Bolts From The Blue

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos - Intel - November 22, 2009

2009-11-20T21:16:18Z

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos - Intel - November 22, 2009

Why the Broncos losing to the Redskins is even more important

2009-11-20T19:45:52Z

Let's play the what if game. What if the Chargers beat the Broncos on Sunday? Well, then they are in sole possession of first place and, as the saying goes, "Control Their Own Destiny." That means they would win the division if they won all their remaining games and the Broncos won all their remaining games. However, as much as I love the Chargers, I'm not sure I see them finishing the season on an 11 game winning streak. So, what else could happen?

What if the Chargers lose a game (following a victory over the Broncos) and the Broncos win all of theirs? Well, then the two teams finish in a tie at 12-4.

First tie-breaker (we all know this) is head-to-head. No help there since in this scenario they split the series.

Next up, divisional record. Chargers are current 3-1 and with a win over the Broncos would be 4-1. A loss to the Chiefs would be a problem in this scenario since the Broncos will finish 5-1 in the division if they win all their games except the Chargers game. So, the Chiefs can't be the Chargers 1 loss if the Chargers and Broncos both finish 12-4.

Next up, common opponents. This is where the Redskins game is important. Every opponent on the Chargers schedule is also an opponent of the Broncos except the Titans and Dolphins (the Broncos have the Colts and Patriots). Since we already know that the divisional records would be the same in this scenario (5-1), then that leaves 8 common opponents. Currently, the Chargers are 2-2 in these games with 4 left to play (Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Redskins). The Broncos are 3-3 in these games with 2 left to play (Giants and Eagles). The 2 Chargers losses are to the same teams that Broncos lost to (Ravens and Steelers), but since the Broncos lost to the Redskins it providers an opening. So all the Chargers would need to do is beat the those 4 teams (Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Redskins) and they would win the tie-breaker in this scenario.

So the one team the Chargers can afford to lose to if they beat the Broncos and win all but 1 of their remaining games? The Tennessee Titans.

I will point out that if the Broncos lose to the Colts and win all their other games and the Chargers lose 2 of their remaining games and neither loss is to the Titans so that they both finish 11-5, then the Broncos win the division. This is because at least one of those Chargers losses would either include the Chiefs (lose the divisional tie-breaker) or it both losses are to common opponents (and the Chargers would lose the common games tie-breaker with a record of 4-4 to the Broncos' 5-3).

The fourth tie-breaker is conference record. Basically, the Chargers would lose this tie-breaker if they lost to the Bengals or Browns and the teams finished tied (and, obviously the Broncos don't have any non-Colts losses). The Broncos loss to the Redskins actually works against the Chargers here since it was a non-conference game, but we are really getting into some odd scenarios here.

The best way to think of it might be this. If the Chargers beat the Broncos, then any non-Titans loss by the Chargers needs an accompanying non-Colts loss by the Broncos if they are going to finish in a tie. Or, maybe the best way to think of it is: Don't finish in a tie. Easier said than done.

Any questions?

Chargers Roll with Scott Mruczkowski My favorite Chargers Roll to date. No question about it. ...

2009-11-20T17:31:40Z

Chargers Roll with Scott Mruczkowski

My favorite Chargers Roll to date. No question about it. Mooch is stellar, and there's not an ounce of BS in his answers.

Orton's Grade II sprain will keep him out this weekend "barring miracle."

2009-11-20T16:43:01Z

Orton's Grade II sprain will keep him out this weekend "barring miracle."

Football Outsiders Injury Expert Will Carroll

Game Preview: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

2009-11-20T13:52:25Z

More photos » by Chris Park - AP

"Last year the government spent less on the Ministry of Silly Walks than it did on National Defense!" (AP Photo/Chris Park)

Browse more photos »

Here was how I started the preview for the last Broncos/Chargers matchup.

So, the bye week sucked, huh? Back to business in a big way this week with the Week 6 AFC West Championship Super Bowl Extravaganza (W6AFCWCSBE for short).

I also predicted that all hell would break loose if the Chargers lost, but I was wrong. I had failed to think that the Chargers could play a good game, show some promise, and still lose the game. Silly me. Anyways, the stakes are even higher for this week's game, which shall be dubbed the Week 11 AFC West Championship Super Bowl Extravaganza Spectacular (W11AFCWCSBES for short), aka the Unofficial AFC West Championship Game. How exciting!

When the Broncos Have the Ball

via bp3.blogger.com

Why does the Bronco have a horn? Is that really a unicorn? I think that's a unicorn, and an underfed one at that.

According to what I've picked up talking to Broncos fans over at MHR, their recent slide has more to do with the defenses problems stopping the run than anything that's gone wrong with the offense. The poor offensive output against the Redskins had everything to do with trying to comeback with a backup QB who hadn't been in an NFL game in years. So, in looking at the numbers, things should be relatively the same to the last time these two teams met.

Week 6:

6th in the league in offensive yards per game, but 22nd in points per game.
The Broncos have less rushing TDs inside the red zone (2) than the Chargers (3) even though they've played 5 games to the Chargers 4.

Week 11:

22nd in offensive yards per game and 24th in points per game.
17th in passing yards per game, 18th in yards per passing attempt.
24th in the league in "explosive" passing plays (plays of more than 20 yards).
16th in rushing yards per game, 16th in rushing yards per carry.
21st in the league in "explosive" rushing plays (plays of more than 20 yards).
In the same amount of games (9), the Broncos have managed to score half as many rushing TDs in the red zone (3) as the Chargers (6). That says to me that this is not an offensive line and a rushing attack that is going to punch you in the mouth or push you around.

via image.examiner.com

In most of these game previews, I stuff the thing full of facts and stats. Before the Week 6 game, perhaps because the game meant everything to the Chargers and we were all hoping for a performance we hadn't yet seen, I posted almost no stats and instead went for opinion and conjecture. How's that for journalistic integrity? Anyways, even without having anything to compare it to.....let's take a look at the current stats for the Bolts D.

