Fear The Fin

Sharks Gameday: Who Knows

2010-03-19T10:00:37Z

	@ 6:00 PST
43-17-10, 96 points		35-26-9, 79 points
2nd in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

Television	CSN-CA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Matchsticks & GasolineFlames Nation

I don't even know what to say. Here's how the Sharks have performed in back to backs this season:

San Jose B2B's (09-10)

	W	L	GSO	GF	GA	SF	SA
First Game	7	2	2	3.56	2.09	33.6	30.6
Second Game	5	3	3	2.64	2.00	29.2	37.0
Differential	-	-	-	-0.92	-0.09	-4.4	-6.4

Sixty minutes tonight. Improvement in comparison to previous outings, especially considering what has occurred throughout the season and after the Olympic break, doesn't really matter anymore.

There were some good signs yesterday, but it's black and white from here on out.

Prediction: San Jose comes out and dominates.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Improve Their Play, but the Winless Streak Continues

2010-03-19T05:37:03Z

More photos » Darryl Dyck - AP

about 8 hours ago: Vancouver Canucks' Christian Ehrhoff, left, of Germany, and San Jose Sharks' Niclas Wallin, of Sweden, collide during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, on Thursday, March 18, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

Browse more photos »

Looking to end the longest winless streak since December, the Sharks managed to come short again, and instead extended the streak to four games. This losing streak is getting harder and harder to bear, as the last three losses came in regulation, and the Sharks did not have a lead in any of those games. Looking at the players, as they were leaving the ice after the sound of the game ending buzzer, we could see that they felt frustrated once again and as I type this, the locker room must have that same funeral atmosphere that it had two days ago. Should the Sharks continue to feel frustrated, or did we finally see a ray of hope?

Taken as a whole, this was a better effort from the Sharks, when compared to the last two games against the Ducks and the Stars. The players came out willing to compete for pucks, willing to battle along the boards, and as game progressed, in the 2nd and 3rd period the Sharks started taking over the puck possession and creating more chances. The big turnaround began with a powerful drive to the net by Ryane Clowe as he skated past our old friend Christian Ehrhoff, as it was a pick up game somewhere in Frankfurt, and lifted the puck past Roberto Luongo. Could this have been a moment the Sharks started their sleep at the bottom of the deep ocean? It appeared that way for about 12 minutes until the Canucks pulled away again on a goal by Ryan Johnson. On top of that, Luongo was not going to let that game spin out of control, as he stopped one Sharks attack after another. The last five minutes of the game belonged entirely to the Sharks after another highlight reel goal by Joe Pavelski, but the Sharks needed two to take the game into overtime and the desperate effort in the final moments of the game did not translate into goals. The local hero for Team Canada Bobby Lou swallowed everything that was thrown his way.

But when was this game lost?

Once again, the game was lost in the first period. We were expecting the Sharks to fly on the ice after all that talk in the locker room and after an extra practice in Dallas. We thought they would come out and be focused on the task at hand and play like there was no tomorrow. Instead, the team came out flat, and after taking three lazy penalties in a row, they could not kill two of them, as Vancouver took an early lead. The parade of the Sharks to the penalty box at the start of the game has been an issue all season. It kills the momentum, it wears out the defensive forwards and the defense, and especially on the road - it gets the home crowd into the game.

And while the Sharks still fell short, the last two periods of the game gave a sense of the light at the end of this long tunnel. The Sharks started finding their game once McLellan put the stop to the wild line shuffling he's been playing since the Sharks got on the road. Once Heatley was playing next to Marleau and Thornton beginning with the 2nd period, and Setoguchi was playing next to Pavelksi and Clowe, the game changes its tone and direction, and if not for an outstanding play by Luongo, the outcome could have been different.

All signs point that the turnaround is not too far away.

Sharks Gameday: Turning Point

2010-03-18T10:00:44Z

	@ 7:00 PST
43-16-10, 96 points		43-24-3, 89 points
1st in Western Conference		3rd in Western Conference

Television	CSN-CA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Nucks Misconduct

[Update]: According to our Worcester Sharks source (Broadcaster and Media Relations Director Eric Lindquist), Logan Couture has indeed been called up for tonights game. No news on the line combos.

We've waxed pretty heavily over the last 120 hours. Without a doubt, this stretch of Sharks hockey has seen me question the team more than I ever have during any other span of a regular season. A blown lead against Florida, a lazy game against Anaheim, and then a complete implosion against Dallas led me down a path I don't travel often.

Talking with a coworker yesterday, the old adage "at least we're getting the slump out of the way now" came up. Although that could be an apt point, it didn't hold true for the team last year. This isn't just a slump; the team is facing some major personnel issues and an overall lack of effort. That's not to say that these issues can't be fixed, but as of this point in the season, I'm not seeing it.

That's why tonight's game against Vancouver is, in my opinion, the most important game the Sharks will play this season. Plank wrote a telling article yesterday, highlighting the Sharks struggles against Western Conference opponents and the fact that Phoenix is gaining ground in the Pacific division race. Ideally, the Sharks would have cleaned up against the non playoff teams faced earlier in the week, and a loss against the Canucks would have done little to affect the team's collective psyche. Now, though, that's not the case.

If the Sharks don't show up tonight, I've got serious doubts about their chances for any modicum of postseason success.

The game does present itself with an opportunity, though. If the Sharks win tonight, I think it could be the turning point to their season. Vancouver is a solid team, and they'll punish the Sharks for each and every mistake they make, much like Dallas did on Tuesday night. If the Sharks don't come out hard, with effort, they'll get embarrassed. If that happens, look to this game as the one where the Sharks just couldn't put the season's toothpaste back in the tube.

We can discuss the deteriorating play of Nabokov after the Olympics, the curious tendency of McLellan to change line combos that have functioned all season (to the tune of a career year for Patrick Marleau), the refusal to keep up AHL star prospect Logan Couture until this critical point in the season (as it appears he's been called up for tonight's game), or Doug Wilson's inability to improve the defense at the trade deadline. I feel like we've covered these things time and time again.

The players on the ice have little control of the above. They do, however, control the level of effort, which in turn makes the problems above seem less severe. I want effort. I want this game to be close. I want it to be a 3-2 slug-fest where the Sharks have to work for every puck, win battles, fight for rebounds, crowd the neutral zone, and establish offensive flow. To me, that's the only way I know they're back in it. If they come out and dominate, I've seen that before. I want to watch them fight a game out. If they get embarrassed again, well, I don't want to think about it.

Moral of the story, this team has the talent to succeed, but unless they discover the necessity of playing a full 60 minutes or more in ALL GAMES, they're going to have a tough time making any kind of noise in the upcoming playoffs.

Last note: Dan Boyle should have been made captain during the off season. I can't get over the leadership he shows on and (apparently) off the ice. If there's any part of me that's confident in the Sharks right now, it's the part that knows Dan Boyle just won't let himself play below 100%, and he expects the same of his teammates.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-2. Goals by Thornton, Heatley, and Marleau. McLellan invents a machine that does in fact put toothpaste back in the tube. Makes millions.

Go Sharks.

Logan Couture possibly called up to San Jose

2010-03-18T05:31:10Z

[Editor's Note]: Confirmed with Worcester Sharks PR Representative Eric Lundquist.

Courtesy of Plank's email inbox:

Hey Fear The Fin I was listening to the Worcester Sharks radio broadcast tonight and they mentioned that Logan Couture was being called up to play against Vancouver tomorrow night. We recently have been on a four game win streak that got snapped so it hurts to lose him before playoffs but the big boys need him right now so that's that I guess. I don't have a link for you like you mentioned you would like when we talked last month but I can assure you this isn't being made up.

- Nick

This is nothing but good news.

TCY and I have been big fans of Logan Couture for a good long time, and my wonderful blogging partner even bought a jersey earlier this year at the same time I acquired a McGinn Black Armor.

We're pretty cute like that.

At any rate, business. I previously called for Couture to get the nod once the trade deadline had passed, stating that he would be a good fit as a third line center with McGinn and Clowe. TCY reiterated that point in an article two days later, stating that McGinn and Couture could be the key to the San Jose Sharks playoff success.

