The Crawfish Boxes - All Posts

Sanchez returns, Astros O and a comedy of errors dry out the Marlins 8-2

2025-08-04T20:25:51-05:00

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Wow, offense!

Today, Jason Alexander(1-1, 7.27 ERA, 20 SO) and the Astros began a 3-game road series against the red-hot Miami Marlins and starter Sandy Alcantara.(6-9, 6.30 ERA, 81 SO) This game was significant for a number of reasons, one of which being the return of newly acquired left handed OF Jesus Sanchez, as this was his first game against his former team since the trade deadline last Thursday. The most important aspect of this game though, was the fact that the ‘Stros entered loanDepot park licking their wounds after a disappointing 3 game sweep at the hand of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway.

The Marlins came into this series as winners of their last 5 in a row, including their own 3 game sweep of the New York Yankees. (Their 1st sweep of the Yankees in franchise history) Miami was also riding the wave of reaching .500 baseball for the first time since April, so you know them and their fans came in feeling rejuvenated and hungry for even more success against a team in Houston who hasn’t seen consistency since before the All-Star break.

With the Astros losing their last 3 in a row, and dropping 3 of their last 5 in series play, something had to give. Especially, considering the Mariners are right in the rearview mirror with only a 2.5 game division lead deficit after they recently took 3 of 4 from the Texas Rangers.

First pitch: 5:40PM, CST

Through the first 2 innings, Alexander and Alcantara pitched to a 0-0 stalemate, with the only hiccup being a Jose Altuve fielding error in the bottom of the 1st on a Agustín Ramírez ground ball to 2B. (No significant damage happened) To this point in the ballgame, Alexander had 2 strikeouts to his credit, while Alcantara managed to get away with a few loud contact outs via a Carlos Correa flyout and two lineouts by Christian Walker and Victor Caratini in the 2nd.

Then, in the top of the 4th, the wildest thing happened. The Astros managed to explode for 5 runs in the inning, matching their complete run total from their last 3 games combined. Here’s the breakdown:

The action started with a Jeremy Peña double(his 19th, which leads the team), followed by a Jesús Sánchez double to score Jeremy and make it 1-0 Astros. (By the way, if you ever needed an indication of how bad this Astros offense has been, Jeremy got HBP in the ribs on June 27th and was put on IL for about a month and some change, yet he STILL leads the team in doubles.)

Jesus Sanchez with an RBI double off his former team pic.twitter.com/BPFTASiaqs
— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) August 4, 2025

The vibes continued when Jose Altuve laid down a perfect bunt to successfully reach 1st base and advance Sanchez to 3rd, putting runners on the corners. Then, after Altuve stole 2nd base, Carlos Correa whacked an RBI-single to left field to score Sanchez and advance Altuve to 3rd, Astros then up 2-0. Christian Walker then scored Altuve after a funky force out situation in which two Mariners defenders got crossed up at 2B as Correa was called out and Walker made it safely to 1B. Astros up 3-0(!) More offensive prosperity happened, with Caratini lining a single to right field and Yainer Diaz putting the finishing touches on via a ground ball double to left field to score both Walker and Caratini to make it 5-0 ‘Stros. (This marks the 1st time the Astros had a 5+ run lead in 4 games, since beating the Nationals 9-1 on July 31st.)

YAINER DIAZ DRIVES IN 2 MORE
⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️
It's a 5-run 4th for the #Astros in Miami

Join us on SCHN@astros I #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/RYybsGvYKv
— Space City Home Network (@SpaceCityHN) August 4, 2025

Two consecutive strikeouts by Taylor Trammell and Cam Smith then ended the dream inning, which was the complete inverse of their nightmare 4th against Boston yesterday.

Through the bottom of the 5th, Jason Alexander was having the best game of his major league career, flummoxing Marlins batters while giving up only 1 hit, no walks, no runs, and 6 K’s on only 67 pitches.(The 6K’s tying his career high)

Jason Alexander entered tonight with a 7.36 ERA. His line: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB, 11 whiffs! pic.twitter.com/Bsp8meTpTx
— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) August 5, 2025

Things got rocky for Jason in the bottom of the 6th however, when the bases were loaded after two singles by Kyle Stowers and Agustín Ramírez and a drawn walk by Liam Hicks. Alexander escaped though! Getting Otto Lopez to ground out on a Peña throw to 1B to end the threat.

Jason’s day was done, finishing with a sterling 6 innings of 0 run ball, complete with 3 hits, 0 walks, 6K’s, and lowered ERA from 7.27 to 5.97. (This was also his 1st career start giving up 0 runs) His counterpart Alcantara then returned to the mound in the top of the 7th to try and keep a lid on the Astros after their explosive 4th. This would not prove to be a fruitful decision for the Marlins.