14th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed.
Still ranked low (28th) in terms of 3rd down conversions by the opponent.
11th in passing yards allowed, 16th best in terms of passing yards per attempt against.
Tied for 6th best in explosive pass plays allowed (20).
23rd in rushing yards allowed per game, 8th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.1). So the Chargers actually do a fairly good job at slowing down the run but, because there's not a ton of stops and the passing defense is so good, teams seem to be running it a lot against them.
7th in the league in terms of rushing attempts per game against. No other team in the league has as low of an allowed YPC (4.1) and such a high number of attempts against them (29.2 per game). The next closest is the Broncos, who allow 3.8 yards per carry and get run on 27.6 times per game.
1st in the league in explosive running plays against them (2). The Chargers have yet to allow a run of 40+ yards. I'm no expert, but I have to attribute that to good tackling by the secondary (specifically Eric Weddle) and the team as a whole. All of these numbers combined seem to say that the only thing missing from the Bolts having a dominating D right now is a dominating defensive line (or at least a dominating Nose Tackle like Jamal Williams).

Advantage: N/A. I can't know who has the advantage here without know who is starting at QB. Even then, since I have no idea how bad Kyle Orton's ankle is or how much better Chris SImms can be with a week of practice, it would be difficult. Looking at the stats alone, the Broncos offense is very average. It'll be San Diego's job to try to keep them there and keep their playmakers in check.

When the Chargers Have the Ball

via a.espncdn.com

This seems as good a time as any to announce that BFTB interviewed Kellen Winslow last night. I'll try to post the transcription of the interview later today, but it's more likely that I'll find time to get it up tomorrow. Kellen was awesome, had a great sense of humor, and talked a great deal about Air Coryell vs. the 2009 Chargers offense. Really, really interesting stuff. Also, his pick for the greatest TE of all time took me completely by surprise and it probably will for you too.

A look at the Chargers stats and rankings:

18th in terms of offensive yards per game, 6th in terms of points per game. That is exactly how you want that ratio to go, especially with a poor running game. This means that the Chargers are converting their opportunities into points quite often.
12th in terms of 3rd down conversion rate. +2 on the turnover battle (11th best).
7th in passing yards per game, 2nd in passing yards per attempt. This is another great sign that the Chargers offense is not producing "inflated" stats with short passes and screens. When the Chargers pass the ball, good things happen.
3rd in the league in explosive passing plays (34).
32nd (last) for rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt (3.2). Let us not pretend otherwise.
26th in the league for explosive rushing plays (3).

via www.lonestarsportz.com

Where, oh where, has that vaunted Denver Broncos attacking 3-4 defense gone? Well, the easy answer is that although the Broncos were able to bring in top-tier talent to start and therefore turn around the team in a hurry, it takes more than one offseason to build talented depth behind those players. Now that the Broncos are beginning to battle a few injuries, and the veterans are starting to lose that extra pep they had in the beginning of the season, players with flaws in their game are getting on the field. Let's see what the stats say.

6th in yards per game allowed, 4th in points per game given up. Sounds like a strong defense to me.
17th in 3rd down conversions allowed. 2nd least defensive penalties called against them.
19th in time of possession. That's a lot of time on the field for a team of aging veterans without great depth behind them.
5th in passing yards allowed, 11th in passing yards per attempt against.
10th in explosive passing plays allowed (21).
2nd in sacks.
11th in rushing yards per game allowed, 6th in rushing yards per attempt allowed.

I don't know fellas. Three game skid or not, the stats are saying that this is still one of the best defenses in the league.

Advantage: Tie. So the passing game is great and the running game stinks. What else is new? The offensive unit, led by Philip Rivers, has been effective all season. Usually, if the Chargers defense can hold the opponent under 30 points (which they couldn't the last time they faces the Broncos), there's a good chance the Bolts walk off the field with smiles on their faces. Unfortunately, that may not be the case when you're facing a strong defense on the road when they held you to 23 points when you played at home.

I have no idea who wins this game. I think the Chargers' momentum and the Broncos' home field advantage cancel each other out. I also think Orton and Simms are entirely capable of running the type of offense (short passes) that can just kill the Bolts. The key to this game, for me, is how often Ron Rivera turns up the blitz with Kevin Ellison, Eric Weddle, Steve Gregory and Paul Oliver.

Just like the last game was determined by who could score the most on special teams, I believe this game will be determined by who wins the turnover battle. The Chargers (+2) and the Broncos (+3) are pretty evenly matched in that regard. Actually, they're fairly evenly matched across the board. It should be a fun, competitive game.

Go Chargers.

Everyone except Clary and Hardwick back at practice ... Orton doesn't practice in Denver -- ka

2009-11-19T22:17:38Z

Everyone except Clary and Hardwick back at practice ... Orton doesn't practice in Denver -- ka

Kevin Acee's Twitter

Another day that Orton hasn't practiced ... sounds like a pretty serious sprain

Predicting the Score by the Numbers

2009-11-19T19:15:20Z

Well there is good news and there is bad news, the bad news is my prediction didn't do so well last week but since the Chargers won the good news is that my prediction didn't do so well last week. Click below to see what I came up with this week against the Broncos.

Major Stat Geek Warning Below!!!

