DRaysBay

While writing my piece for last weekend, I spent a lot of time looking at the Fangraph win values of historical players on the Rays. I'm a huge fan of baseball history and lore, and looking at those old totals sparked an interesting question in my mind: I wonder who's had the worst offensive year ever while on the Rays. For being one of the two youngest teams in baseball, our franchise already has a long history of suckitude - to be precise, 10 years with a record of 645-972 (.399 Win%). I don't know where that ranks in terms of all-time worst stretches, but it's got to be up there. Anyway, since our franchise had been so bad until recently, I figured we must have a good amount of sucking in our history. The trick is, how best to quantify it?

To answer this question, I decided to rank all the players that have played with the Rays by their Fangraphs Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). For those unfamiliar with wRAA, this statistic measures how many offensive runs a player contributed to their team when compared to the league average for that year. It's a counting stat, like RBIs and HRs, meaning that in order to accumulate a really low wRAA, a player not only has to be bad, but they also have to be given playing time. That said, here's your list of the lowest of the low, the ten worst offensive seasons in the Rays' history:

	Player	Year	wRAA
1	Vinny Castilla	2000	-30.3
2	John Flaherty	1998	-26.8
3	Dioner Navarro	2009	-24.0
4	Tomas Perez	2006	-23.8
5	Brent Abernathy	2002	-23.3
6	Bobby Smith	1999	-21.9
7	Geoff Blum	2004	-20.6
8	Kevin Stocker	1998	-20.2
9	Dioner Navarro	2007	-18.6
10	Felix Martinez	2000	-18.4

I figured that Navarro's 2009 season would rank towards the top of the bottom, but I didn't know that he'd own the dubious honor of being the only player with two seasons in the bottom ten. It helps that he catches - the bar is set so low, managers can justify playing poor hitting catchers for longer than they would be able to otherwise. Castilla's 2000 season truly was one for the record books, though. If you thought Navarro was painful to watch this year, imagine this: Castilla ranked up his -30.3 wRAA in only 354 plate appearances (compared to Navarro's 410). And he was a third baseman! Look at this line: .221/.254/.308. That's just...wow.

Now that we've taken some time to marvel at the lows of our organization, what about the high points? What have the ten best offensive seasons been? And along those lines, who is the Rays' all-time offensive leader in wRAA? The answers are after the jump, but first, take the time to answer the poll in the post down below if you haven't already.

Let's start with the ten best offensive seasons, as measured by wRAA:

	Player	Year	wRAA
1	Carlos Pena	2007	51.0
2	Ben Zobrist	2009	39.3
3	Fred McGriff	1999	35.7
4	Aubrey Huff	2003	32.0
5	Evan Longoria	2009	28.3
6	Jason Bartlett	2009	28.1
7	B.J. Upton	2007	25.8
8	Jose Canseco	1999	23.3
9	Carlos Pena	2008	23.1
10	Carlos Pena	2009	21.6

Four, count ‘em, four players from the 2009 Rays made the top ten; that speaks wonders about the strength and depth of our current offense. Also, holy cow, I had forgotten just how amazing Pena was in 2007. For an equivalent, Joe Mauer created 54.9 wRAA this past season; Pena created 51.0 wRAA in 2007. The second best season in Rays' history, Zobrist's 2009 season, falls 11.7 wRAA behind Pena's 2007 season, a difference equivalent to the entire offensive value of Magglio Ordonez this past year (which wasn't shabby at a .356 wOBA). Pena was a force of nature that year, and his .345 ISO from that season is far and away the highest in franchise history (second place: Pena, 2008, .310 ISO).

And now, the list you've all been waiting for: the all-time Rays' offensive leaderboard. I always find it fun to see which players lead franchises in counting stats like homeruns, RBIs, and hits, but those lists don't actually tell us how much value each player contributed to the team. With that in mind, this list can serve as our sabremetric response, as we answer the question: which player has contributed the most runs to the Rays over the course of their tenure?

	Names	wRAA
1	Carlos Pena	95.7
2	Fred McGriff	74.2
3	Carl Crawford	57.4
4	Aubrey Huff	52.2
5	Evan Longoria	47.0
6	Jose Canseco	30.1
7	Julio Lugo	24.9
8	Bubba Trammell	24.4
9	Jason Bartlett	21.0
10	BJ Upton	19.5
11	Ben Zobrist	17.6
12	Ben Grieve	17.2

Going into this exercise, I knew that Pena had created a lot of offensive value for the Rays over the course of the past three seasons, but I don't think I appreciated exactly how much. He's been incredible and while we don't have the most illustrious franchise history (it's telling that Bubba Trammell sits in 8^th place), he deserves his place at the top of the list. Also, how many people would have said Fred McGriff was the second most valuable offensive player in Rays' history? Maybe I jumped on the Rays' bandwagon too late and missed being able to appreciate McGriff, but I though Crawford would be ahead of him by now. And wait...Jose Canseco was actually good? Somehow I missed this, but at least one part of the "Hit Show" was a success for a season or two.

Looking at next year, if Crawford is with the Rays for the whole time and Longoria produces like he has the past few years, we could see Crawford move into the #2 spot and Longoria ending up close to McGriff. Upton, Bartlett, and Zobrist all figure to move up spots as well, thankfully moving names like Bubba Trammell and Julio Lugo back down towards the bottom. Pena stands to increase his lead, and although Longoria appears poised to pass him eventually, he'll have his work cut out for him.

So congratulations to Carlos Pena, the Rays' all-time leader in wRAA. This list may not get the most mainstream attention, but considering how sabremetrically-slanted our front office is, it holds more importance than the title of all-time leader in RBIs, for sure.

Rays' Offensive Leaderboard

2009-11-21T11:00:17Z

Ponder this question, answer it, and then mentally rank the options in order from one to five. Leave full rankings in the comments section. And no Fangraphs-peeking allowed!

No worries, the answer will be coming at 10 AM today.

**For those that haven't heard of wRAA, imagine the question this way: who has provided the Rays with the most offensive value during their time with the Rays?**

Poll

Who do you believe is the Rays' all-time offensive leader (as measured by wRAA)?

An Interview with Tampa Bay Rays Director of Pro Scouting Matt Arnold

2009-11-20T10:00:20Z

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Arnold has ties to newly-acquired Rays reliever, Ramon Ramirez.

A few weeks ago, the Rays quietly (is there any other way the Rays announce things?) announced a couple staff moves for the upcoming season. One of the moves that intrigued me was the promotion of Matt Arnold to the newly created position of Director of Pro Scouting. This intrigued me for two reasons: First, I was unaware the team did not have a director in place already. And second, who is Matt Arnold?

Lucky for me, I was able to contact Matt and he is a fan of DRaysBay. He has spent the last three seasons with the Rays as a professional scout. This comes after his stint with the Cincinnati Reds as Associate Director of Pro Scouting. Before his time in Cincinnati, Arnold worked in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers front offices handing a variety of tasks; the Ben Zobrist of the front office, if you will. Matt was kind enough to grant me some time to pick his brain about his new job, his past experiences as a scout and...sabermetrics!

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Matt Arnold...

Tommy Rancel: Congratulations on being named the Director of Pro Scouting. I know you're new to the job, but what will your day to day duties include?

Matt Arnold: Thanks very much. I'm very humbled by the opportunity, and the fact that I work with such a great group of people is something I definitely don't take for granted. It's an exciting challenge and I'm really looking forward to it.

My main focus will be the coordination of our pro scouting staff. We need to have the right people in the right ballparks at the right times. We also need to stay on top of the current flow of information, and when the landscape changes, we need to be able to adjust quickly. I'll be monitoring scouting reports that are submitted and do my best to provide constant feedback and communication to everyone in the field. I'll still be doing a good amount of evaluating and report writing as well.

TR: Does the department pro scouting include independent leagues and overseas, or are those separate groups?

MA: Carlos Alfonso and his entire staff do a tremendous job with our international scouting operations. We'll overlap in some instances when it comes to winter ball coverage in the Dominican, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Mexico, where we'll have our pro scouts get involved. The Independent League coverage falls underneath the pro scouting department, and we plan on continuing to establish a presence in this area.

