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Fantasy Baseball: Baseball HQ's Rebound Candidates For 2010

2010-02-09T17:00:21Z

4 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Jay Bruce hits a pinch hit single off Houston Astros pitcher Wesley Wright to drive in two runs in the seventh inning of a baseball game, Monday, Sept. 14, 2009, in Cincinnati. Cincinnati won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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As I have stated previously, Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster is full of interesting articles, lists and of course, projections for almost every major leaguer. One of the lists he provides is his Rebound candidates for 2010.

He creates his list based on the player's Random Variance which is "a guage that measures the probability that a player's performance in the subsequent year will exceed or fall short of the immediate past year's numbers. Expressed on a scale of -5 to +5, this only measure variables for which outliers tend to refress. Positive scores indicate rebounds, negative scores indicate corrections. The variables tracked for Hitters are: outlying levels for H%, HR/FB and xBA."

Here are some of the hitters he expects to rebound in 2010:

Poll

Who is more likely to bounce back in 2010?

Down On The Farm: Project Prospect's Top 50 Prospects For 2010

2010-02-09T14:00:22Z

Jeff Chiu - AP

5 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Madison Bumgarner pitches against the San Diego Padres in the third inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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Adam Foster over at Project Prospect posted his Top 50 prospects yesterday. I previously posted his Top 10 prospects here. Let's take a look at his top 50 prospects:

Player

Pos

Comments

Age

Org

Lvl

Jason Heyward

Has the skills to turn into one of baseball's best hitters; back injury is a concern

20.7

ATL

AAA

Desmond Jennings

Solid bet to surface as an above-average big leaguer, with his D and contact bat

23.4

AAA

Jesus Montero

C/DH

Sick power bat and an elite contact hitter, though he's probably not a catcher

20.4

NYY

Stephen Strasburg

RHP

May emerge as No. 1 as soon as '10; painful mechanics will likely lead to injury

21.7

WAS

NCAA

Carlos Santana

Power-hitting catcher with outstanding patience; could become a plus defender

24.0

CLE

Dustin Ackley

CF/LF

In convo for decade's best college hitter; patient LD bat and good defensive OF

22.1

SEA

NCAA

Brian Matusz

LHP

Command pitcher with a power arsenal and MLB track record; potential No. 1-2

23.2

BAL

MLB

Buster Posey

Polished all-around hitter and a solid defender; very high floor as well as ceiling

23.0

MLB

Justin Smoak

Elite patience and power to go along with good contact skills; limited to 1B on D

23.3

TEX

AAA

Fernando Martinez

LF/RF

Plus power/good contact skills may allow him to ascend to stardom some day

21.5

NYM

MLB

Alcides Escobar

One of baseball's best defensive SS; elite contact bat but not much power or BB

23.3

MIL

MLB

Pedro Alvarez

Awesome power hitter; probably doesn't have the agility for 3B; will K often

23.2

PIT

Michael Taylor

LF/RF

Making unbelievable strides as a pro; scary part is he could continue to improve

24.3

OAK

AAA

Neftali Feliz

RHP

Stuff is filthy (FB sat 93-96 in MLB);will he be able to jump up to SP innings?

21.9

TEX

MLB

Michael Stanton

No one doubts 80 power -- also patient; contact struggles do give him a low floor

20.4

FLA

Josh Bell

Should be solid defender; patient, powerful & works the count well; could K a lot

23.4

BAL

Yonder Alonso

Very polished LD hitter; patient + makes lots of contact; how much power is here?

23.0

CIN

Jaff Decker

Above-average power hitter and extremely patient; better athlete than most think

20.1

Logan Morrison

Safe bet for a lengthy career; swing + approach may not lead to very much power

22.6

FLA

Mike Leake

RHP

Combines plus plus command and outstanding movement; likely No. 3 - maybe 2

22.4

CIN

NCAA

Jhoulys Chacin

RHP

Great sinking FB & plus changeup; curve flashes plus break; chance to be a No. 2

22.2

COL

MLB

James Darnell

Good bet to be solid MLBer; swing resembles J. Upton's - not as explosive, though

23.2

A+

Madison Bumgarner

LHP

No. 1-2 upside; great command of deceptive FB; SL is erratic; change lacks polish

20.7

MLB

Domonic Brown

Quick-twitch athlete has great bat speed; awkward swing mechanics limit ceiling

22.6

PHI

Chris Carter

Monster power will come w/ perhaps 200 Ks a year -- patient too; no value on D

23.3

OAK

AAA

Head on over to Project Prospect to check out prospects 26-50.

