Fear The Fin

2011-2012 San Jose Sharks Season Review: Thomas Greiss

2012-05-17T10:00:08Z

After a yearlong exile in Sweden, the Sharks' aggressive German netminder Thomas "Meth Squirrel" Greiss returned to the San Jose crease as a backup this season, his third year in that role (if you count his stunted stay in 07-08) and first behind Antti Niemi.

Greiss has long been one of the more energetic goaltenders you're likely to see manning an NHL crease. With a playing style similar to that of Winnipeg Jets starter Ondrej Pavelec, Greiss largely shuns conventional wisdom and the conservative technical play adopted by most of the NHL goaltending population to challenge shooters, position himself closer to the hashmarks than his own goal line and live (sometimes die) by the motto "when in doubt, pokecheck." In a lot of ways, he's the anti-Niemi (I'll be here all week) in that he relies heavily on his athleticism and lateral mobility to make saves. That's gotten him into trouble in the past, leaving him susceptible to some bad goals, but on the whole those types of tallies were largely diminished this season as Greiss posted some phenomenal numbers albeit over just a 19-game sample size.

San Jose's penalty kill left a lot of victims in its wake this year and unfortunately none of those were opposing power plays. The Sharks as a whole struggled due to their inability to keep pucks out of their net shorthanded with Greiss and Niemi both posting save percentages well below league-average on the PK. As we move forward in the offseason, an important thing to investigate will be the factors that resulted in those depressed save percentages. I'm firmly of the belief that team-to-team differences in shot quality are negligible at even-strength but the great JLikens of Objective NHL has shown that might not necessarily be the case on the penalty kill. PK SV% at the team level is reasonably repeatable and, perhaps more importantly, the league-wide spread in PK save percentages is actually wider than the spread in EV save percentages, strongly suggesting that there's more at work in creating the repeatability of those numbers than goaltending performance alone. But that's a discussion for another time - this is all just a long-winded way of saying that, even though Eric T. of Broad Street Hockey has demonstrated that with small sample sizes it's better to evaluate a goalie on overall SV% rather than EV SV% alone, I'll hold off on including penalty kill performance to highlight what was an incredible season at evens by Greiss. Here are the top ten goalies (min. 200 shots faced) in EV SV% during the 2011-12 season:

Player	EV SA	EV GA	EV SV%
Brian Elliott	806	44	.945
Jaroslav Halak	979	61	.938
Mike Smith	1724	111	.936
Jonathan Quick	1479	99	.933
Henrik Lundqvist	1454	97	.933
Niklas Backstrom	1055	73	.931
Cory Schneider	750	52	.931
Thomas Greiss	377	26	.931
Roberto Luongo	1288	91	.929
Jimmy Howard	1213	86	.929

Not bad company at all. Especially impressive is that, although he only faced half as many shots, Greiss posted an identical EV SV% to Cory Schneider whose season is being held up across Vancouver as justification for trading arguably the best goaltender of the last decade in Roberto Luongo. As you can imagine, Greiss' season looks even better relative to his peer group of backup goalies. Bruce Peter of Eyes on the Prize recently looked at average save percentages over the past eight seasons for starters, platoon members, backups and replacement goalies. The average NHL backup in 2011-12 posted an EV SV% of .917 compared to Greiss' .931 and an overall SV% of .910 compared to Greiss' .915. Of course the main thing to keep in mind through all of this is that a 19-game sample size isn't particularly meaningful and we should probably expect Greiss' EV SV% to regress next season (although, by the same token, it's really unlikely his penalty kill SV% will once again be in the neighborhood of his abysmal 0.829). After the jump, we'll take a look at Greiss' updated career stats to gain a larger sample size by which to judge him.

Thomas Greiss Career Statistics

GP	EV GA	EV SA	EV SV%	PK GA	PK SA	PK SV%	OVR GA	OVR SA	OVR SV%
38	58	735	.921	20	154	.870	82	921	.911

38 games still isn't all that much but it's all we have to work with. Over his career, Greiss has been a slightly above average goalie at evens and slightly below average on the penalty kill. Which, taken in sum, is excellent considering his cap hit. Greiss posted an impressive .925 EV SV% in 09-10, the only other season in which he was a legitimate backup, but a bizarre performance while the Sharks were on the power play that year (he allowed 4 goals on 8 opposing shorthanded attempts) undersold his overall SV% a bit.

FTF Grade: B+. I'm not willing to lay all the blame for Greiss' .829 PK SV% at his feet but in my mind that prevents him from scraping an A. I'm not sure how Doug Wilson convinced Greiss to re-up with the team last summer after he was banished by the organization the minute Niemi wound up on the free agent market but that contract looks better every day. The evidence (however limited) suggests the Sharks have a well above-average backup goalie in Greiss signed for just $587,500 next year. With his play this season, particularly at even-strength, Greiss has certainly earned more starts next year although it remains to be seen whether Todd McLellan will give those to him considering the degree to which the coaching staff seems to prefer riding Niemi.

Finally, here's Greiss putting on a clinic in a shootout against the Penguins, highlighted by a particularly juicy save on Kris Letang:

Poll

How would you grade Thomas Greiss' 2011-12 season?

2011-2012 San Jose Sharks Season Review: Michal Handzus

2012-05-16T10:00:10Z

If we had to hand out a Least Valuable Player award this season (let's call it the Alexei Semenov Memorial Trophy), it's hard to imagine it going to anyone other than Michal Handzus. It was unfortunately a year of tragedy for the big Slovakian center, both on the ice and to a much greater extent off it. The death of his countryman, former teammate and extremely close friend Pavol Demitra in the horrific Lokomotiv Yaroslavl plane crash back in September cast a pall over the year and likely contributed to one of the worst seasons of Handzus' career.

