The Crawfish Boxes

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, May 27, 2012 3:10 PM CDT

2012-05-27T20:10:04Z

Current Series

3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium

Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes @ Los Angeles Dodgers True Blue LA Friday, May 25, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Dodger Stadium Lucas Harrell vs Clayton Kershaw Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. Complete Coverage >
Sat 05/26		9:10 PM CDT
Sun 05/27		3:10 PM CDT

J.A. Happ

#30 / Pitcher / Houston Astros

Height: 6-6

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 19, 1982

Chris Capuano

#35 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 19, 1978

2012 MLB Draft Profile: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)

2012-05-27T19:00:21Z

Summary

Lucas Giolito is one of the more elite arms in this year's draft. He has a fastball that sits in the mid 90s, a sharp breaking curve ball that he throws at 81-82 mph, and he's got a change up that he doesn't use a whole lot at the high school level. He was pitching well for a few starts at the beginning of the season, flashing his fastball at 100mph and showing enough potential to be considered as a possibility of 1-1 in the MLB first-year player draft in June. That is until he had to leave a game with arm discomfort. An MRI the next day showed something disconcerting; he had a strained sprained ulnar collateral ligament. What this means is that he will most likely need to have Tommy John surgery in the near future. This brings up several questions.

Will he have an injury-prone career? This is surely something Jeff Luhnow and Bobby Heck are asking themselves. The Astros can't afford to pick a player who will be injury-prone with the first-overall pick. In the past when teams have picked high-school arms who had injuries around draft time, there were a few players who suffered repeated injuries. Namely such a pitcher was Kyle Gibson of the Twins who had a stress fracture in his pitching arm while he was drafted. He was rated #4 overall in the 2009 draft, but dropped to 22nd overall to the Twins in the draft. He pitched for a year and a half until he needed Tommy John surgery. He will miss all of the 2012 season. Such risks like these are something that the Astros probably don't want to deal with on the first pick of the draft, especially considering the time needed to develop him since he's a HS arm, and the potentially loss of time if he ever has to have Tommy John surgery.

Floor

Well, if we're thinking of an absolute worst case scenario, taking in consideration his current development and injuries, he could end up being a minor league relief pitcher with poor command. Or, a more likely floor scenario would be that he would make a good major league bullpen relief pitcher.

Ceiling

Giolito is very projectable with a big 6'7'' frame and two really really good pitches in his fastball and curveball. He's young and if he can gain better control of his pitches and develop his changeup further, he could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher when all is said and done. Think of Justin Verlander.

Projected Draft Round

Giolito will most likely be a top-10 pick in the first round, with Keith Law suggesting he could be a top-5 pick overall. As of 9 days ago, Law has Giolito going #3 overall to the Mariners. Giolito has a lot of potential, but what may be holding him back is his injury history, as well as injury potential. As we saw with Anthony Rendon last year, he dropped all the way to the Nationals, but this year Rendon has another ankle injury. Injury will probably be a key factor when teams are looking to draft in the first round.

Will he sign?

Well, if the Astros pick him, I can see Giolito signing unless he feels he is being low-balled for money. I don't really know if this is what the Astros will do, but if Scott Boras is his agent, he can say hello to his college commitment, UCLA. If he feels his signing bonus may be a bit low, he could go to college to raise his stock. However, there is only so much he can do and the potential for him dropping to a later slot in the draft a couple years from now could be a bit high. With the new salary caps, if I were him, I would try to sign now.

Bibliography after the jump

Videos

Commentary

Baseball Prospect Nation:

If healthy, easily the top high school arm in the draft. One of very few prospects in this draft with even an outside chance to develop into a number one starter. Doesn’t require a lot of projection to see two 70-grade pitches. CH could be a third plus pitch in time, giving his arsenal depth and plenty of ability to keep hitters off balance. Command is still developing but has projection. Excellent body and long term physical projection, despite present injury concerns. Easy projection as a number two starter with some feeling that he could up that if the command and CH come along as hoped. Potential front of the rotation piece with All-Star and Cy Young possibilities.

