Fear The Fin

Sharks turnover a win, lose 4-3 to the Flames

2012-02-09T07:07:29Z

Contrary to your author's (former) beliefs, it seems as if the Flames can bring the offensive heat every once in awhile.

They picked a heckuva night to do it.

Miikka Kiprusoff earned his 300th career win in his former barn, Olli Jokinen scored three goals for a hatless HP Pavilion hat trick, and the Sharks struggled with turnovers and intensity throughout the night in their 4-3 loss.

Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, and Michal Handzus had the tallies for San Jose, with Jarome Iginla scoring the other marker for the Flames.

Losing Dan Boyle before the game to a bout with the flu didn't help San Jose's chances tonight of course, as the Sharks defensive pairings managed to put in a rather pedestrian affair without their primary puck mover.

As Todd McLellan put it after the game however, Boyle's absence, while making the heart grow even fonder for his skating and minutes eating ability, shouldn't have played as big a role as it did throughout the game.

"I thought it had a huge impact. Danny’s a tremendous player; he means a lot to our hockey club, but we should be able to work our way through it," McLellan said. "With him in the lineup, we still [would have] made line changes the way we did and stayed on the ice for as long as we did; it wouldn’t have mattered. He wouldn’t have been on the ice for all the turnovers that we made.

"It was a team loss. We missed him of course, but he’ll be back, and we’ll be better."

The Sharks came out of the gates lacking the necessary drive, giving up 15 shots in the opening frame to a Flames team that usually doesn't reach that total until about midway through the second period. They would escape with only one goal against however, as Antti Niemi managed to keep the score from getting out of hand in the early going as Calgary piled up the chances.

That really was the story of the night for Niemi-- despite giving up 4 goals throughout the course of the game, it's hard to fault the Finnish netminder for any of the goals against. I'm sure one could make a case for him getting over and tightening up the holes on the second goal against, but a botched clear behind the net that trickled out front to Jokinen is something that can be considered as big a fault as any. He was one of the better Sharks players against Calgary and did pretty much everything that can reasonably be expected of him during the night.

Speaking of meeting or exceeding expectations, the Sharks top line of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Joe Pavelski caused some absolute havoc for the Flames once they were reunited in the second period. With the team without the services of Martin Havlat for nearly two months now it has become rarer and rarer for McLellan to load up three of his most talented forwards on the same line.

It's hard to fault him for trying to balance out the scoring depth, and pairing either Benn Ferriero, Andrew Desjardins, or Tommy Wingels with Thornton makes as much sense as any, but the lack of top-line polish from those aforementioned three players has been readily apparent in their time spent on the top line.

After their performance tonight, with Pavelski getting a goal and Thornton and Marleau leading the team with six shots apiece, I think a case is to be made that you stick with that combination heading into Friday night's game against a severely struggling Chicago team. The Sharks love to go power versus power when they have the opportunity to do so, and with the Blackhawks struggling, that's going to be a matchup that the Sharks would be hard pressed to ignore as they try to get back into the win column.

All of these positive things considered however, tonight's loss does feel like one that got away. It's hard to pin so much of the result on that brutal first period, as San Jose escaped only down by one and managed to knot the game at two in rapid succession during the second period, but it did have an impact in that San Jose missed out on an opportunity to control the game from the outset and put Calgary in a position where they needed to play from behind.

As for the turnovers that plagued their game, I wouldn't state that they were systematic-- I thought San Jose actually did a fairly good job overall of keeping the giveaway count down and making sure they had quality gap control to push Calgary to the outside and make room for their backchecking forwards to clean up everything on the rush. What killed them tonight was the untimeliness of them-- whether that be a giveaway in the defensive zone which ends up in the back of the net on the game-winner, a failure to clear the zone multiple times on the Flames' first, or an indecisive read in the neutral zone that leads to the third goal, the breakdowns that sprung up at inopportune times for San Jose were what led to the loss.

Figuring out how to eliminate those mistakes in time for Friday's tilt against Chicago will be essential, as the Blackhawks are a team that thrives in transition against the Sharks.

Gameday Thread: Flames at Sharks

2012-02-09T02:04:23Z

Next Game

Calgary Flames
@ San Jose Sharks

Wednesday, Feb 8, 2012, 7:00 PM PST
HP Pavilion

Sharks Gameday: Oh How Formulaic These Games Against The Flames Can Be

posted by Mr. Plank about 15 hours ago

49 comments | 1 rec.

Complete Coverage >

Some news headed into tonight's tilt, which starts at 7:00:

> Pollak reporting from practice, and says that it's Benn Ferriero in the top six, Andrew Desjardins on the fourth line and Jim Vandermeer with his butt on the bench.

> Miikka Kiprusoff will go for win number 300 tonight, but let's hope he doesn't get there against the team who drafted him.

> Some forwards who were thought likely to be moved at the deadline are being resigned by their current teams. Yesterday it was Frans Nielsen (NOOOOOOOOO) and today it's Vinny Prospal. It's looking like a sellers market this year.

