Beyond the Box Score

Shocking News: Mets Looking At Other Catchers

2010-02-09T19:02:14Z

I came across this report from Joel Sherman while doing my hourly scouring of MLB Trade Rumors.

The report outlines how the Mets can still save their offseason, but it slips in there word of the team's failed attempts to re-engage in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about catcher Chris Snyder because, according to Sherman, "The Mets obviously know they are best served with Santos and Josh Thole at Triple-A for depth."

Now, really? They're better served with Omir Santos being in Triple-A rather than the team's everyday catcher... to offer the team depth? Now, certainly nobody has been waltzing around claiming that Met fans won't miss the days of Mike Piazza soon thanks to Henry Blanco and Chris Coste. Pretty much everyone knows that the Mets need catching help. They had their eyes set on Bengie Molina, presumably to improve upon Santos' .290 career OBP, but he presumably didn't want to give up his status as a middle-of-the-order hitter, so he returned to San Francisco.

But frankly, Santos better serves the team by being in AAA simply because that means that he's presumably very far away from the big league team. At least with Thole there's a chance that he gives you a decent on-base percentage. I don't really agree with Sherman's assertion that they sign Rod Barajas to fix the catching situation, because for all of the solid defense and power that he brings to the table, there's a guy who's pretty much shown that he won't be an upgrade on the Santos/Blanco duo at the plate.

It's this kind of situation that makes you wonder why they didn't go harder after, say, Gregg Zaun, if they were so uncomfortable with Santos being the everyday starter in the first place. Ah, the bonanza that has been Minaya and company's offseason.

A Golden Age of Third Basemen?

2010-02-09T18:32:51Z

More photos » Charles Krupa - AP

Browse more photos »

With the exception of Scott Rolen, the early part of the previous decade was a relative down period for the hot corner. Eric Chavez, Corey Koskie, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, Aubrey Huff, Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre were among those that were expected to be stars at the position long-term, but injuries derailed Chavez, Koskie and Blalock, and contact, consistency and defense issues forced Hinske and Huff to new positions while failing to totally maintain their breakout offensive performance.

Only Beltre and Ramirez really played as expected. But Beltre primarily only as a defender; his offensive performance has fluctuated from MVP-quality to league average, mostly closer to the latter. Ramirez, on the other hand, broke out with a monster season before the league figured him out, only to make the proper adjustments and re-emerge as one of the best third baseman in the game.

Other top third base prospects of the day either moved off the position, such as Mark Teixeira and Michael Cuddyer, or simply didn't develop as expected for whatever reason, such as Sean Burroughs and Drew Henson.

The position got some help when Alex Rodriguez moved to the position and Chipper Jones returned from his trip to left field, but more importantly, a major influx of quality young third baseman entered the league in the past five years. Headlined at the top are the superstars, three of the games most recognizable stars: David Wright, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman.

Wright has been among the best players in the game since becoming an everyday player in 2005, he's averaged 5.92 WAR in the past five years. His numbers suffered last year, but most projection system peg him for at least five wins above replacement again in 2010.

Zimmerman finally came into his own as a hitter last season, his bat catching up to his elite glove as he managed to improve his power output while becoming more selective at the plate. Put it all together and he's been worth 4.63 WAR per year in each of his first four full seasons, a number that most projection systems expect him to eclipse by a comfortable amount.

Longoria is the youngest of the group at just 24, but he could end up being the most special player in the group. Combine a sparkling glove with big time power and a developing approach at the plate that's already pretty good, and he's been worth 12.5 WAR over his two seasons with the Rays, despite only playing in 122 games in his rookie season.

What you're looking at here are three of the best young third baseman to enter the game in a long time, three established superstars that excel in all facets, all of whom are 27 or younger, with two guys that won't be 25 for essentially the entire 2010 season.

But if any of these guys falter, there's good reason to believe that the position's depth should make it for it. Rodriguez should stick around at third base for a few more years, and other veterans like Jones, Rolen, Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins,and Michael Young should continue to play the position well through the earlier part of the decade.

More importantly, other young guys have emerged beyond the Wright/Zimmerman/Longoria power trio. Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds are two of the most unique players to come along in a while, and few things would give me more pleasure than knowing that big Panda would be manning the hot corner for most of his career while one of the best hitters in the league was also the game's most prodigious strikeout hitter.

Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andy LaRoche have emerged as solid regulars that could close in on stardom if they can take strides offensively, Kouzmanoff needs to become more patient while LaRoche is still waiting for his power potential to consistently come up in game situations. And there's always Alex Gordon, who really shouldn't be written off just because he initially hasn't lived up to his hype, he was already a solid everyday player before his disappointing, injury-filled 2009 campaign.

That's without even going into the best third base prospects in the minors, such as Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters, Matt Dominguez, Josh Bell, and Lonnie Chisenhall.. Not to mention other guys like Wilmer Flores and Mike Moustakas, along with players that could end up at the position like Tim Beckham, Carlos Triunfel, Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier. There's no lack of potential impact talent at the corner in the coming years, to put it one way.

The hot corner has certainly seen its fair share of stars, but I think that we're looking at the best crop of third basemen in the game as long as I've been alive, probably since the days of Wade Boggs, George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Pedro Guerrero, Craig Nettles and Bill Madlock.

Oh, and while I'm on the topic, did I mention that the consensus top position player, Anthony Rendon of Rice, in college baseball also happens to be a third baseman?

The Pitching DiamondView is here.

2010-02-08T19:55:10Z

The cost of all great combined statistics is both understanding and context. Gross Domestic Product, for example, offers a combined look of various economic measures of consumption, investment, and spending, but overlooks sustainability, quality, and distribution. It's a nice stat that those that understand can glean meaning from, but generally doesn't help the average person understand what is really happening, other than "bigger is better, right?"

Having exhausted what little knowledge my Economics for Administration class and risky use of wikipedia provides, we can look at any statistical approach and see somewhat glaring omissions or oversights in combined one-for-all statistics. Still, the natural human tendency is to look for the one combination of all things known into a single description that tells us everything we need to know about a particular subject. For the NFL, we have QB Rating (ugh), for Physics, string theory, and for social networkers, the still unnamed "# of unwanted comments from ancillary friends per post."

The same need exists for baseball fans. The conclusion I came to after some extended consideration (beer and videogames), is that perhaps the best way to describe some total package of talent is visually, rather than numerically.

Thus, the DiamondView was born.

The Pitching DiamondView tells exactly what kind of pitcher we're looking at.

The DiamondView, as you may already know, is a visual way of describing the classic 5-tool set of hitting, power, running speed, arm strength, and fielding. Combining arm strength and fielding into one point on the graph, the results are something that works for both sabermetricians and the average baseball fan as a single-view tool to understand the type of player he or she is observing. The benefit (and goal), other than looking at the pretty colors, is the ability to look at an unlabled DiamondView and be able to guess which position that player plays. The cost, and why we're here, is the glaring omission of the other half of the game: pitching.

The Pitching DiamondView is this author's attempt to fill that need.

Development

The first step was establishing exactly what needs to be observed of pitchers to determine his "type" while remaining somewhat sabermetrically sound. To my knowledge, there is no "5-tool set" for pitchers, so I had to approach it from the perspective of best data available while capturing the biggest picture possible.

So, what do we need to know?

1. Command: Can this pitcher strike people out?

2. Control*: Can this pitcher prevent walks?

3. Batted-ball: When a pitched-ball is hit, where does it go?

4. Durability: How long can this pitcher last in-game and throughout the season?

*I do realize I'm taking some liberty with the definitions of both Command and Control, but I believe both are intrinsically linked, so I'll explain. For this purpose, I'm using the idea that command is the ability to throw strikes, while control is the ability to stay ahead in the count and keep batters off-base. If this is too controversial, brings my audience to tears, or is a catalyst for torch-bearing baseball purist zombies to tear down my door, I'd be happy but reluctant to change it to some other less alliterative word(s).

The answers to these questions are as follows: we can measure the ability to strike people out with K/9 and the ability to prevent walks with BB/9. Easy enough (see above). Batted-ball is the question of whether the ball goes up (fly ball) or goes down (ground ball), and sure enough, we have a stat for that - Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio (G/F). Durability is an interesting one, because the best measure of what a pitcher can do is by looking at what he just did, so to properly capture starters that go 8 innings and relievers that barely get one, we'll go with the easily acquired Innings Pitched (IP). This obviously overlooks some latent ability of young relievers attempting to get a starting role, but I argue that talent usually rises to the top and starters almost always make themselves known.