ESPN:

Giolito isn't the first pitching prospect to be hit with an injury, and he certainly won't be the last. No matter how fluid and easy a delivery appears, the pitching motion is still an unnatural act for the body. And for all the swings and misses that come with being able to hit triple digits on the radar gun, that amount of power puts even more strain on the shoulder and elbow. The number of pitchers whose promising careers have been sidetracked or stalled by injury is astronomic. For every hit (like Justin Verlander, the first pitcher picked in the 2004 MLB draft), there's at least a couple misses (like Bryan Bullington and Kyle Sleeth, the first pitchers chosen in 2002 and 2003, respectively). And more often than not, those misses are due to injury rather than a lack of talent.

Diamond Prospects:

At 6'7" Lucas Giolito has projectability written all over him. When you see that he already reaches 96 MPH with his fastball and has room to add on 25-30 pounds to his frame, you understand why he is considered one of the top prep prospects for the 2012 Draft. Giolito has a smooth delivery and has taken great strides in repeating it. He also features a power 12-6 curveball that has plus potential and an improving change that features depth and could also be a plus pitch. His command could use some work and he could incorporate his lower half more to help maintain his mechanics. He threw a no-hitter in the spring and it will be interesting to see how he fares with Team USA 18U squad in the fall. No 2012 prep pitcher has more upside than Lucas Giolito and he is definitely one of the top follows over the next year.

Abad to DL and X. Cedeno Called Up to Bullpen

2012-05-27T18:55:05Z

Abad to DL and X. Cedeno Called Up to Bullpen

LH relief pitcher Xavier Cedeno is called up from Oklahoma City, and Fernando Abad is placed on the DL for right intercostal strain. Cedeno's stats have been good this year in AAA, with a 3.38 RA/9 and a 23% K rate. This news comes from a Alyson Footer tweet. In another tweet, McTaggert says that the Astros also have signed 30 year old RHP Brian Bass, who was playing in Korea this year and will now report to Oklahoma City.

2012 MLB Draft Profile: Lance McCullers Jr., Tampa Bay, FL

2012-05-27T18:00:17Z

Summary

Lance McCullers Jr. has dominated his competition this spring and put up incredible numbers for his high school. McCullers has one of the better fastballs in the draft, which sits in the 94-96 range and has been clocked higher than that. His next best weapon (perhaps his best weapon) is a sharp two-plane break slider that could be a plus-plus pitch. He also features a curveball and a changeup, but is much more inconsistent with those pitches.

One of the concerns with Lance is that at 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds there is not as much room for projection within his frame, and that leads to injury and durability concerns. Another concern with McCullers is that there is some effort to his delivery, and he has trouble throwing from the same arm slot consistently. This leads to command and control issues, and there are times when he completely loses the strike zone. He possesses enough athleticism that it is possible for him to improve his mechanics and also find a repeatable arm slot which may improve his control over time. He is definitely a high ceiling very low floor type of pitcher, but most scouts have his future pegged as a reliever.

Floor

As mentioned above injury concerns are high with McCullers due in large part to his high effort delivery and not so projectable frame. There is a chance that he is the type of arm that flames out long before the majors. Given the fact that he has two plus pitches right now his floor could be that of a late inning reliever if he is able to make it to the majors.

Ceiling

Though he is an extremely high risk pick, the reward may be worth it if he is able to stick as a starter. His fastball-slider combination can be deadly, and if he can become more consistent with his curveball and changeup then he has the potential to be very tough to beat. He would also have to improve his mechanics consistency and also find a repeatable arm slot. According to Keith Law McCullers has been moving up draft boards all spring and has more scouts believing that he will be able to stick as a starter.

Projected Draft Round

Lance McCullers is projected to be drafted in the first round. Both Keith Law and Baseball America had McCullers going eleventh overall.

Will he sign

McCullers has a committment to the University of Florida. The question here probably lies with where he is drafted. If he is picked where he is projected then he would probably sign, but if he slides a little then he may choose to play college ball and build up his stock.

Bibliography after the jump

Video

The son of former MLB pitcher Lance McCullers Sr., McCullers has potential as a power bat, but his fastball has sniffed triple digits and he's flashed an above-average breaking ball. Scouts are split on his future as the spring nears, but he's a surefire first-round arm, and could break into the top 10, for clubs that view him as a long-term starter. The Florida commit struck out 79 in 52 innings last year while hitting .422 with seven homers and 24 RBIs. --Jason A. Churchill

Delivery/Mechanics: Simple lower half with consistent movements and good balance. Struggles with consistency in upper half; shows shoulder turn at times, while staying in line to the plate at others. Arm slot varies regularly. Excellent arm action with plus-plus arm speed. Drop and drive guy that pushes hard down the plane of the mound. Has effort in his delivery and has an inconsistent finish as a result. Looks down at the top of his delivery, losing his target. Would be helped by picking up his target sooner. - Baseball Prospect Nation

McCullers' arm action has some length thanks to a huge degree of scapular loading present in the pick-up phase of his delivery. It is a little atypical, think Daniel Hudson except from a 3/4 arm angle, but not necessarily a bad thing. He appears to have pretty good timing, strong hip rotation, and keeps his front side closed pretty well. He throws with some effort, which again isn't always a bad thing. There will be some who want to knock McCullers' mechanics but, unless we see something different in the future, we won't be among them. - Project Prospect

2012 MLB Draft Profile: Max Fried, LHP, Harvard Westlake HS, CA

2012-05-27T17:00:14Z

Summary

Max Fried is the top prep left-hander in the draft, and probably comes in ahead of Andrew Heaney as the best left-handed pitcher in the draft this year. Fried is an above average athlete, and at 6-foot-4 and 170 pounds, he has a highly projectable frame. Scouts vary on his fastball velocity, but most of the reports that I have read on him have him listed between 88-94. His fastball features nice arm-side run, and he also mixes in a curveball that flashes plus potential with good downward break, but at times he is inconsistent with the pitch. He also has a good feel for his changeup, but it is a pitch that he hasn't needed a whole lot at the high school level.

Fried's stock had been rumored to take a slight dive recently as their were reports of him losing velocity and having trouble with command in his previous two playoff outings. However he rebounded nicely in his next start and his velocity sat in the 90-95 range throughout the outing and also struck out ten.

Floor

With other high school arms the injury concern is there with him. As a lefty right now that is seen with a lot of tools and projectability, there is the chance that he doesn't develop as expected and never makes it out of the minors. If his velocity remains inconsistent, or sits at the lower end of his projected range, and the command issues continue to pop up from time to time then he could struggle as a starter.

Ceiling

Fried has all the makings as a No. 2 starter in the majors with three above-average to plus pitches depending on how he develops. As his body continues to develop the velocity and command should become more consistent which is why expectations are so high for the young left-hander. He seems to have decent pitching mechanics which should limit some of the injury concern as well.

Projected Draft Round

Max Fried is projected to be drafted in the first round. Baseball America had him going seventh to the Padres in their latest mock draft, and Keith Law had him going ninth to the Marlins.

Will the Astros draft him

Its highly unlikely since he really isn't a candidate for the first overall pick and wouldn't last until the supplemental rounds.

Will he sign

Fried has a strong committment to UCLA, but is expected to get drafted high enough in the first round to lure him away from college.

Bibliography after the jump

Video

Keith Law

He'll pitch at 89-93 with little effort and very good life to his arm side (albeit less to his glove side). Hitters don't pick the ball up out of his hands, helping it play above his velocity. Fried's curveball, while not completely consistent, can show very sharp downward break in the 73-76 mph range, ocassionally getting slurvy up towards 77-78. He has great feel for his 81-83 mph changeup with deception from his arm speed and late run (harder than the usual fade on a changeup).

