Bird Watchers Anonymous

No Coaching Change this Season

2010-03-15T22:10:45Z

No Coaching Change this Season

In a move that can only be described as "more shocking than the Cloverfield monster," GM Don Waddell has stated that there will be no coaching change this year.

Duh.

Top 3 Draft Pick Closer than Playoffs for Thrashers

2010-03-15T16:32:39Z

After winning just a single point in their last six games the Thrashers have dropped down into the basement of the NHL standings. If the season ended today the Thrashers would pick 6th or 7th (they are tied with FLA in Win %). However, the teams at the bottom are very tightly bunched and if the Thrashers tailspin continues they could easily end up with the 3rd overall draft pick. Carolina has been red hot and the Thrashers play them twice more, Atlanta could easily "catch" the Hurricanes for the 3rd worst position by the end of the season.

EDM 49
TOR 58
CAR 64
NYI 65
CBJ 65
FLA 66
ATL 67
TBL 68

Now, I realize that most fans are probably thinking "enough with the high draft picks!" But consider this for a moment. They key to building a contender is assembling a foundation of young talent that will continue to grow and improvement over a 5-6 period as they enter their peak performance years. The Chicago Blackhawks and LA Kings have done exactly that and should be powerhouses for the next few years as a result. The Thrasher have had a handful of young and talented stars but they have never had more than a handful at any one point in time.

If the Thrashers were to sneak into the top three picks they would have a shot at drafting one of the top scoring talents in the 2010 NHL Draft: Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall or a solid top six prospect like Nino Niederreiter. Each of these prospects might be able to step into the NHL at age 18 and play next season. The Thrashers prospect pool is deep in several positions, but scoring forwards are always in short supply. Jeremy Morin probably needs another season in juniors to work on his skating and Eric O'Dell might need a year or two in the AHL

If the Thrashers were lucky enough to land either Seguin, Hall or Niederriter those players would be comparatively cheap during their 3 year entry level contract. They could fill out a top six spot and leave the team money to go add a free agent scorer in the off season.

What are the odds of picking in the top three? Here are the Club Sports Odds of Atlanta finished in each draft slot at the end of the year.

01% chance
10% chance
16% chance
21% chance
22% chance
17% chance

If you add up the probabilities there is a 27% chance (better than 1 in 4) of the Atlanta finishing in the bottom three. Of course finished 3rd worse doesn't guaranteee the 3rd pick because of the draft lottery. The Thrashers could move down one slot (if a team behind them won) or up to the #1 pick if they won the lottery. The winner can move up a maximum of 4 spots in the draft order so the 4th and 5th place slot teams have a small chance of picking in the top three--but it is only a small chance. (4th place as an 11% of winning the lottery and 5th place an 8% chance of winning). The odds of the Thrashers finishing in the bottom five are 70% right now. So there is a very good chance that we will be waiting on pins and needles on lottery day.

As painful as it is to fall out of the playoff race this late in the season, adding another elite talent could add another young building block to the foundation of the team. There are only two phases in pro sports. If you're not contending you're rebuilding.

New Ways to Interact: Facebook

2010-03-15T01:33:12Z

We get pretty good traffic here at Bird Watchers Anonymous, but that doesn't show much in the comments. We've got a pretty dedicated crowd of regulars, but there's a lot of folks who just come to read the articles. If you want to chime in, you've got to sign up for an account here at sbnation.com (which I highly recommend you do...)

Still, we think that the more ways we give you to interact with us and with each other, the better. To this end, I've gone and done the unthinkable: I've created a BWA Facebook page.

You can get to it right here.

There are often things worth mentioning or posting that aren't quite enough for a story here - up until now, we've used Twitter for that, and will likely continue to do so, but Facebook will be another avenue for sharing information.

So what should you, our loyal readers, do? First, sign up for an account here and start commenting! Then go ahead and become a fan on Facebook and invite your friends.

Poll

A Facebook Page?

Blogger Day: Coyotes at Thrashers

2010-03-14T16:30:08Z

Hey folks!

Today is another one of the Atlanta Thrashers' fabulous BLOGGER DAYS. "Blogger Days" are days when the Thrashers give folks like myself sort-of-kind-of press access to the games! We get fancy paper temporary press passes and almost limitless access to the facility. They steer us clear of most of the players and coaches (with the exception of a couple - tonight we get Nicklas Bergfors) but let us partake in the free snacks and beverages!