The results are: K/9, BB/9, G/F, and IP.

Processing

Visually, the method has already been established with the evolving DiamondView for batters. It takes the four statistics and puts them into two perpendicular axes in an attempt to output a describable "player shape," and it works. We'll stick with that.

For the data, I'm using the award-winning Fangraphs.com database and combining several pages of data for both starters and relievers. The result is a shockingly large combination of data that I've pared down to 222 players from the 2009 season*. Each player then has a percentile fuction applied to his data set that tells us exactly where he ranks in each skill set.

K/9 is arranged top from the top down, with the player(s) with the highest at 100 and the player(s) with the lowest at zero. A negative function is applied to BB/9 and the set is then arranged from least negative to most negative and shows the player with the smallest BB/9 at 100. GB/FB is arranged from biggest to smallest, and the visual result is nice--the better the groundball pitcher, the lower his DiamondView will stretch as it approaches 100. Finally, durability is IP arranged from most to least, with the most prolific and longest-lasting starters at 100 and LOOGYs and one-out relievers closer to zero.**

*For projection purposes (not attempted here), a different data set will be required--probably CHONE. I have yet to see G/F on any projection but believe the ratio is more of a career asset (or liability) and will probably use each player's career number for that point of the graph. Suggestions for this aspect welcome and wanted.

**The visual assumption will be that the larger the durability, the better. Similar to the G/F ratio, the result will be something that tells a story instead of necessarily making a conclusion. Combined with the other stats, the result is something that truly tells us everything we need to know about what type of pitcher we're looking at.

The Fun Part.

Preambles aside, I present to you the DiamondView Composite Pitcher Evaluation. It's a visual representation of the most relevant stats available that tells a relatively complete story of pitcher type. It attempts to answer the questions: "Is he a starter or a reliever? Can I count on him to strike a guy out? Can I count on him not to load up the bases? If I bring him in with someone already on base, will he give up a pop-fly or a ground out?"

For presentation purposes I chose a few players at or near the top of the each metric. Take a look:

AJ Burnett is a decent starter who gets a fair number of strikeouts but tends to walk a number of batters. Compared to his peers, his batted pitches are just as likely to pop up as they are to be grounders.

Derek Lowe is a classic ground ball specialist that, according to 2009 results, rarely gets strikeouts but eats a high number of innings.

Mariano's DiamondView not only shows the value of the presentation for identifying relievers, but his value to the team as well. He strikes a ton of guys out and induces a high amount of grounders--and the last time he walked somebody was probably some grandma while crossing the street (all Yankees are clean-cut good samaritans, remember?).

Rafael Soriano looks much like we would expect--a high powered strike out guy that creates a lot of pop-ups...and home runs.

Zack Greinke is my favorite player in all of baseball and he should be yours too. He strikes out almost everybody and rarely walks anybody--all while going further into the game and pitching more innings than nearly everybody in the league. That command and control comes at a cost, though. He's vulnerable to pop-ups, and in the wrong house, the long ball.

Let me know what you think. I know there has been quite a bit of anticipation for this from both of us. If we can establish the meaning of the visual together and have a shared experience in its interpretation, I think we really have something quite valuable. I look forward to your thoughts and comments. Have at it.

I'd like to thank Satchel Price and Walter Fulbright for their consultation on this project, and to everybody else here at BtB for their continued support. Together, we can all bring a deeper understanding of sabermetrics and make them easier for everybody to understand.

BtB's "Ball On A Budget" Fantasy League - Discuss Participants, Payrolls and Position Eligibility

2010-02-08T19:41:18Z

It would be nice to get the WAR draft started as soon as possible, but we do not have enough people signed up to do all the team payrolls, yet alone sending them to me finished (thanks Zach). I will now open up the draft to all the alternates. Just let me know which team you want and get me data. Here is a link to thread for how to do the payrolls. I will begin adding them as I get them to this location. Finally, we still need 4 more managers to help run the league that do not have to do the payrolls, but will have to do a few posts. Let's get the data done so we can get drafting. I know Sky is just itching to get Jose Guillen.

Also, anyone can feel free to join now and select a team to research.

List of participants, teams selected and status after the jump.

23 teams taken with 8 completed.

Teams that still need to be taken and researched.

Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Brewers, Dodgers

jar75 Manager
Jeff Zimmerman Manager

Zach Sanders Manager

Blicks - A's
Dan Turkenkopf- Pirates - Done
Daniel Berlyn- White Sox - Done
JOHNRR12 Phillies
MattGaul- Yankees
perfectstrat- Giants - Done
philkid3- Rangers
RedRobot8- Mets - Done
Satchel Price- Cubs
SFiercex4- Marlins
Steve Slowinski- Rays
Zach Sanders Mariners-done
DempseysArmy- Orioles
vandystu- Braves
gearshift- Reds

Tommy Bennett - D'Backs - Done

PWHjort - Rockies - Done

grantjg1 - Cardinals

oldjacket - Padres - Done

Sky Kalkman - Royals

WeNeedDavidJustice - Indians

sal007 - Astros

Steven Ellingson - Twins

viktor06 - Blue Jays

MatthewA - Nationals

Andy Hellicksonstine
azruavatar
danielj
erik
Evan_S
fightnirish220
gregorybfoley
Harry Pavlidis
HustlinOwl
omahacov22
OsandRoyals
QuinnTheEzkamo
RangersandMets
sabresrule79080@yahoo.com
Sam Page
vivaelpujols
yosoysean

On February 3, 2010, Deep Focus, Inc. withdrew its application to trademark the term "sabermetrics"...

2010-02-08T19:02:06Z

On February 3, 2010, Deep Focus, Inc. withdrew its application to trademark the term "sabermetrics" for social media consulting services.

Sabermetrics was coined by statistician Bill James, who first introduced the word to readers of his Abstract in March 1980, writing: "Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records." Since that time, sabermetrics has become a ubiquitous part of the baseball landscape at all levels and by players, front office staff, the media, and fans alike. Most major league teams use sabermetrically derived statistics as part of their player evaluations. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America and others who report on baseball refer to sabermetrics and its metrics on a regular basis. Recently James has said that sabermetrics is a "declaration of no ownership of knowledge."

From a press release by the Society for American Baseball Research, whoever they are.

Ramblings on WAR

2010-02-08T01:42:26Z

Ramblings on WAR

The first part of a sorta series on WAR for Viva El Birdos. Really, I'm just going into the theoretical and not really getting too technical with the exact calculations.

Another F-Lop Post

2010-02-05T19:13:04Z

More photos » Rick Scuteri - AP

Browse more photos »

On Wednesday, I wrote about how Felipe Lopez wasn't getting enough attention in comparison to his positional peer, Orlando Hudson. Well, as pretty much everyone knows, yesterday the Twins made an absolutely excellent deal to sign Hudson for $5M over one year.

Now, I'm not going to talk about that signing. Low relative price, consistently solid player, fits absolutely perfectly into their roster's needs. It's your basic good one-year free agent signing.

Rather, I'd like to ask the question: Why the hell does nobody like Felipe Lopez?

A slightly above average defensive second baseman with legitimate offensive upside who's coming off of the second 4.6 WAR season of his career. His reputation doesn't come close to that of Hudson so he has not garnered nearly the same attention.

Now that Hudson has signed for $5M ~~plus incentives~~ (I knew that) on a one-year deal, what is Lopez going to ask for? Something similar to what Xavier Nady signed for (one-year, $3.3M plus incentives)? Because at something slightly less than the bargain price that Hudson signed for, Lopez could very well make Hudson look like an overpayment.

DiamondView 2.010: Los Angeles Dodgers

2010-02-05T16:00:27Z

If you've been paying attention to this series (or are somewhat of a masochist), you know that the 2009 DiamondView series ended with the Los Angeles Dodgers with calls for something a little less in the past and a something a little more in the future, predictive if possible. One thing lead to another, and blammo, the DiamondView 2.010 series was born.

Rather than go straight back to LA, the new series stayed in the NL West and began with the Colorado Rockies, and continued with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Francisco Giants, and the San Diego Padres. To make each of these even better, we invited our favorite writers from each team site to provide guest commentary for each highlighted player, and the combined results have been absolutely fantastic.

It is with that in mind that the final DiamondView stop in the NL West is with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I couldn't be more proud of how this compares to the 2009 version. It really is impressive if you look at both side-by-side. On top of all that sweetness, I am excited to announce that one of my absolute favorite writers on all of SBN, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, is here to offer guest commentary for the Dodgers edition. His comments follow each graphic. Let's begin.

