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The Rays got the ball rolling with last week's trade of defensively gifted second baseman Akinori...

2009-11-09T19:04:58Z

The Rays got the ball rolling with last week's trade of defensively gifted second baseman Akinori Iwamura (the trade market is moving already, with J.J. Hardy moving from the Brewers to the Twins for Carlos Gomez, and Mark Teahen going from the Royals to the White Sox for Josh Fields and Chris Getz), and they have a potential outfield replacement ready for Crawford in Desmond Jennings. The White Sox will consider dealing Jenks, whose salary is about to increase through arbitration, while the budget-conscious Marlins seem likely to move Uggla, who's probably not worth the $7.5 million he'll get through arbitration, at least not to Florida.

Heyman

2009 SBN Manager of the Year Award

2009-11-09T18:01:01Z

To steal Viva El Birdos intro:

The cloud of white smoke your computer emitted last night might have tipped you off, but this year's SBN blogger awards are going to be revealed this week. They're just like the BBWAA awards, except that tomorrow's post isn't set aside for ragging on the choices. Yet. Stop the drumroll:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Why not just name the damn thing "The managers of good teams" award?

The Definitive Carl Crawford Off-Season Post

2009-11-09T10:00:17Z

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

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It seems odd, but the most compelling Rays hot stove item has nothing to do with this off-season. Well, it has something to do with this year, just not as much as it does with next year, or the year after next. All eyes will be on the Rays and a certain free agent after this season. Will there be an extension? A trade? Will the Rays just let him walk? I'm not talking about Carlos Pena or Pat Burrell. Instead, obviously, Carl Crawford. It seems like just yesterday Crawford signed the extension. So let's examine the three means of action the Rays can take with Crawford moving forward.

Extension

Let's start with the basics. Crawford's birthday in early August turned him 28-years-old, the period in which most baseball players begin experiencing their statistical prime. Next year is the final year of a four-year, $15.25M extension (which included two club options worth $18.25M) signed way back in April 2005. He is the organization's career leader in plate appearances, runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, strikeouts, and stolen bases. Many would describe him as the Rays' franchise player, although Evan Longoria has a fine argument too.

Over the last three years Crawford has posted wOBA's (stolen bases included) of .367, .319, and .365. In 2006, Crawford's wOBA was .368. Consistency. Defensively, Crawford is the best left fielder in baseball and it's not particularly close. Last three years UZR/150: 17.5, 25.6, -1.4. I'm not sure what happened in 2007 (horrible ARM rating mostly) but weigh that however you wish and the end result is Crawford being a plus-plus defender. That means 10 < x < 15 runs every season with maybe a down season or two.

If you examine Crawford's defense a little closer, you'll find that Crawford's best asset is (unsurprisingly) his range. Since 2002 Crawford's range ratings are as follows:

Year	RngR	INN
2002	5.4	561.3
2003	13.7	1159.3
2004	16.6	1010
2005	15.6	1246.7
2006	12.1	1251.3
2007	1.2	1186.3
2008	21.4	920.7
2009	17.6	1282.7

Crawford's top two seasons by RngR have came over the last two years. That's insane to think about. Most research has indicated that defensive skills begin to decay well before their offensive skills brethren. We're talking mid-20s instead of early-30s. Crawford plays a position with normally weak defenders, and UZR is scaled to league average, so +20 in 2009 may have been +25 in 2005, still it's remarkable to think he's only gotten better relative to the rest of the league's left fielders.

The time period in which UZR encompasses doesn't help much when trying to look at how players with similar skill sets at similar ages progressed. Those players are still around Crawford's age. or weren't to begin with. and that just complicates any type of comparison or projection based on historical context. We'll get back into this in a few paragraphs once we start looking at comparable players.

The problem (and something even the most knowledgeable on the situation will have only marginally more information than us about) is whether the turf will affect Crawford's aging more so than if he played on grass all these years. He's complained multiple times and the Rays have done their best to curb the damage by giving him multiple days off at a time. Has that helped? Who knows.

In order to do the impossible and project the future, let's take a look at ZiPS[1] top three comparable players[2] to Crawford, and how they aged.: Gene Richards, Steve Finley, and Mitch Webster.

Richards was a 6'0", 175 lbs. lefty from South Carolina State University. The San Diego Padres made him the first selection in the 1975 amateur draft and he reached the majors two seasons later as a 23-year-old and hit .290/.363/.390. He would play in 462 games over the next three years, batting .296/.363/.390 and would fall off over the ensuing four seasons as he played in only 418 games and possessed a .716 OPS. Like Crawford, Richards stole bases and mostly played left. Unlike Crawford, he never played a game after turning 31-years-old in 1984.

Finley is the most well-known player of the three since he's the most recent in our conscious. Holder of the longest career of the trio, Finley broke into the majors in 1989 as a 24-year-old and didn't exit until after a brief stint in 2007 with the Colorado Rockies as a 42-year-old. It's easy to say he was also the most successful since he batted .271/.332/.442.

Webster was a switch-hitting high school kid from Kansas who broke into the majors as a 24-year-old in 1983 with Toronto. He would move to the other Canadian team within two years which began a career as a journeyman. After Montreal he moved to the north side of Chicago, then to Cleveland, then Pittsburgh, and finally to Los Angeles where he finished his career in 1995 as a 36-year-old. His career line: .263/.330/.401.

Here's a graphical look at how the three progressed by age:

For our purposes (A.K.A: because FanGraphs only allows for three players on these neat comparison graphs) Richards is a bit out of sorts. Barring something unforeseen, Crawford is playing past the date he turns 30. Even if he loses an arm someone will employ him as a pinch runner. If he loses a leg he's still bound to be quicker than Raul Casanova. Two things to note: 1) Crawford was in the majors before most of these guys were drafted, 2) Crawford has been better than both to this point despite that. As seen here:

There isn't a clear comparison to Crawford out of those three. Johnny Damon is one that always comes up as well. This seems to work better than any of the ZiPS comparables. Damon broke into the minors at an early age, and while his performance was lesser than Crawford's in the early years, he had a better run before hitting his prime which ... wasn't' much of a prime. He was still good (and still is with the bat) but if Crawford follows his path then he's already had his best offensive season.

In the UZR era Damon has never marked as an above average defender. He had two seasons (one in 2002, the other in 2007) with a positive ranking, but for the most part he's never had the range that Crawford displays and his arm is weaker.

With all of this information we need to know what to expect from Crawford not just in 2010, but also in 2011, 2012, heck maybe 2015. Whether Crawford's agent knows about WAR or not is irrelevant. His client is making $10M in 2010 and coming off his second best offensive season. There is little reason or incentive to sign a contract that pays Crawford less than $10M annually without even checking the market. Same can be said for taking a four-year deal. Odds are, Jason Bay will get a four-year deal, he's not as young as Carl will be and he has old player skills. If Bay can get that, then Carl damn sure can get five or six years.