Because, after a Cam Smith infield single to leadoff the inning, Jeremy Peña smoked an RBI-double to left field to score Cam from 1B, making it 6-0 ‘Stros. (Scott Boras must be licking his chops right now. I would agree, pay that man!)

That would be the end of the scoring though, as two flyouts by Altuve and Sanchez, and a generous strike 3 call on Correa by HP Ump Lance Barrett, ended the inning. This would all but spell the end of Sandy Alcantara’s night, with a closing stat line of: 7 IP, 9 hits, 1 walk, 5 K’s, 6 runs, and his ERA being raised from 6.30 to 6.44.

Bryan King then entered the game for Alexander to begin the bottom of the 7th. And unfortunately, he proceeded to immediately break the shut out by giving up back to back homers to pinch-hitters Javier Sanoja and Derek Hill to lead off the inning, making it 6-2 Astros. After consecutive strikeouts by Dane Myers and Eric Wagaman, an Xavier Edwards double extended the inning and brought Kyle Stowers up to bat. That would be all though, as King finally got out of the inning by getting Stowers to line out to Sanchez in left field to end the inning.

The offense continued adding runs in the 8th inning, this time courtesy of reliever Cade Gibson. After Christian Walker struck out to leadoff the frame, Victor Caratini was HBP and awarded 1B. Pinch-hitter Mauricio Dubón then doubled to left field to score Caratini, making it 7-2. (I didn’t mention the mental lapse at 2B by SS Otto Lopez, forgetting to tag Caratini at 2B for the potential double play to save the score) Cam Smith then joined the party by adding a bloop single to right field that Dane Myers couldn’t hang onto, upping the score to 8-2.

CAM SMITH RBI!!! pic.twitter.com/F81bdBmNgs
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) August 5, 2025

Jeremy Peña then grounded into a force out of Cam Smith at 2B to end the inning.

Bryan Abreu then entered the game in the bottom of the 8th, walking Agustín Ramírez to begin the inning. The would-be baserunner didn’t last long though, as another Marlins mental lapse occurred that involved a Liam Hicks single to left field that ended with Ramírez running himself into a Carlos Correa induced out at 2B. Why? Because baseball, that’s why. Otto Lopez and Javier Sanoja then flew and popped out respectively to end the inning.

A quick top of the 9th for the Astros offense led to a Héctor Neris appearance in the bottom of the inning to try and close out the fish, and that he accomplished in short order.

A Derek Hill ground out, followed by back to back strikeouts of Myers and Wagaman, finished off the Marlins and ended the game with the Astros victorious by a final of 8-2.

Jason Alexander(2-1) got the win tonight, as Alcantara(6-10) and the Marlins saw their winning streak snapped at 5 games. This also marked the 1st Astros win on the road during this current road trip that started August 1st in Boston. Along with Alexander, Jeremy Peña was the player of the game on offense, going 2-4 with 2 Doubles, 1 walk, and 1 RBI.

The Astros will face RHP Cal Quantrill tomorrow in game 2, while not yet announcing who will toe the rubber on their part. They will hope to build on today’s momentum and start a new winning streak with their 2nd in a row.

BOX SCORE

Game 113 Thread. August 4, 2025, 5:40 CT. Astros @ Marlins

2025-08-04T15:21:20-05:00

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Jason Alexander goes against Sandy Alcantara

Tomorrow morning, SB Nation will complete its transition to a WordPress platform. You will need to initiate a new login process after that time, which should be very easy to do.

I believe the changes will be beneficial to you and will provide members with greater access and engagement. There will probably be some growing pains, so please be patient.

Here are tonight’s lineups.

Astros Prospect Report: August 3rd

2025-08-04T11:45:38-05:00

Photo by Vanessa Buentello/Minor League Baseball

See how the prospects performed last night.

Another day of Astros minor league baseball in the books! See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (53-52) won 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Ivey started for Sugar Land and was solid tossing 5 scoreless innings. The offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Melton RBI single. In the 7th, Matthews added an RBI double. The bullpen closed it out as Sugar Land won 2-1.

Note: Bastidas has 30 doubles this season.

Jacob Hurtubise, RF: 2-for-3, R, 3B
Brice Matthews, 2B: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI, BB
Jacob Melton, CF: 1-for-3, RBI, BB
Jesus Bastidas, DH: 1-for-3, 2B, BB
Luis Guillorme, 3B: 1-for-3, BB
Bryan Lavastida, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, SB

Tyler Ivey, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (WIN)
Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Nick Robertson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Rhett Kouba, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Tayler Scott, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (35-66) won 6-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning on a Ferreras RBI double and Clarke RBI single. They picked up another run in the 2nd inning on a Willits RBI single. The offense added 3 runs in the 6th inning on a Clarke RBI double, Baez RBI groundout and Johnson RBI single. Dombroski started for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 1 run over 5.2 innings. Bido tossed 2.1 scoreless innings and Perez worked a scoreless 9th as the Hooks won 6-1.

