Lighthouse Hockey

Islanders vs. Jets Gameday: Rise, Wishart Rise?

2012-02-14T11:30:04Z

Ty Wishart is 23 (24 in March), which is 1.5 years older than the still-open book of Josh Bailey and roughly the age of Andrew MacDonald when he turned another injury fill-in into a full-time job.

It's not exactly early for Wishart, currently with his third NHL franchise, but it's not quite late either. If the pending restricted free agent gets a real chance to show what he's learned this year logging minutes in multiple situations in AHL Bridgeport, this is a big 27 games. (If it lasts even close to that long. He is one of seven healthy defensemen on this trip.)

Jets (26-25-6, 10th/E) vs. Islanders (23-24-8, 13th/E)
8:30 p.m. | MSG+2 (twice the plus!) | Audio: NHL - WRHU
[random letters of some import] Centere
Thrasher inheritance: Arctic Ice Hockey

One of the knocks on Wishart in his career is something people see in Milan Jurcina: "Look at that big body...shouldn't he be more physical?" But as with Jurcina, a disinclination to use that big body to go boom can easily be forgiven if the more important parts of the game are adhered to: Namely, good shot prevention and puck movement.

In his first audition last year -- a 20-game sample too small to judge but large enough to intrigue -- Wishart's stats in that area were promising: A team-high Corsi Rel and an observable process of learning from his mistakes. That was a good stretch for the Isles overall, so there is some "Is it the Avery or the egg?" to that question.

Regardless, for whatever reason, he did not wow the Isles in camp in September and has gotten the call only now, with injuries to earlier callups Dylan Reese and Calvin de Haan making him next in line after Aaron Ness.

Granted, one reason Wishart is up is because of Travis Hamonic's broken nose, which is what makes the Islanders' task even taller lately. Without #1 d-man Hamonic a domino effect ensues, and it's one the Islanders are still trying to find the best way to address. That Aaron Ness was so quickly paired with Andrew MacDonald is either a sign of desperation and sheltering or else confidence, but I'll read it as confidence in Ness, who logged a third-highest ice time last game at 20:40.

Alas, there is still the other pairs to figure out -- who lines up with captain Mark Streit and who handles the rest. Here's hoping Wishart is up to throw another possible answer at that question.

Winnipeg Is Cold.

If you're looking for updates from Newsday today, beat writer Arthur Staple is not on the trip. Instead, it's Mark Herrmann. I don't know how one draws the short straw of taking the Winnipeg-in-February jaunt, but there you have it. Maybe he'll stir up trade rumors while trying to avoid going all The Shining in the prairies. (I know Winnipeg fans are tired of cold jokes, but ... well ... it's really cold. And we tire of Snow/Wang/DiPietro jokes that lack historical context too, so hey. We all have crosses.)

But as for the Jets, they acquired a rookie penalty killer with a needlessly funny name. They're also messing with their lines, as they have a few players underproducing to their expectations (Eric Fehr, Nik Antropov). They're also 16-8-2 at home, a big disparity considering their near NHL-quasi-.500 record. Since* I have little hope for the Isles in St. Louis Thursday, they'll have to make this one count.

*That's actually an awful construction, as my personal hopes have little to do with the Islanders' have-to's, and in fact they should make tonight "count" regardless of their chances vs. the Blues. Those responsible for that sentence have been sacked.

Al Montoya has played in three games since Evander Kane pulled his, "Look ma, no brakes!" routine and gave him a concussion on Dec. 20. Running the goalie because you have the puck and feel no obligation to correct course the way you would if skating toward a ref, the endboards, or a small tiger cub let loose on the ice is one of the puzzling behaviors the NHL tolerates way too much.

So this is a game between two flawed teams that shouldn't make the playoffs and probably won't make the playoffs, but they're close enough to each other and to 8th to keep the dream alive and make things interesting. That's at least what you'd hope for from a transitional year. On that note, Montreal lost to Carolina in regulation last night, and Washington lost in regulation to San Jose.

Isles/League Bits

Zac Rinaldo checks like an idiot and got suspended for it. (Seriously, in what universe did these players learn how to deliver a body check? It's a skill, but it's not that hard.)
More people say Rick Nash is on the trading block, so of course some think he'll go to the Rangers.
I can't believe they need a vote of confidence for Joel Quenneville, but that's what he got from Stan Bowman. Also: We're not looking for a goaltender. So on your PR scorecard, Garth Snow is not intending to trade Evgeni Nabokov, and Bowman is not intending to acquire a goaltender.
This is funny: Pittsburgh Penguins Ask Fans: Hey, When Did You Join The Bandwagon? - SBNation.com
Wait ... are you sitting down? Mike Milbury said more dumb things.
You know who else says dumb things? Nassau County developers. This is too good to make up: "We will then pursue other teams that are out there that would maybe want to relocate to the Island, because it’s a great spot. Or not." Pigs at the trough, waiting their turn.
Mike Bossy mic'd up for Sunday's post-game Skate with the Greats deal.

