Canis Hoopus

Tim's Game Preview: Game 25, Sacramento Kings

2012-02-07T21:25:08Z

With Kevin Love suspended for the next two games, Wolves fans will get to see what life is like without Love.

Minnesota Timberwolves (12-12) vs. Sacramento Kings (9-15) at Target Center

Last season, with Kevin Love having a career-year and one of the best statistical performances of anyone in the NBA, the Wolves were still only able to win 17 games. Without Love, the Wolves may have been the worst team of all-time. Love missed the last 9 games at the end of the 2010-2011 season and the Wolves lost every one of them.

Tonight, we'll get to see how well this new-and-improved Minnesota team will play without Love. Derrick Williams is going to start in his spot tonight, while Anthony Randolph and Anthony Tolliver, who is playing with a cold, will also likely receive minutes in Love's spot.

Ricky Rubio sadly observed that, "It will be weird when someone takes the shot and he doesn’t take the rebound. Maybe he will jump from home or something."

Maybe he will, Ricky. Maybe he will.

There are sarcastic jokes, ironic jokes, slapstick jokes and knock-knock jokes but one of my all-time favorite jokes is...DeMarcus Cousins.

Projected Starting Lineups

C: Nikola Pekovic vs. DeMarcus Cousins
PF: Derrick Williams vs. Jason Thompson
SF: Wesley Johnson vs. John Salmons
SG: Luke Ridnour vs. Marcus Thornton
PG: Ricky Rubio vs. Tyreke Evans

It was easy to predict that last Friday night's game would turn into a battle between Nikola Pekovic and Anthony Morrow.

Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings: (7 gms behind in Pacific; 4 1/2 behind 8th seed)

Loss at Utah 93-96
Loss at Golden State 90-93
Win vs. Portland 95-92
Win vs. Golden State 114-106 (OT)
Win vs. New Orleans 100-92

Minnesota Timberwolves: (7 games behind in Northwest; 1 1/2 behind 8th seed)

Loss vs. LA Lakers 101-106
Win at Houston 120-108
Loss vs. Indiana 99-109
Win at New Jersey 108-105
Win vs. Houston 100-91

Clearly, Malcolm Lee is having a hard time adjusting to his new stint with the Sioux ~~City~~ Falls ~~(IA)~~ (SD) Skyforce.

Injuries

Sacramento Kings:

None

Minnesota Timberwolves:

Malcolm Lee - Currently rehabing left knee injury in Sioux Falls of the NBDL
Darko Milicic - Questionable for tonight's game with a bruised left quadriceps

Never before has so much attention been given to the difference between the words "step" and "stomp".

Recent News

Kevin Love was suspended two games by the NBA for "driving his foot into the upper body and face of the Rockets' Luis Scola as Scola was lying on the floor." Love has since apologized to Luis Scola and the Rockets.

I expected his list to read, "1. Jonny Flynn 2. Kevin Ollie 3. Magic Johnson 4. Kobe Bryant 5. Anyone Not Named Ricky Rubio."

Noteworthy Stats

Nikola Pekovic is taking 11.9 shots per-36 minutes this season, which is up from 10.7 last season, and has also improved his eFG% from .517 to .617.
J.J. Barea is currently taking the most shot attempts per-36 on the team with 16.6. Michael Beasley (16.5), Kevin Love (16.2), Martell Webster (14.8) and Anthony Randolph (12.7) round out the top 5.
When looking at net production by position (in PER), the Wolves are getting outplayed at the point guard (-0.1), shooting guard (-2.1) and small forward (-6.9) positions. They are outplaying teams at center (+1.6) and power forward (+7.0).
Jimmer Fredette is currently shooting better from three-point range (39%) than two-point range (35%)
Wayne Ellington is tied for the 4th lowest turnover ratio in the NBA (with Charles Jenkins), behind only Matt Bonner, Ryan Anderson and Jodie Meeks
Ricky Rubio has had 11 double-doubles this season. The other NBA rookies have combined for 9 double-doubles.

Just a reminder that Kevin Love's 4th annual coat driveis ongoing and ends February 17th. You can bring new coats to any of eight metro-area drop-off locations, including the Target Center Box Office and Comcast service centers, with all donations supporting The Salvation Army.
Each fan who donates a coat will receive a pair of tickets to the February 22nd game vs. the Utah Jazz for each new coat they donate (limit four tickets per family while supplies last).