So far this season the Broncos have scored 18.6 points per game and allowed 16.8 points per game thus far. The Broncos opponents have scored 20.4 points and allowed 19.6 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Broncos have scored 1 fewer point per game than the average and have allowed 3.6 points fewer per game than the average.

	Points For	Points Against
Broncos	18.6	16.8
Bengals	22	16.3
Browns	8.7	25
Raiders	9.8	24.1
Cowboys	24.9	18.8
Patriots	28.8	16.7
Chargers	26.3	22.4
Ravens	24.7	17.1
Steelers	23	17.4
Redskins	15.6	19
Average	20.4	19.6
Adjustment	-1.0	-3.6

The Chargers have scored 26.3 points per game and allowed 22.4 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.8 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 5 more points per game than the average and are giving up 2.6 points per game than the average.

	Points For	Points Against
Chargers	26.3	22.4
Raiders	9.8	24.1
Ravens	24.7	17.1
Dolphins	24.2	25.2
Steelers	23	17.4
Broncos	18.6	16.8
Chiefs	15.8	23.9
Raiders	9.8	24.1
Giants	25.8	22.7
Eagles	26.9	20.4
Average	19.8	21.3
Adjustment	5.0	2.6

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week’s game you get the following:

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 26.3 points, the Broncos allow 3.6 fewer points than average, Chargers should score 22.7 points

The Chargers allow on average 22.4 points, the Broncos score on average 1 point less than average, Chargers should allow 21.3 points.

Broncos

The Broncos score on average 18.6 points, the Chargers allow 2.5 points more than average, the Broncos should score 21.1 points.

The Broncos allow on average 16.8 points , the Chargers score on average 5 points higher than average, the Broncos should allow 21.8 points.

Team            Pts For     Pts Against
Chargers       22.7             21.3
Broncos         21.2             21.8

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 22
Broncos 21

The ligaments in Kyle Orton's left ankle are torn. He certainly isn't. Orton adamantly wants to...

2009-11-19T05:28:05Z

The ligaments in Kyle Orton's left ankle are torn. He certainly isn't.

Orton adamantly wants to start Sunday against San Diego and help the Denver Broncos snap out of a monthlong funk that has wiped out their 3½-game cushion over the Chargers in the AFC West.

Orton sits as Simms takes reps

Makes you wonder, who would the Chargers prefer to go up against? The healthy second-stringer, or the hobbled first-stringer?

JaMarcus Russell out as Raiders QB

2009-11-19T00:01:18Z

JaMarcus Russell out as Raiders QB

Coach Tom Cable said after practice Wednesday that Gradkowski will get the nod Sunday against Cincinnati. Cable says the plan is for Gradkowski to start the rest of the season.

Jyles Tucker on Injured Reserve. Corey Clark signed from the Practice Squad to the Active Roster...

2009-11-18T21:48:54Z

Jyles Tucker on Injured Reserve. Corey Clark signed from the Practice Squad to the Active Roster and Gerald Cadogan to Practice Squad.

Twitter / San Diego Chargers: Jyles Tucker on Injured Re ...

Well at least we have another option at OT/OG besides Dombrowski now.

Week 10 Review: Philadelphia Eagles at Chargers. Final: 31-23 Chargers.

2009-11-18T15:11:18Z

Another masterful showing by Philip Rivers, a vintage performance from LaDainian Tomlinson, and a stingy red-zone defense give the Chargers a 1st place tie in the AFC West.

Eagles vs Chargers boxscore

It's amazing that less than 1 month ago, the Chargers were left for dead by the Denver Broncos following a 34-23 defeat at Qualcomm Stadium. The vultures, as well as angry Chargers' fans (myself prominently among them) were ready to strip the decaying flesh off the carcasses of A.J. Smith, Norv Turner, Ron Rivera, and numerous players on the roster.

It was QB Philip Rivers who insisted that we put away our torches and pitchforks, telling us "We just have to start winning games and hopefully in a month we’ll look up and be in good shape." By defeating the Eagles on Sunday, in game that was dominated by the Chargers for the 1st 3 quarters, Rivers and the Chargers made good on their promise.

Aided for the 2nd straight week by an opponent's unusual decision making (Eagles Head Coach Andy Reid in this case), the Chargers capitalized on most of their opportunities, limited the damage done by their opponents, and rode a solid effort from coaches and players into a 1st place tie with the suddenly reeling Denver Broncos. Grades are below the jump...

Quarterbacks: A

It was evident in the game plan that the Chargers did not want to get into a shootout with the Eagles. Rivers was asked to manage the game, control the ball, and keep the Eagles offense of the field. By any measure, he succeeded. Rivers completed 20 of 25 attempts for 2 touchdowns, one being a gorgeous read and throw to FB Mike Tolbert, who ran to the open space left by Philadelphia's blitzing linebackers and scampered for a 20-yard TD. For the other TD, Rivers okey-doked CB Asante Samuel with a pump fake, then found WR Legedu Naanee alone in the back of the endzone - also a 20-yard score. However, Rivers was at his best on the Chargers' final drive. Having only converted 1of 5 3rd downs during the game, Rivers converted two 3rd down plays, bleeding more than 6 minutes off the clock and leaving Eagles QB Donovan McNabb only 30 seconds to mount a final drive. 2 weeks, 2 huge performances in the clutch.

Running Backs: A-

LaDainian Tomlinson has still got it. After being the victim of nagging injuries and erratic offensive line play, Tomlinson broke out with a vintage performance. 24 carries for 96 yards and 2 TDs. I think it's fair to say Tomlinson is not the explosive RB he was 3 years ago, but he is still an effective downhill runner who has enough speed to turn a 5 yard run into a 20-yard TD, as was the case Sunday. Darren Sproles added a couple of nice runs and catches off screen passes. Both backs were effective in pass protection. As mentioned above, FB Mike Tolbert turned a 3 yard hot route into a 20-yard TD - he has deceptive speed and needs to be incorporated more in the passing game. Both Tolbert and FB Jacob Hester has their best days as lead blockers.