FIG Picks

Leave your First Islanders Goal picks in this thread.

Contest Update: Voting for the XFINITY contestants

2012-02-14T02:42:22Z

Last month we mentioned a sponsored post to land (or vote for those who try to land) the "ultimate sports social media job." If you submitted yourself, let us know. If you didn't, oh well -- you can still vote on those who did.

Details from the sponsor on the context and how to vote are below. Voting now helps trim it to five finalists who then get to cover events March 8-11:

Have you ever watched one of those TV shows where from thousands of hopefuls, one star is born? Well, Lighthouse Hockey readers, here's your chance to play "starmaker" and help pick the new voice of sports in social media!

XFINITY is looking for the next renowned sports social media star through its Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The winning candidate will serve as the new voice of XFINITY in the sports social media space and go behind-the-scenes at some of the biggest sporting events in 2012, sharing exclusive insights and updates with fans.

From Feb. 9-19, you can review qualified entry videos and vote for the contestant you'd like to see advance to the finals of the XFINITY Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest. The five entrants with the most votes will advance to the final round of the contest where they will cover one of five premier sporting events the weekend of March 8-11. Fans can head today to Facebook.com/XFINITY and click on the Ultimate Sports Social Media Job contest tab to vote for your favorite personality (once per day)!

Will you choose the brainiac with the encyclopedia of stats, the former jock who knows the game inside out, or the corporate type who gets the marketing side of the business? You decide. Vote today at Facebook.com/XFINITY.

Islanders Bits: Coliseum Talk, Rental Defensemen, Hot Sound Tigers

2012-02-13T19:05:48Z

You probably know by now -- it was hinted last night and discussed in our a.m. thread -- that the Islanders have recalled Ty Wishart and returned Rhett Rakshani to Bridgeport.

With the two-game road trip through the continent's windswept plains this provides some blueline insurance at worst, and at best gives a glimpse at possibilities for next year's blueline, for those of us thinking Steve Staios et al are not long for this place. It's sometimes overlooked in our debate about whether (and when) to trade Evgeni Nabkov and our fretting over whether P.A. Parenteau will be re-signed or traded, but the Islanders do have some pending unrestricted free agent defensemen who might fetch a call from teams looking for depth.

If someone bites on Mark Eaton or Milan Jurcina, that would open up more slots for extended auditions like Aaron Ness and Wishart, even after Travis Hamonic returns from a broken nose. Add to this equation, Marty Reasoner is due back soon from IR.

More on the UFAs, tomorrow's Coliseum development gong show, and other hot topics:

Wang: All Options on the Table?

I haven't seen anyone describe tomorrow's "with or without the Islanders" developers meeting as well as Chris Botta does here, nearly lampooning the "Association For A Better Long Island":

You remember the ABLI, the group that spent a lot of money and influence campaigning against the Aug. 1 referendum.

These gentlemen wanted what’s best for Long Island and now – presto – they want to develop the property. Vincent Polimeni? He lost the bid in 2005 to the Lighthouse Group. Ed Blumenfeld? You got it. He came up way short almost seven years ago. Jan Burman? Another loser to the Lighthouse.

A little bit of discussion on that topic in this FanShot as well. The Islanders aren't participating in tomorrow's meeting.

And while we're talking about arenas and such (Brooklyn? Why do you ask?): A familiar lament that will accompany any venue not surrounded by acres upon acres of parking (and tailgating) space.

Tavares on the Coliseum, Doug Weight, Signing On, Playing Like Playoffs

Puck Daddy's Sean Leahy was at the Coli over the weekend and got some Q&A time with John Tavares, including:

It's funny, everyone thinks how much of a dump the Coliseum is. As much as we're here, you start to call it home, you start to feel comfortable here. I think it'll just be nice just to have the new state-of-the-art facility...

A little FanShot talk of it there.

Garth Snow on Nabokov and the UFAs

With ESPN's Pierre LeBrun:

"We have no intention of moving Evgeni," Snow said. "He’s been great for us. His performance speaks for itself."

There haven’t been any contract talks between the Islanders and Nabokov’s camp, but it’s not out of the question down the road.