Jeremy Lin and the Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

2012-02-07T18:41:47Z

Jeremy Lin and the Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

I loved watching Jeremy’s aggression on the court and his enjoyment of the game. I loved seeing his teammates’ celebration, since Jeremy has obviously won their hearts with his courage and kindness. I did not love the belittling comments. Now, I’m always reticent to cry "racism," and I won’t cry "racism" in this case. The commentators are not showing hatred of a race. I won’t even call it bigotry — at least not bigotry outright. If anything, they’re showing what President Bush famously called "the soft bigotry of low expectations." Their astonishment at the sight of Jeremy Lin outperforming the other players, their consistent references to how exhausted he must be, and how "magical" a night he’s having (rather than a natural result of talent and hard work) suggests that they’ve bought into the stereotype of the physically inferior Asian-American male.

From Timothy Dalrymple at Philosophical Fragments

Well worth reading

Dramatic Improvement

2012-02-07T02:33:26Z

Are the Wolves Making History With Their Turnaround?

The last time the Minnesota Timberwolves finished a season at .500 or above, it was 2005. Kevin Garnett was a top-5 NBA player, Latrell Sprewell was still gainfully employed and Ndudi Ebi still had a roster spot. While it is getting ahead of ourselves a little bit to project out out the remaining 42 games of the '11-'12 NBA season, it is always interesting to play the "what if" game, and this one seems fairly logical:

What if the Wolves kept up their current pace and finished with a .500 record?

Given how historically bad the Wolves have been over the last two seasons, where would that put them in terms of turnarounds in the NBA? Would this be a historical event or just good progress? I thought I'd take a look below the fold.

First, let's start out with the basics.

If the Wolves were to finish with a .500 record, that would give them 33 wins. Last season they won 17 games. The difference of 16 games is nice, but is hardly a record. It would not even be the best turnaround in Wolves history, given that they went from 25 wins in '98-'99 (another strike shortened season) to 50 wins in '99-'00.

Of course, it's hardly fair to compare the number of wins in a strike-shortened season to the number of wins in a full 82-game season. If the Wolves went .500 in a normal year, they'd finish with 41 wins. That's a difference of 24 games, which while not a record either, is getting closer.

Perhaps it is better to look at win% increase. In that case, a .500 win percentage is .293 points better than the .207 win percentage the Wolves had last season. That's far and away better than the .110 improvement the team saw between '98-'99 and '99-'00.

Since 1995, these are the three best NBA turnarounds:

3. Phoenix Suns '04-'05

Record: 62-20

Previous season record: 29-53

Improvement: 33 games (.402 increase)

The difference: The Suns brought in unrestricted free agent Steve Nash to take the keys from Stephon Marbury and hired new coach Mike D'Antoni. That duo, along with the development of Leandro Barbosa, Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson, led the Suns from 6th in the Pacific Division to the Western Conference Finals. Phoenix went from scoring 94.2 points per game (11th in the NBA) with an Offensive Rating of 101.4 (21st) to 110.4 (1st) and 114.5 (1st), respectively.

2. San Antonio Spurs '97-'98

Record: 56-26

Previous season record: 20-62

Improvement: 36 games (.439 increase)

The difference: After David Robinson suffered a season-ending knee injury only 6 games into the '96-'97 season, the Spurs were bad enough that they earned the 1st overall pick in the 1997 NBA Draft. They took Tim Duncan, one of the top 3 power forwards of all-time. Robinson returned and the Spurs won 56 games. They would win the NBA Championship the following year.

1. Boston Celtics '07-'08

Record: 66-16

Previous season record: 24-58

Improvement: 42 games (.512)

The difference: Wolves fans know this one by heart. Danny Ainge swapped Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair,, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Jeff Green, 2 2009 1sts (Wayne Ellington and Jonny Flynn) and a 2008 2nd (Trent Plaisted) for Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis. The Celtics defeated the Lakers for the NBA Championship, the concept of a "Big Three" was born, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade stole the idea, and the rest is history.

By the way, the combined number of starts in the '11-12 season was 43 for Davis/Allen/Garnett and 44 for the 11 players who were traded in return.

Whether you go strictly by number of wins, or you go by percentage of wins, the Wolves fall well short of the mark in comparison to those three teams. So perhaps this season is not quite NBA history in the making.

But wait...the Suns won 29 games the year before their comeback and had made the playoffs in the year prior to that ('02-'03). The Spurs were only bad because of a fluke injury to their best player and had won 59 games the previous season ('95-'96). Even the Celtics, before their 24-win season, had 33 wins the year before that. The Wolves have not won 33 games in nearly six seasons.

None of those three teams could match the consistent awfulness that the Wolves have displayed over the past two seasons.