I've only had the opportunity to go once before, so I'm looking forward to this evening. I'll try to come back here with extra information and tidbits as they happen.

It's much easier to comment than post here at BWA from my phone (which I'll be using a lot), so expect most of the stuff to show up in the comments.

Reminder: Internet Radio Discussion Tomorrow Morning

2010-03-13T03:00:29Z

Hey folks, just a quick reminder that the crew here from BWA will be discussing what went oh-so-wrong for the Thrashers' playoff hopes and if there's anything we can look forward to in 2010-2011.

You can get to the show right here.

Just a reminder: you can leave questions and comments for us here or call in (to the number provided on the page) during the show.

Revealing Picture after Columbus Loss

2010-03-12T18:46:44Z

Picture: by Mr Seats of the Chicken.

Wolves Playoff Roster Finalized

2010-03-12T16:08:30Z

Wolves Playoff Roster Finalized

The AHL has rules about who is eligible to participate in the playoffs. The Wovles "clear day" roster has been set, click on the headline to see who will be eligible. Chad Denny and Scot Lehman didn't make the list. Grant Lewis was loaned to antoher AHL team to open up ice time for him.

Free Falling Thrashers Playoff Chances Collapse

2010-03-12T13:20:23Z

More photos » Terry Gilliam - AP

4 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Chris Chelios (24) skates during warmups before an NHL hockey game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Thursday, March 11, 2010, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Terry Gilliam)

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The Atlanta Thrashes lost 2-1 in Columbus last night and effectively eliminated themselves from playoff contention. In the seven games following the trade of Ilya Kovalchuk the team won 10 of a possible 14 points to push their playoff odds to 60%. That hot stretch was followed up by an ice cold 4 consecutive losses in which the offense completely dried up.

When the the Thrashers were winning the other playoff teams were struggling which helped Atlanta climb up into the 8th position in the standing. But now the tide has reversed and the other playoff contenders are winning as Atlanta has lost--which has accelerated the team's decline.

As the graph above illustrates, the real turning point in the season came not in the last four games, but back in late December / early January when the team went 11 games with just one win and three OT/SO losses. During that 11 game free fall the Thrashers winning percentage was an expansion quality 23%. Even good teams have bad streaks during the long season. But the Thrashers inability to staunch the bleeding during December was catastrophic to for their playoff hopes.

What went wrong during that 11 game stretch? The team kept the shots under control (342-349), but were outscored 28-49 during that period. That translates into 2.55 GFA and a 4.45 GAA (If you throw out the 8-1 loss to WSH the team GAA is still a lousy 4.10) The offensive efficiency wasn't great (8.2 Shot %) but the goaltending really fell apart (.870 SV%). And that's really where the season was lost.

The moves and non-moves made at the Trade Deadline contributed almost nothing. Veterans Maxim Afinogenov, Slava Kozlov and Colby Armstrong were all retained. Afinogenov had two costly turnovers that contributed directly to the Carolina loss and Armstrong took a penalty that proved very costly in the Nashville. Deadline acquisitions MacArthur and Artuykhin both scored in the win over the Islanders and then promptly became invisible men. Chris Chelios was signed and has played just one game but he was on the ice for both goals against and redirected the first goal into the net.

With the benefit of more data it appears that the Thrashers were simply hot after the Kovalchuk trade and now they're cold. The team is not as bad as their 4 game losing streak would indicate, nor are they as good as their hot streak after the Kovalchuk trade. Baring a miracle 6 consecutive win streak, the season is toast and it will soon be time to think about draft position (7th overall as of this morning) and free agency and re-signing RFAs (Bergfors, Pavelec).

This is only the 3rd time in 10 years that the Thrashers have had a realistic shot at the playoffs in March (qualified just once). Their run should have lasted longer in my opinion, but the team work ethic was very inconsistent for most of the season. Far too often the team only played hard for half a game or just one period. They threw away points that were there for the taking. They should have been in this playoff race until the final days of the season in my opinion. They had the talent to compete, but lacked the will. I hope that bothers them as much as it bothers me.

