Federal Baseball

Washington Nationals' Drew Storen Takes Loss In AFL Rising Stars Showcase

2009-11-08T09:48:55Z

More photos » by Gerald Herbert - AP

The Washington Nationals' second first-round pick of the '09 First-year Player Draft, Drew Storen of Stanford, and right-handed pitching prospect Josh Wilkie, an amateur free agent signed out of George Washington University in 2006, both tipped their caps to the crowd as they were introduced before the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars Showcase on Saturday night in Surprise, Arizona's Surprise Stadium. Wilkie, who was named to the roster to replace the "injured" Nationals' right-hander Stephen Strasburg, would never take the mound. Storen, the 22-year-old right-handed former Cardinal closer came on in the bottom of the eighth inning of a 7-6 game which saw Storen and Wilkie's AFL East squad jump out to a 7-0 lead off the 7th pick in the '09 Draft, Braves' lefty Mike Minor, only to slowly allow Minor's AFL West teammates to creep back into the game, scoring two in the bottom of the first and four in the home third while holding the East scoreless after the big opening frame.

Storen, wearing the Nationals' road grey uniforms (#17) with the Phoenix Desert Dogs' cap, started San Diego Padres' infield prospect Lance Zawadzki with a 95 mph fastball for a called first strike, and six pitches later surrendered an infield single that got over the mound and was unplayable for A's infielder Jemile Weeks. Matt McBride, a catcher in Cleveland's system since being selected in the 2nd Round of the '06 Draft, was up next and he took a 96 mph fastball low and outside for ball one before unloading on the second-straight fastball from Storen and lifting it to left for a two-run blast and an 8-7 AFL West comeback...Storen retired the next three batters in order, but when the AFL East failed to score in the top of the ninth, he took the L. Storen's Line: (BS, 1), (L, 0-1), 2 H, 2 ER, 2 K's, 1 HR, 18.00 ERA, 19 pitches, 12 strikes,

• Final Score: AFL West 8, AFL East 7 - MLB.com's Gameday.

AFL Rising Stars Showcase GameThread...

2009-11-07T23:24:37Z

Phoenix Municipal Stadium

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The rising stars of the Arizona Fall League face off at 8:15 pm EST tonight, in the AFL's Rising Stars Showcase which will feature a total of 18 1st Round picks (including 5 from 2009 acc. to this AFL pdf) between the two rosters composed of the AFL East and West's best, including the Washington Nationals' second 1st Round pick Drew Storen and RHP Josh Wilkie. Stephen Strasburg, who was scheduled to start for the East squad, was scratched yesterday with what team officials are calling a "strained neck muscle", which will be enough to keep him out of action though no one appears too concerned.

The game will be broadcast live on MLB.tv and the MLB Network.

• MLB.com's Gameday is already up...

Who's Watching The Rising Stars?

Washington Nationals Buy Out Austin Kearns...5 Others Become Free Agents.

2009-11-07T06:42:46Z

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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In early 2007, when then-DC GM Jim Bowden signed right fielder Austin Kearns to a 3-year/$17.5 million dollar deal with a $10 million dollar club option for a fourth year or a $1 million dollar buyout, Kearns told Washington Post writer Barry Svrluga, as quoted in an 2/2/07 article entitled, "Kearns to Have an Extended Stay With Nats", that he decided to sign an extension to stay in the nation's capital because he liked the direction the team was headed:

"'I got to see how close this is to getting it to where they want it to go,' Kearns said at an afternoon news conference at the downtown offices of the Lerner family, which owns the Nationals. 'I really do think it's closer than what people expect because I think there's a lot of pieces of the puzzle that are already here on the field, and pieces that are here off the field. It excited me.'"

(cont.)...

In explaining the signing, Mr. Bowden, who had been the General Manager in Cincinnati when the Reds made Kearns their 1st Round pick in 1998, told MLB.com's Washington Nationals writer Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Nationals, Kearns agree on extension", that Austin Kearns was, "...a complete player. He is like...Ryan Zimmerman,":

"...Austin can play the game from both sides. He is really special. He is just 26 years old. His best years are ahead of him. Philosophically as a general manager, I always like buying free-agent years. I don't like a player going on the market or going on the last year of his contract. I like assets if you can get them at the right numbers and the right deal."

Kearns, who'd been acquired by Washington in a deal with Cincinnati the previous July that also brought SS Felipe Lopez and RHP Ryan Wagner to DC in exchange for pitchers Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson and infielders Royce Clayton and Brendan Harris, had hit .264 with a .363 OBP, 33 doubles, 24 HR's and 86 RBI's the previous season in 87 games with the Reds and 63 with the Nationals, and was coming off a 1-year/$1.85M dollar deal with Cincinnati when he agreed to the extension with the Nationals whose team President Stan Kasten labeled the outfielder "a long-term building block", in Mr. Ladson's article while then-manager Manny Acta called the move, "...a step in the right direction."

Three years, 51 doubles, 26 HR's and 123 RBI's later, the Nationals have excercised that club option for a $1 million dollar buyout of the oft-injured outfielder, who played all but one game in 2007 hitting .266 with 35 of the doubles, 16 of the HR's and 74 of the total RBI's he'd collect in his time with Washington, before appearing in just 166 games total in the final two years of his deal, missing time with elbow, foot and, this year, thumb problems/issues/injuries which severely decreased his offensive contributions and ultimately made the 29-year-old outfielder expendable.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson announced the Nationals' decision to cut ties with Kearns this afternoon in an article entitled, "Trio of Nats complete free agent group", where Mr. Ladson also reported that Ron Villone, Dmitri Young, Josh Bard and Livan Hernandez would become free agents, finally removing from the payroll two of the more burdensome contracts (Kearns' and Young's) that the Former DC GM signed players to during his tenure.

Back in September, Washington Post writer Tom Boswell estimated, in a Q&A with readers entitled, "Ask Boswell: Nats, Orioles, Redskins and More", that all the contracts coming off the Nationals' books this winter would total around $31.5 million dollars, and "With (the) Strasburg, Zim and Dunn deals added back in for '10," Mr. Boswell wrote, "...their payroll obligations for next year (would) stand at an incredibly low $40 million or slightly more," leaving the Nationals with at least $20 million to spend on free agents if they were to return to 2009's total payroll, or close to $40 million dollars if they were to increase the payroll to the league-average $80 million dollars.

?'s For The DC Faithful...The bullpen, the infield, the rotation...the new manager? Where will the Nationals start? What will the Nationals' 2010 payroll be? $40, $60, $80M? Are any of these free agents coming back? Not even Villone?

Stephen Strasburg Pulled From Saturday's AFL Rising Stars Game Acc. To Washington Times.

2009-11-06T19:34:27Z

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

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Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling just put up a brief Chatter post entitled. "Strasburg scratched from Rising Stars Game", wherein Mr. Goessling reports that the Washington Nationals' '09 No. 1 overall pick, pitcher Stephen Strasburg will not be participating in Saturday night's Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Game, having been pulled with what the Nationals described as a "strained neck muscle", but Mr. Goessling notes that, "The scratch is just a precaution and Strasburg is day to day," so no reason to panic...plus it just means the DC Faithful will have to watch until the ninth when the Next Flat-Brimmed Closer Drew Storen is called upon to do his thing...

(ed. note - "If you didn't catch it this week, Washington Post writer Tracee Hamilton talked to an anonymous AL Scout who gave the Post writer a quick scouting report on all of the Nationals' prospects currently playing in the AFL for an article entitled, "A Scout's Take on the Desert Dog Nats", in which the scout gave his/her take on the Nationals' second '09 1st Round pick:

"'He threw very well. He commanded his pitches; he's got two solid average-to-plus pitches. He's a two-pitch guy. He's going to be a set-up guy with a great chance of being there [in the majors] this year. He's very aggressive; he attacked the hitters: 'Here it is, here's my best, I'm coming after you. If you hit it, then you won the battle.'"

The AFL Rising Stars Game is going to be on the MLB Network at 8:15 pm EST Saturday night if you didn't already know, and we'll definitely be watching here in spite of the Strasburg news, so check back for the GameThread...")

Ryan Zimmerman Fielding Bible Awardee 2009

2009-11-04T00:14:00Z

Did you guys see the latest accolade given to Ryan Zimmerman on account of his 2009 season in the field? Bill James 2009 Fielding Bible award for all of MLB--makes me think his chances are even greater of winning the NL Gold Glove. The other winners--Pujols, Aaron Hill, Jack Wilson, Carl Crawford, Franklin Guitierez, Ichiro, Yadier Molina and Mark Buerhle. Congratulations to Ryan.

I will be shocked now if he doesn't get the NL Gold Glove!

(ed. note - "In case you didn't see this in the comments section, VA Slim also points out that Ryan Zimmerman is up for the This Year in Baseball Fielding Awards writing:

"...perhaps a fielding bible and being the best ‘this year in baseball’ in fielding(or up in the top 3) would make him a lock? It’s an accomplishment just to be in the final 10 or so that mlb nominated."

The 2009 Web Gem Award, the 2009 Fielding Bible Award, the TYIB Fielding Award...Next Stop Gold Glove, c'mon DC Faithful, let's get another VOTE FOR ZIM rally going!!! We all know how skilled he is in the gloved arts, let's make sure all of baseball recognizes...Thanks, for the heads up, VA.")

• This Year In Baseball Fielding Award -- VOTE FOR ZIM HERE!!!

Jim Riggleman Alone Amongst Candidates For Next Washington Nationals' Skipper?

2009-11-05T10:15:21Z

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Any day now...JIm Riggleman awaits the Nationals' decision on who will be named the next full-time Skipper. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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Former DC GM Jim Bowden thinks Jim Riggleman is the man for the full-time Manager’s job in DC. Washington Times’ writers Ben Goessling and Mark Zuckerman said it was going to be Riggleman yesterday and MASN Sports.com’s Byron Kerr quotes Mr. Riggleman himself saying that a decision should be made any day now, now that the World Series is over...Will the Washington Nationals finally name their next full-time manager?

During last night's World Series-deciding game in New York, former DC GM Jim Bowden sent out a Twitter message that referenced the Yankees' Skipper, Joe Girardi, who had once been under consideration for the Nationals' job, back before Washington settled on Manny Acta back in 2006:

"Nats didn't spend for Piniella or Girardi last time, so likely Riggleman will have interim tag removed and be named MGR after WS."

Of course, a day earlier, Washington Times' writers Ben Goessling and Mark Zuckerman, in an article entitled, "Riggleman could stay with Nationals", wrote that the decision could be determined by the Nationals', "...reluctan(ce) to spend top dollar on its manager," citing "club sources" who said that said reluctance:

"...likely would eliminate high-profile candidates like Bobby Valentine or Buck Showalter despite interest from both former managers in the job."

