The Crimson Quarry

Indiana Hoosiers and the Oversign: Tom Crean Plays the Numbers Game

2012-05-17T19:51:59Z

A lot of people, myself included seem to have some concerns about the potential oversigning of recruits from year to year. Indiana and Tom Crean are already in a bit of a pickle for the 2012 season with one more scholarship player than is allotted by the NCAA. Sometime between now and the start of school in September a player is either going to have to transfer, go to prep school, or pay his own way. Now some have issues with that scenario in and of itself and their concerns are justifiable. Even in this situation Tom Crean has accepted and is actively looking to add another would-be oversign to the 2013 class. Should Hoosiers fans be concerned that ethics will come into play?

This post will take a look at what the average college basketball program experiences year in and year out and try and decide what exactly should everyone expect. Will the turnover rates work out where this isn’t a big deal? Or is Tom Crean and company on pace for an ethical conundrum that could put the price of winning above the collective fan base’s conscience?

Indiana, with the accepted committal of Stanford Robinson and the eventual redshirt of Mo Creek will be oversigned by 2 athletes this coming November. Meanwhile, the staff is moving on as usual and looking to add at least one more big man to the 2013 mix and make it another 5 man class and a 3 man oversign. How will Indiana ever be able to have enough turnover to get everyone a roster spot in 2013? The answer, Tom Crean is thinking more like an economist and less like a basketball coach. The national averages and the current roster makeup tell us this is a pretty smart move to oversign by three.

The NCAA governing body does not allow collegiate programs to hand out multi-year scholarships. Every scholarship awarded to an athlete in every sport is a one year contract that is renewed on an annual basis. This means that there is naturally a lot of volatility within the scholarship athlete community and their presence on a specific campus. At the end of an academic year a coach can remove a player from scholarship for any reason. This leads to a pretty high turnover rate in college basketball specifically.

Turnover rates in basketball are pretty high from standard reasons alone. The national average shows that 30% of a college basketball team’s roster does not return the following season. That means of the 13 scholarship athletes on a team in any given year, four (rounded up from 3.9) will not be returning the next season. Some of that attrition logically falls to natural occurrences like graduation and going pro, but it doesn’t explain for all of it.

In 2009 it was found by the National College Players Association, that among NCAA tournament bound teams in 2008 there was an unexplained roster of 22%. When we say unexplained we mean players that left a program for any other reason other than graduation or turning professional. Of 775 available returnees from 2008 tourney teams, 169 left their programs for unknown reasons. What does this tell us? In any given season a team is going to lose a chunk of its roster to unknown reasons.

This is one of the reasons that the NCAA allows an over sign in the first place. Rather than having a team with open scholarships every year (which the numbers say is likely to happen) they would prefer that the schools guard against it and fill their limit from year to year. The natural attrition added to the unpredictable attrition means teams are more than likely to need the oversign to guarantee a full squad of 13 recruited players.

Now how does all of this apply to Tom Crean and the Indiana Hoosiers? Well they’re currently in a unique situation when it comes to the national average and their specific scenario. Indiana will have 3 players leaving the program for certain next year. Derek Elston, Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford will all exhaust their eligibility. Cody Zeller will likely be a top 3 draft pick and reportedly is halfway to his degree after one season. It is pretty safe to assume that he will be gone as well. That’s your national average of four players right there and that is with the normal attrition. The numbers say that Indiana is likely to lose at least one more player from the remaining ten on the roster.

Of those ten remaining players, Victor Oladipo will reportedly be graduating after three years, Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Perea will join Oladipo in the pro potential category as well. None of the four are currently likely to go pro as things currently stand, but all four are only one "proving" season away from doing just that. Oladipo has to prove he can consistently hit a jump shot. Ferrell must prove that his speed and vision trump his size disadvantage. Hollowell must show that he can consistently do in a full year of college what he did from February on in his senior year of high school. And Hanner Perea must prove he is more than freak athleticism. If any of these four guys show those characteristics in a deep tournament run, they are also likely good as gone.

