Defending Big D

2012 NHL Draft: Dissecting The Dallas Stars Draft History, Part 1

2012-05-16T19:30:18Z

Part 1: The Dangers of Playing the Game of Trades

When we started to plan out the coverage of the upcoming NHL Draft, an interesting question came up regarding the overall success of the Dallas Stars drafts the past decade or so -- especially comparing Joe Nieuwendyk's drafts with Doug Armstrong's. The general feeling has been that Armstrong failed to draft successfully, with the Dallas Stars currently paying the price for years of draft day failures.

Huw came to the conclusion that overall, the Stars' drafts under Armstrong should not be considering "failures," because the Stars were able to find some gems that are very important to the current team. It was a very interesting exercise and while I thought that Huw presented a very good argument, I still maintain that the drafting while Armstrong was GM was decidedly poor.

This opinion is based upon the overall draft history of the Stars since 2002, not just regarding the players that were actually drafted. Huw was focused solely on the players that were actually drafted and after the conversation that stemmed from that post, I thought it would be prudent to take a look not just at the players drafted but the overall approach by the Stars during the draft over that time.

I believe that it's important to look at history to help make decisions about the future. While I don't think that history shows us exactly what is going to happen with any amount of certainty, it allows us to at least address the mistakes and successes that led the present we are currently enjoying. I think this is important in all areas of life and it's especially important in sports.

In Part 1, we're going to kick off this historical breakdown to look at the strategy of the Dallas Stars regarding draft picks as assets in trades and how this has negatively affected the franchise since 2002...

Doug Armstrong took over as the General Manager for the Dallas in January of 2002 and held that position until the fall of 2007, when he was fired by Tom Hicks in favor of the tandem of Brett Hull and Les Jackson. During this time the Stars went 210-109-35-23, missed the postseason in 2002 and competed for the Western Conference championship in 2008, mainly with the team he constructed -- with the addition of Brad Richards, of course.

Since 2008, the Stars have missed the postseason four years in a row. The financial difficulties of the Dallas Stars impeded the team from making the sort of free agency additions that the Stars had grown accustomed to over the years and after the Brad Richards trade, it was rare that the Stars had the flexibility to make the sort of big trades needed to help improve the team.

It's interesting to look back at the draft history of the Stars over the past ten years and see just how the current roster has been shaped. The draft history during this time, especially under Doug Armstrong, is directly linked to the free agency and trade strategy employed by the Dallas Stars and how they were attempting to build the team.

After 2002, when the Stars missed the postseason and Ken Hitchcock was fired, the Stars fought to maintain a competitive roster by spending with the top teams in the NHL and maintaining a relatively high payroll. The Stars also traded for veteran players in the hopes of adding more star power and experience, while players like Sergei Zubov, Jere Lehtinen, Mike Modano and Marty Turco were all playing at high levels.

It was an attempt to keep the Stars on top of the division and in the playoffs using what is obviously a short-term strategy. The Stars were at the height of their popularity in Dallas following the 1999 and 2000 Stanley Cup teams and it was a fight to not only maintain that level of prominence, but to also avoid the disappointment and letdowns experienced during the lost postseason of 2002.

The problem with this approach came in 2006, when the league emerged from the lockout with completely new and different restrictions on how teams could be built. A salary cap was now in place and the teams that drafted the best and were able to hang onto their young talent were the teams able to consistently win. Doug Armstrong attempted to keep the Stars on top with several more trades but it was apparent that the strategy that worked for the Stars in the late 90s and early 2000s was no longer going to work quite as well.

This all ties back to the draft strategy of the Stars. This is a team that, for the better part of the past 20 years, has utilized deft trades and smart free agent signings to build successful teams -- it's only natural that Armstrong would attempt to maintain this strategy once he took over. The Stars certainly took the draft seriously, but it was also apparent that Armstrong considered draft picks valuable assets with which he would use to bolster the current team -- a strategy that did not play out nearly as well as he planned.

Let's take a look at all of the trades involving draft picks for the Stars involving first through third round picks from 2002 to 2009, when Joe Nieuwendyk was hired as the General Manager of the Stars.

