The Ontario Reign are taking on the best team in the Pacific Division as they continue their quest for the Calder Cup. This will be their toughest test yet as they take on a team that always plays them close and was the regular season division winner. The Coachella Valley Firebirds are stacked with talent and are backstopped by a former NHL veteran who has made a lot of clutch saves in key situations. The Reign swept their first two series 5-0 while the Firebirds had a bye from the first round, going 3-1 to beat the Calgary Wranglers.

LA Kings Insider had a good rundown of the teams’ head-to-head this year, who split the series four games apiece. From their final match preview:

This year Ontario has won four of the first seven battles between the two clubs with a record of 4-2-0-1. The first two meetings were one-sided in favor of the Reign, who shut out Coachella Valley twice to open the series at Acrisure Arena before the teams skated to a split during a home-and-home weekend Dec. 1-2. Goaltender David Rittich manned the net in the first three contests for Ontario and posted shutouts in the first two with 41 saves on Oct. 25 and 24 on Nov. 21. The Reign have outscored CV 18-14 overall in this year’s series, going 5-for-23 on the power play (21.7%) and 20-for-23 on the penalty kill (87%). TJ Tynan has led the Reign in scoring against the Firebirds with 10 points on a goal and nine assists in the seven previous meetings this season, while Samuel Fagemo has five goals and an assist for six points in just five contests.

To help us preview this series, Sky On Air from Davy Jones’ Locker Room joins us to answer some questions.

1. Chris Driedger posted a shutout to beat the Wranglers. How clutch has he been both in the regular season and this postseason for Coachella?
   • Driedger’s been a gem for Coachella. He was a top 10 goalie for the Firebirds this year and bailed them out of some of their lesser habits like slow starts and some messy defensive play. Really, the biggest thing he did for Coachella was give them a chance to use their raw firepower, and give their young’uns a chance to screw up without it being a total bust. I’d say he’s been perfectly clutch this season. As for this playoffs? Well… Game 4 was probably a magnum opus in clutch goaltending; keeping the Wranglers off the board to get them to where they are now. Let’s hope that keeps up!
     
2. CV was far and away the best team in the division during the regular season. What did they learn from their bye and from their series against Calgary?
   • What they learned is that the curse of that bye is potentially very real. The rust was palpable from Game 1 against Calgary; they were sloppy as all get-out and they had to get their skating legs back under them; Game 2 was mired in controversy after how they won it (Devin Shore pushing it through Dustin Wolf amid a host of other potentially disqualifying things), Game 3 was a track meet, and it really felt like once they’d gotten used to what Calgary was throwing at them, they were finally able to slam the door shut and move on. Further, they got scoring from just about everywhere they could; Ryker Evans and Shane Wright have pitched in here and there, but guys like Devin Shore, Kole Lind, and Max McCormick, who’ve been down in Palm Desert all year, have once again risen to the occasion. They’re still gonna need more from their youths, but as they get more comfortable with the intensity of the playoffs, I think they’ll start to add more to the Firebirds’ attack.
     
3. We all know special teams basically determines a team’s fate in the postseason. It was only one series so far, but what are some patterns that were discernible? (ex: Ontario tends to take a lot of penalties but their penalty kill has been pretty good thus far but their power play has been awful.)
   • Well, if Round 2 was any indication, the Firebirds will give plenty of opportunity for the Reign to try and make it better. Coachella Valley had an…interesting relationship with officiating last round thanks to the circumstances of Game 2, but they’ve had some sloppy games here and there; with Ryker Evans taking special marks for getting caught high sticking over and over for whatever reason. Their power play has otherwise been up and down; always dangerous but not always getting the goal they want. Frankly, I’d just like to see what their power play looks like when it isn’t being juiced up by controversy, as was the case after Game 2 in Calgary. The entire series completely devolved past that point, and their playoff power play percentage is a bit skewed by having three of them dropped in a single period.
     
4. The regular season series between these two teams usually features a pretty tight score. Any thoughts / predictions what we can expect to see with more than 2 points on the line?
   • Probably more of the same. Erik Portillo’s playing out of his mind and the Reign have a ton of talents feeding each other goals; they are deep and have quality goaltending that any good team wanting to go far needs. Problem is…Coachella just beat a team like that in Calgary; who swept through their earlier round competition. It will be a grueling test, I’m making no bones about that. I’m just saying that after coming out of the loopiness of that last series, the Reign will need to clamp down on every last puck they find, because the Firebirds have made it abundantly clear through four games that they will hunt every last one of them down.
     
5. Final predictions for Coachella Valley / Ontario?
   • All 5 games and I tear my hair out as each one is an agonizing 3-2 victory between each other.

KEY PLAYERS

MATCH UP

Thank you, again, to Sky for helping us with this preview. Good luck to both teams and go Reign!

Deeply concerning defensive lapses aside to the second worst team in the NHL this year and nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Los Angeles Kings, with the help of the Vegas Golden Knights not showing up to their game against the Anaheim Ducks, managed to solidify their standing of 3rd place in the Pacific Division, giving them, for the third straight year, the Edmonton Oilers as their playoff opponent.

If at the beginning of the year, someone had said the Kings would finish with 99 points, that would’ve sounded pretty good. Third in the Pacific? Not too shabby. Could be better, could also certainly be worse. Yet, somehow 99 points doesn’t feel like that’s good enough anymore. Sure it gets them into the playoffs, but are they truly contenders or simply another first and out team?

The Kings finished with 104 points last year and it still felt like the kinda got a little lucky, which is a little wild because they ended 10th overall and fifth in their conference. Fifth! This year was mildly disappointing as their cold streak hit early in 2024 and the team ended up leaving valuable points on the table. Interestingly, even if they’d won five of their 11 overtime / shootout games this year, they still would’ve finished third based solely on regulation wins since Edmonton had the advantage there. A team this deep and talented on paper should be winning more games, right? Boring Hockey^TM gets the job done (usually), but is it enough to win the big shiny trophy which is really the ultimate measure of success? Well, we’re going to find out.