TR: Obviously to get to this position you had to put in a fair amount of time as a scout and in the scouting department in general. Tell us about your experience as a scout. What did you look for in a player? What things may have deterred you from a player?

MA: I think it started as a kid. I just loved baseball, and if I wasn't playing the game I was studying it. My Dad always told me I knew so much about baseball that he thought I'd make a great cab driver someday. I've always loved the game, and when I was finally able to get an opportunity to work in it, I made a point to put in as much time and effort possible to learn everything I could from quality baseball people.

Spending countless hours in the car and on the road with great veteran evaluators such as Gene Bennett (signed Barry Larkin, Paul O'Neill, Chris Sabo, Don Gullett), Larry Barton (signed Eric Davis), Larry Doughty (former scouting director and general manager), Bob Zuk (signed Reggie Jackson, Darrell Evans, Gary Carter, Willie Stargell), and many other talented baseball people has been very valuable for me. Gaining experience evaluating players at all levels of professional baseball has also been important in developing perspective. Over time, I've developed my own style, but am always trying to evaluate my own process and get better.

Players come in all different shapes and sizes, from Augie Ojeda to Tommy Everidge, so I've always tried not to go into a ballpark looking for a specific ‘cookie cutter' type player. Generally, I like players with tools who show instincts and can play the game. They don't grow on trees.

I like players who play with a sense of urgency. I'd much rather have a player you have to harness than a player you have to prod.

TR: Besides physical tools, how big does a player's make-up factor into a potential trade or signing?

MA: Makeup is a huge factor. It's like anything else in life, you can have all the talent in the world, but if you don't apply yourself, you won't reach your potential.

TR: Who is the best player that you've ever scouted from a position of raw talent?

MA: We had Alex Rodriguez when I was with Texas in 2002. Watching him play everyday made you numb to his unbelievable talent. He could do it all.

TR: In your experience, has there one player who you absolutely thought "couldn't miss", but unfortunately missed?

MA: Several. If you haven't been wrong on players, you haven't written enough reports. I try to learn from those mistakes and reflect on why those players didn't perform the way I had envisioned, and do my best make adjustments in the future.

TR: The Rays are one of a few organizations than openly embrace progressive statistics. Coming from a scouting background, what are your thoughts on statistics in general, as well as the new wave of progressive stats what we've seen recently?

MA: I have a degree in Economics, so I very much appreciate the value of new metrics. Personally, I try to go into a ballpark with a clean slate and without any preconceived notions on players. I do my best to have a good feel for cutting edge data, but our guys in the office do a tremendous job with statistical analysis, so I'll leave that up to them. It's our job as scouts to identify guys that are playing well at every level, but also those who have the tools and may not be performing up to their potential. We can also help identify young talented players who may have little or no statistical histories. At the end of the day, we blend the two thought processes when making decisions.

TR: Some people feel that a person can either be a scouting person or a stats person. Do you feel that these two groups must remain separate, or can we have a blend of both?

MA: I think it's important that we separate the two fields as we each make our own evaluations, but combine them in the final synthesis of information when making a decision.

TR: How heavy do you weigh the competition from the NL to the AL? For example, when scouting a player, how much does it concern you that he may have done certain things in one league that may or may not necessarily translate into the other?

MA: From a scouting standpoint, we have to maintain high standards and identify players that are going to thrive in the American League East.

TR: When scouting potential targets, how big does home park factor in?

MA: I think the ballpark definitely becomes a factor with the end result, but as a scout, I'm more concerned with the process. If a player hits a wallscraper HR to left field in Erie, I know the wall is only 312 ft. away. If he hits it over the basketball stadium behind the left field wall in Erie, it tells me he can hit a bomb in Yellowstone. We always need to take the context of performance into consideration, but if the process is sound and the ability is there, the tools should play at the highest level.

TR: In your opinion, what is the hardest position(s) to scout?

MA: Tough call. Maybe some of the defensive aspects of catching. Operationally, we need to sit behind home plate using a radar gun and evaluate pitchers while breaking down the mechanics of hitters and simultaneously run a stopwatch for the batter, baserunners, and pitchers release times, but also not forget about the footwork, arm action, release times, blocking skills, etc. from catchers. You also need to get a side view in order to see how catchers' hands are working. It's not easy to watch, digest and record so many pieces of information all at once.

TR: If you were a scout for another team, which Rays player would immediately stand out to you?

MA: If they're wearing a Rays uniform, hopefully they'll stand out.

MA:Thanks very much for all the positive Rays energy this community generates.

And thanks to Matt for giving us the first opportunity to introduce him to Rays fans, as well as giving us more perspective into the scouting side of the front office. We wish Matt all the best in his new role and look forward to chatting with him again.

Tampa Bay Rays Add Alexander Torres, Desmond Jennings, and Jeremy Hellickson to 40-Man Roster

2009-11-19T20:14:05Z

Carlos Pena was also reinstated from the 60-day DL. These moves are pretty much procedural. Jennings and Hellickson were going nowhere, and same with Torres -- although I don't believe he was eligible for this year's Rule 5.. This maxes out the 40-man and leaves a few notable players -- Aneury Rodriguez, Nevin Ashley, Ryan Reid, etc. -- unprotected from the Rule 5 draft barring further roster moves before tomorrow's deadline. Obviously you don't like the idea of Rodriguez being plucked, but the odds of him sticking on a 25 man roster for an entire season seem low.

It's time to get this off-season started.

Update: Torres was eligible. He signed with the Angels as a free agent in January 2005. That gives him five accrued minor league years without being on the 40 man.

Presser after the jump.

ST. PETERSBURG, FL-The Tampa Bay Rays have selected right-handed pitcher Jeremy Hellickson, outfielder Desmond Jennings and left-handed pitcher Alexander Torres to the 40-man roster. In addition, first baseman Carlos Peña was reinstated from the 60-day disabled list. The moves put the Rays at the 40-man roster limit.

Hellickson, 22, was named Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Rays organization, going a combined 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA (114-IP, 72-H, 35-R, 31-ER, 29-BB, 132-SO) for Montgomery (AA) and Durham (AAA). After missing most of May and June with a right shoulder strain, he was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A in late July. Overall he struck out 10.42 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .178 batting average. After joining the Bulls, Hellickson went 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in nine starts, held opponents to a .157 average, and had more than twice as many strikeouts (70) as hits allowed (31).

Jennings, who turned 23 after the season, was named Rays Minor League Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player of both Montgomery and the Southern League. He was promoted from Montgomery to Durham in late July. Overall he hit .318 (158-for-497) with 11 home runs, 52 stolen bases (in 59 attempts), 62 RBI, 92 runs scored, 31 doubles, 10 triples, a .401 on-base pct. and .487 slugging pct. Despite the promotion, Jennings finished second in the Southern League in batting (.316), third in steals (37; a Biscuits record), fourth in on-base pct. (.395), fifth in slugging (.486) and tied for fourth in triples (eight). Baseball America named him the No. 18 prospect in baseball in their midseason rankings.

Torres, 21, was acquired on August 28 as part of the trade that sent Scott Kazmir to the Los Angeles Angels. Combining three stops in 2009 - Rancho Cucamonga (A), Arkansas (AA) and Montgomery - he went 13-6 with a 2.77 ERA (156-IP, 48-ER) in 28 appearances and 26 starts. He struck out 156 batters, held opponents to a .222 batting average and allowed only five home runs. He spent the majority of the season with Rancho Cucamonga, where he went 10-3 with a 2.74 ERA and earned California League All-Star honors and a July 31 promotion to Arkansas. Torres is a native of Valencia, Venezuela.

American League Positional Value

2009-11-19T19:35:43Z

I like how Fangraphs gives you convenient graphs showing how players have performed versus the league average over a long period of time, like so:

via www.fangraphs.com

Looks great, right? Carlos is awesome compared to the league average over the last three years. The problem comes in when you consider that he's a First Basemen. Most of them should hit better than league average. We can use positional adjustments to level the playing field, but I wanted to look at this in a different way. My goal was to create a baseline for each position at the AL, NL, & MLB levels. These baselines can be used at the player level, or as in this case, to see how a team stacked up at a position compared to the rest of the league.

