The Crawfish Boxes

I'll start off with a link from last Monday, but I think it bears mentioning first. Rob Neyer was able to corner Michael Lewis and ask him about the re-incarnation of the Moneyball movie. And, well,click the link to get the news on who may end up playing Paul DePodesta. In my opinion, it's a Super Bad choice! Or maybe not. Who knows. Although, like Neyer points out- Podesta played football and baseball at Harvard and Hill...didn't.

Another story from earlier in the week that we at TCB have sorta skipped over because it doesn't really concern the Astros, is Nomar Garciaparra signing a one day contract with the Boston Red Sox and then retiring. Now it's not like Noma hhhh is the only guy to have ever done this. There are a number of athletes that have done this. I'm not in a position to judge these people who do this, not by a long shot. Their achievements speak for themselves, and if they choose to do something like this- more power to them.

At the same time though, doesn't it cheapen the career paths of the Bagwells, the Biggios, the Gwynns, the Ripkens? All these players played on one team throughout their illustrious careers, because at least in part, that's probably how they wanted to be remembered. Nomar Garciaparra had many great seasons in Boston, but the fact remains that he played on three teams after he left Fenway. Everybody wants to go home again, but this re-writing of history doesn't jive with me all that well.

What nobody appears to be mentioning during this love fest renewed, is that Nomar wanted out of Boston back in 2004:

In short: Garciaparra didn’t want to be in Boston anymore, didn’t want to deal with the current ownership/management group that’s still in place now and didn’t want to endure the pressure of being a Red Sox player in a baseball-crazed city. He had to be dealt away from Fenway, and Sox GM Theo Epstein didn’t waste much time pulling the trigger.

Maybe Garciaparra felt that there was unfinished business in Boston, and that his retiring as a BoSox could close the final chapter of his career. It appears that like most of us, Nomar views the past with rose colored glasses, making the good times better than they really were and the low times not so bad after all. The human, rather than baseball player side of this is as intriguing as the baseball implications in my opinion.

Hopefully this is something that we as Astros fans will not have to worry about with Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt. As much as we may become frustrated with this team, it would be a shame to see Lance or Roy have to be traded in order to re-stock the farm system. The Red Sox faithful are arguably the most passionate in all of MLB and they take their team a little more seriously than Astros fans do. So it's not as if the Minute Maid Park denizens would be a driving force in pushing the pair out of town. Despite the pressure, or lack of it, for the 2010 season, let's hope that we can put forth a respectable team if for no other reason than to not waste the back end of Berkman and Oswalt's careers.

What a difference a year makes. Last season, Cecil Cooper proclaimed that the Astros were going to win 90 games in 2009. This season it's the Texas Rangers' President Nolan Ryan who is in the prediction making business- throwing down a 92 win gauntlet for his young club to meet. Pitching, hitting and defense are all solid on this team, and free agent additions Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, and Colby Lewis should help bolster a talented bunch coming off an 87 win season.

I know the talent is there, the stats tell me this. I know their farm system is stocked to the gills with an enviable amount of potential stars, the minor league watchers tell me this. Maybe it's their track record of bad luck and bad teams or perhaps my own unfounded opinions, but I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 92 game or lost 92.

Odd things seem to happen to the Rangers franchise- whether it's the drawn out sale of the team, the A-Rod signing gone wrong, the sudden explosion of minor league talent, nothing about this team seems linear. Things are either really, really good (hitting, Josh Hamilton's redemptive 2008, Feliz, Smoak, et al) or really, really bad (their pitching for so many seasons or Tom Hicks' financial decisions). I may be way off base here, but I won't be surprised if they run away with the AL West or end up in last place wondering how it all went wrong.

Here's something that only Farmstros and I would probably care about .

TCB Fantasy League Rules

2010-03-13T20:20:19Z

Here's a rundown on the rules we've set up for the fantasy league. Feel free to chime in on whether you like the rules or not, if you have suggestions on additions or if you just want to be snarky. I'm not picky about comments here.

Player universe: Mixed

Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UTIL, five SP, 2 RP - Made the decision to split up the outfielders to make it a little more realistic. Also should make draft strategy more intriguing.

Position limits: 2 DL players, 2 minor league players, 5 reserves

Waivers: Yes

Daily Roster moves

Scoring system: Head-to-Head, total points scored - This is like how fantasy football head-to-head leagues are scored. Each stat carries a certain number of points and the team with the most points at the end of the week gets a victory. In the case of a tie, the team with the most reserve points gets the W.

Point categories:

Hitters:

Singles - 1

Doubles - 2

Triples - 3

Home runs - 4

Walks (batters) - 1

HBP - 1

Runs - 1

RBIs - 1

Strikeouts -minus-.5

Stolen bases minus caught stealing - 1 (basically, this is successful stolen bases, awarding high percentage base stealers)

Fielding:

Caught stealing by catcher - 2

Double Plays Turned (for infielders only) - 1

Errors - minus-1

Outfield Assist - 2

Pitching:

Walks issued - minus-1

Earned runs - minus-1

Hits allowed - minus-1

HBP - minus-1

Holds - 3

Innings pitched - 3

Strikeouts - .5

Losses - minus-5

Wins - 7

Saves - 7

Playoffs: There are three divisions. All three division winners make the playoffs and there will be three wild card teams. With a 16-team league, that means six teams will make the playoffs. Top two seeded division winners will get byes.

Draft will be held on March 22nd at 7:30 Eastern, 6:30 Central time. It will be 21 rounds, with a 2 minute time limit on picks. If you don't make it in that time, the draft robot will pick the highest rated player on your board. We can adjust this time if you'd like.

Notice there are 23 roster spots and just 21 rounds. You can draft two minor leaguers or add them after the draft. They will not be part of your active roster, but add another layer of intrigue. Does someone draft Jason Heyward or Jason Castro in the middle rounds, stashing him in the minors until he makes his first appearance?

So, what do you think?

As always, if you're looking to set up a league and haven't yet, you can get 50 percent off of CBSSports.com's Commissioner League product. Follow this link to get the discount.

CBSSports.com is an SB Nation partner and paying sponsor of the SB Nation baseball communities.
This post is one of a series of sponsor endorsed posts related to the CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball
Commissioner League.

ST Games No. 10 & 11: Houston Astros split-squad at St. Louis Cardinals/vs. Washington Nationals

2010-03-13T18:00:48Z

Grapefruit League record (though it's essentially meaningless): 3-4

Starters today are: RHP Bud Norris vs. RHP Chris Carpenter and RHP Felipe Paulino vs. RHP Scott Olsen

When I hear about lineups, we'll post them here.

You can listen and watch the Cardinals game here, while listening to the Nationals broadcast on 740 KTRH.

Who starts at 1st base if Berkman misses the start of the season?

2010-03-13T16:32:41Z

More photos » John Froschauer - AP

Chris Shelton hits an RBI single against the Texas Rangers. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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Lance Berkman may not miss opening day, which would mean that this post is pointless. Based on what I can glean, 2 - 5 weeks is an expected recovery time for his arthroscopic surgery. On the conservative side--and that seems like a good approach with your team's best hitter--Berkman could miss the opening series and perhaps even a couple of weeks of the season. And, by the way, Bernardo Fallas has a well done blog piece on Berkman's arthroscopic surgery; as it turns out, Fallas got to know a bit about knee surgeries from his days covering the soccer beat. For those who foresee the worst in Berkman knee surgery, take heart in this passage from Fallas' posting:

A traumatic event certainly could have caused Berkman to have them in the knee.

If this is the case, and given the injury was not serious, a safe bet would be that they are cartilaginous.

Another, decidedly less popular possibility is an arthritic knee, something Berkman has not (I repeat has not) been diagnosed with.

But this article isn't about focusing on Berkman's injury. I want to advocate putting Chris Shelton in the lineup if Berkman is out to begin the season. As noted in some previous posts, Geoff Blum is the most likely replacement for Berkman at first base. But I think Chris Shelton would be a very interesting candidate--even if it's just for a platoon with Blum at first base. I know we can come up with other ideas. The Chronicle's fanblog column suggested putting Lee at first base, so that another outfielder would get at bats. I have always been a fan of trying AAAA players, and I think Shelton is an underappreciated candidate. Since his best (and almost only) position is first base, a Berkman injury may be his only chance.

It's common to think that AAAA players are major league wash outs. But Shelton's major league history isn't all that bad. In 1,044 ML plate appearances, he has a 110 OPS+. And in his Andy Warhol five minutes of fame, when Shelton was being compared to the next Roger Maris, he posted a 131 OPS+ in 431 plate appearances for the 2005 Tigers. Shelton posted a .360 OBP that year, and has a .345 average OBP in the majors. Blum's OBP is...oh, let's not get into that.

Shelton's minor league career average OPS is .880. As far as platoon possibilities go, consider his minor league career OPS versus LHP: 1.015. Last year Shelton's AAA OPS was .891. His OBP was .389 and his SLG was .502. Against LHP last year, his SLG was .611 and his OPS was 1.076. It makes you wonder why Shelton hasn't gotten more chances. And I think the answer is that he is suited for 1st base and DH. But, if the Astros need a first baseman, even for a couple weeks, they have him.

Astros thank their lucky stars: Lance Berkman will begin his 2-4 week rehab today

2010-03-13T15:53:21Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Lance will be doing a lot of this kind of stuff over the next two to four weeks.

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I don't think I've ever in my life woke up and frantically checked Twitter, but I did this morning. I needed to know how Lance Berkman was. Skipping through the mass of emails, etc. on my Blackberry I quickly located the following and shouted with glee:

...David Crumbie removed loose cartiage debris and did NOT see any sign of ligament or meniscus damage. Lance will begin rehab today...

So let's all pause today and thank the god's of baseball/knee-innards for our good fortune. Without the good grace which they have bestowed upon us, we'd be looking at two weeks of Geoff Blum as our starting 1B. In a season which we're hoping that all the cards are dealt favorably to the Astros, that'd be like drawing a seven/two off-suit start.

Ok. I'm getting back to my NY vacation.

Poll: What's your level of confidence in the Astros?

2010-03-13T12:00:21Z

David J. Phillip - ASSOCIATED PRESS

He's got the whole (Astros) world, in his hands...

View full size photo »

As this post goes up, the Astros will have played a week's worth of spring training games. Some guys, like JR Towles, Matt Lindstrom, Jason Castro and Kaz Matsui, have impressed thus far. Others- Michael Bourn, Wandy, Chris Sampson, haven't fared as well in extremely limited action.

That's the thing about the spring: small sample sizes leads to every performance being placed under the microscope. This is just the nature of the beast for writers, bloggers and fans. We would all like to seize on certain topics and occurrences and draw out some sort of long lasting effect from them. Baseball though, does not lend itself to being judged in one at bat increments.

The same can really be said for organizations as a whole. Consider the Astros. Their 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts yielded two players, Tommy Manzella and Bud Norris, who figure to play prominent roles in this year's club. Needless to say that for a team that can't spend like one of the top tier clubs, this sort of production can and often times will lead to lean times on the big league level.

While other clubs have succeeded in planting seeds for the future, the Astros have struggled to replicate the sort of success they achieved from 1997-2005. Did the organization as a whole lose its way and forget how it came to the success it did? I doubt it. Perhaps Drayton McLane became so focused on "being a champion" at the major league level that he forgot the underlying reasons for his team's achievements? Or was his mistake in hiring a GM like Tim Purpura, whom McLane may not have had the confidence in that is necessary for a strong owner-GM relationship?

For whatever the reasons, and despite the fact that McLane is the common denominator, the Astros ship appears to have been righted in recent seasons. Now, I don't want this to necessarily be a post that unduly praises Ed Wade, because in all honesty, I don't know if he is the reason why the organization has been on the upward swing. What I do think is that it is fair to argue that while Wade may not ever turn our heads with an out of this world trade or free agent signing, he is at the very least competent. Now the Astros' goal shouldn't be competency, because that's surely not how the team rose to the heights of professional baseball. For the time being though, competency might be just what this organization needs.

So my poll question for this Saturday, is this: how confident are you in the Astros going forward? I don't just mean the Lance and Roy led guys with the stars on their hats. I mean:

From the major league club to the minor leaguers on the cusp of big league-dom, to the 18 year old in our Dominican Academy. Questions that beg to be asked: Will the 2008 and 2009 draft classes progress as much as we hope? Can the Astros discover this century's Johan Santana, Richard Hidalgo and Carlos Guillen in the Dominican Republic? As for our Astros, did Wade do a good enough job to add talent while simultaneously cutting payroll?
The front office. Drayton will be Drayton, and as long as he's our owner, we know it's less than likely that the Astros will pay over slot for top line draftees, and there will always be the temptation to think in the short term rather than into the future. Does Ed Wade have his ear so that these tendencies of McLane can be mitigated?
Scouting and player development wise: Bobby Heck is certainly a favorite around here, but the criticism is that he has been too conservative in his first two drafts with the Astros. As I alluded to earlier, will those '08 and '09 classes make Heck look like a genius? Further down the development totem pole there are a lot of issues to shore up for the Astros to begin to have a consistent pipeline of youngsters going up to the majors. Do you think the organization will invest sufficiently in those people that we will never see, and whose names we will likely never learn?

So look at this team with as objective an eye as you can and tell us:

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

2010-03-13T04:06:41Z

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

I was mowing my grass today (Spring is coming) when inspiration struck. Since the question is on everyone's mind, I figured I'd put it to music.

Jordan Lyles: A wild thought

2010-03-13T00:00:06Z

Here's a scenario for you--a flight of fancy, if you will: Let's say Jordan Lyles starts at AA and dominates in the first half of the year. Say our worst fears come true and one of Norris/Myers/Paulino is hit with a season-ending injury; we're still in the thick of contention.

We do have Moehler on standby, but with our best starting pitcher prospect dominating at AA, does the organization consider doing something radical and calling Jordan Lyles up, thinking that he may actually perform better than Moehler?

