Bird Watchers Anonymous

Facebook Photo Contest

2010-03-18T13:49:21Z

Facebook Photo Contest

Are you a fan of Bird Watchers Anonymous on Facebook yet? If not, you're missing out! We just launched a photo contest for tonight's game against the Ottawa Senators. Here's the deal: take pictures of your favorite Philips Arena quirk (outdated scoreboards with bulbs out, facilities problems, pictures of former Thrashers) and post them on Facebook. We'll pick a winner an post it here on the front page. Good luck!

Birdwatchers Ranked #6 Hockey Blogs by Technorati!

2010-03-17T22:35:22Z

Birdwatchers Ranked #6 Hockey Blogs by Technorati!

I"m not certain how important this is, but it is always nice to receive some positive notice. SB Nation blogs take 7 of the top 10 slots.

Flyers Face Goalie Crisis

2010-03-17T20:24:03Z

Flyers Face Goalie Crisis

Remember back in 2005-06 when the Thrashers missed the playoffs because injuries exposed them to too many starts by AHL and ECHL level net minders? Well the Flyers might be on the verge of repeating that as a rash of goalie injuries has them scraping the barrel for goalies. If you're looking for a miracle return to playoff contention for the Thrashers this is probably the best working scenario.

RFA Targets for this summer?

2010-03-17T19:50:23Z

The UFA pool this summer is rather weak and it loaded with old guys who are near to their decline phase. As a Thrashers fan I want to see this team get better and avoid adding another Todd White or decline phase Slava Kozlov.

Another possible option would entail making an offer to a RFA (Restricted Free Agent). Tyler Dellow (aka Mudcrutch) makes the case that you don't want to make a offer to a RFA that would cost your club a high 1st rounder, but losing a high 2nd or 3rd rounder for a young sure fire NHL player is actually a solid bet. (The draft pick compensation awarded to a team that losses a RFA is determined by the amount of money that players signs for.)

If I ran an NHL team that had money to spend, I would be scouring the second and third lines of the really good teams that are tight to the cap, looking for players who might be able to play bigger roles and teams that can’t afford to pay people for potential, because they’re busy paying people for performance. Washington might be a pretty good example of that. The Caps are currently at $36.7MM for next year with an awful lot of guys to sign, including Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr.

The Capitals are just one of several teams facing a real salary crunch as their players seek raises and the cap holds steady. Other teams on this list include Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia and perhaps Montreal. He tosses out some more names that could be signed for amounts that would only cost a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

There are tons of these guys out there this summer - my non-exhaustive list includes Fehr, Andrew Ladd, Braydon Coburn, Ryan Parent, James Sheppard, Josh Harding, Blake Wheeler, Marc Staal, Kris Letang, Joe Pavelski, Bobby Ryan, David Perron, Erik Johnson, Martin Hanzal, Wojtek Wolski, Rob Schremp and Ryan Kesler. I’m sure that some of these players, you simply could not get for the money and picks that are available. I am, however, convinced that there will be some opportunity, particularly if the salary cap doesn’t go up by too much.

I'm sure the Flyers, Bruins and Blackhawks will be dialing Don Waddell offering to dump some of their bloated contracts onto his roster. If Kubina doesn't return, I have the team payroll sitting at about $41-42 million after Atlanta's RFAs are re-signed. Rather than accept one of these fat contracts, the better route would be to make Chicago pay for their Campbell and Huet contractual errors by bidding up the price of their RFAs. Make them pay for their past free agents mistakes by pricing their own players out of their budget.

Taking such a route is unlikely to win any friends among fellow GMs in the league, but last time a checked none of these other GMs were doing the Thrashers any favors. It's a hyper competitive environment and only half the teams make the post-season and only 1 teams finishes on top. It's not a popularity contest. Do I think the Thrashers will take this approach? No. Would they be wise to take a hard look at making some RFA offers? Yes.

No Coaching Change this Season

2010-03-15T22:10:45Z

No Coaching Change this Season

In a move that can only be described as "more shocking than the Cloverfield monster," GM Don Waddell has stated that there will be no coaching change this year.

Duh.

Top 3 Draft Pick Closer than Playoffs for Thrashers

2010-03-15T16:32:39Z

After winning just a single point in their last six games the Thrashers have dropped down into the basement of the NHL standings. If the season ended today the Thrashers would pick 6th or 7th (they are tied with FLA in Win %). However, the teams at the bottom are very tightly bunched and if the Thrashers tailspin continues they could easily end up with the 3rd overall draft pick. Carolina has been red hot and the Thrashers play them twice more, Atlanta could easily "catch" the Hurricanes for the 3rd worst position by the end of the season.

EDM 49
TOR 58
CAR 64
NYI 65
CBJ 65
FLA 66
ATL 67
TBL 68

Now, I realize that most fans are probably thinking "enough with the high draft picks!" But consider this for a moment. They key to building a contender is assembling a foundation of young talent that will continue to grow and improvement over a 5-6 period as they enter their peak performance years. The Chicago Blackhawks and LA Kings have done exactly that and should be powerhouses for the next few years as a result. The Thrasher have had a handful of young and talented stars but they have never had more than a handful at any one point in time.

If the Thrashers were to sneak into the top three picks they would have a shot at drafting one of the top scoring talents in the 2010 NHL Draft: Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall or a solid top six prospect like Nino Niederreiter. Each of these prospects might be able to step into the NHL at age 18 and play next season. The Thrashers prospect pool is deep in several positions, but scoring forwards are always in short supply. Jeremy Morin probably needs another season in juniors to work on his skating and Eric O'Dell might need a year or two in the AHL

If the Thrashers were lucky enough to land either Seguin, Hall or Niederriter those players would be comparatively cheap during their 3 year entry level contract. They could fill out a top six spot and leave the team money to go add a free agent scorer in the off season.

What are the odds of picking in the top three? Here are the Club Sports Odds of Atlanta finished in each draft slot at the end of the year.

01% chance
10% chance
16% chance
21% chance
22% chance
17% chance

If you add up the probabilities there is a 27% chance (better than 1 in 4) of the Atlanta finishing in the bottom three. Of course finished 3rd worse doesn't guaranteee the 3rd pick because of the draft lottery. The Thrashers could move down one slot (if a team behind them won) or up to the #1 pick if they won the lottery. The winner can move up a maximum of 4 spots in the draft order so the 4th and 5th place slot teams have a small chance of picking in the top three--but it is only a small chance. (4th place as an 11% of winning the lottery and 5th place an 8% chance of winning). The odds of the Thrashers finishing in the bottom five are 70% right now. So there is a very good chance that we will be waiting on pins and needles on lottery day.

As painful as it is to fall out of the playoff race this late in the season, adding another elite talent could add another young building block to the foundation of the team. There are only two phases in pro sports. If you're not contending you're rebuilding.

New Ways to Interact: Facebook

2010-03-15T01:33:12Z

We get pretty good traffic here at Bird Watchers Anonymous, but that doesn't show much in the comments. We've got a pretty dedicated crowd of regulars, but there's a lot of folks who just come to read the articles. If you want to chime in, you've got to sign up for an account here at sbnation.com (which I highly recommend you do...)

Still, we think that the more ways we give you to interact with us and with each other, the better. To this end, I've gone and done the unthinkable: I've created a BWA Facebook page.

You can get to it right here.

There are often things worth mentioning or posting that aren't quite enough for a story here - up until now, we've used Twitter for that, and will likely continue to do so, but Facebook will be another avenue for sharing information.

So what should you, our loyal readers, do? First, sign up for an account here and start commenting! Then go ahead and become a fan on Facebook and invite your friends.

Poll

A Facebook Page?

Blogger Day: Coyotes at Thrashers

2010-03-14T16:30:08Z

Hey folks!

Today is another one of the Atlanta Thrashers' fabulous BLOGGER DAYS. "Blogger Days" are days when the Thrashers give folks like myself sort-of-kind-of press access to the games! We get fancy paper temporary press passes and almost limitless access to the facility. They steer us clear of most of the players and coaches (with the exception of a couple - tonight we get Nicklas Bergfors) but let us partake in the free snacks and beverages!

I've only had the opportunity to go once before, so I'm looking forward to this evening. I'll try to come back here with extra information and tidbits as they happen.

It's much easier to comment than post here at BWA from my phone (which I'll be using a lot), so expect most of the stuff to show up in the comments.

Reminder: Internet Radio Discussion Tomorrow Morning

2010-03-13T03:00:29Z

Hey folks, just a quick reminder that the crew here from BWA will be discussing what went oh-so-wrong for the Thrashers' playoff hopes and if there's anything we can look forward to in 2010-2011.

You can get to the show right here.

Just a reminder: you can leave questions and comments for us here or call in (to the number provided on the page) during the show.

Revealing Picture after Columbus Loss

2010-03-12T18:46:44Z

Picture: by Mr Seats of the Chicken.

Wolves Playoff Roster Finalized

2010-03-12T16:08:30Z

Wolves Playoff Roster Finalized

The AHL has rules about who is eligible to participate in the playoffs. The Wovles "clear day" roster has been set, click on the headline to see who will be eligible. Chad Denny and Scot Lehman didn't make the list. Grant Lewis was loaned to antoher AHL team to open up ice time for him.

Free Falling Thrashers Playoff Chances Collapse

2010-03-12T13:20:23Z

More photos » Terry Gilliam - AP

7 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Chris Chelios (24) skates during warmups before an NHL hockey game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Thursday, March 11, 2010, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Terry Gilliam)

Browse more photos »

The Atlanta Thrashes lost 2-1 in Columbus last night and effectively eliminated themselves from playoff contention. In the seven games following the trade of Ilya Kovalchuk the team won 10 of a possible 14 points to push their playoff odds to 60%. That hot stretch was followed up by an ice cold 4 consecutive losses in which the offense completely dried up.

When the the Thrashers were winning the other playoff teams were struggling which helped Atlanta climb up into the 8th position in the standing. But now the tide has reversed and the other playoff contenders are winning as Atlanta has lost--which has accelerated the team's decline.

As the graph above illustrates, the real turning point in the season came not in the last four games, but back in late December / early January when the team went 11 games with just one win and three OT/SO losses. During that 11 game free fall the Thrashers winning percentage was an expansion quality 23%. Even good teams have bad streaks during the long season. But the Thrashers inability to staunch the bleeding during December was catastrophic to for their playoff hopes.

What went wrong during that 11 game stretch? The team kept the shots under control (342-349), but were outscored 28-49 during that period. That translates into 2.55 GFA and a 4.45 GAA (If you throw out the 8-1 loss to WSH the team GAA is still a lousy 4.10) The offensive efficiency wasn't great (8.2 Shot %) but the goaltending really fell apart (.870 SV%). And that's really where the season was lost.

The moves and non-moves made at the Trade Deadline contributed almost nothing. Veterans Maxim Afinogenov, Slava Kozlov and Colby Armstrong were all retained. Afinogenov had two costly turnovers that contributed directly to the Carolina loss and Armstrong took a penalty that proved very costly in the Nashville. Deadline acquisitions MacArthur and Artuykhin both scored in the win over the Islanders and then promptly became invisible men. Chris Chelios was signed and has played just one game but he was on the ice for both goals against and redirected the first goal into the net.

With the benefit of more data it appears that the Thrashers were simply hot after the Kovalchuk trade and now they're cold. The team is not as bad as their 4 game losing streak would indicate, nor are they as good as their hot streak after the Kovalchuk trade. Baring a miracle 6 consecutive win streak, the season is toast and it will soon be time to think about draft position (7th overall as of this morning) and free agency and re-signing RFAs (Bergfors, Pavelec).

This is only the 3rd time in 10 years that the Thrashers have had a realistic shot at the playoffs in March (qualified just once). Their run should have lasted longer in my opinion, but the team work ethic was very inconsistent for most of the season. Far too often the team only played hard for half a game or just one period. They threw away points that were there for the taking. They should have been in this playoff race until the final days of the season in my opinion. They had the talent to compete, but lacked the will. I hope that bothers them as much as it bothers me.

Ranking College Prospects

2010-03-10T22:27:45Z

Ranking College Prospects

Chris Dilks composed a Top 50 NHL Prospects list in the WCHA and CCHA. It was interesting seeing his take on who he thinks has the most promise. Zach Redmond is the highest ranked Thrasher. Daulton Leveille sneaks in at the end. John Albert missed the cut. One of the top undrafted prospects could end up going right around where the Thrashers pick in June.

Let's Call a Meeting! BWA Radio Show Saturday @ 11am

2010-03-10T18:33:25Z

Let's Call a Meeting! BWA Radio Show Saturday @ 11am

The Atlanta Thrashers have been wildly inconsistent since returning from the Olympic break. After working themselves into a playoff position, the team has seemed to fall apart. In an attempt to stabilize the team, they've recalled 48-year old defenseman Chris Chelios from the AHL Chicago Wolves to provide veteran leadership. Will the Thrashers make the playoffs? If not, what's in store for the team and management? The writers from Bird Watchers Anonymous break it down... live!

Chicago Wolves on NHL Network Again

2010-03-10T16:14:25Z

Chicago Wolves on NHL Network Again

Curious about the Thrashers AHL prospects? Make sure to watch on Sunday March 28th when the Wolves play Texas.

Chris Chelios getting called up by the Atlanta Thrashers. They need leadership badly; apparently...

2010-03-10T15:56:42Z

Chris Chelios getting called up by the Atlanta Thrashers. They need leadership badly; apparently he's been awesome with the Wolves.

Sportsnet.ca's Arash Madani

Does Tobias Enstrom Not Shoot Enough?

2010-03-10T15:00:43Z

More photos » Gregory Smith - AP

Browse more photos »

"Shoot!" yells the woman behind me.

"That Toby Enstrom, somebody needs to teach him to shoot the damn puck," offers her companion.

"If Toby shot more, the powerplay would be less predictable and more likely to score!" says the conventional wisdom. "But everybody knows that Toby will just pass. It's so obvious!"

It's hard to be the person who pops in to suggest that maybe, just maybe, the guy who's taken himself from an 8th round (239th overall) draft pick to the cornerstone of the Atlanta Thrashers blueline just might know what he's doing. Of course, there's no hard and fast rule for when to shoot the puck and when to maintain possession, but most hockey fans live and die by the Gretzky rule:

You miss 100% of the shots you never take.

True. But also terribly misleading. I'll try to solve this riddle with stats... after the jump.

First, let's set some ground-rules:

We're only talking powerplay here. It's too difficult to filter out all the variables at even-strength. On the powerplay, we've got a pretty good idea of what's going on. Plus, this is when people whine the most anyway... (And I'm only looking at 5-on-4 PP stats.)
We're limiting this discussion to only four defensemen: Tobias Enstrom, Pavel Kubina, Ron Hainsey, and Zach Bogosian. There's just not enough data for the other guys, including Johnny Oduya.
The goal is to show whether shooting more from the blueline on the powerplay helps or hurts the team's performance.

If you take a look at the basic powerplay stats, you'll notice a few things. Enstrom is the most effective at picking up points by far: his 3.24 points/60 compares quite favorably to Hainsey, Kubina, and Bogosian (2.37, 2.31, 2.02 respectively.) He's second in goals forced/60, a measure of how effective the entire unit is. (Kubina: 5.55, Enstrom: 5.26, Bogosian: 4.04, Hainsey: 2.37.)

If you take the first measure and divide it by the second, you get points/goal forced, a measure that shows what percentage of the time the player gets a point when the powerplay unit gets a goal. You could perhaps call this the "participation rate." Enstrom sits at 62%, compared to Kubina at 42%. (Hainsey and Bogosian may not have played enough on the PP for this to be a useful stat.)

Perhaps more interesting is the graph you get when you compare the powerplay unit's shots (per 60) with their goals (again, per 60). The operating assumption is that more shots means more goals, right? About that...

As it turns out, more shots seems to mean less goals. The powerplay unit's shooting percentage absolutely plummets when Zach Bogosian or Ron Hainsey are on the ice. It's quite high when Kubina or Enstrom are out there. That split is not particularly surprising. Isn't that the stereotype? Europeans shoot less and hold the puck more? They're more crafty? (Except a Mister Alexander Ovechkin, of course.)

Remember this next time Toby passes rather than attempt a shot on an unscreened goalie with a few bodies in the way to block the shot: you may not like it, but he's effective. More effective than Human Puck Cannon Ron Hainsey. (Yes, the point on the graph to the far right is Hainsey.) You don't score on 100% of the shots you don't take, but you also don't score when you fire the puck at a penalty-killer's shin.

Thrashers Outplay Predators-Lose Game and Perhaps Playoffs

2010-03-10T12:33:47Z

More photos » John Bazemore - AP

8 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg cools down after giving up a goal to the Nashville Predators in the first period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, March 9, 2010, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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If the hockey gods were just, the Atlanta Thrashers would have won last night. With their backs against the wall the team put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season. In my previous post, I questioned whether this team could adjust--and last night I watched them adjust:

They released their shots MUCH more quickly.
The recognized that the opposing goalie was allowing rebounds on nearly every shot and they threw pucks at the net.
They were patient and made D-to-D passes in their own zone until they could set up a proper breakout.
They managed to get through the neutral zone consistently against a good defensive team.
Their goalie played well and gave them a chance to win.
They battled hard for pucks along the wall and for rebounds in front of the net.
They were unselfish with the puck and moved it to the open man.

If life was fair they would have exited that game with 2 points, but life is not always fair. Many times during this season the Thrashers only played hard in the 3rd period and came away with points. Last night they played hard for three periods and ended up with nothing to show for it. If the team played with that level of intensity all the time they would not be a desperate position.

Instead, the Predators scored a power play goal off of a nice play and they got a gift goal courtesy of a mistake by Mark Popovic. After the game he said it bounced on him. It might have, but he simply has to bear down and limit the damage in that situation. He could have at least kicked or pushed the puck out of danger. At worst, Popovic could have probably saved a goal by hooking or tripping the attacking Predator player. Taking a penalty would have decreased the Predators chances of getting a goal from 30-40% (penalty shot success rate) to 22% (power play percentage).

Would Schubert have made the same mistake? Would Kulda have handled it better? There is no way to know the answer to that question. It would be grossly unfair to say the Thrashers blew their playoff chances because of a single bad play. The Thrashers were in this precarious position because of their free fall back in December and their weak effort in the two games prior. If you're going to point fingers there are plenty of scapegoats to go around.

The thing that frustrates me the most is that the team played so hard and came up so empty. Last night was easily one of the five most entertaining games of the season. My heart was in my throat the whole night. They stormed all around the net and just couldn't catch a break. At one point Antropov carried the puck behind the net and Ellis came totally out of the net. All Nik needed to do was loft the puck off the body of the Thrasher standing in the crease and it would have deflected into the yawning net--that would have tied the game up.

This was the closest thing to playoff intensity we've seen at Philips Arena in a long time. But this is March and there are no moral victories anymore. It is crunch time and you either win those crucial points or you don't. There are no gold stars for good effort. Here's what I believe: if the Thrashers played as hard as they did last night, they would make the playoffs. But I have no reason to think they can put forward that effort level on a consistent basis after watching them stumble against Tampa and Carolina this week.

So what would it take? I think 89 points will probably be enough to get into the post-season. The Thrashers April schedule is brutal I don't expect them to do much better than 2-2-1 next month. That means the Thrashers need to go 9-3 in the remaining games in March. That's a .750 Winning Percentage the rest of the month. They need to win 3 games for every 1 they lose in regulation. To do that would require a very high effort level every night the rest of the way, and honestly I just can't see this roster sustaining that for the next 12 games.

The only other path to the post-season requires that they just get lucky. They need Boston to fall apart with Marc Savard sidelined with a concussion. They need Montreal to succumb to the intense pressure that comes with playing in that particular market. They need the Rangers to stumble. But such a scenario is highly improbable--three teams all struggling with the playoffs on the line? I'm not holding my breath for that to happen.

But this particular string has not yet been played out completely. There is still a small chance for success. I'll be there on Twitter living and dying with every big play on Thursday night. I must admit that it was been almost intoxicating being in the playoff hunt again. Playing meaningful games in March has reminded me just how exhilarating and exasperating it can be to watch hockey on the edge of your seat with your hands clenched from sheer tension. I don't need any finger nail clippers these days. I don't want this ride to stop...but it will if this team fails to win both of the next two games. It is do or die time.

Adding Injury to Injury

2010-03-10T00:27:03Z

Evander Kane is out 3 weeks with a fractured foot. Christoph Schubert is out 3-5 weeks with a hip injury. Expect Arturs Kulda or Chris Chelios to be called up this week to help on the blueline. Discuss!

Tuesday Morning Roundup

2010-03-09T14:49:22Z

The Thrashers just lost two heart wrenching games this weekend. This post from Battle of Alberta makes some interesting points about "consistency" and what that word really means.The Battle of Alberta: On Consistency

This is what comes to mind when I'm driving the boy to school in the morning, and I hear the guy doing the morning sports update declare that the Flames put forth "no effort last night" in "another inconsistent performance" losing to whoever. You know, for a tubbo in a windowless room to claim that a pro hockey team didn't try -- that's 18-20 guys who are in the top one-thousandth of hockey players who have ever tried to succeed at it -- is self-evidently shameful, but that's beside today's points. One of which is simply that sometimes people have a bad game despite preparing well and wanting it really, really bad. (God help the poor Olympic athlete who has the wrong bad day.)

Battle of California does a break down breaking how teams can exploit the difference between the salary cap numbers and the actual salary paid to players in a given season (two parter)

Ducks Gameday -- Rich Dad, Poor Dad - Battle of California
A look at the contrasting contract structures of J.S. Giguere and Jason Blake, and how both Toronto and Anaheim saved money by making the trade -- at least according to each team's primary currency.

Rich Dad, Poor Dad -- Part 2 - Battle of California
How Edmonton and Anaheim both saved money in the Visnovsky-Whitney trade. Also, a look back at Anaheim's last five post-trade-deadline rosters. The last four had impressive finishes to the season; can this year's version do it again?

Phoenix Coyotes GM Don Maloney has his team in a playoff position while spending the 2nd least out of the 30 teams in the NHL. He talks about managing a team that is owned by the NHL.

Chalk Talk with Don Maloney 2010 | Hip Shot Blog
Yesterday STHs got a chance to talk to Don Maloney, GM of the Phoenix Coyotes. How many hockey clubs do that I wonder? The Coyotes are fan friendly to the point

Thrashers GM Don Waddell talks to NHL.com down at the GM Meetings.

Thrashers' Don Waddell 1-on-1: 'I enjoy the pressure' - NHL.com - NHL Insider
NHL.com sat down with Don Waddell of the Atlanta Thrashers on Monday to discuss the GM meetings and the current state of his team.