Fish Stripes

Game 38: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

2012-05-17T20:11:05Z

Next Game

Miami Marlins
@ Atlanta Braves

Thursday, May 17, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Turner Field

Ricky Nolasco vs Brandon Beachy

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Get your mini-brooms out, because the Miami Marlins are going for the mini-sweep.

The Fish are looking to sweep the mini-series in Atlanta versus the Atlanta Braves, while the Braves try to fight things off with one of the team's best performing starters thus far. The Marlins will throw out one of their own top performers, though his peripherals have been in decline in the last two seasons and the question of whether he will continue this performance is still very much in the air. In the middle of all of this is one offense in the Braves' that has been one of the best in baseball versus an offense in the Marlins' that has been one of the hottest in the league.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Pirates	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.454	4.37	4.01	3.65	Nolasco	Beachy	1.60	2.73	3.33	.581

The Marlins have been happy with Ricky Nolasco thus far this season, in part because he is finally posting a sub-4.00 ERA. Unfortunately, Nolasco's peripherals still have not caught up to his ERA, as his strikeout rate is at the lowest of his career and his walk rate is at its highest since 2007. He has allowed fewer home runs this year, in part because of his 49 percent ground ball rate, but it should be interesting to see if he can keep it up. Personally, I think this may all end very soon, and in his last start against the New York Mets, that started to happen, as he allowed six runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched.

Brandon Beachy has also lost a lot of his peripherals mojo from last season. His strikeout rate has fallen from 28 percent in 2011 to 18 percent this year in 2012. He has held hitters down with a combination of being stingy on home runs (just one allowed in 45 innings pitched) and allowing a .219 BABIP thus far. Like Nolasco, there is a very good chance he is likely to see some regression, as his 4.01 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA suggests.

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1	Jose Reyes	.350
2	Omar Infante	.321
3	Hanley Ramirez	.351
4	Logan Morrison	.364
5	Giancarlo Stanton	.373
6	Gaby Sanchez	.290
7	Emilio Bonifacio	.305
8	Brett Hayes	.269

Notes

- We saw and the Marlins conquered Mike Minor last night. Over at Talking Chop, gondeee writes that perhaps Mike Minor has the same issue we suspect Nolasco has, a problem with pitching out of the stretch.

Bold Prediction: Braves def. Marlins 5-3

Ozzie Guillen, The Book, and Cleanup Spots

2012-05-17T13:24:44Z

In the Miami Marlins' 8-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves last night, Austin Kearns was surprisingly our Hero of the Game for the purposes of Ichthyomancy. The backup outfielder went two for four with two doubles, including a two-RBI double in the third inning that put the Marlins on the board and had them take a 2-1 lead. The Fish never looked back, as their offense mowed down the Braves' pitchers en route to another high-output evening. It is worth noting that Kearns batted fourth in the lineup and that this was his seventh time hitting cleanup for the Fish this season.

It is that last sentence that grates on most Marlins fans. Austin Kearns was replacing Logan Morrison in left field, and Morrison usually bats cleanup for the Fish. We detailed a few days ago why that may be a slight misuse of Morrison's talents, but we mentioned that this is not a big deal in the long run. Well, having Kearns, who does not project as a good hitter, is also not a big deal in the long run. It is not good for the team, but it certainly is not the end of the world, especially for one to two games per week.

So why write about it? It just goes to show you that Ozzie Guillen is either so in tune with his players that he knows that the slightest twitch in their lineup slot would cause undue panic to them or he is simply throwing away fractions of runs every few games for no apparent reason.

Lessons From The Book

In this space, I have often touted The Book: Playing the Percentages In Baseball as a must-read for Fish Stripes readers, and I still encourage everyone on here to pick it up and take a gander at it, as it is the most interesting baseball read I have ever gone through. One of the coolest chapters that saber-friendly bloggers use often is the one on batting lineups. The batting lineup chapter uses the particular base-out states that are unique to each batting lineup and come up with a strategy and a profile for the lineup slots designed to maximize run scoring with the given personnel.

You have seen the basic rule of lineup writing written here before, but I will reiterate it here.

The Book Says:

Your three best hitters should hit somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

This is a little counter-intuitive to traditional thinking, but it does not sound the least bit far-fetched. Of course, a number of managers do not do these things, and Ozzie Guillen is no different. But the Kearns maneuver is perhaps the most egregious, head-scratching error among the many that Guillen has made with regards to the lineup. Take a look at the 2012 lines and projections for Kearns versus Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton.