Doug Wilson's decision to tender Handzus a contract on the first day of free agency in 2011 was a curious one to begin with. As we've covered extensively in the past, Todd McLellan has always opted to deploy his forwards in a power-versus-power line matching scheme, using Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau against opposing top lines in the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons after utilizing Joe Pavelski in that role in McLellan's first year behind the Sharks bench, 2008-09. This has usually opened up the third line to some softer minutes, which Kyle Wellwood, Torrey Mitchell and Pavelski feasted upon last season to the tune of finishing 2nd, 4th and 10th, respectively, in Corsi/60 among forwards who appeared in at least 30 games that year. Handzus, a career-long defensive specialist, just never made much sense in that role. His acquisition presumably came either as a result of Wilson wanting to model the Sharks after the checking-line employing Canucks team they had just lost to in the Conference Finals (in which case, he should have probably discussed that with McLellan) or in the hopes that Handzus could provide a two-way presence similar to previous McLellan era third-line centers Manny Malhotra and Marcel Goc. It's safe to say that never came to fruition and the Handzus contract remains the biggest (and perhaps only) misstep by the Sharks' front office during the 2011 offseason.

The results were certainly worse than anyone could have reasonably expected. Using David Johnson's excellent even-strength statistics site we can see the impact Handzus had on the teammates he most frequently shared the ice with during 5v5 play this year:

Player	Corsi		Goals
	With Handzus	Without Handzus	With Handzus	Without Handzus
Jamie McGinn	46.5%	52.1%	50.0%	46.3%
Torrey Mitchell	46.6%	53.3%	43.8%	45.5%
Martin Havlat	42.1%	51.2%	66.7%	61.5%
Patrick Marleau	45.7%	54.1%	33.3%	56.4%
Andrew Murray	40.2%	54.5%	0.0%	69.2%

Brent Burns	46.2%	54.9%	58.8%	53.9%
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	47.5%	53.6%	46.2%	55.1%
Justin Braun	47.5%	56.2%	36.8%	53.8%
Jason Demers	41.4%	52.8%	27.8%	53.5%
Dan Boyle	43.0%	53.1%	40.0%	57.0%
Colin White	47.4%	51.9%	46.2%	43.8%
Douglas Murray	35.3%	48.8%	50.0%	51.1%
Jim Vandermeer	45.6%	54.8%	66.7%	75.0%

That's just ugly. Every single player on this list (limited to players who were on the ice with Handzus for at least 60 EV minutes over the course of the season) helped generate offensive-zone possession at a better rate when they were on the ice without Handzus compared to when they shared the ice with him. Especially hilarious are the Sharks' possession numbers when Handzus and Douglas Murray were on the ice together 5v5 as the Sharks operated at around the level we'd expect an AHL team to perform in a game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. It was a similar story with regards to goal percentage with only Jamie McGinn, Martin Havlat, Brent Burns and Colin White performing better with Handzus than without him - probably more due to variance than anything else. Even then, a closer look reveals it was clearly not Handzus driving things as, when he was on the ice without McGinn, Burns and White, the Sharks posted goal percentages of 18.2%, 36.1% and 42.5%, respectively.

All of this is made even more concerning when considering that Handzus faced a very low quality of competition at evens - almost all of these players were facing tougher opponents in their icetime away from Handzus and yet they were still able to perform substantially better when they were no longer forced to drag him around the ice. It's not difficult to see why Jamie McGinn nearly doubled his shot rate after being traded to the Avalanche - a lot of that was certainly the result of more ice time but much of it is also attributable to Ginner not having to spend as much time with a center completely incapable of keeping the puck in the right end of the rink.

Michal Handzus 4v5 Statistical Overview, 2009-2012

Season	Team	TOI/60	Corsi Rel QoC	SA/60	On-Ice SV%	GA/60
2011-2012	SJS	1.34 (5th)	0.563 (6th)	58.8 (7th)	.864 (4th)	8.03 (5th)
2010-2011	LAK	2.26 (1st)	2.245 (3rd)	53.8 (4th)	.910 (2nd)	4.85 (2nd)
2009-2010	LAK	2.60 (1st)	0.292 (8th)	48.5 (4th)	.806 (8th)	9.42 (8th)

Rankings are among forwards on each team with at least 30 GP who averaged at least one minute of shorthanded ice time per game. 7 Sharks qualified in 11-12, 6 Kings qualified in 10-11 and 8 Kings qualified in 09-10.

When announcing the signing on July 1st, Doug Wilson called Handzus "one of the top penalty-killing forwards in this league." He was right in that Handzus logged a lot of minutes for the Kings but his performances were never quite spectacular, although they were certainly steps up from Handzus' penalty killing this year in teal. No Sharks forward was on the ice for more shots against per 60 minutes while shorthanded than Handzus and only Pavelski and Dominic Moore, who spent the majority of the season killing penalties in front of awful Lightning goaltenders, were on the ice for more goals against per 60 on the PK. Handzus' ineptitude while down a man forced the hands of both McLellan and Wilson, with the former severely curtailing Handzus' minutes until he was finally taken out of regular penalty killing rotation when the latter acquired Moore and Daniel Winnik, both decidedly superior PKers.

FTF Grade: F. Handzus was a possession black hole in sheltered minutes at even-strength and was one of the Sharks' worst penalty killers despite being brought in primarily to improve the woeful PK. At 35 years of age, it seems unlikely he'll have a bounceback season anytime soon. Unfortunately, Handzus' deal not only still has a year remaining but, according to Capgeek, is equipped with a no-movement clause that Handzus probably won't waive for the types of teams likely to show interest in acquiring him. A buyout is Doug Wilson's only real option for dumping 'Zus this summer although it's not one ownership is likely to be thrilled about. The team has plenty of better prospective options at third line center--most of whom we'll cover in the coming weeks--from impending UFA and trade deadline acquisition Dominic Moore to other free agents like Daymond Langkow and Paul Gaustad to trade targets like the pricey-but-excellent David Legwand, aforementioned former Shark Goc or likely-unattainable pipe dream Matt Duchene. Hell, Andrew Desjardins would be a legitimate marked improvement over Handzus in the 3C spot.