112 teams since 1979-1980 have finished their respective seasons with a win percentage of less than .300. The Wolves franchise is responsible for 9 of those teams. Only the Vancouver/Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles/San Diego Clippers have had more seasons below .300 (10) in that time.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns have not had a sub-.300 season during that time period.

The Wolves, however, have had 4 sub-.300 seasons in a row. That feat has only been accomplished 4 other times in NBA history. Only 12 times has a team had 3 or more sub-.300 seasons in a row:

Team	# of Seasons (Years)	Win % Next Season
Minnesota	4 ('08-'11)	?
Memphis	3 ('07-'09)	.488
Washington	3 ('93-'95)	.476
New York	3 ('85-'87)	.463
Miami	3 ('89-'91)	.463
Dallas	3 ('92-'94)	.439
LA Clippers	3 ('98-'00)	.378
Philadelphia	3 ('95-'97)	.378
LA Clippers	3 ('87-'89)	.366
Chicago	4 ('99-'02)	.366
Vancouver	7 ('96-'03)	.341
Minnesota	4 ('92-'95)	.317

The Celtics, Spurs and Suns may have been able to make better turnarounds from one season to the next. This season's Wolves could wind up being the first team with such a lengthy losing streak to finish at .500 or above. Being able to go from consistent awfulness to respectability takes a great coach, a rookie point guard who is already playing like a veteran and an All-Star who is inserting himself into the top-10 NBA player conversation.

There is a long way to go, including a 7-game road trip in March (9 out of 10 on the road overall during that stretch). If the team stays healthy and focused, however, there is no reason to believe they will not continue their current level of play and make history.

Who knows? Maybe they'll even contend for the playoffs...

Love Suspended 2 Games

2012-02-06T17:27:19Z

Love Suspended 2 Games

Kevin Love suspended two games for driving his foot into face of Luis Scola.

From ESPN Twitter

Not a huge deal. But not undeserved either.

Houston, We Are A Problem: Report Card vs. Rockets

2012-02-05T18:42:25Z

My internet works again, so I can share with you my thoughts on the game, which I watched this afternoon.

Pregame, I had a number of questions, which I'm sure many of you shared. Questions such as:

Can the Wolves finally go to .500?
Is Beas going to take over again?
If he does, will McHale continue to guard him with Budinger/Parsons?
Is Pek going to collect any more skulls?
How many bloody times do we have to play Houston anyway?

Firstly, .500 baby!

Secondly, apologies in advance.

Let's go...

First half, the Wolves came out strong and didn't fall behind early, and from then it was just a case of hanging on. This needs to happen every game. We got kinda lucky, Kevin Martin wasn't really in the game at all (2 points in 31 minutes) and couldn't get near Ridnour on defence early on. Ran a nice tight 10 man rotation (although Miller only played 6) and did what we had to do.

Near the end of the third we ran a really interesting 3 guard (all points!), 2 forward line-up of Ricky/JJ/Luke/Beas/KLove which actually looked pretty decent. (Was more balanced when Webster came in for Luke).

Houston turned it up in the 4th, and it felt like we were going to throw it away, but some nice play from Pek and a whole load of missed shots by Houston made it safe.

Starting line up:

Ricky Rubio 13-1-11 in 36 minutes B+

Seemed kinda off in the first half. BEAUTIFUL steal at the end of the first half. You know how it is, he's the Unicorn. Despite being a bit off he still outplayed all the Rockets' guards in my eyes and made some nice shots in the fourth. As always, highlight passes and general magical stuff.

Luke Ridnour 22-2-2 in 31 minutes (freaky symmetrical) A-

When Luke's shot is falling, he's fantastic. There was a period in the first quarter where we were going to Luke every time being guarded by Martin, and Houston would give it to Parsons to go at Ridnour at the other end. Played nice at the 2 next to Rubio, and I don't remember him ever running the point? Felt like it was always either Rubio or Barea. Anyway, good game from Ridnour.

Wes Johnson 5-1-0 in 19 minutes C

Nice alley-oop off a Rubio (who else?) pass, hit a 3. Pretty unremarkable game otherwise.

Kevin Love 25-18-1 and one stamp in 38 minutes B

Seemed a bit out of sorts - announcing team said he had flu. I thought he did a decent job defending Scola, but Scola got 24 so maybe I was seeing things that weren't there. Really good job on offence too. Him and Scola battled all game, which I guess brings us to the stamp. He's getting suspended for sure. He looks down, and stamps his chest, there's kind of no defence for it. I also think it's going to damage his reputation in the league. Bizarrely, Scola improved post-incident, and I felt like Love went cold for a bit. However, I can't let it get in the way of Love's overall game, which I thought was pretty decent.