"Yeah, we’d consider all options, we’re just not at that point yet," said Snow. "We just finished [signing] Frans [Nielsen] and we obviously have a few other players who are unrestricted free agents in July, so we’ll just chip away at them."

If you missed it over the weekend, Newsday also talked to Parenteau about his pending free agency.

Sound Tigers Hot

More talk of the Sound Tigers latest OT win in Fornabaio's gamer at the CT Post. Of interest in that Fornabaio blog linked at the top is Jeremy Colliton handling the defensive assignments for Bridgeport's playoff push. I mention this not because it's a surprise, exactly, but it's worth remembering if you're hoping Casey Cizikas' scoring (or David Ullstrom, for that matter) translates at the NHL level.

Those guys are likely to have more bottom-six type roles if and when they make the Islanders, not powerplay-type minutes. Which is great -- just, as usual, adjust expectations accordingly.

NHL

The toe drag is no more. [FanShot chatter of Comrie's retirement here.]

Funny Tumblr site of real hockey names [URL maybe NSFW?]. Also noted: So ... Zenon Konopka really wore #66 for the Ducks?

The Oilers have signed Andy Sutton to a one-year extension at $1.5 million. Copper & Blue not happy.

Gigantor

Finally, Gigantor has been a meme or charm of late around this site, getting ready for games. Mark ran with that to compile this video:

Bridgeport/Islanders Prospect Roundup, Feb. 13: Ty Wishart Recalled

2012-02-13T11:00:42Z

In two games this weekend Bridgeport put up an incredible 81 shots, scoring 10 goals. Defensively they only let up 58 shots and allowed 2 goals. To make things even more impressive, it wasn't all Casey Cizikas and Matt Donovan. Scoring came from all over the place, 4 assists from unheralded Kael Mouillierat (give the guy some Likes), a hat trick from fan favorite Micheal Haley and 4 assists from Jon Landry.

BP is picking the right time to get hot as the season winds down. They are 3 points behind rivals Connecticut with 2 games in hand. Although they are in 8th (tied for 7th currently) they have games in hand against 2 of the 3 teams 3 points behind them. With dreams of the playoffs (and possibly Home Ice) in the heads of everyone at BP, they are looking to win their first playoff series since 02-03. That team was lead in scoring by 22 year old Trent Hunter, and backstopped by 20 year old Rick DiPietro. May the future be brighter for the next generation of Sound Tigers in the NHL.

Friday February 11th Vs Springfield (Blue Jackets)

Earlier this season Manny Legace had BP's number. He allowed just 3 goals in 3 games, going 2-1 in those games. Today though was a storm that Legace probably didn't see coming when he strapped on the pads. BP scored 55 seconds into the game from Donovan (Cizikas, Sean Backman) and didn't let up as they outshot Springfield 13-6 in the first. Haley (Mouillierat, Brett Gentile) and Trevor Frischmon (Donovan) also scored. About 4 minutes into the 2nd it was Haley (Steven Olesky, Jeremy Colliton) putting another one home. Although Springfield got on the board, they were buried when Justin DiBenedetto (Mouilierat, Jon Landry) and Ty Wishart (Cizikas, David Ullstrom) scored on PP goals within a minute of each other. Wishart (Donovan, Mouilierat) and Haley (Mouilierat, Landry) scored in the 3rd after Legace was pulled to round out the scoring. 3rd Star Donovan, 2nd Star Wishart, 1st Star Haley. [Highlights]

Saturday February 12th Vs Connecticut (Short Island Smurfs)

Much different game, as goalies Kevin Poulin (27 Saves, 28 Shots) and Chad Johnson (40 Saves, 42 shots) were 1st and 3rd stars respectively. CT opened the scoring, but BP tied it up 5 minutes later from DiBenedetto (Landry, Backman). That was the end of scoring in regulation, CT outshot BP 12-8 in the 1st but BP took over the game with 33 shots in the final 2 periods against 16. 37 seconds into OT and Ullstrom (Landry) won the game and got himself 2nd star of the night honors.

It looks as though Wishart is on his way back to the Island [Update: With Rhett Rakhshani being returned to Bridgeport]. The Islanders are going to need to make a decision on the pending RFA either way, and it's always better to make that decision after seeing a player in the NHL.

Natural Born Kirills

Kirill Petrov played 1 game this week and notched an assist; on the season he has 15 goals, 12 assists for 27 points in 49 games.

Kirill Kabanov had an assist in 2 games this week. In 37 games he has 16 goals, 22 assists. Kabanov took an awful shot to the head.