Check out what he said about a few of his top 50 in his Top 50 chat after the jump:

[Comment From Jeff: ]

My fantasy team hopes Todd Frazier can stick at 2B but do you see it happening?

I like Frazier's odds of sticking at second more than Ackley's. I've heard some good reports on Frazier being good enough on D to stick at second. I'll give him a 50% chance of staying there right now -- 10% for Ackley.

Adam Foster:

Frazier certainly would have alot of value if he can stick at 2B.

Comment from Luke:

Chris Heisey's production is hard to argue with, but what do you think of his swing? How soon will he be ready for the majors?

Adam Foster: Steve Carter loves Heisey's swing. He describes it as "one that cannot be taught" in the Digital Prospect Guide. Heisey could win a job out of camp with the Reds. He has the bat speed, plate approach and defensive ability to turn into an average or better regular. We loved what we saw out of him at the AFL -- and I went in as a bit of a skeptic.

Heisey does not flash high ceiling but he did go 20-20 in 2009.

Comment from Willy:

What kind of progress does Aaron Hicks need to make within the next year or two? Is he a breakout season away from the top 15?
Adam Foster:

I still haven't seen Hicks in person -- hoping to in ST in Florida -- but Lincoln reports in the DPG that Hicks could stand to improve his balance at the plate and take better routes on D. If he carries his Low-A success over to High-A and produces over a full season, he could enter 2011 as a top 15 prospect on most lists.

Foster has Hicks ranked as his # 50 prospect on his Top 50 list.

Comment From Andy:
Love the list! Couple of cincy reds questions: What do you project from Alonso and Heisey this year? What would you do with the Votto- Alonso situation (1b, LF, trade)?

Steve Carter:

Heisey is a guy who has really impressed me. He changed his load a little bit, and the quickness in his change of direction is outstanding. He's got really pure hitters actions that you can't teach, and guys with those type actions usually just go up and rake. Like Adam said, he's a bit older, but he could be average this year and get better with more experience.

Alonso won't ever hit 35, but he's solid bet to get to 25 or a little more in his prime. His approach plays well in that ballpark, and he's a very solid floor guy. If I were the Reds I'd do what Adam said, put Votto in LF and Alonso at 1B. With those 2 and Bruce, that's 3 pretty legit young left handed options in the same lineup.

Wow. For a guy who hasn't hit for much power in the minors, 25 HRs is a little surprising for this Yonder Alonso owner. Votto in LF? They would have to have a center-fielder who can cover alot of ground for sure.

Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Chicago White Sox for 2010.

2010-02-09T05:24:44Z

More photos » Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

8 months ago: Chicago White Sox;s Gordon Beckham checks his bat as he approaches the plate during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics Thursday, June 4, 2009 in Chicago. One day short of a year since he was drafted in the first round, Beckham arrived in the major leagues Thursday with the White Sox. After a sleepless night and an early flight, the former Georgia star was in the lineup at third base. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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1. Gordon Beckham- This is me going out on a limb. Gordon Beckham will have eligibility at a thin 3B and eventually a thin 2B as he should be the starting second baseman. Bill James loves Beckham this year and has his at 21 HR with over 90 RBI and runs, double digit stolen bases and .288 average. I think he's shooting for the moon, but still think Beckham has the upside to top this list (as a second baseman.)

2. Jake Peavy- I have one reason for not putting Peavy at the top. He hasn't proven to be healthy in the past few years, missing time with injuries in both seasons. Many people believe Peavy will regress in the American League. With Peavy's K numbers and upside, I think he'll be a viable option in the mid-later rounds of drafts.

3. Carlos Quentin- Was 2008 a fluke? Or was 2009 just riddled with too many injuries? How many at bats will we see from Quentin in 2010? If we are going to see near 500, I think he could return to close to his 2008 form and end with similar numbers. I can see Quentin hitting 25 home runs and .270. Kind of underwhelming for an outfielder.

