Bird Watchers Anonymous

Should The Thrashers Be Buyers or Sellers at Trade Deadline?

2010-02-09T12:32:53Z

2 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers defenseman Pavel Kubina (77) checks Florida Panthers left wing Rostislav Olesz (85), of the Czech Republic, as he gets rid of the puck during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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I have been a reader of Tyler Dellow's site Mudcrutch79hockey for years now. We share a common interest in bring some statistical analysis to our favorite sport NHL hockey. After the Kovalchuk trade Tyler wrote this piece arguing that in the short run (the current season) trading away Ilya Kovalchuk was very costly move because it greatly harms the Thrashers chances of making the playoffs. Missing the playoffs costs the organization additional revenue and positive marketing buzz that come with the post-season.

In particular, Tyler references a concept called "marginal points" an argument I first encountered on the site www.baseballprospectuscom. Simply put, the concept goes like this--not all wins are worth the same to a franchise. If it takes 88 points to quality for the post-season (and gain at least two post-season home games worth $2+ million more in revenue) then the last win that pushes a team up from 86 to 88 points is worth far more than a win that takes a team from 84 points to 86 points. It is worth paying something to gain those last two points.

Now if you're the Atlanta Thrashers management you face an incredibly important question--how many points will your current roster of players win? The answer that question is enormously important for the franchise. If the Thrashers without Kovalchuk are just an 84 point team, then the Thrashers should conduct a fire sale and trade away pending UFAs like Afinogenov, Armstrong, Schubert for picks and prospects that will help the franchise contend win a playoff berth next spring or in the future. Keeping those assets and coming up short of the playoffs would be a big mistake. For example, I thought the team should have dealt Bobby Holik back in the spring of 2008 but they kept him on.

On the other hand if the Atlanta Thrashers without Ilya Kovalchuk are really a 86 point team and the playoffs require just 87-88 points, then the team should think long and hard about dealing some picks, players or prospects to add a scorer like Alexei Ponikarovsky or Ray Whitney.

This is one reason why the next three games before the Olympic Break are simply enormous. The Thrashers looked pretty good in the post-Kovalchuk loss to Washington and win against Florida. How they fare against some quality teams out West will be a good measuring stick for what this roster can do.

Waddell has mentioned the favorable home schedule in March--which is nice--but don't win themselves. Almost every team they face will be desperate and nobody is going to roll over and give away 2 points just because they're in Philips Arena. The favorable home schedule only matters if the TEAM is competitive without Kovalchuk.

It is very tough to make an assessment of the Thrashers future based on 5 post-Kovalchuk games. Life is not fair and that is exactly what the task before Waddell, Dudley and Anderson. The Trade Deadline is March 2nd and Atlanta need to know if they are buyers or sellers when trade talks are fast and furious after the Olympics.

After last night's games Club Sport Stats put the Thrashers playoff odds at 36%. Right now it looks like 87 points is the Threshold to qualify for the post-season. This is an unusually low target number in the post-lockout NHL, but the East is so competitive this season and the teams have not really spread out as they usually do by this time of the year.

To get a sense of just how precarious things things are look at the table below. Club Sports Stats projects that 6th place will require 91 points and the Thrashers would need to go 16-8-1 to hit that number so their odds of doing so are just 9%. On the other hand 8th place will likely require 87 points and a Thrasher record of 14-10-1 the rest of the way and the odds are slightly better than 1 in 3 that Atlanta could do that.

East Rank	Odds	Win	Losses	OTL	Point Projection	Odds
6th	7%	16	8	1	91	9%
7th	12%	15	9	1	89	21%
8th	15%	14	10	1	87	36%
9th	17%	14	11	0	86	53%
10th	15%	13	11	1	85	68%
11th	12%	13	12	0	84	80%

And now we see how this short three Western Conference road trip becomes so CRITICAL for the Thrashers. If they were to get zero points in those three contests, that would mean require the team to run off an insane run of 14-7-1 record after the Olympics. If the Thrashers get just 2 points, then they would need a daunting 13-8-1 run which is slighty better. If the Thrashers were to manage to scrap up 4 out of 6 possible points that gives them a much better shot post-Olympics of pulling off a 12-9-1 record need to make the playoffs.

Conclusion: The Thrashers organization will have to make some big decisions about whether to buy or sell at the deadline. The final three games before the break could make one of these options much more likely depending upon how the team performs.

Thrashers Recall Kari Lehtonen

2010-02-07T23:13:25Z

Thrashers Recall Kari Lehtonen

The Thrashers today recalled Kari Lehtonen from his conditioning assignment with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. Nothing to get terribly excited about - it just means Kari's two weeks in Chi-Town are up. It will, however, be very interesting to see how the team handles three goalies.

Thrashers Travel Travails, Team Townhall,Triumph Over FLA

2010-02-07T07:00:39Z

I can only think of one word to encapsulate Thrasher-world on Saturday Feb 6th and that word is "unexpected".

I expected a Thrashers Townhall full of Season Ticket Holders in full revolt. I expected someone might stand up and rip up their tickets and throw them down in disgust. I expected to hear calls for the GM to be fired and new ownership. I expected someone to yell "show him the money!"

Instead I witnessed a spirited and rather honest-back-and-forth between fans, GM and ownership. I heard a surprisingly candid and mature discussion about the state of the team from both fans and management. From the fans, I heard anger and frustration, but also a recognition that their is more than one way to build a hockey team. From management, I heard both the GM and owner take their lumps and admit that "we've made mistakes" but also pledge that "we're here to win hockey games and we're committed to accomplishing that goal." There was a lot less salesmanship and a lot more plain speaking than I expected. [More details on the Townhall coming up below.]

That meeting was followed by an unexpected hockey game. The Thrashers team had lost the night before to the Washington Capitals. Historically, NHL teams struggle in the 2nd of back to back games. In the Thrashers case, their difficulty was exacerbated by the historic snowfall in Washington which caused them to consume 10 hours traveling home to Atlanta. The start of the game against Florida had to be pushed back almost an hour. Given those conditions, I would not have been surprised to see a tired team bereft of their star player produce a stinker effort.

Instead, the team came out with great passion and energy and out-shot and out-worked the opponent. Ron Hainsey fought, Tobias Enstrom and Pavel Kubina pinched in like the ghost of Bobby Orr. Zach Bogosian and Evander Kane were rowdy, and new Thrasher Nicklas Bergfors supplied a beautiful game winner. The players moved around on the power play, and the passing was crisp. Reasoner and Oduya were outstanding on the PK, and Hedberg was up to the task in goal. They played like a like a team. If every hockey game was this exciting, the tickets would sell themselves. It was easily one of the most entertaining games of the season. With the late start, the crowd was all there from the National Anthem and they were prepared to make some noise. The team fed off the nearly full building. It was both startling and exciting at the same time. It was very unexpected.

Now the Thrashers get a couple days off to practice with their two new guys before the face a critical 3 game road trip before the Olympic Break. If they lose all three, their playoffs aspirations are on life support--it is so hard to make up points in March with all of the three point games and falling behind by 6-7 points could be fatal. However, if they get only one win, they're in trouble, but it could still work out favorably. Two wins and they will have set themselves up for the NHL version of March Madness where they battle for one of those last three playoff berths. These next three games in February are incredibly important contests.