CHL

What happens when Ryan Strome returns to the lineup? You win 3 straight games while posting 19 goals including 11 in one game. Strome had 2 goals and 2 assists (and 2nd star) in Niagra's 11-0 wipeout of Mississauga. He had 2 assists in his other 2 games this week. Mitchell Therot had no points this week. [Highlights from Mississauga]

Quiet week for John Persson who had no points in 3 games. In 54 games he has 19 Goals and 29 Assists.

Solid week from Brenden Kichton who had a goal and 3 assists in 3 games this week. In a 7-3 win early in the week, Kichton was also a +3.

In 5 games this week, Andrei Pedan had a goal and an assist. But he was also a -7 across those games including a -3 game and a -4 night.

Hit the Books*: NCAA

*Danish 401 is popular

Notre Dame dropped both games this weekend to Ferris State, scoring a single goal all weekend. Anders Lee had an assist. Robbie Russo was -2 (all from Saturday nights game).

North Dakota split it's weekend with Minnesota Duluth, with Brock Nelson scoring a goal in the losing effort on Saturday night.

Wisconsin and Jason Clark were off this weekend.

Denver swept it's weekend with Minnesota, with Scott Mayfield posting an assist in both games.

Cody Rosen did not play this week.

Finnish Loans & Trust

Mikko Koskinen played no games this week. In 17 games he has a 2.25 GAA, .919 SV% and an 8-4-3 record.

Jesse Joensuu has 10 goals and 12 assists through 40 games.

Johan Sundstrom played 2 games this week and had no points. On the season he has 5 goals and 2 assists in 40 games.

Panthers 4, Islanders 1: Slip, slip slide away

2012-02-12T22:56:24Z

Jack Capuano returned to the well again hoping for another game-saver from Evgeni Nabokov, but this time the Islanders' luck ran out.

At best only one of the four goals Nabokov conceded in two periods was really his fault, as screens, deflections and great passing were the rule on the Panthers' goals.

The Islanders actually opened the game with quality breakouts and promising horizontal passing plays -- perhaps too much passing even -- but more often than not the execution wasn't there, the connections frequently missed.

GS | ES | H2H | Shifts | Corsi | Zones | Recaps: NHL | Isles | SBN

On that note, during his customary second intermission interview Scott Allen the Islanders weren't so much losing the possession battle (shots were 17-16 through two) as they weren't executing the offensive situations they did create: Shooting wide from inside the blueline, shooting into the chest from inside the circles, misfiring on passes down low. According to the official sheet, the Islanders put 19 shots on that missed the net entirely.

The most heartbreaking moment, when it could've taken a different trajectory, was when Josh Bailey made a nifty play down low and his backhand hit the post instead of giving the Islanders a 2-0 lead.

Game Highlights

An example of how this game went, even when intentions were at their best:

In the second period, the John Tavares line replaced the fourth line to sustain pressure in the Panthers zone for some setups and shot attempts, with Aaron Ness pinching at the half boards once to put it back in and sustain the pressure. Once the Panthers got a clear, they were off to the races with their top line with Stephen Weiss, Ness briefly misread coverage long enough to make Steve Staios' gap too large, then was unable to recover and disrupt Kris Versteeg's nice feed to Tomas Fleischmann, who tapped it in at speed.

That was more of a brief misread or miscommunication for Ness though; his play continued to be at least intriguing. He logged another 20:40 today, essentially all of it at even strength.

Later it was Milan Jurcina's turn to misread. First while shorthanded, on Versteeg's goal he left Tomas Kopecky alone to provide a blanket screen on Nabokov (though the Islanders rarely try to devote a defenseman to move the screener on the PK). Later, on the second faceoff goal allowed in the game, Jurcina was clearly slow at best to read which man to take, finding himself in no man's land and providing a screen for Jack Skille's shot inside the post. That goal late in the second pretty much sealed the Isles' fate.

As for the Islanders' good things, well the main highlight was early, when P.A. Parenteau made a truly fantastic move around Fleischmann at the half boards and initiated a rush through the neutral zone. Parenteau found Frans Nielsen streaking over the center line and escaping Weiss' coverage, allowing Nielsen to break into the Panthers zone and pot the opening goal far side on Jose Theodore.

The whole first period was level though, and five minutes after Bailey's backhand bounced the wrong way off the iron, Tyson Strachan's shot from the point off a faceoff hit Staios' knee and went into the Islanders net instead of harmlessly wide.

