Blogging The Boys

Assessing The Impact Of Dallas Cowboys Guard Mackenzy Bernadeau's Surgery

2012-05-17T05:00:12Z

After an offseason that has seen mostly good news, the Dallas Cowboys had a shadow of gloom cross the sun. It has been announced that free agent guard Mackenzy Bernadeau will be out two to three months with hip surgery.

Bernadeau was signed to provide some experience and hopefully an upgrade in performance for the interior of the Dallas offensive line. His acquisition was met with some controversy, mainly over whether he was really an adequate player to bring in. Despite those kinds of misgivings among the fan base, he and fellow guard signee Nate Livings must have been seen as providing enough improvement in the interior of the offensive line that the Cowboys did not use one of their draft choices to acquire an O lineman. With this development, that whole strategy is suddenly called into question.

Related: Dallas Cowboys Guard Mackenzy Bernadeau Out 10-12 Weeks After Hip Surgery

There are actually several questions, most deriving from the bigger one of "What now?" Since I am not fond of the alternative of running around in panic, rending my clothes, and throwing ashes on my head, I thought it would be a good time to try and get all the various things that the team must look at on the table.

Follow me through the jump to go over the issues - if you can do that without hurting something.

Before looking at what alternatives the Cowboys have to address this situation, there are some other questions about why this happened and why the surgery is happening now. Josh Ellis at DallasCowboys.com points out that Bernadeau had problems with injuries in 2011, and it cost him.

He ran with the first-team offense at right guard in the club's first three preseason games, but a bout with turf toe sidelined him for the end of the exhibition schedule. The club inserted backup Garry Williams into the starting lineup, but he suffered a season-ending injury of his own.

With Bernadeau still hobbled, the Panthers had to look outside the organization for help at the guard position, and signed veteran Geoff Hangartner on Sept. 5, only a week before the regular season began. Hangartner played well, and stole the job from Bernadeau, who would go on to start only one game all season, replacing an injured Travelle Wharton at left guard against the Falcons in Week 14.

There's a lot of people "wondering" whether the team knew that he had some hip issues beforte he signed with the Cowboys. Bryan Broaddus tweeted that the injury happened while he was working out with the team this offseason - after he had signed. Clarence Hill confirms that and adds that Bernadeau initially suffered a hip flexor injury early in the offseason program, but he suffered a set back in his rehab program, forcing him to undergo hip surgery on Saturday to repair a torn labrum.

The timing of the injury is not at all good. He could miss the start of training camp and the first two preseason games. If so, he is almost certainly not going to be ready to step into a starting role, as Ellis observed.

Not only will he need time for his surgically-repaired hip to recover, but it's unlikely he'll be in playing shape after such a long layoff, which could ultimately force the Cowboys to begin the season with another starter at guard.

The torn labrum is an unfortunate turn of events, but the team cannot change the past. Now, it is time to move forward. Just as the team cannot go back and use a draft pick to get a guard/center prospect, it can't do anything about the timing of the surgery. The focus becomes how the team deals with likely not having Bernadeau available to start on September 5 - if that was the real plan to begin with.

Obviously, the best outcome would be to have a starter who is better than just competent emerge from the candidates already on the roster, assuming that Nate Livings will have one of the starting spots handled. Just to review, the usual suspects from last year are David Arkin, Bill Nagy, Phil Costa and Kevin Kowalski. Added to them are the UDFA signees, Ronald Leary, Harland Gunn, and Mike Adams (who may be able to slide over from tackle).

Of course, this group is now going to have to account for two of the interior positions, since the center slot also has to be filled. This is where the team needs to have some hope that the combination of Mike Woicik and Bill Callahan can provide some significant improvement in performance. I think the best hope is for a couple of the experienced players from last year to step their game up enough to provide protection for Tony Romo and open holes for the running backs. It would be nice for a rookie to emerge and win a starting spot, because that would mean they were pretty darned outstanding, but it is highly unlikely that it could play out that way. It took a first round draft choice to do that last year.

There is also the option of bringing in a veteran off the street. An option that has already been brought up in the comment stream from the original article on this is to bring back Montrae Holland ("Lumpy" to the BTB cognoscenti). He played well last year after coming back a size or two smaller and with the motivation and wisdom gained from being cut before the season. He also knows the playbook.

The negative aspect is that he in essence would be a reversal of what the team is trying to do. The team is getting younger, churning the roster and seeking to improve across the board. Holland would at best be a holding maneuver - and to a certain extent indicate a disheartening lack of progress among the younger players. The same could be said for just about any off-the-street free agent signed - and how good are any of them likely to be at this point?

