Brew Hoop

2012 NBA Draft: Prospect Rankings Vol. 1, Draft Express And ESPN Often Agree

2012-05-14T11:40:02Z

I have a love/hate relationship with NBA Mock Drafts. I love examining the process itself -- like what makes people change their picks and opinions long after the most important aspects of each prospect's career are already in the books (the competitive basketball games they played are scouted and on film) -- but I hate how everything quickly becomes a disguised riff on the what the handful of true experts have to say. Draft Express is better than almost anything else you can read for free online. That's the simple truth.

However, it's also undeniably fun to pick and project players as if we have the experience of a professional scout and the power of an NBA GM. I tracked the mock drafts last year, and that will be a project again this summer, but I wanted to start with basic prospect rankings this time.

Raw 2012 NBA Draft prospect rankings carry more weight in my mind. Mock drafts can be muddled with hearsay and "whispers" about who a team liked in workouts, or fear that a team will draft based on need, but the true rankings speak more to the "Best Player Available" mantra that everyone really wants. Straight up, who's going to be the better player? That's what I want to know from draft sites.

Draft Express and ESPN are the big players in terms of original content and scouting notes, so they will go head-to-head in my 2012 NBA Draft rankings post series. Where do the sites disagree? On which players are they aligned? Usually this information just fades into the ether as each site updates their rankings and makes the old versions disappear, but I'm going to track what happens this year. The respective draft boards are analyzed and combined in a single graph, so you can get a good look at how each players grades out.

Here's what's going on: I recorded the big board rankings from Draft Express and ESPN as of 5/12/2012, and complied a chart of the top 20 players on each site. The chart below is organized according to Draft Express' hierarchy (which is why you see the clean diagonal line of full circles) and ESPN is listed side-by-side as an open circle for comparison. The easy thing to remember is that open circles trending to the left mean ESPN is higher on a player than Draft Express, while an open circle trending to the right means ESPN is less impressed than DX.

Here is what the current landscape looks like for the 2012 NBA Draft:

The four players generating the most discord in the top 20 after the NCAA season are Arnett Moultrie (nine-slot separation), Dion Waiters (eight slots) John Henson (six slots) and Marquis Teague (six-slots). Those are big swings, but only Henson is projected to go in the Draft Lottery by either site, so the stakes aren't exactly high.

What's more amazing is that there is so much agreement on the relative value of the top prospects, even though all of those players are underclassmen and need to be projected into the NBA on smaller sample sizes. Terrence Jones (four slots) joins Henson as the only other top 14 prospect where the sites disagree by four or more slots. In a sport where the draft is always filled with lottery busts, it's pretty amazing that both sites are in near agreement on most of the underclassman lottery players.

Maybe the game film really is clear and convincing. Maybe the NBA scouts across the league have yet to influence the process. Maybe the workouts matter a lot for both sites, and the whole landscape will change in the coming weeks. Whatever happens, I will continue to update you on the process, because the process fascinates me.

Stay tuned for more.

Brew Hoop Late Lottery NBA Draft Theater: Songs And Links Vol. 1

2012-05-11T14:33:50Z

Welcome to the NBA offseason, Milwaukee Bucks fans. It's almost too easy to engage in over-analysis of the NBA Draft. People who have never seen the full compliment of 2012 NBA Draft prospect play for an extended period of time (read: everyone except Draft Express, myself included) will not hesitate to project and pontificate on picks and players with aplomb. It can be....exhausting.

In the spirit of content diversification, Mitchell Maurer and I are prepared to take a left turn from the late-lottery each week and bring you our nominated songs and story links. You will have the opportunity to vote on your favorites, and we will develop bragging rights along the way. This is decidedly a non-Bucks series of offseason posts. The story links can be about anything, and the songs will introduce you to artists and songs we believe you haven't heard before. It's simple, really: we present you with fun stories and new songs, and you tell us who did the better job.

If you want more coverage on the NBA Draft Lottery (May 30), Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (4 p.m. CT, June 18), 2012 NBA Draft (June 28), 2012 NBA Free Agency (July 11), and NBA Summer League (July 13-22), we will certainly have you covered from a Bucks perspective and beyond. Don't worry. In the meantime, this is just a nice way to break up the monotonous regurgitation of Draft Express profiles and ESPN Mock Draft snippets you will see from around the web.

Volume 1 is beyond the jump.

BONUS MATERIAL: The two-part interview between Stephen Colbert and Maurice Sendak, entitled "Grim Colberty Tales with Maurice Sendak" is the last interview Sendak did before he passed away earlier this month. It's very much worth your time:

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

Here's Part 2:

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

Steve's Story Link: Bertrand Russell's 10 Commandments of Teaching

British philosopher, mathematician, and winner of the 1950 Nobel Prize in Literature, Bertrand Russell, wrote about many topics throughout his life -- including, but not limited to, metaphysics, the logic and the philosophy of mathematics, and epistemology -- but I think his 10 Commandments of Teaching from a 1951 article in The New York Times Magazine (reproduced via BrainPickings.org) is well worth checking out. Rule 1? "Do Not Feel Absolutely Certain Of Anything." Check out his other nine rules and let me know what you think in the comments.

Mitchell's Story Link: A Special Graduation Message To the Class of 2012 (NSFW)

Drew Magary is not a scientist, or a scholar, or an esteemed philanthropist. He is a husband and father who lives in Maryland, enjoys sports, has lingering body issues, tried several careers that didn't work out, and is relatively funny. He is the Everyman. If you haven't read his stuff before, I encourage you to do so, because he goes into things that we all deal with on some level but are sometimes too nervous, naive, or arrogant to recognize. He's like a text-only version of Louis C.K.