4. John Danks- After an excellent 2008 season, Danks took a step back in 2009, seeing his K/9 drop and BB/9 rise. If Danks can bring his K numbers up, I could see a sub 4 ERA season with over 150 strikeouts. Not a whole lot else, however.

5. Bobby Jenks- I've made it pretty clear that I'm not a fan of Jenks, but people love saves. Sure, he probably won't give you an ERA under 3.00 and will never see his K/9 numbers as high as he used to, but he will probably get you 30+ saves and extra late, you take what you can get.

Sleeper alert. Tyler Flowers- When you think of a catcher, what comes to mind? 5'9, 200? Or 6'4, 245? Tyler Flowers has the build and tools to be a legitimate power threat from one of the thinnest positions in the game. On Thebaseballcube.com's 1-100 scale, Flowers rates a 90 for power, 42 for contact and am 86 for patience. So basically, a power hitting catcher. Flowers very well could see time this year in Chicago.

Poll

Will Jake Peavy return to Cy Young caliber?

Fantasy Sleeper: Arizona Diamondbacks OF Chris Young

2010-02-08T17:30:27Z

More photos » Denis Poroy - AP

4 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Chris Young breaks his bat as he connects for a single off San Diego Padres pitcher Kevin Correia during the fifth inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 14, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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This article was originally published over at SB Nation's fantasy baseball site.

Back in 2007, in his rookie season, Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young surprised the fantasy community by hitting 32 HRs and stealing 27 bases. He did all this with a slash line of .237-.295-.467. Young was in demand in fantasy drafts in 2008 with the thoughts of a 30-30 season from him. But he disappointed fantasy owners by going 22-85-85-14-.248-.315-.443 while striking out in 26% of his at bats.

Fantasy owners figured his 2008 season was just a bad year for him and that Young would be a bounce back candidate in 2009. Not a chance. Young regressed even more to the point that he was optioned to AAA to figure things out without the pressure of facing major league pitching.

Young's 2009 stats were abysmal. He hit 15 HRs, drove in 42 runs while stealing 11 bases in 15 attempts. But he was a BA killer, hitting .212 for the season with an OBP of .311 and a SLG of .400. He increased his K% to 30.7% of his at bats, but also increased his BB% to almost 12%.

Ron Shandler projects Young to go 20-59-14-.237-.316-.445 in 2010. Young hit .278 with 8 HRs and 14 RBI in September 2009, so I am curious if his demotion to AAA in August was a turning point in his career. Fantasy owners should pay attention to how he performs in spring training before drafting him in mixed leagues, But should he bust out of the gate with a solid few weeks in spring training, he could be a late round sleeper.

In auction leagues, I can see Young going for less than $10 in 2010. That might prove to be a real bargain if he has turned the corner. If not, he could end up being platooned more and more in 2010.

Poll

Is Diamondback's outfielder draftable in mixed leagues in 2010?

Fantasy Bust: Florida Marlins Outfielder Chris Coghlan

2010-02-07T17:00:24Z

More photos » Al Behrman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

2 months ago: Florida Marlins' Chris Coghlan hits a single off Cincinnati Reds pitcher Arthur Rhodes in the seventh inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009, in Cincinnati. Coghlan had four hits in the game won by the Reds 3-2. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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After shoveling some snow and downing a few beers with the neighbors yesterday, I sat down to read Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. I recommend this book as it really is the bible for fantasy owners. So, I am reading through the comments for each player in alphabetical order, and I come to Chris Coghlan, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009.

A friend and I have argued about how the prospect experts at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, among others, rank their prospects. He thinks that it is their job to find guys like Coghlan and rank him accordingly. I disagree. My argument is that ranking prospects is like picking stocks.....it ain't easy. He feels that the experts should have had Coghlan ranked higher in 2009 before he won the rookie of the year. I asked him what Todd Hollandsworth has been up to since he won the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers back in 1996. I argue that the experts rank the prospects based on their ceiling, and not all prospects reach their ceiling.

We agree to disagree.