Of course, it is not certain that Bernadeau was going to be the starter if he was healthy. If he was always an insurance policy, then the team is not much worse off than it was, and he does have time to come back and get into shape during the season. This would still be valuable, since his services as a backup would become more likely to be needed as the weeks roll on.

This is not a good development, but at the moment it does seem a good bit less than catastrophic. If there always was a bit of an "iffy" quality to Bernadeau's role on the team as a potential starter, then this is really a somewhat marginal development. There are still about three and a half months to go before the first game of the season, and this is almost certainly not the only roster position that will be affected by some kind of injury. It certainly does not rise to the level of Raymond Radway and his last second trip to IR as far as long term-impact to the player.

There is no need to panic, although no one is going to stop you if you insist. It is just a sobering bit of news to digest. If things do not go so well, criticism may be justified, but while this might have been handled a bit better, it does not look like a total goat rope. So far.

Follow @TomRyleBTB

New Vicar To Shepherd Cowboys Running Game

2012-05-16T21:24:00Z

Another great piece from Keg promoted from the FanPosts. -- Dave

There is no position as unassumingly demanding and oft forgotten as the NFL fullback. In a league ruled and marketed towards the growth of passing focused offenses, this blue-collar position is disappearing as quickly as the middle class (sorry, couldn't resist). But these broken-nosed, jack-of-all-trades ironmen are still in the NFL, colliding and crashing into the opposition, martyrs to the trenches rarely receiving the glory of their deeds.

One of the best fullbacks in the history of the NFL, and to many a personal Cowboys favorite, Daryl "Moose" Johnston was the perfect, all-purpose fullback, the only kind that may survive in the future NFL. In a way, Moose was the reflection of the great teammates around him, a nexus of all their best qualities. He had the competitive spirit of Michael Irvin, like Jay Novacek had soft hands and could find soft spots in defenses, he could pick-up blitzes and seal running lanes as well as Mark Stepnoski, and he had the heart and work ethic of Emmitt Smith. Now, besides the fact this man deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, or at the very least the Ring of Honor...

The Dallas Cowboys recently picked up an accomplished all-purpose fullback. Cowboys fans continue to discuss the injuries at fullback and the interior o-line that led to inconsistent performances by Dallas' rushing attack. Pretty soon, I expect we'll be discussing how much improved the Cowboys running game appears in 2012. DeMarco Murray will continue to be praised, building on his success in 2011. Felix Jones will appear rejuvenated, splitting carries and long touchdowns pretty evenly with DMM. The potential and growth of the Yuglies will be discussed with excitement. As fan awards shower down upon the team, I hope (my projections are true) we don't overlook Lawrence Vickers.

Let's take a look at what Lawrence Vickers has done during his career...

Oh, yeah, this rarely heralded position doesn't even have any specific statistical categories. Well, Lawrence Vickers was drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the sixth round of the 2006 draft. He ended up winning the starting role late in his rookie season. Durability in a position based on high-impact contact? Vickers has missed six games in a six season career. While he hasn't been used as a rusher or receiver much in his NFL career, just a bulldozer to clear paths, he does have four NFL seasons with a 7+ yard receiving average. But his college career is more telling, where he actually was used much more like a running back. Scouting reports had his blocking and size as negatives (though he has grown into a 250 lb blocking machine), and discussed his ability to run for tough yards and catch out of the backfield. In three seasons as a starter at fullback, Vickers rushed 164 times (mostly short-yardage situations) with a 3.7 yard average, and averaged 8.2 yards with 70 receptions. (stats from sports-reference.com) While I think DeMarco Murray is enough of a power rusher to excel in short-yardage situations, Lawrence Vickers provides Garrett an interesting option.

In his NFL career (mostly with the Browns) Vickers has been used primarily as a blocker. In his five seasons as a starter, he has quite the resume...at least when looking at the leading rushers who benefited from his work.

Year	Team	Leading Rusher	Avg/Rush	Interesting facts
07	CLE	Jamal Lewis	4.4	2nd best career avg. and 8th season in league
08	CLE	Jamal Lewis	3.6	Mentioned later
09	CLE	Jerome Harrison	4.4	Only season he rushed over 40 times - nearly 200
10	CLE	Peyton Hillis	4.4	2nd best career avg.
11	HOU	Arian Foster	4.4	Rookie Ben Tate averaged 5.4 yards on 175 attempts.

Wow!