Wide Receivers: A-

The Eagles determined that they would not let WR Vincent Jackson beat them. This was fine, because the rest of the Chargers' receivers stepped up and made the plays when needed. TE Antonio Gates dominated the middle of the Eagles' defense, catching 7 passes for 78 yards. Malcom Floyd contributed three catches - one of which was a spectacular reach back across the middle for a 1st down. Another was one one of his patented jump-ball grabs, setting up San Diego for their 2nd TD. Naanee, in addition to his TD catch, made a huge play on the last drive, turning a 3 yard catch into an 18 yard gain that all but sealed the game. Though he had only one reception, Jackson made the play when needed, picking up the initial first down on the Chargers' last possession.

Offensive Line: B+

By any measure, this was the O-Line's best overall game of the season. Without exception, the Chargers' stymied the Eagles' various blitz packages. 2 sacks were allowed, ironically on 4-man rushes. The first, both LG Kris Dielman and RG Louis Vasquez were blown up by DTs Darren Howard and Victor Abiamiri, respectively. The other sack was allowed by reserve OL Brandyn Dombroski (subbing for RT Jeromey Clary) against DE Juqua Parker. Run blocking was significantly improved across the board. Dielman in particular, made a great block to spring Tomlinson's 20-yard TD run. Overall, the Chargers were equally adept running in power situations and spread situations.

Defensive Line: C

The Eagles mounted no serious effort to run the ball, although the D-Line continued their struggles in defending draw plays. By and large, the Eagles comitted themselves to winning through the air, and virtually neutralized the Chargers' defensive line in the process. DE Luis Castillo was double-teamed most of the game, which prevented him from opening room for the OLBs Shaun Phillips and Larry English. However, the line made it's presence known on the Eagles' first scoring drive, bottling up the middle and holding Philadelphia to a chip shot FG from the 1-yard line.

Linebackers: B-

OLBs Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, and Larry English were neutralized by the Eagles offensive line. No sacks, and only handful of tackles and hurries between the three of them. Phillips had the only tackles for losses among the entire group. Inside, however, ILBs Brandon Siler, Stephen Cooper, and Kevin Burnett played very well, contributing a total of 19 tackles. Tackling among the three was consistently strong, and Siler got the only sack among the front seven. The only black mark against the ILBs, and it's one that cost the Chargers 10 points - failure to hold onto interceptions. Each ILB dropped one interception, and all three were among the biggest hidden plays of the game (see below).

Secondary: C-

It seems evident that Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera adopted a "bend-but-don't-break" approach, which explains the space that CBs Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason, and Steve Gregory allowed at the line. Unfortuantely, the pass rush was ineffective, and the group was torched through the air. Tackling was an issue for the entire group for first time in 2-3 weeks. Safties Eric Weddle, Kevin Ellison, and Paul Oilver were mostly ineffective running the safety blitz, with Oliver recording the lone sack among the group. In particular, the Eagles took advantage of the slot position, manned by Gregory, with WR Jason Avant amassing 156 yards on 8 catches. Cason was also beat for a TD in the 4th quarter, when he dropped coverage on WR Jeremy Maclin.

Special Teams: B

One of the major keys to this game was controlling Eagles WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in the return game. By and large, the coverage units succeeded. Neither player had a significant return. On the other side, Sproles was unable to break a big return, but made a terrific play early in the game, fielding a punt at the Chargers' 8 yard line and preventing the Eagles from downing the ball inside the 5. P Mike Scifres and PK Nate Kaeding were their usual effective selves.

Coaching: B

For the 2nd straight week, Norv Turner took advantage of a ridiculous game plan by the opposing coach, this time the Eagles' Andy Reid. Turner was smarter in the use of his timeouts, and consistently kept the Eagles defense off balance with a good mix of run and pass plays. In particular, his use of the Wildcat netted a pair of nice runs for Tomlinson and Naanee. In this game, he was also smart not to get into a shootout against the Eagles offense. On defense, Ron Rivera applied the "bend-but-don't break" approach, and it was effective in keeping the Eagles out of the endzone for 3 quarters. In some instances, he was using a 2-man line, practically begging the Eagles to run the ball. To his credit, and the Eagles' coaches discredit, Philadelphia never really attempted to run the ball. Some changes need to be made to the safety blitzes and zone blitzes, as it appeared the Eagles were not surprised by any of the blitz calls.

Hidden Plays (Non scoring, non-turnover plays that directly affected the outcome):

In the 1st quarter, Eagles' LB Jeremiah Trotter commits a holding penalty that backs the Eagles offensive inside their own 5 yard line, leading to a bad punt and good field position on the Chargers 1st scoring drive.
In the 2nd quarter, Norv Tuner calls a counter on 3rd-and-inches with Darren Sproles. The play is stuffed and the Chargers give the ball back to the Eagles with some momentum.
Next Eagles possession - Brandon Siler drops an INT inside the Eagles' 30 yard line. The next play, RB Brian Westbrook gains 18 yards on a screen pass to set up the Eagles' 2nd scoring drive.
3rd quarter. The Eagles stuff Sproles on a run play, but the drive continues when DT Mike Patterson jumps offsides. Rivers' TD pass to Naanee occurs on the next play.
Naanee's excessive celebration forces the Chargers to kick off from their own 15 yard line, setting up the Eagles next possession at their own 47 yard line.
On the following drive, dropped INTs by Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper allow the Eagles to continue their 1st TD drive of the game.