Player, 2012	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Austin Kearns	.263	.333	.553	.382
Logan Morrison	.274	.360	.379	.323
Giancarlo Stanton	.281	.338	.508	.360

Player, ZiPS Proj	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Austin Kearns	.224	.327	.351	.303
Logan Morrison	.261	.359	.443	.348
Giancarlo Stanton	.269	.358	.540	.381

Yes, Kearns is the best hitter among the three in 2012, but I do not think even Ozzie Guillen would be so foolish to make a declaration of Kearns being better than either player after just 42 PA in 2012. In other words, Guillen must think that Kearns is not as good as either Morrison or Stanton, or he would have at least begun starting Kearns over Morrison rather than having him fill in occasionally. The projections may not be as good at telling microscopic changes in Austin Kearns's approach and work at the plate in this sample size, but it is very good at coming up with accurate projections of the future based on Kearns's current work and his vast history at the plate. It does not think very highly of Kearns.

So why is is that, in one of the three most important lineup slots, Guillen is using one of the team's projected worst hitters? Even the traditionalist view sees the cleanup spot as probably the place of the team's second-best hitter, so why is Kearns manning the spot in the absence of Morrison? Greg Dobbs once manned the position as well when he substituted for Morrison in left field in one game. Apparently, Guillen's response is that the left fielder and the left fielder alone deserves the shot at cleaning up for the Marlins, despite the fact that the team has a currently very hot right fielder who has hit seven home runs in the month of May.

Now, it is fair to point out that a lot of managers do not manage that way. Maybe this is the most egregious error, but a lot of managers make errors with their lineup writing. But it is frustrating to see Guillen do something like this while other managers move to smarter, more logical lineups. For example, Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta recently tried a lineup shift involving batting Shin-Soo Choo and his career .383 OBP to the leadoff spot. This resulted in a pretty solid order, as mentioned by ESPN SweetSpot's Christina Kahrl.

Choo was followed by second baseman Jason Kipnis in his usual slot, then Asdrubal Cabrera, then Carlos Santana. If that sounds to you like every good Indians batter, stacked up in a row, you’d be right. But with Choo’s .362 OBP (pre-game) up front, it gave manager Manny Acta some big-inning potential, and when Minnesota's Jason Marquis got into trouble in the fifth, there was no easier out for him to get, and they cranked a trio of home runsbefore Ron Gardenhire could get him off the mound.

Now, the Marlins are not all that far off from doing that on a normal basis. One figures that if the Fish put, say, Logan Morrison batting second and Giancarlo Stanton batting fourth, they too would have their four best hitters hitting in the top four slots. When Austin Kearns plays, perhaps the Marlins should move Stanton to cleanup and have their four best guys batting at the top (presuming Omar Infante is a bit better than Gaby Sanchez, with which the projections do not agree). But what is frustrating is that Guillen has batted around the idea of either Infante or Bonifacio batting in the second slot when neither hitter is among the team's four best hitters really, and Guillen also continues to just give away the cleanup spot to left fielders regardless of merit, while other managers like Acta are moving towards lineups that are logical and involve the team's best hitters at the top.

It's All In the Approach

And therein lies the problem with Guillen's current managerial style. It is not as if the Marlins are losing a ton of runs by batting Austin Kearns cleanup instead of seventh or eighth like he should be. If you maximized the lineup order as much as possible, following every guideline in The Book to a tee, you maybe could squeeze out 10 to 20 runs in one season. Now, that actually sounds like a lot, on the order of at most two wins just by moving your lineup around. But with Austin Kearns in particular, with the frequency that he plays, we would be talking about something more like one run or so. So getting on Ozzie Guillen about one move is not really substantial.

However, it is the thought process that makes Marlins fans go crazy. The thought process that keeping the continuity of the rest of the team's lineup is more important in the current game than putting your best lineup out there statistically is a likely foolhardy idea. The thought here is that the rest of the Marlins would be affected more severely by having their spot in the lineup changed on those evenings than the team would be hurt by having Kearns bat fourth. Either Guillen is so in tune with Stanton and Sanchez that he knows they would struggle more if they were moved than if Kearns batted fourth, or this idea is simply ridiculous. If the former is not the case (and there is no way to really tell, since we would have to ask the hitters themselves), then Guillen is simply throwing away fractions of runs here.