Thanks to a 5.5 WAR season this year, Crawford's average wins total the past three years is just under 4. That's slightly worse than his impressive stretch from 2004-6 in which he totaled at least 4.5 WAR annually without touching 5. Let's set the baseline for next year at 4. Maybe he exceeds that expectation, maybe he doesn't, this is a conservative projection and when performing this type of analysis you should aim for the medium or even high-end of the probability scale more so than the low-end (i.e. what is Crawford MOST likely to perform like rather than WHAT IF he starts hitting for more power. That would be a nice bonus though.)

So, if 2010 is 4, then let's make 2011 3.6. And 2012 3.2, and so on. Let's also assume he signs a four-year deal with the Rays because he likes the area and feels they are committed to winning - note: I know I totally went for the "He can get more length on the open market" angle earlier, and I think it's true, this is just another hypothetical - that means we have a WAR line of: 4, 3.6, 3.2, 2.8, and 2.4. Of course, with free agents you aren't paying for the future as much as the past, meaning Crawford's probably making more than the 2.8 WAR is worth, but there's no way around it, barring club options and such. Here's how this works out:

Year	WAR	$perW	FA$
2011	3.6	5.86	21.096
2012	3.2	6.44	20.608
2013	2.8	7.09	19.852
2014	2.4	7.79	18.696

That's four-years, $80M. Say Crawford just loves the team and takes a 10% discount, that's still 4/72, or $18M/year on average. Odds are a deal like that is structured so Crawford makes something like 14/18/20/20. That gives the Rays a small window to generate more revenue (roughly three seasons from now) until they have to start paying $20M to one player. Realistically, this could lead to Crawford being traded before those huge, huge paydays kick in. It just depends on how everything else works out.

Maybe Crawford takes fewer dollars than he's worth, but betting on that happening again is like betting on back-to-back-to-back rolls of snake eyes. The Rays have never reached the point where they paid a single player $20M during a season. Looking at Evan Longoria and James Shields' contracts respectively, they max out under $13M. That means an investment of this size is unprecedented. Now, again, it may happen, but realistically it's going to take a heck of an unselfish effort by Crawford and his agent, and if they aren't willing to make that sacrifice once more then there should be no ill will beseeched upon them. Their responsibility is to is look out for Crawford, not the Rays.

With such you have to look at the contingency plans. That would be Desmond Jennings, Ben Zobrist, or Matt Joyce. You also have to keep in mind that signing Crawford is not a vacuum maneuver. By allocating those future dollars to him, you take away the potential of signing B.J. Upton or someone else for the long-haul. It's a bit of a false dichotomy to name a single player from the current roster because in three years this team will look almost nothing like it does today. Just keep the ramifications in mind.

If Crawford is unlikely to be a Ray next year around this time, then that leaves two options. 1) Trading him at some point over the next 12 months or 2) letting him walk as a free agent and getting draft compensation in exchange. Let's examine both options.

Trade

The time to do this was last deadline. Advocating a trade now is going to mean taking less value than most would like. Buster Posey is not coming back for Crawford. Much like with the ignorance of the agent or the selflessness of Crawford, you cannot - reread that - assume every General Manager is going to swoon over Crawford so much as to give the Rays six years of a near-ready catcher. There are some GMs who taking advantage of is easier than others, but nobody is quite that dumb[3].

The return for one year of Crawford is probably less than you would hope. Even with some wins-starved GM out there looking to add one final piece. Further, trading Crawford becomes even more tricky due to the Rays almost certainly being in contention beyond the trade deadline. That leaves the waiver period (two months of Crawford would bring back even less) and that's about it.

Maybe someone offers a fantastic deal this off-season but I'm not counting on it. Which leaves ...

Free Agency

Otherwise known as: getting draft compensation while having zero say over whether Crawford stays in the league or division. Besides the fact that Crawford is projected to be a Type-B (no, really)[4], this is also a bit risky because if a top-15 team signs Crawford then the Rays don't even land an extra first round pick, instead just a compensation and round two pick. And remember, this is assuming Crawford achieves Type-A status. Which, he should, but the ratings system is inherently flawed and like most things MLB, probably not changing anytime soon.

There's no guarantee the Rays get a good player in those slots, but as Dave Cameron showed a while back, this seems to work out better than trading a guy in his final year. Let me quote Cameron's conclusion verbatim:

Now, this isn't a completely thorough cost/benefit analysis. By trading for prospects, you're not incurring the costs of signing the players, as you are with compensation picks, so the financial outlay is several million dollars higher by going with the draft picks. The payoffs are going to happen a year or two later by taking the draft picks versus taking the prospects in most cases.

But, the evidence is clear - the expected return by trading an all-star in the last year of his contract is not any higher than the expected return of letting that player walk at the end of the season and collecting two draft picks as compensation. The Trade Ichiro brigade are living on a false premise. The organization will not be any better off by dealing Ichiro in July than they would be if he left in October of his own free will.

When you factor in the added value of still having Ichiro on the team in August and September, the exclusive two week negotiating window that the team would have with him at the end of the season, and the actual chance (no matter how slim you think it is) that he might re-sign with the team, and the best path is astoundingly clear.

The Rays have never received a compensation pick for a player. Never. That's not too hard to believe because prior to the new administration you had three types of players with this franchise.

1. Players at the end of their careers.

2. Players who didn't belong in the league.

3. Youngsters, years away from free agency.

The first tier is for players like Wade Boggs, Al Martin, Jose Canseco, and Greg Vaughn. Tier two is players like old Al Martin, young Reggie Taylor, and Jason Smith. The third tier is full of guys like Rocco Baldelli, Crawford, Aubrey Huff, Chad Gaudin, Chad Orvella, and so on. The tiers the Rays were missing included "Players in post-free agency extensions" and "Free agent acquisitions", amongst other things the organization lacked.

Before taking over, the new guys gave the green light to re-sign Crawford, they then locked up Baldelli, and eventually traded Danys Baez, Lance Carter, Huff, Toby Hall, Mark Hendrickson, and Julio Lugo before any of them reached free agency. Were those the right moves? Impossible to say for sure, but one of the advantages of trading is being able to identify the players of whom are available. Trying to project the 2011 draft class at this rate is impossible. Trying to identify whether the player at pick 25 will be more valuable than Prospect Y is insane.

Still, as long as this franchise has existed there has never - ever - been a more important decision than what will take place with Crawford. There are obstacles and almost certainly trapdoors sitting just beyond the horizon. Trading Scott Kazmir was easy. Doing anything with Crawford is going to require some intensive attention to detail and obsession with rechecking and then checking once more just to make sure everything is in order since, you know, Crawford is basically a tax return form.

Copping out is something I hate to do. I like being definitive when plausible and declarative when necessary, but really I have no flipping clue what I would like done with Crawford. An extension to keep Crawford as the true Rays player would be fantastic, however I know it's unrealistic, and further I fear what this could lead to down the road. A trade or Crawford leaving via free agency will cause me an infinite amount of headaches if I'm still on this site and sane at that point. [5]

Feel comfortable with this front office in control. At worst they'll trade Crawford and get the best possible return which eclipses the draft return. At best they bedazzle Crawford and his agent into a deal that defers money 20-25 years down the road in exchange for less money now. As much as I love this current ownership and management, it seems unlikely they'll be here a quarter of a decade from now. Although, if they are, I won't be complaining.

I guess the same can be said for Carl Crawford and the 2010-1 Rays. Here's to finding out the answer sooner rather than later this off-season.

[1] I hesitate to use PECOTA for a few reasons. A) It's paid content, meaning I don't know how much sharing they consider too much. B) PECOTA isn't spelled with D. Still, for those interested, the top comparables are Deion Sanders, Darin Erstad, Terry Puhl, Johnny Damon, Claudell Washington, Lou Brock, Willie Davis, Willie Wilson, Lloyd Moseby, and Blake McBride. Marquis Grissom, Steve Finley, and Coco Crisp show up in the next 10.

[2] And for those who prefer Baseball-Reference's similar players, the top 10 through age 26 are Roberto Clemente, Whitey Lockman, Jimmy Sheckard, Sam Crawford, Johnny Damon, Claudell Washingotn, Tim Raines, Mike Tiernan, Rickey Henderson, and Buddy Lewis. The top 10 overall are Blake McBride, Phil Bradley, Freddy Leach, George Wtakins, Charley Jones, Danny Green, Socks Seyboid, Harry Rice, Bug Holliday, and Frank Catalanotto.

[3] A good rule to follow when rosterbating is this: if you are adamantly for a trade as a fan of your team, then go ahead and add another player or two heading to the other team. For instance, I'd do Crawford for Felix Hernandez all day. So I'll add Reid Brignac to the fold to try and even things out. It works. Trust me.

[4] Darren Oliver: Type-A. Carl Crawford: Type-B.

[5] The terms "as an analyst" and "as a fan" have been thrown around often. Few have used the "as a blogger on a site with rampant community functions and capabilities ..." tag yet though. I cannot wait until the first "RAYS ARE CHEAP BECAUSE CRAWFORD SIGNED WITH THE YANKEES FOR 100 MIL" FanPost.

What To Do With Andy Sonnanstine?

2009-11-08T12:00:37Z

by Mark Duncan - AP

(AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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Nothing seems to come easily for Andy Sonnanstine. His fastball barely tops 87 and he's forced to get by on mixing pitches and superb control, which is not a way to earn the benefit of the doubt from fans or scouts. The fastball-throwing, strikeout machines are by far sexier and catch your eye easily, which is why players like Daniel Cabrera get chance after chance after chance, while players like Sonnanstine have to force their way onto the scene. I know the term has garnered a very negative connotation among the sabremetric community, but pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine and Brian Bannister are real "scrappy" pitchers...and I don't mean that as a bad thing in this case.

Sonnanstine slowly worked his way through the minors without ever heralding great acclaim, and he managed to crack a spot in the 2008 Rays' rotation as the 5^th starter. He had a great year in 2008, posting a 3.91 FIP, and he entered the 2009 season with a spot in the Rays' tightly crammed rotation. However, despite the fact that he was given a spot to start the season, Sonnanstine had ample reasons to keep looking over his shoulder. He was the Rays' fourth starter, but with David Price and Wade Davis making their presences known in Triple-A and Jeff Niemann out of options and pitching well, he needed to pitch well to keep himself in the majors. Call it bad luck, crumbling under the pressure, hit-ability, whatever you want to - Sonny had a bad year.

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	LOB	FIP	tRA
2008	5.77	1.72	3.35	0.98	0.280	66.3%	3.91	4.00
2009	5.42	3.07	1.76	1.72	0.318	58.4%	5.45	5.93

	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
2008	17.0%	42.1%	40.9%	8.0%
2009	18.8%	42.7%	38.5%	13.9%

A finesse pitcher, Sonnanstine saw his BB/9 rate skyrocket this past year, going from 1.72 to 3.07. He was unlucky (13.9% FB/HR; 58.4% LOB; .336 BABIP), but he still was far from the pitcher that we saw in 2008. Now, with Jeff Niemann and David Price firmly entrenched in the rotation and Wade Davis poised to take over the 5^th spot, we're left with the question: what to do with Sonny?

Going into 2010, there are four main options for the Rays: trade Sonny, put him in the rotation, leave him in the minors in case of an injury, or turn him into a reliever. In my opinion, the first two options are highly unlikely. Trading Sonny makes little sense at this point, since his value is at an all-time low and he would garner little in return, and putting him in the rotation would force Wade Davis back down into Triple-A, where he has little left to prove. If given the chance in the rotation, Sonny may have a big comeback year and rebound, but with the pitching depth the Rays have and the competitiveness of the franchise, I feel like the chance of him getting a gig in the rotation to begin the year is slim to none. That leaves us with two final options: leaving Sonny in Triple-A or putting him in the bullpen.

Both options certainly have their merits. Having starting pitching depth is always a good thing and Sonny still has options left, so sending him down is certainly a viable option. However, I can't help but feel that putting Sonny in the minors is a waste of his talent for the organization. The Rays have plenty of other starting pitchers in Triple-A that could fill in for an injured starter (Hellboy, Talbot, Hernandez), and anyway, putting Sonnanstine in the pen wouldn't keep him from filling in an odd spot or two if the Rays had him penciled in as their long-man, which he most likely would be.

Remember what the Rays did with Howell in 2008? This could be the same sort of process. Let Sonnanstine start off the year as the long man in the pen and see how effective he is. If he bombs, then you can always demote him without incurring much damage, and if he dominates, eventually promote him to higher leverage situations. Starters typically gain miles an hour on their fastball and increase their strikeout numbers when transitioning to the pen, both of which are changes that could benefit Sonnanstine. I'm not expecting him to be Howell v2.0 (especially since Howell had a higher K/9 total as a starter than Sonny has so far), but it may be the most efficient use of Sonnanstine's talent within our organization at the moment. He's a cheap, team-controlled arm that has displayed major league caliber talent in the past, so why not use him and save ourselves money on another reliever?

Dewayne Staats Agrees to Contract Extension

2009-11-08T00:30:32Z

KenDavidoff Intruding on territory of @sportswatch - Dewayne Staats has signed a contract extension with the #Rays. Will call 5,000th game in '10.

This is great news. Staats began calling games for the Rays when they originally began play. His voice (and hairdo) are trademark with the team. I don't think it's a stretch to call him the Voice of the Rays. More Staats is good Staats, although hopefully he lessens the amount of fly ball outs that receive the home run call treatment.

Rays Family Tree: The Dead Trade Strings of 2000

2009-11-07T18:00:30Z

The year 2000 featured the end of two more trade strings for the Rays.

Bobby Abreu traded for Kevin Stocker (released 2000)

1997 Trade	Acquired	Trade Yr Salary	PT-OPS	NT-OPS	Orginal Draft
Bobby Abreu	Expansion Draft97	$180k	.687/2 yrs	.928/9 yrs	Amateur Free Agent 90
for
Kevin Stocker	Granted FA00	$1.8 Million	.697/5 yrs	.676/3 yrs	Draft 2nd rd 1991

Pre-Trade

At the time of his selection in the expansion draft, Bobby Abreu was a 23-year-old right fielder who had started 46 games for the Astros in 1997. In his two seasons with Houston, Abreu posted a slash of .248/.325/.362. Immediately upon selection he was traded to the Phillies for 27-year-old shortstop Kevin Stocker who over 5 years with the Phils put up a slash line of .262/.347/.350.

