Fake Teams

Fake Teams Fantasy Baseball Chat Tonight at 8:30 PM EST

2012-02-13T22:00:20Z

It's Monday, and that means it's time again for another fantasy baseball chat. I'll be starting tonight at 8:30 PM EST (5:30 out here for me in California), and will be taking questions until around either 9:30 PM or 10:00 PM depending on how good the questions are. Have questions about any of our rankings? Prospect questions? Keepers as well? Stop by and I'll try to answer as many questions as I can during those time frames.

Fantasy Baseball 2012 - Early ADP - Starting Pitchers

2012-02-13T21:00:13Z

We come to the second to last installment of the early ADP trends over at Mock Draft Central. We take a gander at the Starting Pitchers. So many theories have been bandied about, how this system works and people who don't draft starters till after round so and so. Well it's all well and good in theory, until you start drafting your team. Best advice I can drop on ya is don't chase wins, period. Wins are a wonky stat. So enjoy the pretty little chart and have a nice slice of my analysis afterwards.

Player	Pos	Team	ADP	Earliest	Latest	Draft %
1 (8)	Justin Verlander	SP	DET	9.18	2	28	100.0%
2 (15)	Roy Halladay	SP	PHI	15.28	5	27	100.0%
3 (16)	Clayton Kershaw	SP	LA	15.95	4	28	100.0%
4 (21)	Cliff Lee	SP	PHI	20.64	11	38	100.0%
5 (24)	Tim Lincecum	SP	SF	24.71	15	44	100.0%
6 (27)	Felix Hernandez	SP	SEA	27.25	19	47	100.0%
7 (29)	CC Sabathia	SP	NYY	31.04	19	61	100.0%
8 (32)	Cole Hamels	SP	PHI	31.94	20	58	100.0%
9 (34)	Jered Weaver	SP	ANA	33.69	18	56	100.0%
10 (37)	David Price	SP	TB	39.10	25	66	100.0%
11 (42)	Dan Haren	SP	ANA	43.37	30	73	100.0%
12 (48)	Zack Greinke	SP	MIL	50.15	33	73	100.0%
13 (50)	Yovani Gallardo	SP	MIL	51.29	34	87	100.0%
14 (51)	Jon Lester	SP	BOS	52.22	32	79	100.0%
15 (61)	Matt Cain	SP	SF	61.13	39	85	100.0%
16 (63)	Stephen Strasburg	SP	WAS	62.46	35	90	100.0%
17 (65)	James Shields	SP	TB	67.74	44	104	100.0%
18 (69)	Ian Kennedy	SP	ARI	70.09	36	98	100.0%
19 (72)	Mat Latos	SP	CIN	72.14	46	126	100.0%
20 (75)	Madison Bumgarner	SP	SF	75.68	53	110	100.0%
21 (84)	C.J. Wilson	SP	ANA	86.57	43	119	100.0%
22 (85)	Dan Hudson	SP	ARI	86.57	63	127	100.0%
23 (87)	Ricky Romero	SP	TOR	86.99	61	128	100.0%
24 (91)	Josh Beckett	SP	BOS	92.79	64	151	100.0%
25 (92)	Tommy Hanson	SP	ATL	93.89	64	136	100.0%
26 (95)	Michael Pineda	SP	NYY	97.07	62	128	100.0%
27 (96)	Josh Johnson	SP	MIA	97.90	50	-ND-	99.9%
28 (100)	Matt Moore	SP	TB	101.46	49	-ND-	99.9%
29 (104)	Gio Gonzalez	SP	WAS	103.85	64	133	100.0%
30 (105)	Adam Wainwright	SP	STL	103.96	59	304	100.0%
31 (111)	Matt Garza	SP	CHC	110.67	64	152	100.0%
32 (113)	Johnny Cueto	SP	CIN	115.94	93	186	100.0%
33 (114)	Brandon Beachy	SP	ATL	116.11	84	-ND-	99.9%
34 (115)	Yu Darvish	SP	TEX	118.36	57	-ND-	99.9%
35 (117)	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	WAS	120.38	86	-ND-	99.9%
36 (125)	Chris Carpenter	SP	STL	125.14	85	-ND-	99.9%
37 (127)	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	TB	128.89	85	-ND-	99.9%
38 (129)	Anibal Sanchez	SP	MIA	129.68	90	-ND-	99.9%
39 (135)	Cory Luebke	SP	SD	138.06	94	-ND-	99.9%
40 (136)	Tim Hudson	SP	ATL	138.14	104	-ND-	99.9%
41 (142)	Shaun Marcum	SP	MIL	147.18	104	-ND-	99.9%
42 (146)	Max Scherzer	SP	DET	149.90	95	-ND-	99.6%
43 (149)	Ervin Santana	SP	ANA	150.92	102	-ND-	99.5%
44 (154)	Ubaldo Jimenez	SP	CLE	155.34	109	-ND-	99.6%
45 (165)	Derek Holland	SP	TEX	169.54	114	-ND-	99.6%
46 (167)	Hiroki Kuroda	SP	NYY	170.72	120	-ND-	99.0%
47 (174)	Wandy Rodriguez	SP	HOU	174.79	132	-ND-	98.8%
