DRaysBay: Front Page Posts

Recap

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:06:15 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Poll

Would you support the Rays signing Barry Bonds?

7/24: RAYS (59-41) at Kansas City (45-57)

Patrick L. Kennedy — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:00:08 -0000

RAYS at Kansas City

8:10; RAYS TV/ION
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

ERA

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

OPS

WHIP

G/F

P/IP

RAYS

RH M. Garza

110.0

3.68

113

6.14

2.70

2.27

0.90

.657

1.20

1.04

16.23

RH G. Meche

126.2

4.55

6.68

3.06

2.19

0.99

.740

1.35

0.97

17.29

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tyler Walker May Return?

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:45:54 -0000

Per Henry Schulman the Rays are apparently interested (again) in their former closer:(Hat tip to MLBTR)

Tampa Bay, concerned about the health of Troy Percival, has some interest in trading for Tyler Walker, a source said. The Giants dealt Walker to the Rays in 2006. He saved 10 games for the Rays before blowing out his elbow

Walker is boasting a career high GB/FB ratio of 1.32 and has a career average just over 1. 45% of the balls put into play have been on the ground, encouraging yet his nearly 16% HR/FB ratio is terrifying. He's not a relief ace by any means, and I don't know how much of an upgrade he'd be over some other internal options.

Street: Being offered to Red Sox, Rays, White Sox

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 02:40:06 -0000

Street: Being offered to Red Sox, Rays, White Sox

This per a Gammons segment on Baseball Tonight.

There is no link

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:18:07 -0000

There is no link

Rocco Baldelli played three innings in right field tonight for Montgomery.

Blake Update

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:31:18 -0000

The Dallas Morning News has confirmed what I reported yesterday; the Rays are interested in Casey Blake:

The Rays have reportedly joined the Twins, Dodgers and Mets as clubs interested in acquiring Cleveland's Casey Blake. Like the Mets, the Rays envision Blake in the outfield and if he were to end up with either of those clubs, it can only help drive the Hank Blalock market.

Blake didn't start in today's game but entered in the 8th as a pinch hitter for third baseman Andy Marte.

Minor League Whatever: 7/22

SaberToothedPie — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:51:57 -0000

AAA: Durham - 3 Lehigh Valley - 4

Ben Hendrickson struggled, allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. Dan Johnson hit another HR to account for all 3 of Durham's runs.

Hendrickson - 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8H, 2BB, 2K

Dan Johnson - 3-4, HR, 3 RBI

Fernando perez - 3-4, 2B

AA: Montgomery - 9 Tennessee - 6

Struggling start for Jino Gonzales, giving up 10 H and 4 runs in 5 innings, but he still got the win. Rocco went 1-4 with a walk.

Jino Gonzales - 5IP, 10H, 4ER, 5:2 K:BB

Rocco Baldelli - 1-4, BB

Rashad Eldridge - 1-5, HR

A+: Lakeland - 6 Vero Beach - 4

Chuck Tiffany could only muster 2 innings, giving up 2 ER and then Wade Townsend(Seriously) gave 3 Scoreless innings.

Nevin Ashley - 1-5, HR

Wade Townsend - 3 IP, 1H, 0ER, 2K

A: Colombus - 5 Lexington - 2

Good start by Jeremy Hall, 6IP 2 ER. Stephen Vogt went 3-4 with a double and an RBI, and Catcher Mike Mccormick hit a HR.

Hall - 6IP, 2 ER. 8H, 1:0 K:BB ratio

Stephen Vogt - 3-4, 2B, RBI

Mike Mccormick - 2-4, HR

A-: PPD Due to rain, will play Doubleheader

R: Canceled due to rain

19. Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has ...

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:48:35 -0000

19. Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has a lot of room to grow. One reason I really like making these lists is to see guys like Longoria (unproven young players with all-around games) fall next to guys like Berkman (gritty veterans with big bats and MVP campaigns). Do you think Ed Wade would trade Berkman for Longoria? No way, although he probably should, especially considering Longoria’s contract.