On the one hand, Ed Wade's front office has shown some willingness to call pitchers up directly from AA and throw them into the fire (like Wilton Lopez last year); on the other hand, Jordan Lyles is a very young and very important prospect, and you don't want to risk damaging his confidence by bringing him up before he's ready.

Jordan Lyles started 26 games at Class A Lexington last year, pitching 144 innings. He posted a 3.24 ERA and a 2.42 FIP while striking out 167 batters and walking only 38. He was ranked as our third best prospect by Baseball America in November of last year, and the ninety-first best prospect out of all MLB organizations.

Drafting the Astros Dynasty

2010-03-12T12:00:28Z

*Note: I know you are ready for the Friday Astros Minor Thoughts to return. Hold off for one more week. This story is about the minors and the draft, but it's bigger than the normal Thoughts. So you've got that going for you. Which is nice.

A throwaway comment by Evan the other day gave me a great idea for a story. The Astros glory years were from 1997-2005. That's when they made the playoffs six times in nine years. But, how were those teams built. Everyone harps on how bad the Astros farm system is now, but was it correspondingly good leading up to that dynastic period?

More importantly, how much did a well-perceived system help them win during that time frame? Was it sustained drafting excellence that carried the day, or was it one or two big scores? Obviously, our topics lately have veered into supporting Houston General Manager Ed Wade against all manner of outside opinions. Most observers are skeptical of the strength or effect the past two (pretty strong) drafts will have on the Astros going forward. So, I wanted to both see what caused the Astros success in the late 90's and if the pattern could be duplicated in 2010 and beyond.

In doing my research, I found 54 players who made the major leagues after being drafted by the Astros between 1992 and 2002. I stopped in 2002 because that seemed to be the last season where players would have a realistic chance of impacting the big league club by 2005.

54 players fit this criteria, both playing in the major leagues and being drafted from 1992 to 2002. Of this group, only 35 played even a single game with Houston. Fifteen were traded, including six who never appeared as Astros, including first round picks Ramon Castro and Mark Johnson. Both, incidentally, were traded to Florida.

For all intents and purposes, we can break up this dynasty into two sections. The first is 1997-2000, when the Astros made the playoffs three times in four years. Then, we have the 2001-2005 section, when the Astros won their first-ever playoff series and made the World Series in back-to-back years.

During that first section, six players who went on to play at least 20 games with the Astros made their debut. That number does include Morgan Ensberg, however, who didn't receive significant playing time until 2002. Of those players, Scott Elarton, Wade Miller, Lance Berkman and Julio Lugo made significant impacts. Russ Johnson, Tony McKnight, Keith Ginter, Ramon Castro and John Halama were all traded during this period.

That last sentence is important. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the Houston farm system wasn't always highly rated, but it was productive enough to swing big-time deals. Castro brought back Jay Powell, who was the primary setup man during the 1999 playoff run. Halama was part of the package that picked up Randy Johnson, while McKnight brought in closer Mike Williams, a key member of the bullpen in 2001.

What these years (and the previous drafts) lacked in impact, they made up for in trade value. Oddly enough, though, none of the drafted players the Astros gave up during this period went on to be a star. The closest is probably Ramon Castro, who played in 507 games at catcher. Of course, some of the international signees like Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia brought back more value for Seattle. On the balance, though, the Astros did very well by these trades.

In fact, these trades helped offset the lack of an impact player from the 1992-1995 drafts. The closest thing the Astros got during this time period was Billy Wagner. While Scott Elarton, Chris Holt and Julio Lugo all played big roles in short bursts, they didn't play for long. Elarton was a reliever for two seasons before having a great 2000 campaign. He promptly hurt his arm and was never the same for Houston. Holt was traded to Detroit after two okay seasons in the rotation for the second coming of Brad Ausmus. Lugo was a good player at short, but played on just one playoff team (2001) before being cut.

The real core of the later Astros teams were formed in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 drafts. Those three saw Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Tim Redding, Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge. Those three drafts also produced the aforementioned Mark Johnson, who was integral to the Moises Alou trade, Ginter (traded for Mark Loretta) and John Buck, who was one of the keys to the Carlos Beltran deal in 2004.

Of the Astros who played in over 100 games, only Oswalt, Berkman and Ensberg posted double-digit wins from 2002 through 2005. While Miller's best seasons may have scored highly on the WAR list, they didn't track that particular stat until 2002. Jason Lane also was high on this list, but had pitiful WAR numbers and never really had that one great season. Ensberg, on the other hand, posted more than five wins twice and carried the 2005 team until his hand injury.

There were certainly players drafted in the meantime that contributed. Lane, Chris Burke, Chad Qualls and even a guy like Kirk Saarloos had their roles. What was lacking in their performance was an impact on the Astros playoff chances. It's also clear that the Astros never really set out to build through the draft in this period. They lucked into some late round pitchers like Miller and Oswalt. They also made astute trades to supplement the core of the team built during the late 80's (Biggio. Gonzo, Harnish, Finley, Bagwell). That's how the Astros won in the first section, right down to the Alou, Johnson and Powell trades.

On the other hand, as the calendar flipped to the 21st century, the Astros relied more on homegrown players drafted under Hunsicker. While he did make big acquisitions (Kent, Clemens, Beltran, Pettitte), the real thing that hurt the Astros was the perception that they didn't have enough players to make trades. By going through free agency to sign guys like Kent and Pettitte, the Astros lost valuable draft picks. This led to the idea that the system was crummy and meant that they couldn't make impact trades any more. Look at the guys the Astros traded away again. Where are the serviceable players? Hunsicker did all that with smoke and mirrors.

The other positive thing to take away from this study is that Ed Wade and Bobby Heck could be setting the Astros up for big-time succcess again with this draft. A third straight impact-type draft could set up a situation where the Astros are contenders again and very soon. Like by 2014 soon. That may seem like a long time, because it is. I'd still rather another period of sustained success like we saw back then than what Houston looks like now.

SBNation Previews the Astros

2010-03-11T21:46:02Z

SBNation Previews the Astros

Instead of worrying about Berkman's knee, how about reading what Evan, Stephen and I wrote about the Astros in 2010.

Astros Spring Notebook

2010-03-11T12:00:18Z

More photos » Tom Gannam - AP

The day the legend was born...

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Before we dive into another chock-full spring notebook, let's take a minute to talk about Bud Norris' fastball. We've spent a lot of time analyzing Young Master Norris, including all sorts of facts* and figures about his health and pitching repertoire.

*Norris caught the 'still hasn't landed' homer and used it to strike out 20 Cardinals. In one inning.

One thing that intrigued me about Norris was his fastball. The announcers on Monday were talking it up, how much late life it had. I, naturally, wondered if we could see that with Pitch F/X data.

I didn't want to do a whole writeup on this, because it's kind of a thin topic. Plus, as Harry Pavlidis pointed out in our last breakdown of Matt Lindstrom, basing this data on smaller sample sizes or more granular looks instead of the whole picture can be misleading.