Biggest Positives:

The emergence of a legitimate running game.
Rivers relies on receivers not named Vincent Jackson to make plays.
Showing resiliency on the final possession and denying the Eagles the opportunity for a game-winning TD drive.
Red zone defense was stout for 3 quarters.
Chargers have scored 10 TD in their last 11 trips inside the opponent's 20.

Biggest Areas of Concern:

Failure of blitzes to get consistent pressure on McNabb.
Erratic tackling in the secondary.
Success of opponents using slot (3rd and 4th) receivers.
Defense is unable to hold onto turnovers.

Looking ahead to:

Reclaiming 1st place with a victory over the Denver Broncos. I am expecting to enjoy eating some crow on Sunday evening. The Chargers need to attack the hell out of Denver QB Kyle Orton, especially with his gimpy ankle. Staying patient against the Broncos' defense will be key.

State of the AFC West Week 10

2009-11-18T04:32:00Z

Those standings look a little strange don't they? First of all, it's kind of funny that the top two and the bottom two teams have the same records. Second of all, it's starting to resemble last year's standings more and more. For the second year in a row, it looks like the division will come down to the second match-up between the Chargers and Broncos. The game will be played in Denver this season but the momentum of the teams in certainly the same. The Chargers have won 4 in a row and the Broncos have lost 3 in a row. This season there will still be games to be played but the losing team will essentially have to win out to win the division. The Raiders and the Chiefs will actually play a big part as potential spoilers; the Broncos play the Chiefs twice and the Raiders once more. If the Broncos lose on Sunday they will have to sweep those three games and I don't expect those two teams to roll over with a big chance to play spoiler against a division opponent. The Chargers play the Chiefs once more at Qualcomm after the Broncos game which will be their last divisional game.

Click the jump to see where all the teams are at

AFC West Standings

	W	L	PF	PA
Denver	6	3	167	151
San Diego	6	3	237	202
Oakland	2	7	88	217
Kansas City	2	7	142	215

(updated 11.17.2009 at 1:16 AM PST)

Kansas City Chiefs: Things aren't getting any better for the Chiefs. As you have probably already heard, WR Dwayne Bowe was just suspended four games for testing positive for PEDs. Bowe is probably the Chiefs' best player and losing him is going to be a big blow to their already meager offense. You have to wonder if the Chiefs knew this was coming when they claimed Chris Chambers. Matt Cassel will probably have even more trouble completing passes now. But hey, at least they beat the Raiders and got their first rushing TD of the season right? It doesn't get any easier for the Chiefs as their next three games are vs. Steelers, @ San Diego, vs. Denver. Their next divisional game is @ San Diego for which there are still 7,000 tickets remaining. With both games left against Denver and one more against San Diego the Chiefs will surely try to play spoiler within the division so they still have a big chance to decide the division.

Kansas City Chiefs Injuries

Probable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jamaal Charles	leg	11/16/2009

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mike Vrabel	knee	11/16/2009
Dantrell Savage	ankle	11/16/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Devard Darling	knee	09/01/2009
Jarrad Page	calf	11/04/2009
Mike Goff	shoulder	11/11/2009
Jackie Battle	shoulder	10/14/2009
Colin Brown	undisclosed	09/05/2009

Oakland Raiders: So the Raiders have lost 7 straight at home against the Chiefs, no big deal right? Well, since the middle of the 2007 season, no team in the NFL has been worse than the Chiefs. On a good note, the Raiders did have a fantastic day on the ground, especially RB Michael Bush who had 119 yards on 14 carries. I still really wish the Chargers had ended up trading for him. The routine stayed the same for the Raiders; Jamarcus Russell played poorly compounded by constant drops by rookie WR Demetrius Heyward-Bey. Russell was benched again in favor of Bruce Gradkowski who played even worse. Head coach Tom Cable, who probably won't be head coach much longer, hasn't yet announced who will be his starter this Sunday. Maybe it will be Charlie Frye. Hey at least P Shane Lechler kicked for 531 yards right? Now they get to play the Bengals, Cowboys, and Steelers. Their next and last division game is week 15 against the Broncos.

Oakland Raiders Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tommy Kelly	ribs	11/16/2009

Doubtful

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Javon Walker	hamstring	11/16/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
John Bowie	knee	09/30/2009
Oren O'Neal	ankle	10/14/2009

Denver Broncos: Mr. Hyde showed his face last Sunday when the Broncos lost to the Redskins. Losses against the Ravens and Steelers are understandable but the Redskins are really, really bad. Another thing happened on Sunday that hadn't happened in Bronco land all season, injuries. RT Ryan Harris is already out for this Sunday's game and QB Kyle Orton injured his ankle and is questionable for this Sunday's game vs the Chargers. From what I've heard and read they are basically going to play it by ear and see how much he can practice if it all. It's not out of the question that he plays after not practicing all week, they need to win this game and they know it, especially coach McDaniels. Back-up QB Chris Simms had an awful time after Orton left the game and while I'm sure he'd be better after a week of practice he certainly isn't Tom Brady. During their game on Sunday, on that fake punt, the Redskins did everything to show that a trick play was in the works. The Broncos still couldn't stop it. Clearly the Broncos have strayed pretty far from where they were after beating the Chargers. Their next division game is this Sunday against the Chargers; if they lose it will probably be too late to get back on track to win the division. I'm not sure SBNation's injury widget is very helpful....