Jason Churchill

Fried is a fastball—curveball--changeup southpaw with projection in his 6-foot-4, 170-pound frame and a present fastball that has hit 94 mph. He's part of UCLA's tremendous recruiting class but is a good bet to go in the top half of the first round.

Baseball Prospect Nation

Delivery/Mechanics: Arm works very well. Has some trouble maintaining a consistent arm slot but that should come with improved coordination as he matures. Length of arms and legs can be distracting to hitters and gives him some deception. Some scouts would like to see him employ a quicker tempo throughout his delivery. Finishes in an athletic position and gets off the mound well.

2012 MLB Draft Profile: Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon HS (Ohio)

2012-05-27T16:00:22Z

Summary

Matthew Smoral was once considered to be interchangeable with Max Fried as the top High School LHP. That was until this season when he has struggled with some blisters and a foot injury. His first game of the season was cut short in the fourth inning due to blisters causing him to lose control and rely solely on his fastball that was a little slower than normal. It's one start, but that can hurt your stock when about 30 cross-checkers are in attendance.

What makes him such a prospect? Just look at him. He stands 6-8 and weighs 225 pounds...soaking wet. He's long and lanky, but is working hard to gain weight and it's paying off. Despite being from Ohio, he worked out this summer in Houston with David Evans while playing with the Houston Heat traveling baseball team. That's where he met Mitchell Traver, whom David profiled yesterday. He focused on getting stronger, using his legs, and repeating his mechanics to control his secondary pitches. Sounds like a perfect goal to me for a high school kid.

Despite not pitching a whole lot this season, it looks like he is repeating his low 3/4 arm slot. His mechanics look pretty clean as well. There are a few flaws, like being too stiff and losing his balance in the follow through, but those issues are improving. His plant foot is also inconsistent causing him to land with his stance a little open as well. All of these are minor issues that a professional pitching coach can get cleaned up in Instructional League since he is an athletic kid.

His fastball ranges in the low 90's in most starts and can touch 94. From the left side, that is great velocity and because he has a good frame, he likely could hit that velocity more consistently. His second best pitch is a slider. With his low arm slot, he gets really good movement on it, but the issue is that his arm slot causes him to get too much on the side of the ball at times so the pitch has great horizontal movement, but lacks in vertical drop. Change-up is really raw but shows good signs. He hasn't used it much in a lot of his big starts, so it's pretty hard to project.

Floor

He already has an injury history from this season with a foot injury. Guys this large can struggle with lower extremity injuries, especially with the feet. That lowers his floor quite a bit. But, you have to think that with a fastball in the mid-90s and a real good slider that can dominate hitters, you have to like him as a late inning bullpen guy, or the best LOOGY you can find.

Ceiling

If the fastball velocity does improve and the change-up becomes an above-average pitch, your looking at a top of the rotation pitcher. His upside is the reason his name is usually associated with Max Fried when talking the 2012 draft. Fried is much more polished, but Smoral could have better upside in the long term. His low arm slot and repatoire has earned him some comps to Madison Bumgarner, I wouldn't mind that.

Projected Draft Round

Originally tagged as a top 15 pick, Smoral figures to drop into the second half of the 1st round with a small chance of the supplemental round. If he were to last that long, this is the only time in which the Astros would likely consider drafting him. I just can't fathom him lasting to the second round.

Will he sign?

Probably. He's committed to University of North Carolina which is a solid commitment, but he seems dedicated to the game and wants to apply himself to it professionally right now. Although, if the injury makes him fall too far, going to college and proving his health could skyrocket his stock.