Year	Original Pick	Stars Trade	Stars Receive
2002	1-13	2002 first round pick (#13-Alexander Semin)	2002 first round pick (#26-Martin Vagner), 2002 second round pick (#42-Marius Holtet), 2003 sixth round pick (#185-Francis Wathier)
2002	1-20	2002 first round pick (#20-Daniel Paille)*	Ron Tugnutt, 2002 second round pick (#32-Janos Vas)
2003	1-28	2003 first round pick (#28-Corey Perry)	Two 2003 second round picks (#36-Vojtech Polak) (#54-B.J. Crombeen)
2003	--	Grant Marshall	2003 second round pick (#33-Loui Eriksson)
2003	--	Stu Barnes	Michael Ryan, 2003 second round pick (#65-Branislav Fabry)
2004	1-20	2004 first round pick (#20-Travis Zajac)	2004 first round pick (#22-Lukas Kaspar), 2004 third round pick (#88-Clayton Barthel)
2004	1-22	2004 first round pick (#22-Lukas Kaspar), 2004 fifth round pick (#153-Steven Zalewski)	(#28-Mark Fistric), 2004 second round pick (#52-Raymond Sawada), 2004 third round pick (#91-Alexander Edler)
2004	--	Mike Sillinger, 2004 second round pick (#34-Johan Fransson)	Daryl Sydor
2004	2-20	2004 second round pick (#50-Enver Lisin)	Valeri Bure
2004	2-24	Jon Klemm, 2004 second round pick (#54-Jakub Sindel)	Stephane Robidas, 2004 fourth round pick (#104-Fredrik Naslund)
2004	--	2004 third round pick (#91-Alexander Edler)	2005 third round pick (#71-Richard Clune)
2005	--	2004 third round pick (#88-Clayton Barthel)	2005 third round pick (#75-Perttu Lindgren)
2005	3-28	2004 eighth round pick (#232-Martin Houle), 2005 third round pick (#89-Chris Lawrence)	Chris Therien
2006	2-30	John Erskine, 2006 second round pick (#60-Jesse Joensuu)	Janne Niinimaa, 2007 fifth round pick (#136-Ondrej Roman)
2007	--	Martin Skoula, Shawn Belle	Willie Mitchell, 2007 second round pick (#50-Nico Sacchetti)
2007	2-22	Jaroslav Modry, Johan Fransson, 2007 second round pick (#52-Oscar Moller), 2007 third round pick (#82-Bryan Cameron), 2008 first round pick (#28-Viktor Tikhonov)	Mattias Norstrom, Konstantin Pushkarev, 2007 third round pick (#64-Sergei Korostin), 2007 fourth round pick (#94-Maxim Mayorov)
2008	1-28	See Above.	See Above.

*The 2002 first round pick, at #20, came from the trade of Joe Nieuwendyk, Jamie Langenbrunner to Devils for Jason Arnott and Randy McKay.

Ok, so a bit of an explanation for the table above. When I haven't listed the "original pick" from that year's trade, that means that the Stars didn't necessarily trade away a particular draft pick, instead trading players or acquired picks during that transaction. Every player is parentheses that is listed is the player that was ultimately selected with that draft pick.

When we look back at all of these trades, a few things begin to become extraordinarily clear. For one, Armstrong put a very high value on his first round and second round picks -- not for the future of the team but as valuable assets that could be used to improve the Stars right there and then. Armstrong was also in favor of trading down, giving up first and second round picks if it meant more picks later in the draft.

The Stars, during this time, were relatively successful on the ice and generally entered the draft with a first round selection that came late in the round. The NHL Draft generally becomes a crap shoot when you move outside the top 15 selections or so, and it is easy to understand the strategy that Armstrong had regarding these picks -- why not trade what will be a risky selection anyway, for a player that is already proven?

Of course, this strategy is only as prudent as your evaluation of the draft overall. The 2002 draft possessed good depth and the Stars traded down twice in favor of Ron Tugnutt -- a backup goaltender -- and four players that ultimately never made it to the NHL. The 2003 draft is regarded as one of the deepest ever and the Stars traded out of the first round yet again, in favor of two second round selections that never panned out. The 2002 draft was so deep, in fact, that Loui Eriksson fell to the second round.

It's also impossible to say who the Stars would have selected had they stuck with their original picks, but seeing names like Alexander Semin, Corey Perry, Travis Zajac and Daniel Paille in the slots originally owned by the Stars is certainly frustrating. Perhaps the Stars were hoping to find better value in the second round, through sheer numbers alone.

The whole point of the draft is to improve and secure the future success of the franchise. By trading away multiple top picks in favor of later selections that would never do much for the Stars, Armstrong was effectively putting a pair of handcuffs on the Stars for the future. It's impossible to see such ramifications in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, when the Stars were one of the best the NHL had to offer, but the team-building strategy of the Stars would eventually have to rely upon the depth the organization had to offer and when 2008 and 2009 rolled around -- the depth in the Stars organization was drastically missing.

"Elite" talent can come from anywhere in a draft. Jamie Benn is a great example of this and there are certainly others that have been drafted in the later rounds that ultimately became top players in the NHL. Yet most elite talent in the NHL is found in the first round, specifically in the top of the first round, and the Stars stayed well away from this area during these years -- sometimes by design, sometimes by circumstance. When the Stars had the chance to go for elite talent, or at least a better chance at elite talent, it was traded away.

This lack of elite talent is what has hurt the Stars so dearly the past four years.

The Stars are where they are right now because of a myriad of reasons, including bad trades, bad free agent signings and financial issues -- but this is also a franchise that has had to spend the past three drafts repairing a farm system that appeared to be completely pushed to the side by prior management.

The other part of this issue, the actual players that were drafted by the Stars during this time and this lack of "elite talent", is what we'll dive into in Part 2.

2012 NHL Free Agency: Alexander Semin Presents Intriguing Option For Dallas Stars

2012-05-16T15:11:18Z

There are a few names at the top of every fan's wishlist this summer as the NHL heads to free agency, with Zach Parise and Ryan Suter leading the way. For the Dallas Stars, who are now apparently willing and able to once again be not only active but proactive in spending during free agency to improve the team, the tendency of the team might be to want to sign the biggest "splash" available. This would be in order to not only raise the level of talent on the roster but to also bring more attention to the Stars from around the Dallas market.

There are multiple issues with going after the biggest names available, the least of which is going to be the asking price involved. Some of the top players hitting the market have red flags that will make any team think twice about making a significant investment and when it comes to free agents with a laundry list of issues heading into the summer, Alexander Semin tops the list.