CF - Matt Kemp

Kemp is the envy of mere mortals. He has power and speed, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and topped off his offseason by dating a pop star. He made great strides in 2009, but 2010 looks to be The Year of The Bison, as Kemp moves up the ladder of stardom.

C - Russell Martin

Among the many things lost when the Yankees moved from Yankee Stadium II to Yankee Stadium III was Russell Martin's power. Heading into his second straight All-Star game in 2008, at the previous home of the Yankees, Martin had a career line of .289/.373/.450, with one home run every 38 PA. In the season and a half since then, Martin is a shell of his former self, hitting .253/.358/.331 with a homer every 85 PA. A rebound by Martin is sorely needed by the Dodgers if they plan to win their third straight division crown.

1B - James Loney

Loney has struggled mightily at Dodger Stadium, which has dragged his overall production down into the nearly-unacceptable-for-first-base realm, but on the road he remains a productive hitter (.309/.387/.475 on the road in 2009; .320/.375/.524 career). Fun fact: between August 2008 and September 2009, Loney went 343 plate appearances without hitting a home run at Dodger Stadium.

2B - Blake DeWitt

His best asset is his plate discipline, which was intact (48 walks / 44 strikeouts) in the Pacific Coast League despite his otherwise subpar offensive season. When evaluating his 2009 season, keep in mind DeWitt was optioned to Albuquerque on six different occasions last year.

(ed. - Carroll and Belliard (just signed) will both be competing for time at 2nd)

3B - Casey Blake

Will Blake, coming off a career year at age 35, be able to repeat a 4.2 WAR season? Probably not, but I wouldn't put anything past The Beard®.

SS - Rafael Furcal

I would like someday to be able to tell my grandchildren that I witnessed a healthy full season from Rafael Furcal in a Dodger uniform. Worst case scenario: I can always lie.

LF - Manny Ramirez

In 2010, we will get the answer as to whether Manny's second half decline was due to his hand injury or due to age and/or a lack of fertility medication. At any rate, having Manny in the lineup for 130-140 games will be better than the 104 games he played in 2009. Offensively, the Dodgers will go as far as their outfielders will take them.

RF - Andre Ethier

Ethier's progression as power hitter has been a pleasant surprise, and he has transformed himself from "3.5" (the nickname given to him early in his career, implying he wasn't quite everyday outfielder material) into Silver Slugger. Also, I'm not sure Ethier is as bad defensively as some of the advanced metrics say he is, but perhaps a full season of not having Orlando Hudson hawking every fly ball into short right field will help.

LA Dodgers Team Composite

The DiamondView reminds us of what we already kinda thought: the Dodgers have a lineup that is the absolute upper echelon of teams that can get on base and their power is certainly fertile ground and will stand up against nearly any team. That said, team defense isn't anything to write (or throw) home about, but holy cow look at that base-running--clearly in the getting-outrun-by-the-hotdog-suits territory. Combined with an eventual look at pitching, LA will be aiming for the title yet again, but will be getting tough competition this year from Colorado (again) and increased attention on Arizona will be required. - Justin

Thanks again to Eric Stephen again for his contributions. If you're not familiar with his work, he's the manager and lead writer over at True Blue LA--and it looks like he just announced he contributed to the 2010 Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual. Check it out.

Next up: The DiamondView takes on the AL Central!

Best of Sabermetrics: January 2010

2010-02-05T12:00:39Z

No, I'm not starting another awards project. However, one of the things that a lot of us noticed during the BtB Saber Awards was that it was really hard to remember some of the good work done earlier in the year when it came to nominating articles. I personally went through my entire 2009 twitter archive trying to find good stuff I had linked to.

This year, I'm going to post monthly threads like this where I'd like to ask you (our readership): what do you think were the best sabermetric articles of this past month? These can be research articles, commentaries, primers, new resources, or whatever else. This should make for a nice resource to help folks (like me!) keep current in our reading. And, should we do the Sabers again, this will be a handy way to go back and remind ourselves of some of the important work throughout the year.

I don't want this to be overly formal, but it might be helpful to follow this kind of format when linking to a new article:

Subject line: Article title
Link: [url]
Why: [brief blurb on why you think it's worth checking out]

Thanks in advance!

BtB Sabermetric Writing Awards Results Hub

2010-02-05T02:28:56Z

Here are all of the results posts in one central place:

Thanks again to everyone who helped make this a success!

BtB Sabermetric Writing Awards Results: Best Researcher or Writer

2010-02-04T20:00:23Z

In our final category announcement, we feature the best sabermetric writer/researcher category. Here's the category description:

The best sabermetric writer and/or researcher of the year. Define as you wish, though the individual should be nominated based on sabermetric writing and/or research contributions this year.

We had more nominations in this category than any other category. I frankly expected this to just be a popularity contest, and to some degree it was. But to my eye, the people who were nominated, and the people who rose to the top in the voting, really did outstanding work in sabermetrics this past year--either in research, or writing, or both. We had 18 nominees, so I'll report the rankings of the top third.

6. Sky Andrecheck

Sky started posting at Baseball Analysts this past year and did a tremendous array of work. He specializes in regression analysis, but it's a versatile tool that has a huge array of applications, as Sky demonstrated. What I like most about him is that he asks good questions. While perhaps not as technical as some of his other work, one of my favorite pieces of his from the past year was this commentary on how we can measure player impact on clubhouse chemistry using Milton Bradley as a case study.

5. Max Marchi

Max has excellent technical skills, and upon arriving at Hardball Times in late april put them to tremendous use. His work mined all aspects of the gameday data, but especially focused on fielding data (based on gameday hit location data) and pitchf/x. He was nominated for two other Sabers: Chase-ing the FieldF/x and Catching Sabathia: Jorge’s vs Jose’s way.

4. Dave Allen

Allen, like Marchi, was nominated in two other categories (PitchF/X Detective: Has Bradley's Strike Zone Been Widened, and Run Value by Pitch Type and Location; the latter won the Saber for Best Applied study). Allen joined Baseball Analysts in April and then joined FanGraphs later in the year. He has done some terrific work with spray charts and pitchf/x data, but the thing that stands out most to me is that he does this quality work with absolutely brilliant figures. He really raised the bar: if you wanted to be taken seriously as a pitchf/xer now, you need heat maps. :)

3. Dave Cameron

As I see it, with Dave Studeman largely moving behind the THT paywall (of sorts) with his batted ball reports, Cameron stepped into the role of Sabermetric Communicator this year. Cameron's daily posts range from analysis of the day's news to player analysis to primers to informative Saber 101-type posts. They are concise, readable, and yet do a good job of conveying cutting-edge sabermetric principles to the readers of FanGraphs. Oh, right, and he also still is active at USS Mariner. Cameron was nominated for two article awards, and the FanGraphs blog--which is manages--came a close second to the Hardball Times in the best writing website award. 2009 was a banner year for Dave, and hopefully we get many more to come.

2. Colin Wyers

Colin sort of came out of no where about two years ago at statspeak and almost immediately became widely recognized as one of the best young (I'm assuming he's young, though I don't really know) researchers around, especially in the fields of run estimation and player analysis. He combines that research skill with an exceptionally good ability to explain very complicated concepts in a precise, exact, and often original manner. He is not afraid of controversy, as his take-down of PECOTA and frequent critiques of other writers (especially from BPro) demonstrated...but ultimately, Colin goes where the data take him. And where he goes, the rest of us probably should too.

Colin received three other Saber nominations: When is a Fly Ball a Line Drive?, Databases for Sabermetricians, and Replacement level, again.

And the winner is...

1. Tom Tango

I honestly was surprised to see Tango take first place overall in the voting. But I probably shouldn't be. Tom isn't flashy, but he is one of the few remaining major sabermetric voices still active from the generation that immediately followed Bill James' more or less solo era. And he's also one of the most prolific, playing a significant role in the development or establishment of virtually every major statistic that we use to evaluate players: WAR, wOBA, FIP, WPA, LI, WPA/LI, lwts, Base Runs, Fan Scouting Report, wRC+...the list goes on and on. Perhaps as a result of his role as a consultant for the Mariners, he didn't seem to contribute as many major original research projects in 2009 as he has in the past. Nevertheless, he contributed a large volume of smaller pieces throughout the year, and more importantly played a major role in helping to draw attention to and improve countless individuals' work at his blog. He is very deserving of our final saber award for 2009. Congrats!

