Gaslamp Ball

Baseball Enjoyment Index Revisited

2009-11-24T18:56:07Z

I've been thinking about my Enjoyment Index again. For those who don't know, I want to make a predictive model to try to determine how many people will show up to a Padres game at Petco. The way I figure it, the more people that show up to the games (as a percentage of capacity), the more enjoyment we've received. This is all I want from the Padres. Enjoyment.

The correlation between attendance and enjoyment isn't proven (I'm not in front of any numbers), but seems to me like a pretty good assumption. People vote with their dollars.

I know right away some of you are saying, "You're a retard, Dex. All a team needs to do to make people show up is win games." And that's obviously wrong. Look at teams like the Braves or the Marlins. They've had winning seasons in front of empty stadiums. I mean, when the Braves can't even sell out playoff games, there's something more to it than just wining and losing. Maybe the Braves marketing wasn't good. Maybe people don't like watching dominant pitchers.

Granted, winning percentage is a huge factor, so we won't discount it, but all I'm saying is that you can't only rely on it.

Intrigued!? ME TOO. All kinds of ramblings after the jump.

It would also be helpful to know (if you're in the front office), what factors go into making any particular game well attended. First off, knowing what factors contribute to attendance (and particularly enjoyment) give you a good idea of what to do more of. Also, if we can be predictive, we can have a better understanding of how many resources any particular game might need. Ballparks should never run out of hot dogs. That right there showed everything that was wrong with the Sandy Alderson run years is the fact that Petco Park ran out of hot dogs more than once.

OK. So we're almost, but not quite convinced that we want to try to make this model. What are the factors that would go into the model? I'm writing without access to any stats right now, so I can't confirm the numbers. Better to come up with hypothesis first. First off, let's look at factors that the Padres can't really control. I'll list what comes off the top of my head and roughly in the order of how much I think they'll contribute to the model:

1. Winning Percentage - The closer the team is to 1.000, the more likely people will want to attend games.

2. Day of the Week - My guess in order of best attended games: Saturday, Friday, Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday, Tuesday, Monday.

3. Start time - I'm guessing night games are better attended than day games.

4. Opponent - We get lots of visiting fans in San Diego, but I'm assuming that lots of true Padres fans are kinda like me and not intimidated by the opposing fans. Also, there's no denying that Padres fans get a little more into when they're being riled by out of towners. Off hand I'm thinking the NL fans that contribute most to the visitor numbers: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, Mets. Arizona when they're having good
years.

Those first four are what are probably most obvious to people and also things we would figure are out of the team's control. If this were a SWOT analysis, those would be our opportunities and threats. You can't guarantee more people on a Saturday night game against the Dodgers when the Padres are 25-5, but it's the best opportunity to get lots of people into the seats.

Similarly, a Monday day game against the Royals while the Padres are 6-24 is an opportunity for a nice nap at the ballpark, uninterrupted by noise or passersby.

Some of the things that would be obvious to some, but not others (also in the realm of opportunities and threats):

5. Last 10 results - People are more likely to jump onto a winning streak bandwagon.

6. Milestone games - People are going to show up if there's a chance that something awesome is going to happen.

Incidentally, this number 6 is the strategy that I'm convinced the Padres were going for those years that they knew they weren't going to compete in the early 2000s, during that post WS / pre Petco period. You have Tony Gwynn finishing up a Hall of Fame career. You bring in Rickey Henderson and start touting all of the records he could break at any moment. People show up for that and forget about the results of the games themselves.

7. Previous season winning percentage - The better we did the previous season, the more likely people are to wanting to relive the glory and fun.

8. Place in the standings - I'm pretty well convinced that this only kinda helps. People are more likely to go see a first place team, but they're also more likely to go see a third place team who's only a half game out of first place.

I'm sure I'm missing some data points here and there. What I'd like to look at next are the pieces of the puzzle that the Padres actually can control. We'll put them all together in a big ole regression analysis and then mix in some magic and we'll all be happy with the Padres forevs.

Around the Mission: 11/24 Padres Links

2009-11-24T18:15:26Z

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

6 months ago: San Diego Padres right fielder Brian Giles dives as he tries to make a catch on a single hit by Colorado Rockies' Aaron Cook during the sixth inning of a baseball game on Tuesday, May 5, 2009 in San Diego. Giles made the stop keeping the hit from extra bases. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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PADRES: Giles is eager to prove he still has it
"With my knee feeling the way it is, I'm excited," Giles said by phone late last week. "I think I can offer a lot. I can't change those opinions. Physically, I've been as durable as anybody in the game."
Offseason economics put the Boston Red Sox in a curious position - ESPN Boston
it seems extremely unlikely that the Padres will even discuss Adrian Gonzalez (and the $10 million he makes over two years) unless the Red Sox empty their farm system of Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Stolmy Pimentel and essentially become free-agent market mercenaries every winter after 2011.
insidethepadres: DePo
"He's a resource on both the baseball and the business side,"
Season-ticket holders seize opportunity | padres.com: News
"When they sent the renewal, I took out my Sharpie and wrote 'NO FAITH' in these huge block letters,"
The Sacrifice Bunt: The Sacrifice Cheat Sheet: Centerfield
the correct answer is to go with Tony Gwynn, Jr. for less than half of a million dollars
The Official Blog of Matt Antonelli
Hat tip to Sac Bunt
Anthony Gwynn: A $12M player? :: Friar Forecast
I am not convinced Gwynn is truly such a great fielder.

"We're trying to get Adrian Gonzalez right now, too."

2009-11-23T18:49:10Z

"We're trying to get Adrian Gonzalez right now, too."

Jake Peavy reveals secret White Sox plans

Heath Bell hopes that new GM Hoyer isn't a puppet like Kevin Towers

2009-11-23T18:48:23Z

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Boston Herald

I hope (Hoyer) has got full rein. I hope he does. I know (former GM) Kevin Towers didn’t always have it. He’d want to do something and the CEO wouldn’t always sign off on it.

"I’d like to see the team say, ‘Here’s your allowance, $40 million, $50 million, $80 million, spend it on what you want.’ Kevin Towers, the last couple of years, it didn’t seem like he could always do what he wanted. He was kind of a puppet."

You know what other closer wanted to know the direction of Padres about this time last year? Trevor Hoffman. We all saw what happened to him. Nobody questions the direction of this club and gets away with it.

Heath Bell is always saying exactly what's on his mind. Calling Padres' CEOs puppeteers, admittedly puppeteers that gave him his big break and the closer job.

I remember during lunch in High School I did something similar. This girl was walking by and I said "Hey Muppet!" Dex looks at me all horrified and says "Dude you can't call her Muppet!"

"Why not? That's what everybody calls her."

"They call her that behind her back because they think she looks like a muppet!"

"Huh, now that you mention it, I can see the resemblance."

See it's practically the same thing, me and Heath Bell two peas in a pod.

via randomlittleworld.com

Hoyer Meet Boggs...Boggs Meet Hoyer

2009-11-21T03:41:13Z

Hoyer Meet Boggs...Boggs Meet Hoyer

While agent John Boggs characterized the two-hour lunch meeting with Hoyer as ''cordial,'' he said it was more a get-acquainted session than a formal negotiation.

Padres Add Three To 40-Man Roster

2009-11-21T00:21:32Z

Padres Add Three To 40-Man Roster

The Padres placed on the 40-man roster right-handed pitcher Craig Italiano, outfielder Chad Huffman and left-handed pitcher Steve Garrison.

Ballpark Baggin': PGE Park

2009-11-20T20:46:14Z

Over the summer I went to Portland for work and I managed to catch a Beaver's game. Portland's downtown reminds me a lot of San Diego's downtown in that it's not overly dangerous and terrifying at night like downtown LA and you still feel like you're outside when you're outside, unlike Manhattan.

After my meetings, I cut out of work and took a cab to the ballpark. It was about an hour after first pitch and the ticket windows were all closed. I walked up to the gate and, after a few batted eyelashes, scored a free ticket. I bat my eyelashes like Bud Black bats different lineups - often and with wildly varying effect.

PGE Park is very much an old style looking park. Past the right field wall, the park is built right up against a building, which I was later told by a Portland native is a health club. The whole thing sunk a bit into the street. No outfield seats except for some bleachers at the health club that you can walk out to. I assume that, after workouts, the gym patrons can go out to the bleachers, watch a game, and see what people who are really in shape look like.

The outfield scoreboard is one of them old timey time wooden boards that needs somebody back there to constantly update. Updating the scoreboard is always portrayed as something romantic. Like the 106 year old man who has sat behind the scoreboard at Suchansuch Ballpark since 1908. Really, I imagine the job to be dark and dreary. Something reserved for criminals and interns who don't take to Excel as quickly as you might like.

Here's a real blurry photo of it:

I don't recall much about the game except for what I might have tweeted at the time. I remember we were winning when I left the hotel and we were losing by the time I found a seat.

Above the seats is a wooden overhang that appeared to extend out and cover all of the seats. It rains a lot in Portland so I figure it keeps people in their seats during delays.

The other thing it does is make for amazingly loud echos whenever music is played or the fans get excited and cheer. The sound just reverberates up into the rafters and directly down into your ears.

Not unsurprisingly, the American Tinitis Association had a booth set up out on the concourse area near one of the exits. No lie.

Outside of the park there are huge faces guarding each entrance from Portland spirits. They are terrifying and ghastly.

After the game, I walked back to the hotel. It was a Thursday night and about 11 blocks away. Downtown Portland is nice at night. I don't know what they do with the homeless people. Probably, they remind them that it rains all the time and they should seek more temperate weather, like San Diego or something.

As I understand it, there are plans for a new better ballpark, which makes me kinda sad. The current ballpark is nice and old school and seemed to be well attended. It was college beer night or something, so that may have had something to do with it, but still. Lots of cities build new ballparks to recreate the look that Portland's current ballpark has.

I be glad I bagged it when I could.

"As far as approaching free agency, we're not going to be major players for free agents because of...

2009-11-20T00:25:15Z

"As far as approaching free agency, we're not going to be major players for free agents because of the size of our payroll," new general manager Jed Hoyer said Thursday. "But we're going to go after targets we like ... aggressively. We have money in the budget to spend on free agency."

Padres unlikely to go big in market | padres.com: News

Around the Mission: 11/19 Padres Links

2009-11-19T18:17:38Z

via www.fox5sandiego.com

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Detroit Lions receivers coach turns to baseball Hall of Famer for help with dropped passes | Highlight Reel - MLive.com
To help his guys out, Jefferson is turning to some advice that he got San Diego Padres Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. The lifetime .338 hitter told Jefferson when he got into a slump at the plate, his solution was to get more batting practice: "seeing the bat make contact with the ball -- every time."
Padres in the Hall of Fame? — Votes take place in two weeks
Former Padres Roberto Alomar and Fred McGriff are now eligible for the Hall of Fame -- do they have a chance on the first ballot?
Padres unlikely to go big in market | padres.com: News
Free agency is set to begin at 9:01 p.m. Thursday, though if history is any indication, the Padres will likely be quiet on that front again this offseason.
Perpetual Padres Saga: Dynamic Duo
Everth Cabrera+David Eckstein=all the Padres need at middle infield.
XX Sports Radio: Dick Enberg (MP3)
XTRA Sports: Corey Brock (Quicktime)

"If they're interested, I'm interested," Enberg said yesterday.

2009-11-18T16:49:23Z

"If they're interested, I'm interested," Enberg said yesterday.

Oh, My! Padres and Enberg in courting stage - Columnists - SignOnSanDiego.com

Around the Mission: 11/17 Padres Links

2009-11-18T04:53:49Z

Leading by example with Padres flair

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XX Sports Radio: Tom Garfinkel Interview (MP3)
Garfinkel likes to quote old movies. Jed Hoyer has the final say on any Gonzalez trade. The Padres won't shop Gonzalez but they will listen to offers. Garfinkel dated a girl from Nicaragua at one point. He's become a Chargers fan. "At the end of the day... autonomy... moving forward... etc."
insidethepadres
former Padres national crosschecker Scott Littlefield has joined the Rangers as a special assistant in baseball operations
Inbox: Will Correia return to Padres? | padres.com: News
In the latest Inbox, beat reporter Corey Brock looks at Kevin Correia's status, whether Joe Thatcher should be traded, what the new GM might do at catcher and more.
Multi-team trade for Gonzalez a tough task | padres.com: News
Trying to trade a burgeoning superstar -- like Adrian Gonzalez -- is never an easy proposition for a team, and attempting to do so within the framework of a multi-team deal figures to be an even thornier plan.
Should the Padres trade Kevin Kouzmanoff? " Another Padres Blog
I think the answer is yes, and it is largely due to factors not really about Kouzmanoff.
Who's your Padre?: A Padres primer for arbitration ...
My guess? None of these guys make it to arbitration and deals get done before the start of Spring Training.
Padres general manager Jed Hoyer basks in opportunity in San Diego - ESPN
Recently hired Padres general manager Jed Hoyer is now the leading man in San Diego after spending the last several years in the background in Boston.

Lunch with Padres Media Relations

2009-11-17T22:01:07Z

I forgot to mention it when it happened, but jbox and I recently had lunch with Warren Miller and his media relations team, Brett Picciolo, Josh Ishoo and Shaun O'Neall who runs the Padres Magazine.

It was a pretty informal meet-and-greet. JBox and I didn't really have an agenda other that to keep in contact with Warren who has been very gracious with us and to meet some other dudes who put together what we as fans see and hear about our favorite team. If the Padres organization was a large sea lion, then those in our lunch bunch would be the sea lion's vocal chords, barking incessantly and occasionally mooing. Letting you know that you should throw some raw fish its way so as to satisfy the needs of its gray, blubbery body.

Shaun O'Neall looks the part of a grizzled beat reporter, now spending his days shilling the five dollar magazine. Brett's a younger guy. Probably a little younger than me or jbox. Chiseled features. The cool and calculating type. Josh looked like the youngest guy at the table, but he could've easily just been baby faced. Josh wasn't wearing Padres colors. Bastard.

Lemme just say right off that everybody was real cool to us. However, Brett did come off a little bit tight lipped, to match his cold and calculating features. It was like he might be afraid of what me and jbox might say to you, dear reader. As if at any moment something might be revealed, wherein I would pull out my trusty laptop while jbox would cry out, "Check and MATE!"

The only time he really perked up was when I called out Josh during lunch. We were asking them where they all were from and who they rooted for outside of work. Josh said, almost apologetically, that he rooted for one of the "big East Coast teams".

"Don't worry. It's not the really bad one."

"Which one do you think is the really bad one?" I asked.

"Oh, the Yankees of course."

I looked him in the eye and told him, "You sir, are much much worse."

JBox and I then went into a brief diatribe about how Boston fan is so smug about their championships, but furthermore feel like they're entitled to be smug because they were "long suffering". Yankee fans are just douchey, but Red Sock fans somehow end up being douchey and whiney at the same time.

That was the part where Brett perked up a little bit and started nodding, I think a little encouraged that we were right about something. Anything.

So, we insulted Josh and we weren't really sure if Brett liked us much at all.

Shaun, on the other hand, was very enthusiastic. I think we had a bond right off because the "salad" that came with our sandwiches consisted of shredded lettuce with no dressing.

Sure, we said. Send the not so subtle message to the fat guys.

We talked a bit about how the traditional media gets their hands tied and how little they can really report on because of the lack of hard proof. For example, he was pretty confident that most every sportswriter out there knew about steroids well before Jose Canseco exposed it to the world. It also didn't seem to come as a surprise to him that Ruben Rivera had been sneaking underage girls into bars and that Jim Leyritz is a swinger.

We also compared notes on some of the beat reporters who are left and what the state of the Padres online world is.

In summary:

619Sports is doing a great job.
MightyXX gets love from us because their interviews are good, they've shown us love, and their website is MUCH easier to work with than 1360's (read: I can open the site up and not be worried about NSFW content).
Sabermetric type fans are a niche that's tough to target, and, I guess, not one that gets targeted heavily.
Clayton Richard is doing a great job with his Facebook Fan Page.
Lots of regular conversation happens on Gaslamp Ball and the SignOnSanDiego forums.
Twitter's great if you're willing to put the time in to figure it out.
Paul DePodesta should blog more about more.

That's about it. JBox and I didn't ask for press creds or anything like that, though I'm still hopeful that Warren, despite insulting his team at various points during the lunch, will help us get some better interviews during the offseason and into next season.

Also, I'm hopeful that having a better relationship with these guys helps us get more better info with which to mold and shape into humorous anecdotes and wild assumptions.

Sox, Pads, Angels Talking Three Way Deal Involving Konerko, Gonzalez, and Prospects

2009-11-16T19:09:20Z

Sox, Pads, Angels Talking Three Way Deal Involving Konerko, Gonzalez, and Prospects

Think we'll get Peavy back in the deal???

Bill James 2010 Projections: Padres Pitchers

2009-11-16T16:35:11Z

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

You want to know how Heath Bell lost so much body mass? It be called Wii Fit Plus. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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I've been sitting on the rest of these projections for the Padres because it's a pain in the ass to transcribe the PDF over to a table in HTML. Rather than do that, I'll just upload the set of projections from the Bill James Handbook and we can talk about them in a civilized manner here.

I will also note that, after reading through the book itself, it's tough to judge it just based on the projections. They mention especially with pitchers how difficult (and pointless) it is to try to project something like wins or ERA considering how many things beyond the pitchers' control goes into these things.

Also, if you're gonna buy the book, here's a link to Amazon.

Now some notes on the projections:

Heath Bell is projected to lead the league in saves yet again. Also projected to mention how the new Wii Fit Plus will allow him to drink that much more beer while maintaining his svelte physique.
Kevin Correia is projected to lead the team in wins with 11. Clayton Richard follows with 9. To be fair, there aren't a whole lot of Padres pitchers even projected to start games for us.
Luke Gregerson is projected to do well again. Maybe a holdover closer if we can get value for Heath Bell? Hmmmmm?

In any case, it will be good to revisit these numbers once we start settling in a bit as to who our pitchers will be, but if that happens, then we won't be able to transfer over the ERA and W/L projections, so maybe it'll be a little bit hopeless.

(Also, yes. This is another post with an Amazon link. I'm trying to save for the holiday season.)

Ducksnorts still down, Masur still around, ROY soon to be found.

2009-11-16T15:40:07Z

I've never used this newfangled SBNation news clipper before. This be my first time. So I created some clips and there were only four and now here they are.

Ducksnorts Unraveled: Site Non-update
A few details on Ducksnorts and its current non-state. Apparently a hosting company got hosed. Pssst, Geoff... Wordpress.
MetsBlog.com " Read: Free Agents, Contracts, and the Economy
a MetsBlog post about free agents not getting much money this coming season. Adrian Gonzalez is discussed in the comments.
Masur's Musings: No News Yet...
Andy Masur's notes on the Padres trading block.
2009 MLB Awards: National League Rookie of the Year - ESPN
Rookie of the Year will be announced today. ESPN's list of the contenders.

Animated story of Doc Ellis throwing a no hitter in SD.

2009-11-14T19:11:58Z

Animated story of Doc Ellis throwing a no hitter in SD.

Gaslamp Book Club: The Bill James Handbook 2010

2009-11-13T15:56:43Z

I've always liked big baseball books, or at least, I've liked the idea of big baseball books. Tomes of base-ball knowledge!

Take this scene from a little known film about baseball:

Now, while you may have been paying attention to the moving monologue performed by Sir James Earl Jones, I was trying to determine exactly which page of the Baseball Encyclopedia he was on before being so rudely interrupted.

So what is a big baseball book lover to do? If you're me, then you and me are currently reading The Bill James Handbook 2010, which we recently had a preview for.

I know we looked at the 2010 hitter previews in the book before, but the much more interesting things are the plethora of statistics gathered and all of the imaginarily colorful black and white tables.

Like take for example the section on Manufactured Runs. Bill James' definition of a manufactured run is any run where at least 2 of the 4 total bases needed for a run come from something other than station to station baseball. When Adrian Gonzalez gets a base hit and then requires three more base hits in a row to score, Bill James considers that the opposite of a manufactured run.

However, when other teams besides the Padres get a player on base, steal second, then score on a single, that counts as a manufactured run.

So, knowing that manufactured runs sound like they'd be pretty fun to watch and would be effective ways of scoring runs, does it surprise you to know that the Padres were tied for third to last in all of baseball in manufactured runs (130 manufactured runs). That's a poorly written sentence, but basically, the Cubs and the Pirates were the only two teams who manufactured fewer runs (123 and 121 respectively).

Interestingly enough, the book also breaks down the number of times players participated in a manufactured run and despite the Padres only managing 130 manufactured, our own Everth Cabrera participated in 26 manufactured runs, which is among the top 10 in the NL. Anthony Keith Gwynn Jr and Chase Headley are second and third on the Padres with 19 and 15 contributions respectively.

So, what does that mean? What do we do with that?

If you're like me, you use the book to try to find stats to explain why you didn't find the Padres interesting this season and Manufactured Runs is a terrific one. Now, when people ask me why I got bored with the team, I have statistics to back me up.

Friar John's Blog: Coleman strikes the right chord in Veterans Day address

2009-11-12T22:07:48Z

Friar John's Blog: Coleman strikes the right chord in Veterans Day address

Listen to Jerry Coleman's Veterans day speech.

Around the Mission: 11/12 Padres Links

2009-11-12T18:56:12Z

Limited range puts votes out of Kouzmanoff's reach
Kouzmanoff did not immediately respond to an interview request placed through the Padres. Gonzalez said he suspects Kouzmanoff was overlooked because “his name doesn't pop to mind.”
Gonzalez in a golden position - The Boston Globe
“I’ve always said I’m in a win-win situation,’’ Gonzalez said. “If I stay, I’d be in position to keep playing in this great city before these great fans. More than likely, if I’m traded, I would go to a team that had a chance to win a World Series championship next year. I think if I stay, I should also be in a position to win a world championship someday.’’
Friar John's Blog: Good as Gold
Again, FJ agrees with Gonzo. That's Golden Rule No. 2: Defense paves the way for success at PETCO Park.
Unfinished Business: WHAT A JOKE!!!
Oh but of course, there is the little matter about his RF and UZR. According to a mlb.com article, Zimmerman's RF is 2.9 and Kouz's is 2.2. Zimmerman's UZR is 18.1 and Kouz's is 7.5. I HAVE NEVER EVER HEARS OF THESE TERMS!!!!! I have no idea what they are and why they should matter. Oh, Zimmerman's UZR is higher than Kouzmanoff's. Let's give the glove to him.
The Matt V. Charity Poker Tournament
Friday, November 13 (don't be scared it is lucky Poker Day!) Hall of Champions in Balboa Park - the only free parking lot in San Diego! Doors open at 5:30pm First Round 6pm

Adrian Gonzalez wins non-existent Modesty Award to accompany Gold Glove

2009-11-12T06:44:43Z

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

13 days ago: FILE - This is a July 30, 2009, file photo showing San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez eyeing a foul ball hit by Cincinnati Reds' Brandon Phillips for an out in the eighth inning of a baseball game in Cincinnati. Gonzalez was honored Wednesday Nov. 11, 2009, with a Gold Glove for fielding excellence. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Congratulations to Adrian Gonzalez for winning his second Gold Glove, I guess.

He doesn't sound the least bit excited about it. Instead he thinks that Helton, Pujols and Lee were all deserving and the voters chose him based on his defensive performance in 2008.

Is he trying to win a modesty award too? Is he aware that there is no modesty award? Furthermore does he know that it's really annoying that he can never just graciously accept an award or a compliment?

When it comes to Gold Gloves for first basemen voters like consistency but at third base it's a different story. They want flashy great plays and that's where Kouzmanoff was lacking. Sure he only had a few errors, but this isn't the award for fewest errors or best fielding percentage. It's an award of perception and if you want to be thought of as a great third basemen, then you better be diving into foul territory and throwing out runners while laying on your back.

Kouzmanoff barehanded a few bunts, made routine plays, but besides that I didn't see anything that impressive from him this season. If there weren't so many articles about his lack of errors and his Gold Glove candidacy in the past few months, I would never even have considered him.