Camden Chat

Projecting the Orioles in 2012 (Part II)

2012-02-10T16:00:11Z

Last year, I said that it would be fair to expect the Oriole offense to be significantly better than they were in 2010, by something like 100 runs or so. And that basically happened, as the '11 Orioles scored 95 runs more than their previous iteration. In fact, no other team in the sport improved their offense as much as the Orioles from 2010 to 2011. So much for all of the frustration caused by soul-killing strikeouts and Vladimir Guerrero's poor cleanup hitting, huh?

I've already taken a look at the 2012 bench and made an estimation of it collectively scoring 80 to 100 runs, for a relatively large improvement over the poor bench performance in 2011. Today our focus moves to the starting lineup. This is the performance breakdown of last year's starters:

Position	Player(s)	PA	wOBA	Runs Created (wRC)
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	590	.318	67
C	Matt Wieters	551	.339	72
1B	Derrek Lee/Chris Davis	493	.309	53
2B	Brian Roberts/Robert Andino	689	.297	67
3B	Mark Reynolds	620	.348	85
SS	J.J. Hardy	567	.343	76
LF	Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold	541	.326	65
CF	Adam Jones	618	.339	81
RF	Nick Markakis	716	.334	91

*As I normally do, I refer to weighted on base average (wOBA), the all-encompassing offensive statistic of choice. Runs Created is derived from it and plate appearances. All data can be found on fangraphs.com.

While Reynolds actually spent time at first and Davis at third, but from an offensive point of view, their position is meaningless. Davis replaced Lee in the lineup. All other players, besides pitchers (who, led by Zach Britton, created 5 runs of their own), figured into the bench part of this project. As a group, the starters totaled 657 runs in 5385 plate appearances.

Our first task is determining playing time for the 2012 batch of starters:

Player	Projected PA
Wilson Betemit	400
Matt Wieters	550
Chris Davis	550
Mark Reynolds	650
Robert Andino	500
J.J. Hardy	550
Nolan Reimold	550
Adam Jones	615
Nick Markakis	700

A few thoughts on how I arrived here. Most of these players had roughly this many PA last season, which provides a sturdy baseline to project off of. Andino I'm projecting for fewer PA than the second basemen received in 2011, because I expect the Orioles will try and find more time for Matt Antonelli or Ryan Adams or perhaps Ryan Flaherty, at least to begin the year. If you remember from part one, I think the bench will receive more time at the plate than they did last year. That should cut into Andino's playing time, since Andino is the weakest link on the offense.

If you're playing along at home, you've noticed I'm missing about 200 PA to get to a full year. The issue is Wilson Betemit, who has never gotten more than 412 PA in any season (and that high water mark came back in 2006). Additionally, the Orioles have indicated a desire to use him for his ability to crush right handed pitching. But who serves as the other half of the DH platoon? That is a question that is yet to answered. But let's not forget about those last 200 PA.

Armed now with playing time projections that make sense to me, let's establish a basic expectation. If every single 2012 starter hit at the same rate as he did in 2011, but in the plate appearances I have projected, how many runs would the Orioles score?

Player	Projected Runs Created
Wilson Betemit	52
Matt Wieters	72
Chris Davis	58
Robert Andino	52
Mark Reynolds	89
J.J. Hardy	74
Nolan Reimold	72
Adam Jones	81
Nick Markakis	89

It's not a surprise that the projected total, 639, is not far from the total runs the starters created in 2011, 657. After all, the only new starter is WIlson Betemit, who looks like a certain upgrade at DH. With the extra 200 PA still in our back pocket, it's easy to suggest that the starters, even with reduced playing time, could equal the total production of the 2011 lineup. The big question to tackle at this point is who will hit better, and who will hit worse than they did in 2011?

I can easily break the lineup into three groups:

Bounce-Back Candidates

Nick Markakis is a perennial bounce-back candidate. His stat line just seems to keep going down. Last year, to top it off, he suffered from an abdominal injury. Here's reason for optimism: From June 1st onwards, Markakis hit for a .813 OPS, before that it was an ice cold .640. If an .813 OPS is close to the true Nick Markakis, then a return to his 2009-2010 offensive production levels is absolutely within reason. That's a potential boost of about 10 runs in Nick's bat. You do have to wonder about the abdominal injury though, and honestly I'm not sure how to project that out. I will say that giving Nick an extra 5 runs seems fair, if somewhat conservative.