First off, here are the league average wOBA's for each position, by league, with the Rays:

Split	AL	NL	MLB	Rays
as C	0.320	0.314	0.317	0.281
as 1B	0.358	0.368	0.363	0.360
as 2B	0.341	0.330	0.335	0.338
as 3B	0.341	0.332	0.337	0.382
as SS	0.322	0.321	0.322	0.396
as LF	0.346	0.345	0.345	0.373
as CF	0.327	0.339	0.333	0.313
as RF	0.354	0.342	0.348	0.342
as DH	0.343	0.361	0.344	0.326

I should mention that nothing in this article has been park-adjusted, but you can see that 3B, SS, & LF grade out incredibly well compared to the rest of the AL. Catcher not so much, with 1B, 2B, CF, & RF in various locations around the average. Using the formula (wOBArays-wOBAal)/1.15*PArays I could convert this to wRAA to get this:

Split

as C

as 1B

as 2B

as 3B

as SS

as LF

as CF

as RF

as DH

wRAAal
-21.0
0.9
-1.7
25.5
42.7
16.7
-9.1
-6.7
-9.2

This converts those wOBA's to runs so that we can just focus on one number. As you can see, the same thing has been borne out. It's much easier to see that, at the plate, our catchers provided over 2 losses compared to the average AL team catcher. With CF and DH providing the next lowest amount of runs (almost a win), and SS, 3B, and LF providing a ton of offensive value, relative to league average for that position. As we know though, offense is only part of the game.

From here, I decided to factor UZR in for all the players that manned each position. This was a simple weighted average using the UZR*Innings added up for all players and divided by the total number of innings for the position. Obviously, catcher and DH were omitted. These positions will only be looked at with an eye for the offensive portion. Here's the UZR for each position:

Split

as C

as 1B

as 2B

as 3B

as SS

as LF

as CF

as RF

as DH

UZR

-4.8
7.9
16.8
-4.6
15.8
9.4
8.6

Clearly, 3B & LF are a cut above. CF, RF, and 2B are a notch down, but still worth close to a win with their defense. 1B and SS were the only positions manned by below-average defense over the course of 2009. Bringing both sides together and dividing by 10 gives us a look at WAR*. It would look something like this:

Split

as C

as 1B

as 2B

as 3B

as SS

as LF

as CF

as RF

as DH

WARal
-2.1
-0.4
0.6
4.5
3.8
3.2
0.0
0.2
-0.9

Our best position, relative to the rest of the AL was 3B, followed by SS, and LF. Those were elite positions giving us a ton of value. We managed to get a little over half a win out of 2B, while CF & RF were basically league average. Those are the positives. Negative values were earned by 1B, DH, and C. If you add all that up you get 9 WAR, but what does that tell you? Is 9 good? Is it bad?

To get an idea, I wanted to do this same exercise for every team in the AL. This chart is what you would get (Click to enlarge):

That may not be completely clear as there is a ton of stuff crammed in there, but I will attach a file at the end so that you can download the entire workbook. The main thing to take out of this is to a) compare the Rays to the rest of the league across positions, and b) so that you can see which teams had great seasons and which ones got stuck with an awful performance. Yankees SS and Twins C had the largest contributions at 4.9 WAR, while Twins 2B was almost the mirror opposite at -4.7 WAR. Here is a table with how each team did at each position. I will be following this up with charts for those that like pretty pictures over numbers. These are sorted left-to-right by most team WAR to least team WAR.

Split	Yanks	Red Sox	Rays	Angels	Rangers	Jays	Indians	Twins	Tigers	Orioles	A's	White Sox	M's	Royals
C	1.0	0.6	-2.1	0.3	-1.3	-2.5	-0.3	4.9	-1.8	0.8	0.8	0.3	-2.0	1.4
1B	2.6	1.7	-0.4	0.9	-3.5	-0.3	0.1	1.4	2.8	-2.4	-3.5	0.2	0.2	-0.1
2B	1.7	2.8	0.6	1.0	1.6	1.7	-1.1	-4.7	0.2	0.5	-1.0	-1.6	-0.7	0.0
3B	1.2	1.2	4.5	3.8	2.1	0.9	-0.9	-0.4	0.5	-1.6	-1.8	-0.8	-1.1	-1.0
SS	4.9	-1.0	3.8	1.9	0.6	2.1	0.8	-0.8	-1.8	-1.2	-0.8	0.6	-3.4	-4.2
LF	0.9	2.1	3.2	0.5	0.9	0.1	-1.2	-0.8	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-1.3	-3.9	0.5
CF	0.7	-1.0	0.0	0.6	0.6	-2.0	1.1	-0.2	1.2	0.4	0.9	-3.1	3.0	-1.5
RF	0.7	3.0	0.2	-1.3	0.3	-0.9	1.2	-1.0	-0.5	-0.3	0.7	-1.6	1.6	-3.0
DH	2.0	-0.1	-0.9	1.2	0.1	1.4	-0.3	0.8	-1.5	-0.3	0.1	0.8	-0.5	-2.7
Total	15.5	9.3	9.0	8.9	1.6	0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-4.4	-4.9	-6.5	-6.8	-10.5

You'll notice that the Yankees are the only team to not have a negative position and that the Rays were only .3 WAR out of 2nd place. The Royals were the Royals. I now want to take a magnified view of each position. This should give you a great look at how each team did filling each position. First off Catcher:

As you can see, the Twins catchers were the best in the league, and it wasn't particularly close. The Royals trotted out the second best catchers, remember we're only looking at offense here. The Jays had the worst catchers in the AL, while the Rays took second in that honor barely beating out the Mariners.

Next up is First Base:

The Detroit Tigers featured the best first base in the league at 2.8 WAR with the Yankees nipping at their heels. The Rays were 4th from the bottom getting -0.4 WAR out of first. The worst first base in the league, however, was a tie between the A's and the Rangers at -3.5 WAR.

Moving along to Second Base:

Finally, the Rays are in the positive, barely beating out the O's for 6th at 0.6 WAR. The leader here was the Red Sox with 2.8 WAR, while the previously mentioned Twins 2B was a black hole at -4.7 WAR. Kudos to the for spotting it early and getting J. J. Hardy. He should allow them to slide some things around in that infield. Something that I found interesting is that the best six teams in the league had the best second basemen. Random variation is fun.

At last we get to Third Base:

Our 3B was one of the best positions in the league at 4.5 WAR, but don't forget about the Angels at 3.8 WAR. The A's and the O's were the worst, though, there is a solid cluster of teams around -1.0 WAR.

Shortstop was another position that we did well in:

We came in second at short, trailing the Yankees by over a win, while the Royals were abysmal beating the Mariners to the bottom by almost a win. Hmm, what's the common thread there?

Left field should treat us well, let's take a look:

The Rays were over a win better than the Red Sox in LF, while the Mariners might be in the market for a top-notch LF.

Here's Center field:

You can see that the Rays broke even landing slightly in the bottom-half of the league. The Mariners CF was almost 2 wins better than the Tigers, the next best team. Meanwhile, the White Sox got nothing out of CF besides a -3.1. The Jays were next to last, but of course this doesn't take into account contract size. YET!!!

Here's your much-maligned RF:

As you can see, the Rays actually got positive RF play, on the whole, though it can't hold a candle to what the Red Sox got. The Mariners barely beat out the Indians for second on the good side, while the other side of the coin shows the Royals getting -3.0 WAR out of their RF'ers. The White Sox and Angels were the next worst at -1.6 & -1.3, respectively.

Lastly, we have the Designated Hitter:

The Rays ran the 3rd worst DH out over the course of 2009. They Royals were about three times worse at -2.7 with the Tigers trying to chase them down at -1.5. Meanwhile, the Yankees got two wins out of their DH and the Jays came in second at the position.

You can download the totals workbook AL WAR TOTAL

I recommend it since you can play with the numbers, use the formulas, and see all the charts. Also, you can see the MLB and NL charts.

Here is one for the RAYS

If you are a fan of another team, please e-mail me and I will send you the book, I just don't want to take the time to put 13 more links in here. Alternatively, feel free to plug in your own data. Once you have the wOBA, just plug in to the team sheet, table tab, column E. You will also need the PA's for column J. UZR, you should be able to figure on your own. Please let me know if anyone decides to do this for the NL teams, it's actually pretty quick to do each team, and I'd love to see how it comes out.