Again, one move is not the problem, but it is the sum of these sorts of managerial moves, based on the managerial thinking process that Guillen uses, that is so frustrating. Guillen's management of Heath Bell has been very loyal despite the fact that something appears to be wrong with him. Guillen's insistence on keeping Steve Cishek, who has the best track record since 2011 among the Marlins' bullpen pitchers, in the seventh inning in lower-leverage situations is also strange. His rest pattern for Logan Morrison is confusing, though we do not know whether Morrison is injured or not. All of these decisions could very well be costing the Marlins potential runs, runs that Guillen is simply throwing away, while other managers may be making some use of those runs.

Of course, it could turn out that some of these moves, such as Morrison's rest patterns, are appropriate. Maybe Morrison is injured and we do not know it. Maybe Stanton is lacking confidence in his ability to bat cleanup, so Guillen is withholding him from the position. But given Guillen's history as a staunch traditionalist in the world of managing, it is highly unlikely that he is doing anything other than being unusually traditional in his decision-making and weighing things like continuity of lineup order a little too heavily. And at the end of the season, the Marlins may have lost five to ten runs because of Guillen's various mishaps. That may not sound like much, but again, it could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs for a team on the brink like the Marlins.

Guillen may have a new book on his "School of Management" (by the way, I got a copy and will read it at first chance), but maybe his book is not up to date with the latest information and, as a result, is costing his team. He may be a motivator and a great manager in the clubhouse, but he certainly is at best an oddity of a manager on the field.

Three Dominican Prospects Of Interest for Marlins

2012-05-17T10:00:12Z

The Dominican Republic has produced more major league baseball players than any other international country. With all of the academies popping up around the D.R., that doesn't look like it is going to change. Both Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes were born in the Dominican Republic, and a couple of the Marlins top prospects are from the D.R. as well. The international signing period begins July 2nd, and this year is sure to be interesting, because of baseball's new CBA. For the first time ever, teams will be limited to how much money they can spend on international prospects. The new cap ($2.9 million) shouldn't affect the Marlins as much as it will other organizations, but it will still limit some of the players they can go after. Here are a couple of prospects that I would love to see sign with the Marlins.

Before we get to the prospects, let's clear a couple of things up. First of all, my goal isn't to tell you who the top unsigned Dominican prospects are. The consensus #1 Latin American prospect, Gustavo Cabrera, probably will sign with another team just due to their presence in the Dominican Republic. However, the top-rated prospect doesn't always become the most valuable player out of the bunch. For example, the best power hitter in the Marlins' system, twenty-one year old Marcell Ozuna, signed with the Marlins for only $50,000 in 2007.

Secondly, the Marlins don't exactly have a great reputation for giving out huge contracts to Dominican teenagers. Miami has always been one of the organizations that consistently give out the least amount of money in international signing bonuses. However, with a new stadium and a bigger payroll, that could change very soon.

Also, I have not seen any of these players in person. All my information about these prospects comes from people who have seen them, and people who have talked to people who have seen them. I've seen video of all three players, but that doesn't compare to seeing them play in-person. Unfortunately, unless someone would like to send me down to the Dominican Republic, I most likely won't have the chance to see these players before they sign. Without further ado, let's finally get to the prospects!

Deivi Grullon, C: Grullon is without a doubt the top catching prospect in this year's international free agent class. He was born on February 17th, 1996 in Bonao, D.R, the same city where Carlos Marmol is from. He is listed at 6' 180 lbs. but from what I have seen it looks like that could be a little friendly in the weight department. His body type reminds me of Carlos Santana, except a little bit smaller.

As a right-handed hitter, Grullon gets his power from a high leg kick before each pitch. Truthfully, if you looked at Grullon from a distance, you'd expect him to be much more of a power hitter but apparently that's not the case. From most accounts, Grullon is rumored to have gap power but not much more. He's not supposedly a very slow runner right now, but his body frame will make lead him to below-average speed in the future. The best tool Grullon currently possesses is his arm. Apparently, Grullon can throw in the mid-80's, and the Dominican Prospect League found that Grullon's pop times are around 1.95. The major league average is right around 1.90. Also, don't forget that Grullon's already impressive arm will probably get stronger as he gets older.

The transition from a Spanish-speaking country to the U.S.A is harder for a catcher than it is for any other position. Catchers have to be able to communicate with their pitchers, and that's very difficult if the catcher and pitcher speak different languages. Catchers like Ronny Paulino have shown that it is possible to be a major league catcher with English as your second language, so it definitely is possible. However, it's far from easy.