Semin has been the focus of intense ire by Captials fans and media over the past few years, as his considerable talent level and production early in his career began to be overshadowed by accusations of lazy play and a lack of heart. Three years ago these issues weren't considered a major problem as Semin put up 40 goals and 84 points; the past two seasons, however, Semin's productivity has dropped off considerably despite making a considerable amount of money.

What sort of option does Semin present to the Dallas Stars and would he be worth the investment? There's also the fact that it's not entirely clear whether Semin even wants to test NHL free agency this summer. Let's take a closer look after the jump.

ALEXANDER SEMIN	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM
2006-07 - Capitals	77	38	35	73	-7	90
2007-08 - Capitals	63	26	16	42	-18	54
2008-09 - Capitals	62	34	45	79	25	77
2009-10 - Capitals	73	40	44	84	36	66
2010-11 - Capitals	65	28	26	54	22	71
2011-12 - Capitals	77	21	33	54	9	56

Drafted by the Capitals at 13th overall in 2002, Semin burst onto the NHL scene at age 22 with an incredible rookie season with 38 goals and 73 points in 77 games. He lost the Calder Trophy that season to Evgeni Malkin, but it certainly appeared that the Capitals had found yet another Russian phenom with which to build their powerhouse of a team.

As we all know, the Capitals quickly became of the most consistently successful teams in the NHL over the next six years. Yet the team was never able to find success in the postseason and as the years have passed what once looked like the makings of a dynasty seems to be headed to a breakup without ever tasting Stanley Cup glory. Bruce Boudreau was fired in the middle of this past season and Alex Ovechkin has seen a significant dropoff in production (although still at a relatively high level) the past few seasons.

Part of the perceived problem has been with Alexander Semin, especially these last two seasons. There have numerous articles written about his attitude and how his work ethic on the ice has been severely lacking the past few seasons, something that has been levied against the Capitals overall as well. When Dale Hunter was named as coach in the middle of the season, he immediately changed the overall approach of the team by reducing Ovechkin's minutes and turning Semin into a defensive-forward extraordinaire.

Hunter was able to, in theory, get his team working together better and playing harder -- by blocking a ton of shots -- yet also completely took away the offensive aggression that the Capitals have become known for. While a better balance was always needed on that team, some say Hunter went too far down the opposite end of the spectrum and further isolated the superstars on his team.

Now, with Hunter leaving and the Capitals looking for a new coach, uncertainty abounds regarding the future of Semin and his desire to stay in Washington. The situation has changed over the past couple of days as well, starting when Semin's agent let loose with the claim that Semin wanted to leave the Capitals, while his client was flying to Finland for the World Championships.

The issue, according to agent Mark Gandler, is that Semin is looking for an extended role on whatever team he plays for and that doesn't fit with the future plans of the Capitals.

"It was good while it lasted. With the lack of playoff success, with the direction they are going. They decided to change directions. That's within their rights. Alex doesn't fit into that system obviously," Gandler told ESPN The Magazine. "It just doesn't make any sense to him. He plays, he did the best he could under the circumstances and he earned his right to be a free agent."

As soon as Semin landed in Europe, of course, he was inundated with questions about his decision to become a free agent. It seems that Semin wasn't communicating very well with his agent, or there is some gamemanship in the works, because Semin says talk of him leaving the Capitals is currently premature.

Via Dmitry Chesnokov of Puck Daddy:

"This is all just talk. Words can get twisted. There was no talk at all that I am not going to sign with the Capitals for sure. I have not talked to them [the Capitals] about leaving. And please don't ask me questions about the next season anymore."

Chesnokov says that he was told the decision between Semin and his agent "wasn't necessarily to test the free agency, but rather to take his time to see how the negotiations between the League and the union go regarding the new CBA." This is likely the biggest deciding factor in whatever choice Semin makes, especially if there is going to be a cap placed on the annual value and number of years on future contracts, as part of the new CBA.

There's also the simple fact that the Capitals haven't yet chosen a new coach and there's no way to determine just what sort of system and approach the team will use next season. If Semin had this discussion with his agent before the postseason, as has been reported, then it makes sense that he could be unhappy with the direction of the team -- as it was expected Hunter would likely return if he was moderately successful.

If Semin does indeed decide to become a free agent and not stay with the Capitals, what sort of figure would it take to sign him? There's no telling what the new CBA will look like (although there has been speculation that the salary cap likely won't go down much) so it's impossible to speculate what sort of limits future contracts would have. For practical purposes, it's best to look forward using current figures and price scales.

Semin has played the past two years on separate one-year contracts, worth $6 million in 2010-11 and $6.7 million in 2011-12. It's expected that Semin will once again be looking for another big contract, likely a multi-year contract that takes him well into his 30's, and it may take 5-6 years to sign him. The actual value of the contract is also going to be relatively expensive and likely to be around $5 or $6 million in annual value, depending on how many teams end up bidding for his services.

Two years ago, Semin likely could have signed a monster contract in the offseason as he came off his big 40-goal season with the Capitals. Yet over the past two seasons Semin has scored just 108 points total while making over $14 million in that time span. There have been questions about his dedication to the sport and to his team, about his work ethic on and off the ice and most importantly -- whether a simple "change of scenery" would be enough to make Semin into one of the elite players in the NHL once again.

