Beyond the Box Score

The Players Who Have Hit 8th (& 9th) Most Often Since 1919

2012-02-12T15:00:18Z

The past few weeks, I've looked at the players who have hit most often in the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots in the batting order. This post focuses on the 8th spot, which is quite a different beast.

The graphic below shows the players with the most starts in the 8th spot in the lineup, as well as the players who have started in the 8th spot the highest percentage of the time (minimum 400 starts hitting 8th):

Compared to the other batting spots I've covered, the 8th spot is very well-defined. The totals are higher, and the percentages are much higher. There are a sizeable number of hitters that basically never batted anywhere but 8th. In all, 20 hitters batted 8th in at least 90% of their starts; for perspective, just 11 players hit 7th in even 50% of their starts. Only 2 players hit 6th in half of their starts.

Typically, the guys in the graphic above are terrible hitters who nonetheless played regularly because they offered strong defense at an important position (shortstop, 2nd base, or catcher).

Since some modern AL players have spent a lot of time hitting 9th, I also ran the numbers for the 8th and 9th spots combined. I give those numbers, as well as the ones for the 9th spot on its own, after the jump.

Before we look at the 9th spot, though, let's compare the 8th spot to the other parts of the batting order that I've researched. First, let's look at the number of players to have at least 400, 600, & 800 starts at each spot:

Lineup Spot	400+ GS	600+ GS	800+ GS
5th	153	43	7
6th	63	13	2
7th	68	7	1
8th	141	43	18

As you can see, the 8th spot is at least as likely as the 5th spot to produce long-term, stable hitters. At the high end of 800+ starts, there are actually many more hitters in the 8th spot, which indicates that it's easier for a hitter to get locked into the 8th spot for an entire career. (800 games is about 5 full seasons; the top player, Al Lopez, had almost 9 seasons in the 8th spot.)

Now let's look at the bottom-half batting order positions by percentage of games played (this is for players with 400 starts in a given spot):

Lineup Spot	40%+ of GS	50%+ of GS	60%+ of GS
5th	37	11	6
6th	15	2	1
7th	33	11	5
8th	104	87	60

In addition, 33 hitters batted 8th in at least 80% of their starts, something that no player did in any of the other 3 spots. What this means is that the players who batted 8th a lot generally had shorter careers than the guys on the other lists--which makes sense, because 8th hitters are, well, bad at hitting. When they did play, though, they almost never hit anywhere but 8th.

Okay, let's look at the leaderboards for the 8th & 9th spot combined. What I've done is find the combined starts in both spots and then subtracted out starts that a player made in the 8th spot in DH games (post 1973, in an AL park). In other words, this is the list of the 10 players to hit last in the lineup the most, not counting the pitcher.

Al Lopez, 1363 (8th, pre-DH)
Jim Hegan, 1317 (8th, pre-DH)
Roy McMillan, 1190 (8th, pre-DH)
Ozzie Guillen, 1120 (25 8th with no DH, 1095 9th)
Ed Brinkman, 1115 (869 8th with no DH, 246 9th)
Alfredo Griffin, 1060 (328 8th with no DH, 732 9th)
Mark Belanger, 1054 (420 8th with no DH, 634 9th)
Dal Maxvill, 1050 (8th, pre-DH)
Doug Flynn, 994 (917 8th with no DH, 77 9th)
Brad Ausmus, 976 (900 8th with no DH, 76 9th)

Nothing too surprising here, though we get a much better mix of old & new players than in the graphic above. This list could also double as the worst 10 hitters to have long careers since 1919.

Now let's look at the players to hit last the highest percentage of the time (to qualify, a player must have hit either 8th or 9th at least 400 times). The list is pretty much the same as the one in the graphic above, with one notable exception:

Ray Berres, 98.4%
Ray Oyler, 97.3%
Willy Miranda, 96.8%
Johnny Bassler, 96.6%
Rey Ordonez, 96.2% (92.4% 8th with no DH, 3.8% 9th)
Jose Uribe, 96.0%
Dal Maxvill, 96.0%
Moe Berg, 95.6%
Rafael Belliard, 95.2%
Joe Astroth, 95.2%

Rey Ordoñez slips onto the list in 5th place. It's nice to have him there, as he's certainly the preeminent terrible hitter of the late 90's / early 00's. Rafael Belliard, part two, in other words.

Before subtracting out times hitting 8th with the DH rule in place, Ordoñez actually ranked 2nd, right between Ray Berres and Ray Oyler. To put it another way, if you don't make any qualifications, the top 3 players since 1919 in percentage of starts hitting 8th or 9th are all named Ray/Rey.

