Brew Crew Ball: Front Page Posts

NLCS Game 5 Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:30:04 -0000

Cole Hamels will try to continue his masterful postseason by shutting down the Dodgers one more time. Against him is Chad Billingsley, another fantastic young pitcher, but a guy who couldn't stop the Phils offense in Game 2.

Game time is 7:22 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go...Rays?

Projecting Jason Kendall

Jeff Sackmann — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:08:09 -0000

Last night, I was looking at a graphical representation of Mike Rivera's game log. (Can't link it, sorry, but you can look at the BR version, here.) It's just bizarre that he spent the entire season with the team--healthy, as far as I know--and started less than 10% of the team's games.

All this thanks to Jason Kendall's durability and...game-calling ability, apparently. It certainly isn't because of anything Kendall brought to the lineup, except for maybe contact skills. (Contact in the form of groundouts, of course.)

Anyway, here's what Kendall's trends have looked like over the last four years. (Again, if you're new to this stuff, read the intro to the JJ Hardy article.)

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
200409	0.261	0.338	0.333	0.670
200504	0.269	0.346	0.340	0.685
200505	0.268	0.344	0.338	0.681
200506	0.271	0.348	0.339	0.685
200507	0.272	0.349	0.340	0.688
200508	0.269	0.345	0.333	0.676
200509	0.270	0.346	0.335	0.679
200604	0.276	0.353	0.342	0.693
200605	0.277	0.355	0.344	0.697
200606	0.277	0.352	0.341	0.691
200607	0.276	0.352	0.339	0.689
200608	0.279	0.352	0.341	0.691
200609	0.279	0.353	0.339	0.690
200704	0.269	0.341	0.325	0.664
200705	0.267	0.338	0.321	0.657
200706	0.268	0.336	0.325	0.659
200707	0.268	0.336	0.325	0.659
200708	0.270	0.339	0.330	0.667
200709	0.268	0.338	0.327	0.662
200804	0.262	0.330	0.324	0.651
200805	0.258	0.327	0.320	0.645
200806	0.259	0.328	0.321	0.647
200807	0.254	0.324	0.316	0.638
200808	0.253	0.323	0.314	0.635
200809	0.251	0.322	0.313	0.633

That's just not pretty. What surprises me a bit is that, aside from a slight uptick in mid-07, Kendall has been sliding downward for almost three years straight. His April was kind of exciting for us, but MINER sees right through all those groundball hits.

For reference, the NL average catcher has a line of 255/328/387, for an OPS of 715, 65 points higher than Kendall's 08 season. (Once you adjust these neutral projections for the NL, the projection is also in the 640-650 range.)

There's only so much room for improvement at catcher--short of trading for or developing a real weapon like Mauer, Martin, or Soto, you're left with guys like Kendall and Torrealba on the free-agent market every year. But for the sake of illustration, the simple runs created formula suggests that Cubs catchers generated 102 offensive runs, while Brewers catchers were worth 65. That's almost four wins, just at one position.

Maybe Kendall's experience and the pitchers' comfort level with him is worth three or four wins. But I doubt it.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 14:10:02 -0000

Here are a handful of things to read if you're bored with critiquing playoff commercials.

In Arizona: Alexandre Periard was the only Brewer prospect to appear, pitching an inning of scoreless relief with a hit, a walk and a K as the Javelinas fell for the fourth straight day, 5-4 to Phoenix. Box Score

The Javelinas play Mesa today at 2:35. Lou Palmisano is still on loan to the Solar Sox, so it's possible both Angel Salome and Lou Palmisano could both play today. Also, Jeremy Jeffress last pitched on the 9th, so today could be his day.

If you need something to read between now and then, here's the latest installment in Taylor Green's blog from the AFL.

In Hawaii: The CaneFires were rained out yesterday. They play Honolulu at 8 pm Central tonight.

In Mexico: Chris Narveson made his debut and pitched 4.2 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and striking out 8 in Hermosillo's 7-4 loss to Guasave. On the other side, Erasmo Ramirez pitched 2/3 of an inning for Guasave, gave up two hits and was credited with a blown save. Box Score

Almost all the Brewer news today is prospect related:

Tom H. notes (and republishes) a profile on Jeremy Jeffress in Baseball America.
The Hardball Times analyzes the delivery of Brewer 2008 2nd round pick Seth Lintz.
Baseball America ranks teams by their 2008 draft expenditures. The Brewers spent a shade under $8.4 million, the sixth most in all of baseball. They also had a lot of early picks.

In other news, if you were still thinking about getting a general admission ticket for the Brewers Winter Warm Up event in January (as I was), you waited too long. Tickets are still available if you want to shell out $500 for a VIP pass, though.

So apparently Jake Peavy has released a list of cities where he'd be willing to play in 2009. He's only interested in playing in the NL, and only for teams with a solid tradition of winning. The places he's reportedly willing to go are Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and St. Louis. I guess the "solid tradition of winning" part wasn't as important as they made it seem.