Ranking College Prospects

2010-03-10T22:27:45Z

Ranking College Prospects

Chris Dilks composed a Top 50 NHL Prospects list in the WCHA and CCHA. It was interesting seeing his take on who he thinks has the most promise. Zach Redmond is the highest ranked Thrasher. Daulton Leveille sneaks in at the end. John Albert missed the cut. One of the top undrafted prospects could end up going right around where the Thrashers pick in June.

Let's Call a Meeting! BWA Radio Show Saturday @ 11am

2010-03-10T18:33:25Z

Let's Call a Meeting! BWA Radio Show Saturday @ 11am

The Atlanta Thrashers have been wildly inconsistent since returning from the Olympic break. After working themselves into a playoff position, the team has seemed to fall apart. In an attempt to stabilize the team, they've recalled 48-year old defenseman Chris Chelios from the AHL Chicago Wolves to provide veteran leadership. Will the Thrashers make the playoffs? If not, what's in store for the team and management? The writers from Bird Watchers Anonymous break it down... live!

Chicago Wolves on NHL Network Again

2010-03-10T16:14:25Z

Chicago Wolves on NHL Network Again

Curious about the Thrashers AHL prospects? Make sure to watch on Sunday March 28th when the Wolves play Texas.

Chris Chelios getting called up by the Atlanta Thrashers. They need leadership badly; apparently...

2010-03-10T15:56:42Z

Chris Chelios getting called up by the Atlanta Thrashers. They need leadership badly; apparently he's been awesome with the Wolves.

Sportsnet.ca's Arash Madani

Does Tobias Enstrom Not Shoot Enough?

2010-03-10T15:00:43Z

More photos » Gregory Smith - AP

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"Shoot!" yells the woman behind me.

"That Toby Enstrom, somebody needs to teach him to shoot the damn puck," offers her companion.

"If Toby shot more, the powerplay would be less predictable and more likely to score!" says the conventional wisdom. "But everybody knows that Toby will just pass. It's so obvious!"

It's hard to be the person who pops in to suggest that maybe, just maybe, the guy who's taken himself from an 8th round (239th overall) draft pick to the cornerstone of the Atlanta Thrashers blueline just might know what he's doing. Of course, there's no hard and fast rule for when to shoot the puck and when to maintain possession, but most hockey fans live and die by the Gretzky rule:

You miss 100% of the shots you never take.

True. But also terribly misleading. I'll try to solve this riddle with stats... after the jump.

First, let's set some ground-rules:

We're only talking powerplay here. It's too difficult to filter out all the variables at even-strength. On the powerplay, we've got a pretty good idea of what's going on. Plus, this is when people whine the most anyway... (And I'm only looking at 5-on-4 PP stats.)
We're limiting this discussion to only four defensemen: Tobias Enstrom, Pavel Kubina, Ron Hainsey, and Zach Bogosian. There's just not enough data for the other guys, including Johnny Oduya.
The goal is to show whether shooting more from the blueline on the powerplay helps or hurts the team's performance.

If you take a look at the basic powerplay stats, you'll notice a few things. Enstrom is the most effective at picking up points by far: his 3.24 points/60 compares quite favorably to Hainsey, Kubina, and Bogosian (2.37, 2.31, 2.02 respectively.) He's second in goals forced/60, a measure of how effective the entire unit is. (Kubina: 5.55, Enstrom: 5.26, Bogosian: 4.04, Hainsey: 2.37.)

If you take the first measure and divide it by the second, you get points/goal forced, a measure that shows what percentage of the time the player gets a point when the powerplay unit gets a goal. You could perhaps call this the "participation rate." Enstrom sits at 62%, compared to Kubina at 42%. (Hainsey and Bogosian may not have played enough on the PP for this to be a useful stat.)

Perhaps more interesting is the graph you get when you compare the powerplay unit's shots (per 60) with their goals (again, per 60). The operating assumption is that more shots means more goals, right? About that...

As it turns out, more shots seems to mean less goals. The powerplay unit's shooting percentage absolutely plummets when Zach Bogosian or Ron Hainsey are on the ice. It's quite high when Kubina or Enstrom are out there. That split is not particularly surprising. Isn't that the stereotype? Europeans shoot less and hold the puck more? They're more crafty? (Except a Mister Alexander Ovechkin, of course.)

