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GDT for 5/16/12: Now more than ever

2012-05-16T22:45:04Z

Ditto.

Cue "Brie Pottery Gif" in 3...2...1...

PS: She Knows! (.com)

If you see something during the game that would fit "This Week in Sun Sports," please help us out and tag it (#TWSS) in the GDT or email to ThisWeekInSS@gmail.com. (Include inning and outs if possible.)

The Infuriating Jose Molina

2012-05-16T22:13:23Z

The Infuriating Jose Molina

The psychology of a fan is a tough egg to crack. We remember certain negative events very well, but smaller events -- even if they are consistent and common and positive -- can go unnoticed.

Jose Molina has been amazing at framing behind the plate this year. Say what you will about his inability to block pitches (which has rarely affected a game so far, IMHO) or his current lack of success against the stolen base (*glances at Jeff Niemann*), but he has CERTAINLY driven some hitters crazy. That much is undeniable.

Moonlight Graham Is Back

2012-05-16T20:34:57Z

He has a degree rather than medicine, but the closest thing baseball has to the fictional Moonlight Graham character in Field of Dreams is now a part of the Rays 25-man roster. Earlier today, the Rays traded Durham Bulls outfielder Kyle Hudson to the Phillies for veteran minor league outfielder Rich Thompson and have added him to the 25 man roster as his name appears on tonight's lineup card per Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.

Thompson was drafted in the 2000 draft by Toronto and has but one major league plate appearance in his professional career and that came in 2004 as a Rule 5 player with the Royals. One of our readers pointed out that the plate appearance came against former Devil Rays catcher Tim Laker in a game whose winning pitcher was current television color analyst Brian Anderson.

He was returned to the Pirates a few days after that plate appearance and has remained in the minor leagues since that time. It has been a very long career for Thompson who is known for his baserunning as he has had quite a successful conversion rate throughout his career.

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	R	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	21	Queens	A-	308	42	28	8	45	57	.262	.386	.349	.735
2001	22	2 Teams	A+-AAA	575	95	44	12	48	84	.304	.371	.365	.736
2002	23	Tennessee	AA	631	109	45	13	50	86	.280	.361	.329	.689
2003	24	3 Teams	AA-AAA	456	69	48	7	28	55	.293	.362	.337	.700
2004	25	Nashville	AAA	461	73	40	15	26	62	.287	.348	.404	.752
2005	26	2 Teams	AA-AAA	502	67	58	8	39	72	.247	.325	.334	.659
2006	27	2 Teams	AAA-AA	346	54	17	11	39	50	.291	.400	.408	.808
2007	28	Tucson	AAA	367	60	15	2	28	49	.295	.360	.415	.776
2008	29	2 Teams	AAA-AA	416	42	25	2	39	74	.265	.340	.381	.721
2009	30	Lehigh Valley	AAA	493	69	26	4	38	73	.265	.334	.366	.700
2010	31	2 Teams	AAA-AA	534	70	41	4	33	75	.284	.339	.382	.721
2011	32	Lehigh Valley	AAA	490	81	48	4	37	84	.276	.354	.408	.762
2012	33	Lehigh Valley	AAA	101	5	7	2	8	18	.307	.390	.398	.788
13 Seasons				5680	836	442	92	458	839	.280	.355	.371	.727
AAA (11 seasons)			AAA	3413	463	256	48	262	507	.276	.349	.383	.732
AA (6 seasons)			AA	1445	241	119	25	107	203	.283	.357	.347	.704
A- (1 season)			A-	308	42	28	8	45	57	.262	.386	.349	.735
A+ (1 season)			A+	514	90	39	11	44	72	.311	.380	.374	.754

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2012.

Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer had a great story on Thompson over the weekend that is a must read and helps put a nice framing on how special this roster move is for a player who has persevered in the minors a very long time waiting for another chance. In that story, he highlights this anecdote:

"It (a callup) would give a lot of validation to my rationale," Thompson said. "It obviously doesn't look like it's that realistic. It would give me some affirmation. But if you were to tell me I won't make it to the big leagues again, it's not like I would just leave. That doesn't drive it at all. By no means is anything I do in the big leagues from this point on going to change my life financially. You get called up for a month, it would be nice. Maybe I could buy a new car."

Who knows what the move will bring for the Rays, but a guy with 5,680 minor league plate appearances is back in the major leagues hoping to get his second career plate appearances and that elusive first major league hit at the young age of 33.