Poll

How would you grade Michal Handzus' 2011-12 Season?

Doug Wilson apparently told Todd McLellan three days after the season ended that the Sharks' bench...

2012-05-15T20:17:40Z

Doug Wilson apparently told Todd McLellan three days after the season ended that the Sharks' bench boss was staying. Odd that there's been no announcement, but it sounds like there is a debate about assistant coaches. McLellan would fight hard for his guys, but the discussion appears to be about adding someone who had a lengthy NHL career.

Elliotte Friedman in his always-excellent 30 Thoughts column confirming McLellan will be back behind the bench in 2012-13.

UFA's of the Day: Plank and TCY (Thanks For The Memories, Fear The Fin)

2012-05-15T10:00:30Z

After four seasons filled with some of the best family-friendly fun that can be had on the internet, the time has come for us to hang up the keyboard and move on from our position as the Ambiguously Blogging Duo at Fear The Fin.

This decision doesn't come lightly, nor is it easy. Fear The Fin was a tremendous part of our lives for such a long time and the memories we made here are undoubtedly some of the best we'll ever have. It's not that cool to realize you've peaked in internet fame in your mid-20's, and we're certain we won't ever look at a Hamburger the same way ever again, but there comes a point in a man's life when he must decide between a bountiful harvest of hot pockets or dedicating his time to other pursuits of grandeur.

What we're trying to say is that we need more time with to re-enact famous Star Wars scenes in Matt's backyard while his mom tapes it and our significant others bake us brownies in the kitchen. Whether they fill those brownies with laxatives to try and shame us into submission is their prerogative, but rest assured we will carry on the good fight. It is our destiny.

As nerdy bloggin' types, the two of us have gotten the "It's not you, it's me" speech plenty of times over (if there's one piece of advice we can offer Derek on his way in: Never offer to show a classy lady the size of your blog. Not as suave as you think). So it feels extremely weird for us to be giving that speech to you, our wonderful community. But this has nothing to do with any of you. In fact, you're the reason that we stuck with it for so long. We've met a good number of you in person, but even the ones that we've never met we feel that we have a connection with. Even though the relationships we've built have been forged over a keyboard and worn down "z" buttons, they feel just as real to us that any that have been created in person.

The two of us barely knew each other when we started, but we can honestly say that we're great friends now and will continue to be that as we move on to other adventures. And we hope to maintain the friendships we've built with you along the way as well.

It's absolutely insane to think that this is the last time that we'll be pressing the "Publish" button on Fear the Fin. Between the two of us, we've written almost 2,000 articles and posted 20,000 comments. Not all of them were gold (anyone remember the short-lived "Acid-Induced Dreams" articles?), but we had fun with all of them. And while it became more of a job than a hobby as we grew, it was a job that we loved doing every step of the way.

We stayed up until 3 AM on weeknights podcasting and making commercials for ridiculous Sharks-themed products that we invented, much to Matt's wife's chagrin. It's not easy to record death-metal lines while keeping at a low decibel. Hell, we even got to go to and report from the NHL Draft, something that we'd dreamed about and were able to realize thanks to some great folks at SB Nation.

On that note, aside from thanking the great staff we have here, we'd also like to thank all that helped us along the way. From David Pollak giving us advice, to Brodie Brazil being a welcoming face in the dressing room, and the entire Sharks Media Relations department for looking past the blogger label, we thank you. To the guys at TFP for associating with us even when we couldn't write as much for them as either of us wanted... heck, they got us a consistent spot on national radio. There have been plenty along the way that helped to make FTF what it is now.

So even though we won't be using FTF as our personal manifesto anymore, we'll still be hanging around. And if the depths of the internet have learned anything over the last four years, it's how to goad us into a conversation that we never intended to be part of. So feel free to light the bat signal when a troll who just signed up suggests a Joe Thornton for a bag of pucks trade. Wherever there is comment board turmoil, we will be there. Like shining champions of unnecessary arguments, we will be there.

Rest assured Fear The Fin will continue to be in great hands moving forward. The Neutral has agreed to take over Managing Editor duties, and the phenomenal writing staff of mymclife, Jon Allred, Snark SD, idunno723, Ivan, and Jon W. will continue to deliver every ounce of Sharks coverage you deserve. Furthermore, we expect other writers will join the team in the coming months to help round out what is an already impressive writing lineup.

It is never easy to step away from a brand you worked so hard to build, and it is certainly never easy to say goodbye to something that was such a huge part of your life. But this decision was made much easier when we stepped back and realized that Fear The Fin will continue to be the best Sharks blog on the internet due to the talent of everyone on this writing staff.

We leave you in excellent hands.

Thank you so much for all of the memories over the last four seasons Fear The Fin. We couldn't have asked for a better group of colleagues, readers, and fans to share the ups and downs of Sharks hockey with.

Most importantly, we couldn't have asked for a better group of friends.

History of the Rosters: Eastern Conference Finals

2012-05-13T10:00:23Z

With the New York Rangers's 2-1 win over the Washington Capitals on Saturday night, the Conference finals match--ups were set. There would be a Pacific Division showdown in the West, and an Atlantic Division showdown in the East. While the Pacific Division's success was a bit of a surprise, the Atlantic Division was arguably the best in hockey, so it makes sense that the Eastern Conference's Stanley Cup representative would come from there.

So the Eastern Conference Finals features the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils, who beat the Philadelphia Flyers in five games. This is not the first time the Eastern Conference finals was an Atlantic Division match-up; it last happened in 2008 with the Penguins and Flyers. This is not even the first time these two teams have met in the Eastern Conference Finals, with the last time occurring in 1994. You might remember that year as the year Messier cried and Vancouver rioted the first time (I don't, but I was three - and here's the obligatory pause when you feel old).

Just like my previous article about the Western Conference Finals rosters, the purpose of this article is to examine how these two Atlantic Division teams built their rosters in order to be more successful than 13 other teams in their conference. I always find cool pieces of trivia when I do these - Pat Falloon still affects the Sharks' roster! - which is why I continue to create these charts far past the point of sanity.

Below are the charts for both the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers. As before, I only included players who have played a playoff game due to the "Black Ace" phenomenon. Unlike before, there's actually an appearance by a backup goalie. Hello, Johan Hedberg!

I admit, I don't know much about the New York area. My knowledge comes almost entirely from Friends, the Real Housewives of New York/New Jersey, and this gif. But what I do know is that New York teams are notorious for signing all the free agents, and these charts do not disagree with that stereotype. Both teams love free agents and hate trades (the Los Angeles Kings are clutching their chest right now). The one difference between the two is their treatment of draft picks.

Here is a handy chart that breaks down the types of players that were used to make up the two rosters:

Eastern Conference Finals Roster History Breakdown

Team	Roster	Original	Total	FA	Waiver	Total Players	# Trades	Players/Trade	Players/Roster
Devils	21	24	37	13	1	62	14	4.43	2.95
Rangers	21	13	21	13	0	49	14	3.5	2.33

Both the Devils and the Rangers have the same number of free agents and trades, which makes for relatively uncomplicated charts. Despite both of their long histories, the charts only go back to 1990 and 1988 respectively; I admit, I was disappointed that I wasn't able to go back to the Colorado Rockies or Kansas City Scouts eras.

The Devils used 24 of their own draft picks to make their roster, four of which are players that are on their roster. Thus, many of their 14 trades involved draft picks over free agents they signed - they only traded away three free agents on this chart. The sheer number of draft picks used in trades also signifies that any transactions they took part in were multi-player trades. In fact, there were no straight-up player-for-player trades on the chart.

The Rangers, on the other hand, were all about the free agents. They used as many of their original draft picks as they did free agents, and traded away seven of each. Either their scouting is sub-par, or the Rangers trade away a lot of picks without getting anything of impact in return.

Breakdown of what picks the two teams used by round:

Original Draft Pick Breakdown

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7+
Devils	9	5	4	3	2	0	1
Rangers	3	2	4	1	0	1	2

The Devils's breakdown looks pretty standard, with only the 2012 7th throwing off a steady decrease in number of draft picks. Meanwhile, the Rangers have a fairly random draft pick distribution, with the third round ranking as the most productive, roster-wise. That even holds true if you expand it to all the draft picks the Rangers used for their roster (this includes draft picks they received in trades).

In their 14 trades, the Devils had 11 different trade partners. Only the Calgary Flames, St Louis Blues, and Washington Capitals contributed multiple times to the roster.

In the Rangers' 14 trades, there were 12 trade partners. They traded with the Colorado Avalanche and Anaheim Ducks twice each. In a first, the San Jose Sharks actually contributed to this roster, in the form of a draft pick in exchange for Mark Messier's rights.

Awards

In researching these teams, I found a few players and transactions that I found notable for various reasons.

Player that Makes Ann Want to Kill Herself

~~Jeff Carter~~ Marek Zidlicky, I guess, as his branch was technically the most involved.

Something for Nothing

Ryan Callahan, for Mark Messier's rights. Mark Messier then immediately signed back with the Rangers.

Are You Kidd-ing Me?

The Calgary Flames traded up in the 1990 draft to select Trevor Kidd. The pick they traded away was used to select Martin Brodeur.

Coolest Name

Zdeno Ciger. I don't know about anyone else, but I immediately get a picture of Zdeno Chara nonchalantly smoking a cigar as he skates across the ice in my head.

Photographic Memory Crime Solver

Cam Janssen.

Jawsome Team

The New Jersey Devils has the most ex-Sharks on their chart, with Steve Bernier, Lukas Kaspar, and Claude Lemieux. Fond memories of all them, I'm sure. The New York Rangers, on the other hand, have only one "ex-Shark," which is Mark Messier, who should probably not even count.

Final Notes

While the Western Conference saw a stark difference in methodology, the Eastern Conference sees two teams with very similar methods of building a roster. Both teams love free agents, and tend not to hold on to assets or retain their value through trades. It's also interesting to note that for both teams, the goalie was the earliest acquisition; the Devils in 1990 and the Rangers in 2000. While both West teams have an emphasis on goaltending, the two East teams truly built from the net out.

BONUS: Because these charts take forever to make, I wanted to have both the Rangers and the Capitals ones ready for posting. So here's the Capitals chart, minus analysis, for any who are interested.

As always, thanks to Pro Sports Transactions for the info.

Introducing P+CORP: Points + Corsi Over Replacement Player

2012-05-11T22:38:46Z

P+CORP = (P/60 +
Avg NHL Replacement Level P/60)
+ (Corsi Rel + Avg NHL Replacement Level Corsi Rel) / [coeffiecient] + (Corsi On +
Avg NHL Replacement Level Corsi Rel) / [coeffiecient]

P+CORP (I leave the pronunciation to your discretion) wasn't something I went looking for, but was really the consequence of defining NHL replacement level talent. It's a holistic stat forged under KISS principles that bloomed before me as an inevitable consequence of my previous post. Following that post I began to lament the fact that we currently didn't have an OBP+SLG like baseball. The concept to me was so perfect. OBP represents a player' s ability to setup his team to score, as getting on base perserves an out and puts a runner in position to score. SLG represents a player's ability to produce, that is, to generate runs if teammates are in scoring position. At that moment it occurred to me (and I honestly feel pretty stupid for not putting this together sooner) that we have 2 stats with a similar scope.

