The Crawfish Boxes

TCB Fantasy League Draft: Who Goes First?

2010-03-17T18:00:22Z

Where does Carlos get drafted?

We are five days away from the TCB Fantasy draft, so let's have an open thread to talk about where guys should be drafted. With a 16-team league, this is going to be one of the deeper drafts that I've hosted, so where should guys like Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman go?

For that matter, who goes in the first round? As a reminder, our point system does reward defense. Does that push Hanley Ramirez up to the top? Or is Albert Pujols still the unquestioned No. 1?

The other interesting thing about this league is that there are no rate stats. It's purely based on counting stats. Should that change the draft boards?

As a reference, here's the top 10 for our scoring system that was provided by CBSSports.com

All Players Projections MLB Our League Stats
Player	Team	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	CSC	DPT	E	HP	KO	OFAST	RBI	R	SB-CS	FPTS
Pujols, Albert	Free Agent	102	40	0	43	105	0	0	0	0	60	0	127	110	6	672.0
Fielder, Prince	Free Agent	91	35	4	45	105	0	0	0	0	131	0	120	105	1	618.5
Howard, Ryan	Free Agent	87	35	2	46	94	0	0	0	0	189	0	144	105	0	595.5
Rodriguez, Alex	Free Agent	98	30	0	40	85	0	0	0	0	120	0	125	110	12	590.0
Teixeira, Mark	Free Agent	100	40	2	38	75	0	0	0	0	114	0	125	105	2	588.0
Gonzalez, Adrian	Free Agent	94	35	0	39	115	0	0	0	0	129	0	110	104	1	585.5
Braun, Ryan	Free Agent	109	40	7	37	55	0	0	0	0	131	0	115	110	12	584.5
Utley, Chase	Free Agent	100	40	0	30	80	0	0	0	0	102	0	107	117	20	573.0
Mauer, Joe	Free Agent	132	30	0	30	82	0	0	0	0	62	0	100	100	4	567.0
Cabrera, Miguel	Free Agent	118	38	0	35	72	0	0	0	0	121	0	115	100	2	562.5

This projection system doesn't include any of the fielding stats or HBP. As a comparison, here's the top 10 pitchers (while HBP and holds aren't projected).

All Players Projections MLB Our League Stats
Player	Team	BBI	W	L	K	HA	HB	HD	INN	K	L	S	FPTS
Lincecum, Tim	Free Agent	65	17	6	260	170	0	0	225.0	260	6	0	587.0
Sabathia, CC	Free Agent	65	21	7	201	204	0	0	229.0	201	7	0	544.5
Verlander, Justin	Free Agent	60	17	9	251	209	0	0	230.0	251	9	0	528.5
Halladay, Roy	Free Agent	35	17	9	200	222	0	0	230.0	200	9	0	527.0
Hernandez, Felix	Free Agent	70	18	8	220	215	0	0	230.0	220	8	0	524.0
Wainwright, Adam	Free Agent	67	18	8	200	215	0	0	225.0	200	8	0	500.0
Haren, Dan	Free Agent	42	14	8	201	201	0	0	220.0	201	8	0	494.5
Greinke, Zack	Free Agent	55	14	10	230	205	0	0	220.0	230	10	0	490.0
Lester, Jon	Free Agent	65	16	6	220	200	0	0	215.0	220	6	0	490.0
Beckett, Josh	Free Agent	55	18	8	205	201	0	0	215.0	205	8	0	487.5

We also need to come up with a good way to select draft position. I'm not averse to picking out of a hat, but if someone has a more creative idea, I'm all for it.

Oh, and here's a look at the divisions and team names so far. Some of the teams are still "Team 11," but we've got some creative entries so far.

If you haven't signed up for your league yet and are looking for a site to host it, the Commissioner League is 50 percent off for SBNation users. Just follow this link to get the discount. As an added bonus, any SBNation user who signs up for a league will get a free TCB t-shirt for the league champion. Pretty sweet, huh? We can also run your league standings in our monthly update post during the season and you can keep us updated on how things are going with FanPosts. Reason enough to sign up, right?

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Commissioner League.

ST Game No. 13: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

2010-03-17T17:00:21Z

Grapefruit League record (thought meaningless): 6-6

Today's starters: LHP Wandy Rodriguez vs. RHP Jason Marquis

Other pitchers scheduled for today are Tim Byrdak, Gustavo Chacin, Roy Corcoran and Wilton Lopez.

Lineups for today, courtesy of Zach Levine's Twitter:

1) Michael Bourn, CF

2) Kazuo Matsui, 2B

3) Hunter Pence, RF

4) Carlos Lee, LF

5) Chris Shelton, 1B

6) Chris Johnson, 3B

7) Tommy Manzella, SS

8) Humberto Quintero, C

9) Wandy Rodriguez, P

Listen to the game here. If you are in the Houston area, you can listen to the game on 790 KBME.

Astros Spring Notebook

2010-03-17T11:00:29Z

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

UPDATE: The Astros cut 12 players from camp Wednesday, reassigning Fernando Abad, Brian Bogusevic, Evan Englebrook, Chia-jen Lo, Matt Nevarez, Yordany Ramirez, Lou Santangelo, Wladimir Sutil, Polin Trinidad, Jose G Valdez and Henry Villar to minor league camp. The team also gave Alex Romero his unconditional release, meaning he becomes a free agent immediately. Any surprises here?

Let's lead this off with another note from Morgan Ensberg's excellent blog. In this one, he responds to a user's question about whether he used steroids with a very well-thought out and insightful answer.

The only thing I saw in the clubhouse was "greenies" which I have done about 10 times. Greenies are basically "uppers" and they didn’t do anything to me. I am not sure if that is a good thing.

I drink a ton of coffee and would drink something like 2 redbulls before a game if I felt sluggish.

I always use this analogy. In Hermosa Beach, where I grew up, there were a bunch of kids who smoked weed. I was asked if I wanted to smoke, but I said no and that was the end of it.

I eventually smoked in college about 30 times and I liked it. But I noticed that it made me eat a lot and I didn’t need any help in that department.

Back to the point, I didn’t smoke so I wasn’t in "that club". If you are not in the group then you have no idea what guys are doing it. The same thing happened in college with cocaine. I have never done cocaine, but some of my buddies did and I had no idea. I just thought that they were really hyper.

My opinion is this. I can’t fault anyone for doing steroids because they are trying to do everything they can to get to the big leagues. I played in the Dominican and Venezuela and nothing you say will change my opinion on a guy making a decision to feed his family. This isn’t apples and apples.

I don’t even think that those guys who did do steroids pushed me out of the game. I had the ability to play the game at the highest level and that is really cool to me.