Note: Dombroski has a 3.72 ERA in Double-A this season.

Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-3, R, 2B, 2 BB
Pascanel Ferreras, 2B: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
Orlando Martinez, LF: 1-for-4, R, 2B, BB
Wes Clarke, 1B: 2-for-3, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
Ryan Johnson, SS: 1-for-2, R, RBI, BB
Bryce Willits, 3B: 1-for-4, RBI

Trey Dombroski, LHP: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (WIN)
Anderson Bido, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-57) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

True got the start for Asheville and tossed 4 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts, though he walked 4. After a scoreless inning from Leach, Pena came in to pitch and allowed 3 runs in the 7th. The offense rallied in the 9th scoring 2 runs on bases loaded walks but left the bases loaded as they fell 3-2.

Note: Bush has a .811 OPS in High-A.

Will Bush, C: 1-for-3, R, BB
Lucas Spence, CF: 1-for-3, R, BB
Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, BB, SB
Luis Encarnacion, 1B: 0-for-3, RBI, BB
Drew Vogel, SS: 0-for-2, RBI, 2 BB

Derek True, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Alain Pena, RHP: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (53-47) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

Ogando started for the Woodpeckers and went 4 innings allowing 1 run. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Huezo bases loaded walk. In the 4th, Luciano added an RBI single. The offense got some insurance in the 7th scoring 2 runs on an error and a run on a wild pitch. Almonte tossed 3 scoreless innings and Mercedes closed it out allowing 1 run over 2 innings as the Woodpeckers won 5-2.

Note: Huezo is hitting .500 in Single-A.

Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-4, R, RBI, BB
Jancel Villarroel, RF: 2-for-4, R
Hector Salas, LF: 1-for-3, R, BB, SB
Arturo Flores, 1B: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB, SB
Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-3, R, RBI, BB

Joan Ogando, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 BB
Dawil Almonte, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
Abel Mercedes, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

Series Preview/Adversary Recon: Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins

2025-08-04T11:30:00-05:00

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

The Astros take their talents (and 3-game losing streak and injuries) to South Beach to visit the Marlins

The trip to Boston outright sucked. Next stop on the 9-game road trip: a visit to the Marlins.

Marlins Record:

55-55 (3rd in the AL East) 8.0 GB, 6.0 GB of the last NL Wild Card
Home Record: 27-29 (Astros Road Record: 27-26)
Record vs. AL West: 4-5 (Astros vs NL East: 7-2)
Last 10: 8-2 [WWWLLWWWW] (HOU: 2-8 [LLLLLWWLLL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: First meeting
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 81-88
Playoff Record: N/A

Marlins Season to Date: Perhaps the biggest date on the Marlins’ seasonal calendar was the trade deadline that came and went. Sure, the Marlins made a few moves, to include sending Sanchez to the Astros for a few players, like pitcher Ryan Gusto. However, their biggest supposed trade chip, former Cy-Young winning pitcher Sandy Alcantara did not leave Miami. Granted, he is coming off of UCL surgery, and is still trying to get back to his previous form. As for the rest of the season, well, again, what does it say that the trade deadline was the biggest part of the year? Surprisingly, the Marlins are not in last place in the NL East. Now that they are hanging around .500, they aren’t completely out of the Wild Card race, surprising as that might seem. There are some talented pieces on the roster, but 2025 was never meant to be a playoff season. Could this be another surprise playoff run ala 2023?

Marlins Leaders

Offense:

HR: LF Kyle Stowers (24)
RBI: LF Kyle Stowers (67)
BA: LF Kyle Stowers (.295)
OPS: LF Kyle Stowers (.942)

Pitching:

ERA: Sandy Alcantara (6.36) [Based on eligibility for ERA title and who is left on the Marlins roster after trades/etc]
Wins: Sandy Alcantara (6)
Saves: Calvin Faucher (11)
WHIP: Anthony Bender (1.01)

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Mon, Aug 4 @ 5:40 p.m. CDT: Jason Alexander (1-1, 7.36 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 6.36 ERA)
Tue, Aug 5 @ 5:40 p.m. CDT: TBD vs. Chad Quantrill (4-8, 4.79 ERA)
Wed, Aug 6 @ 3:40 p.m. CDT: Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.62 ERA) vs. Jason Junk (5-2, 3.86 ERA)

Marlins Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Augstin Ramirez (.243/.288/.469)
1B: Eric Wagaman (.233/.277/.340)
2B: Xavier Edwards (.293/.359/.362)
3B: Graham Pauley (.211/.272/.298)
SS: Otto Lopez (.249/.320/.383)
LF: Kyle Stowers (.295/.374/.568)
CF: Jakob Marsee (.400/.667/.800)
RF: Dane Myers (.251/.304/.346)
DH: Liam Hicks (.263/.358/.379)