Denver Broncos Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Ryan McBean	knee	11/16/2009
Josh Barrett	hamstring	11/16/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Nick Greisen	knee	08/05/2009

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers were able to establish a running game and stop the run in one game on Sunday, which is something they will need to continue if they want to succeed going forward. Unfortunately, the run defense came at the expense of the pass defense, although that was also a function of the defensive game-plan against QB Donovan McNabb as well as the lack of a great pass rush. The Chargers had a great pass-rush over the previous games; injuries to Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips probably didn't help things. Hopefully they are feeling better this Sunday and getting pressure on whomever is the Broncos QB; the Broncos quick WRs can do crossing routes just as well as the Eagles WRs. If C Nick Hardwick is able to return this Sunday it will be a huge upgrade on pass and run blocking. If we get ahead early I think LT will have another big day and will soften up the Bronco's secondary when we need to pass the ball. The Broncos have given up a huge amount of rushing yards in their last 4 games and I still think the Chargers are at their best when LT is pounding the ball up the middle. After this Sunday against the Broncos, the Chargers have their last divisional game against the Chiefs, and then a game against the Browns which should be nice. As far as injuries, it looks like Jeromy Clary and Tim Dobbins will be able to play, and hopefully Travis Johnson, too, since the DL by committee thing has worked out pretty well so far.

San Diego Chargers Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Travis Johnson	leg	11/16/2009
Jeromey Clary	ankle	11/16/2009
Tim Dobbins	knee	11/16/2009

Doubtful

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Nick Hardwick	ankle	11/16/2009
Jyles Tucker	ankle	11/16/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Ryon Bingham	arm	09/05/2009
Jamal Williams	triceps	09/19/2009
Antwan Applewhite	hamstring	10/20/2009
Brandon Hughes	knee	09/02/2009

Poll

Which team is more dysfunctional right now?

Chiefs’ Bowe suspended 4 games

2009-11-17T19:12:08Z

Chiefs’ Bowe suspended 4 games

Just when you thought the Chiefs couldn't get any worse. As a reminder, the Chargers play the Chiefs on Nov. 29, which would coincide with the 2nd game of the suspension. Also, I have to wonder if the Chiefs knew this was coming when they claimed Chambers.

Downtown S.D. site set for stadium site

2009-11-17T17:18:15Z

Downtown S.D. site set for stadium site

The city of San Diego’s downtown redevelopment agency is poised to hire a New York consultant for $160,000 to study how to pay for a downtown football stadium.

The hiring of sports finance consultant Mitchell Ziets and Evolution Media Capital LLC is a sign San Diego is moving quickly three weeks after a rare private meeting between Mayor Jerry Sanders and Chargers president Dean Spanos to discuss the team’s desire for a new stadium.

Tila Tequila is Suing Shawne Merriman

2009-11-17T13:05:57Z

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

"I put my left foot in, I put my right foot in....what do I shake all about?" (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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from ProFootballTalk.com

As expected, the woman whom Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman allegedly battered and falsely imprisoned has filed suit as a result of an incident occurring in early September.

Per TMZ.com, Tila Tequila Nguyen claims that Merriman has a bad temper and a drug problem, that he grabbed her, "shook her like a rag doll," choked her, and threw her down. She also claims that Merriman "humiliated" her because of the fact that she's bisexual.

I'm not taking this seriously. Considering the police decided not to press charges, I think Tila's legal team is going to have a hard time getting a verdict in their favor.

However, I doubt that's the point. This seems like a PR move (good for her, bad for him). It's just another way for Tila to keep her name in the papers.

Chargers Stat of the Day: Defensive Ratings

2009-11-17T12:05:35Z

by Chris Park - AP

The San Diego Chargers defense swarms Brian Westbrook during the Chargers 31-23 victory in a NFL football game Sunday Nov. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

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Attention all nerds. Do you head straight to Football Outsiders when you're looking for better-than-average stats? Well, I found another website that you're going to want to bookmark. (Editor's Note: This is not a paid advertisement. I've never even talked with the guys from this website. So if this sounds like a sales-pitch, it's not.)

ProFootballFocus.com is a website that football stat-geeks have been dying for without knowing it. Just about any question you have about the team can be answered within their stats. Want to know who has played the most defensive plays for the Bolts? Eric Weddle, with 544. How about which player has the most QB Pressures? It's a tie between Luis Castillo and Shaun Phillips (both have 10). Wondering who the best MLB on the Chargers is? You'll be surprised.

Let's delve into some of PFF's defensive stats and player ratings...

I was taught a long time ago to never argue with someone who was smarter than me. I almost never abide by this rule, but today I'll make an exception. These guys have done such a great job at collecting stats, that I'm going to assume they do just as good of a job comparing them.

In terms of defense, it appears they look at all of the stats (sacks, QB hits, QB pressures, tackles, penalties, missed tackles, stops) and compare them relative to the number of plays the player had played. So a played like Brandon Siler, who has 10 stops on 104 plays, would be looked at as a more efficient player when he's on the field than Stephen Cooper (22 stops in 454 plays).

Each player is rated based upon their work rushing the passer, stopping the run and in pass coverage. Also factored in are things like Penalties being called against that player (surprisingly, leading the Chargers D in penalties is a tie between Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Larry English) and Missed Tackles.

The missed tackles stat also needs to be looked at proportionally against actual tackles. For instance, Stephen Cooper leads the team with 10 missed tackles to go with his 48 tackles on the season. However, that's probably not as bad as Antonio Cromartie's 6 missed tackles with only 15 tackles to his name.

So, follow me down the rabbit hole as we look at PFF's ratings of Chargers defensive players by position group. The number next to each player is their PFF Rating, which is roughly explained here. In a nutshell, zero is average across the league and any number above that is above average. Any number below is obviously below average. Also, for the sake of this not being too confusing, I'm leaving out any player who has been on the field for less than 75 snaps.