It's an interesting analogy made about the pot smokers and the non-users. Extrapolating it out further, doesn't it make sense that guys who were 'in the club' like Jose Canseco would want to paint more people with the same brush stroke? What was the real percentage of users in baseball? My guess is that it was lower than the Mitchell Report would have us believe but higher than they admitted at the time.

Another interesting point is made about Latin American players. How many of these guys have been popped for steroids? Miguel Tejada is the only one I can think of off the top of my head. I know there have been some minor leaguers recently hit with 50-game bans for taking controlled substances, but was there anyone from that late 90's era? Just an interesting point to ponder.

The more major leaguers and former major leaguers we can get to talk about these things, the better. This blog by Ensberg is the one thing baseball fans lack lots of time: first-hand interaction with guys playing the game at its highest level. I can't wait for more posts!

Vallejo optioned: Jose Vallejo cleared waivers Tuesday and was outrighted to Round Rock. The 24-year old second baseman is still recovering from surgery to repair the tendons in his hand, which he sliced while cooking at his home in the Dominican Republic.

Obviously, no team was going to claim a player who will already be missing the season. What I wonder is what the Astros have planned for that extra spot on the 40-man roster. That's exactly the kind of flexibility that gives Ed Wade the chance to make a shrewd trade or waiver pickup.

It also gives them the chance to keep a non-roster guy on the big league roster with Berkman's injury. More likely, this is a move to keep a guy like Chris Shelton on the roster if Berkman needs to be put on the DL to start the season. That way, as clack said earlier this week, Blum and Shelton could split playing time for the first couple of weeks.

Lyon throwing Thursday: I mentioned it in Tuesday's game thread, but Brandon Lyon was cleared to pitch in a real, live game on Thursday and will be making his Astros debut against his old team, the Detroit Tigers.

Considering Lyon had his 'Controlled' game pushed up to Tuesday, I wonder if he saw the Tigers on the schedule and pushed Brad Mills to get him ready to face them. While there may not be bad blood between Lyon and the Tigers' front office, being dumped just isn't very fun. Here's hoping he's healthy and effective to show them he deserved that 15 million dollar deal...Wait, shouldn't he be trying to show US the same thing?

Johnson and Johnson: In case you missed it, Astros minor league third baseman Chris Johnson got to play against his dad, Red Sox first base coach Ron Johnson, on Tuesday. The two got to exchange lineup cards before the game and Chris was able to make a couple good defensive plays not five feet away from his father, who was able to coach at third for this game only.

From Alden Gonzalez' story on Astros.com:

"It was a weird feeling. It really was. Because it's different. I've never been in a situation where you look out there and go, 'Well, he's a good player, I like the second baseman, and I love the third baseman -- literally! It's kind of strange."

Every now and then, you get a spring training story that has no bearing on the season, won't affect anything else, but could only happen in Florida or Arizona. Like Garth Brooks playing in the outfield for a charity. Or Tim Raines and Tim Raines Jr. both playing in the same outfield one spring. It's getting to see legends like Sandy Koufax up close or future stars like Stephen Strasburg. My wife asked me the other day why I like spring training so much better than football preseason. I don't know that I have a good answer, but I think it has something to do with stories like these.

Roy looks good: Another strong outing for Roy Oswalt on Tuesday means the Astros may have their ace back. Oswalt got nine ground ball outs, which tells me that he's not only confident in his defense, but that whatever changes he and Brad Arnsberg made are working.

Oswalt's start also put him in line to pitch on Opening Day. Assuming that Wandy pitches tomorrow, does that mean Brett Myers will be the third guy, or will Bud Norris slot in there? Technically, the No. 3 starter doesn't have to pitch right behind your Nos. 1 and 2. it's all about performance, right? At the same time, this week's pitching order could tell us a little more about the new skipper.

Tommy Manzella vs. Brendan Ryan

2010-03-16T18:13:53Z

More photos » Charlie Riedel - AP

Houston Astros' Tommy Manzella is forced out at second during a spring training baseball game Sunday, March 14, 2010, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Let me start off by admitting that I haven't been the most optimistic person about Tommy Manzella, who will be the Astros' starting shortstop. My fear has been that his offense will be very bad in his first year, and that his defense will not be as good as advertised. Manzella is having a nice spring so far. He is hitting and bunting as well as can be expected. I haven't watched a game yet (audio only for me, so far this spring), but based on what I've heard, his defense has looked good.

For a number of reasons that we all know about, spring training performance shouldn't be given a lot of weight. And the sample size at this point of the spring training is ridiculously small. So, I won't lean on Manzella's spring performance to say that he is better than we think. However, in keeping with the optimism that surrounds spring training, I asked myself, "What kind of realistically possible comparable performance would I want from Manzella as a starting shortstop?"

Two of the Astros' rivals in the NL Central, Chicago and St. Louis, have starting shortstops who might be reasonably compared to Manzella. Ryan Theriot of the Cubs and Brendan Ryan of the Cardinals were older minor leaguers with the good defense/weak offense reps whom were handed starting shortstop jobs over the last couple of years. Both have had reasonable success so far. Theriot had a 3.1 WAR season in 08 and a 2.8 WAR season in 09. Ryan had a poor 2008 (0.8 WAR) and a good 2009 (3.1 WAR). CHONE and fans predict Theriot with a 2.2 - 3.1 WAR, and Ryan is projected at 2.7 - 2.8 WAR. Looking at their stats, I view Manzella as more similar to Brendan Ryan than Theriot. Theriot profiles as a player with better plate discipline, a better walk rate, and better OBP than Ryan and Manzella.

Looking into their minor league records, I was surprised at the similarity between Brendan Ryan and Tommy Manzella.

Ryan is almost exactly one year older than Manzella. Ryan became the St. Louis shortstop for much of 2008 at the age of 27, the same age as Manzella this year. The career minor league offensive stats for both players are shown below.

Ryan 902 AB, .274 BA, .328 OBP, .364 SLG, .692 OPS .309 BABIP, 57% GB, 12.5% LD

Manzella 1977 AB, .268 BA, .321 OBP, .370 SLG, .691 OPS, .318 BABIP, 55% GB, 15.9% LD

I have to tell you that I am surprised at the similarity of the rate stats for Manzella and Ryan as major leaguers. If you neutralize for ballpark and "luck," Manzella's batting average and OPS increase to .270 and .696, and Ryan's batting average and OPS decrease to .271 and .682. It's hard to clearly distinguish the two players' performance, but the advanced stats might suggest that Manzella was a slightly better offensive player in the minors.

For further comparison, I'll look at the triple slash lines for the last two years of significant experience in minor league ball for each player: Manzella 2008 .259, .310, 369, .679; 2009 .292, .342, .418, .760. Ryan 2007 .273, .330, .342, .672; 2008 .250, .299, .417, .716. Again, fairly comparable. But, if anything, Manzella heads to the majors with better offensive performance in his last two minor league seasons.