By comparison, Mike Ribeiro 134 points the past two seasons while making just $10 million while Dallas Stars fans, in general, seem to be increasingly upset with his production level and overall work ethic on the ice. In fact, the Dallas Stars have two other players (Jamie Benn, 119 points and Loui Eriksson, 143 points) who have scored more than Semin over that time for a fraction of the cost.

So the question that most teams will have is whether Semin has the ability to once again turn his production back to the elite level that made him one of the best players in the NHL just a few years ago. Is a change of locale all that Semin really needs to turn things around, along with increased responsibility and an increased role on the team?

Semin showed during the playoffs that he certainly has the ability to be a successful defensive forward, at least relative to what he had shown throughout most of his career. Perhaps this could be a sign that Semin is willing and able to become a more well-rounded player, something that is very important to the Stars if they choose to pursue a player like Semin.

There's no doubting that Semin is a hell of a talented player and would immediately bring elite-level potential to the Stars -- who need better depth and skill at the forward position. Semin is not a true playmaker and is known as more of a sniper, but he is an exceptionally talented offensive forward of a level the Stars certainly need more of.

In theory, Semin also presents a much more cost-effective option compared to Parise or even Ryan Suter and it's likely he'd be willing to sign another one-year contract to prove that it hasn't been Semin that was the problem -- it was how the Capitals used him. For a team like the Stars, who are building for the future and not just one season, you'd wonder if such a contract would be worth it for potentially just one year of service.

There's also the fact that Semin could still bolt for the KHL, especially if the CBA is going to prevent him from getting the big contract he thinks he deserves. Semin will get an absolutely incredibly amount of money in the KHL, something NHL teams will likely not be willing to hand over based on the past two seasons, although there is speculation that Semin wants to stay in the NHL.

There are only a few big names on the list of potential free agents this summer and Semin is certainly one of them. He'd be the "splash" the Stars need and he'd be an immediately infusion of talent and goal-scoring ability -- something the Stars desperately need. Yet he'd also likely come at a price that would be too restrictive for the Stars moving forward, especially for a team that needs not just one player, but multiple players over the next few years to legitimately take that "next step" as a franchise.

Would Alexander Semin be worth the risk? We'll find out in just over a month.

Dallas Stars Daily Links: Kari Lehtonen's Injury Not Serious

2012-05-16T11:00:37Z

If you've been holding your breath since Kari Lehtonen down with some sort of right leg injury last weekend, you can let it out now.

While the Dallas Stars goalie isn't expected to return for Finland in the World Championships, the Stars don't seem to be that concerned about the severity of the injury he suffered late in the game against the United States.

As Mike Heika reports, they haven't necessarily determined what the injury is, with some questions about whether it's a groin or a knee (or, gulp, both). But with four months to recover and Lehtonen struggling in the games immediately before being injured against Canada and the US, maybe it's for the best.

``They're still looking at everything, and there has been a lot of communication between doctors there and our trainer,'' (Stars goalie coach Mike) Valley said. ``They're not 100 percent sure what the injury is, but I've been told it is not a serious injury.''

Team Finland will continue on to the quarterfinals for a rematch with the United States without Lehtonen. They will also be missing Anssi Salmela, who was suspended three games for his hit on Alex Goligoski.

After the jump, more World Championships updates, a look back at the odd FWST column from last week and Tomas Vincour had what now?

Richard Bachman, resident medical expert as well as quality backup goalie, also assures us that Lehtonen will be just fine. [DallasStars.com]
Without Lehtonen, there will be four Stars in the WC quarterfinals, and two of them picked up goals Tuesday at the end of the first round. [ESPN Dallas]
As we start looking forward to the draft, we're going to be taking a closer look at several prospects who might be available when the Stars pick. Luther Xue is hoping for Brendan Gaunce. [SB Nation]
Speaking of prospects, here's a closer look at Reilly Smith, who vaulted to the top of the Stars top prospects chart and made his NHL debut this season. [ESPN Dallas]
And the newspaper that covers the wonderfully named Kootenay Ice takes a look at the trio of local players who spent time with the Texas Stars, including Matt Fraser. [Daily Townsman]
Our friends at The Copper And Blue take on that really, really strange Bud Kennedy column from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram from a few days ago. [The Copper And Blue]
Mike Modano and Jeremy Roenick will relive collisions of rivalries past in a dual chat today. [ESPN]
So I'm reading along in this story about the Edmonton Oil Kings winning the WHL championship (hey, at least one hockey team in that city has to be able to win with young talent), and this sentence jumped out at me about their 2009 team. " Keegan Lowe and Tomas Vincour (now playing with the Dallas Stars) both had H1N1" Oh swine flu, remember when you caused such a panic? [Edmonton Journal]
I love the Systems Analysts post at Backhand Shelf more than most other video breakdowns for some reason, and I think this one about the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils game gave me clue why. I learn just as much about what to do right as I do the mistakes that led to the goal, because the Devils do an awful lot right here. [Backhand Shelf]
As much as it pains me to admit it, the @LAKings Twitter feed is kind of awesome. I'm not sure how much I'd like the grating style for a full season from anyone, even the Stars, but it certainly is a nice short-term difference from the eye-roll worth @NHL feed. Meet the Kings staffers behind the curtain. [Puck Daddy]
Dustin Brown dives? Mike Smith went to the Marty Turco and Eddie Belfour school of protecting your crease? Surely you jest.