In that spirit, let's look at the overhead view of Norris fastball:

Now to left-handers:

And finally to righties:

We're not dealing with many pitches, but if you look closely at the three pictures, you can tell the fastball is still moving in different directions close to the plate. Taken as a composite, it looks like his average fastball cuts towards the right-hand part of the plate as it gets closer, stopping its trajectory towards the left side. To lefties, there is a pronounces move to the right, with some tailing action just over the plate. To righties, you see the same thing, except the tailing action is less apparent and seems to break away from the hitter.

I had no other point than to see if we could visualize his late movement. After we get some data from his April starts, I'll try and look back at this to see if there is any difference. Onto more news and notes after the jump...

Health concerns: Not only did Alberto Arias strain his trapezius muscle against the Mets on Tuesday, Jason Castro and Yordany Ramirez both caught the flu that has been going around the bullpen guys. Castro was sent home yesterday along with Ramirez.

The moves didn't mess with the catching rotation, as it was Towles time to start anyway. It'll be interesting to see if Castro can go today and keep the 'every three days' thing work. With Ramirez being out, Mills send Cory Sullivan into center field for the first time this spring.

Brandon Lyon is progressing well, having thrown another 30-pitch session with no ill effects. Per Tag's Lines:

"[Lyon] threw outstanding today," Mills said. "He picked it up a notch. It was a very positive day, and he's happy about that, we're happy about that."

He should face live hitters in batting practice some time this weekend. That could mean he appears in a game early next week.

Paulino struggles: It was not a good outing for Felipe Paulino on Wednesday. Scheduled for three innings, Paulino threw 40 pitches in the fourth inning alone, prompting a visit from pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. It seemed like Paulino was struggling with control mostly, throwing 10 straight balls at one point.

At the same time, after walking the bases loaded with two outs, Paulino got a strike out to end the inning. He ended the day by giving up three hits, two runs and two walks with one strikeout. All in all, it's a disappointing first outing in the 'real' spring training games for Paulino.

How long will the Astros give Paulino to prove himself this spring? Will they start lengthening out guys like Fernando Abad and Wesley Wright just in case? Both have looked good in limited action this spring.

Sullivan's shot: As mentioned above, Cory Sullivan got his first start in center field on Wednesday and batted in the leadoff spot for Michael Bourn. Sullivan was 0 for 3 and now sports a .077 batting average through seven spring games.

Now, I'm not about to overreact about his stats yet. Spring stats are meaningless. I guess the positive here is that he had the versatility to play center field in a pinch. Does that, combined with his lefthandedness, give him an edge over Yordany Ramirez and Jason Bourgeois?

I mentioned this in a game thread earlier this week, but does it make sense for the Astros to cut a player who could be a better fit on the team for someone who's handedness gives the manager another option off the bench? Does the strategy aspect give him more weight than true talent would indicate?

Gripping news: Boy, did I like reading this note from Brian McTaggart. Not only does it show the immediate impact that Arnsberg is having on the staff, it also gets into what we saw with Lindstrom on Tuesday.

The 30-year old looked sharp on the mound, with an overpowering fastball and a slider that was fooling people. He looked every bit the late-inning reliever the Astros have coveted. If this is due to a grip change, all the better. The only thing that confused me with this note is about the slider grip helping his fastball command?

When we looked at Lindstrom, it didn't seem like he had too many control issues with his fastball, outside of his movement causing some problems. Can a different grip on one pitch that fits his arm angle better really affect another pitch? Where are our pitching experts?

Pitching still struggling: The Astros pitchers gave up a bunch of runs again on Wednesday. In four losses this spring, Houston has given up 46 runs and 63 hits. The smallest loss was a 4-1 defeat at the hands of the Blue Jays last Monday.

Should we be worried? Not yet. This is the first time through the rotation for many of these players. They're still not throwing a whole repertoire and aren't at full strength yet. Plus, some of the guys getting banged around (Gary Majewski, I'm looking at you) probably won't be around once the season rolls around. So, yes, it's troubling on some level but there's too much spring left to panic.

Did I mention it's been really, really windy in Florida? Of course, that's also like the guys in Major League saying the flyball couldn't be a home run because it was too high. Ahh, misplaced optimism...

Other positional battles: With Brian Moehler ostensibly in the lead for the fifth starter's job, where are we with other spring battles:

Fifth outfielder: Edwin Maysonet - Yes, you read that right. Maysonet gives the Astros a ton of versatility off the bench. Yes, he's right-handed and would have to show he can play in the outfield this spring. However, he can play a good shortstop when needed and has a little pop in his bat. The Astros would have just Blum on the bench as a left-handed bat, which could cause problems. At the same time, having Maysonet on the roster means Keppinger wouldn't have to play short. It's definitely something to watch.

Catcher: J. R. Towles - This has been the best battle so far. Both Towles and Castro are doing enough to win this. If Castro's flu sets him back too much, it could knock him out of the running. Plus, Towles seemed to cool off a little Wednesday, going 0 for 3 for the first time this spring. Still, it's been an encouraging competition.

What's in a (nick)-name? Come up with one for Astros' Mills

2010-03-10T22:35:01Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Look, he's upset. He doesn't like his nickname. Let's give him another.

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In the game thread today, a small discussion was brewing about nicknames and Brad Mills. Apparently, he brought the moniker 'Millsy' with him from Boston. Since this sounds suspiciously like the kind of nicknames Milo gives to every player, let's try to think up something creative.

So far, we have:

General Mills

Millsmeister

Baron von Millstein

The Sarge

Milli Vanilli...scratch that...that one is terrible

Use this thread to come up with more nicknames and we'll put up a poll with all of them during tomorrow's game thread.

From the geeks to the masses

2010-03-10T12:00:27Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Just look at that amazing concentration. Seriously. It's intimidating (something I never thought I'd say about Kaz Matsui).

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Lately, I've had baseball on the brain more so than usual. I always have the Astros on the brain because it's my pseudo-job to do so. The last week or two though, I have been engaging in more meta-conceptions of the game we all know and love. It definitely started with Will Carroll's BPro Unfiltered piece about how to make stats more accessible to the huddled masses. What has solidified my current obsession with thinking about how baseball is digested by us as fans was a conversation I had with my girlfriend's father on last Friday.

Like I did with my own father, I gifted him a copy of Michael Lewis' Moneyball as a gateway drug to my way of thinking about baseball. Prior to me baiting him into the statistical revolution with Moneyball, I believe it's fairly accurate to describe him as a decidedly old school fan of the game. When we spoke on Friday night, it was clear that Moneyball gotten through, but the man still had deserved doubts about cursory knowledge he gleaned through reading half a Michael Lewis' novel.

His doubt centered on Moneyball's meme that a walk is just as good as hit. He agreed in principal, but was fraught by the omission that a walk doesn't allow for a runner already on base to advance more than a single base; so while it is mostly as good as a hit, it is not always. The conversation was reminiscent of my own father disputing sabermetricians' claim that there is a lack of streakiness in baseball.