As always, let me know any questions either via e-mail or in the comments. Please leave some if you liked the piece, didn't like it, have questions or opinions, or don't. Thanks to Baseball-reference, The Book, Fangraphs and Sternfan1 for giving me the courage and strength to argue with people all day.

* I know that what I am calculating is not WAR, per se, since it is above average, not replacement. I will use this term so that I don't need to add another acronym to the too crowded landscape. Think of it like WAR, but not precisely.

A Free Agency's Eve Update on Milton Bradley

2009-11-19T18:22:13Z

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

A re-enactment of the Cubs/Rays talks on Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell.

BNightengale: #mlb The Tampa Bay #Rays have become the clear-cut favorite to acquire Milton Bradley

This seems to indicate there was a time when the Rays weren't the frontrunner to acquire Bradley. Everything that can be written about this potential swap has been written. Free agency starts tomorrow and today the Cubs re-signed John Grabow for $7M over two years. That should tell you two things: A) the Cubs have their checkbooks out and B) they aren't afraid to waste some money. To be blunt, I'm tired of waiting on this thing to happen. I've got articles about how B.J. Upton is going to be a horrible influence on Bradley waiting to go. Just spend some cash and make the goat go away. That's how it works, right?

For those wondering, Burrell's CHONE projection is 10 runs worse than Bradley.

Some Interesting Minor League Free Agent Pitchers

2009-11-19T17:00:13Z

Here's the thing about the minor league free agents list. You can spend literally an hour just checking out every name and tracing the prospect genesis of the ones you recognize and it never gets old. There's also a cognitive filter where any semi-interesting player gains a mention on the "Ooh I want!" list. Once promised pitchers will undoubtedly figure things out and hitters will either engage a girl with the last name Luck or invoke on a journey that begins with this:

Scene: Back alley of an abandoned warehouse

A man with a trench coat and extended black case raps on the door amidst the raspy coughing of a stray cat encountering a fur ball.

The warehouse door swings open with an abrupt thud and quickly the man scatters inside. Indoors, the case is handed to the new man while a stack of dollars is bagged and placed within the trench coat. The mystery man places the case on the table and undoes the latches, opening the case and removing shackles before revealing a fine wooden black baseball bat with an orange 25 engraved into the barrel.

Lifting the bat into the moonlight the new owner gasped ‘Gee willickers!" as he took an effortless practice cut or three and could feel the power surge through his veins. The trench coat man begins to make his way out of the door once again but stops at the door to administer a warning, "Look kid, this is the last one, make it last, okay?"

"Yes...yes sir. Good golly thanks a ton mister."

With that in mind, I've compiled a list of mildly intriguing relievers. The idea here is not to land a closer in his prime, but instead find an arm or two who can contribute when injuries and ineffective pitching hit the Rays pen. For this exercise I'm working with the assumption that these guys would take the standard minor league deal and would not require a 40 man roster spot.

Winston Abreu

Striking out nearly a third of the total batters you face indicates you do something well. Holding such a proportion when the sample size is closing in on 1,250 is remarkable. He throws hard. He seems to have a decent secondary offering. In 44 Major League innings Abreu's contact rate is superior (72.1%) to league average (around 81%) and his issues are rooted almost entirely in home runs allowed. That issue does not show up throughout his minor league career and 44 innings is a tiny sample size stretched over four seasons. He received some shine last season to the tune of 128 pitches and was horrendous but for someone who took fewer dollars to return to the system after being designated for assignment by Cleveland, you have to think he's a lock for next year. A spring training invite is hardly a pyrrhic victory for the Rays.

Wes Littleton

The meaningful statistics on Littleton: 102 innings pitched, 59.6% grounders, a strikeout rate essentially equal to the career of Lance Cormier, and a better walk rate to boot. Split last year between Boston and Milwaukee and saw wacky walk rates throughout. Whether that was due to an injury is unbeknownst to me. Was drafted by Texas in 2003 which, I believe, overlaps with Matt Arnold's time in Arlington. Sits in the upper-80s and uses a slider and change effectively against both hands. Worst case: a potential replacement for Chad Bradford's groundhog-thumping ways. Ehren Wasserman, Shane Loux, and Ryan Speier would also make sense in that role.

Scott Patterson

The second of the chichi minor league lifers whom fan infatuation arises naturally like grass. Pitching baseballs is like everything else in the sense that entertainment and enjoyment derived is quickly decreased once money becomes involved. Whether it's writing, telling jokes, or playing baseball, doing it just to make the next rent or car payment takes its toll. Back to Patterson. In the last few seasons he's split time between New York, San Diego, and Oakland. He holds a 10 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in Triple-A through nearly 115 innings and yet has a handful of appearances in the majors to show for it. His walk rate went berserk this year and his fastball doesn't make love to the radar guns.

Marcus McBeth

A former outfield prospect with the Athletics, McBeth spent last season with the Red Sox and saw timei n the majors with the Reds in 2007. He's a fastball pitcher with a decent fastball and supposedly good change. His whiff rates have been impressive throughout the minors.

Andrew Brown

Spent nearly 90 innings in the majors and wasn't poor but missed all of 2009 with a slight labrum tear and rotator cuff damage. Status for 2010: beats me.

That's enough from me, which names pique your interest?

The Rise in the Fall of Nevin Ashley

2009-11-19T12:00:13Z

Nevin Ashley is a 25-year-old catcher for the Rays originally drafted in the 6th round of the 2006 draft out of Indiana State University. Ashley showed ability at the plate through his time in A ball, but began to see his power disappear soon after. Ashley does possess surprising speed for a catcher as evidenced by his AFL leading four triples. Below is a snapshot of his career rates:

Season	Level	PA	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2006	R	185	12.1%	26.1%	0.44	0.477	0.144	0.431
2007	A	490	10.3%	21.4%	0.354	0.431	0.152	0.332
2008	A+	386	13.0%	24.2%	0.348	0.315	0.08	0.299
2009	A+	236	9.9%	23.5%	0.343	0.335	0.095	0.305
2009	AA	139	13.2%	26.3%	0.331	0.314	0.102	0.279

Despite run of the mill offensive numbers, Nevin Ashley was named as a 2009 Florida State League All-Star. There is no question about his arm strength behind the dish as he gunned down a video game-like 48 of 101 (47.5%) base runners in 2009 between A+ and AA. As analysts, we don't have great measures available to evaluate catcher's game calling or defense. For this reason catcher defense is ignored altogether when evaluating Wins Above Replacement. Nonetheless, there's no denying it exists. If proof is needed, look at John Jaso's minor league offensive numbers and ask why he has had little to no shot with the big league club to date.

GIven the lack of information, its worth noting that Ashley was named the Rays Organizational Defensive Player of the Year Award. This seems like a true endorsement given the lack of measurable. For further subjective evaluation jsut ask Stephen Strasburg, the #1 overall pick this year, "Nevin Ashley (catcher Rays) did a great job calling the game. We were always on the same page. We knew to go to a sinker in those situations to get a ground ball." Desert Dogs Pitching Coach Paul Menhart ,when asked about catching Strasburg, chimed in, "Ashley caught his first outing and today's effort. They have had a good plan each time, a very aggressive plan."

Ashley was selected along with Organizational Base Runner of the Year Shawn O'Malley to represent the Rays in the Arizona Fall League. It's no secret Ashley worked with Ben Zobrist's Swing Mechanic, Jamie Cevallos prior to the 2008 season. While they do not actively work together any longer, they do remain in contact. Ashley seems to have found a groove in the warm Arizona climate where he has posted an OPS of 1.113 heading into November 17th, good for 4th in the league. Before I run the risk of speaking hyperbole, Nevin Ashley's 67 At-Bats in the Arizona Fall League do not qualify him as an offensive phenom in anybody's eyes. Most readers have heard the warning shots, which are all very true:

A) Ashley has been old for his minor league level

B) His offensive performance the past two seasons in A+ and AA have been uninspiring to say the least

C) The Arizona Fall League is a heavily inflated offensive league

The hope instead is that Ashley can have a modest bat to accompany potentially elite defensive skills. While sabermetricians have yet to quantify this, it is fun to imagine and not impossible that our outside the box front-office and coaching staff may have a true proprietary defensive read on Ashley. If Ashley's defense is the equivalent of John Jaso's offense and Ashley can begin to put up some respectable numbers at the dish, the Rays could have a future contributor on hand. Remember, this is a position where the expectations are so low that 2009 catcher Dioner Navarro could put up an OPS of .583 and still only be -.1 WAR.

