DRaysBay

Sean Rodriguez Delivers As Rays Defeat Red Sox 4-3

2012-05-27T21:52:58Z

One mistake pitch changes the entire tone of a game. The stories had already been written and were just waiting to be finalized before being sent for final editing. The Rays were going to lose their second 1-run game and the series to the Red Sox, the Rays offense was going to suffer another loss where they mustered only 2-runs, the Red Sox were going to move to above .500 for the first time on the year, but then Sean Rodriguez came to the plate and worked the count to his favor before hitting a 2-run homer out of Fenway Park to give the Rays a 4-3 lead and force the writers back to their computers to rewrite their stories.

The story could write itself after Sean-Rods homer. Fernando Rodney, less than 24 hours after giving up the walkoff homer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, enters the game to save a 1-run lead and his first batter - Jarrod Saltalamacchia. After serving him a steady diet of fastballs in their first two encounters of the season Rodney doubled up on the changeup and got Saltalamacchia to ground out to short. After Nick Punto grounded out to second for the second out Rodney struck out Daniel Nava to earn his 16th save of the year.

The Rays victory improves their record to 29-19 and into a tie for first place with the Baltimore Orioles who lost to the Kansas City Royals. The Red Sox were trying to get above the .500 mark for the first time on the year but see their record drop to 23-24 and they remain in the cellar of the AL East.

Sean Rodriguez on the Rays:

"There wasn't a guy in here that doubted we couldn't come back and win tonight. That's just the attitude of this team," Rodriguez said. "Everybody thought we still had a chance -- that's the one thing we do well here. As long as there's still a few outs on the board, we feel like we can still win." -mlb.com

Joe Maddon:

"We know exactly how [the Red Sox] feel today based on last night," said manager Joe Maddon-mlb.com

The Rays jumped out to a 1-0 lead in top of the fourth. Matt Joyce doubled to right field and advanced to third on a throwing error charged to right fielder Adrian Gonzalez. Ben Zobrist followed with a RBI groundout to third baseman Will Middlebrooks. In the seventh inning the Rays extended their lead to 2-0 when Will Rhymes delivered a 2-out RBI single.

Jeremy Hellickson had cruised through the first 6 innings and took the mound to start the 7th with a 2-0 lead. Very quickly Hellickson would see his lead evaporate. He issued a leadoff walk to David Ortiz, a single to Kevin Youkilis, and a 3-run opposite field homer to Adrian Gonzalez which put the Red Sox ahead 3-2.

The Rays were retired quickly and quietly in the 8th inning. Franklin Morales replaced Clay Buchholz and struck out Carlos Pena and was replaced by Vincent Padilla. Padilla struck out BJ Upton and retired Matt Joyce on a grounder to first to end the inning.

The Rays bullpen worked out of a jam in the bottom of the eighth inning after Scott Posednik led off with a single he advanced to second on a sacrifice bunt by Mike Aviles. Hellickson's night was finished ater retiring Dustin Pedroia on a fly out to right field and issuing an intentional walk tp David Ortiz. Wade Davis came in and walked Kevin Youkilis to load the bases. Jake McGee entered the game to face Adrian Gonzalez and got him to ground out to short to end the threat.

Alfredo Aceves came in to lock down the final three outs but issued a leadoff walk to Ben Zobrist. He then retired Luke Scott on a soft fly ball before surrendering the 2-run homer to Sean Rodriguez. Aceves suffered his 3rd blown save of the year and took the loss while Jake McGee (2-1) earned the victory and Fernando Rodney earned his 16th save.

A few positives from today's game: Jeremy Hellickson worked 7.1 innings and for the 38 time in 43 major league starts he held the opposition to 3ER or less. Will Rhymes went 3-3 with a key 2-out RBI, and Sean Rodriguez doubled and hit the go ahead 2-run homer both off of right handed pitching.

Turning F**cking Point: Post-Game Reactions

2012-05-27T21:39:05Z

Let's do it, boys

via upload.wikimedia.org

GDT for 5/27/12: Is your arm sore, Clay?

2012-05-27T17:00:06Z

via abcnews.go.com

Yeah, I'm Aiken.

If you see something during the game that would fit "This Week in Sun Sports," please help us out and tag it (#TWSS) in the GDT or email to ThisWeekInSS@gmail.com. (Include inning and outs if possible.)

Salty Leaves A Bad Taste In The Rays Mouth

2012-05-27T02:38:52Z

Small sample sizes can lead to false bravado or fear. Coming into the game tonight, Josh Beckett had been nothing short of dominant against the Rays since the team entered its contending phase. Beckett had faced the Rays since the start of the 2008 season and had struck out 101 batters while walking just 18 in 102 innings of work. Additionally, he had only allowed three earned runs against the Rays in his last five starts against them including a win against them the last time out.

Through the first six innings of the game tonight, it looked like more of the same as only Jose Molina was able to hit a baseball safely into play while others mostly hit fly balls to Marlon Byrd who was all over the place in center field while the corner outfielders barely had to move. Then came the seventh inning.

