Clips Nation

Warning: Rough Road Ahead!!

2012-02-14T22:00:29Z

As of this morning (Tuesday, Feb 14) the Los Angeles Clippers are 17-9. That's 17 out of 26 for a winning percentage of a little over 65%. If the Clips keep winning at the same rate they'll win around 43 games, equivalent to around 53 games in an 82 game season. I worked out these numbers a few minutes ago and it made me feel good. If anyone told me the Clips would do that well at the beginning of the season, I'd have taken it.

But then I made a mistake and I happened to glance at the Clipper's schedule for March and April. Make the jump for the bad news.

Here's the Clipper's schedule in Google Calendar. You're in February, but tap the blue right arrow at the top to jump ahead to March...

Did you do that? Good! Now take it in for a few seconds.

Huh?!!? Wha!!!? Holy cow!!! Look at this mess!! Twenty games in thirty one days! Six back to backs and a back-to-back-to-back! Never more than a single day off in-between! The team starts off the month with a six-game road trip, and the triple-nighter is entirely on the road, three cities in three nights.

But, it's okay, right? Because April's bound to be better, plenty of time to tweak the rotation, and angle for the perfect playoff seed, right? Wrong. Fourteen games in twenty-five days including FOUR MORE back-to-backs. March and April are a gauntlet, a hatchet war, humans versus hordes of robot zombies... you get the picture.

I think rather than concentrating on winning games in March and April the Clipper's coaching staff should be carefully monitoring minutes, abandoning certain games in the third quarter, preserving easy wins against soft opponents, and quitting on tough games in back-to-backs. The Clips have a few important players with significant injury history (Griffin, Paul, Butler), and those guys HAVE to rest if the Clips hope to make any noise in the playoffs... assuming they make it to the playoffs... if the schedule-makers have their way, they won't.

That 65 percent winning percentage? That's probably not happening. Tweaking the rotation? Angling for a good seed? Survival will be the name of the game.

Chris Paul and J.R. Smith - Long Time Teammates?

2012-02-14T17:33:27Z

As has been widely reported for awhile now, Chris Paul is actively trying to recruit his former teammate, free agent J.R. Smith, to join the Los Angeles Clippers. Smith is currently playing his final game in China any minute now, and will apparently be back in the US some time Wednesday. Presumably he would be deciding between offers from the Clippers and the New York Knicks and other suitors shortly thereafter.

Paul's association with Smith as a former teammate is being played up as a major factor in all of this. Consider this line from Marc Stein's story: "'Who knows J.R. better than me?' Paul said of Smith, his teammate for two seasons with the Hornets." Ramona Shelburn of ESPN LA has been on top of this story as well, and on Monday she wrote "Like Billups did with recently-signed Kenyon Martin, point guard Chris Paul has taken a lead role in recruiting Smith .... The two are close from their two seasons as teammates with the Hornets."

So that seems really important right? Those two seasons they played together with the Hornets? Just one problem. They only played one season together with the Hornets.

Smith was part of the 2004 draft where Dwight Howard was the first pick and eight high schoolers were selected in the first 20 picks, Smith himself going 18 to New Orleans. Paul was in the 2005 draft, selected fourth by the Hornets. Smith was then traded to Chicago in July 2006, eventually landing to Denver a week later. So Paul and Smith played just one season together, 2005-2006, as teammates in New Orleans. Or really, as long as we're nitpicking, in Oklahoma City, since that was directly after Hurricane Katrina and the Hornets temporarily relocated.

Not that this invalidates the original point or anything. Paul and Smith were a couple of 20 year olds, living the dream playing NBA ball. They were the two youngest Hornets, and formed the team's starting backcourt for much of the season. They no doubt grew extraordinarily close in that situation. If CP3 says he knows J.R. Smith as well as anyone in the league, who am I to say different.

But they originally grew close playing together one season with the Hornets, not two. Just so we're clear.

Eric Gordon to Have Knee Surgery -- Out Another Six Weeks

2012-02-14T07:21:31Z

The Hornets announced today that Eric Gordon, acquired from the Clippers as the key piece in the trade that brought Chris Paul to LA, needs arthroscopic surgery on the right knee that has already kept him out of all but two games this season. If his post surgery recovery goes has planned, Gordon could be back on the court for the final 20 games of the season.