In an interview with Fear The Fin over the Olympic break, Jamie McGinn mentioned chemistry when speaking about his former Ottawa 67 teammate.

"He is one of those guys where I seem to know where he is on the ice at all times, and he knows where I am," said McGinn. "He just seems to be able to put the puck in the net and be able to put it on my stick and vice versa. It's nice to have that."

In summation, I really like this move. The Sharks need a kick in the pants right now after struggling after the Olympic break, and a new addition to the lineup will hopefully allow Todd McLellan to establish some consistent lines before the playoffs. Here is what I would like to see tomorrow night:

Dany Heatley - Joe Thornton - Devin Setoguchi

Patrick Marleau - Joe Pavelski - Manny Malhotra

Jamie McGinn - Logan Couture - Ryane Clowe

Jed Ortmeyer - Scott Nichol - Torrey Mitchell

Could this be the catalyst San Jose needs? Tune in tomorrow to find out.

Go Sharks.

Reconstructing the Western Conference Playoff Standings

2010-03-17T05:50:44Z

View full size photo »

A brief note before I get into this.

The tendency after some big losses is to pile on the team, bury them in criticism and state that all hope is lost when it comes to performing in the postseason. I understand that anger as well as anyone, and one thing that I have learned over the years covering this team is that burying your head in the sand when it comes to trends only results in getting blindsided. I have admittedly become much more jaded as time goes by, specifically this season, where youthful exuberance for the start of hockey led to hand-wringing a mere six games later.

It's the nature of the beast really. This fanbase has been burned so many times before, on so many different levels, that we have become a nation of whiners and malcontents. You, me, the dude playing guitar on the far side of West Santa Clara Street following every home game. We are spoiled by regular season success. We look forward to nothing more than the playoffs, and take every victory during the first 82 games with a grain of salt.

My hope is that today's discussion does not fall into name-calling and blanket statements that "the same ol' chokejob" is a foregone conclusion, because it truly is not. San Jose has struggled since the Olympic break but there needs to be a realization here that thirteen games do remain in the regular season; and while this article does point out some rather middling trends against the Western Conference elite, April is ultimately an unknown.

We have no idea what will happen, only previous performances to guide us when speculating on what will. Nothing is set in stone.

Let's not forget that.

The Sharks record against Western Conference playoff teams has been an issue for awhile now, and it's an area of the team that has me concerned going forward. Whether or not this means anything substantial to the masses is likely up for debate.

This post attempts to provide some context for that debate to take place.

The playoffs are a funny thing. Extremely volatile in terms of matchups, especially in the ever-deep Western Conference where a first round draw isn't going to be a walk in the park no matter who you end up facing. Although the term "parity" has become quite the modus operandi during Gary Bettman's reign as Commissioner, it's hard to debate that notion when it comes to the final seedings out West-- by and large all eight clubs are fairly competitive on some level or another, with each one bringing a different type of skill set to the table. You have your veteran teams with experience on their side, young clubs who have played above their head all season, hot teams, cold teams, fallen short of expectations teams, physical teams, freewheeling teams-- just about every crayon in the box is represented.

Detroit is the white Crayola; no one wants it around. But lo and behold it always ends up in the box, unblemished, standing above all others after two months of use.

Nine teams are currently in the Western Conference playoff mix, and all have varying chances of obtaining a postseason berth according to James Mirtle's Playoff Push. For this exercise I have chosen to exclude the Blues and Wild on down, as it looks to be a long and tumultuous road for any of those teams to crack the top eight. However, crazier things have happened (St. Louis last season ironically), and the advent of the three point game makes nearly anything possible. If the standings change substantially by the time I post again on the subject a week and half from now, those potential teams will be included.

As I mentioned earlier, the Sharks record against playoff teams has brought with it some concerns. There has always been a question of whether or not the organization is able to elevate their play when it comes to the top teams in the league, and for the most part, those questions remain unanswered this season.

Today we have a nine team sample (#1 seeded San Jose down to the #9 seeded Flames), and their records against other potential Western Conference playoff opponents. Shootout decisions have been thrown out of the win/loss column.

The amount of games played will fluctuate between teams. This is due to a pair of reasons.

The first is the fact that each team has played a varying number of games against these opponents. For example, Colorado has nine games remaining against potential Western Conference playoff teams, while Detroit only has four. The second is that some teams go to the shootout more often than others, and therefore will have more games tossed out of the sample.

Games that went to the shootout are listed as GSO. They are not included in the GP column.

Also, and this is very important, the goals for and goals against scored in regulation during shootout games will be included in the GF/G and GA/G numbers. While this may seem strange at first (why include these statistics when you are throwing out the game results), it makes sense intuitivitely-- what we are measuring in that category is how proficient a team is at scoring and keeping the puck out of the net against playoff teams during regulation and overtime play. Therefore, this chart encompasses all of the relevant in-game statistics that teams have amassed when playing one another, while throwing out the results of a situation (shootout) that will not occur one month from now.

If this bothers you for whatever reason, and you would like the goals for/against numbers to be thrown out for all games that reach the shootout, I have attached those standings here. However, I prefer the chart below for the reasons stated above, and will use this format in future postings.

What follows is all nine teams games ranked according to winning percentage (WIN%). That is the main thrust of this article, and really is where the focus should be-- wins and losses are pretty black and white at this point, no matter how many goals you score along the way:

Reconstructed Western Conference Standings

#	Team	GP	GSO	GF/G	GA/G	G Dif.	W	L	WIN%
1	Chicago	24	6	3.03	2.27	+0.76	16	8	66.6%
2	Detroit	28	4	2.78	2.53	+0.25	17	11	60.7%
3	Vancouver	24	4	3.25	2.43	+0.82	14	10	58.3%
4	Phoenix	18	9	2.15	2.33	-0.18	9	9	50.0%
5	Nashville	30	1	2.52	2.87	-0.35	14	16	46.6%
6	San Jose	22	6	2.89	2.89	E	10	12	45.4%
7	Colorado	21	5	2.42	2.88	-0.46	9	12	42.8%
8	Calgary	26	3	2.31	2.69	-0.38	11	15	42.3%
9	Los Angeles	25	4	2.34	2.86	-0.52	9	16	36.0%

A couple things jump out from this list.

For starters, it looks to me like there is a definite split once you get past Vancouver-- although the Sharks are currently stuck in sixth place, it's really not that immense of a drop from the four spot where Phoenix resides. Chicago, Detroit, and Vancouver are playing up to the level of competition, while the remaining six teams have all struggled to varying degrees. The Sharks are far from being in the lower half of the Conference in terms of skill level, but I think a case could be made that they aren't necessarily as elite as the NHL standings may currently indicate.

Back in December I penned an article predicting that the Red Wings would make the playoffs, and end up somewhere in the four to five range. While that may have been a little presumptuous considering it would take nothing short of a Herculean effort to get to the middle of the group at this point, it is far from an appealing option to have them floating around in the bottom third of the Western Conference bubble, especially when you consider how well they have done against potential playoff teams.

To say nothing of their historic dominance of San Jose in Joe Louis Arena.

Avoiding Detroit, as the entirety of Fear The Fin has echoed all season, is absolutely essential for this club to make a deep run. As was mentioned earlier in the year, "Detroit is the second most dangerous team amongst the Western Conference pool of contenders, with Chicago obviously taking the crown in that regard. Niklas Lidstrom may have a receding hairline but is still the best shutdown defenseman in the league today, Pavel Datsyuk makes your deity of choice green with envy, and Henrik Zetterberg is always available to pick your pocket like Winona Ryder on a Tuesday afternoon at the mall."

So that's the first thing that jumps out at me.

The second, and somewhat cathartic statistic in an ultimately sadistic sort of way, is the fact that San Jose has had some trouble keeping pucks out of the net against playoff teams. They are last amongst this sample, finding close company with Nashville, Colorado, and Los Angeles, who are all over the 2.80 GA/G mark as well.