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2012 NHL Free Agency: Identifying Scoring Options For The Dallas Stars

2012-05-15T19:42:24Z

For the first time in years the Stars appear ready to throw some money around in early July, and not just on complementary parts. The days of throwing money at the back half of the roster and selling it as a success are (seemingly) over with stable ownership in place. There can be no doubt that having money is preferable to not having money, but the new circumstances bring new problems. Mo' money mo' problems, as they say.

The biggest potential new problem facing the Stars is a desperation signing made after the big target(s) is gone. The free agent minefield traps some unfortunate (unprepared?) team every season, and oftentimes the team that steps on the mine is one looking to make a splash to change the image of the franchise under new ownership. Sound familiar?

Leading up to the opening of free agency I'm going to examine some of these traps potentially awaiting the Stars on July 1st by following a strict set of criteria aimed at finding long term fits to help push the Stars to the next level of the win curve. The remainder of this post will focus on the scoring options up front. Brace yourself, Zach Parise.

Glossary

Zach Parise will be a large focus of this post, but he will hardly be the main focus. Parise, and a blinding focus on Parise alone, is very likely to end poorly. The Stars will not be focused on Parise alone (or Suter, but we'll jump off that bridge eventually). The general population of Stars fans might be though, and if the Stars are unable to convince Parise to jump ship from New Jersey some fans are going to have an immediately poor reaction.

Parise is far from the only scoring option available to the Stars though, and he might not even be the top scoring option available on July 1 that fits the Stars needs. Before we tackle that possibility it might be helpful to spell out the criteria I used to sift through the full free agent class to narrow my scope down to 20 forwards and 21 defensemen. The ultimate goal of the criteria is important to keep in mind. The Stars aren't a player or two away from being a legitimate contender. The goal is to find long term fits that can help pull the Stars up to their former heights for the long haul.

The criteria, in English, is pretty simple. Old forwards (33 or older) and forwards who barely played (less than 20 games) were immediately removed because they are either not long term fits due to age, or had some extenuating circumstances keep them off the ice (poor play, age, injury, etc.). With the group narrowed down I moved on to looking for ability. Players who drove possession for their teams, succeeded in tough minutes, and generally contributed more positives than negatives are the focus of this search.

These criteria uncovered 20 forwards. This post is going to focus solely on the top offensive forward options with future posts dedicated to other nebulous groupings of free agents. The top six even strength scorers among those 20 finalists can be found below.

NAME	PTS/60	Corsi Rel
SEMIN	2.3	11
PARENTEAU	2.27	9.6
HUDLER	2.22	0.8
PARISE	2.18	4.2
WELLWOOD	2.15	15.8
KELLY	2.01	-7.8

The top scoring forwards at even strength among the 2012 free agent class are, in order, Alexander Semin, P.A. Parenteau, Jiri Hudler, Zach Parise, Kyle Wellwood, and Chris Kelly. Each player comes with their own set of circumstances that would make any general manager think long and hard before signing them to a contract. Fortunately, this group does offer some upside. Three of the six drove possession for their respective teams significantly in 2012: Semin, Parenteau, and Wellwood with Parise also doing so at a slightly above average rate. Context will once again prove to be necessary to get a handle on the surplus value these guys could generate for the Stars though.

NAME	OZ%	Corsi QoC	Corsi QoT
SEMIN	51.1	-0.34	0.7
PARENTEAU	56.2	0.71	2.612
HUDLER	55.8	0.789	-0.467
PARISE	54.2	0.731	1.173
WELLWOOD	60.5	0.105	2.146
KELLY	47.2	0.383	-0.64

If he didn't immediately eliminate himself as a possible scoring option for the Stars by name recognition alone, Wellwood's upside is inflated significantly by the favorable ice time he got in Winnipeg (good teammates and 60% offensive zone starts) and his bloated shooting percentage (19%, seen below). Chris Kelly's poor Corsi numbers with the Bruins are partially explained away by the fact that he routinely played tough minutes for a very good team, but a small red flag remains if Joe is looking to improve the transition game (he should be).

The big knock against P.A.Parenteau going into free agency is the idea that John Tavares was a significant factor in his production. It's valid to a degree for sure. Playing with good players is preferable to playing with mediocre players, but the when you come out of nowhere to produce while playing with Tavares the questions are valid. As you can see below though Parenteau didn't score on an abnormally high rate of his shots, and his linemates shot roughly around the average of the six forwards discussed in this post. Playing with Tavares certainly made an impact, but it doesn't look like playing with Tavares artificially inflated his numbers to a significant degree. He's just a valuable offensive player.

NAME	S%	Career S%	On Ice S%
SEMIN	11.5	14.1	9.92
PARENTEAU	10.8	11	9.03
HUDLER	19.7	13.7	11.17
PARISE	10.6	11.4	8.82
WELLWOOD	19.4	14.1	7.84
KELLY	16.4	11.6	11.33

We can draw some further conclusions about the other five players by analyzing the shooting percentage splits that impacted their production. Jiri Hudler, Kyle Wellwood, and Chris Kelly all had abnormally high spikes in their shooting percentages. Both Hudler and Wellwood touched 20% while Kelly hit 16.4. The trio had 40-50% increases in 2012 so expecting them to continue at those rates is very unrealistic. Hudler's and Kelly's teammates also shot at a high percentage which will naturally boost their assist totals.