Also, we have a new medical procedure of the moment: nerve relocation surgery. Albert Pujols had it this week, and at least six other current and former big leaguers have had it since 2002, with at least a handful of others considering it this offseason. Click the link for a full description (with pictures) of the problem and the solution.

Ken Griffey Jr. is old school, though, so he's sticking with the tried-and-true method and having knee surgery instead. This would seem to raise the possibility that the White Sox will decline his option for 2009, creating the possibility that the Mariners could have both the return of Ken Griffey and MLB's first female GM in 2009. That's about as much positive publicity as you can get during the offseason without actually improving your odds of winning.

The Nationals had a problem this season that might seem familiar. Their position players seemed to constantly come down with injuries that were deemed "day-to-day" before being rediagnosed as something more serious. Yesterday, their medical director resigned. There's likely an opening on the Brewers' staff for him.

We're less than two months away from the Rule 5 Draft, scheduled for December 11 at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. Baseball Analysts has a review of the Draft in 2007-Play in 2008 draft. Still wondering if anyone has a list of Brewer players who will be eligible.

Oh, and the Rays have proven once and for all that long ball is better than small ball.

Drink up.

ALCS Game 4 Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 22:30:04 -0000

As we saw yesterday in the NLCS, Game 4's are always interesting. Few teams have solid rotations that deep (present company, um, uh, included), so after three games of Dice-K's, Becketts, and Garzas, we get a matchup of Tim Wakefield and Andy Sonnanstine.

Interestingly though, it could turn out to be a pitcher's duel. Sonnastine blanked the Sox both times he faced them in September, and you never know how good Wakefield can be on any given day.

Game time is 7:07 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Rays!

Projecting Prince Fielder

Jeff Sackmann — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 18:34:40 -0000

Let's get back to work on some month-by-month hitter projections and turn to the big man.

For some background on what these are and what they mean, read the introduction to the JJ Hardy article from last week.

One thing I haven't mentioned (I just plain forgot) is that these numbers are neutral. That is, they aren't adjusted for league or park. The advantage is that we don't have to think as hard if we're looking at free agents, or if a player is traded...but we do have a think a bit, since the NL is easier than the AL, and Miller is a teeny bit hitter-friendly. So if you add 10 or 15 OPS points to account for all that, it's about right.

So here we go with Prince's numbers:

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
200506	0.266	0.337	0.420	0.755
200507	0.266	0.337	0.419	0.754
200508	0.266	0.337	0.423	0.759
200509	0.264	0.338	0.444	0.780
200604	0.270	0.343	0.454	0.795
200605	0.272	0.343	0.462	0.803
200606	0.272	0.343	0.471	0.812
200607	0.273	0.345	0.467	0.809
200608	0.273	0.348	0.469	0.815
200609	0.273	0.351	0.472	0.820
200704	0.276	0.354	0.484	0.836
200705	0.283	0.362	0.512	0.872
200706	0.284	0.366	0.521	0.884
200707	0.284	0.367	0.519	0.884
200708	0.286	0.372	0.530	0.900
200709	0.290	0.380	0.543	0.921
200804	0.289	0.382	0.545	0.924
200805	0.291	0.381	0.539	0.918
200806	0.289	0.380	0.541	0.918
200807	0.288	0.381	0.539	0.917
200808	0.285	0.380	0.534	0.911
200809	0.288	0.381	0.539	0.917

I'm starting to feel like a broken record here, but Fielder ends up being similar to Hart and Hardy in one regard. Over the course of the season, we get really invested in their ups and downs, but a slump--even a month-long one--just doesn't have much impact on a measured projection.

In Fielder's case, the sensible among us figured he probably wasn't going to put up another 50 HR, .618 SLG season, especially since those numbers were so much higher than the previous season's. Not that he couldn't have, of course, but the odds were against it.

That doesn't mean the 2007 campaign didn't mean anything--it drastically improved his prospects for the upcoming season. The end-of-season MINER projection was a little optimistic, but not horribly so. And because his '08 performance was in the ballpark (and MINER assumes he'll get better for another few years), we can make a similar prediction about next year.

As with Corey Hart, his 2007 season made it easy to dream big--really big, in this case--and made it harder to appreciate his performance for what it was. Prince Fielder may not be Prince Albert, but marking down a 920ish OPS (935ish in the NL for Milwaukee) is a nice situation to be in.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:15:59 -0000

Even if the Brewers lost 162 games next year, even if I lost everything and my fiancee left me and Gorman peed in my bed everyday, I would still take pride in not being a competitive eater.

In Arizona: Taylor Green went 1-for-2 with a double and a walk, Lorenzo Cain went 1-for-3 with a stolen base and scored a run in his AFL debut, and David Welch pitched a scoreless inning with 2 K's as the Javelinas fell to Phoenix, 3-2. Box Score The Javelinas have lost 3 straight, but are still tied for the lead in the AFL National Division.