A different leading rusher nearly every season, and they often had one of the best rushing averages in their career. I understand that judging a fullback by another's production is dreadfully inadequate and open to many other variables, like offensive-lines, but this kind of above average consistency is certainly something to note. It should also be considered that the majority of his career was spent with the Cleveland Browns. A team that has lacked a dangerous passing attack since...Bernie Kosar? Defenses always stacked the box to stop the run and a losing record with big margins meant fewer opportunities to run out games.

In fact, in "his" worst season as a starter, Vickers helped Jamal Lewis average 3.6 yards a carry. That year Lewis was on the threshold of 30 and the Cleveland passing offense accounted for 2,380 yards - 11 TD - 20 Int and the team finished with a 4-12 record. Also, the team rushing average was 3.9 yards. Oh, Vickers also missed four games due to injuries that season, and it makes me wonder if Jamal would have managed 4 yards per carry that year had his favorite fullback not been injured.

Now also nearing 30, Vickers likely doesn't have much time left in his career. But the Texas native has come home. He has brought his experience, work ethic, and bruising nature to the Dallas Cowboys. It may not be for long, but the Vicar could be a seldom discussed, but big-impact signing by Jason Garrett...a man who knows first-hand what a player capable of earning a nickname like Moose can bring to a team.

Dallas Cowboys Guard Mackenzy Bernadeau Out 10-12 Weeks After Hip Surgery

2012-05-16T17:33:02Z

Less than two weeks ago, the Cowboys O-line coach Bill Callahan talked about the tentative starting line-up for his O-line. At the time, that line-up included Mackenzy Bernadeau at right guard, who was rehabbing his injured hip during the team's offseason workouts under the supervision of Cowboys trainers.

Related: Bill Callahan Provides Early Look at 2012 Cowboys O-line

Today, it looks like Callahan may have to rethink his options along the offensive line. Bernadeau underwent surgery over the weekend to repair the tear in his right hip, according to Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas.

Archer further writes that Bernadeau could be out of action for 10-to-12 weeks, a time frame which would make him miss all OTAs and the minicamp, and possibly part of training camp as well.

The 6-4, 325 pound former Panther could have provided some much needed muscle and beef for the interior O-line, but his spot will now likely be hotly contested between 2011 rookies David Arkin, Bill Nagy and Kevin Kowalski as well as 2012 college free agent Ronald Leary.

Bryan McIntyre, in his first week writing for NFL.com, reports that while Bernadeau is due a $1 million base salary in 2012, his contract contains a $250,000 de-escalator clause tied to his completion of the offseason workouts. If Bernadeau recovers, he could wind up playing for $750,000 this season. The downside obviously is that he may not play at all if he doesn't recover sufficiently.

Is The Cowboys Roster Churning Fast Enough?

2012-05-16T13:30:26Z

Two weeks ago, rabblerouser looked at how the Cowboys have been retooling their roster this year, which holes are being filled by free agents, which holes are plugged with rookies and which holes could remain soft spots.

Related: Cowboys Offseason 2012: Retooling The Roster

Inspired by his post , I wanted to understand just how much of a roster churn the Cowboys have undergone in the last two years. Remember, the last two seasons were the first consecutive non-winning seasons since the 5-11 years in 2001 and 2002, so a good degree of churn is to be expected.

To determine the level of churn over the last two years, I looked at the 53-man roster on opening day of the 2010 season, and compared it to the current roster. So make like House Of Pain and jump around the break to see what the churn looks like.

Less than half of the players going into the 2010 season remain on the current roster. 24, to be exact. Here's an overview of which players from the 2010 opening day roster are still with the team, arbitrarily grouped into starters and backups.

Position and No. of players	Starters	Backups
Quarterbacks (3)	Tony Romo	Stephen McGee
Fullbacks (2)
Running Backs (3)	Felix Jones
Wide Receivers (5)	Miles Austin, Dez Bryant	Kevin Ogletree
Tight Ends (2)	Jason Witten
Offensive Linemen (10)	Doug Free, Phil Costa
Defensive Linemen (5)	Marcus Spears, Jason Hatcher	Sean Lissemore
Nose Tackles (2)	Jay Ratliff	Josh Brent
Outside Linebackers (4)	DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer	Victor Butler
Inside Linebackers (5)	Sean Lee
Cornerbacks (3)	Mike Jenkins, Orlando Scandrick
Safety (6)	Gerald Sensabaugh	Barry Church, Danny McCray
Specialists (3)	L.P. Ladouceur

Once rabblerouser saw the number, he immediately cautioned against overrating it, saying he suspected that the 24 might be a pretty normal number for an NFL team. So I thought it might be a good idea to crosscheck the Cowboys' number against a random sampling of three NFL teams: a recent Super Bowl winner, a ho-hum team and a bottom dwelling team - which is how I ended up with the Giants, Eagles and Redskins. Here's how the four NFC East teams compare:

Players left on 2012 roster from the 2010 opening day roster
Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
24	27	26	25

Well, duh. Everybody had about the same level of churn. So by itself, the number is not terribly interesting.