How can we put perspective on Ashley's 57 at-bat-sample size in an extreme offensive league without discarding it entirely as some suggest? Ashley spent 2009 playing in A+, AA, and the AFL. I calculated the average team OPS in each league to create league factors based around the middle number which was AA. Then I weighted Ashley's OPS in each league by both the league factor and by the percentage of Ashley's total plate appearances for the season. This allowed for Ashley's 2009 weighted OPS of .728:

	LgOps	Weights	OPS	PA	%PA	Weighted OPS
AA	0.711	1	0.644	139	31.4%	0.203
A+	0.684	1.037975	0.678	236	53.4%	0.376
AFL	0.790	0.888889	1.113	67	15.2%	0.150
			Total PA	442		0.728

Despite the offensive nature of the league and small sample size of at-bats, we can also compare historical catcher data from the AFL going back to 2005. In an offensive league the numbers should be inflated for all hitters so it is still an apples-to-apples comparison. Below is a table of all AFL catchers since 2005 with a minimum of 50 at-bats and an OPS of .800 or better. The age column refers to the catcher's age at the time of his AFL appearance. Before and Pre-OPS refer to the catcher's immediate preceding season prior to the AFL. Now and Post-OPS refer to the 2009 season. When selecting the level for Pre and Post-AFL, I used the level with the most plate appearances for the season.

Name	Year	Age	AFLOPS	AB	Before	Pre-OPS	Now	Post-OPS
Tyler Flowers	2008	22	1.433	75	A+	0.921	AA	0.993
Matt McBride	2009	24	1.152	66	AA	0.728	???	???
Michael McKenry	2008	23	1.126	84	A+	0.827	AA	0.831
Nevin Ashley	2009	25	1.113	67	A+	0.678	???	???
Jason Jaramilo	2006	24	1.027	66	AA	0.708	MLB	0.673
Cole Armstrong	2008	25	0.968	97	AA	0.706	AAA	0.714
AJ Ellis	2006	25	0.966	52	AA	0.676	AAA	0.813
Mark Wagner	2008	24	0.916	59	AA	0.666	AA	0.887
Curtis Thigpen	2006	23	0.892	88	AA	0.79	AAA	0.577
Raul Padron	2007	23	0.864	50	A+	0.678	AA	0.717
Bobby Wilson	2006	23	0.851	56	AA	0.778	AAA	0.714
Jeff Clement	2007	24	0.847	52	AAA	0.86	AAA	0.845
Matt Wieters	2008	22	0.845	73	A+	1.024	MLB	0.753
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2005	20	0.825	73	A+	0.913	MLB	0.661
Jeff Clement	2005	22	0.824	67	A	0.908	AAA	0.845
Josh Thole	2008	22	0.82	69	A+	0.808	AA	0.816

With the exception of Curtis Thigpen, this list has put up respectable numbers following their Arizona Autumns. The two players that jump out as being most comparable to Ashley are A.J. Ellis are Mark Wagner, given their age and mediocre offensive numbers preceding the AFL.

A.J. Ellis has spent most of the past two seasons in AAA with the Dodgers organization. He has displayed a keen eye walking 15.4% and 18.4% during that time period. He also had a BABIP of .372 the past 2 seasons. The knock on Ellis is that his lack of power (ISO .060) will erode his walking skills in the big leagues. Nonetheless his past 2 seasons his slash lines have been .321/.436/.546 and .314/.438/.375. I don't know of his defensive ability but if he is of average talent, he would have played for the Rays by now.

Mark Wagner seems to have followed Ashley's path as well displaying early success at the A levels before stalling out with a .666 OPS in AA in 2008. During his repeat campaign for the Red Sox AA affiliate following his AFL success that number jumped to .887, with both OBP and SLG jumping over .100.

Catchers are notoriously late bloomers at the plate in the minors. Ashley may fade away quietly, but there remains a chance he can become an average bat for a catcher to go with his excellent arm and subjectively well thought of defensive ability. Nevin Ashley could become the Gabe Gross of catchers. All I ask, is that you don't close the book on Nevin Ashley just yet.

Conventional Wisdom and Such

2009-11-18T16:15:21Z

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

This has been a very odd week.

On Sunday night, about, eh, six hours before our interview with Andrew Friedman went up, Bill Belichick stole the hearts and minds (okay, some of the minds) of the sporting culture by deciding against punting. Whether you agree with the decision or not, the move was a mark of innovation in a league stricken with homogenous talents, payrolls, schemes, and thought processes. The move was outlandish and unconventional and absolutely beautiful because of it.

In some ways I fancy myself a masochist, so Monday night I chose to watch Sportscenter and the Monday Night Countdown programming by my own desire to see the reaction of the two dozen ESPN personalities. Most wrote the move off as moronic and foolish, others called out Belichick's ego, Teddy Bruschi said the defense would suffer from this decision, and so on. Ron Jaworski seemed to be the only person who dug beyond clichés or unquantifiable hyperbole in his explanation.

I promise this is related to the Rays, just give me a moment.

Monday was a fantastic battle between the guys who preach results based analysis and the process based analysts. The latter entered swinging machetes of paper -- well, mostly hyperlinked chains -- at the ignorant tree's trunk to no avail because their bark is stronger than their bark. Fingers were jammed in ears, exclamation points and shift keys were abused, and some people discovered how to do simple probabilities for the first time since statistics class.

All of this got me to thinking about conventional wisdom and how silly some are to rely solely upon it. Not to beat this Belichick thing to death, and this is an admittedly unoriginal point to raise, but if they do convert, aren't all of these guys slamming him now suddenly praising him for having brass ones and the confidence in the best quarterback ever? Such is results based analysis. Decisions aren't pass or fail - or at least shouldn't be evaluated as such if you want your analysis taken seriously. Yeah, the play failed, but was the idea behind the play good? People who know more about football, down conversions, and field position think so.

Not every move has to be made with the hopes of raging against the machine or being a raisin in the sun. That's another level of extremity that few should hope for. But a little bit of creativity never hurt anyone - the NFL should keep this in mind. Really.

That leads me to Friedman and the Rays front office in general. Whether you thought he was preaching gospel or withholding trade secrets in the interview is irrelevant. He doesn't have to come out and say "Take your RBI and shove ‘em" in a Theo Epstein manner because the moves he signs on with say this for him. He doesn't have to divulge anything, and as fans, we shouldn't want him to. Jonah Keri is a great guy and a spectacular writer, but if he puts something in his Rays book (releasing sometime in 2011 - what? I'm about to threaten his health, the least I can do is pub him) that hurts the Rays' future pursuits of talent then, well, I can't print what I hope happens to him because of legal prosecution and such.

The Rays take unconventional to entirely new levels. Public opinion seems to matter not in the least on any move they make. Whether the move turns out great or not so great, this unit sticks to their guns because they are confident in their processes. Look at the Scott Kazmir trade. They were a bit lucky that most became disillusioned with Kazmir after some questionable starts and comments on the fan base, but still most saw it as a salary dump and a sickening waving of the white flag.

Did the Rays care? Doesn't look like it.

Keri and I have held some random rosterbation sessions where some pretty outlandish stuff was proposed and the end result is always "Well, if any team would do that ..." and it's true. Okay, maybe the Rays won't be trading [Player X] for [Player Y] anytime soon, but I doubt there's a more open-minded and creative front office in baseball.

Tommy wrote about moving Carlos Pena earlier and with most teams you would laugh at it. Oh, they're going to trade the league leader in home runs, a fan favorite, the leader in :)%, and a great clubhouse presence? Sure. With the Rays, I can almost guarantee they've talked about potential scenarios. Buster Olney supposedly reported the Rays had internal discussions (buzzword!) about moving Ben Zobrist to the outfield and signing Orlando Hudson. Sounds insane. If Hudson is offered arbitration it would probably be insane. Yet, how many teams say "Zobrist is coming off one of the best seasons in baseball at second base and maybe we're better off by using his flexibility and signing a new second baseman instead of signing a new right fielder"?