> Fear the Fin will have a big announcement tomorrow. Can you guess what it is?

Sharks Gameday: Oh How Formulaic These Games Against The Flames Can Be

2012-02-08T11:00:41Z

	@ 7:30 PST
24-22-7, 55 points		29-15-6, 64 points
12th in Western Conference		3rd in Western Conference

Television

CSN-CA

Radio

98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com

Antagonists

Matchsticks & Gasoline

Flames Nation

This is where the lede goes in a news story. It tells you the most important information from the story like who is involved and what they've done or are going to do. For example, the lede for today would center around the fact that San Jose Sharks will be playing a game of ice hockey against a mediocre Calgary Flames team tonight at 7:30 PM, and will be looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss to Phoenix on Saturday.

That's kind of a long lede, which isn't ideal. However, a short sentence here can ease the transition.

The second part of a news story is the nutgraf, although the nutgraf can also be the lede. I know, it can get a little confusing. This is the part of the story that tells you why this is important and expands upon what this story is about. The nutgraf for this story would be the fact that this game is important because it is one of only two home games remaining before the Sharks hit the road for a long nine game road trip west of the Mississippi. Earning points against a less than imposing opponent is a great thing to take advantage of before these long road trips, especially when your team has games in hand.

Now you have a couple of options. The first is to provide a quote from a source. This introduces an expert's opinion into your story and gives your readers a sense of learning about specific details they can't get anywhere else.

Since I consider myself an expert I will quote myself. Please note this will get you canned quicker than the last yield of tomatoes before winter if you're working anywhere else other than Fear The Fin.

"These next two weeks are going to tell us, and most importantly Doug Wilson, a lot about this team. It really sets the stage for what we can expect at the trade deadline," I said in a sit-down interview with myself. "Games against teams like the Flames are one of those matchups that you expect to win because it sets the tone for the upcoming road trip. A poor effort tonight is far from the end of the world, but with points at a premium, these are the kinds of games where your Coach and General Manager are expecting you to get into the win column."

The next part of the formula is to continue to structure your information in the pyramid style. This means the most important information comes at the beginning of the article (who is playing, why it is important) and each subsequent paragraph contains anecdotes and other bits of information that aren't essential but still provide value.

An example of this would be the fact that boy wonder Logan Couture is hotter than Hansel right now, with a six game point streak where he has amassed 4 goals and 5 assists. This would generally be tied in with the return of Ryane Clowe, who hasn't skipped a beat since returning from injury-- Clowe has posted three assists and one goal in two games since returning last Thursday against Dallas.

Another quote here is essential. Since getting multiple sources builds trust, let's head over to FTF Staff for a comment.

"San Jose looked phenomenal against the Blue Jackets and Stars, but left a little to be desired in the scoring chances category against the Coyotes," FTF Staff told a member of FTF Staff. "Having said that, I really like what the team has gotten out of the top six since the All-Star Break. They've managed to break out of the funk that permeated their game in mid-January and set the wheels in motion for an exciting stretch run."

The writer would then state how important it will be for them to continue to lead the charge for the Sharks. If they can keep it up, San Jose will be in good hands tonight as the Flames are one of the worst offensive teams in the entire NHL.

This pyramid style, coupled with a transition about the Flames offensive woes, would then lead us to the opposing team's players. Mentioning how Michael Cammalleri hasn't produced as much as the team would hope offensively since being acquired by the Flames on January 12th is essential, and listing off his stat line (2 G, 0 A, 8 GP) would help give the reader some context.

Jarome Iginla would also be mentioned here, and the writer would note how the Sharks have been able to do a very good job of containing him by matching up Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Dan Boyle against that line in both their games this season. A brief note about the last change at home is a requirement here as well.

The writer would then wrap up the story, build up the anticipation for the final line, and lead into it with a thought that isn't quite finished.

End it with some gusto.

This line is one you need to deliver with conviction.

Prediction: Sharks win 2-0. The Flames play a boring, formulaic game, with their lede composed of chipping the puck deep, nutgraf composed of getting in hard on the forecheck, and pyramid style information composed of puck battles all the way along the boards. Toss in some quotes about hard work and a physical game and you've got yourself the whole story.

Open Nolan Retirement Thread

2012-02-07T21:41:46Z

To watch the press conference, visit sjsharks.com

Today at 2:30 PM (PST), Owen Nolan will be given a one day contract by the San Jose Sharks so he can officially retire as a member of the team. Nolan, who has been out of the game for two years, played parts of eight seasons with San Jose, his most with any franchise.

In Nolan's tenure with San Jose, he scored 206 goals and 451 points, leaving him amongst the organization's higest scoring players of all time. Aside from his statistics, Nolan is remembered for a moments; his called shot in the All-Star Game, his goal from the center ice against Roman Turek, and his railroading of Ed Belfor, among other things, stand out as great moments in a great career.

As captain of the Sharks, Nolan came to embody the franchise and cement them in the hearts of the city. We welcome you to reflect on your memories of his time in San Jose throughout today.

Woo Rewind - Sharks brawl with IceCaps and Stalock wins again

2012-02-06T20:00:28Z

Last week, the Worcester Sharks traveled to the Mile One Centre in St. John’s, NL, to play the hosting St. John’s IceCaps in back-to-back games and skated away with a split. Overall, the Sharks are now 21-14-4-5 with 51 points, and are in third place of the Atlantic Division of the AHL Eastern Conference, 11 points behind the division leading IceCaps.

On Friday night {Feb. 3}, the Sharks were defeated 3-2, marking the first time in six games the home team won a game in the season series. Mike Connolly and Jack Combs scored for the Sharks while goalie Harri Sateri {10-7-0, 2.59 goals against average, .907 save percentage} stopped 28-of-31 shots in the loss.

IceCaps defenseman Arturs Kulda gave the IceCaps a 1-0 lead with his fourth goal of the season at 17:44 of the first period. With the puck inside the Sharks zone, IceCaps forward Riley Holzapfel sent a pass out to the top of the right point to Kulda, who fired a quick slap shot on net through traffic that beat Sateri over the shoulder for the goal.

Connolly tied the game at 3:50 of the second period with his ninth goal of the season after Sharks forward Tim Kennedy stole the puck behind the IceCaps net, and centered the puck in front for Connolly, who fired a quick snap shot on net from inside the right slot that beat IceCaps goalie Edward Pasquale on the blocker side for the goal.

IceCaps defenseman Paul Postma regained the IceCaps lead with a power play goal, his eighth goal of the season, at 5:25. With Sharks defenseman Nick Petrecki in the penalty box for delay of game, the Sharks won the ensuing face-off and cleared the puck. However, the IceCaps rushed right back into the Sharks zone and Postma fired a rocket of a slap shot on net from on top of the face-off circles that beat Sateri for the goal.

IceCaps forward Kevin Clark extended the lead to 3-1 with his eighth goal of the season at 15:35. Dumping the puck into the Sharks zone, Clark won a battle for the puck in the left corner against Sharks forward Marek Viedensky and skated towards the right corner. The puck was corralled by IceCaps forward Jason Gregoire, who fired a quick shot on net from on top of the right face-off circle that Sateri stopped. However, no Sharks player put a body on Clark, who was all alone on top of the goalie crease, and Clark corralled the rebound and stuffed the puck past Sateri for the goal.

Combs cut the IceCaps lead to 3-2 with his eighth goal of the season at 18:51. Entering the IceCaps zone on the left side, Combs fired a rocket of shot from on top of the left face-off circle that Pasquale stopped. The puck went to the right corner, where Sharks forward James Livingston leveled IceCaps forward John Albert with a solid check. Albert stayed down on the ice in an effort to draw a penalty on Livingston, and several other IceCaps players stopped playing while Livingston and Combs continued to battle for the puck. Combs won the battle for the puck, and centered the puck in front to linemate Chad Costello, who passed the puck back to Combs, who slammed the puck into an open net at the right side for the goal.

In the third period, the Sharks outshot the IceCaps 7-6 but couldn’t get the puck past Pasquale for the tying goal.

For the game, the Sharks were outshot 31-25, were 0-for-2 with the man advantage and 4-for-5 on the penalty kill... Cam MacIntyre {inj}, Ben Guite {inj}, Tony Lucia {inj}, Ryan Del Monte {scr} and Curt Gogol {scr} did not dress for the Sharks... Tyson Sexsmith was called up to San Jose on Feb. 2 while Antero Niittymaki was reassigned to Worcester... Combs extended his point streak to five games {2-5-7}.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Parsons of www.stjohnsicecaps.com

On Saturday night {Feb. 4}, the Sharks won the rematch, 4-2, in a rock ‘em, sock ‘em game that referee Marcus Vinnerborg lost control of early by swallowing his whistle. Both teams combined for 112 penalty minutes and an AHL season high six sets of fighting majors.

Livingston, Del Monte, Connolly and Brandon Mashinter scored for the Sharks while Sateri stopped 27-of-29 shots in the win. In addition, Kennedy {0-2-2}, Connolly {1-1-2} and Mashinter {1-1-2} all had multi-point games for the Sharks.

Fireworks erupted just three seconds into the game as Sharks defenseman Sena Acolatse dropped the gloves with IceCaps forward Garth Murray off the opening face-off. Acolatse won the 30 second battle with a nice mixture of unanswered right handed body shots and overhand rights. Acolatse is now 7-0 in fights this season.

At 17:11 of the first period, Gogol leveled IceCaps forward Carl Klingberg with a crunch of a hit in the left corner of the IceCaps zone. Taking exception to Gogol’s hit, IceCaps forward Patrice Cormier immediately dropped the gloves and went after Gogol. Gogol won the brief scrap by connecting with a big left hand that dropped Cormier. The fight was Gogol’s 12^th of the season.