You have to feel sorry for Gordon here. He's in the final year of his rookie contract, and was unable to reach an agreement on a contract extension with the Hornets. Three other members from his draft class, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love have signed massive extensions with their clubs. Gordon was teammates with those three on the Team USA that won a Gold Medal in the World Championships in Turkey in 2010, but he's still waiting for his next NBA contract -- and missing games could very well be costing him money. He'll be an ~~unrestricted~~ restricted free agent in July and may yet get a big offer sheet from a team like Indiana, but it's also possible that teams will be hesitant to spend big money on a player that just missed most of the season with knee trouble.

You also have to feel sorry for the Hornets. David Stern and the NBA seemingly drove a very tough bargain in trade negotiations with the Clippers. But with Gordon injured and Chris Kaman not fitting into their long term plans, the big prize from that trade at this point is Al-Farouq Aminu. Yikes. Of course, it serves NOH's purposes pretty well to be terrible this season, and collect as many ping pong balls in the lottery as possible, so maybe this will all work out.

The Clippers on the other hand came out of this whole situation smelling like a rose. Paul has been as good as advertised if not better, and the team has come together quickly with his leadership on the floor. Giving up Gordon seemed difficult at first, but it was always going to be able to resign EJ, while paying Blake Griffin and Paul and DeAndre Jordan and Caron Butler. Now Gordon is missing most of the season for another team, not for LA.

Adjusted Point Differential and Pythagorean Wins

2012-02-14T06:44:46Z

More terrific statistical work from Citizen BelgianClipper, who apparently has a little too much time on his hands and some truly mad Excel skillz. Dude, step away from the keyboard. Maybe go see the sights. I hear the canals in Bruges are nice. Steve

Fellow citizens,

This is a follow-up fanpost on this fanshot which Steve so graciously promoted to the front page (thanks) - (you're welcome).

First off, I'm adding the Adjusted Point Differential for all NBA teams. I have also added this to the original fanshot but some of you might not have seen so:

How to read this

the 76ers have a actual point difference of 9.11 but the average team would be expected to have a point diff of 1.41 against their opponents. Thus their adjusted point difference is 7.70. The last 2 stats are the difference between their actual points and points expected for and against. This has the nice effect of dividing the Adjusted Point differential between offence and defence. Thus the Sixers have an Adjusted Point Diff of 7.70 which is composed of 2.11 points of offence and 5.59 on defence.

Secondly, Citizen Bandany wondered how this would effect Pythagorean Wins.

I'm using Basketball-reference.com method to expand this topic

W PythPythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS14 / (Tm PTS14 + Opp PTS14)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable.

this leads to the next table

Act pyth is the Pythagorean Wins calculated using the actual point difference. Act/exp pyth is the Pythagorean Wins calculated by dividing the the actual point per game for and against by the respective expected values. Using this measure you get a corrected Pythagorean Wins which takes in account the strength of the opposition. If we compare both calculations you see that the Clips would be expected to have won 0.807 games more if we use this last calculation. the last 2 columns compare these calculations with the actual number of wins. it is a bit weird that the Clips get harped because of their point differential whilst OKC, even without adjustments, have by far the greatest difference between their actual wins and Pythagorean Wins.

Well now I went completely mad: using the expected points values I calculated the Pythagorean Wins the average team would have against the opposition each team faced (exp pyth). In golf terms: par for the course. Then I compared them to the actual wins and the adjusted Pythagorean Wins. To counteract the difference in number of games I divided those comparisons by the number of games each team has played. "W vs exp pyth" per game essentially gives an indication by how much a team exceeds their expected Pythagorean Wins. "Act/exp vs exp" compares the adjusted Pythagorean Wins against the expected Pythagorean Wins. This could be seen as some sort of "objective" evaluation of a team results. The "mean" in the regression to the mean idea.

Dallas Mavericks 96 Los Angeles Clippers 92. Clippers Come Up Short in Rematch of Western Conference Powers

2012-02-14T04:58:11Z

In spite of not playing particularly well, the Clippers almost stole this game from the Mavericks. Here is the box score for anyone who missed it. Full recap after the jump.

When the Clippers and Mavericks last played at Staples Center, they were was without Chris Paul. Despite not having their superstar, the Clippers were in control for much of the game, and managed to secure a victory behind the late game heroics of Chauncey Billups. This time around, with Paul back and without Billups, there would be a different dynamic on the floor, and the Mavericks had a game plan that was simple, take away Chris Paul and make the rest of the team beat you. Rick Carlisle put Shawn Marion on Chris Paul from the outset and clearly they were determined to collapse on him in the key and take away his penetration. This resulted in very few free throws and easy buckets in the early going for the entire Clipper roster, and a quiet offensive game for CP3.