Ryan and Manzella appear to have similar plate discipline characteristics. CHONE projects a 6.3% BB rate for Ryan and 6.4% for Manzella. Manzella may strike out more than Ryan, with a CHONE projected BB/K rate of .31 for Manzella and .44 for Ryan. The K rates for Manzella and Ryan are roughly the same in the minors (15% range).

The most significant value of Ryan is his defensive contribution. Ryan's ML career UZR/150 at shortstop is +13.9. That is very good, and makes him one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball.

I think this may be one of the question marks about Manzella. He has a reputation for good defense, but is he capable of making the kind of defensive contribution at shortstop which is comparable to Ryan? And I don't know the answer. However, if his defense is as good as Ryan's, we might be quite pleased with Manzella.

From a defensive metric standpoint, all we have for Manzella is Total Zone (TZ), which is a crude measure. Manzella's TZ has been erratic, with good results at a particular level followed by bad results at the next level. Manzella's TZ per 150 innings averages about +8 at AAA. What were Ryan's TZ results? Ryan also has an inconclusive TZ pattern over his minor league career. Ryan's AAA TZ/150 is +8 ---the same as Manzella's. I'm not sure what that tells us. Maybe it just says that TZ isn't a great measure of defense. However, it also could be consistent with the potential for Manzella to perform similarly to Ryan at the ML level.

Overall, Brendan Ryan and Thomas Manzella seem like very comparable players. That's not saying that Manzella is comparable to a star shortstop, because Ryan is far from that level. And, frankly, given his BABIP in 2009, Ryan is due for some offensive regression next year. (Since he is a Cardinal, that's fine with me.) But the comparison could indicate the potential for Manzella to be a decent contributor. However, I hope that Manzella doesn't take this comparison too far. One thing I dislike is the ridiculous high red leggings worn by Ryan last year. I hope we don't see that from Manzella.

Astros on MLB Network's 30 in 30

2010-03-16T18:00:27Z

Here are some tidbits from last night's 30 Clubs in 30 Days:

Mitch Williams claims that if Berkman just had debris cleaned out of his knee, he should be back in no time. In fact, Williams said he had the same procedure when he was with the Astros and was throwing within three days.
Berkman says he's back into baseball activities within a week and a half to two weeks. He downplayed the possibility of starting on Opening Day, saying he'd rather be healthy than rushing back for "one game." Sounds like he might not have even had the surgery if it happened during the season.
It's a good thing too, because I saw on the scroll that Darin Erstad is still unsigned. I just hope Wade doesn't get trigger-happy and call him in if Berkman misses too much time.
Roy Oswalt said the younger guys do come to him for advice, but the real problem is getting "Cudly Budly" to shut up at times. He also said that the important thing about a pitching coach is not to try and change mechanics during games. He said Brad Arnsberg had talked to him about changing a couple things on his hand and glove placement, but they haven't changed anything since then. Sounds like the problem Oswalt may have had with Dewey Robinson was messing with his delivery during the game.
Roy said Wandy has the best curveball in the majors. He even said, "guys sit on his curve and still can't hit it." Surprisingly, he didn't mention any of Brian Moehler's pitches in the same glowing terms.
Both John Hart and Roy said the biggest concern with Bud Norris is his control. Roy mentioned his problems are keeping the ball down in the zone while Hart and Williams both commented that Norris has top-of-the-rotation stuff if his control is good.
The studio guys have been talking a lot about Myers as a reliever. Williams said Myers is in Houston because Wade is a "loyal guy." He also said Myers has "different gears" when on the mound and implied that he might take some effort off at times when he's starting.
Terms used to describe Manzella "not good range," "steady," "fundamentally sound." Why does that not conjure up images of Ozzie Smith? Williams did make the point that he's got to be an improvement over Miguel Tejada, who "was a third baseman by the middle of last season." That made me chuckle.
Also funny: Carlos Lee hitting like Ichiro in batting practice. Because, you know, he can beat out so many infield hits.
The talk about the minor leagues was predictable and what we've heard before. Top ten of note: Jay Austin, Jason Castro, Collin DeLome, Jon Gaston, Chris Johnson, Chia-jen Lo, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Manzella, Jio MIer, Ross Seaton. Hart liked Mier best, saying he's got the best upside in the system. Hart also went out on a limb and said Jason Castro could make an impact this season.
The homegrown all-time team? Craig Biggio at catcher, Ken Caminiti at third, Julio Lugo at short, Joe Morgan at second, Lance Berkman at first, Luis Gonzalez in left, Cesar Cedeno in center, Rusty Staub in right, JR RIchard as a starter, Billy Wagner as reliever. Apparently, Jimmy Wynn wasn't eligible since he came up as Reds property. What do you think of this list?
Hah. Funniest Geoff Blum lines: "Lance who?" while in the cage, "This is the Lance Drill" as he ran to third and then put his hands on his knees to catch his breath. AND HE QUOTED BULL DURHAM! I know I've been down on Blum this offseason, but that's too awesome. Geoff Blum for MVP!
Prime 9 Astros moments: 9) Roger Clemens moves up on strikeout list 8) Craig Biggio gets 3,000th hit 7) MIke Scott's no-hitter clinches NL West 6) Mike Scott strikes out 14 in NLCS 5) Denny Walling sac-fly in 1980 NLCS 4) Jeff Kent home run in 2004 NLCS 3) Chris Burke walk-off in 2005 NLDS (falsely reported as being in 2004) 2) Nolan Ryan throws fifth no-hitter 1) Astros advance to World Series in 2005

Let's end on this. Discuss those moments and anything else from the program.

ST Games No. 11 & 12: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox and at New York Yankees

2010-03-16T17:00:37Z

Grapefruit League Record (essentially meaningless anyways): 5-5

Today's starters: RHP Roy Oswalt vs. LHP Jon Lester; RHP Brian Moehler vs. RHP A.J. Burnett

Per Zach Levine:

Against Boston

1) Michael Bourn, CF

2) Kazuo Matsui, 2B

3) J.R. Towles, C

4) Carlos Lee, LF

5) Chris Johnson, 3B

6) Chris Shelton, 1B

7) Cory Sullivan, RF

8) Humberto Quintero, DH

9) Tommy Manzella, SS

Against New York:

1) Jason Bourgeois, CF

2) Jeff Keppinger, 2B

3) Hunter Pence, RF

4) Geoff Blum, 1B

5) Pedro Feliz, 3B

6) Jason Michaels, LF

7) Jason Castro, C

8) Edwin Maysonet, SS

9) Brian Bogusevic, DH

Farmstros correspondant in Spring Training, Jonathan Fixler is on the roster for the Boston game and could see his first big league action this spring.

Listen to the games here. If you are in the Houston area, listen to the game on 790 KBME.

