Brew Crew Ball

Looking back at community projections: Shortstops

2009-11-09T20:00:32Z

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Alcides Escobar, seen here leaping over Delwyn Young, also leapfrogged J.J. Hardy this season en route to cementing himself as the shortstop of the future.

Browse more photos »

Let's continue to work our way around the diamond with a look at another very disappointing position: shortstops.

Projections:

J.J. Hardy
Projected: .281/.347/.455
Actual: .229/.302/.357

Alcides Escobar
Projected: .263/.308/.359
Actual: .304/.333/.368

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

If you've just now noticed that J.J. Hardy had a disappointing season, I'm sorry. Hardy underachieved our expectations by 143 OPS points. possibly the single largest gap between expectations and reality on the 2009 Brewers.

Meanwhile, the sample size is small, but Alcides Escobar exceeded our expectations in all three slash lines, and cemented his status as the Opening Day shortstop for 2010.

Speaking of small sample sizes: There's probably nothing too this, but check out Craig Counsell's splits by defensive position in 2009:

Pos.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
as 2B	206	.266	.322	.408	.739
as 3B	134	.333	.410	,470	.881
as SS	94	.253	.290	.333	.624
as PH	25	.313	.542	.375	.917

Counsell had a career year in 2009, and his numbers were good at second, great at third and incredible (in a small sample) as a pinch hitter. Yet somehow he was terrible as a shortstop. I'm not sure if that's relevant or just a small sample size quirk, but I thought I'd share it and let you decide for yourself.

Playing Time

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
J.J. Hardy	87.9%	67.1%	-20.8%
Craig Counsell	6.9%	13.6%	+6.7%
Alcides Escobar	5.3%	19.3%	+14%

Clearly, Hardy's underwhelming performance had something to do with him getting significantly less playing time, although his service time may also have had something to do with it. Escobar didn't play as much as many of us thought he should when Hardy was back in September, but still contributed nearly four times as often as we expected him to.

Again, when these projections were made Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign with the Crew. Many of us projected him to play anyway, but he likely would have gotten a larger share of the projection if we'd been sure he'd be back.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.277	.344	.442	.785
Actual	.247	.306	.356	.662
Difference	-.030	-.038	-.086	-.123

Heether added to 40-man

2009-11-09T18:29:23Z

Heether added to 40-man

Looks like a bench IF spot might be filled.

Monday's Frosty Mug

2009-11-09T16:01:31Z

by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Carlos Gomez makes the wrong kind of contact.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while realizing you left your credit card in your other armor.

Thanks to Dan, Tyler and Rubie for filling in for me last week while I took a quick break to experience life in New York for a few days. Writing the Mug is no small feat, and all three of them did admirable work in my place, so be sure to stop by their sites today to thank them. It's good to be home. With that said, I'm going in for oral surgery in roughly an hour so I'm off again tomorrow, and I've lined up another of my favorite Brewer bloggers to fill in. I'm hoping to return on Wednesday but that will depend on how I bounce back and how coherent I am on Vicodin.

The Brewers, of course, saw fit to ruin a perfectly good day of my vacation by trading J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. If you weren't around the site this weekend, you missed a lot of great content on the trade: Jordan weighed in with his disappointment, Jeff made the case for keeping Mike Cameron anyway, and Noah, writing his first weekend roundup, had a great collection of thoughts on the deal from around the web. With that said, there's still a bunch more out there:

The Transaction Oracle compared Gomez to Tom Goodwin and said, "Gomez's version of selectivity is staring blankly at a random pitch and then flailing at the next one."
Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press called Gomez "clueless" and said he "has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler." (h/t BBTF)
The Grand National Championships called Gomez "a Juan Pierre without all that incessant singles hitting."
TheJay has a look at the career paths of players who have made as many PAs as Gomez has at such a young age with such a low OBP. Not exceptionally pretty.
Aaron Gleeman says Gomez has gotten a bum rap, but also likes the deal for the Twins.
Miller Park Drunk has a roundup of other things people are saying about Gomez.
Meanwhile, despite Jeff's objections, Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers' decision to acquire Gomez means they won't make a push to retain Mike Cameron for 2010.
Nick's Twins Blog has an overview of the deal, including my scouting report for Hardy.
Twinkie Town has some questions about Hardy's defense (based largely on the comments of some frequent BCB'ers), and whether or not it's as good as advertised.
FanGraphs has a look at Hardy's defense, and rated him the third most valuable defensive player in baseball since 2007.
Along with the Red Sox (and presumably some others), the Reds confirmed interest in Hardy. Melvin didn't want to deal Hardy in the division, so he was forced to accept less from someone else.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham called the deal a steal for the Twins.
Rubie Q called the deal "worst nightmare stuff."
Baseball-Intellect says the Twins got Hardy for "pennies on the dollar."
Sabernomics is having a hard time choosing a winner in the deal.
Jorge Says No! says this deal has the potential to be win-win.

As of this writing, 54% of voters in the poll on your right think the Twins won the trade, with just 13% picking the Brewers. Gomez is walking in the door with a large portion of the fans believing he's not worth much, and it can be tough to overcome that when you're carrying a sub-.300 OBP. This could be the deal that sinks Doug Melvin.