48 (179)	Trevor Cahill	SP	ARI	177.96	124	-ND-	98.7%
49 (180)	Jaime Garcia	SP	STL	178.69	122	-ND-	98.1%
50 (182)	Brandon Morrow	SP	TOR	181.72	111	-ND-	96.2%
51 (184)	Doug Fister	SP	DET	184.21	80	-ND-	96.8%
52 (192)	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	COL	192.74	137	-ND-	95.6%
53 (193)	John Danks	SP	CHW	193.09	145	-ND-	95.7%
54 (200)	Justin Masterson	SP	CLE	199.99	147	-ND-	94.3%
55 (201)	Brandon McCarthy	SP	OAK	204.58	139	-ND-	93.8%
56 (202)	Colby Lewis	SP	TEX	204.78	160	-ND-	92.3%
57 (205)	Clay Buchholz	SP	BOS	208.15	122	-ND-	89.9%
58 (208)	Alexi Ogando	SP	TEX	210.27	160	-ND-	91.5%
59 (212)	Jair Jurrjens	SP	ATL	211.36	139	-ND-	90.7%
60 (215)	Scott Baker	SP	MIN	213.69	156	-ND-	87.4%
61 (216)	Ryan Vogelsong	SP	SF	214.26	139	-ND-	86.4%
62 (222)	Javier Vazquez	SP	FA	216.60	139	-ND-	87.0%
63 (225)	Phil Hughes	SP	NYY	217.58	217	-ND-	7.9%
64 (226)	Julio Teheran	SP	ATL	218.54	210	-ND-	10.2%
65 (227)	Shelby Miller	SP	STL	219.35	211	-ND-	11.5%
66 (232)	Jake Peavy	SP	CHW	220.22	203	-ND-	12.1%
67 (234)	Dillon Gee	SP	NYM	221.28	214	-ND-	0.2%
68 (237)	Jonathon Niese	SP	NYM	221.95	215	-ND-	13.9%
69 (238)	Edinson Volquez	SP	SD	222.00	201	-ND-	15.2%
70 (240)	Tim Stauffer	SP	SD	222.16	212	-ND-	15.1%
71 (248)	Jonathan Sanchez	SP	KC	225.02	205	-ND-	20.0%
72 (252)	Erik Bedard	SP	PIT	225.53	209	-ND-	21.3%
73 (255)	Roy Oswalt	SP	FA	226.03	121	-ND-	81.4%
74 (258)	Ricky Nolasco	SP	MIA	226.73	192	-ND-	24.0%
75 (260)	Carlos Zambrano	SP	MIA	227.34	215	-ND-	19.5%
76 (264)	Vance Worley	SP	PHI	227.48	128	-ND-	77.7%
77 (266)	Johan Santana	SP	NYM	228.00	145	-ND-	77.1%
78 (268)	R.A. Dickey	SP	NYM	228.18	189	-ND-	76.8%
79 (274)	Edwin Jackson	SP	WAS	229.48	159	-ND-	31.5%
80 (279)	Ted Lilly	SP	LA	230.18	158	-ND-	49.0%
81 (281)	Matt Harrison	SP	TEX	230.48	194	-ND-	29.3%
82 (282)	Gavin Floyd	SP	CHW	230.49	207	-ND-	28.9%
83 (285)	Ivan Nova	SP	NYY	230.80	130	-ND-	55.5%
84 (291)	Bud Norris	SP	HOU	231.15	161	-ND-	62.5%
85 (294)	Brett Anderson	SP	OAK	231.44	182	-ND-	72.0%
86 (295)	Mike Minor	SP	ATL	231.45	181	-ND-	40.6%
87 (297)	Mark Buehrle	SP	MIA	232.19	165	-ND-	49.3%
88 (300)	Chad Billingsley	SP	LA	232.26	171	-ND-	67.6%
89 (308)	Ryan Dempster	SP	CHC	233.31	171	-ND-	46.5%
90 (312)	Josh Collmenter	SP	ARI	234.05	204	-ND-	39.0%
91 (314)	Francisco Liriano	SP	MIN	234.13	188	-ND-	41.4%
92 (323)	Mike Leake	SP	CIN	235.75	228	-ND-	12.9%
93 (325)	Kyle Lohse	SP	STL	235.75	228	-ND-	5.1%
94 (330)	Alfredo Aceves	SP	BOS	236.39	205	-ND-	45.8%
95 (336)	Rick Porcello	SP	DET	236.79	229	-ND-	4.3%
96 (337)	Drew Pomeranz	SP	COL	236.79	229	-ND-	4.6%
97 (338)	Jeff Niemann	SP	TB	236.79	229	-ND-	4.5%
98 (342)	Luke Hochevar	SP	KC	237.76	208	-ND-	60.1%
99 (347)	Jorge DeLaRosa	SP	COL	237.82	230	-ND-	16.2%
100 (352)	Brad Peacock	SP	WAS	239.89	232	-ND-	3.7%
101 (363)	Homer Bailey	SP	CIN	242.99	235	-ND-	9.6%
102 (367)	Henderson Alvarez	SP	TOR	245.06	237	-ND-	6.4%
103 (377)	Guillermo Moscoso	SP	COL	261.60	253	-ND-	3.1%
104 (378)	Bartolo Colon	SP	OAK	261.60	253	-ND-	0.6%
105 (381)	Aaron Harang	SP	LA	263.67	255	-ND-	9.4%
106 (392)	Chris Capuano	SP	LA	272.98	264	-ND-	3.6%
107 (394)	Brian Matusz	SP	BAL	274.01	265	-ND-	8.6%
108 (395)	Jarrod Parker	SP	OAK	274.01	265	-ND-	1.7%
109 (397)	James McDonald	SP	PIT	275.04	266	-ND-	6.0%
110 (399)	A.J. Burnett	SP	NYY	278.15	269	-ND-	3.1%
111 (400)	Juan Nicasio	SP	COL	279.18	270	-ND-	1.2%
112 (401)	Jacob Turner	SP	DET	279.18	270	-ND-	1.7%
113 (405)	Josh Tomlin	SP	CLE	282.28	273	-ND-	2.4%
114 (408)	Hisashi Iwakuma	SP	SEA	285.38	276	-ND-	0.6%
115 (409)	Randy Wolf	SP	MIL	285.38	276	-ND-	3.7%