There are some commentators that would have you believe the Cowboys are in a rebuilding mode. I always scoff at that notion, because if you were to look closely at what is happening with the roster, or if you actually knew what you were talking about, you'd see the same continuous roster renewal that you see with most other teams.

What is perhaps more interesting than looking at the absolute churn number is to look at where the churn on the Cowboys' roster occurred. The Cowboys completely gutted their roster on the offensive line and at inside linebacker, and if you're so inclined, you could easily call that a rebuilding mode at those positions. The Cowboys returned only three of the 15 players who were on the 2010 season-opening roster at those two positions, and I'm sure there are those who would argue that is still one player too much.

Overall though, while there is significant churn at some positions, the total churn so far looks to be at a fairly normal rate. The question is, are the Cowboys churning their roster fast enough?

Of course, looking over some of the names penciled in as a backup on the table above, chances are some of them won't be on the 2012 opening day roster. Also, there are 13 free agent acquisitions, seven draft picks and legions of college free agents who are all working very hard to get the roster churning even faster.

And we'll keep a close eye on how that turns out.

Cowboys' Offseason Moves: What They Tell Us About Dallas' Defensive Strategy

2012-05-15T18:05:38Z

On Saturday, Archie posted an article on Jerome Henderson, in which he outlined the various changes in attitude and coaching style the Cowboys' new defensive backs coach will bring to the position. Like Archie, I believe the Henderson hire is one of Dallas' key offseason moves - and not merely because the secondary has been pitiful for much of the last two seasons, and could therefore use a coaching upgrade, but because he specializes in a certain defensive style and philosophy.

As Chia noted in his post, Henderson's coaching stops include stints with the Jets and Browns, where he has tutored the likes of Darelle Revis, T.J. Ward and Joe Haden. What matters here is less the success of these players than the scheme in which Henderson tutored them. Unlike Dave Campo, who was not only uncomfortable coaching his charges in an in-your-face press-man coverage style but loathe to leave his men out on the proverbial island that the scheme demands, Henderson has a history of coaching in press-man schemes. And I believe that this will be the key to the Cowboys' 2012 season.

Related: Upgrading The Cowboys Secondary: Jerome Henderson

Allow me to explain: In Tim Layden’s book, Blood, Sweat and Chalk, a general history of football’s schematic innovations, there is a chapter dedicated to what Layden terms "The Ryan Family Defense." He examines several defenses that have been run by Buddy Ryan and his defensive-minded offspring, all of which are predicated on two central tenets: stop the run and put the quarterback on his backside. The latter is key: the Ryan boys have long been successful at devising ways for their defenders to get to opposing signal-callers.

How will Rob Ryan get to the quarterback in 2012? All will be revealed after the jump...

With pressure on the quarterback as a primary goal, both Rex and Rob Ryan have adapted the traditional zone blitz and enhanced it, largely by dramatically altering the placement of players on the field. When he was in Baltimore, Rex's willingness to move players anywhere on the field allowed him to conceive an almost limitless number of blitz packages. Layden writes:

It became common to see the Ravens line up with only one player in a three-point stance and five or six other linemen and linebackers strolling around the tackle box, waiting for the offense to call an audible before deciding where to attack from, or whether to attack at all.

When he was in Cleveland and the Brown's opponents were in obvious passing situations, Ryan unleashed a variety of different fronts ranging from a standard 3-4 to one particularly potent version of this scheme, known as the "Amoeba," with no down linemen. Indeed, his players frequently declined to set up according to positional expectations: at the snap, defensive linemen stood up or linebackers put their hands on the ground. To further confuse offenses, Ryan had his players engage in a series of pre-snap movements before setting up in their correct alignment just before the ball was snapped. Our own Chandus penned a terrific FanPost looking at Rob’s defense in Cleveland, with a focus on back-to-back upset victories over the Saints and Patriots. Its good stuff; if you're interested in seeing a preview of the Cowboys 2012 defensive schemes, give it a read.