Anyway, Chris Coghlan did win the NL ROY in 2009, but after looking at his stats and reading Shandler's comments in his book, I am not sure if Coghlan can repeat his 2009 season. For the season Coghlan hit 9-47-8-.321-.390-.460 in 504 at bats with a 77/53 K/BB ratio.

Shandler doesn't think he can repeat his 2009 season. Here are his comments:

9-47-.321 in 504 AB at FLA. Unreal 2H fueled H% unlike any in his past screams regression. Solid-not-special skill set , would play better as a 2B or even 3B-his college and minor league positions.

In the second half of 2009, Coghlan hit .359-.405-.520-.925 with an 87% contact rate and a 40% Hit rate. His xBA was .296 for the second half, which is more representative of the kind of hitter Coghlan is. With all that said, Shandler predicts him to hit 13-64-10-.292-.362-.450 in 2010. Those are solid numbers for a second baseman, but not for a third baseman or outfielder.

Fantasy owners should expect some regression in Coghlan's numbers in 2010, and draft him accordingly. If the Marlins should trade second baseman Dan Uggla, and move Coghlan to second, his value will increase for sure.

Poll

Will Chris Coghlan be over-valued in 2010 fantasy drafts?

Who Would You Rather Have: Nelson Cruz Or Jayson Werth?

2010-02-07T14:00:21Z

More photos » Winslow Townson - AP

8 months ago: Texas Rangers' Nelson Cruz tosses his bat as he watches his home run during the seventh inning of their 6-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston Sunday, June 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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I was flipping through the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster yesterday and stopped to see what Shandler had to say about Nelson Cruz. Let's just say he likes him....alot.

Cruz had a very solid 2009 season hitting 33-76-20-.260-.331-.524, a Shandler PX (power) 160, and a SX (speed) 99. He increased his FB% from 37.9% in 2008 to 45.6% in 2009 and maintained his HR/FB% at 21.2% for oth 2008 and 2009. His BABIP was a little low at .280, so we could see an increase in his BA in 2010. He does strike out alot (K% of 25%) but walks a decent amount as well (BB% of 10%).

This is what Shandler had to say about Cruz:

Battled through nagging injuries and proved his '08 breakout was no fluke. Elite power and speed combo, and after another PX 160, power is legit, especially with added FB. Faded in Sept, but this was his first full season. UP-40 HR

Shandler projects him to go 36-103-18-.274-.341-.540 in 2010. Bill James has him projected for very similar numbers-36-98-21-.284-.354-.541.

Jayson Werth had a breakout season in 2009 hitting 36-99-.20-.268-.373-.506. Werth strikes out alot-K% of 27% but also walks alot-BB% of 13%. Like Cruz, Werth increased his FB% from 38% in 2008 to 44.4% in 2009, while his HR/FB% dropped slightly from 21.2% in 2008 to 19.3% in 2009. With that said Shandler sees a repeat in 2010.

Here are his comments:

FB% spike, patience says he looked for balls to drive. HR spike and elite PX (power) says he was successful. 87% SBO says SB should keep coming. H% says he wasn't particularly lucky. We say pay it again.

Shandler projects Werth to hit 35-98-20-.262-.361-.492, while Bill James see a slight regression to 28-88-17-.269-.369-.490 in 2010.

Poll

Who would you rather have in 2010: Nelson Cruz or Jayson Werth

Fantasy Sleeper: Colorado Rockies Third Baseman Ian Stewart

2010-02-06T20:00:19Z

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Ian Stewart follows the flight of his solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds to lead off the eighth inning of the Rockies' 4-3 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Monday, Sept. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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For those of you who like to dig up the sleepers, Steve Gardner from the USA Today posted an article on Ian Stewart in his Fantasy Windup blog. In the article, he compares Stewart's 2009 season to Mark Reynolds 2008 season with the thought that Stewart could be the 2010 version of Mark Reynolds.

Head on over to Fantasy Windup and check out his article. Ron Shandler projects Stewart to go 27-86-6-.246 in 2010. I think he could out-perform that projection.

Poll

Can Ian Stewart go 30-90 in 2010?

Down On The Farm: Buster Posey To Play Some Infield This Spring??