Other nominees:

We had a 12 other individuals who received nominations for this category. All contributed in different ways to making our community what it is, and all received significant support in the voting. Let's please take a moment to congratulate them all.

R.J. Anderson
Tommy Bennett
Carson Cistulli
Brittany Ghiroli
Jeremy Greenhouse
Sky Kalkman
Matt Klaassen (devil_fingers)
Erik Manning
Rob Neyer
Eric Seidman
Dan Szymborski
Jeff Zimmerman (Tucson Royal)

And that wraps up the sabermetric awards! Please let me just take a moment to thank everyone who helped us make this a success: the staff of BtB, our guest voters, and most importantly all of you in the community who took the time to submit nominations and vote. Many people dedicated significant time and thought to this project, and I think it ultimately did a terrific job of drawing attention to the best work of the past year. Here's to a great 2010!

Could the 2011 Blue Jays Be Good?

2010-02-04T19:10:12Z

More photos » NATHAN DENETTE - AP

Browse more photos »

Yesterday on FanGraphs, Dave Cameron pointed out that the Blue Jays only have $33M in guaranteed contracts for 2011 (the vast majority of which is hung up on Vernon Wells. Score!), and including arbitration-eligible players Toronto's payroll going into the 2010-2011 offseason could very well be in the $45-50M range. Assuming that ownership doesn't cut payroll by a significant amount, and with a new, apparently very talented GM in tow in Alex Anthopolous, is there a chance that Toronto could field a legitimately good team as soon as next season?

As always, Cameron did a great job of outlining how Toronto has gotten a good deal of payroll flexibility for 2011 and beyond, thanks primarily to the Roy Halladay, Alex Rios and Scott Rolen deals, although he doesn't mention them specifically. Here's a quick look at what Toronto should have in place for 2011 before dabbling in the open market: Brett Wallace at first base, Aaron Hill at second base, Travis Snider and Vernon Wells in the outfield, Adam Lind at DH or in the final outfield spot, and a bevy of young pitchers led by Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Marc Rzepzczynski and Brett Cecil.

The catcher position could potentially be filled by J.P. Arencibia, although he would need to take some major strides given his plate discipline and contact issues. They could retain Edwin Encarnacion for his final arbitration year as well, but he would likely garner too high of a salary to be worth it. Presumably, the team won't be able to tolerate E-5's glove (or lack there of) for much more than a year. Just ask the Reds why they dealt him.

Overall, the majority of the available funds needs to be put into adding a shortstop, catcher, third baseman, and an outfielder, preferably a center fielder so that Wells can be moved to left field, as well as veteran help for the pitching staff. Obviously, it's worth noting that numerous guys who are currently in line to be free agents will sign extensions, and things can change a lot over the course of nearly a year both in Toronto and throughout the league. But Toronto likely won't be a buyer this year, so if anything, they'll be looking to dump free agents-to-be like Lyle Overbay and Scott Downs when the trade deadline comes around.

Assuming the course projected above, in which the team doesn't give up any of its future assets to contend in 2010, let's look at what Anthopolous and company could do come the winter of 2010, if they chose to take a route similar to the one that Baltimore apparently took this offseason: add a few veteran pieces on one-year deals, keep developing the young guys, hope that some lucky breaks will make next season a good one, and plan on really breaking out the year after that.

Looking at the free agent class, the top catchers are Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer, although both are likely to be too costly for the Blue Jays. They could pursue another veteran like A.J. Pierzynski or Gerald Laird, but retaining John Buck or going after a cheaper guy like Gregg Zaun (assuming his option is declined) would likely suffice. Zaun is a guy who's seemingly perpetually underrated.

The Jays likely can't expect a big upgrade at shortstop either without making a trade, as the biggest names beyond the two New York shortstops, who aren't likely to go anywhere. They can retain Alex Gonzalez for $2.5M, and they already have John McDonald signed through 2011 as well. Offense is definitely lacking there, but the best bat with a chance to hit the market, Jhonny Peralta, won't even be playing shortstop next season. The third base class is similar to the shortstop one: a couple big names at the top that are unlikely to hit the market, and aging veterans with issues beyond that. Guys like Brandon Inge or Christian Guzman could be appealing if the asking prices are right.

The outfield and the pitching staff are the places where the Jays have a shot to really improve their roster. The outfield class for 2011 should be solid, headlined by Carl Crawford and ~~Canadian slugger~~ native of Illinois Jayson Werth at the top, and the DH class should also once again be plentiful, with Manny, Thome, Matsui, Guerrero, Burrell, Huff and Ortiz due to hit free agency. If the Jays want to spend big to add another outfielder, or a designated hitter to push Adam Lind to left field, they should be able to do so with ease. If they could get Coco Crisp on a one-year deal to push Wells to left, that could be a good move as well.

Toronto could potentially have another excellent pitching staff in place by 2011, which would likely be the main pillar of the team. After dealing away Roy Halladay, the team presumably wouldn't want to spend big to add an ace like Josh Beckett, Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb or Cliff Lee unless it's a short-term deal, but the market should be flush with options. Ben Sheets and Rich Harden should hit free agency again if they're looking for high-upside innings. Or they could take the middle route, looking at starters like Jorge De La Rosa, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda, solid guys who could give the team a veteran presence and some solid innings, if the injury questions scare them away

It's also worth noting that they could also potentially get some contributions from Kyle Drabek or Zach Stewart if either one of them takes major strides developmentally in the minors in 2010. The bullpen has some good pieces in place in Frasor, Carlson, Janssen, Accardo, Tallet, and Roenicke, and just like this offseason there should be numerous late-inning options on the market, if they choose not to retain Downs.

If the Blue Jays went into 2010 with a lineup of Buck, Wallace, Hill, Inge, Gonzalez/McDonald, Wells, Crisp, Snider and Lind, with a rotation of Romero, Morrow, Marcum, Cecil/Rzepzcynski and one of those free agent arms, who's to say that they couldn't pull out an 85-90 win season if a couple things go right? They could easily fit Inge, Crisp, Gonzalez, and a pitcher into their budget, and Snider and Wallace could help to provide a good deal of the offensive improvement.

All in all, I think that Cameron made a really great point to show that there's reason to be optimistic about what's going on in Toronto. All four of the other teams in the division have taken major strides towards establishing winning ways, and the new management in Toronto has been very impressive this offseason in handling the Halladay deal, as well as making solid moves for Morrow and Buck. The Blue Jays may not have the best farm system, but presumably new management will do a much better job of signing top draft picks than the previous one, and they've already taken major strides in improving their long-term ability to compete.

Of course, the team could also flounder in 2010 and push back their projection window of contention back until Drabek, D'Arnaud, Jenkins, Snider, and company are more established, but it wouldn't be surprising if Toronto took the Baltimore route.

As Cameron said, 2010 may not be the prettiest year in Toronto, but things are really looking up. Toronto could very well be a spender next offseason if Lind, Hill and Romero show that their 2009 performances weren't completely flukes, and they can get some breakout performances from guys like Snider, Wallace, Morrow, Cecil and Roenicke. Toronto is probably still in the worst position of any team in the AL East, but under Anthopolous it appears that their future looks brighter than it has in at least a year.

Now that I'm done with this, I apologize as it got a little lengthy. My bad.

BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Results: Best Sabermetric Research or Writing Website

2010-02-03T19:28:28Z

One of the beauties of the sabermetric community is the ongoing dialog amongst the vast majority of contributors. In that context, the community needs forums to have that dialog, and there's no better forum than the various sabermetric blogs/websites in existence. With that in mind we present the Best Sabermetric Research or Writing Website which was defined as

The best sabermetric blog or website of the year. Define "best" as you wish, though it should be focused on writing and/or research contributions.

Enough babbling by me... your winners are (drum roll please)....

3. The Book Blog

Clearly The Book Blog still houses quality research pieces (see for example MGL's aging study); however it's the discussion in the comments that sets The Book Blog apart from other sites. At some point during the day/week most every heavy hitter (independent of site affiliations) in the sabermetric world makes an appearance in the comments to discuss their work or someone else's. That makes The Book Blog a great place to go pick up methodological ideas as Tango and the commenters do a wonderful job of highlighting both good and bad methodologies in other studies.

2. Fangraphs

Fangraphs stable of writers does a great job of providing timely, quick hitting analysis on transactions, recent games, trends in the sabermetric world, and many other topics. That isn't to say that there isn't significant research going into the articles, just that the authors do a great job of synthesizing all of their information into a concise article that's digestible for even the neophyte saber inclined fan.