One thing you'll immediately notice from Chandus' review is that Ryan's "Ameoba" defense doesn't demand that pass rushers regularly win one-on-one battles in order to get to the quarterback. Rob Ryan is not alone in this; in recent years, Rex's Jets teams have generated pressure without an elite pass rusher. This isn't to say that Rex's team doesn't boast an elite unit, however; where the Jets have dominated matchups is in the secondary, specifically with their cornerbacks (led by the aforementioned Revis) playing press-man, knocking receivers off their routes and disrupting the opposing quarterback's timing. In Dallas last year, the defensive coaches quickly realized that they didn't have the corners to play this scheme. Although the threesome of Newman, Jenkins and Scandrick certainly has some talent, none possess the size to out-muscle wideouts at the line of scrimmage a la Revis and Co.

In 2012, I expect this to change. As Chia noted in his post, Rex Ryan runs a lot of "Cover One" (corners locked up in man coverage with one deep safety) and "Cover zero" (the same, but with no deep safety help) in New York because his premier cover cornerbacks allow him to. Now, with two big, physical corners in Dallas, we should see Rob adopt a similar scheme. As a result, I think the longer-haired Ryan can open up several chapters in the playbook that collected dust last season, largely because Dallas simply didn't have the personnel to run them. After an active offseason, they are much closer to having the guys for Ryan's system. Consider the haul for a moment:

A diverse defensive lineman who can play either inside or outside (Tyrone Crawford)
A pass rushing OLB, who is adept at dropping into coverage (Kyle Wilber)
A fast, agile ILB to team with Sean Lee (Dan Connor)
A safety who can both blitz and cover well (Brodney Pool)
A ballhawking safety (17 ints) who is also a playmaker around the line of scrimmage (Matt Johnson)

What the Ryan family's defensive schemes require to be optimally successful are groups of players with diverse talents. Buddy's Bears has a linebacking corps who could all stuff the run, chase and cover, and blitz effectively. Adalius Thomas, who played for Rex when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, say of Baltimore’s league-leading 2006 D, asks us to "Look at the collection of athletes we had in Baltimore. There were a bunch of versatile guys out there…" To my mind, this is exactly the kind of versatile personnel that Dallas has earmarked for the scheme and then acquired to run it.

Such diversity leads to confusion for the QB: when every one of eleven defensive players is a capable blitzer, the brothers Ryan can disguise the actual source of pressure by making it seem as if any - or all - of nine defenders might actually bring the heat. But the key to all of this is to find big, athletic corners who can disrupt and run, giving any one of the other nine that extra split second they need to get to the quarterback. And I think that's what the Cowboys are counting on; in a recent interview, Jerry Jones (who essentially parrots the material he overhears in coaching meetings) noted, in his inimitable fashion, about the new secondary:

...we know that we're solid. We've got better and more personnel back there than we had last year. That should let us pin our ears back a little more in our pressure, our rushing.

What he didn't say is that there will likely be a lot of different guys pinning back their ears. In 2010, the Browns' sacks were distributed pretty evenly across their defensive personnel, especially their linebackers and safeties. Part of this is because they didn't have a DeMarcus Ware - who is going to get his, regardless of scheme. Beyond Ware, however, if the Cowboys' defense is working properly, I can envision five or six guys with 3-4 sacks. If in fact that proves to be the case, I'd expect to see a lot of opposing quarterbacks come to the line wondering from where the pressure is going to come.

And that can't be anything but good...

Who Wins Games for the Cowboys: Offense or Defense?

2012-05-15T12:01:22Z

Some of the more lively debates among Dallas Cowboys fans take place when the talk turns to the roles the offensive or defensive units play in winning or losing games.

The arguments exchanged in those debates typically sound something like this:

In 2011, the offense scored less than 17 points in five games. The Cowboys lost all five games. Therefore the offense sucks.
In 2011, the Cowboys were 6-1 in games in which the defense held opponents to less than 20 points. Had the defense held more opponents below 20 points, the Cowboys would have made the playoffs. Therefore the defense sucks.

If, like me, you're still living in a world where every offseason you think that the current year's team will be a reincarnation of the 13-3 2007 team, you may be surprised to find that over the last four seasons, the Cowboys have compiled a paltry 34-30 record. So who's at fault here?

One way to understand the contributions of each unit is to look at 'wins over average' for each unit, and that's what we'll do after we make like David Lee Roth and jump.