Remember this next time Toby passes rather than attempt a shot on an unscreened goalie with a few bodies in the way to block the shot: you may not like it, but he's effective. More effective than Human Puck Cannon Ron Hainsey. (Yes, the point on the graph to the far right is Hainsey.) You don't score on 100% of the shots you don't take, but you also don't score when you fire the puck at a penalty-killer's shin.

Thrashers Outplay Predators-Lose Game and Perhaps Playoffs

2010-03-10T12:33:47Z

More photos » John Bazemore - AP

6 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg cools down after giving up a goal to the Nashville Predators in the first period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, March 9, 2010, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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If the hockey gods were just, the Atlanta Thrashers would have won last night. With their backs against the wall the team put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season. In my previous post, I questioned whether this team could adjust--and last night I watched them adjust:

They released their shots MUCH more quickly.
The recognized that the opposing goalie was allowing rebounds on nearly every shot and they threw pucks at the net.
They were patient and made D-to-D passes in their own zone until they could set up a proper breakout.
They managed to get through the neutral zone consistently against a good defensive team.
Their goalie played well and gave them a chance to win.
They battled hard for pucks along the wall and for rebounds in front of the net.
They were unselfish with the puck and moved it to the open man.

If life was fair they would have exited that game with 2 points, but life is not always fair. Many times during this season the Thrashers only played hard in the 3rd period and came away with points. Last night they played hard for three periods and ended up with nothing to show for it. If the team played with that level of intensity all the time they would not be a desperate position.

Instead, the Predators scored a power play goal off of a nice play and they got a gift goal courtesy of a mistake by Mark Popovic. After the game he said it bounced on him. It might have, but he simply has to bear down and limit the damage in that situation. He could have at least kicked or pushed the puck out of danger. At worst, Popovic could have probably saved a goal by hooking or tripping the attacking Predator player. Taking a penalty would have decreased the Predators chances of getting a goal from 30-40% (penalty shot success rate) to 22% (power play percentage).

Would Schubert have made the same mistake? Would Kulda have handled it better? There is no way to know the answer to that question. It would be grossly unfair to say the Thrashers blew their playoff chances because of a single bad play. The Thrashers were in this precarious position because of their free fall back in December and their weak effort in the two games prior. If you're going to point fingers there are plenty of scapegoats to go around.

The thing that frustrates me the most is that the team played so hard and came up so empty. Last night was easily one of the five most entertaining games of the season. My heart was in my throat the whole night. They stormed all around the net and just couldn't catch a break. At one point Antropov carried the puck behind the net and Ellis came totally out of the net. All Nik needed to do was loft the puck off the body of the Thrasher standing in the crease and it would have deflected into the yawning net--that would have tied the game up.

This was the closest thing to playoff intensity we've seen at Philips Arena in a long time. But this is March and there are no moral victories anymore. It is crunch time and you either win those crucial points or you don't. There are no gold stars for good effort. Here's what I believe: if the Thrashers played as hard as they did last night, they would make the playoffs. But I have no reason to think they can put forward that effort level on a consistent basis after watching them stumble against Tampa and Carolina this week.

So what would it take? I think 89 points will probably be enough to get into the post-season. The Thrashers April schedule is brutal I don't expect them to do much better than 2-2-1 next month. That means the Thrashers need to go 9-3 in the remaining games in March. That's a .750 Winning Percentage the rest of the month. They need to win 3 games for every 1 they lose in regulation. To do that would require a very high effort level every night the rest of the way, and honestly I just can't see this roster sustaining that for the next 12 games.

The only other path to the post-season requires that they just get lucky. They need Boston to fall apart with Marc Savard sidelined with a concussion. They need Montreal to succumb to the intense pressure that comes with playing in that particular market. They need the Rangers to stumble. But such a scenario is highly improbable--three teams all struggling with the playoffs on the line? I'm not holding my breath for that to happen.

But this particular string has not yet been played out completely. There is still a small chance for success. I'll be there on Twitter living and dying with every big play on Thursday night. I must admit that it was been almost intoxicating being in the playoff hunt again. Playing meaningful games in March has reminded me just how exhilarating and exasperating it can be to watch hockey on the edge of your seat with your hands clenched from sheer tension. I don't need any finger nail clippers these days. I don't want this ride to stop...but it will if this team fails to win both of the next two games. It is do or die time.

