The Crawfish Boxes

The Sophomore Slump: Position Player Edition

2012-02-13T07:42:57Z

In Baseball the Sophomore Slump is generally referred to as a player’s second season or sophomore effort that fails to live up to the performance displayed by the said player during their rookie season. Since the Astros fielded a total of 20 different rookies at some point last season and thus have several potential candidates who could experience a sophomore slump I decided to take a closer look at how a player’s rookie season and sophomore season compares to each other. In this article we will look solely at position player’s offensive production, and I plan on hopefully getting something similar for pitchers posted later in the week.

A few details about the sample

I chose to sample rookies who debuted during the time frame of the years 2000-2010, and compare that to their second season in the majors. According to MLB's official rules a player is considered a rookie as long as they do not exceed 130 major league at-bats or accumulate more than 45 days on the active 25-man roster during previous seasons. Because determining the amount of days spent on the active roster was difficult, I chose to determine rookie status based on players who have not previously exceeded 130 at-bats during a season. I also chose to use the season in which the player broke the 130 at-bat plateau as their rookie season and not the season in which they first experienced the majors. As an example Lance Berkman played in 34 games in 1999 and accumulated 106 plate appearances, but did not surpass the 130 at-bat mark until the following season, therefore that season is used as his rookie season for this exercise.

2000-2010 Rookie/Sophomore Season Comparison

There were a total of 607 position player rookies who appeared in the majors from 2000-2010. The chart below lists the accumulated averages of each year’s rookie class’ walk percentage, strikeout percentage, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Stats highlighted in yellow represent which season’s performance (Rookie or Sophomore) was more productive, and stats highlighted in blue represent no change from the first season to the second season. All stats used for this year were gathered from the Fangraphs database.

Click on the above chart to enlarge.

• The overall totals show that the average rookie played in 5.67 more games and had about 31 more plate appearances in their second season. The walk percentage and strikeout percentages for the players sampled only saw marginal changes between the rookie and sophomore seasons. The average batting average decreased 10 points, on-base percentage decreased 7 points, and slugging percentage decreased 15 points during the players second season.

• Out of the 607 rookies sampled 59.64% (362 players) saw a decline in their offensive production during their sophomore season, and 40.36% (245 players) saw an improvement in offensive production during their second season in the majors.

• 8.40% of the players sampled did not play in the majors at all the season after their rookie campaign, and of that group 4.78% have either never played in the majors again, or has not yet made it back to the majors.

The information above shows that from 2000-2010 the average player had about a 60% chance of seeing a decline in his offensive production during his second season. The year-to-year totals varied each season with the high being 72% of players sampled declining in the year 2004, and only 45% declining in the year 2003. One interesting thing to note is that even though the players walk rates improved in their second season, albeit only slightly, their overall on-base percentage still decreased. This is probably due to the fact that a players batting average on balls in play decreased from .303 during the players rookie season to .292 during the players second season.

2011 Houston Astros Rookies

Now that that’s out of the way, the Astros have 5 position players (Jose Altuve, Brian Bogusevic, Carlos Corporan, J.D. Martinez, and Jimmy Paredes) that could potentially enter their second season in the majors this year depending on whether or not they make the team out of spring training. Out of the five, Brian Bogusevic, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Altuve figure to be good candidates to make the opening day roster. Jimmy Paredes looks to be competing for the third base job with Chris Johnson, and dare I say Brett Wallace. Carlos Corporan doesn’t appear to have a shot at breaking camp with the club.

I’m not going to waste a lot of time on Carlos Corporan here, so we will move on to the remaining four. Most projections for the 2012 season show to have J.D. Martinez and Jose Altuve improving upon their rookie seasons while Brian Bogusevic and Jimmy Paredes are both projected to decline offensively, although Bogusevic’s projected decline is not as drastic as Paredes’ is.

Even though his walk rate decreased and his strikeout rate increased last season compared to his minor league totals, Martinez did not flash the warning signs of a player destined to regress a la Chris Johnson. His batting average on balls in play was .325 which is significantly less than what he carried in the minors which is a positive sign and could leave hope that he can avoid the sophomore slump.

Brian Bogusevic could be a surprise candidate to improve upon last season as he seemed to take a big step forward last season. While the warning signs of a sophomore slump are visible with his strikeout rate, walk rate, and BABIP all dipping below his minor league career totals, he has improved each year since switching to a position player in 2008. He is also coming off of a good showing in winter ball which has also gave fans a reason to be cautiously optimistic that he can avoid the slump this season.

Jose Altuve has done nothing but hit at every level he has played at thus far and was able to ride a great season in the minors from high-A ball all the way to the majors this past season. The biggest concern with Altuve’s rookie season was his plate discipline. Out of the 607 rookies sampled over the 10 year period Jose Altuve’s walk rate of 2.10% was tied for the 8th worse walk rate on the list.

Delmon Young: Rookie BB% - 0.80%, Sophomore BB% - 3.80%

Josh Bell: Rookie BB% - 1.20%, Sophomore BB% - 6.20%

Cesar Izturis: Rookie BB% - 1.40%, Sophomore BB% - 3%

Josh Harrison: Rookie BB% - 1.50%, Sophomore BB% - N/A (2011 Season)

Felix Escalona: Rookie BB% - 1.80%, Sophomore BB% - 6.90%

Tony Pena: Rookie BB% - 1.90%, Sophomore BB% - 2.60%

Toby Hall: Rookie BB% - 2%, Sophomore BB% - 4.80%

All of these players improved upon their rookie walk rate; however they were all low enough that there wasn’t really any direction to go but up. Even though each player's walk rates improved the next season, none improved to the point of matching their minor league totals. Therefore it is quite possible that Altuve may have trouble obtaining his average minor league walk rate of 7.56% in 2012.

Jimmy Paredes

Since there has already been a lot of ink spilled over whether or not Jimmy Paredes would be able to match last season’s production, I figured it was appropriate to spend a little more time on him. The general consensus is that the batting average on balls in play that he maintained during the 2011 season was unsustainable and therefore he will experience a decline in his offensive production this upcoming season. With that in mind we will take a look at other players sampled that had a similarly high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and see how that translated into their sophomore season’s performance.

There were a total of 20 other players during the 10 year time frame that had a BABIP higher than .375, which is similar to Paredes’ BABIP of .383 last season. The chart below lists the change between the 20 player’s rookie and sophomore seasons slash lines:

Click on the chart above to enlarge

• For the players that carried a BABIP of .375 or higher the average drop in their slash line from their rookie season to their second season was a 53 point drop in batting average, a 49 point drop in on-base percentage, and a 73 point drop in their slugging percentage.

• Of the 20 players sampled only 2 (Jorge Cantu and David Freese) were able to avoid an offensive decline in their second season.

• The average batting average on balls in play dropped 74 points from one season to the next. The only 2 players that came close to sustaining their BABIP in their sophomore seasons were Shin-Soo Choo and John Rodriguez.

• Only 4 of these players had a higher strikeout percentage than Jimmy Paredes did during their rookie season, and only 2 players had a worse walk percentage.

Concluding Thoughts

Given the fact that so many players have struggled during their second season it’s unlikely that all four of the Astros rookies can escape the sophomore slump this season. There is also the chance that some of these players could become part of the 8% that did not play in the majors in the season directly after their rookie campaign. It’s possible that Chris Johnson realized that his time is running out to prove himself and forces his way onto the roster, Matt Downs has a great showing in spring and allows the Astros to give Altuve more seasoning, and maybe Brett Wallace overwhelms and forces Lee back to left and Martinez to AAA. The more likely scenario though is that Bogey, Martinez, and Altuve will all be trying to avoid the sophomore slump in 2012. Jimmy Paredes...To be continued.

If your interested in looking at the overall rookie and sophomore season stats generated from Fangraphs for this exercise then click the following link. Sophomore Slump Position Players

Astros FanFest Running Diary, Part I

2012-02-13T07:36:10Z

At the opening panel of the Astros’ FanFest on Saturday, I had a pretty jarring realization. New Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow looks almost exactly like ESPN.com and Grantland.com sportswriter Bill Simmons.

Really, it’s uncanny. I couldn’t stop thinking about it as he gave reasoned answers about how Houston is attempting to make itself relevant again. So, I thought I’d steal a page from Simmon’s book and sum up the FanFest event with a running diary. Enjoy…

9:30 a.m. – Because Port Arthur is not Houston, I had to get on the road pretty early. Luckily, the rain that has poured on the area for the past week decided to take a day off. Saturday’s weather was the first time I’ve worn sunglasses in a month.

10:45 a.m. – First time I haven’t had to pay for parking at Minute Maid Park. It’s a nice feeling.

10:48 a.m. – It’s cold both inside and outside MMP on this day. And guess who didn’t bring a jacket? The lesson, as always, is I’m an idiot.

10:50 a.m. – I get inside with my freshly minted press credentials for just that day and meet the other writers who are covering the event. The Astros, through social media director Alyson Footer, invited a number of bloggers and writers to attend in an official capacity with an opportunity to interview Brad Mills, Bud Norris and J.D. Martinez. Which is why I spent my Saturday in Houston hanging out with a big chunk of the Houston Astros blogosphere.

11:00 a.m. – I get to hear the tail end of a season ticket holder panel with Luhnow, Mills, new Astros CEO George Postolos and the voice of the Astros, Milo Hamilton. Two different workers tried to kick me out, but my credentials protected me. Huzzah!

11:07 a.m. – If it involves history and the Astros, I’m sold, which is why the new team memorabilia museum displays in Union Station. There were two displays, including jerseys from a bunch of players throughout history. I’ll get to the player jerseys in a minute (and possibly have thoughts on who they left off), but the coolest thing in either display? Two seats from the ‘Dome painted with the distance a Jimmy Wynn and Doug Rader home run traveled.

Okay, so here’s a list of the players with jerseys in the display: Bob Watson, Billy Hatcher, Bob Aspromonte, Phil Garner, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Ken Caminiti, Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Shane Reynolds, Art Howe, Jim DeShaies, Billy Doran, Daryl Kile, Randy Johnson, Billy Wagner, Glenn Davis, Cesar Cedeno, J.R. Richard, Jose Altuve, Larry Dierker, Lance Berkman, Brad Ausmus, Billy Spiers, Jose Cruz, Doug Drabek, Mike Hampton, Jimmy Wynn, Mike Scott, Nolan Ryan, Joe Niekro, Steve Finley, Dave Smith, Terry Puhl and Enos Cabell.

That’s a TON of players and I was only surprised by a couple. Pleasant surprise? Billy Spiers. My favorite under-the-radar Astro from those late-90’s teams. Played everywhere and was a huge glue guy for those teams. Regular surprise? Billy Hatcher. Huh? I mean, he played more games for Houston than any other team in his career. I guess that home run in Game 6 trumped Jeff Kent’s homer in 2004.

11:15 a.m. – The fun begins with the first panel of the day. Postolos went into a detailed accounting of his background. Some tidbits: He started out in ticket sales for an unnamed team in San Antonio….He consulted with new owner Jim Crane on five different teams they looked at buying. … He helped put together the TV agreement that joined together the Rockets and Astros broadcast rights. Kinda cool that he has been team president/CEO for both teams now. …

11:25 a.m. – Postolos says the team looked at its food policy and started to allow people to bring in a sealed water bottle and a sandwich in a sandwich bag because it was more family-friendly. He blamed it on the contract with the concessions provider and said the team amended the contract this winter to make this happen.

11:27 a.m. – Another priority, but less family friendly? Five dollar beer at every concession stand. Because the team is going to lose 100 games again, and fans may need alcohol to get through this season. Postolos didn’t say that last part, but I’m pretty sure he was thinking it…

11:30 a.m. – Postolos said that even though the name change was a bit of a media exaggeration from an off-the-cuff remark from Jim Crane, but that they did look into it. Less than 5 percent of fans wanted to change the name in the end, according to Postolos. Sounds about right.

11:31 a.m. – He then introduces Jeff Luhnow, who is a very engaging interview. He quickly won over the room.

11:32 a.m. – Luhnow: "I’m sure last year’s team struggled would have made anyone pull their hair out, especially our manager." He then looked over at Mills, who is both very bald and sitting right next to him. Bazinga!

11:34 a.m. – Luhnow also doesn’t think Houston has fair-weather fans. That’s a nice sentiment.

11:37 a.m. – One of the biggest things Luhnow emphasized was effort. Said fans don’t want to come watch a team with players who give less than 100 percent effort. Uh-oh, Carlos.

11:38 a.m. – Luhnow just said they’ll have a "zero tolerance policy" on lack of effort. Double uh-oh, Carlos…

11:39 a.m. – The most exciting thing about dealing with young players? That one or two will break out, it’s just finding which ones will do that. Who’s betting on Altuve and J.D. Martinez??

11:40 a.m. – Luhnow throws it to Mills at this point, who promptly comes back at Luhnow by calling him the GQ GM. Zing!

11:41 a.m. – Not a lot here we didn’t already know from Mills. He likes young players, excited for competition in spring training, etc. All the things you’d expect him to say in front of his boss.

11:43 a.m. – We throw it to Q&A. Some good stuff here at first, including a question on winning in the minor leagues and one on spending in the new CBA. Upshot? Luhnow acknowledged the debate between winning and developing players, but thinks you can do both. Also said that Houston should be able to spend more money than anyone else in the draft this year.