WIth Mr.'s Zuckerman and Goessling also reporting in the article that Don Mattingly had, "removed himself from consideration" for the Nationals' job opening, it appeared, in their opinion, that only Mr. Riggleman remained amongst those candidates who had been under consideration, with former D-Backs' Manager Bob Melvin, "who had spoken to (DC GM Mike) Rizzo in recent weeks...more attractive as a bench coach,"

Mr. RIggleman himself told MASN Sports.com's Byron Kerr in an interview published yesterday along with an article entitled, "Quick update with Riggleman", that though he, in his own words, "...really hadn't talked to anyone," about being given the full-time job, he, as Mr. Kerr wrote, "...expects the talks with the Nats to heat up as soon as the World Series concludes."

With the World Series now officially over following the Yankees' win in NY on Wednesday, how long will the Nationals wait to make things official with Riggleman? Or, will the team, which has made no public statements regarding their search other than to say that they would take their time and conduct a thorough search surprise the baseball world by unveiling a candidate no one is expecting? Either way, it won't be long now until DC fans know who'll be leading the twenty-ten Nats...

FB: World Series Deciding-?-GameThread...

2009-11-05T00:34:34Z

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

7 months ago: Apartment buildings in the Bronx borough of New York can be seen behind the Yankee Stadium sign atop the left field wall during a major league baseball exhibition game between the New York Yankees and the Chicago Cubs on Friday, April 3, 2009, at the new Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Next Game

Philadelphia Phillies
@ New York Yankees

Wednesday, Nov 4, 2009, 7:57 PM EST
Yankee Stadium

Pedro Martinez vs Andy Pettitte

Complete Coverage >

Andy Pettitte

#46 / Pitcher / New York Yankees

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 15, 1972

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Andy Pettitte	14-8	32	32	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.16	1.38

Pedro Martinez

#45 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 25, 1971

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pedro Martinez	5-1	9	9	0	0	0	0	44.2	48	18	18	7	8	37	3.63	1.25

• Can We Get This Crap Over With And Name A Manager Already?

Washington Nationals: Fall Update - Aaron Crow, Don Mattingly Says No...

2009-11-04T08:12:12Z

Phoenix Municipal Stadium

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Strange now to think of what could have been had Aaron Crow agreed to sign with the Washington Nationals after they selected the right-hander out of Topeka, Kansas and the University of Missouri with the 9th overall pick in the 2008 MLB First-Year Player Draft. Crow didn’t come with anywhere near the hype that accompanied ‘09 No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg, nor had he earned the distinction of being the top prospect in the draft that year, though he was the second pitcher taken, and was recognized as the best right-hander available in his draft class. It’s pointless to wonder whether or not DC GM Mike Rizzo would have been able to get Crow signed since it was former DC GM Jim Bowden negotiationg with Crow then, and I’m sure most DC fans are more than happy to have right-handed reliever Drew Storen (the comp pick for Crow) in the system instead, but there’s no denying Crow's talent, which was on display this afternoon in an AFL game between Crow's Surprise Rafters and Storen and Strasburg's Phoenix Desert Dogs...

(cont.)...

Crow, who went back into the draft, and ended up with the Royals, was the only one of the three pitchers to appear in this afternoon's extra inning affair, but his day ended early after just 3.1 IP in which the soon-to-be 23-year-old right-hander allowed 6 hits, 4 ER and 1 walk while recording 2 K's and throwing 56 pitches, 42 for strikes. Back-to-back singles followed by back-to-back sacs (a sac bunt and a sac fly) resulted in the D-Dogs' first run off Crow in the second, and a misplayed fly ball in center that wasn't ruled an error let Nationals' SS prospect Danny Espinosa on in the third and resulted in Phoenix's second run of the game when a groundout and an RBI single brought Espinosa around. In the fourth, Crow issued a leadoff walk and then gave up a run scoring triple and a sac fly before being removed with the Rafters down 4-2...(ed. note - "No Pitch F/X or radar in the D-Dogs' home, so no way to know how hard Crow was throwing.") (ed. note - "Which of the three pitchers, Crow, Storen or Strasburg do you think will debut in the majors first? Who will end up having the best career?)

Game Notes: Both Nationals' prospects in the lineup today ended up 2 for 6, with Espinosa scoring one run after his ground-rule double (misplayed fly?) in the third. Chris Marrero, who started at first and hit third, had two hard-hit singles, but stranded three.

• Final Score - Rafters 6, D-Dogs 5 - MLB.com Gameday.

Mattingly Not Interested...

I heard this first from Jim Bowden's TwitterFeed, (which I believe is from the real Jim Bowden though I'm not sure, but why else would he announce guests on his radio show), where Mr. Bowden wrote this morning that:

"The Los Angeles Dodgers have declined the Nationals permission to talk with Don Mattingly as he does not have interest in the Nats Opening..."

...and anyway the same news was later in the day by Washington Times' writer Mark Zuckerman, who wrote, in an article entitled, "Mattingly out of the running":

"The Nationals are expected to name their manager in the next week, and after Don Mattingly removed himself from consideration, it appears Jim Riggleman has an inside track toward retaining the job he held on an interim basis during the second half of the season."

According to Mr. Zuckerman, it's down to Riggleman and former D-Backs' skipper Bob Melvin, with, "...the decision to come shortly after the World Series," and Mr. Zuckerman cites the fact that, "...none of the coaches from last year's staff are pursuing other openings," as evidence that, "Within the Nationals organization, the move seems to be toward the status quo."

Isn't the "status quo" back-to-back 100 loss seasons and the worst defense in baseball? But since this is the only news out of DC in the last week or so, I'm sure you all read Mr. Zuckerman's report yesterday, so my question is, what do you think of the fact that Mr. Zuckerman writes in the article:

"Washington ownership also is reluctant to spend top dollar on its manager, according to club sources, which would likely eliminate any high-profile candidates like Bobby Valentine or Buck Showalter, despite interest from both former managers in the job."

Will the Nationals spend the money they're saving by bringing Riggleman back (if these reports are true) on the free agent pitcher(s) and infielder they've been talking about since last September? Would you pay around $4 million for either Valentine or Showalter? Does Brenly have a chance? Any so-called dark horse candidates out there?

• (ed. note - "Just in case you didn't know, the AFL's Rising Stars Showcase will be televised on the MLB Network this Saturday. There will definitely be a GameThread here since both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen are on the AFL East's roster...If you're starved for baseball, Saturday night will provide a little relief to hold you over until Spring Training...Who's Watching the Nationals' Prospects?")

Stephenom! Washington Nationals' Stephen Strasburg Hits Triple Digits In Arizona.

2009-11-03T15:15:33Z

Strasburg LIVE in Surprise, Arizona...

At the end of a long strip mall, palm tree and box car lined stretch of Arizona asphalt, tucked away behind shopping centers, restaurants and car washes galore is the only lush green grass to be seen for miles around, on the field at Surprise Stadium in Surprise, Arizona. Stephen Strasburg made his fourth AFL start there Monday afternoon in front of 400-500 fans, scouts and even one MLB team President, or as one local fan described it to me, "More people than I've ever seen at one of these games." "Why are there so many people here?" a nearby fan asked as he overheard our conversation, "That's why," the local gentlemen said, pointing to the triple-digit speed readings flashing on the scoreboard, "People still get excited about seeing someone throw over 100 mph."

(cont.)...

Four of Stephen Strasburg's first 6 pitches hit triple digits, and in the first inning, Strasburg, who was ahead 3-0 before even taking the mound, topped out at 101 mph as he struck out leadoff batter, gave up a one-out single and then got a DP grounder to bring a scoreless first frame to a close. The crowd watched, oohed and aahed as Strasburg delivered one buzzing fastball after another, most of which were in the high '90's with a few dropping as low as 92.

Strasburg's heater hit a hundred twice in the second inning, once for strike three and a swinging K from Mets' IF/OF Nick Evans, who's already played 80 major league games, and again as he walked Rangers' catcher Taylor Teagarden, who has 76 MLB games under his belt. Another swinging K from the Kansas City Royals' top-rated prospect, (according to Baseball America), Mike Moustakas, was followed by a two-out single, and then a weak groundout as Strasburg retired the final batter of his second scoreless frame.

The Nationals' '09 No. 1 overall pick hit 100 just once in the third as he retired the Rafters' batters in order, but all but one of his fastballs came in at 98 or 99, and he remained in the high 90's as he retired three of the four batters he faced in the fourth with only Teagarden's two-out single disrupting Strasburg's flow. A leadoff double in the fifth by Yankees' first base prospect Brandon Laird was the only extra base hit Strasburg allowed, and he might have been held to a long single if Desert Dogs' left fielder Corey Brown hadn't made an ill-advised dive at the liner. Two groundouts later Laird scored the only run Strasburg surrendered, and he was still in the high-90's as his outing came to a close.

• Strasburg's Line: (W, 3-1), 5.28 ERA, 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K's, 68 pitches, 43 strikes, 9 groundouts, 0 flyouts, 19 batters faced.

After Strasburg, the Nationals' pitching prospects filed out one after another, since, as I mentioned in the opening paragraph, Washington's team President, Stan Kasten, was in attendance to see how the Nationals' prospects were progressing. Brad Wilk...I mean, Josh Wilkie, threw a scoreless sixth, and Jeff Mandel pitched the eighth, surrendering a run on two hits after giving up a leadoff triple that scored on an RBI groundout, and then the Nationals' closer of the future Drew Storen, Washington's second 1st Round pick, pitched a 1-2-3 ninth which saw the former Stanford Cardinal closer dial his fastball up as high as 97 mph and mix in some brutal 83-89 mph benders and sliders as he retired the Rafters in order to end Strasburg's third win.

• Final Score - Desert Dogs 10, Rafters 2. - MLB.com GameDay (w/ Pitch FX!!)

Desert Dogs now 12-6.

(ed. note - "I'll be reporting LIVE from Phoenix Municipal Stadium for the next two days, but rather than set up a GameThread, I'll just put the comments in this post since all the Nationals' pitchers threw today and it'll be just the fielders (if they play) in the lineup tomorrow.")

2010 Rotation Candidates - In House Options

2009-11-03T06:42:44Z

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher Ross Detwiler throws in the first inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Washington, Saturday, June 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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Last week, we went with a Fanpost about some of the options that the Nats could or should take a serious look at when Free Agency gets going full swing. While I love the fact that it created plenty of discussion, a few steps were left off the pages as I jumped to the conclusions about the Nats' needs. A couple of users pointed out my omissions of pretty much every starter on the current roster except for John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, and the injury-riddled Scott Olsen. This was certainly a fair point, so for my first official article (well.... likely a series over the next couple of weeks, moving to the bullpen and position players), I'm going to take a look at the options that the Nats already have in house.

