Golden State Of Mind

Warriors Body Doubles: Player Comparisons using Pre-Draft Measurements

2012-05-25T22:15:13Z

I just did a massive data scraping from Draft Express, pulling 12 years worth of draft measurements, which I will use for analysis leading up to the big day. One of the things that we often seem to do around here is compare physical measurements (height, weight, reach, and wingspan) of draftees or current Warriors with other players around the league. It's a PITA to look this stuff up, but I think I can make it a little easier. And I'll give you an example using our current roster.

First, here is a table of all the measurements I pulled from DX (I converted all the length measurements to inches):

View in Google Spreadsheet

To find the similarities, I took the four body measurements (height, weight, wingspan, and reach), normalized them, and calculated a similarity score, which gave the following dendrogram:

You can actually download that PDF and search for players' names using Adobe Acrobat. The closer two players are on a branch, the more similar their pre-draft measurements. Of course, weight is going to change the most during a player's career, so that could change some of the comparisons. Still, this gives you a rough idea of player similarities, in terms of physical characteristics. So let's get going.

Stephen Curry

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Monta Ellis	2005	74.25	177	74.75	98
Ramon Sessions	2007	74	185	76.25	97.5
Stephen Curry	2009	74	181	75.5	97

Klay Thompson

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Antoine Wright	2005	77.25	203	80.75	104.5
Darington Hobson	2010	77.25	204	81.25	104.5
Klay Thompson	2011	77.75	206	81	103.5

David Lee

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
David Lee	2005	79.75	230	84	106.5
Tyler Hansbrough	2009	80.25	234	83.5	106
Justin Harper	2011	80	228	83.75	106

Andrew Bogut

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	2001	83.5	245	88	111
Andrew Bogut	2005	83	251	87	110.5
Yi Jianlian	2007	83	246	87.5	N/A

Brandon Rush

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Brandon Rush	2005	77	211	83.25	104.5
J.R. Giddens	2008	76	208	83.25	104
Xavier Henry	2010	77.25	210	83.25	105

Dominic McGuire

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Dominic McGuire	2007	79.75	220	82.5	104
Reyshawn Terry	2007	78.75	222	82	103.5
Luke Babbitt	2010	79.5	218	83.25	104.5
Tobias Harris	2011	78.5	223	83	103.5

Nate Robinson

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Nate Robinson	2004	67.75	181	73	91.5
Isaiah Thomas	2011	68.75	186	73.75	91.5

Charles Jenkins

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Charles Jenkins	2011	73.5	216	79.5	96.5
Shelvin Mack	2011	73	209	79.5	96.5

Jeremy Tyler

NAME	YEAR	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	WINGSPAN	REACH
Emeka Okafor	2004	80.75	257	88	110.5
Jeremy Tyler	2011	81	262	89	110.5

Have fun!

Warriors Set to Make Major Announcement at 10 am PST

2012-05-22T15:32:40Z

Per the Warriors website.

Hmmmmmmm, what could it be, I wonder?

Warriors will allow 2,017 points in their first 15 games next season?

Warriors have secretly stuffed the draft lottery box with 2,017 combinations involving us getting Anthony Davis?

Warriors to buy out Andris Biedrins for $2,017?

Waitasec... is that the TransAmerica building in the background?

Early props I guess to Adam Lauridsen for first tweeting this.

Poll

Assuming this announcement involves the Warriors moving to San Francisco in 2017, share your feelings.

Warriors Reportedly Moving To San Francisco, Announcement Coming Soon

2012-05-21T16:01:40Z

(SB Nation, Bill Hanstock) There have been rumblings for some time about the Golden State Warriors considering a move back to San Francisco. Now it appears as though those rumors are about to become a reality.

According to the San Jose Mercury News Warriors fan blog Fast Break (via Twitter) the team has finalized plans to move to San Francisco and an official announcement could come as soon as Tuesday. The new location for the team would be on Pier 31/32 and would be funded by private money, which would mean that the new Warriors arena would be just down the street from the San Francisco Giants and AT&T Park.

At this time, this report is unconfirmed.

Fast Break also reports that the new bay-front arena will be a state-of-the-art multi-use facility, which will also house concerts and other functions. This would further revitalize an already resurgent downtown. This is just what merchants in the area have been asking for, as business takes severe hits around the piers and AT&T Park when it is not baseball season.