Oh, It’s time for another Simmons trope…the split column! Wait for Part II, coming either later today or tomorrow…

Super Sunday Links 12 Feb 2012

2012-02-12T11:00:13Z

While CRPerry13 was educating us on slugging I was putting together these links for a delightful Sunday afternoon.

The Offbeat

Astros exec asking $3.2M in Bunker Hill Village | Ultimate Memorial
Tal's home is up for sale.

Rangers Mistakenly Attempt To Woo Roy Oswalt By Touting Dallas' Gay Nightlife Scene | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Astro fans will appreciate this.

You May Say I'm A Dreamer: Houston Astros | January
By Garrett Wilson

Ultimate Astros " Hoffman: One Astro’s short but stellar career
By Ken Hoffman

The Platoon Advantage: 2012 Topps: My Last Year of Collecting
By Cee Angi

The Non-Astros

Money and wins
By Dave Studeman

2012 Sabermetric Teams: The Market for Saber Players | FanGraphs Baseball
By Bradley Woodrum

The State of Sabermetrics in the College Game | FanGraphs Baseball
By Eno Sarris

What Is Sabermetrics? And Which Teams Use It? | FanGraphs Baseball
By Bradley Woodrum

How Much Risk Is Worth Additional Upside? | FanGraphs Baseball
By Dave Cameron

Draft and Astro links after the jump...

The Astros

Astros spring roster " Tag's Lines
The entire Spring Training roster.

What the Heck, Bobby?: An Interview with 2B John Hinson
I am required to do this: BOOOO Clemson! Great interview though.

An A-list lineup of past Astros stars turn out to honor a true original. " Alyson's Footnotes
Dennis Liborio retirement party.

The Worst Team Ever Projected? - Baseball Nation
By Jeff Sullivan

The Draft

High School Draftees and Elite Seasons | FanGraphs Baseball
By Jim Breen

2012 Baseball Draft: College Prospects 1-5 - Minor League Ball
These 5 could all go in the top 10 picks and 4 of the 5 have a shot at being #1 overall.

How Are You Preparing For The Baseball Season?

2012-02-10T14:00:18Z

Next month my things to do list include:

Sleep
Plant the seeds of baseball obsession in my daughter
Prepare for my trip to Kissimmee, Florida.
Beat Mass Effect 3

Baseball season tends to get a bit chaotic for me. I watch 150+ games via MLB.TV and try to get to Atlanta for a live game or two when the Astros are in town. I tend to schedule stuff around my baseball obsession, especially day games, so typically my nights are shot and the grass will grow a little bit longer than I'd like. That doesn't mean I don't attend family functions or even go out anymore, it just means all my friends have gotten married and typically decline any sort of male interaction.

I consider myself lucky that I found one who has supported my baseball obsession and put up with my gaming addiction (see: Mass Effect 3). She also doesn't boss me around or guilty me into staying put at the house. Which really isn't a bad thing considering she's the one that wanted to get the pool table, but I digress.

I live on the East Coast which means a majority of the games I watch typically start at 8:05PM EST and end some where around 11:00 PM EST. If the game goes into extra's or I have game recap duties that night I'm pushing midnight before I get to bed. With a 6 AM wake up call in my future, doing that four nights a week tends to wear on me. Sure I could catch up on the weekends but my toddler typically has other ideas.

But it's all good, because we make sacrifices for the things we love.

Speaking of my daughter I found this wonderful game on the internet. She turns three next month and is starting to pick up more and more things. Meaning it's the time in every kids life when their parents begin to push their own obsessions on them. I'd like to think I'm better than this, but I'm not.

My final "to do" in preparing for the season is making a trip down to Florida to see the Astros play. Due to the schedule we'll actually be in Kissimmee for one game, but we picked a weekend in which they'd be playing no more than two hours away from the ball park. I'm excited as it would be the first time I've ever gone to Spring Training. If anyone has any suggested dinning venues and/or regular tips I'd love to hear them.

What are some of the things you're doing to prepare for the season? For college students are you trying to get ahead of your school work? Are you trying to build up some good rapport with your significant other so that you can stay up way past your bed time? Are you trying to get more rest like me? Or going to Spring Training?

Or am I flying solo on this one.

The Astros According To PECOTA (Part 1)

2012-02-09T18:38:14Z

Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus released the first 2012 iteration of their annual stat projection system, PECOTA. Please note that this is a projection system, not a prediction system. It's a fine line and sometimes BP writers get huffy when PECOTA is incorrectly labeled.