We’ve Been Here Before

The Oilers, with yet another new coach, are a much improved team this season. Part of that is a system that provides overall more team defense and doesn’t rely solely on the goaltender to stop pucks or Connor McDavid to outscore their problems. Per Natural Stat Trick, at 5v5, the Oilers are third overall in corsi-for percentage (CF%), about half a point ahead of the Kings. Their corsi-against per 60 (CA/60) is even better. They’re second with 52.62 CA/60 where the Kings are fifth (54.24 CA/60). Basically, they take a lot of shot attempts and suppress a lot, better than the once corsi Kings (although, to be fair, that title has basically been taken over by the Carolina Hurricanes).

Where the Kings could really get into trouble here is the goals-for per 60. In all situations, the Oilers are at 3.68 — meaning, they score an average of 3-4 goals per game. The Kings are a very middling 17th with 3.06 goals per 60. One point that might be in L.A.’s favor is their 2.53 goals against per 60 compared to Edmonton’s 2.85. The margin is small and leaves little room for error as, fancy stat wise, the two teams are fairly evenly matched.

It seems, then, that the crux of these games will come down to special teams as usual. Per NHL.com, Edmonton finished the season with a pretty hot power play, fourth overall at 26.3% (24.3% net¹ — good enough for second). Conversely, Los Angeles’s power play, which had started to cool by the end of the season, was 10th at 19.8% net (12th over the course of the season). The Oilers are also in a three-way tie for third in terms of net power play goals per game with 0.72. The Kings are 12th at 0.60. Basically, Edmonton more likely to score at least one PPG each game whereas it’s almost a coin toss for Los Angeles.

On the penalty kill, the Kings fared a little better. Their overall PK is second and their net PK% is third. The Oilers’ net PK% is 82.2 and 79.5% overall. Over 82 games, L.A. averaged 3.65 penalties per game and Edmonton averaged 3.86 pen taken/60. Once again, these teams are fairly close in certain measurable statistics on paper. But a lot can change inside of six months. Teams go through crazy ups and downs, hot and cold streaks, battle injuries and general randomness. But playoffs are a fresh start; the slate gets wiped clean and everyone starts anew. It will take a whole team effort to win four games in the first round this year.

The Fiala Effect

Last year’s playoffs ended after six games for Los Angeles. It was frustrating and heartbreaking after the previous year’s surprise entry into the postseason went seven games. The addition of Kevin Fiala was supposed to help the Kings lineup better against the Oilers. And it did — kind of.

In 2022, two of L.A.’s three wins were by a single goal. The third was a 4-0 victory. The team kept Game 7 close-ish but did surrender 41 shots on goal and couldn’t find a way to beat Mike Smith. It was clear the team had run out of gas and simply didn’t have the horses to compete in this track meet. The following year, the games were a lot closer. Only two of the four ended by more than one goal and three of them ended in overtime. Fiala didn’t play the first three games of the playoffs and coincidentally, the team lost the next three games after he returned. But, according to Natural Stat Trick, with him in the lineup, their CF/60 shot up from 53.69 to 65.83 at even strength. This could be the result of small sample sizes, but Fiala brings a presence to the team that can’t be ignored and he’s even better this year than he was last season.

Fiala played all 82 games this season and had a scoreline of 29-44-73. It was a tale of two halves for #22. According to NHL.com, St. Gallen native had 43 points (tied for first with Adrian Kempe) between Oct. 10, 2023 and Jan. 31, 2024 but had also been called for 24 penalties in 48 games. In the 34 games following the All-Star Break, Fiala only took seven penalties and scored 30 points. Prior to the break, the team’s power play was a middling 17th and rose to 12th in the second half with Fiala scoring 4 and 7 goals before and after.

Keys to Success

• Speeds Kills
  • The Oilers have a lot of fast players. The Kings will need to be at their very best on the neutral zone forecheck to slow them down and keep them to the edges.
• Special Teams
  • The penalty kill has been a staple of L.A.’s game for the last several seasons, but Edmonton has a lot of highly skilled players who can put the puck in the back of the net if you give them enough chances. Kempe, Fiala, and PL Dubois are the team’s biggest offenders and will need to do their best to stay out of the box.
  • When the power play is clicking, all five players on the ice are doing something productive — moving the puck, getting into or opening up shooting lanes, blocking out opponents, etc.– giving it a near tic-tac-toe effect.
• Boring Hockey^TM
  • The 1-3-1 isn’t the most exciting system to watch, but the smothering effect it has can work really well when players act in concert with each other. A killer forecheck is always necessary to win games, but it’s especially crucial for very fast teams like Edmonton.
• 5-Man Unit
  • Jim Fox preaches this on every broadcast and he’s absolutely correct. The only way for the Kings to win this series is by working together. One alarming thing that was noticeable in the last few games of the season was how disconnected everyone looked. “Too many passengers,” as Darryl Sutter used to say. That often left a few guys trying to do everything on their own without realizing that they have a teammate standing right next to them.
• Goaltending
  • Cam Talbot has a career save percentage of .914. His counterpart at the other end of the ice, Stuart Skinner, has a .910 save percentage. Talbot started off hot but seriously cooled off in January and never really got back to where he was in October. He’ll need to reach deep into whatever made him a .930 goaltender and sent him to Toronto if the team is to have success.

Expectations are riding high for the Kings, both internally and from fans. It may only be their third year in the postseason, but the city of Los Angeles is hungry for another championship and all hopes are riding on the hockey team (and the Dodgers but people are a bit more skeptical about that one). While winning the Stanley Cup would probably be considered a bonus considering where they came from just three years ago, there’s hope and anticipation that the Kings will go deep.