A player's Corsi tells us about possession. If a skater has great possession numbers, by inductive reasoning we can also say that he's putting his team in the position to generate scoring chances, and in all liklihood, limiting the opposition's scoring chances. P/60 represents a player's ability to produce. Although a little confounded by PDO, it still is a good measure of a player's ability to convert on those opportunities. I think many of us had unconsciously connected these 2 stats when evaluating players, but now I present them under one heading, while fine-tuning the coefficients to give us the best results. At it's heart it's a simple stat that serves as a good substitute or comparison piece to the current gold standard of player evaluation, GVT. The beauty is in it's ease of calculation, which requires looking up only 3 (or 4 for Defensemen) stats from the main Behind The Net page. My underlying assumption is that ice time increases with line status, ie. top lines are given the most ice time, but everything else falls out from detailed data collection. I didn't fine tune these numbers so the best players are at the top of the list, this is evidenced-based hockey analysis.

P+CORP for Forwards

Forward P+CORP = P/60 + (Corsi Rel + 7) / 20 + (Corsi On + 7) / 20

P+CORP is really built for forwards. It's an amalgam of offensive production and possession. The objective for most forwards is to score, and we directly measure that. With the addition of Corsi we measure that forwards ability to push play in the right direction, while adding reliability along the way. I used both Cosi Rel and Corsi On in attempt to utilize both their strengths and neutralize both their weaknesses. Corsi Rel tends to over-state players that play on weak teams, while Corsi On over-states players on good teams. By using both, the cream that rises to the top are players that are either good players on average teams, or average players on good teams. The elite being those with a strong Corsi on and Corsi Rel, that is, good players on good teams.

What I love the most about this stat is how accessible it is. I still consider GVT to be currently the best tool to evaluate player contribution, but I think this creates a widely available substitute that correlates very well with GVT. In addition, it is well integrated with replacement level. A score of 0 will always be our baseline replacement level talent. As P+CORP increases (and theoretically decreases) talent level increases as compared to (ie. over) replacement level.

We'll start our analysis with some simple year-over-year correlations in comparison to GVT. (I know, not the most rigourous, but sufficient because I don't have game-by-game GVT). What we're basically doing is comparing the previous year's results to the following year, and trying to see if the previous year predicts the following year accurately. My dataset (N=1077) included 2007-2012 (5 years) skaters who have over 450 total TOI, all (save GVT) are 5v5 numbers.

Forward Year To Year Correlations

	TOI/60	P/60	Corsi Relative	Corsi On	P+CORP	GVT
r(Self)	0.77	0.5	0.62	0.56	0.65	0.65
r(toi/60)	0.77	0.56	0.43	0.32	0.55	0.63
r(P/60)	0.47	0.5	0.4	0.34	0.51	0.51
r(Corsi Rel)	0.41	0.4	0.62	0.43	0.58	0.37
r(Corsi On)	0.3	0.35	0.45	0.56	0.54	0.35
r(GVT)	0.55	0.55	0.41	0.36	0.54	0.65

The two most important numbers come from the r(self) and r(GVT) rows. These represent each stat (in the columns) ability to predict next year's (row) results. TOI/60 is the most repeatable (highest r(self)) which is understandble, as coaches are likely to play their top players no matter what kind of season they are having. Both GVT and P+CORP are equally repeatable, a good indicator of their respective reliability. We can see from the r(GVT) row that P+CORP does a reasonable job tracking along with GVT. At this level I would say the difference between TOI/60 and P+CORP is negligble, and both predict future GVT with equal ability.

Another way to parse the data (N= 281) is looking only at players that ended the season on different teams. BTN doesnt provide season splits, so it's possible and likely that some players appear on other teams due to trade deadline acquisition, and really played a majority of their time on the same team. This could disrupt the results, but we'll take that as we analyze the data.

Forwards Year To Year Different Team Correlations

	TOI/60	P/60	Corsi Rel	Corsi On	P+CORP	GVT
r(Self)	0.682	0.423	0.570	0.386	0.572	0.481
r(P/60)	0.361	0.423	0.305	0.191	0.386	0.376
r(GVT)	0.456	0.484	0.342	0.240	0.447	0.481
r(toi/ 60)	0.683	0.524	0.371	0.287	0.498	0.589

What grabbed me immediately was how repeatable Corsi Rel was year to year when skating for a different team. I hadn't seen this before, and it really shows the importance of that stat. P+CORP uses this to it's advantage and vaults over GVT in this set of data.

Lastly we'll look at % variance explained by a stat intra year. This tells us which stats give us the most information about our GVT and P+CORP results, and really unearths my biggest criticism of GVT (and PC, for that matter).

% of Variance Explained

	On-Ice Sh%	On-Ice Sv%	PDO	P/60	Corsi Rel	Corsi On	P+CORP	gvt
PDO	0.514	0.304	1.000	0.292	0.009	0.001	0.089	0.218
TOI/60	0.160	0.039	0.040	0.237	0.123	0.074	0.207	0.442
P/60	0.681	0.051	0.292	1.000	0.249	0.187	0.654	0.681
Corsi Rel	0.083	0.045	0.009	0.249	1.000	0.528	0.747	0.235
Corsi On	0.024	0.021	0.001	0.187	0.528	1.000	0.697	0.200
GVT	0.434	0.017	0.218	0.681	0.235	0.200	0.529	1.000

The columns represent the % of variance explained by the stat in the row

As you can see, nearly 2/3 of GVT can be accounted for by TOI/60 and PDO. . This is my biggest problem with accounting all successes and failures of a team to specific players. Ultimately the randomness (non-repeatable) elements are assigned as well. P+CORP is a rate stat, so it doesn't consider contribution over the entire year. Small samples may be a little out of whack with reality, and would require adjusting (regressing) to the mean. There is utility in the accounting approach of GVT and PC. With P+CORP we now have a reliable rate stat for comparison.

Here is the obligatory table of top players that really doesn't tell you anything you don't already know. I usually prefer to filter through stats like zone% and Corsi Rel QOC, but here I adjusted P+CORP for both.

Forward Zone and Competition Adjusted P+CORP = P/60 + (Corsi Rel + 7) / 20 + (Corsi On + 7) / 20 + (Corsi Rel QOC + 1)/5 + (49 - Ozone%)/12

Career Zone and Competition Adjusted P+CORP Leaders

NAME	TOI (>2000)	GP	P/60	Corsi Rel	Corsi On	Corsi Rel QOC	OZ%	P+CORP	Rank	Adj P+CORP	Adj rank
PAVELDATSYUK	5364	369	2.58	12.03	20.09	0.80	52.38	4.89	3	4.97	1
SIDNEYCROSBY	4042	274	3.48	9.76	7.09	0.32	53.60	5.02	2	4.90	2
HENRIKZETTERBERG	6264	390	2.78	10.40	12.69	1.07	51.80	4.63	5	4.81	3
PATRICEBERGERON	4025	308	2.22	10.12	12.07	0.78	45.42	4.03	19	4.68	4
JUSTINWILLIAMS	5690	388	2.38	8.62	17.33	0.45	52.00	4.38	6	4.42	5
RYANKESLER	5442	403	1.83	10.34	9.33	0.91	44.96	3.51	50	4.23	6
PATRIKELIAS	4889	371	2.28	11.63	11.51	0.84	54.04	4.14	14	4.09	7
BRADMARCHAND	2164	173	2.14	9.13	11.61	0.47	50.50	3.87	24	4.04	8
JOETHORNTON	6048	405	2.42	7.49	11.02	0.46	52.70	4.05	17	4.03	9
DANIELSEDIN	5367	381	2.86	17.77	14.23	0.00	65.22	5.16	1	4.01	10
RYANGETZLAF	5891	373	2.16	15.26	7.14	0.19	51.76	3.98	20	3.98	11
NICKLASBACKSTROM	3870	285	2.12	15.33	15.69	0.03	56.14	4.37	7	3.98	12
ZACHPARISE	4967	339	2.37	11.32	10.74	0.44	55.12	4.17	12	3.95	13
HENRIKSEDIN	5906	410	2.86	14.24	11.81	0.02	62.48	4.87	4	3.95	14
ALEXOVECHKIN	4776	362	2.16	13.23	14.80	0.01	55.26	4.26	10	3.95	15
MARCSAVARD	3072	222	2.34	2.86	4.63	0.36	46.25	3.42	64	3.92	16
MARTINERAT	4920	356	2.14	6.53	3.51	1.00	46.90	3.34	75	3.91	17
CHRISKUNITZ	5149	361	2.32	10.10	14.95	0.29	56.52	4.27	9	3.90	18
TYLERKENNEDY	3887	326	1.98	9.11	9.53	0.49	49.26	3.61	40	3.89	19
ALEXANDERSEMIN	4545	340	2.58	7.48	11.05	0.24	55.94	4.20	11	3.87	20
ANDREWLADD	5180	390	2.08	7.69	10.22	0.81	51.16	3.68	37	3.86	21
DAVIDBACKES	5365	397	1.99	6.67	6.44	0.74	47.00	3.34	73	3.86	22
COREYPERRY	6105	392	2.21	13.59	5.29	0.18	51.98	3.86	26	3.84	23
JOEPAVELSKI	5098	385	1.88	6.80	10.73	0.93	49.38	3.46	56	3.81	24
NIKOLAIZHERDEV	2931	220	2.04	12.63	13.08	0.34	54.83	4.03	18	3.81	25

I was caught in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario when adjusting for ozone% and Corsi Rel QOC. The Sedins are at the top of the unadjusted results, but by adjusting players like Kesler end up in the top 10, despite barely cracking top 50 unadjusted. Like I mentioned before, I usually prefer filtering, but presented it this way for brevity.

Single Season P+CORP Leaders

Rank	Single Season P+CORP	SEASON	P+CORP	Single Season S.J P+CORP	SEASON	P+CORP
1	ALEXOVECHKIN	2009-2010 Season	6.03	JOETHORNTON	2011-2012 Season	5.04
2	HENRIKZETTERBERG	2007-2008 Season	5.85	JOEPAVELSKI	2010-2011 Season	4.80
3	SIDNEYCROSBY	2010-2011 Season	5.70	RYANECLOWE	2010-2011 Season	4.75
4	PATRICEBERGERON	2011-2012 Season	5.62	PATRICKMARLEAU	2009-2010 Season	4.40
5	HENRIKSEDIN	2009-2010 Season	5.47	JOEPAVELSKI	2011-2012 Season	4.35
6	DANIELSEDIN	2009-2010 Season	5.41	KYLEWELLWOOD	2010-2011 Season	4.26
7	PAVELDATSYUK	2007-2008 Season	5.38	PATRICKMARLEAU	2008-2009 Season	4.18
8	PAVELDATSYUK	2008-2009 Season	5.37	JOETHORNTON	2007-2008 Season	4.15
9	ANDREWLADD	2008-2009 Season	5.37	LOGANCOUTURE	2010-2011 Season	4.15
10	ZACHPARISE	2008-2009 Season	5.33	JOETHORNTON	2009-2010 Season	4.12
11	JUSTINWILLIAMS	2007-2008 Season	5.33	JOEPAVELSKI	2009-2010 Season	4.10
12	MARIANHOSSA	2008-2009 Season	5.26	TORREYMITCHELL	2010-2011 Season	4.04
13	BRADMARCHAND	2011-2012 Season	5.22	JOEPAVELSKI	2008-2009 Season	3.71
14	PATRICEBERGERON	2010-2011 Season	5.18	JOETHORNTON	2008-2009 Season	3.71
15	ALEXANDERSTEEN	2011-2012 Season	5.16	MANNYMALHOTRA	2009-2010 Season	3.64
16	PAVELDATSYUK	2010-2011 Season	5.09	RYANECLOWE	2009-2010 Season	3.63
17	TYLERSEGUIN	2011-2012 Season	5.09	MILANMICHALEK	2008-2009 Season	3.58
18	SIDNEYCROSBY	2007-2008 Season	5.09	LOGANCOUTURE	2011-2012 Season	3.55
19	JOETHORNTON	2011-2012 Season	5.04	PATRICKMARLEAU	2010-2011 Season	3.49
20	ALEXBURROWS	2008-2009 Season	5.02	PATRICKMARLEAU	2011-2012 Season	3.49
21	SIDNEYCROSBY	2009-2010 Season	4.96	DANYHEATLEY	2009-2010 Season	3.34
22	JUSTINWILLIAMS	2010-2011 Season	4.92	DEVINSETOGUCHI	2008-2009 Season	3.33
23	JOHANFRANZEN	2008-2009 Season	4.90	JOETHORNTON	2010-2011 Season	3.05
24	DANIELSEDIN	2008-2009 Season	4.89	RYANECLOWE	2008-2009 Season	3.04
25	CLAUDEGIROUX	2010-2011 Season	4.85	MILANMICHALEK	2007-2008 Season	2.84

No surprises for me when it comes to either column. That 2010-2011 season for the Sharks saw a lot of production from a lot of players. The fact that JT's 2011-2012 campaign outshines every other year tells you something about the role he was given last year. Wellwood's number is really interesting. He only played in 35 games, a small sample, and posted a fantastic 4.26. A year later playing top 6 minutes with the Jets and Wellwood's P+CORP? A 4.27, how's that for reliable? Both those years are well above his career average, but maybe he has finally found a good role.

P+CORP for Defensemen

Defensemen P+CORP = P/60 + (Corsi Rel + 2) / 10 + (Corsi On + 2) / 10 + (Corsi Rel Qoc + 0.5) / 2

The difference between forwards and defensemen is so substantial that nearly every stat is effected by the difference in roles, and P+CORP is no exception. A defensemen's responsibility is is to prevent the opposition from producing goals. The unfortunate thing is we don't have anything such as negative Points/60, because we can't as easily assign the value a goal against to a specific player. However, defensemen still contribute a fair amount of offense, just not nearly as much as forwards. Subsequently, we have to add another stat to P+CORP for defensemen, Corsi Rel QOC, which is our best understanding of the level of competition a defensemen faces. Normally I advocate for filtering contextual stats, rather than adjusting for them outright, but the level of competition a defensemen faces is so important to their role that it's incorporation is inescapable.

Defensemen Year to Year Correlations

	TOI/60	P/60	Corsi Relative	Corsi On	Corsi Rel QoC	P+CORP	GVT	Corsi Rel QOC adj P+CORP
r(self)	0.641	0.317	0.480	0.514	0.527	0.551	0.586	0.541
r(p)	0.155	0.317	0.352	0.286	-0.055	0.380	0.385	0.392
r(toi)	0.641	0.238	0.199	0.184	0.404	0.299	0.447	0.311
r(GVT)	0.363	0.367	0.398	0.392	0.177	0.501	0.586	0.510
r(pdo)	0.008	-0.022	0.013	0.061	0.026	0.039	0.039	0.035

General Information

Name	Mean	Standard Deviation
Forward P+CORP	2.43	1.19
Defensemen Adj P+CORP	1.36	1.50

As I mentioned before, one of the strengths of holistic stats is that we can always assess value above replacement level talent. I haven't tried to standardize defensemen and forward P+CORP values. It's not to say I won't try to rectify that later, but for now I'll just leave it as it is. Of note from the table above is that replacement level for defensmen was significantly higher than for forwards. Assusming that the recent data is correct, less than a standard deviation from the Adj P+CORP mean represented replacement level talent, suggesting that a few teams carry replacement level as the 5th and 6th defensmen and many teams as the 7th defensemen. Whereas replacement level is largely 4th line and role players for forwards.

What I've presented here is certainly an introduction to a working statistic. At best it is still very raw and needs much more refinement. It's built on a solid foundation of what makes hockey players successful, tracks very nicely with the gold standard of player evaluation, GVT, and is relatively easy to calculate. At the very least I hope you, loyal fear the fin reader, find it interesting and useful.

History of the Rosters: Western Conference Finals

2012-05-08T10:00:27Z

Going into the playoffs this year, all the talk was about how dominant the Central division was (outside of Columbus), and how it was certain that two of the four teams (still excluding Columbus) would meet up in the Western Conference Finals. Well, look who's laughing now. Not the Central division, that's for sure. And Sharks fans. Definitely not Sharks fans.

After the Los Angeles Kings swept the St. Louis Blues and the Phoenix Coyotes beat the Nashville Predators in five games, the Western Conference Finals became an all-Pacific Division Conference Finals, the first time it has happened since the Pacific Division was formed. The Pacific Division in the conference finals is not exactly a rare occurrence - 2009 was the only year since 2003 that did not have a Pacific Division team playing for the chance to play for the Cup - but it's still notable.

But the reason of this article is not to extol the virtues of playing in the Pacific Division, but rather to examine how those two Pacific Division teams built their rosters so that one of them will be playing for the Stanley Cup. For the past two years, I've been examining how the San Jose Sharks roster has come together, through draft picks, trades, and free agent signings. Due to the Sharks' unfortunate early exit from the playoffs, and because I'm actually fascinated by this sort of thing, I decided to branch out and do roster charts for the two teams that are where the Sharks have been the past two years.