Thrashers Townhall Meeting Recap

[As usual I took detailed notes, but unless I use quotes, it is a paraphrase of what was said.]

The fans packed the Hawks Practice court and almost every seat was taken. Season ticket reps lined one wall. On the other wall were senior management of the team and building. When Don Waddell walked in he was accompanied by two owners (Bruce Levenson and Ed Peskowitz) and the CEO of Philips Arena. There was definitely tension in the air.

Waddell began by talking about the arduous travel from DC. They departed via bus at 9 a.m. to Richmond, VA. Grazed a truck on the icy roads where they lost a mirror, reached their plane by 2pm, but had to wait 2 more hours to be de-iced and for weather clearance. The takeoff was a real "white knuckler" and they didn't reach Philips Arena until almost 6pm.

Waddell then shifted to Kovalchuk and did an overview of contract talks. They met with his agent almost a year ago in April. Then, in June, they talked with Kovalchuk at his home about which free agents to target that summer. In July, Kovalchuk said he wanted to wait to see how the team looked before starting talks. Waddell said "I really thought he wanted to stay, so we waited." The team was winning, and in November, Kovy green-lighted talks. Kovalchuk's side asked for 12 years at the cap max of $11+ million and they never budged from that number. The Thrashers countered with multiple offers of different contract lengths and dollar amounts ranging from 7 years to 10 years. Their 10 year offer combined with the money the Thrashers had already paid Kovalchuk in his first 8 seasons, would have added up to a career total of $149 million--which is more money than any player has ever made in a career in the NHL. They offered more money per year than any other NHL player currently makes. Kovalchuk's position was that he felt he deserved the cap max and would wait to free agency on July 1st to see if a team would meet that price.

Once trade talks began the market was "smaller than the number of rumored teams" because everyone knew his contract demands where high enough that they couldn't acquire him and hope that he would sign for less money. A pure rental trend simply doesn't bring as much. Talks really came down to three teams and the offers where not amazing. Their goal was to acquire both immediate help and future considerations. Cormier: Thrashers Rick Dudley and Dan Marr both had him ranked as the #1 prospect in NJ system. Devils refused to part with him for first 24 hours of serious talks, finally relented then they said no deal without him. Oduya: plays big minutes, can not have too many quality defenseman, plays in all situations, signed for several years to reasonable contract--Dudley really liked him as well. Berfgors: can score the puck, young and crafty, will mature with other young talent like Kane.

Change creates new opportunities. It was Ilya's team before--by design--now the door is open for other leaders to step up. "I think the team was ready for a change, not a knock on Ilya, but they always looked at him. Sometimes that was not enough. They're disappointed because Ilya is a good person and teammate and sad to see him go. But they are ready to compete for the playoffs--it was a very determined room on Friday." He then opened it up to questions.

Everybody knew that some questions needed to be brought up and the first guy did not disappoint. He asked Don if he shouldn't step down and let Dudley take over? Waddell said that "I have no intention of stepping down. It is ownership's decision not mine." He said that Dudley is a good evaluator of talent. "I have made some mistakes in the past, but if we had kept Kovalchuk the price was so high that later we would have to choose between keeping either Bogosian or Kane" when it came time for their pay raises. "under a cap system you have to make choices, the pie is only so big and the players understand that too."

The next questioner continued the line of attack by saying, "this franchise can't retain top guys. Going way back we let Staios, Brunette, and Savard depart, when are we going to keep our stars?" Waddell: We agreed that the team did choose to pass on Staios, Brunette and Savard, while Hossa and Heatley made their own decisions to leave.

Q What about the three goalies? Waddell: We're pretty happy with what we have seen this year. Goaltending has not been our biggest problem. Mannino is tearing it up in the AHL. We will not keep 3 goalies at NHL level, not enough starts or practice time to go around. The market for goalie trades is not good though, return will be very modest. [Later another goalie question was asked but I'm going to put both answers here.] 2nd question was basically, "What's the problem with Kari?" Waddell pointed to his lack of dependability and indicated that in the locker room the players no longer feel like they can count on him and perhaps they don't play as hard for him as they do for Hedberg.

Another tough, but good question, came next, "Why does this team play listless half the time? Isn't that the job of the coaching staff to have these guys ready? Waddell: "Of course it is on the coach, but the players also have to take responsibility as well. I watch the games and just like you I ask myself why the slow starts. Unlike you guys I can go down to the locker room and ask the players--I don't always like the answers I get. It is a big concern, we have discussed it a lot. I think we have been better in the 1st period the last time games with the exception of the Carolina game. He made a joke that we should all just keep talking through the 1st "because we will be down 2-0 anyway"--which was prophetic.

Earlier DW had left open the possibilty of making an offer to Ilya Kovalchuk if he reaches the UFA market in July. So someone asked "Why would we even attempt to re-sign Kovy on July 1st if the team wants to head in a new direction? If you go with a new philosophy shouldn't you stick with it?" In his answer Waddell focused on the current Thrashers roster and their potential to compete. He said "I know half you guys in here hate me, so let me put it this way [pause] Rick Dudley thinks we have the talent right now to be a playoff team." [laughter in the room]

Next question was about the identity of the team now. Waddell: We can't just rely on being flashy to win games, neither do we want to try and win every game 2-1--margin of error too small, boring hockey. We've always been offensive minded, but we have made some improvement on the defensive side. Adding Oduya another step in that process. We will score goals without Ilya, but we still need to cut down our goals allowed to win games. Then Waddell tossed out that Valabik had probably injured his ACL and was likely down for the season. "He'll get an MRI on Monday to confirm it, but it doesn't look good."

Next questioner critiqued both Kovalchuk and the sausages--no I'm not making this up. He said Kovalchuk took his helmet off on the bench toward the end of a recent game and looked like he had given up, bad signal from the captain. Also game experience had declined and sausages are smaller. The guy sitting behind me said "I never thought I'd miss Aramark." Waddell tried to make amends to this STH--let's just say that guy is getting a new ticket rep.

Waddell mentioned next season they might offer benefit package with a menu of choices because not everyone wants the same side benefits. [Personally I thought this was a rather creative approach, but it will certainly require work by the staff to keep track of who gets what.]

Another pointed but rational question next. "I've been a STH for many years, tell me why I should renew?" Of all the questions asked the entire night this one proved most troublesome for DW. He began by talking about how a team is not just one individual. Then he said that fans should give the guys still here a chance to show what they can do--they have a lot of pride. Probably no ticket increases next year. We know we have to win and we're doing our best to make that take place. The one year we made the playoffs the crowds were good, right now only hard core fans coming, we think 4,000 disaffected former STH who still watch and come now and then. Rest of Atlanta will only come if we grab their attention. [That last part sounded almost like quote from a blog somewhere.]

