames during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada on Saturday, April 10, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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Vote early!

Poll

Who will be the best team in the Western Conference in 2010-11?

Vancouver Canucks

122 votes

Los Angeles Kings

41 votes

San Jose Sharks

90 votes

Detroit Red Wings

49 votes

Chicago Blackhawks

72 votes

Another team. Seriously.

62 votes

436 votes | Poll has closed

Wisdom of Crowds: How Many Points will the Edmonton Oilers finish with in 2010-11?

2010-08-25T13:00:38Z

Click on the poll...

Poll

How many points will the Oilers get in 2010-11

<=59

11 votes

60-64

10 votes

65-69

18 votes

70-74

47 votes

75-79

51 votes

80-84

45 votes

85-89

22 votes

90-94

8 votes

95-99

2 votes

100-104

1 votes

105-109

0 votes

>109

0 votes

>164

11 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Further to: Leafs expectations for 2010-11

2010-08-24T13:01:54Z

More photos » DARRYL DYCK - AP

5 months ago: Calgary Flames' Vesa Toskala, of Finland, is hit by the puck during second period NHL action against the Vancouver Canucks in Vancouver, B.C., on Sunday March 14, 2010. Toskala came into the game after Miikka Kiprusoff, of Finland, was pulled from the game after the first period. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darryl Dyck)

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Yesterday's survey results are in, and the Leafs' mean projection is 82.6 points. That's not an unsubstantial improvement - Toronto finished with 74 points this year, so our wise crowds expect a four-win gain. Let's put that in a table:

	Points%
2009-10	0.451
Final 69 Games	0.486
2010-11 Projection	0.504

If we ignore Toronto's brutal 13-game streak to start the season - and well we should - they were on a 79-point pace. Now the consensus is that they're an 82-83-point team?! That doesn't sound like much of an improvement. Well, I wrote about this last year. Essentially, teams that get off to very bad starts are actually a lot better than they appear. But that poor play is already banked in everyone's mind. So future expectations are based on the poor full-season record instead of the team's apparent true talent level. If Toronto was going to improve on their 79-point pace by nine points, they'd be on the playoff bubble; instead people think they're going to finish 12th or 13th.

Strange, isn't it? Toronto had a bad 13 games while Phil Kessel was hurt and Vesa Toskala was destroying his career, and the outcome is that the Leafs face lower expectations a season later.

Fan Poll: How many points will the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 2010-11 with?

2010-08-23T13:00:50Z

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Maple Leafs Phil Kessel, center, and Tyler Bozak, right, celebrate Kessel's goal during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Toronto on Saturday, March 20, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Because inquiring minds want to know...And I'd also like to put a price tag on the 2011 draft pick the Bruins are getting.

Poll

How many points will the Leafs get in 2010-11?

<=59

14 votes

60-64

11 votes

65-69

25 votes

70-74

34 votes

75-79

59 votes

80-84

95 votes

85-89

105 votes

90-94

84 votes

95-99

22 votes

100-104

4 votes

105-109

1 votes

>=110

13 votes

467 votes | Poll has closed

Francois Beauchemin's cognitive dissonance

2010-08-22T18:14:02Z

Francois Beauchemin's cognitive dissonance

Forget that Beauchemin thinks the Leafs could go far this season; this line really got me:

"We had one of the best finishes to the season in the league and we can build on that."

The Leafs were 3-7-11 after the Olympic break. They had one regulation win in their last 12 games. Not to burst anyone's bubble, but that's probably one of the worst finishes in the league.

Offensive Zone Faceoffs and Eliminating Icing on the PP

2010-08-20T15:13:42Z

Matthew Manor - Getty Images

22 days ago: TORONTO ON - AUGUST 18: Jonathan Huberdeau #12 carries the puck over the wider blue line which was being tested by the NHL during an on-ice session at the 2010 NHL Research Development and Orientation Camp fueled by G Series on August 18 2010 in Toronto Canada. (Photo by Matthew Manor/Getty Images)

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Some of you may have seen my generic analysis from last year of shots for and against following a faceoff. Derek Zone asked me to run the same for power-plays. Here are the results - first, cumulative shot totals per faceoff:

Two things to note: 1) the slope of the line is higher for 5v4, which we'd naturally assume - it's just that much easier to get a shot on the PP; and 2) faceoffs at 5v5 are much more likely to result in a quick shot. That's not surprising either - if you win a PP faceoff, you can control the puck and work it around looking for a better chance (plus with one fewer opponent, you're more likely to win control cleanly.) But you wouldn't work the puck around at even-strength. Here are the instantaneous shot counts:

If you win an offensive zone faceoff at 5v5, whatever advantage you gained is mostly gone after 10 seconds, and it's completely gone after 18 or so. On the other hand, at 5v4, your opportunity rates never converge. Odds are, if the defensive team wins a faceoff, they'll dump it down the ice. You'll lose time going back to get the puck and they'll get a change, and those fresh legs will ultimately reduce your ability to get scoring opportunities.