Below are the charts for both the Los Angeles Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes. Normally, I would pull the rosters off the official site rosters, but due to the "Black Ace" phenomenon, I decided to stick with only the players that have played in a playoff game. So sorry Jonathan Bernier and Jason LaBarbera, in the words of Heidi Klum, you are out.

The Los Angeles Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes illustrated the tale of two methods of building rosters. The Kings are firm believers in trade first, ask questions later. And once the questions are asked, the answer is always trade. The Coyotes, on the other hand, prefer to sign free agents or retain their original draft picks.

Here is a handy chart that breaks down the types of players that were used to make up the two rosters:

Western Conference Finals Roster History Breakdown

Team	Roster	Original	Total	FA	Waiver	Total Players	# Trades	Players/Trade	Players/Roster
Kings	21	55	80	8	1	145	42	3.45	6.9
Coyotes	23	14	21	15	2	57	20	2.85	2.48

As you can see, the Kings love trades, making 42 separate trades to compose a 21 man roster - two trades for every player! They also used 55 of their own draft picks, and 80 draft picks (both theirs and ones they traded for/away) in total. There were only 8 free agents used to create the roster. This says to me that the Kings' front office puts a premium on asset value retention; they like to build rosters off of what they already have, rather than letting players go and signing new ones.

In contast, the Coyotes made 20 trades for their 23 man roster. They also only used 14 of their own draft picks and 21 draft picks in total. Their 15 free agents used is more than their original draft picks used. The Coyotes thus do not retain asset value - despite being an NHL team since 1979, Shane Doan is by far the earliest branch, going back to 1995. This probably is an effect of Gretzky's reign of terror and the ownership issues that have been going on for the past few years.

Breakdown of what picks the two teams used by round:

Original Draft Pick Breakdown

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7+	Expansion
Kings	20	12	7	3	5	1	5	2
Coyotes	5	2	2	3	1	0	1	0

The first round is by far the most productive round for both teams, which is fairly predictable. However, while the second round the second-most productive for the Los Angeles Kings, the fourth round holds that distinction for the Phoenix Coyotes. The Kings also used two players from the 1967 expansion draft (Bob Wall from the Detroit Red Wings, and Gord Labossiere from the Montreal Canadiens), which ranks them as two of the first members of the Los Angeles Kings. While it's no Pat Falloon to Jamie McGinn/Galiardi and Winnik, it's still pretty cool to see the roster be connected to the very first days.

Out of their 20 trades, the Coyotes used 13 different trade partners, the most with the New York Rangers. The only other teams that the Coyotes traded with multiple times were the Columbus Blue Jackets, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Kings used 21 trade partners for their 42 trades, with the only NHL teams not included are the Chicago Blackhawks, Florida Panthers, Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, Phoenix Coyotes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Winnipeg Jets, and the San Jose Sharks. Actually, both teams did not make any trades with the Sharks that contribute to the roster, which, as a Sharks fan, makes me feel a bit better inside. Contrary to popular opinion, the Flyers were not the team that contributed most to the Kings' roster via trade, although they are tied for second. The Kings' four trades with the Edmonton Oilers and the Detroit Red Wings give them the honor of the most traded-with teams.

Awards

In researching the teams, I came across a few players who I thought were notable for various reasons.

Player that Makes Ann Want to Kill Herself

Jeff Carter. When researching these charts, his branch alone took up two full pages in my handy-dandy notebook. The entire Phoenix Coyotes roster took three pages.

HM: Dustin Penner was close, but the fact that he branched off of an already-researched Jeff Carter branch (hello, Jari Kurri) made it easier to deal with.

Flyers West

Believe it or not (and you better believe it), S. Couturier (Sylvain, not Sean) was in Jeff Carter's branch.

When Push Comes to Shove

Konstantin Pushkarev (Kings). There's nothing really notable about him, just that I really like the name.

Orson Scott Card's Favorite Player

Enver Lisin (Coyotes). Enver Lisin, Ender Wiggin - it's close enough.

Something from Turtles

Michal Rozsival can be traced back to Claude Lemieux

The Great One to the Pancake One

As mentioned before, Dustin Penner's branch can be traced back to the famous (or infamous, depending on whether or not you use "eh" in daily speech) Wayne Gretzky trade.

L'amour pour Lacroix

The Los Angeles Kings traded for Eric Lacroix twice in the pursuit of Jeff Carter.

Jawsome Team

Besides using the same coach and general manager that the Sharks used to use, the Los Angeles Kings used the most ex-Sharks on their roster: Tom Pressing, Marty McSorley, Doug Zmolek, and Brad Stuart. The Phoenix Coyotes only had two: Ray Whitney and Claude Lemieux.

Final Notes

What these two roster charts show is that there isn't one specific way to construct a solid playoff roster - you can hoard your assets and trade for Eric Lacroix twice, or you can rely on free agent signings and the Sharks' 2nd ever draft pick to tally almost a point per game. Or just that a hot goalie can overcome anything. But really, my main conclusion is that I really, really dislike both Jeff Carter and Dustin Penner.

As always, thanks to Pro Sports Transactions for the info.

National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman is slated to be in Glendale Monday to announce the...

2012-05-07T14:17:35Z

National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman is slated to be in Glendale Monday to announce the NHL has reached tentative terms to sell the Phoenix Coyotes to an ownership group led by Greg Jamison. The move is a major step in Jamison’s bid to buy the Coyotes and keep them in Arizona.

Bettman is slated to hold a press conference before the Phoenix Coyotes-Nashville Predators playoff game. He is expected to announce the Coyotes are no longer on the market and the league is finalizing a sale with Jamison.

The NHL has owned the team since 2009. Jamison is the former CEO of the San Jose Sharks and is a minority owner of that franchise.

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