Nikola Pekovic 11-9-0 in 29 minutes A-

The Peksecutioner. Tyrannosaurus Pek. The Pekberg.

Who can stop this guy? Big respect to Cynical, he's been talking this guy up for ages now, and he really does seem the real deal. Start him, leave him in as long as he can play/as long as foul trouble allows. Did a good job both ends on Dalembert (4 points, one rebound) and split time at C with Love and Miller.

I bumped him up to an A because he really stepped up in the 4th and crushed all his opponents before him. Add a couple of skulls.

The Bench

Michael Beasley 6-6-1 in 19 minutes C

His time on the sidelines seems to have helped. No longer stopping the ball movement, he's making nice passes and sensible plays. Kind of unremarkable - nothing sticks out (bad or good) but played well overall. Definitely prefer him coming off the bench though.

JJ Barea 10-3-3 in 25 minutes B+

I'd like to see some stats in terms of difference in pace when JJ is running point and when Rubio is. It feels fast with Ricky out there, but Barea makes everything seem super quick. Also, he creates a whole load of problems when he goes to the rim, noone can get near him. Kept it energetic in the second quarter.

Brad Miller 0-2-2 in 6 minutes B-/incomplete

Did I see him throw an alley oop (missed) for Webster? Kinda uninspiring numbers, but he felt a lot more important. Came in in the second quarter and (along with JJ), steadied it a bit and kept the momentum going. Couple of turnovers as a result of misunderstandings too.

Martell Webster 2-1-1 in 20 minutes C

Shot doesn't seem to want to fall at the moment, but energetic and hustling for loose balls. Want to see what he can do with bigger minutes.

Derrick Williams 6-5-0 in 13 minutes C/incomplete

We've had two biiiiig missed dunks this year, that would both have made big highlights. Webster with the left hander off a drive in his first game back, and tonight, with DWill attempting a HUGE putback off a missed Webster 3.

I just don't know anymore. When he's out on the court, he looks like (with enough minutes) he could do something really special. Where can we get the minutes from though? If we can fit him in and give him over 20 minutes a night I think we have to keep him. Otherwise, I don't know. I like him a lot though.

Mr. Adelman: A+

How much fun is it watching this team?

Also, I love having a coach that's constantly up on the sidelines looking animated.

I have so much respect, I will now no longer refer to him as Rick, or Adelman. It's Mr. Adelman from here on out.

Luis Scola's Hair: F

C'mon man.

Announcers: C

Apart from some rubbish about cricket, they did a good job. Weird seeing a game at Target Centre that isn't called by Hanny and J-Pete though.

Officiating: D

All over the place.

---

That's your lot. Hope you don't feel I've messed it up too badly!

Comments, constructive criticism and personal abuse below.

Also, I saw Jonny Flynn!

2012 Initial Draft Board

2012-02-05T15:02:32Z

Ok folks, with the Jazz looking like they could be a playoff threat and their protected first round pick being in play, I thought I’d roll out the ol’ draft board for another spin.

We’ll take a look at the initial rankings below the fold.

For those of you who haven’t seen one of our draft boards before, you can click on past Final Boards in the Hoopus Features tab in the left sidebar.

The Hoopus Score has evolved over the years but the basic thought behind the ranking system is that a two-part score based on net production and efficiency is the best way to create a bar upon which college production can be measured against potential pro success.

The score gives us three ways to look at a player. First, I measure raw production and weigh it against age and fit. Here is what I measure (all in pace-adjusted per 40 min stats from Draft Express):

=((((pts*games) + (reb*games) + (ast*games) + (blocks*games) +(steals*games))-(((fta*games)-(ftm*games))-(to*games)))/games)/ (weighted age) + (weighted position)/4

I weigh age on a sliding 20 point scale that takes into account the player’s age and class. For instance, a 18 year old freshman gets a score of 20 while a 19 year old freshman gets a 17.5.

"Fit" is also measured on a 20 point scale and it is based on 2 main concepts: Does a player have a NBA position and can he recreate his role? This is the Evan Turner rule. 6’7" guys with massive usg% are amazing in college, but what will a 6’7" wing player with a so-so NBA handle and no outside shooting do in the pros? This is one of the areas where, I believe, lots of pro projections get lost in the mix. You can be the best so-and-so in the world, but if you can’t do such-and-such in the pros....well, you get the picture.