Overall, I think Grullon would be a great investment for the Marlins. For a farm system that is derived of legitimate catching prospects, Grullon could become the Miami catcher of the future very fast. He will never be a power hitter, but he could become the type of hitter Yadier Molina was in 2007. In 2007, Molina hit .275 with six homers and low strikeout and walk rates. I really like Grullon, and I'd be surprised if the Marlins didn't like him as well.

Frandy Delarosa, SS: Ah, another Dominican shortstop. Frandy De La Rosa is a wiry switch-hitting prospect who was born on January 24^th, 1996. He is a man of many names as well. I have seen him listed as Frandi, Frandy De La Rosa, and Frandy Delarosa. His best skill is supposedly his bat, and his worst skill is his arm. Some people think that Delarosa will be forced to move from shortstop because of his weak arm. However, other than his arm the rest of his defensive qualities are amazing. Delarosa has soft hands, and covers a lot of range at shortstop.

For a young and skinny shortstop, Delarosa hits the ball surprisingly hard. A lot of this is because Delarosa moves the bat through the zone very quickly for a sixteen year old shortstop. He doesn't sell out for power, and he makes solid contact very often. Also, according to MLB.com, Delarosa has good makeup and is mature for his age. While that is always a good thing to hear, it might be something they heard from one of his agent's or coaches trying to boost his stock.

Dominican shortstops are pretty popular commodities among major league teams, and the Marlins will have to make an enticing offer to Delarosa if they want to sign him. I think he could develop into a very good prospect because of his switch-hitting, and ability to make solid contact. However, he definitely will need to get a lot stronger to continue to excel at a higher level.

Leury Vargas, CI: My first two players were pretty highly-regarded Dominican prospects. Leury Vargas, on the other hand, is not likely to draw a contract similar to the first two. However, there is still a lot to like about this young first baseman. He can hit for contact pretty well, and is rumored to have elite power potential. Not to mention, he is the youngest player not only out of these three, but also the entire Dominican Prospect League.

First of all, let's get something out of the way. Vargas is not a third baseman. No matter how much it could potentially boost his stock, I don't think the team that signs him will see him as a third baseman. A lot of this is due to his 6'3'' 220 pound frame. He might appear clumsy, but a lot of that is due to his huge body at a young age. However, he is definitely not slow for size.

What I like the most about Vargas is his left-handed swing. Although he could probably generate more power by using his legs more, his swing is beautiful as it is. He appears to be in rhythm during the course of the at-bat. He is very quick to the ball by moving his hands through the zone extremely fast, which scouts love. Here is a link to a video of Vargas hitting.

Overall, I will be thrilled if the Marlins sign any of these players. These three players are very different as individual athletes, but all three have a chance to play in the majors. Whether it's signing the top catching prospect in Grullon, or going after a lesser-known prospect like Vargas, the Marlins need to make an impact in the Dominican Republic this year.

Fish Cap: Marlins 8, Braves 4

2012-05-17T03:17:55Z

Two three-inning runs for the Marlins helped them get their first win of a short two-game series over Atlanta, 8-4. Mark Buerhle receives his third win of the season and Giancarlo Stanton belted a two-run home run in the seventh to seal a big road win.

Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 21,106

Hero of the Game: Austin Kearns (.021)

Goat of the Game: John Buck (- 0.06) (Buehrle received the same score, but since he got the win, he's off the hook.)

Play of the Game: Austin Kearns two-run RBI double in the fourth inning.

Coming into tonight's game, Miami struggled to find a win on the road. They had a seven-game losing streak on their backs coming into the capital of Georgia. Now, as many bad streaks have this season, this one is forgotten.

The Marlins did everything they could early to put some runs up for their starter Mark Buehrle tonight. Coming into tonight, the former White Sox ace couldn't get much run support. He didn't have that worry about.

A three-run fourth followed up by a three-run fifth put the Marlins in good position to end their division road losing streak, but it was Giancarlo Stanton who sealed the deal on each side of field -- a two-run home run in the seventh after making a leaping dive saving two runs in the fourth.

Buerhle had it all going for him. He did allow four earned runs in his six innings of work, however, opposing starter Mike Minor only went 4.2 innings while allowing the six runs in the two big middle innings.

Atlanta did try to make things interesting by scoring three in the sixth, but Steve Cishek and Randy Choate came in to secure that lead. Choate picked up six sixth hold of the season.