What have we learned so far? Kyle Wellwood, despite sneaking onto this list, isn't a realistic top six scoring option for the Stars. Chris Kelly isn't either though he may fit in on the third line. Jiri Hudler, a player some Stars fans seem to view as a fallback option to Parise, should be handled with extreme caution. Like Kelly he could sign with the Stars, and be a productive player. Based on his production last year he's likely going to make enough money that he needs to be more than a productive player. The Stars attempts at signing a scorer should focus on Semin, Parise, and Parenteau.

The most obvious all around fit for the Stars is Zach Parise, but any number of teams could make the same statement. Both he and Semin can probably expect contracts in the six to eight million range over six or seven years. Either would be a huge risky franchise-altering commitment for this front office to make, but such is free agency. If they plan on filling up sacks of money for one scorer Zach Parise is the least risky of the two by a decent margin. P.A. Parenteau should come with a smaller financial risk, but also more performance risk. The Stars can use a playmaker like Parenteau though the obvious preference should go to a goal scorer.

For the first time in years the Stars have options, but that doesn't mean they can throw caution into the wind. They have to identify the right players to spend the dough on, and then convince those players that joining the Stars is worth the commitment. The Stars definitely do need to take bold action to get the franchise back into the playoffs, but they also need to tread carefully in free agency. If the main options they identify dry up it's ok to move on. The last thing the Stars need is to sign a bad contract that hurts them down the road because they panicked.

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2012 NHL Draft: Strength & Weaknesses Of An Interesting Draft Class

2012-05-15T16:00:08Z

The story of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft has been one of ups and downs. At the beginning of the season this was considered one of the most exciting and deepest draft classes since 2003. However, this draft class has been plagued by the injury bug and the draft rankings has shifted dramatically, more so than most drafts in recent history.

How has this affected the draft? With players being injured and unable to play they won't have had the exposure that they would require to become a first round pick. Teams tend to be cautious before drafting someone that has been injured for a lot of the season. Because of this players who might have originally been drafted within the first round are dropping to the second rounds or beyond because scouts haven't seen them playing enough and the teams are generally careful over whether to draft a player who has been injured and missed a significant part of the season.

For example there are a couple of players that spring to mind from this draft class who have dropped significantly from their preseason positions mostly due to injury. Players such as Jarrod Maidens and Martin Frk have both suffered concussion issues this year and have gone from potential first round picks to likely second round picks.

There is a possibility that some very good players could drop because of injury concerns and be a steal in the second or maybe third. However someone like Alex Galchenyuk, who spent most of this season out with injury, is unlikely to fall. Despite missing a lot of the season he is still clearly an incredibly talented player and a proven player. Then again he went from potentially challenged for first overall to probably being picked by the 5th pick.

After the jump, the strengths and the weaknesses of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft...

Strengths:

This draft is, without any doubt, the strongest and deepest for defensemen since the 2008 draft. There are plenty of potentially elite, top 3 or 4 defensemen who will almost certainly be drafted within the first round and into the second. There is a general feeling that potentially up to half of the first round picks will be for defensemen. In 2008 12 defensemen were drafted within the first round, the highest number in the post lock out era.

In 2008, defensemen such as Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, Tyler Myers, and Erik Karlsson all had their names called in the first round. Some of these defensemen are prominent figures for their teams today. Within 4 years the defensemen of the 2012 draft will likely be making a strong impression, with Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, Mathew Dumba and many more all at the top of the list. The depth of elite defensemen is enough to make any team consider picking up a potential franchise defenseman.

Though not as deep as previous years this year's draft has also got a lot of good centres who could end up being top 6 forwards at the NHL level. Players such as Mikhail Grigorenko, Alex Galchenyuk, Radek Faksa, Brendan Gaunce, Zemgus Girgensons and Filip Forsberg. Generally most of the picks in the first round go towards drafting centres: 9 were picked in 2007, 11 in 2008, 12 in 2009, 13 in 2010, 10 in 2011. If 15 defensemen are drafted within the first round in my opinion at least 9 picks will be for centres.

Though weaker at the top end of the draft there are some goaltending prospects that look interesting further down the draft. Goaltenders such as: Antony Stolarz, Daniel Altshuller, Chris Driedger, Michael Houser, Joonas Korpisalo and Marek Langhamer. These will likely go between the second the fifth rounds. If the Stars were looking for goaltender prospect depth they could find good players in the later rounds.

Weaknesses:

Unlike in previous years I think it's highly unlikely that we will see a goaltender be taken within the top 15. In reality there are very few goaltenders in this draft who could challenge for a first round selection. Those that could push for picks in the late first round are Malcolm Subban, Andrei Vasilevski and Oscar Dansk.

One of the most striking things about this draft is the lack of wingers that will be drafted within the first round. Beyond Nail Yakupov, Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Collberg and possibly Thomas Wilson I think its highly unlikely there will be any other winger drafted within the top 15 or potentially 20 picks. In the second round however there will be several good wingers available.

The injury bug has hit hard and despite the hope good players might fall its possibly that some players will never reach their potential because of those injuries or because they are injury prone. If a team is picking a player who have been injured during their draft season they need to be very careful and cautious. It's possible that the spate of injuries that has hit this draft class could lead to this draft being far weaker than first thought. However it is too early to see.