Does Denard Span's new contract with Minnesota affect Hunter Pence and the Astros?

2010-03-16T11:00:21Z

More photos » Charlie Riedel - AP

The Astros should take a page out of Minnesota's playbook in dealing with Hunter Pence

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This past Saturday saw the Minnesota Twins make a Minnesota Twins-like move in signing lead off hitter and centerfielder Denard Span to a 5 yr/$16.5 million contract. The details of the contract as you can see (if you clicked on the link) are ridiculous in their reasonableness. The per year salaries increase conservatively, buying out multiple arbitration eligible years for the certainty that goes with a long term contract.

Given that he's only going to be 26 this season, the best is probably yet to come. Even if it doesn't come and 2009 is the high water mark in his career, none of the per season salary values are out of line with what his on field production would be. After playing only part of the 2008 with the Twins, Span broke out in 2009, turning in a 3.9 win season. This deal ends when Span will be the ripe old age of 31. Certainly seems rather low risk/high reward for Minnesota.

Just one year ahead of Span, in terms of ML experience, is Hunter Pence. The Astros chose to go to arbitration with Hunter in lieu of attempting to sign him to a long term contract. He will earn $3.5 million this season after rebounding well in 2009 after a disappointing sophomore slump campaign in 2008.

Of course when a player of similar age and position signs a new contract, I get interested in what the Astros are going to do with Pence. Does Ed Wade wait and see how Hunter does to start the season in 2010 and begin to think beyond the one year increments that has been the approach with not only him but Michael Bourn? At this juncture, with potentially so much payroll coming off the books after this season, I think this is the prudent approach to take.

Perhaps with a player like Span, the Twins see less room for either great improvement or great regression in terms of skills and overall performance. Denard is a high contact rate, high walk guy whose career numbers indicate that he isn't likely to deviate from that trajectory. Defensively Span wasn't all that well thought of in centerfield, which should be interesting this season since Carlos Gomez now plays across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin for Milwaukee. That shouldn't take away from the positives of this contract for the Twins, as they showed faith in a player whose performance in 2009 looks very repeatable in the years going forward.

As for Pence, we know that he will most likely never be a .400 OBP player, but he should make up for this short coming by hitting the ball harder and farther much more than Denard Span. I would tend to believe that with his skill set Hunter offers the Astros much more room for both success and failure (relatively speaking). Without the sort of plate discipline and contact skills as Span, our Right Fielder can fall into greater slumps at the plate, but his power bat can push Pence past Span offensively all things being equal.

2010 hasn't even started for our Astros, but if you'll allow me to look ahead to 2011, you will see a team that looks much different than this season's. The only guarantees to be here (barring trades) among those players currently under multi year contracts are Brandon Lyon, Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt. Option seasons are available for Brett Myers, Lance Berkman and Geoff Blum, but it's entirely possible that none of those players return...even Lance. Raises will be due to Pence, Bourn and Wandy Rodriguez in some form or fashion, whether it be via arbitration or a longer term contract. The Astros will have payroll flexibility, something that has not been the case since before the Clemens/Kent/Pettitte years. If Hunter Pence performs as well as we think he can, it will be exciting to see if the Astros heed the lessons learned from Denard Span's new contract with Minnesota.

TCB Players of the Week and Astros Stock Watch

2010-03-15T21:07:44Z

More photos » Charlie Riedel - AP

3 days ago: Former President George H.W. Bush tips his hat for a photo as he watches a spring training baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Houston Astros Sunday, March 14, 2010 in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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That's right, TCB's (soon to be sponsored) Players of the Week is back. Who are this week's honorees?

Hitter of the Week: 3B Pedro Feliz - Continuing a hot streak, Feliz was 7 for 13 last week with three runs scored, two RBIs, three strikeouts, two doubles and a home run. His slash line of .538/.538/.923 helped him to a team-high 6.46 runs created, a .667 BABiP and a .618 wOBA. He, like many of the Astros this spring, hasn't walked much at all. In fact, Feliz doesn't have a walk yet in 21 at-bats. However, his defense has been sparkling. If he can keep hitting with a little average and keeps his average up around .260, he'll do very nicely in the sixth hole.

Pitcher of the Week: RHP Matt Lindstrom - Two scoreless appearances this week saw Lindstrom throw three perfect innings with two strikeouts. He also had a 2/5 GO/FO ratio and an FIP of 1.87. Lyon will start throwing in live, though 'controlled,' games Wednesday. Is that too much time for him to unseat Lindstrom as the closer? Evan brought up the salient points about the battle earlier today, but this may become more about time and innings pitched than stuff.

Let's see how some of the other players in camp have been doing with the Stock Watch:

RHP Brett Myers - slow riser: Myers had possibly the best outing yet by a starter on Sunday, throwing four innings while allowing two earned runs, three walks and striking out six. His ERA and FIP are still high, but he hasn't even thrown his breaking pitches much this spring.

2B Kazuo Matsui - rising: The oft-injured second baseman has been healthy and hitting well this spring. He went 4 for 11 with four runs scored, a double and a home run last week. While his stats don't necessarily mean his 2010 season will be better than 2009, it's a good sign that he is healthy and swinging the bat well.

C Jason Castro - dropping slightly: It was his missed games due to the flu that puts Castro's stock on a decline. While he still went 3 for 6 last week, those missed games might be just the buffer J.R. Towles needs to distance himself.

OF Cory Sullivan - dropping: Sullivan picked up two hits this week, but left another nine runners on base. He did play some center field and remains left-handed. However, he hasn't done anything with the ample playing time he's been given. Spring stats may be meaningless, but Sullivan needs to get his bat going in a hurry if he wants to make the team.

OF Drew Locke - quickly rising: Locke made a brief but notable appearance in big league games last week, going 2 for 3 with a run scored, two RBIs, a double and a home run. There's very little chance Locke makes the opening day roster. However, his strong showing lately may have made enough of an impression on Mills and Co. to deserve a midseason call-up.

LHP Tim Byrdak - falling sharply: Richard Justice has done a video and written an article on Tim Byrdak recently. His back story is inspiring and I'm certainly rooting for him. The fact is that lefthanded relievers are more fungible than most relievers. Byrdak is having a rough spring and had a terrible time last week (22.50 ERA, 13.50 FIP, 4.00 WHIP). He's still got the inside track on the lefty spot in the bullpen, but he's definitely on thin ice.

LHP Wesley Wright - falling: Wright was skipped over in his chance to start on Saturday. He hasn't been great this spring and will probably be ticketed for Round Rock to continue his transition into a starter. I actually think he may be one of the first players sent to minor league camp this week.