Defensive Line

Travis Johnson -1.5
Ian Scott -3.0
Alfonso Boone -3.1
Ogemdi Nwagbuo -3.1
Jacques Cesaire -9.5
Luis Castillo -10.3

How about that trade for Johnson? The Castillo number is a bit jarring, but appears to be accurate. Although he's near the top on the team in terms of defensive stops and QB pressures, apparently relative to the number of plays he's played it's just not as impressive as it has seemed. Also, according to their individual rankings he's fairly average at rushing the passer and well below average at stopping the run. For those looking for a comparison, Castillo's 2008 was ranked at 0.8 (or just a little above average) and Jamal Williams' 2008 was ranked at 27.4. 27.4! In 2007, Castillo was well above average at 7.7 when he was on the field.

Linebackers

Brandon Siler 5.8
Shaun Phillips 2.7
Kevin Burnett 2.6
Stephen Cooper -2.4
Tim Dobbins -2.7
Shawne Merriman -3.3
Larry English -12.2

I told you this stuff was interesting. As mentioned above, Cooper is killed by his missed tackles and by being below-average (-1.5) in pass coverage. Siler is actually the only LB that ranks as above average against the run and in pass coverage this year. Phillips would probably be #1 if it weren't for the 4 penalties he's picked up this season. This group is greatly improved from 2008, when no LB ranked as average or above average (Wilhelm was -16.9 if you were wondering).

Cornerbacks

Antoine Cason 1.4
Steve Gregory -1.0
Quentin Jammer -3.8
Antonio Cromartie -5.6

Jammer is actually playing better than he did in 2008, when his season ranking was -5.9. The stats seem a little off for cornerbacks in terms of what's "average", but at least they appear to be consistent. Cromartie's 2008 rating? -27.4. He was the anti-Jamal Williams.

Safties

Eric Weddle 3.7
Paul Oliver 0.5
Clinton Hart -1.8
Kevin Ellison -2.7

Before you start screaming about Hart being rated ahead of Ellison, listen up. Here's what I gather as the explanation by looking at the stats they're presenting. Both players are equal against the run (0.5), and the rookie actually better in pass coverage (-2.3 to -3.7), but the main two factors that catapult Hart above Ellison is penalties (zero for Hart, 2 for Ellison) and pass rushing (1.4 for Hart, 0.1 for Ellison). I can't entirely disagree with that, and considering these guys are charting the plays and I'm not....I'm going to believe them.

Still, it was the right move to get rid of Hart. Ellison is an improving player and Clinton was a declining one. Also, it has opened up plenty of playing time for Paul Oliver (who is obviously playing well).

So what do you guys think? Interesting stuff, right? Obviously, like all stats, these are not perfect. From what I can tell, these ratings do not factor in the level of competition being faced (which explains why Gregory would be higher than Jammer and Cromartie) nor do they factor in double-teams (which explains why Luis Castillo is down this year and why Shaun Phillips had such a poor rating in 2008). Still, in terms of judging who is making the most impact with their time on the field....it's intriguing.

Stats and rankings taken from ProFootballFocus.com do not include information from the Week 10 match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles.

via kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com Yes, that’s Shawne Merriman with the logo for something called P...

2009-11-16T20:48:10Z

via kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com

Yes, that’s Shawne Merriman with the logo for something called POWERADE ION4 shaved into the side of his head, because who wants Brent Celek to get away with being the biggest guerrilla marketing whore in the NFL?

Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers highlights. That first Eagles TD was entirely Cason's...

2009-11-16T13:16:11Z

Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers highlights.

That first Eagles TD was entirely Cason's fault. He left Maclin wide open to go cover the RB, and nearly collided with Weddle when he got there. I consider that a blown assignment by #20.

Bolts & Dolts: Eagles @ Chargers

2009-11-16T11:38:03Z

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates plows through Philadelphia Eagles' Asante Samuel, left, and Dimitri Patterson after catching one of his eight reception in the third quarter of the Chargers 31-23 victory during the a NFL football game Sunday Nov. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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When I got home from the Giants game last week (at about 10pm), I was still wearing my white LT jersey. As I mentioned last week, my jersey of choice is the powder-blue 17 but I had let my bodyguard/friend wear it during the game since it's much bigger and the 21 wouldn't have even fit him. Usually the 21 sits in the closet or my wife throws it on.

Anyways, I got home and, pumped off a dramatic and unlikely day, decided that the jersey was lucky. I declared that, until proven otherwise, the jersey was not to be washed and was going to be worn during all Chargers games. Based off of the jersey's performance yesterday (win vs. Eagles, loss for Broncos), I'd say it still has some good juju in it. An honorary Bolt goes to my lucky Tomlinson jersey for yesterday's victory.

Now, onto the real Bolts & Dolts....

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 20/25, 231 yds, 2 TDs. This may have been Philip's most efficient game all season. There was no inaccurate passes and even the 5 incomplete balls were either thrown out of bounds or catchable balls. He was feeling it yesterday and it's a big reason why the offense was able to put up 31 points.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 24 carries, 96 yds, 2 TDs. Welcome to the party, LT! A really strong game from him. The play call certainly helped. He was put behind the defense with draw plays when they were selling out, and the secondary couldn't focus on him because of their lack of talent at CB. It was a perfect scenario and LT came through in a big way. I wish he could've gotten over 100 yds, but I'm sure any game where he ends up with a 4.0 YPC is a good one in his book.

Antonio Gates - 7 catches, 78 yds. Think Antonio Gates worked on catching the ball after his 2 big drops last week? He was targeted 8 times and came up with the ball 7 of those times. The other time it was knocked away by a defender. This is a case of the coaching staff identifying a weakness (Eagles struggle covering TEs) and attacking it.