Conclusions And The Draft Ahead

This is a good year for any team that wants an offensive puck moving elite defenseman. The first round will be dominated from top to bottom with very good defensive prospects many of which could be potential franchise defensemen. The main story which is likely going to come out of this draft is whether this draft class will match the defensive depth of the 2008 draft class. Though originally it was thought they could challenge the 2003 class for depth overall injuries have made this draft much weaker.

Will this draft be the first time since 2004 that two Russian players are selected with the first and second overall picks? It's possible that, with Yakupov a safe bet for the first overall selection, Mikhail Grigorenko could be drafted second overall. Or will the Columbus Blue Jackets pick Ryan Murray, a defenseman, second overall?

Second round steals or later could be another of this year. With so many injuries to potential first round players there will be some elite players who have gotten unlucky with the injury bug dropping out of the first round into the low second round. Could the Dallas Stars benefit from that? As fans we can only hope so.

2011-12 Dallas Stars Season: Erin's Year In Review

2012-05-15T13:01:05Z

We're wrapping up our 2011-2012 Dallas Stars season analysis this month here at Defending Big D. As part of our wrap-up, we're trying something a little unique and different to end the season. Over the next week or two, each of the DBD staff members will be writing a personal perspective on the season that was. It's going to be cathartic, sometimes witty, sometimes funny, and hopefully won't include anymore almost-arrests like Taylor had this season.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised by this, but the experience of a season is entirely different as a blogger.

Because when I look back on the 2011-12 Dallas Stars season, much of it is colored by my first year being LinksGirl for the site. The interaction I had with the other bloggers and our readers, the constant quest for finding the story or trend within the game and having to take a couple steps back from the raw emotion of any one individual win or loss all made this a very different season than any I’ve experienced since I started following the team as a homesick Dallas native living in Boston in 1998.

Ever since I discovered sports, they’ve always been an extreme emotional outlet for me. They’re a place where you, at least through the vehicle of your emotional attachment to a team, can feel the highest highs and lowest lows along with a whole set of other people along for the ride. They’re the appropriate place to express a competitive side most of us try to keep hidden, or at least reined in, in our working and family lives.

That’s what the Stars have been for me, which has made the last four seasons such kicks in the gut, as I’m sure they’ve been for most of you. But because of my new role on the site, this was the first year I really forced myself to step back and be a little more analytical and a little less emotional about being a fan.

And you know what? I think I actually enjoyed this year much more because of it. It’s obviously not an approach for every fan, but when I look back at the season now, I’m much more apt to remember the high points - Mike Ribeiro and his freaking wizardry with the puck, Jamie Benn winning against the entire Columbus Blue Jackets lineup, Kari Lehtonen stretching beyond every anatomy textbook’s recommended limits. I think taking half-a-step back made me realize how much fun a full season of hockey is regardless of the results.

Even so, what stands out the most now are those times when it was impossible to hold back the emotion.

I joined the DBD team right at the start of training camp, my first post being links that chronicled the Yaroslavl Lokomotiv plane crash and death of the entire team, including former Stars defenseman Karlis Skrastins. From the heartbreaking story of the family he left behind to the sobering reminder of everyone’s mortality, it was a tough time for everyone who had even a passing connection with any person on that flight.

The Stars did a great job honoring Skrastins as the season went on, culminating in the late-season ceremony where they told his family of the trust fund they set up for his three daughters. The emotion in the building and throughout the fandom was palpable.

It was also tough not to feel a little defensive and insulted when the Stars struggled mightily with their attendance at the beginning of the season. While the reasons were varied and valid, including a distinct lack of a marketing budget and a corporate ticket base that had been scared off by years of mediocrity and bank ownership, it was still very hard to watch and even harder to hear about from essentially every corner of the traditional market hockey media.

On a happier note, it was impossible to hold back some glee when the Stars finally, finally got sold to Tom Gaglardi. The process of getting the team out of the Tom Hicks-induced bankruptcy and into the hands of someone willing to pay more than a limited internal salary cap. The changes on the business side were immediate – Jim Lites was one of the first back in the fold, and a variety of new ticket initiatives brought bigger crowds. And there was a definite air of optimism around the resources the team now has to put into the near future and beyond.

And of course, there was also the sorrow and depression as the Stars faded late in the season. We’ve rehashed all the reasons six ways to Sunday at this point, but the more I thought about it, the more I’ve come to believe that "pesky" is the perfect word for this year’s team. Pesky is your annoying preteen little brother who is just good enough and quick enough to hang with you in basketball, steal a few points, elbow you in the ribs and in general make you want to murder him because he just won’t go away. But he is still your little brother, and he just doesn’t have the physical skills to pull all the way through for the victory. He’s still waiting for that day when he hits his growth spurt, puts on eight inches and 60 pounds and owns you for the rest of eternity. Hopefully for the Stars, that growth spurt comes soon.

But like I said above, it’s the individual moments of brilliance and effort and sometimes humor that stand out for me now. I watch hockey, and really all sports, to see people push the boundaries of physical performance, and we were treated to plenty of that this year, whether it was flashy or done In such a ho-hum manner that you had to ask yourself "Did that just happen?" when Benn or Ribeiro or Lehtonen did something impossible. And I watch for the unintentional comedy, such as poor Stephane Robidas and his bad batch of sticks and the self-preservation instincts of those between a Sheldon Souray shot and the glass behind the net. Nothing can make you gasp in amazement or laugh until your sides hurt quite like sports. It’s why we keep coming back.