Taking a pitcher in Rd 1 is not my cup of tea, unless its AL/NL only. Even then I will prolly err on the side of the hitters, because they play everyday. So Verlander going in round 1 seems awesome to me because if someone wants to waste a pick on him then better for me.
My draft theory for starting pitching is simple, I take 3 hitters at the top of the draft and then with my 4th and 5th round pick I take the best two available starters. Recently it has been Greinke and Haren. I like taking them back to back because, guess what, I don't have to take another starter for 6 more rounds. Which in theory should give you an almost complete hitting roster (minus catcher because that's what the last pick is for).
Everyone has lots of like and dislikes when it comes to SP, best advice when in doubt take a NL SP. The league as a whole has a better ERA and WHIP ratio. I'm not really looking for wins because they can't be counted on.
Alot of pitchers are also hampered with the whole innings limit scenario. There are alot of top talent names that won't pitch 200 innings this year and are being drafted in the 6th-10th rounds. It starts with Strasburg and runs all the way through Jordan Zimmermann. In a keeper league yea it makes sense but in a one year league, barring inning restrictions in your league, those 50 innings are a big difference to me.
I am not a fan of Gio Gonzalez at all. I think he was aided like most A's pitchers by ballpark effects. I also don't trust his walk rate one bit.
I love me some Anibal Sanchez. Think he is poised to break-out even further this year than last. Once again wins are wonky and he only had 8 last year. But outperformed his ERA the last 2 years. 15 wins and 200 k's in Rd 10. Raises hand and says yes please.
Don't underestimate the power of PETCO, Luebke is getting all types of mid-round love already. Guys like Stauffer and Volquez are decent 5th starter guys with an asterisk because they will pitch in a haven for SP.
Don't forget about those willy veterans, I personally love these guys and have a hard time breaking myself away from guys that out perform their ERA. Guys like Ted Lilly, Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy and Gavin Floyd.
Sleepers are everywhere for SP. Some late round gems that I think will do well this year are Luke Hochevar, Brad Peacock and Chris Capuano. Hochevar seemed to turn the corner at the end of last year, overall his numbers are mediocre but his last 10 starts or so really showed something or at least to me they did. The other 2 are benefits of ballpark which can never be a bad thing for your periphs.

The key to any starting pitching is streaming. I use it to my advantage all to much and write about it on other sites. Getting key starts from 2 start guys is the key to victory in any H2H league. Free piece of advice for an advantage to streaming, check the daily betting lines for the games upcoming. The guys who determine that stuff get paid a crap-ton of money to not be wrong and to set odds that look at every facet of the game. So happy drafting and good luck. Question, comments and sentimental hellos are always welcome.

UFC on Fuel In-Depth Preview: Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman

2012-02-13T20:00:35Z

The night's co-main event is a heavyweight scrap between Stefan Struve and Dave "Peewee" Herman. Just a few years ago both were considered bright prospects in the always-thin heavyweight division, and while Struve has fallen against top tier competition, Herman remains untested at the top of the sport, and will look to catapult from this win into just such a test.

Stefan Struve

Struve is the tallest fighter in the UFC, and after debuting just two days after his 21^st birthday was one of the youngest debuting fighters ever in the promotion. Struve’s relatively-slight build for a heavyweight, combined with his long limbs, makes a unique match-up for any opponent he is paired with.

Recent Fights

Struve is on an impressive 6-2 run in the UFC since dropping his debut to Junior Dos Santos, however the Dutch giant has been unable to string together a long chain of victories in his UFC tenure to-date. His three fight winning streak was snapped by a Roy Nelson TKO, and after scoring TKO wins over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle, Struve was again stopped early, this time by Travis Browne. Struve managed to avoid his first ever consecutive losses by trading blows in a tight first round against Pat Barry, then locking on a fight-ending triangle and surviving a Barry slam which only tightened the hold in the second round.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The long and relatively-lean frame of Struve provides both his greatest strengths and weaknesses inside the cage. On the mat Struve’s long limbs make it easier for him to catch opponents with submissions, and he has finished half his wins with taps. His reach allows Struve to keep opponents on the outside of their own range when Struve is properly working his jab and straight punches. On the other hand, when opponents are able to get inside on Struve, he is often outmuscled and able to be battered by tight punches, which cost Struve dearly in losses to Nelson and dos Santos, and nearly did in his bout with Paul Buentello.

Fantasy Impact

I strongly dislike this match-up for Struve. While Herman didn’t dazzle in his debut, he doesn’t have a history of breaking easily, and has lots of power in his hands which makes me doubtful Struve can last 15 minutes against him. If Struve is to win, it will likely come by way of an early submission so take him in round one with the tap. In fantasy betting Struve is a +100, slightly less payoff than the Vegas books, and I’d advise against playing on the Dutchman in any form.