Matt Wieters turns 26 in May, he still has his traditional prime years ahead of him. He should get better with the bat, and he's already trending upwards as it is. Let's give him an extra 5 runs, too.

Regression Candidates

"Regression" doesn't necessarily imply downwards trending, but it has a certain negative ring to it, so I'm going to use it for its negative connotations here. The top regression candidate is easily J.J. Hardy, who had a career year in the power department while doing very little getting on base. A return to form for Hardy could see him drop 10 of the runs he created in 2011.

Everyone Else

Gun to my head, I see everyone else in the starting lineup pretty much being who they have been. Certainly there is upside with Chris Davis, but Davis has over a thousand plate appearances in his career and has been pretty much who we saw at the end of last season. Adam Jones is a terrific player, but he's sat around 80 runs created the past two seasons with relatively stable underlying stats.

There is potential for greatness, but to expect that it to be realized would be foolish. As this is a project to develop a reasonable expectation in 2012, I'm inclined to leave everyone else more or less where they were in 2011.

Coincidentally, between our improved outlook for Markakis and Wieters and our grayish outlook for Hardy, the starters nearly break even with where they were in 2011.Our total runs created expectation, including the bench, now sits at about 720 runs, which is a modest improvement over the 708 runs scored in 2011. Sabrmetrically, we can expect the Orioles' bats to win an extra game over the 2011 squad. It's not much, but it's something.

But wait! The question remains of who receives the missing 200 PA. Manny Ramirez? Wilson Betemit? Nick Johnson? Jai Miller? Once that answer becomes clearer, we can revisit this topic. In the meantime, consider that the average 2011 Oriole, if given 200 PA, would create 23 runs. That's two more wins generated by the offense. Hopefully, whoever the Orioles settle on to share DH duties with Betemit can do even better than that.

Orioles Hail 20th Anniversary of Camden Yards

2012-02-08T17:36:18Z

If you are an Orioles fan, you probably get a little extra pride in your voice when talking about Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which will be celebrating the 20th anniversary of its inaugural season this year. No surprise for an O's fan to get excited about Camden, considering the team hasn't been good for more than a decade.

Turns out the O's like Camden Yards a lot too. This season, the team will be sporting a 20th anniversary of OPACY patch on the uniform, and there will be assorted special events at the ballpark throughout the year. Among these will be the unveiling of the previously-announced statues of the Orioles inductees into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Not stopping there, though: today, the team has made public a site celebrating the anniversary.

There are a variety of historical artifacts on the site, but the coolest, by far, is the Eutaw Street Home Run tracker, which has a little interactive map showing the landing spots of all of the Eutaw HRs in Camden Yards' history. This is complete with video of every home run that's landed on Eutaw, all the way back to 1992. I just listened to Jon Miller calling some guy from Texas hitting a home run off Jose Mesa in 1992. Another one has Mickey Tettleton as a Tiger hitting a home run off Ben McDonald. It's a treasure trove. Most of these names I remember, though some I don't. Who was Kevin Bass? I don't know, but he hit a Eutaw HR for the Orioles in '95.

Comedy gold can be found on the site, too, with its tagline: The Ballpark That Forever Changed Baseball™. They really have the ™ on there. This was in the press release and everything. Look, I love OPACY, and I hope this is never in doubt, but let's leave the arrogance of the Pretentious Capitalization and the Random Trademarking to the Yankees, okay? We all make fun of the whole Most Storied Franchise thing, and nobody wants to see the same sort of attitude taking root in these parts.

Not-so-fun fact: in the 20 seasons that the Orioles have played since Camden Yards opened, exactly four of those seasons have been .500 or better; only one, the wire-to-wire run in 1997, saw the O's win more than 90 games. The Orioles had a home record of .500 or better every year from 1992 to 2000 and they have not had one since, although they came kind of close a few times, including last year's 39-42 mark in the confines of Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Are they going to break that futility this year? Well... no. Probably not. Still, what a great place to watch a baseball game.