Now, the Brewers have to find a way to wisely spend the financial windfall. MLB Trade Rumors has the likely landing spots for this winter's top 50 free agents, and lists both Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn as likely Brewers, and also lists the Crew as a potential interested party regarding Jon Garland. Meanwhile, they have Felipe Lopez as a Dodger, Mike Cameron as a Padre and Ben Sheets as a Ranger.

Beyond that, there's not a lot of Brewer news, unless you wanted to talk about the decision to decline David Weathers' option.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Exercised Brandon Webb's option for 2010.
Dodgers: Declined Jon Garland's option for 2010.
Nationals: Declined Austin Kearns' option for 2010.
Phillies: Exercised Cliff Lee's option for 2010 and declined Pedro Feliz's.
Pirates: Designated pitchers Virgil Vazquez and Eric Hacker and catcher Steve Lerud for assignment.
Red Sox: Declined their option for 2010 on Alex Gonzalez.
Reds: Outrighted outfielder Danny Richar and first baseman Kevin Barker to AAA. Both will be minor league free agents.
Rockies: Declined options on catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
Royals: Declined 2010 options for Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
Tigers: Removed outfielder Marcus Thames and catcher Matt Treanor from their 40-man roster.
White Sox: Bought out the final year of Jermaine Dye's contract.

I'm going to wrap this up quickly, because my pre-surgery meds are starting to kick in:

Miguel Olivo has been mentioned as a potential option for the Brewers next season. Beyond the Box Score has a comprehensive list of things he does well.
Phil Birnbaum looks at the possibility that younger umpires have more accurate strike zones.
Baseball Reference wants your thoughts to help improve their site.
Seventeen congressmen voted no on a resolution congratulating the Yankees for winning the World Series. One of them was Wisconsin rep Jim Sensenbrenner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous choice to win the AL MVP after leading the AL in hits, doubles, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases, while playing shortstop for the AL Champion Brewers.

It's also a big day for Brewer birthdays:

Dave Bush turns 30.
Angel Miranda, who appeared in 116 games as a Brewer between 1993 and 1997, turns 40.
Dion James, who was the Brewers' first round pick in the 1980 draft, turns 47.
Teddy Higuera, arguably the greatest pitcher in Brewer history, turns 51. You should celebrate his birthday by purchasing the sponsorship on his Bref page, which is available for $10.

Drink up.

Fall/Winter League Update for 11/9/2009

2009-11-09T13:12:02Z

It's been a week since I did one of these, so all stats are from November 2-8, unless otherwise noted.

In Arizona:

Lorenzo Cain went 5-for-12 with two walks, scored twice, drove in two runs and stole three bases, raising his AFL line to .259/.403/.296. He still has just two extra base hits in 66 PAs.
Taylor Green went 1-for-3 with a walk and scored a run. He's hitting .200/.364/.200 in 43 PAs.
Jonathan Lucroy went 2-for-7 with a double and drove in two runs. He's hitting .364/.371/.576 in 34 PAs.
Omar Aguilar pitched an inning last Monday and two more on Thursday, allowing three earned runs on five hits and three walks, striking out two. He's posted a 7.84 ERA in 10.1 AFL innings, with a 10:6 K:BB ratio.
Zach Braddock pitched perfect innings on Monday and Friday, striking out one in each outing. Braddock has posted a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 innings, and hasn't allowed a hit or walk in his last four innings.
Josh Butler had a nice bounce back outing Tuesday, pitching three scoreless innings, allowing two hits, two walks and striking out four. He's now carrying a 10.13 ERA in 10.2 innings, and has walked 7 and struck out 11. Opposing batters are still hitting .420 off of him.
Mark Rogers got roughed up on Wednesday, allowing five runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk while lasting just .1 innings. Rogers has posted a 17.61 ERA in 7.2 AFL innings, walking nine and striking out five.
Rob Wooten pitched 1.2 innings Wednesday and another inning Friday, and allowed no runs on a hit and no walks, striking out three. That lowered his ERA to 4.76 in 5.2 innings, with one walk and seven strikeouts.

In Venezuela:

Alcides Escobar went 5-for-19 with two walks, scored twice, drove in two runs and stole two bases for Lara. Overall, he's hitting .281/.324/.281 in his first 34 VWL PAs.
Adam Heether hasn't played for Caracas since November 1 and I'm not sure why. With that said, as always, translations of Venezuelan articles on the matter are unintentionally hilarious:

Then, the eighth straight bat connects Estrada and sent it to the street. Eduardo Perez to Jose Castillo, Melian by Jose Duarte and Mario Lisson heethen Adam was the newness in hairy toletería through Hudgens wants to give opportunity to all its players.

Sounds like Heether is being held out to give someone else a shot. No mention of him being hurt, at least.

Hernan Iribarren went 6-for-15 with a triple and a walk, drove in three runs and scored twice for Lara. He's hitting .304/.360/.446 in 99 PAs.
Brendan Katin went 6-for-16 with three doubles, a triple, six walks, two stolen bases, four runs scored and two RBI. He's hitting .254/.395/.458 in 69 PAs.
Ryan Houston made his first appearance Thursday since having two disastrous blown saves in his first two outings. He pitched a perfect inning, picking up his first save.