Annually since 2008, he writes a special address to the year's graduates, which serves as the polar opposite of any commencement speech you'll ever hear on a college campus. A sampling from 2008:

"You think you're gonna make a difference? You got some nerve, a--hole. You're just part of another class going through the same routine as the class before you. You're no different."

Inspiring, no? It certainly made me ready to remake the world when I graduated. But there is a lesson here that Magary glosses over, and it's one that people need to learn sooner rather than later: Too many people are going to college.

It's true! For decades now, college has been the be-all and end-all of anyone born in the USA. Go get a degree! Find your calling! Change the world. (That will be $45,000.) The last part is what we're dealing with now: too many graduates with too much debt and not enough jobs to go around.

I'm not opposed to giving everyone a shot at doing what they want. Shoot, I am a pristine example of the kid raised with the expectation of going to college whether or not it was the right option for them. But we're on top of a bubble that is just waiting to burst, like the housing market a few years ago. WHO ELSE IS EXCITED?

Steve's Song:

Mitchell's Song:

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Oklahoma City's James Harden Wins NBA Sixth Man Of The Year

2012-05-10T20:57:28Z

The NBA announced today that Oklahoma City guard James Harden won the league's Sixth Man of the Year award--predictably, in overwhelming fashion. Harden appeared in 62 games for the Oklahoma City Thunder this season (starting in just two), averaging 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. Harden was one of the NBA's best pure scorers, with a .660 TS% that ranked behind only dunkaholic Tyson Chandler. His playmaking came a long way as well, something very evident if you've watched the Thunder at all this postseason.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Mike Dunleavy played exceptionally well in his bench role, with per-game averages of 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Dunleavy wasn't too shabby a scorer himself, ranking 9th in TS%. Anybody who watched the Bucks more than a few times this season can attest to how well Dunleavy performed in his role, as a sort of hybrid scoring/creating forward. His chemistry with backup point guard Beno Udrih evolved quickly and stayed consistent.

However, Dunleavy went largely unrecognized in the Sixth Man voting, earning only two 3rd-place votes. Not being in the playoffs sure seems to have hurt his case: only New Orleans forward Carl Landry and Portland guard Jamal Crawford joined Dunleavy as vote-getters from lottery-bound teams.

There were lots of deserving candidates behind Harden: Philadelphia's Louis Williams, Dallas's Jason Terry, and Chicago's Taj Gibson, just to name a few. Mike Dunleavy's season might not have been high-profile enough to capture national attention, but it was undeniably successful. Every Bucks fan can attest to that.

Blazers Denied Permission To Interview John Hammond, Brandon Jennings Extension Talk, Luc Mbah a Moute and Carlos Delfino Recovering From Surgery

2012-05-09T04:08:09Z

SI.com: Bucks reportedly denied Blazers permission to interview John Hammond (via Behind the Buck Pass)
Putting an end to speculation about Portland's interest in Bucks GM John Hammond (for now), Sam Amick reports that the Bucks recently turned down the Blazers request to interview Hammond for their vacant GM position.

While nominally it would have been a lateral move, you can only assume Hammond would have been very interested in exploring a potential multi-year deal with a deep-pocketed organization that could pay him up to double his current salary. Instead, he'll finish up the final year of his contract in Milwaukee, with Herb Kohl having made clear last Friday that he's not currently interested in extending either Hammond or head coach Scott Skiles.

It's really not an ideal situation for anyone, which is precisely why there's been so much grumbling among fans. Still, Kohl appears intent on making due with what he has for now, even if he's primed the pump for wholesale changes a year from now (or sooner). Essentially the Bucks' braintrust has a year to prove itself to Kohl, with Skiles drawing the toughest task--having to manage a roster without the organization's long-term endorsement. Beyond that, the most obvious question is how the Bucks will balance Kohl's usual mandate of making the playoffs without being overly short-sighted (that's still a thing, right?). Making good decisions on that front is tough enough as is, but it's even more difficult when your GM and coach have to impress now in order to earn new contracts. Stay tuned...

Bucks.com: Luc Mbah a Moute Undergoes Successful Surgery
Thankfully no surprises here.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Luc Mbah a Moute (6-8, 230) underwent successful right knee surgery on Friday to address his patellar tendonitis, General Manager John Hammond announced today. The procedure was performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles. Mbah a Moute is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for training camp in October.

Same goes for free agent Carlos Delfino and his groin muscle injury, though the 29-year-old Argentine is more concerned at the moment with recovering in time for the London Olympics. Delfino faces a 6-8 week spell on the sideline, with the Olympics running from July 27 to August 12.

Bucks.com: Season's best games
Our man Alex Boeder counts down his top ten wins of the season (with video). Also at Bucks.com, Alex has another piece on former Bucks playing in the postseason.

Bucks.com: Pointed review
Truman Reed checks in with Brandon Jennings on a variety of subjects--the joys of playing with Monta Ellis, how Ersan Ilyasova might be padding his rebounding stats and how he might change things up his summer routine in 2012.

"As far as workouts. I’ll know how to pace myself," Jennings said. "During the lockout, I didn’t really know how to pace myself. I was going crazy with the workouts and playing everywhere.
"This summer will be great, just knowing that training camp starts Sept. 27."

OnMilwaukee.com: Bucks' Brandon Jennings on verge of payday or exit (via Bucksketball)
Speaking of Jennings, Jim Owczarski chimes in on his potential summer contract extension, including some interesting quotes from the end-of-season media sessions. For those worried about Jennings wanting to bolt for greener pastures, his comments last week might provide some reassurance--basically he sounds like every other guy on a rookie contract looking to get paid:

"I mean, why not?," he said. "If everything's right and my agent comes back and says this is what we should do, then I'm going to do it.