'Wins over average' is a metric developed by Doug Drinen at Pro-football-reference.com (PFR) in a post on adjusting QB records, back in the days before PFR closed down their blog. I've taken his approach and modified it slightly to look at total offense and total defense.

Think back to the 18-16 win against the Redskins last year. Did the offense or the defense win that game for the Cowboys? Arguably, if anybody won that game it was the kicker, who connected on six field goals. But for our purposes, the defense probably won that game by holding the Redskins to 16 points. The offense certainly didn't win it, they didn't score a single TD. You could go through almost every game and find arguments like this or like the arguments outlined in the lead-in above. But instead of subjectively evaluating each game, I'll approach this with a more objective, stat-based approach. This is how it works:

Wins over Average: As our measure of difficulty for the offense, we'll use points allowed, because it's a lot harder for an offense to win a game if their defense gives up 30 plus points than if they give up 10. For the defense, we'll look at points scored by their offense, as it's a lot harder to hold opposing offenses in check when your own offense is only scoring 10 points rather than 30 points.

In the table below I've crunched the regular season number for all NFL teams for the last six years, so that's 3,072 scores. I've formed five clusters by points allowed/points scored and looked at the winning percentages for each.

Obviously, one team's points scored is the other team's points allowed, so the table below contains the same numbers for offense and defense, just reversed:

	Offense vs Points Allowed					Defense vs Points Scored
	0-10	11-17	18-24	25-31	32+	0-10	11-17	18-24	25-31	32+
W/L record	491-30	488-189	374-407	145-442	38-468	30-491	189-488	407-374	442-145	468-38
Win %	.942	.721	.479	.247	.075	.058	.279	.521	.753	.925

How to read the table: An NFL offense almost always (491 vs 30) scores more points than the other team if the defense allows ten points or less. The NFL average winning percentage is .942 in those games. At the other end of the spectrum, when your offense scores 32 points or more, your defense is almost always (468-38) able to hold the opposing team to fewer points for a winning percentage of .925

Dallas Cowboys Offense, 08-11
Opp. Points Allowed	0-10	11-17	18-24	25-31	32+	Total
W/L record	12-0	9-3	10-6	1-9	2-12	34-30
Wins over average	0.7	0.4	2.3	-1.5	0.9	2.9

Cowboys offense and wins over average: The Cowboys have a record of 12-0 over the last four years when the defense allowed ten points or less. The average NFL team would be expected to win 11.3 games (12 games x .942), so the Cowboys have 0.7 wins over average in this bracket. In the 11-17 bracket, the Cowboys have a 9-3 record, where an average NFL team would be expected to win 8.6 games (12 games x .721). The Cowboys offense therefore gets the credit for 0.4 wins over average. Across all brackets, the wins over average total +2.9 games.

Dallas Cowboys Defense, 08-11
Points Scored	0-10	11-17	18-24	25-31	32+	Total
W/L record	1-7	4-8	9-7	8-6	12-2	34-30
Wins over average	0.5	0.6	0.7	-2.5	-0.9	-1.6

Cowboys defense: The Cowboys have a record of 1-7 over the last four years when the offense scored ten points or less. The average NFL team would be expected to win 0.5 games (8 games x .058), so the Cowboys scored 0.5 wins over average in this bracket. Across all brackets, the wins over average total -1.6 games the defense as per the table on the right.

So statistically, the Cowboys offense generated slightly more wins over average than the defense, but not by a wide margin. Both units struggled a lot over the last couple of years, and the difference between the two units isn't large enough to be able to point at one specific unit as the reason for the Cowboys' 34-30 record over the last four years.

It therefore stands to reason that it will take an improved performance on both the offense and the defense to make sure the Cowboys win enough games this season to make the playoffs again.

Coming up next, another look at Wins Over Average - but this time it'll about quarterbacks.

Cowboys Coming Back From Injury May Be Big Help For Team

2012-05-15T04:00:04Z

It is the season of unbridled optimism. Well, it is for me. And I am always looking for things that will feed my growing hope for the Dallas Cowboys to have great success in 2012. I am, after all, the keeper of the Kool Aid around here.

The great thing is that it is not much of a stretch to find good signs for the team. The roster looks to be getting younger and more talented, there is a real sense that Jason Garrett's Cowboy Way is gaining traction, and even the most cynical of the beat writers that hang around Valley Ranch seem to be getting a positive vibe from the team.

This is the first week that the rookies will be working side by side with the veterans in strength and conditioning sessions and learning the playbook.