Dave Herman analysis after the jump.

Dave Herman

Herman was considered one of the hottest prospects in the heavyweight division, and his signing with Elite XC was met with great excitement. His undefeated record was lost when he suffered a TKO defeat to Choi Mu Bae, but Herman was able recover from the set back and finally find his was to the UFC.

Recent Fights

Herman has fought seven times since his first career loss, with the only loss since coming as a result of disqualification when Herman hit Sokoudjou with illegal knees. Herman has sandwiched three fight winning streaks around the loss, knocking out Josh Barnes, Don Frye and Jim York prior to the DQ, and submitting Michal Kita then taking a decision from Yoshihiro Nakao to earn his UFC debut. Herman took on Golden Glory’s BJJ black belt John-Olav Einemo, and while both men had each other rocked during the bout, took home the TKO victory near the midpoint of the fight.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Herman is a fighter out of the famed Team Quest gym, and as such has had ample opportunity to work on his wrestling with some of the best in the business. By using that wrestling to keep fights standing, Herman has proven to be a devastating knockout artist, with fifteen KO victories and a pair of submission-to-punches victories in his 21 career wins. While he had previously only shown rear naked chokes in his two true submissions prior, Herman displayed a dangerous ground game as well in locking on a fight-ending omoplata against Kita, proving he can be dangerous wherever the fight goes.

Fantasy Impact

As the stronger man, and having experienced training at a wrestling-heavy gym, Herman should be able to control where this fight takes place against Struve, and that is a dangerous proposition for the tall Dutchman. Take Herman to get inside Struve’s range and hit the big tree until it falls over late in the first round.

2012 Tiered Positional Fantasy Rankings: First Base

2012-02-13T19:00:26Z

Spring training approaches, meaning draft season is on the way as well. Now's as good of a time as any to unveil the latest in Fake Teams' series of draft rankings, our tiered model. This is a format I have used for a few seasons now, and have continued to tweak and refine, in the hopes of giving you even more accuracy every spring.

There are five different tiers. Five-star players are the best, and one-star players are your more fungible fantasy assets. For the sake of easy understanding, star rankings generally come down to their auction values and the number of categories they should contribute to. A five-star player is expected to be worth at least $30 of production and contribute in all five categories, a four-star player worth at least $20 and good for four categories, three-star players are $10 and up (and, you guessed it, three categories), two-star are your single-digit buys that you hope to get value out of, and one-star are the kind of guys you throw $1 at and hope to get something out of. But if not, hey, it was just $1.

Organizing players like this allows you to differentiate between the remaining assets at your draft, and make the proper decisions in terms of timing. If the last four-star first baseman just went off the board, and you need a first baseman, but all of a sudden you see there are 10 very similar three-star first basemen still on the board... what's the rush? Try to find a four-star player at another position instead, as these rankings, constructed out of projected dollar values and categories, work across position. That's why you would have seen Buster Posey as both a three-star catcher and three-star first baseman in the 2011 rankings, even if he has more value as a catcher: he's a three-star player, as position was already taken into account in the creation of the star rating.

This also allows you to throw all of the positions together into one huge list, ranked by tier, and be able to see a loosely-organized but complete list of every player's fantasy value on draft day. And, since Fake Teams already has rankings that come at you from different angles than this, my hope is to just give you one more tool and viewpoint with which you can work on succeeding with this year.

Five Star
PLAYER	POS	TEAM
Pujols, Albert	1B	ANA
Cabrera, Miguel	1B	DET
Gonzalez, Adrian	1B	BOS
Votto, Joey	1B	CIN

Pujols remains the king at first base, even after his "worst" season in his career in 2011. Moving from pitcher-friendly Busch to the more neutral Los Angeles of Anaheim should help his numbers out, even with the switch to the more difficult league. Miguel Cabrera, if he actually is going to stick at third base (or at least earn eligibility there) might actually be the most valuable player from a fantasy perspective in 2012.

Adrian Gonzalez was the most-valuable first baseman last year, and another year removed from shoulder surgery should mean he'll be as good or better in 2012. Joey Votto was slightly disappointing in 2011, but not enough for me to want to remove him from the five-star tier. If he bumps his homers back up to 2010 levels, he's an easy five, but even if he doesn't, he barely missed this tier last season anyway.

Four Star
PLAYER	POS	TEAM
Fielder, Prince	1B	DET
Teixeira, Mark	1B	NYA
Napoli, Mike	C,1B	TEX
Santana, Carlos	C,1B	CLE

Fielder's excellent 2011 season but him just under five-star value, and with a tougher hitter's park and in the tougher league, I have a hard time thinking he'll top that campaign. Four stars it is, even if you ignore that he hasn't put together two dominating seasons in a row, ever. Taking that into consideration makes this four-star status even easier.

Carlos Santana gets a huge boost to his value by virtue of lining up behind the plate, but he is first base eligible, and racks up plenty of plate appearances because of it. He's borderline, as a four-star candidate, but I think he'll just make it in terms of value.