85 seconds later, Mashinter dropped the gloves with Murray after Murray whacked Connolly in the face with a two-handed swing of his hockey stick along the left side of the IceCaps zone. Mashinter immediately grabbed a hold of Murray, who tried to turtle up, and pounded Murray down to the ice with five solid right hands. Despite being right on top of the play, Vinnerborg did not call a high sticking penalty on Murray.

15 seconds later, Livingston was called for a roughing penalty for going after IceCaps forward Jason Jaffray after Jaffray took an extra shot at Sateri after Sateri stopped IceCaps forward Ben Maxwell’s backhand shot. The call on Livingston was the third minor penalty called on the Sharks in the period and prompted captain Mike Moore to have a conversation with Vinnerborg as the IceCaps hadn’t been whistled for any minor penalties.

Postma gave the IceCaps a 1-0 lead with his ninth goal of the season just 55 seconds into the second period. Just as Livingston’s penalty expired, Postma fired a slapshot on net from the top of the right point that bounced off the wall, deflected off Sateri’s left leg and into the net for the goal.

Fireworks exploded at 9:59 as Gogol dropped the gloves with IceCaps forward Kenndal McArdle after McArdle drilled Sharks forward Brodie Reid into the lower board at center ice. Gogol flew at McArdle with gloves off, and the two engaged in a fast and furious fight that saw Gogol land several shots before losing his balance and falling to the ice.

As the linesmen were separating Gogol from McArdle, Sharks forward Nathan Moon dropped the gloves with Murray in the left corner of the IceCaps zone as the two had been chirping at each other prior to the face-off. Murray pounded down Moon in a 20 second battle. After beating Moon, Murray threw off his jersey and helmet, and skated by the Sharks bench to taunt them. Murray’s taunting enraged Sharks head coach Roy Sommer, who loudly gave Murray a piece of his mind.

Murray, who registered a hat-trick of fights, was ejected from the game along with Moon as both received game misconducts from Vinnerborg for being the secondary altercation. However, Sharks play-by-play announcer Eric Lindquist said on air that Murray should’ve received three game misconducts for the hat-trick of fights, being the secondary altercation and for throwing his jersey to the ice.

Livingston tied the game at 1-1 with his fifth goal of the season at 16:26. Applying pressure inside the IceCaps zone off a face-off win, Petrecki fired a shot on net from the top of the left point that Sharks forward Frazer McLaren stopped in front. McLaren skated out towards the left corner and shot the puck towards the crease where Livingston corralled the loose puck and banged the puck into open net for the goal.

As Livingston was celebrating his goal, Jaffray and IceCaps defenseman Travis Ramsey double teamed Del Monte down to the ice inside the crease. The Sharks came flying in to help Del Monte, resulting in a huge scrum up. Despite being right on top of the play, Vinnerborg did not call a penalty on Jaffray or Ramsey.

Klingberg gave the IceCaps a 2-1 lead with his 12^th goal of the season just 64 seconds into the third period. With the puck inside the Sharks zone, Postma fired a shot on net from on top of the right face-off circle that pin balled around and Klingberg put into an open net for the goal.

Del Monte tied the game at 5:57 with his fourth goal of the season on a nifty backhanded shot from on top of the face-off circles that beat IceCaps goalie David Aebischer on the blocker side for the goal. Gogol was credited with the lone assist on the goal.

Just 18 seconds later, Connolly quieted the sold out Mile One Center by giving the Sharks their first lead of the game with his 10^th goal of the season. Off the ensuing face-off, Kennedy entered the IceCaps zone on the right side and got the puck over to Mashinter, who was positioned inside the left face-off circle. Mashinter passed the puck out to sharks defenseman Matt Irwin, who fired a one timer on net from the top of the left point that missed the net. Kennedy knocked the loose puck down at the left side of the goalie crease, and after Mashinter got a piece of the puck, Connolly shot the puck through the five-hole of Aebischer from in-tight for the goal.

At 6:47, Del Monte dropped the gloves with Kulda, and after Del Monte knocked Kulda down, Kulda got up and knocked Del Monte down. However, Kulda continued to throw punches while standing over Del Monte, which caused McLaren to come in as he wanted a piece of Kulda, resulting in a near line brawl.

After being separated from Kulda, McLaren skated by the IceCaps bench with his sleeves rolled up and challenged the entire IceCaps bench. For being the third man in, McLaren was given a misconduct for unsportsmanlike conduct and Del Monte somehow got an extra two from Vinnerborg for roughing.

At 12:05, Petrecki rocked Aebischer with the hit of the season! After killing off Petrecki’s slashing minor, the Sharks skated in 3-on-1 on Aebischer but Livingston couldn’t settle the puck down. Aebischer, who had stretched out to his left to stop Livingston, was skated into by Cormier, which knocked Aebischer’s goalie mask off. As Aebischer got up to go back to his goal crease, Petrecki DRILLED Aebischer with a solid body check that sent Aebischer crashing down to the ice. Another scrum up ensued, and Vinnerborg assessed both Aebischer and Petrecki roughing minors.