Now what happens if, as the NHL's rulemakers have suggested, you get called for icing when you're on the PK? If the defensive team ices the puck, they've probably reduced their expected future shots against by about 0.2 shots (you can read that off the first chart - say at 25 seconds). If they get called for icing, the play is short-circuited after about 5 or 6 seconds, and they've only reduced their expected shots against by 0.1 shots. However, they're up for another defensive zone faceoff, which - given a 53.8% win% by the team with the man-advantage - leads to an average deficit of 0.1 shots for them. So by calling icing, we've just cost the team that's a man down 0.2 shots per icing.

We don't have any data on how often the defending team ices the puck on the PK, but let's say they still choose to do it twice per penalty kill. Then getting called for it costs them 0.4 shots per PP opportunity. Overall, we're looking at a 20% increase in shots (and goals) by the team with the man-advantage, or roughly six goals per team per season. (That's literally a 2% increase in offense.) Teams might ice the puck more now, but obviously if there was a cost associated with it, they'd hang on to the puck a little longer or try to put the puck on net instead of just dumping it down the boards. Whatever the outcome, it won't significantly boost league-wide offense.

Dodgers - Rockies, 8/19/2010 - Should Larry Bowa have sent Reed Johnson?

2010-08-19T23:53:30Z

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

22 days ago: Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Huston Street, middle, celebrates after catcher Miguel Olivo, right, tags out Los Angeles Dodgers' Reed Johnson after he tried to score on a hit by Scott Podsednik to end the 10th inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2010. The Rockies won 3-2. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Bottom of the 10th, 2 outs, Dodgers trailing 3-2. Reed Johnson is on first and Scott Podsednik bloops a single to center. Johnson is running on contact and the centerfielder is slow getting the ball back to the infield. Dodgers 3B coach Larry Bowa sends Johnson home. Here's what Larry Bowa and Joe Torre had to say:

Fowler made a perfect throw to Tulowitzki, and the Rockies' rifle-armed shortstop then fired a bullet to catcher Miguel Olivo, who was waiting for Johnson when he got to the plate. Olivo applied the easy tag on the sliding Johnson, ending the game.

"They made two good plays," Bowa said. "If he makes it, it's a good play. If he doesn't, it's a bad play. I take the blame for it. I don't think you guys [the media] have talked to me [about getting a runner thrown out] in three years, so I must be doing all right."

Torre said Bowa's decision was the right one.

"That was the only play for us," Torre said. "They had to make perfect throws, especially the relay. When Bo sent Reed, that is exactly what I would have done. Unfortunately, they made a perfect throw to the plate."

Well, let's think about that in a bit more detail. I watched the replay a few times and it looks like Johnson is approaching 3rd base as the ball is thrown. The breakeven distance for advancing from 3rd on a fly ball is about 250 feet - the ball wasn't hit nearly that far, but Johnson is also running as opposed to starting from a stop. Based on run expectancy matrices, if they'd held him, the Dodgers could have expected approximately 0.5 future runs starting from 1st-and-3rd with two outs. Some of that comes from big innings, so the Dodgers have maybe a 40% chance of scoring the tying run at the very least. So the question becomes...

Did Reed Johnson have a 40% chance of scoring? I'd argue not. Fowler hit the cutoff man, who threw the ball to the catcher, and Johnson was out by about 10 feet. I have a hard time believing that a mediocre runner had a 60% chance of scoring. It might have been a 50-50 situation, certainly not as cut-and-dried as Bowa and Torre make it seem.

The Blaine Rutland theory: 'Young guys don't play defense.'

2010-08-17T21:42:14Z

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Colorado Avalanche right winger Chris Stewart, center, slips past Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jack Johnson, left, to put a shot on goalie Jonathan Quick, right, in the first period of an NHL hockey game in Denver on Wednesday, March 24, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Not that any of you know this hockey sage, but I played beer league hockey with Blaine Rutland years ago, and he was also my roommate for a couple of years. He was born in Moose Factory, grew up in Pembroke, and spent most of the time I knew him drinking and/or watching the Center Ice package in our living room. His main claim to fame is that he was sitting next to Jonathan Cheechoo's parents at a Sharks game, introduced himself, said he was from Moose Factory too, and Cheechoo's parents just shrugged...Everyone's from Moose Factory, I guess...

Blaine also originated the theory that bears his name: "Young guys don't play defense." Derek Zona and Ranger Smurf put that theory to the test this week and found 18- and 19-year-old NHL players severely lacking in the defense department.