In Mexico: No Brewers played yesterday, and the Algodoneros were no-hit by Guasave, 2-0. Coincidence? Perhaps not. Box Score

Also, Battlekow has a roundup of Brewers stats from the first two weeks of winter league action.

The Javelinas host Phoenix today at 2:35 Central time, West Oahu hosts Honolulu at 8, and Guasave travels to Hermosillo at 8:30.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Doug Melvin has flown to Arizona to meet with Dale Sveum to discuss removing one of two tags from his title: either the "interim" one or the "manager" one. Chuckie Hacks wondered aloud if managers matter. He also notes that Bobby Valentine might be interested in the Brewers' job.

If you surf the web, the Brewers have your email address or an employee of the organization knows where you hid the spare key for your house, you've probably seen the open letter Mark A. sent out to fans. Nothing earth-shattering here, but it's a slow news day. Even the West Oahu CaneFires had the day off.

Maybe CC Sabathia won't be the highest-paid free agent this offseason after all. Rowland's Office says Mark Teixiera is seeking 10 years and $200 million. They call him "Poor man's A-Rod." Apparently making $52 million less than A-Rod makes you poor.

Albert Pujols had elbow surgery yesterday, but not the Tommy John surgery he reportedly needed. The words used here included "decompression" and "transposition," but not "reconstruction" or "removal." No word on whether or not they brought in Carlos Villanueva to "wake the sleeping giant" when it was over.

On the coaching carousel: Former Brewer Kevin Seitzer is the new hitting coach in Kansas City. Click the link for a story about how he helped legendary Brewer underachiever Dave Krynzel with his swing without even watching. The Royals also hired former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons to be their bench coach.

Say what you will about the MLB playoff system, but at least it's not confusing. I'm pretty sure no one would have a clue what's going on if MLB adopted the Japanese model.

It's quickly becoming the job no one wants: Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer is the fifth candidate to remove himself from consideration for the Mariners' GM position.

What do Hack Wilson, Hal Chase, Red Faber and Enrique Cruz all have in common? They were all Rule 5 Draft Picks. The first three turned out ok.

Oh, and you don't wear the pantyhose, the pantyhose wears you.

Drink up.

Postseason Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 22:52:31 -0000

You may not know this, but they played baseball on the decks of the Santa Maria.

ALCS Game 3 starts us off at 3:37 CT. (Yet, somehow, it didn't occur to me to post the thread *before* that. Hm.) Lester and Garza opened the game; Garza is still in there, while the Rays have battered Lester and the Sox bullpen has taken over in the sixth.

NLCS Game 4 will get going at 7:22 CT--it's Joe Blanton against Derek Lowe.

Go Rays!

Minor League Notes: Winter League Week Two

battlekow — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:00:37 -0000

This was the first week of play for the Arizona Fall League and the second for Hawaii Winter Baseball.

Peoria Javelinas (AFL):

Omar Aguilar, RRP: 2 G, 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jeremy Jeffress, RSP: 1 G, 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Alex Periard, RSP: 1 G, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
David Welch, LSP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Brae Wright, LSP: 2 G, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Angel Salome, C: .000/.200/.000 (5 PA)
Taylor Green, 3B: .375/.375/.500 (8 PA)
Lorenzo Cain, OF: yet to play

West Oahu CaneFires (HWB):

Chris Cody, LSP
- Last week: 2 G, 8.3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
- Overall: 4 G, 13.3 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 14 K
Mike Ramlow, RRP
- Last week: 1 G, 3.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
- Overall: 4 G, 9.0 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Caleb Gindl, OF
- Last Week: .125/.176/.125 (17 PA)
- Overall: .200/.289/.325 (45 PA)
Logan Schafer, OF
- Last Week: .063/.118/.189 (17 PA)
- Overall: .171/.286/.257 (41 PA)

Mark Attanasio to the Fans

Lavender — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:35:52 -0000

Mark Attanasio to the Fans

My opinions, great letter. Sort of reminds me how hard it is to go from baseball mode to any other sport still. This season was such a trip.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:33:50 -0000

Tracking Winter League baseball is quickly becoming the hardest part of this gig. But I couldn't make myself take a day off, because my calendar says it's Health & Sports Day in Japan.

In Arizona: Taylor Green went 1-for-4 with 2 strikeouts in the Javelina's 7-5 loss to the Saguaros on Friday. Box Score

Then, on Saturday, Brae Wright pitched a scoreless inning while giving up two walks and a hit (Hold, 2), and Omar Aguilar pitched a scoreless inning around a hit and a walk, but the Javelinas lost to the Saguaros again, 5-2.

Elsewhere in Arizona, Lou Palmisano, on loan to the Mesa Solar Sox until the Phillies' season is over, went 1-for-3 with a double in Mesa's 2-1 loss to Surprise.

The AFL was off yesterday, presumably so everyone could watch football.