Bibliography after the jump

Perfect Game

Matthew Smoral is a 2012 LHP with a 6-8 225 lb. frame from Solon, OH who attends Solon HS. XX Tall build, wide hips, narrow upper half with lots of room to grow, young body. Tall balanced delivery, low effort, very loose and free arm, clean arm circle, 3/4's arm slot, occasionally falls off on release, throws from the 3B side of the rubber and loses angle to his pitches, especially to left handed hitters. 90-93 mph fastball, touched 94, flashes hard boring life at times, good sink at others. Curveball has hard plus spin when thrown hard, will let up on curveball at times, rare change up. Better command of pitches to right handed hitters, tends to pitch passively to left handed hitters. Very high ceiling talent, has all the tools. Good student, verbal commitment to North Carolina. Named to the Perfect Game All American Classic team.

ESPN

Smoral made just three outings this spring before his season ended due to a stress fracture in his right (and thus landing) foot that occurred when he was pitching on a makeshift mound in a game played on a football field in March. Before that, Smoral had pitched like a potential top-10 overall pick, touching 95, sitting 89-93 with plus life and a hard out-pitch slider, even showing the ability to pitch to his glove side with the fastball.

Baseball America

Smoral has an imposing presence on the mound, standing 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds. His height along with his low three-quarter arm slot from the left side makes him tough to pick up. His stuff doesn't make it any easier for hitters. Smoral throws a fastball in the 89-92 mph range and tops out at 94. Smoral also throws a slider in the 81-84 mph range and a changeup with similar velocity. His low arm slot causes him to sometimes get around his slider, but when he stays on top of it, it's a tight pitch with late break. Like many big pitchers, Smoral is still growing into his frame and learning how to control his delivery. He currently lands a little open and a little stiff, sometimes stumbling off the mound in his follow through. This causes his control to come and go, but when he's on, his stuff is dominating. Smoral has the athleticism to smooth things out. His father, Steve, was a basketball player at North Carolina State, but Matt is committed to North Carolina.

2012 MLB Draft Profile: Walker Weickel, RHP, Olympia HS (FL)

2012-05-27T15:00:04Z

Summary

This guy is a Bobby Heck Special. Projectable? Check! Athletic? Check! Clean Mechanics? Check! Curveball? Check! Feel for a change-up? Check! Pitchability? Check Mate! Walker Weickel has everything that fits the Bobby Heck mold. Weickel stands 6-6 and weighs just 205, so there is some mass that can be added to his frame, although he doesn't look overly lanky. But, with his height and already a frame that looks strong, he can put on some good weight and possibly a workhorse type pitcher. But, it's not really his frame that really stands out, it's his great arm speed.

Mechanically, he looks pretty clean. The high arm slot comes with a little bit too much arm abduction, but doesn't look terrible. Like I said, the arm speed is great and his arm wrap looks a little violent at times, but is likely a product of the arm speed. I wouldn't call it a concern. He has a high leg kick and a good stride that allows him to land very balanced on his plant leg and can get it a defensive position. He is athletic, so he repeats the delivery and he has a full arm circle so his timing is pretty consistent and control isn't wild.

His fastball sits in the low 90's, and I've seen some reports saying as low as 89-91, but most agree with 91-94. While it's not eye popping, it is above average for a HS kid. He doesn't muscle it up there as he has that great arm speed and really hits those velocities with ease. With arm speed like his, and a projectable frame, he could add a few ticks in pro baseball. Because of his high 3/4 arm slot and possibly even considered over-the-top, he has a great downward plane that makes the pitch play up, despite not having a lot of movement. I'm always reminded of a friend of mine that played Division I ball that said he hated facing really tall pitchers because all you do is pound their fastball into the ground. With Weickel's height and high release point, he is that kind of pitcher.

With his arm slot, it's not surprising to see his next best pitch is a curveball. He has good 12-6 break but the pitch can get a loopy at times. It's a work in progress, but the pitch flashes plus potential. He obviously has work to do to refine the pitch, and has come a long way in improving his arm speed on the pitch as it was a little slower on the curve than the fastball this time last year.