In the end, Tom Crean is likely doing the right thing from a business sense. He’s locking up really good players while Indiana is the sexy pick. History and math tells us that roster attrition will likely be 5 or so players and Crean is safeguarding the program’s short term future by recruiting this many kids. The strategy isn’t without its gambles though. Crean did the same thing this season and with Watford and Zeller choosing to return the program is in a tight corner. The strategy of playing the numbers over common sense is (like most times) the right strategy, but it is also one that will get you picked apart if you’re wrong. Tom Crean and Indiana basketball better hope they’re right and the numbers work out, because the backlash could be fierce.

2013 SG Stanford Robinson Commits to the Hoosiers

2012-05-17T03:10:54Z

Well that didn't take long. About an hour and a half ago we learned that Stanford Robinson verbally committed to play for the Hoosiers. He is now the fourth commit for the 2013 class and the third commit for Tom Crean from the Washington D.C. area. Crean has started to establish quite a pipeline from a region of the country that I would place easily in the top ten and closer to the top five in basketball talent production.

Robinson will be a key asset and the heir apparent to Victor Oladipo whether he goes pro this next year or waits to finish his senior year with Indiana. Either way, Stanford Robinson will be waiting in the wings to prove he has what it takes to continue the Hoosiers trend at high level SG production. The addition of Robinson also pushes Indiana into a top 5 recruiting class to date for 2013 and an argument could be had for top 3.

Robinson is certainly a great get and his enthusiasm for the program was pretty immediate. He was quoted as stating he now goes from recruit to recruiter which is great news for anyone wanting us to land his teammate BeeJay Anya. Robinson enthusiasm extends beyond recruiting as he plans to do something special for the Hoosiers when he arrives. Already buying into the banner talk, he certainly is playing to the fan base by telling Jeff Rabjohns of Rivals.com, "I expect us to hang banners. As long as we're all still there together, all I expect is for banners to be hung."

Us too Stanford, us too. Until then, welcome to the fold young man and we hope that the Hoosiers as fans can be everything you expect of us. Here's to a very entertaining and national championshipy future.

Crimson and Gold Cup Final: Indiana 11.5 Purdue 7.5

2012-05-15T15:04:04Z

Indiana pushes the series to 5-1-2 over the last 8 years.Indiana has established a very solid record. In that eight year span, Indiana has won the head to head sports competitions 87 to 71. Good enough for a .550 winning percentage. So… yay!

Hoosier Recruits to Watch For: Stanford Robinson

2012-05-15T14:33:00Z

After a visit on Monday #88 ranked Rivals recruit for the 2013 class Stanford Robinson is our most recent recruit to watch. Robinson, an incoming senior hailing from of Fairfax, Virginia (renowned basketball school, Paul VI High School), is just another example of Crean’s increased national recruiting strategy. Stanford plays on AAU Team Takeover with fellow IU target BeeJay Anya. Robinson and Anya are probably the two remaining targets of what looks to be another 5 man class for 2013. If Tom Crean can land one of them he will continue the trend of a DC area kid coming to Indiana to play basketball.

The lefty has a decent stroke from range, but the biggest strength to his game is competitiveness. He’s a 6’4" combo guard that probably trends more to a SG at the college level. I actually see a lot of Victor Oladipo in him, in that his shot is good when he takes his time but his biggest strength is using his speed to slash into the lane. Add in Robinson’s length and he has the potential to truly wreak on the defensive end much like Oladipo. Stanford has great athleticism that could make him an all-conference defender.

When it comes to weaknesses Robinson hides them pretty well. In fact, the biggest weakness to his game is probably being a little too unselfish. He needs to take a step forward in aggression according to several reports from scouting agencies. He has a large body and he’s good at using it to get into the lane, he just needs to do it more frequently. I think this lack of aggression is why you see such a variance on his national ranking. He’s 88 according to Rivals, 46 from ESPN and 52 for Scout. His ceiling is high, I just believe that Rivals is wanting to see more.