1. The Hardball Times

The Hardball Times combines quick hitting analysis via their THT Live Blog with longer research pieces in their "front page" articles. Both of these avenues provide the reader with quality analysis. To me what sets THT apart is the width and breadth of topics that THT covers to include historical pieces, cutting edge sabermetrics, and even branching out into lighthearted humorous pieces. In addition to the articles themselves, THT, much like The Book Blog usually contains further thought provoking discussion within the comments.

Congrats to these websites on a job well done!!!

Clearly this was not an exercise to just find the best websites, but to identify a host of good websites. With that in mind, congrats to the other nominees (listed in alphabetical order)

All 7 of these sites are must adds to your RSS feeds if they aren't already there.

O-Hud Versus F-Lop

2010-02-03T18:54:24Z

More photos » Paul Connors - AP

Browse more photos »

Bad nicknames aside (personally, I like F-Lop...), two fairly solid everyday players remain on the free market, and they both happen to be second baseman: Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Similar to last offseason, there has been tons of talk about potential destinations for Hudson, while Lopez's name hasn't been bandied about with nearly the same frequency. It's compelled me to wonder why.

Now, Hudson is certainly a solid player in his own right, but his 2009 performance was markedly worse than Lopez's, and Orlando's reported asking price is fairly high, while there has not been much talk of what kind of contract Lopez is expecting. I just think it's worth begging the question: Is Lopez a better player than Hudson going forward?

Hudson will be playing the 2010 season at the age of 32, while Lopez doesn't turn 30 until May. Each player has proven to be pretty durable, as each player has played 130+ games in the past five years with the exception of Hudson's 2008, during which he still played in 107 games.

Hudson has consistently been a slightly above average hitter in recent years, coming off a third consecutive season with a wRC+ in the 112-114 range. But his contact rate and ISO have decreased in four consecutive seasons, indicating some decline in his raw skills. CHONE projects him for a 103 wRC+, while Marcel is the most optimistic projection among the ones available at FanGraphs, projecting a 111 wRC+. It seems reasonable to believe that Hudson will be around 3-5 runs above average as a hitter next season over the course of 600 at bats.

Hudson has also a reputation for being a plus defender at second base, but he's posted below average UZR's in two consecutive seasons and three of the past four years, accumulating a -9.2 UZR in the past four seasons. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him at 3 runs below average over 150 games for next season. Combine it all together, and Hudson looks to be about a 2.5 WAR player going forward, a slightly above average everyday player.

Lopez looked like a star shortstop after a breakout season with the Reds in2005, but consistency issues and a mysterious decline in power led him to lose his everyday job with the Nationals after a mid-season deal in 2006. After being released by Washington during the 2008 season, he parlayed a scorching finish with the Cardinals into a one-year signing with Arizona to be Arizona's second baseman. Lopez broke out in a big way, splitting 2009 between Arizona and the Brewers after another mid-season trade.

He posted a .310/.383/.427 line supported by a high .360 BABIP, but he showed major development in his approach at the plate, posting the second best walk rate and best strikeout rate of his career. His BABIP also was only partially luck, as he had a high line drive rate and a low pop-up rate, which indicate that he should have had a .340 BABIP in 2009 according to xBABIP from The Hardball Times. He no longer has the power that helped him to hit 23 HR and 34 doubles in 2005, but he has sufficient gap power and is a solid baserunner. CHONE projects him to post a .324 wOBA, but other projections are more optimistic.

The big thing worth noting is that Lopez appeared to take major strides defensively at second base, posting a +7.8 UZR in 2009. Small sample size warning apply, obviously, and Zimmerman's projections take this into account, projecting Lopez as one run above average at second base for 2010. Lopez posted a 4.6 WAR in 2009, matching his career high from 2005, which reflects the big time upside that he has. Projecting Lopez as about league average offensively, maybe a run or two below average, and one or two runs above average defensively, and you get another approximately 2.5 WAR player for 2010.

Factoring in everything, I see two very similar players in terms of value, one whose value lies more on the offensive side of the spectrum, and one whose value lies more on the defensive side. Lopez likely has more upside if he can maintain his offensive performance from last season though, and his asking price is likely lower than Hudson's as well, considering their reputations. If I had to choose one guy to pursue, it would probably be my boy, F-Lop.

BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Results: Best Online Resource

2010-02-03T16:12:27Z

Thanks to everyone who voted for the Best Online Resource. The category is to encompasses:

Best sabermetric resource website, with emphasis on new sites, or improvements to existing sites made over the past year. Often these are websites that make statistics more readily available to lay users, though other definitions of resources may also be used.

To those of us that spend way to much time pressing Control - C and Control - V on our keyboards or wishing for the master name ID mapping file, these sources are indispensable. They allow researchers and writers to find the numbers they need in nice concise fashion. This past year saw some great advancements and improvements in data manipulation and we are sure to see more in the future.

First, not everyone can place, so I would like to extend a congratulations to the other websites that were nominated (sites are listed in alphabetical order):

Brooks Baseball

Darrell Zimmerman's pitch f/x SQL dump

TexasLeaguers.com Pitch F/X database

WPA Inquirer

I will get to the winners in a second, but I would like thank everyone again for not letting my brother in the top 3. I would have never heard the end. I don't have a ton of sanity and you may have saved what little is left.

3. Joe Lefkowitz's Pitch F/X Tool

Manipulating and dispensing Pitch F/X data was common among the nominations with it it being the main point of 4 of the 7 nominations. Joe's Pitch F/X tool is easy to use and allows the user to exactly the data they need with many options available. Do you need to find out where Tim McClelland calls balls when a right handed pitcher is facing a right handed batter? This is the tool for you. Nice work.

2. Rally's rWAR

When this dataset came out last summer, I must have spent hours looking through it comparing players. The rWAR dataset was first of its kind by using WAR as the data and going so far back in time. It has spawned much debate since its release on topics like best players to helping determine who should or should not be in the Hall of Fame. I limited myself to only voting for one choice in each category and Rally got my vote. Good job.

1. FanGraphs' implementation of UZr, wOBA, wRC, wRC+, and WAR

Fangraphs is becoming the one stop shop for all data. My love for them started when I saw one of there game graphs linked one day:

via www.fangraphs.com

Who can't like the game graphic. But David Appelman never rests and continues to added more and more useful information and this last year was no exception.

How did us fans survive all those years without a place to get wOBA? How was a budding researcher supposed to get his data for UZR projections? Congratulations Fangraphs, you have earned your SABRE and I can't wait to see the next big improvement.

BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Results: Best Commentary Article

2010-02-02T19:00:21Z

And now we turn our attention to the Best Sabermetric Commentary article. Here is the category description:

Short sabermetric articles with fairly minimal research beyond, for example, looking up some numbers in an established resource. These are often (but not always) short opinion pieces providing a sabermetric angle on current events in baseball. The difference between commentaries and applied research is effort and depth. The difference between commentaries and review articles is scope of coverage.

Without further adieu, here are the top placing commentaries from our nominees.

3. Colin Wyers: Replacement level, again.

Okay, now that we're all on the same page, I'll proffer yet another definition of replacement level:

Replacement level is the level of talent at which teams stop competing for your services, and you end up competing for the last handful of open roster spots.

The thing about replacement level is that while everyone seems to have a vague idea of what it means, every specific definition of it seems to be fraught with problems. Freely available talent? It's cheap, but it's not really free, and this has consequences for how teams use it. Minimum level before being guaranteed a demotion? Teams stick with players too long. The performance you'd get if you have to replace your starter? Bench players are typically better than replacement, which results in all sorts of chaining effects.

Colin stepped in with this piece and offered a very tangible, straightforward definition of replacement level that is grounded in a fundamental fact that there are only 25 active roster spots times 30 teams...and more players that can fill those last spots than teams have room to employ.

2. Joe Posnanski: Gimmie a U! A Knee! An S! A Key!

I’ll be perfectly honest: In the pleasant ignorance of my car, I didn’t think it was a tragic trade. In large part, this was because I only had this blurry vision of Betancourt … I had not seen his numbers and I just kind of assumed that Betancourt was still 24 or something, that he had put up decent numbers, he had a little speed, he was sloppy but electric on defense. That was the vision that I had in my mind. That was the impression baseball people had given me. I simply didn’t know any better.