If all goes well, the move would happen in 2017. Parking remains a concern, as only 1,000 parking spaces would be included in the plans. However, the public transportation options in San Francisco, including Muni and BART, are both top-notch.

The best player to come out of the Warriors' 2007 draft will be whoever Golden State picks with New...

2012-05-21T15:51:14Z

The best player to come out of the Warriors' 2007 draft will be whoever Golden State picks with New Jersey's 2012 second-round pick (which came over in the Wright trade last year). The sad part is that Wright and Belinelli actually proved to be a kinda decent players once they left the Warriors. And Golden State has nothing to show for it.

From Revisiting 2007, Where The Unspeakable Choice Was Born by SB Nation's Tom Ziller

There was no extra credit given to the Warriors for Belinelli being one of the most exciting summer league players in the last 5 years.

7. Golden State — John Henson, PF North Carolina The most Golden State Warriors pick ever, right?...

2012-05-16T18:00:38Z

7. Golden State — John Henson, PF North Carolina

The most Golden State Warriors pick ever, right? Think Ekpe Udoh, Brandan Wright (via draft-day trade), Anthony Randolph and others. David Lee is solid, but I think they could give in to Henson's monster range and massive potential.

Tom Martin over at The Dream Shake has a mock draft up. Look who he has at #7...

Klay Thompson named 6th best rookie.

2012-05-15T18:17:11Z

Klay Thompson named 6th best rookie.

Klay Thompson 6th in R.O.Y. voting.

Kyrie Irving wins ROY. Klay gets 5 2nd place votes and 15 3rd place votes among the 120 writers and broadcasters.

State of the Warriors Part I: Seriously Advanced Offensive Player Summaries for 2012

2012-05-13T15:18:05Z

The crickets are getting restless. The draft lottery is still a few weeks away, and while many Warriors fans have probably taken the summer off already, hardcore GSoMers like you are in need of some nourishment to keep you going. I'm here to satisfy a little bit of that hunger with some advanced stats, and not your run-of-the-mill TS% or USG%. I trust that if you're reading this now, you're smart and resourceful enough to look up those stats on your own. Heck, I'm sure you already have. No, even so-called "advanced stats" are not good enough for GSoM. In this post, I'm going to give a rundown of Synergy and my own metric Adjusted Four Factor +/- (A4PM), which breaks down RAPM into a player's effects on team shooting efficiency, turnover rates, rebounding, and free throw attempts.

Synergy

Recall that the video service Synergy breaks down plays into these categories (my abbreviations in parentheses):

Isolation (ISO)
Post-up (POST)
Pick and roll - ball handler shoots (BALL)
Pick and roll - rolling man shoots (MAN)
Spot-up jump shot (SPOT)
Coming off screen (SCREEN)
Hand off to shooter (HAND)
Cutting to basket (CUT)
Following offensive rebound (OREB)
Shot coming in transition (TRANS)
Other not categorized (OTHER)

Note that in these tables I only show players that qualified with enough plays to have a Synergy ranking. That's why, for example, you won't find Andris Biedrins anywhere.

ISO

Overall, the Warriors ran ISO 12.8% of the time with a 0.76 PPP (ranked #19 in the league).

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Brandon Rush	ISO	10.60%	60	0.87	42
David Lee	ISO	11.80%	139	0.86	46
Nate Robinson	ISO	18.00%	108	0.84	60
Klay Thompson	ISO	10.30%	88	0.77	104
Stephen Curry	ISO	15.10%	56	0.75	123
Monta Ellis	ISO	22.60%	201	0.73	142
Charles Jenkins	ISO	14.00%	50	0.72	148
Richard Jefferson	ISO	13.40%	27	0.67	177
Dorell Wright	ISO	7.60%	47	0.60	201
Dominic McGuire	ISO	15.50%	46	0.57	208

Isolation is a play that teams should generally try to avoid because is is not that efficient, although ironically, many of the league's star players are recognized for their ability in isolation (Melo, Kobe, etc.). Without having Monta Ellis around as an "iso crutch", the Warriors will most likely run this play less often - but that could be a blessing in disguise. And when MJ does feel the need to call ISO, the Warriors actually appear to have several decent options. It's nice to see Brandon Rush at the top of this list. He's known mostly for his spot-up shooting, but apparently, when he puts the ball on the floor, he is able to create his own shot and score efficiently. It's a relatively small sample size, though, and the previous season his efficiency on ISO was only 0.70. David Lee, on the other hand, was even more efficient in isolation last season (0.90 PPP), so that number looks believable. Stephen Curry was actually much better in ISO last season (0.93 PPP on 197 plays). He only ran 56 ISO plays this season, which is a relatively small sample, but my guess is that his ankle problems had something to do with his poorer performance this season.