I'm going to pause here and say that it seemed to me that Waddell had mentally prepared for all sorts of Kovy related questions and was really caught flat-footed on this one, it was his worst answer of the night in my opinion. As a fan here's what I would have liked to hear Don Waddell say to that person: "We have a PLAN to compete and win. Here is our plan.

Improve our ability identify talent--which we did by adding Rick Dudley and canning our Q scout.
Get younger and avoid declining veterans--which we did with this Kovalchuk trade.
Get players that fit our identity (young, fast and puck skills) and our coach--which we have done over the last year.
Make hard choices and trade away players who don't fit our identity--which we did with Exelby.

We have a plan, but it will not turn around the ship immediately. We have learned from past mistakes and here is the route we have mapped out to win in the future." I think an answer like that would have sold some renewal packages.

Next another tough question "Where are our owners, we see Arthur Blank all the time, where are these guys? We only hear about them suing each other. And why didn't you give Kovy an ultimatum this summer?" Waddell: "The one regret I have is that we didn't get know they would not budge from a cap max back in July. This could have happened a lot faster. I really thought he wanted to stay and that was wrong."

Waddell: As for the owners, being seen is not what it is all about. They take a lot of heat from fans. We ask for support for the team and staff and they do that. They are involved in every decision. People complain about their support for the hockey side, but we just offered more money to Kovalchuk than than they are paying to any NBA player. They are committed to building the team--for example the year we made the playoffs they agreed to add some expensive players. Our DC owners probably attend as many Thrasher games as I do. And then he turned mic over to owner Bruce Levenson.

Bruce Levenson: I'm not Arthur Blank you will not see me down on the bench but I spend almost every 3rd period in Don's box. We have worked together for 6 years. In business you have to work with people you trust and we have have that with him. On the NBA side we changed the GM, we would do that on the hockey side if we felt it was necessary. I've received many requests to fire Don from current and former STH. We could perhaps make some money if we fired him but we trust him. As owners we have made some good decisions and bad decisions. I probably talk to Don 3-4 times a day. I'm not a GM and I'm not a coach, I'm an owner, but I'm not afraid to make a change. On the NBA side we changed the GM but kept our coach and he is now the longest tenure in the East. Our NBA team has improved for six straight seasons. We want sustained success on the hockey side, but we have made more mistakes. But we want to win--otherwise we would not have made an offer for $101 million to a player. You don't do that if you plan on quitting on hockey.

Q Who will lead, who will be captain? Waddell: We have four players with an "A" stick with that for the moment and see who steps up. They have 11 guys on the roster who were captain before in college or in junior hockey. "A lot of potential there." Tossed out that Kubina has been a real "take charge" guy for this team.

Q What about other UFAs on the roster? Waddell: We're been pretty busy with Kovalchuk thing and have possible goalie trade coming up. Kubina--we plan to begin talks with his agent during Olympic break. [After session was over I asked Waddell if they would re-sign Kubina if it meant having 5 quality D who make all make some $? He said yes and he was hopeful that an extension could be worked out.] Waddell said he and Colby had "an interesting conversation" this week and they would talk again over the break--which sounded decidedly less hopeful than his Kubina comments. As for Max, he praised his hard work and willingness to prove himself to the NHL when he could have gotten more money in the KHL. "We will really need his goal scoring down the stretch." [My interpretation: don't invest in a Max jersey folks.]

A final question about ownership and rumors of Thrashers relocation. owner Bruce Levenson took this one: "Everyone wrote the obituary of hockey in Atlanta during the lockout--and here we are 5 years later. We are committed to building a team here. This is one of the largest markets in the USA, I'd rather own a team here than a number of other NHL cities. We wouldn't have made a $101 million offer to Kovalchuk if we planned on bailing on hockey. I live in DC and I remember a game when the Thrashers traveled up to play the Caps. We beat them in their building and Kovy had two goals that night. [Waddell: "Who was the coach that night?" --it was Waddell as coach] It was a Monday night and there was nobody in the building--just a few thousand people. And now the Caps are the hottest ticket in DC. That's what winning can do. I'm good friends with the Caps owner and we talk about this all the time. Just look at the Hawks. When we bought them they were the laughing stock of the NBA. We've turned them around. And now we're trying our hardest to do that on the hockey side.

Final Observations. I was impressed that the hostile questions were pretty rational and on point. Often when people are really angry logic gives way to insults or shouting. The hostile questions were much more civil than I expected. The other thing that really shocked me is just how many people thought Kovalchuk had asked for too much money. I heard a lot of people muttering that they liked him, but he was asking for too much. I thought there would be more "Kovy at any price" people there tonight. Bruce Levenson was much better this time, I would have liked to hear something about the budget for next season when he mentioned that they were committed to competing.

I hope you enjoyed reading this summary. Please forgive whatever mistakes. It's 2 a.m. and I'm totally worn out after putting the rest of my life on "pause" during Kovy Trade Week. Don Waddell looked pretty tired too, at one point he called Evander Kane "Patrick Kane" which caused a few chuckles.

Thrashers Put Out the Cats, Look Like A Hockey Team

2010-02-07T05:12:44Z

More photos » John Amis - AP

2 days ago: Fans react to Atlanta Thrashers' Niclas Bergfors winning goal over the Florida Panthers during the third period of an NHL hockey game, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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This was it: the game the Thrashers needed. It's proof that, given the opportunity, they will play for themselves, and they will play for each other. Ron Hainsey and Zach Bogosian dropped the gloves. Johan Hedberg was fantastic. Colby Armstrong was... Colby Armstrong. And Niclas Bergfors, the new kid, shows us what he's capable of:

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: Zach Bogosian, American Hero.

Looked like a pro out there. Burke and Co. don't know what they're missing. My vote is give the kid the 'C'. He's a gamer, and he's a leader. It's not even a question.

Now, all of this is not to say that the game wasn't without its' minuses. Seven minor penalties? Yes, a couple of them were suspect, but many were avoidable. We're seeing many more little dipsy-doo moves and "nifty" drop passes. High-risk/high-reward plays that backfired against the Capitals on Friday, but worked much better against the Panthers. Picked up on the difference between those two teams? If the Thrashers hope to be a playoff contender, they have to figure out when and where to apply the hot dogging.

Overall, the pluses outweighed the minuses. Given the travel day the team endured, they came out a played a solid game. Outstanding puck movement on the power play - something that's been missing of late. One of the concerns I had steming from the Kovalchuk trade was how would Nik Antropov and Maxim Afinogenov react? Obviously, they're professionals, and they're going to do the job they get paid to do, but when (arguably) the single biggest factor in their playing here has moved on, what happens? The Washington game was difficult for both of them, but tonight was a different story. Max potted the first Atlanta goal, and Nik picked up three assists and a +1 rating. Ron Hainsey was all hustle, even picking up that fighting major, and Pavel Kubina had two assists on the evening.