In Hawaii: Logan Schafer and Caleb Gindl both went 0-for-4 Friday, and Mike Ramlow struck out three and gave up 3 hits in 3 innings of scoreless relief as the CaneFires fell to Waikiki, 2-1. Box Score

Saturday, no Brewers played and Waikiki dominated the CaneFires, 13-3. Box Score

Sunday, Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer went 0-for-4 each again, but Chris Cody allowed just one run on one hit and one walk over five innings as the CaneFires tied Waikiki 1-1 in 10 innings.

In the Mexican Pacific League: Erasmo Ramirez made his winter ball debut last night, giving up two runs on three hits and two strikeouts in just one inning of work, as the Algodoneros de Guasave (Guasave Cottongrowers) defeated Mochis, 11-3. Box Score

Today, the Javelinas play at Phoenix at 2:35 Central time, the Algodoneros play in Mochis at 6 pm Central, and the CaneFires are off.

Possibly the highest-profile Brewer still playing, 2008 first round pick Brett Lawrie is profiled over at The Official Site as he works to transition from Team Canada to instructional league.

Of course, one other player who spent time in the Brewers organization is still active: Gabe Gross. The Brewers probably could have used Gross down the stretch, but no worries, they got Josh Butler for him, and he scorched his way to a 5.36 ERA with a WHIP over 1.5 in Brevard County.

View From Bernie's Chalet has an offseason to-do list for the Brewers, including his thoughts on Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy.

Speaking of Sheets, The Hardball Times estimates he'll get either four or five years and between $55 and $65 million as a free agent.

And speaking of Sabathia, here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord: John Shea of the SF Gate gives the Brewers a 10-to-1 shot at retaining him. That's better than the 100-1 odds posted last week. John Brattain of Baseball Digest Daily says the Players Union may play a role in deciding where Sabathia will pitch next season.

And speaking of Hardy, Baseball by Paul ranked him as the eighth best shortstop for 2009.

It should come as no surprise that Joe Maddon won Beyond the Box Score's AL Manager of the Year award. What is surprising, however, is Ned Yost's appearance on four NL ballots, tying him for fifth place. Dale Sveum also appeared on two ballots and took ninth.

Every now and then TheJay notices something I would never have seen. Today, for example, he notes that Carlos Villanueva is one of just 12 pitchers since 2000 to wear a uniform number lower than 13.

Todd Coffey, on the other hand, was the only Brewer to walk into a railing while staring down Jeff Brantley.

On the hot stove: The Giants added three pitchers to the market over the weekend, removing Tyler Walker, Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey from their 40-man roster.

This Philly.com story about the interesting paths some Phillies took to the majors is an interesting read. It made me wonder how many near-misses are out there. Could there be 10, 20 or more Jamie Moyers out there who never got a chance? (h/t Baseball Musings)

Should Ron Santo be in the Hall of Fame? Don Ehrke of Dugout Central makes the case against him.

Oh, and even the lobsters are catching Rays Fever in Tampa. Not the Rally Lobster, though.

Drink up.

NLCS Game 3 Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 23:00:04 -0000

We move over to Dodger stadium for a contest featuring Hideki Kuroda and Jamie Moyer. Game time is 7:22 CT.

Go Rays!

ALCS Game 2 Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:00:04 -0000

Josh Beckett vs. Scott Kazmir. It's captain postseason against the guy who was almost worth Victor Zambrano.

Game time is 7:07 CT.

Go Rays!

Postseason Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:00:05 -0000

This afternoon, we've got Game 2 of the NLCS, featuring Chad Billingsley and Brett Myers. I would like to see Myers shut down the Dodgers, if only so the Brewers look a little less pathetic in retrospect. That game starts at 3:35 CT.

Tonight, the ALCS opens with a matchup between Dice-K and James Shields. Game time is 7:37 CT.

Go Rays!

Projecting Craig Counsell

Jeff Sackmann — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:30:04 -0000

Continuing our tour of the Brewers monthly MINER projections...let's look at Craig Counsell. For more on MINERs and what the hell I'm talking about, read the Projecting JJ Hardy article.

(The site gets more traffic on weekdays, so I'm putting a bench guy on a lazy Friday afternoon.)

Since Craig has had a long career, I'm not going to bother with monthly projections back more than a decade. Instead, here's an end-of-season projection for Craig going back to 1995:

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
199509	0.256	0.318	0.358	0.677
199609	0.258	0.328	0.361	0.689
199709	0.268	0.335	0.380	0.717
199809	0.271	0.347	0.393	0.745
199909	0.267	0.343	0.382	0.730
200009	0.257	0.330	0.366	0.701
200109	0.233	0.314	0.330	0.648
200209	0.212	0.290	0.281	0.571
200309	0.218	0.298	0.289	0.586
200409	0.231	0.312	0.301	0.615
200509	0.240	0.324	0.325	0.650
200609	0.246	0.327	0.336	0.664
200709	0.241	0.325	0.332	0.657
200809	0.236	0.328	0.327	0.653

I'm not quite sure why MINER would've been so bearish on Craig in 2002-03, since his numbers the previous few years weren't notably bad. Regardless of why that is, it's clear that Counsell has settled in at a very predictable skill level.

Let's take a closer look at the last three years:

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
200604	0.248	0.332	0.340	0.672
200605	0.250	0.330	0.339	0.669
200606	0.248	0.326	0.337	0.663
200607	0.249	0.328	0.339	0.667
200608	0.248	0.327	0.337	0.664
200609	0.246	0.327	0.336	0.664
200704	0.246	0.326	0.341	0.667
200705	0.244	0.327	0.336	0.664
200706	0.245	0.328	0.339	0.666
200707	0.245	0.330	0.339	0.668
200708	0.242	0.326	0.334	0.660
200709	0.241	0.325	0.332	0.657
200804	0.241	0.322	0.337	0.658
200805	0.237	0.321	0.333	0.653
200806	0.239	0.323	0.336	0.658
200807	0.238	0.323	0.333	0.654
200808	0.238	0.323	0.330	0.651
200809	0.236	0.328	0.327	0.653

Unfortunately, CC's days of threatening the elusive 340 slugging mark are behind him. Still, it's remarkable just how consistent that OBP is. Patience is most likely the skill that sticks around the longest, so given Craig has kept taking his walks through age 38, I wouldn't worry that he's going to stop doing so right through age 39.

I'll admit, this isn't nearly as interesting when you're looking at a steady veteran rather than a streaky youngster like JJ or Corey. These numbers do make the point that while Craig has gotten predictably less powerful as he ages, he's still the same player we signed a couple of years ago.

The average big-league shortstop OPS's about 740; I'd guess that average big-league shortstop who can really defend his position (i.e., the field without Hanley) is more like 700. Craig isn't in that territory, but 650 + great defense at every infield position is a lot better than what many teams will get from their bench.

Is that worth $3.4MM? I don't know, but I suspect we're going to find out first-hand.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 13:56:26 -0000

So Google Reader tracks my reading habits. Here's a chart showing my reading habits by time of day for the last 30 days:

Can you tell when I write the Mug?

In Arizona: Taylor Green went 2-for-4 with a double and a stolen base in his AFL debut, Jeremy Jeffress gave up 1 run on 2 hits in 3 innings to pick up the victory, and Alexandre Periard pitched two scoreless innings of relief as the Javelinas defeated Phoenix 6-4. Box Score

In Hawai'i: Caleb Gindl went 1-for-4 and scored a run, and Logan Schafer went 0-for-4 but picked up an RBI in the CaneFires' 5-4 loss to North Shore. Box Score

Also, we apparently have a Brewer prospect to watch on two AFL teams now, as Lou Palmisano went 1-for-4 with 2 K's in his debut Wednesday for the Mesa Solar Sox.

It's the Battle of Peoria as the Peoria Saguaros host the Javelinas today at 2:35 Central time, and if you're up late tonight, the CaneFires host Waikiki at 12:35 am.

So yesterday I posted the JS's team grades for the Brewers. Today, we have the individual report cards. One has to imagine Rickie Weeks is risking getting his allowance revoked by bringing home a D-plus. Also, the Brew Town Beat has grades for the bullpen.

So the Mariners GM search continues, but still has no mention of Jack Z. Today, though, a possibility I hadn't considered is mentioned in the blogs: Mariners Insider is listing Doug Melvin as a possible candidate for M's GM, if he should decide to turn down a contract extension in Milwaukee. Mariners.com is reporting that the next GM will have less power and a lower payroll than former GM Bill Bavasi had, so it seems unlikely Melvin would want to make the jump. (h/t Baseball Digest Daily for the second link)

Once the dust has settled on the general manager situation, a decision is expected on interim manager Dale Sveum. Add Terry Francona to the list of people who have endorsed Sveum's return.

And, if you missed the entire season and Tom H.'s season recap yesterday, today you can read The Official Site's recap.

Via Seamheads, Forbes reports that the Brewers made $158 million in revenue this season, and the franchise is now worth $331 million. There's always some debate about the validity of Forbes' numbers, and conversations about what they do and don't take into account, but if they found $158 million in revenue in Milwaukee, my guess is they found just about everything.

MLB Trade Rumors lists Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy among twelve 20+ HR hitters who could be available via trade. I'd be disappointed to see either go, but for the right price anyone could be available.

Apparently coaches are also available, especially recently re-assigned coaches: Rumor has it Ted Simmons has been targeted to serve as bench coach in San Diego next season.

I've been trying to track players who become free agents whether it's big news or small, but apparently I missed a couple: MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Astros RP Dave Borkowski and former Pirate, Astro and Giant IF Jose Castillo.