"At the end of the day, it's an NBA team. And if you ask any guy in the NBA 'Would you want to be the face of a franchise?' I'm sure 80-percent of them would say 'Yes' no matter where they're at."

So to recap: Brandon will stay if his agent says it's a good idea, which puts him in the same boat as every other NBA player who wants to be a) paid and b) given the keys to the car. Hey, as long as we don't have to hear people moan about Milwaukee winters driving players away...

And for better or worse, Jennings at this point is the face of the Bucks, even if recent arrival Monta Ellis has forced him to share the spotlight a bit. But being the face of the organization doesn't compel the Bucks to overpay him now. If he doesn't sign an extension this summer, he would only be a restricted free agent in 2013 and would need to risk accepting a one-year qualifying offer in order to hit unrestricted free agency in 2014. That typically only happens to injury risks (like Greg Oden) or in-between players that teams are hesitant to really commit to (see Nick Young). So based on the history of good-to-great players coming off rookie deals, you can be confident the Bucks will be able to retain Jennings if they really want to.

Speaking on the topic last Friday, Hammond quite logically characterized a Jennings extension this summer as nice but not required (though some valuable context was lost in the Twitter-blasting that followed). Hammond referred to it as a two-way street, and that's exactly what it is. If the Bucks are confident Jennings' price tag could rise next summer, then they'll certainly think longer and harder about making him a generous offer this summer, but even then they would have matching rights on any offer received in 2013. In other words, there's no doomsday scenario in the event nothing happens this summer.

Which raises the obvious follow up question: what will Brandon need to be paid? I certainly don't foresee Jennings' camp needing max money as suggested in the article, but they similarly don't have a burning need to get something locked up just for the sake of it. Security is nice, but you can guess Jennings and agent Bill Duffy will be working under the assumption that Jennings continues to improve and will want to price his next deal accordingly. For reference, Russell Westbrook's extension starting next year will likely be worth close to $80 million over five years, numbers that are certainly out of Jennings' league. Meanwhile, three-time all-star Rajon Rondo is owed an average of $12 million as part of his extension that runs through the next three years.

The Bucks would be wise to be cautious, though their challenge is figuring out what a cautious price tag actually is. As we've discussed in the comments, offering anything short of $8 million per season (Mike Conley money) likely won''t move the ball forward, and in my head I keep coming back to $10 million as a figure that might need to be reached to make Jennings and company sign on the dotted line. Maybe that's optimistic--after all, it's always easier to be rational in May. But it''s also a serious chunk of change for a player who is unlikely to ever be a top five player at his position, but it may well be the long-term minimum price of admission to keep Jennings in Milwaukee. And that's what makes this such a difficult decision. How tradeable would Jennings currently be if he made $10 million annually? Could the Bucks actually find a better way to spend $10 million than by giving Jennings a handsome extension?

The Bucks won't be alone in working through some of these issues over the summer. Aside from Jennings, the class of 2009 also includes Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Steph Curry, Jeff Teague, Tyreke Evans, and Darren Collison, though my guess is that at most one or two of them will actually sign extensions this summer. Lawson would seem like the best bet, and the first deal to be sign will likely play a crucial role in setting the market value for everyone else. You never know how much money the Nuggets might throw at Lawson, but for the Bucks' (and every other teams') sake, let's hope they don't break the bank.

Ersan Ilyasova, 2012 NBA Free Agency And How A Good Thing Becomes A Problem

2012-05-07T11:09:41Z

Life as a middling, small-market franchise in the NBA can be strange sometimes. Twenty-four-year-old forward Ersan Ilyasova put together a stunningly efficient and effective career-year during 2011-12 that would normally inspire unbridled enthusiasm and elation among the fan base, but in this case it really didn't. There is a good reason why, too. Without a superstar in sight and just two winning seasons in the past 11, the Milwaukee Bucks can't afford to make any mistakes if they hope to rise out of this rut.

That's why the timing of Ilyasova's sudden surge is a cruel joke for Bucks fans. In the odd tradition of other professional athletes around the world and throughout the FA ages, Ersan somehow managed to set career-highs in multiple categories during a "contract year." I refuse to cast doubt on his effort and motivation during any previous campaigns with the Bucks -- and for anyone to do so would be overly cynical and undeniably unfair to a young, developing player -- but the franchise is left to deal with the clear fact that Ilyasova executed his role as a spot-up shooter and garbage man far better during the last 28 of the season than he has in the other 241 games of his four-year NBA career.

Is the latest 28-game sample an appropriate justification for a contract that could push upwards of $8 million annually? There is an easy narrative here. You can expect to hear it for several months, and it goes something like this: "Ersan Ilyasova is a young NBA role player that finally hit is stride and there's nowhere to go from here but up! He's entering his prime, and if you just extrapolate the trend set in 2011-12 it's clear he's on his way to becoming a productive full-time starter and possible all-star."

In an unrestricted free agent market where talent goes to the highest bidder, that narrative will carry weight. Somebody is going to pay a fairly steep price ($7-9M annually) for Ilyasova. His interview with Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld back in February is evidence enough that the Bucks certainly won't be getting a discount:

"When I look at it I have to remember that it's a business," said Ilyasova. "Some teams overseas wanted to buyout my contract but I wanted to finish this season in the NBA. This is where I want to be right now, but we will see what happens in the future. Financially, whoever pays me more will be the team that I decide to sign with."

Let's examine where that leaves a team like the Milwaukee Bucks, and then discuss how high they should be willing to go when the bidding starts.

First off, I enjoy watching Ersan Ilyasova play NBA basketball. He has always been committed to doing the little things on the floor and he rarely steps beyond the bounds of his role as a tertiary offensive option, glass-crashing maniac and strong positional defender (read: defending by getting to the right position on the floor consistently).