EPL Week 1: Territory Data

2010-08-15T22:20:56Z

Nine of the weekend's first ten games have been played, with only one upset so far (Everton losing to Blackburn Rovers.)

Territory Leader	Terr%	Mins Tied	Outcome		Terr%	Mins Tied	Outcome
Chelsea	80.5	6.0	W	West Brom	19.5	6.0	L
Wolverhampton	71.7	37.1	W	Stoke	28.3	37.1	L
Everton	68.8	13.9	L	Blackburn	31.2	13.9	W
Aston Villa	64.2	15.3	W	West Ham	35.8	15.3	L
Man City	62.7	95.2	D	Spurs	37.3	95.2	D
Arsenal	59.4	53.9	D	Liverpool	40.6	53.9	D
Sunderland	58.7	29.5	D	Birmingham	41.3	29.5	D
Blackpool	55.6	16.6	W	Wigan	44.4	16.6	L
Fulham	51.5	95.0	D	Bolton	48.5	95.0	D

Territory-leading teams took 16 points, while losing teams took 7.

More Soccer Passing Analysis

2010-08-13T20:02:40Z

More Soccer Passing Analysis

great stuff here - looks like somebody else found a good use for all the data out there.

EPL: How Controlling Territory leads to Winning

2010-08-13T16:30:38Z

More photos » Clive Brunskill - Getty Images

4 months ago: LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Steven Gerrard of Liverpool is tackled by Frank Lampard of Chelsea during the Barclays Premier League match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield on May 2, 2010 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

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Here's the main reason why I stress the importance of controlling territory in soccer. Territory percentage is essentially a measure of where a team has the ball - it takes the number of completed passes and weights them by the difficulty of completing each pass. The plot below is for the last four seasons of the English Premier League. I've taken the road team's territory percentage in every game while the score was tied and plotted it against their winning percentage - we could have looked at this as a logistic regression, but I'm showing it as bucketed data.

If we look at this data at the season level, we see a very strong correlation between territory percentage and winning percentage:

Of course, a lot of that comes from Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United having been that much better than the rest of the pack over the last four seasons. If we remove them from the sample and look only at games between the other sixteen teams in the Premier League, the r^2 at the season level drops precipitously. What doesn't change is performance at the game level: teams that control passing and territory when the game is tied also end up winning.

One thing is for certain: controlling territory (as you might have suspected) is a true talent at the team level. Here I'm showing a team's territory percentage in even and odd minutes in tied road games:

This is essentially a perfect fit. There's no indication that passing and controlling territory - when the game is tied - has a major luck component to it. There are other ways to verify that, and I'll discuss that in the future. Next time, I'll take a look at how a team's ability to control territory impacts performance in head-to-head matchups.

Behind The Net

Jody Shelley vs Ilya Kovalchuk - Who's the better shooter?

Reasonable Expectations: Patrick Marleau 2010-11

How Many Points will Patrick Marleau have in 2010-11?

Winnipeg Jets: My Expansion Team

How Many Points will this Expansion Team get in its first season?

How Good is Your Power-Play?

Survivor Effects: If a Player plays 82 Games this Year, how many will he play next year?

How Many Goals will Sidney Crosby score in 2010-11?

If Mark Teixeira played hockey, what would have happened after this hit?

What would Mark Teixeira's cheap shot have gotten him in the NHL?

If a guy had 112 points last year, how many will he have this year?

How Many Points will Henrik Sedin get this season?

Colorado Avalanche First Half Scoring Chances

Colorado Avalanche First Half Scoring Chances

Fan Poll: Which Team will Win the Western Conference in 2010-11?

Who will be the best team in the Western Conference in 2010-11?

Vancouver Canucks

Los Angeles Kings

San Jose Sharks

Detroit Red Wings

Chicago Blackhawks

Another team. Seriously.

Wisdom of Crowds: How Many Points will the Edmonton Oilers finish with in 2010-11?

How many points will the Oilers get in 2010-11

<=59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100-104

105-109

>109

>164

Further to: Leafs expectations for 2010-11

Fan Poll: How many points will the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 2010-11 with?

How many points will the Leafs get in 2010-11?

<=59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100-104

105-109

>=110

Francois Beauchemin's cognitive dissonance

Francois Beauchemin's cognitive dissonance

Offensive Zone Faceoffs and Eliminating Icing on the PP

Dodgers - Rockies, 8/19/2010 - Should Larry Bowa have sent Reed Johnson?

The Blaine Rutland theory: 'Young guys don't play defense.'

EPL Week 1: Territory Data

More Soccer Passing Analysis

More Soccer Passing Analysis

EPL: How Controlling Territory leads to Winning