My dilemma with my girlfriend's father was that in order to begin absolving sabermetrics of the overly-simplified concepts presented in Moneyball, was that I very quickly found myself in the territory of Linear Weights, wOBA, and WPA. These are subjects that I literally spent days digesting for them to ring true to me: How am I supposed to convey all of this information is a casual 5-10 minute conversation and make it seem credible in the least? Moreover, I went into such a tangled web of acronyms to simply explain that considering OBP as the best player evaluator isn't a requirement for sabermetric belief That there is far more nuance in the understanding of offensive metrics and that OBP is just ticket into rabbit hole. Who would want to go down a rabbit hole that crazy (aside from most of us...)?

With my own father, it was streakiness. I started citing Markov-chain based studies that determined there is no meaningful correlation between varying samples of previous at bats and performance in varying samples of future at bats. My dad, a stats-savvy man, rolled his eyes as he relived junior college baseball glory and prognosticated on the truth of a streak. Much like any conversation that arises in regards to clutch, I was essentially left to concede that measuring something like that was difficult-if not impossible-because a hot streak, like clutch, doesn't necessarily have to be a measurable skill to be real to some.

After reading the updates from the Sloan Conference via Twitter this weekend, I was struck by the constant commentary of the need for evangelism of the sabermetric/stat-geek message. My knee-jerk reaction-especially after struggling to explain advanced offensive metrics-was full on concurrence. But after considering the implication for a while, I realize that stats don't need zealous brow-beaters, they need a better message.

My favorite example of how the message of sabermetrics is generally conveied is BPro's authoritative, Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong. If you were weary of stats-laden analysis, but were a passionate baseball fan, wouldn't you turn your nose up at that? Don't get me wrong, I love that book, but that's not a very effective message for the general masses (which it admittedly was not likely intended to be).

Heretofore, this is kind of been a stream-of-consciousness exploration of my feelings about how to make statistics "sexy." There is a method to this madness. The first is that I hope it sparks discussion amongst us, a group of knowledgeable "sabermetricians" without such a flair for some of the implied dogmatism. The second is to put forth my own suggestion of how to best sell stats.

The one suggestion I have is largely based on my own efforts at evangelizing the good book. The thing I have noticed is that no one wants to hear a longwinded description of what a stat is measuring, how it's derived, or what it's correlation coefficient is. So my suggestion is let's stop making it about the stats. Rather, I think we should sell the idea, or the strategic implications of the idea. That's just about the only way I've ever succeeded.

There are so many other approaches we can take to our "truths." Odds, game theory, etc. All of which can be boiled down in general of terms to make sense on a broadcast, in print, or over a few beers at a sports bar. If reading an array of sabermetric writers (and the discussions the occur amongst like minded thinkers) has taught me anything it's that we don't even hold the stats to be the primary goal amongst ourselves-really. We debate their methodology and qualify their intended purpose, but what never debate is that there are pointing us to certain truths. A truth which doesn't need a four or five letter acronym to be sold to the masses. We quibble about methodology and purpose because we can glean for statistics and our own knowledge of the game that each stat is pointing us somewhere. Yet, when we try to present the map we've made of somewhere, we spend more time fussing over the vehicles that take us there, than the destination itself.

That is my suggestion/observation. It is probably not the greatest. I do, however, know that there are sure to be other suggestions, and that I'd like to see what we can come up with.

TCB Fantasy League Update

2010-03-09T23:03:06Z

It's been a few days and we've gotten the TCB Fantasy Baseball League up and running. Here is the list of owners:

1) David Coleman (that's me)

2) Evan Hochschild

3) Stephen Higdon

4) timmy!

5) hayzer13

6) HornsNation

7) BryanTSC

8) Robertpz

9) astrosfanforever

10) Lancealot

11) Nathan

12) My wife, Krissy

Three of the owners haven't confirmed their teams yet. If you didn't get into the league and would like to, please send me an email. I'd like a couple of backup owners in place to act as replacements if we still do not have the teams confirmed by Thursday.

Yes, my wife is one of the owners. It's not the first time she's played fantasy sports; I got her into fantasy football shortly after we started dating. She's also quite the big-talker, so she should be fun for some creative trash talking. I just hope I don't lose to her in such a public forum. That'd be too much like the Sports Guy for my tastes.

Team names will also be forthcoming.

If you're running a league of your own and haven't decided where to host it, this is also a friendly reminder that SBNation readers get a 50 percent discount on signing up for CBSSports.com's Fantasy Commissioner product. Follow this link to get the discount.

Thoughts on the Sloan Sports Conference at MIT: What can baseball fans take away from the nerdery?

2010-03-09T12:00:23Z

To me, there's nothing better than discussing sports in an intelligent, critical fashion. Some people love debating politics, or recapping the previous night's episode of American Idol or The Office. That's all good and well, but personally there's just something about athletics played at its highest levels that brings out my inner chatter box.

What's even better than me talking sports is listening to people who are smarter than myself do it.This past weekend's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was one of those summits of the who's who in American sports that had me absolutely giddy as someone who can't get enough of creative thinking in the realm of sports.Two specific panels from the Conference were of particular interest to me: the one dealing in Baseball Analytics and What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball.

On the baseball side of things, we know that statistical analysis of the sport has been gaining momentum not only with fans like ourselves, but in the mainstream mediums as well. When I heard Joe Morgan mention OBP last year, I nearly fell out of my seat. Truly, by hook or crook, sabermetrics has gained a foothold, one that it is not going to be giving up. Whereas certain teams had a strong competitive advantage at the outset of the statistical revolution, most if not all teams utilize advanced statistical analysis in some form or fashion in their decision making.

For those teams like say, the Astros, who probably don't take the analytical approach to heart, they run the risk of being left behind the learning curve. The game of baseball itself is complex, mutli layered and difficult to grasp on it's most fundamental levels. Finding the right combination of players to field a successful major league team is a task left to men who boast advanced degrees from Ivy League schools and scouting personnel who have earned their stripes watching more hours of amateur baseball than anyone should be made to. I would like to think that the Astros have begun to meld these two schools of thought together, but something tells me that they have not. I'm not saying that the organization hasn't improved itself over the past couple years, but I seriously doubt Tal Smith and Ed Wade are at the forefront of developing new methods to analyze and evaluate baseball players.

It's a culture of thinking, when you boil it down to it's most base level. Starting from the top, how front office personnel look at players and conduct business is ingrained on an organizational wide level. This culture begets another sort of culture on the field, whether it be winning or losing.

The Astros have seen what their previous culture got them- poor performance on the field and inefficiencies throughout the minor league levels. Bad drafts, poor minor league records and an aging major league team are the after affects of this sort of mismanagement. I hope, hope, hope that the Astros take the sort of analysis which the presenters at the Sloan Conference undertake to heart.

As we head into the second decade of this century, it's readily apparent that objective, statistical based analysis works to a large extent and combined with scouting enables organizations to take advantage of market inefficiencies to yield a strong on the field product. Our Astros may be behind, but they doesn't always have to be that way. They need only look across downtown Houston to see that....

My second area of interest in Sloan Conference dealt with the extent to which professional sports franchises can utilize statistical analysis before a point of diminishing returns occurs. The panel was moderated by Michael Lewis, and had such varied participants as Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, and ESPN's Bill Simmons.