Notes

* Al Montoya got some much needed ice time in the third period, though it was hardly what you'd call "work." With the Panthers up 4-1, most of the play was spent in the Panthers zone, the Islanders trying desperately to chip away at the deficit and the Panthers content to take their chances (3rd period shots: 11-4).

* The best moment from Al's return was when he lost an edge and fell on his tush but Fleischmann, already preparing his shot, didn't notice the extra net and instead rang it off the post.

* That didn't mean any extra work for the fourth line though: Jay Pandolfo, Tim Wallace and Nino Niederreiter didn't see the ice in the third until after the halfway mark with the score unchanged. At that point Capuano gave them three shifts to finish out the game, which is about their average for a normal period but rare for it to be condensed within a 10-minute stretch.

* I'm fine with Matt Martin's second-period roughing penalty -- he went in for a borderline high hit on a player who was already engaged along the boards -- but it was the kind of thing the Kings did 10 times yesterday without call. Three minors called total today (the Panthers got the other two), so again one wonders if the league could, at minimum, publicly share which rulebook it's using from month to month.

* It's been almost four months since the Islanders played the Panthers, but the result hasn't changed. The Panthers have their number this year and the Fleishcmann-Weiss-Versteeg connection is a big reason why. They'll meet one more time March 25, again on the second of a back-to-back though this time as part of a run of five consecutive road games for the Isles.

* * *

This talk of rest on this back-to-back weekend isn't a minor matter: The Isles hit the road this week with two difficult games, playing in Winnipeg which provides a decent home advantage for the Jets, and in St. Louis where the Blues are quite likely to put on a dominant display of possession.

Don't sign me up for the "Islanders shrank in the face of opportunity" camp though: This team is exactly what it is and has been all season. Their lone regulation win since the impressive 4-1 victory in Philadelphia last month was the 5-2 win in Carolina: Everything else in this 6-3-2 run has been a mix of shootout and OT wins and losses. This is the NHL standings era we are in, and feel-good moments, game-changing individual efforts and bacon-saving goaltending performances do not change that reality.

Islanders-Panthers [game thread]

2012-02-12T19:50:03Z

Next Game

Islanders (23-23-8, 13th/E) vs. Panthers (26-17-11, 7th/E)
3 p.m. EST | MSG+ | Audio: NHL - WRHU
Nassau [gloriously unsponsored] Veterans Mem. Coliseum
The Cats' Meow: Litter Box Cats

Islanders vs. Panthers Gameday: Double-Matinee Weekend

FIG Picks: Islanders vs. Panthers, Feb. 12, 3 p.m.

Time to Sell on Evgeni Nabokov

posted by garik16 about 12 hours ago

Complete Coverage >

Riding Evgeni Nabokov once again. Ride and roll, or pump and dump?

Islanders vs. Panthers Gameday: Double-Matinee Weekend

2012-02-12T11:30:03Z

At what point do we read Bridgeport's surprising post-New Year surge as a bright sign for the future? While the Islanders squeezed out an OT win yesterday, the Sound Tigers cruised to an 8-1 victory, with Ty Wishart picking up two goals and Micheal Haley picking up three. [Note: With two matinees this weekend, our weekly prospect update is deferred till tomorrow.]

Islanders (23-23-8, 13th/E) vs. Panthers (26-17-11, 7th/E)
3 p.m. EST | MSG+ | Audio: NHL - WRHU
Nassau [gloriously unsponsored] Veterans Mem. Coliseum
The Cats' Meow: Litter Box Cats

After a demoralizing loss to Southeast title rival Washington, the Panthers have reeled off two good wins in a row. Yesterday New Jersey was the victim, leaving the Panthers two points ahead of the now-9th place Caps.

On the Island, the Islanders' search for an answer to their bottom six puzzle continues, with Brian Rolston returning from hiatus yesterday and Rhett Rakhshani taking the healthy scratch. Today is another day, a day that comes all too quickly after yesterday's physically demanding contest.

The Islanders could make it a very significant weekend if they picked up another two points today. But their last three games, without Travis Hamonic, have indicated it will be a struggle at times. Yesterday was ultimately a little better -- to say nothing of the win -- and Aaron Ness logged a young-career-high 18:23, all at even strength.

I had a good time last night trading notes with my Minnesota Gopher friend -- I like to chirp him when Kyle Okposo has a goal -- about Aaron Ness and how his game could translate to the pros. "He just plays smart. That's why I liked him," my friend said. "He's got smarts. Unlike Erik Johnson."