Three Star
PLAYER	POS	TEAM
Morse, Michael	1B,LF	WAS
Konerko, Paul	1B,DH	CHA
Young, Michael	1B,3B,DH	TEX
Berkman, Lance	1B,RF	SLN
Reynolds, Mark	1B,3B	BAL
Hosmer, Eric	1B	KCA
Freeman, Freddie	1B	ATL
Cuddyer, Michael	1B,RF	COL

Morse and Konerko both have the sticks to sneak into the four-star tier, but I'm much more comfortable targeting them for the $15-18 range instead. Michael Young's value lies in his playing time, but neither his bat nor his at-bats were a hindrance in 2011. Lance Berkman might not replicate his 2011 exactly, but, except for the injury-plagued 2010 season, he's always good for this level of production. Mark Reynolds is someone I wouldn't want on my real team, but if the Orioles want to play him every day, by all means, enjoy the $12-15 he produces.

Eric Hosmer didn't do a whole lot last year, but with a full season to play and a partial 2011 under his belt, he's a good bet to squeeze out at least $10, along the same lines as Freddie Freeman in 2011, even. Cuddyer bounces around in terms of his production, but he now has Coors to buoy his bat, rounding out a strong bottom to the three-star tier.

Two Star
PLAYER	POS	TEAM
Dunn, Adam	1B,DH	CHA
Morneau, Justin	1B	MIN
Pena, Carlos	1B	TBA
Duda, Lucas	1B,RF	NYN
Lee, Carlos	1B,LF	HOU
Loney, James	1B	LAN
Lind, Adam	1B	TOR
Davis, Ike	1B	NYN
Howard, Ryan	1B	PHI
Goldschmidt, Paul	1B	ARI
Carp, Mike	1B,LF	SEA
Smoak, Justin	1B	SEA
Davis, Chris	1B,3B	BAL
Murphy, Daniel	1B,2B,3B	NYN

Dunn's 2011 was horrific, but it just feels unlikely he'll be valued any lower than in the $5 range at draft day. That's probably a smart buy, as long as you draft some insurance, too. The same can be said for Justin Morneau: there is huge potential here if his concussions finally stop bothering him, but if they don't, you don't want to be caught paying top dollar for him again, either. Carlos Pena moves back to Tampa Bay, and he didn't quite make the three-star tier when in a hitter-friendly park for lefties. I see no reason to give him a bump after leaving.

Lucas Duda has a powerful bat, and the fences at Citi Field are moving in. I expect we'll see Ike Davis outperform a lot of projections because of this, too, making both of these guys possible three-star players -- until we see how the fence plays, there's no reason to guarantee more from them than two-star production.

Carlos Lee is a shadow of old, but he's certainly capable of being a two-star first baseman. Ryan Howard might actually be much better than this ranking suggests, but given we don't know how long he will be out -- or if his Achilles will continue to bother him when he does return -- and I'm therefore not about to depend on him. Mike Carp and Justin Smoak should provide offense out of Seattle; were they not stuck there, I'd consider both of them for higher ranks. Reality keeps them from getting that.

One Star
PLAYER	POS	TEAM
Sanchez, Gaby	1B	FLO
Encarnacion, Edwin	1B,3B,DH	TOR
LaRoche, Adam	1B	WAS
Moreland, Mitch	1B,RF	TEX
Allen, Brandon	1B	OAK
Jones, Garrett	1B,RF	PIT
Helton, Todd	1B	COL
Huff, Aubrey	1B,OF	SFN
Kotchman, Casey	1B	CLE
Belt, Brandon	1B,LF	SFN
Wigginton, Ty	1B,3B,LF	PHI
Hughes, Luke	1B,2B	MIN
Trumbo, Mark	1B	ANA
Carter, Chris	1B	OAK
Rivera, Juan	1B,LF	LAN
Rizzo, Anthony	1B	CHN
Barton, Daric	1B	OAK
Guzman, Jesus	1B	SDN
Overbay, Lyle	1B	ARI
Kennedy, Adam	1B,2B,3B	LAN

I like some of these players more than others -- Gaby Sanchez could sneak into the two-star level, Todd Helton might have another useful Coors-aided season in his veteran bag of tricks, Brandon Belt might actually get to play in San Francisco at some point, Mark Trumbo at third might not end up requiring a disaster task force to clean up. Generally, though, after you get past those names, these are the kinds of players you're going to want to throw $1 at in AL- or NL-only leagues, not your mixed formats.

Fantasy Baseball Spotlight: Cincinnati Reds

2012-02-13T18:00:24Z

If you're looking for a surprise in 2012, I'd say you should take a look at the Reds. Or maybe it's not a surprise? I just haven't heard very many people talk about the Reds as a World Series contender (CAIRO predicts 87 wins and a 2nd place finish) but all you really need to do is make the playoffs and then everyone has an equal chance basically.

I think the Reds can (Nay, WILL!) win the NL Central. No more Pujols, no more Prince, 50 less games of Braun while the Reds got better. That's one way to start to close a 17 game gap from 2011.

So, what's up with the Reds most important fantasy players? Let's take a look.

Best Hitter: Joey Votto

Maybe I was selling him short, but before Votto left the team for a depression-related illness in 2009, I didn't think he was a future star. When he came back though, he was clearly on a path to be one of the best players in the game and he won the MVP in 2010.

Last year he hit .309/.416/.531 with 40 2B, 29 HR, 101 R and 103 RBI. He led the league in OBP, walks, and doubles.