Schedule

First Round series schedule (subject to change):

Game 1: At Edmonton, 4/22 at Rogers Place, beginning at 7 p.m. (PT)
Game 2: At Edmonton, 4/24 at Rogers Place, beginning at 7 p.m. (PT)
Game 3: In Los Angeles, 4/26 at Crypto.com Arena, beginning at 7:30 p.m. (PT)
Game 4: In Los Angeles, 4/28 at Crypto.com Arena, beginning at 7:30 p.m. (PT)

• Game 5: At Edmonton, 5/1 at Rogers Place, start time TBD (if necessary)
• Game 6: In Los Angeles, 5/3 at Crypto.com Arena, start time TBD (if necessary)
• Game 7: At Edmonton, 5/5 at Rogers Place, start time TBD (if necessary)

First Round series broadcast schedule (subject to change):

Game 1: 4/22 – ESPN2, Bally Sports SoCal, LA Kings iHeartRadio, SN, CBC, TVAS
Game 2: 4/24 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, SN, CBC, TVAS, MAX
Game 3: 4/26 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, MAX, SN, TVAS
Game 4: 4/28 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, truTV, MAX, SN, SN1, TVAS

• Game 5: 5/1 – TBD
• Game 6: 5/3 – TBD
• Game 7: 5/5 – TBD

Footnotes

1. Net PP% is a team’s power play goals for (PP GF) minus its shorthanded goals against (SH GA) divided by its power play opportunities (PP Opp). 100% means that every power play opportunity was successful and that no shorthanded goals were scored against. It is possible for Net PP% to be negative if the team scores less power play goals than the shorthanded goals against that it allows. ↩︎

Jeffery James Carter, aka Carts aka Cartsy aka probably a lot of other nicknames has officially announced his retirement following the Pittsburgh Penguins’ final game of the 2023-24 season. The Penguins made a serious push to the playoffs in the last month but just fell a little short.

Part of the illustrious 2003 draft class, Carter made his NHL debut with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2005-06 along with fellow rookie and later fellow Cup winner Mike Richards. After a series of rumors abounded about both Richards and Carter in 2011, the duo were sent their separate ways from the city of Brotherly Love. Richards came to L.A. and Carter was shipped off to the Columbus Blue Jackets for eight months until General Manager Dean Lombardi traded for him on February 23, 2012.

Carter was instrumental in the team’s stretch run to make the playoffs. In his first 16 games with Los Angeles, he scored nine points, along with Jonathan Quick’s stellar performance in net, helped the Kings inch over the hump just enough to sneak into the playoffs as an 8-seed. Over the course of his tenure as general manager, Lombardi built the team carefully, often speaking about a final (or sometimes “missing”) piece to the puzzle. In 2012, Lombardi nailed that so-called missing piece. And it was true. Carter truly was the missing piece. His presence oriented the team in such a way that there was now depth down the middle, easing pressure on Kopitar’s line; Jordan Nolan and Dwight King came up from the Manchester Monarchs; and everyone’s roles now aligned perfectly with their skillsets.

In the playoffs, Carter was absolutely pivotal in the Kings’ first run to the Stanley Cup and was the offensive spark the team needed, scoring eight goals and five assists in 20 games. He had a dominant performance against the (then called) Phoenix Coyotes with a hat trick in Game 2, scored the overtime game winning goal in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final, and scored what ended up being the series clinching goal on the major power play in Game 6.

Carter’s 13 points in 18 games weren’t quite enough to get the team past the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013, even after taking a stick to the face from Duncan Keith, resulting in the latter’s suspension for the rest of the series.

In 2014, the now-29-year-old was looked to as a leader, on and off the ice, but most especially in shepherding dynamic young players Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson, a combination eventually dubbed “That ’70s Line” during the team’s playoff run. And once again, Carter was critical to the team’s success in their second climb up the mountain, this time tallying 25 points in 26 games.

Throughout the course of his NHL career, Carter became known as a game-breaker. He had the speed, vision, and silky smooth hands to be a difference maker. His goals were always timely. Hat tricks were somewhat of a rarer occurrence during the height of Carter’s career but he always made them look so easy.

But Carter wasn’t just good at scoring goals. He was physical when need-be and was a great defensive forward. No, he wasn’t an Anze Kopitar type with stalwart defense, but he was always in the right spot where he needed to be and was an essential part of special teams.

Carter was always one to show up in big games and big moments, even when those celebrating his own personal accomplishments. There’s no better example than capping off a thousand games with a tip-in goal, something he’d become somewhat famous for in the latter stages of his time with the Kings.

In January of 2021, Carter was dealt to the Penguins for a conditional 2022 3rd round pick and a conditional 2023 4th round pick (those picks became (Lucas Edmonds at 86th and Bogdan Konyushkov, 110th overall). One of his most iconic moments in black, gold, yellow, and white came against the Buffalo Sabres with an outstanding outburst of four goals.

Carter only made it to the postseason twice with Pittsburgh and had a final regular season scoreline of 52-48-100 in 241 games played. And while not quite a fairytale ending befitting Hollywood, in his final NHL game, Carter scored a bittersweet game tying goal versus the New York Islanders.

Postgame, all of the Isles players lined up to congratulate Carter on a great career.

But wait, there’s more!

Oof, right in the feels.

A hearty congratulations once again to Carter on more than 1300 games played and scoring 442 goals over the course of his career and wish him and his family all the best in retirement.

First year defender Brandt Clarke was named to the AHL’s All-Rookie Team for the 2023-24 season.

Clarke has a ridiculous 42 points (9-33-42) in 47 games played with the Ontario Reign this year. His point total far and away leads defensemen on the team and is good enough for eighth among all blueliners in the AHL, most of whom have played significantly more games than him. In his brief stint with the Los Angeles Kings this season, Clarke dressed in 16 games and tallied two goals and four assists. At just 21 years old, the Ottawa native is looking increasingly comfortable at the pro level and has a bright future ahead of him.

Sitting third in the Pacific Division with 87 points, the Ontario Reign punched their ticket to the Calder Cup playoffs on March 27, 2024 and sealed their home ice advantage with their 5-4 victory over the Henderson Silver Knights on Saturday night in Nevada.

They have just three games remaining and could possibly move into second place over the Tucson Roadrunners who have the regulation wins tiebreaker.

Thanks to TheAHL.com, here is a playoff primer. Let’s start with the qualification rules because there are a lot of teams that can make it to the dance.

