DRaysBay

The Rays Tank: Nerds!

2012-05-25T12:01:41Z

Provided without commentary:

You can find more pictures here. This team is something else.

Do pitchers throw harder in certain situations? Max Marchi takes a look.
What does Justin Verlander mean? Jeff Sullivan tells us.
I can always use more Rich Thompson stories.
Rancel hits on the changes BJ Upton has made in his approach.
The most popular baseball team in Florida is your Ta....your Mi....nope, still the New York Yankees. While the Rays dominate the Bay area market in the poll, they finish third in central Florida behind both the Yankees and the Red Sox. Nice work, Collette.....
Sabermetrics - Overrated in baseball or the new standard? For the lulz

Norman (San Jose) lots of time for Hak Ju Lee to get back on track and back into your top 25,...

2012-05-24T20:18:16Z

Norman (San Jose) lots of time for Hak Ju Lee to get back on track and back into your top 25, right?

Yes. Has had trouble with his hands 'leaking' at the plate, made some adjustments, not really translating into performance yet. Remaining tools are still there, but of course he's not an elite guy if he doesn't hit.

ESPN's Keith Law's comment from today's prospect chat

The Sean Rodriguez Rollercoaster

2012-05-24T17:01:26Z

There were certain expectations put on Sean Rodriguez coming into the season. He was expected to win the starting shortstop job and did so. He was expected to flash excellent glove work and has thus far. He was expected to be league average with the bat, which isn't a high bar to reach for a shortstop. That bar looked out of reach in April. However, the month of May has been a different story.

It's not a stretch to say that Rodriguez was one of the worst hitters in baseball in April, putting up a line of.190/.274/.238 with a .238 wOBA in 76 plate appearances. He had one (!) extra base hit. His walk rate was a decent 10.5 percent but he struck out 25 percent of the time. When the calendar turned over so did his game, hitting .300/.329/.486 with seven extra base hits in roughly the same number of plate appearances. His current May wOBA of .354 is good for ninth overall for shortstops and seventh among third basemen. In April his .238 mark was seventh and fifth worst respectively. In months in which he's had more than 50 plate appearances his wOBA of .354 is the highest of his career, narrowly edging last May's .351. How has he turned it around?

There's no one answer to point to specifically. He's begun hitting fastballs better which certainly helps. Look at the pitch result data from April and May.

April:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	75	29.90%	57.30%	40.00%	9.30%	16.00%	14.70%

May:

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	79	34.30%	73.40%	58.20%	2.50%	29.10%	26.60%

He's seeing a higher percentage of fastballs, swinging at more of them and making more contact. A seven percent decrease in whiffs is significant, allowing him to put more balls in play. Balls put in play have a better chance of becoming hits than ones that don't, you know.

His average against right handed pitchers, below .200 in April, has risen to .260 in May. That's good. However he's in the unusual situation of having an on base percentage -- .255 -- lower than his batting average thanks to not walking once and having a sacrifice. That's bad. The biggest reason for his success this month has been his production against left handed pitching. He's always hit southpaws well, sporting a .282AVG/.382OBP and a .363 wOBA against them over the past two plus seasons. While he has just one extra base hit off them - a double -- this month his average is .421 and OBP .458. It's a sample of under 30 plate appearances, but if you're looking for a way to explain his month the success against lefties is a good start.

Rodriguez is more important to the Rays now than he's ever been. Without Longoria, Jennings or Keppinger in the lineup he and B.J. Upton are the only right handed threats. He's a better hitter than April showed and not quite as good as May is turning out. If he's able to provide league average offense or above it would go a long way in solidifying the Rays' lineup going forward.

*All numbers current as of 5/23

Issues With Two Outs

2012-05-24T15:01:01Z

It was mentioned in yesterday's game day thread by someone that it seems as if the Rays give up more two out runs than other teams. Sometimes perception is not reality when you spend most of your time watching one team and who they are playing, but in 2012, perception is reality. The Rays are indeed giving up more two out runs than most teams. In fact, they are giving up more two out runs than any other team in the American League and are only one off the pace for the overall "lead" in major league baseball.

What gives?

The table below shows how each team in the American League does pitching with two outs this season. The American League average slash line for pitching with two outs is .236/.318/.381 and since the Rays are dead last in the league in this split, it is easy to compare them to the league average in the table.