In Mexico: David Welch picked up a win Thursday, allowing two runs on six hits in six innings of work, walking none and striking out seven. He's posted a 3.54 ERA in 20.1 LMP innings, striking out 23 and walking just seven.

In the Dominican Republic: All stats are from Sunday-Saturday:

Erick Almonte went 7-for-19 for Cibao, with two walks, a double and a home run, scoring twice and driving in two runs. He's hitting .305/.406/.441 in 68 DWL PAs.
Sam Narron started on Friday for Cibao, and allowed three earned runs on seven hits in just 3.1 innings, walking none and striking out one. He's posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings, walking six and striking out seven.
Juan Sandoval pitched 4.1 innings over three outings, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk, striking out three. He has a 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings of work.

The Weekend Linkfest!

2009-11-08T12:00:47Z

Some things to read while being a real man or while putting up your holiday decorations.

I would like to preface this by kind of letting everyone know what is going on. As KL posted friday, Morineko, FtJ and I will be your new weekend editors. What that means is we will be hanging around and posting a weekend news post to keep things alive on the weekends. KL asked us to "make it our own" and do what we'd like with the post. I, personally, will probably be following the same basic format as the Frosty Mugs, though I can't speak on whether the other two will be doing anything radically different. Hopefully we can get it so it is nearly as active on Saturday and Sunday as it is Monday-Friday. If there is anything you would like somewhat different, at least from me, feel free to voice whatever is on your mind.

And if you are arriving late today, be sure to check out Jordan's and Jeff's excellent-as-always posts below this one. Both posts relate to the JJ Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade, about which I have an abundance of articles, so let's get right into the bulletpoints for that:

The Bucky Channel likes the trade. However, they also think Gomez should lead off, which is probably a bad idea.
Wisconsin's Sports Tap also is a fan of the trade, and gives a pretty good look at what this means for the Brewers.
Carlos Gomez says that he'll hit in Milwaukee with a full time job
The Official Site has an article about Alcides Escobar, along with Hardy's thoughts on the player Escobar is and will be.
Casa De Machado says their good-bye to JJ and also thinks that Corey Hart will be traded with Jody Gerut taking over in right field.
Milwaukee's Own Brew Crew Fans likes the trade and likens Carlos Gomez to another player with what seems to be a similar skillset, Michael Bourn
Miller Park Drunk has a big roundup of what various places are saying about the trade.

Tom H also sees the Bourn comparison. I have also seen/heard comparisons to Jose Reyes in various places as well.

There are other links, but there is nothing really to differ them from the rest. Most people either like the trade or are at least OK with it. I only saw a couple places where the author hated the trade.

In other news, it sounds like Mark Mulder will probably be a Brewer sooner than later. We;ve been hearing that for a while, but I haven't heard of any displeasure about the Brewers taking that risk. As long as there is no big guaranteed contract, I don't really know how you could be upset with that.

Baseball Daily Digest has a very good article up about new Brewers pitching coach Rick Peterson, his time in Oakland, and his work with their "big three". It's definitely worth a read.

The Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game was yesterday, and the only Brewer, Mark Rogers, didn't get a chance to pitch in the game. Here is the gameday with the boxscore.

Roguejim has a fanpost about pertinent off season dates. Circling the Bases has an even more complete list full of offseason dates.

Circling the Bases also says that the Phillies will be in the market for a third basemen to replace Pedro Feliz. Would they have any pitching the Brewers could get for McGehee or Gamel?

Several different sites have been ranking the New York Yankees World Series winners. I will link to the Hardball Times version because they have links to several others if you are interested.

Other than all that, I just have a few quick, interesting links:

If you don't like ESPN, Brewed Sports gives you another reason to dislike the World Leader.

BizofBaseball makes the case against implementing a salary cap in baseball.

In Cuba, there was a case where the Umpires using instant replay might still have led to the wrong decision.

And I don't know what the holiday was, but the city of New York had some sort of parade. Something to do with the Yankees I think? I don't know, Jay-Z was there, so I am guessing it must have been important.

That's about it. Unless of course you want to sign Seth McClung up for some anger management classes.

Let's Sign Mike Cameron Anyway

2009-11-07T18:14:33Z

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

This is what I'm talking about, baby. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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We've got Carlos Gomez now. I haven't looked really closely at his numbers, but my first take is that it's a fair deal. The Twins get a somewhat better player for 2010 in J.J. Hardy, but we get someone who is cheaper, fills a hole, and might improve while still under team control.

But...reasonable people can disagree, and evaluating the Hardy-Gomez deal isn't my point. [Jordan just published some interesting thoughts on the deal. Even though I've rudely buried his post, go read what he has to say.]

Instead, I'd like to suggest that, against the sudden, unanimous conventional wisdom, we still re-sign Mike Cameron. (I haven't read through all the comment threads yet, so I apologize if I'm repeating somebody else's idea.)

Here are some things to consider:

1. Cameron is undervalued. (Yes, I know I'm opening up another can of worms here.) He's an elite defender, he has aged well, and he may be willing to come back to Milwaukee at a discount. If we can sign him for less than or equal to what we paid last year, we've got a deal. A much better deal than we'd get spending an equivalent amount on pitching.

2. Cameron or Gomez can play right field. The Mariners have shown the value of having elite defenders in more than one outfield spot. Cameron has played corners in his career. Center field prowess translates pretty reliably to corner outfield prowess. For those of you with a statistical bent: The positional adjustment would change, but a +10 CF would probably be +15 or so in right, so it would come close to evening out.

3. Outfield defense is important. Suppan is a fly ball pitcher. Looper is a fly ball pitcher. (Though most of his fly balls are out of reach.) If we sign Washburn, there's another one. If we're shopping for mid-rotation guys, fly ball pitchers aren't necessarily bad--IF we have an elite defensive outfield. It would make Doug Melvin's job easier, actually: Ground ball pitchers are generally more valuable than fly ball pitchers since teams stick Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez in the outfield. (And other reasons, but I don't want to digress.) So having the freedom to sign fly ball guys would give Doug some flexibility.

4. Corey Hart is getting expensive, and he is not necessarily very good. Unlike with Hardy, I don't have a ton of faith Corey Hart being a valuable part of a contender. Yet, his name reliably comes up in trade rumors. Maybe Hart + Gamel will get us that starting pitcher. It's tough to gauge this from the outside, but I get the impression that we could receive fair value in a Hart trade.

5. Worst case scenario, we've added Gomez as a fourth OF. Maybe we can't trade Hart, but payroll hasn't really gone up. Then, depending on how the season goes, we can flip Cameron or (more probably) Hart to a team that develops a need. The outfield would be crowded, and it would prevent a Gamel move to right field, but too much talent isn't a bad thing, and I don't get the impression Gamel is shagging fly balls this offseason anyway.

Like most of my offseason proposals, I don't think this is what Doug is going to do. But I think it's what he should do.

Thoughts on the Hardy for Gomez Deal

2009-11-07T17:29:58Z

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

2 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2009, file photo, Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez poses for a photograph. The Milwaukee Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins on Friday, Nov. 6, 2009, for outfielder Gomez. (AP Photo/Steven Senne,file)

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I like the acquisition of Gomez, before we start putting any context on this trade. He's a ridiculously good defender, one of the best centerfielders in the game due to his tremendous speed and range. Being an elite defender gives him plenty of value before even looking at his offensive contributions. There's a tendency to group together "good centerfielders"-- but there's a big difference between the tier of guys like Tony Gwynn Jr., Juan Pierre, and Jody Gerut, and truly elite defenders like Gomez.
Gomez, right now, is not a good offensive player. He's been basically a replacement-level hitter in his time in the big leagues so far. That does not mean he's been a replacement level player, though, because his stellar defense has made him worth between about 1 and 2 wins in his two full seasons. He has a career .286 wOBA, and the league average is around .333-- and wOBA includes stolen base contributions. His career slash line is .246/.292/.346.
There's reason to believe that Gomez has a much bigger offensive upside. He was a very highly regarded prospect in his day, and a major piece in the Johan Santana deal. In A-ball as a 19 year-old, he .275/.335/.380; then he came in with a .281/.350/.423 line at AA at age 20. He was bumped to the majors by the Mets at age 21 after hitting .271/.353/.361 in AAA. He's been in the majors since then, with that completed year and two more with the Twins, and hasn't cracked a .300 OBP. Just based on his profile, it has to be possible that there's an upside of even a .320-.330 OBP and .350 SLG this year, which would go a long way towards making Gomez a much more valuable player. He'd practically be an all-star if he was a league average hitter, but that's probably too much to ask for at this point. He'll be here for four years, though, so there's still hope.
Gomez is a lot of fun to watch. I usually don't get caught up in that type of stuff, but I always found it amusing to see him take a monster hack at a pitch and almost corkscrew himself into the ground, and then bunt on the next pitch. And his energy on the basepaths and ability in center will keep us entertained.
In terms of total value, this deal is pretty close to an even match. The expected value of Hardy's production over his salary in the next two years is very close to the amount of expected value of Gomez's production over his salary in the next four years. That's a strategy for a team that doesn't expect to be in contention for the next two years, however, so it doesn't quite make sense to me why the Brewers chose to do this type of deal. I'm just going to go ahead and quote Graham from Lookout Landing, who was disappointed that the Mariners didn't beat the Twins asking price for Hardy: In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.
The Brewers did everything wrong in their handling of Hardy. The last line from Graham pretty much sums up what I think-- they sold Hardy at the value to them rather than his actual value. The whole situation has been bizarre-- sending him to AAA and promoting Escobar to shake things up when there was no real reason for doing so expect gaining a year of service time that apparently increased his value to... Carlos Gomez. Yes, Hardy had a bad year. Projecting him with a weight of 3/2/1 for the last three seasons still gives a 2-3 win player with 5 win upside easily. Even at his worst, last season, he was better than Gomez was last year. And maybe the strangest part of this deal was the huge rush. It happened two days after the World Series, and Doug Melvin admitted he didn't even call a team with a shortstop shortage, the Tigers, much less the rest of the league. Not only did he sell Hardy at the absolute lowest point of his value, but he managed to pull the trigger so quickly there's no telling what might have happened had he held on longer. I doubt the Twins would have pulled their Gomez offer from the table.
Melvin didn't even touch the pitching staff with his biggest trading chip, and downgraded the offense. Sure, the extra savings from Hardy to Escobar and Cameron to Gomez give the Brewers some money to throw at a free agent pitcher. But that's not the logical way to look at it. Say the Brewers had accepted the apparent Red Sox offer of Michael Bowden for Hardy. Bowden, at the mininum, makes even less than Gomez next year, and Hardy's salary is gone either way. In this situation, with even a little bit more money to play with, they could re-sign Cameron to play center for maybe 1 year, $8-10 million because they don't have to worry about another pitcher-- or they could sign a righty centerfielder like Reed Johnson to platoon with Jody Gerut, a platoon which would project about the same as the Gomez and Gerut situation going on right now, in 2010 at least. Gomez is a better bet for the following three years, but remember that Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer are coming and might have been able to fill in the gap by 2011. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Would we rather be looking at a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bowden, Bush, Suppan with Cam in center and an extra $5 mil, or that same rotation with Gerut/platoonmate in center and $15 million to throw at Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, or Justin Duchscherer? Again, it's such a strange idea to throw your most valuable trading chip at a really slight position player upgrade for 2010. It just looks like he's playing for down the road. If salary relief is one of the good parts of the trade... well, non-tendering J.J. would have gotten salary relief too. Getting Bowden would have accomplished the same thing. I don't know why we have to consider this a positive in the trade.
I really like the idea of getting Gomez here. He's a nice piece to have. Not for the price of Hardy, though. And I don't understand the way Doug Melvin handled this situation overall. He could have done so much better. I'll wait to judge his offseason until we see if the available money is handled the right way. One thing I will say now-- I hope the moves will be with a consistent goal in mind. Spending the money on starters like Washburn, Piniero, and Marquis would probably not upgrade the team enough to justify the spending and commitment, which is why I suggest 1 year deals for injury-prone pitchers. And if they do decide to target a pitcher, I hope Casey McGehee is more likely to be traded than Mat Gamel. Acquiring Gomez and dealing Gamel would probably indicate a confused set of goals about when the team's window of contention is.