With so many teams that make it into the playoffs, there are five total rounds. Since the Coachella Valley Firebirds have clinched the Pacific Division, they automatically get a bye into the second round and the rest of the division now re-seeded. In this case, the third place Reign will face the sixth place Bakersfield Condors.

Head-to-head this season, the Condors have a slight edge in the series so far, winning four of seven matchups. The two teams will face each other one more time before playoffs start on April 17 in Bakersfield.

Leading the team in goals is Samuel Fagemo with T.J. Tynan retaining his crown as the team points leader. Tynan’s 63 points are good enough for fifth overall in the AHL, while Fagemo’s 41 goals are eclipsed only by Adam Gaudette’s 44 goals in 68 games played. (Fagemo has only played 48 games, having spent eight games playing in the NHL with both the Nashville Predators and Los Angeles Kings.) The 24-year-old Swede will be looked to as a scoring leader as the Reign hope to hoist the Cup come June. Rookie defenseman Brandt Clarke has also had an impactful first season with Ontario, scoring 42 points in 47 games played (he also spent time in Los Angeles), leading the team’s D-corps by a significant margin.

Akil Thomas was also having a great season before his recent call up to the Kings. Alex Turcotte was activated from long-term injured reserve after a brief conditioning stint in the Inland Empire so Thomas’ time in the NHL came to an end. But should the Kings go deep in the playoffs, he may yet make a postseason impact for the big club.

The Road to the Cup

The first round will be difficult. Anything can happen in a three game series. The odds get slightly better in the second round, the division semi-finals, a best-of-five. The Firebirds are absolutely loaded with NHL prospects, thanks in part to how Seattle Kraken General Manager Ron Francis has opted to build his team, loading up on picks and potential rather than going after more established players a la Vegas Golden Knights.

In a stroke of good fortune, because each round re-seeds, the Reign wouldn’t have to face Coachella until the division finals, round three. It could be kicking the can down the road, or it could give Ontario enough time to find their footing and gain confidence as playoffs progress. Hockey so often comes down to a matter of chance or the bounce of a puck one way or another. Who’s to say fortune won’t favor the princes of the AHL?

In any case, the most difficult test may come down to (eventually) the Hershey Bears. Once again the Washington Capitals farm team rules the AHL with an iron paw, collecting the best record with no one else even close. But no one ever expects conquest to be easy. Here’s hoping for the black and silver to prevail through all five insane rounds of postseason hockey.

Good luck to the Ontario Reign as they make their own Quest for the Cup. You can buy tickets here or catch up on the latest happenings over at lakingsinsider.com

Tuesday’s 4-1 victory over the struggling Calgary Flames sealed the Los Angeles Kings’ postseason bid, officially clinching a berth in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs. In true Kings fashion, it took a little extra longer than would’ve been comfortable, nearly coming down to the wire unlike years past when they had a little more cushion. But two years after a somewhat surprising entry into the postseason, expectations have never been higher for the team.

Led by the likes of Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, fans are hoping for and anticipating a deep run, especially considering the splashy trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois over the summer and how much talent is on this roster. Combine that with all of the cap constraints that led General Manager Rob Blake to stay put at the trade deadline this year and the expectations for going far in the playoffs is at an all-time high. It’s not quite Cup or Bust, but not getting past their new nemesis Edmonton Oilers and / or the first round is no longer acceptable.

But inconsistent play across the board, even from shift to shift, is a worrisome little worm gnawing away at optimistic feelings.

Health and Depth

Injuries and illness happen. Of the team’s regular players, only about half of them have not missed time this season. That list includes Doughty, Trevor Moore, Kevian Fiala, Trevor Lewis, Pierre-Luc Dubois and newcomers Cam Talbot and Andreas Englund. On the bright side, rookie Alex Laferriere has been scratched only once this season and Quentin Byfield missed two games in January due to illness but has been otherwise healthy and both have been impactful in the lineup.

Depth was a serious concern at the trade deadline when it seemed like all the best players from the Ontario Reign had already been recalled and some of the most important players (like Adrian Kempe, Mikey Anderson, and Viktor Arvidsson) were hurt. Now is the time of year when guys are “banged up” and having a healthy roster heading into the playoffs will be a huge part of their success. The loss of Arvidsson during the 2022 playoffs was huge. His ability to get open and create plays cannot be understated. Despite losing in six games, he was an integral part of the matches being as close as they were last year. He led the Kings in both individual corsi-for and scoring-chances-for per 60. If he manages to stay healthy, Hiller and the coaching staff will lean heavily on him to help generate offense.

But there’s one significant name missing from the depth discussion.

The Curious Case of Arthur Kaliyev

Even amidst of the injury rash that plagued the Kings a few months ago, Arthur Kaliyev somehow lost his spot in the lineup to the point that interim head coach Jim Hiller decided to play 11 forwards and 7 defensemen instead of dressing Kaliyev. It’s interesting because on paper, Kaliyev is a hockey statistic come to life. That is, he’s basically a corsi demi-god. Among NHLers who have played at least 200 minutes (which equates to roughly 1/4 of the season), Kaliyev’s 19.84 individual corsi-for per 60 is 12th in the league. The next best King on the list is Carl Grundström at 14 followed by Adrian Kempe who is 26th. That is to say, he’s a shooting machine, something that should be badly wanted on the Kings.

However, neither Hiller nor former head coach Todd McLellan really seemed to know what to do with the Uzbekistan native. With the addition of Dubois and the emergence of Laferriere, it appears as though Kaliyev has been pushed out of the lineup. Somehow this 22-year-old with skills to get open and attempt nearly 20 shots every 60 minutes of playing time is not the right fit for L.A. all while his minutes in the games he does dress in often don’t break double digits. In his last game, an April 3rd victory over the Seattle Kraken, Kaliyev played just 2:32 total. Before that, an April 1 loss to Winnipeg, he played 3:29 with zero special teams time.

In the three seasons he’s been in the NHL, Kaliyev appears to have struggled to find a place in the lineup. Playing in the bottom-six hasn’t helped him much but there’s no room for him in the top-six. If it’s all hands on deck in the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see what Hiller does, especially if anyone gets injured.