I still haven't seen a list of Brewers eligible to be Rule 5 Drafted, but while perusing the web this morning I found this Royals Review list of eligible draftees that includes one familiar name: Jose Capellan. Capellan seems like the perfect target for the draft: an inconsistent former big-leaguer with good stuff and a high ceiling. It's feasible he could help a team out of the bullpen in 2009, and if you draft him and he can't, you can send him back and all the experiment cost you is $25k, or about .25% of what a similar experiment on Eric Gagne cost the Brewers this season.

Voting is open for The Internet Baseball Awards. I'm hoping to find time to work on my ballot today.

Oh, and Dick Vitale is among 12 original Rays season ticket holders that will get to throw out first pitches during the ALCS.

Drink up.

NLCS Game 1 Open Thread

Jeff Sackmann — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:00:06 -0000

It's Cole Hamels vs. Derek Lowe.

I'm torn about this one. Do we root for the Dodgers, the team that knocked off the Cubs? The Phillies, who don't have Manny? The Phillies, because if they win the World Series, we can jokingly claim to have been the second-best team in the postseason?

Eh...I'm rooting for the Rays.

Game time is 7:22 CT.

Projecting Corey Hart

Jeff Sackmann — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 18:30:05 -0000

Over the next two or three weeks, I plan on posting one of these for most members of the Brewers. I might also throw in some interesting free agents and trade targets once we get into the offseason.

For background on these projections, read the intro to the JJ Hardy article. In short: These are projections using data up to and including each month in the player's major league career.

Corey's an interesting case. 2007 was a real breakthrough season, and he tempted us into thinking he was a superstar in the making. In a bizarre tale of two halves, he ended up below league-average offensively, with a 268/300/459 line. As you might expect, the second half--especially September--knocks down his projection, but not as much our gut might suggest.

Here are the numbers:

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
200507	0.241	0.294	0.392	0.685
200508	0.242	0.295	0.395	0.690
200509	0.242	0.298	0.404	0.701
200604	0.245	0.302	0.406	0.708
200605	0.245	0.302	0.405	0.707
200606	0.246	0.305	0.403	0.707
200607	0.245	0.303	0.401	0.704
200608	0.247	0.304	0.406	0.709
200609	0.251	0.307	0.416	0.722
200704	0.255	0.316	0.424	0.740
200705	0.257	0.316	0.423	0.739
200706	0.262	0.325	0.439	0.764
200707	0.260	0.324	0.447	0.770
200708	0.264	0.325	0.453	0.778
200709	0.266	0.326	0.463	0.790
200804	0.270	0.331	0.463	0.795
200805	0.274	0.332	0.468	0.801
200806	0.275	0.330	0.480	0.811
200807	0.275	0.329	0.478	0.807
200808	0.276	0.327	0.480	0.808
200809	0.271	0.321	0.468	0.789

This is really pretty amazing if you think about it. After Hart put up a 900ish OPS in 2007, his projection was 790. After a serious letdown over the last few months, his projection is...789.

Part of the explanation is simple--that 2007 projection took into account some weaker seasons; the 2008 projection still counts the 2007 season, if not as much.

But from the perspective of MINER, there's a glaring spot of luck in Corey's 2007 season--his overall BABIP was a reasonable .321, but his BABIP on groundballs was over .300. League average is down in the low 200s, and while it's possible to outperform that, it's not typical. Generally, if you hit groundballs, most of them will be fielded, so matter how hard you hit them.

In other words, MINER saw Corey's 2007 season and wasn't completely sold. If you knock Corey's 2007 BABIP down to the .295 range where it probably belonged, his OPS probably loses 50 or 60 points, just adjusting for luck. That still leaves '07 as a good season, but instead of a 900 OPS falling to a 760 OPS, it's 840 to 760, which makes more sense.

Just as we saw with JJ yesterday, there are a lot of bumps in the road, but we're looking at a very similar player to the guy we went into the season with. We just overestimated what we had. (I'm as guilty of this as anybody.)

League average in right field was a 787 OPS this year, so we've got ourselves a super-average guy at that position who probably still has a good shot at beating that out.

I wouldn't bet on another All-Star appearance, though.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:03:27 -0000

First up, a quick injury report: I'm day-to-day with a nasty case of Wii Elbow. I appreciate all of your letters of support.

In Arizona: Angel Salome went 0-for-4 with a walk and a strikeout, drove in a run and scored one in the Javelinas' 8-7 win over Surprise yesterday. Brae Wright pitched a perfect inning and picked up his first hold. Box Score

In Hawai'i: It's probably a good thing you didn't stay up to catch the CaneFires last night, as I can't find a single Brewer prospect who played in the game, and as a result karma kicked their ass and they lost to North Shore 13-6. Box Score

The Javelinas have a home game against Phoenix that starts at 9 pm in Milwaukee, and the CaneFires play North Shore again tonight at midnight central time.

If those three paragraphs weren't enough AFL excitement for you, be sure to check out Taylor Green's blog from Arizona. In his first post, he gives a little background on himself, and how he got to the Fall League (replacing Mat Gamel).

Today is report card day for the Brewers. Here's the JS grades for 2008. By my calculator, the Brewers were given a 2.5 GPA but a B-plus overall grade. The Brew Town Beat has individual grades for players. Tom H. also has a few individual grades and wants to make sure you know that grading performances is hard.

Also, if you somehow missed the entire season, Tom H. ~~had some space to fill~~ has a full recap.

On the transaction front, four pitchers who spent time in Nashville in 2008 have been invited to spring training next season: right hander Joe Bateman and lefties Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron and Chris Narveson. There's no one in that list that I'd expect to contribute in 2008.

But, if they make it to the big club coming out of spring training, they'll probably get to run on the new grass in the outfield. Apparently the new infield grass is great, so now they're putting it in everywhere.

No Sabathia Smorgasbord today, but there is one link on Ben Sheets: his agent is comparing his elbow injury to a hamstring pull and says no real treatment was needed. If that's the case, then Sheets was either:

A) Lying about having a torn muscle two weeks ago, and making an excuse for not being able to pitch in the postseason, or
B) Lying about it now, and no one on Earth will sign him without a physical, so they'll find out anyway.

By spring training he'll be someone else's headache.

So the Mariners have interviewed the first five candidates for their open GM position, but Jack Z. was not one of them. They're still expected to talk to more candidates next week, but it sounds like Kim Ng of the Dodgers is the early frontrunner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

As the Mariners search for a new GM, it's becoming perfectly clear that there's no tried-and-true formula for selecting a good one, as evidenced by the GM's of the four remaining playoff teams.

Only one piece of hot stove news today: Reds utilityman Jolbert Cabrera, who returned to the big leagues in 2008 after spending 3 seasons in the minor leagues, refused an outright assignment to the minors and became a free agent yesterday. He's 35 and has less than 200 big league AB's since 2004, so I'm not entirely sure where he thinks he'll do better.

Oh, and the broken water pipe in the visitor's dugout at Chavez Ravine is only the latest in a long and storied history of Cubs smashing things after losing.

Drink up.

Projecting JJ Hardy

Jeff Sackmann — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:15:54 -0000

For John Burnson's book, The Graphical Player, I've been working on some extensions of my projection system, MINER. The fundamental system remains the same--it's the Marcel system, but with some obvious additions, such as adjusted minor league stats, park-adjusted MLB stats, batted-ball data, and some slightly more advanced age and position adjustments.

Frankly, I don't know just how good the system is, but it tracks Marcel pretty closely, except for those changes, most of which seem like improvements.

My biggest project has been to do a retroactive monthly projection for every one of 900 players that will be featured in the book. In other words, for every month in a player's major league career, I took the available data up to that point and came up with a projection using only that information.

(Some of this might sound familiar. In-season Marcels have been a focus of Sal Baxamusa's at The Hardball Times, and I'm indebted to Sal both for his published work and a few pointers he's given me behind the scenes.)

Without further ado, I want to share some of the results with you. There are no doubt prettier ways of sharing this data, but I'm saving that for later.

The table below shows month-by-month projections for James Jerry Hardy. The left-hand column is the month -- 200504 is April 2005, and the projections for that month include stats for that month. So the projections in the Apr 05 column take into account Apr 05 and the three years previous. I left out the months he was injured in 2006--his rate-stat projections didn't change during that time.

Month	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
200504	0.262	0.325	0.385	0.711
200505	0.262	0.325	0.383	0.709
200506	0.258	0.324	0.380	0.706
200507	0.260	0.331	0.385	0.717
200508	0.262	0.329	0.386	0.716
200509	0.269	0.334	0.405	0.741
200604	0.272	0.342	0.424	0.766
200605	0.269	0.339	0.420	0.760
200704	0.275	0.344	0.447	0.791
200705	0.286	0.350	0.477	0.827
200706	0.283	0.350	0.470	0.82
200707	0.282	0.347	0.455	0.802
200708	0.285	0.345	0.464	0.809
200709	0.286	0.344	0.463	0.807
200804	0.278	0.338	0.443	0.782
200805	0.276	0.338	0.434	0.773
200806	0.276	0.338	0.442	0.781
200807	0.283	0.342	0.461	0.804
200808	0.283	0.343	0.464	0.808
200809	0.281	0.341	0.463	0.805

My favorite part about running projections like these is that it takes the noise out of monthly performance without ignoring its import. For instance, JJ had an absolutely smoking May last year, with a .961 OPS in 28 games. You can see that reflected in his projections.

But unlike some wishful-thinking fans, MINER wouldn't have thought that JJ suddenly turned into Alex Rodriguez. Instead, the projection was never lower than .791 or higher than .827. Sure enough, JJ gave us an .821 performance in 2008.

While JJ's 2008 season had a much different trajectory than his 2007, it's interesting to see that the July/August/Sept projections are almost identical. If that means we'll get a similar season from him in 2009--at whatever position--I'll be a happy Brewers fan.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:47:03 -0000

Things must be slowing down a bit...today, there were only 270 posts and articles in my Google Reader from over 250 baseball blogs and sites.