With 2:05 remaining in the third period, Holzapfel was called for hooking. The IceCaps pulled Aebischer with 60 seconds remaining for an extra skater to make it 5-on-5. With 15 seconds remaining, Kennedy won a face-off inside the Sharks zone, and Connolly chipped the puck ahead to Mashinter, who skated into the IceCaps zone and put the puck into the empty net to seal the Sharks win. The goal was a power play goal and Mashinter’s eighth goal of the season.

For the game, the Sharks were outshot 29-23, were 1-for-3 with the man advantage and 6-for-6 on the penalty kill... The Sharks were assessed 64 penalty minutes on 15 infractions while the IceCaps were assessed 48 penalty minutes on 11 infractions... MacIntyre {inj}, Guite {inj}, Lucia {inj}, Brian O’Hanley {scr} and Jimmy Bonneau {scr} did not dress for the Sharks... The Sharks now have 76 fighting majors through 44 games, the most in the AHL... Acolatse took a puck to the face with 2:02 remaining in the first period and did not return... Sexsmith was reassigned to Worcester from San Jose but did not join the team... Combs had his point streak come to an end... Coach Sommer is now ONE win away from 500 for his AHL career... The Sharks are 19^th in the AHL on the power play at 17.1%, eighth in penalty killing at 83.9% and second in penalty minutes at 21.4 per game.

STALOCK WINS AGAIN IN STOCKTON

Photo courtesy of www.stocktonthunder.com

On Friday night {Feb. 3}, Sharks goalie Alex Stalock stopped 29-of-31 shots to lead the Stockton Thunder to a 7-2 victory over the visiting Idaho Steelheads. Stalock is now 5-0-0 with a 2.40 goals against average and .923 save percentage.

Sharks waive Andrew Murray

2012-02-06T18:01:47Z

Sharks waive Andrew Murray

According to the infallible Bob McKenzie, Andrew Murray has been put on waivers this morning. If a team puts in a claim, we won't know about it until tomorrow.

Weird move since the Sharks are currenly hurting for forwards, and Andrew Murray has been a good piece on the fourth line in our opinion.

Don't know quite what it means, but it's definitely fishy. Look for more information tomorrow.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities: With Bonus Fenwick Analysis!

2012-02-05T19:58:03Z

Happy Pigskin day everybody! I should mention that as you read this post, Soloact has a great complimentary post with running magic and tragic numbers that's worth reading as well.

We're looking at the playoff picture based on score adjusted Fenwick% again this week (with a minor correction). I also wanted to pick up on something I had posted earlier in the year when we looked at how SJ has compared to the elite teams in the west. This time I added a team by team comparison, as well as plotting expected fenwick% to see which teams SJ has performed well against. Tables and charts after the jump.

Western Predicted Final Standings

Final Standings	Team	Score Adj Fenwick%	Playoff Probability	Mean Points	Mean Wins	Mean Ties	Mean Losses	Change in PP
1	Detroit Red Wings	56.11	100.0%	111.00	52.80	5.40	23.80	0.0%
2	Vancouver Canucks	52.19	99.8%	105.79	48.56	8.67	24.77	0.7%
3	San Jose Sharks	53.08	99.1%	103.64	46.87	9.90	25.23	1.2%
4	St. Louis Blues	55.01	99.9%	107.39	48.34	10.72	22.95	0.1%
5	Chicago Blackhawks	52.86	97.0%	100.06	44.76	10.54	26.70	-1.3%
6	Nashville Predators	46.41	81.8%	95.15	43.85	7.45	30.70	7.0%
7	Los Angeles Kings	51.00	75.1%	93.71	40.08	13.56	28.36	-3.2%
8	Dallas Stars	49.68	52.0%	90.41	42.30	5.80	33.89	3.3%
9	Colorado Avalanche	50.61	29.2%	87.56	40.56	6.45	34.99	-12.8%
10	Phoenix Coyotes	49.26	25.1%	86.61	37.46	11.68	32.86	1.5%
11	Minnesota Wild	44.94	19.4%	86.10	37.25	11.60	33.15	0.0%
12	Calgary Flames	47.84	19.0%	85.64	37.98	9.68	34.34	2.4%
13	Edmonton Oilers	48.05	1.8%	78.65	34.98	8.69	38.33	1.3%
14	Anaheim Ducks	46.83	0.7%	76.85	32.54	11.77	37.69	-0.2%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	48.58	0.0%	65.10	27.72	9.65	44.62	0.0%