He reminds me a lot of teammate and future Hall of Famer Scott Rolen in terms of production, except that Votto is even better. (Rolen had an extremely low 3.7 BB% last year. That doesn't really have to do with anything I'm talking about, but damn!) I really don't know what Votto's ceiling is, whether he's reached it already, or what the future holds, but he has a chance to join Rolen in the Hall of Fame at his current rate.

It would be surprising if he hit less than .300/.400/.550 with 35 2B, 100 RBI, 30 HR. And if the Reds do make the playoffs, he could be a two-time MVP.

Best Pitcher: Mat Latos

I thought I might put Johnny Cueto here, but what happened to the strikeouts Johnny? 6 k's per 9? No good in my leagues.

Latos strikes out 8.57 per 9 and ran an ERA of 3.47 last year over 194.1 innings, which was more than half-a-run more than 2010 but his FIP was at 3.14. I don't think we have to worry about him moving out of Petco, Latos is one of the better pitchers in the NL. Prediction: 16-8, 3.10 ERA, 200 innings, 200 Ks.

Possible Breakout: Aroldis Chapman, SP

So far, Chapman has been very limited in how valuable he can be to the Reds. Despite having one of the most electric fastballs in baseball, he doesn't know where it's going and he doesn't have much else to offer. He threw his 98 MPH fastball 84% of the time in 2011!

That's the big difference between a fireballer like Chapman, and a guy like Michael Pineda. True, Pineda needs a third pitch... but he has exceptional command and control and at least he has a second pitch! Pretty much every pitcher in baseball with a near 100-MPH fastball is a relief pitcher. The only ones that can start, are usually Cy Young contenders like Justin Verlander, but that is EXTREMELY rare.

Still, if a guy can make the transition, he's definitely going to be a breakout candidate and Chapman is going to get a chance to start. Chapman's greatest strength in terms of results, is that despite a BB/9 above 7(!), he's still very hard to hit. He only gave up 24 hits in 50 innings.

But he's quite the project because Verlander mixes four pitches and only used his fastball 57% of the time in 2011. Right now, Chapman's ceiling looks more like Matt Thornton, Joel Hanrahan, or Neftali Feliz, but perhaps Chapman could become something more. If he stuck as a starter, he could strike out 250 batters but that would probably come with 150 walks unless he learns to hit the catchers mitt.

Possible Disappointment: Johnny Cueto

I guess Chapman could be a breakout or a disappointment, depending on how much you value that fastball.

The scary trend of Johnny Cueto: His K/9 has dropped every year he's been in the majors, from 8.17 in 2008 to 6.00 last year. He had a .249 BABIP against in 2011 and that's definitely going to rise. Cueto might be able to get by and post an ERA of 3.20 (much more likely than the 2.31 he posted last year) but that will only come with a few strikeouts.

I probably would just avoid Cueto altogether.

Rookie Watch: Devin Mesoraco, C

One of the most important rookie watches this year will be Mesoraco, simply because he might have an elite bat at a very scarce position. Only 18 times in history has a catcher hit 35 or more home runs in a season. There have been 169 such seasons by a 1B.

Mesoraco was the 15th overall pick in 2007, but struggled to find a rhythm in the minors until 2010, when he broke out for .302/.377/.587 over 3 levels and 113 games. Last year he hit .289/.371/.484 with 36 doubles and 15 HR as a 23 year old in AAA.

He may struggle in his first full season in the majors, but I expect him to do well, overall. He's not extremely young at 24, and I'll predict: .260/.350/.450 with 15 HR and 70 RBI, possibly winning the Rookie of the Year.

Other Players I Like: Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Madson, Homer Bailey

Ones I'll Avoid in the Draft: Brandon Phillips (declining power, never walks, more valuable in real life than in fantasy where other second baseman have stepped up their offensive game), Scott Rolen (obviously), Ryan Ludwick, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo

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Poll

What is in Aroldis Chapman's future?

2012 Unheralded Head-to-Head Points League Heroes: Carlos Lee

2012-02-13T17:00:22Z

It’s that time of year where players like Matt Moore, Yu Darvish, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper garner all the headlines across the internet (understandable considering the elite talent they each possess). Fantasy baseball players love the new shiny toys and the potential that young budding stars and prospects can provide, but it’s important not to forget about the stalwarts of the MLB. Drafting a veteran past his prime is likely to induce more yawns than "oohs" or "ahhs" from your league mates, but don’t let that stop you. Such players are often consistent, key contributors to fantasy baseball head-to-head (H2H) points league championships, players like Carlos Lee of the Houston Astros.

There’s no shine left on El Caballo and entering 2012 he’s much more boring than "buzz worthy," but, neither truths change the fact that over the last three seasons few outfielders or first basemen (Lee qualifies for both positions in ’12) have been more consistent than Lee in H2H points league scoring.

Since the start of the 2009 season, Carlos Lee has averaged more points than quite a few elite hitters, including Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Howard and former teammates Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. In that time, Lee has averaged exactly as many points as Curtis Granderson, despite being much older while playing in a much weaker lineup:

Player	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	Points	AVG
Carlos Lee	198	493	102	6	68	285	137	170	12	1285	428
Curtis Granderson	303	425	66	25	95	257	210	426	57	1284	428
Hunter Pence	253	528	93	13	72	260	155	338	40	1273	424
Ryan Howard	273	465	90	10	109	365	209	515	10	1254	418
Andrew McCutchen	255	435	95	19	51	199	213	298	78	1246	415
Justin Upton	262	464	96	15	74	243	178	415	59	1198	399
Lance Berkman	211	373	77	4	70	232	266	276	12	1125	375

In January, I ranked Carlos Lee as #21 in my Top 25 Outfielders post and #13 in my Top 25 First Basemen post, and it’s possible he outperforms both those rankings with another solid season in ’12. Meanwhile, although their rankings aren’t specifically focused on H2H points leagues, Tristan Cockroft of ESPN rates Lee as the #18 first basemen and #38 outfielder in his 2012 rankings. Over at Mock Draft Central, Lee is being drafted as the #48 overall outfielder in current ADP reports. For your sake, let’s hope that other owners in your H2H points league are using these sites instead of Fake Teams.

As evidenced by my rankings, I’m not trying to suggest that Lee will outscore Upton, McCutchen or Granderson in ’12 nor that that he should be drafted before them, but rather that he should be a reliable source for over 400 points at a very reasonable price. I do, however, believe he will outscore Mike Stanton (drafted in the third round of a recent CBS mock draft) and potentially Jay Bruce in ’12 due to their penchants for strike outs. In my opinion, it would be best to avoid both Bruce and Stanton and wait for Lee later in the draft.

If you read his blurb in my first base rankings, you know that Carlos Lee is able to maintain his success in this particular scoring format thanks to an impeccable SO% over the last six seasons. Lee has never struck out 100 times in a season, and according to Baseball Reference, since the start of the 2006 season, there has only been one year (2009) in which he finished with a SO% above 10.0. Considering the league average is 17.2%, it’s quite an impressive feat and one that prevents Lee from hurting you the nights he is in your lineup. There’s nothing worse than having a sensational night from one of your premiere players watered down by significant strikeout totals from your second tier hitters.

Also impressive is the fact that Lee has finished with less than 90 RBI only once since 2002 and that happened in 2010, the same season he finished with a .239 BABIP, by far the worst of his career. In fact, were it not for his forgettable and somewhat unlucky '10 season, Lee would have a streak of 11 consecutive 400+ point seasons.

Because his HR totals have decreased each of the past six seasons, his double-digit stolen base days are behind him and the talent surrounding him in Houston has only gotten worse with both Berkman and Pence out of town, it doesn’t seem likely Carlos Lee will exceed his 428 point average, at least not by much. However, considering ’12 marks the final year of his six-year contract with the Astros, there is a legitimate chance Lee could be traded to a contender before the deadline to a team either in need of a LF, 1B or DH. I don’t know about you, but if I owned El Caballo, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in pinstripes in July as the Yankees are currently without a DH and could certainly afford whatever the remainder of his contract looked like at that point. Afterall, Brian Cashman made a similar deal with HOU for Berkman in 2010. Even if he isn't traded, the possibility for a resurgence still exists with the added motivation of playing for one last multi-year deal.

So, while others in your H2H league reach for youth, potential and upside at your draft, don’t forget that Carlos Lee qualifies at two positions and should outscore the likes of Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, BJ Upton, Chris Young, Stanton and other flashier names on the board.

Fantasy Baseball Links 2-13-11

2012-02-13T16:00:53Z

Zack Greinke Player Projection No. 61 | Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

It's great to see Zack Greinke getting the love he deserves. He was one of the most unlucky pitchers in 2011, and yet one of the most dominant. Among the league leaders in K/9 and BB/9. I am expecting more of 2009. I will be investing as a solid #1.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline - #10 Starting Pitcher; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com - #12 Starting Pitcher & #39 Overall; RotoChamp - #54 Overall; Mock Draft Central - #12 Starting Pitcher & #48 Overall Projection: This could probably come back to bite me, and if any of the guys I play in leagues with read this I'm screwed, but I really like Greinke this year. I probably like him too much. His division has gotten easier this year compared to last. To me, his floor is last season, and ceiling is Cy Young Award. Personally, I'm leaning closer to Cy Young Award. 18 W, 2.98 ERA, 215 K, 1.12 WHIP in 220 IP.

To Draft Or Not To Draft: Why Brandon Belt Is Not A Lock To Produce In 2012 | Rotoprofessor

What Brian Sabian is doing in SF can infuriate. Playing time will be a question mark, but a healthy Bandon Belt will force his way into playing time. I expect Belt and Mesoraco to be strong ROY contenders. Invest!!!!

Belt still showed off his power in 2011 and there is a ton of potential, but it is hard to consider him a lock to produce in 2012. First, he may not get the opportunity. Second, he needs time to adjust to the upper levels of professional baseball. I would expect him to open the year at Triple-A, getting regular AB and trying to figure things out. If he does and the Giants need an offensive boost, then he should get an opportunity. Unfortunately, he is going to need something (Huff/Schierholtz struggles for example) to get that chance. Is it likely to happen? Yes, but don’t consider it a given.

Heath Bell won't be as loud for fantasy baseball saves :: KFFL - Article

Wrong side of 33, skills erosion, player that could be delt from Miami should they drop from contention, buyer beware...

Still, I'd rather avoid ringing Bell (almost made it through pun-free) and take a chance on Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria and Carlos Marmol, or wait on Santos or Betancourt or take a chance on Kenley Jansen winning the job eventually. Bell will still be a fine buy at the right price, as long as you don't expect his increasingly hittable arsenal to magically return him to previously overpowering levels. He isn't the Liberty Bell yet, but the crack will get worse.

Ricky Nolaso and ERA-FIP Differences " MLB Dirt

Great article below. I beg people to stop expecting Nolasko to put it together. PASS. Let another owner gamble.

With Spring Training getting under way very very soon, it means that it is time to have those fantasy baseball keepers close to figured out. Looking at one of my teams, one player that I am stuck on is Ricky Nolasco. I have been doing a lot of looking at Nolasco’s stats to help make my decision, and it seems that pretty much every year his ERA has been a much different story compared to his FIP. In the sabermetric community, ERA does not offer much validation anymore and FIP is the go to stat with pitchers. It can help project what a pitcher is capable and whether or not a pitcher projects to regress or improve when comparing FIP to ERA. Well with Nolasco, the ERA has looked bad year after year despite a much better FIP. Here is a look at Nolasco’s ERA vs FIP over the last 3 years:

Farm Futures: Youngsters Through the PECOTA Lens - RotoWire.com

The much anticipated release of the PECOTA rankings have arrived!!! Below is a breakdown of how the projections are made...

This week also marks another happy annual event as Baseball Prospectus releases its PECOTA projections for the coming season. As someone who also writes there, I am required to say it is the best projection system out there but I will also tell you that it is still best practice to review multiple projection systems (RotoWire, Marcel, Bill James, ZiPS) to help guide your opinion on a player. No projection system is perfect and the projections are not projecting 100 percent performance, rather, more of what should happen. It could be better, it could be worse, but if a projection system is in the ballpark on 70 percent of the players it projects, that is a damn good year. Anyhow, go check out Colin Wyers' explanation of how PECOTA is optimized and maintained.

Prospects 101 - RotoWire.com

Great read below on how to analyze prospects for fantasy purposes.

Matt Wieters. Brian Matusz. Not every prospect who's going to be this, or going to be that, turns out. (And the busts aren't all Orioles, but hey, they're down, so let's kick ‘em.) Prospects are exciting and, more than that, can hit you with some serious production, like Mike Stanton, Buster Posey and Eric Hosmer have of recent vintage. And then there's the .136 spot Chris Carter hung on owners last year. When it comes time to take that flier on the next big lottery ticket, it helps to know how to slice through the hype and pick the right prospects. Top 100 lists are a great first stop, but they aren't the whole show. The writers may judge the risk of a bust differently than you and could very easily be ranking prospects with a different sort of league in mind than yours. You want to make your own judgments, but the essential data you need starts with the best top 100 lists, and more importantly, the scouting reports that accompany them.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings: Catcher

2012-02-13T15:00:44Z

Pitchers and catchers report for most teams starting this Saturday, and we at Fake Teams have been hard at work reformulating our positional rankings so that you'll be ready on draft day. Ray, Jason, and I will reveal our latest rankings position by position over the next several days, and Marc will be chiming in with his own tiered ranks as well. You can keep up with all of Fake Teams' ranks via our Google Docs spreadsheet:

Fake Teams 2012 Fantasy Baseball Ranks

These catcher ranks are for a standard 5x5 mixed league. I've included 30 players, followed by a few brief explanations, especially where there are deviations from previously published ranks, which can be found here (mixed league) and here (league-specific). Kevin has also published catcher ranks for head-to-head points leagues, which may be found here.

2012 Mixed League 5x5 Catcher Rankings

1. Carlos Santana, CLE

2. Brian McCann, ATL

3. Matt Wieters, BAL

4. Mike Napoli, TEX

5. Buster Posey, SF

6. Miguel Montero, ARI

7. Joe Mauer, MIN

8. Alex Avila, DET

9. Yadier Molina, STL

10. Jesus Montero*, SEA

11. Wilson Ramos, WAS

12. J.P. Arencibia, TOR

13. Geovany Soto, CHC

14. Russell Martin, NYY

15. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

16. Ryan Doumit, MIN

17. Nick Hundley, SD

18. Salvador Perez, KC

19. Kurt Suzuki, OAK

20. Devin Mesoraco, CIN

21. John Buck, MIA

22. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS

23. Rod Barajas, PIT

24. Carlos Ruiz, PHI

25. Ramon Hernandez, COL

26. Chris Iannetta, LAA

27. Ryan Hanigan, CIN

28. Wilin Rosario, COL

29. Miguel Olivo, SEA

30. Ryan Lavarnway, BOS

*Jesus Montero is not currently listed as a catcher at Yahoo! or ESPN, but he is expected to catch some games for the Mariners this season.

I made a couple of minor adjustments at the top, including nudging Mike Napoli and Joe Mauer up a spot or two. Mauer is being drafted high enough in mocks that he'll never fall to a spot where I feel okay taking the risk.
I've knocked Nick Hundley down a peg or two - the secret about his second half is out and people are overpaying as a result.
It appears that I'm higher on Jonathan Lucroy than most. To be more accurate, I'm just not impressed with anybody else listed behind him here. I like Lucroy to repeat double-digit home runs with a modest improvement in batting average.
I've said it before, but I think the ability to DH has potential to do wonders for Ryan Doumit.
I'm not a Salty fan at all. I might not have him on this list at all if it weren't for the talent hitting in front of him.
Iannetta's home/road splits (Career OPS: .869 at Coors, .707 away) really scare me.

I'm happy to talk about any player, discuss any ranking, or defend any snub, so comment away.