I make a number of assumptions about what correlates with a solid transfer of production from college to the pros. I assume that the best players get to the NBA as quickly as possible and that is why I give a lot of stock to 18 year olds putting up good raw numbers. I assume that it is possible for an especially physically gifted player to beast on college kids on bad teams or in bad conferences so I give a lot of stock to position and role.

I also assume that there is something of an unquantified bonus to "doing s**t". I know that each individual statistic correlates to NBA success at different rates, but I think that one of the best indicators of pro basketball success is a simple question of how much a player does while on the court, not just score. "Doing s**t" suggests a high BBIQ and movement. It suggests drive and effort and coachability, and I believe it does so on a level that is much more reliable than the good ol’ eye test or post-workout dinner at Manny’s. This is one area where I think the wrong question is being asked of the data. Instead of looking for correlation of individual stats, I think the key is to look for the correct relationship between overall activity on the court and to then weigh it against efficiency, which is the 2nd part of the Hoopus Score.

The efficiency score isn’t that much different from the raw score except that I use per possession stats from Kenpom and weigh for position (i.e. bigs’ rebounds aren’t worth as much as guard ones, and so on and so forth). This is the 2nd way to look at a player with the score. How efficiently do they do their job and how much are they called upon by their team to do it?

The 3rd way of using the score to look at a player is to add both scores together and to look for red flags like a 7 footer with a very low block% or a point guard who turns the ball over on more than a quarter of his possessions.

I think that’s about it. Oh, one more thing: I am of the firm belief that all high-level basketball is on its way to a three position game, with lead guards, wings, and bigs being the three positions on the court. The ½ and ⅔ and ⅘ have become so blended that I figured players should start to be judged as such.

Anywho....let’s get to the scores. We’ll start with the raw scores.

Top 10 raw bigs:

1- Thomas Robinson, Kansas (51.65)
2- Tony Mitchell, North Texas (51.55)
3- Doug McDermott, Creighton (50.77)
4- Jared Sullinger, OSU (50.675)
5- Mike Scott, Virginia (49.95)
6- Mike Moser, UNLV (49.125)
7- Anthony Davis, Kentucky (48.7)
8- Herb Pope, Seton Hall (47.725)
9- Royce White, ISU (47.725)
10- Draymond Green, MSU (46.275)

Top 10 raw lead guards:

1- Damien Lillard, Weber State (51.15)
2- J’Covan Brown, Texas (41.25)
3- Scott Machado, Iona (41)
4- Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas (40.325)
5- Tu Holloway, Xavier (37.775)
6- Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (37.075)
7- Kendall Marshall, UNC (33.75)
8- Myck Kabongo, Texas (29.85)
9- uhhhhhh...this is a terrible year for lead guards. That’s pretty much it.

Top 10 raw wings:

1- Tony Wroten, Washington (45.03)
2- Dion Waiters, Syracuse (44)
3- Will Barton, Memphis (43.8)
4- Harrison Barnes, UNC (43.8)
5- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky (43.2)
6- Quincy Miller, Baylor (42.975)
7- Branden Dawson, MSU (41.5)
8- Marcus Denmon, Missouri (41.2)
9- Orlando Johnson, UCSB (41.175)
10- Jeremy Lamb, UCONN (41.175)

Here are the top 10 Hoopus Score bigs:

1- John Shurna, Northwestern (39.6)
2- Royce White, ISU (38.1)
3- Mike Scott, Virginia (37.3)
4- Tony Mitchell, North Texas (33.1)
5- Rodney Williams, Minnesota (32.7)
6- Anthony Davis, Kentucky (32.44)
7- Draymond Green, MSU (31.6)
8- Mason Plumlee, Duke (31.57)
9- Cody Zeller, Indiana (30.77)
10- Patric Young, Florida (30.03)

Top 10 Hoopus Score lead guards:

1- Damian Lillard, Weber State (40.92)
2- Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (34.56)
3- Scott Machado, Iona (32.72)
4- Tu Holloway, Xavier (32.10)
5- J’Covan Brown, Texas (30.37)
6- Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas (27.69)
7- Myck Kabongo, Texas (27.55)
8- Kendall Marshall, UNC (24.14)
9- Yeah....about this lead guard class

OK, on to the combined top 10s. Here are the bigs:

1- Mike Scott, Virginia
2- Royce White, ISU
3- Tony Mitchell, North Texas
4- John Shurna, Northwestern
5- Thomas Robinson, Kansas
6- Anthony Davis, Kentucky
7- Jared Sullinger, OSU
8- Draymond Green, MSU
9- Doug McDermott, Creighton
10- Mike Moser, UNLV

Lead Guards:

1- Damian Lilliard, Weber State
2- Scott Machado, Iona
3- Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin
4- J’Covan Brown, Texas
5- Tu Holloway, Xavier
6- Tyshawn Taylor, Kansas
7- Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
8- Myck Kabongo, Texas
9- ummmmm....