Enjoying Ben Zobrist's Odd Season

2012-05-16T19:55:12Z

There aren't many players in baseball like Ben Zobrist. Sure, lots of players will hit roughly the same number of homers and drive in roughly the same number of runs and steal roughly the same number of bases, but few, if any, will do it with the defensive prowess of Zobrist. He's a gold glove caliber second basemen and an above average right fielder. He's also started at least one game at every position besides pitcher and catcher. How many players can say that? The Rays' Mr. Everywhere is having one of the stranger starts to a season that I can remember, and it's been a whole lot of fun to watch.

Before last night's three hit performance he was hitting .219, which isn't good. But, he was also getting on base at a .370+ clip which is good. I was watching a game with a friend late last week when he was hitting under .200. I said he was still hitting well. My friend disagreed, refusing to give into the notion that someone hitting below .200 could be having a good season at the plate. The numbers have improved a bit since then - he's over .230 now - but the average still isn't "good". I took a look at Zobrist's total hits and hit types from last season and this season and compared the percentages.

Season	Hits	1B%	2B%	3B%	HR%
2011	158	0.54	0.29	0.04	0.13
2012	29	0.38	0.31	0.1	0.21
Net	129	-0.16	0.02	0.06	0.08

The distribution of hits have shifted a bit as 16 percent less are going for singles, but the hits he is getting are going for extra bases as evidenced by his .266 Isolated Slugging Percentage (SLG% minus AVG). The low average is being buoyed by the extra bases he's racking up. One reason for the low average is his numbers against left handed pitching. So far this season he has a line of just .140/.283/.372 in 53 plate appearances against southpaws. Contrast that to last season when he had a .907 OPS and .390 weighted on base average (wOBA) against them. As a left handed batter he's hitting .284/.437/.568 with a .427 wOBA in 103 PAs. Historically he's been a better hitter from the right side of the plate, posting a higher career averages across the board. Obviously this year has been quite the opposite as a .138 batting average on balls in play against lefties has dragged him down. His line drive rate is four percent higher against lefties but is hitting it on the ground less which is resulting in more fly outs, specifically infield fly balls where he's hitting five percent more as a right handed batter. Zobrist is a notorious pull hitter and looking at the spray chart below we can see how many outs he's already made to the left side of the field as compared to the right in half the plate appearances.

Despite his low average and terrible luck against lefties Zobrist is second in baseball in walks (30) and continues to be an important cog in the Rays machine and among the most valuable players in baseball, even if he doesn't do it in the most traditional of ways.

Rays Swap AAA OFers with Phillies

2012-05-16T17:32:55Z

Rays Swap AAA OFers with Phillies

Out goes Kyle Hudson, in comes AAA lifer Rich Thompson who has had quite the SB success rate in recent years.

UPDATE: According to Roger Mooney, Thompson is on the 25 man roster as he is listed on tonight's lineup card under extras but no official corresponding move has been announced yet.

Toughness Quantified!

2012-05-16T17:10:12Z

Over the past few years, advanced statistics have infiltrated baseball. Front offices are filled with Ivy League economists making decisions based on esoteric numbers, some fans think they’re smarter than players, and anyone brave enough to talk about intangibles gets mercilessly mocked on "blogs." What these nerds just don’t understand is that you can’t measure heart, scrappyness, grit, or toughness. Until now.

I’ve just invented a new metric that I think will accurately measure toughness in pitchers. It’s called Batters Retired On Broken Leg per Nine Innings, or BROBL/9. Currently, our very own Jeff Niemann leads the league this year with a BROBL/9 of .526. The league average, weighted by innings pitched is .002, and our sample has a standard deviation of .024. This means that Niemann is more than a full 21 standard deviations above average in BROBL/9.

And while the Rays pitching staff as a group sports a BROBL/9 significantly below Niemann, their .056 mark still leads the league. This is a testament to the Rays training staff, strength and conditioning staff, and Maddon’s motivational abilities.

But how do we know if we can trust BROBL/9? Do we have a large enough sample size yet this season? To answer this question, I ran a split half reliability test similar to Pizza Cutter’s iconic study. I put all PAs this season into alternating buckets, with the hope that I’d be neutralizing park and weather affects. Astonishingly, the two buckets matched completely with an r of 1! It seems that BROBL/9 stabilizes almost as soon as the season begins.