RHP Gary Majewski - bottomed out: A victim of a terrible BABiP, Majewski hasn't really done anything to make himself stand out from the other middle relief candidates. He really can't hurt himself any more, but it's not looking like he can

RHP Henry Villar - slowly rising: In three appearances, Villar has struck out two while allowing one hit and one earned run. For a guy who's never appeared above Low A ball, that's pretty amazing by itself. It has to make the Astros optimistic about his future and may get him stationed in Corpus Christi

RHP Chia-jen Lo - dropping slightly: Not a good week for Lo. His control didn't seem to be great and he wasn't striking many batters out. This probably just affirms the Astros opinion that he should spend some more time in the minors, with a ticket to Round Rouck.

Minor leaguers who have appeared in Big League Spring Training games: Evan Englebrook, Jose Valdez, Fernando Abad, Josh Banks, Henry Villar, Chia-jen Lo, Brian Bogusevic, Chris Johnson, Jason Castro, Edwin Maysonet, TJ Steele, Drew Meyer, Kevin Cash, Alex Romero, Brian Esposito, Lou Santangelo, Koby Clemens, Wladimir Sutil, JB Shuck, Drew Locke, Marco Cabral, Brandon Barnes, Matt Kata

Morgan Ensberg tells us something we didn't know about that Pujols HR off Lidge

2010-03-15T16:15:06Z

Morgan Ensberg tells us something we didn't know about that Pujols HR off Lidge

Of course, I'm referring to the 9th inning of Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS. That shot may go down in Astros' infamy. But Morgan Ensberg explains in his blog that the HR would have never happened if he was properly positioned, more toward the hole, for David Eckstein's at bat. Ensberg says that Garner tried to position him properly, but a problem in the manager's vantage point created an optical illusion. Ensberg says he didn't question the manager's instructions, because he assumed that the positioning must have something to do with Lidge's plan of attack on Eckstein. An interesting read.

Who's your Astros closer, A preview worth noting and the Crawfish Boxes NCAA Bracket Challenge

2010-03-15T11:00:26Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

20 days ago: Houston Astros pitcher Brandon Lyon throws during spring training baseball, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2010, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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It's a tough decision. None of us have ever been in the position to have to decide on who should close out games for a MLB team, but on a smaller scale, we've been there. Two situations come to mind:

Women. It's the age old question of which girl do ya choose: the sensible, reliable, doesn't knock your socks off with her looks but you could do a whole lot worse, OR, the 10 who is sorta scatterbrained and likes American Idol a little too much, but...she's a 10! Either could ultimately make you happy, but their ways of getting you to that ultimate happiness are different.
Cars. In the end, Point A to Point B is the goal, but we know that isn't everything that goes into someone's decision making process when deciding on a new car. Great gas mileage but not as sporty vs. 10 miles/gallon but wows you (and maybe Woman No. 2) with the aesthetics. Maybe you spend more time in the shop with the second car, but when everything is running smoothly...

It could be that these aren't perfect comparisons, but I think you can see what I'm going for here. Brandon Lyon is the sensible girl who may or may not listen to Iron and Wine while Matt Lindstrom is the beauty whose footwear choices may be a bit questionable.

With Lyon coming back after an off season shoulder surgery, his progress will be slower in coming than that of Lindstrom who has pitched air-tight this spring.

The differences in their respective approaches are obvious. Matt Lindstrom has the more "traditional" closer stuff with a 96 MPH fastball and a sharp slider to his credit. On the other side of things, Brandon Lyon throws three pitches (fastball, slider, curve) and is coming off a season where all three were successful when thrown. His BABIP was low even for a reliever (.229), so an ERA regression is in order to some degree I would think.

All things considered, Lindstrom's heater/slider combo doesn't induce the high amount of strikeouts that you may expect. Coupled with his inability to control his pitches, Lindstrom would probably struggle in the closer's role to a fair extent. Among relief pitchers with at least 40 IP last season, none of the top ninth inning men had a K/9 rate at or near Lindstrom's 7.42.

Throw in the control issues and Lyon may be our best option in the ninth. If nothing else, going with a hot hand may not be the worst way to go. Potentially four pitchers could get time as the Astros' closer this season- Lindstrom, Lyon, Sammy Gervacio and Alberto Arias. All have their strengths. All of them have holes as well. We've covered Lindstrom and Lyon already, but Arias struggles with control as well, while Gervacio is a situational pitcher at this point due to tough times getting left handed hitters out.

If healthy, my vote goes to Brandon Lyon despite the fact that I would like him more as a set up man to a dare I say it...Jose Valverde-type closer. That's not the situation we have to deal with in 2010, so he may be the best bet to hold down the ninth inning.

We've gone through tons of team previews on TCB so far this off season and thankfully the season is approaching so we won't have to read any more. That all being said.....read one more.

I think I like this preview because it could very well have been written by David, Stephen or myself. It takes into account the fact that the team has seen better days, but isn't so bombastic as to make it appear that Drayton McLane eats puppies or that Ed Wade struggles worse as a GM than Charlie from Flowers for Algernon. In fact, the writer of this preview, Brian Joseph, believes that much like he did in Philadelphia, Wade will eventually get his due in Houston for helping to steady the ship that had blown off course.

I also liked how he ranked Koby Clemens are our fifth best prospect. I don't know if that's even close to fair, but the fact that somebody noticed Clemens is pretty cool/rare.

Joseph's assessment of the next three years for the Astros:

A continued effort of half rebuilding and half competing should keep the Astros fairly mediocre and slightly better or worse depending on luck. The door should close on the Berkman and Lee era with the Oswalt era not far behind. Although Baseball America projects Chris Johnson (at third), Jiovanni Mier (at short), Ross Seaton and Jordan Lyles (in the rotation), and Sam Gervacio (as closer), McLane’s desire to compete keeps at least one of these player’s off their major league path with another blocked for the usual "prospect fails to live up to expectations" occurrence.

It's NCAA Tourney time, and I created a Crawfish Boxes Tournament Pick'em league on Yahoo! for us to compete against each other and for the $1 million prize awarded for a perfect bracket. If you're interested in participating, shoot me an email, or just comment with your email address and I'll invite you to the league. The games begin on Thursday so early that morning is the latest you can join. Game on!

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

2010-03-15T02:27:40Z

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

Read what pitchers Jonathon Fixler has been catching in Florida.

All the baseball links that are fit to link...to

2010-03-14T11:00:21Z

Rob Carr - AP

Let's never take him for granted.

View full size photo »

I'll start off with a link from last Monday, but I think it bears mentioning first. Rob Neyer was able to corner Michael Lewis and ask him about the re-incarnation of the Moneyball movie. And, well,click the link to get the news on who may end up playing Paul DePodesta. In my opinion, it's a Super Bad choice! Or maybe not. Who knows. Although, like Neyer points out- Podesta played football and baseball at Harvard and Hill...didn't.