When it comes to his recruitment, Eric Bossi of Rivals has reported that he’s looking to make a decision in the next 2-3 weeks. I think that puts Indiana in a very solid position to potentially land Mr. Robinson. After Robinson’s visit on Monday, BeeJay Anya tweeted out this little gem.

"@Showmelovestan (Stanford Robinson) just told me how much fun he had at Indiana lol sounded like he was in love".

That sounds like a very good sign for where Indiana stands. Add in the fact that newly hired assistant coach Kenny Johnson originally hails from the region and Indiana fans should feel pretty good about their prospects.

As for now, it is just a waiting game to see where Robinson comes out in the next few weeks. Indiana’s biggest competitors seem to be Villanova and NC State. We’re just going to have to sit back and wait to see where Robinson elects to play his college career. He’d be a very big addition to the squad if he does choose Indiana. The Hoosiers could use an heir apparent to Oladipo's play. Especially if he finds his jump shot over the summer, there's a pretty good chance that Vic has the option to step to the League a year early. If that is going to happen then landing a player like Robinson is a near must to transition from depth to depth and not have a lull in years.

Indiana to host UNC in Big Ten-ACC Challenge.

2012-05-14T23:37:13Z

ESPN announced the Big Ten-ACC Challenge pairings today, and as expected, IU is part of an elite matchup. The North Carolina Tarheels will visit Bloomington on November 27. UNC last came to Assembly Hall on December 1, 2004, when Sean May led the Tarheels to a 70-63 victory in his hometown. The 2004 game was, of course, part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, and this year's game will be the third Big Ten-ACC meeting between IU and UNC, and the road team has won each meeting. In November 2001, IU won 79-66 in Chapel Hill. Another interesting factoid, at least to me: the winner of the previous two BT/ACC meetings between the schools each made a deep tournament run. UNC won the 04-2005 title, and IU advanced to the NCAA championship game in 2001-02. IU leads the overall series 7-5.

This is an important boost to IU's schedule because of the end of the Kentucky series. Unfortunately, recent rumors have suggested that IU will not be replacing UK with an elite opponent. While IU's schedule will be respectable, with Georgetown and/or UCLA, UNC, and Butler, I still would like to see another major non-conference matchups. We'll see what happens.

Is Tom Crean Making a Huge Recruiting Mistake?

2012-05-10T15:06:47Z

We can find little things to criticize Tom Crean on plenty but recruiting isn’t one of them. He has thrown together fantastic recruiting classes year in and year out even without putting one of the most competitive products onto the court until last season. But is his recruiting tactics completely bulletproof like many would have you believe?

With the recent success of the program, the nearly instantaneous high reputation of Indiana basketball (once again) and the light hearted yet determined personality of the team, Indiana can now spread its wings a little and show it can truly fly. That means that Coach Crean and staff are opening up their recruiting focus from just the borders. Previously, Crean and company kept a heavy focus on getting the best of the best from the state of Indiana and it has served them well. Now they are trying to get the best of the best of the entire nation. Is this a mistake?

IU has always been a Hoosier dominated ball club. Heck, this next season there will only be 5 guys of the 14 not from the state of Indiana. That is a bed rock that I take a lot of pride in as a fan and it sends a message to high school kids all across the state. If you want to play college basketball at a high level, you are most welcome to stay home and help us compete for glory with the best of your AAU friends. With the recent recruiting classes and the upcoming ones in 2014 and 2015, you can make an Indiana all-star team out of the high school players and be a nationally competitive team pretty easily. What has me somewhat concerned is that IU appears to be straying from that model.