In all honesty, I looked forward to hearing about the exchanges of these three men much more than Rob Neyer and other baseball executives from the Baseball Analytics panel. Simmons is a thoughtful, speak from the heart sort of guy, whose writer/fan perspective is unique. He has made a career of second guessing NBA GMs and dishing out strong criticisms on how teams are run in the Association.

Cuban is best known for his theatrics on the sidelines, but the fact remains that the man is a billionaire and is incredibly intelligent. His Mavericks are at the fore of statistical analysis in basketball.

The Boy Wonder, Dork Elvis, call him what you want, Daryl Morey is the Billy Beane of the NBA. The first "stat" GM the league has seen, Morey has been GM of the Rockets since 2006 and under his watch, the team had won fifty games in each of his first three seasons, and are playing respectable (if not frustrating) ball this season sans Yao Ming. As an MIT grad, Morey was instrumental in organizing the whole sha bang.

One topic that has driven sabermetricians mad seemingly forever is the question of clutch. Can a player be clutch, or are performances in important, high leverage situations dependent much more on circumstance, match ups and other external factors?

Michael Lewis asked Daryl Morey whether or not the Rockets utilized "clutch" stats. Morey answered this way:

We don't make any decisions based on the belief of that.

This sort of falls in line with what those in the baseball saber-community have believed for years. So, not an incredibly surprising answer. Mark Cuban, for what it's worth, said the Mavs do make decisions based on the idea of "clutch".

Without having done any real research on the subject, my own experiences and observations watching basketball lead me to believe that there is such a thing as clutch in the NBA. Or, maybe not clutch, but there certainly are players and teams that are able to put themselves in favorable situations at important junctures in a game.

While Kobe may miss 7/10 game winning shots, it is readily apparent that the Lakers and other elite teams win close games for a reason that other teams are unable to. It's not so much clutch as it is poise, composure, and experience. Players like Chauncey Billups earn nicknames like "Mr. Big Shot" from making late second plays, but to me, it's as much about his not turning the ball over and putting his teammates in optimum situations to score that separates him from other players.

I don't think these characteristics matter as much in a sport like baseball, where the actions are much more instinctual. Jason Michaels experience isn't going to gain him any advantage in the batters box, and the inexperience of Justin Upton probably won't hurt him more now than it will when he is 30. That's just a difference in the sports, or at least I find it to be that way.

Advancing the methods by which professional sports organizations make decisions makes for great discussion for fans, but is also a necessary process for the organizations themselves. Progress is unavoidable and it's best to at least stick your toe in and see what the fuss is all about. Teams have everything to gain, but nothing to lose by doing so. Hopefully gatherings like the Sloan Conference will increase the visibility of statistical analysis while simultaneously driving the continued improvements of the underlying methods of evaluation.

TCB's Players of the Week and Astros Spring Notes

2010-03-08T17:58:06Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Which one of these three is your TCB Hitter of the Week?

Browse more photos »

Our friends over at The Dream Shake have a sponsor for their player of the week award. Before we could get a sponsor for TCB, I figured we'd need to create something worth supporting. Hence, the newly created Player of the Week awards, where we'll pick the top hitter and pitcher for the previous week and discuss it each Monday.

This week, we only have four games worth of spring data to work with, but I've come up with a couple reasonable choices. In the future, we'll post a poll Sunday night with some good options and we can come to a consensus on who the awardees should be.

First up?

Hitter of the Week: RF Hunter Pence - After going 3 for 3 against Washington with two home runs, Pence was 1 for 3 with two runs, one RBI, two walks, one strikeout, a double and a triple. He finished with a slash line of .667/.750/2.167, had 10.53 Runs Created, a BABiP of .667 and a wOBA of .838. Not a bad start to the spring.

Pitcher of the Week: LHP Wesley Wright - No Astro pitcher had more than two innings of work in the first four games, but Wright had the best FIP and WHIP of the bunch. In his two innings, Wright picked up one save, allowed one hit while striking out two with a 3-1 GO/FO ratio. Wright has also not given up a walk.

Who were your POWs for the first four games?

Berkman a-okay: Lance Berkman played Saturday and Sunday's games against Atlanta after missing the first two of the spring season with a swollen knee. All the talk about how serious it might be seems to be for naught now, as Berkman went 2 for 4 with one run scored, one RBI, one walk, two strikeouts and two doubles.

His knee is still a concern, but could safely be faded into the background for the time being. The type of injury (possible arthritic condition) can reveal itself quickly or slowly, depending on a number of factors. I'm guessing Berkman doesn't miss much if any time this season.

What's interesting to consider is what happens if the knee is arthritic, yet Berkman goes out and hits like he did in 2008 when he was in the MVP talk. Would the Astros think about an extension at that point, or are they more concerned about his knee than they are letting on?

Lyon throwing well: Zach Levine tweeted today that Brandon Lyon threw 30 pitches earlier and felt file. He may move up to throwing BP by the middle of this week. The pitching staff is struggling early, but it will be very nice to get Lyon back into the fold with enough time to be ready for opening day.

Left behind: While the offense was prolific over the weekend, the Astros also left 60 men on base. Compare that to their 29 runs and they could have done a lot more damage in their two losses. The biggest culprit was Cory Sullivan, who left nine men on base while going 0 for 5 with one strikeout. T.J. Steele, Brian Bogusevic, Yordany Ramirez and Wladimir Sutil are the only Astros with at-bats who did not leave a man on base.

While that stat is not saber-friendly (it's all about context and who's in front of you), I think it shows both the good and the bad about the offense. Yes, you'd like for the hitters to come through with a few more hits with men on base. At the same time, those hitters won't always fail to get hits in those situations and that means the offense could get good in a hurry. Through four games, the Astros have scored ???? runs per game, which is over their average of 3.97 from the 2009 season.

Pitching woes: The pitching hasn't been great in the past four games. Outside of the shutout on Saturday, the Astros have given up just over 10 runs a game. Of course, that also includes a 17-run game against Detroit where Polin Trinidad didn't get an out while giving up six runs.

As a group, the pitchers have an ERA of 6.88, an FIP of 4.64, a WHIP of 2.03 and a BABiP of .347 in 34 total innings. It's safe to assume, however, that their team BB/9 rate of 6.88 won't stay that high forever, so the run totals should fall.

One positive sign here is that the staff has only given up one home run, from Yorman Bazardo. They also have a 44/34 GO/FO ratio and haven't hit a batter yet. So, there are some good signs here. This group won't struggle as much as the spring goes along (we hope) and at the very least, some of these roster-fillers will get weeded out by opening day.

Hitting stars: Individually, Hunter Pence wasn't the only Astros hitting the ball well. In addition to Berkman's two doubles, Chris Johnson had a good start with three doubles and a home run. Jason Michaels had two doubles and ahome run while generating 5.43 Runs Created. J.R. Towles was second to Pence with Runs Created at 5.96.

As a team, the Astros have 31.75 Runs Created with a slash line of .350/.383/.594 and a BABiP of .369. Yordany Ramirez was also a big contributor to this, going 3 for 4 with two runs and four RBIs. He is also the only Astro that's been caught stealing this spring. Speaking of stolen bases, the Astros only have two attempts this spring, with Pence being the only successful base thief. Mills was concerned about the Astros selectivity after the Washington game. Since then, Houston has walked seven times in three games while striking out 15 times.