Post-Trade

The Rays paid Stocker $7.5 million over 3 years for .250/.329/.347 despite releasing him in May of 2000 ending the Abreu trade string for them. Stocker was picked up by the Angels where started 63 games in 2000 with a line of .197/.299/.279. 2000 also represented the end of Stocker's major league career.

Abreu made $580k over his first two seasons with the Phillies while he OPSed .906 and .995. In 2000, was time for Abreu to get paid, and pay him the Phillies did to the tune of $51 million through 2006 where he OPSed between .877 and .970. In July of 2006, they extened the Abreu string by trading Abreu and Cory Lidle to the Yankees in exchange for C.J. Henry, Carlos Monasterios, Jesus Sanchez, and Matt Smith. Matt Smith needed Tommy John Surgery in 2007 after just 23 relief appearances with the Phils and is now out of baseball. Sanchez is now 22 and in A Ball with the Phils. Monasterios pitched for the Phils in A+ this year, before having a cup of coffee in AA. C.J. Henry is now a reshirt freshman for the Kansas Jayhawk BASKETBALL team with the Yankees footing his tuition. The Stocker string is being held onto by a thread for the Phils in the form of Monasterios and Sanchez, but it was dead for the Rays in 2000.

Scott Aldred traded for Marty Barnett (Released 2000)

1997 Trade	Acquired	Salary Year of Trade	Rays ERA	NT-ERA	Orginal Draft
Scott Alldred	Expansion Draft97	$545k	4.37/2 yrs	4.61/2 yrs	16th round 1986
for
Marty Barnett	Released 2000	Minor Leagues			14th round 1995

Pre-Trade: Scott Aldred was a 29-year-old signed prior to the inaugural season. In 19988, he had served as a left-handed starter for the Twins. He would set a major league record in 2008 out of the pen with the Rays with 48 consecutive appearances without a decision. This record would remain in tact until 1998 when Trever Miller, also on the Rays went an astonishing 121 games in a row. The move to the pen on the Rays did Aldred a lot of good as his FIP dropped from 6.82 with the Twins to 3.55 and 3.79 in 1998-99, thanks to a lower than .4 HR/9 in both years.

Marty Barnett was a 25-year-old right hander pitching out of the pen in AA for the Phillies organization. Barnett had struck out 33 while walking 24 in 53.1 innings prior to the trade in 1999.

Post-Trade: On July 29, 1999, Aldred was traded to the Phillies as a player to be named later in exchange for 25. Marty Barnett was immediately elevated to AAA Durham where he struck out 30 and walked 30 in 37 innings of work. He was released from the organzation in July 2000 without making it to the big show. He would never make it back to AAA again and by 2004, he was out of baseball entirely.

Scott Aldred would pitch through 2000 with Philidephia before becoming a free agent. A career 5/6 K/9 pitcher, he increased his K/9 to 9.3 with the Phils, However, he may have been doing so at the expense of the long ball which increased to 1.33 HR/9. He did not make it back to the majors beyond 2000. Today, Aldred is the pitching coach for the AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays Face Several Decisions On Player Options; Carl Crawford, Gregg Zaun

2009-11-07T13:38:01Z

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays will just say "yes" when it comes to Carl Crawford's $10 million dollar option for 2010.

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One of the first orders of business to take care of during the hot stove league is squaring away options. So far 11 options have been accepted or declined since the end of the World Series with several more looming. Around these parts the Tampa Bay Rays have three options of their own to take care of.

Two of the three options seem like slam dunks. One is an obvious pick-up and one is a simple decline. The third option, however, is 50/50 and will probably determine the course of who is our catcher next season.

The Rays hold a $1.9 million dollar option (plus performance bonuses) on left handed specialist, Brian Shouse. Overall, his 5.17 FIP was far from impressive and his -0.1 WAR made him a negative value. However, it wasn't his fault that manager, Joe Maddon, had him face nearly as many righties (52 PA) as lefties (70 PA). Shouse did the job expected of him in 2009, and held left handed batters to a line of .224/.246/.373. Righties continued to crush him at a .356/.442/.622 clip. Nonetheless, Shouse just didn't pitch enough to justify picking up his nearly $2 million dollar option A left elbow strain sidelined him for 63 days, and while he made 45 appearances, he threw just 28 innings. With that being said, the $200k buyout is the likely course of action in this case.

The Rays are more likely to go with fellow side-winding lefty, Randy Choate, who was nearly as effective and will cost probably half of what Shouse will. There is always the possibility of signing former Ray (for 24 hours) and sabermetric wunderkind, R.J. Swindle on a minor league deal. The Rays could also go without a traditional lefty and turn to reverse split righties like Lance Cormier and newly acquired Jesse Chavez to serve as LOOGY's.

The next option is just as simple; the Rays will exercise the $10 million dollar option on left fielder and franchise player, Carl Crawford. This is a no-brainer and regardless of what CC's future holds, he will remain Rays' property for the time being. According to fangraphs, Crawford has made $13.1 million dollars in his career with the Rays. The nice $10 million raise is well overdue considering the fact that he as given the team $104.7 million dollars worth of production during his career.

CC is easily worth the $10 million dollar tag, but with some scouts saying Desmond Jennings could give you the same production right now for the league minimum, it doesn't look likely CC will finish his career with the Rays. Despite that fact, stranger things have happened, and both sides have expressed interest in a long term deal. Either way, the Crawford decision will be the biggest and most emotional decision in the franchise's history.

The final option because to leader of the Zaunbie nation, Gregg Zaun. Hailed as the veteran savior to our catching woes, Zaun didn't disappoint in the final two months of the season. Brining his veteran savvy and his reputed ball blocking ability, Zaun also swung a mighty stick in his near 100 plate apperances with the Rays. Small sample size rules apply, but Zaun hit .287/.323/.489 for the Rays. That earned him a 0.7 WAR or $3.2 million dollars in value. This means he has essentially covered his potential 2010 $2 million dollar option in production.

He is hardly the answer at catcher alone, and ZiPs has him projected for a .237/.335/.367 line in 2010. More likely, Zaun would be the left handed batter in a catcher platoon; picking up most of the at-bats against right handed batters. The problem with that is the Rays have a very similar situation with their other catcher Dioner Navarro. Navi is arb2 eligible and will make something in the neighborhood of ~$2 million dollars next season. I doubt the Rays will tie nearly $4 million dollars in two platoon players. There is also the question of Zaun playing 100-120 games behind the plate at 39. I could see the case for both sides of this option and honestly have no inclination of which way it will go. However, once the option is picked up or declined, we will have an answer to which way the Rays are intending to go.