However, if you haven't been frustrated by the Turk's lack of consistency over the past three NBA seasons, you clearly haven't been watching Bucks basketball very closely. As a streaky stretch four without any semblance of a post game or off-the-dribble moves, he's basically a binge and purge spot-up shooter from long-distance with the added ability to earn some easy baskets from offensive rebounds and cuts behind the rotating defense...not that there's anything wrong with that.

In other words, Ersan Ilyasova is some twisted hybrid of the best traits from Zaza Pachulia and Mehmet Okur. The most reasonable reaction to his spectacular post-all-star break run is simply this: good for him, but ultimately meh for the Bucks. He's had nice stretches of play before, and there's no doubt there are more nice spurts to come, but three years worth of evidence suggests Esranity was a passing internet craze, not a new reality that will reshape the franchise or the NBA universe at-large. Everyone sets career highs at some point, right?

GP	OREB%	DREB%	REB%	eFG%	TS%	Usage
First 32 Games (2011-12)	13.50%	23.70%	18.30%	46.20%	50.90%	18.40%
Last 28 Games (2011-12)	11.10%	21.90%	16.30%	60.40%	64.10%	17.90%
Career Totals	9.40%	21.10%	15.10%	49.50%	53.40%	20.20%

Ers couldn't have picked a better time to blowupchuate (it's a technical term, just trust me on this one) from a personal perspective. I would also swear allegiance to the highest bidder if I was in his position. If the magical three-point percentage fairy had visited him earlier in the year -- he shot an absurd 50.8 percent (32-63) from beyond the arc during the final 28 games, 38.8 percent (19-49) for the rest of the season and is a career 35.7 percent three-point shooter -- the "same old Ersan" thoughts might be permeating the halls of the organization at the moment.

Then again, something tells me timing has a profound effect on a franchise that is more lovesick for the playoffs than it is resolute in building a true contender. That same hubris is how a 30-year-old lifetime NBA backup named John Salmons made out with a five-year, $39M deal that is still impossible to justify based on the weight of evidence from his career. Is Ilyasova as undeserving as Salmons? No. Would a similar deal be too much money? Probably. Might the Bucks still pony up the cash now and ask questions later? Yup.

John Hammond did address Ersan's impending free agency at the Bucks' end-of-the-year press conference, and some encouraging points emerged from the discussion of that topic. Here's what Milwaukee's GM said:

"Ersan had a great season and you know one thing about Ersan is that you know the one thing you're going to get out of him every single night is effort. He can't help himself, he's going to play as hard as he possibly can every singly night and you can live with that for sure. What he did this year was he just shot the ball so much better than he has in the past, especially from three, and he turned out to be a real stretch power forward, and those guys are so valuable to have on your team, and that's what I think created some value for him around the league, too. It's not going to be easy for us to re-sign him and we know that. But he did have a great year and we're happy for him, and hopefully he'll be right back with us."

Hammond is exactly right to point out the spike in three-point shooting. After 267 NBA games, a statistical principle like regression to the mean should certainly guide any discussion about Ersan's worth, but when it comes to young players in the NBA (even if they have a fairly large sample of games to pull from) that rarely happens. Terms like "upside" and "potential" still dominate the discourse. I took a deeper look into the numbers -- it's kind of my thing, you see -- and I came away with several interesting nuggets about Ilyasova.

The biggest thing that pops out with regard to the distribution of Esran's shots is that things have changed dramatically since 2009-10 in terms of shot selection. There are two important trends worth noting:

Over the last three years, his percentage of total attempts taken at the rim have spiked from 30.3% in 09-10 and 29.0% in 10-11 to 44.6% in 11-12. At the same time, his percentage of shots from mid-range and three-point range have both dropped to a career low. More shots at the rim has led to a higher conversion rate overall. That makes perfect sense to me, and it's a good trend that bodes well for the future.
He shot so far above his career average from beyond the arc in 2011-12 that it's not something to count on in the future. Here how the numbers break down. In 2011-12 he hit 44.5% of his threes (good for No. 2 in the NBA!). For the rest of his career, the mark is 32.7% (well below the NBA average!). That's scary stuff, right? Right.

If you prefer visual representations, I've created some nifty visualizations of these trends with statistical support from NBA.com/stats that cover Ersan's last three seasons (it's in GIF form, so keep your eyes open for the year-to-year shift):

Could Ersan be as good as the best 28-game stretch of his career going forward? Of course it's possible, but the Bucks can't deal in pipe dreams at this point. They need to set a figure based on a more reasonable projection set by the weight of the evidence to project his future performance and then develop an absolute number for the bidding process. In my opinion, something like four-years, $25M would be a solid deal, while anything approaching the $8M mark annually would be best left for a shorter-term deal. If the bidding exceeds those figures, wish Ersan well with his new team.

Just for the sake of argument, let's also take a closer look at this rebounding numbers, which similarly jumped this past season. Ersan is more crafty than strong and more instinctive than athletic on the glass, and he tends to have a bigger impact on offensive rebounding that he does when it comes to keeping opponents off the boards. Looking at the team rebounding percentages when he is on/off the court, Ilyasova has consistently improved Milwaukee's offensive rebound rate when on the floor, and always raised it to a mark that would be the equivalent of a top-10 team in the NBA.

Unfortunately, he's had trouble making the same impact when it comes to keeping counterparts away from the rim on the other end. When Andrew Bogut was around, the Bucks always finished in the top-10 in defensive rebound rate (ie-keeping opponents off the glass), but this past season they ranked 25th overall and were by far the worst in the league with Ersan on the floor -- the Golden State Warriors finished last with a DRR of 69.14%, while the Bucks only managed a pitiful 66.6% rate (!) with Ilyasova on the floor.