Positional battles: It's early and spring stats are not good predictors of regular season success. However, they do matter for guys battling for roster spots or starting jobs. Using Runs Created, let's break down the open spots:

Fifth Outfielder: Yordany Ramirez, 3.00 RC

Catcher: J.R. Towles, 5.96 RC

Backup infielder: Edwin Maysonet, 2.50 RC

We'll keep an eye on these battles all spring. Who do you have in the lead for each spot?

The Astros try Wesley Wright out as a starter and Baseball America covers the Houston College Classic

2010-03-08T12:00:32Z

More photos » Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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In one of her more recent blog posts, Alyson Footer devotes a few paragraphs to Wesley Wright and the possibility that he could be included as a starting pitcher on this year's team. At this point, I would consider him a long shot's long shot, but if he came out of the woodwork with solid performances this spring I won't complain.

Manager Brad Mills is going to give him his opportunities, which isn't really saying much, as guys like Roy Corcoran, Gary Majewski, Josh Banks and Casey Daigle have already pitched for the Astros this spring. Someone with the upside that Wright does should be force fed into as many conceivable roles as possible on a team like this. Footer notes that the rotation is awfully thin but it's not as if the bullpen is composed of five star studs either.

What Wesley Wright can offer is someone who has shown a tremendous ability to strike batters out, though his walk totals are scarily high. It appears that MLB has wiped the 2009 Dominican Winter League stats off the face of the earth, but if memory serves his K:BB rate in just over ten starts was right around 2:1. Not terrible by any stretch, but to be a major league caliber starting pitcher this will have to improve.He is projected to do decently well this season in a relief role, which is most likely where he ends up.

If I can make a track and field comparison here, it seems like Wesley Wright is the baseball equivalent of a middle distance (800m/1600m) runner. These are the athletes who aren't sprinters, but aren't distance runners either. However, in a pinch a good middle distance runner can run a leg on the 400m relay team, or even jump up and run a distance event if necessary. Athletes like these are prized because their abilities translate better into the non specialty events better than anyone else's do. Maurice Greene was a tremendous 100m runner, but he would have struggled to run the half mile. Same for someone like Dathan Ritzenhein who is an other worldly distance man who probably couldn't fill in all that well for a miler.

Wesley Wright could be our middle distance runner. True, he has the pure strikeout stuff to be a more than competent relief pitcher, but he also throws four pitches (three with regularity) and with improved control could move into the starting pitching conversation for the Astros.

Polin Trinidad doesn't appear ready for the majors, and neither does Wilton Lopez. Fernando Abad is an interesting case in that he is sort of the anti Wright with his dominant control. The Astros are wise to give all these pitchers their shots to impress because come 2011, these are the names this team is going to lean on to bridge the gap to the Jordan Lyles/Ross Seaton (hopefully)/Tanner Bushue generation. Wesley Wright belongs in this group of next generation pitchers, and while his role is undetermined, throwing him overboard to sink or swim in whatever role the Astros can think of is wise in my opinion.

This past weekend saw the city of Houston and Minute Maid Park play host the the Houston College Classic, an annual event which showcases some of the best collegiate baseball teams from the state of Texas as well as the Missouri Tigers. Texas and Texas Christian are both top ten caliber teams, while Rice, U of H and Texas Tech are more than respectable clubs to say the least. Baseball America blogged the Classic, covering such topics as Rice coach Wayne Graham laying into his team for poor fundamentals, the Cougs upsetting UT, and almost Texas Ranger Matt Purke impressing in his start for TCU.

Texas is well known for it's history of producing a great deal of talent in college football, but our state's collegiate baseball talent is first rate as well. True, Texas is large and more universities than most states, but the quality of teams is excellent and often produces more per capita major league draftees than would normally be expected. Diamond Futures prospect guide has a top 100 pre season amateur draft chart has six players from TX schools as top 100 talents: (18) Brandon Workman, RHP, UT; (24) Chad Bettis, RHP, Texas Tech; (27) Ricky Hague, SS, Rice; (41) Michael Choice, OF, UT-Arlington; (64) Cameron Rupp, C, UT; (83) Dallas Gallant, RHP, Sam Houston St. Throw in another three players on the list who are Texas high school student athletes, and the Lone Star State is well represented at the highest levels of amateur baseball.

A Spring Training Fictional Interlude

2010-03-07T12:00:22Z

And now for something completely different...

I found this story I wrote back in 2005 just recently. It's about baseball, just not Astros baseball. All the events and names in the story were researched through Retrosheet and the like. I even pulled a couple of quotes from various newspapers of the time.

Oh, and don't be alarmed. I don't have a trove of baseball fiction ready to drop on you any time soon. Just wanted to get this one out there in lieu of my usual Friday minors column. Hope you enjoy.

It was just like any other day at the ballpark. The sun shone out from an immaculately blue sky. The grass in the outfield was so green it hurt the eyes. The firecracker thwap of a throw finding its home rose above the steady murmur of a growing crowd. It was an all-too familiar scene for me. Still, every time Dad took me to a game was as special as my first.

On this day, a Sunday, the last day in April, our family rose early for church. I was dressed even before Mom came to wake me up.

"You never should have mentioned that game," my mother chided my father.

"Oh, Mary, let the boy alone. It’s okay to be excited every once in a while."

After an interminably long service (at least for a boy my age), I practically skipped the entire way home. Baseball was too precious a gift to keep waiting.

The stock market crashed the year I was born. Times were tough for everyone and our family especially. We didn’t have money to throw away on things like baseball. Dad used to tell me how when he was my age, he would go to games four and five times a week, rushing to the field after school. Even now, he somehow found the money to bring me to a game once or twice a month. I never asked to go; I always thought other things for the family were more useful than an afternoon at the park.

Dad knew, though, that baseball was the greatest thing in my 10-year old life.

After we got home, Mom started getting lunch fixed, and I ran down to get a newspaper. I did odd jobs for the butcher on the corner just so I could earn enough money for a paper every day. I had to see how Lou did.

In an ironic twist of fate, my favorite player resided on our local team. He also happened to be the greatest player in the game. He even had the best nickname in years. How can you top the Iron Horse?

I raced back home with my find, ready to consume all the information it held. The score I saw, once I got it open, made the bile rise in my throat. Senators 3, Yankees 1. Quickly looking for the box, I saw Lou was hitless again. His average had fallen under .160.

I read on, only to see even worse news. The Yankees new young gun, Joe DiMaggio hurt a muscle in his foot and had to leave the game.

My sounds of disgust made Dad come over and look at the source.

"Gehrig still hasn’t broken through yet?" he asked. "You know last year was his first year under .300 since ’25."

"I know that!" I said, irritably. Dad smiled at me. He was just teasing me. He knew how much knowledge I had on Lou. Other kids had hobbies; I could tell you what Lou’s hobbies were as a kid (football, ice skating, and marbles to name a few).