Eastern Predicted Final Standings

Final Standings	Team	Score Adj Fenwick%	Playoff Probability	Mean Points	Mean Wins	Mean Ties	Mean Losses	Change in PP
1	Boston Bruins	52.42	99.6%	105.35	49.72	5.91	26.37	-0.24%
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	54.73	99.1%	103.07	47.73	7.61	26.66	0.02%
3	Florida Panthers	49.01	74.0%	93.55	39.37	14.81	27.82	6.28%
4	New York Rangers	48.21	98.9%	103.42	47.18	9.06	25.76	0.40%
5	Philadelphia Flyers	51.56	98.4%	102.11	46.15	9.82	26.04	-0.04%
6	New Jersey Devils	49.98	83.3%	95.42	44.30	6.83	30.88	12.56%
7	Toronto Maple Leafs	48.76	65.7%	92.38	41.34	9.70	30.96	12.76%
8	Ottawa Senators	49.98	56.7%	91.29	40.48	10.34	31.18	-16.78%
9	Washington Capitals	48.08	54.7%	90.77	41.49	7.80	32.71	-8.26%
10	Winnipeg Jets	50.50	31.9%	87.58	39.01	9.56	33.43	-3.30%
11	Tampa Bay Lightning	48.57	14.0%	84.22	37.71	8.81	35.48	5.04%
12	New York Islanders	49.39	12.5%	83.87	36.02	11.82	34.15	2.76%
13	Buffalo Sabres	48.06	4.8%	81.51	35.91	9.68	36.41	1.48%
14	Montreal Canadiens	49.63	4.8%	81.18	34.24	12.71	35.06	-12.32%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	47.92	1.7%	79.05	33.30	12.44	36.26	-0.36%

Tables again sortable, click on the column headers to sort. Full explanation of the model here. Full spreadsheet here

This time I included the last column which shows the change in playoff probability from last week. The biggest gains in the west are NSH and DAL increasing the playoff probability by 7.0% and 3.3% this week respectively, while COL dropped a remarkable 12.8%. The east is looking to be a much tighter race, with TOR (12.76%) and NJ (12.56%) gaining the most ground, while WSH (-8.26%), MTL (-12.32%), and OTT (-16.78%) collapsing since last week.

The race for the Atlantic division crown is the most competitive divisional race this year with 3 teams locked up in battle. PIT, NYR, and PHI are all but tied, winning the division in 35%, 34%, and 26% of sims respectively. I thought the central would be really competitive down the stretch, but it looks like DET is starting to pull away, winning it in 65% of sims.

the race for the president's trophy is still on, although DET's (42%) dominance lately has them as the front-runner. STL (18%), BOS (10%), and VAN (10%) are still in the mix.

The Sharks are in about the same position they were in at the start of the week, and continue to look like the team to beat in the pacific winning the division in 87% of sims. They also show a slight increase in winning the west (8%) and league (6%).

I kept track of SJ's points (for 1000 simulated seasons) so I could come up with this histogram. From above we see that SJ had a mean of about 104 points, they're standard deviation was 5.12. Theoretically they're 95% Confidence Interval would be between 95-115 points.

Switching gears, let's look at how SJ has performed this year against sub-sets of competition.

EV Fenwick%

Opponents	GP	Fen%	G%	P%	GP	Road Fen%	Road G%	Road P%	GP	Home Fen%	Home G%	Home P%
Top 5	9	0.458	0.549	0.611	4	0.450	0.567	0.625	5	0.465	0.536	0.600
Top 10	16	0.473	0.588	0.688	8	0.458	0.502	0.251	8	0.489	0.674	0.337
Middle 10	16	0.554	0.572	0.656	5	0.510	0.673	0.800	11	0.574	0.526	0.591
Bottom 10	17	0.575	0.537	0.618	8	0.570	0.531	0.625	9	0.580	0.543	0.611
Bottom 5	11	0.589	0.453	0.500	5	0.587	0.436	0.600	6	0.590	0.467	0.417

A few weeks ago after SJ was pummeled by CHI I took a look at some of the advanced numbers behind SJ's game against top talent. SJ has had some modest improvement over this time. But the numbers are ultimately about the same. This time I also included a team by team comparison, and things begin to look a bit clearer. For starter's the major driving factor behind SJ's low fenwick% against top teams is how badly DET has out shot SJ. A lot of this has to do with score effects. Although I haven't run the numbers, I'l bet when you look at SJ vs. DET in game close situations (within 1 goal through 2 periods, tied in the 3rd) the numbers aren't nearly as off.

Team by Team EV Fenwick% Comparison

Team	GP	Fen%	G%	P%	OppFenClose	Fenexp	Fendiff
PHX	2	0.633	0.500	1.00	0.502	0.534	0.099
MIN	3	0.623	0.476	1.00	0.546	0.531	0.092
EDM	2	0.619	0.333	1.50	0.525	0.529	0.090
DAL	3	0.566	0.750	2.00	0.512	0.512	0.053
ANA	4	0.565	0.371	0.50	0.548	0.512	0.053
STL	2	0.555	0.375	0.00	0.442	0.509	0.046
NSH	2	0.554	0.700	1.50	0.548	0.509	0.045
CGY	2	0.547	0.750	2.00	0.522	0.506	0.041
CBJ	3	0.532	0.667	2.00	0.506	0.502	0.031
VAN	4	0.513	0.383	0.75	0.497	0.495	0.018
L.A	3	0.492	0.667	1.33	0.485	0.489	0.003
COL	3	0.447	0.599	1.67	0.485	0.474	-0.027
CHI	3	0.442	0.476	1.00	0.473	0.473	-0.031
DET	2	0.363	0.833	2.00	0.434	0.447	-0.084
Avg	6	0.532	0.563	1.304	0.502	0.502	0.031

I also decided to chart SJ's opponents average fenwick% close against, vs. their actual EV fenwick% to see which teams SJ seemed to be outplaying, or underplaying. Things actually seem pretty consistent. What this chart really brings to the clear is that SJ's toughest competitors this year have been DET, CHI, and (surprisingly) COL, who are having a bit of an unlucky year. While mostly destroying PHX and MIN, again score effects playing a big role here. Maybe with time I'll limit the results to score close situations, which should give us a clearer picture.