Crean is reaching out long distances to woo kids like BeeJay Anya and Stanford Robinson from Maryland, Marcus Lee from California and Sam Singer from Florida. The recent coaching hire of Kenny Johnson was partially for the purpose of taking our medium sized influence in the Beltway and blowing it up into a very large presence. This would sound like a good thing in the long run of things. Take the talent wherever it is from. That is certainly what North Carolina and Duke have done and they’re working for a national championship year in and year out, but at what cost?

NC State just pulled in the #4 rated class in the nation for 2012. Where did their three big recruits come from? The back yard. NC State was able to pull in a better class than North Carolina and Duke, because both schools missed on their national targets and forgot about their own back yard. Now NC State is a real competitor and probably the favorite to win the conference next year after being nobodies for the recent past. I do not want that to happen in Indiana. The state of Indiana is a much hotter bed for talent annually than North Carolina and if we neglect our own back yard and miss on a few national targets we’re in a world of pain because Purdue and Michigan will be breathing down our necks with Indiana kids.

Now some would say this might be alarmist more than anything. Crean has the ability to go national and the 2013 class in Indiana is good but not as strong as Indiana traditionally is. Add in that we need to add either a strong PG or a big man and Crean is going to have to look elsewhere. Those positions are not very strong in the 2013 class and the 2014 class for big men seems to be late bloomers. Why not go out and use your name to land already developed more accomplished big men? It is definitely a good reason to go national. Especially since we already have very strong players committed in those classes. If Indiana misses on national recruits so what, they are already strong classes as they stand.

My concerns start in 2015 and beyond. That is three years away but as Indiana and Crean have shown, getting into the recruits early in their careers certainly pays off in the long run. Both foundation 2014 players committed before they ever played a high school game and assuming Blackmon’s ACL heals up well, they’re the cornerstones for another top 5 class. 2015 looks to be another solid state of Indiana class and I would hate for Crean to miss out because he became super ambitious on the recruiting trail.

I’m not certain to this point if he is making a big mistake or just using national momentum to get the sand guys to fill between the rocks. There is no cause for too much concern quite yet, but keep an eye on the 2015 class. If Crean neglects them or falls behind in favor of more national players, it could be a sign of something soon to come. Don’t neglect the pretty girl next door because you think you can land a supermodel.

Is Matt Roth being wronged?

2012-05-07T16:51:27Z

A sure sign of IU's resurgence on the basketball court is that covering IU basketball is once again a twelve month proposition. Today's Indianapolis Star includes a straight news article about Matt Roth. Roth, as all IU fans will recall, has been at IU for four years, participating in Senior Night (see above photo), earning his bachelor's degree in 2011, and finishing off a master's degree this year. Although Roth saw game action in all four of the seasons that he has spent at IU, in 2009-10, his sophomore year, Roth played in only two games before a foot injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. Roth has applied for and has received a medical redshirt year for that season, so he has one remaining year of eligibility. The above-linked article makes clear what hadn't been entirely apparent before: Matt Roth really wants to play for IU next year.

What prevents that, of course, is that IU does not have a scholarship for Roth. In fact, as has been discussed here before, IU already is oversigned by one, which means that either one of IU's five signed incoming freshmen will not enroll, someone will transfer, or someone will pay his own way (as to the last option, most of the speculation has centered on Jordan Hulls and Derek Elston--both are Indiana residents and both graduated this past weekend, meaning that either could enroll in a light grad school load and pay in-state prices). Adding Roth to the equation creates even more of a logjam. Yet, in an accompanying blog post that appeared today, Terry Hutchens argues that Roth is being wronged. Here is the gist of the post:

But Roth shouldn’t even be a part of that discussion. He should have his scholarship and get a chance to play. Tom Crean and his staff should have to figure the other stuff out with Roth not included in the conversation. If Roth wants to play one more season — and he does — he has earned that opportunity. I had someone ask me the other day a very simple question: Do you ever remember a scholarship basketball player at Indiana, in good standing with the program and the university, who had one year of eligibility remaining but wasn’t brought back for that final year? I could think of no one.