Rk		PA	R	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	HBP	IBB	ROE	BAbip	sOPS+
1	OAK	541	57	1.50	.231	.318	.321	3	6	5	.273	84
2	BAL	556	67	2.93	.227	.290	.354	5	6	13	.272	84
3	LAA	525	56	1.77	.222	.314	.333	5	7	10	.264	86
4	CHW	518	62	2.24	.218	.295	.360	5	1	1	.251	87
5	TEX	519	58	2.78	.221	.295	.362	4	0	5	.276	88
6	CLE	539	60	1.45	.237	.330	.328	2	3	2	.280	90
7	TOR	523	65	1.89	.218	.300	.385	1	2	8	.244	96
8	KCR	518	63	1.55	.238	.340	.372	4	5	4	.289	105
9	MIN	480	78	2.06	.251	.310	.403	2	4	3	.272	103
10	BOS	546	78	1.89	.246	.332	.402	8	1	3	.282	110
11	SEA	533	80	2.32	.229	.304	.435	5	2	0	.249	110
12	DET	524	71	3.00	.252	.324	.429	5	5	4	.321	115
13	NYY	538	82	2.43	.259	.336	.427	5	5	7	.319	118
14	TBR	575	91	1.59	.254	.357	.421	3	10	9	.299	123
	TOT	7435	968	2.03	.236	.318	.381	57	57	74	.278	100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 5/24/2012.

The Rays do not have the highest batting average allowed with two outs, but they do indeed have the highest on base percentage allowed and are among the highest with two out errors while pacing the league with two-out intentional walks. How do these numbers compare to the Rays pitching with no outs or one out? The team is third best in the league when pitching with nobody out while it is second best in the league pitching with one out. These out splits are shown below:

Split	PA	R	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	HBP	IBB	ROE	BAbip	sOPS+
0 outs	567	36	3.16	.246	.300	.381	4	0	8	.289	89
1 out	516	52	3.93	.218	.270	.330	6	2	5	.262	67
2 outs	575	91	1.59	.254	.357	.421	3	10	9	.299	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 5/24/2012.

The team does its best work with one out but the two out number has been an issue for all of the starting pitchers this season while the relief core has held up surprisingly well.

Rk		PA ▾	R	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	HBP	IBB	ROE	BAbip	sOPS+
1	James Shields	96	13	2.00	.265	.365	.470	1	0	1	.315	138
2	Jeremy Hellickson	83	9	1.00	.286	.398	.500	0	0	1	.302	157
3	David Price	82	9	4.20	.273	.317	.390	0	1	0	.352	102
4	Matt Moore	79	20	0.63	.323	.468	.565	1	3	1	.347	196
5	Jeff Niemann	47	8	3.33	.273	.319	.477	0	0	1	.313	126
6	Wade Davis	35	5	1.60	.233	.343	.333	0	0	1	.286	95
7	Burke Badenhop	32	5	2.00	.214	.313	.357	0	2	3	.263	92
8	Joel Peralta	32	9	2.25	.179	.281	.464	0	0	0	.176	111
9	Fernando Rodney	30	2	3.50	.143	.200	.179	0	1	1	.190	10
10	Jake McGee	25	5	1.75	.238	.360	.286	0	2	0	.357	88
11	J.P. Howell	18	1	2.00	.133	.278	.133	1	0	0	.182	22
12	Cesar Ramos	11	1	1.00	.250	.455	.250	0	0	0	.400	108
13	Alex Cobb	9	0	1.00	.250	.333	.375	0	0	0	.286	103
14	Brandon Gomes	6	0	1.00	.000	.333	.000	0	1	0	.000	4
15	Dane De La Rosa	4	5	0.00	.667	.750	2.000	0	0	0	.500	664
16	Josh Lueke	2	0		.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	.000	-100
	Team Total	591	92	1.66	.254	.355	.425	3	10	9	.301	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 5/24/2012.

Matt Moore is responsible for 22 percent of the two-out runs the team has allowed this season but none of the five starting pitchers for most of this season have done better than the league average. Moore has walked 16 batters with two outs this season while walking only 27 all season meaning 59 percent of his walks in 2012 have come with two outs and are a big reason why batters are reaching base against him in those situations so much more often than the other starters. When examining Moore's splits in situations, he becomes more of a two-pitch pitcher with runners in scoring position and two outs as he throws his breaking ball much less in those situations than he does with the bases empty.