SPOT

The Warriors ran SPOT 19.1% of the time for a 1.09 PPP which ranked #1 in the league. This is clearly our wheelhouse.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Stephen Curry	SPOT	21.40%	79	1.38	3
Richard Jefferson	SPOT	37.80%	76	1.37	5
Monta Ellis	SPOT	9.80%	87	1.29	9
Brandon Rush	SPOT	34.90%	198	1.22	17
Klay Thompson	SPOT	19.70%	168	1.13	35
Nate Robinson	SPOT	18.10%	109	1.11	41
Dorell Wright	SPOT	40.70%	251	1.07	62
Charles Jenkins	SPOT	22.10%	79	0.95	155
David Lee	SPOT	12.10%	143	0.93	171
Dominic McGuire	SPOT	11.50%	34	0.56	331

I know what you're thinking...Monta shot that efficiently? The year before his PPP on SPOT plays was only 1.01. In his short time with the Bucks, he shot 1.0 PPP in 50 attempts. This just shows you (like Brandon Rush's ISO efficiency above) to be careful when looking at these Synergy numbers. These numbers bounce around, sometimes quite a lot. It's pretty clear, though, that the Warriors have assembled a team with a bunch of good spot-up shooters. The addition of Bogut could even help space the floor more and make our perimeter shooting even better. That's the hope, anyway. Before moving on, I just have to point out one thing. Dominic McGuire. Dude really can't shoot. He may be the only player in the NBA who shot better in isolation than as a spot-up shooter, which is hilarious considering how bad his ISO efficiency was (0.57 PPP). Just saying. Dude who can't shoot.

POST

The Warriors ran this play 9.4% of the time for 0.84 PPP which ranked #15 in the league.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Monta Ellis	POST	7.70%	69	1.07	6
Ekpe Udoh	POST	37.50%	93	0.84	68
David Lee	POST	23.70%	280	0.83	73
Jeremy Tyler	POST	30.40%	80	0.83	73
Klay Thompson	POST	3.10%	26	0.77	105

How funny is it that the Warriors, generally known as a team with a woeful post offense, lose their two best post players, one of who is a small combo guard and the other has been referred to as a "No-Stats All-Star"? Yup, that's our Warriors. The hope is Andrew Bogut helps us here, but it should be noted that his POST efficiency this season was only 0.71 PPP. In 2010-11, his efficiency was somewhat better at 0.78 PPP. And going back to 2009-10, his efficiency was 0.80 PPP. Bogut certainly demands attention in the post, but he's not what you would call a high efficiency option down low. In Milwaukee he was asked to generate a lot of offense, and one would think that with the shooters we have, Bogut won't be counted on to generate nearly as much offense. But I think it's fair to say he doesn't solve all our problems down low. If you're expecting Dwight Howard type post offense (0.88 PPP on 57.4% of his plays), you may be sorely disappointed.

BALL

The Warriors ran this play 13.1% of the time for 0.79 PPP which ranked #17.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Brandon Rush	BALL	5.60%	32	0.97	14
Stephen Curry	BALL	25.70%	95	0.97	14
Charles Jenkins	BALL	35.30%	126	0.93	25
Nate Robinson	BALL	35.90%	216	0.82	58
Monta Ellis	BALL	28.30%	252	0.73	103
Dorell Wright	BALL	4.90%	30	0.70	112
Klay Thompson	BALL	9.80%	83	0.52	177

Last season Curry shot 0.89 PPP on the pick and roll play, and 0.81 PPP his rookie season. It appears he has steadily improved here, which is a great sign. The fact that Jenkins is already at 0.93 PPP (on 35%) is also very encouraging. If he can just add a 3-pt shot to his arsenal, he would be a much more efficient scorer, overall. In fact, CJ was quite a bit more efficient in the pick and roll than Kyrie Irving (0.82 PPP). It should be noted that the best PNR players run this play a lot more. 61% of Nash's shots came on this play (0.93 PPP). Chris Paul ran this play 41% of the time (0.94 PPP). As Curry and/or Jenkins run this play more, they will (deservedly) receive more defensive attention, so their efficiencies may decrease somewhat.

