Lookout Landing

The Mariners' Five Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

2012-02-11T03:10:56Z

For those of you who read my post about the most extreme pitches hit for home runs during the 2011 season, this post is obviously inspired by that one. Earlier today I already put together and published the Mariners' version of the home run post. This is a joke about how the Mariners didn't hit any home runs. Here I want to examine something more Mariners-appropriate. I decided something more Mariners-appropriate would be bad swings.

Below you will find the five worst pitches at which a Mariners batter swung last year. For our purposes, the five worst pitches are the five pitches the furthest away from the center of the strike zone. I guess you could argue that these aren't actually the five worst swings, since there could've been just horrible swings at regular pitches. Maybe a guy fell down. But I would argue that the worst swings are the swings with the lowest chance of succeeding. Swings at pitches way out of the strike zone are probably the swings with the lowest chance of succeeding.

"This is pretty negative, Jeff," you might say. So were the 2011 Seattle Mariners. Did you watch the Mariners? Did you continue to watch the Mariners long after they faded away from relevance? I did. I watched them through to the bitter fuckin end. I'm entitled to treat their 2011 season however I want, and at the moment this is how I want.

You might assume that a countdown of the 2011 Mariners' five worst swings would be 100% Carlos Peguero. You'd be wrong. It's only 40% Carlos Peguero, which is twice as high as anybody else. It's 0% Miguel Olivo. You wouldn't believe how many times this made me re-check the data.

5

Ichiro, facing Jake McGee
July 31
42.0 inches from center of zone

Ichiro seems to have one of these every few games. Always has. Before, we laughed them off. "Haha, he's deceiving them into thinking he's mortal." "Next time I bet he'll get a hit on that!" This has long been a part of the Ichiro experience. But with the other bits of the Ichiro experience possibly changing, these don't stand to be nearly so cute going forward. "THAT'S A BALL" "HOLY SHIT HOW DO YOU STILL NOT KNOW THAT THAT IS A BALL, YOU ARE 38 YEARS OLD AND VERY EXPERIENCED"

4

Carlos Peguero, facing Trevor Cahill
July 5
43.1 inches from center of zone

The side view replay really drives home just how bad a swing this was. Not only did Peguero swing at a bad pitch. You see the ball? You see how it's angled up? That's because it already bounced. As shown in this screenshot, Peguero's bat had long since cleared the zone before the ball even arrived. So the eye was wrong, and the timing was wrong. I know those two things aren't independent of one another but still, wow, so wrong. When this replay began, Dave Sims thought it was a replay of an impressive foul ball Peguero had hit earlier. Instead it was a replay of Peguero striking out on a terrible pitch. That's the essence of Carlos Peguero right there.

3

Brendan Ryan, facing Jerome Williams
August 30
43.5 inches from center of zone

This is Brendan Ryan. Before Brendan Ryan, there was Josh Wilson. Before Josh Wilson, there was Jack Wilson. Before Jack Wilson, there was Ronny Cedeno. Before Ronny Cedeno, there was Yuniesky Betancourt. Before Yuniesky Betancourt, there was Mike Morse. Before Mike Morse, there was Wilson Valdez. Before Wilson Valdez, there was Jose Lopez. I don't remember the last Mariners shortstop I didn't expect to swing at this pitch.

2

Carlos Peguero, facing Cory Luebke
May 22
43.9 inches from center of zone

Right before this swing and miss, Peguero fouled off two or three hanging breaking balls smack dab in the zone. This was Peguero's 11th start. He would make 32 more starts. For the duration of the Mariners' fling with contention, their regular in left field was Carlos Peguero, and not Mike Carp. Carlos Peguero might be the weirdest decision I can remember the Mariners making. I don't just mean last year. What's been weirder?

1

Milton Bradley, facing Bobby Jenks
April 29
49.0 inches from center of zone

Checked swings are still swings, sometimes, and while it's kind of a bummer that the countdown has to end like this, we're talking 49 inches. The runner-up came in at 43.9 inches. This was so far and away the worst swing of the Mariners' season that I'd feel worse if I didn't include it. With this strikeout, Bradley extended a hitless streak to 20 at bats. A few days later, he was ejected and suspended for arguing a play in which he wasn't involved. A few days after that, he was ejected for arguing a called strike. A couple days after that, he was designated for assignment to make room for Carlos Peguero. And that's when things got ugly.

The Mariners' 26 worst swings were all swinging strikes. Their 27th-worst swing was a foul ball, hit by Carlos Peguero. Their 80th-worst swing was a groundout, by Carlos Peguero. Their 86th-worst swing was an infield single, by Ichiro. It came on a pitch 27.0 inches from the center of the strike zone, thrown by Fausto Carmona.

Of the Mariners' 100 worst swings, 13 belonged to Peguero, 24(!) belonged to Ichiro, and 11 belonged to Olivo. One belonged to Dustin Ackley. Zero belonged to Jack Cust.

Out Of Curiosity

2012-02-10T22:27:29Z

Jeff Cirillo was a Mariner in 2002 and 2003. The Mariners gave up some talent to get him, and also paid him good money. He posted a 64 OPS+. The three years before, he posted a 106 OPS+. Over the remainder of his career, he posted a 93 OPS+. His Baseball-Reference WAR was -0.3. His FanGraphs WAR was 0.9.