First, and most comically, this is Terry Hutchens, who for most of his time as the Star's IU beat writer has been very much a company man. This has been, at varying times, much to the consternation of IU fans and IU foes. For IU fans, Hutch distinguished himselfy during that last, ugly years of the Mike Davis era, when Hutchens made every excuse in the book for an obviously over-his-head coach. Now, with the IU basketball program in its best condition in decades, is when Hutch decides to make his stand. Beautiful.

Still, I think this does raise the issue of what a basketball player is getting when he signs a letter of intent with IU or any other university. As well all know, as a technical matter athletic scholarships are one-year renewable grants. Tom Crean or any other coach could cut any player loose for any reason after any season. Typically, that doesn't happen, although Crean and most other coaches may occasionally have frank conversations with players about their future prospects for playing time, and sometimes those talks may be designed to encourage players to look elsewhere. I tend to think that regardless of productivity on the court, a player who does the work that is expected of him in the classroom, in practice, in offseason conditioning, and in the community and on campus, should be allowed to continue until he earns a degree regardless of whether he contributes much. Even if a coach tells a player that he isn't going to be part of the rotation, I think that if a player wants to stay and meets the above criteria, he should be allowed to stay. Particularly given the constraints on transferring per NCAA rules, I don't like the idea of yanking scholarships.

Of course, none of that has much to do with Matt Roth. Roth has been at IU for four years. He played in each of his four seasons. He will leave IU with at least two degrees. It's tough for me to see where Roth has been wronged or exploited. Hutchens seems to argue that any player who starts at IU should be allowed to fulfill every year of his eligibility at IU. Actually, Hutchens doesn't really argue it. He simply presumes it. And my question is, why? Do the NCAA rules require it? No. To the contrary, NCAA rules leave players quite exposed to the whims of coaches. Did IU or Tom Crean promise it? I think that's the key question. All along, Roth has acted as if he knew that his IU career likely would not extend beyond 2011-12. He earned his bachelor's degree at the end of year three and finished a master's degree by the end of his fourth year. If Roth were taking his sweet time to earn a bachelor's degree, and had the rug pulled out from under him without any means to finish his degree, that would be bad. But if Tom Crean has been straight with him and has given him ample time in which to plan for the inevitable, then what's the problem?

I understand that neither of Roth's options are particularly attractive to him. If he wants to play at IU, then Roth, who is from Illinois, has to pay his way as at the higher, non-resident tuition rate. I'm sure that taking out student loans and/or digging into his parents' savings to take a few classes for a degree that he likely won't finish probably doesn't sound all that great. On the other hand, Roth could be the beneficiary of one of the NCAA's best rules: he has the right to transfer without penalty to a school where he can play his final year without sitting out a year. It's a great rule and an excellent opportunity, but Roth, understandably, having tasted success as an Indiana Hoosier, doesn't want to wear any other uniform.

I hope none of this sounds callous toward Matt Roth. As a member of IU's turnaround senior class, he will forever hold an important place in IU lore. He's worked very hard, improved from year-to-year, and has always been one of the most accurate shooters I have seen in an IU uniform. He has given much to IU. But he's also received much: two degrees, and four years playing for one of the most tradition-rich programs in college basketball. He doesn't appear to have been blindsided by his current reality. Given all of the abuses and exploitation that occur in college basketball, this situation doesn't rate at all.

Finally, my biggest gripe with the Hutchens piece is his petulant claim about a scholarship for Roth: "It’s what Indiana needs to find a way to do." Well, how, exactly? Currently, IU has 14 players on board for 2012-13 and 13 scholarships. Adding Roth to the mix gives IU 15 players for 13 rides. I don't think it's enough for the IU beat writer with the state's most widely read newspaper to say IU needs to do something. He needs to explain how it can happen. Of the possibly 15 players in the mix for next year, three of them (Roth, Hulls, and Elston) have degrees. Who should make room for Roth? Should Hulls or Elston be pushed aside? I doubt Hutchens would accept that for the same reason that he doesn't think Roth should be out. Should someone at the end of the bench be nudged onto the transfer list? In that case, someone with no IU degrees would be pushed aside in favor of someone with two IU degrees. Should IU prevent one or more of the freshmen from enrolling? That raises the same issue as the last category. This is, of course, one of the reasons that oversigning makes some of us queasy, but I'm much more angst-ridden about whoever player #14 might be than I am about Roth.