Legedu Naanee - 3 catches, 42 yds, 1 TD. I was worried about this. The Eagles had 2 good CBs to defend Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, but nobody after that. Most teams would say "okay, the slot WR is going to have a big game", but Naanee had been almost invisible in this offense since the early part of the season up until last week against the Giants. Hopefully, with two big weeks in a row, he's turned a corner and will be a weekly weapon for Rivers. We know his upside (speed, size, hands, strength) and he put it to use in getting the TD catch and also with a clutch catch to extend the Chargers final offensive drive.

Mike Tolbert - 2 catches, 25 yds, 1 TD. Tolbert is really turning into a hell of a FB, and the player we all hoped he would become when he came burst on the scene last season. Not only was his TD grab awesome (he looks like Sproles when he gets the ball in his hands!), but his run-blocking was near-perfect all night.

Defense

Kevin Burnett - 9 tackles, 1 tackle-for-loss, 1 QB hit, 1 defended pass. Welcome back in a big way, KB. I was wondering how Burnett would react when I saw the e-mail that said Brandon Siler was getting the start. To be fair, Burnett led the team in tackles mostly because the Eagles targeted the MLBs in zone with their WRs. However, when he wasn't chasing 150-pound WRs, Burnett was making goal-line stands and defending TEs on big plays. Just another good all-around game from the new guy. Let's hope he can stay healthy now.

Paul Oliver - 6 tackles, 1 sack. Dare I say it? I think the SS-by-committee approach is working. Oliver plays very well in coverage, but doesn't offer much in run support. Kevin Ellison is a beast in run-support, but doesn't offer much in the way of coverage. You'd think this would make it easy for the offense, but Ron Rivera has been pressing the right buttons at this spot and it's working. Against the Eagles' pass-happy offense, Oliver played significantly more than Ellison and played well. Next week, against the Broncos team that is struggling to pass the ball and may be missing their starting QB, he may not see much of the field.

Quentin Jammer - 6 tackles. Not Q's best game in terms of coverage, but to be fair DeSean Jackson is probably twice as fast as him. However, Jammer's tackling was a game-changer. Especially when it was him on Brent Celek, one-on-one and Jammer won the battle (this happened at least twice). Huge game for him and I just hope there's no residual effects from that hit on his leg by Weddle.

Special Teams

Mike Scifres - 4 punts, 50 yd average, 2 inside opp. 20. Scifres is slowly, but surely, working his way back up the punting charts after playing for a few weeks with a tweaked groin. He's 8th in punting average, 10th in net punting average and 10th in the number on punts that have landed inside the opponents' 20 yard line. A lot of people are quick to hold every game he has against the one he played in Indy last season, but that's really unfair. That was a once-in-a-lifetime game for a guy that is still putting on great punting displays week-in and week-out.

Dolts

Offense

Darren Sproles/Norv Turner - 2 carries, 14 rush yds, 4 catches, 31 rec yds. The reason this is Darren/Norv is because Darren's bad game is half Norv's fault. Look at Norv's playcall on 3rd & short for the entire game:

(Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to V.Jackson.
D.Sproles left end to SD 33 for no gain (M.Fokou).
D.Sproles right tackle to PHI 25 for no gain (Q.Mikell, W.Witherspoon). PENALTY on PHI-R.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 25 - No Play.
(Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to L.Naanee to PHI 15 for 18 yards (V.Harris, W.Witherspoon).

If you disregard the penalty that kept that drive alive, that's a 25% conversion rate on 3rd & short. There's not a single run by LT, Jacob Hester or Mike Tolbert in that situation. I understand Sproles is quick/strong enough that he can usually get that last yard, but only when it's a surprise and it just isn't anymore. It's time to start trusting LT on 3rd & short again.

Defense

Pass-Rush - 2 sacks, 4 QB hits. It took 4 quarters, but I understand what the defensive gameplan was. The Chargers prevented the Eagles from throwing deep (for the most part) and then locked down when they got near to goal line. The gameplan was to try FGs for TDs, and it worked. Because they were often playing zone, this meant a lot less CB and Safety blitzes than we've become accustomed to lately. This meant less creativity on the defensive side of the football. Essentially the Chargers were rushing 4 or 5 guys on every play, and just about everyone knew who was coming and from where. The couple of times things got creative, it worked (Oliver's sack, Gregory blowing up the double-reverse).

I'm not saying there should've been more blitzes. I agree with the gameplan. However, I think Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Larry English were pretty easily handled and I did not like to see that. I don't want to believe that the only reason those guys were having success was because of all of the blitzing from elsewhere. I'll instead choose to believe that Merriman and Phillips injuries were the culprit.

Steve Gregory - 4 tackles. A lot of people were afraid that this game would eventually come, and it did. Gregory has shown himself to be an excellent player within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He's great supporting the run, can stop the short pass and can even bump a WR when given the opportunity. He's tough. However, against the team like the Eagles that prefers to play downfield instead of near the line, he was exposed for his lack of footspeed. If you thought you saw more of Antoine Cason late in the game, you did.

SG will be fine. He'll continue to be an improvement over Cason in the short-passing game and in run support, so he'll keep his job for now. However, against a team like the Cowboys you'll probably see more of Cason covering downfield. This is just a matter of the coaches coaching according to their personnel.

Norv Turner now winningest Chargers coach ever. His .609 winning % nine points better than Sid...

2009-11-16T03:50:49Z

Norv Turner now winningest Chargers coach ever. His .609 winning % nine points better than Sid Gillman's. Just sayin'

Kevin Acee