Omar Infante keeps his bat hot with a 3-for-5 night, all singles. Austin Kearns made his presence known through a two-double night as he brought in the pair in the fourth.

Atlanta and the Fish go back at it Thursday with a 7:10 p.m. first pitch.

Game 37: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

2012-05-16T20:10:04Z

Current Series

2 game series vs Braves @ Turner Field

Miami Marlins Fish Stripes @ Atlanta Braves Talking Chop Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT Turner Field Mark Buehrle vs Mike Minor Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80. Complete Coverage >
Thu 05/17		7:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are going from one miniseries to another, as they turn around from their two-game spit with the Pittsburgh Pirates and immediately head to my current neck of the woods, Atlanta, to face the Atlanta Braves. The Fish are looking to get away with a couple of wins on the road to start their small road trip before heading back home for an extended home stand, while the Braves are looking to keep up with the class of the NL East and beat a local division rival. As for me, I'm disappointed that I will be too busy to make it to a game, sadly.

Tale of the Tape

Marlins	Stat (Rank)	Braves
.307 (17)	wOBA	.331 (5)
89 (20)	wRC+	108 (6)
3.33 (6)	ERA	4.09 (21)
3.38 (3)	FIP	3.79 (12)

The Braves have done a complete 180 degree turn on their plan for success and victory in 2012. Whereas last season, they found their way to wins via their pitching staff and their superior bullpen, this year the Braves have been doing it by absolutely mashing the ball. A number of their contributors that struggled last season have rebounded quite well this year, including Jason Heyward (.361 wOBA) and Martin Prado (.356 wOBA). Meanwhile, they have not pitched up to their peripherals, in part because of bad luck and in part because of defensive struggles, particularly of their infield.

The Marlins are continuing to use the same formula they have all season. The team has continued to get good performances from their pitchers, particularly their starting staff, while the hitters somehow have found a way to produce just enough runs to win. The plan has worked for most of May, so let us see how these two opposing forces collide in the two-game series.

Stadium: Turner Field

Area	Dimensions (ft)
Left Field	335
Left-Center	380
Center Field	401
Right-Center	390
Right Field	330

Five-Year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-Year Home Run PF*: 0.98

*Denotes five-year regressed park factors as calculated by Patriot here

Turner Field plays as mostly a neutral park and has been considered as such for much of its history. The Park is also quite a beauty from the outside looking in, and though it is of the retro style that has been much maligned for the last 15 years, it is still pretty impressive. I plan on attending a game between the Braves and Marlins at some point while I am here in Atlanta.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Braves	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.515	3.83	4.16	2.81	Buehrle	Minor	6.59	4.40	4.24	.468

Mark Buehrle is, yet again, being his old Mark Buehrle self. In his previous outing, he managed a typical outing that included two runs allowed on eight hits, with three strikeouts, two walks, and a home run. That's a mediocre or below average Buehrle start, and he can certainly pull better outings out of his bag of tricks, but that particular one illustrates just how little he variates even between games, despite the fact that he is pretty dependent on balls in play for his success.

Mike Minor offers the opposite in terms of left-handed pitching. Minor throws in the low 90's and induces a good number of whiffs (9.1 percent swinging strike rate career), leading to a career 22.2 percent career strikeout rate. He does not walk too many guys either, so Minor's career looks like it is on the up-and-up, except that despite a career 3.74 FIP, he has posted a 5.22 ERA overall and that number has been even worse this season. Minor is bound to regress, as most pitchers with his kind of peripherals do. Let's just hope it's not against us.

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1	Jose Reyes	.350
2	Omar Infante	.331
3	Hanley Ramirez	.369
4	Austin Kearns	.304
5	Giancarlo Stanton	.394
6	Gaby Sanchez	.358
7	Emilio Bonifacio	.305
8	John Buck	.320

Austin Kearns makes yet another start in favor of Logan Morrison against the lefty Minor, and one has to wonder whether Ozzie Guillen's consistent resting of Morrison is being done in order to hide him during recovery of some injury such as the one he suffered in Spring Training. No other player on the team has gotten the resting profile like Morrison outside of the catcher John Buck, and for most other position players, this would be a completely odd usage pattern for a starting left fielder, let alone your team's cleanup hitter. Is Morrison injured? That is a good question.

Notes

- SCrebel10 of Talking Chop has the Marlins / Braves series preview on their end of the spectrum.

- Ben Duronio of Capitol Avenue Club says that Braves rookie starter Randall Delgado has played exactly as expected.

- Make sure you check out the Pick 6 leaderboard and make your Ichthyomancy picks below!

Bold Prediction: Braves def. Marlins 4-3

Fish Stripes Pick 6 Leaderboard and Discussion Thread, 05/16/12

2012-05-16T19:49:22Z

Sorry for not checking in yesterday, gang, but we were flooded with good stuff to talk about yesterday. Today, let's recap what happened on the latest edition of SB Nation's Pick 6 game on Fish Stripes!

Rank	Player	Points
1	mice day	61.7
2	Kevin Nogle	44.6
3	SuperRadz	41.5
4	d.o.g.o.b.g.y.n.	39.5
5	FishNFinz	36.1
6	EricW	35.4
7	Brian Mati	34.2
8	mblally	28.8
9	JLR04	26.7
10	bronzeagle	23.9

Use mice day gets back into the swing of things with the leading day yesterday, while clubhouse leader Kevin Nogle and others followed with strong performances. I was nowhere to be found because I was so darn busy, as mentioned. At this pace, I'll never get back into this game!

Here's the top five of the full leaderboard.

Rank	Player	Points
1	Kevin Nogle	473.8
2	mice day	449.6
3	mblally	436.8
4	bronzeagle	429.5
5	Miami Marlins 2012	427.3

Our leaderbaord looks pretty similar to the usual, with a number of players who have been there for much of the season. My question is whether we are ever going to hear from mice day; I don't think I've seen you on the game threads or playing Ichthyomancy, what gives? Get involved with your favorite Marlins blog other than beating me up in this game!

Go ahead and leave your picks for today's games and discuss the game here! We're getting a solid 15 players every game, but we can definitely do better. Bring it guys!

Do Not Worry About Marlins With RISP

2012-05-16T18:00:39Z

Joe Frisaro and Tom Green over at MLB.com pointed out that the Miami Marlins were dead last in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position this season following Monday's 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, a good deal of that may have rectified after the team's strong performance in a 6-2 win last night, but nevertheless, as of that loss, the Fish were batting .207/.309/.319 with runners in scoring position. For his part, Ozzie Guillen does not seem concerned with the team's effort at least.

"They're just not getting it done," Guillen said. "They're not selfish. Everybody is pulling the same rope together. They're pulling for each other in the dugout. When I see a player not doing what they're supposed to do, I'm not hiding it from anybody.

"If you know my style, this is my job. I will let you guys know if I see any bats or I see somebody do what they're not supposed to do. If I see somebody not playing the game right, I will get on his butt."

It must be frustrating not to drive in those runs with your teammates so close to home plate. But as Guillen is seemingly saying, there is no reason yet to change anyone's approach at the plate because of this problem, and that is a key point to make sure fans understand early in 2012.

Hitting Bad In General

Part of the reason why the Marlins are struggling with runners in scoring position is because they are struggling in general. The Fish are batting just .239/.308/.393 (.307 wOBA) as a team, so it is no surprise to see them struggling in all aspects, including with runners on base. Once the Marlins start heating up (and they have already begun in May, as they have hit .254/.333/.403 with a .328 wOBA this month), they will pull up with their rising tide the ship of performance with runners in scoring position.

Usually, performances like these do not vary much from a team's overall line, so there is good news in that respect for the Marlins. This season, the league as a whole is hitting .250/.318/.397 in general, while the league is hitting .250/.338/.391 with runners in scoring position. Those numbers are highly similar, and this is not just a one-season event.

Season	Slash Line, Overall	Slash Line, RISP
2011	.255/.321/.399	.254/.339/.393
2010	.257/.325/.403	.259/.347/.403
2009	.262/.333/.418	.263/.351/.411
2008	.264/.333/.416	.266/.355/.414

The entire difference in the lines lies in OBP, and that difference is accounted for entirely by intentional walks, as almost 100 percent of intentional walks occur with a runner in scoring position. The batting averages and slugging percentages are indicative that teams, as a whole, hit about the same with runners in scoring position as they do overall.

The numbers are not drastically different when you look at the "best" and "worst" teams in baseball either. For example, take a look at the last three seasons worth of World Series winners and worst-record teams.