Rays Family Tree: Dead Trade Strings of 1999

2009-11-06T18:00:38Z

Steve Slowinski wrote a piece a week ago about the importance of developing trade strings, particularly for the teams in small to mid-markets. I'll let Steve explain:

To lead off this series (no pun intended), I want to look at a concept that has always fascinated me: trade strings. I'm pretty sure I just made that phrase up, so let me explain what I mean. "Trade strings" are trades that eventually result in future trades. And then those trades beget future trades. And so on and so forth down the road until eventually, a prospect or two doesn't pan out and the trade string fades. Theoretically, if a team was exceptionally good at evaluating talent and got lucky in some trades, a team could keep one player's peak talent within their system for decades, even long after that original player had declined and fallen out of baseball.

This gave me the idea of looking at every major league transaction on the Rays major league tree. I'm going to divide the Rays history into 3 groups. The Live Trade Strings involve strings of players that are still paying dividends today. The Dead Trade Strings were attempts at parlaying assets into others which have since faded into oblivion. The One and Dones involve Free Agents, Waiver Claims, Draftees, and Players purchased who spent part of one or more seasons with the Rays but eventually left the team with nothing in return.

For Part I, we will look back at the Dead Trade Strings in order from the first string to die to the most recent. Our very first Dead Trade String was touched on by Eric Hahmann earlier this week.

1997 trade: Dmitri Young for Mike Kelly (Released in 1999)

1997 Trade	Acquired	Trade Salary	PT- OPS	NT-OPS	Original Draft
Dmitri Young	1997 Expansion Draft	$215K	.690/2yrs	.842/4yrs	1st 1991
for
Mike Kelly	Released 1999	$235K	.823/2yrs	.696/1 yr	1st 1991

The first trade was really a phantom one. On November 11, 1997 the Rays acquired Mike Kelly from the Redsfor a Player to Be Named Later. A week later, the Rays acquired Da Meat Hook, the older brother of Delmon Youngin the expansion draft from the Reds and returned him to Cincinnati as the Player to Be Named Later. Kelly would start 67 games in the corner outfield spots for the Rays in their inaugural season posting a slash of .240/.295/.401. The former first round pick would be released prior to the start of the following season and would only get to see 2 future Major League plate appearances with Colorado before his sun set for good.

Dmitri Young started 87 games for the Reds in 1998 mostly in the outfield corners with a slash of .310/.364/.481. Young would continue to post an OPS north of .830 for his tenure with the Reds prior to being traded to the Tigers for Juan Encarnacion and Luis Pineda. Young continued to play in the majors through 2008 posting a career slash of .292/.351/.475. Meanwhile Encarnacion would be packaged with Wilton Guerrero and Ryan Snare to the Marlins for Ryan Dempsterin 2002. Sadly for the Reds, they released Dempster in 2003, thus ending their Mike Kelly string prior to Dempster's success with the Cubbies. Nonetheless, the Reds won the day in this one quite handily.

1999 Trade: Julio Santanafor Will Silverthorn (Released 1999)

Julio Santana was acquired via waiver claim from Texas in April 1998 where he had spent two years splitting his time between the rotation and the bullpen. Santana did not do much for the Rays posting a FIPs of 5.29 and 6.37 with a K:BB hovering around 1 in 1998 and 1999. In July 1999, Santana was traded to the Red for cash and a Player to Be Named later (Will Silverthorn). Santana was granted free agency by the Red Sox following the season. He made 3 more dips in the majors in relief roles, his most recent being in 2006 with the Phillies.

I was unable to find much on Silverthorn. As a 19 year southpaw he fared well in rookie ball for Boston striking out 39 while walking 13 in 44.2 IP. In, 1999 after being acquired by the Rays, he made 7 relief appearances in Princeton striking out 8 and walking 7 in 9.2 innings pitched. I would speculate he had arm troubles as he did not reappear in the minors until 2001 when he surfaced with the independent Tyler Roughnecks. He only lasted 12 games and was never heard from again. Given that Santana was less than a replacement player, this deal saved the Rays money, I suppose that is a moral victory. Hurrah!

Three Rules to Keep in Mind Regarding Relievers

2009-11-06T11:00:19Z

by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez freaks the hell out after recording the final out in the Braves' 6-2 win over the Washington Nationals in a baseball game in Atlanta, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

View full size photo »

1) No Type-A Relievers

These players will cost the Rays their first round pick as well as the financial terms necessary to hook the arm. That means Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Octavio Dotel, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, and John Grabow are all no-goes. Yes, the Rays have two first round picks, however, the compensatory pick is more than a dozen picks away from the 2010 first round pick, meaning if the Rays want a Type-A player it will come at the cost of a mid-first rounder, not a late-first rounder.

Now, there is a potential exception. If the team of a select player chooses against tendering an offer of arbitration which waives the compensatory pick. That being stated, if the Rays were to sign a player before the arbitration acceptance deadline (which falls within the first week of December) then they would give up the first round pick no matter the other team's intentions.

Some of those relievers are good players, but giving up the sixteenth pick (technically; virtually the seventeenth pick) for 60 innings is worthless. That slot has produced some fantastic ballplayers. Over the last four years: Bobby Borchering, Brett Lawrie, Kevin Ahrens, and substance abuser Jeremy Jeffress. Some other notables: Chris Volstad, David Purcey, Nick Swisher, Jason Jennings, Kip Wells, Lance Berkman, and Shawn Green. A few true stinkers too, but for the most part some fine talent.

2) Injuries Are Sometimes a Necessary Evil

Especially with pitchers. If guys like Kiko Calero were 100% dependable then they would be outside of our price range. Thankfully they aren't in either case. This is where luck and medical staffs come in handy. If you sign three relievers with about 60% chances of pitching more than 45 innings, then the chances of all three doing such is 21% and the chances of none of them doing it is 6.4%.

J.J. Putz, for instance, has bone spurs, tendon fraying, and gingeritis which lead to downed velocity and ineffectiveness but could make for an interesting non-roster invitee. Same can be said about Chad Cordero who quickly disappeared after a few years as a rosterbation champion.

3) Trading Prospects for Relievers

Not a good idea under most circumstances. Trading Reid Brignac for a young catcher with a few years of control left and having a young relief arm thrown in as an equalizer is one thing, trading a young prospect for a reliever straight-up is generally not smart. For instance: I absolutely detested the Orioles/Dodgers mid-season swap from the Dodgers perspective. They gave up third baseman Joshua Bell for George Sherrill. The latter was fantastic for the Dodgers - providing 0.4 WAR during half a season - meanwhile the former posted a .397 wOBA in Double-A and possesses the nickname "Baby Kemp". You don't have to guess which side is probably winning that deal.

Summary

Of the top 15 relievers this year, only three were free agent signings and those three were Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park, and Trevor Hoffman. Seven were dealt for, four were drafted (three as starters), and one via the Rule 5 draft. Relievers are often overvalued because of sentimental value - i.e. when a team loses in the late innings - but the truth is even the best closers are only worth two-to-three wins in any given year.