Scott Spiezio was a Mariner in 2004 and 2005. The Mariners paid him good money. He posted a 57 OPS+. The three years before, he posted a 106 OPS+. Over the remainder of his career, he posted a 108 OPS+. His Baseball-Reference WAR was -0.4. His FanGraphs WAR was -0.8.

Poll

As a Mariners fan, who do you dislike more?

2011 In Extreme Home Runs

2012-02-10T18:04:30Z

2011 In Extreme Home Runs

The other day I remarked that I just want to keep on writing about Anthony Vasquez. Guess who makes an appearance!

Friday Morning Music Thread

2012-02-10T17:58:45Z

There's a musician or band that everybody seems to hold in high esteem. You, however, can't stand him, her or it. Who is that musician or band? Why?

Reviving Chone Figgins

2012-02-09T23:23:07Z

Earlier Thursday, Ken Rosenthal published a column about how the Mariners ought to move Chone Figgins back to leadoff. This post is not intended as a direct response to what Rosenthal wrote, since I've heard the idea from a number of people, but there will necessarily be some overlap.

Chone Figgins has a bad contract. At first, it was not a bad contract. Or maybe it has always been a bad contract, but at first, we didn't believe that it was a bad contract. Figgins looked like a useful and valuable player to have. Then he became Chone Figgins as we understand him today. The Chone Figgins with a bad contract.

The Mariners are not alone in having a bad contract. Without checking, I'm going to assume that every team in baseball has at least one bad contract. Not all bad contracts are created the same, and Figgins' contract is worse than some other bad contracts. But it's also better than some other bad contracts. Hey there, Vernon Wells, won't you please stay a while? I would like to discuss your bad contract. Or as you call it, your super awesome unbelievably amazing contract.

Figgins, needless to say, has not turned out. When you have a player in Figgins' position, there are people who think the team should just cut its losses and eat the rest of the contract. There are other people who are okay with keeping the player around, but know that his best days are behind him. And there are still other people who insist on the possibility of a revival.

A player with a bad contract was given a big contract for a reason, right? Who's to say players can't rebound?

You and I probably figure that Chone Figgins is a lost cause, and that his greatest hope now is becoming a utility guy of moderate use. But something I've heard from several people, most recently Rosenthal, is that Figgins might bounce back if he's returned to the leadoff slot, where he hit with the Angels. Chone Figgins is a leadoff guy. The Mariners didn't let him hit leadoff. No wonder he's fallen flat!

It's an appealing concept, because the idea of Figgins being good again would change so many things. I guess it wouldn't change that many things, but it would change at least one thing, and presumably a handful of others. Chone Figgins coming back from the dead would be a miracle, just as anybody coming back from the dead would be a miracle.

But pardon me if I think that sounds a little too simplistic. A little too easy. To assert that Figgins could rebound as the leadoff guy is to assert that this has been a matter of psychology, not tools, and to assert that the difference between batting first and batting second is so great that it made Figgins sufficiently uncomfortable that he became a bad player.

There's no doubt in my mind that Figgins believes he could be better as leadoff. Figgins kind of has to believe that. He has to believe he can be fixed. And the last time he was good, he was leadoff. The two are connected in his mind. To Figgins, the thing that changed between Anaheim and Seattle is his spot in the batting order, so that must have a lot to do with his struggles.

But there are times when I believe in a player's explanation, and there are times when I don't. I want Figgins to be good. I want him to succeed as a Mariner, because of course I do. But I can't bring myself to buy this one.

Look at some of the lines in Rosenthal's article. It's said that batting second presents a different kind of challenge. It's said that batting second behind Ichiro presents a uniquely different kind of challenge. Perhaps Figgins has struggled because he's tried to adapt to that. But:

"It would be great to go back to leadoff and do that again," Figgins said. "If not, I have to change my mindset as a '2' hitter. I haven't really changed my mindset to be a '2' hitter. I've stuck with being a patient hitter."

Figgins hasn't changed his mindset after two years. He's "stuck with" being the hitter that he was. Except in terms of results. The results have been way worse.

So maybe it's sticking with that old approach that's gotten him in trouble? That seems to be the sentiment.

"Being in that spot and understanding that Ichiro is an aggressive player - that's what makes him great - I need to understand that when he is aggressive, I need to be aggressive, too," Figgins said. "A lot of times I get behind in the count too much."

First-pitch Strikes:

2009: 57%
2010: 58%
2011: 57%

Behind 0-1:

2009: 49%
2010: 50%
2011: 50%

Two-strike counts:

2009: 53%
2010: 51%
2011: 51%

In 2009, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins batted .333. After falling behind 0-1, he batted .259. The last two years, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins has batted .251. After falling behind 0-1, he's batted .212. This is about more than getting ahead and falling behind. This is about quality of contact.

Something else we can look at - what about when Figgins hasn't been hitting directly behind Ichiro? When leading off an inning in 2009, Figgins batted .275. When leading off an inning over the last two years, Figgins has batted .213. When leading off an inning, Figgins hasn't had to be in the mindset of a No. 2 hitter. It hasn't mattered. He's been bad.

I get uneasy about these things. On this matter, I have one opinion. Baseball people involved, and baseball people not involved, probably have another opinion. A lot of them probably do, at least. And I'm not so confident in myself that I think I know more about how baseball works than they do. If baseball people think that Chone Figgins could bounce back by being returned to the leadoff slot, we can't just ignore that outright.

But color me skeptical. I won't be mad if they try. There's probably not a lot of harm in trying, when Figgins plays. Again, one figures the Mariners aren't even getting within sniffing distance of the playoffs, making this a development and experiment season. Batting Figgins leadoff would be an experiment. But I've done a lot of experiments. Even the ones where I know how they're supposed to work out, they haven't always worked out. If Figgins' problem this whole time has been batting order position, we can learn from that, but chances are it's not that simple. It so infrequently is.

Seattle Mariners Podcast from Lookout Landing

2012-02-09T04:08:36Z

Here enclosed you will find the Seattle Mariners-related podcast that has previously been referenced in today's postings. A great flower awaits you if you look in the right valley.

Lookout Landing Podcast with Jeff and Matthew

iTunes link! RSS/XML link!

The Latest CAIRO 2012 Projections

2012-02-09T00:00:11Z

Hello there, baseball fans! Welcome to Lookout Landing. You are probably interested in predictions about the upcoming season. Sorry, you will not find that here. We don't really fancy predictions because the future is unknowable (for you) and so predictions are just excuses to engage in speculation and that makes us all blah really? We do have some projections though. Those are different. Please understand that those are different so that you might stop bitching about projections being wrong when it turns out they didn't exactly predict the future. You sound like a cretin when you do that.

Today's featured projection system is CAIRO. It's in all capital letters so I assume it is either an acronym or an initialism. I also don't consider those to be the same things. The official definitions are fuzzy but I believe we should have different terms for abbreviations that become words (radar, scuba) on their own and ones that are strictly letters (HTML, FBI). There are border cases though and something's weird about ones that become words but are still used in all caps like NATO. Compare that to Interpol which is a word now and also represents an organization but I feel comfortable writing Interpol in place of INTERPOL, but have to write NATO, not Nato. See how weird that looks? This is confusing. We need more terms.

So, CAIRO, whatever it stands for. Who cares? Here's the link to the latest crop. Looking over it I noticed that most of the good teams were good last year. That's not a big shock or even an aftershock, but it led me to making this graph.

Notice the best fit equation. Hey look, it's regression! That right there is regression. It takes the magnitude from 0 from last year and spits back a little over 75% of that number. Another way of putting that is saying the 2012 projected run differential is three parts actual 2011 run differential and one part league average (0). Regression! Catch the wave!

The above chart doesn't do anything to identify which are the good teams and which are the bad teams. We're (not us we, people we) all about categorizing things into groups of preferably two. People like things in only two possible categories because "black or white" and "either you're with us or you're against us" is just so much less mentally taxing than actual reality. I will indulge it this one time.

First come the haves, since of course they come first. There are 17 teams here with what I considered to be reasonable shots at a playoff berth. Please note that the CAIRO projections' playoff percentage totals include there being a second wild card this season which I don't believe will be in place in time. Therefore, these numbers are probably a bit inflated, but the ordinal ranking probably would not change much, if at all, were I to remove that column.

84.8% - Yankees
82.2% - Phillies
76.8% - Rangers
75.0% - Tigers
73.5% - Angels
70.5% - Cardinals
64.8% - Rays
64.4% - Red Sox
51.0% - Reds
49.5% - Giants
48.6% - Brewers
46.1% - Diamondbacks
45.8% - Nationals
42.4% - Indians
36.7% - Braves
27.9% - Rockies
22.3% - Marlins

Here are the remaining 13 teams. The terrible thirteen. I tried to come up with an alliterative and catchy moniker to saddle them with but I faltered in identifying an English word that's a synonym for bad and prefixed with a "th" sound. Any suggestions from linguists or other writers are welcome. It could even be a foreign word if appropriate enough. If you come up with one that I find delectable, I will bestow this...uh...free...pen on you. It's a wonderful pen. It has a clicky thing at the top and a good balance for twirling.

I arranged the teams in ascending order based on projected wins and broke the ties by using 2011's record just as the MLB draft order would do.
60 - Astros
67 - Twins
68 - Pirates
70 - Orioles
71 - Cubs
74 - Mariners
74 - Royals
74 - White Sox
75 - Mets
75 - Dodgers
76 - Padres
76 - Athletics
78 - Blue Jays

The Padres have the highest combined playoffs projections of any of those 13 and it's just 8.2%, which gives you a notion of the gap between these two groups. By the way, on average, American League teams had two more wins than their National League little brothers. Basically, that means the Mariners and the Padres are like the same team.

As noted in a thread below, the comments for this Philippe Valiquette YouTube video are about as...

2012-02-08T21:49:27Z

As noted in a thread below, the comments for this Philippe Valiquette YouTube video are about as good as comments get.