The Peoria Javelinas defeated Surprise yesterday, 10-3. Omar Aguilar was the only Brewer prospect to appear in the game, and he allowed one hit while pitching a scoreless ninth. Box Score

The West Oahu CaneFires defeated North Shore 7-6. Chris Cody started the game and gave up four runs on eight hits in just 3.1 innings, but did strike out 7. He leads the Hawai'i Winter League with 12 K's in 3 appearances. Caleb Gindl went 1-for-4 with a walk. He's hitting .250/.364/.429 in his first 7 games in Hawai'i. Box Score

The Javelinas travel to Surprise today at 12:35 local time (2:35 in Milwaukee). The CaneFires play North Shore again tonight at 7:05 local time, which I think is five minutes after midnight at home.

Closer to home, we have a few more season in review posts. Big League Stew has their nail in the coffin on the 2008 Brewers. Jeff analyzed the Phillies/Brewers series over at The Hardball Times. Brian Anderson has his list of favorite Brewer moments from 2008. He also reveals that he's signed a five-year extension that will keep him with the Brewers through 2013.

I'll separate this one from the pack, because sometimes that helps when I want to make fun of something: The FanGraphs Brewer season in review has this quote in it:

As much as the defense and front of the rotation helped was as bad as the bullpen was.

What? I'll admit I'm sometimes clumsy when turning a phrase and my use of commas is borderline atrocious, but I at least usually proofread my stuff at least once to make sure the things I say make more sense than that. Click the link if you'd like to read more about how Jeff Suppan negated the performances of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. Or just move on. Life's too short.

Between the Green Pillars compares several Brewers' performances to their preseason projections. Most of them are about what you'd expect, but a couple of guys (J.J. Hardy, for example) don't get enough credit for the season they had.

Speaking of 2008 productivity, four Brewers are on Beyond The Box Score's quiz comparing 2008 hitters. I only got 8 of the 31 questions correct. Go see if you can do better.

There's only one link in today's Sabathia Smorgasbord, and if you've been around the web at all lately you've probably seen it: Ryan Braun thinks the Brewers have a shot at re-signing CC Sabathia, and that he might take fewer years for the same money to stay in Milwaukee. It seems unlikely, but Braun's been a straight-shooter in the past, so I have no reason to doubt him.

If this guy shaves Sabathia's name and number into his back hair to go with the "Go Brewers" shaved into his chest hair, will it make Sabathia any more likely to stay? The answer is probably no.

I don't expect Prince Fielder to be on the move this offseason, but if he is MLB Trade Rumors has six places he might be headed. Two-Fisted Slopper has a look at the Brewers' roster headed into the offseason, and makes a few predictions.

Before any decisions can be made on the 2009 roster, though, a decision needs to be made on interim manager Dale Sveum. J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Jeff Suppan all want him back. And of course, we've already heard the same from Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell and Robin Yount. Fielder's quote:

"I really like playing for him," Fielder said. "He makes me real comfortable, and he really had confidence in everybody, no matter what you do. You go 0-for-3, 0-for-4, you know that he still has confidence in you."

It's true. Sveum really did maintain confidence in everyone, no matter what they did. Just ask Corey Hart, who hit .170/.160/.213 in games managed by Sveum but still started and batted sixth in every game.

By 2010, the Brewers and Miller Park will have spent $9-12 million on a new HD scoreboard. Maybe they can show Packer games on it, since about twice as many TVs in Milwaukee preferred regular season football over playoff baseball.

So we've all more or less accepted the argument that Russell Branyan is a platoon-only hitter and can't hit lefties, right? But is it true? Geoff Young of Baseball Digest Daily takes a closer look.

Here are some hot stove notes:

The Cub Reporter has a quote suggesting the Cubs will raise their payroll in 2009, and begin to act like more of a large-market club.
The Rockies declined their option on RP Matt Herges, making him a free agent.
The Reds are going to let Corey Patterson and former Brewer Paul Bako walk.
The Mariners will most likely not re-sign Raul Ibanez, leading Bleeding Blue and Teal to make a list of places where he needs to sign to maximize the Mariners' draft compensation.

So if Lasik surgery could take Jason Kendall from a 63 OPS+ in 2007 to a 73 OPS+ in 2008, what can it do for 41 year old free-agent-to-be Omar Vizquel, who hit .222/.283/.267 in 2008? We're about to find out.

Today is our tenth day after the end of the regular season, and there's still not a single managerial vacancy, but the Rockies did fire their bench coach, hitting coach and third base coach and re-assign their bullpen coach yesterday. (h/t Purple Row)

Looking for work? The Astros are looking for an assistant GM for their AA affiliate, and the Yankees need an administrative assistant for business development. Update your resume today.

Oh, and if you want to be a ninja, you may want to check out this quick tutorial on smoke bombs.

Drink up.