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 5

2009-11-06T04:07:31Z

This is part 5 of the 6 part series on the best 30 starts for the Rays in our most recent season. So far we have seen 11 - 30 and there have been some real humdingers in there. As a review, here are positions for each starter:

James Shields - 24, 23, 20, 19, 12

Matt Garza - 29, 28

Jeff Neimann - 25, 22, 21,16

Scott Kazmir - 14

David Price - 30, 26, 15, 13, 11

Wade Davis - 27, 18

Andy Sonnanstine - 17

If we assign points, such that 1st would be worth 30 and 30th worth 1, we can sum up for these guys to get an idea of who is beating whom. It would look something like this:

Price	60
Shields	57
Niemann	40
Davis	17
Kazmir	17
Sonnanstine	14
Garza	5

Of course, we aren't quite done yet, as there are still the 10 best to go.

10) Jeff Niemann on August 30th at Detroit Tigers Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.0

2.29

0.207

This game is a great reason why R, ER, and ERA are poor indicators of performance. Look at that line above, nothing special right? Well if you saw the game you would know that Niemann left in the 8th with a 3-1 lead in a patented Joe Maddon let the starter go one more and yank him if a guy gets on. Stop me if you've heard this before, but Balfour comes in and promptly gives up a 3-run homer to Polanco, one of which goes on Niemann's totals. As for Jeff, I think the video above does him justice. Nobody made solid contact all night and he left with the lead. Thanks Grant. One thing that I really like is how Niemann challenged lefties inside for the most part:

via brooksbaseball.net

9) James Shields at Baltimore Orioles on April 12th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.0

2.72

0.150

James got an early lead in his second start of the year. The lead allowed him to throw 66% strikes with only 5 swinging on 88 total pitches. He threw the change 21 times for 76% strikes, although all were looking. A running theme for James has been his declining velocity late in the game. This start is not really indicative one way or another because it was his second start of the year and he only threw 88 pitches, but peep this:

via brooksbaseball.net

James went 7 strong without giving up a run. With only 2 singles, a double, and a walk against him. The 3 K's are nice, but it's even nicer to see James not giving up multiple base-hits. In fact this was the 3rd best start of the year by a Rays starter according to wOBA. Lastly, how's this for an embarrassment of pitches:

via brooksbaseball.net

8) Scott Kazmir on August 26th at Toronto Blue Jays Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

6.00

0.82

0.244

In Scott Kazmir's last start as a Tampa Bay Ray he gave us a glimpse of his former self. Perhaps it was this start that sealed the deal and got us Sean Rodriguez instead of a different PTBNL. We'll never know, until Andrew Friedman writes his tell-all book "Ball On A Budget: The Story of How Rich Wall Street Bankers Took A Team of Also-Rans to the Top." Back to the man formerly known as Scotty Dangerous. Of course he only got through 6 with Russ Springer starting in the 7th ::gasp::, but in that time Kaz rang up 10 on 13 swinging strikes (12%) while only walking 1. He did hit a guy and give up 3 doubles and a single, but the change and the fastball were dynamite, throwing both for over 2/3 strikes (12 of the swinging variety). The fastball was averaging 93 while touching 95, though if you watch the vid the Toronto gun only had him in the high 80's. Kaz only gave up 1, but this was during the height of the failpen, and those that remember this was an especially hurtful game as Pizzle gave up a solo jack, walked the bases loaded, and then let the winning run cross on a wild pitch. You can see below that Kaz used the slider to keep guys honest, while the money pitch was his change just f-f-fading away.

via brooksbaseball.net

7) Matt Garza on September 7th at New York Yankees Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

1.58

0.199

Did someone say Failpen? In the first game of a doubleheader at New Yankee Bandbox Matt Garza threw an absolute gem. Garza went seven solid giving up only the one unearned run. Cormier started the 8th and wasn't good. Let's leave it at that. As usual Garza brought his A-game against an elite starter, this time C. C. Sabathia. Matty threw 96 four-seamers and when he's on it's diving away from lefties out of the zone allowing him to leave it on the corner for strike 3 when he needs to.

via brooksbaseball.net

Matt gave up 4 singles, a double, and just the one walk while K'ing 7 on 5 whiffs. Garz has been known to have a long-leash when it comes to pitch-counts. Perhaps this is why:

via brooksbaseball.net

No real appreciable drop in velocity ever after 115 pitches. The Crane was flapping his wings on this night and deserved better.

6) James Shields on June 4th vs. Kansas City Royals Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

8.00

1.15

0.210

Before you do anything, click that "highlights" link above. You'll get to see James Shields v. Coco Crisp, a couple of nifty double plays, and James fielding his position at a Maddux-ian level. I really like this start, a lot. He allowed 2 doubles and a single and allowed 2 runs, but he only faced 5 over the minimum over 8 occasionally shaky, but overall solid innings. Granted it's the Royals, but he threw the change, 4-seamer, and curve in almost equal proportions, with slightly less sliders. Even better he didn't throw many cutters. On the season he threw 18% cut fastballs at -0.19 wCT/c, his 4th best pitch by linear weights. (To be fair he only threw the slider 0.3% of the time.) This pitching pattern garnered him 17 WHIFFS, how very Hellickson-ian of him. I love this right here, when he can throw all of his pitches with confidence Shieldsy can keep batters completely off balance:

via brooksbaseball.net

That's 6 - 10 of the greatest starts for the Rays this year. Here's the updated standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, Brooksbaseball.net, fangraphs.com, and MLB.com

Topps honors Desmond Jennings and Alexander Colome

2009-11-05T23:42:55Z

Topps honors Desmond Jennings and Alexander Colome

Desmond Jennings and Alexander Colome are both honored as the MVPs of thier respected leagues.

Gabe Kapler's Deal Versus His Peers: Mark Kotsay Edition

2009-11-05T16:41:01Z

Trying out a regular feature of sorts here. Basically, anytime a role-playing corner outfielder with a major league track record is signed, we'll compare the contract to Gabe Kapler's one-year $1.05M deal. By the time the off-season gets rolling this will probably be forgotten, but for today at least, it is well and alive.

The White Sox re-signed Mark Kotsay today for one-year and $1.5M, or a difference in salary of $450K. Kotsay is left-handed and will soon turn 34-years-old (like Kapler) but over the past three seasons has combined to hit .260/.315/.372 in 868 plate appearances. Defensively he plays a fine first base, asking anything else of him is asking for too much. He's a platoon hitter at this point, as you can see below, and he's not too poor against righties, however insert a lefty and Kotsay is an automatic out.

via www.fangraphs.com

Compare this to Kapler, who's hit .268/.336/.443 over his last three seasons (630 PA) and plays above average defense in the corners. Kapler hits the opposite hand better than Kotsay and is even superior against the same hand - Kotsay's death bed scene is going to involve cursing those of the unnatural dexterity -- despite a rough 2009. He's a superior player by every means and for whatever reason Kotsay is making almost half of a million more than him.

Kapler wins this round.

AFL Rays Player Updates

2009-11-05T11:15:11Z

As previously, noted the Rays have 4 pitchers throwing for the Phoenix team in the Arizona Fall League, along with middle infielder Shawn O'Malley and catcher Nevin Ashley. Here is a stats update through Tuesday's game. Please keep in mind this is an extreme hitter's league and these are extremely small sample sizes.