Possible Playoff Scenarios

As of Saturday, April 13, there are several different scenarios in which the Kings can face the Vancouver Canucks, the Dallas Stars, or the Edmonton Oilers. But here’s the gist: L.A. can finish with a maximum of 101 points but could end up third in the division or as a wild card.

For top spot in the western conference, Vancouver currently has 107 points with two games remaining and Dallas has 111 points with one game remaining. Currently in second place, Edmonton has 102 points and three games remaining.

Here’s where it gets really interesting: if the Nashville Predators lose Monday’s game in regulation against the Pittsburgh Penguins, they’ll top out at 99 points. Should the Kings only collect two points in their next two matches, they have the regulation win tiebreaker. This only matters if the Vegas Golden Knights (WC2, 94 points) win out their last three games as the most they can get is 100 points.

Per NHL.com, here’s how the tiebreaker works:

With only four days left in the NHL schedule, postseason matchups seem to change by the hour. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess as to which opponent the Kings will face. And who’s to say which rival would be best? Edmonton has Connor McDavid and can outscore their problems. Dallas’s speed always gives L.A. fits and Jake Oettinger lives for big games. Vancouver has a solid roster up and down the lineup and should get Thatcher Demko back in time for playoffs. None of these teams would make for an easy series for Los Angeles.

TL;DR: playoff picture = 🤷‍♀️

With graying hair and slight hints of wrinkles around their eyes and smiles, a few LA Kings players are beginning to show their age off the ice. On the ice, there’s little sign that their 30+ year old bodies have been through the ringer throughout their careers.

At 36 years old, Anze Kopitar is still highly productive in all areas of the ice. He may not be a corsi god (that honor belongs to Arthur Kaliyev) but he excels perfectly at utilizing his large frame to block out defenders, score both pretty and ugly goals, is a key component of the power play and an even more critical member of the penalty kill. With an average of 1:51 shorthanded time on ice, he and fellow old Phillip Danault are always the first two forwards over the boards to defend 4v5.

At 31 years old, Danault is everything the Kings hoped for when they signed him to what seemed like a fairly lucrative $33,000,000¹ contract at the time (now it almost seems like a heavenly deal). The Quebec native is second on the team at CF% at 5v5; kills penalties without taking many himself (he has nine in 73 games played this season); and quarterbacks the second power play unit. Danault doesn’t garner as nearly as much attention as Kopitar or any of the other more notable players, but he remains an essential part of the Kings and their hopes for victory.

The first blueliner leaned on in all situations is Drew Doughty. Having grown up in the organization, the now 34-year-old has matured quite a bit over the years and really has earned his letter associated with leadership. Doughty routinely plays nearly 26 minutes a night (top in the NHL), has (mostly) stopped taking bad penalties, and is one goal away from tying a career high (he’s 12 points away from tying his career best).

Newcomer Cam Talbot is having a great year. He’s been a steady presence in net, playing with a calm, quiet, often seemingly unflappable style, a reassuring sight when the team in front of him gives up 16² scoring chances in a single period. The 36-year-old Caledonia (Canada, not Scotland) native did have a dip in play prior to the All Star break, but has looked better since returning from break in February. In 18 contests, he has one shutout, a .913 save percentage, and only three games with a sv% below .900 (league average for all goaltenders who have started at least 30 games is .904).

The Kings’ core leadership group may be considered “old”, but interestingly, their average age of 28.30³ years aligns closely with the league mean of approximately 28.43 years across all 32 teams. There’s an amusing tweet that has become meme-ified over the last few years as sports fans re-share the sentiment expressed in it.

Statistician and author Rob Vollman (also the Director of Analytics with the Kings in 2022-23) penned in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics, “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.” Vollman examined offense data across the NHL and saw a trend among players and their ages. Josh and Luke Younggren (otherwise known as the EvolvingWild twins) took an intricate look into this theory and suggested that it may be slightly off. In the 2017 article, they studied a new data model that utilized more of a baseball Wins Above Replacement style to create statistics. Interestingly, their results were a little all over the place, highlighting the complexity of evaluating player performance solely through statistical models. While data analysis offers valuable insights, the game on the ice often tells a whole different story, one where intangible qualities like leadership, experience, and sheer determination play a pivotal role.

As the Kings continue their Quest for the Cup, the seasoned veterans within their ranks defy the conventional wisdom of aging in professional sports. Along with their gray hairs, they bring a wealth of experience garnered only through time. As the NHL landscape evolves and new stars emerge, these seasoned warriors remain steadfast pillars of leadership and skill, guiding the Kings with wisdom and determination. In a sport where youth often reigns supreme, their continued dominance stands as a testament to the timeless power of passion, perseverance, and the enduring spirit of competition.

1. CapFriendly ↩︎
2. Natural Stat Trick ↩︎
3. Left Wing Lock ↩︎

Between a stoic Swede and a young Canadian hailed to be the “next Anze Kopitar”, Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield are hitting their strides at the exact right time for the Los Angeles Kings. Both first round draft picks (Kempe 29th overall in 2014; Byfield 2nd overall in 2020), the two forwards have become critical components to a Kings team trying its best to not only make the playoffs, but hopefully win a championship.

The Swede Life

Kempe, at 27 years old, brings more experience to the table compared to Byfield. However, his journey has been intriguing. He spent his draft +1 year in Sweden with MODO Hockey, where his statistics appeared somewhat underwhelming (5 goals, 12 assists, totaling 17 points in 50 games). This led to extensive debates about his readiness for North American play. Ultimately, he joined the Manchester Monarchs at the conclusion of their season, where he proved integral to their playoff success, tallying 8 goals and 9 assists in 17 games, as the AHL squad went on to win the Calder Cup in their final year in New Hampshire. Kempe spent the next entire season in Ontario (California) with the Reign, going 11-17-28 in 55 games and scoring his first career hat trick. In 2016-17, he played 25 games with the big club tallying 2-4-6. Whatever General Manager Rob Blake saw in him that year and during training camp in the fall of 2017 was enough as the Kramfors native has never gone back to the AHL.