Marlins Offense: Astros fans could recognize some of the issues with the Marlins offense. They get hits (10^th in MLB in BA), but they don’t translate as many of those hits into runs (20^th in Runs Scored). Several other stats (25^th in HRs, 18^th in OBP, 19^th in SLG), are in the bottom half of the league. That is with Kyle Stowers raking as he is. Still, there are some promising players that can hit on the roster. Once they get players on base, the Marlins rank 13^th in stolen bases with 83, so they can move guys once they are on the bags. Still, the offense is not what is carrying the Marlins at this time.

Marlins Pitching/Defense: This is what is keeping Miami alive in the NL playoff picture (and why many covet Marlins players). This might seem an odd thing to say, given that the season-long stats for the Marlins pitching (24^th in ERA, 19^th in WHIP, 22^nd in BAA) and given the struggles of pitchers such as Alcantara. However, recent activity indicates that either the pitching staff is on a major heater, or that they just got off to the most horrid of starts and they are coming around. They finished July with a collective 2.60 ERA, the best month in franchise history. While Alcantara has struggled this season, he has shown signs of recapturing his previous form. Additionally, fellow trade prospect Edward Cabrera is also dealing as of late. Given that neither will go anywhere before this offseason, Miami will look to ride their arms to either a surprise playoff run or pump up their trade value significantly. The Marlins possess the 17^th ranked bullpen, sporting a 3.95 ERA. Their primarily relivers are Faucher at closer, with Ronny Henriquez and Anthony Bender in the setup roles. As for backing up the arms, the Marlins rate 20^th in fielding and errors, so they don’t offer a lot of help to the rotation.

Photo by Jared Lennon/Getty Images

Most Dangerous Player: LF Kyle Stowers. You could consider one-time Astros trade target Alcantara, but may as well go with the most consistent player on the Marlins roster right now. Since coming over in a trade deadline deal in 2024, Stowers initially struggled for the Marlins, but definitely settled into South Beach this season. His overall strong performance led to his 1^st All-Star selection. Stowers is 5 of 14 against Houston, with 2 runs scored. However, he hasn’t faced the Astros since 2022. Given the way things have gone for Houston, Stowers might add to those stats.

Injuries: Like everyone else, the Marlins have their share of injured players. Their medical notables:

OF Derek Hill (finger); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: August 2025
P Ryan Weathers (Lat); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September 2025
P Jesus Tinoco (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September 2025
P Andrew Nardi (back); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: August 2025
OF Griffin Conine (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
3B Conner Norby (hand); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: August 2025
P Max Meyer (hip); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Braxton Garrett (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles: Coming into this season, Miami figured to be another also-ran, likely to generate headlines via if/when they traded stars like Alcantara. At the trade deadline, they did more selling than buying. Yet, things are looking more akin to 2023, when they overachieved, vs. 2024, when they fell apart. The Marlins have won six straight series and are not completely out of the playoff picture. While playoffs are not likely, the Marlins are far more dangerous than most other teams playing out the string. The combination of high-end starters and young guns seeking to improve and finish the year strong offer some hope for the future of the Marlins. One might argue that between the Heat, Dolphins and Marlins, the Marlins have the best aura of the three at this time.

Series Outlook: Supposedly, the Astros “won” at the trade deadline, bringing in Sanchez from the Marlins, along with Correa and Urias. Yet, that has been the only winning the Astros have done since the calendar turned to August. They got swept in Boston, and their division lead is now down to under 4 games. Sure, players like Pena are coming back into the fold, but Houston is 7-15 in their last 22, not what you want to see from a playoff contending team who is also now over the CBT. Contrast with the Miami Marlins, who come in with major momentum (see the six series wins), the last of which came at the expense of another playoff contender: the New York Yankees (more on them in an upcoming preview). Also, Miami can be a tough place for the Astros, and for a team stumbling and bumbling through a rough patch, a hot Marlins team with nothing to lose is far from an ideal cure for their on-field ills.

How to Watch/Listen:

HOUSTON:

Watch: Space City Home Network
Listen: KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3 FM

MIAMI:

Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Florida
Listen: FOX Sports 940AM (WINZ), WAQI 710

Houston Astros Boil: August 4, 2025

2025-08-04T09:30:00-05:00

Welcome to the Monday Boil

It’s the Monday Crawfish Boil!

Houston Astros News

Injuries and roster moves

Recap

Correa’s reaction to third (MLB)

Plenty of Houstonians were in Boston for Correa’s debut (KHOU)

Astros acquire John Rooney for Marlins (TR)

Astros release Narvaez (TR)

AL West News

Angels win capped off by walk-off from Ward

Perkins gets first start in Athletics loss

Mariners outrights (TR)

Rockies claim Crim

MLB News

Miz to IL

Latest MLB power rankings

Julio hits #100

Yanks activate Gil (MLB)

Sox Release Syndergaard (TR)

Phils get rid of Mercado (TR)

Houston Astros birthdays

RHP Roger Clemens (63)

RHP Scott Linebrink (49)

RHP David Martínez (38)

OF Zach Cole (25)

RHP Jank Pichardo (21)

What to expect from returning Astros’ starting pitchers?

2025-08-04T09:00:00-05:00

Spencer Arrighetti pitching on April 9 at Minnesota. | Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Astros need the rehabbed starting pitchers to be effective

The Astros hoped to nab a starting pitcher at the trade deadline—and they attempted t do so. But the trading cost apparently was too high. Now the Astros are left hoping that reinforcements from their injured starting pitchers will help save the season.

Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier appear to be the closest to returning to the major league level. The Astros have suggested that Arrighetti could return this week and Javier within the following week. But the pitchers’ latest rehab starts in the minor leagues could affect those predictions. Luis Garcia and J.P. France probably have slightly longer time lines.

Why are these question important? The Astros have two top level starting pitchers, Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but they need five or six pitchers in the starting rotation. So far, the Astros have relied upon 4 essentially rookie starting pitchers to fill that gap: Brandon Walter, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander, and Ryan Gusto. Gusto was traded at the deadline, which leaves Walter, Gordon, and Alexander. However, Walter currently is on the Injured List with arm discomfort, thus leaving the Astros with two replacement starters. It is unclear when Walter might return, but hopefully it will be soon.

The current three replacement starters (Walter, Gordon, and Alexander) have combined for a weighted average ERA of 4.50 and FIP of 5.01. Walter has performed the best (3.35 ERA), Gordon the worst (5.35 ERA), and Alexander in the middle (4.86 ERA). [If Gusto’s 5.45 ERA had been included, the average ERA would be worse.]

You can see the Astros’ immediate dilemma. First, with the exception of the injured Walter, the replacement starters have provided fringy performance, basically “just acceptable” for a major league starter. Second, unless an injured pitcher returns this week, the Astros likely face the need to give a spot start to a AAA pitcher like Blubaugh, which is somewhat risky given his recent minor league appearances.

But how effective will the returning injured starters perform? Two of the injured pitchers (Javier and Garcia) are returning from TJ surgery. Arrighetti is returning from a fractured thumb. Basically the effectiveness of pitchers returning from surgery is uncertain and undoubtedly depends on the players’ individual bodies and recovery. While TJ surgery has a reasonably high percentage of successful outcomes, the relative effectiveness of the rehabbed pitchers will vary. As a generalization, the pitcher’s stuff (velocity and pitch movement) returns first. Pitching analysts frequently say that command and control is the last characteristic to return. So, it’s possible that early in the recovery, the pitcher may have good velocity or pitch movement, but control may require more time to achieve the pitcher’s normal proficiency.

Can we speculate on how effective the returning starting pitchers will be? All we have to look at are the results of the minor league rehab starts. (Of course, the Astros have additional detailed metrics to add to the basic stats.) The minor league rehab results (all levels) are shown below.

Pitcher/ Games / ERA / FIP / K/9 / BB/9

Arrighetti 3G 5.73 / 6.03 / K/9 9.0 / BB/9 4.09

Javier 4G 6.10 / 5.21 / K/9 7.84 / BB/9 9.58

Garcia 5G 3.27 / 4.26 / K/9 11.45 / BB/9 2.45

France 3G 11.81 / 6.29 / K/9 8.44 / BB/9 10.13

It’s also interesting to compare Lance McCullers, Jr.’s rehab starts before he returned from injury this year.

LMJ 4G 2.27 / 3.57 / K/9 9.44 BB/9 4.15

Comparatively, Lance’s rehab starts went much better than the other injured pitchers’ rehab games. However, McCullers’ rehab game results were generally better than what he produced when he returned to the active roster. Maybe this illustrates the limitation of looking at rehab game results, or perhaps it means that we should expect more challenging pitching results when the rehabbing pitcher reaches the majors.

Some observations:

Arrighetti, who is expected to return first has fairly rough results in rehab. The fact that Arrighetti’s results were considerably worse in his most recent AAA start makes me wonder if he is indeed ready to make his next start at the ML level. His control in the AAA start (BB/9 7.71) was pretty bad. It’s worth noting that Arrighetti only pitched two games this year before he was injured, and he didn’t get fully stretched out. Arrighetti’s ERA and x-ERA in those 9 MLB innings were 5.39 and 3.84, respectively.
Javier’s control has never been the greatest (career BB/9 3.88), but his rehab BB/9 of 9.58 is quite high. It remains t be seen if his next AAA rehab start yields improvement in his command and control.
Garcia’s overall numbers which sum all rehab levels look pretty good. However, his one AAA rehab game resulted in worse results, with a 9.59 FIP and 6.75 BB/9. Since his time line is farther out, presumably his future AAA starts will produce better results.
France’s results don’t look great, but he may be returning on a later time line than the other pitchers. He has pitched only 5 innings over 3 games.

I understand that scoring stats from rehab games may not mean very much. However, given that we expect control/command to be the last skill to return, the K/9 and BB/9 results in rehab starts may tell us how the control is progressing. I’m sure that the Astros will rely on the minor league managers and pitching coaches to evaluate the rehab starts. But, on the surface, I have skepticism about the efficacy of Arrighetti and Javier if they return to major league starts this week and next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros required additional rehab starts for them.

But the Astros are in a tough spot and really need the starters back. They might decide that Arrighetti and Javier are likely to produce better results than the replacement rookie pitchers, even if they produce results that are sub-par relative to their norm.

Since we are talking about expectations, we can also look at the Fangraphs Rest of Season projections for the returning pitchers. This may not tell us what to expect in the first game back, but it gives a rest of season impact. I have included Walter here, since he is on the IL and expected to return at some point.)

(ERA / FIP )

Arrighetti 4.44 / 4.48

Javier 4.79 / 4.84

Garcia 4.05 / 4.01

Walter 3.51 / 3.55

France (no starts expected) 4.30 / 4.32 as reliever

Revisiting the HOF Index

2025-08-04T08:00:00-05:00

Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Where does Carlos Correa stand?

I suppose just about every angle has been exhausted from the Carlos Correa acquisition for your Houston Astros. It would be hard for me to add anything new in terms of current analysis. However, if we look at this trade as a free agent acquisition it suddenly makes a lot more sense. If we discount this season we could count it as a three year, 70 million dollar contract with option years tied on the end.

How many teams would be willing to sign a Correa for 3/70? Then, it occurred to me that he might be worth more to Houston than any other team. Of course, there is the fan favorite angle and the fact that the clubhouse seems to love him, but there is also the spector of long-term marketing.

Nothing would make him more marketable than making the Hall of Fame in an Astros uniform. He has only the three plus seasons out of a Houston uniform. If he manages to finish the contract in an Astros uniform that means an additional seven seasons in an Astros uniform according to his contract. The total value of the contract minus the Twins contributions is 140 million over seven seasons. That seems a reasonable enough investment if he turns out to be a Hall of Famer. The question is whether he will be.

For those new to the Hall of Fame index, what we have done is take the Hall of Famers and eliminated players on the upper and lower end of the scale. Anyone more than 20 percent above or below the median have been eliminated. So, what we have left is the garden variety Hall of Famer. The rest represent the top four currently active shortstops.

Obviously, none of them are where the median Hall of Fame shortstop are, but most of them are in their prime or at least close to it. So, we can look and see what any of them might need to get there. If Correa averages a mere 15 home runs, 100 hits, 60 runs and RBI a season for the next seven seasons then he will be over 1000 runs and RBI and close to 2000 hits. He obviously already beats the median in home runs. So, that gets him in the neighborhood.

The same could be said of Trea Turner and Corey Seager. Lindor on the other hand is a lot closer to the mark as he sits. You give him three or four more full seasons and he probably will have the counting numbers necessary. Most of that is due to more durability. As people say, the best ability is availability.

I have done these articles before, but we get new readers every day. The index numbers roughly reveal the same as the counting numbers. Lindor is ahead of the other three and seems like he’s close to a lock to get in. Mind you, being even or better than the median doesn’t automatically make one a Hall of Famer. Being short of that doesn’t mean you aren’t. However, the median seems like a pretty good place to start. If you are near the median in most of the categories then you probably are a Hall of Famer.

Correa is about 25 wins short in the career value category and about 15 short in peak value. If he is able to play those seven seasons then getting 25 additional wins seems perfectly reasonable. That is between three and four wins a season. If a couple of those are five win seasons then his peak value will also go up.

Seager and Turner are in more or less the same boat. Given their general performance the main question is health. Even a mediocre regular is worth between two and three wins a season. Give those players between two and three wins every year for the next six or seven seasons and you are looking at a group of Hall of Famers.

This is what I would call the Craig Biggio conundrum. For most HOF voters, the counting numbers are key. Those only go up. However, the reality is that while players accrue the counting numbers they often see their value numbers leak. Correa is ahead of the curve or close to it according to the offensive numbers. Yet, it seems a lot more likely that he will continue to produce closer to the league average for the remaining seasons. The more seasons he plays the lower those numbers end up being.

Yet, the runs created numbers will continue to rise. If he averages even just 60 runs created in each of the next seven seasons he will end up with well over 1100. Seeing him end up with over 1200 seems like a reasonable get if he remains healthy. Yet, his OPS+ will likely resemble the HOF median.

Of course, the same dilemma faces the other players as well. The same thing happens on the defensive end. The longer you play the more decline you see. So, for players seeking the ultimate honor, there is a delicate balance between playing as long as you can and quitting while you are still near the top of your game.

This is obviously an Astros centric site. So, the Correa dilemma in the fielding department is slightly different than on the offensive end. If his move to third is long-term then we could see something different. He could end up holding his Rfield value or exceeding it at third base even as he ages. Yet, the DWAR and FG can’t help but take a hit. The fourth category is really a throw in.

However, it is more likely that he will improve in that category as well. If we were to use Outs above average we would have an incomplete picture, but it will probably look better than using UZR. So, his fielding legacy will largely depend on which number you look at it. It is highly possible that he could perform at a Gold Glove level at third base and come out looking better reputation wise.

Lindor is more likely to stick at short, so he is more likely to see decline. It comes down to a question of whether you want to compare a player to players at his position or the whole baseball universe. There are no positions more valuable than short defensively. So, Correa will get dinged there.

In his landmark book “Whatever happened to the Hall of Fame?” Bill James asked a couple of key questions. How often was the best player in the league at his position and how often was he the best player in the league? You can also ask about a particular team, but these are all permutations of the same question. How often was the player dominant?

Mind you, the answer doesn’t have to be yes to any of those questions. Some players got into Cooperstown without answering yes to any of those questions. Yet, Correa had the most BWAR in the American League in 2021. Of course, that happened to be the year he became a free agent. It’s weird how that works.

He had 3.0 DWAR (which led the AL) that season and won the Platinum Glove award for the best fielder at any position. The awards test helps us answer the question by providing a point system for how high you finished in the MVP voting or in year to year BWAR. Maybe he gets back into the hunt with a healthy season. Maybe he never gets back into the top ten ever again. Having at least one sabermetric MVP probably helps his candidacy some.

No one can compare with Derek Jeter’s playoff resume at shortstop, but given the changes in the playoff format, there is a chance that Correa can get close. Simply getting through the league playoffs can require as many as 15 games. That would be roughly 60 plate appearances by itself. If you go into a World Series that can be anywhere from 20 to 30 additional plate appearances.

So, given the Astros general level of competitiveness and the state of the playoffs, an additional 200 playoff plate appearances in the next seven seasons. Add an additional ten home runs, 30 runs and RBI and suddenly you are talking about the second best playoff shortstop ever.

Does that make him a Hall of Famer? I suppose it depends on what we see in the other categories. Fame is often a fleeting thing and some voters will get swayed by big moments. Correa has already had some of those and could have more as soon as this season. Suffice it to say, there are considerations beyond simple wins and losses at play here. There is an added bonus that comes when a legend begins and ends his career with a team. He will never approach Altuve territory, but he can get pretty close.

Bad Framber returns, Offense again a no-show as Red Sox complete sweep of Astros 6-1

2025-08-03T14:16:33-05:00

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

The offensive misfires continue, with Framber not helping at all.

Framber Valdez (11-4, 2.56 ERA) and the Astros returned for their 3rd game in a 3-game set against Lucas Giolito (7-2, 3.67 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox today at Fenway Park, trying to stave off the first sweep by Boston since 2013. With the offense reeling, an excellent start by Framber would surely help this team get right back on track and salvage a game in the series....right?

First pitch: 10:38AM (CST)

Through the first 3 innings of this rubber match, Lucas Gilito and Framber Valdez pitched as expected. Up until this point, Gio’s statline was: 1 hit, 1 walk, 1K, and 0 runs on 40+ pitches, while Framber responded with: 3 hits, 0 walks, 1K, and 0 runs given up on 43 pitches. The Astros offense yet again looked stuck in the mud, with 4 ground outs and 4 pop/fly outs being all they could muster as a unit. (This following yesterday’s game where they had 14 LOB)

This streak of futility was finally snapped when, in the top of the 4 inning, Carlos Correa hammered a deep fly ball over the left center field wall off of Giolito to make the score 1-0 Astros:

CARLOS CORREA. HOUSTON ASTRO. #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/eqevvczRto
— Houston Astros (@astros) August 3, 2025

This was followed by a Christian Walker pop out and Yainer Diaz groundout(GB-merchant) to end the inning.