Another story from earlier in the week that we at TCB have sorta skipped over because it doesn't really concern the Astros, is Nomar Garciaparra signing a one day contract with the Boston Red Sox and then retiring. Now it's not like Noma hhhh is the only guy to have ever done this. There are a number of athletes that have done this. I'm not in a position to judge these people who do this, not by a long shot. Their achievements speak for themselves, and if they choose to do something like this- more power to them.

At the same time though, doesn't it cheapen the career paths of the Bagwells, the Biggios, the Gwynns, the Ripkens? All these players played on one team throughout their illustrious careers, because at least in part, that's probably how they wanted to be remembered. Nomar Garciaparra had many great seasons in Boston, but the fact remains that he played on three teams after he left Fenway. Everybody wants to go home again, but this re-writing of history doesn't jive with me all that well.

What nobody appears to be mentioning during this love fest renewed, is that Nomar wanted out of Boston back in 2004:

In short: Garciaparra didn’t want to be in Boston anymore, didn’t want to deal with the current ownership/management group that’s still in place now and didn’t want to endure the pressure of being a Red Sox player in a baseball-crazed city. He had to be dealt away from Fenway, and Sox GM Theo Epstein didn’t waste much time pulling the trigger.

Maybe Garciaparra felt that there was unfinished business in Boston, and that his retiring as a BoSox could close the final chapter of his career. It appears that like most of us, Nomar views the past with rose colored glasses, making the good times better than they really were and the low times not so bad after all. The human, rather than baseball player side of this is as intriguing as the baseball implications in my opinion.

Hopefully this is something that we as Astros fans will not have to worry about with Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt. As much as we may become frustrated with this team, it would be a shame to see Lance or Roy have to be traded in order to re-stock the farm system. The Red Sox faithful are arguably the most passionate in all of MLB and they take their team a little more seriously than Astros fans do. So it's not as if the Minute Maid Park denizens would be a driving force in pushing the pair out of town. Despite the pressure, or lack of it, for the 2010 season, let's hope that we can put forth a respectable team if for no other reason than to not waste the back end of Berkman and Oswalt's careers.

What a difference a year makes. Last season, Cecil Cooper proclaimed that the Astros were going to win 90 games in 2009. This season it's the Texas Rangers' President Nolan Ryan who is in the prediction making business- throwing down a 92 win gauntlet for his young club to meet. Pitching, hitting and defense are all solid on this team, and free agent additions Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, and Colby Lewis should help bolster a talented bunch coming off an 87 win season.

I know the talent is there, the stats tell me this. I know their farm system is stocked to the gills with an enviable amount of potential stars, the minor league watchers tell me this. Maybe it's their track record of bad luck and bad teams or perhaps my own unfounded opinions, but I wouldn't be surprised if this team won 92 game or lost 92.

Odd things seem to happen to the Rangers franchise- whether it's the drawn out sale of the team, the A-Rod signing gone wrong, the sudden explosion of minor league talent, nothing about this team seems linear. Things are either really, really good (hitting, Josh Hamilton's redemptive 2008, Feliz, Smoak, et al) or really, really bad (their pitching for so many seasons or Tom Hicks' financial decisions). I may be way off base here, but I won't be surprised if they run away with the AL West or end up in last place wondering how it all went wrong.

Here's something that only Farmstros and I would probably care about .

TCB Fantasy League Rules

2010-03-13T20:20:19Z

Here's a rundown on the rules we've set up for the fantasy league. Feel free to chime in on whether you like the rules or not, if you have suggestions on additions or if you just want to be snarky. I'm not picky about comments here.

Player universe: Mixed

Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UTIL, five SP, 2 RP - Made the decision to split up the outfielders to make it a little more realistic. Also should make draft strategy more intriguing.

Position limits: 2 DL players, 2 minor league players, 5 reserves

Waivers: Yes

Daily Roster moves

Scoring system: Head-to-Head, total points scored - This is like how fantasy football head-to-head leagues are scored. Each stat carries a certain number of points and the team with the most points at the end of the week gets a victory. In the case of a tie, the team with the most reserve points gets the W.

Point categories:

Hitters:

Singles - 1

Doubles - 2

Triples - 3

Home runs - 4

Walks (batters) - 1

HBP - 1

Runs - 1

RBIs - 1

Strikeouts -minus-.5

Stolen bases minus caught stealing - 1 (basically, this is successful stolen bases, awarding high percentage base stealers)

Fielding:

Caught stealing by catcher - 2

Double Plays Turned (for infielders only) - 1

Errors - minus-1

Outfield Assist - 2

Pitching:

Walks issued - minus-1

Earned runs - minus-1

Hits allowed - minus-1

HBP - minus-1

Holds - 3

Innings pitched - 3

Strikeouts - .5

Losses - minus-5

Wins - 7

Saves - 7

Playoffs: There are three divisions. All three division winners make the playoffs and there will be three wild card teams. With a 16-team league, that means six teams will make the playoffs. Top two seeded division winners will get byes.

Draft will be held on March 22nd at 7:30 Eastern, 6:30 Central time. It will be 21 rounds, with a 2 minute time limit on picks. If you don't make it in that time, the draft robot will pick the highest rated player on your board. We can adjust this time if you'd like.

Notice there are 23 roster spots and just 21 rounds. You can draft two minor leaguers or add them after the draft. They will not be part of your active roster, but add another layer of intrigue. Does someone draft Jason Heyward or Jason Castro in the middle rounds, stashing him in the minors until he makes his first appearance?

So, what do you think?

As always, if you're looking to set up a league and haven't yet, you can get 50 percent off of CBSSports.com's Commissioner League product. Follow this link to get the discount.

Who starts at 1st base if Berkman misses the start of the season?

2010-03-13T16:32:41Z

More photos » John Froschauer - AP

Chris Shelton hits an RBI single against the Texas Rangers. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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Lance Berkman may not miss opening day, which would mean that this post is pointless. Based on what I can glean, 2 - 5 weeks is an expected recovery time for his arthroscopic surgery. On the conservative side--and that seems like a good approach with your team's best hitter--Berkman could miss the opening series and perhaps even a couple of weeks of the season. And, by the way, Bernardo Fallas has a well done blog piece on Berkman's arthroscopic surgery; as it turns out, Fallas got to know a bit about knee surgeries from his days covering the soccer beat. For those who foresee the worst in Berkman knee surgery, take heart in this passage from Fallas' posting:

A traumatic event certainly could have caused Berkman to have them in the knee.

If this is the case, and given the injury was not serious, a safe bet would be that they are cartilaginous.

Another, decidedly less popular possibility is an arthritic knee, something Berkman has not (I repeat has not) been diagnosed with.

But this article isn't about focusing on Berkman's injury. I want to advocate putting Chris Shelton in the lineup if Berkman is out to begin the season. As noted in some previous posts, Geoff Blum is the most likely replacement for Berkman at first base. But I think Chris Shelton would be a very interesting candidate--even if it's just for a platoon with Blum at first base. I know we can come up with other ideas. The Chronicle's fanblog column suggested putting Lee at first base, so that another outfielder would get at bats. I have always been a fan of trying AAAA players, and I think Shelton is an underappreciated candidate. Since his best (and almost only) position is first base, a Berkman injury may be his only chance.

It's common to think that AAAA players are major league wash outs. But Shelton's major league history isn't all that bad. In 1,044 ML plate appearances, he has a 110 OPS+. And in his Andy Warhol five minutes of fame, when Shelton was being compared to the next Roger Maris, he posted a 131 OPS+ in 431 plate appearances for the 2005 Tigers. Shelton posted a .360 OBP that year, and has a .345 average OBP in the majors. Blum's OBP is...oh, let's not get into that.

Shelton's minor league career average OPS is .880. As far as platoon possibilities go, consider his minor league career OPS versus LHP: 1.015. Last year Shelton's AAA OPS was .891. His OBP was .389 and his SLG was .502. Against LHP last year, his SLG was .611 and his OPS was 1.076. It makes you wonder why Shelton hasn't gotten more chances. And I think the answer is that he is suited for 1st base and DH. But, if the Astros need a first baseman, even for a couple weeks, they have him.

Astros thank their lucky stars: Lance Berkman will begin his 2-4 week rehab today

2010-03-13T15:53:21Z

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Lance will be doing a lot of this kind of stuff over the next two to four weeks.

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I don't think I've ever in my life woke up and frantically checked Twitter, but I did this morning. I needed to know how Lance Berkman was. Skipping through the mass of emails, etc. on my Blackberry I quickly located the following and shouted with glee:

...David Crumbie removed loose cartiage debris and did NOT see any sign of ligament or meniscus damage. Lance will begin rehab today...

So let's all pause today and thank the god's of baseball/knee-innards for our good fortune. Without the good grace which they have bestowed upon us, we'd be looking at two weeks of Geoff Blum as our starting 1B. In a season which we're hoping that all the cards are dealt favorably to the Astros, that'd be like drawing a seven/two off-suit start.

Ok. I'm getting back to my NY vacation.

Poll: What's your level of confidence in the Astros?

2010-03-13T12:00:21Z

David J. Phillip - ASSOCIATED PRESS

He's got the whole (Astros) world, in his hands...

View full size photo »

As this post goes up, the Astros will have played a week's worth of spring training games. Some guys, like JR Towles, Matt Lindstrom, Jason Castro and Kaz Matsui, have impressed thus far. Others- Michael Bourn, Wandy, Chris Sampson, haven't fared as well in extremely limited action.

That's the thing about the spring: small sample sizes leads to every performance being placed under the microscope. This is just the nature of the beast for writers, bloggers and fans. We would all like to seize on certain topics and occurrences and draw out some sort of long lasting effect from them. Baseball though, does not lend itself to being judged in one at bat increments.

The same can really be said for organizations as a whole. Consider the Astros. Their 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts yielded two players, Tommy Manzella and Bud Norris, who figure to play prominent roles in this year's club. Needless to say that for a team that can't spend like one of the top tier clubs, this sort of production can and often times will lead to lean times on the big league level.

While other clubs have succeeded in planting seeds for the future, the Astros have struggled to replicate the sort of success they achieved from 1997-2005. Did the organization as a whole lose its way and forget how it came to the success it did? I doubt it. Perhaps Drayton McLane became so focused on "being a champion" at the major league level that he forgot the underlying reasons for his team's achievements? Or was his mistake in hiring a GM like Tim Purpura, whom McLane may not have had the confidence in that is necessary for a strong owner-GM relationship?

For whatever the reasons, and despite the fact that McLane is the common denominator, the Astros ship appears to have been righted in recent seasons. Now, I don't want this to necessarily be a post that unduly praises Ed Wade, because in all honesty, I don't know if he is the reason why the organization has been on the upward swing. What I do think is that it is fair to argue that while Wade may not ever turn our heads with an out of this world trade or free agent signing, he is at the very least competent. Now the Astros' goal shouldn't be competency, because that's surely not how the team rose to the heights of professional baseball. For the time being though, competency might be just what this organization needs.

So my poll question for this Saturday, is this: how confident are you in the Astros going forward? I don't just mean the Lance and Roy led guys with the stars on their hats. I mean:

From the major league club to the minor leaguers on the cusp of big league-dom, to the 18 year old in our Dominican Academy. Questions that beg to be asked: Will the 2008 and 2009 draft classes progress as much as we hope? Can the Astros discover this century's Johan Santana, Richard Hidalgo and Carlos Guillen in the Dominican Republic? As for our Astros, did Wade do a good enough job to add talent while simultaneously cutting payroll?
The front office. Drayton will be Drayton, and as long as he's our owner, we know it's less than likely that the Astros will pay over slot for top line draftees, and there will always be the temptation to think in the short term rather than into the future. Does Ed Wade have his ear so that these tendencies of McLane can be mitigated?
Scouting and player development wise: Bobby Heck is certainly a favorite around here, but the criticism is that he has been too conservative in his first two drafts with the Astros. As I alluded to earlier, will those '08 and '09 classes make Heck look like a genius? Further down the development totem pole there are a lot of issues to shore up for the Astros to begin to have a consistent pipeline of youngsters going up to the majors. Do you think the organization will invest sufficiently in those people that we will never see, and whose names we will likely never learn?

So look at this team with as objective an eye as you can and tell us:

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

2010-03-13T04:06:41Z

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

I was mowing my grass today (Spring is coming) when inspiration struck. Since the question is on everyone's mind, I figured I'd put it to music.

Jordan Lyles: A wild thought

2010-03-13T00:00:06Z

Here's a scenario for you--a flight of fancy, if you will: Let's say Jordan Lyles starts at AA and dominates in the first half of the year. Say our worst fears come true and one of Norris/Myers/Paulino is hit with a season-ending injury; we're still in the thick of contention.

We do have Moehler on standby, but with our best starting pitcher prospect dominating at AA, does the organization consider doing something radical and calling Jordan Lyles up, thinking that he may actually perform better than Moehler?

On the one hand, Ed Wade's front office has shown some willingness to call pitchers up directly from AA and throw them into the fire (like Wilton Lopez last year); on the other hand, Jordan Lyles is a very young and very important prospect, and you don't want to risk damaging his confidence by bringing him up before he's ready.

Jordan Lyles started 26 games at Class A Lexington last year, pitching 144 innings. He posted a 3.24 ERA and a 2.42 FIP while striking out 167 batters and walking only 38. He was ranked as our third best prospect by Baseball America in November of last year, and the ninety-first best prospect out of all MLB organizations.

Drafting the Astros Dynasty

2010-03-12T12:00:28Z

*Note: I know you are ready for the Friday Astros Minor Thoughts to return. Hold off for one more week. This story is about the minors and the draft, but it's bigger than the normal Thoughts. So you've got that going for you. Which is nice.

A throwaway comment by Evan the other day gave me a great idea for a story. The Astros glory years were from 1997-2005. That's when they made the playoffs six times in nine years. But, how were those teams built. Everyone harps on how bad the Astros farm system is now, but was it correspondingly good leading up to that dynastic period?

More importantly, how much did a well-perceived system help them win during that time frame? Was it sustained drafting excellence that carried the day, or was it one or two big scores? Obviously, our topics lately have veered into supporting Houston General Manager Ed Wade against all manner of outside opinions. Most observers are skeptical of the strength or effect the past two (pretty strong) drafts will have on the Astros going forward. So, I wanted to both see what caused the Astros success in the late 90's and if the pattern could be duplicated in 2010 and beyond.

In doing my research, I found 54 players who made the major leagues after being drafted by the Astros between 1992 and 2002. I stopped in 2002 because that seemed to be the last season where players would have a realistic chance of impacting the big league club by 2005.

54 players fit this criteria, both playing in the major leagues and being drafted from 1992 to 2002. Of this group, only 35 played even a single game with Houston. Fifteen were traded, including six who never appeared as Astros, including first round picks Ramon Castro and Mark Johnson. Both, incidentally, were traded to Florida.

For all intents and purposes, we can break up this dynasty into two sections. The first is 1997-2000, when the Astros made the playoffs three times in four years. Then, we have the 2001-2005 section, when the Astros won their first-ever playoff series and made the World Series in back-to-back years.

During that first section, six players who went on to play at least 20 games with the Astros made their debut. That number does include Morgan Ensberg, however, who didn't receive significant playing time until 2002. Of those players, Scott Elarton, Wade Miller, Lance Berkman and Julio Lugo made significant impacts. Russ Johnson, Tony McKnight, Keith Ginter, Ramon Castro and John Halama were all traded during this period.

That last sentence is important. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the Houston farm system wasn't always highly rated, but it was productive enough to swing big-time deals. Castro brought back Jay Powell, who was the primary setup man during the 1999 playoff run. Halama was part of the package that picked up Randy Johnson, while McKnight brought in closer Mike Williams, a key member of the bullpen in 2001.

What these years (and the previous drafts) lacked in impact, they made up for in trade value. Oddly enough, though, none of the drafted players the Astros gave up during this period went on to be a star. The closest is probably Ramon Castro, who played in 507 games at catcher. Of course, some of the international signees like Carlos Guillen and Freddy Garcia brought back more value for Seattle. On the balance, though, the Astros did very well by these trades.

In fact, these trades helped offset the lack of an impact player from the 1992-1995 drafts. The closest thing the Astros got during this time period was Billy Wagner. While Scott Elarton, Chris Holt and Julio Lugo all played big roles in short bursts, they didn't play for long. Elarton was a reliever for two seasons before having a great 2000 campaign. He promptly hurt his arm and was never the same for Houston. Holt was traded to Detroit after two okay seasons in the rotation for the second coming of Brad Ausmus. Lugo was a good player at short, but played on just one playoff team (2001) before being cut.

The real core of the later Astros teams were formed in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 drafts. Those three saw Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Tim Redding, Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge. Those three drafts also produced the aforementioned Mark Johnson, who was integral to the Moises Alou trade, Ginter (traded for Mark Loretta) and John Buck, who was one of the keys to the Carlos Beltran deal in 2004.

Of the Astros who played in over 100 games, only Oswalt, Berkman and Ensberg posted double-digit wins from 2002 through 2005. While Miller's best seasons may have scored highly on the WAR list, they didn't track that particular stat until 2002. Jason Lane also was high on this list, but had pitiful WAR numbers and never really had that one great season. Ensberg, on the other hand, posted more than five wins twice and carried the 2005 team until his hand injury.

There were certainly players drafted in the meantime that contributed. Lane, Chris Burke, Chad Qualls and even a guy like Kirk Saarloos had their roles. What was lacking in their performance was an impact on the Astros playoff chances. It's also clear that the Astros never really set out to build through the draft in this period. They lucked into some late round pitchers like Miller and Oswalt. They also made astute trades to supplement the core of the team built during the late 80's (Biggio. Gonzo, Harnish, Finley, Bagwell). That's how the Astros won in the first section, right down to the Alou, Johnson and Powell trades.

On the other hand, as the calendar flipped to the 21st century, the Astros relied more on homegrown players drafted under Hunsicker. While he did make big acquisitions (Kent, Clemens, Beltran, Pettitte), the real thing that hurt the Astros was the perception that they didn't have enough players to make trades. By going through free agency to sign guys like Kent and Pettitte, the Astros lost valuable draft picks. This led to the idea that the system was crummy and meant that they couldn't make impact trades any more. Look at the guys the Astros traded away again. Where are the serviceable players? Hunsicker did all that with smoke and mirrors.

The other positive thing to take away from this study is that Ed Wade and Bobby Heck could be setting the Astros up for big-time succcess again with this draft. A third straight impact-type draft could set up a situation where the Astros are contenders again and very soon. Like by 2014 soon. That may seem like a long time, because it is. I'd still rather another period of sustained success like we saw back then than what Houston looks like now.

SBNation Previews the Astros

2010-03-11T21:46:02Z

SBNation Previews the Astros

Instead of worrying about Berkman's knee, how about reading what Evan, Stephen and I wrote about the Astros in 2010.

The Crawfish Boxes

TCB Fantasy League Draft: Who Goes First?

ST Game No. 13: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

Astros Spring Notebook

Tommy Manzella vs. Brendan Ryan

Astros on MLB Network's 30 in 30

ST Games No. 11 & 12: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox and at New York Yankees

Does Denard Span's new contract with Minnesota affect Hunter Pence and the Astros?

TCB Players of the Week and Astros Stock Watch

Morgan Ensberg tells us something we didn't know about that Pujols HR off Lidge

Morgan Ensberg tells us something we didn't know about that Pujols HR off Lidge

Who's your Astros closer, A preview worth noting and the Crawfish Boxes NCAA Bracket Challenge

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

THE FIXLER FILES: Post #2

All the baseball links that are fit to link...to

TCB Fantasy League Rules

Point categories:

Who starts at 1st base if Berkman misses the start of the season?

Astros thank their lucky stars: Lance Berkman will begin his 2-4 week rehab today

Poll: What's your level of confidence in the Astros?

On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you in the Houston Astros organization going forward?

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

When Will Castro be an Astro? The Song

Jordan Lyles: A wild thought

Drafting the Astros Dynasty

SBNation Previews the Astros

SBNation Previews the Astros