Hitters:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB
League Average	0.284	0.363	0.444	0.807
Shawn O'Malley	0.319	0.396	0.34	0.737	47
Nevin Ashley	0.359	0.395	0.615	1.011	39

-O'Malley is who we thought he was. He led the Florida State League in On-Base-Percentage with a slugging percentage dangerously close to his batting average. That means he is basically the king of the swinging bunt. He was also named the Organizational Base Runner of the Year or the OBRY.

-Ashley has been a very pleasant surprise at the plate to all except for Jamie Cevallos, Ben Zobrist's Swing Mechanic who has been working with Ashley. He was the Organizational Defensive Player of the Year or the ODPY. Not bad for a catcher, where you can put up with mediocre offense more so than other positions. Ashley hit a walkoff grand slam in a Fall Ball game.

Pitchers:

	IP	H /9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
League Average		10.1	0.98	4.2	7.81
Mitch Talbot	14.2	12.68	1.27	1.27	5.7
Paul Phillips	6.1	10.33	0	5.9	4.43
Heath Rollins	6.1	20.66	1.48	2.95	5.9
Matt Gorgen	4.2	23.57	2.14	8.57	15

There's nothing too exciting here. Strikeout numbers have been dismal outside of Gorgen who has an artificial boost from giving up so many hits. Hopefully, they can improve on these numbers. Gorgen has been named to the Fall Ball Rising Star Game roster which will be played this weekend.

Tampa Bay Rays Continue To Buck Trends And Set New Ones; Market Exploitation 101

2009-11-04T11:00:30Z

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are never going to be major spenders in the free agent market like their AL East Rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Instead, this team is built on, and will continue to be built on, things like: the amateur draft, international signings and development, shrewd free agent signings, and the occasional risky trade. In the Andrew Friedman era we've seen examples of nearly all of these scenarios; the drafting of Evan Longoria, the signing of Akinori Iwamura, the signing of Carlos Pena, and the Delmon Young/Scott Kazmir trades just to name a few.

Much to our collective chagrin, not all of the Rays moves are going to work as planned. For every Pena, there will be a Hee Sop Choi. For every Matt Garza and Ben Zobrist trade there will be deals like the ones involving Dioner Navarro and Edwin Jackson that don't exactly work as hoped. To be successful, the Rays not only need to follow the good process practice, but they must also excel in spotting market inefficiencies and exploiting them fully.

After the 2007 season the Rays made a conscious effort to improve their defense. They sought out cheap and effective defenders (Jason Bartlett, Gabe Gross) and built an American League Championship team around it. Defense has always been an important part of the game, but after seeing the Rays blueprint for success, many other teams went into 2009 looking for that same success.

Teams like the Mariners(trading Yuniesky Betancourt and replacing him with Jack Wilson as well as acquiring Franklin Gutierrez), Rangers (moving Michael Young for Elvis Andrus) and the Tigers (Adam Everett, Gerald Laird) all improved their defense and their win totals. In many ways because of the Rays success defense became the new version of Moneyball. This past off-season, teams shied away from offense only players and looked for a more readily available and cheap asset that can be found in a variety of places. However, defense isn't the only efficiency the Rays have tried to recently exploit.

In 2007, the Rays took a shot on a rehabbing Al Reyes and in return received a solid season from the oft-injured veteran. It was no surprise when Reyes flamed out in 2008, but he gave the Rays more production than any of us could've imagined. Also in 2007, the Rays traded for another oft-injured reliever in Grant Balfour, who had been placed on a few scrap heaps before landing with Tampa Bay. The Rays gambled on Seth McClung's potential in favor of Balfour's. In 2008, Balfour exceeded everyone's expectations and was a top three reliever in the American League; in 2009, he regressed to the top 15 or 20. Of course, there are names like Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen that didn't work out as well, however, the process was and still is good. We should all expect the Rays to continue dabbling in the injured reliever market in hopes of finding that next diamond in the rough.

The Rays were used to selecting at the top of the draft before 2009. Under the current regime we've added Evan Longoria, David Price and Tim Beckham at the top of the draft board. However, in 2009 the Rays were faced with a lower draft pick for the first time in franchise history. While it was never publicly acknowledged, the Rays seemed to target "toolsy," but injured players, especially in the beginning of the draft. With their first four picks they selected four injured prep stars. Once again, the plan didn't work perfectly as the projected easy sign, Levon Washington is set to play at a junior college and Kenny Diekroeger stayed committed to Stanford. However, third round selection, Todd Glaesmann, is projected to be an above average center fielder or corner outfielder. Meanwhile fourth round pick, Luke Bailey, may be the most talented catcher in the draft. The Rays will have to wait a bit longer, especially in the case of Bailey, who already faces an uphill battle as a catching prospect, but if all goes well the Rays will have secured a few first round talents without handing out a seven figure bonus to any draft pick.

Yesterday, the Rays may have uncovered another market inefficiency by executing the first "sign and trade" that we've seen in recent baseball history; trading Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez. As far as the trade goes, in a vacuum it's win for the Pirates. They get a three-win second basemen, who is signed for the 2010 season at well below market value. However, when you take the deal in context, Iwamura's days with the Rays were in the single digits no matter how you look at it and they were able to get something with everybody knowing that.

In actuality, it's a win-win for both parties. The Pirates get that three-win second basemen and the Rays are basically getting something for nothing. Once again, Aki is a fine player and worth every penny of the $4.85 million dollar salary, but the Rays have better and cheaper options in Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Willy Aybar, who in total will make less than Iwamura in 2010. In return for a player that had as good of a chance as you or I playing for the Rays in 2010, they get a 26 year-old relief pitcher who projects to be at least an average middle reliever. Jesse Chavez is young, has had major league success and most importantly is cheap and controllable(with options).

I don't expect this sort of deal to become the norm in baseball because the system is not set up for many of these trade opportunities like the NBA. However, the Rays surveyed their limited options, and were able to trade a player who they had no use for and still get a Major League ready chip in return. They also save themselves the money it would've cause to buy out Iwamura's option.

Chavez may turn out to be nothing more than an average reliever and that's alright. He is under team control for five years and could fill a variety of roles for the Rays. If the worst case scenario plays out and Chavez is deemed a "bust," then all the Rays would have lost is time and patience. The deal from a talent prospective isn't extremely impressive, but the Rays finding yet another way to acquire useful talent without using a lot of resources is very.

Rosenthal: Rays Will Receive Jesse Chavez in Return For Akinori Iwamura

2009-11-03T22:38:24Z

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Jesse Chavez, left, and right fielder Delwyn Young build a tower out of drinking cups during a rain delay of their baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Browse more photos »

As seen here.

Jesse Chavez is a 26-year-old right-handed reliever formerly of the Texas Rangers organization. He moved to Pittsburgh in the Kip Wells deal of 2006 and has pitched out of their bullpen parts of the last two seasons.

In 82.3 innings in the Majors Chavez has posted a 4.79 FIP and 5.41 tRA. His batted ball profile is similar and he's had issues with home runs. He throws quite hard (an average velocity of 94.4) and features a slider and change-up as secondary pitches. His career contact% against is 78.8% and he's shown affinity for causing hitters to chase outside of the strike zone. He's posted xFIP of 4.1 and 4.48, which is reasonable, albeit a bit presumptuous that his home run issues can be fixed. His fastball appears to be a bit flat, which could be a cause of concern.