What Worries Me

2012-02-07T16:00:41Z

My immediate reaction when I heard about the Jeremy Guthrie trade yesterday was a blend of shock, anger, and confusion. The deal deprived the Orioles of one of my favorites and the return left me wanting in a bad way. But it is important to let these things percolate and look at them with a more rational mind, and I found that as the shock wore off, I had less and less to complain about with the trade.

Yes, Jason Hammel is not as good a pitcher as Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Lindstrom's walk rates have been known to have a certain Kevin Gregg-ness to them. But Guthrie is 33 years old with a 4.19 career ERA and is a free agent after this season. I can easily believe the reports out of the front office that this winter the demand just wasn't there. Roy Oswalt is still out of work, and it took a longer time than expected for Edwin Jackson to settle for just one year. The pitching market isn't tremendous, and in that light this trade seems relatively fair.

So what's missing from this package that would have made it more palatable?

The answer is youth. This trade doesn't make the O's significantly better in 2012 and does nothing for them long-term. I can hammer on this point for weeks: the Orioles won 69 games in 2011 and they need to be thinking long-term. But, then, it appears to be the case that nobody wanted to give up youth for Guthrie. Yesterday de facto General Manager Dan Duquette explicitly said "We didn't have any offers of young prospects." Teams are valuing their young talent higher than ever before. That's unfortunate, but it is what it is. You have to hope now that Hammel or Lindstrom have big years and build up enough trade value to get the needed young talent into the Oriole organization.

Fox Sports' (and former Baltimore Sun writer) Ken Rosenthal chimed in on the trade, echoing a lot of my own thoughts:

The Baltimore Orioles should have traded right-hander Jeremy Guthrie at the non-waiver deadline last season, or even before. His value was higher when he was further away from free agency, under greater club control.

[snip]

The word "had" is applicable not because of Guthrie’s performance — he pitched gallantly as a No. 1 starter in the American League East, averaging nearly 200 innings and compiling an ERA-plus of 106 during the past five seasons. But the formula for trades is always the same: The higher a player’s salary, the closer he is to free agency, the less a team gets in return.

New Orioles general manager Dan Duquette inherited the situation. His predecessor, Andy MacPhail, was the executive who steadfastly held on to Guthrie. Perhaps Duquette could have made a better deal earlier in the off-season, involving a greater number of suitors.

It's impossible for regular fans to know the particulars of any trade conversation. Perhaps the Orioles never could have gotten good prospects for Jeremy Guthrie no matter what. It does feel like what Rosenthal says is right, though: the Orioles ran out the clock on this one and ended up with what feels a lot like an underwhelming trade. Moreover, Rosenthal postulates that this is just the latest in a long string of inefficient roster building moves that have defined the Orioles over the past fifteen years.

What about Koji Uehara, who was traded to Texas for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis last summer? I bemoaned a lack of prospects coming back in that trade on the day it was made. That feeling was punctuated the very next day when Texas sent prospects Joseph Weiland and Robbie Erlin (both B+ guys according to John Sickels) to San Diego for a reliever with similar value to Koji, Mike Adams.

Or Luke Scott, who easily led the Orioles in value for the 2010 season and became the subject of some trade rumors that season? The Orioles held onto him and ended up with nothing. Or J.J. Hardy, who surely would have been coveted by contending teams lacking quality shortstops last summer. Hardy's career year came and went, and the O's still have their 29 year old shortstop.

Maybe there wasn't a deal to be had there. Maybe there wasn't with Koji, Scott, or Guthrie either. Or maybe time just ran out on all those potential deals. Or maybe we're seeing an obvious trend of a team that wants MLB ready players, even if the total potential coming into the system is less than it would be with prospects. Better to compete in the short-term than go into full rebuild mode, it would seem.

Now I think about Adam Jones. Jones is another player that has been the subject of trade rumors, who is more valuable to a contending team than to the Orioles, and who almost definitely would be worth good prospects from a contending team. He is also a player the Orioles haven't shown an eagerness to commit long-term to. That even dates back to some cryptic remarks Andy MacPhail made during a blogger Q&A about young players needing to prove themselves within three years. Jones is a player that is also rapidly approaching his free agency payday. And he remains on the Orioles.

It's what really worries me about this Jeremy Guthrie trade. The Orioles aren't and haven't been aggressive about rebuilding their talent base through prospects-for-veterans trades, and it has bitten them three times now in the past 12 months. I strongly believe that the journey between the present in Baltimore and contending has to go through the building of an absolute beast of a farm system. The Orioles have another opportunity to cash in on a high quality player in Adam Jones and accelerate that process, but all I see is the clock once again ticking down.

Get to know the new O's: Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom

2012-02-06T21:02:10Z

There has been much lamenting the loss of Jeremy Guthrie and a lot of head scratching regarding the return on the trade, but the fact is that Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are Orioles now, so let's cross our fingers they play well and that Dan Duquette knows something we don't.

Andrew Fisher from Purple Row, the SB Nation Rockies blog, was kind enough to send us a few observations on the two newest Orioles. First up, Jason Hammel (Andrew's comments are in block quotes, mine are not):

Hammel is one of my favorite players to ever put on a Rockies' uniform. In a field where athletes are likely not even conscious during interviews, Hammel provides unique dry wit and self-deprecating honesty in interviews. His dorky humor is enough to make a fan chuckle even after a tough loss. When he pitches well, he says so. When he pitches like dog excrement, he says so. When he pitches well and is undone by rotten luck, he says that too. (He has one memorable quote about being undone by a 27-hop home run...an inside the parker that was grounded down the 1B line.)

If there is one thing we like here at Camden Chat, it's dorky humor. Hopefully we'll be laughing along with Hammel instead of throwing things at our TV.

He's a fascinating player to analyze, as his 2009 and 2010 seasons rank #1 and #2 in Rockies' franchise history in terms of K/BB rate. He hit a home run off Zack Greinke. As a fan of baseball analysis, he has been an ideal case study to parse through. His 2009 and 2010 were nearly identical seasons in every statistical way...except for an ERA of a half run higher in 2010. And yet in well over 700 IP, his career ERA is much much higher than his FIP/'xFIP etc.

If his career ERA is much higher than his FIP then he's basically the opposite of Jeremy Guthrie, who always performed better than his FIP. I guess there's hope that Hammel might even out here in Baltimore. I mean, we have to hope for something, don't we?

He tends to give up hits in bunches, and his inconsistency is maddening. He has essentially lost a rotation spot two years running. His strikeout rate (ranked 86 of 94 qualifying MLB pitchers in 2011) took a nose dive. His curveball, which was really exceptional in 2009, no longer got so many whiffs, leaving him unable to put batters away in 2011. It could be mental with him. On one occasion last season, he stopped his windup midmotion because he forgot what pitch he had just agreed to throw.

Well, that's encouraging.

He had a child born late last season, and he was lights out afterward (coincidence? who knows?). He also was on medication for a genetic health condition last year. Either way, he's a great guy to have in the clubhouse. It is just tough to know exactly what he will provide. He still has decent upside, but his peripherals took a huge hit last year. He is not on twitter, though his brother @Bill_Hammel is. I wrote Player Reviews for him in 2010 and 2011.

Interesting stuff on Hammel. As for Lindstrom:

Matt Lindstrom is a sexy bullpen option. He plays with fire and he throws fire. He will toss out 96mph consistently and had a career best effort in terms of control last season. He's a bit more of a skater dude personality and one case see he has the so-called "closer mentality." He was an exceptional find for Colorado in 2011, as they got him for two D prospects last off-season, and he panned out well with a 3.00 ERA. With that closer pedigree and big time cheese, one would expect high strikeout numbers. Yet of 129 relievers with 50+ IP last year, he ranked 110th with just 6.00. It was kind of strange. The upside seems to be there, but it just hasn't translated. Best case for Baltimore - he can be a legitimate closer. More likely, he's a decent middle reliever. Lindstrom is not on twitter. Our Jeff Aberle wrote a review of his 2011 season.

Lindstrom will likely be an asset to the bullpen, and hopefully he'll reach his potential. But given that he'll turn 32 years old next week, the fact that his upside hasn't translated to success yet is a bit troubling.

Thanks to Andrew for the insight! And here's hoping the Rockies can contend in 2012 so that Guts can get a taste of the playoffs.

Jeremy Guthrie Trade: The Conference Call

2012-02-06T18:42:25Z

As you have by now read on this site and elsewhere, Jeremy Guthrie was traded by the Orioles to Colorado. In exchange, the O's received a starter, Jason Hammel, who is 29, and a reliever, Matt Lindstrom, who is 31. At 12:30pm today the O's had a conference call for the media with Dan Duquette and also the two newest members of the O's. Yours truly had the opportunity to listen in. The conference lasted about half an hour. There's a lot of stuff that gets asked and answered that I get the feeling is boilerplate stuff. Here are some of the highlights:

* Duquette cited several times that both Hammel and Lindstrom can be under team control for 2013 as a reason in favor of making the trade.

* He was asked if, while exploring trades, he had the opportunity to get young and upcoming prospects instead. "We didn't have any offers of young prospects."

* Duquette likes calling everyone "a dependable pitcher"; he referred to Guthrie this way as well as Hammel and Lindstrom. Then he mentioned Hammel's past 3 years of 177, 178 and 170 IP. Is that where the bar is set for dependable? Hammel doesn't seem to have spent time on the DL. He makes starts, just doesn't average 6+ IP.

* At one point, Duquette cited K/BB ratios as being a strength of the players acquired. He described them as having ratios "approaching" 3:1. Hammel's career K/BB is 2.01. Lindstrom's career K/BB is 2.12. Guthrie's career K/BB is 2.06. I am not sure that is how I would deploy the word "approaching."

* This fact was not referenced on the conference call (probably because the players themselves were also listening), but Guthrie has settled for $8.2M with Colorado. The combinination of the salaries of Hammel and Lindstrom is $8.35M.

* Duquette's favorite evasive answer is to say that he "can't comment on players on other teams rosters." I have to admit I am not sure at what level this injunction exists. He wouldn't take the bait on questions about the name of Eric Young Jr. possibly having been mentioned in the trade talks with Colorado, and also when asked about the possibility of re-acquiring Koji.

* Duquette said he "would still like to strengthen the bullpen between now and spring training." I would still like some winning lottery numbers.

* He talked about wanting to have "a set of reinforcements to develop in AAA for the big league team." Is this going to be the new cavalry thing? The reinforcements, it seems, are going to be the pitchers who still have minor league options. The impression I get is if the choice is between two guys otherwise equal, the one with the option is going to AAA. As to who is going to be in the rotation, Duquette said you'd have to ask Buck, who was not on the call.

* There was one question asked about the Orioles' level of interest in Manny Ramirez. Duquette expressly DID NOT rule out the possibility of the O's acquiring him. This was the answer: "We're aware that Manny's on the market, we've had some exploratory talks with his agent, we have seen him work out, but we're still considering the composition of this club and some of the challenges of integrating a player like Manny into our ballclub and market. That's really all I can say about it right now."

I think that about covers the interesting parts. I listened to the whole call and have some notes that I didn't include in this post, so if you have any other questions feel free to ask in the comments and I'll answer them if I can.

I've always been grateful to the Orioles fans and even more so now that I'm looking back on it. I...

2012-02-06T18:22:18Z

I've always been grateful to the Orioles fans and even more so now that I'm looking back on it. I really enjoyed interacting and playing in front of them as much as you could ever imagine. This is my favorite team I played on with the Orioles in terms of the 25 guys and the coaches, and I'll miss them probably more than I even realize right now. The friendships have meant a lot to me. Those are the things that come to mind. And I really believe this team has a lot of good parts. I think they'll win and that will be hard for me. It will be hard not being part of it when I see them winning, which I expect them to do.

... There aren't many things the last five years that I don't remember. The ones I think of right away include my first opening day at Camden Yards, seeing the festivities, having never been on an opening day roster and seeing what it's all about in that city and that community. And my great teammates. Even Matt Wieters being called up to the big leagues is something I'll always remember, the excitement for that. There are countless memories and I don't anticipate forgetting those moments ever.

...I think everything that happened the past five years helped me grow and my family grow. My five years in Baltimore are a huge part of my family's lives and the foundation for what's going on the rest of our time here.

School of Roch: Guthrie talks about the trade

Jeremy Guthrie traded to the Rockies for two players not likely to be any better than Jeremy Guthrie

2012-02-06T14:40:11Z

It's being reported by the Baltimore Sun, MASN, and Jeremy Guthrie himself on Twitter: our defacto ace and fan favorite Jeremy Guthrie has been traded to the Colorado Rockies for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.

Ok, so the first thing is that I understand the front office doesn't have the luxury of thinking like a fan when it comes to making trades. As a fan, I'm sad that Jeremy Guthrie is gone. He's a good baseball player and a nicer human, and he's been good to the city of Baltimore in his time here. But even I know that he most likely wasn't going to be on the next good Orioles team, so if a good deal could be made for him, it should have been.

The question is: is this a good deal?

Jason Hammel is 29 years old and started his career with the Devil Rays, but has spent the last three seasons in Colorado. He's pitched about 170 innings in each of the last three seasons, and in 2009 and 2010 was pretty good, putting up an fWAR of 3.9 in each of the years. His ERA was inflated quite a bit over his FIP in those years, but took an opposite turn in 2011. After a poor showing in the rotation, Hammel was demoted to the bullpen on August 20th and made seven appearances for the rest of the season.

Hammel isn't a horrible pitcher, that's for certain. He'll be getting out of Coors Field which could help him, and he could conceivably be productive for the Orioles this year. Will he be as productive as Guthrie? Sure, maybe, if he can pitch like he did a few seasons ago. And he won't be a free agent until 2014 so there's an extra year than the O's would get from Guthrie.

The other piece of the trade is Matt Lindstrom. When the season begins, Lindstrom will be 32 years old. He is a serviceable bullpen arm and nothing more. His current contract has a $4M option for 2013, or else he'll be a free agent after this season.

So, is it a good deal? I think as far as strict exchange of talent goes, it's not awful. But that's not what the Orioles need. If this deal ends up making the Orioles a better team, it will only be a marginal difference and it will be short term. The Orioles need to make changes that will help them down the road, not maybe for this season. I have no way of knowing if a Guthrie trade could bring back something that would help the Orioles long term, but if it's determined that the best you can do for him is this deal right here, then I wish they would have just let Guthrie stay an Oriole.

We don't have much as Orioles fans, but we have a few players we love to root for. Guthrie is one of them, and getting rid of him for this return just doesn't feel right.

Sunday Bird Droppings

2012-02-05T13:03:12Z

Happy Birthday to Bowser herself today!

And apparently, there's one more football game. Don't know why they're bothering, the season ended two weeks ago. Sheesh, NFL, try and keep up. Honestly, there's not much in the way of Orioles news. To say there's slim pickin's would be an insult to this guy. But here's what's happening:

Orioles Unload 'Everything But the Crab Cakes' into Ed Smith Stadium - Sarasota, FL Patch
"Spring Training is getting closer, as the Baltimore Orioles unload a van full of supplies into its Baseball Operations Center and Ed Smith Stadium on Saturday. "We've brought everything but the crab cakes," said Laura Williams, Orioles director of Florida Operations." Oh, and there's video.

Ernst: Orioles' promise of youth facility looks hollow | HeraldTribune.com
"Just tell them what they want to hear. It's a surefire strategy in most cases, and we can see how it was used to perfection in the Sarasota County Commission's dealings with the Baltimore Orioles baseball team." Seems the O's haven't made everyone happy down in Florida.

Orioles' Taiwanese starter called best investment: LA Times - CNA ENGLISH NEWS
"A three-year baseball contract the American Baltimore Orioles signed with Taiwanese pitcher Chen Wei-yin was one of the "smartest" investments in Major League Baseball (MLB) recently, the Los Angeles Times said in its Saturday edition."