The side effect of this defensive strategy is that you are going to give up some looks from outside, and Caron Butler took full advantage, knocking down 5 3's tonight. Caron Butler's shooting out of half court sets and Mo WIlliams ability to knock down 3's in transition kept the Clippers in the game in the first half. That said, it's not a terrible strategy against this Clippers team. Blake Griffin had a nice first half with 12 points, but by double teaming Chris Paul it becomes difficult for Blake to get the easy points that Paul creates for him. Of course taking away Chris Paul isn't exactly an easy thing to do. Dallas is by no means the only team that has tried to slow down Chris Paul this season. It was a solid individual effort by Marion and a terrific team effort on the part of the Mavs. They brought a double team at the top of the key and the Clippers were largely unable to figure it out for long stretches. This is where Vinny Del Negro needs to earn his paycheck. Until the last few minutes of the game, it never seemed that the Clippers knew what they wanted to do against this defensive look, and never did anything to force Dallas to change. The Clippers found a way to stay in the game, capitalizing on offense when Marion was out, and playing some nice defense to close out the third quarter. The Clippers would enter the final period with a two point lead and the ball but were unable to capitalize on the momentum.

In spite of turnovers, missed free throws, defensive breakdowns, and a solid fourth quarter by Dirk Nowitzki, the Clippers were not out of this game until the very end. Down 6, with under two minutes to go, the Clippers beat the high double team that had flustered them all game by flashing Kenyon Martin to the free throw line, who then hit a slashing Blake Griffin for the dunk and a foul, and Blake would convert the free throw. After a stop on the other end, Paul would find Kenyon Martin for a quick layup cutting the lead to one. Dirk would push the lead to three with a 15 footer towards the end of the shot clock. On the ensuing possession, Paul found Kenyon Martin again cutting to the rim, but the play resulted in a crucial no call, with Dirk getting away with a pretty obvious foul. The Clippers then had to foul, and Dirk pushed the lead to 5. Even then, the Clippers found a way to hang around.

A three pointer by Paul cut the lead to two. After a Dallas time out, the Clippers stole the inbound pass. Rather than calling a timeout to diagram a play, the Clips paused the ball forward and Paul found Caron Butler for a terrific look at a three, which somehow rimmed out. Whether or not the Clippers should have called a time out is a question of basketball philosophy. The purpose of calling the timeout is to get a good look. Clearly, that wasn't necessary, as they were not going to get a better look than they got. You could certainly argue that they could have gone for two and played for overtime, but there's no guarantee that they would have gotten an easy look out of an inbounds play in the half court against that Dallas Defense anyway.

Now I am not one to blame the refs for losses. I think Dallas deserved to win this game, but its hard to ignore a couple of big plays down the stretch. First, Kenyon Martin got whistled for a foul on a three point attempt by Dirk Nowitzki. Very questionable call in my opinion, and very likely a makeup call for Superstar Dirk, who complained on a previous possession that Reggie Evans had hit him on the elbow on a shot he made. On top of that, Kenyon Martin does not get a whistle on a made shot under two minutes, and then doens't get a whistle on a blatant foul by Dirk under two minutes. Again, Dallas outplayed the Clippers, and even with the officiating this the Clips had a chance to win this game, but those three plays are a little difficult to ignore when the result was as close at it was.

Some thoughts:.
Blake Griffin Free Throws:

It seemed Blake Griffin had turned the corner on his free throw shooting in the last few games. There was a big time regression tonight, with Blake going 2 for 9 (though he did make his last 2). When Blake was struggling at the beginning of the season, I felt it was because he was not shooting in one fluid motion. He would bend his kneed, bring the ball above his head, then stop his motion, and shoot entirely with his arms. This inevitably leads to streaky shooting. By adding the dribble to his shot in the last few games, he seemed to reduce that pause, and he was in a little bit more of a rhythm when he released. Tonight he was not following through on his shot, causing him to shoot his free throws short. He will fix that too, and the fact that he stepped up and made two free throws at the end is a great sign of his own confidence. Blake will be a good free throw shooter, its just a matter of time and practice.