Rookies are back at Valley Ranch to take part in the offseason conditioning program with the veterans. On Tuesday and Thursday, the Cowboys will continue their on-field teaching sessions with the coaches. Safety Matt Johnson, a fourth-round pick, is not allowed to attend until Eastern Washington is out of school.

It's very exciting to see the new faces, both the rookies and the free agent signees, all working together. But it is also very good to see some old faces back and healthy after some problems last year.

Related: 2011 Cowboys Injury Stats: Five-Year High In Games Lost To Injury

OCC has already done his typically excellent job of looking at the numbers from last season, which you can link to in the Related article above. I happened to notice several articles today about players who are coming back from injury, and it was just one more thing to get me worked up about the coming season. So I thought it would be a good time to look at all the players coming back and what they may mean for the team.

Take the jump to read more - but don't hurt yourself.

The biggest name is DeMarco Murray, who saw his breakout rookie season cut short by a broken leg. In a call to ESPN's Sportscenter, he said about the leg, simply, "It's great." He sounds pumped up about the coming season. He also talks a bit about Tony Romo and his often disparaged leadership.

A little later he throws in a remark about how the players are competing with each other in the workouts. They can't actually go against each other on the field, but it sounds like they are already trying to see who can make the biggest strides in the offseason. Not a bad sign at all.

There is no doubt that a healthy Murray will greatly increase the chances for the team to have success. The ability to run the ball and control the tempo of the game is integral to Jason Garrett's offensive scheme. That ability took a triple whammy with Phillip Tanner also going down late in the year, and Felix Jones missing four games himself. OCC's argument that the Cowboys should regress to the mean and not have as many injury issues is one I certainly want to cling to. It will certainly help to have all three of the running backs ready to go. With only UDFA possibilities available as alternatives, the team needs to get these three back. When they were healthy, they were a very good trio of runners.

It is not just the players that lost games last year that hurt the Cowboys. There were players who never had a chance to compete due to injuries that happened before the season started. Raymond Radway is the most well known, with his three-seconds-to-go disaster in preseason, but he was not alone. Teddy Williams, who got a look at wide receiver last year before an ill-fated collision with coach Jimmy Robinson, is trying to come back, this time as a cornerback.

He said it made him a better pro. Being around Cowboys veterans like Bradie James, Keith Brooking and Terence Newman taught him much about staying focused in the NFL, where he is trying to make it after being a sprinter in college.

"I might have dealt with so much physically, but it didn't hurt me a lot mentally," he said last weekend at the Cowboys' rookie minicamp. "It taught me a lot. It helped me grow up. I got a lot of advice from the older guys who have been through the fire and been through those injury-prone years."

OK. Maybe he could have picked a better set of mentors. But it does look like he his coming in with a good attitude and will at least push some of the other players in the mix at corner.

Teddy is one of the longer shots this year. Another player coming back, safety Barry Church, seems to be much more likely to come in and contribute. He had a shoulder injury last year and missed a couple of games, but is one of the players who looks to benefit from the full pre-season.

"I thought I was always going to have limited range of motion, so I was frustrated watching everybody else out there," he said last week at the Cowboys' sponsor appreciation golf tournament. "I got back in the weight room, the training staff got me right. Now I'm ready to go. Having that full range of motion is key, especially at the safety position."

The secondary was another unit that was particularly beat up last year (although it is hard to point to a unit that wasn't banged up to some degree). Last year's best cornerback, Mike Jenkins, was playing hurt for much of the season, and it showed. He deserves a lot of credit for playing through the injuries, but if the overall health of the team can improve, maybe players will not be forced to go back on the field when they need more time to really recover.

In a way, this circles back to the argument of how badly the lack of an offseason affected the Cowboys. A high number of injuries is one of the results you can see from inadequate conditioning and training, and as Daryl Johnston observed in a recent interview, there were a lot of injuries in 2011 that may have been at least partly attributable to the lack of an offseason. Hopefully a full program with Mike Woicik and the expected regression to the mean will combine to help keep the team in better shape and lead to fewer missed games. There will, of course, be injuries. Last year, the problem was compounded because there was precious little depth at far too many positions. For the upcoming season, we can at least entertain some reasonable hope that there will be more capable backups for the starters, so when the inevitable happens, the next man can step up. And not limp up, like Jenkins, Tony Romo and others did.

Which is why it feels good to see so many of the hurt players coming back. Some of them are starters like Murray and Jay Ratliff and Miles Austin, some will be contending for starting jobs like Church and Bill Nagy, and others are just looking to be solid backups, like Williams. Even if some only serve to increase the competition for slots on the roster, that will be a contribution to the final product. Hopefully, the team will roll into the first game in New Jersey with everyone healthy. And then stay largely that way.