Well, as it turns out — ha ha, funny story here — um, actually, NO. Betancourt is not 24 — he’s 27. He is not in the "shows promise" stage of his career — this is already his fourth season as a full-time player. And when I got to the hotel and actually looked up some numbers, well … I started with his defensive numbers.

If you read the post, this is where it goes to hell. See, this is where Joe went wrong. What he should have done is just take the quotes about Betancourt's fielding ability and treat them as gospel. Instead, he goes and looks at data. And not just any data--good data. And he comes to realize that everything positive that people were saying about the Royals' new SS was just flat out wrong. And in his article, he takes us on a painful (yet somehow funny) ride with him, spiraling deep into the abyss that is Royals fandom as only Joe can.

And the winner is....

1. Dave Cameron: The Marginal Value of a Win

We talked a bit about this a few weeks ago, but the composition of a team’s talent and their relation to their division opponents can have a pretty significant effect on their internal marginal value of a win. A win to the Rays is significantly more valuable than a win to the Astros because of the respective effect of that win on the odds of either team making the playoffs.

Because of where they stand, it makes sense for the Rays to pay the market rate for wins, because that price is lower than the value they’re getting from that win. It does not make sense for the Astros to pay the market price, because the return they will get on those additional wins is below the going rate. If Tampa Bay and Houston pay the same price for the same player, it will be a good deal for the Rays and a bad deal for the Astros.

It's a simple concept, and is one for which I think most casual fans have an intuitive feel. But it's also one that I think a lot of us statheads can forget as we struggle through the intricacies of parsing out a player's projectable surplus value in whatever the latest trade or free agent signing happens to be. The simple fact is that, because they're trying to get those last few wins, a borderline playoff team stands to gain tremendously--in both achievement and actual dollars--from small improvements that would otherwise make little difference for a team if they were a sub-0.500 squad.

This is Dave's second Saber of the day--a testament to the quality of his work, as well as the tremendous following he has gathered at both FanGraphs and USSMariner.

Other Nominees

Please join us in congratulating the other nominees in this category!

Tommy Bennett: Beyond the Daily Boxscore
Joe Gray: Does sabermetrics have a place in amateur baseball?
Rany Jazyrelli: Breaking Point
Matt Klaassen (devil_fingers): Ken Rosenthal, ‘Sabermetric Group Think,’ and the 2009 American League MVP Debate
Will McDonald (royalsreview): Kansas City’s Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman Need to Stop Lecturing, Start Bringing In Better Players

BtB Sabermetric Awards: Best Sabermetric Primer or Review Article/Series

2010-02-02T16:02:20Z

Continuing our series from yesterday announcing our 2009/2010 Sabermetric Award winners (more commonly known, I suppose, as the "Sabers"), we now arrive at the Best Sabermetric Primer or Review Article/Series. Being someone relatively new to the sabermetric community this year, I feel like these articles and reviews offer the most to those who are new to the community. Sure, delving into the valuation of prospects or the run values of pitch types is intriguing and important to the community's continuing understanding of the game we love, it is the role of the various primers to introduce and cultivate a new slew of baseball fans interested in the objective analysis of America's pasttime.

That having all been said, let's first review the category description.

Articles that provide excellent introductions to, or summaries of, important fields of sabermetric research. When published online, these are often, but not always, broken up into series because of their necessary length.

There were six entrants into this category, and I'll reveal and review the top three. Let's begin.

3. Colin Wyers/Sky Kalkman - Databases for Sabermetricians / Saberizing a Mac

Stop me if this sounds familiar. You have a question about baseball, the sort of thing that should be answerable with stats, you think. So you go looking for the stat, but you can't find anyone who computes it the way you want. So you find a site that (maybe) has the raw data you need, copy and paste it into Excel, and bang out a few formulas until you get a result. And all along the way, you've thought: There has to be a better way.

I'm here to tell you that in fact there is—the relational database. And I'm here to help.

I'm no database guru, but I do own a Mac and consider myself smarter than a seventh grader, so I'll volunteer to act as captain of this adventure, and anyone else who's a Mac user and looking to learn how to use databases is free to come along for the ride. I suspect our cycle of learning will look something like:

Someone asks a question.

A bunch of people go looking for answers.

They report back.

We find something that works.

We all implement it.

We celebrate with age-appropriate beverages.

We aim higher and loop back to #1.

Those were the appropriate introductions to a slew of excellent information provided by both Colin and our former BtB overlord Sky on how to build our plain old home computers into powerful sabermetric tools. Colin, through his article, served as my teacher for SQL over the last few months, and though I have not been doing an awful lot of homework, the introduction and brief primer has inspired me to continue working on it when I can. And what Colin introduced, Sky and the community here at BtB implemented so that those at home with Macs could join in on the fun. While the other articles in this set of nominees explained and answered questions, I would bet that this set was the one that inspired the most work and research out of all of us. And for that, we thank you.

2. Alex Remington - Everything You Wanted To Know About...

The world of advanced baseball statistics can be an intimidating place for those of us who slept our way through advanced algebra or haven't been a follower of the Bill James revolution from the beginning.

Still, that doesn't mean that we should feel left out when it comes to another way of understanding and appreciating the game we all love. With that in mind, BLS stat doctor Alex Remington will explore a new advanced statistic each week during the offseason, providing a simple primer for the uninitiated.

And that is exactly what Alex does in his ongoing "Everything You Wanted To Know About..." series, which has served as one of the best introductions to the world of sabermetrics that I have read since, well, I've been introduced to sabermetrics. Quite simply, Alex explains some pretty complicated work, but he does so in an absolutely understandable fashion that does not fly above readers' heads. The formatting of Alex' pieces follow a logical set of questions that most people new to a stat (particularly one with a ridiculous-sounding acronym) would probably ask. And the best part of it all is that the explanations work: they are succinct, get the gist of the statistic in question, and spell it out to the reader accordingly. And ultimately, that's all we want in a primer when all the information we started our baseball knowledge with was batting average and home runs.

(drum roll please)

And your winner of the 2009/2010 Saber for the Best Sabermetric Primer or Review Article/Series is...

1. Dave Cameron - Win Values Series

That’s the beauty of win values – we can express a player’s contribution to his team in ways that are both meaningful and easy to understand. As much as I love WPA/LI, it’s just never going to be something that the casual fan is going to understand without a good bit of explanation. Win values, though – I can tell my mom that Adrian Beltre is a four win player and she’ll understand in 30 seconds. And, without too much more explanation, I can explain that those four wins are worth about $18 million in salary, and so not only is Beltre worth his salary, but he’s actually something of a bargain.

Win Values are a big open door to acceptance of our particular brand of analysis among non-statheady fans, and even within our little insulated community, they’re still a big step forward over the commonly accepted performance metrics of the last few years. However, rather than just telling you that and having you trust us, we figured it’d be a good idea to explain how the win values are calculated and break down each part of the formula for you to see. So, this week, we’ll be looking at the calculations of each part and walking everyone through the steps to create a win value for a particular position player.

That introduction begins a long series covering a step-by-step explanation of Wins Above Replacement that, to date, stands as the first thing to which I would link for those who ask what WAR is good for. The excerpt from Dave's introduction explains clearly why we could all get used to talking about WAR: there is not a value more intrinsic to baseball than the win. Really, it's all we care about, right? It's why we play the game, as a wise man once said in an angry fashion. And Dave brought this idea from the research done in many a mother's basement to the forefront of baseball discussion. We've come a long way in having WAR highlighted in an ESPN.com article on the front page of the baseball section, in only a year's time since the stat was introduced on FanGraphs. I believe Dave's writing style in this series was one of the reasons why this came about. He was able to capture the essence of each step of the WAR calculation and at the same time remain simple for the layman who was just recently introduced. And again, that's all that a primer should aspire to be.

Congratulations Dave Cameron, you are our winner for this category! We'd like to thank all of our nominees, the remaining of which follow in alphabetical order of author's last name.

Michael Jong: Linear Weights: The Positive and Negative (Runs)

Kincaid: Evaluating Pitchers with FIP, Parts 1 and 2

Tom Tango: The Mike Silva Chronicles

I'd like to congratulate everyone on being nominated, much was gained in reading each of these articles. I can certainly attest to the fact that 2009 was a great year to be introduced to the world of sabermetrics, and I hope that 2010 brings about more primers and more fans of objective analysis.

Once again, congratulations to Dave Cameron and Win Values series. For that, here is your Saber.

Quick Note: My apologies to Dave Allen yesterday for not quoting an excerpt from his Saber-winning piece. An oversight and mistake on my part. Do enjoy the Saber though, I hope the award helps.