Defensive errors cost Sharks in loss to Phoenix

2012-02-05T04:52:15Z

You wouldn't necessarily expect a tilt with the Phoenix Coyotes to be a high-event affair but with 38 scoring chances between the teams over the course of the evening, it was exactly that. Although the Sharks had a greater share of possession early in the first period, the Coyotes really carried the play by the chances, outchancing the Sharks 8-2 in the game's opening twenty minutes in addition to a couple of shots from the outside that rang iron courtesy Gilbert Brule and Adrian Aucoin.

San Jose turned the tables in the second, registering 12 chances to Phoenix's 7 including a 4-0 chance run to open the period that ended with a Logan Couture goal as the All-Star center deflected a shot from Ryane Clowe at point-blank range then converted the rebound. Phoenix would tie the game just 32 seconds later as, despite Michal Handzus winning a neutral zone faceoff, the Sharks ceded the blue line and Dan Boyle failed to pick up Raffi Torres who roofed the puck over Antti Niemi to end a lengthy shutout streak for the Sharks netminder.

The Coyotes took a 2-1 lead 9:21 into the period as a tenacious forecheck by Boyd Gordon stripped the puck from Colin White behind the net and allowed Shane Doan to set up a wide open Lauri Korpikoski for a one-timer that found twine. Adrian Aucoin would punch Torrey Mitchell in the head a little over a minute later putting the Sharks on the man advantage and a power play that's been dominant at generating shots and chances all season long but is finally starting to see the fruits of their labor manifest as of late connected once again as Jamie McGinn deflected a slap-pass from Brent Burns past Mike Smith. The game would stay tied until a disastrous line change for the Sharks gifted Phoenix a 2-on-1 with Ray Whitney setting up Martin Hanzal for a goal that deflected off Burns' stick and into the net.

Despite score effects suggesting that the Coyotes would likely sit back and play conservatively in the third, they ended up outchancing the Sharks 5-3 while both goalies were in net, doing an excellent job of limiting the Sharks' opportunities while picking up an insurance tally from Korpikoski that would prove to be the game winner. Though San Jose did end up outshooting Phoenix 35-24 and got a late goal from Patrick Marleau to close the gap on the scoreboard, it's tough to win in the NHL when you give up 20 scoring chances (Full chance summary after the jump). The offense was there for the Sharks but poor defensive coverage and a few ill-advised errors ended up burning them.

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	2	8	2	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
2	12	7	11	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
3	4	5	3	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	18	20	16	18	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0