MAN

The Warriors ran this play 5.6% of the time for a 1.04 PPP which ranked #5.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Ekpe Udoh	MAN	10.50%	26	1.23	10
David Lee	MAN	19.30%	228	1.03	48
Jeremy Tyler	MAN	10.30%	27	0.74	125

This is where David Lee really helps. Pick your poison on the pick and roll, either Curry (Jenkins) or Lee. When the Warriors traded for Lee, one of the thoughts was that the PNR would become a bread-and-butter play for us. Now that Curry will be running the show in the backcourt, the odds of that happening are much higher. Regarding Udoh's apparently high efficiency, the sample size should be taken into account. In his short time with the Bucks, he shot 0.92 PPP on 37 pick and roll plays. That's not bad, though. Finally, it should be obvious that Tyler needs to improve in this area.

SCREEN

The Warriors ran this play 7.2% of the time at 0.92 PPP which ranked #10.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Stephen Curry	SCREEN	10.00%	37	1.05	14
Klay Thompson	SCREEN	28.10%	239	1.03	16
Monta Ellis	SCREEN	6.60%	59	0.83	75
Brandon Rush	SCREEN	8.80%	50	0.80	83
Dorell Wright	SCREEN	8.30%	51	0.59	119

It's pretty easy to predict the Warriors offensive scheme next season. Pick and roll with Curry and Lee. Klay Thompson coming off screens set by Lee or Bogut. Brandon Rush parking somewhere on the 3-pt line and keeping defenses honest. And on occasion, running a post play for Bogut.

TRANSITION

The Warriors ran this play 13.2% of the time at 1.15 PPP which ranked #9.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Dorell Wright	TRANS	20.90%	129	1.26	77
Brandon Rush	TRANS	21.00%	119	1.26	77
Nate Robinson	TRANS	15.10%	91	1.25	84
David Lee	TRANS	6.30%	75	1.24	89
Monta Ellis	TRANS	11.90%	106	1.22	103
Klay Thompson	TRANS	15.30%	130	1.12	165
Stephen Curry	TRANS	17.00%	63	1.05	206
Dominic McGuire	TRANS	16.60%	49	1.00	226
Charles Jenkins	TRANS	13.70%	49	0.73	284

Yay, Dorell wins a category! Ok, the only thing to note here is that Curry, Klay, and especially Jenkins need to pass more on transition plays, amirite?

CUT

The Warriors ran this play 7.2% of the time at 1.21 PPP which ranked #12.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Brandon Rush	CUT	4.90%	28	1.46	12
David Lee	CUT	11.30%	133	1.38	21
Monta Ellis	CUT	4.80%	43	1.30	46
Dorell Wright	CUT	5.70%	35	1.20	95
Dominic McGuire	CUT	19.30%	57	1.11	140
Ekpe Udoh	CUT	13.30%	33	0.97	186
Jeremy Tyler	CUT	16.00%	42	0.79	207

The Warriors have several guys who can finish around the basket. Right now, Jeremy Tyler doesn't appear to be one of those guys.

OREB

5.1% of the Warriors' plays came off of offensive rebounds at a 1.01 PPP which ranked #23.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Dorell Wright	OREB	5.20%	32	1.34	3
David Lee	OREB	8.60%	102	1.13	55
Jeremy Tyler	OREB	15.60%	41	0.95	123
Ekpe Udoh	OREB	10.90%	27	0.89	140
Dominic McGuire	OREB	12.20%	36	0.47	158

This is another area where Bogut should help, and yet another area where Tyler could use some improvement. And seriously, Dominic McGuire. #smh

HAND

This is a rarely used play (i.e. usually as the shot clock winds down). The Warriors ran this 1.7% of the time at 0.85 PPP which ranked #12.

NAME	PLAY	%TIME	NUM	PPP	RANK
Klay Thompson	HAND	3.80%	32	0.81	35

A4PM

For a complete description of A4PM see here and here. Briefly, the main idea is that I calculate adjusted versions of the four factors (eFG%, TOR, ORB%, FTA/FGA) on offense and defense, and then add up all those individual components to create a composite version of RAPM. One advantage of this technique is that, as opposed to RAPM, it is not as much of a "black box", since you can see the player's effect on the four factors. A second advantage is that it appears to be more stable year-to-year (as shown here), which suggests it's predictive capability may be better than RAPM (although I haven't proven that yet).

Here, I'll look at the 4 offensive components and the total offensive rating (O4PM).