DiamondView 2.010: San Diego Padres

2010-02-02T12:00:58Z

The DiamondView 2.010 series rolls on. We've looked at the Colorado Rockies, the San Francisco Giants, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the conclusion thus far is that Colorado looks to have another great team while Arizona might surprise a few people this year if Los Angeles descends. That's a big if, though.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This week, we're looking at the San Diego Padres projections for 2010. We've invited Dex from Gaslamp Ball to give us the inside scoop on the Padres starters while we look at how they project in my bright rainbow diamonds of love, lust, and loss. Enjoy!

2B: David Eckstein

Eckstein is the team leader and his personality is a plus. He rates well in any category that you can't actually quantify or provide concrete examples of success. That being said he looks like the only person on the team that is really trying. Usually really talented players make difficult feats look easy. Eckstein makes everything look difficult. 120% effort = 83% results. Man I'm so proud of myself for not using the word "scrappy". Darn.

1B: Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez is coming off a career year. Nobody in baseball is as talented and as boring. He's a gold glover with a good arm and he's not afraid to use it. He's so slow, he'd probably get to first faster if he actively tried to move in the opposite direction.

3B: Chase Headley

Headley is finally being moved back to his natural position at third base with the trade of Kouzmanoff. Offensively he hasn't really been living up to expectations, but maybe that will change this year when he isn't stressing about being out of position and can spend more time in the batting cage.

C: Nick Hundley

Hundley is rebounding from a forearm injury in 2009. He was a bit better with the bat after the injury but it still doesn't seem like the Padres have much confidence in him. Nick's bat leaves something to be desired, but he's been able to help with holding runners. He has a bad habit of letting balls get by that are thrown directly at him.

SS: Everth Cabrera

Everth runs like the wind and seems like he may be an exciting player this year. He has a good glove and a good arm. All the people that swore we were going to miss Khalil Greene's defense quickly forgot about him when Everth arrived. Last year he and Gwynn traded off the leadoff position.

LF: Kyle Blanks

While Blanks is still playing out of position he's being blocked by Adrian Gonzalez at first. Owner Jeff Moorad said he will likely move to Left Field this season. We've only heard good things about Blanks at the plate, but due to a foot injury he missed the latter half of the 2009 season. Blanks hits well but not for as much power as you'd expect from someone who is literally 1/8th ogre.

CF: Tony Gwynn Jr.

Tony Gwynn Jr's batting average is proof that males can only pass along approximately 80% of their genetics to their children. His mother must be terrible with a bat. There is nothing to not like about Gwynn except for the fact that he's not an 8 time batting champion.

RF: Will Venable

Venable looks like he should be a good baseball player, maybe he will be with more consistent playing time. Ex-GM Kevin Towers called him the bright spot in the 2009 season, but I don't remember him ever doing anything to warrant that.

Padres Team Composite

The truth is, the Padres are a team that can't get on base, have very little power, generally can't run at all, and even if they could they can't catch. This is the same issue we see with every single bottom-tier team: every single starter is significantly flawed in at least one tool set.

I'm not sure if there's a better way to rip off the band-aid, but I can at least tell you what's under there before ripping it off. This is not a good team. See? I distracted you while I ripped it off. Does that make it feel any better? Probably not. - Justin

Thanks again to Dex from Gaslamp Ball for the contributions.

Up next: LA Dodgers

BtB Sabermetric Writing Awards: Best Applied Research Article/Project

2010-02-01T16:43:31Z

As we continue our trip through the year's best in sabermetrics as voted internally by Beyond the Box Score and by its loyal readers and fans, we arrive today at the Best Applied Research Article/Project category. Before we move into the voting, let's once again define the category in question.

Research that takes established sabermetric principles and applies them to help understand a specific case (typically a player, a team, a transaction, etc). The difference between novel and applied research is newness of approach and scope of impact.

You'll find that the pieces that follow will work out quite well with regards to this criterion. Keep in mind also how the voting was tabulated, as explained by JinAZ in the first post. Without further ado, let us unveil the top four spots in our inaugural voting for the Best Applied Research Article/Project!

4. Matt Klaassen - God of Little Things 2008

Going back to our original project -- measuring the little things -- we can see that WPA/LI definitely includes small things not included even in wOBA/wRAA. Moving a runner over at the cost of an out does advance a team's cause (in some situations), even if wOBA just sees it as another out. On the negative side of the ledger, wOBA/wRAA also doesn't recognize that grounding into a double play makes two outs -- it's just another failed plaet apperance like any other. WPA/LI recognizes proportionally how much that hurts a team by making two outs and taking a baserunner off of the base.

wRAA is better at measuring a player's raw offensive value, since it eliminates the game-state, base-state, and out state from the equation, things that the player has no control over (in the immediate sense). WPA/LI on the other hand, is very context-sensitive, only equalizing the importance of each PA.

This is the thought process that went into the idea of the "Little Things" that Matt then measures by taking the difference between the approach-sensitive WPA/LI and the entirely context-neutral wRAA. The result is the value of the "Little Things" the player does on the field to help his team win, such as "productive outs," avoiding double plays, and other such factors ignored by context-neutral linear weights. It was a simple, yet elegant design for determining something that is often discussed by sports pundits as being critically important to how the game is played. The 2008 winner was none other than Jack Hannahan, and in this year's rendition, the very bearded Casey Blake took home the award, which is now under the purview of FanGraphs.

3. Nick Steiner - What do stats tell us?

So what did we learn today with this obnoxiously long article? Well I took a pitcher's 10 best and worst starts of the year, in which you'll remember there was an ERA difference of about 8, and found no meaningful differences in terms of what he threw, the velocity/movement of his pitches, where he threw them and when he threw them. I think I've established that there was practically no difference in how he pitched in his good starts compared to his bad starts.

Of course, I hope you read Nick's obnoxiously long article to view what he analyzed via Pitch f/x data about this pitcher's (A.J. Burnett) ten best and worst starts. Nick breaks down Burnett's pitches in terms of stuff, location, selection, and approach, attempting to see the differences between those marvelous and disastrous starts that have made the name "Burnett" synonymous with "inconsistent." Though the conclusion here is not wide-ranging, it is studied fairly thoroughly and has led to more work that suggests, in Nick's opinion, that pitchers may have even less control than DIPS has commonly assumed.

2. Jeremy Greenhouse - Holliday-Bay: Visual Scouting Report 1.0

You can see very distinct sections in Bay's graphs where he excels against both LHPs and RHPs. These pitches have the same velocity and movement as your league average fastball (about 85-95 miles per hour with 5-10 inches of horizontal and vertical movement), which meshes with Bay's reputation as a fastball hitter. Over the past two seasons, Bay has been the fourth best hitter in baseball against the fastball. He’s not as good against curveballs, especially slower breaking pitches. I didn’t note anything remarkable in Holliday’s release point graphs nor his velocity/movement graphs, but Holliday does have interesting pitch splits. He saw 65% fastballs with the A’s and 55% with the Cardinals. In exchange, he saw his slider rate nearly double in St. Louis. The increase in slider percentage might have been part of the reason Holliday found renewed success, as he has been the top hitter in the Majors against the slider over the last two years.

To fully grasp why this paragraph itself was so awesome, one would have to click on the link and view the corresponding graphs. The graphs Jeremy puts together to display the "Visual Scouting Report" are astounding, revealing a treasure trove of information in a format easy to digest (providing you know a little bit about Pitch f/x charts). The analysis of these two premium hitters' tendencies at the plate provided us a more in-depth look at each player's plate discipline, performance against pitch types and platoon splits, and their spray of balls in play. Indeed, this could and should be the future of in-depth hitter analysis, and just the sort of information major league clubs could use in analyzing their own players.

(drum roll please)

And your winner of the 2010 (2009? I can never get the convention for award years correct) "Saber" for Best Applied Research Article/Project goes to:

1. Dave Allen - Run Value by Pitch Type and Location

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/run_value_by_pi.php
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/run_value_by_pi_1.php
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/deconstructing.php
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/deconstructing_1.php

This four-part "series" (really, it's not defined a series per se, but each article was tied together by common themes and was worth its merit in telling the story) done by Dave over at Baseball Analysts revealed a lot of information using Pitch f/x regarding the run value of pitches based on location and pitch type. Dave unleashes the full use of his heat map graphs in this set of articles, displaying heat maps of run values for overall location and location broken down by pitch type and batter/pitcher handedness. Within these charts lies information which Dave deciphers, information that generally follows with our general understanding of how pitches work. At the end of the series, Dave summarizes run values for each pitch type for each set of batter/pitcher handedness combination.