As the release of the inaugural PECOTAs are always, for me, a momentous occasion on par with Christmas, Halloween, Guy Fawkes Day, and International Talk Like A Pirate Day, I gleefully neglected work and family to fire up Microsoft Excel to wade through the prognostications.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with PECOTA, it's a baseball stat projection system named after Bill Pecota, as average a player as there ever was. The projections are based on quantum mechanics, chaos theory, and super string theory, where the end result is a collection of stats that represents the weighted average of the different calculation iterations.

For the type of people who fight Saber Boy for a living, what this means is that the projections represent the most likely performance of a player. I'm done trying to explain it. If you want to know more, Google is available.

Anyway, I dove into the Astros' PECOTA projections, starting with the hitters, and my comments are below.

NOTE: The article image has nothing to do with the Astros or with this article. I just thought it looked funny.

PECOTA lists Carlos Lee at 200 pounds. I've heard of people being in the best shape of their life at Spring Training, but dang. If PECOTA is right, Carlos Lee now only weighs 30 pounds more than Jose Altuve and makes Chris Snyder look like Goliath at 220 lbs. Maybe all of the misplaced mockery from the Astros.com message boards finally got to him? Carlos, man, it's time to pick up the hamburgers again or we'll have to change your nickname to El Caballito.
Chris Johnson is projected for 54 plate appearances. We spent last week discussing if Johnson is primed for a breakout and should get the majority of the starts at third base. If PECOTA is correct, then Johnson is headed back to AAA. I'm going against PECOTA on this one. CJ will get at least 55 plate appearances.
Catchers are only projected for 307 plate appearances. This projection implies that the Astros will be playing catcher-less for about half of the season. While of dubious legality, this is certainly a strategy that has never been tried before, and it should be interesting to see if the ploy is successful. Perhaps the Astros will play Downs and Paredes at third simultaneously in lieu of a catcher, in order to negate infield defensive problems.

Did you know: Jason Bourgeois and Humberto Quintero are only two inches taller than Jose Altuve? I didn't.

PECOTA seems to think that Carlos Lee really, truly, has improved his defensive skillset. They project +8 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) for him at first base, and only -2 FRAA in Left Field. This is so much better than his career averages that it's astounding that even a computer can project this without nervousness. Perhaps the 100-pound weight loss has something to do with this.

Most likely to have a Break Out Season: 1) Jimmy Paredes; 2) Brett Wallace; 3) J.D. Martinez; 4) Jordan Schafer; 5) Marwin Gonzalez

Most likely to beat their PECOTA projections: 1) J.D. Martinez; 2) Fernando Martinez; 3) Jed Lowrie; 4) Jason Bourgeois

Most likely to underperform their projections: 1) Humberto Quintero; 2) Marwin Gonzalez; 3) Jimmy Paredes; 4) Brian Bogusevic

Only Lee, Bourgeois, Martinez, and Altuve are projected to have an above-average batting average. And Lee takes the crown with a disappointing .275.

Average team OBP = .309. Yuck

Average team SLG% = .382. Double Yuck

Altuve will lead the team in triples with 4.

Top Base Stealers: Altuve (29); Paredes (28); Bourgeois (26); Schafer (24)

For those of us who have been debating if Springer would sniff the majors in 2012: PECOTA has the answer, and it's, "NO."

Only Carlos Lee, J.D. Martinez, and Jed Lowrie will hit more than 10 Home Runs. I'm not a gambling person, but I'd take the "over".

PECOTA also includes a fun section of player comparisons. Based on the player's projections, the algorithm looked at players who have had similar seasons in the past and lists the top three "comps". Below are some fun comps from the 2012 projections.

Brett Wallace's top comp is Justin Morneau
Fernando Martinez' top comps are Nick Markakis, Dwight Evans, and Dominic Brown. I hope PECOTA is right.
Jimmy Paredes' top comps include Ryne Sandberg and Dave Roberts
Jose Altuve's top comps include Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar. We shall see.
J.D. Martinez' top comps include Gary Matthews, Sr. and Adam Lind
Matt Downs top comps are Kelly Johnson, Ryne Sandberg, and Brandon Phillips. Somebody please remind me why this guy isn't getting regular playing time?

If anybody would care to dispute these projections, post it in the comments and at the end of the year we will see who is smarter -- Man or Machine. Or sophisticated baseball algorithm. Whatever.

TCB Fantasy Baseball Almost Open For Business

2012-02-09T03:52:24Z

Several weeks ago, I approached David and Tim about managing Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball Leagues for the readers of The Crawfish Boxes. I say approached only in the metaphorical sense, as the conversation was facilitated by the wondrous technology of electronic mail, but the end result was the same. I was aware that TCB had operated fantasy baseball leagues in the past, and thought to myself, "I just gotta get in on that."

So after I dutifully volunteered, they gave me the go-ahead.