When the same people who bleed convention criticized the Rays for hiring a bunch of Wall Street kids I would never have imagined saying they were right about something. But here we sit and they were absolutely correct when they said these guys aren't "baseball guys". They aren't tied to conventional wisdom or tradition. I can go for that like fourth and two.

Should The Rays Trade Carlos Pena?

2009-11-18T11:00:16Z

One of the larger topics this offseason has centered on what to do with Carl Crawford. Now that the Rays have picked up his $10 million dollar option they are left with a couple scenarios: trading him now, trading him later, signing him to an extension, or let him walk and take the compensatory pick(s). While CC is and will remain the hot topic for the unforeseeable future, I have been wondering about the Rays other $10 million dollar man, Carlos Pena.

Honestly, I try and to not play favorites, but how can you not when it comes to Carlos Pena? Nevertheless, I've come to the realization that maybe in addition to Crawford, it's time to explore the possibility of a Pena move. Of course, one isn't really reliant on the other and both, one, or none of them could be traded anyway.

Obligatory disclaimer: This is merely speculation. The Rays haven't said they are actively shopping Pena.

First, let's look at the most important fact; Pena will make $10.25 million dollars in 2010. This makes him the team's highest paid player. However, in terms of WAR, he was narrowly the seventh best Rays player this past season. If you want to make the argument that his season was cut short due to injury, Pena was not cracking the top five for the Rays regardless of a full season. This doesn't mean he wasn't valuable; a 2.6 WAR is worth $11.9 million dollars and Pena made $8 million, but the Rays highest paid player shouldn't be their fifth, sixth or seventh best player on the team.

Pena's three-year WAR average has him at a 4.2. If he is able to produce that at $10 million dollars then that is a bargain, but that average is also heavily skewed by his 6.2 WAR in the 2007 season. After posting a 3.8 in 2008, Pena was again down to 2.6 in 2009.

Offensively, there is little doubt that Pena can, and will, still mash. The player friendly projection of Bill James has him slugging .498 in 2010 and I think that may be a bit on the low side. It's the other portions of Pena's game that had me worried. While the Power remains, his patience at the plate and his sharp batting eye have wandered slightly the past few seasons.

After posting a lovely 17.4% walk rate in 2007, Pena's BB% has declined in the past few seasons. Coinciding with the decline in walks is an increase in strikeouts, and not surprisingly an increase in swings on pitches out of the zone.

	BB%	K%	O-Swing%
2007	17.4	29	19.8
2008	16.4	33.9	20.8
2009	15.6	34.6	23.6

Walking 15% of the time is still pretty good, but the K's are at an all time high. Even though we know this is part of his game, it's still not a trend you want to see.

Defensively, Pena had a pretty rough season finishing with a UZR of -4.6. However, his three year average is ever so slightly above average at 0.4. Odds are he will be right at average or slightly below in the field next year, unless 2009 was just the beginning of a defensive avalanche.

Beyond the high salary and some production concerns, there are also the compensation issue. Trading Pena won't net the same type of return as Crawford and nobody should expect such a thing. However, for a team who's looking for power, can accept a few flaws, and afford the price tag, Pena is very attractive option even if it's for a one year rental. I'm not going to speculate on a return, but I'm guessing the Rays could do pretty well in any potential deal.

What I do want to look at is the return if Pena is retained and then walks at the end of the season. According to Eddie Bajek's Elias Projections, Carlos Pena is a type B free agent. Remember, this is based on his 2008 and 2009 seasons. When/if Pena hits the market next season, his compensation will be based on 2009 and 2010. Usually players who have declined over a three-year period while getting older don't improve from one season to the next, however, there are always exceptions. Nonetheless, a Type-A ranking for first basemen doesn't come easy; none of the 2009 free agent first basemen have Type-A status and only Mark Teixiera earned it in 2008.

I have no idea how the Elias rankings are created, but over the two years before he hit free agency, Teixeira averaged a slash line of .307/.406/.557 with nearly 32 home runs. Over the last two seasons, Pena has averaged .237/.367/.515 with 35 bombs. I'm going to assume that to obtain a Type-A status, Pena's going to need to regain his 2007 form and then some, which is unlikely. What's more than likely to happen is Pena will retain Type-B status and his former team will receive a supplemental pick instead of the potential two picks a Type-A would.

This raises another issue. Getting draft picks for potential free agents is not necessarily a good thing for the Rays. Sure, adding young talent is always welcomed, but even late first round picks cost money (see LeVon Washington). The Rays already have four high picks in next year's draft. If they aren't able to sign all four they will receive an addittional compensatory pick(s) in 2011. This will be in addition to their regular pick and any potential picks received from free agents with "type" status( Crawford, Pena, etc.). That could end up as a lot of money for unproven talent; or on a few picks not wasted, per se, but picks not maximized due to budget restrictions.

Once more, Pena is still a good player and even at $10 million dollars should still provide value, but for a Rays team looking to cut corners in places to improve others, a look in his direction is smart business. Replacing Pena wouldn't be easy, but it wouldn't be as hard as say, replacing a Carl Crawford.

For example, Russell Branyan is a free agent. Coming off a 2.8 WAR season, Branyan could give you similar production for probably half the cost. Branyan is also looking for a two-year deal, so he may not be ideal. The Rays could go the platoon route and find a dance partner for Willy Aybar. Another former Ray, Eric Hinske could work well with Aybar. Or the Rays could go the unconventional route and move Ben Zobrist to first allowing Sean Rodriguez to get the bulk of the time at second base. I could go on rosterbating, but you get the point.

There are the intangibles: leadership, smile%, pre-game dances, and between pitch mound meetings, but in terms of things we can measure, exploring a deal involving Pena seems prudent for a team that is constantly working around the big payroll elephant in the room.

To that end, Bannister introduced Greinke to FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the statistic...

2009-11-18T03:27:32Z

To that end, Bannister introduced Greinke to FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the statistic Greinke named Tuesday as his favorite. It is a formula that measures how well a pitcher performed, regardless of his fielders. According to fangraphs.com, Greinke had the best FIP in the majors.

"That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible," Greinke said.

Zack Greinke is smart.

The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft

2009-11-17T12:30:13Z

The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006: Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.

Justin Ruggiano Takes A Trip To The Swing Mechanic Jaime Cevallos

2009-11-16T23:48:27Z

View full size photo »

Jaime Cevallos is a well known man around these parts. As co-star of the Zobrist code, he is widely credited for being part of the process that turned Ben Zobrist into Zorilla. Well if Cevallos is as good as advertised, we should be hearing a lot more from the "swing mechanic." In addition to working with Arizona Fall League breakout, Nevin Ashley, Cevallos has added Rays outfielder Justin Ruggiano to his growing roster of clients.

Ruggiano, 27, is pretty much at the same point in his career that Zobrist was when he and Cevallos connected. Never really a prospect, Ruggiano has accumulated nearly 100 unimpressive plate appearances with the Rays since 2007. He is mostly remembered for his fantastic game saving catch in late 2008 than anything at the plate.

A member of the Rays 40 man roster, Ruggiano, spent the entire 2009 season in the minors hitting .253/.330/.412. The .741 OPS is his lowest at any level (min .130 PA) since joining the Rays in 2006.With the urging of Zobrist, Ruggiano is hoping Cevallos can use his Mkanx system and get the most of out his stroke. "The difference between Jaime and other hitting coaches is that Jaime truly is a swing mechanic," said Ruggiano. "He has the ability to pick apart your swing and get you into the best possible hitting positions."

More on Ruggiano and The Swing Mechanic...

A unique aspect of this partnership, rooted in the Dallas/Fort Worth area in which both reside, is the accountability being taken by Cevallos. Although Cevallos wouldn't get into the specifics of the deal, he did say, "There are bonuses involved based on his performance. It holds me accountable, which is the way I like it."