O4PM

NAME	POSS	O4PM
Nate Robinson	2212	1.66
Stephen Curry	1417	1.23
Klay Thompson	2822	0.75
Brandon Rush	3149	0.37
David Lee	3915	0.26
Dorell Wright	3047	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	3072	-0.21
Dominic McGuire	1976	-0.48
Jeremy Tyler	878	-0.57
Andris Biedrins	1345	-0.66
Charles Jenkins	1487	-1.79

For the curious, Monta's O4PM was 0.22 this season, and Udoh's was 0.51.

eFG%

The OEFG column lists the adjusted eFG% value (in %-points) and RATING represents the contribution of that value to O4PM (in this case 1.77*eFG%).

NAME	POSS	RATING	OEFG
Stephen Curry	1417	1.45	0.82
Nate Robinson	2212	1.08	0.61
Dominic McGuire	1976	0.95	0.53
Brandon Rush	3149	0.87	0.49
Klay Thompson	2822	0.68	0.38
David Lee	3915	0.32	0.18
Andris Biedrins	1345	0.26	0.15
Dorell Wright	3047	0.13	0.07
Richard Jefferson	3072	-0.24	-0.14
Jeremy Tyler	878	-0.31	-0.18
Charles Jenkins	1487	-1.33	-0.75

OTOR

This is the adjusted turnover rate per 100 possessions (negative values are better, meaning fewer turnovers). The contribution to O4PM is -1.37*OTOR.

NAME	POSS	RATING	OTOR
Nate Robinson	2212	0.79	-0.58
Richard Jefferson	3072	0.69	-0.50
Klay Thompson	2822	0.65	-0.48
David Lee	3915	0.31	-0.22
Stephen Curry	1417	0.27	-0.20
Dorell Wright	3047	0.11	-0.08
Brandon Rush	3149	0.10	-0.07
Andris Biedrins	1345	0.06	-0.05
Charles Jenkins	1487	-0.09	0.07
Jeremy Tyler	878	-0.28	0.21
Dominic McGuire	1976	-0.78	0.57

ORR

The value given for ORR is the adjusted %-change in offensive rebounding rate. The contribution to O4PM is 0.31*ORR. No surprise here, we are not a good rebounding team.

NAME	POSS	RATING	ORR
Jeremy Tyler	878	0.11	0.35
David Lee	3915	-0.15	-0.49
Stephen Curry	1417	-0.17	-0.55
Dorell Wright	3047	-0.20	-0.65
Charles Jenkins	1487	-0.22	-0.71
Nate Robinson	2212	-0.31	-1.01
Klay Thompson	2822	-0.36	-1.17
Brandon Rush	3149	-0.42	-1.34
Dominic McGuire	1976	-0.51	-1.64
Richard Jefferson	3072	-0.55	-1.79
Andris Biedrins	1345	-0.58	-1.87

FTA/FGA

The value of OFTR is in terms of FTA per 100 FGA. The contribution to O4PM is 0.14*OFTR.

NAME	POSS	RATING	OFTR
Nate Robinson	2212	0.10	0.74
Dorell Wright	3047	-0.08	-0.54
Jeremy Tyler	878	-0.08	-0.61
Richard Jefferson	3072	-0.10	-0.73
Dominic McGuire	1976	-0.14	-0.97
Charles Jenkins	1487	-0.15	-1.08
Brandon Rush	3149	-0.19	-1.35
David Lee	3915	-0.21	-1.49
Klay Thompson	2822	-0.22	-1.57
Stephen Curry	1417	-0.31	-2.24
Andris Biedrins	1345	-0.41	-2.90

I'll be happy to answer any questions you have in the comments section. In Part 2, I'll go over the defense.

NBA franchises spend anywhere from 50 million to 100 million on yearly salaries, plus another few...

2012-05-08T23:37:49Z

NBA franchises spend anywhere from 50 million to 100 million on yearly salaries, plus another few million per year evaluating and developing players. For a scout or general manager (I've only been the latter), seeing a prospect for one measly four-month season of college ball increases the risk of being wrong about his potential. Remember, talent evaluation is a business in which, in the words of Jerry West, the greatest GM of all time, "Being right 51 percent of the time means you're doing well." Having an extra season to assess the potential of college players would cut down on the personnel mistakes that teams inevitably make in the draft, something that could potentially save the league tens of millions of dollars every year.

The Case for the 20-Year-Old Age Limit in the NBA

Not really to the point of his article, but you got to like that we have West on our side, eh?