2010-02-06T17:00:24Z

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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A few months ago, we heard that the Giants were going to start catching prospect in AAA to start the 2010 season because he had issues catching fastballs. Now we hear this from Henry Schulman at the San Francisco Chronicle:

Manager Bruce Bochy insisted Friday that catching remains Posey's long-term position but said he and general manager Brian Sabean have talked about Posey playing some infield this spring to boost his chances of making the team.

"We're going to give him a lot of playing time this spring," Bochy said. "Everybody looks at the situation with Bengie (Molina) and Eli (Whiteside) and think that Buster has to go to Fresno. But that's not etched in stone."

Will we hear by mid-season that Posey will start playing 3B in the minors?

Poll

Will Buster Posey be playing 3B in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball: Is Position Scarcity Over-Emphasized By Fantasy Owners?

2010-02-06T14:00:22Z

More photos » Tom Mihalek - AP

6 months ago: Florida Marlins' Hanley Ramirez swings into a pitch hitting a double to center that scored Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio in the seventh inning of a baseball game with the Philadelphia Phillies, Sunday, Aug. 9, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Marlins won 12-3. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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I was checking out Marc Normandin's fantasy baseball chat over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday afternoon, and posted a few Q & A's from the chat. Both fanposts were instances where I disagreed with Marc, but here is one where I tend to agree with Marc. Here is the Q & A:

nschaef (Connecticut): Do you think it's possible that position scarcity has become so emphasized that picking the best available player is a way to exploit a market ineffciency?
Marc Normandin: Yes. A friend and I have had discussions about this in the past. People are so desperate to pick up players at positions with scarcity that they miss out elsewhere. Sure, there's a lot to choose from at certain positions, but what happens when you base your team off of Jose Reyes because shorstop sucks and then he misses the year? You're not going to get anyone nearly as good without extreme luck or dealing from a strength, weakening yourself again.

I agree that fantasy owner's do over-emphasize position scarcity in fantasy drafts.Here is an example I used in the past, and it involves Matt Kemp. I have discussed Kemp in several "Who Would You Rather Have" posts, with one here, and an NL Top 10 post here.

When drafting, many fantasy owners look to draft players at positions with scarcity, like catcher, shortstop and second base, and often overlook better players. One can say I am biased ranking Matt Kemp so high, but I would draft him ahead of a Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley, as Kemp, in my opinion, will outperform these two players in 2010.

And Baseball HQ agrees with me. Here is their projections for 2010:

Name HR RBI RS SB BA

Matt Kemp 29 107 98 32 .299

Hanley Ramirez 26 88 111 24 .314

Chase Utley 30 100 111 19 .280

I think Kemp can outperform Shandler's projection, and I am sure there are people who think Hanley can outperform his projection, but as I wrote here, Hanley's power/speed stats have dropped in each of the last 2 years.

I would prefer to draft a hitter who has a very good chance to go 30-30 in 2010, over a hitter at a position of scarcity. If drafting a hitter who plays a positon of scarcity was so valuable, why not draft Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley at number 1? Why pick Albert Pujols #1 when first base might be the deepest position in fantasy drafts in 2010.

Here is a list of first baseman available in 2010 drafts: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Lance Berkman. That is quite a list of available first baseman, but yet Albert Pujols will be the #1 pick in plenty of league drafts this year.

Back when Mike Piazza was going 30-100 playing catcher for the Dodgers and Mets, there weren't many catchers performing like him. Was he ever a number 1 pick in fantasy drafts? I am sure he was (I think I may have picked him #1 in a NL-only league once, and my team didn't fare too well), but was he the best player available? I would say no.

In mixed leagues, position scarcity exists, but not to the extent it does in NL-only or AL-only leagues. But for me, that is no reason to overlook a better player.

Poll

Is position scarcity over-emphasized by fantasy owners?

BP Chat with Marc Normandin David (NJ): Do you see David Wright bouncing back this year? Is he a...

2010-02-05T20:27:11Z

BP Chat with Marc Normandin

David (NJ): Do you see David Wright bouncing back this year? Is he a first round pick?

Marc Normandin: Yes and yes. The Mets seem to think they know what he was doing wrong, and he's shown himself to be quick at adjusting before once the problem is known.