The pair started working out earlier this month and looking at the roster construction, Ruggiano is facing an uphill battle. Beside incumbent starters Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, the Rays outfield options include: Matt Joyce, Gabe Kapler, Fernando Perez and possibility, but less likely Desmond Jennings (at least early on). Zobrist could also be thrown in the mix if you like.

Many remain skeptical of Cevallos's success, but the only way to see if his teachings are the real deal or not is to increase the sample size. With Zobrist, Ashley, Ruggiano and Cincinnati Reds infielder, Drew Sutton, that size is slowly increasing. Time will tell if success will follow. Good luck to Justin and Jaime.

Tampa Bay Rays VP Andrew Friedman Talks with DRaysBay

2009-11-16T10:00:23Z

Rays VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman Chats With DRaysBay about Carl Crawford, closers and sabermetrics.

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Erik mentioned last week that we are making a strong effort to bring you some more insight from in and around the world of baseball. Whether it's a columnist, player or executive, we hope to bring you more perspective about the Rays than just the DRaysBay staff. Of course, we'll continue with our up to the minute news and our analysis, but hope to bring you fresh views from other sources. This is one of those opportunities.

Recently, I had the privilege of picking the mind behind the Rays moves. In this interview, Rays VP of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman will chat about Carl Crawford's contract status, the status of his own contract as well as the perception of needing a veteran closer among other things. Instead of laying it all out for you, I'll just let Andrew take over from here...

Tommy Rancel: It's never publicized or talked about, but you do not have a contract with the Rays. What is the reason behind that?

Andrew Friedman: My situation here is fairly unique in the industry, but it has never been a source of concern for me. The relationship that I have with Stu and our ownership group is a very positive one, with open dialogue and rigorous thought and questioning. I value it and would expect it to be the case regardless of my contract status.

TR: Processes and results are two things we discuss heavily on the site. Good processes should lead to good results as bad processes are likely to lead to failure. We've heard numerous Rays use the terms process and
results this year. How big of a believer are you in the concept? And is it something that is taught throughout the organization?

AF: We are very focused on the process here. Of course it goes without saying that results are what matter in the end. But there is a lot of luck in this game and a lot of things beyond your control, both on the field and off. The more we concentrate on the things we can control, the better our results will be in the long run.

TR: Along with process/results, we often talk about regression to the mean. As the person in charge of making the moves, how much do you look at regression and things of that nature?

AF: Whenever a player's recent performance is very different from his established level, you have to consider the possibility that he will regress to where he was. Most of the time that is what happens. But often there are reasons to think that the new level of performance might continue, and we have to factor those in too.

TR: Without naming names, a few GMs are on record as saying they don't buy into defensive metrics or they still believe in fielding percentage. You, yourself, have said fielding percentage is the most overrated stat in the game. How is there still that kind of divide among peers with the amount of information that is not only public but held privately throughout an organization?

AF: Baseball is a tough game and there is no one path to success. Teams have won in many different ways, with different organizational philosophies. Evaluating defense is one of the more difficult things that we do and we know that the numbers cannot tell you everything. We try to have a sound process that makes sense and to stay open-minded to many sources of information.

TR: As one of the more sabermetric organizations in baseball, how do you feel about the publicly used stats like Defensive efficiency, UZR, Dewan's +/- and so on?

AF: This is a good time to be a baseball fan as there is a ton of data in the public sphere with a lot of validity. In a general sense, some of the publicly used methods are similar to what we do internally; of course, we also have trained eyes whose evaluations play an important role in our process.

TR: In addition to defensive metrics, PITCH F/X has revolutionized the way we analyze pitchers. With one of the pioneers of PITCH F/X, Josh Kalk, part of the organization, what are your thoughts on PITCH F/X?

AF: PITCH f/x can be a great source of information. The key is using it correctly, and in harmony with the other tools we have to evaluate players. With the amount of available information, the challenge often has less to do with finding more knowledge, and more to do with figuring out how to use it properly.

TR: There have been many stories written from mainstream media about the Rays "need" for a veteran closer and this being a major cause for concern. What are your thoughts about this and stated bullpen roles in general?

AF: An effective bullpen, especially at the end of the game, is a crucial part of almost every successful team, and it's a priority of ours this winter as it is every year. In our financial situation it is difficult to commit big dollars to an established veteran closer in his prime. But I think that if you look at recent history, the expensive veteran route has not always worked even for those clubs who could afford that luxury. Younger, less established relievers have been major cogs in winning teams, and great setup men and closers have come from many different places.

TR: Knowing how unpredictable and volatile bullpens are from year to year what is your take on long term contracts for relief pitchers?

AF: Whenever we enter into a long-term contract, there is risk. Our margin of error is very slim. When we make that sort of investment we need to feel comfortable both with the type of player and the type of person in whom we're investing. The volatility that you see in relief pitching is definitely a factor whenever we consider a long-term deal there.

TR: You've said that each draft is almost independent of the last. However with two extra picks next year because of the happenings this year, there is sort of a hangover. What lessons did you guys learn from this year's draft that will carry over into future drafts, if any?

AF:It was disappointing not to be able to sign our top two picks but we feel great about the talent we were able to bring into the organization (plus having the two extra picks in the 2010 draft). We took a calculated risk with our first two picks. With (Kenny) Diekroeger, we knew full well that there was a decent chance we would not be able to sign him, but that, at the very least, we would have the protection of same-slot compensation which is why taking him in the second round made more sense than the fourth.

We are really excited about the guys we did sign and think we still infused our system with a lot of talent.

TR: We couldn't help but notice the drafting of multiple players coming of various injuries in this draft. Was that a market inefficiency?

AF: It was not a deliberate focus of ours in this draft. That said, we have a lot of confidence in our medical team, both in terms of their involvement in the draft process and their ability to take care of our players once we sign them. The work that our scouts do is equally important in making sure we select players who are dedicated to getting and staying healthy.

TR: How big of a difference going from 1/1 overall to picking near the end of the round in just a year? Does your stance on going over slot money change because of the difference?

AF: Our focus is on selecting the best player whether we pick first or 30th. That said, sometimes players will set a price that's much higher than what we feel is appropriate for them, and that's something we have to factor in.

TR: For two straight deadlines the Rays have chosen not to make a move at the traditional trade deadline. However, the team has been active after during the waiver trading period. Is this another market inefficiency that teams are ignoring?

AF: I wouldn't characterize that as a market inefficiency. We are always considering any kind of move that can improve our club, and like every team, we've discussed many deals prior to the trade deadline that didn't ultimately happen. It's a matter of when in the year something lines up that makes sense. In the past two years, that has been in August.

TR: I know there is an organizational policy to not discuss on going contract negotiations, but it's no secret that Carl Crawford is coming up on the end of his contract. What are your plans going forward with CC?

AF: Carl has been a big part of our team for a very long time. It would be great to have him in left field for many more years and we're hopeful that something lines up there that makes sense for both us and CC.

TR: Are payroll restrictions as big of a factor as they seem to us on the outside looking in?

AF: The simple fact is that our market size, our stadium and our attendance don't generate the kind of revenue that our rivals have. We are as committed to winning as they are, but we have to operate differently because of that.

TR: There have been a few cases where a Rays player has gone outside the organization for additional help: Ben Zobrist training with Jaime Cevallos; Matt Garza and others visiting with Ken Ravizza; and more recently Scott Kazmir consulting with Rick Peterson. What is your feeling about a player going outside the organization for additional help?

AF:We'll be supportive of anything that helps our players. In many cases, when they have worked with outside help it has been with our blessing or even at our suggestion. In fact, to give just one example, Ken Ravizza worked with both our major and minor leaguers routinely throughout the 2009 season. As long as it squares with our beliefs on what's best for a player's future, we love to see our players so committed to getting better.

A tremendous hat tip goes out to Andrew Friedman (and his staff) for being so accessible as well as open and honest with us. I want to thank Andrew on behalf of the DRaysBay staff and community for granting the interview and giving us his candid, honest answers and opinions.

2010 CHONE Projections

2009-11-15T23:34:31Z

2010 CHONE Projections

Get used to these as well.

Attempting To Explain The Jesse Chavez Home Run Issue

2009-11-15T17:00:27Z

Without the Rays scouting department handing over their report on Jesse Chavez, there is only so much we can tell from the numbers. However, there is some data that might be worth noting. It could be something, but it could just as easily be nothing.

While sifting threw Jesse Chavez's 2009 pitch f/x data, I noticed a little hiccup along the way. A few disclaimers: 1) Small sample size rules apply. It's one season of data and we have been breaking it down into even smaller sizes. 2) Home run rates are volatile from year to year, and even more so for a relief pitcher. 3) Pitch F/X classification aren't always 100% exact so keep that in mind.

But back to the hiccup...

Looking at the overall numbers, it seems Chavez struggled with the long ball this past season. He allowed 11 home runs in 67.1 innings (1.47 HR/9), and a carried relatively large HR/FB of 12.7. That HR/FB is high in its own right, but even more for a neutral pitcher. For comparison, J.P. Howell had the exact same HR/FB rate, but since he gets more ground balls, fewer balls hopped the fence. HR/FB rates fluctuate a lot year-to-year, but alas we only have one full year of data to work with.

After skimming the data, I noticed that seven of the 11 home runs came within a small window. From 7/20-9/21, Chavez made 26 appearances and allowed seven home runs in 25.1 innings. This means he allowed just four homers over the remaining 42 innings. Seven home runs in 25.1 innings gives you a HR/9 of 2.50, while four in 42 innings leaves us with a much more manageable 0.85.

	G	IP	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
7/20-9/21	26	25.1	2.5	2.15	6.45
Rest	47	42	0.85	3.42	6.21

Pitch selection/usage is usually a good place to start when we see fluctuations in a pitcher's numbers. Sure enough, there was a bit of a change in selection between the two data groups. During the home run happy summer, Chavez threw his fastball 69% of the time. This was pretty normal as he threw it 70% of the time during the rest of the year. The real change is in secondary pitches.

	FB%	SL%	CH%
7/20-9/21	69	6	25
Rest	70	11	19

From people familiar with Chavez, we've been told his slider is his real plus pitch. According to Fangraphs pitch values, that observation is confirmed. With a wSL of 4.1, Chavez's slide piece was arguably his best pitch (sss). When things were going well (42 innings), Chavez was throwing the slider between 11-12% of the time. During the same stretch, he was throwing his change up around 19%. However, when the home runs starting flying his slider usage dropped to 6% while his change up rose to 25%.

While his home runs decreased dramatically not everything was perfect. When more sliders were thrown, his BB/9 increased and his K/9 decreased slightly. Normally, this is a bad thing, but I rather give up an extra walk here in order to save a few home runs.

With just this data alone we cannot say that because he threw less sliders and more change ups this magically explains the increase in home runs allowed, but it is something to keep in mind. Also keep in mind that none of the 11 home runs came off of a slider, and in the small sample size of the season he got 15% swinging strikes on the slider; the best of his trio of pitches.

Both teams (Pirates and Rays) have more and better data available and I'm assuming both sides are familiar with the the fluctuation in homers and the change in selection. Maybe there was something physical that prevented him from throwing the pitch during those two months and he corrected it at the end. Maybe that is what Rays saw in Chavez. Regardless of the actual reason, the Rays saw something in him that they liked. I hope we get to see the same.

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 6

2009-11-15T12:00:19Z

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Longoria: Dude, relax, Andy H just said you had the two best starts of the year. Garza: F*$# YEAH ::spit:: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

View full size photo »

This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year. If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system. Let's take a look at the standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts. Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality. Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza. So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29). I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins. Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side. Well, if you're a fan of The Crane, then you won't be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here. First up however...

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

2.01

0.155

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can't chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings. Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we've ever had. He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change. After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th. I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider. This is what I like to see out of James. He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs. See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.59

0.185

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance. He didn't have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance. Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren't sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis). They were rewarded with a CGSO. The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches). He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs. The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is. I like his fastball, because when it's on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties. They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous. I want to make babies with it. Big Nasty's hardest pitch came in the low 120's while maintaining velocity throughout the game. Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it's not like he was completely fresh. At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind. A little bigger, the fastball isn't quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees. Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next. Personally, I can't wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.48

0.084

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter. He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs. In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches. That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.) I love the following chart:

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there. He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate. Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92. Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let's see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.15

0.167

Here's a Matt Garza performance that shows why I'm not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance. Yes, he gave up two runs. After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo. Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd. A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute. Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game. My point is that I don't think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked. This same thing can be applied to James Shields. In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble. Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there. The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end. Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him. He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game. On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%). If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times. I saw two guys just frozen by it's unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman. Garza's day was finished, but he still picked up the win. I found this pretty interesting:

I count 5 K's in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones. Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it). I really like all the contact (or K's) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone. Even the best stuff means nothing if you can't control AND COMMAND it. It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1) Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.67

0.93

0.068

This shall forever be known as the "Jacoby Ellsbury's Parents Should Never Have Met" game. Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn't appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time. The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag. Matty didn't throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

Now I'm no artist, so the ovals aren't exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that's in the overlap area of this chart. Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout. Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn't gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it's way right in there. Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can't confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you're going to find great success. Brooks has Garza's fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball. That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant. I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia's eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone. Though he didn't get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone. This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can't form an opinion on whether it'll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA's:

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly. He won't always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010. We've seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range. Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters. For the team's sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we've only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009. I hope you enjoyed my labor of love. Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Shields

Niemann

Garza

Price

Davis

Kazmir

Sonnanstine

130

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order. In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2's with Price a clear #3 starter. Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one's gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps. The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis. We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample. If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we're looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos. Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season. So many games get played that it's easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made. It's free-of-charge, and I've only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Tampa Bay Rays Sign R.J. Swindle to a Minor League Deal with Spring Training Invite

2009-11-14T17:17:03Z

What was once lost is gained again. A source close to the situation has informed us that Swindle is indeed back in the organization on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

As you can expect, his velocity will not scare many batters. His average fastball sits in the low-80s and tops out below 85. He throws a smorgasbord of complementary pitches though, some that even confuse the pitchx classification algorithm into calling them "unknowns". This is probably because pitchfx isn't used to seeing pitches below 60 miles per hour, but Swindle threw a few as low as 52 miles per hour. Yeah, he's not lighting up guns, he's just dulling the batters to sleep by throwing ridiculously slow curveballs (at least, that's what they resemble).

In a small sample size of a little under 170 pitches last season Swindle saw a fair number of whiffs on his change-up (38 throws, 3 whiffs), four-seam fastballs (39 thrown, 3 whiffs), and sliders (23 thrown, 2 whiffs) and for his Majors career has a league average contact rate around 80%. In the minors Swindle has consistently recorded doubled digit whiff rates, including an impressive 11.8% in 2008 and 11.1% last year in Nashville.

His real name is Robert, and his career minor league splits include a 42% groundball rate against lefties, 13.8 strikeouts per nine, 2.09 walks per nine, and zero home runs allowed against 255 batters. He hasn't been too shabby against righties either, but for now at least, Swindle should be entrenched in a LOOGY battle with Randy Choate (and whomever else) come spring training.

Here's some more pitchfx data fun with Swindle's 2009:

Pitch	Slowest
CH	69.5
FA	81.3
FC	55.2
FF	80.7
FT	80.7
SL	69.2
UN	52.3

Note that most pitchers seem to throw intentional balls around 60 miles per hour, and that Swindle is throwing regular pitches at a slower rate and seeing success. On the flip side:

Pitch	Fastest
CH	80.9
FA	83.9
FC	78.2
FF	83.4
FT	82.1
SL	82.5
UN	54.8

His whiffs by velocity (Justin Morneau is the "slow ball" whiffer by the way):

52.9	1
70	1
70.1	2
71.1	1
71.2	1
72.6	1
72.7	1
73.2	1
73.6	1
81.5	1
82.1	1
82.8	1

I can't think of many pitchers with a 30 MPH spread in pitches whiffed at.

All of his pitches movement:

And his release points (hint: he's a sidearmer):

Past Trade Evaluation: Remember Aubrey Huff?

2009-11-14T12:00:34Z

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Thank this man for Zorilla, although wow, what an awkward photo (AP Photo/Nick Wass)