It also gave me some great personal memories from around the games. I was only able to make two games in person this year, a consequence of living in the middle of nowhere Missouri, but they were both memorable. The first was the 7-1 preseason spanking of the Montreal Canadiens with a huge helping of Ribeiro, and the second was the shootout loss to the Detroit Red Wings at home in January where the team showed signs of the level of play that would send them on a February tear. I got to meet Taylor and Brad in person, and Taylor and I got to get all girly for Casino Night where we witnessed unsuspecting and slightly inebriated players destroy merchandise on the silent auction tables. Good times. Plus we learned DBD is the homepage of Ralph Strangis. What could be better?

Finally, I’d like to thank the Academy for giving me this honor, or at least Brandon, Brad, other Brandon, Art and Taylor for welcoming me when I joined the DBD staff last fall and Josh, Cole and Huw for being incredibly awesome additions to our team since I joined. You guys put up with my late-night hours, my strange defensiveness about all things officiating and my nitpicking about the minutiae of the NHL Rulebook. I can’t tell you guys how proud I am to be a part of this site.

And I would like to thank you, dear readers, for not ragging me too hard when my nightly ref reports disappeared midway through the season and for engaging in wonderful, if sometimes circular, debates on the comments. You guys make this site what it is, inspire all of us every day, or in my case, obscenely late nights, and most importantly share with us a love of this incredible sport and team. Thank you.

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Dallas Stars Help Build Playground For Homeless Shelter

2012-05-14T21:51:40Z

The Dallas Stars, in partnership with the Pro Players Foundation, helped build a playground at Dallas LIFE shelter this Saturday. The foundation awarded a $25,000 grant to help build the new space for kids, and several foundation staff members and Dallas Stars players were there to lend a helping hand in putting the playground together.

The looks on the children's faces when they saw their new playground was priceless. There is a swing set, a basketball court with an adjustable basketball rim, astroturf to play on, and a big multi-purpose play set (including tunnels, slides, and all sorts of fun things for the kids) with soft mulch to reduce the number of skinned knees!

More on the new playground and much more about Dallas LIFE after the jump!!

Dallas Stars alumni Bob Bassen, along with his sons, Stars Executive Vice President of Business Operations and Development Jason Farris, Vernon Fiddler and his son, Stephane Robidas, and Dallas Mayor Pro Tem Pauline Medrano were among those present to help dedicate the new playground.

This is the fourth year that the Dallas Stars have partnered up with Dallas LIFE, the largest homeless shelter in the Dallas area. Dallas LIFE is not just a homeless shelter, however. They have a very successful rehabilitation program that allows men and women to relaunch into society with the skills necessary to be productive members of society. The 10 month long New Life program offers classes in such areas as anger management and computer skills, mens and womens issues, budgeting, and resume writing in order to teach them job skills. The program requires commitment, and is very stringent. Everyone works around the shelter, doing different jobs while they are there. They are not allowed to leave the grounds the first 30 days of the program, and have limited time away after that. As they progress through the different stages, they receive more and more priveleges.

Dallas LIFE takes not only men and women, but families, married couples, special needs, single parent families, and the elderly, and is one of the few shelters in the area that caters to such diversified needs in one place. Bob Sweeney, the executive director of Dallas LIFE, took everyone on a tour of the facilities and grounds. He emphasized that Dallas LIFE is not just "3 hots and a cot", but a program that shows real success in its graduates. Most shelters see a 2-3% success rate, where people never need assistance again after leaving. Dallas LIFE's success rate is over 20%!

To learn more about this great charity, or to find ways you can help, please visit www.dallaslife.org.

NHL 2012 Free Agency: What Does Your Dallas Stars Recruitment Video Include?

2012-05-14T19:55:44Z

According to Dallas Stars Ice Girl Kaime, the Stars are out shooting a free agency video today.

Kaime O'Teter ‏ @Kaime_Stars
Out shooting our @DallasStars Free Agency video as your host! We'll convince these guys Dallas is the place to be!! #2012season#peskystars

This got me wondering - what exactly are some of the things you use to sell someone on your franchise? If I were going to make a video to convince free agents to sign with the Dallas Stars, I'd break it into several categories: city features, team features, and financial benefits.

First, Dallas has great schools (for all you with children, this would be a big deal.) It also has a lot of culture - plenty of museums, sports, and arts events every night of the week. There's always something to see and somewhere to go. There are plenty of opportunities for charity work and community involvement if that's your cup of tea. The traffic isn't so bad, and you really can't beat these mild winters Dallas tends to have! Golf in January, anyone?

The team also has plenty of things that make it attractive. A new owner willing to put in the work and money to bring this franchise back to excellence. A general manager that has a clearly defined vision of what the Stars should be, and the commitment to execute it. A management team that does what is best for the team, even when those decisions aren't the popular ones. A new young "players" coach, that has seen much playoff success at every level he's coached at, that is here to grow with the franchise. Young talent in the system that should make the team competitive consistently in the future. Fans that are just as rabid as any others, and plenty of fans just waiting to be converted.

Have I mentioned the tax breaks yet? Texas doesn't have a state income tax. Our property taxes might be higher than some states, but our housing costs are also much lower as well. You can live comfortably in Texas at a fraction of the cost, leaving more money in your checkbook.

So tell us - what would you include as benefits to playing for the Dallas Stars?