Adding Injury to Injury

2010-03-10T00:27:03Z

Evander Kane is out 3 weeks with a fractured foot. Christoph Schubert is out 3-5 weeks with a hip injury. Expect Arturs Kulda or Chris Chelios to be called up this week to help on the blueline. Discuss!

Tuesday Morning Roundup

2010-03-09T14:49:22Z

The Thrashers just lost two heart wrenching games this weekend. This post from Battle of Alberta makes some interesting points about "consistency" and what that word really means.The Battle of Alberta: On Consistency

This is what comes to mind when I'm driving the boy to school in the morning, and I hear the guy doing the morning sports update declare that the Flames put forth "no effort last night" in "another inconsistent performance" losing to whoever. You know, for a tubbo in a windowless room to claim that a pro hockey team didn't try -- that's 18-20 guys who are in the top one-thousandth of hockey players who have ever tried to succeed at it -- is self-evidently shameful, but that's beside today's points. One of which is simply that sometimes people have a bad game despite preparing well and wanting it really, really bad. (God help the poor Olympic athlete who has the wrong bad day.)

Battle of California does a break down breaking how teams can exploit the difference between the salary cap numbers and the actual salary paid to players in a given season (two parter)

Ducks Gameday -- Rich Dad, Poor Dad - Battle of California
A look at the contrasting contract structures of J.S. Giguere and Jason Blake, and how both Toronto and Anaheim saved money by making the trade -- at least according to each team's primary currency.

Rich Dad, Poor Dad -- Part 2 - Battle of California
How Edmonton and Anaheim both saved money in the Visnovsky-Whitney trade. Also, a look back at Anaheim's last five post-trade-deadline rosters. The last four had impressive finishes to the season; can this year's version do it again?

Phoenix Coyotes GM Don Maloney has his team in a playoff position while spending the 2nd least out of the 30 teams in the NHL. He talks about managing a team that is owned by the NHL.

Chalk Talk with Don Maloney 2010 | Hip Shot Blog
Yesterday STHs got a chance to talk to Don Maloney, GM of the Phoenix Coyotes. How many hockey clubs do that I wonder? The Coyotes are fan friendly to the point

Thrashers GM Don Waddell talks to NHL.com down at the GM Meetings.

Thrashers' Don Waddell 1-on-1: 'I enjoy the pressure' - NHL.com - NHL Insider
NHL.com sat down with Don Waddell of the Atlanta Thrashers on Monday to discuss the GM meetings and the current state of his team.

Good Price on Tickets for CAR Road Trip

2010-03-08T17:42:49Z

Good Price on Tickets for CAR Road Trip

The Thrashers play up in Carolina at the end of the month. The Fan Club has lower bowl seats for $40 available if you're thinking about making the trip. Deadline is March 13th.

Thrashers Fail Against the Hard Trap Yet Again

2010-03-08T15:16:02Z

More photos » Gregory Smith - AP

8 days ago: Carolina Hurricanes center Brandon Sutter (16) takes a shot on goal as Atlanta Thrashers's Ron Hainsey (6) defends during the third period of an NHL hockey game at Philips Arena, Sunday, March 7, 2010, in Atlanta. The Hurricanes won 4-0. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

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I was incredibly disappointed by the Thrashers play on Sunday afternoon. I really had the urge to vent my spleen after that game but Timmyf beat me to that particular punch, so I'll try to be a bit more analytical in this post.

For as long as I can remember the Thrashers have ALWAYS struggled against teams that execute a hard trap in the neutral zone. A very simple explanation of the trap is that the defending team seeks to put all 5 of their skaters between the bluelines in the neutral zone which make it impossible to either skate with the puck or pass the puck in the neutral zone. The goal of the trap is to force the team to either a) play dump and chase style hockey or b) try to force passes that lead to turnovers and odd man rushes for the trapping team.

Because the Thrashers have built their roster around offense and passing the hard trap teams give them fits. If the Thrashers want to become a real playoff contender, then they must learn to make adjustments. If John Anderson wants to show that his uptempo systems work in the NHL, then his team must break the trap. The Thrashers tried to answer the trap by making perfect passes which played right into the hands of Carolina. To beat the trap you have to dump the puck deep and work as hard as they can to regain control in the offensive zone. It takes a LOT of hard work to beat the trap and too often the Thrashers went the lazy route and tried to make perfect passes.