"I’m sure he’ll pull out of it today. His number one fan will see to that." With those words, my face lightened as I remembered about the game. Unfortunately, so did my impatience. I rushed Dad through lunch so we could get going.

The trip to Yankee Stadium didn’t take long.

"Did you see who’s pitching today?" I asked Dad.

"I think the Sens are throwing Joe Krakauskas." I laughed boyishly at the awkward name and tried to mouth it a couple times. Baseball did have a ton of silly names.

"You know, son, some people might try and laugh at my name."

"Who? Who would?" I bristled. "Solomon’s a great name. He was a king in the Bible, for Pete’s sake!"

It was hard for me to fathom anyone making fun of my Dad in any way. To me, he meant so much. He was strong. He was smart. He was invincible. Dad just laughed at my protectiveness. He understood what I was thinking. In so many ways, he really was the best friend I could ask for.

"Oh, look there. The stadium looks full already," he said.

"Let’s hurry then! I don’t want to miss it!" I took off running before I realized Dad had the money for tickets. When we finally got into the stadium, I was so anxious I couldn’t stand it.

We got pretty good seats that day. Usually we couldn’t sit close, because the hecklers were so awful, Dad didn’t want me around such language.

Since it was Sunday, the crowd was on slightly better behavior, so we got seats right by first base. I was in heaven.

It wasn’t long after we sat down that the game started. The Yanks got a one-two-three inning, hopefully a good sign for the rest of the game.

In the bottom of the first, the leadoff man grounded out, followed by a strikeout, and Lou coming up with the bases empty.

I heard a voice behind me say, "Ahh, that Gehrig’s done. Did you see that game yesterday?" His partner muttered a negative. "He just doesn’t have it anymore. Pitches he used to crush are ending up right at the outfield. He used to hit it 500 feet. Now…I’m tellin’ ya, the bum’s done."

His words stung, but I knew better than to turn around and defend Lou. Dad told me when I was younger about a Browns game where a riot broke out in the stands. Fans were more dangerous than baseballs.

I was determined to prove the naysayers wrong, though. I willed Lou to get a hit. He had to.

Dad reached over and patted my knee as the fastball ran right past Lou’s bat. Oh for 1.

I noticed Dad’s squinting eyes watching Lou walk back to the dugout. Trouble flickered through my mind, but left as quickly as it came. There was talk that Lou had a gall bladder disease, but I didn’t believe it. He was the Iron Horse. No one had played more consecutive games, since he took over for Wally Pipp all those years ago. This was number 2,130 if I had counted right. I was convinced he was fine.

One of my favorite newspaper quotes came from Hank Goudy. He once said, "Gehrig never learned that a ballplayer couldn’t be good every day."

I liked that for so many reasons. It really was Lou. He was so mild-mannered, the direct opposite of the Babe. He could do anything he put his mind to. It made all this talk of being finished silly to me. Did they not realize who they were talking about? I remember thinking.

Still, that little doubt I saw in Dad’s eyes wouldn’t go away.

Later in the game, after Oh for 2 and Oh for 3 had come and gone, Lou scalded a ball that looked headed for the gap in left. Until it fell harmlessly into the shortstop’s glove, about four steps behind second base, that is. I didn’t believe it. I wouldn’t believe it.

In the top of the next inning, it all came to a head. There was a soft come-backer hit at pitcher Johnny Murphy. My eyes were glued to Lou. His footwork and fielding made playing first base an art form. I loved watching him field. This time, he went to his left routinely to cover the bag.

There was a problem, though. His legs didn’t go with him. He struggled to get over to the bag, his feet not responding nearly in time. He just narrowly beat the runner and made the out. I had never seen him make such an easy play look so hard.

We were close enough to the dugout that I could hear the players. As Lou walked back in, they congratulated him with a "good play" here and a "nice pickup" there.

I put my head in my hands. I knew something was wrong. The Iron Horse was fading before my eyes. I kept waiting for the hecklers to sound their disappointment, for the men behind me to start with their, "I told you so’s." They never came.

Neither did Lou, for that matter. He took himself out after that inning, replaced by Babe Dahlgren. The Yanks went on to lose 3-2, but it didn’t matter. I had lost much more that day.

Two days later, I read Lou wasn’t in the lineup. I wasn’t surprised. I knew that Sunday. Dad also knew, and he’d been trying to lighten my mood ever since.

I was inconsolable.

Lou was born in New York City, just like me. He was born on June 19, just like me. He was even German, like my mom. I didn’t want him to be gone so soon.

When Lou Gehrig Appreciation Day came on July 4, Dad had to work. I somehow managed to smuggle myself into the stadium, on the promise I’d leave right after the ceremony.

I heard the speech. As soon as he said, "I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth," tears clouded my eyes. It was too much.

On June 2, 1941, Lou Gehrig died.

Fifteen years later, I sat by my dad, lying in a bed much as I imagine Mr. Gehrig did. After that day at Yankee Stadium, I realized my hero, my role model wasn’t wearing pinstripes, after all. He sat beside me, and had for years. All the things I imagined about Mr. Gehrig were there in my dad.

Just like Mr. Gehrig, he was battling a foe he couldn’t beat. I’d like to believe it was a disease of class, affecting only the purest souls. My father certainly fit the bill.

The two greatest men I had known died exactly 15 years apart. Every year, I go to my father’s grave and leave a quote I borrowed. It may have been said about one, but it was meant for both of them.

The paper always reads:

"He was the kind of man that if you had a son, he’s the kind of person you’d like your son to be."

Amen.

I wrote this story about a year after my dad was diagnosed with ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease). It's a very sentimental look at a father-son, kid-baseball player dynamic. Yes, parents are never as perfect as kids think and yes, ballplayers probably shouldn't be heroes.

If I were expanding this, I'd probably write more about the moral ambiguity of the father. I'd show him doing things that we'd see as not great, but that the son wouldn't quite grasp. I'd also show a little more about the kid's favorite memory of Gehrig and not just the last time he saw him play.

But, I think that last game has poignance too. This was also shortly after Jeff Bagwell had most of his season ended with the arthritic shoulder. As I've mentioned before, I saw his first game out of the lineup and I saw his return late in the season against the Cubs. Both memories are linked for me. One day when I tell my son about Bagwell, I'll mention those games, but I'll also mention the Fourth of July where I saw Bagwell hit a home run into the night sky, just after the roof opened. Or the story of his goatee gone wild. They're all intertwined.

The point of the story is not that parents or players are 'pure.' They have never been that, because they are all human. No, the point is trying to remember a time when our own perspective showed us the purity in others. Sometimes, I'm sure we all wish we could see our parents and our ball players the same way we did when we were kids. Sometimes, it's nice to think about things in a sappy, Field of Dreams way. What better time for that than in spring training?

This is a piece of fiction, we're a baseball website. Feel free to talk about the story, but let's talk about baseball. Were there any players that you had a connection to as a kid? Anyone you couldn't wait to see at the ballpark? Do you have a favorite memory of seeing the Astros as a kid?

The Crawfish Boxes

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

ST Game No. 12: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

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