His stat lines since then are as follows:

Kempe’s goal production has substantially increased since the shortened seasons of 2020-2022. Even though his goal output has dropped this season, his assists have shot up like a rocket, proving his merit as a skilled passer.

Kempe is a special player. He’s always been big and fast and skilled, but it seems that around the time he hit his physical peak (typically around age 25 for most athletes), that’s when he put it all together. He has incredible vision on the power play and knows how to find quiet areas of the ice from which he can show off his silky smooth hands. His edge work and speed rival that of some of the best players in the NHL. Best of all, he’s formed the kind of chemistry with Kopitar that the organization has been searching for since 2005. They read off each other beautifully and excel together.

The pair haven’t spent much time apart at 5v5 this season, with both former head coach Todd McLellan and current interim head coach Jim Hiller opting to keep the pair together as much as possible. Over the course of 819 minutes on the same line, they have a very healthy 53.69 CF%. Separate, Kempe’s CF% is 48.9 and Kopitar’s is 50% even. The team without either one on the ice is at 54.25%. In other words, with both Kempe and Kopitar playing alongside each other, the Kings own more than half of all shot attempts. It’s not just the “Anze Kopitar Effect” driving this. Kempe without Kopitar is only marginally worse than with him and same for Kopitar sans Kempe.

On the power play, the dynamic duo are even better together than at 5v5. Kevin Fiala presently leads the team in both goals and assists (11-19-30), but Kempe (who missed 5 games due to injury) is second with 5-19-24 and Kopitar is a close third at 9-13-22. With both of them on the man-advantage, the team controls an incredible 86.54% of shot attempts. Without Kopitar weighing them down, Kempe with other linemates gives the team a 90% control of shot attempts.

If the best defense is a good offense, then the penalty kill is an area where Kempe truly shines. Dating back to 2019-20, Kempe has scored 12 goals and 15 total points while the team was shorthanded. Only Trevor Moore in 2021-22 has outscored him on the penalty kill. He leads the Kings with 8.66 shots per 60 and an incredible 2.89 individual HDCF/60. Once again, only Moore bests him at individual scoring chances per 60 with 7.26 to 5.77 iCF/60. Among his peers league-wide who have played at least 50 minutes shorthanded, he ranks seventh in SF/60; his 11.55 iCF/60 put him 10th. As a formidable force on the penalty kill, Kempe’s ability to disrupt opponents’ plays and capitalize on scoring opportunities highlights his versatility and indispensability within the Kings’ lineup.

While Kempe excels in all areas of the ice, the biggest downside to his game are the numerous penalties he takes. Second only to Pierre-Luc Dubois this season, Kempe’s 28¹ penalties taken underscore a concerning element in his game. Despite tallying 41 goals last season, Kempe’s 44 PIM (far too many), actively hurt the team’s PK performance. He has proven himself a valuable killer, but frequent trips the box did not help the Kings’ miserable 24th overall penalty kill last season.

It sounds obvious, but if he can be more disciplined, Kempe gives himself more chances to score. Last year, he averaged 1.2 goals per 60 at 5v5, which equates to about 21.85 goals (he had 22). For every 2 minutes reduced on the ice, Kempe’s goal production dropped by about 0.04 goals/penalty or about 1.6 goals in 82 games. While this may not seem like a lot, the Kings are currently ranked 23rd in win percentage by one goal this year. His one goal could make a huge difference (especially given that they lost three one-goal games to the Edmonton Oilers in last season’s playoffs). Despite Kempe’s penchant for penalties, he has shown impressive growth both on and off the ice and the Kings are richer for it.

Byfield Busting Through

At just 21 years old, Quinton Byfield faces the high expectations of NHL stardom. The league has a reputation for being the pinnacle of hockey and it can take a while for players to find their footing and adapt, especially those who showed much promise in juniors. Fans are notoriously impatient and some “clever” ones took to social media, expressing their displeasure at the perceived lack of production, loudly and wrongly proclaiming that Byfield was worth giving up on. But they were wrong, so very wrong.

Byfield’s draft profile in 2020 proclaimed him to be Anze Kopitar 2.0 given his size, vision, and hands. That’s a lot of weight to put on a young player, particularly considering how good even the worst players entering the league are. Byfield made his NHL debut on April 29, 2021 to great fanfare and even higher expectations for his projected career trajectory. He centered a line of Kempe and Moore and didn’t look too overwhelmed in his first game. He played six more games with the Kings, finishing out the regular season with the big squad. Byfield started the following year in Ontario before returning to Los Angeles in January 2022. He played an additional 16 games with the Reign in 2022-23 but has since cemented his spot in the lineup.

In his first full season in the NHL, Byfield has demonstrated remarkable performance, accumulating 19-34-53 points in 75 games. Among those who have played at least 500 minutes this year, Byfield is fourth on the team in CF% with a sparkling 59.19. When it comes to limiting shot attempts-against, the Ontario native is, again, fourth on the team, behind only Kevin Fiala, Arthur Kaliyev, and Jordan Spence. Only Fiala has played more games than Byfield. His shots-for per 60 is good enough for eighth on the team, and he is second in limiting shots-against. When Byfield is on the ice, the team gives up the fewest goals-against per 60 at a paltry 1.68. Suffice it to say, he’s doing well both offensively and defensively, the latter being considered critical for success (at least on the Kings).

Most of Byfield’s success this season has come at even strength, rather than on the power play. That’s not to say he isn’t important to the team’s attempts on the man advantage. Of players who spent at least 20 minutes on the power play, his 87.33 CF% is good for eighth on the team. Interestingly, with Byfield and Kopitar on the same unit, the team only controls 75% of all shot attempts. But when he’s separated from both Kopitar and Kempe, the team’s CF% improves to 93.69 — small sample sizes (just under 50 minutes) notwithstanding.

As a young player, the Kings are still easing Byfield into the NHL and have not put him on the penalty kill yet. The coaching staff are trying to set him up for success by giving him soft minutes on the power play and primarily offensive zone starts when possible. However, his defense at 5v5 shows much promise and playing alongside Kopitar means he faces tough competition every night, going up against other teams’ top lines. With the trust the coaches have instilled in him so far, Byfield is thriving in his own right. He has proven to be an invaluable member of the team and will be leaned on heavily in the playoffs despite his lack of experience.

Where the team goes from here will be interesting to see. Kopitar recently signed a two year extension, which expires at the end of the 2025-26 season. Yet, the synergy within the Byfield – Kopitar – Kempe line is undeniable. Kopitar has found two wingers who complement his play exceptionally well. Together, they form a dynamic trio boasting a combination of size, speed, and skill. Their on-ice chemistry is palpable and promises exciting prospects for the team’s chances throughout the season as well as in the playoffs. In a way, they’re reminiscent of That ’70s Line from 2014 with Kopitar shepherding younger players and taking them under his wings (pun very much intended). The threesome have played together for 614 minutes and have a 54.13 CF% at 5v5; they’ve scored 30 goals and have only been on the ice for nine high danger goals against (typically goals scored anywhere in the triangle between the dots to the net), while also scoring 22 high danger goals. Their line is bested only by the tercet of Fiala – Dubois – Moore, who have a 57.05 CF%; have scored 28 goals; allowed nine HDGA and have netted 17 HDGF themselves in 590:40 minutes played together.

Over the last four years, Byfield and Kempe have both made terrific improvements to their games. Both were former high draft picks who have taken the extraordinary pressure they’re under well in stride. Growth isn’t linear and sometimes it seems like players have taken a step back, even mid-season. But as the 2023-24 season draws to a close, it’s clear that Byfield and Kempe are thriving like never before.

All statistics were taken from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.

1. Per NHL.com, Kempe has 28 penalties but one of them is a 10 minute misconduct, assessed on March 20, 2024 in the match against Minnesota. ↩︎

Thomas’s first NHL goal, and first career point, came at 11:13 in the first period. Thomas and PL Dubois came down the ice together, with Thomas using other players as a screen to find the back of the net. His goal also stands as the game-winner, a feat which he has accomplished nine times this season in the AHL, as well.

Thomas’s NHL debut comes after 154 career AHL games, where he has recorded 46 goals and 44 assists. He has dealt repeatedly with injuries over the past few years, but has had a strong 2023-24 season. Thomas is currently fourth on the Ontario Reign in overall points and second in goals.

Prior to his call-up, Thomas was named AHL Player of the Week for the week ending March 24. In that week, he recorded four goals and two assists. Three of those goals were game winners.

February was frosty to the Los Angeles Kings with Adrian Kempe, Mikey Anderson, Viktor Arvidsson, and Carl Grundström all going down with injuries. There was some good news: Arvidsson and Lizotte both returned to the lineup, though Arvidsson also got hurt again. But on top of losing three wingers, the team also suffered from their usual poor shooting luck and below average goaltending, leading to head coach Todd McLellan’s dismissal.

Spring usually brings with it happier news as the team’s shooting percentage awakes from hibernation and their general poor luck starts to turn around. In really good news, with 20 games left to play, they’ve managed to claw their way into third place (with the help of the Vegas Golden Knights having a downturn). They also have a fairly soft schedule coming up. It’s not exactly a cake-walk, but it isn’t exactly running the gauntlet either.

The Road Ahead

Here’s a quick rundown of their opponents in March and April:

As of March 9, the New York Islanders are two points out of a playoff spot with two games in hand on Tampa and could pose an issue for the Kings. However, with no serious moves at the deadline, General Manager Lou Lamoriello didn’t appear intent on pushing his team towards the postseason. The concerning slash slightly interesting games are the inter-division ones. Depending on how the next few weeks go, there could be a repeat of 2015 when the Calgary Flames played heartbreaker, causing them to miss the postseason by one point.

In other, good news: the team only has three more sets of back-to-back games. One is on the road (Chicago and Dallas March 15 & 16); one is at home (Chicago and Minnesota March 19 & 20); and one is home (Seattle) then road (San Jose) April 3 & 4. Additionally, the Kings have only eight more road games. With last change and (relatively) soft competition, that gives them an excellent chance to pick up enough points.

Their home / road split leaves a lot to be desired but the more important thing at this point in the season is how they’ve been playing lately. In their last 10 games, the Kings are 6-3-1 and have 75 points. If 100 points is the benchmark for the postseason, they will need to secure 25 points, or about 63%, to be guaranteed a spot in the dance.

On the other hand, points in the mid-90s might be enough to just squeak in. The top team in every division has 90 (Florida Panthers), 89 (Vancouver Canucks), 87 (Dallas Stars) and 84 (New York Rangers) points. Those teams have played 64, 65, and 62 games respectively. The (current) third place Metropolitan division Philadelphia Flyers have 74 points in 64 games played. Assuming they get the same 60% share of available points, that puts them at 94. Last year’s Islanders finished with 95 points and the spread was much wider across the board (only four teams ended with fewer than 100 points).

But back to the Kings. If 95 points is enough, then going .500 should do the trick. However, nothing is ever guaranteed so best to try and get as many wins as possible.

What Will It Take?

That is a loaded question. There’s a cliche that in order to know where you’re going, you have to know where you’ve been. Let’s start with who’s missing from the lineup.

Pheonix Copley – He was starting to really find his game before an unfortunate ACL injury ended his season. In his absence, even more of the workload fell on Cam Talbot who struggled a little. In his stead, David Rittich has performed well enough but has also had some games that seemed worrisome.

Carl Grundström – Although not known for his high-scoring abilities, the Swede brings a wealth of intangibles to the team. His hard, heavy shot is a noteworthy asset, contributing to the team’s success. Expected to net around 8-10 goals per season, it’s his role in easing the pressure on the top lines that truly makes him invaluable. He fits seamlessly into his bottom-six position and is a reliable defensive player. He ranks 10th among his teammates in shutting down scoring chances, a trait that’s desperately needed in the Kings’ bottom-six.

Viktor Arvidsson – What can be said about Arvy? He’s had a run of bad luck, unable to stay healthy for an entire season over the course his career. But he’s still incredibly valuable when he is in the lineup. Last year, he was first in individual chances-for; in individual high danger chances-for, he was eighth; in shots, he was second; he was tied for first with Grundström in rush attempts. No matter how you slice it, Arvidsson’s ability to generate offense is unparalleled and badly needed for a team that’s prone to stretches of poor shooting percentages.

Mikey Anderson – If you’re noticing Mikey on the ice, he’s probably doing something wrong. Anderson is the type of player who seems to largely fly under the radar. He’s a quiet producer, having scored only four goals and registered 13 total assists last year. But he seems to have found a great niche spot playing with Drew Droughty where both are able to contribute offensively and still manage to excel in their roles as defensemen. While Brandt Clarke may one day be a suitable top-four defenseman, the coaching staff are wisely reluctant to rush him into tough situations. In the meantime, Anderson’s skates are tough to fill for Jacob Moverare and Jordan Spence.

Outside of Copley, each player is week-to-week and could potentially return to the lineup this season. Rumor had it that General Manager Rob Blake initially looked to fill Kempe’s slot in the lineup, but ended up with a quiet deadline after all.

The Puck Stops Here

At the beginning of the season, there was speculation that Blake would be busy at the trade deadline looking for a goalie. But with Rittich playing decently well enough, Talbot back on the up-and-up, and a lousy trade market for keepers, the Kings stood pat.

Cam Talbot’s career save percentage of .914 is actually better than the league average of .906 over the last six seasons (including this one) and his current .918 sv% is in keeping with his most recent years (outside of a stint with the Ottawa Senators last year, who were not very good). In January, Talbot had his roughest stretch of games in a Kings uniform to date. From the 7th through the 24th, he allowed 4, 3, 3, 5, 5, and 5 goals against. His four games in February have been much better, allowing only one goal against in three of four games, with the only blemish being the team’s back-to-back in Calgary. Todd McLellan leaned heavily on Talbot, which may have contributed to his struggles in net and potentially also contributed to the former coach’s dismissal. New bench boss Jim Hiller has taken a different approach, instead choosing to have David Rittich split time with Talbot.

Rittich was recalled from Ontario in December after Copley injured himself in practice, has started 16 games and played in 18. His woes are unfortunately not much better than Talbot’s during the Kings’ recent poor stretch of play. In his worst games, Rittich allowed 3, 4, 4, and 4 goals against. His current .909 sv% is also in line with career .905 sv%.

But here’s why there’s little concern about the goaltending. Talbot is 5th best in high danger goals against average (HDAA) and 12th in goals against average (GAA) at all strengths while Rittich is 6th in GAA and 18th in HDGAA. It’s easy to nitpick specific games but overall, the netminding doesn’t seem to be as big of a question mark as it did in October. There are still some questions as to whether Talbot is up to the challenge of a grueling playoff schedule. But if the Kings give him some run support and he can maintain his career average save percentage (two big IFs), there’s little reason to doubt him.

Size vs. Structure

Elliotte Friedman brought up this point on a recent 32 Thoughts podcast. The Kings play with a great structure. They just don’t have the size to enforce it. They have tall guys, big bodies (such as Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kevin Fiala) but an injured Grundström really does hurt the bottom six’s ability to enforce the system. In theory, if they were going to do anything at the deadline, it would’ve been a Hail Mary for Blake to keep his job. Any deals likely would’ve included giving away skilled players for big bottom-six players (similar to Dwight King and Jordan Nolan in 2012. And yes, they were called up but also played a crucial role in that team turning things around). Ultimately, Kempe progressed more quickly than originally anticipated but their bottom-six still has a hole in it.

General (Mis)Management

Rob Blake hitched his wagon to the wrong players in Fiala and Dubois. Having just one of those guys is fine but having both of them creates a tough situation in the room. After Doughty got mad they missed the playoffs a few years back, Blake started making trades and signings based on potential playoff matchups. Phillip Danault (still a great signing) was brought in to neutralize Mark Stone should the Kings face Vegas in the playoffs; Fiala was brought in to frustrate a potential Avalanche matchup; Dubois was brought in to help with center size and depth against Edmonton following disappointment at their Alberta rival’s hands two years running.

His most recent moves seem like he’s been trying to plug potential holes instead of creating a roster with a clear identity, unlike his predecessor who leaned too heavily on team vibes. He has also hamstrung himself with the salary cap. This may be his last shot at getting this team deep into the playoffs. If it doesn’t work out and he’s fired, the cap crunch is the next guy’s problem.

Good Vibes Only

DJ Smith was hired as an assistant because he is Mr. Good Vibes, a la John Stevens. He’s probably not adding much in terms of system or X’s and O’s. Hiller was an assistant with Smith in Toronto and did a good job smoothing things over when Mike Babcock was trying to toughen up Mitch Marner and the other young guys. Smith’s job is to try to get all the guys happy and tolerating each other again. It’s hard to do late in a season but winning cures all ills. Hopefully they can keep it up.

Fancy Stats

Here’s the quick and dirty: the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. They play well with structure, get lots of unblocked shots through, and are excellent at suppressing shots against. By all accounts, they should be winning lots of games. But, as we all know, hockey isn’t played on paper and the team has had some serious lapses across the board. Their victory against the Devils was one of their best, most complete matches to date. They’ll need to keep that up not only to get into the playoffs but to have success in the postseason, especially, if as the March standings indicate (although take note that things change almost daily), Edmonton will be their first round opponent yet again.

What’s Next?

Now that the trade deadline has passed, this time of year has become slightly less contentious. Or perhaps, that contentiousness has merely shifted away from the unknown of where a player may end up to the excitement of trying to make the postseason (at least for those whose teams have not already been eliminated). Hockey fans are thrilled that every game has so much meaning attached to it. Every win or loss seems to send the standings into a wild tug-o-war.

For the Kings, who chose not to alter their roster, it’ll be about focusing their game on consistency and just trying to get two points. They’re an excellent defensive team and they’ll need to really lock that in to keep pucks out of their net and their goals-against down. Talbot and Rittich can only do so much. Either one may be able to steal an occasional game for the Kings, but both netminders will need all the help they can get.