The Hockey Club from Montreal kept the 8th seed bar low yesterday by absolutely destroying the 8th-place Maple Leafs 8-0. Their win, Tampa Bay's win and Winnipeg's loss means the crowd from 8 to 14 just gets tighter. Here's to hoping the whole bubble gets more crowded, just for the fun of it. The Islanders jumped from 14th to 11th back to 13th yesterday. All in a day's insanity.

Overall, the Panthers are starting to get healthier after a spate of tough injuries, and old friend Sean Bergenheim has returned to form to tally 10 goals in 33 games.

Mark Streit on the Comeback Trail:

I thought that I’m coming around, that I’ve played better. It took me a while to adjust, I was away for a year and a half. The first forty games was kind of a bumpy ride. I had some really good games and then some tougher games. Just not the consistency I was looking for...

Nabby stole the day yesterday. Dare the Islanders go back-to-back again with the hot, but old, hand?

The Islanders lost to the Panthers twice back in October, back when we thought losses to such teams were missed opportunities. Time to try again.

Links to Inform, Links to Entertain

P.A. Parenteau in Newsday, clearly wanting both to stay on Long Island and also to get a nice "only big [contract] left" for his still-young career.
Newsday's recap of yesterday has lots of "this is playoff hockey" talk. No margin for error.
Final of the three from Newsday: No worries, Matt Martin's alright after that awkward crash into the boards.
From yesterday's festivities: Kenny Jonsson Ceremony Video - NHL VideoCenter - NY Islanders
Hey look, Tavares is underrated: NHL's most underrated players - Yahoo! Sports Video
Yes, 11 ENG allowed will play a big part in the Isles' minus-18 in the third period.
Audio of Mike Bossy on the Obnoxious & Blowhard Show.

Around the NHL:

Hey look again, this could be really useful: NHL Injuries and Scratches 2005-06 to Present - Arctic Ice Hockey
Also really useful: Percentages & PDO: Home and Away - Arctic Ice Hockey
The Rangers own the Flyers (how many losses in a row is that for the Flyers to the metro teams?), and Kimmo Timonen rips his team's effort.
Heh: The NHL’s worst powerplay specialists (things Scott Gomez is not good at) | Backhand Shel
Leafs a plenty: How Mats Sundin’s no-trade clause controversy made fans reconsider loyalty in NHL | Puck Daddy and Bitter Leaf Fan Page: NHL Fines and Suspensions (aka $2500 and an alligator purse)
Another angle on an important point, from our pal (You are my pal, aren't you Danny? Hmm? Hmm?) Neil Greenberg: On the randomness of plus/minus - Japers' Rink
Who here remembers Rendez-vous '87? I not only remember it, I loved every minute of it, and I can still hear ESPN's Tom Meese saying, "Rendez-vous '87 in Quebec City."

FIG Picks

Leave your First Islanders Goal picks for today's game in this thread.

Time to Sell on Evgeni Nabokov

2012-02-12T07:18:38Z

Editor's Note: FanPost front-paged for this hot topic of the next two weeks.

Evgeni Nabakov has been amazing for the Isles over the past few weeks, and he's certainly been responsible for the wins against LA and Philly in the last week. If he could continue to play like this, the Isles MIGHT have a shot at the playoffs.

And yet the Islanders need to trade Nabokov for a prospect/draft pick. Preferably soon.

There are two reasons for this. The first is less important, but is easier to understand so I'll start with that:

1. Nabokov's high SV% is not REAL - it's a facade caused by luck on special teams that is likely to crumble. Nabokov has essentially been the 22nd best goalie in the league this year - NOT the 7th best as his ordinary SV% suggests. He is NOT an elite goalie (though he is certainly average) and the longer he plays for the Isles, the more likely his true talent will cause his results to drop, and lower his trade value.

How can I say this? Well, SV% is a decent statistic at judging goalies, and is far better than say the older Goals Against Average. But it has one key flaw - it treats Even Strength, Power Play, and Penalty Kill minutes as if they're all the same.

But of course, they're not...a goalie's SV% on the Penalty Kill is dramatically lower than his SV% at Even Strength. You can't combine the two as they're essentially separate skills, but SV% does just that.

In addition, the amount of time a goalie spends on the penalty kill is far lower than it is at even strength, meaning fluke results can cause a goalies penalty kill SV% to be extremely high or extremely low, simply as the result of small sample size (If a goalie faces 40 minutes of PK and stops 120 shots, he has a PKSV% of 1.000, but you wouldn't use that to judge him a great goalie on the PK.....as that's essentially like using 3 games of even strength data to judge a player.). In other words, Penalty Killing SV% is EXTREMELY variable, and that has basically nothing to do with goalie skill - the sample size is too small for us to really know how much is the goalie's own talent.* The end result is that regular SV% includes as a part of it a highly variable and basically useless statistic, which can cause it to appear higher or lower than it really should based upon a goalie's true talent.