So imagine how smug I felt upon logging into the virtual writers desk provided by SB Nation and saw at the top that there was an ongoing campaign between Yahoo and SB Nation to initiate just such Fantasy Leagues! Clicking the "Edit" button, I was greeted with the following:

---------THIS IS THE POST SCRIPT----------

Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball supports SBNation for its commitment to furthering America’s hardball obsession. As the #1 Fantasy Baseball game, players can count on Yahoo! to provide all the research, stats, live scoring, video highlights, and mobile apps to make this season the best yet. Game opens 2/9/12 – Sign up!!!

Because I'm contrarian, I decided to not make the blurb a post script, but rather an integral part of my unnecessarily long lead-in to this post.

Cutting to the chase, we would like to invite you join the TCB Fantasy Baseball League when it opens.

I will follow up with more information once the league is set up.

Ed. note: Now for the nitty gritty of this post. The gist is, we like Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. I use it almost exclusively and recommend it to any of you trying to start a new league, for a lot of the reasons listed below.

Yahoo! Sports is the leading fantasy provider and home to the #1 Fantasy Baseball game available – all for free! It brings fans closer to the game and players they love with free live scoring, mock drafts, mobile apps, over 80 scoring categories, live and offline draft apps, and tools to manage your keeper league.

Yahoo! Sports now offers the fantasy fanatic an even more competitive way to play, Pro Leagues are here! Join a Pro League for $20 or $100 and compete to win cash prizes. For those who dare to put some skin in the game.

Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball '12 is easy and fun to play for the rookie or veteran fantasy user.

Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball provides fans with top-notch information, resources, and expert advice.

Yahoo! Sports provides pre-draft advice clips to help you draft the best team possible. Fantasy advice is also available throughout the season with bi-weekly video clips and weekly radio coverage on the Fantasy Freaks (every Friday 8pm-10pm ET).

Fantasy baseball is the original social network, it is the way friends stayed connected over America’s pastime no matter where they were, Yahoo! Sports continues the tradition by letting fans talk smack talk, check'in, and chat on newly launched message boards.

Game opens 2/7/12 – get ready to play ball!

Astros Spring Training Story Lines

2012-02-08T14:00:15Z

It appears that several members of my twitter feed feel that with the Super Bowl now over baseball season has begun. The NBA, NHL and March Madness might have something to say about that, but I'll play along.

While baseball still does have two months until it engulfs our lives, pitchers and catchers report in less than two weeks and a week or so after that Florida and Arizona will again be filled with the crack of the bat and the whizzing of fastballs. With that in mind here are the Astros Spring Training story lines to keep an eye on during the month designated March Madness.

Who Wins the Third Base Job

It seems that the battle is between Jimmy Paredes and Chris Johnson despite my best efforts to get Matt Downs thrown in the conversation. Paredes has the defensive upside while Johnson has the power upside and Downs apparently has the pine upside.

Clack has already discussed in-depth Johnson's upside and ability to bounce back from his sophomore slump. I'll add that when Johnson went down to AAA last year he posted a BB% of 10.6 which is encouraging. With a .383 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) Paredes has got some serious regression coming his way. Whats interesting about his case is that he also struck out at a 26.3% of the time which is high, even for someone like Johnson. Paredes strikeout number had never been above 20% in the minors until the 2011 season (20.7% at AA).

Paredes strikeout rate could be a case of being rushed to the majors; spending more time in the minors could help his development. Let's also not forget that he only recently started playing third base on a full-time basis and still needs some work at the hot corner. In the minors he's played 112 games at third base and 197 at second base.

In limited playing time the pine rider posted a .276/.347/.518 line accompanied by a .315 BABIP. At the third base position that's an above average offensive player. Defensively he's closer to Johnson than he is to Paredes. Thing is Downs has been shifted around quite a bit in the infield as well and has even found a little time in the outfield, so given some solid time at one position we could see some improvements. Downs is probably better suited for second base but you can't ignore that offensive production at the third base position, even if it regresses a bit this season.

Who Fills Out The Rotation

The only sure things in the rotation are that Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and Bud Norris have one of the first three spots, the other two are up for grabs. For sanity sake I'm going to avoid naming all ten pitchers vying for the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation. The two pitchers I'd peg in the lead right now are Livan Hernandez and J.A. Happ simply because of age and experience. Happ has nothing left to prove in AAA and this season may be make or break for him, especially considering he's making $2.35 Million.

Hernandez is...well Hernandez. He's going to go out there and provide close to 30 starts a season, last year he had 29 but that was the first time since 1997 that he didn't manage to reach 30 starts. His career 5.56 strikeouts per nine (K/9) and 3.03 walks per nine (BB/9) leave something to be desired, but he's proven to be durable and reliable for a back end of the rotation starter.

Potential starters that could make the bullpen are Zach Duke, Xavier Cedeno, Lucas Harrell, Henry Sosa and Aneury Rodriguez. Then there are the young guys who if they don't make the rotation out of Spring Training will most likely be a part of the rotation of the future: Jordan Lyles, Kyle Weiland and Paul Clemens.

Hmm...well I guess I did name all nine pitchers.

The Trifecta That is First Base, Left Field and Right Field

It's been speculated that Carlos Lee's position could be at either first base or in left field. However, If you've read the most recent article at Astros.com you'll notice a tid bit in there that makes it pretty clear where Lee will be playing.

About the only positions not up for grabs are first base, where Carlos Lee returns in the sixth and final year of his contract

That almost certainly sounds like Brett Wallace will be Oklahoma's starting first basemen this season. But that's not all, there was also some information on J.D. Martinez.

Martinez is all but assured a starting job in the outfield based on his bang-up 2011 debut after being called up from Double-A.

As you'll notice Martinez isn't designated for left field so it's possible that someone like Jack Cust or Fernadno Martinez could grab a spot as the starting left fielder. I certainly think Brian Bogusevic has the upper hand in right field but it's far from a sure thing that he'll be the starter come April. And I don't know how much I buy into Lee for sure being the starting first baseman, but this could be an indication about how the Astros front office feels about Wallace. In any case while the trifecta position battle may not happen, we should at least see some interesting battles for the corner outfield spots..

The Back End of the Bullpen

One of the reason why we won't be discussing the shortstop position much this Spring is because the Astros somehow managed to pry Jed Lowrie from the Red Sox for former Astros closer Mark Melancon. Jeff Luhnow managed to fix one need, but in doing so left a gaping hole in the bullpen -- I'd rather have that hole than one at shortstop. While we could be cringing in May when the Astros reach double digits in blown saves that really wouldn't be all that different from last year.

Among the candidates for the closers role are Juan Abreu, David Carpenter, Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez, the rule 5 selection Rhiner Cruz and yes everyone's favorite Brandon Lyon. According to our own injury expert Subber10, even just pitching for the Astros may be a feat on its own for Lyon. Abreu and Cruz have the stuff but lack control; Carpenter has the fastball but not much else; Lopez is coming off injury and is probably better suited in the setup role anyways; and Rodriguez has a deep repertoire but is very hittable. With so few innings to evaluate relievers in Spring Training don't be surprised if the bullpen battle carries over into the season.

If you want a more in depth look at closer candidates I'd suggest reading conrestro's article from December.

Avoiding Injuries

There's nothing like a Spring Training injury to crush the hopes of fans. Last year for the Astros it was Jason Castro and Clint Barmes. Instead of waiting for Spring Training this year Castro decided to get the injury out of the way during the offseason. Recent reports indicate he'll be ready for Opening Day but Lance Berkman said the same thing a few seasons ago he didn't show until May.

It's not so much that Astro fans thought the Astros would of been competitive last year, but instead of seeing what Castro could do we saw what J.R. Towles couldn't do. This lead to a revolving door at the catching position before finally seeing Carlos Corporan and Humberto Quintero settle in with a majority of the playing time. Q provides some entertaining defense especially when he pulls off plays like this, but that's about the only positive thing you can say about that tandem. The same thing happened at the shortstop position where we got to see almost a full month of Angel Sanchez.

Injuries are probably going to play a part in how some of these position battles play out, but the hope is managing to avoid anything serious. I'm putting in the paperwork for a restraining order against Will Carroll.

Who Wins the Second Base Job

These next two positions will probably be on the lighter side of competition. The heir apparent at second base appears to be Jose Altuve but again I wouldn't count out Matt Downs. Altuve certainly held his own both offensively and defensively last season, but there's a concerning trend in regards to his walk rate. He started 2011 in A+ at Lancaster and posted an 8% walk rate. In Corpus Christi at AA he posted a 4.6% walk rate. At the Major league level he posted a 2.1% walk rate, which isn't going to cut it. His BABIP doesn't give much hope as he posted a .309 to go along with a .276/.297/.357 line. Like Paredes spending some more time in the minors wouldn't be a bad thing; banking on him fixing his walk issues at the Major League level could be.

Who Starts in Center Field

I'm calling this the dark horse position battle, because it has the potential to be very interesting. I think you have to pencil in Jordan Schafer in center field simple because of his potential that no other current outfielder seems to have. However, with the recent peanut butter cup incident the Astros should be keeping the eraser close. Jason Bourgeois would be adequate there and does provide speed, but not the on base skills for the top of the lineup. Recently signed Justin Ruggiano could be an option as he's proven to be sound defensively and could pull a Bogusevic this year. Maybe there's someone else the Astros are willing to try like a Bogusevic or Travis Buck.

It will certainly be interesting to see who ends up there and we might even be able to gauge how far the Astros are willing to go in trying something creative.

Will There be a Change in Brad Mills Philosophy

This won't be an easy one to determine from Spring Training as players are in and out of games before you've grabbed your first hot dog. It's not secret that some fans have been upset with Mills' use of some players (see: Brett Wallace, Brian Bogusevic, Jason Michaels, Angel Sanchez, Matt Downs). Yes fans do typically have something to gripe about, especially when a team is bad, but I don't think it's all necessarily unwarranted.

From Wallace and Bogusevic sitting against lefties to Sanchez getting more plate appearances than Downs, not finding out what a young player can do in a lost season doesn't help with the rebuilding process. As fans with an objective view that drives us nuts and doesn't help us feel hope for the rebuilding process. I'm not ready to give up on Mills especially with a new regime and more statistical resources at his disposal. Mills has the potential to grow as a manager and I'd like to see some of that growth occurring in Spring Training.

Who Takes a Step Forward and Who Takes a Step Backward

This is going to be a recurring theme in both the Major Leagues and Minor Leagues this season, but there are some players who will need to take a step forward in Spring Training. Wallace is probably the first name that jumps to mind. He struggled last year and signs aren't particularly good for his future, but this could be a big Spring Training for him.

Will Jose Altuve and Jimmy Paredes confirm that their call-ups last season were warranted? Can Schafer put all his off the field issues behind him and get some stability in his on field numbers? Can Lowrie be the shortstop that makes Luhnow look like a genuis? There are several surprises both good and bad awaiting us in Spring Training.

It's good to have baseball back.

There Is No Way George Springer Breaks Camp With The Astros

2012-02-07T12:00:51Z

We have an early winner for the most obvious headline of 2012, right? After seeing that the Astros invited a unique mix of prospects to spring training on Monday, my thoughts turned to how likely it was that George Springer broke camp with Houston as a starting outfielder.

It was crazy. It was silly. It was ill-advised, but it was what popped into my head all the same. I decided to go home and trot out Baseball Reference to see how many games certain Astro first-round picks had in the minors before reaching the majors. I thought I remembered Craig Biggio getting up to the majors quickly, and Lance Berkman did too, but I wasn't sure how quick.

Turns out both had over 100 games, with Berkman topping 200 minor league games before making his MLB debut. Springer has 8 career games.

That alone is the biggest reason why he won't break camp with the team.

What surprised me is I did find some precedent for a first-round pick not playing very much in the minors. It just so happened to be one of the Astros two former No. 1 overall picks. Floyd Bannister, who was selected out of Arizona State, only needed 7 games in the minors after he was drafted in 1976 before breaking camp with the big league club in 1977.

Bannister went on to post a sub-4.00 ERA and win 16 games in a season, but he did not do either with the Astros. Oh, and he is not a position player. Both of those things bode poorly for Springer.

So, if we're just talking about position players, is there any precedent with other teams? Not really. Mark Teixeira was a pretty sure-fire prospect back in the day, but he spent 86 games in the minors the year after being drafted.

Rickie Weeks actually debuted in the majors the same year he was drafted in 2003, but only spent 7 games in the majors in September and was in the minors for the entire next season. Troy Tulwotzki spent 122 games in the minors before making his debut. Buster Posey spent 125 games in the minors.

Ryan Zimmerman is the closest we came, but even he spent 67 games in the minors the same year he was drafted No. 4 overall and spent 20 games in the majors that same September. He opened the next season as the starting third baseman, but he's got 59 more minor league games than Springer...

Gordon Beckham is another very close test case for Springer, since he signed late, spent 14 games in 2008 in the minors and played 45 more in 2009 before making his MLB debut.

If the Astros followed that timeline, that'd put them calling up mid-May to the big leagues, which could, I guess, be feasible (but not really).

Oh, and don't forget about poster child for this Pete Incaviglia. The college slugger who single-handedly made baseball outlaw draft pick trades never spent a day in the minors, moving straight to the major leagues. Unfortunately, he didn't exactly develop into a future star.

So, does the Astros invitation to Springer mean anything? No, it just gave me an excuse to dig through Baseball Reference for a couple hours. Winning!