Sky's take on the top 25 position players as of right now. Two Rays make appearances, guess who the other one is.

Barty back, Zobrist down

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:35:55 -0000

Barty back, Zobrist down

Yay!

A team source said the Rockies have asked for Rays Double-A starter Wade Hendrickson [sic], the Y...

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:44:12 -0000

A team source said the Rockies have asked for Rays Double-A starter Wade Hendrickson [sic], the Yankees' Ian Kennedy, the Red Sox's Clay Buchholz or Mets minor-leaguer Jon Niese. Florida is monitoring Fuentes but is reluctant to part with a young starter. The price for Fuentes has left teams taking a longer look at Oakland's Huston Street.

I assume he meant Wade Davis, but Davis is now in AAA, so maybe Jeremy Hellickson? Either way, that's a hefty price for a soon to be free agent reliever.

7/23: OAK (52-48) at RAYS (58-41)

Patrick L. Kennedy — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:30:07 -0000

Oakland at RAYS

12:40; FSN Florida
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

ERA

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

OPS

WHIP

G/F

P/IP

OAK

LH G. Smith

114.0

3.79

102

5.92

4.11

1.44

0.87

.688

1.32

0.81

16.31

RAYS

RH J. Shields

129.1

3.69

112

7.24

1.67

4.33

0.97

.691

1.14

1.16

14.71

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rays Target: Casey Blake?

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:21:11 -0000

A league source has informed me that the Rays attention is now on Cleveland Indians cornerman Casey Blake due in part to the high price for Xavier Nady. I'm not sure if a deal is close or even imminent between the Rays and Indians, but Blake is a 34 -- soon to be 35 -- year old free agent following this season with a .279 GPA and an OPS+ of 118 that would place him behind only Eric Hinske and Evan Longoria. In some ways Blake is essentially a right-handed Hinske, although he's likely a slightly better fielder.

Here's what I had to say about Blake last week:

Casey Blake Corner Fielder Cleveland: signed through 2008 at 6.1 million.
What would a trade post be without a little speculation? Try this for instance, why did Andrew Friedman pick the Cleveland series to watch the team live for a few games? Maybe it's a pure coincidence, but with some murmurs last weekend about the Rays being interested in Blake the Indians definitely obliged by placing him in the middle of the order and at first three of the games with a cameo at third. Blake isn't really what the Rays are looking for - considering he's essentially a right handed Eric Hinske - but if he's used as purely as Jonny Gomes replacement he's not bad; he sees over four pitches per plate appearance and has a decent grasp on the zone. He's only worth a win a season, which is reasonable considering his price shouldn't be too great, and he's a type B free agent, meaning the Rays would get a first round supplemental pick if they decide to let him walk which they probably should, considering Blake turns 35 in late August.

7/22: OAK (51-48) at RAYS (58-40)

Patrick L. Kennedy — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:00:07 -0000

Oakland at RAYS

7:10; RAYS TV/ION
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

ERA

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

OPS

WHIP

G/F

P/IP

OAK

LH D. Braden

15.0

4.80

7.20

4.80

1.50

0.60

.804

1.60

0.67

16.73

RAYS

RH A. Sonnanst.

114.0

4.58

5.45

1.58

3.45

0.87

.790

1.37

1.10

15.10

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BJ Upton's Power (or lack thereof)

Peter Bendix — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:54:37 -0000

BJ Upton has been a very productive player for the Rays this season, both offensively and defensively. This is not intended to bash Bossman at all, but rather to ask the opinion of everyone here regarding this question:

Where is his power?

Here are some stats:

Upton is hitting the ball in the air less often this year (30.2% of the time) than last year (37.4% of the time). His LD% is exactly the same, meaning Upton is hitting more grounders than before. Additionally, whereas last year 19.8% of his fly balls became homers, this year that is down to 7.6%.

Upton is being more selective this year - he's swinging at 5% fewer pitches out of the strike zone (although he is making contact 20% more often when he does swing at balls), and swinging at 3% fewer pitches in the strike zone. His contact rate is up 7%, and, predictably, his walk rate is up (he has the same amount of walks this year as he did last year, despite having 134 fewer plate appearances), and his strikeout rate is down.

Interestingly, per his spray chart on MLB.com, it does indeed appear that Upton isn't pulling the ball often (check out how many fly ball outs went to right field, as well as the spread of where his singles fell). However, this is no different than last year, suggesting to me that BJ's propensity to go to the opposite field this season isn't directly related to his decline in homers this year - since he's no more likely to go oppo this year than last.

He is once again not showing any split between hitting lefties and righties.

I'm inclined to say that this is a 23-year-old undergoing a combination of bad luck and regression. Furthermore, it appears that his plate discipline is improving, which bodes well for his long-term outlook (especially since his plate discipline was already pretty good). If I had to guess, I'd say that Upton's power outage is simply a fluke of a small sample size (similarly, last year's power outburst may have been somewhat of a fluke as well), and that, as a 23-year-old with excellent plate discipline and the ability to hit for a solid average, Upton is likely to improve his power output in years to come.

What do you think?

Alternate History Revisited?

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:50:24 -0000

From MLBTR, apparently the Braves might be calling on behalf of Mark Teixeira, per CBS Sportsline:

Atlanta officials insist that no decision has yet been made, and that as of yet they haven't offered Teixeira to anyone. They say that their inclination is to go for it, but they also admit that they've been making lists of possible Teixeira trading partners.

Boston is on the list, and so are the Angels and Rays. The Braves still think Arizona could become involved, too -- if they put Teixeira on the market.

If you'll remember back to that faithful 2001 draft where the Rays were choosing third the team was forced to take Dewon Brazelton after missing out on a top two pick thanks to a canceled game (thanks hurricane season!). Teixeira's agent Scott Boras advised the Minnesota Twins and the Rays alike to not select his client or otherwise face wasting a pick. Teixeira now sits a few months from free agency in which he'll almost certainly poach a contract nearly tripling Carlos Pena's 24 million dollar deal from a team in New York or someone like Seattle.

Without stating the issues in trading and re-signing prices Teixeira is a very good ballplayer, but honestly there is no way this makes sense for the Rays unless the Braves are simply dumping him, and honestly why should they?

Bartlett to Return Soon

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:20:39 -0000

From the Tampa Tribune:

ST. PETERSBURG - He doesn't expect to be quite back to full speed, but SS Jason Bartlett believes he will be ready to come off the disabled list when the Rays open a seven-game road trip Thursday at Kansas City.

Bartlett hasn't played since early July, and it's interesting to see the zone play data as Zobrist approaches 150 innings. Zobrist has only made two out of zone plays while Bartlett has 29 in 500+ more innings. Of the others to play shortstop for the Rays this season; Elliot Johnson, Andy Cannizaro, Evan Longoria, and Reid Brignac, none made an out of zone play. Clearly Bartlett's range will be welcomed back with open arms by the Rays pitching staff.

Vero Beach righthander Matt Walker has been suspended 50 games for violating baseball’s drug poli...

SaberToothedPie — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:21:16 -0000

Vero Beach righthander Matt Walker has been suspended 50 games for violating baseball’s drug policy. In his case, he tested positive for amphetamines. The 21-year-old Walker was the Rays’ 10th-round pick in 2004. In 22 appearances this season, Walker has gone 4-7 with a 4.86 ERA.

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/tampabaycom/blogs/rays/~3/341907501/vero-pitcher-ge.html

7/21: OAK (51-47) at RAYS (57-40)

Patrick L. Kennedy — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:00:08 -0000

Oakland at RAYS

7:10; FSN Florida
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

ERA

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

HR/9

OPS

WHIP

G/F

P/IP

OAK

LH D. Eveland

113.1

3.49

110

5.88

4.45

1.32

0.32

.677

1.40

1.60

15.82

RAYS

LH S. Kazmir

83.0

3.04

136

9.87

3.36

2.94

0.87

.662

1.17

0.65

17.48

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Third Base Fielding - Longoria Is Good

skyking162 — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:23:14 -0000

The following shenanigans not only demonstrate evidence of Longoria's awesomeness in the field, they're a good way to demonstrate that advanced fielding metrics don't bite.

I'm using both zone rating data from the Hardball Times and and ESPN, because their data come from different companies (BIS and STATS, respectively). I'm going to compute runs saved compared to average for both data sets and then average them together.

A zone rating is simply the percentage of balls hit into a player's zone of responsibility that he turns into outs. "Zone of responsibility" is pretty arbitrary, and is determined by combining all the little zone on the field that have their balls turned into outs at least 50% of the time (across all players). BIS also reports out-of-zone (OOZ) plays made to the Hardball Times, which is great. The best way to those is to count them the same as in-zone plays made and keep the denominator the same (balls hit into the zone).

An example of the BIS calculation (STATS is the same but without the extra OOZ step):

Evan Longoria has made 116 plays on balls in zone and he's had 160 balls hit into his zone. His zone rating (or RZR as they call it) is just 116/160 = .712. If you include Longo's 33 OOZ plays, his ratio is calculated as (116+33)/160 = .914. This number could be above 1 (see Scott Rolen), but that doesn't matter. Since the zones of responsibility are pretty arbitrary, the absolute rating has little meaning -- you can't compare a second baseman's zone rating to a shortstop's. All we care about is Longo's performance number compared to the other third basemen.

The average third baseman has a ratio of .859 for the BIS data. Longoria's obviously better than average. To convert the difference into plays, calculate how many plays Longoria has made compared to how many plays the average third baseman would make in the same number of chances: 160 * (.914 - .859) = 8.96, or about 9 extra plays. (That's on the same scale as John Dewan's +/- number, by the way.)

To convert to runs, we need to know how many runs each extra play is worth. You can get really close just by comparing the linear weights value of an out and a single: .5 - -.3 = .8 runs (yes, that's half a run minus a negative three-tenths of a run). So Longoria's 9 extra plays are worth 9 * .8 = 7.2 runs. That's about three-quarters of a win better than average. Pretty good, although STATS has him just about league-average.

I ran the same calculations for each full-time third baseman, did it again with the STATS data, and then averaged the two. (Since ESPN doesn't report ZR chances, I used the RZR chances to weight the STATS ZR.) Here are the results:

NAME               STATS  BIS   AVG
Scott Rolen, Tor    10    21    16
Adrian Beltre, Sea   7    19    13
Chipper Jones, Atl   6    15    11
Jack Hannahan, Oak  -1    12     6
Blake DeWitt, LA     2    7      5
Joe Crede, CWS       3    5      4
Mike Lowell, Bos     6    2      4
Evan Longoria, TB    0    7      4
Troy Glaus, StL      2    4      3
Pedro Feliz, Phi     7    -4     2
David Wright, NYM   -3    6      2
Alex Rodriguez, NYY  2    1      1
Aramis Ramirez, ChC -4    4      0
Jose Castillo, SF   -1    -3    -2
Bill Hall, Mil      -1    -6    -4
Garrett Atkins, Col -1    -7    -4
Jose Bautista, Pit  -5    -3    -4
Melvin Mora, Bal     4    -15   -6
Kevin Kouzmanof, SD -4    -7    -6
Mark Reynolds, Ari  -5    -9    -7
Edwin Encarnac, Cin -5    -12   -9
Alex Gordon, KC     -8    -10   -9
Casey Blake, Cle    -4    -15   -9
Jorge Cantu, Fla    -7    -12   -10

If you're curious, the STATS runs and the BIS runs correlate at r=.65

Finally, as usual, you shouldn't use half a season's worth of stats to judge a player's true skill level. In general, one year of fielding stats are as reliable as two year's worth of hitting stats.

Minor League Whatever: 7/20

SaberToothedPie — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:05:46 -0000

AAA: Durham - 4 Syracuse - 0

Wade Davis made his AAA Debut, and impressed, going 7 IP and not allowing a run. Chris Richard hit a 3 run HR, and Juan Salas got the save

Wade Davis - 7IP, 0ER, 3H, 6K, 3BB.

Chris Richard - 1-3, BB, HR

Brignac - 2-4

Salas - 2IP, 2H, 2K, 0ER

AA: Montgomery - 6 Birmingham - 4

SP Jason Cromer only lasted 4 Innings, despite only giving up 2 ER. Eduardo Morlan got the win Giving 2 scorelss innings of work. Rhyne Hughes had a 2 RBI double.

Cromer - 4IP. 2ER, 2K

Morlan - 2IP, 3H, 2K

Rhyne Hughes - 2-3, BB, 2B

A+: Vero Beach - 5 Lakeland - 4

Vero Beach was on the brink of taking a loss, before having a 3 Run bottom of the 9th to win it, inclding a walk off single by Jairo De La Rosa.

Mike Wlodarcyzk - 2IP, 4K, 1BB, 0ER

Jairo De La Rosa - 2-4, Walk Off Single

A: Colombus - 10 Lexington - 16

Very Rough start for Alex Cobb, Giving up 7R, 3ER, and the pen decided to burn a fire worth 9 more. The one positive was the offense showed up, Maiko loyola went 2-5 with a HR, and Stephen Vogt also went deep.

Alex Cobb - 4 IP, 7R, 3ER, 5H, 2HR, 1BB

Maiko loyola - 2-5, HR

A-: Hudson Valley - 9 Aberdeen - 6

Another game that was decided in the last inning, even though it only went 8. 3 runs in the 8th broke the tie and saved starter Frank De Los Santos from getting a loss. joshua Satow got the save, and Jason Tweedy and Anthony Scelfo were the big cogs in the 8th inning.

De Los Santos - 5.1 IP, 5H, 4ER, 6K, 1BB

Jason Tweedy - 2-3, 2B, HR, 2BB

Jake Jeffries - 1-2, 2B, 2BB, 2RBI

R: Princeton - 1 Greenville - 3

Tough day for the princeton D, commiting 3 errors. Starting pitcher Alexander Colome had a tough day with the D, allowing 2 runs, only 1 Earned. T-Beck went 0-4, and the only run came from a Ramon Novas solo HR.

Alexander Colome - 4.1IP, 3H, 3R, 1ER, 6K, 2BB

Ramon Novas - 1-4, HR

Tim beckham - 0-4

DRaysBay: Front Page Posts

Recap

Would you support the Rays signing Barry Bonds?

7/24: RAYS (59-41) at Kansas City (45-57)

RAYS at Kansas City

8:10; RAYS TV/IONRAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tyler Walker May Return?

Street: Being offered to Red Sox, Rays, White Sox

There is no link

There is no link

Blake Update

Minor League Whatever: 7/22

19. Evan Longoria (2.0 off, 0 pos, .5 field) — Not only is he this good already, but his bat has ...

Barty back, Zobrist down

A team source said the Rockies have asked for Rays Double-A starter Wade Hendrickson [sic], the Y...

7/23: OAK (52-48) at RAYS (58-41)

Oakland at RAYS

12:40; FSN FloridaRAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rays Target: Casey Blake?

7/22: OAK (51-48) at RAYS (58-40)

Oakland at RAYS

7:10; RAYS TV/IONRAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BJ Upton's Power (or lack thereof)

Alternate History Revisited?

Bartlett to Return Soon

Vero Beach righthander Matt Walker has been suspended 50 games for violating baseball’s drug poli...

7/21: OAK (51-47) at RAYS (57-40)

Oakland at RAYS

7:10; FSN FloridaRAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Third Base Fielding - Longoria Is Good

Minor League Whatever: 7/20

8:10; RAYS TV/ION
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

12:40; FSN Florida
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

7:10; RAYS TV/ION
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

7:10; FSN Florida
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM