Fish Stripes

Ozzie Guillen, MGL, and the Marlins' Traditional Ways

2012-02-10T19:01:18Z

Have any of you watched MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential? If there is a baseball show on that network to watch, it is that one. It is an analytics based show using advanced stats to tell stories and analyze the game, just the sort of thing we here at Fish Stripes really enjoy. Furthermore, it is hosted by former ESPN broadcaster Brian Kenny, who is well known for being saber-friendly and more than interested in the numbers. They could not have picked a better host and a better topic for today's baseball world. Sabermetrics is more important than ever in the evaluation of players at the front office level, and it is really coming to the forefront.

One place sabermetrics has not necessarily penetrated is the managerial world. We have all screamed at our team's managers in past for making dumbfounding moves, and it is not surprising. So many managers are stuck in the old school ways of managing that it seems they are not open to new ideas that the data has shown to be significant. It was evident in the World Series when Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington intentionally walked like a million guys, and it again was evident a few nights ago with the Miami Marlins' own Ozzie Guillen.

A few nights ago, Clubhouse Confidential brought in Mitchell Lichtman, a.k.a the (in)famous MGL, to the broadcast. He was there to discuss some of the findings that were highlighted in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, one of the best baseball books one can find. These findings include the absence of a "clutch hitting" skills, the most optimal batting order synthesis, and the way that National League teams can avoid giving away runs.

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Overall, it was an excellent segment from both MGL and Kenny, as they both played their roles well. Because of the environment and the nature of the questions, it seemed MGL was more calm than he usually would be if he were dealing with a typical baseball blowhard on television or radio. This is totally worth a watch.

Of course, what interested me a little more is the response that Ozzie Guillen gave on Twitter.

@OzzieGuillen
Ozzie Guillen all gm in baseball please give mitchel litchman a job or bench coach he is good hahaha wow
Feb 08 via web Favorite Retweet Reply

@OzzieGuillen
Ozzie Guillen all these guys on mlb network right now just writing books wow genius haha
Feb 08 via web Favorite Retweet Reply

Now, I don't know about you, but does that not come off as sarcastic more than anything else? Guillen seems to merely dismiss the work of Tom Tango, MGL, and Andy Dolphin (the authors of The Book) with a laugh. The comment on "writing books" sounds an awful lot like the "get your head out of a spreadsheet and watch the game" mentality we often hear from folks who dismiss sabermetrics.

If this is the case (and there is always the chance that Guillen is being sincere, though in this case it is highly doubtful), it does not surprise me at all to see Guillen dismiss these ideas. SB Nation's Beyond the Box Score recorded a Traditional Manager Index for both the AL and NL; this was a measure of intentional walks issued by pitchers and sacrifice bunts laid down by position players, pro-rated to 162 games. Guillen lead all AL managers in 2011, showing once again that he has an extremely high propensity for old-school strategies. He is also well known for being a fan of stealing bags at all times, and on more than one occasion he has had a pitcher bean an opposing hitter as retaliation (and in one instance, he demoted a guy for failing to hit someone).

So Guillen probably does not see the appeal of advanced analysis in baseball. He is probably more than stuck in his old ways, as managers such as Jack McKeon, Edwin Rodriguez, and Fredi Gonzalez were before him (these three managers were among the top four in Traditional Manager Index in 2011). The Marlins went from really old-school to slightly less old-school, but in terms of managers, they remain as backwards as ever. It does not help that we are not fully aware of just how much the Marlins front office is aware of sabermetrics either. We truly do not know if sabermetrics and advanced analysis has any place in the Marlins' organization, and that cannot be a good thing. In this day and age, with more and more teams picking up intelligent, analytic minds to go along with scouting cores. These teams are evolving enough that having this may not even become an edge any longer. But you can bet that not having it will be a detriment.

Right now, the Marlins are getting away with a strong backbone of scouting headed by Larry Beinfest. However, the failure of the team's drafts in recent years along with the fact that now the club can spend money a bit more freely leads to some trepidation about the direction of the future of this club. We've already seen them make some terrible moves even this offseason, and when you consider that the culture of the organization seems stuck in the 1980's and 1990's in terms of managing and front office work, a slightly larger payroll can easily turn a cost-conscious and efficient mediocre team to a wasteful mediocre club in no time flat.

Playing Pick'em With Cespedes

2012-02-10T14:00:39Z

A couple of weeks ago, Yoennis Cespedes officially became a free agent able to negotiate a contract with major league teams. Last week, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus held the most interesting of articles regarding the Cuban free agent and current heated interest of the Miami Marlins. The question was simple: who would you rather?

I polled big-league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn’t expressly ask about tools or projection; I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five 20-something, ultra-toolsy outfielders who have yet to fully break through. I offered a simple proposal: You can either have Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career for free—so cost should not enter into the decision.

It's a pick'em game for the rest of the players' respective careers. Who you got between Cespedes and these five outfielders? I figured I'd play as well and post my thoughts as well.

Colby Rasmus

Scouting Report: Rasmus was once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball. He seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things were no better north of the border; Rasmus limped to a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.

Once upon a time, in 2010, Rasmus was an All-Star and had a bright future ahead of him. Yet somehow, he ended up on the bench more often than not, and in 2011 he had a horrific third season. When looking at Rasmus, you are fairly certain you will get power (career .181 ISO), but not certain about his strikeout problems (career 22.7 percent rate). He has a lot of tools, but there are definite concerns about whether he can handle center field long-term.

In fact, a lot of that sounds a lot like Cespedes himself! Like Rasmus, Cespedes appears to have undeniable power, but may lack the plate discipline to succeed long-term. He also has some questions about his defense in center field. The two players are very similar, but the nod should go to a player who has physical potential much greater than the other. I'd give a slight not to Cespedes here.

Pick: Cespedes

Drew Stubbs

Scouting Report: Stubbs is one of the best athletes in the game. He combines elite-level defense with power and speed, but severe contact issues led to 205 strikeouts in 2011 and a more than 100-point decline in OPS; his overall line was .243/.321/.364.

Stubbs is an elite defender in center field, which is something Cespedes will likely never develop. But in watching Stubbs and looking at his numbers, it seems as though you cannot suspect much better than what he has already done. A .155 ISO seems like an appropriate guess at his power, and his strikeout issues are also going to be evident. Cespedes is likely at worst a more powerful version of Stubbs at the plate, and so I think there is a chance that Cespedes's average upside can get him to overcome their gap in defensive prowess.

Pick: Cespedes

B.J. Upton

Scouting Report: Many once saw Upton as the top prospect in the game, but his big-league career has been marred by inconsistency and questions about his effort. However, he had 23 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 2011 as part of a .243/.331/.429 season.

Upton has always tantalized with his tools, much like Cespedes has wowed us so far. But at this point, we know who Upton is: a good defender in center field and a slightly above average bat. He has the same problems as the previous two players, though his walk rate is higher. With Cespedes, I believe there is still enough upside to overcome the very known quantity that B.J. Upton has shown himself to be, but it is a tough choice. The two players have similar problems, and it will be Cespedes's power versus Upton's defense. For now, I have Upton's defense by a hair.

Pick: Upton

Chris Young

Scouting Report: While he's averaged 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his five full seasons as Arizona's center fielder, he's also yet to have the breakthrough year many have projected for him.

Young is an underrated player, especially when compared to some of the names listed here. He has established himself at around the talent level he set up in 2011, so his performances should not surprise anyone. Of the five players listed here, he has the best plate approach, having drawn walks in 10 percent of his career PA and struck out only in 22.8 percent of those appearances. His strikeouts have improved enough to make him a good known commodity, and a better one than Cespedes as of right now.

Pick: Young

Adam Jones

Scouting Report: Jones’ overaggressive approach is still a turnoff, but he might finally be harnessing what are unquestionable tools. He set career highs in 2011 with 25 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage.

There are a lot of question marks about Adam Jones. He did hit 25 homers last season, but his offensive campaign was only 10 percent better than the league average according to wRC+. He is supposed to be a tremendous defender, but for some reason the numbers and the eyes don't bear that out. Again, we are left with the uncertainty of two five-tool athletes with very similar skillsets, as both Jones and Cespedes are supposed to have decent contact and terrible plate patience. In a situation where both players are even in terms of tools, upside, and production (theoretically), I think taking the one that has proven himself is a better call. It's another close selection, but I have Jones by a hair.

Pick: Jones

So in this case, Cespedes looks like he is an easy pick over Stubbs, a nod over Rasmus, a nod below Jones and Upton, and decently behind Young. In another words, as of right now, we suspect he is somewhere in between the five of these players.

What do you guys think? Would you take Cespedes over these major leaguers? Which ones and why?

Fish Stripes All-Time Florida Marlins Team: Corner Outfield Run-off

2012-02-09T18:03:25Z

It's been a week since we last visited the Fish Stripes All-Time Florida Marlins Team. Last week, we discussed the issue of corner outfielders, and what an issue it was. There was a logjam of four very legitimate contenders for the crown, but only two can make the starting lineup. Part of the voting will involve the Fish Stripes readership, and this week their voices have been heard. Their first vote for top Florida Marlins outfielder has been cast.

It seems the first choice for top outfielder by the fans is Gary Sheffield! Sheffield was one of the four names, and his top-notch 1996 season and contributions to the 1997 championship team were enough to put him over in the fan's eyes. Sheffield has accumulated more PA with the Marlins than any other team, and if he ever gets a shot at entering the Hall of Fame, you have to suspect that he will at least consider putting on the Marlins hat and becoming the team's first representative.

But now the question becomes: who else will join the readers ballot?

Two Great Candidates Remain

The Marlins have had the pleasure of hosting two more great candidates for the second position. Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Conine both received a significant number of votes, with Cabrera edging Conine in this ballot. For that reason, we are running a run-off vote. Here are their profiles one more time:

Miguel Cabrera

Player PA AVG OBP SLG fWAR rWAR

Cabrera 3072 .313 .388 .542 22.1 18.7

Like Jeff Conine before him, Miguel Cabrera is another player that qualifies for two different positions on the Marlins. Unlike Conine, there is a major difference in the two player's playing skills. Until 2009, Cabrera held the exalted position of "Best Marlin Ever" by having the most Wins Above Replacement of any player on the team. His accomplishments as a Marlin are undeniable. His career .313/.388/.542 line puts him second only to Gary Sheffield among Marlins with at least 1000 PA in OPS+. His five-year stay with the Fish was the most prolific offensive stretch in the team's history, as he brought in around 170 runs above average during his time as a Marlin. He owns 138 home runs as a Marlin, which stands as third all-time on the team behind only Dan Uggla and Mike Lowell.

The only thing that stood in Cabrera's way for most of his career was defense. He was a very bad defender in the outfield, and he clearly got worse and worse at third base. It is not surprising that the Detroit Tigers moved him from third base to his more rightful position of first base after only 14 games. The Marlins never had a chance to do this even though the team only once had a legitimate, good first baseman during that time period. Cabrera cost 29 to 42 runs on defense during that time period compared to the average player at his position.

Of course, that only takes away some luster from the otherwise excellent Marlins career Cabrera put together. Topping off the statistical accomplishments are Cabrera's accomplishments during the 2003 playoffs. He got a chance to bat cleanup for the Marlins during the National League Championship and World Series run, went toe to toe with Roger Clemens and other top New York Yankees starters, and succeeded more than anyone could have imagined.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	fWAR	rWAR
Cabrera	3072	.313	.388	.542	22.1	18.7

Jeff Conine

Player PA AVG OBP SLG fWAR rWAR

Conine 3914 .290 .358 .455 18.0 14.9

They do not call Conine "Mr. Marlin" for nothing. The man most likely to receive the first jersey retiring in the future (and I have no idea whether or not anyone has used #18 or #19 since Conine, but it would not surprise me if there have not been any) has the biggest edge in terms of longevity with the Marlins. In two stints with the Fish, Niner did nothing but impress, batting a solid .290/.358/.455 (.354 wOBA) for his Marlins career. When he first came up with the Fish after a few cups of coffee with the Kansas City Royals, he was among the team's best players and a regular fixture in left field from the beginning of 1993 until the World Series season of 1997. When the Marlins were again making the run for the playoffs in 2003, the Fish acquired Conine late in the season and his play, while merely solid, solidified an empty spot in the lineup and again became the stuff of Marlins legends.

Conine only spent a third of his career playing first base for the Marlins, but because of the relative inconsistency of Marlins first basemen, he actually made the second most starts at first base in Marlins history. His "Mr. Marlin" reputation and longevity with the Fish make him something of a big figure among fans, and certainly the two rings from different championship teams don't hurt. However, it is easy to think Niner was overrated by a small franchise and its limite history, but he was a legitimately good player in his time. His first run with the Fish was among the best performances from outfielders or first basemen in Marlins history.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	fWAR	rWAR
Conine	3914	.290	.358	.455	18.0	14.9

The decision is going to be a difficult one. Both players are quite deserving in their own ways. Jeff Conine contributed to two World Series victories, while Cabrera only took part in one. However, Cabrera's role in that World Series was an amazing performance, especially given his age. Conine has longevity on his side, but Cabrera had a peak offensive career with the Fish. You Fish Stripers will have to decide.

The Others

The other three candidates will also be present in the run-off, but it seems as if no one is interested in them. Cliff Floyd is the player I find particularly puzzling, because Floyd's accomplishments with the Fish were also very significant in terms of performance. Like Sheffield, he too spent seasons when he was hurt and unable to provide maximum production. Also like Sheffield, he had one season that was among the best in Marlins history. Unfortunately, the knock on him was timing, as he was a bench warmer for the 1997 team and was traded a season before the magical 2003 year.

Mike Stanton will be in the run-off, but it seems like readers are more interested in him as a future Miami Marlin rather than a true Florida Marlin. Nevertheless, he too will be present along with old-timer Kevin Millar in the run-off vote.

So cast your vote now! Who do you guys believe should be the second corner outfielder for the Fish Stripes All-Time Florida Marlins team?

Poll

Who is the second-best corner outfielder in Florida Marlins history?

Fish Bites: Bonifacio Wins

2012-02-09T17:00:40Z

The Miami Marlins are back in the news. If its not Jose Reyes and his locks, Cespedes and his decision, or the homerun celebration thing out beyond centerfield, the team is making noise. Earlier today the biggest news was Emilio Bonifacio. He beat the team he plays for in arbitration. And while I will leave the specific details to the beat writers who follow the team on a daily basis (he'll make $2.2 million next season instead of the $1.95 million salary targeted by the team), I'm glad for the guy because he stood out last year as team's best player.

- Bonifacio does so many things well for the Fish. He hits, he steals, he defends many positions, he brings excitement, and it is common to see him out there smiling and having a great time. The guy is a utility player. But at any moment can become an everyday player because he is so talented. I remember when the ballclub counted on Alfredo Amezaga in the same way. Rarely do fans ever complain about what these guys give. Its a luxury to have Bonifacio, and again, I'm glad he is going to get paid a little more not only for what he did last year, but for what he will do for the team going forward.

- The unique sculpture that fans will enjoy when a Marlins player hits a home run will be great. I love it when people are quick to judge and bash something without even giving it a chance. At first I had my reservations when I saw the images on-line. But now I am behind the project and the idea of it fully. I can't wait until Sportscenter shows it during their nightly recap of Marlin home games. Plus, did you know the event lasts about 27 seconds after a home run is hit? Roughly the amount of time it takes Mike Stanton to round the bases after hitting a big blast. Read more details about this project here.

- Could Steve Cishek be the best reliever in the Marlins bullpen? Sounds a bit crazy since we only have one season of stats to go on. Jonathan Mitchell however did an excellent job breaking down what Cishek did last year. And the numbers don't lie. Cishek should not just be used nightly. The Marlins might also want to use him in huge spots. He could be that good.

- Fangraphs says two of the worst transactions of the winter belong to the Marlins. Specifically the acquisitions of Buehrle and Bell. Look, I understand a lot of what the Marlins do will be scrutinized because so much of it is new. But I still view this in a very simple way. On paper, the Marlins are a much better team today than they were last season. So before I think a few years down the road about whether or not these were good free agent deals, I am going to enjoy the 'now' because its cool.

- Its a huge risk to trade away young pitchers. For starters, you can never have enough starting pitching. And young pitchers are relatively inexpensive. Nevertheless, an evaluator says in this article that Chris Volstad will probably never come back to haunt the Marlins. So good trade Fish. Just too bad it did not work out.

- Check out the situation Ozzie Guillen is walking into now with the Miami Marlins. Then compare it to the situation he was inheriting when he took his first managerial job with the Chicago White Sox. Ozzie will say the current situation is much better. And I agree. For the Marlins he is not only the manager. He is an ambassador as well. He is leading the team through its biggest moment in years.

Around the League

- Russell Branyan signs with the New York Yankees.

- Billy Beane got a contract extension from the Oakland Athletics (even though the team has not won many postseason games in the last 15 years).

- Check out this creepy coincidence between the Miami Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays. I guess the Marlins truly don't have many supporters outside of Miami. That includes in the arbitration community.

At Fish Stripes

- Sign up for Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball now. And read the following as to all the advantages this league offers compared to other fantasy baseball sites.

Poll

Mike Stanton future MVP?

Fish Bites: Wooing Cespedes and Stadium Woes

2012-02-08T19:37:07Z

The Miami Marlins have been quiet for the time being as we slowly but surely approach pitchers and catchers reporting. Of course, there is at least one thing in which the Marlins are very involved.

- Of course, we are talking about the Yoennis Cespedes sweepstakes. All signs point to the two sides being favorable to a deal; Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald says that Cespedes likes Miami, and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel reports that one source thinks the Fish are the favorite. Yesterday evening, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported via Twitter that David Samson told him that the Fish may have an offer ready by the lunch and ballpark tour today. As a blogger for the Marlins, I am more than interested in a potential Cespedes signing, especially since the Marlins were the first team to visit with him and could end up being the last.

- But those are potential future happenings with regards to the Marlins' payroll and talent, but two moves recently occurred regarding the team's current talent. Both Anibal Sanchez and Emilio Bonifacio won their respective arbitration cases. This does not represent a significant blow to the Fish, as the team probably lost out on $1.3 million in these cases. This should not affect any of the Marlins' potential future moves.

- By the way, here is Call to the Pen's Christopher Carelli on the cases of Anibal Sanchez and John Lannan and their distinct differences.

- Does Sanchez deserve a multi-year deal? Will Stanifer of Marlin Maniac says yes. Here at Fish Stripes, we agree.

- Want to get a gander at the Marlins' new stadium? MLB '12 has a video game preview available. The stadium looks so pretty in digital form!

- No matter how nice the stadium looks though, the parking woes may make transportation to a game a nightmare. As someone who will not be getting season tickets, I am definitely concerned about this.

- You want a piece of 2012 Marlins history? Go buy Jose Reyes's hair!

Around the League

- Elvis Andrus signed a three-year extension with the Texas Rangers. He is among the better shortstops in baseball, thanks in part to his stellar defense. There's a reason why Michael Young had to move off the position.

- So apparently I have never heard of this "Baseball Boyfriend" thing (check out an explanation of the so-called problem here). Matthew Callan of Amazin' Avenue also takes some offense.

- Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball wonders in Michael Morse can repeat his performance from last year. My money is on him regressing pretty heavily, but there is a chance he is at least 80 percent as good as he was last year.

- Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley reviews the Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee trades.

At Fish Stripes

- Did you check out our weekend pieces? Go vote for our latest Wild Pitch and vote in our latest poll: who should be the Marlins' leadoff man?

- On Monday, we find out that Anibal Sanchez won his case, but how much will he be worth next season and beyond?

- Yesterday, we continued discussing Ricky Nolasco's problems with runners on, this time with batted ball data.

Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball Starting Up Soon, Sign Up Now!

2012-02-07T22:45:43Z

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Ricky Nolasco and the Problem with Runners On: Batted Ball Data

2012-02-07T20:18:07Z

This is an ongoing series regarding Ricky Nolasco and his consistent problems with runners on. See the first two parts here and here.

Last week, we went a little more in-depth into the problems Ricky Nolasco has had in the stretch. This week, we are going to explore another area of Nolasco's game, that being the balls in play that he allowed.

First, let us review the observations we made based on last week's data.

Without examining much further for now, we see two interesting points from this data:

1) Nolasco is not hitting the strike zone as often with runners on

2) Nolasco is using less of his effective curveball and more of his less effective fastball and slider with runners on

We suspect that Nolacso is not hitting the strike zone often enough. Perhaps he is being too careful in order to allow juicy pitches to come through the zone with runners on, with the possibility that they might be crushed. But has avoiding the strike zone assisted Nolasco in getting hit less hard? Let us take a look at the data to find out.

Methodology

For measuring the quality of balls in play, I am going to use three different statistics.

GB%: Self explanatory, this is the ground ball rate. The more ground balls, the fewer balls go out of the yard.

SLGCON: Slugging percentage on contacted balls. This measures slugging percentage on balls that go in play, including home runs. Some pitches naturally lend to higher values on slugging percentage (fastballs, for example) while others lend themselves to lower values (breaking balls)

LWTS: This is an approximate measure of runs allowed per ball in play in this case. This is a more accurate account of value for the balls in play allowed than SLGCON. Keep in mind that I am using average linear weights that do not account for base state; it is very clear that hits with runners on are owrth mo than with the bases empty

Data

How does the data look? Let us start with how each of Nolasco's pitches fared with the bases empty.

Pitch	BIP	GB%	SLGCON	LWTS
FF	388	28.4	.631	0.09
SL	166	44.0	.428	0.01
CU	116	44.8	.440	0.01
FC	48	52.1	.646	0.14
CH	13	7.7	.308	-0.07
Total	731	35.7	.550	0.06

These numbers are not all that surprising. Nolasco's fastball appears to be his worst pitch on balls in play, and this does not surprise anyone, as we have already suspected that this is his worst pitch overall and fastballs in general do not do well on contact. The curveball and slider was about equally effective when put in play, getting very similar ground ball rates, SLGCON, and run averages.

Now how do these numbers compare to when Nolasco has runners on?

Pitch	BIP	GB%	SLGCON	LWTS
FF	148	32.4	.696	0.13
SL	131	44.3	.405	0.03
FC	53	67.9	.453	0.03
CU	37	48.6	.676	0.08
CH	10	40.0	.700	0.11
Total	379	43.3	.559	0.08

Now, drawing too many conclusions from these numbers clearly should not be done, as we have a very small sample of balls in play. Still, there are some observations to be made here, the most glaring of which is that Nolasco did worse on balls in play with runners on both in SLGCON and linear weights runs. Despite the fact that he dodged more of the strike zone in these situations, he still managed to get hit harder on balls in play. If the strategy was to avoid getting beat by hittable pitches with runners on, then the theory did not work out. He did induce more ground balls, but that may have been a factor based on his increased cutter usage, as the cutter is a high ground ball pitch. Nevertheless, the overall package was less effective with runners on.

One other aspect I found interesting is that Nolasco's slider has remained extremely consistent both in zone data and on balls in play. Essentially, it remains unchanged despite a ten percent uptick in usage with runners on. It turns out that Nolasco has not changed the ratio of fastball-type pitches (fastball and cutter) versus breaking ball pitches (slider and curveball) when going from bases empty to runners on. He has been forced to use less of his curveball, but it turns out his curveball may be inconsistently useful on balls in play. His slider has increased, but it happens to be his better pitch on balls in play. A drop in effectiveness in his curveball and fastball seemed to explain the difference in balls in play effectiveness.

Still, that difference is fairly small; over a sample of 730 balls in play, it would average out to 15 runs. Of course, given that hits are worth more with runners on, it certainly has contributed to his problems. But I suspect that the problem with Nolasco remains in his placement. Next week, we'll take a look at how he is placing and selecting his pitches based on count.