As the majority of Fear The Fin readers are well aware of, TCY and I have been big proponents of upgrading our defense throughout the course of the season. I think this validates our qualitative observations to some degree (in regards to the usual retort being "but we're fifth in the league in goals against!"), and while I don't necessarily fault Doug Wilson for holding off on making a move at the deadline due to the cap space he had to work with*, it is going to be an area of concern both down the stretch and into the playoffs. Evgeni Nabokov has masked a lot of the defensive issues that have plagued the unit since the outset of the season, and to ask him to continue carrying the team when he is well on his way to the 70+ start range seems rather bold. His .888 SV% since the Olympic break (.903 before last night's loss to Dallas) has done little to assuage these concerns.

*Yes, I understand that Wilson was the one who put himself in that salary situation, but it's hard for me to argue that he is ultimately responsible for the success of the team in this area. He definitely has his faults, specifically in the area of being proficient at making a great trade vs. being rather subpar in re-signing players to reasonable contracts, but at this point it is all on the players and coaching staff. The regular season record speaks for itself when it comes to DW. Playoffs, and performance against playoff teams, are a player problem. Nothing Wilson has done can change that.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic's return from a knee injury should definitely help in this area. He's an essential player to this team, and hopefully will not be burdened with decreased mobility when he returns. Mobility is one of the biggest assets to his game considering he doesn't play with much of a physical edge, and while McLellan has handled injuries well this season, sticking to that approach wholeheartedly with Vlasic, you never know with a knee. It's a wildcard.

One last note before I transition into another approach to these reconstructed standings-- I understand that there a lot of relevant links nestled into this article, and I fully encourage you to click on all of them considering they accentuate the points I am trying to make. But if you do one thing today, read this article from March of last season, this one from December, and the comments in a post entitled "How the Sharks have spent the post-Olympic break", published earlier this week on Fear The Fin.

Similar in almost all respects. No matter how much things change, they always do seem to stay the same.

All this being said there are some positives, or at the very least, aspects within these numbers that should offer some modicum of comfort.

San Jose's goal differential is at the break even point, good for fourth amongst these teams. While that is not necessarily where the coaching staff would like things to be against top-tier opponents, it shows that they generally have played these teams tight, 7-2 shellacking at the hands of Chicago notwithstanding.

They also find themselves tied for third in terms of goals scored, which has also been a concern throughout the year. For the most part San Jose has shown they can score in bunches when they have the motivation to do so, and with secondary scorers to boot-- having those bottom nine guys chip in is probably the second biggest thing during the postseason behind Nabokov (and consequently, the defense). It is a good trend, albeit one that has been washed out by some questionable decision-making with the puck in the defensive end. Sure, they may have benefited from some gaudy offensive numbers against Calgary (9-1) and Nashville (8-5), but that's largely true for every team in this sample.

Furthermore, San Jose is 6-4 since January against playoff teams. There has been improvement, however slight, and building on that momentum will be essential during these final four weeks of the regular season.

The sky probably isn't falling-- that has never been the purpose of any article I have ever written, because to truly predict the outcome of the playoffs requires some pretty nasty hallucinogens and one helluva accurate crystal ball courtesy of Miss Cleo. There is nothing in here that states San Jose is incapable of making a deep playoff run; however, this indicates to me that there are some notable maladies that plague the club on a broad level when it comes to performing against playoff teams, which in turn makes it seem as if they will be less likely to make a deep playoff run.

There is a definite distinction there.

Whether it is frustrating turnovers at the bluelines, botched breakouts, a lack of urgency for sixty minutes, or whatever other option you choose to hang your hat on (and there a fair amount of rungs available right now), I don't think the Sharks have exactly been the world beaters that their official record may indicate.

It's all relative to expectations. A team struggling to make the playoffs would kill for San Jose's totals on this chart, while a potential number one seed in West should be disappointed in what they have turned in thus far. The regular season Sharks are the heroes that San Jose deserves, but are not the ones we need right now. We need some dark knights.

Of course nothing is set in stone, and a 10-12 record is no exception. San Jose has eight games remaining against these potential playoff opponents, and that all begins tomorrow with a nasty back to back on the road against Vancouver and Calgary. The following weekend also features another back to back, this time featuring Vancouver and Colorado in the cozy confines of HP Pavilion.

San Jose then plays Colorado, Calgary, Vancouver, and Phoenix during the last week of the regular season. All in a row.

These are huge games, defining ones, and will be a better indicator of what to expect during The Months That Shall Not Be Named than anything else that has come before.

Cue John Williams and ready the superlatives folks. It's going to be a wild ride.

Go Sharks.

Listless effort leads to worst game of the season, Sharks look for answers.

2010-03-17T03:25:59Z

More photos » Mike Fuentes - AP

Browse more photos »

Hard to explain this one.

It's difficult to write wrap-ups after losses, but even tougher to write them during a streak of losses. I really didn't want to have to write an article with this tone tonight, especially when playing the Stars.

I actually thought the Sharks were going to control this game after watching the first few minutes of the first. They were strong on the forecheck, were generating chances, and had a good amount of flow to the offensive game.

And then the penalties, oh, the penalties.

Setoguchi's double minor was understandable, as he prevented an almost sure goal off the stick of Loui Eriksson. However, as the period wore on, and more Sharks went to the box, it became apparent that the momentum that the Sharks generated early in the period was going to be wasted.

Although the Sharks were on the kill for a good chunk of the first, they still managed to outshoot the Stars 13-11 during the period and escaped down only a goal. I expected the Sharks to come out hungry in the second, but instead the defense played a porous game and the forwards did little to help the situation, leading to three straight Dallas tallies.

The Sharks made a game of it in the third with two quickies by Boyle and Setoguchi, but the Stars quickly undid the good work with two shorthanded goals on Thomas Griess, who replaced Nabokov after the fourth goal in the second. After that, the game was pretty much over, short two more Dallas goals. The 8 goals allowed are the most the Sharks have given up this year, one more than the seven against Chicago early in the season.

I thought the team as a whole played a very poor game, with only a few players impressing me at any point. Boyle was giving it his all while the game was still close (pumping 8 pucks on net), and I liked the play of the third line with McGinn on the wing, especially early in the game. Other than that, though, it was a game rife with turnovers, weak plays in all zones, and an overall laxidasical effort.

Boyle came down hard on his teammates after the loss to Anaheim, and deservedly so. Including tonight, the Sharks have allowed the first goal in 11 of their last 12 games. That's a telling stat.

How will the Sharks recover? Well, they need better play from Nabokov. That's the primary concern. His save percentage has taken a tumble in the last few weeks, and tonight was no help. The defense around him has to be better as well, and anyone who thinks that Vlasic isn't missed is crazy.

The offense, although they managed 46 shots on Lehtonen, were inconsistent on the forecheck and turned the puck over consistently. The forwards need to simplify their game in order to generate opportunities, and must go after second chances and rebounds furiously.

I would not want to be in the Sharks dressing room tonight, and I doubt the players want to be there, either. Instead of taking advantage of a weak opponent, they dropped their worst game of the year after an effortless tilt versus Anaheim on Sunday.

Planks article tomorrow will cover many of the feelings we share about the Sharks current stretch of play. With Phoenix's recent hot play, a top three seed is no guarantee, especially if the Sharks continue this f ree fall. These next 13 games are going to be tough for Doug Wilson, Todd McLellan, and the Sharks team leadership. I would be surprised if Wilson didn't make a few tweaks to the roster, perhaps bringing up some players to challenge the Sharks current group for ice time. And although I don't pay much attention to lip service, I want to see quotes after tonight's game, especially from McLellan, Boyle and others.

They should be pissed, because I sure am.

Go Sharks.

Just sayin'

2010-03-17T03:36:01Z

Does San Jose actually give up the division lead when all is said and done? Hard to say definitively, but I don't think they will. Phoenix has been on a six game tear and San Jose struggled pretty extensively since the Olympics. Common knowledge probably states the Coyotes cool off a bit and the Sharks regain their form.

And for what it's worth, San Jose holds the head to head tiebreaker as of this posting, with wins being equal.