Team	Period	Time	Note	SJS						Opponent
SJS	1	12:24	Handzus	5	17	26	31	61	64	22	32	37	41	53	89	5v5
PHX	1	12:07	Langkow	5	10	31	43	61	78	22	32	37	41	53	89	5v5
PHX	1	10:35	Vrbata	8	22	31	39	44	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
PHX	1	10:33	Vrbata	8	22	31	39	44	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
PHX	1	9:28	Doan	17	22	26	31	44	64	15	19	28	32	41	53	5v5
PHX	1	4:44	Hanzal	8	19	22	31	44	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
SJS	1	3:56	Pavelski	8	19	22	31	44	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
PHX	1	3:02	Langkow	3	10	31	43	78	88	3	22	33	37	41	89	5v5
PHX	1	2:25	Pyatt	3	17	26	31	64	88	14	24	32	41	53	89	5v5
PHX	1	1:32	Doan PP	22	31	39	44	69		3	11	13	17	19	41	4v5
SJS	2	18:51	Desjardins	3	8	19	22	31	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
SJS	2	17:59	McGinn	5	17	26	31	61	64	11	32	37	41	53	89	5v5
SJS	2	16:17	Couture	5	12	29	31	39	61	3	8	14	24	33	41	5v5
SJS	2	16:16	Goal - Couture	5	12	29	31	39	61	3	8	14	24	33	41	5v5
PHX	2	15:44	Goal - Torres	17	22	26	31	44	64	22	32	37	41	53	89	5v5
SJS	2	14:18	Thornton	3	8	19	31	69	88	22	32	37	41	53	89	5v5
PHX	2	12:58	Langkow	5	17	26	31	61	64	3	22	33	37	41	89	5v5
SJS	2	12:48	Mitchell	17	22	26	31	44	64	3	22	28	33	41	89	5v5
SJS	2	12:30	Marleau	12	22	29	31	39	44	15	16	19	23	28	41	5v5
SJS	2	10:51	Pavelski	5	8	19	31	61	69	11	13	17	32	41	53	5v5
PHX	2	10:31	Goal - Korpikoski	5	8	19	31	61	69	15	16	19	23	28	41	5v5
SJS	2	7:34	Goal - McGinn PP	19	22	29	31	64	88	11	17	23	32	41		5v4
PHX	2	5:53	Vrbata	8	19	31	44	69	88	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
SJS	2	5:28	Thornton	8	19	31	44	69	88	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
SJS	2	5:22	Thornton	5	19	29	31	61	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
PHX	2	4:45	Yandle	5	12	29	31	39	61	3	13	15	19	28	33	5v5
PHX	2	3:34	Whitney PP	3	19	26	31	88		3	11	13	17	19	41	4v5
SJS	2	1:24	Pavelski	8	19	22	31	44	69	11	13	17	32	41	53	5v5
PHX	2	0:46	Goal - Hanzal	8	31	39	44	69	88	11	13	17	32	41	53	5v5
PHX	3	19:02	Whitney	8	19	22	31	44	69	11	13	16	17	23	41	5v5
SJS	3	17:21	Handzus PP	26	29	31	61	64	88	15	28	33	41	53		5v4
PHX	3	12:02	Korpikoski	3	12	19	29	31	88	15	19	28	32	41	53	5v5
PHX	3	11:57	Goal - Korpikoski	3	12	19	29	31	88	3	15	19	28	33	41	5v5
SJS	3	11:17	McGinn	5	17	26	31	61	64	3	22	33	37	41	89	5v5
PHX	3	10:09	Chipchura	8	19	22	31	78	88	13	16	17	24	41	53	5v5
PHX	3	6:17	Doan	8	12	22	29	31	88	3	15	19	28	33	41	5v5
SJS	3	5:09	Marleau	12	22	29	31	39	88	15	19	28	32	41	53	5v5
SJS	3	0:33	Goal - Marleau 6v5	8	12	19	22	29	39	11	13	16	19	41	53	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
3	D. MURRAY	15:02	2	4	0:00	0	0	2:56	0	1
5	C. WHITE	9:41	7	4	0:06	0	0	1:35	0	0
8	J. PAVELSKI	17:53	7	9	2:13	0	0	1:34	0	0
10	B. WINCHESTER	9:40	0	2	0:06	0	0	0:00	0	0
12	P. MARLEAU	16:35	5	4	1:51	0	0	1:12	0	0
17	T. MITCHELL	9:31	4	4	0:06	0	0	1:39	0	0
19	J. THORNTON	17:00	8	7	2:37	1	0	1:16	0	1
22	D. BOYLE	22:32	7	8	2:46	1	0	1:55	0	1
26	M. HANDZUS	8:58	4	4	0:38	1	0	1:41	0	1
29	R. CLOWE	18:01	6	4	1:15	2	0	0:00	0	0
31	A. NIEMI	48:21	15	18	3:21	2	0	6:00	0	2
39	L. COUTURE	16:32	5	4	2:00	0	0	2:11	0	1
43	J. MCCARTHY	8:33	0	2	0:06	0	0	0:00	0	0
44	M. VLASIC	21:01	5	8	0:00	0	0	2:38	0	1
61	J. BRAUN	12:01	7	4	0:35	1	0	1:09	0	0
64	J. MCGINN	10:07	4	4	1:24	2	0	0:00	0	0
69	A. DESJARDINS	14:53	7	7	0:00	0	0	2:27	0	1
78	B. FERRIERO	7:22	0	3	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
88	B. BURNS	20:11	3	8	1:02	2	0	1:47	0	1

Head-to-head scoring chances:

Reader Timorous Me brought up an excellent point in the comments of the scoring chance recap for the Stars game, noting that Brent Burns and Douglas Murray have been getting clobbered for pretty much the entire duration they've been a pairing. Including tonight's poor showing, Murray has been outchanced 34-22 (0.393 chance ratio) at even strength while Burns has been outchanced 38-24 (0.387) at evens in the six full games for which they've been paired (excluding the Oilers game in which Burns got injured). In contrast, Burns' chance ratio over the rest of the season was 0.601 while Murray's was 0.508. Hopefully Jason Demers is available to draw into the lineup soon as some of his best hockey of the season came while paired with Burns. Even without Demers, it might be time for the coaching staff to return to Vlasic/Burns and Murray/Boyle with the former facing top competition this time.

As for the rest of the team, Dave Tippett ensured that Martin Hanzal received a steady dose of Joe Thornton and Jumbo performed really well in that role as it was unfortunately Logan Couture who struggled to drive the play in the little time he spent against Phoenix's top line although he made up for it by being the only member of his unit to finish on the positive side of the ledger against Shane Doan. Kudos to the third line for holding their own by the chances (albeit not on the scoreboard) against a very underrated two-way center in Daymond Langkow.

More stats from the game: Corsi/Fenwick, Shift Charts, H2H Ice Time, Zonestarts, Play-By-Play, Box Score