Despite getting just a combined 33 starts (all from John Lannan) from their primary pitchers they started in 2008, the 2009 Nats actually matched their 2008 starters' ERA exactly (4.97). Neither group was in the top two-thirds of the league (2008 saw them finish 23rd... 2009, 27th), but considering that 26-year-old starters J.D. Martin and Garrett Mock were the two elder statesmen among the eight starters who made ten starts or more, there's some room for optimism going forward. The only starter with a consistent enough (or long enough, to be honest) track record for the Nats to know he'll be dependable in 2010 is Lannan, but there are plenty of guys with a shot to take a step forward in 2010.

I'll give some more in-depth insights, as well as ordering the candidates and their expected 2010 performance after the jump...

The Candidates (In order of 2009 Major League Starts Made)

John Lannan (33)

Craig Stammen (19)

Garrett Mock (15)

J.D. Martin (15)

Shairon Martis (15)

Ross Detwiler (14)

Scott Olsen (11) *

Livan Hernandez (8) **

Colin Balester (7)

Stephen Strasburg (0)

Bradley Meyers (0)

* Arbitration Eligible ** Free Agent

Statistically, nobody else in the minors really looked ready to make the jump. Strasburg is a pretty polarizing force among both fans and the mainstream media. Some think that he's immediately big-league ready. Others feel that he should probably get a year's worth (or at least part of a year) of pitching professionally before being thrown into the big league rotation. Count me as someone who thinks that he should at least begin the 2010 season in the minor leagues.

John Lannan: 9-13, 3.88 ERA (4.70 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, 89 K, 68 BB, 206.1 IP

The Eye Test: In two and a half years since reaching the majors, Lannan has been something of an enigma. What we see doesn't look fantastic. His fastball isn't overpowering. While his curveball is certainly a plus pitch, he doesn't have any one pitch that can dominate hitters. However, he continues to consistently induce weak contact on balls in play by keeping hitters guessing. There's nothing particularly deceptive about his delivery, but he's effective, and has been in each of the past two years.

Stuff: His fastball has shown a bit of improvement as he's become more acclimated to the big league level. On average, his fastball has jumped from 86.7 MPH in 2007 as a rookie to 88.2 MPH in 2009. His favorite secondary pitch has been the slider, which breaks sharply and dives late. Lannan does change speeds very well, with a sixteen MPH difference between his fastball (88) and his curve (72).

Statistically Speaking: Lannan's ground ball to fly ball rate took a bit of a hit this season, dropping from 2.02 to 1.72. That said, his BABIP remained pretty consistent at .276. While it's pretty well-known that pitchers' BABIPs allowed are generally going to normalize between .290 and .300 over time, it's safe to say that a 2.5 year sample size is indicative of the fact that Lannan's low BABIP may, in fact, be sustainable. Lannan's BABIP in 2007 was .273. It was .273 in 2008 as well. While I hoped it wouldn't, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop on him a bit this season, but it didn't.

It's been beaten to death around some sabermetric websites, but it still needs to be pointed out that Lannan's strikeout rate is a major concern in terms of his long-term success. Lannan struck out just 3.88 batters per nine innings in 2009, a significant dropoff from a (still relatively poor) 5.79 K/9 rate in 2008. Strikeout rates certainly aren't the be-all, end-all by any means, but (particularly on a Nats team that struggled mightily defensively in 2009) most big league pitchers can't be quite as reliant on their fielders as Lannan has been. If he can bring the strikeout rate back up over 5.00, then I like his chances at continued success.

Prognosis: In all likelihood, Lannan is the only pitcher from the 2009 starting crop who would have been worthy of a spot in a contender's rotation. The frightening part is that he's miscast as the Nationals' ace. Ideally, he'd be a #3 starter on a contender, preferably placed between two power pitchers to change the pace.

Ross Detwiler: 1-6, 5.00 ERA (3.86 FIP), 1.59 WHIP, 43 K, 33 BB, 75.2 IP

The Eye Test: At 6'5, 174 (soaking wet), Detwiler definitely needs to add some bulk to his frame. Apart from that, I don't have any complaints. He has good mound presence and a good feel for pitching. He has solid sink on all of his pitches, and looks like he could develop into a nice ground ball pitcher with solid power pitching production.

Stuff: His fastball tops off in the mid-nineties, but sits most comfortably in the 89-91 range. On the plus side, his fastball has good sinking movement, leading to a lot of ground balls. He seems to have improved on his curveball quite a bit in the past couple of years in the minors, and it gives him an excellent change of pace. The changeup could use some improvement, but has the potential to be above average.

Statistically Speaking: It's hard to completely discount the 5.00 ERA in roughly half a season's worth of big league starts, but it's more important to look a little closer at the numbers below the surface. Detwiler's 3.86 FIP in the big leagues led all Nats starters in 2009, and is indicative of the better days ahead. Save for one big league inning in his first pro season after roster expansion (part of his entry contract), Detwiler was making his first venture above the A+ level to start the year, and pretty much everything he did at all three levels this season indicates future success:

AA: 0-3, 2.96 ERA (3.31 FIP), 1.39 WHIP, 28:10 K:BB ratio in 27+ innings

AAA: 4-2, 3.10 ERA (3.24 FIP), 1.54 WHIP, 42:20 K:BB ratio in 49+ innings

Lost in all of this is that Detwiler was the anti-Lannan. How so? His BABIP in AA was .346. His BABIP in AAA was .357. His BABIP in Washington was .330. Again, BABIP is something that will typically normalize between .290 and .300. While I believe that, based on what Lannan over 2.5 years, it's possible for a pitcher to slightly reduce that figure (and I assume that the opposite is true, as well), any pitcher allowing a BABIP as high as Detwiler did this year seems to have been extremely unlucky.

Detwiler's strikeout rate nosedived a bit when he went to the majors, but that's far from atypical. That figures to improve a bit in his second shot in the big leagues. He does need to work a bit on his walk rate, though that should improve as he becomes more confident attacking the zone at the big league level.

Detwiler does have a couple of statistical anomalies that seem unsustainable as well (most notably, his HR/FB rate of 3.7%, which typically resides closer to 9 or 10% around the league), but the positives seem to outweigh the negatives.

Prognosis: Build wise, stuff wise, and statistically, he reminds me a lot of a player that the Expos/Nats were "Minayad" out of in the Bartolo Colon trade (Cliff Lee). It doesn't look like Detwiler will ever become a dominant strikeout pitcher, but he throws plenty of ground balls and strikes out enough for his power pitching to make a difference. He needs to hone his command a bit more, but he's only 23. Most likely, he ends up developing into a solid middle of the rotation starter. Without question, he should be in the rotation all year in 2010.

Garrett Mock: 3-10, 5.62 ERA (4.28 FIP), 1.73 WHIP, 72 K, 44 BB, 91.1 IP

The Eye Test: If you thought you were starting to notice a lack of power pitching with my top two, you're going to see it get even worse as we move down the line. Mock is one of the few in house options the Nats have with a power arm. He's struggled a bit the past few years being used as a tweener that's shifted between the rotation and the bullpen, and it's shown at times with his confidence on the hill.

Stuff: Mock certainly doesn't have dominant stuff, but he has enough to succeed. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid nineties with so-so movement. He brings a nice power slider to the table, as well as a solid change. He went away from the curveball a lot more this year, using it just 10% of the time (20% in 2008), going with the changeup much more often.

Statistically Speaking: Like Detwiler, Mock was plagued by an insanely high BABIP against during his major league stint this season. Mock allowed a ridiculously high .361 BABIP in the majors, as compared to a very low .262 BABIP in AAA. Not surprisingly, he owned the International League (5-1, 2.65 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) when he was down in Syracuse. Going off of his major league production alone, his strikeout rate (7.09) was above average. His walk rate (4.34) could use some improvement, but did improve from 2008 (5.05). His strikeout to walk ratio (1.64) could certainly improve, as we'd ideally be hoping to see him hit the 2.00 mark.

For a power pitcher, Mock did throw a lot of ground balls this season, maintaining a strong 1.49 GB/FB rate. His HR/9 rate (0.89) looks pretty sustainable in a park that has slightly favored pitchers. His HR/FB rate (9.0%) also seems pretty sustainable, as it's pretty much league average. Simply put, the two biggest problems that Mock encountered in 2009 (in the majors) were a lower-than-average strand rate (64.2%... most pitchers will end up between 70 and 75%) and the fact that the fielders behind him weren't making plays.

Prognosis: Simply put, Mock (26) has done enough in the minors the past two years so that he has nothing to prove by heading back to AAA. Mike Rizzo and whoever the Nats name as their new skipper (latest reports say they're leaning towards bringing Riggleman back) need to commit to Mock either as a starter or a reliever and stick with it in 2010. His production to this point in his career would certainly indicate that he might end up as a nice organizational swingman (pitching at AAA and being able to come up with an injury or two to the big league rotation) on a contender. For the Nats, he's one of the top five options they have, and they need to cut the cord and give him a full opportunity to stick.

Scott Olsen: 2-4, 6.03 ERA (5.24 FIP), 1.72 WHIP, 42 K, 25 BB, 62.2 IP

The Eye Test: It was certainly a terrible year for the talented young lefty. Olsen struggled early before shutting it down with a shoulder injury in early May. After coming back for three starts, he re-aggravated the injury and opted for season-ending surgery. Though he's still young, indications in the past two years are that he's losing something off of his fastball. The shoulder injury could well be the culprit.

Stuff: A couple of years ago, he sat consistently in the low-nineties with his fastball. His average fastball in 2009 was just 88 MPH, though. He has a good slider and a potentially dominant change to complement it. Whether it's because ofthe shoulder injury or for some other reason, Olsen has gone away from his fastball quite a bit the past two years, relying on his off-speed stuff more and more often. Just 56% of his pitches last season were fastballs, as compared to 70% in 2007.

Statistically Speaking: There's not a lot that looks favorable in Olsen's statistical profile. Though he's early in his career, he does seem to be getting into an up year/down year trend (his two best seasons were in 2006 [4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP] and 2008 [4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP]... they surrounded a 5.81 ERA bust year in 2007 and were followed by last year's injury-plagued mess with the Nats). Not surprisingly, his BABIP has fluctuated heavily from year to year, and 2006 (.285, which is close to average) and 2008 (.266, which is extremely low) were good years. 2007 (.350) and 2009 (.348) were awful years. Still, Olsen hasn't had an FIP of under 5.00 since that 2006 season, and his strikeout rate the past couple of years has been way down from his first two seasons in Florida. Olsen is a fly ball pitcher, and his HR/9 rate reflects it (1.37 career, 1.58 last year).

Prognosis: Ideally, we find that the shoulder problem had been bothering him a bit in 2008 as well and that 2007 was a bit of a statistical anomaly. Olsen is entering his second year of arbitration, and must accept it if the Nats offer it to him. The problem, of course, is that he made $2.8 million last season, and very few players see their salary drop in arbitration, so there's no guarantee that they can keep Olsen under contract. It's safe to assume that it's going to cost the Nats roughly $3 million to retain Olsen. Given the team's modest payroll, that may not be worth it. I happen to think that it will be, as I don't think they're going to find anyone better for the price.