Wings:

1- Dion Waiters, Syracuse
2- Marcus Denmon, Missouri
3- Will Barton, Memphis
4- Tony Wroten, Washington
5- Orlando Johnson, UCSB
6- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
7- Quincy Miller, Baylor
8- Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette
9- Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt
10- Harrison Barnes, UNC

OK, a few things before we move on. Please remember what questions we’re hoping to answer with this score. We’re not trying to say who is the best player. We’re trying to figure out which players can do what they did in college...in the pros. There is no way on god’s green earth that John Shurna is better than Anthony Davis. What there is is a possibility that John Shurna can be a decent bench player who can pass the ball well and make some spot up shots in the pros. Again, this is just a different way of looking at players (players we can’t possibly see every minute of action of, btw) in a way that gives us a way of replacing (and hopefully beating) the eye test. Think of it like NBA Braille.

Now that we have that taken care of, let’s look for some red flags and/or points of interest. We’ll start by taking a look at who does a bunch of stuff off the ball.

Top 10 blocks %+ steals%

1- John Henson, 12.5
2- Andre Drummond, 11.2
3- Festus Ezeli, 10.9
4- Bernard James, 10.9
5- Tony Mitchell, 10.8
6- CJ Leslie, 9.4
7- Terrence Jones, 9.2
8- Rodney Williams, 8.8
9- Meyers Leonard, 8.8
10- Herb Pope, 8.4

The first wing to make an appearance on the list is Branden Dawson, with 8.3. Dion Waiters also comes in above 7 with a 7.9 score. After that, you have to go allllllll the way down to Michael Kidd Gilchrist with 5.9 to see a wing put up a lot of blocks and steals.

As for bigs, this is where you start to worry about guys like Perry Jones (4.4), Patric Young (5.4), and Mike Scott (3), who is near the top of our score board. Ditto for Doug McDermott, who is the lowest rated player (not just big) in this category, with an astounding .4 score in this category. If you want to draft Doug McDermott to shoot the ball and not do a lot else, have at it. If you want to draft Doug McDermott to be a big time rotation player, well....this is a gigantic red flag.

Now let’s take a look at offensive rebounding. I give extra credit to guards and wings on the offensive boards. In order to keep the score somewhat balanced, wings get their oreb% multiplied by 1.4 while the lead guards get doubled. Here are the top 10 offensive rebounders:

1- Branden Dawson, 19.32
2- Tyler Zeller, 15.8
3- Andre Drummond, 14.8
4- Ricardo Ratliffe, 14.4
5- Andre Roberson, 14.3
6- Michael Kidd Gilchrist, 14.14
7- Bernard James, 14
8- Arnett Moultrie, 13.7
9- Kevin Jones, 13.6
10- Herb Pope, 13

Other wings that made the 10+ mark: Jeff Taylor (12.6), Will Barton (12.32), Quincy Miller (11.48), and....ok, I’ll give Harrison Barnes an honorary spot with (9.94).

Sub 10 bigs of note: Perry Jones (9.9--seriously, do not draft this guy), John Henson (9.6), John Shurna (5.3), and Rodney Williams (8.5).

The best rebounding lead guard is Scott Machado of Iona. Have I mentioned that this isn’t the draft you want to use to look at lead guards? I think you can make a very good case that not a single lead guard should go in the first round.

OK, now let’s take a look at who can put the rock in the hole. Here are the top 10 efg performers:

1- Ricardo Ratliffe, 75.1!
2- Tony Mitchell, 70.2
3- Doug McDermott, 68.1 (40-77 on 3s---this is D-Will territory)
4- Cody Zeller, 65.2
5- Patric Young, 63.3
6- John Jenkins, 62.4 (82-186 on 3s and 56-101 from 2)
7- Mason Plumlee, 61.8
8- Rodney Williams, 60.8
9- Jared Sullinger, 60.7
10- Hollis Thompson, 60.6

Other players of note: Jeff Taylor has finally learned how to hit the 3 (.463) and is +11 with 60.1. Jordan Taylor, Tu Holloway, Myck Kabongo, J’Covan Brown, and Kendall Marshall are all shooting an efg below 50%. So is Herb Pope (49.3). James McAdoo has an efg of...wait for it...39.8%. He is a 6-9 power forward. Run away.