Who in the Mets organization has any clue what is going on with that team? The GM doesn't.

www.baseballprospectus.com

BP Chat with Marc Normandin Ron (Vancouver): Roy Halladay 22.5 wins: Over or under? Marc...

2010-02-05T20:24:15Z

BP Chat with Marc Normandin

Ron (Vancouver): Roy Halladay 22.5 wins: Over or under?

Marc Normandin: Under. Again not by much though

aye aye aye.....the hype machine is running hard now.

Fantasy Sleeper: Chicago Cubs Outfielder Xavier Nady

2010-02-05T14:00:28Z

The Cubs recently signed outfielder Xavier Nady to serve as their 4th outfielder behind Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome. Soriano always seems to be injured and Byrd is coming off a career year which I don't think he can repeat, and Fukudome goes through horrible slumps. With that said, I think Nady can get 400+ at bats in 2010, with a chance at starting should manager Lou Piniella sour on either Byrd or Fukudome.

Nady missed all of 2009, well, except for 28 at bats, due to his second Tommy John surgery. Lucky for him, he is not a pitcher. But back in 2008, Nady had his best year going 25-97-76-.305-.357-.510 with the Pirates and Yankees. I am not saying Nady can duplicate that in 2010, but I could see him approaching 20 HRs and driving in 80 runs for the Cubs, as long as he stays healthy.

Bill James projects him to go 17-65-.285-.337-.469 in 2010, but he could exceed that projection should he stay healthy.

Poll

Is Xavier Nady draftable in mixed leagues in 2010?

ESPN Chat with Keith Law Alan (St. Pete) Name a couple of breakout candidates for 2010. I'm...

2010-02-04T19:24:53Z

ESPN Chat with Keith Law

Alan (St. Pete)
Name a couple of breakout candidates for 2010. I'm personally investing a lot in Jay Bruce.

Klaw (2:00 PM)
I'll do another breakouts article this spring. Bruce would be a candidate. Rasmus will be on it, that I promise.

He likes Rasmus in a big way.

www.espn.com

Fantasy Baseball: Rickie Weeks = 2010 Sleeper

2010-02-04T14:00:27Z

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

8 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Rickie Weeks hits during the fourth inning of a baseball game Thursday, May 14, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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I was reading Eric Karabell's fantasy chat this evening, and stumbled upon this question from a chatter:

Michael (Milwaukee)

are you betting on Ricky Weeks this year?

Eric Karabell
(3:50 PM)

For a DL stint or two? Yes. More than 400 at-bats, no.

It's true, Weeks has had only two seasons with over 400 at bats, in 2007 and 2008. Should Weeks have an injury free season and get over 500 at bats as the Brewers second baseman, I think he could put up some fairly good stats for fantasy owners.

His best season was in 2007, where he hit 16 HRs, drove in 36, scored 87 runs, and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts. But, he had a slash line of .235-.374-.433. The BA is poor, but the OBP was solid. Weeks sports a career K% of 26.3% and a BB% OF 11.0%.

Ron Shandler projects Weeks to go 15-56-93-19-.264-.344-.426 with the following comments:

Enjoyed career best start until wrist injury ended season in May. PX (power) and SX (speed) history still project near elite HR-SB upside, but health hasn't cooperated and wrist issues can sap power. If 2009 was real.....UP 25/25

So Shandler think Weeks upside is 25 HRs and 25 SBs in 2010. That would be second round stats for a guy that will get drafted after the 15th round in most fantasy drafts in 2010.

Keep Weeks on your radar as many will write him off as an injury risk, which he is. But, should he stay healthy in 2010, he can help in the power and speed categories.

Poll

Would you draft Weeks before or after the 15th round in your 2010 fantasy draft?

Who Would You Rather Have: Mark Reynolds Or Kevin Youkilis??

2010-02-03T17:00:28Z

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis tosses away his bat after hitting a weak fly ball out during the second inning in Game 2 of the American League division baseball series against the Anaheim Angels Friday, Oct. 9, 2009 in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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In his annual Baseball Forecaster, Ron Shandler provides fantasy owners with a projected snake draft for a 15 team, mixed league. The draft is a 30 round draft, and in the 3rd round, he projects Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis to be drafted before the Diamondbacks third sacker Mark Reynolds.