Craig Stammen: 4-7, 5.11 ERA (4.68 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 48 K, 24 BB, 105.2 IP

The Eye Test: A finesse right-hander, there's not a lot that's particularly impressive about Stammen. He's mainly reliant upon an average fastball and his curveball, primarily relying on his deception and command to succeed.

Stuff: His fastball tops off around ninety, and sits primarily in the high eighties. He does have pretty good movement, and varies speeds on his fastball pretty well. While he mainly relies on his fastball and his curveball, he does offer a changeup and a slider. There's not much variance in the speed of his off-speed stuff.

Statistically Speaking: Honestly, his numbers are just plain odd. Stammen generally maintained a solid strikeout rate in the minors from 2006 through 2008. While he finally seemed to click early last season, it happened as his strikeout rate got cut in half. As Stammen worked his way up from High A Potomac to AAA Columbus in 2008, he maintained a 7.64 K/9 rate. Even as he reached AAA, Stammen struck out 35 batters in 43 innings, but couldn't build on his (albeit, in short stints) dominant performance from an ERA or FIP perspective at the lower levels. In fact, the more traditional numbers (7.33 ERA, 1.81 WHIP) would indicate that he was just plain awful in his nine starts in AAA in 2008. Using all these new-fangled sabermetric statistics such as FIP, we can see that he may actually have been better during his 2008 AAA stint (3.73 FIP) than he was when he was dominating AAA in some of the more traditional statistics early last year (1.80 actual ERA... 4.40 FIP). His strikeout rate in Syracuse (3.15) was actually pretty pitiful, but he was more successful on the surface.

Despite the statistical oddities in the minors last season, he was pretty solid after getting the call to the big leagues. Stammen still didn't really do much to improve his strikeout rate, though it was a touch better (4.09). He did continue to show impeccable control (2.04 BB/9) and maintained a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio despite the fact that he wasn't striking many hitters out. The .282 BABIP was a bit low, but it's at least in the range where it would appear to be sustainable. Though he's predominantly a ground ball pitcher, Stammen did allow a little over a home run per nine innings, and his HR/FB rate was just a touch high at 11.9%.

Prognosis: It's hard to say that a rookie starter may have already peaked, but I get the feeling Stammen has done just that. Given his solid performance out of the rotation this year, he should be given every opportunity to compete for a spot next season. If the Nats don't break the bank going after a free agent starter or two, he should probably begin the year near the back of the Nats' rotation. Long term, I just don't see him there.

J.D. Martin: 5-4, 4.44 ERA (5.67 FIP), 1.42 WHIP, 37 K, 24 BB, 77 IP

The Eye Test: Have I said finesse righty for any of the other..... yeah. I guess I have. He's managed to do pretty well at the minor league level as a strikeout pitcher, but that's certainly not because he overpowers hitters. A minor league vet, Martin appears to know his craft and expose hitters' weaknesses.

Stuff: Martin doesn't really have a big league quality fastball, though he does mask that with a wide array of pitches. His fastball sits in the mid-eighties and tops off in the high eighties. He has a nice late-breaking cutter that he throws about half as often as his fastball. Martin also features a slow curveball and a changeup. Like most finesse pitchers, he relies greatly on his control.

Statistically Speaking: Martin was positively Maddux-like at Syracuse before getting the call to the bigs. He walked just 10 batters in 88 innings (and one of those was intentional). He wasn't quite as efficient in that regard upon reaching the majors, but his 2.81 BB/9 rate as a rookie was still spectacular. It seems that he was able to get a lot of minor league hitters out via the strikeout even without dominant heat (6.44 K/9 at Syracuse... 7.93 K/9 in 2008 with the Indians organization), though it didn't translate quite as well at the big league level (4.32). There's both a possibility and an expectation for a bit of improvement in that area going forward, but he'll never become a dominant strikeout pitcher. He's a fly ball pitcher, which can be troubling without much of a power arsenal. This led to a 1.64 HR/9 inning ratio in 15 starts with the Nats in 2009. His FIP matched up pretty well with his AAA numbers (2.66 ERA, 2.77 FIP), but indicated that he may have been a bit lucky during his stint in the big leagues (4.44 ERA, 5.67 FIP).

Prognosis: Martin has certainly pitched well enough to have earned a shot at sticking on a big league roster, but he looks like a change of pace reliever long-term. The Indians tried shifting him to the bullpen in 2008 with good results. Barring outside help being brought in, Martin likely gets a crack at winning a rotation spot next Spring, which wouldn't be the most horrible thing in the world. We'll see how the league does when they get a second look at him. His arsenal just indicates to me that he's probably not going to be that successful as a starter long-term, though he could be effective if used out of the bullpen.

Livan Hernandez: 9-12, 5.44 ERA (4.44 FIP), 1.56 WHIP, 102 K, 67 BB, 183.2 IP

The Eye Test: Well.... I guess there's no other pitcher in baseball as reliant on the eephus pitch as Livan is at this point. Livan's best days are long since behind him, and it's shown ever since he left Washington the first time.

Stuff: Once upon a time, Hernandez's fastball touched 90 MPH on occasion. Nowadays, he's lucky to get it over 85. He's crafty, and his heat generally has three different speeds: Slow, Rush Hour, and Paint Drying. Honestly, he makes the two soft-tossers above look like Roger Clemens at times. He does throw a variety of breaking balls, including a slider, a sinking change, and one of the bigger looping curveballs in recent memory.

Statistically Speaking: We'll start with the positive. For the second straight year, he improved upon his FIP (4.44). Now to the negatives. Hernandez finished last in the majors among 78 qualifiers for the ERA title with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. In 2008, he finished 87th out of 88 qualifiers for the ERA title with a 6.05 ERA and tied for 86th with a 1.67 WHIP. While his strikeout rate was almost acceptable last season, it touched 5.00 for the first time in the past three seasons. Livan has not maintained a K/BB ratio of better than 1.75 since 2004. Quite frankly, the 34-year-old (which could be questionable) doesn't even eat innings like he used to.

Prognosis: My worst day this offseason will be the day that I hear that the Nats have retained Livan Hernandez, and (much as I hope it doesn't) I know that day is coming. I understand that he has a wealth of experience both because of his service time and the fact that he's pitched (effectively, earlier in his career) in some big games. While I feel that the Nats should certainly pursue a guy who is a quality big-league starter who can help to mentor some of the youngsters on the staff, I simply think that he falls short of being a quality big-league starter at this point in his career. I'd probably be wrong if I said that nobody will go after him for anything more than a minor league deal if he doesn't sign with the Nats, but nobody should.

Shairon Martis: 5-3, 5.25 ERA (5.48 FIP), 1.42 WHIP, 34 K, 39 BB, 85.2 IP

The Eye Test: There was no in between for Martis. He was either really good or just plain awful during his time in the big leagues in 2009. Martis allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his fifteen starts. He allowed five or more in five of his fifteen starts. There wasn't much in the way of consistency, though it was nice to see how good he could be when he was on.

Stuff: Martis' raw stuff isn't amazing, but it's above average. He tops off in the low nineties with his fastball, complementing it with a solid changeup and slider. He rarely mixes in his curve, but does vary his pitches quite a bit, using his fastball just 58% of the time in 2009.

Statistically Speaking: Ideally, you'd like to see a young pitcher (even one who struggled) have a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 2.00. Martis walked five more hitters than he struck out in 2009. Simply put, this is too huge a problem for him to overcome. Considering that Martis had a 5.25 ERA in the big leagues last season, it's a bit scary to say that he was lucky, but his BABIP indicates just that. Martis allowed just a .258 average on balls in play when he was in Washington last season, and that's far from sustainable. He improved a bit both with his strikeout rate and his all-around production when he was sent back to Syracuse, but still looked like he needed more work.

Prognosis: It was a really nice early run for Martis in Washington last year, but the simple fact of the matter is that he looks like he needs more time (maybe a full year) in AAA. The talent's there, and he's still just 22, so there's an excellent chance he'll be a nice contributor for the Nats down the line. I just don't see it happening in 2010.

Collin Balester: 1-4, 6.82 ERA (7.45 FIP), 1.58 WHIP, 20 K, 14 BB, 30.1 IP

The Eye Test: After splitting time between Columbus and Washington in 2008, Balester spent most of 2009 at AAA Syracuse. He looked a bit worse for the wear after struggling a bit as a rookie in 2008, and his surface numbers (4.44 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) took a bit of a hit in the minors.

Stuff: Once considered the Nats top pitching prospect, Balester does have good stuff and a power pitching profile. He features a fastball that sits in the 91-92 range and can touch the mid-nineties. He complements it with a solid curveball and a changeup that he seemed to get away from last year.

Statistically Speaking: Both his strikeout rate and walk rate took hits in AAA last year, though his FIP actually improved significantly, in part because he was particularly unlucky on balls in play. Balester had a .349 BABIP and a bit of an unsustainable home run rate (5 in 107 IP) in AAA. We got a chance to see first hand how unsustainable that home run rate was when Balester made a late-season appearance in Washington, as he allowed a ridiculous 10 homers in 30 innings.

Prognosis: Like Martis, he'll still be just 23 when Spring Training begins, so there's still plenty of time for him to try and turn things around. It won't be in the Nationals rotation to begin the year, though. Balester needs more seasoning.

Brad Meyers: No MLB Stats

The Eye Test: Listed at 6'6, 190, he certainly has a good, projectable frame. There's not much to go on with the eye test, so we'll talk about his minor league stats instead. Meyers dominated High A ball to start the year, going 6-2 with a 1.43 ERA, a 2.72 FIP, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 65:21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80+ innings. After earning his promotion to Harrisburg, Meyers continued to thrive, going 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA, a 2.76 FIP, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 43:11 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are just plain dominant at any level, and while the 24-year-old probably won't receive more than a token invite to camp, he certainly bears watching.

Stuff: I can't say anything from having watched him first hand, so I'll just go with the scouting report. His fastball has been clocked as high as 94, but is usually in the 89-91 range. He has a slider that's a potential plus pitch and a changeup that (at the time) was hit or miss. He has good movement, including some late sink on his fastball.

Statistically Speaking: The former fifth rounder (2007) took some time to develop, but everything seems like it's started to click. He started to show improvement with his strikeout rate in 2008, fanning 7.91 batters per nine innings. He continued to show how much he's improved as a strikeout pitcher in 2009, managing a 7.13 K/9 rate between Potomac and Harrisburg. Meyers also showed continued improvement with his control, as he walked just 2.11 batters per nine innings in the minors this season. The numbers would indicate that he was certainly a bit lucky with his HR rate, as he allowed just three home runs in 136+ innings between A+ and AA ball. Maybe the biggest plus about his production in 2009 is that he performed so well while maintaining a pretty average BABIP.

Prognosis: Given his performance in 2009, I certainly think that there's a terrific chance that Meyers has a future in the rotation. While he was taken in the fifth round out of Loyola-Marymount in 2007, he was projected as a sandwich pick, and slipped through the cracks a bit. That said, I think he should get the token invite to Spring Training and probably start the year in Harrisburg, getting a call to Syracuse in June if it looks like he's building upon last year's strong showing. The stuff's there. The projectable frame is there. The performance is there. He just needs to keep building on that confidence and show last year wasn't a fluke.

Stephen Strasburg: No MLB Stats

The Eye Test: We've all seen Strasburg's scouting videos at this point. He has an ideal pitching frame, overpowering stuff, and is being labeled as a savior.

Stuff: His fastball's been clocked as high as 103, but sits better in the high nineties. He's finally showing off that changeup that he'd talked about, and it looks like a third potential plus pitch. His breaking ball is more slurvy than anything else.

Statistically Speaking: Arguably the best college pitcher of all time, there's not a whole lot to go on professionally. Strasburg has looked really strong in three of his four AFL starts and blew up in the other one. He'll post huge strikeout numbers, but he's going to have to get used to facing hitters that play at a considerably higher level than those he faced at San Diego State.

Prognosis: He's young. He's rich. He's going to be terrific, but the wise move will be to bring him along slowly. Give him an invite to Spring Training, but start him off in A ball and let him get his feet wet. When the Nats call him up to the big leagues, they're going to expect him to be their ace for the next six years. Make sure he's ready for that type of responsibility.

By my count, here's what we're looking at heading into the offseason based on what's in house:

Definite In House Options

John Lannan

Probable In House Options

Ross Detwiler

Garrett Mock

Maybes

Scott Olsen

Craig Stammen

J.D. Martin

Probably Not

Shairon Martis

Collin Balester

Brad Meyers

Stephen Strasburg

God, I Hope Not!

Livan Hernandez

I'll be back with some bullpen discussion early next week.

Washington Nationals' Stephen Strasburg: LIVE AFL REPORT!!!

2009-11-02T16:30:23Z

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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Coming to you this afternoon from Surprise, Arizona, it's Federal Baseball.com's LIVE AFL Report, with Stephen Strasburg and the Phoenix Desert Dogs taking on the Surprise Rafters at 12:35 pm MST (2:35 pm EST) from sunny Surprise Stadium. The AFL East's No.1 team versus the AFL West's worst (or, uh, third place team). The Washington Nationals' '09 No. 1 overall pick, pitcher Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 6.97 ERA) and the Desert Dogs vs former Braves' and current Texas Rangers' pitching prospect Matt Harrison (1-1, 6.00 ERA) and the Rafters. I'll be providing updates here in the comments section, and posting thoughts and pics on the FEDERAL BASEBALL.com TWITTERFEED. (ed. note - The TwitterFeed is acting up, so I'm including it here...but apologizing in advance if it doesn't work right...at least I know our comment section will work...thanks, SBN!!")

MLB.com's AFL Scoreboard and GameDay Link...

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' Pitchers In 2010 + Fall Notes.

2009-11-02T03:00:30Z

More photos » by John Amis - AP

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With the help of The Bill James Handbook 2010 (available 11/1/09) and Acta Sports.com, who made Mr. James' Hitter and Pitcher projections available before the book's publication, we're able to take a look at what the future might hold for the pitchers expected to throw for the Nationals next season. Will Garrett Mock start or work out of the pen? Will some of the older pitchers like Craig Stammen and J.D. Martin make the rotation this time around? What will John Lannan's role be as more and more prospects rise through the system? What should fans expect from the Nationals' bullpen arms like Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal or Saul Rivera? After that, what one Chicago writer says about the Nationals' managerial search, and another night in the DWL with Ian Desmond...

After The JUMP...

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' Pitchers:

Collin Balester:

Balester, Collin	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	----	--	-	---	---
'09 Stats	7	7	30.1	20	10	1	4	6.82	0
2010 Projections	11	11	47.0	32	6	2	3	5.38	0

Jason Bergmann:

Bergmann, Jason	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	33	21	139.0	113	20	7	9	4.25	0
'09 Stats	56	0	48.0	40	7	2	4	4.50	0
2010 Projections	73	0	60.0	48	8	3	4	4.35	0

Sean Burnett:

Burnett, Sean	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	67	0	60.0	29	7	2	5	6.27	0
'09 Stats	71	0	57.2	43	6	2	3	3.12	1
2010 Projections	65	0	49.0	27	5	2	3	5.14	0

Tyler Clippard:

Clipper, Tyler	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	---	--
'09 Stats	41	0	60.1	67	9	4	2	2.69	0
2010 Projections	62	0	91.0	84	13	4	6	4.55	0

Livan Herandez?

Hernandez, Livan	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	27	27	150.0	84	19	8	9	4.90	0
'09 Stats	31	31	183.2	102	19	9	12	5.44	0
2010 Projections	31	31	188.0	103	23	8	13	4.98	0

Logan Kensing:

Kensing, Logan	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	43	0	46.0	45	6	2	3	4.33	0
'09 Stats	32	0	35.1	19	8	1	2	8.92	1
2010 Projections	36	0	41.0	38	8	2	3	4.81	0

John Lannan:

	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	29	29	177.0	103	18	9	11	4.08	0
'09 Stats	33	33	206.1	89	22	9	13	3.88	0
2010 Projections	32	32	199.0	101	21	11	11	4.03	0

Mike MacDougal:

MacDougal, Mike	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	----	---
'09 Stats	52	0	50.0	31	3	1	1	3.60	20
2010 Projections	67	0	67.0	59	4	3	4	4.43	4

J.D. Martin:

J.D. Martin	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	---	--
'09 Stats	15	15	77.0	37	14	5	4	4.44	0
2010 Projections	29	29	177.0	125	19	10	10	4.07	0

Shairon Martis:

Martis, Shairon	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	---	--
'09 Stats	15	15	85.2	34	11	5	3	5.25	0
2010 Projections	7	7	43.0	26	26	2	3	5.23	0

Garrett Mock:

Mock, Garrett	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	---	--
'09 Stats	28	15	91.1	72	9	3	10	5.62	0
2010 Projections	31	25	143.0	122	14	8	10	4.91	o

Scott Olsen:

Olsen, Scott	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	32	32	199.0	153	29	10	12	4.58	0
'09 Stats	11	11	62.2	42	11	2	4	6.03	0
2010 Projections	22	22	121.0	91	18	5	8	4.98	0

Saul Rivera:

Rivera, Saul	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	74	0	80	60	3	4	4	3.80	0
'09 Stats	30	0	38.1	21	7	1	3	6.10	0
2010 Projections	43.0	0	59.0	42	3	3	4	4.42	0

Craig Stammen:

Stammen, Craig	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	--	---	--	--	---	--	-	---	--
'09 Stats	19	19	105.2	48	14	4	7	5.11	0
2010 Projections	20	20	120.0	64	13	6	8	4.50	0

Ron Villone:

Villone, Ron	G	GS	IP	K	HR	W	L	ERA	SV
'09 Projections	76	0	42.0	36	4	2	2	4.22	0
'09 Stats	63	0	48.2	33	6	5	6	4.25	1
2010 Projections	71	0	54.0	44	5	3	3	4.33	0

?'s Raised By The #'s:

• Is there any room on the pitching staff for Logan Kensing in 2010? What bullpen arms from last year are you bringing back? Which would you part with?

• Which pitchers will make the twenty-ten rotation? Craig Stammen? Collin Balester? J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Do you expect anything from Scott Olsen?

• Mike MacDougal's projections are cleary skewed by the fact that he hadn't saved a game since 2006 before '09's 20 saves? Will MacDougal hold the closer's role throughout the twenty-ten campaign?

• A .500 season from John Lannan? Does that mean he'll finally receive some support this season? Is anyone guaranteed an 2010 rotation spot right now, outside of Lannan?

• Is Livan Hernandez coming back to DC next season?

2010 Skipper Search UPDATE:

If you haven't already read this when it was linked to in the comments of a previous post or elsewhere around the internet, since it was basically the only "news" to come out of DC this weekend, check out Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers "On Baseball" column entitled, "Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman in great demand", wherein, Mr. uh, Rogers writes (without citing a source, anonymous or otherwise) that the time for Bobby Valentine to claim a major league managing job may have passed:

"Bobby Valentine may be shut out on the job market. He was a finalist for the Indians job that went to Manny Acta, and it appears the Nationals are close to giving former Cubs manager Jim Riggleman the job he had on an interim basis last season."

Is the Washington Nationals' search for a full-time manager going to end with a promotion?

Saturday Night In The DWL:

The Tigres del Licey and Gigantes del Cibao squared off on Saturday with Nationals' infielder Ian Desmond starting at second for Licey and going 1 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly RBI, but it was Desmond's throwing error in the ninth that allowed the Gigantes to rally to tie the game at 3-3 and eventually steal a walk-off win when Tigres' pitcher Oneli Perez gave up a sac fly to left that ended it. Desmond's first DWL error proves costly. The 24-year-old, who impressed after his September call-up to DC, is now hitting .214 (6 for 28) with 7 RBI's in 8 games. Notes: Atahualpa Severino got a backwards K from the first batter he faced in the eighth after replacing Yhancy Brazoban, but Severino was out after allowing a run-scoring single in the next AB, though the run was Brazoban's.

Final Score: Gigantes 4, Tigres 3. MLB.com Box Score.

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi On The Washington Nationals. + AFL Update.

2009-11-01T03:00:29Z

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

"Can I take your bags, Adam?" Washington Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, 3B Ryan Zimmerman and 1B Adam Dunn wearing what Rolling Stones' Matt Taibbi describes as, "...bright-red uniforms that appeared to have been stolen off the backs of two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains." (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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Oh no! I'm turning the pages of the latest edition (RS 1091) of Rolling Stone magazine (the one with Shakira on the cover), and I get to the Sports column Matt Taibbi's been penning since the start of the football season as he takes a well-earned break from exposing Wall Street swindles, researching the sordid histories of companies like Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and attempting to explain terms like "credit-default swap" "naked short selling" and "collateralized debt obligations" to the masses, to let loose on America's Sunday institution, the National Football League, and in particular, in this column entitled, "How to Wreck a Team", the Washington Redskins and their owner Dan Snyder. "There's no way," I say to myself (and yes I talk to myself in complete sentences), "...that he's going to get through a column on DC sports without taking a shot at the Nationals." And sure enough, in the second paragraph, Mr. Taibbi goes for his own "Natinals" moment:

"You have a responsibility to deliver as a football owner when you live in a city whose only other diversions are a basketball team that used to be called the Bullets and a once-good baseball team that used to be called the Montreal Expos (before someone decided to douse its players in suck juice, dress them in bright-red uniforms that appeared to have been stolen off the backs of two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains and bus them to Washington)."

Huh? Not so bad...Taibbi even said the team was "once good", though, sorry DC fans, I think he means the Expos- version, I don't think his argument is as nuanced as to include the first-half-of-'05-Nationals under the heading of "once good" (seeing as how he also ignores the Capitals' existence since they don't fit his narrative), and as for the Nationals "dousing [their] players in suck juice" and outfitting them in the "bright-red uniforms" of "two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains", well, at least the Nationals aren't going to be saddled with a description like that which Mr. Taibbi forever attached to Goldman Sachs when he described "...the world's most powerful investment bank," as a, "...great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

The Nationals got off relatively easily, though the "suck juice" part hurts...Redskins' owner Dan Snyder...well he doesn't get off as easily as the Nationals...

BACKPAGE:

• Storen Saves!

• Strasburg Monday!

BACKPAGE:

• Storen Saves!

We'll skip the first eight innings of this afternoon's Phoenix Desert Dogs/Mesa Solar Sox AFL matchup since no DC prospects were involved until the Washington Nationals' second '09 1st Round pick Drew Storen took the mound in the ninth with Phoenix ahead 4-3 and the 9,1,2 batters in Mesa's order due up. Marlins' OF prospect Greg Burns sent a fly ball out to left for the first out of the inning, but then Storen surrendered a one-out single to another future Florida outfielder Bryan Petersen, who took second after Cubs' infield prospect Starlin Castro K'd and the #1 Prospect in Chicago's organization (according to Baseball America's '09 Rankings), third baseman Josh Vitters, hit a two-out single to put the tying run in scoring position. Two on, two out, 4-3 Phoenix lead. Storen vs David Cooper, the 5th best prospect in the Blue Jays' system (again acc to Baseball America), and Drew Storen gets a grounder and a force at second to end the D-Dogs' 11th AFL win and earn his second save.

Storen's Line: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 K, 20 pitches, 12 strikes, 5 BF. '09 AFL Stats: (1-0, 1.17 ERA), 2 SV, 7.2 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's.

Final Score - Desert Dogs 4, Solar Sox 3. MLB.com GameDay.

Desert Dogs now 11-6.

• Strasburg Monday!

The AFL released their weekend update entitled, "AFL Game Notes: Oct. 31 (PDF)", and in it they report that Stephen Strasburg will start for the Desert Dogs on Monday when they travel to Surprise, Arizona to take on the Surprise Rafters in a 12:35 pm MST start.

Matchup:

Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 6.97 ERA) vs Matt Harrison (1-1, 6.00 ERA).

(ed. note - "I was really hoping for a Strasburg/Crow matchup...")

Washington Nationals: Friday AFL/DWL Updates.

2009-10-31T15:03:40Z

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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AFL:

With the Phoenix Desert Dogs down 1-0 to the visiting Peoria Javelinas after six and a half innings, the Washington Nationals' second '06 1st Round pick and future first baseman, Chris Marrero, tied it with his third HR in 12 AFL games, this one off Phillipe Aumont, the top-rated pitcher and 3rd overall prospect in the Mariners' organization according to Baseball America's '09 rankings. The Javelinas rallied for four runs in the top of the eighth to retake the lead, and even a three-run eighth by the D-Dogs wasn't enough as Phoenix drops a 5-4 decision and falls to
10-6 overall, which is still good for 1st place in the three-team AFL East.

Notes: Marrero ended the game 2 for 4 with the HR, RBI and a .362 AVG after 47 AB's for Phoenix. Danny Espinosa got the start at short and went 1 for 4 with his second double as a Desert Dog. Espinosa's hitting .302 with a .360 OBP, 349 SLG and a .709 OPS after 12 games and 43 AB's in the AFL in which he's collected 2 doubles, 5 RBI's, 5 walks, 12 K's and 1 SB.

• Final Score: Javelinas 5, Desert Dogs 4 - MLB.com GameDay.

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• DWL's Tigres Win 3-1 Over Aguilas.

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• DWL's Tigres Win 3-1 Over Aguilas.

The Tigres del Licey broke a 1-1 tie with a two-run top of the eighth that saw former Nationals' reliever Julian Tavarez surrender the game-winning HR by to Kansas City Royals' catching prospect Matt Tupman. Washington Nationals' SS Ian Desmond finished the game 0 for 4, and the 24-year-old infielder is now hitting .192 after 7 games and 26 at bats with the Tigres. Nationals' pitching prospect Atahualpa Severino started the eighth by giving up a single, and two outs later he was lifted for former Dodgers' reliever Yhancy Brazoban who recorded the final out of the frame without a run crossing. Severino (0-0, 0.00), who went (10-0) with a 2.62 ERA and 15 saves at two stops in the Nationals' system in 2009, is still unscored upon in 7 appearances and 4.1 IP for Licey, in which he's allowed just 2 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 and holding DWL opponents to a .143 AVG.

• Final Score: Tigres 3, Aguilas 1. MLB.com.

Get Ready to Shred. Blueline's Offseason Suggestions

2009-10-27T05:19:55Z

As my beloved Nats plummeted to their second consecutive 59 win season (just think if they hadn't won the last seven!), it's clear to me that the old "lipstick on a pig" band-aid isn't going to work this offseason. Mike Rizzo and Co. have a lot of work to do, and though I'll have absolutely nothing to do with it, I'm going to brainstorm some ideas. I'm not the first member of this support group to do so, and I doubt I'll be the last. While I'll certainly comment on others' thoughts when they post them, I'm not necessarily saying my ideas are better or worse than anyone else's... sometimes they're just different (I remember feeling like I was coming off a bit antagonistic around the trade deadline in here, so.........). At any rate, my detailed ideas on what the Nats should do this offseason. I guess I'll begin by naming most of the current core:

C - Flores, ?????

1b - Dunn

2b - Desmond/Guzman

SS - Desmond/Guzman

3b - Zimmerman

LF - Willingham

CF - Morgan

RF - Dukes

Bench: Justin Maxwell, Willie Harris, Alberto Gonzalez, Pete Orr, Mike Morse

SP - Lannan, Detwiler, Olsen, and then the glut of Stammen/Mock/Balester/Martis/Martin and hopefully not Livan

RP - Clippard, Burnett, MacDougal, and no... I don't trust any of the rest (come to think of it, I don't trust MacDougal)

Primary Needs: A dependable starting middle infielder, two or three starters (at least one near the top of the rotation), and about 25 bullpen arms! I'd say closer, but paying top dollar for a closer is a waste when you can't get the game to him.

Analyzing what's available: Let's go with a top ten, including the likelihood that the Nats would have a chance at the player and that he'd be a good fit, in the starting pitching department: I'd set my budget around $25 to $30 million if I wanted to make the team competitive (challenging ..500).

1) Rich Harden (Type B), CHC - An injury waiting to happen? Most likely, though Harden has enjoyed consecutive pretty healthy (particularly for him) seasons the past two years after making just 16 appearances in 2006 and 2007 combined. Harden would be beneficial for the Nats in a handful of ways. For starters, if he's healthy, he'd absolutely be the ace of the staff. Secondly, he'd bring an excellent mentor for the few young power pitchers in the Nats' system (notably, Strasburg and the injured Jordan Zimmermann, though you could throw Detwiler in that mix a bit as well). What's more, Harden isn't coming off of his best season (4.09 ERA [4.35 FIP], 1.34 WHIP, though he's proven he can stay relatively healthy) and may be a bit devalued because of that.... despite the fact that he's just hitting his prime (27 years old). The assumption is that a great season could have pushed Harden towards a deal similar to that signed by A.J. Burnett with the Yankees last year. The more likely scenario is that he'll want to sign a relatively short-term (1 or 2 year) deal in the $4 to $6 million range. I say you take a shot at getting a potential ace cheap and spend up to $8 million per if you can get a third year tacked on with incentives that could push it a little over $10 million if he hits them. I feel Harden should be their top priority of all players available.

2) John Lackey (Type A), LAA - Chances are that he's priced out of what would be an acceptable gamble for the Nats to sign him. My plan centers around finding 5 or 6 players (2 starters, a starting middle infielder, and some bullpen arms, one of whom will be in the $3-5 million range) through free agency, and blowing half of that budget on one starter would fit into the "lipstick on a pig" that I started with. Barring the Diamondbacks declining Brandon Webb's option (not gonna happen), Lackey will be the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, and he's going to sign for $12 million+. I love the big game experience and the bulldog mentality. I do think that the Nats should throw their name into the proverbial hat and make a little run at him, but don't think he's a player worthy of breaking the bank for. He's also four years older than Harden.

3) Tim Hudson, ATL - I think he re-signs with the Braves (rumors are already flying that they pretty much have a done deal), so I'm not going to elaborate much. If not for the availability issues, I think Hudson would be a great fit if they could get the deal done at around $10 million per (about what the expectation is with Atlanta). I also think that if Hudson is going to sign a three year deal for between $27 and $30 million (the rumor), that means Lackey is certainly going to sign for at least $12 million.

4) Brett Myers, PHI - He's certainly been disappointing the past couple of years with the Phillies, but Myers has proven that he's capable of handling a top three spot on a contender throughout most of his career. At 29, there's still plenty left in the tank, and his disappointing (injury-marred) 2009 campaign probably bumps him down from the $8-10 million we would have expected him to sign for when he hit free agency in, say, 2007, to less than half of that. Myers is another good, proven (but still fairly young, at 29) option who likely signs a relatively short-term deal below market value so he can try and cash in next time around. Look for him to sign a 1 or 2 year deal for around $4 million per. That could be worth gambling on. Unlike Harden, I don't try and attach a couple of million onto a deal to try and add a third year.

5) Erik Bedard (Type B) , SEA - I'll be the first to say that signing both Bedard and Harden would probably end in disaster. That said, the small chance that they could both stay healthy could transform the Nats' rotation from one of the worst in the league to one of the top five. Bedard would be another guy looking to sign a short-term deal and have a big year wherever he goes to capitalize later. I think he signs for less than Harden (injury troubles are more recent), but I also don't feel quite as good about Bedard as I would about Harden. Expect him to sign an incentive laden deal for somewhere in the $3-4 million range.

6) Carl Pavano (Type B), MIN - A return to the National League should suit him, and while the traditional numbers don't completely bear it (5.10 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), he did have a pretty good season between the Tribe and the Twins (4.00 FIP). He's also a pretty solid indicator of what can happen when you sign a player below market value coming off of a bad year (or, in Pavano's case, contract). Pavano was signed for just $1.5 million with incentives by the Tribe last offseason.

7) Joel Pineiro (Type B), STL - I don't advocate signing 31-year-old pitchers with poor strikeout rates coming off of career years, but Pineiro could give the Nats a decent legitimate #3 starter. Now, if only they really had a legitimate #1 and #2 starter.

8) Vicente Padilla (Type B), LAD - Really was a pretty solid pitcher in Texas. He was outstanding in Los Angeles after returning to the National League. By no means is he a front-line type (the only real potential front-line starters that are on the market this season will be Lackey and Harden... maybe Bedard... maybe Sheets), but he's a nice middle of the rotation type. He's a league-average type who will sign in the $5-$6 million range.

9) Ben Sheets, FA - Didn't pitch at all this year. When he's healthy, he's one of the top 15-20 pitchers in the game. He's never healthy, though.

10) Jason Marquis (Type B), COL - I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Honestly, Randy Wolf would be a much better fit, but there's no way the Dodgers fail to retain him. I'd even prefer to go after an ageless wonder like Smoltz, Randy Johnson (who I assume retires), Tim Wakefield, or even Jose Contreras. Andy Pettitte is mysteriously absent from this list because I believe he retires if he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees.

My goal, above all else, would be to sign Rich Harden and then complement him with one of the other options listed (preferably a Myers or Bedard, who will both certainly be available, but I could live with a Pineiro or Padilla), setting up the Opening Day rotation as follows:

Rich Harden

John Lannan

Myers/Bedard/Pineiro/Padilla

A hopefully healthy Scott Olsen, who I think the club should offer arbitration to depending upon his rehab progress

Detwiler

Strasburg should begin the year at High A ball. Assuming he's progressing nicely, he should make a few starts at A+, a few at AA, and possibly some time in AAA before reaching the bigs. Be prudent and patient with him, and this isn't just to delay his arbitration clock. Let him develop.

Closers

Pretty much every decent, experienced closer available (with one exception, though I have a non-closer who could close I'd prefer over a few who is a Type A) is a Type A Free Agent, so if the Nats go after a closer, the top pick in the second round is history. So be it.

1) Rafael Soriano (Type A) - Screw the injury history when he was in Seattle. Soriano is hands down the best reliever on the market this season (he's also the youngest, at 30), and the fact that he has less career saves than most of the other closers on the market may keep his price somewhat reasonable. The safe money says that Atlanta re-signs either Soriano or Mike Gonzalez (not both), and whoever they don't sign ends up hitting the market. While the fact that Soriano served as their primary ninth inning guy this season would indicate that they'll probably try and retain Soriano, my belief is that they might feel they have a cheaper alternative in Gonzalez and let him walk. He should be worth $7 million+ even in this market, but I doubt he goes that high.

2) Jose Valverde (Type A) - Down year in the save department (25) because he missed May and the Astros weren't that great. He still displayed strong peripherals and big strikeout numbers. At 32, he's younger than any closer who could hit the market other than Rafael Soriano. Valverde has electric stuff, and he's crazy enough of a guy to continue succeeding in the ninth. The concern is that he has enough experience as a closer and strong enough numbers so that he'll be the highest-priced closer on the market, and it doesn't make much sense for a team that's won 118 games the past two years to put that much of a premium on the ninth inning.

3) Mike Gonzalez (Type A) - Depending upon who (if either of them, depending upon whether they accept arbitration) the Braves retain, Gonzalez would make for a fine addition at the back of the bullpen himself. He has plenty of experience in the closer's role, keeps the ball in the yard, and brings big strikeout production to the table. The problem is that he struggles with the walk at times, which means he'd fit right in (I guess).

4) Billy Wagner (Type A) - Unfortunately, his outstanding effort down the stretch for the Red Sox probably means he still sees a big contract. Wagner wants to close, which means he won't be staying in Boston, and he's still going to be fairly affordable after throwing just 62 innings the past two years. He's 38, but if that arm's healthy, it's got three more years in it.

5) Rafael Betancourt (Type A) - Neither Fernando Rodney nor Kevin Gregg excite me at all. Betancourt's option ($5.4 million) certainly won't be exercised by the Rockies, and he's probably going to sign in the $3 million range. A poor 2008 dropped his star quite a bit, but he served as arguably the top setup man in the game in Cleveland in 2007. After a decent rebound in Cleveland, he was an absolute monster for Colorado upon being acquired there. He's 35, has no real closing experience (18 years scattered throughout his 7 year career), but his stuff screams closer. He wouldn't be "draft & develop" cheap at the back of the bullpen, but he'd also be someone who could hold the fort until a guy like Storen may be ready to take over the role in a few years.

Other Bullpen Options

Kelvim Escobar - Talk about a rehab project, but the talent's certainly there if he's ever healthy again. Could be a steal as either a starter or a reliever.

J.J. Putz - All I can come up with from this list are rehab projects. Convert starters. There's not a chance in hell the Mets pick up his $9.15 million option.

Middle Infield

The ideal situation for me is trading Cristian Guzman for a solid prospect (anywhere on the field but 3b), finding a 2b, letting Desmond start, and rolling with either Pete Orr or Alberto Gonzalez as the utility infielder. The more likely scenario is that they can't find a taker for Guzman, in which case they should sign a 2b, start Guzman 4-5 times a week at SS, and allow Desmond to serve as a backup getting 4 starts a week between 2b and SS.

1) Chone Figgins (Type B), ANA - The good: Figgins had a terrific UZR/150 this year, actually ranking third at his position. The bad: Figgins has seen the bulk of his work at third base since 2007, and never really proved to be a very good defensive 2b earlier in his career. The ugly: Particularly since he's being projected as a Type B Free Agent and because he's coming off of his best season, Figgins is going to be highly sought after this offseason. I expect him to be priced out of the Nats' range, but I do believe that whoever signs him will sign him with the intent of moving him back to the middle infield. Nyjer Morgan's presence would drop his value a bit to the Nats, as they wouldn't need to have him take over the leadoff spot.

2) Orlando Hudson (Type A), LAD - I kind of flip-flop between whether they'd be better off going after a guy like Hudson or Placido Polanco, but I think that the fact that Polanco's hitting style mirrors that of Cristian Guzman so much means I'd rather have Hudson. Improved defensive metrics tell us that Hudson is certainly not the annual gold glove candidate he was earlier in his career... in fact, he's been below replacement level with his fielding at 2b the past two years (that's the plus for Polanco that makes me go back and forth). I think that what cinches my decision to go with Hudson over Polanco is the fact that he's two years younger, and probably is less likely to decline than Polanco.

3) Placido Polanco (Type A), DET - Apart from his absolute lack of patience (averaged 36 walks the past three years... which is actually higher than his numbers throughout his career), Polanco brings plenty to the table. He's a fantastic average-hitter who always puts the ball in play. He's consistently displayed double digit home run power since 2002. The former utility man has also turned himself into quite the defensive second baseman, having finished with a positive UZR/150 in each of the past seven seasons, including a +8.5 in 2009, leading all second basemen. He's good defensively, he's a great contact guy (read: hit & run behind Nyjer Morgan), and he probably won't be insanely expensive.

4) Felipe Lopez (Type B), ARI - Been there, done that. He's solid across the board, but Bowden shipped him away after struggling a bit for a year and a half.

5) Ronnie Belliard (Type B), LAD - Shrug. This is turning into a list of guys the Nats dealt away/let go. He tries to conceal his lack of range by playing in short right field, and usually does OK with it. He should certainly have been the starting 2b from the start of the year (though he wasn't 100%), but Acta botched that.

I could live with the Nats looking for a backup/co-starting catcher, given the fragility we've seen out of Flores the past couple of years. The available 1b don't excite me much, though I could live with the Nats trying to sign Hank Blalock if they can do so cheaply (won't happen) to free up Dunn or Willingham on the trade market a bit more. I don't see an outfielder I'd break the bank on, and think they're better off rolling with Hammer, Morgan, and Dukes (with Maxwell as a roving fourth outfielder and [hopefully] a healthy Bernadina as the number five).

So, with all the options out there, here's what I'm thinking. Again, limit the budget to $25-$30 million. I'm not going to go overly aggressive with any of the figures, but I'll try and be realistic:

1) Sign Rich Harden (3 years, $7 million per with incentives that could push it up to $10 million per if he reaches them)

2) Sign Brett Myers (2 years, $4 million per)

3) Offer Scott Olsen arbitration

4) Commit to Ross Detwiler remaining in the rotation full-time

5) Sign Rafael Soriano (3 years, $7 million per) or Mike Gonzalez (2 years, $4 million per) or Rafael Betancourt (2 years, $3.5 million per)

6) Sign Joaquin Benoit (1 year, $2 million)

7) Sign Placido Polanco (3 years, $7 million per)

Going with the highest end options on that list, (Harden, reaching the incentives for $10, Myers for $4, Soriano for $7, Benoit for $2, and Polanco for $7), we're looking at $30 million. While I feel that the $7 or $8 million may be high for a proven injury risk like Harden, teams like the Nats are going to have to overpay a bit because they're not going to get players to pick them as a "winning destination." It's a pretty similar situation with Polanco (it would appear the Tigers are going to decline his $6 million option for this season because of Magglio Ordonez's $18 million vesting option kicking in). In this scenario, here's what the club would look like next season:

C - Flores/???? (Nieves, most likely... yuck)

1b - Dunn

2b - Polanco/Desmond

SS - Guzman/Desmond

3b - Zimmerman

LF - Willingham

CF - Morgan

RF - Dukes

Bench: Justin Maxwell, Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond, Mike Morse, Wil Nieves

SP - Harden

SP - Lannan

SP - Myers

SP - Olsen

SP - Detwiler

CP - Soriano/Gonzalez/Betancourt

Setup - Clippard

LH Setup - Burnett

RP - Benoit

RP - MacDougal

And then piece the rest of the bullpen together with converted starters, though Storen looks like he may play a role by the end of 2010.

Washington Nationals: AFL/Skipper Search Updates.

2009-10-30T06:00:03Z

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

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AFL:

Five Peoria Saguaros' pitchers combined to shut out the Phoenix Desert Dogs Thursday at the Peoria Sports Complex. Three Nationals' prospects were in the lineup, with Danny Espinosa at second and batting second, Chris Marrero at first, hitting fifth and catcher Sean Rooney behind the plate and in the eight spot. Espinosa was 1 for 4 with a one-out single in the first, and the Desert Dogs didn't get another hit until Marrero singled to start the fifth. A DP grounder erased Marrero there, and he was stranded at first after hitting a two-out single in the seventh. Sean Rooney was 0 for 3, lowering his AFL AVG to .125 with 1 hit in 3 games and 8 at bats, and the 23-year-old catcher committed his first error with Phoenix on a throw to second on a stolen base attempt in the sixth which allowed the runner to take third. Chris Marrero committed his 4th error in 11 AFL games and his 24th error overall in 139 games played this season between Woodbridge, Virginia, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania and Phoenix, AZ. After the loss, Marrero, the 21-year-old '07 1st Round pick, is hitting .349 with a .440 OBP in 43 AB's. Espinosa's hitting .308 with a double and 5 RBI's in 39 at bats. The Desert Dogs are 10-5.

Final Score: Saguaros 4, Desert Dogs 0. MLB.com GameDay.

BACKPAGE:

• Crow Threw Wednesday.

• Latest on the DC Skipper Search.

BACKPAGE:

• Crow Threw Wednesday.

Aaron Crow, the Nationals' unsigned '08 1st Round pick, who was subsequently drafted and signed by the Royals in 2009, made his Fall League debut with the Surprise Rafters Wednesday afternoon, suffering a loss in his first start after allowing 3 hits and 2 ER in 4.0 IP over which the soon-to-be-22-year-old right-hander threw 59 pitches, 38 for strikes, with a low-to-mid 90's fastball, a slider, sinker and change on display.

• Latest on the DC Skipper Search.

SI.com's Jon Heyman has the latest conjecture about the Nationals' search for a new (or full-time) manager in the "Notes" section of an article published Thursday entitled, "Cliff Lee's payday is coming soon", where Mr. Heyman wrote:

"Though the Nationals have expressed interest in Bobby Valentine, they are believed to want to keep their managerial salary under $1 million. It's getting harder to imagine that they will replace interim Jim Riggleman."

Valentine reportedly made around $4 million a year while managing the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan, so it's also hard to imagine the 59-year-old manager taking $3M less to manage in the majors.

Washington Post writer Tom Boswell hosted a chat Thursday afternoon entitled, "Ask Boswell: World Series, Redskins, Nats, Caps and More", during which Mr. Boswell responded to a question about the Nationals' skipper search by stating that, "...(Jim) Riggleman suits this team right now," and, "...at a time when the Nats need all the good will they can get, is one of the few people in baseball who are overjoyed," to manage in DC.

That's 2-1 in favor of Riggleman amongst those voicing their opinions...

World Series GameThread: Philadephia vs NY.

2009-10-30T00:02:16Z

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

9 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies watch the top of the ninth inning from their dugout during Game 2 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009, in New York. The Yankees defeated the Phillies 3-1 to tie the series 1-1. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Final - 10.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	0
New York Yankees	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	X	3	8	0
WP: A.J. Burnett (1 - 0) SV: Mariano Rivera (1) LP: Pedro Martinez (0 - 1)

Complete Coverage >

A.J. Burnett

#34 / Pitcher / New York Yankees

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 03, 1977

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - A.J. Burnett	13-9	33	33	1	0	0	0	207.0	193	99	93	25	97	195	4.04	1.40

Pedro Martinez

#45 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 25, 1971

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pedro Martinez	5-1	9	9	0	0	0	0	44.2	48	18	18	7	8	37	3.63	1.25

• Who's Watching The Nationals...The Series?

MiLB.com's Jonathan Mayo sent a tweet out this morning with a link to these Project Prospect.com...

2009-10-29T18:31:29Z

Find more videos like this on ProspectTube.com

MiLB.com's Jonathan Mayo sent a tweet out this morning with a link to these Project Prospect.com videos of Stephen Strasburg's last start (10/27) against the Surprise Rafters. There are six videos total that you can check out HERE.

Washington Nationals: AFL/DWL Update...Nationals Fans In A Reality Series?

2009-10-29T16:00:35Z

More photos » by Gerald Herbert - AP

5 months ago: Washington Nationals assistant general manager and vice president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, right, introduces pitcher Drew Storen, the team's first-round draft pick and 10th pick overall in the baseball draft during a news conference at Nationals Stadium in Washington, on Wednesday, June 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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• AFL:

The only Nationals' prospects in action on Wednesday in the AFL were on the mound as Jeff Mandel and Drew Storen both saw action in the Phoenix Desert Dogs' 11-6 win over the Peoria Javelinas. Mandel, Washington's 24-year-old right-handed '07 19th Round pick, threw a 1-2-3 5th after replacing D-Dogs' starter Mitch Talbot, a second-round pick by the Astros in 2002, who was traded to Tampa Bay, along with Ben Zobrist, in a deal that sent Aubrey Huff to Houston. Mandel gave up a leadoff single and a one-out RBI double in the sixth before back to back groundouts ended the inning. Mandel's Line: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K's, 3.00 ERA, 31 pitches, 21 strikes.

Drew Storen, the Nationals' 2nd '09 1st Round pick pitched a scoreless ninth for Phoenix, striking out Dodgers' catching prospect Jesse Mier with a slider, curve and change all low in the zone in the mid-80s', popping up Tigers' shortstop Cale Iorg with a 1-1 fastball at 95, and giving up a two-out double to LA IF prospect Justin Sellers on a 2-2 slider before a two-out groundout by Trayvon Robinson on a first-pitch fastball ends the game. Storen's Line: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 1.35 ERA, 12 pitches, 9 strikes.

Final Score - Desert Dogs 11, Javelinas 6. - MLB.com's Gameday.

BACKPAGE:

• DWL Update: Desmond's Still Crushing Pitches.

• Washington Nationals Fans + Reality TV = Ratings Gold.

BACKPAGE:

• DWL Update: Desmond's Still Crushing Pitches.

Ian Desmond's first HR for the Dominican Winter League's Tigres del Licey was a two-run blast and a game-winner that came in the seventh inning of Wednesday's 5-2 win over the Toros del Este. Desmond ends the game 2 for 4 with a run scored, a HR and 3 RBI's, leaving the Nationals' 24-year-old infielder hitting .227 after 6 games and 22 AB's for Licey.

• Final Score - Tigres 5, Toros 2. MLB.com Box Score.

• LIST: Nationals' Prospects in the Winter Leagues.

• Washington Nationals Fans + Reality TV = Ratings Gold.

MASN and We've Got Heart's Kristen Hudak has a post up at MASNSports.com entitled, "Casting Call: Nats Reality Series", where Ms. Hudak reports that IMG Studios is, "...looking for die-hard Nationals fans to appear in a series starting this offseason," which will focus, according to an IMG Studios casting call, on, "...a person or group of friends [who] find it hard to balance an active social, romantic relationship, work or family with the "other person" (the Nationals) in their life." Anyone interested should send a biographical paragraph and a photograph to: muvena@interfacemedia.com.. Good luck...Anyone from Federal Baseball.com who gets on this will be outfitted with a wardrobe of FB gear...

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' 2010 Infield.

2009-10-29T03:03:13Z

More photos » by John Amis - AP

7 months ago: Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, is congratulated at home plate by left fielder Adam Dunn (44) and shortstop Cristian Guzman (15) after his two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning of a baseball game on Saturday, April 11, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Can Adam Dunn get back up to the 40 HR plateau? Will Ryan Zimmerman hit more than last-year's career high 33 HR's? If Cristian Guzman's going to be at short or second, what can DC fans expect from the soon-to-be 32-year-old infielder? With the help of the Hitter Projections contained in the soon-to-be-published twenty-ten edition of The Bill James Handbook 2010, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what Nationals fans can expect from the Nationals' infield, which, barring the acquisition of another infielder, will most likely be composed of Ryan Zimmerman at third, Ian Desmond at short, Cristian Guzman at second and Adam Dunn at first base, though some argue that Desmond's not ready to play everday. (ed. note - "Bill James has Desmond playing in 145 games...Thanks to Mr. James and the book's publisher, Acta Sports, for making a preview of the Pitcher and Hitter Projections available.")

DC Infield Hitter Projections...After The Jump...

(ed. note - "Check out the Projections for the Nationals' 2010 Outfield HERE.")

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' Infield:

Ryan Zimmerman - 3B:

Zimmerman, Ryan	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	145	576	167	42	22	87	.290	.351	.484
'09 Stats	157	610	178	37	33	106	.292	.364	.525
2010 Projections	149	593	171	42	28	98	.286	.358	.511

Ian Desmond - SS:

Desmond, Ian	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
'09 Stats	21	82	23	7	4	12	.280	.318	.561
2010 Projections	145	518	146	33	13	52	.282	.336	.432

Cristian Guzman - 2B:

Guzman, Cristian	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	137	496	145	26	7	45	.292	.329	.407
'09 Stats	135	531	151	24	6	52	.284	.306	.390
2010 Projections	136	550	155	26	7	49	.282	.313	.365

Adam Dunn - 1B:

Dunn, Adam	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	159	562	137	30	42	103	.246	.386	.527
'09 Stats	159	546	146	29	38	105	.267	.398	.529
2010 Projections	159	562	141	30	40	103	.251	.389	.518

Jesus Flores - C:

Flores, Jesus	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	135	436	109	26	12	81	.250	.304	.397
'09 Stats	29	93	28	3	4	15	.301	.371	.505
2010 Projections	116	431	114	22	13	75	.265	.323	.415

• Notes on the #'s, ?'s Raised:

-- MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote recently, in an article entitled, "Nats Inbox: What's in store for Storen", that, "...there is a question about [Ian Desmond's] defense. He made over 30 errors this past season," (34 total between Harrisburg, Syracuse and DC, I checked) and as a result, "...some members of the organization have some doubts," about whether Desmond is ready for an everyday role in the majors. If, as Mr. James predicts, Desmond's able to hit 33 doubles and 13 HR's with a .282 AVG, can the errors be overlooked? Or do the Nationals need to bring in a veteran infielder?

-- Aside from effect Adam Dunn had on the offense with his own contributions, can we agree that he clearly had an effect on the pitches Ryan Zimmerman saw this season? To what else would you attribute Zimmerman's increased offensive output? Is it just Zimmerman maturing and improving at the plate? When did you realize Dunn wouldn't hit 40 HR's? Will he get back there next year?

-- Are you ready for another 115-130 singles by Cristian Guzman? I know a lot of people are tired of his empty average and slow feet, but is there any way to move his $8M dollar contract?

-- 116 games for Jesus Flores? Let's hope so...Who'll be backing Flores up in 2010?

- Bill James' Projections:

• Wil Nieves:

- '09 Stats - 72 G, 58 for 224, .259 AVG, 6 2B, 1 HR, 26 RBI's, .313 OBP, .299 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 74 G, 47 for 187, .251 AVG, 8 2B, 2 HR, 17 RBI's, .293 OBP, .337 SLG.

• Josh Bard:

- '09 Stats - 90 G, 63 for 274, .230 AVG, 18 2B, 6 HR's, 31 RBI's, .293 OBP, .361 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 84 G, 56 for 232, .241 AVG, 15 2B, 4 HR's, 27 RBI's, .313 OBP, .358 SLG.

-- With Flores back in the lineup, (batting sixth?), behind, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes, three to six, Nyjer Morgan and Cristian Guzman one and two, and either Ian Desmond, (Guzman?) or another infielder in the eight spot, do the Nationals stand a chance in the NL East in 2010?