Chavez' change-up recorded 13% whiffs and his fastball near 8%. That bodes well, all things considered, and he sort of resembles a poor man's Brandon League. Obviously he's not a sexy name, but baseball knew the Rays were in a difficult position with Akinori Iwamura. There was no way he was returning for that salary and draft compensation was not an option, so the Rays' hands were tied. Chavez has the chance to turn into a nice piece for the 2010 bullpen. In a vacuum, this deal favors the Pirates.

Worth noting is that Chavez' role last year included a MOP of 0.96 - by comparison Grant Balfour's MOP was 1.2 - meaning he was more than just a janitor and a little less than a true set-up man. His career splits to date are expectedly reversed given that great change-up. In 169 plate appearances his OPS versus lefties is .690 and in 191 his OPS against righties is .907. He's Joe Nelson in that regard.

Report: Pittsburgh Pirates Involved in Trade Talks for Akinori Iwamura

2009-11-03T21:19:21Z

@Dejan_Kovacevic: Hearing #Pirates part of trade talks with #Rays Akinori Iwamura.

This would indeed confirm Roger Mooney's earlier report which stated the Rays were working on a deal with a National League team. As for the Pirates, they have some interesting relievers, including one of my long-time favs Joel Hanrahan. No idea what the return would be though. For some back-reading on the Iwamura situation you can check out this post from a few weeks ago.

Topkin: Rays working on Iwamura deal

2009-11-03T19:20:37Z

Topkin: Rays working on Iwamura deal

We've heard Minnesota is the team involved from one source, but as of yet cannot confirm it, so take that with a large grain of salt for now.

Roger Mooney says it's a NL team and the deal will be completed by tonight.

Gone But Not Forgotten: Mike Kelly

2009-11-03T05:11:41Z

While searching for a topic for this week's piece I began, for one reason or another, to think about my favorite (Devil) Ray players of years past. The usual suspects came up; Crawford, Shields, Kazmir, McGriff, etc. A name that appears on my list, and I'm sure no one elses, is Mike Kelly. Hell, I'm sure some(most) Rays fans have no idea who Mike Kelly is.

Michael Raymond Kelly was the Devil Rays starting left fielder in the first game in franchise history.

Kelly was an outstanding collegiate hitter. In fact, while playing for Arizona State in 1991 he was outstanding enough to win the 1991 Golden Spikes Award, given to the top player in the country. The 1991 draft saw Kelly selected second overall by the Atlanta Braves, one spot behind punchy Yankee prospect Brien Taylor. Even after a couple of disappointing minor league seasons Kelly was somehow promoted to the majors in the 1994 season. Kelly would play in 30 games and post an OPS of .806 despite a .300 OBP before the strike shut down the season. In 1995 Kelly would appear in 97 games but starting just 26 of them. His good OPS-fortune from the season before would not transfer over. In his 153 plate appearances Kelly would hit .190 and produce a .572 OPS. Apparently the Braves had seen enough of the outfielder as they would trade him to the Reds in exchange for Chad Fox prior to the 1996 season.

Kelly's stay in the Queen City wouldn't work out any better. He would play in only 19 games for the Reds in 1996 and produce an OPS of .660, though higher than his 1995 total, was still embarrassing. For some reason the in 1997 the Reds felt the need to give Kelly more than double the amount of plate appearances he had received the year before(60 to 151). Kelly took full advantage, turning the 151PA's into an .881 OPS due largely to his absurd .543 slugging percentage. The Reds took full advantage of that fluky season and traded Kelly to the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays in exchange for the man who had been taken two spots behind him in the 1991 draft, Dimitri Young. The Devil Rays would give Kelly something he had always wanted, a starting job. Although he would end up splitting most of the at bats with the immortal Rich Butler, Mike Kelly would play more than he ever had before and the 12 year old version of myself would be there in the left field seats every game, watching him, cultivating my love of the game. He'd finish up the season with a slash line of .240/.295/.401 and be released after spring training the following year. Kelly signed with the Rockies in 1999, but would only get two at bats all season. Those would be the final two at bats he'd see in a major league uniform.

After being out of baseball from 2000-2002 Kelly signed a minor league contract with the Royals prior to the 2003 season. He arguably had his best season as a professional baseball player that season, hitting .296/.382/495 in full time duty with the Royals AAA team. Released following the season Kelly gave it one last shot with the Yankees at the age of 34. He hit resonably well (.784 OPS) but was never going to get the call from New York and hung up his cleates for good at the end of the season.

I Google'd my damndest trying to find out what Mike Kelly is doing with his life these days but my efforts came up empty. His Wikipedia entry may be the least populated page ever. No matter what he is doing now---selling insurance? Used cars? Both?---I hope he has fond memories of that god-awful inaugural Devil Rays team. I know I do. Thanks Mike.

via www.autograph-sports.com

Regarding J.P. Howell's "Issues" As Closer

2009-11-02T19:28:08Z

I've heard and read a few comments saying the Rays really need to invest in a closer - oxymoron - because J.P. Howell just isn't cut out of the job. The Rays should sign someone like [Veteran Pitcher] so Howell can go back to roving as a fireman and leave the saves to a more qualified arm. Naturally, I was befuddled when I viewed his ERA in save situations. ERA lacks in quality and I would never encourage using it as a meaningful measure, but the casual fan eats it up like chocolate-coated ham. Have a look for yourselves:

Situation	IP	SO%	uBB%	HR%	ERA	FIP
Sv	26	32.8	14.7	2.6	2.77	3.97
Non-Sv	40.7	25.3	8	2.5	2.88	3.5

A better ERA and only a slightly worse FIP. Here's a list of things we know after looking at the above data:

1. J.P. Howell is a good relief pitcher.

2. 40 innings is not a large sample size and leaves a lot of room for variance.

3. 26 innings is even smaller.

4. Howell's issues with walks were almost evened out by his increase in strikeouts.

5. The Rays shut him down due to fatigue.

Nothing indicates Howell is incapable of closing games. Jonathan Papelbon had a 3.1 FIP in save situations this year. Francisco Rodriguez went to the N.L. and still had a FIP around 4.37 in save situations. Jose Valverde's was north of 3.7 too. The list goes on and on.

I don't particularly care if Howell is the closer or not next year - heck, him not being the closer probably saves on arbitration costs - but to say he "doesn't have ‘it'" or buckled in his chance is ridiculous. He pitched fine, and if you're willing to make broad statements like that based on less than 30 innings of work then bigger issues are in play.

Howell may or may not close next year, but it won't be because he somehow failed in his duties this season.

Note: I hand-calculated the FIP and used a constant of 3.2. So the exact totals are about a third of a run off FanGraph's FIP.

Sky Kalkman moves on

2009-11-02T18:06:22Z

Sky Kalkman moves on

Go quietly into the night sweet prince.

Really though, going to miss him, BTB is in capable hands however.