Please welcome our new weekend editors!

2009-11-06T23:00:32Z

Last week I asked for applicants for a new Weekend Editor position here at BCB, and today I'm proud to announce that three weekend editors have been brought on board.

If you've visited the comments section, you're probably familiar with NoahJ, Morineko and Fatter than Joey. Starting tomorrow, the three of them will be responsible for weekend content here on the site, working on a rotation. NoahJ will debut tomorrow, with Morineko and FTJ making their debuts in the weeks to come.

Please join me in welcoming them on board!

Brewers decline David Weathers' option

2009-11-06T21:09:25Z

Brewers decline David Weathers' option

Another $3.3 million saved. (There was a $400,000 buyout.)

Looking back at community projections: Second basemen

2009-11-06T20:00:31Z

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Rickie Weeks tosses his bat to one of the five other Brewers to play his position in 2009. The bat was later stolen by Prince Fielder, who used it to win the Home Run Derby, if I recall correctly.

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Ok, after a day off for The Thinker, let's jump back into this with a look at second basemen:

Take a moment to think, once again, about what happened at second base for the Brewers, and the somewhat miraculous results. Early in the season, Rickie Weeks went down for the year and the Brewers were left with turmoil at the top of the order and at second base. Six players played second at one point or another for the Brewers, yet somehow the position was one of the team's most productive.

Projections:

Rickie Weeks
Projected: .257/.362/.425
Actual: .272/.340/.517

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Casey McGehee
Projected: ..279/.334/.393
Actual: .301/.360/.499

TheJay, while refusing to predict exactly who would end up playing in Weeks' place, nearly nailed a 2009 prediction for Weeks, saying: "Hey, someone has to figure he’ll both bash up his wrist again and hit about what he’s done so far in his career." Wekks was ahead of his career numbers at the time, but sure enough, a wrist injury ended his season significantly early.

Craig Counsell's playing time projection at this and the other infield positions will probably seem low, but keep in mind, Counsell wasn't actually re-signed for 2009 yet when we made these projections.

Finally, there's probably not a single player at any position we missed on more than Casey McGehee. Back in January, we collectively projected him to get roughly two and a half percent of the plate appearances at second base, and didn't project him to play third at all.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Rickie Weeks	80.2%	21.2%	-59%
Jason Bourgeois	6.1%	0%	-6.1%
Hernan Iribarren	5.6%	.4%	-5.2%
Alcides Escobar	2.7%	0%	-2.7%
Casey McGehee	2.7%	12.1%	+9.4%
Craig Counsell	2.2%	27.1%	+24.9%
Bill Hall	.5%	0%	-.5%
Felipe Lopez	0%	38.6%	+38.6%
Frank Catalanotto	0%	.5%	+.5%

Wow, look at that mess. I didn't even know how to sort this table to appropriately display the chaos. And yet somehow, it worked.