Dallas bench:

The Dallas bench is strong, with Terry, Odom, and

It was a tough loss but overall the road trip has been a success, particularly when considering the loss of Chauncey Billups. Hopefully, they will bounce back against the Wizards Wednesday Night.

Clippers at Dallas - Second Half Open Thread

2012-02-14T02:45:04Z

Use this thread for comments during the second half of Clippers-Mavs.

Clippers at Dallas - Open Thread

2012-02-14T01:15:04Z

2011/2012 NBA Regular Season
	vs.
17-8		17-11
American Airlines Center
February 13th, 2012, 5:30 PM
FSN Prime Ticket, KFWB 980 AM
Probable starters:
Chris Paul	PG	Jason Kidd
Randy Foye	SG	Vince Carter
Caron Butler	SF	Shawn Marion
Blake Griffin	PF	Dirk Nowitzki
DeAndre Jordan	C	Brendan Haywood

The Back Story:

January 18th, 2012 in Los Angeles - Clippers 91 - Dallas 89, Recap Box Score

The second half thread will publish at 6:45.

Chatting with the enemy: Mavs Moneyball

The Daily Clipper - Late Monday Edition

2012-02-13T19:13:36Z

Sorry for the late DC! Had to attend an 8am meeting! 8am on a Monday morning!!!? WTH!?

Lots of links today!

Clippers' Ralph Lawler has always been at the top of his game - latimes.com
From Dallas -- I'm going to tell you a few things about Clippers honk Ralph Lawler you probably don't know.

Griffin next on Mavs' gauntlet | Mavericks/NBA | Sports News and Videos on the Dallas Cowboys...
All-Star stretch run starts with a visit by the Clippers.

Clippers can contend without Billups - Yahoo! Sports
You're watching Clippers can contend without Billups-NBA video:

Clippers FYI: Randy Foye settling in as a starting guard - latimes.com
Randy Foye, who's started all four games since the Clippers lost Chauncey Billups to a season-ending injury, says he's getting used to expanded role and increased attention, but team still comes first.

Los Angeles Clippers Tie Buffalo Braves For Best Start In Franchise History - SB Nation Los Angeles
News, analysis and opinion from the fan perspective.

NBA Preview - Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks - Feb 13, 2012 - CBSSports.com
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul say their partnership continues to be a work-in-progress, but it's been pretty impressive on the Los Angeles Clippers road trip.

Los Angeles Clippers Schedule: Week of Feb 13-19 - NBA - Yahoo! Sports
There are some important games coming up for the Los Angeles Clippers over the next week. Three of the four games for the Clippers come against teams that look destined to make the 2012 Western Conference Playoffs. It begins on Monday night (Feb. - National Basketball Association news

Bill Lyon: Iverson on the rocks
He always did have a craving for ice and rarely hesitated to indulge it. That ice is melting now. So diamonds, it turns out, really are not forever.

Loss at Cleveland motivates Clippers to take on Dallas - latimes.com
Reporting from Dallas -- The Clippers ' only defeat on their current trip, at Cleveland on Wednesday, has resonated all the way to Dallas.

SLAM ONLINE | " Stack’s Stats: Shooting Struggles Reign
Not sure if any citizen put this on a fanshot, but I missed this Q&A with our favorite play-by-play man...

Will DeAndre Jordan ever make an All-Star Game? - Clippers blog : The Orange County Register
As expected, no one from the Clippers joined Chris Paul and Blake Griffin on the Western Conference All-Star Team Thursday when the reserves were announced (see the rosters here)....

Taking Ineptness to New Lows - NYTimes.com
Through Thursday's games, the Charlotte Bobcats owned the league's worst record, at 3-22. But that only begins to describe how bad Charlotte has been.

Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke - NYTimes.com
Since the 1985-86 season, 41 players have had such a streak as the one Lin has just had for the Knicks. It is an extremely impressive list.

Hoops-Nation — Chris Paul Recruiting J.R. Smith To Clippers
Hoops-Nation.com is the home for basketball fans worldwide. We're the fastest basketball source on the planet, sharing basketball news, rumors and much more. We are also the largest basketball community & forums on the web!

Chronicles Of Crotty #96: It Was A Good Day – The No-Look Pass
KEITH CLOSS: "For one, I didn't think I had any problem with drinking. You know, because I was a youngster... I just thought I was having fun."