I don't agree with that and here are their stats for 2009:

Name	AB	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Mark Reynolds	578	30	44	98	102	76	223	24	0.260	0.349	0.553
Kevin Youkilis	491	36	27	99	94	77	125	7	0.305	0.413	0.548

Reynolds combination of power and speed is more valuable to fantasy owners than Youkilis ability to hit for average to go along with his solid power. Now I am not sure we see a 44-24 season out of Reynolds in 2010, but I think he can still go 35-17. Drafting a guy with 20-20, or even 30-20, possibilities is a smarter move than a 25-10 hitter.

Bill James projects Youkilis to go 23-95-98-6-.289-.394-.492 in 2010, while he has Reynolds going 40-107-103-18-.268-.356-.551. I think Reynolds has a real shot at stealing 20 bases again, as AJ Finch lets his hitters run last year, and I think it continues.

Poll

Who would you rather draft in 2010-Kevin Youkilis or Mark Reynolds?

Fantasy Baseball: BaseballHQ's Breakout Candidates For 2010

2010-02-03T14:00:27Z

More photos » Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Cleveland Indians' Matt LaPorta swings on a home run against Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Joe Nathan during the ninth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 5-4. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Every year Santa brings me Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster book which is chock full of insightful fantasy articles and projections. Last year Brandon Kruse wrote an article called "Speculating on Breakouts". His definition of a breakout player is one who earns a Rotisserie value of $20 or more after previously never posting a value over $10 at the major league level.
The criteria used included the following:

-age 27 or younger

-an increase in at least two of the following categories-PX, SX or H%

-Minimum league average PX or SX (100)

-Minimum contact rate-75%

-minimum xBA-.270

Last year, his speculation predicted two solid breakout players-Ben Zobrist and Erick Aybar, along with Martin Prado and Seth Smith, both of whom performed very well in 2009.

His choices for 2010:

Michael Aubrey (1B, BAL)

Ronald Belisario (RP, LAD)

Neftali Feliz (SP, TEX)

Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)

Matt Laporta (OF, CLE)

Joe Smith (RP, CLE)

Luis Valbuena (2B, CLE)

I wonder if Kruse is an Indians fan? He selected three of their players to breakout in 2010?

Poll

Who will have the best breakout year in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Detroit Tigers for 2010.

2010-02-03T04:44:32Z

More photos » Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

8 months ago: Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera watches his home run off Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Scott Linebrink during the 10th inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 9, 2009 in Chicago. Detroit won 7-6 in 10 innings. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Now, I move on to the losers of one of the best games I've seen in my lifetime. 2009 game 163, the Detroit Tigers.

1. Miguel Cabrera- Miggy's recent stay in alcohol rehabilitation has really got me concerned about taking him in the first round. You'll likely have to draft Cabrera with a top ten pick. Chances are pretty decent that Teixeira and Ryan Howard will both be available after that and if you're drafting Cabrera, you're hoping for a bounce back year from 2009 where he drove in quite a bit fewer runs.

2. Justin Verlander- The 26-year old Verlander had easily his best season in 2009 and I wouldn't be shocked to see him put up equal numbers for 2010. He had a fairly unexplainable dip in performance in 2008 and early 2009, but I don't think that will be a huge factor again this year. Verlander posted career highs in K/9 and a career low in BB.9 while keeping his whip at 1.18. I wouldn't expect a season from Verlander where he posts a K/9 over 10 again and I wouldn't expect an ERA below 3.00, but I do think Verlander can be an excellent choice.

3. Jose Valverde- While I'm personally not a fan of the signing for Detroit, I do think Valverde can be a successful fantasy closer. He'll likely be drafted in a the late rounds and has the ability to post 40+ saves in one season with a low 3.00 ERA and at least a K per inning. While he could be a front line closer, he could also get hurt pretty easily as he is turning 32 in March and struggled to stay healthy in 2009.

4. Max Scherzer- One of my favorite young pitchers in the game right now is Max Scherzer. Scherzer endured his first full season as a starter in 2009 and posted a respectable 4.12 ERA and a 9.19 K/9. While he is still an injury concern and may be throughout his career, Scherzer has the tools to be a great sleeper pick this year.