He has a feel for a change-up, and it flashes above-average to plus potential. He has good speed separation but lacks great command on it right now. As things stand right now, it's a distant third pitch by most reports, but the potential is there.

Floor

You'll get tired of reading this, but with HS guys, failure to reach the majors is possible. But, his floor as a major-league pitcher is probably as a groundball specialist. The plane for his fastball is great, which could even land him in a set-up role. It would also depend on which secondary develops more. Likely, it's the curve which could lead to a lot of groundouts as well. I don't expect him to be an absolute strikeout phenom though.

Ceiling

It's a stretch to say he has the ceiling of an Ace, but a very good #2 pitcher is a nice tag to put on him. It's hard to throw a real good slider from his arm slot, which is what he would likely need with all of his other pitches maxing out their potential to be an Ace. But, three above-average to plus pitches will get the job done. And, for young guys like him, it's not far fetched to suggest adding a fourth pitch, but for him a cutter is the most likely pitch.

Projected Draft Round

Weickel has been mocked as high as a top 15, but will likely be a late rounder with a small chance of reaching the supplemental round. He definitely won't reach the 2nd round, in which he'd be a steal in.

Will he sign?

He doesn't look like a signability risk. He'll likely be easier with the higher he's drafted. The new rules make it a little more difficult to sign him if he slides, but I don't see him sliding due to signability risks.

College Commitment: University of Miami (FL)

Bibliography after the jump

ESPN Profile

Perfect Game Profile

Minor League Ball: High School Prospects 1-5

Baseball America

Astros History: Cesar Cedeno's Career WAR

2012-05-27T11:00:05Z

Here's an interesting thing. One of the best all-around players in Houston Astros history collected just 47 bbWAR in 11 seasons for Houston. That's right, Cesar Cedeno averaged just about 4 WAR per season with Houston, which means he was an average All-Star during that time, per the stats.

Except that he was much, much better than that. Cedeno was one of the best players in the league, combining power with speed and great defense. Why doesn't that show up in his WAR totals?

It does and it doesn't. Only three Astros position players have more total WAR than Cedeno, but his seems low, considering Jeff Bagwell has over 30 more WAR despite playing a less important position. What's going on here?

Well, it goes back to how Baseball Reference calculates their version of Wins Above Replacement. For the fielding component, BBRef uses Total Zone rating, which tries to make comparisons for how many plays a guy "should" have made without having data specifically for that.

That leaves Cedeno at a loss, since he never posted one defensive WAR total above 1.0 in a single season. To put that in perspective, Chris Young led the National League in defensive WAR last season at 2.6. Michael Bourn currently leads the league with 1.3 dWAR through a quarter of the season.

By every measure of him at the time, Cedeno played excellent outfield defense. He won five Gold Gloves in his career. That's not necessarily a great way to judge defensive skill, but beside the Gold Gloves, he had a great defensive reputation. Just look at this takeaway from an interesting article in The Hardball Times:

A sabermetrician will look at Cesar Cedeno, and will see him utterly differently thanks to park and league adjustments and a willingness to cast aside language barriers, off-the-field problems, and preconceived notions of his "potential." That sabermetrician will see a remarkable player who could beat you in innumerable ways. Cedeno could beat you with a single, a double, a home run. He could beat you by stealing a base, beat you by drawing a walk. He could beat you with his stellar outfield play too, with a catch or a throw.

And, yet, we see a very average player in his WAR totals. Let's sub in a guy like Andruw Jones' defensive WAR for Cedeno's. Jones compiled 24 dWAR in his career in the outfield. That's an average of just under 1.5 dWAR per season, which if we give Cedeno over his 11 seasons in Houston, would raise his bbWAR up to 65 instead of 47.

At 65 career WAR, Cedeno jumps to second place on the all-time just, ahead of Craig Biggio and just behind Bagwell. I may not have seen him play, but that feels right to me.