To highlight his impact on the offensive glass but ignore the serious dip in team defensive rebounding (which actually yields an even higher percentage of offensive rebounds to opponents) would be mistake. Rebounding has always been a team function, and while Ilyasova benefited from Bogut's absence by getting to serve as the designated rebound grabber more often, the actual impact at the team level basically balanced out to nothing. If the Bucks had another center things may have been different, but they also would likely have been different with regards to the raw number of boards Ersan grabbed himself, as well. Just something to think about.

Here is how he impacted team rebounding on both ends and in total for the past three seasons:

		On Court	Off Court	Change
2009-10	Offensive Rebounding	29.20%	28.40%	0.80%
	Defensive Rebounding	73.60%	75.00%	-1.40%
	Total Rebounding	51.40%	51.70%	-0.30%
2010-11	Offensive Rebounding	28.50%	27.10%	1.40%
	Defensive Rebounding	72.80%	72.10%	0.70%
	Total Rebounding	50.70%	49.60%	1.10%
2011-12	Offensive Rebounding	32.00%	28.00%	4.00%
	Defensive Rebounding	66.60%	71.00%	-4.30%
	Total Rebounding	49.30%	49.50%	-0.20%

And finally, here's a look at his individual production relative to an average NBA PF for the past three years, broken down by month (excluding months with less five or less games, due to sample size issues):

Even if he gets overpaid, Ersan is very unlikely to fall off the map like John Salmons. That makes the whole situation less risky, but the fundamental principles guiding the process are still the same. The Bucks should be hunting for players that create surplus value and defaulting to a developmental prospect when no such veteran can be acquired or signed. Life without Ersan would simply mean a lot more of Ekpe Udoh, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Jon Leuer. Is that really a bad thing?

In sum, I wouldn't be incredibly upset if the Bucks signed Ilyasova to a deal that borders on $6M in annual salary, but things start getting dicey around the $8M mark (especially if it went for 4+ years). After a strong finish to the season, Ersan's best moments are the freshest in our minds, but that doesn't mean they are the most likely things to define his future in the NBA. Keep that in mind when the bidding begins.

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.

*PS- Are you up-to-date on our Podcasts? If not, take a listen using the embedded player below:

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Milwaukee Bucks End-Of-Season Press Conference: John Hammond And Herb Kohl Quotes And Notes

2012-05-05T04:49:45Z

On Friday morning, Milwaukee Bucks owner Sen. Herb Kohl and general manager John Hammond addressed media at the team's training center in St. Francis regarding a number of compelling issues.

Topics of conversation ranged from the contract status of head coach Scott Skiles, to a potential contract extension for Brandon Jennings, to the quest for a "quality big man," to the need for a new basketball arena in the near future. In other words, pretty much everything was on the table, leaving fans plenty of material to work through as we enter what could be another very busy summer.

On the other side of the jump I've assembled a brief summary of the most important points, and all the most relevant quotes. Moreover, we have the full 55 minutes of video and audio for you to check out for yourself. Let's get to it...

The press conference last nearly an hour and can be listened to at WSSP or viewed on the Journal-Sentinel's youtube page, so if you have time to burn it's worth investing part of your weekend. Bucks.com also has a few minutes of the high points, as well as a separate video on the new arena discussion specifically.

Video can be viewed below, with highlights transcribed with our commentary below.

Hammond On Skiles Returning: "In regards to Scott and that situation, we're very excited to have him back as coach. He's a quality coach and I think one of the better coaches in the NBA, one of the top coaches in NBA, and to have someone of that caliber coaching our team is the best decision for us. He's excited and I know he's ready to go to work and is anticipating a good season next year."

Kohl On Skiles: "We had productive discussions when the season ended to make sure that we are all on same path. They were very spirited discussions and everybody had a chance to express themselves in a very open way...Scott is eager and excited to come back. To improve upon where we are now, because we didn't get to the playoffs so we're not satisfied. If you're not in the playoffs, at a minimum, you can't be satisfied. We're not satisfied."

Kohl On Hammond And Skiles: "This is a results kind of a business that we're in, and we measure ourselves by results, and we were supposed to be in the playoffs. We didn't get there. We should still be playing. We are not still playing. If you want to know whether of not we are happy, no. We are not happy. Why should we be happy?"

Kohl On The Contract Status Of Hammond And Skiles: "John [Hammond] is contracted to be with us this coming year. [Scott] Skiles is contracted to be with us this coming year. We are looking for good and great results, and a long and happy relationship. It's on that basis that we are going forward... We all work from day-to-day and week-to-week and year-to-year, and we all understand that's life. John is a very high-quality executive in the NBA. Scott is a high-quality coach in the NBA. So I'm very grateful to have both of them with us." He also confirmed there are no talk about a contract extension for Skiles or Hammond at this point.

Steve's note: Hammond's body language and thousand-yard stare are kind of fun to watch. It''s likely just the by-product of his focus on Kohl's words, but it's fun nevertheless.

Frank's note: It's all fine and good for Kohl to say he'll let Hammond and Skiles earn it this year, but I also worry what it says about the franchise when the owner is on-board with an incentive system that basically focuses purely on making the playoffs in 12/13. In most scenarios, an owner would have to be concerned that a GM on a one-year contract would be willing to mortgage the future to save the present, but--and here's what feels frustrating if you're a fan of this team--you get the feeling that Kohl is on board with that. I'm not suggesting the Bucks are going to ship out all their young players and picks for 32-year-olds, but clearly it has an effect.

Hammond On The Direction Of The Team: "I look at this past season and I don't look at our team and say it's broke [sic]. We have good players. Do we have some holes that need to be filled? No question about that, we do. But we went through a tough season this past year. We started out the season 2-1, we headed out West and played at Denver and lost that game. We were 2-2. Andrew Bogut has a personal issue and that he had to take care of, he misses the next five games. He came back and played eight, I think, and then was out for the remained of the season. That was a tough blow...you look around the NBA, ala the Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls without Derrick Rose: it's not easy. For the Milwaukee Bucks to play without Andrew Bogut? Not easy."

"And we regrouped. We found a way to kinda be competitive again, headed in the right direction. We made the trade, and that helped us. I think we ended up the second half of the season 18-15, and you know it's a conversation...if we had that team the entire season, the team we played with the second half of the year, would we have been a +.500 team? Could we have been a winning team? Could we have made the playoffs? A lot of would haves, could haves, should haves, but I think that's a possibility for us. So when you talk about what we're going to do, I think continuity is an issue for us."

Frank's note: How you interpret this line of reasoning is a good litmus test for where you stand on the Bucks and Hammond, because this one hit all the major pain points that many people have over the current regime. You can certainly question the logic behind basically equating Bogut's loss with other teams losing superstars, and beyond wonder why Hammond would make that kind of statement about a guy who was traded.

Moreover, the talk about getting back over .500 and into the playoffs, and the importance of having more continuity, will likely cause a lot of heartburn for anyone who wants the team to eschew its short-term focus and look longer term--ie developing young talent and talking (however vaguely) about contending for a championship. Let's make no mistake: the Bucks clearly believe in an incremental approach to building a team--think Memphis or Indiana--and they're not even entertaining contention right now. I can't recall anyone referencing championships or even championship contention yesterday, though maybe I'm missing something. Does that make them short-sighted, realistic...or both?

Hammond On The Offseason Plan: "We sure don't have any idea what's going to happen, but each year that we've been here we've made a major change at the draft, a major trade, and come back with significant amount of new players each season. We are hoping that doesn't occur. We have no idea what could occur, something could be the right move for us...but I think continuity is important for us... we're bringing back a team that we think can be competitive. We know it can't come back as-is. We've got a draft pick...we have a starting point, we just need to get better."

Kohl On Next Season: "When you look at our team today, if you imagine this team coming back next year with a dominant inside player, you'd feel really good about where we are. At least I would. If you look at this team with say Bogut coming back or mention any others you might think about, you'd say all the other pieces are pretty well in place to be not just a playoff team, but maybe a very good team. The 1-2-3-4 positions (PG, SG, SF, PF) are pretty well covered, and we have a good bench...We're not playing right now (in the NBA Playoffs), so it's certainly not good enough. But when you look to where we want to improve for next year, we want a real quality big man. This is not to downplay the big people we have right now. There's some real promise there. Ekpe has a very good future. Larry Sanders showed that he has a huge upside, so we feel pretty good about where we are. But we know where we need to get better and I anticipate we will get better."

Steve's note: Pro Tip: It's probably not a great idea to mention that a player like Andrew Bogut is your biggest need in the offseason after you just willingly traded him away at the deadline.

Hammond On The Trade For Monta Ellis: "Obviously we changed our team when we traded Andrew, and we changed our team in adding Monta [Ellis] in particular. We've always had questions since we've been here about how we are going to score the ball. That's been our Achilles, and that's no longer our Achilles..."

Steve's note: Hammond relayed a story from Carlos Delfino from his time with the Detroit Pistons, where he was taught by veterans like Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups to push his offense of counterpart towards Ben Wallace if all else failed. Similarly, Delfino told Hammond he coached up young players for the Bucks by telling them to push their man towards Andrew Bogut. In other news, I miss Andrew Bogut.

Frank's note: It definitely was a bit strange that Bogut was mentioned as much as he was and in the way he was during the presser, both by Kohl and Hammond. Almost seemed like they were subtly implying they didn't want to trade him in the first place.

Hammond On The Identity Of The Team"We can find a way to defend. Maybe it's going to take a little more energy. Maybe it's going to take a little more effort...The two factors, you say we are not as good of a defending team and we are not as good of the rebounding team. But when you start talking about those points, what's the most important aspect in being a good defensive team rebounding team? Well you can say we need the size, but most of all what you need is the ultimate effort and guys that say 'you know what, I'm committed to defending and I'm committing to rebounding the ball.' So we have to have that kind of mindset."

Steve's note: That sounds a whole lot the like Bucks are going to be competitive bidders for Ersan Ilyasova's services this summer...he's definitely one of those effort guys. Also, the company tag line is apparently "everybody needs to do their job just a little bit better." Hammond said it four of five times around the 13-minute mark.

Hammond Responding To Why The Bucks Will Be Different Than The Golden State Warriors With Two Small Guards And No Legitimate Center: "Well, every team is a little different. We are not exacty the Golden State Warriors. They are not exactly us. There are some undersized teams that are effective in the NBA...of the 30 teams in the NBA there are maybe 13 centers...We always want size in this league, but if we don't have it, and there are a lot of teams that don't have it, you can find a way to survive. You just have to be a little better and a little more committed, and we are going to try to add some size along the way, too."

Steve's note: Hammond mentions the Atlanta Hawks normally starting Al Horford at center and the Utah Jazz going with Al Jefferson as examples of teams getting away from the traditional center model. I am not impressed, considering the Bucks have neither of those players.

Frank's note: A very valid question from WSSP's Sparky Fifer, and there was definitely some hand-waving here. See Monta discussion below.

On Monta Ellis' Position: He's a little bigger than you think...He's a legitimate 6-foot-3, so he's not a little as you'd think. But he's a two-guard [SG], first and foremost, because he can score the ball at the rate that he can. He's just an under-sized two."

Steve's note: I agree, Monta can "score the ball at the rate that he can." I disagree that the noted rate qualifies him as a SG. Either that, or there are TONS of shooting guards out there. Hammond specifically quoted Ellis' 20 ppg scoring average as evidence. Excuse me while I light myself on fire (again).

Frank's note: It'd be silly for Hammond to undersell anyone on his roster at this point, so I'll hold off on assuming the Bucks are married to Monta. But certainly nothing discussed today would suggest the Bucks are desperately shopping him--which begs the question, what would the Bucks accept in a trade for Ellis?

Kohl On Working For A New Arena In Milwaukee: "We think it's important for our community, for our state, for Milwaukee to be represented in the NBA. Now in order for that to continue, we have to have a new facility. There isn't anybody that doesn't recognize that and understand that it has to happen. And we are no longer talking about it as some point in the future, we are talking about beginning to make plans to get it done. We've had some conversations with the NBA about it, we are looking to extend our lease for a relatively short time at the Bradley Center...so what we are looking to do is sign a rather short-term extension while we get busy right now on planning for a new facility. So we are not just talking about it, we are actively working on it and we'll get into high gear, I hope, soon on trying to accomplish our goal."

Kohl On If He Will Make a Personal Financial Commitment To A New Arena: "I'm sure I will at some time."

"Recognizing how hard it is to get financing for any sports facility in America today, nevertheless I believe we are going to have a shot at getting it done. The maximum effort will be put forth not just by the Bucks, because we couldn't get it done alone, but by the business sector and the public sector and hopefully the media all recognizing that it's not a wish thing, it's a must thing for us to continue as a member in the NBA."

Steve's note: Pretty good news here. Kohl's potential commitment of cash would do wonders in any public push for a new arena, and the distinguished Senator sounded as firm as ever about wanting to keep NBA basketball in Milwaukee, WI, so it all sounds encouraging at this point.

Kohl On Whether He Wants An Arena Built Before He Sells The Team: "Well, I don't know how long I'll own the team. You know it's not forever. So I don't coincide one with the other. But it's important to get it done and obviously you'd like to get it done as soon as you can, but that's not going to be tomorrow."

Frank's note: Keep in mind that a huge chunk of Kohl's personal wealth is tied up in the value of the team itself, so in that sense selling the team would enable him to make a much larger contribution. Similarly, getting a new arena lined up would make the team much more valuable to any suitors who want to keep the team local--both in terms of economic value as well as getting a huge hassle/uncertainty out of the way. So there's an interesting parallel path that could emerge--might Kohl set up a scenario where he sells the team (or a large part of it) on the condition that he and local business/public dollars are also pitching in for a new arena. It will not doubt be a tough chess game to pull off, but might be the most appealing to everyone involved.

Kohl On Whether The NBA Is Offering Support: "The league is cooperating with us. They are happy to see that we want to make the effort. They support that. They (wanted) to see us get it done. And I think that's good and sufficient. They don't oppose our desire and wish to make the effort to stay in Milwaukee...They probably would say, if they were sitting here, that without a new facility, Milwaukee's chances of remaining a part of the NBA are not robust. So yeah, we are on the same page with the NBA."

Hammond On The No. 12 Pick: "You look at a late-lottery pick...for the most part what you're hoping is to get a strong rotation player at a pick like that."

Steve's note: That's a very reasonable way to assess their draft slot. I still think Hammond has a good handle on this aspect of the job, Joe Alexander notwithstanding.

Frank's note: He also talked about multiple tiers in the draft, with a 2-6 pick range after the first overall pick and then the next tier running perhaps as far down as 18. He said they'd be open to trading down in that scenario, but then also gave lip service to trading up as well. Basically, anything can happen.

Hammond On Whether The Bucks Have Made Decisions On Any FAs NOT Coming Back: "We're talking about continuity and for the most part our roster is in tact. We have a couple free agents in Ersan and Carlos, but we have an interest in both those guys and both those guys returning of course. We've done our evaluations, we think we know what our strengths are and what our weaknesses are and what we need to address."

Frank's note: No mention of Kwame! SHOCK, HORROR! I actually wouldn't mind bringing back Kwame as a rotation guy to throw out there against bigger teams, but it'd have to be at a major discount to the nearly $7 million the Warriors gave him last year. The good news is that the Warriors won't be bidding up the price of every center this offseason--aside from actually signing Brown, see their role in bidding up Tyson Chandler and giving DeAndre Jordan his big offer sheet.

Hammond On A Potential Brandon Jennings Extension This Summer: "It's something that we'll look at and we'll explore, and it's kind of going to have to be a bit of a two-way street so to speak. Something that's important to them and important to us, and I think that it is. But it's not something that we have to do, and the one thing we don't want to do [is put] ourselves in a position where we have to do things...where I think we're negotiating and working out of a position of weakness. So we don't have to do anything right now in regard to our roster. We want to be smart, we want to be wise and we want to put ourselves in position where when we look at our roster, we can say that players on our roster are good players, players we want to have here, and players that we consider to be assets and that other teams around the NBA consider to be assets. And contracts are part of that."

Steve's note: Hammond is playing his cards right at this point in the process, and basically said he doesn't feel like they need to overpay to keep Jennings, so that's a good thing. He's a tough player to value and monetize, so the process of initial negotiations should be interesting. Just make sure Jennings' team doesn't read Hammond's comments about Monta and his value because he's a 20 ppg scorer...

Hammond on Ersan Ilyasova: "Ersan had a great season and you know one thing about Ersan is that you know the one thing you're going to get out of him every single night is effort. He can't help himself, he's going to play as hard as he possibly can every singly night and you can live with that for sure. What he did this year was he just shot the ball so much better than he has in the past, especially from three, and he turned out to be a real stretch power forward, and those guys are so valuable to have on your team, and that's what I think created some value for him around the league, too. It's not going to be easy for us to re-sign him and we know that. But he did have a great year and we're happy for him, and hopefully he'll be right back with us."

Steve's note: It's nice that Hammond specifically mentioned Ersan's spike in three-point shooting (I will have a more thorough breakdown of Ersan's big season on Monday), so maybe the team will set a reasonable high point in negotiations this summer. Here's to hoping.

On Whether They'd Amnesty Gooden To Bring Back Ersan: "No. I don't think we'd look at that."

Steve's note: Do you know who had the second-highest PER for the Bucks in 2011-12? That's right, Drew Gooden. Take that, haters!

Frank's note: Not surprising in the sense that if they didn't amnesty him last year, then they probably wouldn't do it after a season in which he played about as well as could be expected (insert disclaimer here). That said, I'm still hoping they look for ways to dump him via trade, since that might actually be vaguely possible at this point. Because signing Ersan to a new deal over the mid-level AND owing Gooden $20 million? Not my idea of roster optimization.

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Ersan Ilyasova Robbed Of NBA's Most Improved Player Award By Orlando's Ryan Anderson

2012-05-04T15:45:01Z

The Orlando Magic scheduled a press conference 1:30 pm EST today. As CBSSports's Matt Moore puts it, this time of year press conferences typically mean "a coach hiring, a coach firing, or an award." For the Magic, it's the third option, as Brian Schmidt of the Orlando Sentinel reports that Magic PF Ryan Anderson will be named the NBA's Most Improved Player for the 2011-2012 season.

In kind and simple terms, this is totally bogus.

From last season, Ryan Anderson improved his scoring by 5.5 points and his rebounding by 2.2. Ersan's scoring improved 3.3 points and he grabbed 2.8 more rebounds. The difference? I've used Anderson's per-game numbers and Ersan's numbers per-36 minutes. Because you know what stat Ryan Anderson improved the most in?

Minutes per game.

Ersan was robbed.

Update: Ersan Ilyasova finished second in voting. The final tally for the award breaks down as follows, according to NBA.com (first-place votes in parentheses): Ryan Anderson - 260 points (33), Ersan Ilyasova - 159 points (21), Nikola Pekovic - 104 points (10).

The official voting results haven't been released yet (I expect they'll become available around the time of Orlando's press conference), but at this point I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ersan finish third at best, behind Anderson and transient New York point guard Jeremy Lin (Update: I was too harsh here, admittedly. Lin finished 6th in voting).

Ryan Anderson is a very good player, there is no doubt about that. His superb three-point shooting and strong rebounding make him one of the NBA's best stretch-4s, a perfect companion for Dwight Howard and his band of merry shooters. But Ersan improved to the point where he was, arguably, the best stretch-4 in the NBA this season. He ranked 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting after a stunning 15.7 percentage point increase this year; Anderson shot an identical 39.3% this season and last. Anderson did improve his ORB% from 10.8 to 13.0, but his overall rebounding percentage actually fell. Ersan added almost five points to his ORB% and improved his TRB% from 14.1 to 17.6. Ersan was a better rebounder than Ryan Anderson this season, and he was worse than Anderson last season. The process of making that change is typically referred to as improving.

It sure seems like the voters fell victim to their own blindness, or laziness, or whatever you want to call it. Anderson's production jumped this season, no doubt about it. But to not recognize that such a jump is virtually assured when playing ten more minutes per game is just foolish. You might even call it reckless, if you consider these awards important (I do). But once again, that simple fact, that basic concept, that singular anomaly that every person learns when he or she starts delving deeper into statistical analysis, escaped the brilliant men and women voting for this award. And that sucks.

There is a deeper possibility, I suppose. Perhaps the voters are actually so transcendent in their understanding of the NBA that they chose to discount Ilyasova's leap because it came in a contract year! If so, we'll have to wait until next season to determine if their foresight deserves applause. Touche, voters.

Hey, at least the Bucks won't have to negotiate with Ersan while he polishes his trophy though, huh?

Update #2: I didn't even notice this when glancing through the voting results earlier, but as Sports Illustrated points out, Andrew Bogut received one first-place vote. Bogut played in only 12 games and most of his production was below even his career levels, but cool!?!

Re-Update: The NBA recounted the MIP votes and discovered that one first-place vote for Andrew Bynum accidentally went to Bogut. Things now make sense again.

Podcast: Assessing The Milwaukee Bucks After The 2011-2012 NBA Season (Part 1)

2012-05-04T12:44:29Z

Are you one of those Milwaukee Bucks fans that is secretly wishing the team would have made the 2012 NBA Playoffs now that the Chicago Bulls lost star point guard Derrick Rose to an ACL tear? If so, Steve von Horn has something to say to you right off the bat in this edition of the Brew Hoop podcast. Frank Madden and Steve discuss the parallel universe where the Bucks would have been the No. 8 seed, but the real analysis goes far beyond that basic hypothetical. From how the harsher, gone fishin' reality has shaped the offseason plans of John Hammond and company to where things went wrong and how to make them better, this podcast touches on a bit of everything before we go deeper on each aspect throughout the summer.

Frank had to deal with some bandwidth issues at his hotel in California, so the voice quality is a bit more variable than you might be used to, but his analysis is as clear as ever so don't be too concerned. As always, you can listen or subscribe on iTunes, click here to Listen to this episode on your smartphone or listen on your computer by using the flash player below: