Bring On The Cats

K-State Slate: 2.10.12

2012-02-10T13:02:24Z

K-State Basketball

Shane Southwell hasn't had the breakout season we had been hoping to see, struggling to adjust to what was supposed to be an increased role this year.

Once again, Peter has an excellent preview of this Saturday's K-State/Texas showdown.

Frank Martin sent a letter to K-State students yesterday, acknowledging that he needs to cut down on the profanity on the sidelines, and asking that they do the same in the stands. After attending four games this season, I can honestly say I had no idea what this letter was referencing until I asked some people.

Big 12 Conference

It sounds like West Virginia and the Big East have reached a settlement. West Virginia will pay $11 million to the conference, while the Big 12 will kick in the other $9 million, probably to be paid out of Texas A&M's and Missouri's liquidated damages. Meanwhile, the Big 12 will release its 2012 football schedule today.

College Football Playoff

Dr. Saturday has a few suggestions for the proposed four-team college-football playoff.

K-State Slate: 2.9.12

2012-02-09T13:07:39Z

K-State Football

K-State has promoted Tom Hayes to defensive coordinator. Mike Cox, who was part of Washington's debacle of a defensive effort against Baylor in the Alamo Bowl, will be hired as a linebackers coach.

K-State Women's Basketball

Texas A&M got revenge and then some for K-State's upset win in Manhattan earlier this year. The Aggies beat K-State by 31 in College Station last night.

#RonP4Jags

The Jacksonville Jaguars hired Ron Prince as an assistant line coach.

Big 12 Basketball

KU overwhelmed Baylor with a 37-7 run that spanned the middle 20 minutes of the game and rolled to a 68-54 win over the Bears in Waco.

College Football Playoff

SB Nation's Jason Kirk takes a look at the Big 10's four-team playoff proposal and concludes that it's good for everybody.

K-State Slate: 2.8.12

2012-02-08T13:06:19Z

K-State Basketball

In one of the ugliest and least entertaining basketball games I've ever seen, K-State beat Texas Tech, 65-46. Between the poor shooting (the teams had six field goals apiece in the first half, Tech had five in the second), inability to hold on to the ball (the teams combined for 36 turnovers, with Tech accounting for 22 of those) and the look-at-me officiating (John Higgins FTW), all involved did everything in their power to make sure the game had no flow at all.

Tech threw a triangle-and-two defense at K-State in the first half and the Wildcats did not respond well. Fortunately, Tech responded even more poorly to K-State's pressuring man defense.

Jamar Samuels won't be sad that there are no more games with Texas Tech. His season stats against the Red Raiders are nine fouls and one point.

K-State Football

Rob Cassidy tweeted last night that K-State will promote Tom Hayes to defensive coordinator to replace Chris Cosh.

Big 12 Basketball

Oklahoma State got a 69-67 win in Stillwater over Iowa State behind the late-game heroics of Le'Bryan Nash. K-State is now just one game behind the Cyclones in the conference standings.

Open Game Thread: K-State vs. Texas Tech

2012-02-08T00:31:32Z

Who: K-State vs. Texas Tech

When: February 7, 2012 | 7:00 p.m.

Where: Manhattan, Kan. | Bramlage Coliseum (12,528)

Media: Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court | 1350 KMAN

K-State looks to sweep the season series and send Texas Tech to 0-11 in conference play before embarking on a brutal stretch of games, starting Saturday in Austin.

Go Cats!

RPI WATCH: 2/7/12

2012-02-08T00:01:17Z

writeup coming soon

Associated Press Ranking = 34

ESPN/USA Today Ranking = NR

Overall Record = 16-6

Big 12 Record = 5-5

Top 50 Record = 3-4

RPI = 50

SOS = 68

Signature Wins (RPI 1-30) = Missouri

Quality Wins (RPI 31-100) = Virginia Tech, Alabama, Long Beach State, Texas

Bad Losses (RPI 101 or greater) = none

Charleston Southern (14-9, 8-5 Big South) | RPI = 143: Loss at Coastal Carolina (58-71)
Loyola Chicago (5-18, 0-13 Horizon) | RPI = 307: Loss to Youngstown State (63-80)
UMES (5-16, 2-6 MEAC) | RPI = 317: Win over Howard (78-65)
George Washington (8-15, 3-5 A-10) | RPI = 190: Loss to Massachusetts (75-86)
Virginia Tech (13-10, 2-6 ACC) | RPI = 92: Win over Clemson (67-65)
West Virginia (16-8, 6-5 Big East) | RPI = 25: Win at Providence (87-84 in overtime)
North Florida (12-13, 6-6 A-Sun) | RPI = 167: Win over Stetson (99-96)
Alabama (15-7, 4-4 SEC) | RPI = 31: Win over Mississippi (69-67 in double overtime)
Southern Illinois (8-16, 5-8 MVC) | RPI = 228: Win over Evansville (53-52)
UTEP (10-13, 3-6 C-USA) | RPI = 186: Loss to UAB (60-61)
Long Beach State (17-6, 10-0 Big West) | RPI = 36: Win over Cal State Northridge (75-67)
Howard (5-18, 2-8 MEAC) | RPI = 311: Loss at UMES (65-78)
No. 7 Kansas (18-5, 8-2 Big 12) | RPI = 9: Loss at No. 4 Missouri (71-74)
No. 4 Missouri (21-2, 8-2 Big 12) | RPI = 11: Win over No. 8 Kansas (74-71)
No. 6 Baylor (21-2, 8-2 Big 12) | RPI = 2: Win at Oklahoma State (64-60)
Oklahoma (13-9, 3-7 Big 12) | RPI = 82: Loss to Iowa State (70-77)
Texas (14-9, 4-6 Big 12) | RPI = 66: Win over Texas Tech (74-57)
Oklahoma State (11-12, 4-6 Big 12) | RPI = 113: Loss to No. 6 Baylor (60-64)
Texas Tech (7-15, 0-10 Big 12) | RPI = 233: Loss at Texas (57-74)
Iowa State (17-6, 7-3 Big 12) | RPI = 35: Win at Oklahoma (77-70)
Texas A&M (12-10, 3-7 Big 12) | RPI = 145: Loss at Kansas State (53-64)

Texas Tech Preview: We meet again, Bubble

2012-02-07T21:00:47Z

A mere four and half weeks ago, K-State seemed like nearly a lock to make the NCAA tournament. Now, after two debacles against Oklahoma and a hard-to-watch second half at Iowa State, mixed in with some uninspiring wins, the ‘Cats find themselves 5-5 in conference play and where all Frank teams seem to be in early February: squarely on the bubble.

The good news is the Wildcats still appear to be in by most measures, as 55 of 56 predictors in The Bracket Project include KSU (screw you, Daily Bracket). The RPI of 47 is a little concerning, but at least the win over Missouri looks really, really good right now.

Those of you who read my blog last year may recall that I first began my series of NCAA bubble posts when K-State was 2-5 in conference and seemed to be in quite a precarious position. From that point forward, KSU won 8 of 9 to close out the regular season, so really I'm just doing my part to try to make that happen again.

At this point, it still would seem if K-State merely takes care of business, it should be in without a problem. That means beating everyone other than Kansas at home, and getting wins in Austin and College Station to finish Big 12 play 10-8.

Drop to 9-9 and things could get a little dicey, though I think KSU would probably still be OK. Similar to last season, I think 9-9 with a win against one of the top three (meaning another bad loss) would actually be better than 9-9 without one.

You have to figure even 9-9 would get K-State no worse than 6th (probably 5th) place and a Wednesday bye in the conference tourney before a somewhat difficult matchup against Iowa State or an extremely difficult game against one of the top three. I'm not really sure if that would be a must-win, but I'd rather not find out.

For a quick preview of Texas Tech, click the jump.

I have nothing to add from my assessment of Texas Tech the last time because this is a terrible, terrible basketball team that just might go winless in conference play this season. However, there are a few things I would like to see to feel better about Kansas State moving forward.

First of all, Rodney McGruder must get back on track after some subpar performances. I'm not saying he needs to drop 30 points again, but it would sure be nice to see him make more than one 3-pointer for the first time since the Texas game three weeks ago.

To continue the shooting meme, this may seem harsh, but I need a little more proof that Will Spradling has really broken out of his slump. His perimeter shot is crucial to the success of this offense and keeping defenses honest.

If Will and Rod aren't shooting well, things are going to be a lot tougher for Thomas Gipson and Jamar Samuels inside. Gipson especially needs a little bit of space created by at least a threat of outside shooting.

This is one of those games where K-State can really only make its tournament status worse, not better, but after this things are going to get real in a hurry. A crucial four-game stretch beginning with a very winnable game at Texas awaits Saturday, and that of course is followed by the three-game gauntlet against the top trio of conference teams in the nation.

Those final three games of the season against Iowa State, A&M and Oklahoma State are going to be a lot more fun to watch, and probably a lot easier to play, if the ‘Cats aren't fighting for their tournament lives.

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.07.12

2012-02-07T18:00:38Z

Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.6.2012)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
#6 Baylor Bears	8	2	21	2
#4 Missouri Tigers	8	2	21	2
#7 Kansas Jayhawks	8	2	18	5
Iowa State Cyclones	7	3	17	6
Kansas State Wildcats	5	5	16	6
Texas Longhorns	4	6	14	9
Oklahoma State Cowboys	4	6	11	12
Oklahoma Sooners	3	7	13	9
Texas A&M Aggies	3	7	12	10
Texas Tech Red Raiders	0	10	7	15

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K-State secured a crucial win to stay ahead of the four-pack that's ~~hot~~ cold on its heels.

But with a two-game gap between it and Iowa State, and a three-game deficit out of first place in a wide-open conference race, it's really hard not to wonder: What if?

What if we had won at least one of those games against an otherwise-horrible-in-Big-12-play Oklahoma team?

What if we had held on to that lead against Baylor? At Iowa State? Where would the Cats be in the discussion now?

Whether it be Bears, Jayhawks or Tigers who hoist the trophy at the end of this season, "what if" probably will torment us all for some time to come ... especially if we don't even Dance because of it.

	Seed*	Record*	Tourney*	RPI	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Streak	Best Win**	Worst Loss**	Coach
Kansas	1	16-2	NCAA	9	3	3	L-1	Baylor	Davidson	Bill Self
Missouri	2	15-3	NCAA	11	7	8	W-3	Baylor	Oklahoma State	Frank Haith
Baylor	3	13-5	NCAA	2	11	12	W-4	San Diego State	Missouri	Scott Drew
Iowa State	4	11-7	NCAA	35	36	36	W-3	Kansas	Drake	Fred Hoiberg
Texas	5	11-7	Bubble	66	20	21	W-1	Temple	Oregon State	Rick Barnes
Kansas State	6	9-9	Bubble	50	23	23	W-1	Missouri	Oklahoma (2)	Frank Martin
Oklahoma	7	6-12	NIT	82	87	77	L-2	Oral Roberts	Texas A&M	Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State	8	5-13	None	113	99	95	L-1	Missouri	Texas A&M	Travis Ford
Texas A&M	9	4-14	None	145	112	112	L-2	Oklahoma	Rice	Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech	10	0-18	None	233	246	224	L-10	North Texas	DePaul	Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

It's Iowa State's world, people, and we're all just living in it.

Despite its failure to accurately predict a Cyclones win in Norman, OUTLOOK persists in expecting four more losses for the season's biggest dark horse. I'm not so sure. This has the look of a legit team to me.

Meanwhile, K-State is one RPI spot away from qualifying as a top-50 win for its opponents who have emerged victorious from battle with us. Texas Tech won't help matters, either. This team needs more quality wins.

How bad is it? We're no longer considered Oklahoma's best win(s). Oral Roberts is. That's simply embarrassing.

The more I crunch the numbers, the more crucial Saturday's game in Austin seems to me. Flip that one projected loss to a win, and K-State would secure a double tiebreaker with Texas for fifth place (and the fifth NCAA bid).

Yes, it appears a win in ~~The Drum~~ Bramlage South would go a long way toward assuaging our worries about not finishing in the top half of the conference or reaching the NCAA Tournament. It certainly gives us margin for error.

GAMER: Now has Kansas State winning at Texas A&M.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

So close to an .800 overall pick percentage, I can taste it. Drat.

I told you Oklahoma wouldn't pull that game off. Stupid computers.

OUTLOOK likes the roadies this week, with only Texas Tech (duh!) predicted to fall away from home.

Obviously, two games already are in the books, so my odds of predicting this increase knowing that, but I think at least one of those predicted road winners will be upset. Clearly, it will have to be Iowa State or Kansas.

KU certainly faces the tougher opponent, but the Jayhawks have the better coach. ISU faces a tougher environment and a team that probably should have won in Ames, but the Clones' confidence is sky-high right now.

Either way, expect both games to be close. Missouri only won by three and Texas only won by two.

Cumulative pick record: 39-11 (.780)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04

4-1 (.800)

52 A&M
61 Baylor

49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri

71 Texas
77 I-State

49 K-State
67 Kansas

59 Tech
67 O-State

01.07

3-2 (.600)

59 Missouri
75 K-State

72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma

74 I-State
50 A&M

73 Baylor
60 Tech

49 O-State
58 Texas

01.09-01.11

4-1 (.800)

65 Oklahoma
72 O-State

75 Baylor
73 K-State

76 Missouri
69 I-State

81 Kansas
46 Tech

51 A&M
61 Texas

01.14

4-1 (.800)

65 O-State
106 Baylor

73 I-State
82 Kansas

73 Texas
84 Missouri

73 K-State
82 Oklahoma

54 Tech
67 A&M

01.16-01.18

5-0 (1.000)

74 Baylor
92 Kansas

51 A&M
70 Missouri

55 Tech
64 Oklahoma

68 O-State
71 I-State

80 Texas
84 K-State

01.21

3-2 (.600)

89 Missouri
88 Baylor

66 K-State
58 O-State

75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)

76 I-State
52 Tech

69 Kansas
66 Texas

01.23-01.25

4-1 (.800)

54 A&M
64 Kansas

77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma

55 I-State
62 Texas

72 Missouri
79 O-State

69 K-State
47 Tech

01.28

3-2 (.600)

71 Texas
76 Baylor

64 Kansas
72 I-State

63 Oklahoma
60 K-State

50 Tech
63 Missouri

61 O-State
76 A&M

01.30-02.01

5-0 (1.000)

67 Missouri
66 Texas

70 K-State
72 I-State

80 O-State
63 Tech

62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas

63 Baylor
60 A&M

02.04

4-1 (.800)

53 A&M
64 K-State

71 Kansas
74 Missouri)

64 Baylor
60 O-State

77 I-State
70 Oklahoma

57 Tech
74 Texas

02.06-02.08

Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma

Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)

Tech
@ K-State (GPS)

I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)

Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)

02.11

A&M
@ I-State (GPS)

O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)

Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)

Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech

K-State
@ Texas (GPS)

02.13-02.15

I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)

Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)

Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)

A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)

O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)

02.18

K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)

Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)

Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)

Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)

Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M

02.20-02.22

Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)

K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)

Tech
@ I-State (GPS)

O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)

Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M

02.25

Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)

I-State
@ K-State (GPS)

Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)

A&M
@ O-State (GPS)

Texas (GPS)
@ Tech

02.27-02.29

Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)

Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State

K-State (GPS)
@ A&M

I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)

Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)

03.03

Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)

O-State
@ K-State (GPS)

Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)

A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)

Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech

K-State Slate: 2.7.12

2012-02-07T13:00:17Z

K-State Basketball

K-State gets a home game against Texas Tech, who is winless in Big 12 conference play this season. After this, the Wildcats face a murderous stretch that includes games at Texas, KU at home, at Baylor and at Missouri.

With Will Spradling breaking out of his slump, Angel Rogriguez finding his confidence, and Rodney McGruder getting healthy K-State should have three guards ready to go against Tech tonight.

SB Nation's Bracketology has K-State in the field and seeded eighth. We'll take an NCAA Tournament appearance any way we can get it at this point, but Notre Dame in the first round followed by Kentucky in the Round of 32? Yikes.

Big 12 Basketball

Missouri got a 71-68 win in Norman after Steven Pledger missed a three pointer that would have tied the game at the buzzer ... Texas won the final Lone Star Showdown when it picked up a 70-68 win over Texas A&M in College Station.

Speaking of Texas and basketball, Peter Bean has an excellent article for Basketball Prospectus looking at the Big 12 race as it enters the final stretch.

Big 12 Football

West Virginia is buying out of its game against Florida State this September. Yet another sign that the Mountaineers have every intention of being in the Big 12 for the 2012-13 season.