Blogging The Boys

"Cowboys' Sean Lee Is A Pro Bowler" And Other Things We Learned In Mike Mayocks Conference Call

2012-02-16T20:18:10Z

The NFL Network’s lead NFL Draft Analyst and Scouting Combine head honcho Mike Mayock took part in a conference call with national media members yesterday in the lead up to the 2012 NFL Scouting Combine.

Mayock does these calls every year prior to the Combine, but unlike last year, the NFL Network didn't provide a transcript of the call this time, so you'll have to make do with my hastily scribbled transcript below - or listen to a 45 minute part of the call here.

While members of the Dallas media may have been in attendance, no specific questions were asked about the Cowboys in the segment, so Mayock didn't address the Cowboys specifically, but he did talk about a couple of players and topics that are of interest to Cowboys fans.

The soundbite of the day (for me) may have come when he mentioned Sean Lee as a Pro Bowler when he talked about Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly:

Think about Sean Lee. That’s the best comparison. Sean Lee went in the second round to Dallas but has become a Pro Bowl inside linebacker, and I think [Luke Kuechly] is very similar, has none of the knee issues Sean had and is a slightly better athlete.

After the break, find out what Mayock has to say about depth along the defensive line, offensive linemen and a selection of players that have been (at times) hotly debated on these boards.

The following is all transcribed verbatim from Mike Mayock's conference call audio. Any mistakes or omissions are mine.

Defensive line depth: Defensive tackle is really, really deep this year … I’ve got anywhere from 5-7 first-round grades on defensive tackles. They’re not all going [in the first round]. Probably four or five will go in the first round. … Conversely, not big on the defensive ends.

Cornerback depth: There’s three corners everybody kind of thinks are first round corners and then after that its kinda pick your flavor.

Interior O-line: One of the best classes in this draft are the interior offensive linemen. DeCastro for me is a first round interior offensive lineman. Peter Kontz, the center from Wisconsin is a late one to mid two. I think Zeitler from Wisconsin is also in that same range. And you might be able to get a guy like Ben Jones from Georgia late in the second round. I think there’s a lot of flexibility with that interior linemen draft. In the first three rounds you can get a lot of quality at center or either guard.

On Janoris Jenkins: Janoris Jenkins is one of the ultimate boom or bust guys in this draft. He’s got great ability but has slid a little bit just because of off-the-field [issues].

On Whitney Mercilus: He’s a fairly gifted kid, he’s got some natural pass rush ability. But because he’s an underclassman, we have no official measurements of him. We need to see how big the kid is before we talk about 4-3 or 3-4 or what position. What’s he weigh, how long is he, what’s his arm length – all those things we’ll find out next week.

As far as what I’ve seen on tape, he’s a little bit of a one-year wonder. People will want to know where he was before this past year. Again, natural pass rusher, I don’t think he is stout at the point of attack, I’m anxious to see what he weighs. I think he’s one of those borderline late one to mid two type guys and I think where he’ll be helped though is that there aren’t a whole lot of really strong DEs and OLBs in this draft. So that could push him up a little bit.

On Chase Minnifield: I like Minnifield. Good bloodlines, athletic kid, smart kid, plays well. I’ve got a second round grade on him right now

On Vontaze Burfict: Burfict I’m not a fan of at all …What I like to do is say, forget about all those penalties, all that stuff that surrounds him. What kind of football player is he? And I came away unimpressed. From my perspective, if he gets a chance at a blow-up hit - where he’s going to knock somebody into the next century – he’s going to take it and it’s going to look really good. That’s where he’s impressive. When he sees something, comes downhill and blows it up, it’s really good.

However, the other major percentage of the time, his instincts aren’t good, he gets enveloped by big bodies, he runs around blocks. For a big, strong guy, he’s nowhere near as good at the point of attack as I thought he would be. So that’s even before you factor in all the other elements. So from my perspective, I don’t see first round at all.

Players who need the Combine to up their stock:

LaMichael James: A player we’ve only seen in one type of offense.
From the wide receivers, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jefferey and Mohamed Sanu for sure all need big combines and another one is Jeff Fuller from Texas A&M. He is another one of those big-body guys who struggles to separate.
All those tight ends. I don’t have a first round tight end. They’re all kind of the quick, Hernandez-type people. They’re not in-line type blockers. There’s not a whole lot you can do at the Combine if you’re a tight end except run fast.
I mentioned Luke Kuechly. If he runs 4.7, in that range, he’s a top 15 pick. If he runs 4.8 or worse, there’s going to be a problem.
For the defensive backs, it’s all about speed and quickness. A guy like Leonard Johnson from Iowa State, I think he plays better than he will time. If he times poorly, he could be a fourth round pick instead of a second round pick. Trumaine Johnson from Montana, he’s a looong, physical corner. is he a corner or a safety? He might be Malcolm Jenkins. Harrison Smith from Notre Dame. A lot of people think he’s not going to run well. I think he’s going to surprise people. He’s a really good football player. I’ve got a second round grade on him.

Wes Bunting Mock Draft No. 3: Dre Kirkpatrick To Cowboys

2012-02-16T17:00:48Z

Hot on the heels of yesterday's Mel Kiper mock draft comes Wes Bunting's latest offering, mock draft version 3.0.

Bunting, of course, knows how to deliver a mock draft that gets people talking, and in his third iteration of his mock draft, he offers the third prospect for the Cowboys after having the Cowboys select David DeCastro in v 1.0 and Peter Konz in v 2.0. But what makes this third version highly auspicious is what happened last year:

After mocking Robert Quinn to the Cowboys in his mock v 1.0 and Prince Amukamara in v 2.0, he hit the nail on the head in v 3.0, mocking Tyron Smith to the Cowboys. Will Bunting be able to repeat that feat this year?

With the 14th pick in the 2012 draft, the Bunting has the Cowboys taking Dre Kirkpatrick. Bunting writes:

The Cowboys have to be thrilled with both Kirkpatrick and Stanford OG David DeCastro still on the board. However, I see them opting for the big corner because of the overall priority of the position.

So this year's mock 3.0 is doubly auspicious, not only because of last year's pick, but also because both Kirkpatrick and DeCastro are available for the Cowboys - and if those two drop that far, other prospects must have taken their place in the top 13. After the break, we look at who those players are.

Earlier this week, our own Tom Ryle took a look at how 12 different mock drafts averaged out and derived the following list of players that could be considered the 'consensus top 13'.

Rank	Player	POS	School
1	Andrew Luck	QB	Stanford
2	Matt Kalil	OT	USC
3	Robert Griffin III	QB	Baylor
4	Morris Claiborne	CB	LSU
5	Justin Blackmon	WR	Oklahoma St.
6	Trent Richardson	RB	Alabama
7	Quinton Coples	DE	North Carolina
8	Riley Reiff	OT	Iowa
9	David DeCastro	OG	Stanford
10	Michael Brockers	DT	LSU
11	Dre Kirkpatrick	CB	Alabama
12	Johnathan Martin	OT	Stanford
13	Devon Still	DT	PSU

In his conference call with media representatives yesterday, Mike Mayock said that "the first seven to eight picks are pretty solid, then after that comes some questions." Wes Bunting seems to agree, as he has also has the top eight players in the table above in his top 13. After that, the situation gets a little less clear.

Here's how Bunting's top 13 differs versus the consensus table above:

At pick #9, the Miami Dolphins select Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill.
At pick #11, the Kansas City Chiefs pick Ohio State OT Mike Adams
At pick #12, the Seattle Seahawks draft Southern Cal DE Nick Perry
And dropping out of Bunting's top 13 are Kirkpatrick, DeCastro and Stanford OT Johnathan Martin.

It seems like every year, the draft sees some late-rising QBs, OTs and DE's. Bunting's mock draft is an indicator that that may happen again this year, and that is a good thing. The Cowboys can only hope that more names rise and push some higher rated prospects their way. The names in the bullet list above will bear watching over the coming weeks and perhaps there will be enough movement in the top ten to even push Quinton Coples the Cowboys' way.

2012 NFL Draft: Mike Mayock Updates Top 5 Players Per Position

2012-02-16T14:18:29Z

Yesterday, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock released an updated version of his top five players per position heading into the Combine. You can find the full rankings here, but we'll focus only the positions of need for the Cowboys and any changes to the ranking since Mayock's initial version from January.

Defensive Ends/OLBs: An improved pass rush is an obvious position to focus on as a Cowboys fan. Anthony Spencer's future with the Cowboys is still up in the air, and with the amount of interest the Cowboys showed in J.J. Watt last year, an upgraded pass rush will certainly be one of the offseason objectives for the Cowboys. Whether this upgrade will happen at OLB or DE is the topic of much debate, but since Mayock conveniently lumps the two together, we'll talk about both in one go.

Rank	Previous Ranking (1/24)	Updated Rank (2/14)	Change
1	Quinton Coples, North Carolina	Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
2	Melvin Ingram, South Carolina	Quinton Coples, North Carolina
3	Whitney Mercilus, Illinois	Andre Branch, Clemson
4	Nick Perry, USC	Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
5 (tie)	Chandler Jones, Syracuse	Vinny Curry, Marshall
5 (tie)	Andre Branch, Clemson	Nick Perry, USC

Most mocks and rankings have Coples as a top ten prospect and Ingram going somewhere in the second half of the first round, so it comes as a slight surprise to see Ingram move up ahead of Coples. Perhaps Mayock is already anticipating a better Combine performance by Ingram.

The same thing could probably be said of mock draft favorite Vince Curry, who is expected to put up some pretty impressive combine numbers, and rises accordingly. Overall, there's lots of movement in this positional ranking, and if you're wondering where Alabama's Courtney Upshaw is, Mayock put him at the top of the inside linebacker ranking. Upshaw did play OLB in Alabama's 3-4 defense, so from a Cowboys point of view he should be on this list, probably battling Ingram and Coples for the top spot.

After the break, we look at offensive linemen, corners and defensive tackles.

Offensive Linemen

Rank	Previous Ranking (1/24)	Updated Rank (2/14)	Change
1	David DeCastro, Stanford	David DeCastro, Stanford
2	Peter Konz, Wisconsin	Peter Konz, Wisconsin
3	Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin	Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
4	Cordy Glenn, Georgia	Amini Silatolu, Midwestern State
5	Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State	Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State

No change in the top three in Mayock's updated list. He does move Cordy Glenn out of the guard group into the tackle group and replaces him with Amini Silatolu out of Midwestern State, who's seen his draft stock rise in many rankings.

Either way, chances are that one of the five guys on the list will be a Cowboy after the draft. David DeCastro remains the fan favorite for now, the other names are also worthy of consideration in a trade down scenario or with second or perhaps even third round picks.

Cornerbacks

Cornerback is easily one of the Cowboys' biggest needs for next year. And with multiple spots needing to be filled, it's likely that the Cowboys will address this position both in free agency and the draft.

Rank	Previous Ranking (1/24)	Updated Rank (2/14)	Change
1	Morris Claiborne, LSU	Morris Claiborne, LSU
2	Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama	Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
3	Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska	Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
4	Leonard Johnson, Iowa State	Trumaine Johnson, Montana
5	Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama	Leonard Johnson, Iowa State

Dre Kirkpatrick makes the biggest leap in this ranking, while Alfonzo Dennard drops out of the top five completely after his lackluster showing at the Senior Bowl practices. Cornerback is likely believed to have some of the best depth in this draft, so the Cowboys may well go after corners in the later rounds also, but these are some pretty enticing names on Mayock's top five list.

While there is little discussion about the top three corners on Mayocks list, his choice of Trumaine Johnson and Leonard Johnson at numbers four and five is interesting. Wes Bunting lists the two at 11th and 15th respectively, CBSSports has them 6th and 9th and Sports Illustrated's Tony Pauline lists them as the 9th and 12th best cornerbacks. Mayock does not provide any explanations for his his selections, and while it would be interesting to see why he likes the two Johnsons more than Stephon Gilmore or Brandon Boykin, the differences in opinion among these draft analysts may very well be a sign of the depth at this position.

Defensive Tackles

I’ll also include defensive tackles here because many Cowboys fans like the idea of some big guys in the middle of the defensive line, but it remains to be seen whether the Cowboys have any interest in a top five defensive tackle.

Rank	Previous Ranking (1/24)	Updated Rank (2/14)	Change
1	Devon Still, Penn State	Michael Brockers, LSU
2	Jerel Worthy, Michigan State	Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
3	Michael Brockers, LSU	Dontari Poe, Memphis
4	Brandon Thompson, Clemson	Devon Still, Penn State
5 (tie)	Fletcher Cox, Mississippi St.	Fletcher Cox, Mississippi St.
	Dontari Poe, Memphis	Kendall Reyes, UConn
	- -	Brandon Thompson, Clemson

Mike Mayock makes it official and jumps on the Michael Brockers train. That a player heads this list who has played 27 college games, and recorded only 2 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in those games, heads this list is nothing short of astonishing.

In other developments, if you were harboring uncouth thoughts of drafting Dontari Poe as a NT for the Cowboys in the second round, now is a good time to think about other second-round targets.

It's not clear how big the gaps between the individual players on these lists are, or which round Mayock projects them for. But it does give us a better feeling for the overall positional rankings.

Mel Kiper's Latest Mock Says Cowboys Play It Safe With Alabama S Mark Barron

2012-02-16T01:00:19Z

There's no secret that the Cowboys could use some help on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary. This past season did see marked improvement over the 2010 campaign, but there is a large talent void that needs to be filled with some combination of free agency and the amateur draft.

Of course, player draft projections will change dynamically once the Scouting Combine gets underway later next week. For now, the only thing evaluators have to go off of is that pesky, irrelevant game performance stuff. It's so overrated. [/sarcasm]

ESPN's Mel Kiper has been doing this draft stuff for years. While, as Rabble pointed out in his 'Scouting the Scouts' piece he's never been employed by an NFL front office, he has probably played the largest role in why the draft process has become must-see TV. He's earned his reputation, for better or worse, to be discussed when he releases his mocks.

With his Version 2.0, he has Dallas taking Alabama S Mark Barron. The article is behind the Insider pay wall, so we can't link you to much, but Barron would be the first first-round safety for Dallas since the drafting of Roy Williams.

Dallas got shredded far too often with the passing game in 2011, and while Barron might be a very slight reach here in terms of his current grade, he's a perfect fit for the Cowboys. I have "defensive back" on my sheet as a big need in Big D, meaning they can't go wrong with either the top safety or the top cornerback here, and Barron offers the most value. Better in run support right now than he is in coverage, Barron could get better against the pass, but he's an upgrade for the Cowboys.

Barron is the 22nd ranked player overall according to Drafttek.com, 26th according to NFLDraftScout.com, but ranks high at 15th according to Wes Bunting at the National Football Post.

Follow the jump to see where other prospects that have been linked to Dallas have been slotted by Mel.

According to Mel, Dallas will pass up on the following prospects in order to take the safety.

17. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB - Cincinnati Bengals

20. Whitney Mercilus, DE - Tennessee Titans

21. David DeCastro, OG - Cincinnati Bengals

23. Janoris Jenkins, CB - Detroit Lions

27. Vinny Curry, DE - New England Patriots

29. Peter Konz, C - Baltimore Ravens

So, would you pass up on the players listed above to draft the best safety of a shallow safety class? As I mentioned in the comments section of my One Man's Gang article, there is a deep safety class emerging for the 2013 draft. Do you think Dallas could tread water for another year with Sensabaugh and Elam, or another stop gap free agent?

Dallas Cowboys Rooting Guide For The NFL Combine

2012-02-15T21:00:41Z

If and when you tune in to the NFL Combine this year, you'll probably be focusing on the better known names. Luck vs. RGIII, how fast is Dre Kirkpatrick, what is David DeCastro's bench press, how agile is Quinton Coples, etc. etc. But when some of the lesser known names take the stage, you'll be wondering who to root for.

Not anymore.

Every year, in addition to 30 usually high profile national draft-eligible players the Cowboys bring in for pre-draft visits, they also bring in some draft-eligible local prospects who are usually less well known.

These visits by local prospects usually happen in early to mid April and are known as "Dallas Days". Players qualify as a 'local prospect' if they attended one of the many high schools within the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area or played for SMU or TCU. These "Dallas Days" have delivered their share of Cowboys players in the past, with the likes of Patrick Crayton, Brandon Williams, Jacques Reeves, Stephen Hodge, Bryan McCann and Dez Bryant, as well as last year's rookies Phillip Tanner, Raymond Radway and Josh Thomas.

We don't yet know which local prospects the Cowboys will invite this year, but we do know which of the 318 players invited to the Combine would qualify as local prospects for the Cowboys.

After the break we list the 15 local players attending the Combine this year, many of whom you've probably never heard of.

Thanks to BTB member sgitr for doing the legwork to find these names, and without further ado, here are the local prospects:

CBS rank	Projected Round	Player	POS	Combine #	College	High School	Hometown
92	3	Jamell Fleming	CB	DB14	Oklahoma	Seguin	Arlington
98	3	Cyrus Gray	RB	RB10	Texas A&M	DeSoto	DeSoto
122	3-4	Chris Givens	WR	WO16	Wake Forest	Wylie	Wylie
132	4	Keenan Robinson	ILB	LB26	Texas	Plano East	Plano
161	4-5	Jeff Fuller	WR	WO15	Texas A&M	Boyd	McKinney
167	5	Emmanuell Acho	ILB	LB01	Texas	St Mark's	Dallas
198	5-6	Jacquies Smith	OLB	DL48	Missouri	South Oak Cliff	Dallas
233	6-7	Tank Carder	ILB	LB07	TCU	Sweeny	Sweeny
249	7	D'Anton Lynn	CB	DB33	Penn St.	Celina	Celina
271	7-FA	Kelvin Beachum	OT	OL05	SMU	Mexia	Mexia
288	7-FA	James Hanna	TE	TE07	Oklahoma	Flower Mound	Flower Mound
314	7-FA	Ron Brooks	CB	DB08	LSU	Macarthur	Irving
320	7-FA	Patrick Witt	QB	QB19	Yale	Wylie	Wylie
334	7-FA	Jamie Blatnick	OLB	DL04	Oklahoma St.	Celina	Celina
601	FA	Josh LeRibeus	OG	OL28	SMU	Berkner	Richardson

The players are arranged according to how they rank on the CBSSports big board. The 'Combine #' is the number they'll be wearing throughout the various Combine events.

While a few names on the list will be familiar to the some Cowboys fans, many of the names will have even hardcore draftniks scrambling for their draft manuals. But with this list in hand, you'll know who to root for once the lesser known names take the stage at the Combine - you never know, one of them might end up a Cowboy.

If nothing else, us this list to get a head start on your pet cats this year. But if you're planning on watching the Combine, think of this as your Cowboys Rooting Guide for the Combine, and bookmark it!!

Cowboys Offseason Plan: A Lot Of Holes To Fill

2012-02-15T18:00:36Z

Earlier this month, in another look at the Cowboys' offseason plan, I noted Jason Garrett's optimal talent acquisition strategy: use free agency to cover all the team's "must haves" so that they are freed from having to target (and reach for) a player at a specific position in the draft. In a perfect world, Garrett noted, the Cowboys would "draft without needs." Indeed, this is what the top organizations have been doing for some time now, since they began to figure out the salary cap universe's financial nuances.

More recently, as KD reported, Jerry Jones seems to be echoing Garrett's sentiment. Jones noted that if the team was to pinpoint a player it wouldn't happen during the draft - where they would pursue a "best player available" strategy - but in free agency. This strategy makes tremendous sense. The draft is a living, protean entity; trying to target a specific player beyond the first three or four picks is a suicidal endeavor. Free agency, on the other hand, allows you to target a guy--and to get him, if you're willing to spend the right amount of cash.

On a side note, Jones is influenced strongly by his coaches' philosophies--when they actually have a clear, global plan. For years after Jimmy Johnson's departure, he continued to parrot elements of Jimmy's coaching mantra, even as it became more corrupt. If you'll remember, one of the things he loved to say was that he's a "risk-taker." That's pure Johnson. After he hired Bill Parcells, Jones began to incorporate snippets of Billspeak into his interviews. Now, we have evidence of his taking on the RHG's mantra, which can only be a good thing. If Garrett's long-view thinking can begin to influence personnel decisions, the Cowboys will get draft more consistently - making fewer bad free agent reaches as a result - and will improve their personnel. Which is important, as there's a lot of overhauling to be done.

See what needs to be done after the jump...

If, indeed, Garrett's taking the philosophical lead (as I believe he is), then this won't happen in one offseason, as its precisely that kind of knee-jerk, "we've got to make a Super Bowl run now!" kind of thinking that perpetually gets Jones and his NFL plaything into hot water. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I'd be shocked to see a lot of big-ticket free agent signings. Rather, I'd expect the team to focus on building through the draft, and using free agency much like they did last year: either to re-sign their own "nucleus" guys (Doug Free) or to secure stop-gaps who can hold down the fort until they can add talented players through the draft (Kenyon Coleman, Marcus Spears, Abe Elam--and even Orlando Scandrick and Gerald Sensabaugh fit this category: the team had a lot of holes)

So, let's assume that they will proceed more or less as they did late last summer. As we imagine that we are the Dallas brass looking at this roster, we need to ask a couple of questions: first: what positions need to be filled and/ or replaced? and second, how might we best address those roster spots: via free agency? the draft? a combination of the two? Today we'll take a quick, global look at the roster; on Friday, I'll focus on potential strategies for the offense, then early next week, I'll do the same for the defense.

What I've done here is to break the team up by unit, going three deep on the depth chart (so guys like Andre Holmes and Ray Radway don't appear). Any roster spots that were manned last year by guys who are currently free agents (and thus not officially on the roster), I've left open (marking them with a "????"). The team only has two RFAs this offseason, Tony Fiammetta and Kevin Ogletree; I've marked both with an asterisk. None of this information should be particularly new or revelatory. But its important to take a look at to the overall picture when assessing how to address the whole team. Here's the offensive depth chart:

	Starter	Backup	Third String
QB	Tony Romo	????	Stephen McGee
FB	*Tony Fiammetta	Shaun Chapas
RB	DeMarco Murray	Felix Jones	Phillip Tanner
SE	Dez Bryant	*Kevin Ogletree	Dwayne Harris
FL	Miles Austin	????	Jesse Holley
TE	Jason Witten	????	John Phillips
LT	Tyron Smith	Jermey Parnell
LG	Bill Nagy	????	David Arkin
OC	Phil Costa	Kevin Kowalski
RG	Kyle Kosier	????	David Arkin
RT	Doug Free	Jermey Parnell

Most of the offensive priorities can be immediately seen in this chart: the Cowboys must find a backup quarterback, a third receiver, a backup tight end and acquire depth at offensive guard. In addition, several questions emerge: at what level do they tender Tony Fiammetta (a significant part of this equation must be: what do they think of Shaun Chapas)? Will they give Stephen McGee another year or will they seek to groom another young QB? Will they offer Kevin Ogletree a tender of any kind? And, perhaps most importantly: how desperate are they to upgrade the OC position?

And here's the defensive depth chart:

	Starter	Backup	Third String
LDE	Kenyon Coleman	Sean Lissemore
NT	Jay Ratliff	Josh Brent
RDE	Marcus Spears	Jason Hatcher	Clifton Geathers
LOLB	????	Victor Butler
LILB	????	Bruce Carter
RILB	Sean Lee	????	Orie Lemon
ROLB	DeMarcus Ware	Alex Albright
LCB	**Terence Newman	Orlando Scandrick
SS	????	Barry Church
FS	Gerald Sensabaugh	Danny McCray
RCB	Mike Jenkins	????	Mario Butler

What leaps out from viewing this is how many holes Dallas has in its back seven. They'll need to add as many as seven new players just to maintain the status quo; that's a lot of offseason work. The holes are clear: the Cowboys must find somebody to play LOLB--even if its to re-sign Anthony Spencer); acquire two inside linebackers, either as starters or for depth purposes (we might see Bradie James return on a one-year deal), need a strong safety and multiple cornerbacks. Questions abound: will they really move Ratliff out to DE? is Bruce Carter ready to step in and start? Can they afford to get rid of Terence Newman (who I've marked with the dreaded double asterisk)? Can they afford not to? If they get rid of Newman, Dallas will need three corners, so is Mario Butler capable of taking over the fifth corner spot? The fourth?

What is the larger takeaway from this exercise? When we look at the roster this way, it makes more sense that Dallas is looking more at centers than at guards and that they are seriously considering giving Anthony Spencer a franchise tag (who else out there, either in the draft or free agency, is any better than Spencer?). It also makes their interest in Stanford Routt seem more reasonable: a team that needs three corners must explore every available means. Lastly, it seems to justify Jerry Jones' peculiar declaration that the defensive line is a strength. This offseason, it is--because at least the cupboard is stocked.

There are as many as twelve key roster spots that must be filled. Given that a superb draft haul will net three 2012 starters, they would need to sign as many as nine free agents. Given that Spencer's tender would cover almost half of the team's 20 million dollars in cap space, that hardly seems realistic. If, as Garrett and Jones claim, the Cowboys want to pursue a "BPA" drafting strategy, then addressing positions in free agency (like offensive guard and defensive end) that are currently stocked with serviceable (if unspectacular) players seems a luxury they cannot afford.

This suggests that Dallas cannot afford any of the big-name free agents whose names have been bandied about of late, especially if they franchise Spencer. I think its much more likely that we'll see them re-sign Montrae Holland than Carl Nicks or add a Joel Dreesen before a Jermichael Finley.

But that's a topic for further post...

Averaging The Mocks: Dallas Cowboys Take Luke Kuechly

2012-02-15T15:05:38Z

Every mock draft out there agrees that Andrew Luck is going to be taken first in the NFL draft.

That is the only player that there is any consensus on. After the Stanford Golden Boy, the opinions vary, and the deeper you go, the greater the variation. Given the never-ending cycle of mocks coming out, I started wondering if there might be some way to come up with an overall ranking that considered a variety of sources to give a "most likely" draft order for the first round - at least through the 14th pick that fans of the Dallas Cowboys are so interested in.

So I put together a table using 12 different mock drafts. They are (in no particular order), Russ Lande from the Sporting News, Wes Bunting of the National Football Post, Rob Rang and Dave Brugler of CBS Sports, the separate CBS prospect ranking (which is different from Rang and Brugler's mocks), SBN's Mocking the Draft, Walter Football, Drafttek, DraftAce, Chad Reuter of the NFL Network, Draft King, and Football's Future.

If those look familiar, it is because I went with mocks that have already been used here for other articles. It means I am talking about some sites that you may be familiar with. And that I was able to go to OCC's various posts on mocks to get the links.

But then I had to decide what to do with this information.

The madness behind my method after the jump.

Since I am primarily concerned with what player the Cowboys would likely wind up with, and am using BPA to decide the picks in order, I wanted to make sure I got at least to that 14th pick. But to make sure, I needed to go a little past that. I decided to take the top 20 picks from each mock. It made the math work out, and by that point the names involved were beginning to vary so much that I began to suspect that a dart board is one of the primary tools for people who write these things. To cover the top 20 slots, 12 mocks needed 38 names.

I then assigned a value to the slot each player was selected. The number 1 pick is worth 20 points, the number 2 is 19, and so on. Then it was a simple matter of completing a spreadsheet and plugging in the value for each player in each of the mocks, and coming up with an aggregate value for each player that had shown up.

Here is what I came up with (my "value" is in blue):

Selection	Player	Value	Selection	Player	Value
1	Andrew Luck QB Stanford	240	20	Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M	31
2	Matt Kalil OT USC	218	21	Janoris Jenkins CB N. Ala.	27
3	Robert Griffin III QB Baylor	207	22	Mike Adams T Ohio St	18
4	Morris Claiborne CB LSU	202	23	Cody Glenn G Georgia	16
5	Justin Blackmon WR Ok. St.	187	24	Whitney Mercilus DE/OLB Ill.	15
6	Trent Richardson RB Alabama	152	25	Mark Barron FS Alabama	14
7	Quentin Couples DE NC	149	26	Alameda Ta'amu DT/NT Wash.	9
8	Riley Reiff T Iowa	129	27	Zach Brown OLB N. Carolina	9
9	David Decastro G Stanford	98	28	Don'ta Hightower ILB Alabama	8
10	Michael Brockers DT LSU	98	29	Orson Charles TE Georgia	7
11	Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama	98	30	Fletcher Cox DT Miss. St.	6
12	Johnathan Martin T Stanford	97	31	Peter Konz C Wisconsin	6
13	Devon Still DT PSU	93	32	Alshon Jeffrey WR S. Car.	6
14	Luke Kuechly ILB Boston C.	83	33	Dontari Poe DT Memphis	5
15	Courtney Upshaw OLB Ala.	75	34	Brandon Weeden QB Ok. St.	3
16	Michael Floyd WR ND	54	35	Vontaze Burfict ILB ASU	3
17	Melvin Ingram OLB SC	49	36	Coby Fleener TE Stanford	2
18	Kendall Wright WR Baylor	47	37	Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers	2
19	Nick Perry DE USC	36	38	Alfonzo Dennard CB	1

This not only gave me a consensus order for the 12 mocks, but it also gave a way to show some relative strength from player to player. The closer together the numbers, the more likely, I would assume, that these positions might switch. For instance, the difference between RGIII and Morris Claiborne is only 5 points, so it would not be surprising to see them switch positions (assuming there is some credibility to this whole methodology). But the difference between Justin Blackmon and Trent Richardson is a whopping 35 points, so there order would seem to be pretty unlikely to reverse. Also, the later the picks, the smaller the difference, so it is not surprising that the value of prediction becomes less the further into the draft you go.

The darker blue squares show a tie between three names that have come up around here a lot: David Decastro, Michael Brockers and Dre Kirkpatrick, all with 98 points. It looks like those three guys could go in any order. Unfortunately, they all look to go before Dallas gets their pick.

The best player left for the Cowboys, based on the collective "wisdom" of these mocks, turns out to be Luke Kuechley, ILB of Boston. Not exactly a burning need - but Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram are lurking very close for a possible trade down (the team could take Upshaw with some justification at 14, since he pretty close here). And DeCastro, Brockers and Kirkpatrick all might be in range for a trade, or could slip down.

I don't know if it is really more valid to use a composite like this, but I tend to think some of the less well-reasoned choices in the different mocks may cancel each other out here. I do think it may give a little bit better idea what players are in the Cowboys' range, and which ones are just too far away.

I like a couple of other things this does. I think it helps filter out players who are seen as outside the top 20 in most mocks, but get some unreasonable love in others. Ryan Tannehill is a good example, in that he was left off of 10 mocks, but showed up on the other two at the 6th slot! He still made the 20th pick in this average, but that at least got him far enough down to not affect Dallas' choice. I don't care about anything after that in this exercise.

I am going to be watching the mocks I have used here, and if things start to move, I may revisit this, particularly after the combine, when major movement is to be expected and things get a little more factual. Let me know if this interests you - I have done all the hard work on the spreadsheet already, so this will be easy to update.

One Man's Gang: Advising The Dallas Cowboys On Their 2012 Offseason

2012-02-14T23:00:28Z

How would I attempt to fix the Dallas Cowboys?

Isn't that the question that we all pretty much have in our heads as we discuss the 2012 offseason? We all have varying levels of expertise and knowledge on certain subjects. Whether real or perceived, our hubris as people combined with our familiarity and passion for the team lead us all to believe we have some semblance of a fix for what ails this franchise. Mostly, this comes out in our comments in bit pieces and fragments, as certain subjects are discussed. I figured, with the onset of the new league year less than four weeks away, I might as well get a jump on sharing my views on the topic in their totality.

I'm no subject matter expert, and I realize that there will be some different opinions as equal, or more valid, than my own. This is simply my view; the moves that if the Cowboys front office made them, I'd sit back and say "that's exactly how I would've done it, let's get to September!"

The first order of business would be deciding which of our own in-house talent needs to stay, and which need to be shown the door. You have to handle your own business first, because you pretty much know what you have in those chess pieces. Especially how they fit into your specific strategy.

For now, here's how I'd handle our internal free agents. I'm waving goodbye to several players for various reasons. Terence Newman is obviously gone in my book. The other two main names here will be TE Martellus Bennett and OLB Anthony Spencer. Too much promise, not enough production for my tastes. I don't think there's any way I would pay Spencer what he can get on the open market, but if Bennett realizes his value as a blocking tight end only, there may be a two-year contract available for him at the end of this exercise.

Also gone would be QB Chris Griesen, P Mat McBriar (can't wait to find out your status), WR Kevin Ogletree, RB Sammy Morris, CB's Alan Ball and Frank Walker, and ILB's Keith Brooking and Bradie James. McB and Bradie are the most sentimental releases, but this is a business, folks.

Follow the jump for much more...

Here's a look at all of the in-house free agents and how they would be handled in KD's Cowboys Kingdom.

Player	Position	Sign?	Guestimate '12 Cap Hit (in millions)	Salary Notes
Ball, Alan	CB	no	--
Bennett, Martellus	TE	no	--
Brooking, Keith	ILB	no	--
Dockery, Derrick	OG	no	--
Elam, Abe	S	yes	$2.50	Elam in '11 ($2.5m)
Fiammetta, Tony	FB	yes	$0.67	It seems Fia can decide to be unrestricted if he chooses, due to waiver rules
Greisen, Chris	QB	no	--
Holland, Montrae	OG	yes	$1.00	made $.5m after being resigned in 2011
James, Bradie	ILB	no	--
McBriar, Mat	P	no	--
Morris, Sammy	RB	no	--
Newman, Terence	CB	release	--
Ogletree, Kevin	WR	no	--
Robinson, Laurent	WR	yes	$3.20	Give him four years, $7m signing bonus, $1.5m base salary for 2012
Spencer, Anthony	OLB	no	--
Walker, Frank	CB	no	--

-- If I'm reading the waiver rules correctly, even though they released him, because Dallas claimed Fiammetta prior to '11 with two years remaining,he can return at the above salary. Basically, he's a UFA with a framework. I penciled him in at this cap hit level though, as I don't think he did anything deserving of a raise.

-- I think Elam would jump at the chance to get his 2011 salary back, and I actually feel a little gracious giving him that much.

-- I like what Holland did once he returned to the team and before his injury. Based on how I'm attacking the other facets of the offseason, I want him back on the team in 2012 and think he'd resign for his pre-released 2012 expected salary, adding a second year.

-- Laurent Robinson is the big fish here. After a great twitter debate on how much he can command, I settled on this being a good figure to retain him. The signing bonus gives him 'now' money, and it gives him the security to get to his eighth year in the league; after playing for four teams in four years. By the way, did you know that Stephen Jones creative contract has Miles Austin down for only a $1.15 salary in '12, and a cap hit not much bigger? Amazing.

So that takes us to about $7.4 million of our projected $20 million worth of cap space to play with this year. On to other team's free agents which will help augment this team before the draft.

C Chris Myers, Texans, 30 yo, 6'5", 300 lbs

Myers is dominant in run blocking and average at pass protection. He has two inches on last year's starter Phil Costa. However, his arm length is 32 3/8"and while I don't have Costa's on record, we know it is not an acceptable measure. Word from Valley Ranch is that center is a bigger concern than guard, and I'd tend to believe them.

2012 Cap Hit: $5 million. Currently ninth best paid center in NFL. Center's 3-5 on list make $5.8m, $4.6m and $4.5m in 2012. Four years, $10 million signing bonus, escalating base starting at $2.5m.

QB Kyle Orton, Chiefs, 31 yo, 6'4" 223 lbs

The Cowboys wanted to get Orton when they knew that Kitna was pretty much done for the year, but were beaten by a claim by the Chiefs. I think Orton might want to be a starter, but if there are no offers out there for him, Dallas backup money is a great scenario. I could easily see Orton performing well with all of the weapons Dallas has on offense, which would be the best set he's seen his entire pro career.

2012 Cap Hit: $3 million. Maybe a two-year deal.

ILB Channing Crowder, Unsigned, 28 yo, 6'2" 245 lbs

I spoke of Crowder's expected return to the NFL earlier in the month, and the more I think about it, the more I want him on this team. Crowder does three things for me. He comes as a cheap,experienced third man in the rotation, he provides pass rush from the ILB position, and he has a serious attitude if I remember correctly. I need more players like that on my defense.

2012 Cap Hit: $1.4 million. Incentive-laden deal.

P Steve Weatherford, NY Giants, 29 yo, who cares how tall a punter is?

The Giants have serious salary issues this year, and if it happens that they let Weatherford walk, the Cowboys should snap him up to replace McBriar in a heartbeat. He was killer in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl, consistently pinning opponents deep with kicks to the sidelines. Improve yourself, hurt the team you're chasing. Win win.

2012 Cap Hit: $2 million. Four years.

Total cap hit of other team's free agents? $11.4 million. Combined with signing their own free agents, Dallas has now spent around $18.8 million over eight players. Might even be some room left for Marty B if he finds the market doesn't like him. I know not a lot of people are not going to be on board with the Crowder signing, and I'm cool with that. There are still some holes remaining to be filled, so we move along to this coming April's draft.

No. 14: CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama.

-- 6'2" 192 lbs, sure-tackling cornerback. After the charges were dropped earlier this month, I lost any and all reservation in selecting the kid. He has a clean record, he plays at a position of high need and he would be , arguably, the best player available if he sat there when Dallas was on the clock. (Alternate picks: CB Janoris Jenkins, OG Dave DeCastro)

No 45: DE Jared Crick, Nebraska.

-- 6'4" 285 lbs, tore his pectoral muscle and was lost for the year in October. I loved this guy heading into the year and think adding him to our DE rotation and four-man lines will wreak havoc on opposing offenses. (Alternate pick: Vinny Curry, OLB Marshall, CB Chase Minnefield)

No. 82: OLB Jonathan Massaquoi, Troy.

-- 6'2" 250 lbs, from Demarcus Ware's alma mater. Very quick with pass rushing abilities and experience dropping back into coverage. Would compete with Victor Butler to start from early in the season. (Alternative pick: DE Kendell Reyes, UConn, CB Josh Norman)

Rounds 4-7: Obviously this is where projecting a player's availability becomes a little silly, especially pre-combine. For what it's worth, I would round out my roster with a mix of experiments. I'm intrigued by OT Matt McCants, UAB as a replacement for Jeremy Parnell. McCants had a good week of Senior Bowl practice and has that down-the-line promise. He did everything to drop completely off draft boards, but I want to take a fifth-round flyer on CB Cliff Harris out of Oregon. In the sixth, give me Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins to take on Stephen McGee in camp. There were good reports out of Mobile on him as well. To round it off, give me bulldozing, 240 lb RB Terence Ganaway of Baylor in the seventh round to be our goal line back.

Obviously, many things will change over the coming months, starting with the Scouting Combine that kicks off February 22nd. For now though, I'd be pretty pleased to see Dallas enter September with the following 53 man roster.

Position	Players	Head Count
QB	Romo, Orton, Cousins	3
RB	Murray, Jones, Fiammetta, Ganaway (Tanner)	4
WR	Bryant, Austin, Robinson, Harris, Holley	5
TE	Witten, Phillips, UDFA(Bennett?)	3
OL	Smith, Holland, Myers, Kosier, Free, McCants, Nagy, Arkin, Kowalski, Costa	10
DL	Lissemore, Ratliff, Crick, Spears, Brent, Geathers, Hatcher, Callaway	8
LB	Ware, Lee, Carter, Massaquoi, Crowder, Albright, V. Butler, Lemon	8
CB	Jenkins, Kirkpatrick, Scandrick, Harris, M. Butler	5
S	Sensabaugh, Elam, Church, Taplin-Ross	4
ST	Bailey, Weatherford, LaDoucer	3
PS	Bra.Carter, A.Holmes, R.Radway, Loper, +4 spots	53 + PS

[Update]Cleared up the PS issue and opened up another CB slot. [/Update] New starters are highlighted. I'm a little heavy in the trenches, but don't mind that at this point.

So what do you all think? Does this roster get Dallas any closer to where you want to see them? What would you change?