Federal Baseball

Nationals News, 0-1 Edition

2009-07-17T13:29:44Z

Because the all-star break is seen as the halfway point in the season, I'm going to give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt and just forget about the first half. The Nats benefited from a few days of rest (because they aren't all-stars), a new manager, and hopefully a new attitude, so now is as good a time as any to start over. They may have gone 26-61 in 2009.1, but I have high hopes for 2009.2! Now, on to the news:

Quote of the day, from catcher Josh Bard via Nationals Journal: "We're making stinkin' boatloads of money to go out there and win baseball games." Unfortunately, he didn't continue on to say "but we aren't winning baseball games, so we shouldn't be getting paid stinkin' boatloads of money."

Scott Olsen, originally scheduled to start tonight, has been scratched with arm tightness, so Craig Stammen gets the call. Saturday is still Jordan Zimmerman, and Garrett Mock will be making his first start in the majors on Sunday, after being called up from Syracuse.

Over at FJB, fan confidence is UP! Unbelievable!

Emilie Cole at Nationals Pride has put together a nice retrospective of players' opinions of Manny Acta. Players supported him through his entire tenure here, and, based on what they said, they knew he was doing things right and they were doing things wrong. They just couldn't get it together for him.

Record breaking news after the jump!

Ryan Howard became the fastest player to 200 home runs last night with a solo shot against the Marlins. It took him just 658 games, shattering Ralph Kiner's record of 706 games.

On Deck, ep. 9.... Acta gets the axe, plus a recap of the best moments from the first half of the...

2009-07-17T07:08:53Z

On Deck, ep. 9.... Acta gets the axe, plus a recap of the best moments from the first half of the 2009 baseball season.

The Same Old Washington Nationals Drop One To The Chicago Cubs, 6-2 final.

2009-07-17T03:00:55Z

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

about 15 hours ago: Washington Nationals starting pitcher John Lannan delivers against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, July 16, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Browse more photos »

What was new about the Washington Nationals in their first game under "Interim Manager" Jim Riggleman? Nothing. They got a new manager not a new team. The same old Washington Nationals dropped a 6-2 decision to the visiting Chicago Cubs, in a game filled with errors, another bullpen implosion and another wasted effort by a starting pitcher. This time, it was staff "Ace", lefty John Lannan, who left the game down 3-1, having given up just 7 hits and 3 runs, 2 earned in 6.2 IP. DC reliever Jason Bergmann got the Nationals out of the seventh and through the eighth, but in the ninth, Julian Tavarez gave up a leadoff walk and back to back singles and saw all three Cubs score to turn a 3-1 game into a 6-1 blowout. Nick Johnson hits an RBI groundout in the sixth, and Ryan Zimmerman sends one into the right field bullpen in the ninth for the Nationals' only two runs. Cubs' starter Rich Harden K's 7 in 6.0 IP and gets his 6th win when Kevin Gregg eventually closes it...

Cubs win, 6-2 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

Check Out: The Bleed Cubbie Blue GameThread...

HEADLINES: (After The Jump)...under construction

• E = 83

• E = 84

• The Julian Tavarez Experiment Is Over?

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 26-62.

HEADLINES:

• E = 83

If you have been able to ignore it up to this point, it hit home in an instant when Ryan Zimmerman came in on a weak grounder by the Cubs' catcher Koyie Hill in the third and threw it right over Nick Johnson at first allowing Hill to take second, move to third on a sac bunt and score on a sac fly for Chicago's first run of the game. Zimmerman, who would go on to make several stellar defensive plays in the game, just occasionally sails them...it's always when he loads up and has too much time, he's rarely off on a rushed throw, but when he has a moment to think, he's developed a tic, or at least a tendency, and it's one he really needs to eliminate from his game.

• E = 84

The Nationals' second error of the game, and 84th in '09, came on a weaker grounder back to the mound with runners on first and third, when DC lefty Sean Burnett, who'd inherited the situation, bobbled the ball and tossed home to Josh Bard a second too late to get the Cubs' runner, Sam Fuld. Fuld scored after having singled off Julian Tavarez earlier in Chicago's half of the frame...And speaking of Julian Tavarez...

• The Julian Tavarez Experiment Is Over?

In just 3.0 IP over his last 5 appearances, Julian Tavarez has now allowed 6 hits, 8 runs, 5 ER and 5 BB. Tavarez is (3-7) with a 4.72 ERA in 34.1 IP '09 in which he's allowed 26 runs, 18 ER, 27 walks and 1 HR. Of course, he is coming off of a (2-1) June in which he posted a 0.79 ERA in 12 G and 11.1 IP in which he gave up just 1 ER....Can that Julian Tavarez come back? Or is he done?

Chicago Cubs At Washington Nationals. Game 88 of 162.

Josh Willingham waits and then lunges for the first out of the game off Cubs’ center fielder Reed Johnson’s bat. Ryan Theriot rolls the second out to the Nationals’ second baseman, Alberto Gonzalez. Milton Bradley skies one to right, and John Lannan’s got a scoreless first...Nyjer Morgan pops out halfway to first, Derrek Lee makes the catch. Nick Johnson flies out to Reed Johnson in center. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging in his first post ASG AB. Cubs’ righty Rich Harden is through the first.

Josh Willingham’s glove is on the ground when he catches Derrek Lee’s line drive to right. John Lannan’s all over the zone as he walks Aramis Ramirez. Alfonso Soriano tries to check his swing, but can’t hold up on a high 2-2 fastball. After Aramis Ramirez walks Jeff Baker grounds to short, Guzman to Gonzalez for the force to end the Cubs’ second...Adam Dunn K’s swinging at a mid-90’s 2-2 fastball. Josh Willingham flies out a few feet left of center. Cristian Guzman flies out to short left, Soriano hops and catches it.

Ryan Zimmerman throws away a ground ball from Cubs’ catcher Koyie Hill. Rich Harden’s sac bunt moves Hill to third. John Lannan drops an 0-2 bender on Reed Johnson who K’s trying to check his swing. Ryan Theriot flies to right and just inside the line. Hill scores from third. 1-0 Cubs. Milton Bradley pops one up he wants back, Willingham makes the catch...Josh Bard pops out to short right. Alberto "The General" Gonzalez triples to right when Milton Bradley bobbles the liner after it bounces off the wall. John Lannan goes down swinging in an unproductive AB. Nyjer Morgan grounds out to second to end the third.

Derrek Lee drives a double into the right field corner to start the Cubs’ fourth. Aramis Ramirez flies out to short center, Morgan makes the catch and holds Lee at second. Alfonso Soriano singles to center, Lee holds up at third as Nyjer Morgan throws in, and Soriano gets caught between first and second and tagged out at first. Jeff Baker flies out to right, and Soriano helps out his old team...Nick Johnson grounds out to first, Lee tosses to Rich Harden covering. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging at a boring sinker inside. Adam Dunn K’s again.

Cristian Guzman backhands a sharp grounder from Koyie Hill, and the Guz fires to first to get the Cubs’ catcher. Rich Harden hits a weak grounder for out no. 2. Reed Johnson hits a line drive to right that drops in front of the Hammer. Ryan Theriot ground out to second, Alberto Gonzalez throws to first...Josh Willingham pops straight up, Derrek Lee gets under it. Cristian Guzman K’s looking. Josh Bard gets hit by a pitch that bounces first. Alberto Gonzalez rips a single through short, Bard in scoring position. John Lannan grounds into a force at second to end the fifth.

Cristian Guzman takes a single away from Milton Bradley with a sliding play on a one-hopper to short. Derrek Lee gets hold of a hanging curve outside that’s deposited in right for a 2-0 Cubs’ lead. Nyjer Morgan catches out no. 2 off Aramis Ramirez’s bat. Alfonso Soriano grounds out to third...Nyjer Morgan bunts his way on to start the Nationals’ sixth. NIck "Two-Spot" Johnson up, Morgan steals second, and Koyie Hill’s throw bounces and sails into center, Morgan takes third. Nick Johnson grounds to Ryan Theriot’s backhand at short, Morgan scores, 2-1 Cubs. Ryan Zimmerman’s 0 for 3 after a groundout to short. Adam Dunn’s a mess, another K.

Cristian Guzman knocks down a hard roller deep in the hole at short, but Jeff Baker’s on with a single. Ryan Zimmerman charges in on a sac bunt from Koyie Hill and makes the throw. Nick Johnson robs Micah Hoffpauir with a backhand stab on a high hopper. Baker takes third. Reed Johnson hits a two-out single to center to score the Cubs’ third run, and Lannan’s done. 3-1 Chicago. Bergmann throws a high heater that bounces out of Bard’s glove to give Reed Johnson an extra base. Theriot K’s swinging through one of Bergmann’s patented slide pieces...Josh Willingham rolls a weak grounder toward first, and Cubs’ pitcher Angel Guzman makes the play and tag. Cristian Guzman flies out to Soriano in left. Josh Bard K’s trying, and it’s 3-1 Cubbies after seven.

Jason Bergmann makes an ill-advised return to mound in the eighth. Milton Bradley flies out to Nyjer Morgan in center. Derrek Lee rips a liner to third, Zim knocks it down and pockets it. Ground ball to short from Aramis Ramirez, Guzman to Alberto, to Nick Johnson at first, double play!!...Carlos Marmol vs Alberto Gonzalez. The General rolls a dribbler out to first. Ronnie Belliard at bat. Ronnie B. K’s chasing a slider. Nyjer Morgan takes a two-out walk, and then gets picked off to end the eighth.

Julian Tavarez vs soriANO? Leadoff walk. Sam Fuld singles through second to move Soriano to third. Koyie Hill singles to score Soriano and it’s 4-1 Cubs, Tavarez is done. Grounder back to the mound from pinch hitter Jake Fox and Sean Burnett bobbles it and tosses toward home too late, Fuld scores, 5-1 Cubs. Reed Johnson flies out to center after a wild pitch moves both runners up. Two down, Burnett out. Tyler Clippard gives up an RBI sac fly from Ryan Theriot to Willingham in right. 6-1 Cubs. Milton Bradley’s called out looking...Nick Johnson flies out to Sam Fuld in left. Ryan Zimmerman vs Kevin Gregg. Zimmerm...THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! Solo shot to right and over the wall, 6-2 Cubs on Zim’s dinger. Adam Dunn takes a one-out walk. Josh Willingham flies out to right. Cristian Guzman flies out to center to end the first game of the Riggleman era.

Cubs win, 6-2 final.

Nationals now 26-62.

GameThread: Chicago Cubs At Washington Nationals- Game 88 of 162.

2009-07-16T20:15:08Z

Next Game

Chicago Cubs
@ Washington Nationals

Thursday, Jul 16, 2009, 7:05 PM EDT
Nationals Park

Rich Harden vs John Lannan

Partly cloudy,rain. Game time temperature around 85.

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• DC's About To Be Invaded By Cubs Fans, Isn't It?

• So Can We Call Him Mr. Riggles?

• Can "Cool Hand" Lannan Beat The Cubbies?

• I'm Glad soriANO Left...I Never Liked Him Anyway...

• Soriano Or Dunn In Left? Who's The Best DC HR Hitter Ever?

• 11 Game Homestand...Predict It, Punk? How Many Wins?

• DC Starting Lineup...

Nyjer Morgan - CF
Nick "Two-Spot" Johnson - 1B
THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! - 3B
The Big Walky - LF
The Hammer - RF
The Guzzzz - SS
The Bard - C
Alberto "The General" Gonzalez - 2B
John "Cool Hand" Lannan - Eating 40 Eggs

• LINKS: DOGHOUSES: Doghouse Has Been Busy, Check These Out If You Haven't:

Nats Stats: How many runs should we expect?

posted by Doghouse about 6 hours ago

9 comments | 1 rec

Nats Stats: Who lost the W.A.R.?

posted by Doghouse 1 day ago

11 comments | 0 recs

Nats Stats: Midterm report card

posted by Doghouse 2 days ago

13 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

Today's Starting Pitchers Are Going To Stare At You Now...(Is Harden OK? That pose will hurt his neck...)

John "Cool Hand" Lannan

#31 / Pitcher / Washington Nationals

Height: 6-4

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Sep 27, 1984

'09 Stats - (6-6, 3.70 ERA), 18 GS, 1 CG, 112.0 IP, 117 H, 52 R, 46 ER, 39 BB, 50 K's, ERA+ = 117, 3.1 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 1.28 K/BB.

vs CHC - (2-0, 3.38 ERA), 2 GS, 13.1 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB, 6 K's, 1.35 WHIP, .229 BAA.

Origin Story - Washington Nationals' 11th Round pick, 324th overall in 2005.

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1981

'09 Stats - (5-6, 5.47 ERA), 14 GS, 74.0 IP, 78 H, 49 R, 45 ER, 16 HR, 36 BB, 83 K's, ERA+ = 81, 1.54 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, .271 BAA.

vs DC - (1-0, 1.29 ERA), 1 GS, 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K's, 0.29 WHIP, .087 BAA.

Origin Story - Oakland Athletics' 17th Round pick, 510th overall in 2000. Traded to Cubs w/ (RHP) Chad Gaudin for (RHP) Sean Gallagher, (OF) Matt Murton, (RHP) Josh Donaldson and (IF/OF) Eric Patterson.

The Cubs vs John Lannan...

Kosuke Fukudome - 1 for 2, .500 AVG, 1 2B.

Reed Johnson - 1 for 6, .167 AVG.

Derrek Lee - 2 for 5, .400 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI.

Aramis Ramirez - 0 for 6, .000 AVG.

Alfonso soriANO! - 0 for 2, Big Goose Egg.

Geovany Soto - 1 for 2, .500 AVG.

Ryan Theriot - 0 for 5, .000 AVG.

The Nationals vs Rich Harden...

Ronnie Belliard - 1 for 7, .167 AVG.

Adam Dunn - 0 for 2, .000 AVG.

Cristian Guzman - 0 for 6, .000 AVG.

Willie Harris - 0 for 8, .000 AVG.

Anderson Hernandez - 0 for 2, .000 AVG.

Nyjer Morgan - 3 for 4, .750 AVG.

Josh Willingham - 0 for 1, .000 AVG.

Ryan Zimmerman - 0 for 3, .000 AVG.

Strasburg vs Crow...

I probably would have been more concerned by the Stephen Strasburg quote in a recent Nationals Journal article by Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin, if I didn't remembered hearing Aaron, in an interview by Joseph Hamrahi at Baseball Digest Daily Live on 8/23/2008, shortly after the Washington Nationals had failed to sign their no.1 overall pick, state that he hadn't heard from the Nationals after the draft either, or as he put it in the interview:

"'Well, I mean, I talked to the general manager (then Jim Bowden) right after, like the day, (of the draft) he was just like 'Hey congratulations, we’re glad to have you' but then I didn’t hear back from him until for like the whole rest of that month, and you know, I never talked to him, it was mostly dealing with my agent and all that stuff, so, I mean it was not really trying to get something figured out right away. It was just like, 'Congratulations, we’re glad we picked you,' and just, they left it at that for the most part on draft day.'"

So when Strasburg says, as quoted by Mr Sheinin, "I haven't heard from the Nationals" since being selected in the draft, it doesn't worry me too much, since Mr. Sheinin also notes later in the article that, "'Acting' General Manager Mike Rizzo has been in frequent contact for weeks with the Strasburg's agent, Scott Boras..."

The Riggleman Era Begins...

Just so you know, in 90 games after taking over for the Seattle Mariners last season, Jim Riggleman was 36-54.

Ryan Zimmerman In The ASG (Go Ahead Click And Listen!!)

-- Ryan Zimmerman takes over at third for David Wright in the top of the fifth. Zimmerman gets his first AB with one out in the fifth against Edwin Jackson of the Tigers. Zimmerman flies out to The Rangers' Josh Hamilton in center.

-- 2 outs in 7th. Francisco Cordero gets a line drive from Justin Mourneau right into Ryan Zimmerman’s glove at third.

-- Zimmerman’s 2nd at bat of the night its against Joe Nathan and he flies out to Adam Jones in right for the second out.

Check the NatCast if you're heading to Nationals Park...

For A Cubs Fan's Perspective, Check Out The SBN's Chicago Cubs Blog:

Bleed Cubbie Blue

Who's Watching The Nationals?

SB Nation's Mid-Season NL EAST Roundtable...Washington Nationals Edition - Part 1.

2009-07-16T15:30:13Z

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Browse more photos »

Note: Over the last week or so, the SB Nation's NL East bloggers have been participating in a roundtable discussion about what we've all season in the first-half of the '09 campaign. The proceedings were moderated by Sky Kalkman of the SB Nation's Saber-Slanted Baseball Community Beyond the Box Score...(Thanks, Sky.)

The cast of characters:

• Moderator - Sky Kalkman - (Beyond the Box score)

Peter Baker (The Good Phight) - SBN Philadelphia Phillies blog

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop) - SBN Atlanta Braves blog

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue) - SBN New York Mets blog

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball) - SBN Washington Nationals blog

Craig Strain (Fish Stripes) - SBN Florida Marlins blog

• Part 1: Trade Deadline - (After The JUMP)...

• Part 1: Trade Deadline -

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): Unless the Nationals' "Acting" GM was trying to force potential buyers' hands last week when he said there would be no fire sale in Washington, a lot of the potential deals that have been discussed involving players on the DC roster might fail to materialize. Mr. Rizzo said unequivocally that Adam Dunn would not be traded and wondered aloud why anyone would want to trade Josh Willingham, and with no real major league ready first base prospect in the system, I'm really hoping they don't trade Nick Johnson, because even a half season with Adam Dunn at first gives me nightmares, and right now it's Dunn, Josh Willingham or they call up Brad Eldred from Triple A Syracuse...

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): Unless there is reasonable hope that a few of their injured stars will return soon, the Mets should be sellers at this season's trade deadline. That may be a tough thing to admit for a team with the highest payroll in the National League, but it's worth seeing what guys like Gary Sheffield, Pedro Feliciano and Francisco Rodriguez might bring back. I suppose if the Mets come back from the All-Star break and go on a nice winning streak that the priorities could change, but regardless of their proximity to first place I am never an proponent of trading a boatload of promising youngsters for a middling veteran who will add little real on-field value over the final two months of the season (see: DeRosa, Mark).

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): The Phillies are definitely buyers and have been linked with virtually every major trade target out there, which is a weird feeling for someone who has been a Phillies fan as long as I have. As I write this, Pedro Martinez is allegedly on his way to Philadelphia for a physical; while that's not "the answer" I think it's a creative solution for the back end of the rotation. I'd love to see them push big for Roy Halladay but fear how badly they'd have to gut the farm system in order to get him.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): Waiting and watching. The Marlins are four games out of first with a four game set against the Phillies immediately after the break. If when the smoke clears from that series and the Marlins are tied for first, they may be a buyer. However, if the Marlins are eight games out resulting from it, they will probably stand pat. If it turns out to be something in between, the Fish would be cautious but shopping.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): If the Mets wind up buying at the deadline, their needs will be dictated by the names on their disabled list. If Carlos Delgado is no closer to returning, then a potent bat at first base should be at the top of their wish list. Alex Cora's weaknesses (his hitting and fielding, e.g.) have been exposed by regular playing time, and the Mets could use someone a little better in the event that Jose Reyes isn't ready to return. Same story with Carlos Beltran. Jeremy Reed and Angel Pagan likely aren't going to be comforting answers to the question, "How do you replace the best all-around centerfielder in baseball?" The truth is they could use a guy like Ryan Church, who is better suited to a corner spot but won't embarrass himself defensively in center (and his bat plays better there anyway). Do you think the Braves would consider dealing him for someone like Jeff Francoeur? Nah, they're not stupid.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): If the Nationals are going to insist on keeping Austin Kearns on the roster, it would be nice if he stepped up as one of the players who could provide help from within the organization...that's looking less and less likely though as he's been reduced to a late-inning defensive replacement...an expensive one...the biggest change of all could come from within if they simply cut down on the errors. 82 first-half errors? And it's obscene how many of those errors directly led to losses. The Nationals have plenty of young starters in the system, but they're lacking in legitimate outfielders and major-league-ready bullpen arms. Any moves this season will be bringing back young relief pitching I'd suspect, and Mr. Rizzo likes sinker-ballers...

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): The Braves are going to be buyers if they do anything, but they may stand pat. They don't have a lot left in the minors that they want to trade, and there doesn't seem to be anything on the market that really fits their needs -- a big middle of the order bat who is affordable. I can see the team getting another arm for the bullpen, as they have been overused quite a bit and could benefit from a fresh arm.

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): The Phillies need another starting pitcher, and ideally a right-handed bench bat. Every late game, high-leverage Eric Bruntlett at-bat gives me a sad.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): The Marlins front office is looking for a closer and/or some more bullpen help. What they should be doing is demoting Bonifacio and fixing the hole that he creates, both in the field and at the plate. Third base can be fixed internally by calling up Gaby Sanchez to replace Bonifacio.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): I was already laying the groundwork for a Nick Johnson to San Francisco for Jonathan Sanchez rumor since Sanchez was struggling all season and a Johnson deal seems regrettably inevitable, then Sanchez had to go and ruin it with his no-hitter this week. I can't think of an instance of a pitcher with a no-hitter being traded in the same year he threw a no-no...unless you count DC starter (currently Triple A Syracuse starter) Shairon Martis, who threw a rule-shortened no-no in the '06 WBC and was traded to Washington that summer...

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): The above-named Roy Halladay, and I'd like to see them inquire with the Reds about Aaron Harang, too.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): Adam Dunn's name is always out there; that he has the flexibility to play both first base and left field -- albeit poorly in both cases -- makes him attractive in Delgado's absence. Victor Martinez would be a nice get, as he could help them at first for the remainder of this season and at catcher beyond 2009.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): The most mentioned on the reliever front has been Matt Capps, but Pittsburgh doesn't want what the Marlins are offering and Capps wants to stay with the Pirates.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): The Braves have traded away an entire starting lineup of prospects over the past two years, and the result is most of their prospects are lower in the minors and probably not useful as trade chips. The two top guys, Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, are so far off-limits it's not funny.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): The Nationals already moved a 24-year-old outfielder, Lastings Milledge, who has now quickly fallen out of favor with two organizations...I don't think the Nationals will be moving prospects, the system is just approaching being rebuilt. I'd expect if the Mets try to go for Nick Johnson they'll have to part with some of their young pitchers...Omar Minaya already traded for him once?

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): J.A. Happ has been mentioned in about half of the Roy Halladay trade scenarios, with Kyle Drabek the centerpiece in the other half. One of more of solid Triple-A prospects Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald are likely to go in any trade. I can't really imagine any of the regulars being traded but for a major multi-team blockbuster of some kind.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): Fernando Martinez's name always comes up, but if the Mets didn't part with him for Johan Santana I can't see them doing so for anyone else. LHP Jon Niese is pitching really well in Triple-A and should really be with the Mets right now, but Mets management is inept so I can't say I'd be surprised to see him dealt for some well-traveled spare part.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton are untouchable.

• Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Why he heck would the Braves be looking to trade Javier Vazquez? Sure, they need offense, but without him, they don't have a shot at the playoffs, do they?

Martin Gandy (Talking Chop): Should I take this one? I'll take this one... The Braves need a big bat, on the order of Teixeira or close. The Braves also have Tim Hudson coming back from injury, and that leaves them with a potential for 6 starters for next season (Vazquez, Hudson, Jurrjens, Lowe, Kawakami, and Hanson). The consensus is that Vazquez has done nothing but increase his trade value quite a bit since coming over for essentially one top-prospect (Tyler Flowers). There are so many teams that need a top starter that the Braves may have the opportunity to get better than excellent return for Vazquez, and with Hudson returning not lose that much in the rotation. This gets even more interesting if the other top two starters with the potential to get traded, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, are taken off the market. GM Frank Wren just might get an offer he can't refuse. My thought would be a top prospect, a major league bat, and another solid prospect.

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): I wish the Expos/Nationals had never traded Vazquez, though I wouldn't have been able to watch Nick Johnson these last years...

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): I don't know why the Braves would trade Vazquez. You win games by preventing runs and/or scoring them. Vazquez has been terrific so far, he's obviously found some kind of comfortable niche, and I think it'd be dumb to disrupt that. It's easier to find good hitters than good pitchers.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): I'm with Martin here. Vazquez's value is very high right now and the if the Braves don't think they'll compete down the stretch this year it behooves them to test the market because they do expect to have Tim Hudson back next year. I can't see Frank Wren moving someone as productive as Vazquez unless he's blown away, however, so smart money is probably on him staying put.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): TBS doesn't show the Braves games anymore, so how the heck should I know.

•Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Ed Chigliak (Federal Baseball): I'll be brief and get out of the way so the teams with actual playoff prospects can discuss this...There's no way DC wins the division or makes the playoffs. The Nationals may, however provide someone with the impact player they're looking for...

Peter Baker (The Good Phight): At this point, stay the course and hope they don't get injured, while simultaneously hoping that none of the Mets, Braves, or Marlins get hot. Any one of them could, but it's really the Phillies' race to lose at this point.

Eric Simon (Amazin' Avenue): All of their injured players need to come back and perform. It's as simple as that. I think 2009 is a lost cause for the Mets and they should probably start selling off whatever parts have value.

Craig Strain (FishStripes): If the Marlins stand pat, and fix a couple of problems internally, that is about as good of a chance as they have to make the playoffs. And oh, figure out how to beat the Braves.

End Part 1...Part 2 Release Pending...

Nationals News, Fresh Start Edition

2009-07-16T13:57:45Z

Let me begin with a prediction: the Nationals will announce that they've signed Stephen Strasburg when it looks like the team is backsliding again (oh, and another prediction: it will). They haven't signed him yet not because they aren't interested or the negotiations are hard, but because they need to space out the few bright spots they know are coming to maintain interest in the team. They've generated press by trading for Morgan and Burnett, and more recently by firing Manny and hiring Riggleman, so they're going to hold off on signing Strasburg until they feel the fans need another boost. We'll see if I'm right.

Now, on to the news!

If you plan on parking at RFK to see the Cubs series, parking will be in lot 7 rather than lot 8.

It seems that the Nationals are trying to come to grips with the fact that they got their boss fired. At least Nick Johnson has it right: "We're getting our [butts] kicked every night."

Although I was less than impressed with Riggleman's press conference, he also, according to the Washington Times, "vowed to remove whatever sheen of nonchalance exists around losses as they pile up." That's the kind of attitude the Nats' manager needs right now, though I'm not quite convinced yet.

Over at the Post, Chico Harlan put together a smattering of fact...erings about Riggleman, while Thomas Boswell wrote about the DC connection to Riggleman.

No jump today, as there really isn't news of any consequence... anywhere, except that Pedro Martinez is returning to the bigs with the Phillies. I, for one, am excited to see him play again.

Finally, something to keep in mind: most teams fight to make the playoffs. The Nationals are fighting to avoid the worst record in the history of modern baseball. I've recently resigned myself to that fact, and I have a feeling it'll make this season a lot more bearable.

My goal is: I want to beat up on every single team the way we got beat up on the first half.

2009-07-16T13:01:43Z

My goal is: I want to beat up on every single team the way we got beat up on the first half.

Adam Dunn, via WaTimes. Let's go Nats.

The Washington Nationals' "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo On Good, Prudent Baseball Deals, And Playing Every Day, All Season.

2009-07-16T02:29:29Z

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

21 days ago: Washington Nationals catcher Josh Bard, center, bench coach Jim Riggleman, left, and teammates leave the field after a 9-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in a baseball game Thursday, June 25, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Browse more photos »

(ed. note - "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo was on Sirius/XM's Inside Pitch with hosts Jeff Joyce and Joel Sherman on Monday to talk about Manny Acta's dismissal, Jim Riggleman's move to "Interim" Manager and what the future holds for the lineup in the second-half... Here are some of the highlights or noteable quotes..."):

Read Part One w/ Comments From the DC Faithful...(Complete Post After The Jump)...

Top Quote:

Mike Rizzo: "We've already made what I believe is a good, prudent baseball deal by getting Nyjer Morgan to be our everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter and getting a good young controllable bullpen arm in Sean Burnett. We're going to continue to speak to other general managers, and try and improve the club not only in the short term but looking forward into the long term, and certainly, signing all of our 2009 draft picks, including Stephen Strasburg..."

Complete Post And Notes After The Jump...

Part I...

Riggleman's Future...

Rizzo: "I have the greatest respect for Jim, I think he's a great baseball guy, and uh, you know, he certainly would be a candidate for the full-time position. What it's gonna take for him? I just need to see the team play the game the right way. For them to continue to play the game hard, stress fundamentals, be more fundamentally sound, keep the team focused, have the players take accountability for their performance on the field and their preparation, and to continue the developmental process of, specifically, our young starting pitching and our good young core players."

Biggest Disappointment...?

Rizzo: "Well probably the biggest disappointment and the most unanticipated part of it is our poor defense. Even good defensive players such as Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman, who is, you know, Gold Glove caliber at third base, have made their fair share of errors. And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times...but I would think defense has been very troubling, because it not only effects your young core of starting pitching and it effects your bullpen also by giving...it's just so tough in this game and especially in the National League East to give up extra outs to teams and we've been burnt many, many times by giving up extra outs..."

What Are You Trying To Find Out In Second-Half...?

Rizzo: "I think you have a young good-looking, controllable player in Josh Willingham, he's a 29-year-old player, playing on an everyday basis and really coming into his own, I think he's got a strong future here. Alberto Gonzalez, we have to find out if he's an everyday middle infielder in the major leagues or not. He's hitting .327-ish I think as we speak right now in limited at bats. We have to find what is the role for Anderson Hernandez?...The second-half of the season we're going to be doing further evaluations of our roster...and as the season progresses, Elijah Dukes will be back in the major leagues and we will, we'll certainly see what type of player we have there on an everyday basis. It's an evaluation process, so we can go into the offseason and the winter and make good prudent baseball decisions."

Part II

Anyone going to see an increase in playing time with Riggleman?

I don't forsee any major changes in personnel. Like I said, I think there's going to be an emphasis put on playing the game the right way...continue to stress fundamentals and to prepare and stay focused throughout the course of not only a nine inning game but over the course of the entire season. That's what we need to stress.

Trades? Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns? Willingham? Sign Strasburg? How do the Nationals build for the future?

Well, I think those are certainly vital components of what we're trying to do in the future. I think that from now until the trade deadline we're going to be extremely busy. We're not, I'm not forced to dump salary which really unties the general manager's hands, you can make good prudent baseball-based deals at the trade deadline. So we're going to be active in that market. We've already made what I believe is a good, prudent baseball deal by getting Nyjer Morgan to be our everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter and getting a good young controllable bullpen arm in Sean Burnett. We're going to continue to speak to other general managers, and try and improve the club not only in the short term but looking forward into the long term, and certainly, signing all of our 2009 draft picks, including Stephen Strasburg, is an important part of the rebuilding of the franchise.

What type of manager is best suited for the Nationals the way they're built?

I think with any young ballclub, you need, specifically a ballclub that's learning at the major league level, you need to have a manager that's a teacher...that's a developer and knows and has been through the rigors of developing young players at the major league level...So, that's a very important aspect of the manager's job at this particular time, at this particular organization. So, I think a teacher that's developed players before and knows what it takes to prepare yourself not only to play a full game in the major leagues but a full season.

My Notes:

• Making good prudent deals and preparing every night and all season, very important.

• Dukes coming back? When? Soon? Please?

• If you're going to take a long look at Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez, what's Guzman going to do?

• You're not kidding about "being burnt many, many times" by the costly errors...

• DNTNJ!!!! Don't trade Nick Johnson...Sign him up, please?

Poll

What's Your Opinion Of "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo?

Nats Introduce Riggleman as Manager

2009-07-15T22:57:29Z

Nats Introduce Riggleman as Manager

Since I was credentialed for Nats News Network today, I'll simply post the link to my story about the press conference introducing Jim Riggleman as skipper of your Washington Nationals.

Let me know if you find anything in his quotes that inspires confidence that things might turn around this season.

Nats Stats: How many runs should we expect?

2009-07-15T20:27:12Z

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Math gives me pain in the brain!

Browse more photos »

So, as we were puzzling over the mathematically-inexplicable suckitude of the Nats yesterday, commenter Graysnail wondered out loud what the Nats' situational run expectancy looked like. Don't worry, ye stats-averse, this isn't as complex as the name sounds. It's the number of runs you score (on average) starting from a given number of outs and men on base. For example, the average team scores 2.27 runs before ending the inning if they have the bases loaded and no outs. The run expectancy with bases-loaded, no outs is 2.27. Here is Baseball Prospectus' Run Expectancy for the 2009 season so far (including both AL and NL teams):

On Base	no out	1 out	2 out
---	0.52	0.28	0.10
1--	0.88	0.55	0.23
-2-	1.12	0.69	0.31
--3	1.30	0.96	0.40
12-	1.48	0.93	0.46
1-3	1.77	1.19	0.57
-23	2.01	1.42	0.59
123	2.27	1.57	0.78

After a big data dump from baseball-reference and a bit of SQL, I'll give you the same for the Nats so far this season after the jump:

On Base	no out	1 out	2 out
---	0.47	0.25	0.08
1--	0.77	0.42	0.14
-2-	1.10	0.67	0.30
--3	0.33	0.81	0.40
12-	1.69	0.74	0.37
1-3	2.00	0.97	0.20
-23	1.90	1.44	0.17
123	1.89	1.29	0.47

Before you scream too loudly about the inability to score from 3rd with no outs, keep in mind that's based on only three instances. The "insufficient stats" problem for some of the no-out cases aside, the bases-loaded failures that are so prominent in our memories seem to be real. The Nats score 0.3 fewer runs than the average team with the bases loaded. Most of the other combinations are fairly close to average (within 0.2 runs), and some are slightly better--runners first-and-second or first-and-third with no outs, for example. The Nats do seem to be consistently below average with multiple men on base and two outs. I'm not sure how much the results of the baseline run expectancy gets skewed from having both AL and NL mixed together, and I might have a go at figuring an NL-only run expectancy if I can get the baseball-reference data hamsters to spin out the data.

So, what does it mean? Aside from "MOAR RUNZ PLZ," I'm not sure--but I thought I'd share with the class.

The Washington Nationals' "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo On Riggleman, Team Defense And The Second Half...

2009-07-15T17:15:09Z

More photos » by Gerald Herbert - AP

about 1 month ago: Washington Nationals assistant general manager and vice president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, right, introduces pitcher Drew Storen, the team's first-round draft pick and 10th pick overall in the baseball draft during a news conference at Nationals Stadium in Washington, on Wednesday, June 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Browse more photos »

Riggleman's Future...

Rizzo: "I have the greatest respect for Jim, I think he's a great baseball guy, and uh, you know, he certainly would be a candidate for the full-time position. What it's gonna take for him? I just need to see the team play the game the right way. For them to continue to play the game hard, stress fundamentals, be more fundamentally sound, keep the team focused, have the players take accountability for their performance on the field and their preparation, and to continue the developmental process of, specifically, our young starting pitching and our good young core players."

Biggest Disappointment...?

MORE AFTER THE JUMP...

Biggest Disappointment?:

Rizzo: "Well probably the biggest disappointment and the most unanticipated part of it is our poor defense. Even good defensive players such as Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman, who is, you know, Gold Glove caliber at third base, have made their fair share of errors. And it's really tough to put your finger on what it is, uh specifically, it kind of like snowballs on us and we just don't execute at times...but I would think defense has been very troubling, because it not only effects your young core of starting pitching and it effects your bullpen also by giving...it's just so tough in this game and especially in the National League East to give up extra outs to teams and we've been burnt many, many times by giving up extra outs..."

What Are You Trying To Find Out In Second-Half...?

Rizzo: "I think you have a young good-looking controllable player in Josh Willingham, he's a 29-year-old player, playing on an everyday basis and really coming into his own, I think he's got a strong future here. Alberto Gonzalez, we have to find out if he's an everyday middle infielder in the major leagues or not. He's hitting .327-ish I think as we speak right now in limited at bats. We have to find what is the role for Anderson Hernandez?...The second-half of the season we're going to be doing further evaluations of our roster...and as the season progresses, Elijah Dukes will be back in the major leagues and we will, we'll certainly see what type of player we have there on an everyday basis. It's an evaluation process, so we can go into the offseason and the winter and make good prudent baseball decisions."

(ed. note - "More later this afternoon...")

Nats Most Unlucky Team in MLB

2009-07-15T15:35:26Z

Nats Most Unlucky Team in MLB

Furthering Doghouse's WAR theory that the 2009 Washington Nationals are so bad they defy mathmatical analysis, Fangraphs attempts to explain just how unlucky the Nats have been, to go along with how, you know, actually bad they really are.

Nationals News, No Baseball Today Edition

2009-07-15T14:09:16Z

Unlike Monday, when we at least had the Home Run Derby, there will be zero major league baseball played today! At all! What am I supposed to do when I get home from work?!

Thomas Boswell reports that very little progress has been made on signing Stephen Strasburg. Though Mike Rizzo has been in contact with Scott Boras for the past few weeks, they've only sent over a minor league contract. Still, I'm willing to bet money that the Nationals sign him before the deadline.

Dave Nichols, from Nationals News Network, has put together a pretty scathing review of the Nationals' front office. And it's spot on, in my opinion.

Apparently, the Nationals haven't been talking with former Atlanta pitching coach Leo Mazzone, although Steve McCatty's contract does not go beyond this year.

To no one's surprise, Stephen Strasburg won the Golden Spikes award, the equivalent of the Heisman trophy. There's a video there as well, in which Stephen keeps talking about how much he loves Fenway... hmmmmmmm...

Obama cracked a Nationals joke yesterday, in the All-Star Game's pressbox. It's okay, though, as long as he promises to go to a game before the end of the season.

Jim Riggleman has broken a number of young pitchers. Uh oh...

More All-Star related news after the jump...

Mariano Rivera earned his record fourth All-Star Game save last night. Not bad at all for a 39 year old!

In case you missed it, President Obama threw the first pitch last night, which, according to his catcher Albert Pujols, didn't touch the ground.

Although Chone Figgins was selected to the All-Star squad to replace Evan Longoria, he didn't play, so he couldn't do the Ozzie Smith backflip as he had promised. :(

Potomac Nationals Weekly Update. 7/14 - Dmitri Young GOES DEEP!!!

2009-07-15T05:00:03Z

DY GOES DEEEP! Potomac Nationals beat Lynchburg Hillcats...Dmitri Young's HR helps beat Lastings Milledge and the Hillcats...3-2 final. I wrote a note to Anthony Masterson, (Broadcast/Media Assistant with the Class-A Carolina League's Potomac Nationals), when I realized this morning that Dmitri Young was going to be playing for the P-Nats, to ask if he could send a quick note to let me know how DY had done in the game. (ed. note - "In an article at Potomac's official site entitled, "Dmitri Young to join Potomac Tuesday", Mr. Masterson explained the DY was moving around the affiliates so that he could get "consistent at bats..."). I got a response about the P-Nats' win early this afternoon, reporting that Young had gone 1 for 3 with a walk, a HR and 1 RBI. The P-Nats took a 3-2 decision on an RBI single by Jesus Valdez that scored pinch runner Brian Peacock in the bottom of the eighth after he'd come on to run for Chris Marrero, who had reached on an error before he was replaced on the basepaths. DY's HR was called "titanic" in Anthony Masterson's post game report entitled, "Forever Young: Dmitri's Blast Propels P-Nats", and in the note he sent along he joked, "I'm not sure if it's landed yet." DY!!! (ed. note - "Milledge was 1 for 5 with a double and an RBI.")

DY!! DY!!! DY!!!

GameThread: 2009 MLB All-Star Game...Featuring: Washington Nationals' Third Baseman, Ryan Zimmerman.

2009-07-14T23:01:34Z

2009 NL All-Star Ryan Zimmerm-- THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

#11 / Third Base / Washington Nationals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 28, 1984

'09 Stats - 100 for 347, .288 AVG, 22 2B, 14 HR, 52 RBI's, 37 BB, 70 K's, .354 OBP, .473 SLG, .827 OPS, 117 OPS+, 16 GIDP, 12 E's, UZR/150 - 16.8, WAR - 3.2.

Origin Story - Washington Nationals' 1st 1st Round Pick, 4th overall in 2005.

Washington Nationals - All-Star History...After the JUMP...

Washington Nationals - All-Star History...

(continued from 7/7/08 All-Star Post)...

In 2005, for Detroit's All-Star Game, there were two Nationals selected as reserves, with DC's Flat-Brimmed Closer Chad Cordero, who entered the Break in '05 with a (2-1) record, 31 saves in 46 games, and 47.2 innings pitched over which he'd allowed just 37 hits, 6 ER, 4 HR's and 12 walks with 42 K's and a 1.13 ERA, and Livan Hernandez, the former Mr. National Himself, who was, at the time of his selection, (12-3) in 19 starts, with a 3.48 ERA and 78 K's in 134.1 innings on the mound for the relocated franchise.

In '06, Washington, (and baseball fans everywhere, who voted him a starter), sent reluctant DC outfielder Alfonso Soriano to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania's PNC Park as the Nationals' (thus far) lone "elected" All-Star representative. After 81 games that season, Soriano had collected 93 hits in 338 at bats, for a .275 AVG, with 24 doubles, 21 HR's, 56 RBI's, 10 stolen bases, and (in one of the rare instances where the term "irony" could, possibly, be correctly applied), a League-leading 12 outfield assists, though most of those were because opposing coaches continued to test his arm throughout his first season in the outfield.

Last season, Washington first baseman Dmitri Young was a surprising selection when he was added as a reserve for San Francisco's turn as the ASG host city in July of 2007. DY had been written off by many after he'd flamed out in Detroit and actually been released by the Tigers a year earlier, but then Da Meat Hook hooked up with Washington and set about rejuvenating his Major League career. At the time of his selection, DY was hitting .339, with 96 hits in 283 at bats over 81 games, in which he'd collected 23 doubles, 1 triple, 8 HR's and 43 RBI's.

Chad Cordero struck out the only batter he faced in the '05 ASG. Earlier in that game, Livan Hernandez, (who had been selected in '04 as an Expo, but did not pitch), gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 1.0 inning of work for the NL squad. Alfonso Soriano was 1 for 2 with a single in the '06 All-Star game, and DY was 1 for 1 in his only at bat in '07. In 2008, Cristian Guzman, representing Washington in NY, was called upon to pinch run in the ninth, much to the delight of the DC Faithful, and then to our horror he was caught stealing on a strike'em out, throw'em out, but he stayed in the game, (for six innings), playing third (by neccessity, for the first time in his career) and going 0 for 3...

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• Will The Kid Get In The Game?

• Do You Think We'll See Zim At Third, Or Just A PH Appearance?

• Should Zim Have Been The Nationals' All-Star?

• Do You Think Being Amongst All-Stars Might Kickstart Zim's 2nd Half?

• DP or E? Will Zim Ground Into Or Commit One?

• Livan, Chief, soriANO!, DY, Guz, Zim? Who Was The Most Deserving DC All-Star?

Nats Stats: Who lost the W.A.R.?

2009-07-14T22:09:20Z

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

"Pitching is easy, kid. Math is hard."

Browse more photos »

Those of you paying attention in the off-season may recall the FederalBaseball.com W.A.R. Effort, an attempt to project out the Nationals' 2009 record using Wins Above Replacement (W.A.R.) calculations. We argued about lineups and playing time, looked at projections for hitters and pitchers, then plugged it into a big spreadsheet. The answer we got was that the Nats should manage around 75 wins in 2009, with a 99% chance of getting 61 or more wins. As we're now on a pace for 50ish wins, it seems that we were wrong. Quite wrong. Exceptionally, overwhelmingly, soul-ravagingly wrong. How did we miss so wildly?

After the jump, we'll take a look at what we got wrong (bullpen, fielding), what we got right (almost nothing), and what still doesn't make any sense (the Nats are worse than my math can calculate). Remember to show your work for partial credit!

But first, a quick aside...

Let me outline the idea behind W.A.R. The basic concept of "replacement level" is a player who's freely available on the waiver wire or from AAA--someone a team can pick up on the cheap to replace an injured starter. There's some debate in the stat community about exactly what replacement level means, but figure that a team made up of "replacement level" players is a AAAA team, and will win about 48 games in the NL (starting to look familiar?). Anyhow, the idea is that you compare a player's hitting/pitching stats and playing time (or their projected stats and playing time, if you're trying to look ahead) to "replacement level" to come up with a number of extra runs scored/saved. These runs turn into "wins above replacement" (or "below" replacement for some... I'm looking at you, Daniel Cabrera!). Add up the total W.A.R. for everyone on the team with the baseline wins for a replacement-level team, and you get the wins on the season. Of course, this is an average number, and the number of wins will probably be higher or lower by some amount.

Are we talking about the same team?

Back in the final W.A.R. update, I had a projection of 76.9 wins on average. Even I was a little suspicious over whether we could pull that off, but I figured we were a lock for at least 70. Adding up the projected playing time, plus projections for hitting, pitching, and fielding, I figured we were looking at a total of 28.4 Wins Above Replacement. Of those, 19.8 WAR came from the position players, almost all from hitting (I had us losing about 0.1 WAR from fielding, and gaining something like 0.05 WAR from baserunning). The other 8.6 WAR came from the pitchers, with 6.5 from the starters and 2.1 from the relievers.

We can check out our current WAR values at a stat site like fangraphs, which calculates WAR (it's a counting stat) as the season goes along, based on playing time, hitting, fielding, and pitching. As of July 13, our position players have generated a total of 8.7 WAR, 12.0 from batting and -3.3 from fielding. Compare to my projection of 10.6 WAR after 87 games, all from hitting: we're actually hitting almost 1.5 wins better than I'd projected, but our fielding is more than 3 wins worse! That puts us almost 2 wins off of the projected pace already. As for the pitching... Well, so far we only have 3.2 WAR from pitching, 4.0 from the starters and -0.7 from the bullpen. I was projecting 4.6 WAR from pitching at this point (split about 75-25 between rotation and pen), so there's another 1.5 wins gone! Even so, that puts us at 11.9 WAR (versus my prediction of 15.3 after 87 games). That's 38 wins after 87 games. The Nats have 26.

What's going on, here? We already know that the Nats' "Pythagorean" record has them at 33 wins, so they're already at least 7 games' worth of unlucky. WAR is also a calculation of average number of wins. You'd expect to be above or below that number most of the time. In fact, if our inputs to the WAR spreadsheet were right, we'd expect a record of between 66 and 81 wins 90% of the time (10% it would be either more than 81 or less than 66)--call it plus or minus 8 wins, which would be plus-or-minus 4 wins after 87 games. But even the Pythagorean 33 wins is just outside that 90% confidence interval with 38 wins from WAR. The Nats are either unlucky to a statistically-unlikely degree, or they stink in some way that Wins Above Replacement can't model. I don't know what the answer is, but it seems to me that both factors probably play a role (WAR calculations are an inexact science at best, and who's more snakebitten than the Nats?).

Did you get anything right?

Who, me? The guy who predicted 450-500 PA for Jesus Flores, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge? I'm amazed I got as close as I did. Happily, several Nats did much better than I predicted:

Even injured, Jesus Flores has been worth 1.0 WAR in limited playing time--I had him at 0.4 WAR over the season. Moral? Have a season-ending injury while your bat is hot!
Zimm the Elder is worth his moneys. His hot bat and hotter glove are worth 3.2 WAR so far this season (ahead of my projection of 2.6 at this point).
Willingham has been a pleasant surprise: his 2.2 WAR is second only to RZim thanks to a hot bat and league-average glove (I had him at +1.0 WAR on the season with limited playing time).
NJ is about the only thing I've gotten right, with 1.5 WAR so far against my projected 1.6 (his fielding slightly worse this season than I projected).
Zimm the Younger's +1.7 WAR in a half a season is as good or better than I was projecting for any starter over the whole season. Stammen's +1.0 ain't bad, either. Lannan's +0.7 is off the pace (+0.9) I had for him.

Sadly (but predictably), many Nats did worse:

Dunn is not like a box of chocolates: +2.9 WAR with the bat, -2.2 WAR with the glove...
How did I ever believe Cabrera would be worth 1.7 WAR over the season? Instead, he's cost the Nats -0.4 in limited playing time.
Elijah Dukes was another disappointment: -0.5 WAR in limited playing time, when I was quite rationally calling for +2.5 over the season.
Beimel is best in the bullpen at +0.1 WAR... everyone else is replacement-level or worse. But you knew that.

What have we learned?

Aside from, "don't go to Vegas with Doghouse"? I think we may be running into limitations of the WAR approach: it may work best for a team this isn't too bad in any one area. You can assign a win value to each part of the club and add 'em up. But if you have a team with, say, really bad defense and a really bad bullpen, it may have a disproportionately bad effect on the number of wins. You can't just add up the bullpen, rotation, and hitters anymore--some awful synergy takes over and applies the '62 Mets Factor to all of your results. In short, it seems that the badness of the 2009 Nats defies mathematical analysis!

I'll revisit this at the end of the season when we have full-year performance and playing time, and see if the WAR calculations hold up any better then.

Why I fell in love with Adam Dunn (and why he should have been in the Derby)

2009-07-14T19:45:08Z

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Browse more photos »

Prior to last night's Home Run Derby, I was not a fan of Adam Dunn. I couldn't understand why the Nationals would keep paying a player with 10 errors already this season, despite his .266/.398/.544 line. It seemed to me that for the money the Nationals were paying him, they could find an outfielder with slightly worse batting statistics but significantly better fielding abilities.

After watching the Derby, I (think I) understand what the Nationals are trying to do. Mike Rizzo has made it clear that Adam Dunn will not be traded, and that makes a lot of sense. Having a slugger like Adam Dunn generates fan interest in the Nationals and builds confidence in the clubhouse. Prince Fielder, despite being just 25, is seen as a leader in the Brewers' organization -- why would the Nationals expect anything less of Dunn? He's 29, older than all of the Nationals' starting pitchers, older than "face of the franchise" Ryan Zimmerman, so why shouldn't they expect him to step up and lead the team?

What I don't understand, though, is why Dunn wasn't invited to the show off his skills in St. Louis. For purposes of argument, I compared Dunn with the eight players selected for the Derby. Of those nine players, Dunn ranks fourth in home runs (23), fourth in RBI (62), second in walks (68), fifth in average (.266), fourth in OBP (.398), fourth in slugging percentage (.544) and fourth in OPS (.943). He's fifth in the majors in home runs. Sure, he doesn't lead in any category, but his numbers are better than many of the players that were selected. Participation in the All-Star Game is not a requirement to hit in the Derby, so why wouldn't MLB just select the top eight home run hitters and let them have at it? Here's what the field would have looked like if they had:

1.) Albert Pujols (STL), 32 home runs
2.) Adrian Gonzalez (SD), 24 home runs
3.) Carlos Pena (TB), 24 home runs
4.) Mark Reynolds (ARI), 24 home runs
5.) Adam Dunn (WAS), 23 home runs
6.) Russell Branyan (SEA), 22 home runs
7.) Nelson Cruz (TEX), 22 home runs
8.) Prince Fielder (MIL), 22 home runs

Arizona, Washington and San Diego combine for a record of 100-164, or .379 baseball. Seeing a hometown player hit in the Derby would do wonders for bringing attention back to teams at the bottom of the league. Fans would start going to games again, watch the games on TV (the Nationals averaged just 8000 viewers per game last year) and generating very valuable revenue for the team. I'm not saying it's MLB's responsibility to generate interest in bad teams (rather, it's the team's responsibility to be good), but I am saying that going by statistics would have had that effect. As long as the Home Run Derby is an event nominally based on an objective statistic, Major League Baseball should look only at the numbers.

Potomac Nationals Weekly Update. Nationals' Prospect Boomer Whiting Interview.

2009-07-14T17:43:08Z

• (ed. note - "Over the last few weeks, Anthony Masterson (Broadcast/Media Assistant with the Class-A Carolina League's Potomac Nationals), has sent us interviews with some of the P-Nats' players, including (1B) Chris Marrero, and (C) Sean Rooney. This time, Mr. Masterson sat down with Potomac outfielder Boomer Whiting, 26, the Nationals' 28th Round pick, 850th overall in the 2007 Draft. Boomer Whiting leads the P-Nats and is second overall in the Carolina League with 38 steals in 68 games in which Whiting has hit .244 AVG with a .340 OBP, .323 SLG, .663 OPS, 11 2B, 2 HR's, 11 RBI's, and the 38 SB vs 5 CS. With two more steals, according to Mr. Masterson, Whiting will pass Ian Desmond for the franchise lead in stolen bases, which Mr. Desmond set over 276 games in 3 stints in Potomac in 2005, '06 and '07. Whiting's played in 111 games with the P-Nats.")

AUDIO: Potomac Nationals Weekly Update - Boomer Whiting Interview - Anthony Masterson. (Length: 5:20)

• Quote From The Interview:

Q: Anthony Masterson - "What are some of your favorite ways to make the pitcher just focus on you and forget about the batter at home plate?"

A: Boomer Whiting: "Well you know, that's, that is my favorite thing to do, is uh, get into the pitcher's head, you know, it really distracts them and helps out the guy, whoever is hitting behind you. You can do it the most on second base or even on third base cause on third base they think you're a non-factor, but um, with uh, (P-Nats' Manager )Trent's (Jewett's) aggressive style of play we've stolen home a couple time this year and I know that I've been itching to do that..."

Potomac Nationals Weekly Update Archives: (After The Jump)...

Potomac Nationals Weekly Update Archive:

• 7/8 Sean Rooney Interview by Anthony Masterson.

• 6/29 - Chris Marrero Interview by Anthony Masterson.

• 6/15 - Stephen King, Will Atwood.

• 6/5 - Cole Kimball, Sean Rooney.

• 5/25 - Chris Marrero, Jeff Mandel, Sean Rooney.

• 5/17 - Tom Milone, Michael Burgess, Chris Marrero.

• 5/12 - Sean Rooney, Francisco Plasencia, Erik Arnesen, Brad Meyers and Jeff Mandel.

• 5/5 - Dan Nelson, Erik Arnesen.

Nationals News, Home Run Derby Edition

2009-07-14T14:25:44Z

With no (real) baseball being played yesterday, I thought this morning would be a slow one for Nationals News, but I was mistaken. I guess that's what happens when the manager gets fired!

Chico Harlan, of the Post, has put together a good summary of what's going on with Manny Acta.

MLB Trade Rumors did a piece on relievers, but didn't mention the Nationals as a team that needs help in the bullpen. How about the Nationals trading for Cla Meredith or, even better, Heath Bell?

John Taylor has made a list of all those in the Nationals organization who have lost their jobs. The number is preeeeetty impressive...

Over at Nationals Pride, Jim Kurtzke has placed blame for the Nationals' horrendous record squarely on the shoulders of Jim Bowden.

More on the rest of the league (or really, just Albert Pujols) after the jump...

President Obama will be throwing out the first pitch tonight at the All-Star Game, and who better to catch for him than hometown hero Albert Pujols

Pujols also made news by insisting that he doesn't take performance enhancing drugs, welcoming tests in the offseason. Baseball must make absolutely sure that PEDs aren't being used anymore, so it's good to hear that superstars like Pujols are asking to be tested.

Pardon The Blunt Assessment: Michael Wilbon And Bob Ryan On The Washington Nationals Firing Manny Acta...

2009-07-14T03:08:02Z

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

27 days ago: Washington Nationals' manager Manny Acta gestures as they leave the dugout after winning 2-1 in eleven innings over the Toronto Blue Jays, Friday, June 19, 2009, in Washington. Nationals bench coach Jim Riggleman, right, looks on. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Browse more photos »

Just thought we'd start with the public perception of your Washington Nationals, and what better place to look for a lightning-quick assessement of the image DC's favorite baseball team is projecting to the world outside the so-called "Natosphere", (which for those who don't know is the agreed-upon nomenclature for all things both online and Nationals), than ESPN's Pardon The Interruption, (PTI: 7/13) which was hosted today by Michael Wilbon and guest host and Boston Globe columnist, Bob Ryan, who opens the "Nationals" segment:

Bob Ryan: Mike, breaking news right here in your back yard...

Michael Wilbon: What happened?

Mr. Ryan: The Washington Nationals, owners of baseball's worst record for the last year and a half, have fired manager Manny Acta...

Mr. Wilbon: Naaaooo? (laughs)

Mr. Ryan: But Mike! They've hired bench coach Jim Riggleman, so everything's cured now right?...

(Continued after the JUMP...)

(cont.)...

Mr. Wilbon: Ohhhh getting the former Cubbie in that seat...

Mr. Ryan: Yeah, yeah. Last guy take it, took it...he did take 'em to the postseason...

Mr. Wilbon: The problem isn't the mana-ger, it's manage-ment. It's manage-ment! This has been a disaster, not originally, but certainly, you know certainly, since the "Natinals" moved in that new park and they've had one mishap after another, whether it's personnel embarrassments, about age and somebody's real name and whether he's playing under an alias, to not being able to spell the name of the team correctly on the jersey, one bad thing after another, and when you have that, it ain't the field manager who's the problem, Bobby.

Mr. Ryan: He (Acta) never had a chance with this group that he was given to start the season. The pitching is the worst in the league. The defense is the worst in the league. The bullpen is horrible. They had just a very, very incompatible team, and also then they panicked, tried to bring talented miscre...malcontents such as Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes...

Mr. Wilbon: And you can never do that with a bad team!!

Mr. Ryan: That's not working out too well!!! No. Jim Bowden's regime was a total disaster.

Mr. Wilbon: He set the whole thing back at least five full years if not more than that...and now they need to start over and the manager is the least of their issues...

NOTES:

• Now, WE All Know... that Majestic Athletic officially apologized for having misspelled the word "Nationals" on Ryan Zimmerman's and Adam Dunn's jerseys, but no one read the follow-up piece about the company accepting responsibility for the error, they just saw a picture or two of a major league team that's such a joke that they can't even get the name on their jerseys right and filed it away as another reason the Nationals are considered a "laughingstock" as they're ofter labeled...

• The Elijah Dukes Experiment Is Not Over... According to "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo, who told Sirius/XM's Inside Pitch hosts Jeff Joyce and Joel Sherman this afternoon that, "As the season progresses, Elijah Dukes will be back in the major leagues and we will, we'll certainly see what type of player we have there, on an everyday basis..." Elijah Dukes, who was sent to Triple-A Syracuse a few weeks back, is currently hitting .346 (9 for 26) in 7 games in which he's hit 4 doubles and a 1 HR, with 4 RBI's and 2 SB, a .452 OBP, .615 SLG, 1.067 OPS.

• The Face Of The Franchise...Ryan Zimmerman, when asked by Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin for a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Zimmerman: Players Needed More From Acta", what effect, "The Front Office changing the culture in the clubhouse" had had on the team, told Mr. Sheinin:

"'That's huge. Not to say we had a bad clubhouse or chemistry before, but to kind of get a few people out of there -- not naming any names or anything -- I think that's a huge thing in baseball. To get towards more of a character-driven team is huge for us to become competitive and win day in and day out.'"

(No word on which unnamed player Zimmerman might have been referring to...)

• Nationals' Team President Stan Kasten... told Washington Post writer Tracee Hamilton as quoted in an article entitled, "Kasten's Remarks From The Presser", that the Nationals had invited Manny Acta to the press conference to announce that he'd been fired, but according to Mr. Kasten, Mr. Acta said, "...he really did not want to do that."

• Instead, Manny Acta...chose to send out an email to be published by all the DC media outlets, which reads, (as quoted by Washington Times' writer John Taylor, in an Chatter post entitled simply, "Statement From Manny Acta":

"'First, I would like to thank GOD for putting me in this position. I want to thank the Washington Nationals for giving me the opportunity to be a Major League manager. It was a great learning experience, I have no regrets.

As I move forward, I wish the Nationals all the best. I was very fortunate to work with and meet a lot of wonderful people while here.

I’d like to extend a special thank you to the fans for being so patient and supportive over the last two and a half years.

Last but not least, to the media, thank you for being fair and respectful toward my family and I.'"

• Thanks..."...to the media, thank you for being fair and respectful toward my family and I." Mr. Acta's classy. All this statement made me think about, however, was Former DC GM Jim Bowden's parting statements, as recorded by Washington Post writer Tracee Hamilton entitled, "Bowden Statement", where the departing GM was quoted angrily stating:

"My resignation is based upon my realization that my ability to properly represent the Washington Nationals has been compromised because of false allegations contained in the press. I am disappointed by the media reports regarding investigations into any of my professional activities."

• Oh...And the Nationals...released a letter too...A Letter To Nationals Fans which was posted on the Nationals' official site...

• Enjoy...(ed. note - "No word today from the "Interim" Manager Jim Riggleman. According to Mr. Kasten, again in Tracee Hamilton's Nationals Journal post, ""Kasten's Remarks From The Presser", "...we're going to start the Riggleman era on Wednesday." More on Mr. Riggleman to come...soon...for now check this out...

- Get To Know Your Nationals: Bench Coach Jim Riggleman. - Federal Baseball - Ed Chigliak

New Nationals' Bench Coach Jim Riggleman might still go back to the Seattle Mariners as their Manager, but while he's here let's take a look at the 55-year old's MLB History.