If you look at just the most times hitting 9th (for non-pitchers), here are the top 10 players. As you'd expect from the above list, Ozzie Guillen is #1:

Ozzie Guillen, 1095
Gary DiSarcina, 853
Bucky Dent, 826
Mike Bordick, 752
Alfredo Griffin, 732
Rick Dempsey, 646
Mark Belanger, 634
Dick Schofield (the younger one), 623
Greg Gagne, 621
Omar Vizquel, 600

These totals compare quite strongly with those for the 5th through 7th spots in the order (see table above), but they drop off quickly. Only 30 hitters have at least 400 starts hitting 9th. This makes sense, of course, since the DH has only been in place for ~40 years and only in one league.

I suspect that if you looked at the batting spots just in the AL since the DH rule was instituted, the 9th spot would be one of the most well-defined batting order positions. Next, here are the players with the highest percentage of starts hitting 9th (among those 30 with at least 400 starts there):

Pat Kelly, 89.5% (520 out of 581)
Gary DiSarcina, 80.0% (853 out of 1066)
John McDonald, 72.4% (418 out of 577)
Tom Veryzer, 65.6% (557 out of 849)
Manuel Lee, 64.4% (499 out of 775)
Billy Ripken, 62.2% (503 out of 809)
Ozzie Guillen, 61.7% (1095 out of 1775)
Bucky Dent, 61.5% (826 out of 1344)
Frank Duffy, 59.0% (459 out of 778)
Pat Meares, 49.1% (454 out of 924)

I'd love to field a team with all 10 of these guys on it. They wouldn't win many games, but when they did win one, man, the other team would feel so bad about itself.

Finally, I had a request to split off the 8th hitters for the NL and the AL in the DH era. So, here are links to the top hitters in the 8th spot in the AL and the NL.

Billy Pierce and Hugh Duffy Inducted into the Hall of wWAR: Ezra Sutton and Hoyt Wilhelm are First Casualties

2012-02-10T17:54:00Z

The Hall of wWAR welcomes Billy Pierce. (image via Wikipedia)

The beautiful thing about the Hall of wWAR is that it is a fluid institution. Just because you're in there one day doesn't mean you'll be in there the next. As the formula is improved, the population of the Hall is adjusted accordingly.

I've made a few tweaks to the formula recently and we had some turnover. But before we honor the new "inductees" (and say goodbye to the old ones), I wanted to talk about the changes I made.

1. WAR/162 and 19th Century Players

John Autin of High Heat Stats emailed me with some questions about WAR/162, the modified version of WAR that projects WAR totals for seasons with shorter schedules. John (rightfully) pointed out that in some cases, players were getting over five times the credit for the WAR the earned (like in 1871 when Ross Barnes earned 2.9 WAR in a 31-game schedule).

After some discussion and experiments, I decided to take John's advice and put a cap on the adjustment. A player's WAR/162 can now be no more than twice his WAR. This affected only seasons that were shorter than 81 games—essentially, 1871–1878).

The following players saw the biggest decrease in their wWAR:

Ross Barnes (–25.1 wWAR)
Cap Anson (–16.8)
Deacon White (–14.9)
Ezra Sutton (–9.2)
Jim O'Rourke (–8.0)
Al Spalding (–5.0)

As a result, Sutton falls below the induction line, so he will need to be replaced. He does, however, now sit close to Hardy Richardson. It was a Richardson/Sutton comparison that John made when he emailed me. That's what sparked this change. Their wWAR difference didn't match up with their relative value.

2. Reliever Baseline

The second fix that I made began with Mariano Rivera. I saw that I somehow left his Wins Above MVP out of my spreadsheet last time around. By adding his 10+ WAM to his already astronomical wWAR total, things just didn't look right. I had to choose one of two things to believe—Mariano Rivera had a better Hall of Fame case than Randy Johnson or Hoyt Wilhelm had to be out of the Hall of wWAR. I decided to raise the relief pitcher induction baseline. That reduced Rivera's other-worldly WAR a bit, but put Wilhelm on the wrong side of induction. He will need to be replaced, too.

Goose Gossage is still comfortably enshrined with 85.1 wWAR/norm (he used to be around 100). Wilhelm is now at 64.5, putting him in line with the likes of Gil Hodges, Ron Guidry an Frank Viola. Not a the Hall of wWAR level, but respectable nonetheless.