So what can we learn from our new tool? Jeff Niemann is a tough guy, as are the Rays as a whole. The Red Sox are much less tough, which goes a long way toward explaining last year’s historic collapse.

As always, I invite you to examine my data. The BROBL/9 numbers are my own, IP is from Fangraphs. If you have suggestions for how to objectively quantify other intangibles as well, I’d love to hear them.

Down On The Farm: May 16

2012-05-16T14:00:25Z

Hideki Matsui's debut was uneventful, but Josh Sale's coming out party has continued.

AAA Durham Bulls (15-25)

Hideki Matsui's return to baseball was uneventful in Durham's 8-2 loss against Pawtucket. Local fans responded by turning out in greater numbers than the typical Tuesday game, but they saw Matsui go hitless in four at-bats as Durham's DH. Pawtucket scored five runs in the first two innings against starter Matt Torra, all of which were scored on a pair of home runs by Josh Kroeger and Jose Iglesias. Durham's lone runs came in the 4th inning when both Matt Mangini and Leslie Anderson socked solo home runs. The pitching story of the night definitely belonged to Alex Torres. Although he allowed two runs in 4.1 innings of relief, he struck out six and walked none. Torres was in desperate need of something positive to build on, and perhaps this outing is it.

AA Montgomery Biscuits (19-21)

A former Biscuit foiled Montgomery's effort to take four out of five in their series with Jacksonville. Jake Jefferies' three run home run against Kirby Yates proved to be just enough in Jacksonville's 5-4 win. In the first four innings, the teams traded solo home runs, Montgomery's coming off the bat of Tyler Bortnick, his first of the season. Bortnick drove in another run two innings later as Montgomery took the lead. After Hak-Ju Lee came home on a groundout, a Kyeong Kang triple was followed by Bortnick's RBI single, his third hit of the day. In the bottom of the 9th, the Biscuits scored a run and had the tying run on base, but David Wendt and Brad Coon were both retired to end the game. After the solo home run he allowed in the first, Kyle Lobstein settled in and had a solid start, striking out six and only allowing the one run in six innings on three runs and three walks.

High-A Charlotte Stone Crabs (18-19)

Mikie Mahtook's two-hit game streak came to an end, but his 9th inning double was instrumental in Charlotte's 3-2 win. After his leadoff double and a strikeout, Riccio Torrez hit an infield single to get him over to third. The Miracle attempted to turn a double play on Philip Wunderlich's ground ball, but they could only get one and Mahtook scored the winning run. Enny Romero had another solid start, allowing two runs in six innings while striking out four. He's pitched six or more innings in three of his last four starts, and he's walked two or fewer in four of his last five. C.J. Riefenhauser got a hard-earned win by recording one out, and he was one of three Charlotte relievers to combine for three scoreless innings. Wunderlich, Robby Price and Steven Tinoco each had two hit games.

Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods (21-18)

Bowling Green built an early lead and held on in their 5-4 win against South Bend. After allowing a two run home run to the second batter of the game, Ryan Carpenter settled in for a solid start, retiring 15 of the next 16 batters. He finished with six strikeouts in five innings and only allowing the two runs on three hits. At the plate, it was a positive game for some of the Rays' prospects. 2010 first rounders Josh Sale and Drew Vettleson each hit solo home runs, and they now have three each on the season. Jake Hager hit two doubles, and that gives him three two-hit games in his last six. Tyler Goeddel singled and collected two more stolen bases. With two outs and the bases loaded and two runs already home in the 8th, Austin Hubbard retired Marc Bourgeois to end the threat.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL BOX SCORES

Star of the day- Alex Torres struck out six and walked none in 4.1 innings of relief. Other players may have contributed more for one of the affiliates that one, but individually that's pretty big for Torres.

Goat of the day- Matt Torra allowed a home run to Jose Iglesias.

Today's games (probables courtesy of milb.com)

Durham v. Pawtucket 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Lance Pendelton (1-1, 4.15) v. Doug Mathis (2-2, 5.01)

Montgomery @ Birmingham 8:05 PM
Joe Cruz* (2-5, 7.04) v. TBA

Charlotte @ Ft. Myers 7:05 PM
Albert Suarez* (1-2, 4.98) v. Jhon Garcia (0-4, 3.77)

Bowling Green v. Dayton 7:35 PM
Ryan Carpenter (4-2, 4.54) v. Stalin Gerson* (1-3, 4.66)

*Listed as TBA on milb.com

Scouting the opposition

Pawtucket Red Sox
26-14 (1st in IL North)
Offense: 206 R (1st) .782 OPS (1st)
Pitching: 3.29 ERA (5th) 1.30 WHIP (3rd)
Top 30 Prospects: C Ryan Lavarnway (9), RHP Alex Wilson (11) SS Jose Iglesias (12), OF Alex Hassan (26), 1B Lars Anderson (28)

Birmingham Barons (White Sox)
21-19 (3rd in SL North)
Offense: 180 R (2nd) .716 OPS (1st)
Pitching: 3.62 ERA (4th) 1.38 WHIP (8th)
Top 30 Prospects: RHP Nestor Molina (2), RHP Simon Castro (3), SS Tyler Saladino (8), 1B Andy Wilkins (13), OF Jared Mitchell (17), OF Jose Martinez (26), LHP Pedro Hernandez

Ft. Myers Miracle (Minnesota)
15-23 (6th in FSL South)
Offense: 155 R (8th) .667 OPS (10th)
Pitching: 4.15 ERA (10th) 1.45 WHIP (12th)
Top 30 Prospects: OF Oswaldo Arcia (5), SS Levi Michael (6), RHP Madison Boer (12), RHP Adrian Salcedo (16), RHP Manuel Soilman (23)

Dayton Dragons (Cincinnati)
14-25 (8th in MWL East)
Offense: 126 R (15th) .609 OPS (15th)
Pitching: 3.43 ERA (5th) 1.27 WHIP (10th)
Top 30 Prospects: OF Kyle Waldrop (22), 2B Ryan Wright (23), 3B Sean Buckley (24)

The Rays Tank: Let's Play Count The Injuries!

2012-05-16T13:00:51Z

Injuries are a handy excuse to point to when a team is struggling, but the hard truth is that all teams have to deal with unfortunate injuries over the course of a season. Some teams get hit worse than others, but if a team manages to get through a year mostly unscathed, they have a huge advantage over most other teams (and also, everyone will want to hire away their training staff).

In recent years, it's always felt like the Rays have had rather good luck when it comes to injuries. That hasn't always been entirely true -- they've had to deal with missing Longoria for extended periods of time before -- but it's felt that way because the Rays have built their team with extra depth so that injuries don't hurt quite so bad. Sure, luck has still had its role in helping the Rays when times are toughest (remember Super Sam Fuld?), but they have been very intentional about planning well to cope with injuries.

This season, though, the Rays probably have the least amount of depth that they've had in recent years. Their top options in the minors are a far cry from last season's replacements of Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, and Desmond Jennings. And of course, they're having to cope with an impressive amount of injuries at the moment.

Quick trivia question: How many players are currently on the DL for the Rays right now? Anyone able to guess? The answer (and more) after the jump.

Not including Robinson Chirinos, the Rays currently have 7 players on the DL: Sam Fuld, Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Lobaton, Evan Longoria, Brandon Allen, Desmond Jennings, and Jeff Niemann. How many teams are able to suffer an injury to their best player, their closer, one of their starters, many of their best bench options, and their lead off hitter, yet still stay competitive? And that's not even considering that the Rays were without B.J. Upton for a few weeks early this season.

It's still early, but this already is in consideration as one of the most injury-riddled seasons for the Rays in a long, long time. The Rays have had a lot of bad luck so far this season, and hopefully -- hopefully -- things will improve from here.

In other news, Carson Cistulli has some idle thoughts on how early season narratives can influence how we interpret a player's season and further success or failure. Guilty as charged; I know I make way too many generalizations about players based on the first month or so of the season (at least when it comes to fantasy baseball).
Adam Jones was interviewed over at FanGraphs, and he was caught saying both UZR and wOBA. I feel like this is a watershed moment; it's the first time I can remember a player openly mentioning wOBA.
Food for thought: so UZR does not include shift plays in its calculation (if the shift had an effect on the play). So how about that? It's yet another reason to look at DRS instead of (or at least, in tandem with) UZR, as DRS does include shift plays.
Mark Simon is always pushing the envelope with measuring defense over at the Stats & Info Blog at ESPN, and his recent article on breaking down the Mets defense is very cool. The amount of defensive outcomes that they track is so ridiculous, but awesome.