Again, thank you, Matt Roth, for all you have done for IU. But as long as Tom Crean has been honest with Roth far enough in the future to allow him to plan, I have zero problem with this situation, and I don't understand why it is suddenly front page news.

Ridiculously early CBB top 25 for 2012-2013

2012-05-04T15:54:06Z

The commentary regarding the cancellation of the Kentucky game and replacing it with another "top 5" team got me thinking about who is actually going to be a top 5 team next season. So, this seems as good a time as any to post an early look at college basketball's top 25 next season. One quick aside about the Kentucky situation: in my humble opinion, Kentucky wanted to switch the game locations to avoid the very real possibility losing to Indiana in Lexington next season. They've got a nice winning streak going there, and right after the NCAA tourney game I saw a couple of comments among UK fans about ending the home-and-home for that reason - not for all the other reasons listed. And that was before their top six players all jumped ship. The fact that Coach Cal has come out and said "We'd play two games in Indiana" just supports my thinking. Of course, I've not seen this mentioned anywhere else, so maybe I'm way off base.

Top 25 for next season below the jump!

1. Indiana (27-9): If at this point, I wasn’t going to pick IU at #1, I should just hand in my alumni pin right now. The Hoosiers should have the top offense in the nation, and if the defense continues its slow but consistent improvement, that should be enough outgun the rest of the field to be the favored team in the NCAA tournament.
2. Louisville (30-10): Louisville’s the primary threat, in my mind, to the Hoosiers’ chances. Losing Chris Smith and Kyle Kuric hurts, but they get a couple of guys off of redshirt years, including GMU transfer Luke Hancock, who should start on the wing. Lanky center Dieng and robust forward Chase Benahan shut down the lane as well as anyone. Hancock’s the only decent outside shooter on the roster, though, and as good as the defense was last season, the offense was pretty mediocre.
3. UCLA (19-14): OK, this is risky. But Ben howland has succeeded before, and there's a lot of talent. The Wear twins produced last season, Tyler Lamb is a capable wing, and Shabazz Muhammad looks like the real deal. There’s some depth, but I’m most concerned with the position of point. Can Larry Drew redeem himself from a bad exit at UNC? Enigmatic talent Josh Smith and blue-chipper frosh Ryan Anderson may well come off the bench. If Howland can’t blend this talent, he may not be at Westwood much longer.
4. Kentucky (38-2): The Wildcats had a great season. And although they lost their top 6 players, they’ve got several great recruits (notably, Nerlens Noel) who will start next to NCSU transfer Ryan Harrow and returning reserve Kyle Wiltjer. But this isn’t the title-threat level of talent that we’ve been accustomed to seeing in Lexington. Still, Calipari gets his freshmen up to speed on playing defense very quickly, so the Wildcats will still win a bunch of games. I probably won't pick them actually getting to Atlanta, but Calipari deserves some respect at this early point.
5. Michigan (24-10): Legit final four team? Sure, maybe. But the Wolverines lost essentially three starters, who happened to also be some of their best shooters. Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jordan Morgan return, alongside blue-chippers Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary. Reserve forward/center Jon Horford also returns from injury. Can the available pieces blend with Beilien’s system? I’m not betting against them just yet, but I’m also not putting money on them getting to the Final Four.
6. Michigan State (29-8): This is an end of the year ranking, as I don’t think Branden Dawson will be at any kind of decent production level until then. But Gary Harris should produce instantly on the wing, Keith Appling can fill it up as a combo point, and Derrick Nix/Adriean Payne are the toughest center duo in college basketball. Keep an eye on frosh Matt Costello and Kenny Kaminsky, if they aren’t ready for minutes quickly, Izzo might have problems.