At this point in January, Jason Bourgeois had just wrapped up a long hitting streak in Mexico, and if you had told me the Brewers would use six second basemen in 2009 and he wouldn't be one of them, I would have been shocked. In a world where Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign, Bourgeois projected to be Weeks' top backup. Instead, he spent most of the season patrolling the outfield in Nashville.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.258	.354	.413	.767
Actual	.302	.378	.475	.852
Difference	+.044	+.024	+.062	+.085

Brewers acquire CF Carlos Gomez from Minnesota in exchange for SS J.J. Hardy.

2009-11-06T16:58:00Z

Brewers acquire CF Carlos Gomez from Minnesota in exchange for SS J.J. Hardy.

Friday's Brisket Carving Station.

2009-11-06T14:09:57Z

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

"UGGGGGGGLA!" (AP Photo/Darren Hauck)

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Some things to read while checking the departures from Kansas City International Airport (Greinke's gotta be on one of those planes) ...

I’m guessing this is how you, fair reader, reacted when you first clicked on BCB this morning:

YOU (setting down your bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch and firing up your computer): Time for my first stop of the day, Brew Crew Ball. I wonder who KL lined up to handle the Mug today? First, we had Dan Walsh linking to a blog on pizza, then we had Tyler Maas, who writes for the blog on pizza. This has been a terrific two days. What fantastic pizza purveyor is on tap today?

Oh. It’s just Rubie Q.

Sigh.

Am I right? I’m close, aren’t I?

According to the formula I was given, this is the part of the Mug where I link to our site, our Twitter feed, our Facebook page, our MySpace page, our LinkedIn page, and provide all of our Social Security numbers. When I’m feeling frisky, I’ll write something off-color on Quevedo at the Buffet. (Which is to say: I don’t write very much on the Buffet.) If you’re hip to the Twitter or Facebook thing, good for you. I’m not. (What’s that you say? 2007 called and said I should catch up with the times? Yeah, well, I think you should get the hell off my lawn.)

ANYWAY, since we don’t run any ads on the Buffet, and since 83% of our posts revolve around inside jokes (many of which aren’t even funny in the first place), I’m not going to direct you there. Instead, I’ll plug my boy Dan Walsh’s site. He doesn’t have a joe job like the rest of us; he actually tries to make money doing this stuff. Plus, he’s got Li’l Walshy (Yosty-ed!) in the fold now, and early reports indicate that LW bears a striking and unfortunate resemblance to her Papa. That kid’s gonna need all the help she can get, so turn on your heart light and check out The Daily Drink.

Now, then: onto buisness…

On Wednesday, Walsh linked to this post from Brewers Locker, which advocated trading for Juan Pierre, who's apparently still masquerading as a "legit leadoff hitter." In response, I give you this Fire Joe Morgan Classic. (Please note: linking to FJM is my way of saying: "Please please please please please Jesus God in Heaven don't trade for Juan Pierre.")

With each passing day, Tim Lincecum becomes more and more like Mitch Kramer: he's got the hair, he's got the wire-thin frame, Ben Affleck chases him around town with a wooden paddle, and now (allegedly) he's been busted with pot. You cool, Tim? (He was asking if you get high.)

(I hope the Washington authorities cut Mitch some slack. After all, the guy lives and works in California six months out of the year, and, in California, you can buy pot in vending machines.)

If you're physically incapable of reading things two inches to the left right (or, if you're physically incapable of distinguishing between left and right, as I apparently am), you may have missed RogueJim's FanPost on important free agent dates. The good news? Opening Day is officially less than five months away. The bad news? The home opener is on a Monday. Boo. (Three day weekend, anyone?)

McCalvy's got a note on the start of free agency, too (and gosh darnit if RogueJim didn't scoop me on that one, as well; throw me a bone, Jim), and the news that Kendall, Cameron, and Lopez qualified as Type B free agents -- with Lopez finishing just behind Dan Uggla, the last Type A free agent among second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops. As Anthony Witrado might say: Why you gotta be crimpin' FeLo's style, Dan Uggla?

Here's your Friday dose of Yankee hate:

Nicole at CuteSports bemoans the ubiquitous Yankee hats, which managed to infiltrate an innocent AHL game.
My great and good friend Reid at the Buffet calls the Yanks the "big stack bully of the MLB poker table."
Tyler at Bugs & Cranks awoke from his short winter's nap to find the World Series was over.
I'm putting Joe Posnanski's post on the Yankees' payroll in the clean-up slot because, as per usual, Pos knocks it out of the park. (To paraphrase Pos: while everybody else is playing "Contra" with the standard allotment of three lives, the Yanks have gone UP UP DOWN DOWN LEFT RIGHT LEFT RIGHT B A START. Is it within the rules of the game? Sure. Does that make it any easier to swallow? Hells no.)
Happy Yankees = one sad Clown.
Haudricourt gets in on the fun, too, with an article titled: "Yanks Pocket a Series Win." (Semi-related note: There were a lot of ESPN types who were lavishly praising the Yankees for keeping the "core" group of Jeter, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte together. Why, exactly, do they get credit for this? The Yanks ability to outbid and outspend doesn't just relate to other teams' players; it applies to their own, too.)

Around the Majors:

Thursday was the first day that players could file for free agency, and many of them jumped at the opportunity. According to MLB.com, 79 of the 183 eligible players filed yesterday.
The ChiSox and Royals pulled off the rare intradivision trade yesterday, with the Pale Hose getting Mark Teahen and the Roy Boys getting Josh Fields and Chris Getz. And the Sox also signed Mark Kotsay to a $1.5 million, one-year deal.
The Bo Sox nabbed Jeremy Hermida from the Marlins, in exchange for two left-handed pitchers whose names I can't be bothered to remember.
The Angels signed Bob Abreu for another two years.
And for anybody hoping that the Crew might make a push for Braves pitcher Tim Hudson, that train appears to have sailed: rumor has it that the Braves and Hudson are crossing the Ts and dotting the lower-case Js on a three-year extenstion.

In Mug tradition, I'll finish with a birthday. However, I don't know where KL gets all those Brewer birthday notes, so I can't hook you up there. Instead, I'll tell you that November 6 is Glenn Frey's birthday. What's the best thing about Glenn Frey? It's not that he was in the Eagles. It's not that he was the apparent inspiration for the character of Russell Hammond in Almost Famous. Nope -- it's this thing that Will Ferrell and Ben Stiller made.

Dig in, friends.

Elias rankings are out and #Brewers' Felipe Lopez indeed slipped to Type B.

2009-11-06T06:49:37Z

Elias rankings are out and #Brewers' Felipe Lopez indeed slipped to Type B.

Tweet from mlb.com's Adam McCalvy. Cameron, Kendall, Looper, and Weathers all also qualify as Type B free agents.

Pitching: Concentration vs. Skill

2009-11-05T22:30:29Z

This is outside my normal realm of analysis, but it's something I've wanted to address for a while. I'll get some Arizona Fall League Pitch F/x stuff up later in this week or early next week for sure.

I'm not too much of a pitcher, but I sometimes get that role in stickball games. I often struggle with my control. I'm inside, outside, high, and low. It really has nothing to do with my concentration or mental ability. It has a lot to do with my ability to throw a ball where I want to throw it.

If a quarterback misses on a throw, we don't accuse him of being a head-case. If a shooting gaurd misses a three, we don't accuse him of being a head-case. So what's my point here? Control is a skill, just like pitching velocity is a skill and pitch movement is a skill. An argument can be made that the control skill is in a way dependent on a pitcher's concentration, focus, and mental clarity, but then again, almost all skill actions in sports are.

We can acknowledge that pitchers like Manny Parra and also Yovani Gallardo have some problems with their control. It's not only measured by walks per inning but in general, better control sets up better success in getting strikeouts and groundballs-- the two best things a pitcher can do to help their success. But I don't think we need to assume that the control problems are the result of mental issues. It's not fair to the pitchers.

Concentration is an important part of athletics. The ability to concentrate is paired with a physical ability to make our world-class athletes what they are. A hitter must be able to swing a bat incredibly quickly, have fast reflexes and instincts, and be able to have the mental awareness and concentration to connect with a ball. In the same way, a pitcher needs to have the physical ability to throw a ball very hard, the ability to throw it where he wants to, and the concentration to not lapse in his mechanics and throw a poor pitch.

Pitchers are not in a unique situation that they can somehow become better by thinking harder and clearer. Pitching control is a skill. It's possible to improve control, just as it's possible to improve velocity or a hitter's swing. It's not fair to blame a pitcher's mentality or attitude for having less than stellar control unless we know something specific. It's not a logical way of looking at the problem when you compare pitchers to other types of athletes.

Criticism of pitch sequencing and selection is another issue entirely. Pitchers, catchers, and the coaching staff work together to come up with a plan before the game-- it's not as if a pitcher like Parra decides what to throw on the fly. If there are issues in this area, they need to begin changing with the coaching staff and catcher.

The Thursday Thinker: Thinking about Ben Sheets

2009-11-05T20:00:33Z

In 2004, Ben Sheets had one of the best pitching seasons in Brewer history. How many Brewers with comparable seasons can you name? Photo via fullcountpitch.com

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Before I left on vacation, we had a couple of extended conversations about Ben Sheets and his value. Sheets had the best season of his career in 2004, going 12-14 with a 2.70 ERA in 237 innings, striking out 264.

Only six pitchers in Brewer history, including Sheets, have ever finished a season with a sub-3.00 ERA and over 200 innings pitched. How many can you name in five minutes?

Again, here are the rules: Post your score in the comments, but don't comment on any specific answer until after 6 pm Central time, so everyone gets a chance to try it out without having it spoiled for them. And, of course, there's no reason to cheat here, because there's no prizes.

Since there are only six answers, odds are someone will get a perfect score. If you manage to get them all, post your time along with your score in the comments. With that said, don't be too embarrassed if you forget a couple (I wouldn't have gotten them all).