*Warning, the text you’re about to read contains graphic depictions of failure and self-implosion, please hide your wives and children, and be mindful that continuing to read on a full stomach might lead to projectile vomiting. You have been warned. *

The Red Sox then responded with some scoring of their own in the bottom of the 4^th, when Framber fell into a sequence of: a Roman Anthony leadoff double, a Romy Gonzalez walk, and a Trevor Story single to score Roman, tying the game 1-1. The damage then continued when Ceddanne Rafaela whacked a single to left field to score Romy and make it 2-1 Sox. Framber unraveled even more when, as Abraham Toro was up to bat, he was called for a balk to score Trevor Story from 3^rd and now make it 3-1 Sox. The Red Sox, who have already done waaay too much scoring in this paragraph, continued hammering Framber with this sequence: Wild Pitch(advanced Rafaela to 3^rd), Toro single, Wilyer Abreu successful sac-bunt attempt (that Framber can’t field!) allowing Wilyer to reach 1^st and scoring Rafaela to make it 4-1, Wild Pitch(again!) and finally a Connor Wong sac-fly to right field to make it 5-1 Sox and only 1 out in the inning.. oh right, I didn’t mention that, until Wong, Framber had NO ONE out in that entire biography I just wrote. The Sox then scored one more time on a Rob Refsnyder ground out to Christian Walker at 1^st to make it 6-1 Red Sox before Alex Bregman lined out to right field to end the inning. After one of the grossest innings ever experienced by mankind, the Astros offense returned to the field to start the 5^th inning.

And what a response! The Astros returned the favor with a mighty… thud. Trammell popped out, Dubon struck out, and newcomer Ramon Urias flew out to center field to go down in 1-2-3 order to end the top of the 5^th. Gross...again.

Framber then returned to the mound to start the bottom of the 5^th now responsible for: 7 hits, 6 runs(4ER), and an ERA increasing from 2.56 to 2.78. Mercifully though, he managed a quick 5^th via an Anthony ground out and 2K’s by Romy and Story.

The top of the 6^th went about the same as the previous, with Altuve providing a single while Pena, Sanchez, and Correa could only add more contact outs via a couple of grounders and a flyout.

Framber then hits Rafaela with a pitch to start to bottom of the 6^th, but nothing else significant happened as Toro grounded into a force out of Rafaela, Toro was then picked off while tying to steal 2^nd, and Wilyer Abreu grounded out.

Another quick inning by the Astros to start the 7^th (their 3^rd in a row), as Walker, Diaz, and Trammell all ground out to go down in order...again.

Framber’s horrific outing is then over, as Kaleb Ort relieves him to start the bottom of the 7^th. (This completed Framber’s worst outing since giving up 4 runs on July 5^th against the Dodgers, and 7 runs against the Cardinals in April.)

After 2 outs, Bregman then draws a walk to bring Roman Anthony to the plate. Ort then proceeds to K up Anthony to end the inning. To the 8^th the offense goes.

And for the 4^th straight inning, the Astros do nothing of note, with a couple of contact outs by Dubon and Urias and a strikeout by Pena. It was another quick one for Giolito, who went 8 strong today with only the 1 homerun given up to Correa in the 4^th, 3 hits total, 1 walk, and 4 K’s, and lowering his ERA from 3.67 to 3.57.

Nick Hernandez then has a quick inning of his own after he replaces Ort for the bottom of the 8^th, only allowing 1 Rafaela single and a few contact outs by Gonzalez, Story, and Toro to end the inning. With one final chance to…”make a comeback” against the Sox and salvage a game in a dismal series, Altuve, Hummel, and Correa all went down in order to end the game 6-1 and complete the 3 game road sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox, the first of its kind since 2013.

This series loss marks the 3^rd lost by the Stros’ since the All-Star break, making them 2-3 since July 18^th’s series start against the Mariners. They are also 2-8 in their last 10 games, and now risk lowering their division lead against the M’s to only 2.5 games after today. (With the Rangers not that far behind at 4.0 games with a chance at 3.5 if they beat Seattle today)

After a 19-7 record in June, the Astros have nosedived to a 12-13 mark in July and now 0-3 in August, making them 12-16 as a whole and objectively playing like the worst version of themselves at the worst possible time. Framber Valdez melting down and having arguably his worst game of the season, only helped to exacerbate what was already a dire situation, with this team desperately trying to find help from anyone while waiting for a lot of help off of IL.

The offense has been a major source of their struggles for the entirety of the season, with the team scoring less than 3 runs in at least 39 games, and them having a putrid 20-39 record when scoring 3 runs or less on the season. (according to statmuse.com)

The Astros offense will try to right the ship tomorrow night against a now red-hot Miami Marlins team who are winners of their last 4 in a row, including spanking the pinstripes off of an also tail spinning New York Yankees team. (Yes, even at our worst, I have time to dunk on the Yankees.)

Jason Alexander (1-1, 7.36 ERA) gets the start tomorrow against Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 6.36 ERA), someone the Astros reportedly checked in on before Thursday’s trade deadline.

BOX SCORE