3. Complete Catcher Adjustment

For some reason, when I recently applied an additional catcher adjustment (to make up for catchers' lower induction baseline), I only applied it to catchers who appeared in at least 25% of their career games behind the plate. Since I was only applying a relative percentage of the adjustment (based on games caught) anyway, I decided to add the adjustment to every player spent some time primarily as a catcher. As a result, these part-time catchers get a little boost:

Craig Biggio (+2.5 wWAR)
Jim O'Rourke (2.0)
Frank Chance (1.9)
Jimmie Foxx (1.4)

Is there anything Foxx didn't do? He also has 1.1 WAR as a pitcher.

New Inductee #1: Billy Pierce

The bad news for Mr. Sutton and Mr. Wilhelm turns into good news for a pair of new Hall of wWAR inductees. The first is actually a player I was surprised to see miss the cut when I reworked the Hall of wWAR a few months ago—Billy Pierce.

The dominant pitchers of the 1950s were Robin Roberts (58.9 WAR) and Warren Spahn (58.6). Billy Pierce is third with 44.8, a few wins ahead of Early Wynn (40.2 WAR). Pierce's rival Whitey Ford sits in a tie for seventh with Sal Maglie (30.0 WAR). In terms of ERA+, Pierce (128) trailed only Hoyt Wilhelm and Ford (140 ERA+ for each, minimum 1000 IP). Pierce, however, threw about as many innings as Wilhelm and Ford combined (2383 IP to Wilhelm's 1024 and Ford's 1562).

Pierce received plenty of traditional accolades, too. He was a member of seven all star teams (starting three times) and twice received The Sporting News' Pitcher of the Year honor. While he is not an absolute slam dunk Hall of Famer, he was one of the 209 best players by wWAR and therefore gets into the Hall of wWAR.

Billy Pierce
WAR/pos	-1.7
WAR/p	53.5
WAR/tot	51.8
WAR/162	54.2
WAE	19.3
WAM	2.0
wWPA	0.6
wWAR	76.1

New Inductee #2: Hugh Duffy

Duffy—a native of nearby (to me) Cranston, Rhode Island—also squeezes into the Hall of wWAR. One of the keys to Duffy's Hall of Fame induction was his 1894 season.

He hit .440.

The pitcher's mound had been moved back to 60'6" just a year before and Duffy took full advantage. Already a perennial .300 hitter, he saw his slash line in 1892 (50' mound distance) of .301/.364/.410 turn into an 1893 slash line of .363/.416/.461. The remarkable thing? In both seasons, his OPS+ was 125. He was off the charts in 1894, hitting .440/.502/.694 with 237 hits (led the league), 18 home runs (led the league), 51 doubles (led the league), 145 RBI, and 48 stolen bases. He had an OPS+ of 172 and 7.6 WAR.

Duffy could hit—and it wasn't just because of his era. On six occasions, he topped 30 WAR Batting runs. His 7.6 WAR season is joined by three others over 5.0 and another three more over 4.0.

Should he be a Hall of Famer while players like Jeff Bagwell, Alan Trammell, and Dick Allen are not? No. But on the list of egregious Hall of Fame inductions, Hugh Duffy is nowhere near the top.

Hugh Duffy
WAR/pos	49.6
WAR/p	0.0
WAR/tot	49.6
WAR/162	58.3
WAE	16.2
WAM	1.6
wWPA	0
wWAR	76.1

The Ultimate Sports Social Media Job Contest

2012-02-10T17:51:53Z

Hey Beyond the Box Score fans, check out this neat promotion:

Have you ever watched one of those TV shows where from thousands of hopefuls, one star is born? Well, Beyond the Box Score readers, here's your chance to play "starmaker" and help pick the new voice of sports in social media!

XFINITY is looking for the next renowned sports social media star through its Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The winning candidate will serve as the new voice of XFINITY in the sports social media space and go behind-the-scenes at some of the biggest sporting events in 2012, sharing exclusive insights and updates with fans.

From February 9-19, you can review qualified entry videos and vote for the contestant you'd like to see advance to the finals of the XFINITY Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The five entrants with the most votes will advance to the final round of the contest where they will cover one of five premier sporting events the weekend of March 8-11. Fans can head today to Facebook.com/XFINITY and click on the Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest tab to vote for your favorite personality (once per day)!

Will you choose the brainiac with the encyclopedia of stats, the former jock who knows the game inside out, or the corporate type who gets the marketing side of the business? You decide. Vote today at Facebook.com/XFINITY!

Let me know who you vote for!

A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: San Diego Padres

2012-02-09T14:00:40Z

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Ninth in the series, we look at the San Diego Padres. Ranked 2nd overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, but they're stocked in terms of B-rated prospects with 15. In Keith Law's organizational rankings released yesterday, he has them at #1 overall. Here's what KLAW says:

Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain in place.

With the Padres top-ranked system, how long is it going to take before it all clicks?

It's quite impressive that they'd what they were able to address immediately through the Mat Latos trade.

Mat Latos to Reds for:
-1B Yonder Alonso
-C Yasmani Grandal
-RHP Edinson Volquez

Both Alonso and Grandal are set to come up in 2012 (Alonso is expected to be their opening day 1B). In Volquez, they've got a middle-of-the-rotation starter, all this for a future ace in Latos. They've added Carlos Quentin to address their run scoring problems, but will he be a piece they intend to re-sign after this season? Here's what they're looking at for 2012:

New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts

Starting Lineup
1 RF Will Venable
2 3B Chase Headley
3 CF Cameron Maybin
4 LF Carlos Quentin*
5 1B Yonder Alonso*
6 C Nick Hundley
7 2B Orlando Hudson
8 SS Jason Bartlett

Bench
C John Baker*
1B/OF Jesus Guzman
1B/OF Mark Kotsay*
IF/OF Andy Parrino
OF Chris Denorfia

Starting Rotation
1 RHP Tim Stauffer
2 LHP Clayton Richard
3 RHP Edinson Volquez
4 LHP Cory Luebke
5 RHP Dustin Moseley

Bullpen
CL RHP Huston Street*
SU RHP Luke Gregerson
SU RHP Andrew Cashner*
MID LHP Joe Thatcher
MID RHP Ernesto Frieri
MID LHP Josh Spence
LR RHP Micah Owings*

What's really impressive is that the Padres have 3 B+ prospects coming up in the next 3 years: LHP Robbie Erlin, RHP Joe Wieland, and RHP Keyvius Sampson. Their top prospect OF Rymer Liriano is set to come up in the same timeframe, currently 2014.

It was only 2010 where the Padres were in the thick of it up until the last day of the regular season. All 15 of their B-rated prospects are set to join the club by 2014, so while Alonso and Grandal will already have 2 years under their belt, you can see that their window starts sometime in 2014.

Check out FUNGraphs.info or Follow @cobradave

Seattle Mariners Top 12 Prospect Rankings

2012-02-08T19:06:55Z

Tier 1 (4 points): Major League Star -- Number One Starter

Tier 2 (3 points): Stand Out/Above Average Regular -- Number Two/Exceptional Three Starter

Tier 3 (2 points): Solid, Average, Every Day Regular -- Number Three/Solid Four Starter

Tier 4 (1 point): Bench/Below Average Regular -- Borderline Four/Number Five Starter/Relief Pitcher

Seattle Mariners - 32 points

Tier 1:

Jesus Montero: C/1B

Taijuan Walker: RHP

Danny Hultzen: LHP

Tier 2:

James Paxton: LHP

Nick Franklin: SS/INF

Guillermo Pimentel: OF/IF

Tier 3:

Erasmo Ramirez: RHP

Francisco Martinez: 3B

Chance Ruffin: RHP

Phillips Castillo: OF

Vinnie Catricala: 3B

Tier 4:

Chih-Hsien Chiang: OF

previously ranked systems

Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics Top 12 Prospect Rankings

2012-02-06T17:00:43Z

Tier 1 (4 points): Major League Star -- Number One Starter
Tier 2 (3 points): Stand Out/Above Average Regular -- Number Two/Exceptional Three Starter
Tier 3 (2 points): Solid, Average, Every Day Regular -- Number Three/Solid Four Starter
Tier 4 (1 point): Bench/Below Average Regular -- Borderline Four/Number Five Starter/Relief Pitcher

Oakland A's -- 30 points

Tier 1:

A.J. Cole: RHP

Tier 2:

Jarrod Parker: RHP
Michael Choice: OF
Sonny Gray: RHP
Grant Green: OF
Brad Peacock: RHP

Tier 3:

Derek Norris: C
Chris Carter: 1B
B.A. Vollmouth: 3B/1B
Nick Rickles: C
Michael Taylor: OF

Tier 4:

Tom Millone: LHP

Previously ranked systems

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Indians

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Cleveland Indians

2012-02-06T16:00:21Z

Eighth in the series, we look at the Cleveland Indians. Ranked 27th overall by John Sickels, they have 0 A-rated prospects, 3 B-rated prospects, and 18 that are C-rated. Here's what Sickels says about their abundance of C-rated talent:

Indians fans may be discouraged by the large number of C+ grades, but they shouldn't be. While some of those C+s are future role players or relievers, the younger members of the group are high-ceiling guys who are just too raw or far away to get a higher grade just yet, but who could blossom within the next year or two. I'm thinking particularly of Araujo, Sterling, and the group of hitters who were backing them up in the Arizona Rookie League. The 2013 and 2014 lists could see a lot of those guys bumped up into the B-range (or maybe even higher) if they develop properly.