One thing I like to keep track of is finding guys who play a large chunk of their team’s minutes without using a lot of possessions. If these guys also happen to "do s**t", then we bump them up the list. Here are the top performers who had a high ratio of % min/%poss:

1- Kendall Marshall, 4.98
2- Elijah Johnson, 4.5
3- Anthony Davis, 4.1
4- Rodney Williams, 4.1
5- Doron Lamb, 4.1
6- Jeremy Lamb, 4.0
7- Kevin Jones, 3.95
8- Hollis Thompson, 3.75
9- Bradley Beal, 3.75
10- Scott Machado, 3.71

OK, this is where you should start to get geeked about Anthony Davis. He has a top 10 raw score, Hoopus Score, he does stuff off the ball (7.3 blocks/steals, 12.1 oreb), he shoots well (65% efg), and I have a fairly decent feeling that he will be able to do what he is doing in Kentucky in the pros. Another thing that makes me very optimistic about Davis is that he was a 6’1" guard before experiencing a huge growth spurt in HS. He isn’t the type of guy who was able to beast on opponents because of his size and size alone. He actually had to develop some skills as a HS guard before becoming...well, huge.

Let’s start to put all of this together. Here’s how I’m breaking things down by position.

Bigs:

1A- Anthony Davis
1B- Thomas Robinson
3- Jared Sullinger
4- Royce White
5- Tony Mitchell
6- Mike Moser
7- Draymond Green
8- Tyler Zeller
9- John Henson
10- Mike Scott

Bigs to keep an eye on: Mike Scott, Doug McDermott, JaMychal Green, Herb Pope, Ricardo Ratliffe, Mason Plumlee, and Arnett Moultrie.

Bigs to be weary of: Perry Jones, Patric Young, Kevin Jones, Andre Drummond, Alex Oriakhi, James McAdoo, Festus Ezeli, Cody Zeller and Terrence Jones

Wings:

1- Quincy Miller
2- Will Barton
3- Michael Kidd Gilchrist
4- Tony Wroten
5- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6- Marcus Denmon
7- Jeremy Lamb
8- Jeffery Taylor
9- Harrison Barnes
10- Orlando Johnson

Wings to keep an eye on: Doron Lamb, Terrence Ross, Hollis Thompson, Kris Joseph, Branden Dawson, and Darius Johnson-Odom.

Wings to be weary of: Adonis Thomas, Austin Rivers, CJ Wilcox, LeBryan Nash, Bradley Beal, and John Jenkins.

Lead guards: Do not draft a lead guard in the first round of this draft. We’ll just cut these guys out altogether as the Wolves clearly don’t need a PG.

Soooooooo...where does this leave us?

If all of these guys come out this year, and if the Wolves can get the Utah pick, they should have a crack at a decent player, probably somewhere in between Ty Lawson and James Anderson (for those of you keeping track with "should have" teen picks in the past few years).

Maybe someone like Will Barton, KCP, or Jeremy Lamb will slip down. The Wolves don’t need a lead guard and they probably won’t have a crack at one of the top bigs, so we’ll probably either be looking at them drafting the best available wing or, if my worst current fear about the draft comes true, the most long and athletic looking big man on the board.

We’ll see what happens and I’ll update the board at the end of the year.

Is there anyone you think I need to add to the list?

What say you?

Even Steven

2012-02-05T04:35:30Z

Here it is. The last game the Timberwolves were above .500 after the New Year, January 22, 2007.

	Basic Box Score Statistics
Starters	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Kevin Garnett	41:54	8	16	.500	0	3	.000	1	1	1.000	1	10	11	2	1	2	3	2	17
Ricky Davis	41:06	10	16	.625	4	8	.500	8	9	.889	1	1	2	3	2	1	4	1	32
Trenton Hassell	40:58	2	7	.286	0	0		0	0		0	4	4	5	1	0	2	2	4
Mark Blount	34:22	4	9	.444	0	0		3	4	.750	1	5	6	0	1	1	1	2	11
Mike James	25:32	4	10	.400	1	3	.333	1	1	1.000	0	4	4	6	1	0	1	2	10
Reserves	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Randy Foye	22:28	4	8	.500	1	3	.333	0	0		0	0	0	3	0	0	1	4	9
Craig Smith	10:41	1	3	.333	0	0		0	0		0	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	2
Mark Madsen	9:03	1	1	1.000	0	0		1	4	.250	2	1	3	1	0	0	0	2	3
Troy Hudson	7:50	0	5	.000	0	1	.000	0	0		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Marko Jaric	6:06	1	1	1.000	1	1	1.000	0	0		1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	3
Team Totals	240	35	76	.461	7	19	.368	14	19	.737	7	28	35	20	6	4	15	17	91

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/4/2012.