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Is 2012 The Year Of The Tree?: Kevin Ogletree's Last Chance To Make It With The Dallas Cowboys

2012-05-15T00:00:02Z

Entering the 2009 offseason, the Dallas Cowboys had just released the talented but troubled Terrell Owens. Many NFL analysts came out and said the Cowboys offense would suffer due to the loss of Owens. Those analysts were wrong due to the breakout of Miles Austin. Obviously Austin overshadows any other performances from the Cowboys offense that year, but there was another undrafted free agent wide receiver who made the team that year.

Kevin Ogletree joined the Cowboys with the hopes of making the 53-man roster. As a fellow New Yorker, I felt an instant connection to the Queens receiver.

Ogletree is entering his fourth NFL season. His career started off with so much promise, but it hasn't developed into what I had expected to see from Ogletree. After losing a productive wide receiver in Laurent Robinson who took his talents to Jacksonville for more money, the #3 wide receiver position has an opening waiting to be taken. Will it be Kevin Ogletree that seizes the reins?

Frankly I was surprised the Cowboys decided to re-sign Ogletree this offseason. After two consecutive lackluster seasons, I felt that the front office would not retain him. The Cowboys made Ogletree one of their last free agent signings. Perhaps some in the organization still believe in the young man, but I have my doubts to whether Ogletree will ever become a reliable wide receiver in the NFL.

Athletic ability isn't the problem here at all. Ogletree ran a 4.46 40-yard dash, jumped a 36 inch vertical and timed a 4.08 20-yard shuttle at the 2009 NFL Combine. In high school he was a star athlete at multiple sports. Ogletree was the Daily News and Newsday player of the year after he had a huge senior season at Holy Cross High School in New York.

During his career in the NFL, Ogletree has had trouble with route running and football intelligence. There were far too many times last year when he didn't know what to do and because of that he ran the wrong route. This was clearly evident in the first Redskins game last year. If Ogletree wants to make this team, he will need to wrap his head around the playbook and do a better job of grasping the plays. He has the athletic ability and speed to be a good #3 wide receiver, but must improve his route running.

Maybe his problem all along has been a lack of focus on the game of football. His recent comments suggest he is now focused.

"I haven’t, for a while, had football as my life, my focus," he said this week at the Cowboys golf tournament in Grapevine. "Some things happened in the offseason that really forced me to look in the mirror and dig deep and find out what I want to be.

"It’s a good opportunity for me. I’ve got to go out and grab it. Like I said, some bad things have turned me into a better person."

His brother was the victim of a shooting back in January. Now I understand that is a horrible incident for anyone to go through, but why did Ogletree lack focus to begin with the past few years? It took a life-changing event for him to change his attitude, hopefully that puts him on the right path to success this season.

The shooting of his brother has also changed his mentality.

"That specifically has changed my attitude and work ethic,"

Wide receivers coach Jimmy Robinson recently talked about the #3 wide receiver position and Kevin Ogletree.

"We’re hopeful that somebody emerges and steps up and kind of claims that job, and if not, then it’ll be by committee," receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said Saturday after a practice at the Cowboys’ rookie minicamp at Valley Ranch. "Time will tell."

"I’m hopeful that he can. Again, that’s an unknown at this point, but he’s had a good off-season. All I can say is so far, he’s worked extremely hard. He’s gotten stronger. He’s gotten bigger. So again, time will tell."

After reading his comments, I get the impression that he isn't too thrilled or confident about Ogletree. We really won't get a feel for what we have at wide receiver until training camp starts, but there is no ringing endorsement from Jimmy Robinson about who will step up and seize the #3 wide receiver role.

Jason Garrett talked about Ogletree having the most experience out of the wide receivers fighting for the job. I honestly don't see experience being too much of a factor here. Of course having NFL experience is important, but Ogletree has only 25 career catches in three seasons. It's not like he has been in the league for years and produced on a consistent level. Whoever steps up and takes this job will be the receiver who can make plays, run the correct routes and consistently get open. The best player is going to win this job, not experience.

This is Ogletree's defining moment as a Dallas Cowboy. The talent is there, but he needs to get his head right and work hard to earn the job. I see Raymond Radway and Danny Coale beating out Ogletree for a job this summer, but that doesn't mean I do not want to see Ogletree succeed. This is going to be one of the best position battles we have had in years, and may the best man win.

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