Thrashers don't have much time to rest on tonight's feel good comback victory. Two days off, and then they head west. Looking ahead this week, the Thrashers have three more games before the Olympic break, and none of them look to be easy:

Atlanta:

Colorado

Minnesota

Chicago

Compare that schedule to that of the Rangers, Flyers, and Lightning - the three teams ahead of Atlanta in the standings:

NY Rangers	Nashville	Pittsburgh
Philadelphia	New Jersey (twice)	Montreal (twice)
Tampa Bay	Vancouver	Boston	NY Islanders

The only games on that grid that don't have a large and immediate impact on the Eastern Conference standings are Rangers/Predators and Lightning/Canucks - all others are the proverbial four-point games. After that, almost a solid month away from the NHL, playing different systems on different teams for different reasons. As I said, this was a game the Thrashers needed - let's hope it's the start of something big.

We Must Be an Old Lady, There's 20 Cats in our House - Panthers at Thrashers

2010-02-06T18:20:00Z

Wilfredo Lee - AP

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	v.

Atlanta Thrashers		Florida Panthers

Philips Arena
7:00PM
TV: (none) Radio: 680 the FAN
SBNation: Game page, Litter Box Cats


Johan Hedberg		Tomas Vokoun
(12-9-4, .916% 2.54)		(19-18-9, .932 2.33)

T-Day +2.

Jump for game notes.

Postmortem: T-Day +1

The Thrashers team that took the ice last night was not an eviscerated shell of a hockey club. In fact, the Thrashers team that took the ice last night showed a great amount of character, work ethic, and passion. At the risk of over-simplifying, It's one thing for a team to lose it's captain. It's another thing for a team to lose (arguably) its most potent and explosive offensive weapon. It's yet another thing for a team to lose the one player that most embodied its identity. The Atlanta Thrashers have lost all of these things, and proved they can still compete. There was, however, just one problem - they happened to be playing the hottest team in the league right now.

	ATL	WAS
Goals	2	5
Shots	45	32
PP	0-3	1-5
Hits	19	15
FO	55%	45%
Blocks	20	12

When a game can be pinned on two very obvious mistakes (both starring our defensemen making some pretty sloppy passes in the offensive zone), I take that as a good sign. These Thrashers can compete. The only question remaining is: will they?

Tim's Notes for the Game

Aaron has it right. Even with Kovalchuk, that game would have been a lost cause. It was interesting to see how the two new Thrashers played, though they hadn't had even a moment to practice with the team. Oh, and there's no practice today, either. (In fact, it'll be interesting to see if the Thrashers manage to make it to the game on time. It's 1pm and, thanks to a snowstorm in Washington DC, the Thrashers are being escorted by snowplows to Richmond.)

The good news is that, after tonight, Oduya and Bergfors will have a chance to practice with the team before the next game. It's pretty rare that players will have to play two games after zero practices with a team, so we'll have to cut them a little slack.

Still, they performed admirably last night against the Washington Capitals. Johnny Oduya logged over 20 minutes of ice time, thanks to an injured Boris Valabik. He looked solid most of the night, minus that one slow reaction to the puck moving into the high slot. I saw him take the puck deep into the offensive zone at least once last night, so it looks like he's already adjusting to John Anderson's system.

Niclas Bergfors managed to get off 4 shots in under 13 minutes of even-strength ice time. Not too shabby. (One shot per 3:15 compares favorably to the team average of one per 7:00 and the forwards' average of one per 4:45. Those are rough estimates...)

So, what can we expect tonight? Well, all four games against the Panthers have been decided by a goal, so I'm going to go out on a limb and say this game will be close. In reality, though, I'm looking forward more to the Town Hall Meeting than to the game. Is that terrible?

I normally don't ask questions at town halls, but I've got a couple I'm itching to ask about Patrice Cormier.

Discuss below, I'll pop in with comments from the Town Hall if there's anything good. Keep an eye on my tweets as well, I'll post pictures there if anything really good happens.

	STATS
57	GP	56
24	W	24
24	L	24
9	OT	8
57	P	56
0.500	P%	0.500
2.54	G/G	2.93
2.74	GA/G	3.16
16.4	PP%	17.2
79.8	PK%	80.8
28.5	S/G	29.8
34.2	SA/G	33.2
50.4	FO%	50.6

Poll

Tonight's Town Hall Meeting...

Game Day: Thrashers at Capitals

2010-02-05T22:19:13Z

Neil Davidson - AP

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~~Tonight's another meeting of two Russian superstars.~~ Tonight your new-look Atlanta Thrashers travel to Washington DC to take on the Capitals. Without Ilya Kovalchuk. I have absolutely no idea what to think.

Guys, writing a game preview at this point is a futile exercise. I don't know what the line combos will be. We know that Niclas Bergfors and Johnny Oduya will play. They will wear their old numbers (18 and 29, respectively.) Outside of that, I simply don't know what to say.

I'm creating this topic so we have a place to discuss the game. I probably won't be watching live (I usually let it run for about 30 minutes on DVR so I can fast-forward through the commercials... sorry, sponsors...) so you'll hear from me after the game. And, I assume, the rest of the BWA writers.

Game's at 7. Go Thrashers!

Poll

The Thrashers will lose to the Capitals by...

Kovalchuk Trade: More Day After Analysis

2010-02-05T17:12:25Z

Last night I published my immediate reaction to the Kovalchuk trade. Twelve hours later everyone (including myself) has had a bit more time to digest this deal. Chris Vivlamore has also published a full transcript from his talk with Don Waddell that provides more detail on the perspective of Thrashers management team. I'll quote from this interview below as I consider some key questions.

Did the Thrashers get good value?

Jon Fischer of In Lou We Trust had this reaction:

Basically, the Devils just traded a talented defenseman who has been underperforming after signing his big contract with the team in the past summer (Oduya), a rookie forward who has hit the wall in the worst way and hasn't been able to get back on track in over a month (Bergfors), a prospect center who's been suspended for elbowing a player in the face and had upside of a two-way center to begin with (Cormier), and a first round pick that will be late anyway. All this for one of the best pure snipers in hockey. Lou Lamoriello rules.

Pierre Lebrun of ESPN had this reaction:

As for Atlanta, I doubt Waddell could have done better under the circumstances. Kovalchuk was going to walk as an unrestricted free agent on July 1; the Thrashers had to not only get something in return for their most important asset but also do it while not pulling the plug on their chase for a playoff spot. That's a balancing act, and acquiring a top-four blueliner in Johnny Oduya and a decent second-line winger in Niclas Bergfors to help the team right now was paramount.

So which is it?

Did the Thrashers receive talent that is of equal value to Ilya Kovalchuk in his prime? Absolutely not. Was any team offering them talent equal to Kovalchuk in his prime? Absolutely not. To get full value the Thashers needed to make this trade in the summer of 2009 or even the summer of 2008.

Did Don Waddell take the best offer? Who knows. Unless we learn what the other finalists were peddling we simply have no way of knowing. Certainly DW took the offer he liked the best. For myself, I really wish Atlanta had received a 1st line scoring forward or prospect in return, instead the best piece here is the defenseman Oduya--a position of some depth for the organization. If the Devils advance to the Eastern Finals the draft pick will be in the bottom four of the 1st round. The Thrashers record with late 1st round picks (Jim Slater, Alex Bourett, Daulton Leveille) is very discouraging.

On the other hand, if you're cynical, you might say that since the Thrashers defense is locked into place for the next several seasons all they have to do is find offense--and any rookie hockey fan can read the G-A-PTS to identify the scorers--so hard can it be to fill in the offensive holes, right?

What is lost?

There are some big losses with this trade:

The team can no longer market an appealing star player to fans.
The team will take another blow to fan enthusiasm.
Season ticket base will probably get even smaller this summer.
The team will miss out of the rest of Ilya Kovalchuk's offensive production.
The Atlanta Thrashers franchise is once again branded with a giant "loser" label among fans here and in other cities.
The Thrashers will likely have to pay the "loser's premium" to get top UFA to sign here.

What has been gained?

The losses entailed in the Kovalchuk trade are easy to recognize and list off. In contrast, I think what has been gained might be less obvious to most fans.

The Thrashers avoid the decline years of Ilya Kovalchuk. Ilya Kovalchuk relies on his raw speed to generate most of his even strength scoring chances. Someday he will lose a step of that speed and when he does he will be a much less useful offensive player. For example, Sergei Fedorov used to rely on his speed for offense. Fedorov was a consistent point-per-game NHL scorer and then at age 34 he suffered a big decline. After 33 he never averaged more than .66 points per game--and yet he received a big salary. Realistically, I think Fedorov is a comparable player to Kovalchuk and Ilya probably has about 6 elite years left in him and once the speed declines the fall could be steep. Fedorov was a great two way player who could still help at both ends of the ice after his decline, when Kovalchuk slips he will become a real liabilty, an average offensive player with lousy defense.

The Thrashers avoid making a big cap mistake. In any sport with a salary cap the key to winning in the regular season is getting the most bang for your buck. It is very difficult to do that when a team pays a single player 20% of their maximum possible payroll. Lidstrom in his prime was probably worth that much, but in my opinion Kovalchuk is not. Kovalchuk stats are inflated because he plays the easy minutes (regularly leads all NHL forwards in PP minutes, receives relatively favorable shift starts in the Offensive Zone). His stats would take a significant hit if he played more hard minutes like say Ryan Getzlaf is doing this season.

The trade unblocks some wasted talent. The Thrashers have four pretty good puck-moving defenseman in Enstrom, Bogosian, Kubina and Hainsey. Because Kovalchuk played nearly every minute at the left point on the PP and only Enstrom has received any substantial PP ice time. And yet the Thrashers are paying Hainsey and Kubina for their offensive skills--so that was wasted money and wasted talent. Now all four of the Thrashers top 4 D should get their crack at playing on the Power Play now. Salmela's offensive skills were also larged wasted in Atlanta and his trade really opens a roster spot for Arturs Kulda to step up to the NHL level next year. On a so-so Chicago Wolves team, a team where most players are even or slightly plus, Kulda was been leading the entire AHL with a +19 last time I checked. (He has also benefited from playing with Chelios all seasons.)

The Thrashers now have an opportunity to become a different kind of team. This has been the Ilya Kovalchuk Show since Hossa departed. This has been a wide-open high-risk team for the last 8 years. Both Don Waddell and Coach Anderson prefer the up tempo style, even though that is a very expensive route for a poor team to travel. I don't expect the Thrashers organization to embrace defense without major changes in the front office or behind the bench. In the short run though the focus will really be on the TEAM and not just relying on Kovalchuk to carry the offense. Everyone must score and everyone must play defense--now that's something I can embrace. Don Waddell intimated the same thing in his talk with Vivlamore: "This team has to take a different identity. We’ve been building around one player for a long time now. We need to build this around a team. I think this gives us an opportunity to do it." This is a big test for Coach Anderson. Can his system still produce offense without a superstar in the lineup?

Who is to blame?

I wrote on Twitter that I really dislike the blame game. Fans always want a scapegoat. But Grossman and Kovalchuk thought he deserved $11 million per season and the Thrashers thought he deserved $9-$10 million. I'm NOT going to call one party "greedy" and I'm NOT going to call the other party "cheap"--grownups sometimes disagree. NHL hockey is a business and this was a business decision by both parties.

But if you must hang it on someone I suspect that ownership has to take the brunt here. They own a multi-million dollar corporation with a valuable asset that is going to expire. They should have made him a serious offer in July and if he didn't sign bite the bullett and make a trade in September. Instead ownership appears to have been distracted by their mutual lawsuits and then by an effort to bring in a new investor. They fiddled and the Atlanta Thrashers hockey team is much poorer for it. Well run companies maximize their assets, poorly run companies miss opportunities and squander their assets.

Has Atlanta correctly valued these players?

I think that Thrashers made Kovalchuk a fair offer (perhaps even more than I would have) and they probably got the best deal available given a bad situation (which they allowed to develop). My biggest concern is whether they have evaluated these players correctly.

In many ways we might think of this as the first mid-season Rick Dudley trade. Waddell has been very busy with the Kovalchuk contract talks and Dudley has been his pro scouting eyes and ears since being hired. Dudley is apparently quite high on Cormier and I presume he likes Bergfors as well. Waddell told Vivalmore:

Bergfors is a first-year player. He has 13 goals. We think that will get even better. He’s on pace for basically a 20-goal season as a first-year player. We’ve watched Kane as a first-year player, how he’s gotten better throughout the year. We think the player is only going to get better as he gets more maturity, gets more experience in the league. Whether that’s a 20-, 25-goal scorer on a regular basis is what we hoped. Cormier is probably ideal for a second-line center because he plays both ends of the ice very well. He’s a hard-nosed player, He plays hard as we know, unfortunately suspended right now. Even his game style, he plays a very aggressive style. As Rick Dudley says he’s the kind of guy that every organization wants to have on its reserve list. It was hard for New Jersey to give up this player.

I have some big concerns about the paragraph above. It is true that Bergfors is on pace for 20 goal, 40 point rookie season. Those would be very exciting numbers for a 18 or 19 year old rookie, but Bergfors is already 22. Most NHL players show improvement in the 18-25 period and hit their peak performance level at age 25. Bergfors is much closer to 25 than he is to 18, he has a much lower ceiling than say Evander Kane.

Furthermore, Bergfors scoring numbers in the AHL are VERY underwhelming. On average an AHL player will retain roughly half of his scoring rate when he makes the jump from the AHL to the NHL. If you apply that to Bergfors, his AHL career screams "3rd line forward" to me. Of course there are error bands and some players retain more than half of their scoring rate and others less. If Bergfors turns into Erik Christensen II--well then this trade was an unmitigated disaster.

I have the exact same concerns about Patrice Cormier. He plays in the QMJHL which is the highest scoring of the three major junior leagues. A typical player who jumps from the Q to the NHL only retains about 30% of his scoring rate. If Cormier is a typical player, then that makes him a 3rd/4th line guy who will score 18-22 points in a full season. I see nothing in his statistical profile to suggest he will contribute anything to the team's offense. He would only be a 2nd line center on a very bad hockey team. My expectation is that he will be a 3rd/4th line agitator pest in the NHL, anything more would come as a surprise.

Now that I've laid my doubts out on the table, I will to point out that Waddell/Dudley deserve credit for some unexpectedly good player decisions of late. Afinogenov was better than I expected. Antropov is having a career year in Atlanta and Kubina was a great addition this summer. Peverley was phenomenal waiver pick and Schubert a very solid wavier grap as well. This team is not in the playoff mix without those all of those decisions. Credit given where credit is due. So if you're a Thrashers fan you have to hope that Cormier and Bergfors turn out more like Peverley than Christensen. Time will tell the tale.

Thanks to all the many readers who visited this site the last two days. Thursday you shattered the...

2010-02-05T04:06:08Z

Thanks to all the many readers who visited this site the last two days. Thursday you shattered the all time record for this blog. The new high is more than double the previous record. Y'all come back now!

All of us at BWA

Talking Kovy Trade Now!

2010-02-05T03:03:22Z

Talking Kovy Trade Now!

Click on the title to listen in.

Kovalchuk to New Jersey Devils

2010-02-05T01:02:33Z

To New Jersey: Ilya Kovalchuk, Anssi Salmela, Atlanta's 2010 2nd round pick

To Atlanta: Johnny Oduya, Niklas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier, New Jersey's 2010 1st- and a swap of 2nd-round picks

[Edited by Tim to include confirmed details.]

For the New Jersey perspective check out In Lou We Trust.

Falconer's Take

Bergfors: The offensive talent in this deal. His scoring numbers in AHL suggest he's not a 1st line guy but more of 2nd line 50-60 point potential in NHL. He is a RFA this summer and his salary will be modest given his NHL performance this year.

Oduya: The defensive stalwart of this deal. Had two very strong years with New Jersey has not been as good this year. Signed to a reasonable contract $3.4 million for 2 more seasons.

Cormier: Nearly everyone knows about his brutal elbow that got him suspended. His scoring stats are pretty lousy for a player in the high scoring Q, so don't expect anything more than 3rd line duty for him. But with E. Kane, Bogosian, Klingberg and Cormier Thrashers are adding up young guys who like to hit.

Picks. Thrashers will now have 2 picks in the 1st and a late 2nd rounder. This is expected to be an above average draft class.

Roster Ripple Effects

Adding Oduya at defense suggests to me that Kubina will not be re-signed. Thrashers top four next year would be Enstrom, Oduya, Bogosian and Hainsey. Departure of Salmela opens a roster spot for Arturs Kulda who leads the entire AHL in plus/minus. Valabik and Kulda as the 3rd pairing. (Schubert and Popovic are UFA)

Waddell said he expects Cormier to compete for a NHL job next year. Both Slater and Boulton are UFA this summer, so perhaps some turnover there. Machacek should also be in the mix for a job.

Left wing is not nearly as deep with Kovy and Kozlov departing. Might give Brett Sterling one last crack as the 2nd line LW out of training camp? Peverley can play all three forward positions so he also is a potential LW for next year.

Power Play QB

Bogosian and Kubina would get lots of PP ice time on a normal team. Kovalchuk never came off the ice with the man advantage which diminished their opportunities to show what they can do. Paradoxically the Thrashers PP might become less predictable and perhaps more dangerous as opposition PKers have to guess what will happen now. Look for Zach Bogosian to put up some gaudy numbers next season.

Offense/Defense

The Thrashers are much better defensively with Oduya coming on board and Bergfors swapping out for Kovalchuk up front. They also lose a lot of offensve, but guys Bogosian and Kubina are very capable of supplying more points on the PP. It is really the ES offense that will suffer in my opinion.

Cap Effects

The departure of UFAs Kubina, Afinogenov, Armstrong and Kozlov means that $14 million comes off the books in cap space. The Oduya + Bergfors combo will probably make $2 million less than Kovy+Salmela. So the Thrashers will have $16 million in cap dollars freed up. The UFA market is rather weak, but Chicago Blackhawks will need to clear $9 million of their books just to squeeze under the cap so there will be some salaries moved via trade.

Age Curve

Team gets younger which I endorse. Bergfors is 22, Oduya 29 (replacing Kubina who is older) and Cormier is just 19, the picks will be 18 of course. This positions the Thrashers to enjoy their peak performance years.

Who Won?

I'd have to say Jay Grossman if Kovalchuk gets a cap max contract this summer. The Thrashers would have gotten more if they had made this trade over the summer. A rental is only going to bring you a fraction of the true value of the players (see Ryan Smyth, Hossa rental, etc).

Organizational Reputation

The trade is nothing short of a huge hit in terms of the Thrashers reputation among hockey fans in Atlanta and the rest of the NHL. Personally, I'm less upset than most because I think committing $10 million to a one-way hockey player for 7-10 years would not have helped this team in the long run (I know many people will probably disagree with me on this point).

The Thrashers low reputation will probably make it harder to attract UFA next summer. Brian Campbell spurned the team two years ago (which turned out to be a good thing from a cap perspective) but Atlanta might have to overpay to get who they want on the market.

The ONLY long term way to recover is to construct a competitive roster and win games. Respect comes from wins--nothing else.

Told the Kovalchuk deal is going to happen tonight. Stay tuned.

2010-02-04T23:31:18Z

Told the Kovalchuk deal is going to happen tonight. Stay tuned.

Kevin Allen on Twitter

Kovalchuk Watch: Absurdity Edition

2010-02-04T15:20:06Z

More photos » John Bazemore - AP

Browse more photos »

After the news two days ago that Ilya Kovalchuk will no longer be a Thrasher, there has been an almost constant drip of updates about the potential trade. While the folks here at BWA typically don't run rumors, some of them are just too good to pass up.

We have credible reports that Ilya Kovalchuk did, in fact, eat breakfast this morning. Details of the breakfast are scarce, but it's safe to assume that it probably included eggs. Less certain: did it include pancakes, waffles, or a bagel? Or perhaps french toast? And, if it did include french toast, does that reveal Kovalchuk's plans to sign a contract with the Montreal Canadiens this summer?

Also in question is the beverage of choice. Was caffeine involved? In the form of coffee or tea? Or did Kovalchuk stick with a simple juice for his breakfast? It is also possible that he drank some sort of smoothie or protein shake, which could call into question the other reports of a solid breakfast.

The fact is, we just don't know. And maybe we should all calm down a little bit.

Updates when we have them...

Live Radio Discussion of the Kovalchuk Situation - Tonight@6pm

2010-02-03T21:13:08Z

More photos » David Zalubowski - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Browse more photos »

Folks, it's been an interesting 24 hours for the Thrashers. Almost exactly one day ago, John Kincade announced that the Thrashers would be trading Ilya Kovalchuk. We got some details about the contract he was offered. Kincade also claimed that Kari Lehtonen is on the way out.

Things seemed to be moving even closer in the evening, when our very own Falconer received word from a source close to the situation claiming that a deal with the Los Angeles Kings was "close." He posted that information here, and about 20 minutes later, it was posted to the SB Nation blog From the Rink.

Later that evening, TSN's Bob McKenzie shot back at Falconer, going so far as to call him, and by extension, this blog, "amateur hour." Now hey there.