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Somebody Get Me My Cardboard: Bob Wolfley Breaks It Down

2009-11-05T17:46:44Z

Before I head out to the airport to meet Zach Grienke, I thought I'd pass along some Brewers professional sportswritery talk from Bob Wolfley, brought to you by the employers of Tom Haudricourt and Tony Witrado. (Ahh, read it anyway.) There are some interesting nuggets, such as:

Baseball's best base-running leftfielder? Why, it's The Deputy.
Only once in 2009 has Prince Fielder advanced from first to third on a single.
Many Brewers were on the list of best defenders at their respective position. Sadly, they were at the bottom of said list. Mike Cameron, though, not so bad.
Although ordering intentional walks might make Ken Macha feel Macha-vellian, he really should avoid them as if he were Ned Yost.

Anyway, there are a few other statistical croutons for you, like win shares and YoGa's curveballs, so enjoy.

Thursday's Frosty Maas

2009-11-05T14:15:14Z

Wookie of the Year.

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Some things to read while tanning.

Tyler Maas here, filling in for Snow. You might (but almost certainly don't) recognize me from such sites as Right Field Bleachers, Bugs & Cranks, The Daily Drink and A.V. Club Milwaukee. I also write as "T. Mario" on Doctors of Za, my newly-launched Wisconsin-based pizza review site. If it makes Trenni laugh out loud, it probably at least warrants a look from you.

I hate doing/am terrible at link dumps, but BCB's fearful leader is a great guy, so hopefully I do him proud and give you all something worth reading. Away we go.

Against all odds, the underdog Yankees won the 2009 World Series - their 27th. What is their secret?

Hideki Matsui won World Series MVP.

"I got Matsui."
- Paul Rudd in Knocked Up

Brewers

Miller Park Drunk is my favorite Brewers blog. It doesn't always write about the Brewers, but it's hilarious and has balls.

We Brewer fans are lucky to have a writer Adam McCalvy. He's hard at work even when there's nothing to write about.

Yikes. Not touching this one.

Some math thing about Warren Spahn that I didn't read. Not a Brewer, but a former Milwaukee player.

Minor Leagues

As many Crew fans hoped when he was drafted, Mark Rogers is an All-Star (in the Arizona Fall League's "Rising Stars Showcase"). Who's the bust now, world?

Oddly, Rogers isn't pitching like an All-Star.

As noted in a FanShot Wednesday, Don Money will return as Nashville's manager. Rich Gale will join him in Nashville as the Sounds' new pitching coach.

NL Central

Richard Justice has thinks he knows how to run the Astros.

Does six years at $96M sound about right for Matt Holliday? Can't beat that playoff defense.

The Cards released Brad Thompson.

Albert Pujols is stepping up to help the family of (former Brewer) Mike Coolbaugh.

Other

Could the M's be in on Ben Sheets?

TBS admits Chip Caray 'made some errors' in the booth this postseason. I guessed I missed it. The again with the teams competing in the 2009 postseason, I often opted to watch re-runs of Law & Order: SVU instead of big-budget, predictable baseball.

Big League roots run tall (about 3' 7'') in the Gaedele family.

Some sports costumes. I'm loving number 12.

Derek Jeter now has A BRIDGE! To contrast, the coolest thing that's ever happened to me was making Trenni Kusnierek LOL by writing about pizza. And being the guest editor of BCB, of course.

Sorry.

Keep reading, and for those of you with disposable income, buy a unique shirt from the all but dead Right Field Bleachers. We have like 200 left.

Your World Series Game 6 Open Thread

2009-11-05T00:02:59Z

Get it while you can: tonight's (possibly) your last chance to get your baseball fix in 2009.

Need more reasons to watch? How 'bout a 38-year-old and a 37-year-old trading off-speed pitches in near-freezing temperatures? Sounds compelling, right?

And here's three more reasons, in my best Joe Buck voice: Ruiz. Gardner. Feliz. ONLY ON FOX.

Have fun, cats and kittens.

Money returning as AAA manager; Gale named pitching coach

2009-11-04T20:53:50Z

Money returning as AAA manager; Gale named pitching coach

Rich Gale spent the 2009 season in the Nats system. He also worked at the big league level as the Red Sox pitching coach in 92-93.

Looking Back at Community Projections: First Basemen

2009-11-04T20:00:35Z

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Prince Fielder's 2009 numbers look even better when compared to what we expected.

Browse more photos »

Projections:

Prince Fielder
Projected: .284/.380/.547
Actual: .299/.412/.602

Obviously, we all got significantly more than we bargained for from Fielder this season. Not only did he start all 162 games and pick every Brewer at bat at first base, he slugged over .600, a full 25 points above the most optimistic of the 13 projections, and surpassed our OBP expectations by 32 points as well.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Prince Fielder	93%	100%	+7%
Brad Nelson	3.5%	0%	-3.5%
Mike Lamb	2.2%	0%	-2.2%
Mike Rivera	1.3%	0%	-1.3%

I'd say this is pretty self-explanatory. While all of us expected Fielder to play close to full time, none of us expected him to take every plate appearance by a Brewer first baseman this season. Brad Nelson was off the roster early, Mike Lamb didn't even make the team out of spring training and Mike Rivera never saw time at first. Casey McGehee was the only other Brewer to play there this season: He played four innings defensively and did not bat.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.282	.376	.538	.927
Actual	.299	.412	.602	1.014
Difference	+.017	+.036	+.066	+.087