How does this system full of lower level talent affect their window to compete?

Taking a look back at the Indians of the late-2000's, it was just 2007 where they last made it to the playoffs with Cliff Lee/CC Sabathia tandem. The players they've gotten back are still blossoming and hopefully won't look like a total bust as Paul Hoynes from Cleveland.com might suggest. Here's what those hauls brought in:

CC Sabathia to Brewers for:
-Matt LaPorta
-Michael Brantley
-Rob Bryson
-Zach Jackson

Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies for:
-Jason Knapp
-Carlos Carrasco
-Jason Donald
-Lou Marson

LaPorta and Brantley will hopefully live up to their value with more playing time this season; Donald can expand on his 112 wRC+ in 143 plate appearances. Below is what their current roster looks like for 2012.

New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts

Starting Lineup
1 CF Grady Sizemore
2 2B Jason Kipnis
3 SS Asdrubal Cabrera
4 C Carlos Santana
5 DH Travis Hafner
6 RF Shin-Soo Choo
7 1B Casey Kotchman*
8 3B Lonnie Chisenhall
9 LF Michael Brantley

Bench
C Lou Marson
1B/3B Jack Hannahan
IF Jason Donald
OF Aaron Cunningham

Starting Rotation
1 RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 RHP Justin Masterson
3 RHP Derek Lowe*
4 RHP Josh Tomlin
5 RHP Kevin Slowey

Bullpen
CL RHP Chris Perez
SU RHP Vinnie Pestano
SU LHP Tony Sipp
MID RHP Joe Smith
MID LHP Rafael Perez
MID RHP Dan Wheeler*
LR RHP Frank Herrmann

Others
RHP Carlos Carrasco + underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2011
RHP Roberto Hernandez Heredia (aka Fausto Carmona) UPDATE 1/20 - status unclear after he was arrested for identity fraud in the D.R. UPDATE 1/24 - will miss all of Spring Training

There seems to be quite a bit of infield prospects in their system, so it'll be interesting to see what they decide do with Asdrubal Cabrera. If he continues trending up, he can quite possibly for traded for prospects to make room for top prospect Francisco Lindor's arrival in 2015.

The Indians surprised a lot of people staying above .500 through the month of July, finishing at 80-82, and their closest to .500 since their Cliff Lee-led squad in 2008. There's a lot of promise here, but much like their division-mates the Royals and the Twins, they have quite the hill to climb in overcoming the new Detroit Tigers. As 2011 showed, they are best suited to try to win now. With their young squad performing now, they might even want to try to extend or offer new contracts to Choo and Cabrera so they can play through 2013. Would it be crazy to trade Lindor (in a few years) in a package for some players to help win?

Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.

Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball '12 Begins 02/09

2012-02-06T15:00:38Z

If you asked me to pick out a promotional campaign in which I could participate and for which I would seriously vouch, it would be Yahoo!'s Fantasy Sports, especially their baseball options. Turns out, I've been asked to do exactly that, and I couldn't be more proud!

The game opens tomorrow, which I assume means you can start putting together your leagues and drafting -- though if you read this site you might be waiting for player projections. Either way, get ready.

Check it out:

Yahoo! Sports is the leading fantasy provider and home to the #1 Fantasy Baseball game available – all for free! It brings fans closer to the game and players they love with free live scoring, mock drafts, mobile apps, over 80 scoring categories, live and offline draft apps, and tools to manage your keeper league.

Yahoo! Sports now offers the fantasy fanatic an even more competitive way to play, Pro Leagues are here! Join a Pro League for $20 or $100 and compete to win cash prizes. For those who dare to put some skin in the game.

Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball '12 is easy and fun to play for the rookie or veteran fantasy user.

Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball provides fans with top-notch information, resources, and expert advice.

Yahoo! Sports provides pre-draft advice clips to help you draft the best team possible. Fantasy advice is also available throughout the season with bi-weekly video clips and weekly radio coverage on the Fantasy Freaks (every Friday 8pm-10pm ET).

Fantasy baseball is the original social network, it is the way friends stayed connected over America’s pastime no matter where they were, Yahoo! Sports continues the tradition by letting fans talk smack talk, check'in, and chat on newly launched message boards.

Game opens 2/9/12 – get ready to play ball!

Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball supports SBNation for its commitment to furthering America’s hardball obsession. As the #1 Fantasy Baseball game, players can count on Yahoo! to provide all the research, stats, live scoring, video highlights, and mobile apps to make this season the best yet. Game opens 2/9/12 – get ready to play ball!