As bad as the game was tonight, this is a good thing for the Sharks. They need a kick right in the rear, and boy did they ever get one tonight. It is one of the last wake up calls the team will get before Chicken Little officially opens up shop smack dab in the center of HP Pavilion.

Big time post coming tomorrow morning, big time back to back against Calgary and Vancouver on Thursday and Friday.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Gameday: 129 Days Without a Shutout

2010-03-16T10:00:20Z

	@ 5:30 PST
43-15-10, 96 points		29-26-13, 71 points
1st in Western Conference		12th in Western Conference

Television	CSN-CA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Defending Big DRazor With An Edge

From one big rival to another, as the Sharks continue their traditional March road trip.

As we take a look at the NHL standings, the Stars are pretty much in the same position as the Ducks are at this point of the season. The playoffs hopes are all but lost, especially after the Olympic break as Dallas went through a dismal 1-5-1 stretch, with their only win coming in a skills competition, even if against Washington. While last year the Stars fans could have comforted themselves with a thought that it was the injuries that ruined their season, this year there is no excuse-- most of their best players have stayed healthy throughout the season. It is a mediocre defense (46 more goals allowed than the Sharks and only one d-man with more than 15 points on the season), inconsistent goaltending from Marty Turco, and a hideous special teams numbers (20th PP unit in the league and 27th PK unit) that led to a largely underwhelming season by what used to be one of the better NHL franchiaes. Actually, could it be the coaching?

As this season progresses and I see these kinds of results from the Stars, I keep wondering how will the club's ownership, management and fans feel when Dave Tippett gets Jack Adams Award this June?

But let's not concern ourselves with the Stars. Needless to say, with recent lackluster performances, and strong words of general dissatisfaction from Todd McLellan and Dan Boyle, the Sharks must take two points tonight.

What matters even more is what we'll actually see on the ice. We've already touched upon the general lack of consistent scoring and a wild line shuffling of forwards that McLellan is playing with, but let's touch upon another concerning trend that's been slowly emerging over the past few weeks.

It's now been 129 days since the Sharks defense posted a shutout. Shutout stat is one those stats that does not always paint a clear picture by itself - there is a big difference between a shutout that was recorded on a night defense allowed just 18 shots on goal versus the night the defense allowed 47. While it is concerning that Nabokov, using Russian hockey terminology, has not held his goal dry for this long, in that same time span he had an impressive 11 games when he only allowed one goal. For comparison, Ilya Bryzgalov, who currently leads the league with 8 shutouts and is likely the only candidate that may upset Ryan Miller's Vezina award, has had 5 SOs since November 7, and only 4 games where he allowed just one goal.

In reality, too many factors play into a typical shutout. Sharks play risky type of hockey with defensemen often driving to the net, which often results in too many odd men rushes. Some of these rare goals are scored at the start of the game, while others come from penalties, which the Sharks, no 8 most penalized team in the league (in terms of number of penalties taken), tend to take rather easily these days. The Sharks also allow more shots on average than 21 other NHL teams.

At some point this streak of allowing goals (currently sitting at 50-games mark) will end for the Sharks. But until this happens, it is one more area that we're scratching our heads about as regular season is winding down.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1 (with goals by Heatley, Clowe and Boyle), with the only Stars' goals coming in the first 90 seconds of the game to kill yet another potential SO ("a rusk", as the term goes in Russian) for Nabokov .

How the Sharks have spent the post-Olympic break

2010-03-15T11:30:37Z

More photos » Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Captain Comeback has hid some pretty porous team-wide numbers for San Jose since the Olympic break.

And it's likely going to start catching up to them. In fact, it probably already has.

Since the NHL resumed play on March 1st the San Jose Sharks have had six games to work out any outstanding issues in preparation for a postseason run-- and while they have gone 3-2-1 in that time span, an admittedly sufficient record at face value, the Sharks have not made it easy on themselves. Nor have they looked especially good in the process.

The "sixty minute effort" talking point that has followed this team for awhile now is applicable here, no matter how welcoming it may be to cast aside as a cheap blanket statement better suited for the likes of Couch Potato Paul and his esteemed associate High Chair Harry. It is a tired line that has unfortunately grown into the everyday verbiage of Sharks fans when discussing the team, one that is usually best served with qualitative analysis of individual players garnished with a broad look at what this means in the context of the season; if one wishes to be considered a reliable source of discussion, that is.

At this point however, I don't think you can label any one individual effort that has brought about the current slide, nor can you really label it a slide per se-- the scoreboard reads 7 points since the Olympics, and even if San Jose has accomplished that mark with some pretty lofty comebacks, there is a silver lining in knowing that they are able to stage these comebacks of epic proportions.

Exciting, yes. They haven't packed up shop and mailed it in after going down early. This has been another criticism of the organization over the years, a black mark that has been addressed on some level during victories against Montreal and Nashville.

But sustainable over the course of the long run? Sustainable during the playoffs when teams will be better and goals much more monumental?

No.

Although it's pretty apparent what has befallen the Sharks these last six games, it never hurts to provide something in visual form. The first image are scoring occurrences throughout this time frame. Opponents goals are red, Sharks goals are blue; click to enlarge if you want to see the time stamps and periods those goals were scored in:

I doubt I need to reiterate how important scoring first is to winning hockey games, but here's some context-- San Jose has a 77.4% winning percentage when scoring first this season, compared to a 51.4% winning percentage when giving up the first goal. Coincidentally, the Sharks are actually 2nd in the league in terms of being able to come back when trailing initially-- silver lining again, but obviously not a situation they wish to find themselves in on the majority of nights.

Here is how the time spent tied/trailing/leading breakdown has gone:

Time spent in Game Situations

Game	Tied	Trail by 1	trail by 2+	LEad by 1	Lead By 2+
vs. NJD	31:13	9:03	19:44	0:00	0:00
vs. MON	14:06	40:59	0:00	4:55	0:00
vs. CBJ	48:27	6:53	0:00	4:40	0:00
vs. NSH	32:04	12:08	8:18	5:04	2:26
vs. FLO	23:17	0:00	0:00	36:12	3:17
@ ANA	3:27	4:13	52:20	0:00	0:00
TOTAL	152:34	73:16	80:22	50:51	5:43

Again, it's pretty apparent how San Jose has managed to win games-- scoring in droves, specifically in the third period. The only lengthy period of time the Sharks have held the lead was against Florida on Saturday, which ended with an overtime loss after failing to find any form of jump during the final two periods.

Overall, the Sharks have spent 42.06% of their game time tied, 42.35% down by at least a goal, and 15.59% with the lead.

They have three first period goals, two second period goals, and an astounding fifteen tallies in the third period.

Blaming any one player for this would be a foolish endeavor; yes Nabokov has let in some softies lately and deserves a portion of the pie, but there is so much pie to go around it really doesn't matter. It is truly a team-wide malady that needs be corrected tomorrow, because as we mentioned late last week, this is a big stretch for San Jose in terms of potential playoff teams who are fighting for their lives. And thus far it hasn't been pretty.

Of course there is still ample time to improve before the playoffs. They are still a month away, and a lot of games remain to correct these mistakes before they reach critical mass. Marc-Edouard Vlasic will be returning before the conclusion of the road trip, and getting him back will give San Jose a top-six worth writing about-- when Rob Blake is seeing 23:55 of ice time and Dan Boyle is out there for 24:03 despite missing half of the first period due to a game misconduct penalty, well, there is bound to be some issues.

However, things need to improve sooner rather than later. Another string of post office performances to round out the week and you had better bet ol' Chicken Little will be making the rounds rather frequently.

Slightly ahead of schedule.

Go Sharks.

The Experiment of Line Shuffling Fails, as Sharks Get Stopped in Anaheim

2010-03-15T03:27:47Z

More photos » Christine Cotter - AP

4 days ago: Anaheim Ducks' Bobby Ryan, front, and San Jose Sharks' Dan Boyle are escorted to the penalty box in the first period of an NHL hockey game in Anaheim, Calif., on Sunday, March, 14, 2010. (AP Photo/Christine Cotter)

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Another night, another loss, as the Sharks fail to sweep the Ducks in regular season and lose 2-4 in Anaheim.

Back in October when the Sharks struggled to find their game at the start to their season, I actually welcomed the idea that the team will not run the table for another year and may have to battle hard to earn a good seed in the playoffs. But once the HTML line was put together, the team started putting one winning streak after another. Before we knew it, the Sharks were once again at the top of the Western Conference schedule with a comfortable position going into March-April.

In this position, the points now start to matter less and at times we see the players put questionable effort on the ice. To battle this, we are starting to see these kinds of ideas coming out of McLellan's mouth as team is starting 6-game road trip:

"We’ll be able to play some people in different situations than we have been. You might see the big guys back together some night, you might see some lines that are different just in case we need it later on."

We sure saw plenty of that tonight. On one shift we saw HTML line together. On another Thornton was skating next to McGinn and Setoguchi (which is how the first goal was scored). Then all of a sudden we saw Heatley skating next to Clowe and Mitchell and on and on this chess game went.

Before we discuss how it worked out , we should mention why McLellan was shuffling his forwards this way - the team was once again half asleep, especially for the first 40 minutes of the game. The first period was especially disturbing, as the lack of effort and focus cost the Sharks three unanswered goals. Not much have changed in the second period either, so the coaches had no other choice but to try to jump start the team by consantly rotating forward combinations.

Did it work? Looking at the scoreboard, we can see that it did not.

Some forwards who are usually dangerous looked lost playing next to unfamiliar forwards (such as Heatley, who was the worst of them all tonight finishing the night with zero points and -3 rating) , while others were invisible (such as Malhotra, who did not manage to get a single shot on the net, or Marleau who only had one shot in almost 22 minutes of play).

Thanks to the magic of this season happening in the Olympic year, Sharks will play nine more games in the next 15 days, giving the coaches plenty of time to wake this team up or at least settle on the lines that work for more than a few shifts a game.

But shuffling the lines may not be the only solution the Sharks are looking for, as the the struggle to put a good three periods of hockey in one game continues.

Sharks Gameday: Drive Home The Dagger

2010-03-14T10:30:39Z

	@ 5:00 PST
43-14-10, 96 points		30-29-8, 68 points
1st in Western Conference		13th in Western Conference

Television	CSN-CA
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Anaheim CallingBattle of California

Following a porous end to the game yesterday against the Florida Panthers, which saw one of the most lifeless forty minute performances San Jose has turned in all year, the Sharks get a chance to get back on the horse and do something special today.

Bury the Ducks playoff hopes.

Make no mistake-- Anaheim's season is likely over already, with Detroit and Calgary making a strong push towards the final two spots in the West. But for an organization (San Jose that is) that was embarrassed last season by Anaheim in the playoffs, tonight deserves some recognition. There is an opportunity to go undefeated against the Ducks since the April Aspyhxiation*, and truly make a stamp on the season. It is one of those moments that will stick with me for a long time if it occurs, no matter how insignificant it may be in the standings column.

*Disclosure: I hate the "choke" label as much as the next guy, but the alliteration there was too much fun to pass up.

At any rate, daylight savings really threw a wrench in my gameday plans today, and with final exams approaching, I don't have enough time to wax poetic as I would like. If you're in the mood for some reading material however, this article from earlier in the year is a great one. If I hadn't written it then I would have written it today, and I think it holds up quite well-- hell, it will likely be relevant even two years from now when it comes to Anaheim.

Also, big ups to Ryane Clowe for being just about the only Shark out there yesterday who looked like he had a pulse. I have definitely extended a fair share of complaints his way throughout the season, and it's only right to acknowledge when he has a great game. Keep it up #29.

Prediction: Sharks win 4-2. Goals by Marleau, Setoguchi, Pavelski, and Thornton. The big guns show up and drive a stake through the heart of a past playoff ghost.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Gameday: Is Tomas Vokoun criminally underrated?

2010-03-13T05:39:08Z

	@ 1:00 PM PST
27-29-10, 64 points		43-14-9, 95 points
12th in Eastern Conference		1st in Western Conference

Television	CSN-CA+
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	Litter Box Cats

Back by popular demand, it's the obligatory "Goaltender with a question mark in the headline" article that has been making the rounds on Fear The Fin this week. On the docket today is one of the elite goaltenders in the NHL, Tomas Vokoun, who will face off against the Sharks today.

Vokoun has played for two franchises during the course of his 11 year professional career. These franchises, the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers, have had a history of attendance issues and been largely ignored by the mainstream media. This is not to say that they are franchises that should be relocated to Winnipeg at the drop of the hat-- after all, Florida looks to be locked into Sunrise for the foreseeable future, and reports out of Nashville indicate the team will be there for at least two more seasons. Both organizations have done a fine job of expanding their fanbase and generating interest in their respective clubs despite cries from some in the Canadian media for relocation.

However, this is to say that Vokoun has not had the opportunity to prove himself in a premier hockey market that would elevate his presence, despite being the most consistent and successful goaltenders since the NHL lockout:

SV% Leaders Since Lockout (min. 150 GP)

RNK	Player	GP	SA	SV	SV%	SO	SA/60
1	T. Vokoun	288	9184	8473	.923	26	32.74
2	N. Backstrom	220	6069	5576	.919	19	28.75
3	R. Luongo	334	9784	8977	.918	28	30.26
4	T. Thomas	254	7750	7115	.918	16	31.68
6	M. Brodeur	321	8869	8127	.916	33	27.83
7	R. Miller	302	8924	8171	.916	16	30.09
10	M. Kiprusoff	359	10066	9201	.914	27	28.62

This is while playing behind some of the worst defenses in terms of SA/60 over the course of this five season data range.

And yet he hasn't ever won a Vezina Trophy; never even been nominated for one in fact. His worst season was a .919 outing in 2005-2006, and another "low" of .919 in 2007-2008. A lot of this has to do with season samples of course-- Vokoun has been in the top five amongst goaltenders 80% of the time, but never cracked the top three until last year, where he was second behind Tim Thomas.

As it turns out, Vokoun is also second this season with a .930, a shade behind Ryan Miller. Both goaltenders have had great seasons, with Miller the front-runner due to his play at the Olympics and the fact that Buffalo is likely headed to the postseason. Florida will probably miss the playoffs for the ninth straight season.

However, if both goaltenders continue to perform at their current pace, it's hard to state that one is superior to the other when using the definition of the Vezina Trophy-- "an annual award given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position":

Miller vs. Vokoun (09-10)

RNK	Player	GP	SA	SV	SV%	SO	SA/60
1	R. Miller	56	1721	1602	.931	5	31.08
2	T. Vokoun	55	1833	1704	.930	7	33.59

As good of a season Sharks MVP Evgeni Nabokov is having this season, the final vote should likely come down to Vokoun and Miller, with a slew of other contenders like Craig Andersen, the aforementioned Evgeni Nabokov, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Miika Kiprusoff (in that order for me) receiving tallies.

And even if Vokoun doesn't manage to beat out Miller, it would be a shame if the 30 General Managers leave him out of the conversation again. He's a top three candidate for certain, and at some point, deserves to be a finalist for an award that measures how good a goaltender is, and not necessarily how good the team in front of him can be.

So is Vokoun the best goaltender in the world right now? That's hard to say-- you can make a strong case for both Ryan Miller and Roberto Luongo, and I wouldn't raise any objections; it's a subjective line in the sand that admittedly is best achieved by throwing statistics out of the window, and the fact that Vokoun has only made one playoff appearance in his career (with another being shortened by injury) could be used as a point of reference. But if I'm a general manager looking to win right now, today, you'd have a hard time convincing me that Vokoun shouldn't be between the pipes.

Thankfully, we only see him once a season. Something tells me last night's comeback wouldn't have been quite so sweet if Nashville had held on to him in 2007.

Prediction: Sharks win 7-0. Vokoun has the worst game of his career and is pulled in the first period, while CTGray bestows yet another "Bringer of Doom" Award in all it's glory.

Go Sharks.

Sharks score six goals in the third, Pavelski soaks panties faster than a firehose

2010-03-12T06:48:24Z

More photos » Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Shades of '08.