The other thing that nearly made my head explode on Sunday was this: when playing a defensively sound team you must take one-timers on net. Over and over again when the Thrashers got the puck into the offensive zone but the player receiving a pass settled the puck before shooting it. Over and over again, this slight pause allowed the Carolina defense and goaltending to square to the shot and prevent a quality scoring chance. When playing a team that fills the shooting lanes you must shoot quickly! I was extremely disappointed that the team failed to make this adjustment. From upstairs it was bloody obvious that they needed more one timers--this should have been an in-game adjustment. Heck, they might have climbed back into the contest if they had simply started shooting one-times off the pass. EDIT: And I love Tobias Enstrom, but he simply must shoot the puck when he is wide open more often--every shot you pass up is a scoring chance that goes by the wayside.

Lastly the lack of discipline is really starting to hurt this team. The penalty killing has remained rather strong, but the Thrashers penchant for taking penalties keeps them from playing offense and it wears out their defense and goaltending. This season the Thrashers have been shorthanded about 4 times per game. But since the Kovalchuk trade the Thrashers have given the opposition way too many opportunities with the extra man.

vs WSH 5 times shorthanded
vs FLA 7 times shorthanded
vs COL 4 times shorthanded
vs MIN 4 times shorthanded
vs CHI 6 times shorthanded
vs FLA 8 times shorthanded
vs NYI 5 times shorthanded
vs TBL 4 times shorthanded
vs CAR 7 times shorthanded

The team average is 4 Short Handed situations per game, but since the big trade the Thrasher have not played a single game with FEWER than 4 SH situations and they three times they have allowed 7 or 8 extra man advantages to the opposition. On Sunday the Hurricanes played with the extra attackers of 13.5 minutes in a 60 hockey game--and they scored twice which abbreviated two of those PK situations. In the first period the Thrashers were killing for 6 of the first 20 minutes and Carolina gained a 1st period lead late in the period with the extra man.

I’m NOT someone who is a big believer in fate, especially in sports. Players make good or bad plays--it is on them not on fate. Just because the Thrashers were bad in the past doesn’t mean they can’t be better in the future. Problems can by fixed. Give Anderson some credit, he fixed the PK, they studied it and got it working correctly. But the problem for the Thrashers is that they have little TIME to fix these problems. They can’t wait until the off season to figure out how to break the trap. We need more desperation and we need more adjustments on the fly, otherwise the players will be playing golf yet again.

The Thrashers are scheduled to play yet another defensively sound team on Tuesday (Nashville Predators). Can they adjust? Will they exploit the shot opportunities that become available?

The Perils of Fandom: A Lament

2010-03-08T02:30:18Z

More photos » Gregory Smith - AP

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DISCLAIMER: This post is a rant. There are almost no stats. If you're looking for stats, you best keep looking...

The Thrashers fan sitting in front of me at this evening's Carolina Hurricanes - Atlanta Thrashers, uhm, "game," was wearing a Ronald Petrovicky sweater.

I felt like I was watching the Thrashers circa Ronald Petrovicky.

As a self-proclaimed "stats guy," I wish there were something I could do to explain the team's sudden collapse. After two very strong games coming out of the Olympic break, the Thrashers have posted back-to-back stinkers. Front two? 5 goals/game. Back two? 1 goal/game. How about goals allowed/game? 2.5 versus 5. What could possibly explain this?

Honestly, I'm not all that interested. As a fan, things are always better than they seem when things are going badly and never as good as they seem when things are going well. There is nothing so distorting as being a sports fan.Take Canes fans, for example: tonight, they probably think their team is great. 8 wins in 9 games? A shutout on the road against a playoff bubble team? They must be feeling pretty high.

This rant continues after the jump...

As a guy who comes from Buffalo, I know a bit about crushing disappointment. Buffalo's a city that has never won a major sports championship. Never. The Buffalo Sabres have gotten close a few times... (NO GOAL!!!!) So have the Buffalo Bills... (I'm thinking of you, Kicker Who Shall Not Be Named.) Despite the constant failure, the unending disaster that is Buffalo Professional Sports, you won't find many fans as passionate as Bills or Sabres fans. Heck, they drive down to Atlanta en masse to make Thrashers fans look like chumps a couple times a year.

We all know that sports in Atlanta are different. This is a city of transplants. This is a city that demands winning. With winning comes fans and passion and sellouts and all of the things that make sporting events great. With losing and mediocrity comes, well, tonight's game.

The announced attendance was 15,306. There were, eventually, a fair number of people in the stands. Clearly, several thousand couldn't be troubled to make the game on time... and on a Sunday, well, traffic is no excuse. Thousands more didn't bother to show up at all. Heck, I didn't even use all my tickets... I tried to give them away, but only succeeded in giving away 4 of my 6 extras. It's a sad state of affairs when you can't GIVE AWAY tickets to a professional sporting event.

I'm glad I couldn't find people for those other two seats. I tell friends all the time, "Come to a hockey game some time. It's the best live sport in the world. You'll be an instant fan if you come to a game."

I could barely sit through it myself and I schedule my life around hockey. My friends, had they decided to join me, would think I'm nuts. [They may already think that, but this certainly wouldn't have helped.]

It wasn't just the team that was flat: it was the fans too. Discount tickets bring in discount fans. Or, at least, free kids tickets with adult tickets seems like a backfiring strategy. Not that there was much to cheer about... Blueland Bandit even left early. (You know the guy: he's dressed up like a cowboy.) It was like watching a bunch of kids playing a hockey video game: a mess of turnovers, a complete lack of strategy. It simply wasn't a fun game to attend.

Sometimes I feel like the "relationship" fans have with this team is a bad one. We're there for the team when they are doing well, but when they lose, it's like they've cheated on us. We're constantly fighting nowadays. I don't know where things went so wrong... "Against the Hurricanes? How could you!? We had such a great thing going and you went out there and ruined it!"

"Well," the team responds, "in a city of millions of people, you can't find 18,545 to come to a weekend game?" Okay, that one hurt. "And worse, our television audience is somewhere in the thousands. Not tens of thousands. Just thousands. You realize that we need those revenues, right?"

"But but but," we counter, "that has to be a problem with the Nielsen system, at least in part. Plus, if you didn't turn out stinkers like tonight, folks might actually watch the games. And if more people watched the games, SportSouth might be willing to broadcast more of them in HD, bringing in an even wider audience."

"So you agree," says the team, "that part of the problem is not enough fans watching us on TV?"

And the argument goes on and on and on...

Even worse, these collapses fuel the fires of the "Make it Seven" train. Clearly, because the Thrashers have now lost TWO GAMES IN A ROW, they'll be moved to Winnipeg. They want a team so badly, they don't care if it's playing like garbage. The magical healing powers of Almighty Canada will fix it!! Excuse me while I puke up my pretzel dog and turn on the Oilers game... or the Leafs game...

As a blogger, it's easy to handle losses. It's easy to write about a bad team. That may be part of the reason why there are so many Thrashers bloggers, in fact. (Of course, there's also the large number of computer-savvy folks in Atlanta, the easy access to tickets to games, and the gap of a strong traditional media...)

As a fan, losses are tough. Losses are a kick to the gut. We were in the playoffs: we had two great wins coming out of the break. What happened? Are the old Thrashers back? The ones that couldn't get a lead, that couldn't hold a lead, that could lose all the games they were supposed to win?

After two games like we've played against Carolina and Tampa, it's hard to justify fighting traffic, paying for parking, and devoting my Tuesday evening to this team for the Nashville game. But I'll be there, ready to cheer, ready to support this team...

...if they'll just show up and give me something to cheer about.

Feel free to use the comments below to vent about the turn our team has taken. As Coach Anderson said in the post-game press conference, it's time to lick our wounds and move on. Tuesday's a new game and our team is still in it. Though we've fallen to 10th...

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Will you be going to Tuesday's game vs the Nashville Predators?

Lightning Postmortem, Canes Preview

2010-03-07T16:42:40Z

Chris O'Meara - AP

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Watching the Thrashers last night was pretty rough. In fact, I nearly turned the game off, and I almost never think about turning off a live hockey game.

It was a night where not a whole lot went right for the Thrashers: they were beat at even-strength, they were beat at special teams, they were beat on a penalty shot. They lost an important game to a division rival that clearly wanted the win more. After a strong start, the Thrashers ended up on a couple successive penalty kills and just never regained momentum.