In bases empty situations, Moore throws his fastballs 65 percent of the time, his breaking ball 15 percent of the time, and his change-up 20 percent of the time. When the situation changes to runners in scoring position with two outs, Moore uses his fastball 68 percent of the time and his change-up 18 percent of the time but his breaking ball only six percent of the time. His location on pitches with two outs is also an issue. If you watch the television broadcasts when he has pitched, Brian Anderson is quick to point out how Moore sometimes struggles to finish his pitches and leaves them up. The strikezone plots illustrate what he is talking about:

Only David Price comes close to performing at league average as his numbers as his skills stand out above the rest of the rotation. The issue is odd this season because this has not been a problem in past seasons.

These two-out struggles are not just in certain two-out situations, they are even happening when the team retires the first two batters in an inning:

Rk		PA ▾	R	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	ROE	BAbip	sOPS+
1	James Shields	46	2	1.29	.333	.435	.513	0	.393	180
2	Jeremy Hellickson	42	2	0.71	.371	.476	.600	0	.393	217
3	David Price	37	1	6.00	.229	.270	.343	0	.318	80
4	Matt Moore	34	2	0.43	.296	.441	.556	0	.273	194
5	Jeff Niemann	21	1	6.00	.400	.429	.600	0	.538	202
6	Joel Peralta	13	0	0.67	.200	.385	.300	0	.250	107
7	Wade Davis	13	1	4.00	.250	.308	.500	1	.286	135
8	Fernando Rodney	12	0		.167	.167	.250	0	.286	22
9	Burke Badenhop	12	0		.250	.250	.333	1	.333	71
10	J.P. Howell	10	0	0.00	.143	.400	.143	0	.143	70
11	Jake McGee	8	0	2.00	.143	.250	.143	0	.200	20
12	Cesar Ramos	5	0	0.50	.000	.400	.000	0	.000	31
13	Alex Cobb	5	0	1.00	.250	.400	.500	0	.333	165
14	Brandon Gomes	2	0		.000	.000	.000	0	.000	-100
15	Dane De La Rosa	1	0		.000	.000	.000	0	.000	-100
16	Josh Lueke	1	0		.000	.000	.000	0		-100
	Team Total	262	9	1.62	.278	.374	.441	2	.331	141

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 5/24/2012.

The sOPS+ split shows how the individual or the team did against the league average; numbers below 100 are good while numbers over 100 are worse.

The immediate thought may be that as Moore shakes off his rookie struggles, that split should quickly even out and they very well may. It isn't possible to look up how David Price affected the split in 2009 when he was going through similar struggles, but this split should get better as the season wears on as it would be rather unusual to see it spike this much from one season to the next given how constant the out splits have been the previous four seasons.

The other factor here is the defensive issues the team has had this season surrounding their unusually high rate of errors. The Rays have committed a league-worst 41 errors this season and nine of them have come in with two outs in the inning which further extends the inning and gives opponents an extra chance or two. As the talent on the defense improves with the return of the full-time players, these numbers should work themselves out.

The Rays Tank: Luke Scott's Sweet Spot; Drew Sutton Revisisted; And The Yanks Might Be For Sale?

2012-05-24T14:02:01Z

Let's jump on into the links today...

I found this article about Luke Scott's success rather interesting. It's no real surprise that Scott is much better against right-handed pitchers, but I didn't realize exactly how much he crushes pitches on the outside half of the plate. That seems to be his sweet spot, so here's hoping righties don't catch on and try to bust him inside.
Waitwaitwaitwait, the Steinbrenners might be willing to sell the Yankees? It looks like rumors are starting to circulate that the Yanks could be put on the block soon, and after the Dodgers sold for $2+ billion, the Yankees would surely bring in one helluva lot of cash. If this actually goes down, it'll be really interesting to see A) who buys them, and B) what the most valuable franchise in baseball (if not sports) goes for.
Here's a Pirates beat writer's take on the Drew Sutton trade. That minor deal is working out rather well for the Rays so far, yes? I still find it ridiculous that the Rays have had to resort to hitting him cleanup, but I guess that's how it goes; please hurry back, Longo.
There's a successful team in the majors having attendance trouble...and it's not the Rays? Progress!
Also, be sure to enter our Pick Six contest! Play the game for a day and give yourself a chance to win a free Pick Six t-shirt. We'll give out another two free t-shirts at the end of this week, so keep trying!

Down On The Farm: May 24

2012-05-24T13:00:23Z

Montgomery was the only winner down on the farm Wednesday thanks to a strong start by Joe Cruz and solid effort from the bullpen.

AAA Durham Bulls (19-28)

Durham enjoyed an off day.

AA Montgomery Biscuits (24-22)

Michael Sheridan's 12th inning walkoff home run ended a great pitcher's duel in a 2-1 Montgomery win. Zach Quate picked up the win in his first appearance of the year by pitching two hairy but scoreless innings. Danny Hultzen pitched like a #2 pick, striking out a career high 12 and only allowing one run in six innings on five hits and a walk. Joe Cruz was even better, striking out eight in six scoreless innings, only allowing one hit and two walks. Ryan Garko's RBI double scored Omar Luna in the 4th for Montgomery's first run. Luna had two hits, walked and also stole two bases as Montgomery's most productive hitter in the game. After Marquis Fleming allowed Jackson's only run in the 7th, Frank De Los Santos, Kirby Yates and Quate finished the game with five scoreless innings.

High-A Charlotte Stone Crabs (22-23)

As John Gregg put it on Twitter, C.J. Riefenhauser proved he's human in Charlotte's 12-1 loss. Brevard County scored at least one run in each of the first five innings, and they really put the game out of reach with a six run 4th. Riefenhauser was charged with eight runs in 3.2 innings, allowing 10 hits. In that 4th inning, Riefenhauser actually recorded two outs without allowing a run before the wheels came off. Two errors and an infield single helped prolong the problematic inning, and it was punctuated by a Shawn Zarraga home run against George Jensen that allowed a couple inherited runners to score. Charlotte scored their lone run of the game in the 2nd when a passed ball allowed Derek Dietrich to score. Brandon Allen went 0/4 with two strikeouts as Charlotte's left fielder. Brewers prospect Jimmy Nelson struck out seven in seven innings, only allowing the unearned run.

Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods (24-22)

Shoddy defense led to Bowling Green's demise in their 6-5 loss to Great Lakes. In the bottom of the 9th, a Loons batter reached second base after a single and error by Joel Caminero. He then came around to score the winning run when Austin Hubbard threw the ball away trying to get the out at third on a sac bunt. Those were two of their seven errors on the game, and only half of Great Lakes' runs were earned. Jake Floethe pitched a solid seven innings, striking out six and allowing four runs, two of which were earned. Before the Loons scored three unanswered runs to end the game, Bowling Green built a 5-3 lead, thanks to Tyler Goeddel's 4th home run of the season and first in over a month. Jake Hager is working on a three game hitting streak with a three hit game, and Cameron Seitzer also piled up three hits.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL BOX SCORES

Star of the day- Joe Cruz had his best start of the season by far for Montgomery.

Goat of the day- C.J. Riefenhauser finally had a rough outing, but it shouldn't take away from the season he's having so far.

Today's games (probables courtesy of milb.com)

Durham v. Norfolk 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Chris Archer* (3-4, 5.01) v. Jason Berken (0-1, 2.50)

Montgomery v. Jackson 8:05 PM
Matt Buschmann* (1-2, 5.45) v. Steve Garrison* (2-1, 2.25)

Charlotte v. Brevard County 6:30 PM
Grayson Garvin (2-3, 4.31) v. Brandon Williamson (1-2, 3.68)

Bowling Green @ Great Lakes 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Jacob Partridge* (4-0, 1.11) v. Jose Dominguez* (2-1, 3.00)

*Listed as TBA on milb.com

Scouting the opposition

Norfolk Tides (Baltimore)
19-26 (3rd in IL South)
Offense: 167 R (11th) .670 OPS (9th)
Pitching: 3.50 ERA (7th) 1.30 WHIP (4th)
Top 30 Prospects: 1B Joe Mahoney (13), 2B Ryan Adams (23), 1B Brandon Waring (25)

Jackson Generals (Seattle)
27-19 (1st in SL North)
Offense: 194 R (4th) .712 OPS (2nd)
Pitching: 2.74 ERA (1st) 1.22 WHIP (1st)
Top 30 Prospects: RHP Taijuan Walker (1), LHP Danny Hultzen (2), LHP James Paxton (3), SS Nick Franklin (4), 3B Francisco Martinez (6), RHP Carter Capps (16), RHP Brandon Maurer (21), LHP Mauricio Robles (26), 3B Steve Proscia (27), OF Johermyn Chavez (28), 1B Rich Poythress (29)

Brevard County Manatees (Milwaukee)
19-26 (5th in FSL North)
Offense: 172 R (11th) .656 OPS (11th)
Pitching: 3.07 ERA (1st) 1.18 WHIP (1st)
Top 30 Prospects: RHP Taylor Jungmann (2), LHP Jed Bradley (3), RHP Jimmy Nelson (10), RHP Brooks Hall (25)

Great Lakes Loons (Los Angeles)
24-22 (2nd in MWL East)
Offense: 196 R (9th) .657 OPS (13th)
Pitching: 3.56 ERA (7th) 1.32 WHIP (12th)
Top 30 Prospects: OF James Baldwin (11), RHP Ryan O'Sullivan (23), C Pratt Maynard (25), 1B O'Koyea Dickson (29)

B.J. Upton Walks It Off, Rays Down Blue Jays 5-4

2012-05-23T22:33:27Z

The first seven innings went well. James Shields was excellent, the offense drew a career high seven walks off opposing starter Ricky Romero, and there was little reason to worry. Then the eighth inning happened.

After allowing a one out double to Jose Bautista, James Shields was pulled in favor of Joel Peralta with the Rays leading by two. In four pitches the lead was gone. As Edwin Encarnacion rounded the bases I couldn’t help but think of all the writers who now had to re-work their already mostly finished game stories. I felt the same thing in my head. The Rays have a good bullpen. They don’t blow two run leads in the eighth inning very often. Mentally I had to hit backspace just like the scribes in the press box. It’s a new game. The events of the last few hours don’t mean much now. That’s a feeling that’s unique to baseball, I think. No other sport lends itself to the game turning on a dime quite like baseball, which is one reason we love it, I suppose. It turned one more time in the 11th inning when B.J. Upton stepped to the plate.

After a Rich Thompson hit by pitch and a Carlos Pena strikeout, Upton faced Darren Oliver. The Jays had burned through four relievers already and left Oliver in to face the right handed Upton. It seemed like overexposure to me, seeing as Oliver had already faced six batters, but on a 2-2 count Upton laced a double down the left field line, allowing the blazing Thompson to score easily from first, giving the Rays a 5-4 victory. For the day Upton went 3-6 with two doubles and a stolen base, extending his hitting streak to seven games. In those seven games he's gone 13-29 with four doubles and two home runs. The walk off hit was the fifth of his career and fourth against Toronto. With so many players lost to injury it's super important that a hitter like Upton step up and have a big impact. The top five hitters in the Rays' order got on base 14 times. You're not going to lose too many games when that happens.

As I mentioned before, Shields was excellent in working 7.1 innings while striking out 10 and walking just one. It was the second time this season Shields has struck out 10+ batters. The Toronto hitters had a rough time with his changeup as nine of his ten strikeouts came on the pitch - and all were swinging. His ground ball rate on the day was 63 percent, marking the ninth time in ten starts this season he's been at or above 50 percent.

With the amount of men the Rays put on base the game shouldn't have been so close, but a win is a win and thanks to the Orioles loss they're just one game back in the division.

The Rays Tank: RISP Madness

2012-05-23T13:30:48Z

This morning, Darren Viola, better known at @RRepoz on Twitter and Repoz at Baseball Think Factory, offered this tweet this morning:

Enuff with RISP! In 2003 *1* team batted below .240 with RISP. This year there are *13*. That's what a MLB wide 15 point BA drop will do.
— Darren Viola (@RRepoz) May 23, 2012

That got me thinking about how that particular split is trending over the years and how the Rays have performed against the league average throughout franchise history. The results: the league is definitely trending down but the Rays have been all over the place including hitting .285 in 2005!

Other news you can use:

Roy Halladay is (not) broken!
Wait, other players do this too?
Chris Lund reviews the tragedy of baseball expectations. When the feelings gone and you can't go on...
Bill Petti reviews how the league adjust to hitters over time.
RaysProspects reviews the hitting prospects down on the farm
Can anyone explain why Brett Lawrie was sliding into second last night on a flyball to centerfield? The ump made the right call on him last night but Lawrie should have been out on the sheer stupidity of sliding into second on a ball he apparently read as one heading into the gap. It appears Lawrie has more faith in Upton's arm than Upton himself and that's saying something.