Bolts From The Blue

San Diego Chargers: Managing Expectations of Melvin Ingram

2012-05-17T17:00:38Z

Well, we already addressed your ridiculous expectations of the Chargers' day 3 and day 2 picks, so that brings us to Melvin Ingram. The 18th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft has had some truly insane predictions made about his rookie campaign already. One observer has already projected an NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award for Ingram in his first year as a pro.

Round 1, Pick 18, Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

I shouldn't have to tell you this, but if you are expecting a rookie outside linebacker making the transition from defensive end and splitting time with an already established group of outside linebackers to come in and win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year you need to calm down. In the grand tradition of this blog, allow me to state unequivocally that I, Richard Wade, will eat my hat* if Melvin Ingram wins that award this coming season.

I've also seen some excited Chargers fans predicting a Defensive Rookie of the Year honor for Melvin Ingram. That's at least possible. It's terribly unlikely, though. Ingram will be part of a rotation with Jarret Johnson, Shaun Phillips and Antwan Barnes this season. This will suppress his playing time and make it difficult for him to put up the kind of numbers that catch the eye of voters even if he manages to play at a level that would be deserving of such recognition.

One of the names I've seen tossed around with regard to Ingram is that of Shawne Merriman. If you're expecting production like that, I'm sorry to say you'll be disappointed. Merriman was a much more talented pass rusher than Ingram is or likely ever will be and played in a Wade Phillips defense that tends to allow pass rushers to shine. We honestly have no idea what Pagano's defense will look like, but it's overly optimistic to think he'll be as good in his first year as a coordinator as Wade Phillips. If your benchmark for success is Merriman, Ingram's going to look like a failure.

Is all hope lost?** Of course not. Melvin Ingram is a great athlete and a very talented football player that can line up all over the field. Think of him like a faster Jarret Johnson*** with superior pass rushing skills at the expense of run stuffing. Then realize that Johnson is a tremendous player that provided nearly a decade of valuable production to the Baltimore Ravens. A lot of smart**** people projected Ingram as a top 10 pick because he has a lot of physical tools and a good motor. He should be successful in the NFL and could reasonably be expected to push Johnson and/or Phillips for playing time by the end of the season. But please don't raise expectations so high that a successful season looks like a failure.

Please feel free to agree or disagree***** in the comments.

*It's a green, fitted Tin Caps baseball cap.

**Yes, but that has no bearing on this discussion.

***In that he can be lined up all over the field.

****Debatable.

*****Disagreement is actually frowned upon.

San Diego Chargers Daily Links: May 17, 2012

2012-05-17T12:00:49Z

PFF Mailbag: The PFF 101 of 2011 Edition - Pro Football Focus
Both had their inconsistencies, both had head-scratching moments, but Rivers got closer to his absolute best for long stretches while Romo didn’t. After some shocking mistakes early in the season to cost the Cowboys what proved to be crucial victories, he cut out a lot of the errors but that came at the expense of elevating his team to a higher level. Those at the bottom of the list, Rivers and Cam Newton, showed the ability in 2011 to elevate their team with their play while Romo didn’t.

Chargers offense has key area to improve - Michael Gehlken
"If anyone is trying to figure out our offense, there's one area where we need to show drastic improvement," coach Norv Turner said. "It's not red-zone offense. We were 10th and started slow. It's not time of possession. We've got to protect the ball better."

Seau's restaurant shuts down - Lori Weisberg
A little less than two months shy of its 16th anniversary, Seau's the Restaurant in Mission Valley shut down Wednesday, announced trustees for Junior Seau's estate

Charger talks childhood, strikes chord - Michael Gehlken
"I was watching him, and I was like, 'Man, this guy puts the ball on the money every time,'" Royal said. "It was so catchable. It was like a pillow being tossed out there. I thought, 'Those guys are lucky to play with such a great quarterback.' I was thinking that while we were playing them.

Poll results: Leinart top backup QB - Bill Williamson
According to the fine folks who took our AFC West poll this week, new Oakland backup quarterback Matt Leinart is the best backup in the AFC West.

Fantasy: Dynasty Running Backs Heat Index - Chad Parsons
After a near 50/50 split with Mike Tolbert in 2011, Ryan Mathews will be the unquestioned starter heading into 2012. He has always been efficient (+10.8 rating, 0.47 FP/SN) on a less than full load. The biggest question for the PPG stud is if he can stay healthy.

Dinosaur Comics - May 15th, 2012 - Ryan North
if you really like someone, your friends might say you should take a shot at them. you know, like hunters take a shot at the animals they want to kill and then consume with their families

BFTB After Dark: May 16, 2012

2012-05-17T00:00:25Z

I know what you're thinking. "Where have the video posts gone?" "Why is BFTB so dead these days?" Well, in case you haven't noticed, most of the blogging that happens here and most the videos that were made were reactionary. Something happens, we break it down. Sometimes you get to see my face.

This part of the year is a bit of a deadzone for the NFL. The rookies did their camp and are at home studying their playbooks. The vets are staying in shape. The rosters aren't changing much (although the Chargers did release a Tackle I've never heard of today). There's not much to react to.

Enjoy the quiet. Relax a bit. Watch the NBA or NHL Playoffs. Read up on the potential new owners of the San Diego Padres, or root for whatever baseball team you like best. We'll be churning out posts like their donuts at a Krispy Kreme soon. Until then, we'll try our best to keep the noises we make to a minimum or at least make them interesting. Deal?

Today's Posts:

Empire Records-Sugar High (via Random1x)

San Diego Chargers Positional Analysis: Tight Ends

2012-05-16T18:00:03Z

Losses: None

Additions: Ladarius Green, Dante Rosario

Returning: Antonio Gates, Randy McMichael, Kory Sperry

Projected Starters: Antonio Gates

Strengths:

Experience: Gates is a 10 year veteran. McMichael is an 11 year veteran with 2 years in the Chargers system.
Level of play: Gates is a perennial Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer.
Depth: In addition to the two experienced veterans Green is a very promising draft pick. Also, Rosario has been around the block and Sperry has been in the Chargers system for a couple years.
Upside: Green is promising enough that he potentially could make an impact on offense as a rookie part time player.

Weaknesses:

Health: This is all about Antonio Gates. Injuries have made him both miss games and play less effectively in recent years.
Downside: This goes hand-in-hand with Gates' health. If he misses games you start to worry about McMichael's age and Green's youth. There are certainly decent options to turn to (as noted when depth was listed as a strength), but you could make the case that any and all could be busts in 2012.

San Diego Chargers Daily Links: May 16, 2012

2012-05-16T12:01:08Z

Pressure point: Chargers - Bill Williamson
Arguably, no one in the AFC West faces more pressure than Turner this season. Every time the Chargers lose a game, Turner will be reminded of his tenuous job security. Every time one of his players makes a mistake, folks will wonder what Turner could have done to prevent it.

Fantasy: Projecting Running Back Yards-Per-Carry and Other Statistics - Jonathan Bales
4. Ryan Mathews: 280 carries for 1,274 yards (4.55)

McClain looks for rebirth in SD - Christopher Smith
"It’s a blessing. Just to hear from him the first day I met with him, him saying, ‘We want to use you more than just that ramming fullback,’ that brought a smile on my face," McClain said. "It felt good to be wanted. Now I have time to map it out a little and find a place to stay around here. I just got in here real smooth this time."

New Chargers stadium? Delay of game! - Matthew T. Hall
Mayor Jerry Sanders still has seven months in office, but he’s only running out the clock on the issue. He talked a good game for two and a half years, but now he’s doing what the last mayor did: making it the next mayor’s problem.

Blogger Blitz: The dotted line - ESPN.com
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson talks about the impact that the new CBA is having on rookie signings.

Managing Expectations of Day 2 Draft Picks - Richard Wade
Don't give up, though, Charger fans. Both day 2 picks have a very good opportunity to contribute this year. In fact, it's likely that they'll contribute, but you should be surprised if they both end up starting or if either of them is an "impact player."

Tommie Harris working to build schools in the Sudan in memory of his late wife - Maggie Hendricks
Harris wants the school to serve girls who have been abused or enslaved by Joseph Kony and the Lord's Resistance Army. He will name it the Ashley Harris Sunshine School, and he hopes to build many more across the continent.

BFTB After Dark: May 15, 2012

2012-05-16T00:00:24Z

The other day, I was thinking about all the hype that Melvin Ingram has been getting from the sports media. He's essentially been dubbed "The next Von Miller" and producing anything less than what Miller did in 2012 (which was amazing for a rookie) will probably be viewed as a disappointment for some.

"The only thing he's missing is the big hipster glasses that probably don't have lenses in them, which totally appeals to white people and lets them know that he's not a thug at all," I thought to myself. Welp, look who has a new Twitter avatar. Good job, Melvin.

By the way, we're on the lookout for a freelance Photoshopper/MS Paint expert to fill an unpaid position that involves nothing but producing drawings of Melvin Ingram living his life with freakishly short arms. Show him unsuccessfully trying to brush his teeth, or trying to give someone a high five.....you get the picture. Applications should be submitted in the comment section.

Today's Posts:

Otis Redding - Try A Little Tenderness (via nusakara)

San Diego Chargers: Managing Expectations of Day 2 Draft Picks

2012-05-15T21:39:53Z

Much like we discussed last time, while reviewing the Chargers' day 3 picks, optimism isn't necessarily a bad thing and in some cases it is definitely warranted. However, it's important that fans take a step back from the best case scenario and embrace the likelihood of lesser outcomes. That doesn't necessarily mean that these players will be bad or even average players, but it's almost certainly for the best if you don't expect every draft pick to be a day 1 starter and All Pro because then you're going to be disappointed when that player has a pretty good season as part of a rotation. Don't do that to yourself.

Round 3, Pick 73, Brandon Taylor, LSU

Out of all the Chargers' draft picks, perhaps none of the projections are more unrealistic than the ones made of Taylor. The transition from safety in college to safety in the NFL is one of the more difficult ones. Also, Taylor was the fourth safety drafted out of what was widely considered to be a weak safety class. This isn't to say that Taylor won't be able to unseat Atari Bigby as the starter. He very well could. However, he could also end up playing special teams and getting only limited snaps on defense.

By most accounts, Taylor is a good player that could blossom into a leader. However, I can't stress enough how difficult the transition to the NFL is for a safety. For example, Eric Weddle is an All Pro, but he finished his rookie season with a negative grade from Pro Football Focus. There will be an adjustment period for Taylor and you shouldn't write him off because of it. Even if he's going to end up being as good as many fans are hoping (and unfortunately expecting) there's a pretty solid chance he won't be half that good this year. Honestly, if he's able to beat out Bigby to become the starter that should be considered a successful rookie campaign.

Round 2, Pick 49, Kendall Reyes, Connecticut

Kendall Reyes is a solid if unspectacular football player. He's transitioning from a 3 technique to a 5 technique (in the base defense at least) and will be part of a healthy rotation at defensive end. People are high on him because he was projected to go earlier by many of the draft experts than he did. He has a very good chance to be a successful player at this level, but he's probably never going to be a star or "impact player." There's almost zero chance whatsoever that he'll be one in his rookie year. Corey Liuget was a more highly rated prospect than Reyes is and he was almost a complete non-factor in his first season. Granted, part of that is due to how he was used (overused with his weaknesses magnified), but generally guys don't make a smooth transition from 4-3 DT to 3-4 DE.

Don't give up, though, Charger fans. Both day 2 picks have a very good opportunity to contribute this year. In fact, it's likely that they'll contribute, but you should be surprised if they both end up starting or if either of them is an "impact player."

ESPN: San Diego Chargers Need Defensive Line Help

2012-05-15T20:09:48Z

ESPN has listed off each team's "biggest needs" following the 2012 NFL Draft and Free Agency. For the San Diego Chargers, it's good news and bad news. The good news is that, in picking the defensive line, it proves the Chargers roster is strong at every position. The bad news is that they might be right about the defensive line.

Here's the ESPN Insider article I'm talking about, and here's a chunk of what was written by Tom Gower:

If Liuget shows off the skills that made him a first-rounder, Castillo plays to his pre-injury form and Reyes has a better rookie year than Liuget did, this could be a much-improved group. However, that is an awful lot of ifs.

Let's tackle these statements one at a time.

"If Liuget shows off the skills that made him a first-rounder" - There's no reason to think that Corey Liuget won't have a fine 2nd season. One of the main reasons Greg Manusky was fired was his mishandling of Liuget's skills. Liuget got better as the season went along (According to ProFootballFocus, 4 of Liuget's 5 best games came in the last 6 weeks of the season). Most 3-4 defensive linemen don't start producing until their 2nd season. Everything points to this "if" happening.
"Castillo plays to his pre-injury form" - Again, I don't know why Luis Castillo wouldn't be able to handle this. He returned from major injuries in 2006 and 2007 to be a very good player from 2008-2010 (averaging 15 games played per season). Despite the fact that he's seemingly been with the Chargers forever, don't forget that Castillo is just 28 years old and will be 29 by time the season starts. There should be plenty of gas left in his tank.
"Reyes has a better rookie year than Liuget did" - This one seems the silliest to me. Corey Liuget was by no means a bad player in 2011. Gower says that Corey "rarely made an impact" and that the team had hoped for more from their rookie DE last year. I'll agree with that, but Kendall Reyes isn't expected to start and therefore would probably make the team happy if he could produce consistently like Liuget did last year. The team isn't going to pin their hopes on their 4th best DE being an impact player in his rookie season, nor do think they need him to.

Now, all of that being said....Gower is still sort of right. If Liuget, Castillo and Reyes were to play poorly, the defensive line would suffer. They're key parts of John Pagano's plan to stop the run and push the pocket. However, expecting anything less from Liuget and Castillo than what they've been able to do in the past seems awfully pessimistic.