In a game where the Thrashers were outscored 4-2 at even-strength, the "180 Line" of Little - Antropov - Bergfors ended up as a +3 with 3 points (that's +1, 1 point each) and a total of 12 shots.

12 shots! Compare that to the Peverley line (6 shots, -5, 1 point total) and the Kane/Artyukhin-Slater-Armstrong line (4 shots, -2, 2 points between the 4)... Clearly the Thrashers have found a solid top line. More on these guys after the jump...

The addition of Niclas Bergfors has been good for the Thrashers in general, but it's been especially good for Bryan Little. For comparison's sake, here's Bryan's stats before and after he began playing with Bergfors:

	GP	G	A	+/-	S%
Before	52	8	14	-8	7.6
After	8	2	5	+4	11.8

Those (obviously) aren't per game numbers, but at a per-game rate, he's obviously picked up the assists and total points. Goals are a bit closer, but those have picked up too: from 0.15 goals/game to 0.25. That's still on a relatively small sample size, but if you extend his current play across an 80-game season, Bryan ends up with 20 goals, 51 assists, and is +41. Those are the numbers we'd love to see from a 12th overall pick in 2006.

Bergfors has had absolutely phenomenal numbers with the Thrashers. Over an 82-game stretch, he projects out to 61 goals, 10 assists, and +50. That's not to say that I think Bergfos will score 60 goals next season, but it isn't unrealistic to expect 30 goals from him. If Bergfors scores 30 goals, he will almost single-handedly replace the scoring lost in the Ilya Kovalchuk trade. He places a little defense to boot!

So, despite the awful play from the team last night, there are positive things in the cards for the Thrashers, both this season and next. While the Montreal Canadiens have technically taken the 8th playoff spot from the Thrashers, if you sort the standings by Games Above/Below 0.500, the Thrashers are still sitting in a playoff spot.

6th: Flyers, +7
7th: Bruins, +6
8th: Thrashers, +3
9th: Canadiens, +2
10th: Rangers, Lightning, +1

A win tonight against the Hurricanes and a Canadiens loss to the Ducks will put the Thrashers back in 8th. (For those of you keeping track, you should be cheering for the Ducks, Penguins, Sabres, and Maple Leafs tonight.)

As Coach Anderson has begun saying, "every game is the most important game of the season." The Thrashers are going to need to avoid some of the long losing streaks that have plagued them for so many seasons. Win two, lose one, and make the playoffs. Win two, lose four, and we're done.

Tonight's Three Questions of the Game:

Can the Slater Line Perform without Evander Kane? The Thrashers lost Kane in the first period against Tampa after he blocked a shot with his foot. He was ruled out for tonight's game during the Tampa game. We'll have more information on Monday, so it's not time to freak out (yet). The injury has broken up what has been the Thrashers' most consistently strong line over the past couple months. During the Tampa game, Evgeny Artyukhin moved up to fill Kane's spot, and I imagine he'll be there again tonight (with one of White, Kozlov, or Boulton dressing to fill the open spot on the 4th line.) Artyukhin has the speed and size to be a force on that line, but he may not have the chemistry that Kane had.
Can the Thrashers Bounce Back in Goal? Johan Hedberg did not have a great game. Sure, he didn't get much help from his team, but he wasn't spectacular. If the Thrashers expect to make the playoffs and actually win a game this time, they're going to need some spectacular goaltending. So far this season, at least since November, it's been all Hedberg. He's going to need to be the game-stealing Hedberg... or Ondrej Pavelec is going to need to play like the Pavelec that shutout Detroit in The Joe.
Can the "180 Line" Keep From Doing Another 180? Consistency is tough, especially for young players. Both Bryan Little and Niclas Bergfors have been a little inconsistent. (Remember that, before coming to the Thrashers, Bergfors was pointless in 13 games and goalless in 17.) Nik Antropov doesn't have a reputation for being a consistent scorer. This line has been a major boon for the Thrashers because all three guys have been playing excellent hockey. If that changes, if one or two of these guys hit a slump, it could mean major problems for a team that needs to be firing on all cylinders to win.

If you don't already have tickets to the game, remember that the team is selling good tickets for just $20... with half of that going to the Haiti relief effort. Details are here on the Blueland Blog.

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