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It was one of those nights that make you question your sexuality.

Heavily outplayed from the outset of the game the San Jose Sharks kept up their comeback ways, roaring back in the third period to defeat the Nashville Predators. Joe Pavelski was the man of the hour, notching four points in the final frame to extend the winning streak to three.

With the game tied at four, Manny Malhotra made a great play to keep the puck deep, sealing off the boards as Nashville attempted to clear out of the zone. The puck bounced to Joe Pavelski at the bottom of the circle, and in a move that brought back lucid memories of his overtime goal against Dallas two years ago, Pavelski took the puck across the zone, waited out Dan Ellis, and rifled the puck gloveside high to put the Sharks up 5-4.

Following a JP Dumont tally that tied the score at five, Scott Nichol made a nice breakout pass to Pavelski, who entered the zone on the rush. Ryan Suter made a good play to pressure him above the circles, but one titillating spin move from the depths of hell later, Ellis was a five hole late and a few bucks short. That shot, a lock to be played on the HP Pavilion Jumbotron for years to come, proved to be the game winner.

Patrick Marleau also scored his fortieth goal in the season, the first time he has done so in his career. He joins Owen Nolan (44, 1999-2000) and Jonathan Cheechoo (56, 2005-2006) as the only San Jose Sharks to reach that milestone in franchise history.

Despite the fireworks to end the third however, make no mistake-- San Jose played a fairly porous game during the first forty minutes. In the middle of the broadcast, Randy and Drew talked about a new television series on HBO entitled The Pacific. It's from Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks, the same braintrust that created the nothing short of amazing Band of Brothers which aired in 2001.

San Jose, meet Okinawa. Okinawa, San Jose.

The first period was probably the worst first opening twenty minutes the Sharks have played all season, with the speedy Nashville forward group getting to loose pucks and hemming the Sharks into their own zone. It was the story of the night (for the first forty at least), and the story of the season really-- as I mentioned before Columbus and TCY mentioned before tonight, the Sharks consistently struggle against teams who can consistently apply pressure to their defenseman by physically wearing them down over sixty minutes. Nashville won battles all night with an aggressive 3-2 forecheck, and unless the San Jose defenseman can improve making a first pass out of the zone, those struggles will continue.

The Predators moved the puck extremely well at the blueline, and were teeing off on Nabokov all night. It seemed as if a shift wouldn't go by when a Shark forward would pressure the defenseman and you would wait for him to send it deep to re-start the cycle-- instead, Nashville would send a crisp and quick pass across the zone to a waiting defenseman who would take advantage of the bodies in front of Nabokov and get a shot through traffic.

Ryane Clowe goes through stretches where he's just a non-factor. Well he's in the midst of one of those stretches right now, and will need to elevate his play in the coming weeks as San Jose makes their way towards April.

That being said, the Sharks have been wearing their Captain Comeback underpants religiously since the Olympic break. And my oh my did they have them on tonight.

Joe Thornton scored his 100th career power play goal, driving to the net from the sideboards and showing off some beautiful hands to pull a rebound to the backhand and elevate it above Ellis. Jay Leach also scored his first career goal, but it was an empty netter. We'll still give it to him.

Douglas Murray also left the game in the middle of the second period, with what appeared to be an injury from taking a slap shot off his leg.

It wasn't pretty, and it wasn't what the coaching staff had in mind. But at the end of the day it's another two points in the bag for San Jose, and yet another heart-attack inducing finish from a team who has made a habit of the big comeback.

Go Sharks.

Sharks Gameday: Pick your Poison

2010-03-11T11:00:27Z

	@ 7:30 PM PST
36-25-5, 77 points		42-14-9, 93 points
7th in Western Conference		1st in Western Conference

Television	NHLN-CA, CSN-CA+
Radio	98.5 KFOX, Sjsharks.com
Antagonists	On The Forecheck

As Plank explored yesterday, this 8 day stretch is going to be difficult. Three of the Sharks next six games are against playoff teams, and four are against teams which are currently fighting for their playoff lives.

The first of these games comes against a team that has given the Sharks relative headaches all year. Not migraines, but definitely a few Tylenol worth. The Nashville Predators have played some hotly contested games against San Jose so far this season, staring with a 4-3 squeaker in San Jose where the Sharks came out on top. Interestingly enough, the next two games against the Predators were decided by a 4-3 score as well; Nashville won at home on November 10th, followed by a San Jose Sharks win in Nashville on February 6th. So, although the Sharks have a 2-1-0 record against the Predators this season, they've only outscored them 11-10.

Why have the Predators given the Sharks so much trouble? Well, they fit the bill of the type of team that gives Sharks problems. They have a solid defensive unit, an industrious group of forwards, and a forecheck that disrupts the Sharks ability to move the puck up on the rush. Other teams like the Predators? Think Columbus, Phoenix, and St. Louis. While these are teams the Sharks should beat consistently, their style of play usually results in a closer game than expected.

Still, the Predators remain my preferred first round opponent.

According to Sports Club Stats, the Predators have a 30% and 21% chance of finishing in the seventh or eighth seed, respectively. The Sharks (now a 100% lock to make the playoffs, woot!), have a 62% chance of finishing first overall and a 35% chance of finishing second. That results in a 15.5% chance of facing the Predators as the top seed, or a 10.5% chance of facing them if Chicago overtakes San Jose in points. So, we're looking at one in four odds of facing Nashville in the first round. (Odds calculated under the assumption that the events are independent of each other)

Don't get me wrong, Nashville is a solid squad with some stars on defense. Shea Weber is one of the best blue liners in the league (although he might not play tonight), and he and Ryan Suter make up one of the most lethal pairings in the NHL. Dan Hamhuis, a guy who was pursued heavily at the trade deadline, headlines the remaining corps that now includes deadline acquisition Denis Grebeshkov (who also won't be playing, as he's out until mid-March). When healthy, they're scary on the back end.

However, scoring remains somewhat of an issue for the Predators, who by most accounts have a weak offensive crop of forwards. Martin Erat leads the team in points with 41, Patrick Hornqvist has a team high 23 goals, while Ryan Suter and Steve Sullivan share the assist lead with 27. Stalwart Jason Arnot has chipped in 39 points, and NHL surprise Marcel Goc (who I wanted to resign, by the way) has matched his career high of 22 points. Tip toeing the line between confident and total douche, I'm going to quote myself:

All in all, I'm not ready to give up on Goc. I think he's a good player. He might never put up the offensive numbers that a top six forward would, but that's not what I'm looking for. I want a solid, two way player who chips in some offense here and there. 11 points isn't nearly enough, but I think we can expect good things from Gocthis year. With consistent line mates, a 30 point season isn't out of the question. It's time for him to live up to the hype.

Although Goc and others have exceeded expectations, the numbers behind the Predators' don't look great. Even with Pekka Rinne (22-13-8, 2.79 GAA, .901 SV%), Dan Ellis (14-12-3 2.59 GAA, .913 SV%) and the defensive unit playing well for a Nashville team many thought would miss the playoffs, the Predators are 20th in goals allowed per game. In fact, they're giving up more goals per game (2.80) than they score (2.71). With the roster they've assembled, you'd think those stats would be the other way around.

The Sharks on the other hand, with all the percieved defensive issues, allow the fewest goals per game of any team: 2.37. As far as offense goes, San Jose sits in fourth (3.17).

Although I fully expect a close game tonight, the Predators just don't match up well against the Sharks in the playoffs. Both Rinne and Ellis are capable of stealing a game, but I doubt either could best a San Jose Sharks offense that sits among the league's elite. The lack of scoring won't do Nashville any favors either, especially if Nabokov plays like the NHL version, and not the Olympic version.

All in all, though, I just wrote the above on a 1/4 chance that it comes to fruition. Here's hoping it does.

Prediction: Sharks win 4-3. It was too easy. Goals by McGinn, Marleau and Pavelski (x2). Goc nets a hat trick and I cry myself to sleep.

Go Sharks.

Note: Nichol in, Vesce out per WTC

Dark days? What do you know about dark days?

2010-03-11T05:06:19Z

These were the darkest days I have ever known.