Congratulation to Dave Allen, who is personally one of my favorite writers in the business today. And of course, congrats to everyone else who was nominated. The following are the remaining nominees, in alphabetical order by author:

Justin Bopp: DiamondView

Josh Kalk - Pitch Sequencing

Sky Kalkman - Which is Better Compensation: Prospects or Draft Picks?

Max Marchi - Catching Sabathia: Jorge’s vs Jose’s way

Steve Sommer - Worth the Money?

Dan Turkenkopf - Stealing a run

Again, congratulations to everyone who was nominated, each article was worth every minute of reading we spent on it in 2009 (and beyond). And congratulations to Dave Allen again for winning! Here's your Saber award!

It's also available in "light" form if necessary.

Hope to see more exciting applied research in 2010!

BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Results: Best Novel Research Article/Project

2010-02-01T12:00:31Z

The votes are in, data have been compiled, and it's time to announce the winners of the BtB Sabermetric Writing Awards! We will have a series of seven posts this week, each featuring a different category. As the major emphasis of this project is to celebrate sabermetric writing and research of the past year, and not so much to just crown a specific "winner," we will be drawing attention to several of our top vote-getters in each post while applauding all of the nominees.

As a reminder, these awards were determined by a 50% internal and 50% external vote. Because of the number of BtB authors that were nominated for categories (and thus not eligible to vote in those categories), we opted to expand our internal voting roll with a number of guest voters. These individuals were selected as experts in our field, and we appreciated their input into this process. We thank Mike Fast, KJOK, Dan Novick, Patriot, Eric Seidman, Sean Smith, Dan Szymborski, and Tangotiger for agreeing to cast one of these guest ballots (and no, for the record, they did not vote for themselves!).

First off is the award for "Best Novel Research Article or Project." Here is the award category description:

Original sabermetric research that enhances our understanding of some general aspect of baseball. These studies should help establish new sabermetric principles, metrics, techniques, or perspectives. Think "breakthrough research" when nominating this category.

We had twelve nominees in this category, all of which were examples of some of the best new work done in sabermetrics in 2009. We received a sizable number of links to our voting post simply because it was such a terrific collection of research! In the end, though, several articles did rise to the top in both our internal and external voting. Here are the top four.

4. Matt Swartz - Improving BABIP Estimation

The best way I suggest to approximate BABIP is probably using the 3-year average method, but some of the one-year regressions are useful too. A correlation of .63 between the predicted BABIPs and the actual BABIPs is better than the .45-.55 range of results that any of my one year regressions, Dutton’s new regression, or Tom Tango’s Marcel will get you.

One of the emphases over the past few years around the sabermetric blogosphere is to try to isolate luck from hitting lines. With pitchers, we have fairly well established approaches: FIP, xFIP, DIPS, QERA, tRA, tRA*, etc. But with hitters? There have been a variety of attempts, but the problem is more complex because hitters do have substantial control over things like their batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Matt's article details his development a regression equation that attempts to predict a player's BABIP from historical data. There is more work to be done on the issue. But Matt shows all of his work, and the result is an incremental improvement over what a simple forecasting system like Marcel can do in terms of BABIP estimation. I tend to think that the next great advance in hitter projections will require heavy use of batted ball (and probably hitf/x) data, and Swartz's work could help lay a foundation for such work.

3. Josh Kalk - The Injury Zone

Vertical movement was the second most important and, if you combine horizontal movement, total movement is actually more important than speed. Movement here is created entirely by spin and drag, so if a pitcher isn't quite right it is very hard to get the proper spin on the ball. Vertical movement is likely more important than horizontal because most of the spin applied is backspin (fastball) or front spin (curveball) which makes the move up or down. Large horizontal movement is most often found in sliders, but not all pitchers throw a slider and even those who do don't always produce a large slide with it.

Kalk's was, and to my knowledge, still is, the best attempt to develop a tool that could identify a pitcher injury several pitches before it happens. It uses a combination of pitchf/x input and an artificial neural network algorithm to develop a means of evaluating a player's current performance against his own history and thus identify arm problems. Furthermore, beyond the immediate application of helping you pull a player before he actually breaks, it could also be used to assess severity of arm stress on players, as his reference to C.C. Sabathia demonstrates. Amazing work that absolutely fits the bill as groundbreaking research.

Kalk's article went online on February 17th, 2009. On March 23rd, he removed his pitchf/x player cards from his site, and disappeared--only to reappear on the roster of the Tampa Bay Rays front office. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that this is the article that got Josh hired--though, of course, he did a lot of other tremendous work in the years leading up to this article as well.

2. Mike Fast - Confessions of a Dips Apostate

We have seen that the direction a fly ball is hit has a huge effect on the home run chances for that fly ball and also affects the batting average even if the ball stays in the park. A fly ball hit to the batter's pull field is more than six times as likely to leave the park as a fly ball hit to center or the opposite field, and flyball BABIP improves by over 50 points to the pull field.

We also found that whether or not a batter pulls the ball in the air appears to be a persistent characteristic, and it appears that pitchers may have a similarly persistent but much weaker characteristic in the fly balls they allow. Adding the 2005-6 MLBAM Gameday data to the sample would help detect the pitcher skill, if it exists, for some or all pitchers.

DIPS--or, more specifically, the idea that pitchers have little control over their batting average on balls in play--may be the most radical and simultaneously successful idea to come from the sabermetric movement. It fundamentally changed how we--as fans, analysts, and even members of front offices--evaluate pitcher performances.

The thing about DIPS is that it is, as originally described, an overstated case. Pitchers ultimately do have some repeatable skill to control the outcomes of batted balls...it's just that it's a much weaker effect that batters and, at the level of a single season's data, is swamped out by more random effects. This had been demonstrated before, but Fast's article--which employs gameday data to track outcomes of batted balls--is one of the more straightforward demonstrations of this to date.

1. Victor Wang - Valuing a Draft (part 1 & part 2)

If teams decide to put a a value on draft picks they may receive for a Type A free agent, there are a lot of probabilities they'll need to calculate. Given the uncertainty of off season events, it can be rather difficult in estimating these probabilities. Because of this, I feel that the most reasonable projection for the value of Type A draft picks would be something between $3-5 million. I'll make sure to note this update in any future trade valuations.

Victor exploded onto the scene less than three years ago with a WARP-based look at prospect values published in By the Numbers. It was one of the first quantitative descriptions of prospect value--given in actual surplus dollars saved--I'd ever seen, and immediately changed the detail with which we could evaluate trades involving prospect players. Subsequent work improved the study with the use of better metrics and extended it to lower-quality prospects. With this information in hand, we could judge prospects based on their Baseball America (or Sickels, in later work) ranking, rather than having to make some nebulous projection into the future. Furthermore, by providing surplus dollar values, we could make apples to apples comparisons of how valuable a prospect was compared to a veteran player with a big contract.

Wang has been building upon this work ever since. This year, one of his biggest contributions--and the project for which he wins our first Saber award--allows us to place dollar values on draft picks won as compensation for losses of free agents.

The values were surprisingly high--especially for top-tier picks--and helped explain some of the struggles that some free agents (e.g. Orlando Hudson) encountered last offseason in which teams were apparently reluctant to sign them due to the draft picks they would have to give up. In part 2, Wang revisited the question previously investigated by both Bill James and Rany Jazayerli (at BPro) about differences between high school/college/hitter/pitcher selections in the draft. He found relatively little evidence of massive differences between high school and college players. Nevertheless, consistent with his earlier work, found that elite hitters tended to be dramatically betters selections in early rounds, with many excellent pitchers emerging from later rounds.

Other nominees

While they did not receive the same level of voting support as the above articles, this was an extremely competitive category, and most of our top nominees received considerable support in both the internal and external voting. Here are the rest of the nominees, in alphabetical order by author.

Dave Allen: PitchF/X Detective: Has Bradley's Strike Zone Been Widened

Brian Cartwright: Major League Equivalencies

Jeremy Greenhouse: Controlling the Zone

Adam Guttridge: Guttridge-Wang Trade Model

Mitchel Lichtman (MGL): An Age Old Question

Max Marchi: Chase-ing the FieldF/x

Greg Rybarczyk: 2009 Projections with Hit Tracker

Colin Wyers: When Is A Fly Ball A Line Drive?

Please join me in congratulating all of these authors! Here's to a great 2010!