Of course, today we find out that Ilya Kovalchuk has, in fact, been told that he will be traded. A trade is not finished at this point, but one can be expected over the next couple days.

Given all of the excitement around the situation, the four of us here at BWA thought it would be appropriate to bump up an idea that we were planning for after the Olympic break. We'd like to have a live discussion of happenings with the Thrashers, probably weekly, and allow fans to submit questions both ahead of time and live. The plan was to test out some services and finalize our plans during the break. Given the current situation, though, we decided to run a test tonight and invite all of you to join us.

So this evening at 6:00 PM EST, you're welcome to join us for a live discussion of the Kovalchuk situation. We'll be using the BlogTalkRadio hosting service. A link to tonight's show is right here. Myself, Falconer, and Aaron should all be on the line, no word yet if Milkshake can make it. as well as last minute Milkshake...

If you have a question or comment, you may call in during the show. We should be able to take a limited number of calls. However, you're much more likely to get your question in by submitting in advance. We've set up a voice mailbox where you can leave comments and questions, the number is (503) 4-ATL-BWA. You're welcome to call in and leave a message.

A disclaimer: we haven't tested out this service yet, so don't expect this to be a fully smooth, well-produced radio show. This is a pilot, a test, whatever you'd like to call it. Still, we hope you can join us.

Poll

A Bird Watchers Anonymous radio show is...

Trade Rumors, Bob McKenzie and Me

2010-02-03T13:00:29Z

So yesterday I published a rumor to the effect that a deal to sent Kovalchuk to the Kings was very close. Long time readers of this blog will know that I almost never publish rumors and I rarely even comment on rumors made by other people. I put it up there because I had some reason to think that it might be true. I heard this from someone who was in a position to know or at least hear things--and so I choose to put it out there for public consumption.

I was more than a little disappointed to see Bob McKenzie right the following about the rumor on Twitter last night.

You know what I think of these rumors of the LAK on verge of getting Kovalchuk? Total BS. Some interest but fit isn't right at this point. Will spend more time on bogus reports than actual trades. It's the silly season. Amateur hour. Like New Year's Eve and St. Patrick's Day. :) Now, if Kovalchuk goes to LA everyone will say it was good scoop. Telling u, at this time, there's no merit. Take it for what it's worth.

The truth is that I generally admire Bob McKenzie's work as a journalist. He is the baseball equivalent of Peter Gammons--he has been around forever and knows all sorts of people in professional hockey. He also reports things in a calm rational way without the shouting and ridiculous hype that seems to infect so many other hockey commentators. I saw McKenzie in person at the NHL Draft this summer and listened to him talk to other journalists but never had the opportunity to speak to him one-on-one. Having laid out my Bob McKenzie appreciation let me now make a few observations.

It is true that I published this rumor in the hope of getting ahead of everyone else. Over the years I've known some delicious scoops about the Thrashers but was told things on the condition that I could not publicize them--which can be extremely frustrating. This particular rumor came with no strings attached and so I shared it. I suspect every aspiring journalist dreams of breaking a big story--probably even a young Bob McKenzie had such dreams. Every hard-working reporter wants to get the scoop--and I can't help but wonder whether it is more galling to be scooped by a blogger? Lots of people publish trade rumors that don't come true--do they all receive the "amateur hour" dig?

If you read McKenzie's statement very carefully he doesn't say "I can confirm that the rumor is BS" or "people close to LA say it is BS." Instead he wrote "You know what I think of these rumors. Total BS"--which is something less than ironclad. Many people have assumed that McKenzie contacted the Thrashers or Kings to disprove the rumor, but that is not his claim. His retort appears to be based on his opinion: "Some interest but fit isn't right at this point". Now perhaps I'm parsing this too closely and McKenzie really did talk to someone with the Kings or Thrashers but a literal reading of his comment does not indicate such is the case. At this point I'm not throwing in the towel on this particular rumor just yet, we will have to just wait and see what happens next.

My third observation is that if you pay close attention, the vast majority of the NHL media lacks good sources within the Atlanta Thrashers organization. Think back for a moment and see if you can remember who has written actual news stories about the Thrashers (as opposed to speculation or opinion pieces about the Thrashers). I have been following this team since day one of the franchise history and the truth of the matter is that most of the NHL simply ignores the Atlanta Thrashers and they have not bothered to cultivate the team or sources with the team. There are a handful of journalists who appear to have know their Thrashers news: 1) Kevin Allen of USA Today 2) Craig Custance of Sporting News (and former beat writer for the Thrashers) and 3) Scott Burnside who relocated to Atlanta several years ago. In my opinion that's the entire list of people with good dirt on the Thrashers organization and it is a very short list indeed.

Even in this city Thrashers reporting is often remarkably thin. The last three seasons the AJC has had a new beat writer and each has had to climb the learning curve during the season. I struggle to think of a single significant story broken by resident "hockey expert" John Kincaide of 680 The Fan. His latest reporting that "Kovalchuk is 100%" gone was known by myself and a few long-time Thrasher fans a full 10 days before he "announced" the news on his show. I shared the same news with numerous people riding on the bus up to Nashville on Saturday. There is more stuff he didn't even reveal on his show about another pending UFA who is likely on his way out of Atlanta, I'm guessing he didn't reveal it because he doesn't know about it.

My fourth observation is that if the Atlanta Thrashers issue a statement tomorrow denying that a deal with the LA Kings is pending, everyone should take it with a HUGE grain of salt. Let's take a walk down memory late to the summer of 2008. The Thrashers had brought John Anderson into town to interview for the head coaching position. The new beat reporter Mike Knobler published a story saying the Thrashers had hired John Anderson as their new head coach. Then later that same evening he reported on AJC.com that the team had contacted him and denied that they had hired Anderson. Guess what happened the next day? The team announced that they had hired John Anderson. (It seemed to me like a poor way to treat Knobler, but he doesn't appear to hold a grudge.)

The Thrashers have an organizational interest in controlling this story and how the news is presented to fans. Don Waddell is not obligated to keep fans abrest of every development. His obligation is to get the best possible deal for his franchise. If getting the best possible deal involves issuing "contradictory" or even misleading statements that is the way the game is played. Case in point the Calgary Flames swore that they were not trading Dion Phaneuf--only to turn around and trade Phaneuf to Toronto. Heck, maybe this rumor was intentionally planted by Don Waddell to try and scare a rival team into upping their bid for Kovalchuk. The NHL is a cut throat hyper-competitive business every GM is seeking to beat the other GM--so you never know.

One last observation is that trading away the face of the franchise is going to result in a major PR hit to the franchise--the team probably cares more about how this particular story is released to fans than anything since the Dan Snyder/Dany Heatley story. Looking back on the Heatley-for-Hossa trade can be instructive. For example the Thrashers took careful steps taken to cushion the blow to fans including the PR department drafting a "Farewell Atlanta" statement from Heatley (it certainly wasn't a priority for Dany). Professional hockey is a form of the entertainment business. The trade of Ilya Kovalchuk is a pivot point for the franchise and they will need something else to sell fans once Kovalchuk has departed, keep this in mind when you watch the news conference announcing the trade.

Kovalchuk Trade Close?

2010-02-03T02:29:01Z

I'm hearing some chatter that a deal between the Thrashers and LA Kings is very close. I'm not 100% on this, but I consider it strong enough to post for your information.

Gameday: Thrashers Host Bolts - Live Together, Die Alone

2010-02-02T22:01:44Z

Gregory Smith - AP

4 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers forward Rich Peverley, left, celebrates goal as Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Paul Ranger (54) skates through during the second period, of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, at Philips Arena, in Atlanta. Peverley had two goals for the night as the Thrashers went on to win 6-3. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

View full size photo »


	v.

Atlanta Thrashers		Tampa Bay Lightning

Philips Arena
7:00PM
TV: SportSouth Radio: 680 the FAN
SBNation: Game Page, Raw Charge
TSN Coverage

Ondrej Pavelec		Antero Niittymaki
(12-13-4 .903% 3.47)		(12-9-5, .916% 2.53)

Games don't come much bigger than this. Why? Find out after the jump.

With all of these convoluted storylines, tonight's game uncannily resembles the season premiere of LOST that's sure to be battling for your attention. Can the Thrashers slay the Nitty giant? Can they take a theoretical four points from TB? What will the playoff race look like after tonight? Will we ever see Slava Kozlov again after his kidnapping by the Press Box People? What is the source of Jim Slater's recently acquired magical goal-scoring abilities? How will this game affect the Ilya Kovalchuk Three-Ring Circus & Big Top™? Will he step off the ice to find he's been sacrificed to the Big Orange Monster?

Here's what we know about the Lightning:

- Atlanta has a 1-1-2 record against them this year, and this is their last visit to Philips. The Thrashers only win was against Tampa's Mike Smith. In what can only be called a case of riding the hot hand, Lightning coach Rick Tocchet is starting Niittymaki and his 15-0-0 record against Atlanta.

- TBL center Steven Stamkos is white hot to the tune of eight points (4g, 4a) in his last five games. Fun Fact! Stamkos is currently in a three way tie for the NHL lead for power play goals scored (12)! Yes, we have seen quite enough Stamkos, thanks.

- The Lightning have gone to overtime in three of their last five games, and Niitty's been in goal for all of them.

- The Lightning have their own off-ice dramas to deal with - the future of their superstar and an ownership drama. ~~Brian~~ John Fontana over at Raw Charge has the scoop.

For your Atlanta Thrashers;

- Marc Popovic is back in tonight after missing 27 games with a broken foot. Anssi Salmela is a healthy scratch.

- Great tough guy quote from Ondrej Pavelec in the above article:

Ondrej Pavelec will start in goal, his first start in five games. He will be opposed by Antero Niittymaki, who is 15-0-0 career against the Thrashers. "I’m not playing against Niittymaki," Pavelec said. "I’m playing against Tampa Bay."

Beautiful.

Tim's Notes on the Thrashers

I hope my little post earlier didn't burst anybody's bubble. The Thrashers played better in January than in December, but thanks to the horrendous slide they saw at the end of 2009, Feburary and March are going to have to go better than January if the Thrashers hope to make the playoffs.

January saw the Thrashers go 6-5-4 for 16 points in 15 games. That's a hell of a lot better than December, and in line with their October (5-4-1), but they'll need to pick it up to make the playoffs. The rest of the way, the boys in blue will need to run about 4 games above 0.500 to have a good shot at a playoff position. 3 games above 0.500 gives them something like a 50/50 shot. Of course, it'll also depend on who those wins come against and how many garbage points teams pick up, but that gives you a good target: 6 or 7 games above 0.500. This is much, much lower than in the past. Thanks, Western Conference, for beating the crap out of the Eastern Conference.

Tonight's Three Themes for the Thrashers:

You're Notty-making Any Sense: If there's a guy who really just keeps pushing the Thrashers' button, it's Antero Niittymaki. 15-0-0 against the Thrashers. Something's got to give.
Beware the Others: We all know how dangerous Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier are. In case if you've been living under a rock, the Bolts also have this kid named Stamkos who is pretty good... But did you know that there's some guy named Ryan Malone who has over 20 goals this season? And a punk named Steve Downie who's managed to score 11 goals when he wasn't sitting in the penalty box (149 PIMs so far)?
No Man is (on) an Island: Teamwork. Do it. The Thrashers have given up a number of goals lately thanks to poor neutral zone turnovers. The Lightning have several skaters with quick-strike capability. Do the math. The Thrashers need to play a solid team game, provide support in the neutral zone, and control the puck over the blueline. Forwards need to be quick about getting back to the point when defensemen move up into play. I swear I say the same thing every week... sigh.

I'll be at the game. Say hi if you see me.

	STATS
54	GP	54
22	W	24
21	L	22
11	OT	8
55	P	56
0.509	P%	0.519
2.52	G/G	2.98
2.87	GA/G	3.15
19.6	PP%	17.7
79.4	PK%	80.5
29.1	S/G	29.5
31.0	SA/G	33.4
51.3	FO%	50.7

In Case You Were Feeling Better About the Thrashers

2010-02-02T16:09:55Z

Thrashers fans should be feeling a little more optimistic in January. The team is playing much better than they did in December, but I'm still concerned it's not enough. Just a quick reminder: the most important predictor of a team's final position in the standings is goal differential.

Here's a graph for that...

The Thrashers are -9 on the year... which isn't too terrible. This season, in fact, that might get them into the playoffs (thanks to the West's absolute dominance over the East). The only problem? They are -7 in January. If they keep playing like they have in January, they'll fall further and further down that curve.

Right now, it's hard to look at the standings. With the tight bunch between spots 7 and 13, the standings will get mixed up day-by-day. Here at BWA, we'll try to tie you into some longer-term trends.

Poll

Goal Differential is...

Atlanta Thrashers Road Trip Pictures

2010-02-02T04:11:26Z

Over 500 Atlanta Thrashers fans made the trip up to Snowy Nashville on Sunday to see their team take on the Predators. I was impressed at how organized the whole thing was so my hat is off to the leadership of the Fan Club. Here are a few pictures of the day. The last one is the most impressive as one end of the arena looked like Blueland.

Boarding the Bus in Atlanta.

Fans on Bus

Tailgating Before the Game!

Blueland comes to Nashville.

Burke Busy: Phaneuf, Guigeure to Leafs, Ian White & 'Stach to Flames

2010-01-31T18:41:18Z

Burke Busy: Phaneuf, Guigeure to Leafs, Ian White & 'Stach to Flames

Dion Phaneuf is the centerpiece of a seven player deal involving the Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames. In a separate deal, J.S Giguere goes to The Center of the Hockey Universe™ for Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake. James Mirtle has cap implications - not much movement there, But the Leafs just became a little tougher to beat.

Listen to JabberHockey This Afternoon at 5:30

2010-01-31T15:23:59Z

Listen to JabberHockey This Afternoon at 5:30

Come join me and the guys from On Goal Analysis for some talk about Thrashers hockey - and probably some guy named Kovalchuk.