Road trip photos

2010-03-11T02:46:36Z

Road trip photos

Plank wanted me to do a full front page post, but since my life's been busy as hell, this (very belated) fanshot will have to do. Toronto, Nashville, and Dallas are all in there - Hockey Hall of Fame pics to come soon.

Also, if anyone's going to the Avs game in Denver on April 4th, hit me up - I'll be there, en route to Jamaica (seriously).

Big Week Ahead!

2010-03-10T06:17:06Z

Unrelated.

View full size photo »

And so it begins.

The faces of hockey fans across the country have begun to change. Sunken eye sockets pay homage to Trevor Reznik, filled with pain and exhaustion-- others glow like the urine of a cow residing in Chernobyl, full of hope and faith.

Like a Duraflame log, we crackle with excitement. Like a dog's log, others crumble with the stink of a lost season.

But never mind those weary souls. This next week is a huge one for San Jose, filled with opponents who are in the midst of fighting for a postseason berth in the ever-tight Western Conference. It's a time to establish some momentum heading into The Months That Shall Not Be Named, as well as send some messages in the event that the Sharks do meet one of these squads in April.

Desperation. It's a clever word, one used rather ambiguously by sports broadcasters and coaching staff to explain victories at this time of year. Team X was desperate and therefore won the game. Does this hold weight? Maybe, maybe not. But no matter where you end up on the totem pole of attributing results to emotional intangibles, the fact remains that the next nine days are booked with Western Conference teams who are on the bubble in one form or another. And bubble boys usually get pissed when you come into their house and try to dictate how the game will be played.

For the record, it's Moops.

Nashville at home tomorrow, a throwaway in terms of relative importance against Florida on Saturday. The Preds have one of the better bluelines and creepier coaches in the West, so a tight-checking affair will likely be on the docket. They have managed to hold on to a bottom seed for awhile now, and will be looking to gain some breathing room when the pressure really starts to crank up two weeks from now.

Then the Sharks hit a nice lil' roadie, four games against four teams that need points. Anaheim and Dallas have struggled since the Olympics ended and have begun to fall out of striking distance of the top eight-- while the game against San Jose may not effectively put their seasons in the morgue, it's at the point where it will put them on some very serious life support. Huge games for both clubs, even if they manage to reel off a set of wins until then.

If San Jose takes two points against Anaheim on Sunday, they will have won every single game against the Ducks this year. While this may not be an effective remedy to forget what happened in April of 2009 ("That's what crack pipes are for Jimmy"), it would go a long way towards helping me stop throwing feces filled balloons into the street from my roof. It's a win-win for everyone, really.

Following the division rivals, San Jose tees off against Calgary and Vancouver. The Flames are in the eight seed by a point right now, while the Canucks are battling Colorado for the Northwest title. Again, same situation. Desperate teams looking for any standings points they can get.

Now this isn't the only big stretch San Jose is going to undergo until April-- there are a lot of potential Western Conference playoff teams still left on the schedule. However, with the Sharks currently sporting a spiffy pair of Captain Comeback underpants, it will be a good test to see if they can start making some noise early in the first period and establish a rhythm through sixty minutes.

Furthermore, as the games left to be played begin to dwindle down, the playoff picture will become much clearer-- right now, multiple teams are left with varying chances of breaking into the playoffs, and that is the silver lining for San Jose. Each opposing team is going to be functioning at their full potential. There should be no reason that the Sharks catch one of them sleepwalking through a tilt.

As always, Sports Club Stats is a great resource at this time of year for checking up on who might end up where.

Man your battlestations bitches-- the playoff push is on.

Go Sharks.

Poll

What is the biggest game the Sharks will play during the course of these next nine days in terms of playoff importance?

Will Evgeni Nabokov Save or Condemn the Sharks?

2010-03-09T18:00:27Z

More photos » Paul Sakuma - AP

Browse more photos »

Yesterday Plank presented us with a statistical breakdown of Nabby's career with San Jose Sharks. In his article he argued that perhaps Evgeni Nabokov is getting too many starts this season which may negatively impact his post season form. Not only that, in his follow up piece Plank argued that Nabokov actually was not that much better than his backups over the course of his stint with the Sharks, and that should impact his upcoming contract negotiations this summer. Hockey of course is not a game of numbers, but the identified patterns can still leave one wondering about whether we should be excited or depressed about the approaching playoffs. Today we'll discuss Nabokov one more time, but from a slightly different perspective.

Let's go back a couple of weeks ago, when Team Russia was facing Team Canada in the quarter-final game of the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Among other things, that game was supposed to give us a preview of what to expect from Nabby in this post season. I do not need to remind you how it all ended, but we can all agree that it left more questions than answers about what to expect from Nabby this spring. The Hockey News even claim the Sharks are lacking clutch goaltending, as they approach playoffs.

Is there any hope for the Sharks in the coming weeks between the pipes, as the regular season is drawing to an end? Or should the Sharks fans not set their expectations too high, remembering the heartbreaks of the past few years? In my view, we do have a hope, based on Nabby's three historical performances.

1. Nabokov's Career with Dynamo Moscow. Before he moved to the States Nabokov made his name as a 20 year old playing for the best Russian hockey club at the time Dynamo Moscow (a club that over the past couple of decades produced such hockey talents as Alexei Yashin, Alexei Zhamnov, Sergei Gonchar, Maxim Afinogenov, Pavel Datsyuk and Alex Ovechkin - just to name a few). Nabokov's stats for Dynamo were more then respectable - in 90 regular season games spanned over three seasons he posted 2.01 GAA (with 7 SOs), and in 25 playoff games he posted 2.15 GAA. A less known fact is that Nabby won MHL Cup with Dynamo in 1995 and was named the most valuable player of the tournament (an equivalent of NHL's Conn Smythe trophy). I watched two of the final games of that series against Lada in person, and Nabokov was playing as good as I've ever seen him play during his long hockey career, including posting a shutout in the Game 5 of the final (at the time, the final was played as a best of five format) as Dynamo sealed the win. A year later, Nabokov went on to win another MHL Cup, this time splitting the time between the pipes with another goaltender, but still only allowing 7 goals in 6 playoff games. He was a clutch player then, but this was 15 years ago, so let's cite more recent examples.

2. Nabokov's Performance in 2004 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This stage of Nabokov's career is more known to North American fans, as the Sharks reached the Western Conference finals and played in what is to this day their best post season in club history. Nabokov played one of the key roles in Sharks' success that spring, posting 3 SOs, to go along with an impressive 1.71 GAA and .935 SV%. The Sharks eventually fell to the Flames, as the only scored one goal in the final two games of the series, but when we think of that playoffs run, we first think about Nabby who took the team farther than they should have went that year, especially considering lack of all-star players on the roster.

3. Nabokov's Performance at the 2008 IIHF World Cup in Quebec. When we think of that season for the Sharks, we tend to only remember the never ending Game 6 against Dallas in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. But Brenden Morrow did not end that season for Nabokov, and a couple of days later Nabby found himself playing for Russia, and would allow just 9 goals in 5 games of that tournament. In the semi-final Nabokov shutout Team Finland and in the final Nabokov played good enough to stop Team Canada that was being led by Ryan Getzlaf, Dany Heatley and Rick Nash. The Russian media declared Nabby MVP of the tournament, as Russia won its first World Cup in 15 years. The coaches and the media all agreed that Russia would not have won that tournament, if he was not in goal.

While we can name just as many or more other seasons when Nabokov's post season performance fell below expectations, this is the case with any NHL goalie, and that's why we love the game. But these examples show that the assumption that Nabokov has never performed in a clutch situation is not only wrong, it is plainly ignorant.

Finally, we need to make one more final point whenever we talk about goalrending in this league. Let's go back to that fateful night two weeks ago in Vancouver. Was it really Nabokov's fault that from hockey perspective Russia had its worst Olympic tournament in 54 years of participating in the games? Legendary Russian defenseman Alexei Kasatovov said it best:

I think that Nabokov is rightfully a no. 1 goaltender for Team Russia and he deserved to start against Canada. I would not blame him for anything. He found himself under an avalanche. One can handle this kind of pressure for 10 minutes, but not for the full 60. Hockey is not an individual game for goaltenders - it is a game for the whole team.