	Basic Box Score Statistics
Starters	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Deron Williams	38:21	9	16	.563	1	3	.333	2	2	1.000	0	3	3	15	2	1	0	2	21
Derek Fisher	36:28	3	10	.300	0	1	.000	3	4	.750	2	2	4	7	1	0	0	3	9
Mehmet Okur	34:38	10	16	.625	4	6	.667	4	5	.800	0	5	5	0	0	1	1	2	28
Carlos Boozer	32:49	9	14	.643	0	0		0	0		1	4	5	3	1	0	1	3	18
Andrei Kirilenko	29:08	3	5	.600	0	0		1	3	.333	0	5	5	0	0	1	4	1	7
Reserves	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Matt Harpring	26:28	5	9	.556	0	0		1	1	1.000	1	2	3	1	2	0	1	4	11
Jarron Collins	15:51	1	1	1.000	0	0		0	0		1	1	2	3	0	0	1	3	2
Gordan Giricek	13:35	3	7	.429	0	1	.000	0	0		1	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	6
Paul Millsap	12:42	2	3	.667	0	0		0	0		0	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	4
Team Totals	240	45	81	.556	5	11	.455	11	15	.733	6	26	32	30	7	4	8	19	106

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/4/2012

What was going on way back in January of 2007? The financial collapse was still several months off into the future, President Bush was still in office, Senator Obama was facing the charge of attending a Muslim madrassa while in grade school, the US had a tough weekend in Al Anbar province, an airplane skidded off a Milwaukee runway, Ramon Ortiz signed with the Twins, Stomp the Yard and Alpha Dog were in theaters, Katherine McPhee was your American Idol, and somewhere in a Lake Oswego High School hallway, Kevin Love was having to resist a strong urge to step on the face of Lupe, an exchange student from Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Looking around at the game thread and Twitter, I see that there is a lot of pearl clutching about Kevin Love putting his boot in Luis Scola's chest (and face!). Please, get it out of the way quickly. Here....here's a virtual fainting couch where you can rest your weary head until you get your vapors under control.

Ready? Great.

This is the game the Wolves got out of the ranks of the losers. It isn't the game where the piss-poor referees in a piss-poor shortened season let a game get completely out of hand as two really scrappy and good players hacked the living hell out of each other. Once Love had his outrageous 3 oreb-toss-it-up-lay-up possession, and once he followed it up with a Paul Bunyan ax chop that received no whistle...well, either it was going to end with a punch, a nut-punch, a head-hunting foul, a kick, or, in this particular case, the guy on our favorite squad stepping on the chest (and face!) of Luis Scola. One way or another, it was going to end ugly. Love was the ugly ender. He'll get fined or suspended or whatever. He'll probably even apologize. (The refs didn't even see the play, just like they didn't see the ax chop, the jersey grabs, and the extraordinary amount of hacking that led to the unfortunate situation where the players had the green light to do whatever they wanted to. I'm fairly certain Love could have brought back the Bruce Bowen flying face kick and got away with it with this crew.)

Anywho.

I don't really know what to say about this particular moment. It's been a loonnnnnnnnnnnnng road back to .500 and the people who have stuck with this franchise over that time have seen some terrible basketball. Look at that roster from Casey's last game. Look at the 4th worst 2 year stretch in league history (the last 2 years). Look at the worst coach in team history trying to coach up the worst pick in team history. Look at Sam I Am and Spree devolving into Mike James and Ricky Buckets. Look at Wrong Gator, McFoye, Ryan Hollins' favorite color, Stewie, Witt, Cupcake, Brewsists, Jonny Stops, Roy > Foye, DMC vs. Wes, PGs and PFs, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry, raise your hands, windows of opportunity...it goes on and on and on and on.

I don't have much to say about this particular game. I plan on remembering as much about its specifics as I did about Casey's Last Stand. Your and my favorite team is back at .500. They have two stud players and a developing big. If Love starts to build his cheap shot sample size to the level of this guy then I'll start to pay more attention. Until then, .500...enjoy it without worrying about something you aren't going to remember a few months from now anyway. Love is the guy who is learning a lesson here, not you. Save the scolding for another day and enjoy the new view.

Until later.

2nd half thread: .500 within reach

2012-02-05T02:10:35Z

And just like 31/31, it isn't available on local TV.