Brian Anderson, who did a kick ass job on this national broadcast (do not steal him, Fox national), pointed out tonight how good the Rays are the deeper they get into the game against an opponent. The table below shows how those numbers play out:

Split	PA	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	sOPS+
vs. SP, 1st	422	47	48	76	.245	.347	.404	119
vs. SP, 2nd	413	57	36	77	.275	.341	.460	116
vs. SP, 3rd	312	44	35	44	.292	.383	.539	142
vs. SP, 4th+	47	5	5	10	.333	.404	.405	118
vs. RP, 1st	543	43	51	134	.191	.284	.297	69
vs. RP, 2nd	8	0	3	1	.200	.500	.200	90

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 5/26/2012.

The 7th inning was the third time through the lineup for Beckett and those small sample sizes above got the better of the smaller sample size success Beckett has enjoyed against the Rays. Upton led off with a single and good baserunning got him to third on Matt Joyce's single. Zobrist hit yet another fly ball in this game to left field which was deep enough to score Upton and force Daniel Nava to make a critical rookie mistake.

Nava had delusions of grandeur and attempted to throw Upton out at home on a play that would have only been close had Upton decided to moonwalk the final 15 feet towards home and because his throw sailed over the cutoff man, Joyce was easily able to move up to second base on the play. That put Joyce in scoring position and Luke Scott was able to exact his revenge from last night's shenanigans by driving home Joyce on a single through the shifted infield.

That inning produced three runners in scoring position and the Rays plated two of them. In the other eight innings of this game, only Ben Zobrist got into scoring position and that came in the 9th inning when he was stranded at third base to end the inning after walking, stealing second, and advancing to third. Zobrist being left and third would come back to haunt the Rays very shortly thereafter.

Fernando Rodney tilted his lid and entered the game in the 9th to face the bottom third of the order but made an unfortunate mistake of walking Daniel Nava after a long at bat. Nick Punto came in to do the predictable sacrifice bunt which moved Nava over to second for which set the stage for the red hot Jarrod Saltalamacchia who shot a 96 mph fastball from Rodney like an arrow into the Red Sox bullpen for a walk-off victory and Rodney's first blown save for the season.

Price threw 115 pitches in 7 innings, 70 of them for strikes while scattering seven singles and a wallball double to Kelly Shoppach. Price struggled early with the command of his secondary pitches but found it later and grinded through his start despite a rather frustrating strike zone from Ed Rapuano.

This makes the Rays 2-7 in games in which they score two runs or less and spoils the second great start by a starting pitcher in three games. First, James Shields had his effort scuttled by an untimely home run allowed by Peralta and Price's outstanding effort tonight is not rewarded with a win.

The Rays And Bullpen Leverage

2012-05-26T17:00:18Z

There's been a bit of talk recently about bullpen roles, what with Jake McGee's recent dominance and the game tying home run just given up by Joel Peralta. A few weeks ago, Bill Baer on Crashburn Alley had a fantastic little breakdown of Charlie Manual's bullpen usage by leverage, so I thought now would be a good time to do the same for the Rays. I'm merely copying his template.

Leverage Index (LI) is a measure of how important a specific moment of a game is. It shows how the win expectancy can swing based on the outcome of a single plate appearance. Average leverage is one, with numbers less than one meaning below average importance, and numbers greater than one meaning above average importance. Over the course of a season, a starting pitcher's leverage Index will be close to average, but a relief pitchers's Leverage Index can vary much more. It's up to the manager to figure out how to get his best relievers into the game at the most important moments.

Because it's easy to mislead when using percentages, I'm including a table of the raw numbers. These are the number of plate appearances each pitcher has had in each LI range. Feel free to skip this table. More colorful ones are below the jump. Click on any table to make it bigger.

Now here's how many plate appearance each reliever has pitched in each LI range as a percentage of his total plate appearances.

I see three groups here. Rodney, Peralta, Gomes (who's not here anymore, but had high leverage appearances when he was), and McGee form the high leverage group and make appearances in situations with below avearge importance less than 60% of the time. Davis, Howell, and Badenhop form a middle group. Joe Maddon will allow them to pitch in important spots if the matchup and situation dictate, otherwise they have less put on their shoulders. Ramos, Lueke, and De La Rosa are purely for mop up duty right now.

Now here is how each range of Leverage Index is being split up among the Rays' relievers.

I know that having a closer in Fernando Rodney (even if he's only the de facto closer) isn't the optimal way to manage a bullpen in terms of splitting up PAs, but it's working so far. Rodney has taken the majority of plate appearances with a leverage index over 4. Peralta has gotten most of the rest, in his job as eighth inning guy and occasional fireman.

I can see the argument for giving McGee more of Peralta's high leverage spots (and this will all change when Farnsworth returns), but I don't think the system as it sits now is broken. And there's probably some truth to relievers performing better when they have a role that they can mentally embrace (studies have shown that closers perform worse in non-save situations). By not naming a closer or other set roles, Maddon gives himself the flexibility to use his bullpen well, but by sticking to those unnamed roles when he can, he may improve the mental state of his relievers.

All data is from Fangraphs.

Very proud of our effort 2nite. What occurred in the 9th reeked of intent. Was ridiculous, absurd,...

2012-05-26T12:59:56Z

Very proud of our effort 2nite. What occurred in the 9th reeked of intent. Was ridiculous, absurd, idiotic, incompetent, cowardly behavior"

#Hatsoffto@RaysJoeMaddon

Rays 7, Red Sox 4; Matt Joyce And Luke Scott Get Big Hits

2012-05-26T03:51:32Z

What is the opposite of a "pitchers’ duel?" Is it something peaceful, like a "pitchers’ genial conversation?" Or is it something intense but harmless, like a "pitchers’ staring competition?" No, staring competitions show real skill – a person can be a dominant starer.

There was nothing dominant about tonight’s matchup of Jon Lester versus Alex Cobb. If it had been a real duel, the powder would have been wet, the bullets made of salt, and both combatants would have recently contracted vision-distorting eye infections. And it didn’t help that umpire Mark Carlson called an extremely tight zone on the bottom and the corners, but allowed the high strike. Sometimes.

The Sox got the scoring going early, when Mike Aviles hit a hot shot toward Drew Sutton at third that Sutton booted for yet another Rays error. Aviles would eventually come around to score, and while Alex Cobb was able to limit the damage to just the one run, it took him 27 pitches to do so. Cobb really wasn’t sharp. His pitches seemed to lack movement tonight, and he had trouble getting the ball down. He would eventually exit the game after pitching five innings, allowing two runs on three hits and four walks, with two strikeouts. Out of his 96 pitches, Cobb only induced one swinging strike.

Luckily for Cobb, John Lester was even worse. He could only make it through four innings (81 pitches), allowing seven runs on six hits and three walks.

After an EJ groundout to start the third inning, Carlos Pena worked a walk. B.J. Upton then hit a bloop single into right, and Carlos Pena was able to advance to third. I know that this is like saying that my goldfish breathes air pretty well for a fish, but Pena is pretty fast for a first baseman, and he got a great read off of BJ’s hit. Next, Zobrist worked a walk to load the bases for Matt Joyce. Joyce got ahead in the count and then blasted a 3-1 breaking ball out to the bullpen in right center for the grand slam.

Tommy Rancel wrote a piece a little while back (h/t to RJ for bringing it up on Twitter) about how Lester, despite an even split, is a Danks theory candidate because he stops using his changeup and cutter against lefties. There’s definitely something to it, as Maddon batted Joyce fifth, ahead of S-Rod, despite facing a quality lefty. And it did seem like Joyce was able to zone in on Lester’s curve.

The following inning, after Sutton looped a ball the other way to get on base, Elliot Johnson and Carlos Pena would hit back to back homers, both on breaking balls, to tag on a few runs and chase Lester from the game.

Other notes:

In the bottom of the fourth inning, Marlon Byrd claimed to be hit by a pitch and started to go to first. Carleson [correctly] disagreed and called him back. It's funny. Players do not like to be thrown at, but they like to pretend that they were hit unintentionally.
Gonzalez hit an outside pitch high off the monster today for a double. I only mention it because of this article.
J.P. Howell came on to start the sixth inning facing two switch hitters in Saltalamacchia and Nava. He walked Salty on a good changeup that would have been a strikeout looking on a different day, and then walked Nava on five pitches, bringing Maddon out of the dugout to replace him with Badenhop.
Against Badenhop, Byrd hit a soft groundball through a hole in the infield to score one run. Posednik bunted the runners over, Nava hit a sacrifice fly, and then Badenhop threw at and hit Dustin Pedroia to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of David Ortiz. No, wait. Right handed groundball specialists do not intentionally hit righties in a three run game with one of the best flyball hitting lefties in the world coming up next. If any Boston players or fans have a problem with Pedroia getting hit here, they're clearly insane.
McGee came on to face Ortiz. After what should have been strike three was called a ball, Ortiz hit a flyball to right field, shy of the track. It was a loud out, in that the Fenway crowd made a lot of noise. It wasn't actually an extremely hard hit ball. McGee would stay on to pitch the seventh inning as well.
Joel Peralta came on in the eighth and dominated three Boston batters, powering his fastball over their bats one batter after another. For any losing faith in Peralta after Wednesday, don't worry. He looks locked in.
Of course, the real excitement came in the top of the ninth inning. Franklin Morales, who throws extremely hard, got the first two outs and then started throwing at Luke Scott. The first pitch was 97 mph, behind Scott. The third and fourth pitches were 97 and 98 mph well inside. Morales finally got him in the leg with a 97 mph fastball on the fifth pitch, clearing the benches (although Scott never did charge the mound). Astoundingly, after the umpires took forever to sort out the scrum, Morales was merely warned, not ejected. Classless move by the Sox to throw at Scott, horrible job by the refs for not recognizing what was happening and getting the game under control.
But that's not all. As the Rays returned to the dugout, a Boston fan threw something at Upton, and yelled racial slurs. He probably did it just to rub in what a smart, passionate fanbase they are.

Joe's post-game thoughts

Adrian Gonzalez and Outer Half Pitches

2012-05-25T18:16:09Z

Adrian Gonzalez and Outer Half Pitches

How in the world does this happen?