How far will the Sharks advance in the approaching post season? While it is a fair question for Nabokov, it applies just as much to Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle, Rob Blake and Joe Pavelksi.

The Sharks will either live as a team, or die as a team.

Evgeni Nabokov: Good goaltender, but is he a product of the system?

2010-03-08T21:53:01Z

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Small sample size won't be a problem with this one.

As I mentioned earlier today, Evgeni Nabokov has been hands down the Team MVP this season despite seeing more starts than I am comfortable with. He's done an excellent job of keeping pucks out of the net, and is well on his way to a Vezina nomination-- a bid that will be much stronger than the case he made in 2007-2008.

Nabokov has been a mainstay in San Jose now for nearly a decade. From his rookie year where he won a Calder Trophy to 2009-2010 where he has masked a lot of the teams defensive issues, his acrobatic saves and ability to log large amounts of starts have made him a beloved figure amongst the fanbase.

During his time here, six other goaltenders have received starts between the pipes. In order of appearance, those goaltenders are Steve Shields, Miikka Kiprusoff, Vesa Toskala, Nolan Schaefer, Thomas Greiss, and Brian Boucher.

Since 2000-2001, here are the raw totals of Nabokov vs. his goaltending counterparts:

Evgeni Nabokov vs. Counterparts (00-01 to Present Day)

Year	GP	Win %	SA	GA	SV	GAA	SV%
Evgeni Nabokov	537	53.29	14,149	1235	12,914	2.37	91.2
Counterparts	232	52.86	5627	502	5125	2.43	91.0

Nearly identical.

With the exception of this year and 07-08 (where Brian Boucher was signed in late February due to Ron Wilson's refusal to start Thomas Greiss), Nabokov has not significantly distanced himself from his goaltending counterparts in terms of SV%. In fact, you could even make the case that Thomas Greiss has more than held his own when called upon for starts, even if Nabokov has clearly been the better goaltender. A .918 SV% from your backup is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Over this ten year period, Nabokov has seen a similar number of shots against per 60 minutes (27.20 for his backups, 27.18 for Nabokov); in other words, the notion that he may be seeing a higher shot volume because the team trusts him more does not hold weight. The defense has played the same in front of him as they have in front of any other goaltender that has worn teal.

Post-lockout, Nabokov has a .911 SV%. Amongst goaltenders who have seen at least 100 starts in this time span, he is currently 21st overall. No matter which way you cut it, that is not elite.

This is not to say that Nabokov is a bad goaltender; he is most definitely a good one, and this year has proven that. A Vezina Trophy is a distinct possibility, and he has been hands down the Team MVP in my book. The Sharks will need him at his best during the postseason because without him, they would not nearly have had the same amount of success they have achieved this year.

However, this is to say that Nabokov has not outplayed his backups over the course of his decade with the team. With a possible statistical outlier in SV% this season due to a contract year, increasing age, San Jose's tight salary cap constraints, as well as the fact that players in his situation (free agent coming off a career year in his mid-30's) generally look for a 3+ year deal to ensure one last big payday, it deserves to be said that GM Doug Wilson will have one big decision on his hands come July 1st. Especially considering Patrick Marleau is in the midst of a career year as well.

Thomas Greiss hasn't received enough starts this season, and this bothers me on two levels-- the first is that which I outlined earlier today, and the second is that he has effectively made it much more difficult to make a decision with Nabokov's impending free agency.

Nabokov is good. And he has been much, much more than good this season. But if I'm Doug Wilson, I tread very carefully when approaching contract negotiations next summer. Even with the UFA pool thinner than Ryan Getzlaf's hairline.

Here's to a hometown discount.

Go Sharks.

Is Evgeni Nabokov seeing too much time between the pipes?

2010-03-08T11:30:14Z

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San Jose Sharks goaltender Evgeni Nabokov has my vote for Team MVP this season.

Going into Thursday's game against Nashville, Nabokov will bring a .927 SV% to the table, good for third in the league amongst qualifying starters. He sees an average of 31.3 shots per night, or in other words, the Sharks defense is ranked 22nd in the league in terms of this metric. For all of the defensive issues and miscues that have plagued San Jose since the outset of this season, Nabokov has been steady and reliable; a presence between the pipes that has masked those lapses and kept the team in the business of winning hockey games. He may not be the sole reason the Sharks have been flirting with the top of the Western Conference standings all season, but he definitely is the biggest.

Which makes it all the more important that he is handled correctly by the coaching staff. And in my opinion, he hasn't been. This is what I had to say at the beginning of the year when taking a look at the roster:

Nabby dealt with some lower body injuries during pockets of last season, and his increasing age makes him more susceptible to that. I wouldn't mind somewhere in the GS range of 58-24 between the pipes. It's a damn near lock San Jose makes the playoffs, and testing out the pipeline can only improve Wilson's decision making in the future.

--"Heatley Finds A Home", September 12th

There seems to be an assertion amongst Sharks fans that Nabokov is at his best when is seeing a lot of starts. This likely stems from three situations:

1) His first year in the league where he saw 66 starts en route to a Calder Trophy. It cemented him as a fan favorite in San Jose, and served as a priming function when discussing Nabokov from then onwards.

2) The two seasons following the lockout where he split time with Vesa Toskala. Nabokov was atrocious in 05-06, putting up a .885 SV% and failing to start a single game in the playoffs. Head coach Ron Wilson continued to split the starts in 06-07, and Nabokov struggled until mid-February where he was given the starting role outright and logged big minutes down the stretch.

3) His 2007-2008 campaign, where he played an astounding 77 games and was nominated for the Vezina Trophy.

However, the statistics just don't back up that assertion.

Here are Nabokov's six legitimate playoff runs where he was the starting goaltender in at least half of the team's postseason games:

Evgeni Nabokov Regular Season vs. Playoffs SV%

Year	Reg. GP	Reg. SV%	Play. SV %	SV% Dif.
00-01	66	91.5	90.3	-1.2
01-02	67	91.8	90.4	-1.4
03-04	59	92.1	93.5	+1.4
06-07	50	91.4	92.0	+0.6
07-08	77	91.0	90.7	-0.3
08-09	62	91.0	89.0	-2.0

Essentially, whenever Nabokov stays under sixty starts during the course of the regular season he excels during the playoffs and improves his totals; whenever he climbs above sixty starts, his numbers drop.

If you include the Olympics in this year's totals, Nabokov will make his sixtieth appearance Thursday night against the Nashville Predators.

Those pre-lockout numbers don't necessarily concern me however. They provide a nice backbone to a study such as this of course, but Nabokov is at a different point in his career now with increasing age effecting his performance. It is more beneficial to look at the last three seasons of play and see how his SV% reacts to the number of games he plays in:

Looking at the chart, it's pretty easy to see the effect Ron Wilson had on Nabokov by riding him for that many games in 07-08. Around the 45 game mark that workload really began to take it's toll, and a great beginning to the year was essentially spoiled as the games increased. That, in and of itself, should blow the "Nabokov plays better when he starts more" theory out of the water.

Evgeni Nabokov is currently on pace to start 70 NHL games. The coaching staff has not given Greiss more than three starts in any month this season, and with the stretch run upon us, I suspect that philosophy will not change. Tack on an extra three games for Nabokov's stint with Russia in the Olympics and it's safe to consider this year 07-08 territory in terms of games played for the Shark netminder.

The positives? Nabokov's SV% has not undergone the same transformation as it did that fateful year, staying in the .920-.930 block all season long. He is in the midst of a Vezina-caliber season, and will be playing for a contract next offseason.

So does this strong play continue as the number of games increase? Does he regress to his career average SV% based off the possibility that the first five months of the season were statistical outliers? Or does an increased workload begin to take it's toll and decrease his effectiveness?

Only time will tell. But if history is any indication, it probably should have never gotten to this point to begin with.

Go Sharks.

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Evgeni Nabokov Regular Season vs. Playoffs SV%