Team (Season)	Slash Line, Overall	Slash Line, RISP
St. Louis Cardinals (2011)	.273/.341/.425	.290/.378/.454
Houston Astros (2011)	.258/.311/.374	.258/.326/.366
San Francisco Giants (2010)	.257/.321/.408	.248/.338/.377
Pittsburgh Pirates (2010)	.242/.304/.373	.250/.332/.385
New York Yankees (2009)	.283/.362/.478	.272/.370/.433
Washington Nationals (2009)	.258/.337/.406	.255/.350/.404

Based on these six examples, there does not seem to be a great relationship between doing well and hitting better than normal with runners in scoring position. One might posture that the teams at the top are likely to be hitting a bit better with runners in scoring position while the team's at the bottom are doing a little worse, but those changes are likely minute enough that they are indistinguishable from luck.

Don't Change The Approach

The important part for the Marlins, since they know they have not done well lately with runners in scoring position, is to not change their approach significantly in those situations. With so many Fish hitters struggling early in the season, there needs to be a systematic approach involving careful video watching and scouting data if the team is going to tinker with a player's swing. Simply suggesting the cliche advice of "going the other way" with a runner on second may force the hitter to continually think that way and give up hits and bases that he otherwise would have gotten in his normal approach.

The Marlins just cannot panic with their performance at the plate, regardless of the state of the runners on base. The problem right now, as has been evidenced by the regression in the month of May, is a simple case of bad luck, and that extends to the runners in scoring position situation. If the team starts tinkering with, say, Hanley Ramirez (.214/.283/.407 with RISP), Omar Infante (.259/.276/.296) or Logan Morrison (.167/.333/.167), then those players may lose more in trying to adjust in a particular fashion in that situation than they would have gained by simply waiting out their slumps and continuing the way they were going.

Fish Bites: Wednesday

2012-05-16T16:00:20Z

The Miami Marlins keep plugging along. The team is playing well. And now they get the luxury of playing at home for a few games. And while the Fish are barely above .500, I think its safe to say they are past their early season woes. As a team anyway. Immediate holes to fix still include Gaby Sanchez and his poor start at the plate, Heath Bell obviously, and John Johnson and how long until he notches his first victory of the season (he actually beat the Pirates Tuesday night).

Regardless, its great to see the Fish are coming around. And like I have said for a few weeks now, as long as the pitching stays this good, once the hitting comes around, the ball club will be a candidate to go on another long winning streak. The Fish have power, speed, and clutch hitting to be able to do this. They have shown these qualities even thought they are not hitting much.

- The NL East is tough. Want to know how tough it is? Four of the five teams in the divison are above .500. The only team that is under .500 has been the best team in the division the last few years (Philadelphia). Whoever comes out of this division will be battered. The competition will make sure of that.

- The Miami Marlins are still number 10 in the latest CBS New York baseball power rankings. The article says the Fish have been the comeback kids recently. Just ask the Mets.

- Rare pitching line for Ryan Webb Monday night. He recorded an out in one-third of an inning, without facing a batter. He came on to pitch with a man on first and two outs. John Buck then threw out the base stealer trying to steal second. So there you go.

- The New Orleans Zephyrs beat the Las Vegas 51s Tuesday afternoon, 5-2. Scott Cousins provided all of the offensive lift needed as he drove in three runs. Read more here.

- The Marlins are leading the league in team stolen bases. Obviously we knew this would be a huge part of their season going into 2012. When you have Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes at the top of your line up, you have to run. This will come in handy later on when the hitting catches up to the pitching.

- Marlins Daily writes on a guy that went under the radar before the season, but now is one of baseball's best at his position. None other than Omar Infante. He is leading the Marlins in a ton of offensive categories. And his defense has always been good. Let's see if he can keep this up.

Around The League

- Matt Kemp heads to the 15-Day DL with a hamstring issue. That stops a streak of consecutive games played. Oh well. Read more here.

- Justin Morneau will be activated from the disabled list on Wednesday. What happened to this guy? Used to be one of the premiere hitters in the game. Read more here.

- Coming to a minor league stadium near you, Manny Ramirez! Are you excited? He starts this Saturday in Albuquerque. Read more here.

At Fish Stripes

- Read Emilio Bonifacio, version 3.0 from Mr. Jong. Including some baseball heat maps if you are interested in that. It is a very well written piece on a player that has gotten better all the time.

- Please vote for your favorite Miami Marlins handshake below. Hanley Ramirez has to be hitgh on the list. I feel like every time I look up he is hand shaking some one.

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