Anibal Sanchez Wins Largest Pitcher Arbitration Decision

2012-02-06T20:46:28Z

The Miami Marlins and starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez went to arbitration this weekend to decide between a salary of $6.9 million (Marlins) and $8 million (Sanchez), and in this case, Sanchez won his offer (H/T MLB Daily Dish). It turns out that this deal is actually the largest that a pitcher has ever received when going to arbitration, though obviously pitchers have earned much more during their arbitration years due to extensions and such.

Sanchez will earn about $2 million more than was expected of him by MLB Trade Rumors' projected arbitration salaries, but the Marlins anticipated this and actually offered around $7 million for the righty starter. Either way, this ensures that Sanchez will be a Marlin through 2012 and that he will also test the free agent waters following this year. If you will recall, I have previously advocated signing Sanchez to an extension to ensure that he is on the team for the next four seasons after 2012. With the Marlins unlikely to get a deal done with free agency imminent, it is very likely the team will let him sign on with a bigger fish.

This is not surprising and perfectly normal of the old Marlins style. In the past, the Marlins have twice allowed good pitchers (mind you, not great pitchers) walk away in free agency after their final arbitration season. In consecutive seasons, the Marlins allowed Carl Pavano and A.J. Burnett to enter free agency and make big-money deals elsewhere. Those two cases are also fairly similar to Sanchez's in that both player were also of similar age; like Sanchez in 2012, both Burnett and Pavano were 28 years old in their final arbitration season.

Here are the stats for the three pitchers in their final three arbitration seasons. Note that I'm only including the 2010 and 2011 seasons for Sanchez.

Player	IP	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	Avg WAR
Pavano	559 1/3	15.3	6.0	3.99	3.89	7.7
Burnett	352	22.8	9.2	3.61	3.26	6.2
Sanchez	391 1/3	21.5	8.0	3.61	3.34	6.9

Sanchez lies somewhere in between the consistent but underwhelming Pavano and the more electric but oft-injured Burnett. In two seasons, he already surpassed Burnett in innings and, if he remains off the disabled list, should surpass Pavano's innings totals as well. If he can continue the pace he has kept up in the last two seasons, Sanchez should be in line to outperform both those pitchers.

Pavano earned a deal worth almost $10 million a season in a time when one Win Above Replacement (WAR) was worth $3.5 million to start. Burnett earned a five-year deal worth $11 million a season at a time when wins were worth about $3.7 million to start. Assuming teams expected the sort of boom in the baseball free agent market (prices for WAR went up 10 percent per season until 2009 according to FanGraphs' estimations), teams were expecting about 2.5 WAR per season for both of these guys over the course of their contracts. This puts their starting WAR at about 3.5 or so with a half-win decline per season.

Does this sound reasonable for Sanchez? Considering his last two seasons have included an average of 3.5 wins per year, it does sound appropriate. If he ages as those guys did, how much would a free agent contract for Sanchez cost? Presuming similar expectations as those of Pavano and Burnett in terms of performance decline and a projected dollars-per-WAR total as seen in previous articles here, one would expect a five-year deal worth $65 million in the offseason. However, that seems low given the extensions and contracts we have seen this season for starters. In our previous example, we saw that a pitcher of Sanchez's caliber may be worth five years and $78 million based on comparisons to pitchers like C.J. Wilson and John Danks.

Would the Marlins be willing to pay a price between those two figures, especially considering that, in this case, they would be competing with other teams for his services? I am unsure about this. The Marlins do have a looming free agent pitcher decision in Josh Johnson, and allowing Sanchez to walk may give the team the money it need to re-sign Johnson long-term. However, if the team sees a limited future with Johnson, it would not surprise if they turned to Sanchez, even if he is a significantly inferior option in terms of pure skill. Nevertheless, losing either player would be a big blow to a rotation that will not have many players on which to fall back given the team's weak pitching depth. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins manage Sanchez's situation, but for now, he remains a Marlin for another season.