5. Rick Porcello- Ranking number 6 in the league in GB%, Porcello has the ability and makeup to be a Roy Halladay type of pitcher and he's only 20-years old. I don't think Porcello will bring much to the table regarding Ks, but he could be able to keep his ERA at a manageable level and not kill you in the process.

Sleeper Alert. Austin Jackson- I was trying to avoid using Jackson as my sleeper due to him being overrated by New York media as is, but the Tigers don't have much in the way of talent worthy gracing this list. There's a very good chance Jackson will start in center field for the Tigers at some point this season and could put up a .280 season with 15-20 stolen bases.

Fantasy Baseball: Keith Law's Top Rookie Prospects for 2010

2010-02-02T17:57:07Z

Keith Law just posted his list of 10 prospects, not including in his Top 100 prospects who could have an impact in 2010. Before listing the 10 prospects, he gave this piece of information:

This excludes top 100 prospects who are currently projected to hold regular jobs in the majors this year, like Jason Heyward (No. 1), Brian Matusz (No. 11), Neftali Feliz (No. 13), or Alcides Escobar (No. 54), or players like Chris Carter or Drew Storen, who could see significant playing time in 2010 but might not get it till midyear.

Who will be more valuable in 2010: Matusz or Feliz?

Poll

Who has a bigger impact: Brian Matusz or Neftali Feliz?

Fantasy Baseball: Reds Deal Willy Taveras, Drew Stubb's Stock Skyrockets

2010-02-02T14:00:26Z

More photos » David Kohl - AP

5 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Drew Stubbs (6) is congratulated by Joey Votto (19) after Stubbs scored on a Paul Janish double in the first inning during Game 2 of a baseball doubleheader, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit is at far right. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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This afternoon, I saw the news that the Reds had traded centerfielder Willy Taveras, along with third baseman Adam Rosales, for Aaron Miles. I didn't realize until a fellow owner in one of my NL-only keeper leagues mentioned that Reds may have handed the centerfield job to Drew Stubbs by dealing Taveras.

The fact that a Dusty Baker managed team is going with youth over experience is a sign of the changes in player evaluation that has taken place since we saw the Colorado Rockies and the Tampa Bay Rays make the World Series in two of the last three years. More and more teams are allowing young pitching and hitting prospects to pitch/play in place of older, more experienced players.

This trade benefits Drew Stubbs value in fantasy leagues immensely. Stubbs was called up in mid-August of 2009, after yet another injury to Willy Taveras. Stubbs responded by hitting 8 HRs, driving in 17 runs, scoring 27 runs and stealing 10 bases in 180 at bats. He hit .267-.323-.439 with the Reds, and Bill James' projections for him may not be so outlandish after all. James projects Stubbs to go 11-51-76-51-.267-.336-.390. I have a feeling the 51 SBs may be a bit high, but Stubbs did steal 46 bases in AAA before getting called up.

Stubbs should find himself batting leadoff in 2010 as he batted leadoff in every game but two after getting the call to the big leagues last year. Stubbs will have to improve his K% and BB% if he wants to keep his job, as he struck out in 27% of his at bats with the Reds, with a BB% of only 7.7%.

Stubbs has a career OBP of .364 in the minors, but he struck out over 100 times in each of the last three years in the minors, with a high of 142 back in 2007. Should he be able to increase the BB% and reduce the K%, Stubbs could be a mixed league sleeper in 2010.

Poll

Over/Under on # of SBs for Drew Stubbs in 2010?

Putz: Mets were 'a mess', never administered physical by Bernie Augustine Former Mets reliever...

2010-02-02T01:50:23Z

Putz: Mets were 'a mess', never administered physical by Bernie Augustine

Former Mets reliever J.J. Putz, now with the White Sox, told a Chicago sports network that the Mets were "a mess" from the day they acquired him in December of 2008 and, throwing gas on the fire, claims that he "never really took a physical" and was told by team management to not disclose the details of his elbow injury to the media. All of this from Comcast SportsNet in the Windy City.

Isn't that grounds to fire Omar??