7. Creighton (29-6); Doug McDermott returns, and as such, the Blue Jays are nationally relevant. The Blue Jays lose starting point Antoine Young, but return essentially everyone else. Look for a balanced team featuring one of the great talents in college - think Gonzaga with Adam Morrison. Creighton in 2013 won’t be that flashy, but might have more staying power.
8. Ohio State (31-8): I’m starting to think Thad Matta isn’t the best post-season coach. He just keeps losing narrowly with really good teams. That said, I suppose it took Jimmy Boeheim a while to win it all, and once he did, the complaints sure dwindled. I don’t think the Buckeyes fall that far despite the loss of Sully & Buford. Matta tends to hide some of his talent (look at what Lenzelle Smith did with some PT this year) on the bench, and this OSU team will likely be a defensive terror. Outside shooting may keep them from going too far in the NCAA’s, tho.
9. Duke (27-7): Oh, you think this is overrating them? Wait until the Blue Devils win enough games in pre-conference to spend all season at the #1/#2 spots. That’ll be over-rated. For right now, I do actually think most pre-season chatter is under-rating them a bit and over-rating the loss of Austin Rivers. Coach K keeps his guys playing well on defense, always, and there's actually quite a lot of veteran experience on hand here.
10. Florida (26-11): Balance, talent, experience. Even without Bradley Beal, this will be a tough team. They’d be a top-5 team if Erving Walker was returning, but the Gators will have to make do with Patric Young, Erik Murphy, Kenny Boynton, and Mike Rosario. There's a good recruiting class as well, headlined by point Braxton Ogbueze.
11. St. Louis (26-8): Sure, forward Brian Conklin is gone, but Rick Majerus returns everyone else from a team that beat Memphis and put a scare in Michigan State. SLU has size, experience, and is starting to make enough of a name in Atlantic-10 that they could actually get the seeding where they could play their way into the Sweet 16.
12. North Carolina State (24-13): CJ Leslie returns, and the Wolfpack actually have enough to make a run for the ACC title next season. I don’t think it happens yet, but this a dangerous club. Mark Gottfried brings in several freshman who should earn big minutes next to Scott Wood and Lorenzo Brown, as wings Rodney Purvis and TJ Warren could probably start for most D-I programs.
13. Ohio (29-8): Coach John Groce may have some pangs of regret next March when he watches his former Bobcats roll into the postseason. Point DJ Cooper has seen postseason success a few times, and won’t let his team get off track, which returns the entire playing rotation from last year’s sweet 16 team that came thisclose to upsetting UNC before falling in overtime.
14. Virginia Commonwealth (29-7): Besides Bradford Burgess, everyone’s back from a team that nearly beat IU in the second round. However, there’s still a lot of firepower here, and Bradford’s kid brother Jordan Burgess arrives, and looks good enough to start. Furthermore, I’m pretty sure that Shaka Smart knew he had something special to look forward to this year in Virginia, or he would’ve jumped to Illinois. Don’t sleep on these guys!
15. Texas (20-14): I still believe that Rick Barnes can coach, and he’s got one of the best recruiting classes in the nation. Prince Ibeh and Cameron Ridley should supply some power in the paint to give Myck Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan the support they need to continue the Longhorns rise back to prominence. Look for a big jump despite the loss of J’Covan Brown to the NBA, but this roster is going to be very young... there’ll be some bumps.
16. Gonzaga (26-7): center Robert Sacre is gone, but with Sam Dower ready to take over in the paint, and Elijah Harris returning, Mark Few’s club may finally live up to expectations in the postseason. You’ve probably heard about David Stockton’s solid play, but Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell were a great freshmen backcourt last season.
17. Memphis (26-9): Yes, Josh Pastner has gotten talent here, and Ken Pomeroy’s laptop loved the Tigers’ performance. But how far does it get against non-C-USA teams? There's a couple of decent recruits coming in to replace a couple of lost starters, but the real questions here are chemistry and discipline, i.e. is the young talent going to actually mature?
18. Wisconsin (26-10): The Badgers look fearsome in the Big Ten, but consistently don’t go very far in the NCAA’s. Sure, Bo Ryan’s 16-11 record in the NCAA tourney at Wisconsin is nothing to sneeze at, but the one-point loss against a weakened Syracuse team was emblematic of Ryan’s postseasons. Key opportunities just seem to get wasted. The Badgers return everyone but Jordan Taylor & Rob Wilson, and Sam Dekker looks like an instant-impact recruit (he’s rated above than Glenn Robinson III, for example), but I don’t expect them to get far at the end of the year, again.
19. UNLV (26-9): Although Chace Stanback moves on, there’s enough returning here to feel good about ranking, namely Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall. Keep an eye on the development of big man Carlos Lopez, and frosh wing Katin Reinhardt looks like he will be exactly the offensive spark that to give the Rebels a real boost. Transfers Khem Birch and Bryce Jones, if they decide to be team players, could boost this club up even higher!
20. Kansas (32-7):The national runner-ups lose a lot, but Bill Self teams don’t disappoint. However, I do think expectations are a little high for a team that loses Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor. Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey will be the new stars, and Self brought in a good recruiting class, but I think next season is a bit of a rebuilding season.
21. Notre Dame (22-12): If the Irish get Scott Martin back for a 6th year, and return almost everyone else, and add in the solid recruiting class, they should be the competition for Louisville for the Big East crown. However, ND has succeeded as a grind-it-out underdog. Not sure how they successfully shift their system with feature more talent, but the potential is there. Former MSU center Garrick Sherman also becomes eligible, but imagine if Tim Abromaitis had gotten another year? They’d have to be projected at a top-5 level.
22. Missouri (30-5): losing your top three guys is never great, but Frank Haith got a boatload of quality transfers, and returns medical redshirt forward Laurence Bowers. I don’t trust the depth here, but a solid backcourt of Michael Dixon and Phil Pressey should facilitate the scoring of Bowers, UConn transfer Alex Oriakhi, Auburn transfer Earnest Ross, and Pepperdine transfer Keion Bell. Are the enough basketballs to keep all of these guys happy?
23. Marquette (27-8): Losing Jae Crowder will really put the Golden Eagles back a step. But even with the graduation of Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, there’s enough talent left here that I’ll stop underestimating Buzz Williams. Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, and Devante Gardner should keep the ship steady, and freshman Steve Taylor is exactly the kind of combo forward that has always blown up (in a good way) at Marquette. Also, center Chris Otule is scheduled to return, which should alleviate the loss of Crowder's defensive play-making.
24. North Carolina (32-6): I thought the Tarheels were a good bet to win the championship last year. And lsing all those guys to the NBA hurts, sure. Roy Williams still will have enough to keep UNC in the national picture, though. They’ve got a couple of decent guards coming off injuries in Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald, and James McAdoo should help hold down the paint. Frosh Marcus Paige & Brice Johnson may well just step right into the starting line-up, and Reggie Bullock might be your next star here.
25. San Diego State (26-8): I thought Steve Fisher took the job in San Diego, because, hey, what a great place to kick up your feet and wind down a tumultuous career. No, Steve has fashioned a menace in southern California, and he has a ton of weapons back for next season. Jamal Franklin, James Rahon, Chase Tapley, and Xavier Thames can make it rain. They’ll make noise, but I’d feel better about putting them if skinny 6-8 DeShawn Stephens can prove that he can play center consistently.

Just outside: St. Mary's College, Miami (Fl), Drexel, Arizona, Syracuse, and Minnesota