Lighthouse Hockey

NHL CBA Termination: You Can Panic, But This Isn't Why [+playoff open thread]

2012-05-16T22:34:13Z

Note: Sorry, this was intended to be the night's playoff thread; no idea why it didn't show on the front page.

I've been waiting for this day because it was a somewhat obscure procedural date that, had there been no news, would mean something potentially pleasant: Guaranteed full season of NHL hockey next year!

Alas, with the current CBA having been extended once already, there wasn't much likelihood that both sides would prefer to punt negotiations again and play one more year under the current deal. So that's why you saw news today -- four months before the agreement's expiration on Sept. 15 -- that the NHL officially filed notice of its intent to terminate or modify the current agreement.

As has been mentioned (though sometimes buried) in most reports, this was an expected move. The NHL has talked openly of the next CBA and though they've rightly given no specifics, they'll certainly want changes.

The salary cap, which might rise to as high as $69 million this summer after starting at $39 million in 2005-06, has also dragged the salary floor up with it thanks to the concrete payroll range of $16 million (give or take a buyout and a Redden). This has nothing to do with being an Islanders fan, but I have to laugh when I hear pundits rip cheap teams in this league as if the cost of doing business hasn't skyrocketed. True, NHL revenues have boomed. But it's still largely the top 5-6 revenue-generating teams who are responsible for that -- teams that spent to the current cap level even before the lockout. (Yes, this screams for increased revenue sharing, a topic for another day.)

Anyway, it would be nice if the two sides started talking ... sometime ... soon. And you're welcome to panic about the state of the CBA. But if you're the panicking type, today's news isn't a good reason to turn your Panic Level up to Orange; that move was coming all along.

Tonight's playoff game: Rangers vs. Devils, Game 2. Chat it up here, and remember the IIHF WC quarterfinals start bright and early tomorrow for North American viewers.

The New York Islanders and The Rebuild

2012-05-16T15:22:50Z

A post over at The Copper & Blue by Ryan Batty, How A Rebuild Defence Is Built And What This Means For the Oilers?, caught my eye and got me thinking about where the Islanders currently stand. He links to a couple of pieces by Jonathan Willis at Cult of Hockey that examine how some teams have rebuilt to varying degrees of success (e.g., our 1994-2002 Islanders are included for their abject failure).

Two things struck me from these articles. First, Willis’ analysis of the Kings points to the kind of approach the Islanders will probably need to take (or maybe should take) if they want to be successful, and there seem to be a lot of parallels that can be drawn. Second, Batty’s piece covers a lot of what the Islanders need to think about when it comes to building a competitive blue line. And the underlying principle from both articles is that patience is key. When you think you can’t wait anymore, be prepared to wait a lot longer.

We should probably peg the Islanders to a start date for the rebuild before we start this. I think a lot of fans would look to 2008, arguing that trading away first and second round picks in the 2007 draft marked an effort to make the playoffs at the expense of the future. While those moves do seem to belie a true rebuild, I’d argue they are a hiccup in a process that started with 14 picks in the 2006 draft. That draft churned out two key players, Kyle Okposo and Andrew MacDonald, in addition to several players still in the system somewhere (Jesse Joensuu, Rhett Rakhshani, Tomas Marcinko).

King Me

All of those picks play into just how important the draft is to a rebuild. Willis breaks down the Kings’ minutes through the first two rounds of the playoffs this year in a nice graph. 45% of those minutes were played by guys the Kings drafted; 39% were players acquired through trade and just 16% came via free agency. Considering you generally need to trade either picks or players you’ve drafted, you can really attribute almost 85% of the minutes to Kings assets. Free agency is playing a relatively small role. Given the difficulties the Islanders seem to have with the UFA market, this is somewhat encouraging to see.

Obviously the key here is asset management. We really don’t have a grasp on how Snow will manage his personnel as prospects become players and dearth becomes surplus, but this will be absolutely crucial if the Islanders are going to succeed down the road. Yes the Kings got lucky landing Quick and Doughty, but they also made timely moves to acquire Richards and Carter. We often fret that we didn’t get lucky like the Penguins or Oilers, drafting first or second overall multiple times, but the Kings never only drafted #2 once. Willis lists their first round picks from the rebuild years:

2003 – 13th overall – Dustin Brown
2004 – 11th overall – Lauri Tukonen
2005 – 11th overall – Anze Kopitar
2006 – 11th overall – Jonathan Bernier
2007 – 4th overall – Thomas Hickey
2008 – 2nd overall – Drew Doughty
2008 – 13th overall – Colten Teubert
2009 – 5th overall – Brayden Schenn

What’s nice here is we see not every pick needs to be a home run. There are some good and great players in there, but some busts as well. We’ve been fretting a lot about whether the Islanders have accomplished what they need to with their first round picks, but it doesn’t seem necessary (nor is it possible) to nail each and every one. We know we have a star in Tavares, and a contributing player in Okposo. Bailey seems ready to join Okposo. Whether Nino and Strome ever provide that remains to be seen...

The other takeaway here, is rebuilding is a long, long process. It’s taken the Kings 10 years to get here. At best it seems the Isles are halfway through the process (more on this below).

Building a Defense Brick by Drafted Brick

The failings of the Islanders' defensive corps this past season has been discussed time and again here. Generally their performance as a group ranged between barely serviceable and glaring eyesore, and improving it is at the top of just about everyone's todo list. Batty's piece at Copper and Blue discusses the similar situation the Oilers are in, and how they might make strides going forward.

Batty looks at the successful rebuilds of the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Kings. Specifically, he runs through the six defensemen that led the teams in minutes in the year they won the Cup (or the Kings this year). Of the 18 players, ten were acquired through the draft, six were signed as free agents, and two were acquired via trade. So the belief that we might solve our defense problems through a big signing or two is somewhat misguided. Yes, free agents can provide an important piece, but the bulk needs to come from within. This is again good news in some ways, as it should alleviate some of the angst surrounding the Islanders’ ability to draw in free agents. Additionally, he notes how many years it was before the team won that they acquired each defenseman. On average, a defenseman was drafted, traded for, or signed 4.8 years before the team reached its goal. This is fairly significant. As of right now, the Islanders have one defenseman in the organization who fits that criteria: Andrew MacDonald.

Here is the Islanders current organizational defense as chronologically acquired:

Andrew MacDonald 2006 draft

Mark Katic 2007 draft

Travis Hamonic 2008 draft
Matt Donovan 2008 draft
Aaron Ness 2008 draft

Mark Streit 2008 FA signing

Calvin de Haan 2009 draft

Dylan Reese 2010 trade

Scott Mayfield 2011 draft
Andrei Pedan 2011 draft
Robbie Russo 2011 draft
Brendan Kichton 2011 draft

Ty Wishart 2011 trade

Mark Cantin 2012 trade

Again, assessing where we might be as far as building a solid blueline, it seems to be about halfway. If they can keep Streit, MacDonald, and Hamonic together, they have a nice base to fill via prospects, trade, or maybe a signing. The good news is that we appear to be on the right track. Batty notes that each of the successful teams had at least three homegrown players of their six leading defensemen. The Isles already have two, so that is a strong positive. Additionally, he notes that the Kings were able to speed this process up, with their players in the organization for an average of less than four years. 2015 is probably when we could start expecting some returns on the 2011 crop, but it could be sooner.

Obviously there’s a lot more that goes into making it to the promised land when you’re going through a rebuild, but there does seem to at least be a road map for how to get there. While we can probably start expecting some incremental improvements in the years to come, it’s good to be reminded that three, four, five years from now is when we really can expect to reap the benefits. And that same period of time is probably what will define Snow as a success or failure based on how he improves, or fails to improve, the team by juggling our assets and putting the pieces together.

Islanders Bits: Defense, Today and Tomorrow

2012-05-16T10:15:01Z

A couple of ugly hits in the Western Conference final Game 2 last night -- one by Shane Doan that I found to be tough luck for him (Trevor Lewis turned his back at the last second) and one by Martin Hanzal that was exactly the kind of avoidable hit that the NHL has long tried to remove. SB Nation coverage of that one and Coyote discipline here, and from myself here (is there any stopping the Kings?).

Those and other things were discussed in last night's game thread, where the IIHF quarterfinal notes are also posted. The quarterfinals begin in the wee hours (for North Americans) Thursday morning and continue back-to-back that day.

Meanwhile, more 2012 NHL Draft rankings roll in, with yet another top ranking for Nail Yakupov and a dice roll of the next three or four at Future Considerations. Craig Button drops Grigorenko further still on his rankings, though in his mock drafts he's been more realistic about where "the other Russian" will go. C&B discusses Morgan Rielly (a Phil Housley/Brian Campbell type?).

In Islanders Country, here's details for the Draft Party (Nino Niederreiter is expected) and here's Sound Tigers TV with Kevin Poulin ("We grew up together.") and several other exit interviews.

General Tomfoolery

More IIHF: U.S. ready for Finland rematch | TSN video

Playoffs: 10 Wild Stats Through the First Two Rounds - Arctic Ice Hockey

Cody Hodgson's Vancouver divorce: Who was more responsible here?

I would think Brooks Laich's effusive praise for D#$% Hunter Hockey was an ingredient here: Alexander Ovechkin's "jealous" comments confuse everyone. | May

The excellent Elliotte Friedman's 30 Thoughts: Patrick Kane's not a laughing matter, plus 30 Thoughts

The Kings are happy they were patient with Slava Voynov for four years. He's only 22.

Speaking of: On how "successful rebuilds" built their blueline.

Chicago media chasing the Patrick Kane intoxication.

IIHF WC Quarters Set; Evening NHL Playoff Thread

2012-05-15T23:33:51Z

The IIHF World Championship, which really is a busy schedule of a tournament, has narrowed the field down to the quarterfinals with the close of games today. Canada (John Tavares) and USA (Kyle Okposo, high-five proponent and generally relentless performer in this tourney) finished 1-2 in their group after the U.S. dumped Switzerland today.

The U.S. will face co-host Finland -- whom the U.S. blasted in the group stage -- on Thursday, while Canada takes on Slovakia. One interesting quarterfinal will be Norway, which lit up lesser teams including Denmark (Frans Nielsen), facing undefeated Russia.

It's been a disappointing tournament for the Swiss and especially Nino Niederreiter after he injured his ankle against Slovakia, (IPB with a link to some Swiss press on that injury), causing him to miss today's final preliminary game. Nonetheless, Switzerland has still secured a spot for the Sochi 2014 Olympics. (Will the NHL let players like Nino and Mark Streit go?) Germany, Latvia and Denmark are among the teams that will need to enter via a qualifying tournament in February 2013.

Chat up the IIHFs and tonight's NHL playoff game here.

Justin DiBenedetto: #23 on Islanders Top 25 Under 25

2012-05-15T16:30:02Z

This next one on our Islanders Top 25 Under 25 is interesting because if he has any NHL future, it projects as "annoying shift disturber" rather than "hey, might be a surprise middle sixer."

Justin DiBenedetto didn't get a recall from Bridgeport in 2011-12 and is one of the older figures in our Isles Under 25 pool, with his 24th birthday looming in August. But he showed up on most of our ballots and mostly in the same range.

	DOB	Draft	CIL	Mark	mikb	Chris	Dom	KQ	ICSFI
Justin DiBenedetto	8/25/88	2008	23	-	24	25	22	23	20

Panelists: CanadianIslesLifer making a return appearance, as well as most of the authors at LHH.

It appears consideration was given to the fact he is a working pro who has done well in Bridgeport -- and whose agitation skills are among the best in the biz. I mean, opponents haaaaate this guy, on a level that would earn his own Chappelle skit. He also had another solid year in AHL Bridgeport, though the counting stats are aided by powerplay time he is unlikely to receive in the NHL:

Justin DiBenedetto	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	SOG	PCT
2011-12 (AHL)	55	20	21	41	+7	73	8	0	155	12.9
2010-11 (AHL)	51	19	11	30	-4	45	9	0	121	15.7

A 6th-round (175th overall) pick in 2008 as part of the Islanders Sarnia trio, DiBenedetto doesn't bring a whole lot of size but plays big and feisty. You certainly don't have this kind of player for his fighting, but a player of his style certainly ends up in a handful of fights as tensions rise and patience expires. His progress in the AHL has been as you'd expect for his age and profile, though some injuries have limited his games played the past two seasons.

His entry level contract (ELC) expires this summer, so the Islanders will have to make a decision on whether to retain him by issuing a qualifying offer that gives him a modest raise on his NHL salary. But he is the kind of depth that is both "known" and worth keeping for more restricted servitude. Should be a no-brainer.

Disclaimers and Links You'll See with Each 25U25 Post

You can see which other prospects just missed our top 25 in this preview post. Others:

At #25 was 2011 pick John Persson
#24 saw another Swede from 2011, Johan Sundstrom

As you'll see with players in this 20-25 range, there's enough difference of opinion -- and uncertainty -- that some of them made ballots and some didn't.

To reflect the variety of ways you can place value on prospects with uncertain futures, we brought a range of philosophies to this: Some voters valued present talent/maturity more, some valued future potential more. All are averaged with the intent of capturing a moment in time in the evolution of the Islanders prospect pipeline.

Islanders Would Ya': Alexander Semin, Unrestricted Free Agent?

2012-05-15T10:30:03Z

The offseason focus for most New York Islanders fans (and arguably the GM) appears to be upgrading the blueline. But what say you to additions up front -- particularly if P.A. Parenteau is not re-signed?

Not surprisingly, it appears the Washington Capitals and Alexander Semin will at last be breaking up. After years bridging his RFA and UFA years with one-year trial dates while other Caps stars received DiPietro-length deals, Semin is ready to seek NHL work elsewhere, targeting a bigger role.

That's from his agent Mark Gandler, whom you'll recognize as the public muse behind the annual "Islanders talking to Yashin" reports which are due to resurface in, oh, about two months now. Gandler says "it's the organization, not the coach" and points to Semin's desire to play PK and last-minute, important type of minutes. It seems a mutual decision.

"Since you're aware of the consequences
I can pimp what's left of this wreck on you
Bit into a rotten one now didn't you?
I can watch you chew."

-"Now You Know," from Afghan Whigs (and the best dysfunctional relationship album man has conceived)

If Semin is ready for the kind of smart evolution in his game that Ilya Kovalchuk has undergone thanks, in part, to the influence of Jacques "This Way to the Defensive Zone!" Lemaire, then Semin's next team could be getting a gem of a guy after some other poor woman had to go through the growing pains and disappointments to round Semin into marriageable material.

If Semin remains an inconsistent enigma, however -- not just the easy stereotype tossed at Russian players, but continuing the truly enigmatic ups and downs that marked his low points in Washington -- then he'll be the same as he ever was: An outstanding talent from whom his team always expects more.

There are signs he has evolved and indeed precocious talents can evolve as they get older, mature further, see Father Time kicking at their Bossy-given talents, and get a perspective on the profession that their talent had previously hid from them.

The whole "playoff choke" label was never quite right -- he had a point per game or better in 2008 and 2009 and generated anywhere between three (2009) and a ridiculous six (2010) shots per game in the postseason. Forgive him for Jaroslav Halak having the spring of his life.

Production has dipped both in the regular season and the playoffs the past two years, however, and his ice time dropped to 16:47 in 2011-12, his lowest since his rookie year. He still had a healthy 2:31 per game on the powerplay. While he may have been bridging one-year, $6 million-plus contracts in hopes of a big UFA payday, at this point his asking price has to be less.

Still, that wrist shot from distance is a rare threat -- particularly for the Isles -- even if NHL defenses are trending toward blocking the lanes through which it travels.

Anyway, the point for our purposes is whether you think the 28-year-old left wing is worth flirting with. Perhaps in a short-term, "We'll give you opportunity, you make the most of it and earn a fat longer contract from someone" kind of arrangement? If the salary cap really goes up to $69 million, then the Isles would have around $14 million to play with just to get to the resulting $53 million floor. Bonus cushions will get you part of the way there, but there will need to be some money tossed in as the cap floor shoots way past double what it was in 2006.

The Islanders have Matt Moulson and Michael Grabner at left wing, but Semin would add a completely different kind of wing to the mix (if not exactly replace Parenteau if Parenteau walks). If they offered him responsible additional minutes and he actually ran with them, well, bonus.

The reason for even mulling it from my perspective is:

Adding more good players is always a goal.
If the cap is going up, might as well use the forced spending on something shiny.
Semin has something to prove, and the Island is one of opportunity for such players.
Rather than count on young players to step up, you through a genuine NHL talent into the mix to push others and, if he slacks, to give those youngsters a target to overcome.

The downside is you could drop some serious coin on a disappointment. But one or two years of overpayment for Semin is surely more rewarding than $5 million-plus on Brian Rolston.

So if you're Garth Snow ... would ya kick those tires?

Poll

Should the Islanders flirt with Semin?

Playoff Poll/Watch Thread: Rangers vs. Devils

2012-05-14T23:34:31Z

The Horror on the Hudson. The Metro Malaise. The Gotham Gurgitation.

Whether you're watching and hoping for a carwreck or averting your eyes while still hoping the same, you can still leave your pick for the Eastern Conference final that tragically features the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils revisiting their playoff encounter from 18 years ago in the Season That Didn't Happen, actually.

In fact, if memory serves, there was a lockout or something and they canceled the Stanley Cup and disposed of the World Series. But some still insist there was a Cup that year, awarded after some billionaires briefly moved the Edmonton Oilers to Manhattan.

Anyway ... dare we ask who your head and heart has in this one?

Pick 'em

Head Says: Whatever. But Rangers in 7, I guess.

Heart Says: Yeah, whatever too. But Devils, I guess.

But I know some of you are quite opinionated on this series, and quite opinionated on which team you detest most. Feel free to share.

Of Human Interest: Bryce Salvador's long road to concussion recovery. | In which Martin Brodeur shows some respect for Lundqvist.

Poll

Smurfs. Devils. Who you got, and in how many?

Rangers in 7: It's an EVEN STRENGTH goal!

14 votes

Rangers in 6: No really, it's an EVEN STRENGTH goal!

28 votes

Rangers in 5: That's, like, more impressive than a POWER PLAY goal!

16 votes

Rangers in 4: Why are you shouting about COMMON THINGS?

2 votes

Devils 4: Boy guys, I gotta tell ya', this Marty Brodeur is something else.

4 votes

Devils in 5: I mean he's reallly something else.

3 votes

Devils in 6: I mean some guys are one thing for sure...

45 votes

Devils in 7: ...but this guy, he's really reaaallly something else.

55 votes

167 votes | Poll has closed

Islanders Bits: Isles Set for IIHF Worlds Clash; Mama Tavares a Fan

2012-05-14T10:15:02Z

The United States made like Canada and destroyed defending champion Finland at the IIHF World Championship with a 5-0 win. The victory clinches a quarterfinal birth for the U.S. and featured an absolutely vicious check from behind by Anssi Salmela on Alex Goligoski that was bad enough to make an owner rethink his involvement with the game.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is on the brink of missing the quarterfinals and their Tuesday match against USA is critical. For Islanders watchers, Mark Streit is visibly frustrated with their mistakes and Nino Niederreiter's ice time has dropped as the tourney has progressed. (More observations in this comment thread here. Discussion of Nino from Duhatschek and Mirtle with 2:30 left in this podcast.)

Other Islanders-related links of interest:

Great profile of John Tavares and particularly his mother, who is an avid traveling fan of Team Canada. | Tavares thanks fans for the EA cover vote campaign.
An attempt to re-look at shot blocks with better context; Andrew MacDonald on the list.
Fun 1-on-1 with Matt Martin from The Checking Line.
Interesting this-and-that on the Islanders' policy of (mostly) closed practices.
Ryan Strome shut down in the final series for the second straight year, a sign he needs further pre-NHL development? [Also, more musing on Kabanov]
NEW (but not) Coliseum update: Lather, rinse, repeat. [FanShot] [7th Woman]

General Hockey:

Your crazy KHL rumor of the day: Exempting returning NHLers from the KHL salary cap?
Bourne on choosing college over juniors.
Old time craziness: Canadiens vs. Flyers pre-game brawl of '87 - The Globe and Mail [full insane 10-minute video here; those were the days]
More from NHLnumbers: The Myth of the Hot Goalie: Consistent Goaltenders vs. Inconsistent Goaltenders
...and: The Theory and Nature of Current Advanced Hockey Analysis | NHLNumbers.com
Humor: 30 Embarrassing NHL Team Name Google Image Search Results - Battle of California
More humor: VIDEO: John Tortorella's Press Conferences Remixed By Hockey Night In Canada - SBNation.com