*Before anyone suggests otherwise, no one denies that stopping shots on the PK is a skill for goalies. But measuring this skill is basically impossible, and including PK SV% data is essentially including 99% luck and 1% skill.

As a result, Hockey statisticians rely instead upon Even Strength Save % (ESSV%) to judge goalies, as that way we eliminate the problems caused by including Special teams Data. And by this measure, Nabokov is actually 22nd in the league among NHL goalies with 20 games or more played (.925 SV%). The Reason why Nabokov is 7th in overall SV% is simple: He's gotten insanely lucky on the Islanders PK, with a .951 PKSV% (2nd in the league)! Before anyone asks, this is nowhere near anything Nabokov has done in his career, where he usually has PK SV%s of .880 or so.

None of this should be surprising to any of you - Nabokov's current SV% would be his career high at age 36 and far above his .913 carer average.

Long story short, Nabokov's #s are a good deal smoke and mirrors - and are far far more likely to get worse than go up. Better to strike now and sell high while his value is as much as possible than to sit and wait it out.

Of course, that' s actually the least important reason why the Isles need to trade Nabokov. The real reason they need to do is this:

2. Nabokov has no long-term future on this team, he has value and we'll lose him at the end of this year. As a Small-Market Team, we need to ensure we get something for that value.

I've talked about this before, but the Isles are essentially a small market team due to their financial situation. We can't afford to go much higher if at all above the cap floor, which is why we don't end up signing many free agents. We sign our prospects, sure, because those are cheap investments we have for long term, and we sign those players we have who have unique talents (Nielsen) who we can't find elsewhere.

But if a player would leave the team at the end of the year and the team cannot re-sign that player or that player HAS VALUE but does NOT HAVE A PLACE IN THE TEAM'S FUTURE, the team needs to trade that player to get something for that value.

Nabokov is this type of player. His contract runs to the end of the season. Moreover, he's 36. Even if he wanted to sign with the Islanders again, he's probably on his last legs and he's 6th oldest in the NHL right now. At best the Islanders could expect from him to repeat his career average (not this current performance) next year, and more likely he'll get worse. No one escapes from aging.

And even if we did want to re-sign him, it'd be only as a short-term stopgap measure. You can't commit multiple years to Nabokov, another aging goalie. And the Islanders HAVE goalies to plug the hole. Al Montoya is still on the roster and can be signed for much cheaper. Kevin Poulin and Anders Nilsson are showing lots of promise in Bridgeport. Mikko Koskinen is still in the system. And the Islanders could of course pick another goalie with a late round pick in case these goalies don't pan out.

There's no reason to waste money for next year on an aging goalie when the Islanders are in their current situation. As a small market team therefore, the Islanders need to trade him and get what hey can for him.

"BUT, BUT, PLAYOFFS!" - You Cry!

Let's be realistic here guys. First off, as I detailed above, Nabokov's performance is likely to drop a decent amount as his PK luck falls down to earth. The performances lately are the EXCEPTION, not the rule. It's not clear that Nabokov is better than Al Montoya. So even keeping Nabokov likely doesn't give the Isles a much better shot at the playoffs.

But even if it did, we have to be realistic. Let's assume that 90 points gets you into the playoffs (Probably need 92, but I'm doing this for easier math). The Isles would thus need to accumulate 36 more points this season, with 28 games remaining. That's a pace of 1.285 points per game. Essentially the Islanders would have to play like a 105 point team the rest of the way to pull that off (essentially they'd need to go 18-10 for a 64% winning percentage). They'd need to perform like a top top - Elite - team in hockey. And I don't think ANY of us thinks that the Islanders are currently an elite team - at best we're middle of the pack in talent. And that's with a low target of 90 points, when we'd probably need more.

This is why the playoff odds sites give us basically around 5% odds of making the playoffs - this is why someone came up with the historical note that no team at this point of the season under the current system has managed to make the playoffs from more than 5 points back. It's practically impossible.

The playoffs are a dream, one that every one of us would love, but is FAR from realistic. The Islanders cannot jeopardize their future to chase that dream. Keeping Nabokov jeopardize their future - it results in the Islanders losing a good valuable asset for nothing, something a small market team CANNOT do if it wants to get to the top and then STAY there.

Garth Snow, Please Trade Evgeni Nabokov. And do it soon.

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EDIT: A response to some very predictable comments:

Thats unfair to say…What I see is a totally relaxed goalie who has closed the holes in his game…

You know, I hear this sort of thing in baseball, hockey, basketball….basically every sport. We don’t like to believe that when a player’s performance dramatically improves, it’s not a real improvement. It’s our nature – human beings like to believe improvements are skill and that luck plays a minimal role in these competitions. Even the players on the team do this – of course they have good reason to believe this, as its their own future that is affected by their teammates’ performance.

But it plays a HUGE role. It’s why a player who’s 36 suddenly starts playing better than he has EVER played in his NHL Career for a full season. Guys, players don’t suddenly improve in the final stage of their career. It DOES NOT HAPPEN.

In addition, as pointed out above, we can see where the shoe is going to drop. No goalie in the NHL can maintain a SV% of .950 on the PK – and NO GOALIE HAS! Seriously, check out every season’s stats in the NHL website (http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20092ALLGAGALL&sort=powerPlaySavePctg&viewName=specialTeamSaves). Generally the top in the league is .919 or so on the PK in each season, and I’ll tell you right now that if you look at the top players on the PK SV% each year, they don’t repeat that feat the next year.

PKSV% numbers are extremely variable and prone to luck-based swings. That’s all Nabakov has had. It CANNOT last.

Jeopardizing their future by not adding an additional late third round pick?

The bottom line is you don’t just always trade someone just for the sake of trading someone…

You guys are misunderstanding how a small market team has to work. It’s GREAT to see the team with a top notch prospect system. We should be thrilled with this, especially because we’re the type of team that needs to get talent from within and cheaply.

But systems do not remain good though-out time just out of doing nothing. As guys are promoted, the system gets worse. Now if the promoted guys succeed, then you don’t feel this pain for a few years, as the team is good (If the promoted guys fail, well you’ll feel the pain immediately).

But once again, we are a small market team – or essentially are run like one due to the fact we take a persistent loss. A small market team has trouble hanging onto its own homegrown talent, who eventually WILL leave elsewhere. I know this is hard to believe living in NY – hell, the Isles just signed Tavares, Moulson, Grabner, and Nielsen! But these are quite solid exceptions – Tavares and Grabner were RFAs when they signed, meaning they had little leverage on the matter (And Tavares’ contract ends with him still at a decent age, meaning he could easily then leave for elsewhere) and Moulson has intervening circumstances (friend of Tavares). Nielsen is the only signing that is perhaps a surprise, but that’s mitigated by the fact that Nielsen is basically one of the two best defensive forwards in the game.*

*You’ll note Parenteau hasn’t signed yet. He might sign with the team, but his comments recently expressed an interest in possibly testing Free Agency. We might see that happen (or more likely, if the team can’t come to a deal with him, he’ll be traded)

It is not trading for trades sake, even if the return is just a 3rd rounder (I expect a higher return by the way). It is trading for the sake of maintaining a good team in the future. The Isles are likely to become good, due to their system, over the next few years. But if you don’t maintain the system, which you do by acquiring as many picks as possible, then it’ll just be a bump – the Isles will be good for a few years and then return to rebuilding. That’s unacceptable.

(Incidentally, if you’re all Mets fans, the Jose Reyes situation should be illustrative. It hurt the Mets a lot that they got basically nothing for him – but of course, unlike hockey, at least in baseball the Mets will get compensatory draft picks. The situation isn’t directly comparable as the Mets ARE able to spend some money, but it’s still a good example on this point.0

The fact that the playoffs are a "possibility" to us fans is insane. Now I know the hurdles we have to climb, and it’s doubtful we’ll climb them all. But if you trade Nabokov for anything less than a high-end
prospect or an NHL defensemen, you’re telling the fans you don’t believe in your own team.

My point is, if we want to keep this team on Long Island or in the New York area, we’re gonna need fans to show up

Trading a player hurts. But I’d doubt heavily (and i have no research on this) that it would affect attendance at this point. Islander attendance has sat at 11-12K for the last few years, and it’s there again this year. The team simply isn’t good enough for it to cause more casual fans to show up than they already do.

Moreover, Nabokov is NOT a player the Islanders have advertised or staked their claim to being a good view about. The Isles don’t advertise with him, they advertise with the young forwards. Those are the guys the people come to see, not Nabokov – the casual fan doesn’t really know much about who our goalie is (They’ve heard of him). Attendance won’t be hurt that much.

Moreover, you’re telling the fans that you’re not sure that THIS team can make the playoffs THIS YEAR. But if you, as expected, go on to make the playoffs next year, then this really won’t resonate in fans’ minds.