Matchsticks and Gasoline

Calgary/Ottawa Post-Game - Retro Jerseys now 5-0!

2010-03-12T08:45:26Z

Thursday night is beer-league hockey night in San Diego and therefore this game was scheduled to be viewed in full tape-delay mode. As I settled in to watch and spent the first five minutes fast forwarding past Mike Brophy and John Shannon killing time while the glass was being repaired, I had the first of two major revelations on the night. Namely, I was going to regret not taping more than three hours on the DVR! Sure enough, just as Daniel Alfredsson was apparently icing the result with a hooking penalty in the final two minutes, the screen went blank. Oops! I figured I didn't miss much anyway, given the result, but a look at the play by play of the game showed the obligatory Rene Bourque offensive zone penalty and a lot of "SHOT OTT ONGOAL". No sense the Flames making it easy on themselves.

The other revelation was revealed bit by bit throughout the whole game...

...I finally understand what it feels like to be a fan of the Colorado Avalanche this season. The Flames may have had the beautiful retro jerseys on, but they may as well have had the Avs colors. The Flames had everything the Avs have had this season. Great goaltending? Check. Tons of blocked shots? Check. Timely, quick strike goals on relatively few chances? Check. Spend most of the game swimming against the tide? Triple Check. Of the four losses the Flames have to show for their efforts against Colorado this season, there isn't one where the players and the fans weren't convinced they were the better team and lost because of the bounces. If I'm an Ottawa fan, I'm pulling my hair out after tonight's game.

Colorado fans have been pretty convinced that the stats like Corsi are not predictive in any way, and have noted this many times on this site and others. And who can blame them - the Avs continue to hold a playoff spot, and are certainly in a better position than the Flames. Certainly, you could watch the game tonight and say things like "Ottawa really didn't have great chances", "All those blocked shots just showed the Flames wanted it more", "A bend-but-don't-break defense and timely goals will win all the time". You could say those things, but you'd be wrong. Playing that way is like teetering on the knife's edge - it's worked for Colorado longer than we could have guessed, but Calgary can't afford that this time of the year. The only thing separating this game from the 4-0 loss to Minnesota last week was the early goal instead of the early deficit, and a better effort will be necessary Sunday in Vancouver.

OK, enough of that. It's still a win, and right now any way those come is welcome. There were certainly efforts worthy of celebration. For one, those blocked shots. Kent has shown many times in many ways that the Flames don't tend to emphasize blocked shots, and they rarely win that battle. Tonight, however, they were throwing themselves in front of everything. Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and Cory Sarich all had four or more and even Jarome Iginla had two blocks. Ironically, Robyn Regehr managed no blocks - he must have been too busy knocking guys down in front of the net to get in front of shots. Gotta love Reggie!

A special note of appreciation is reserved for Craig Conroy for being the only Flame with a positive Corsi tonight. It helped that his line was the only one with more offensive zone draws than defensive zone draws (only one more, mind you) and that they saw much more of Matt Cullen than Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher. However, Old Man Conroy has been full value since getting back in the lineup (give or take an egregious own-zone pass or two) and he may have had the set-up of the night had Niklas Hagman taken the time to put the puck in the net. His presence has pushed Mikael Backlund to the press box and makes one wonder why he just wasn't left in Abbotsford coming out of the Olympic break until they really needed him. But this is likely the last go-round for Conroy, and I'm glad he's making the most of it.

I still think "the energy line" plays too much (and yes, I dislike that name). With two minutes left in a 2-0 game, I really don't need to see Eric Nystrom, Curtis Glencross and Jamal Mayers out there against Ottawa's big guns, and icing it no less. However, they did draw the Alfredsson penalty and more importantly, they did score the first goal. It's always a bit of a shock to see a tough guy rifle such a nice shot, but it's easy to forget these guys are all pretty damn talented and Mayers made the most of his opportunity.

Speaking of ice time, it's a little surprising to see the disparity of even strength ice time tonight amongst the forwards. Iggy, Bourque and Matt Stajan had over 16 minutes at EV and the rest of the forwards were within shouting distance of 10 minutes or less. The number of penalty kills were a factor, since the Iggy line doesn't kill penalties. However, coach Sutter clearly made a decision to ride the hot line tonight. Going forward, I believe this will balance out a bit, because Daymond Langkow and Christopher Higgins continue to show they're just as valuable as the first line. (Ales Kotalik continues to show some talent but also that he should be down one line on the depth chart).

Another win and the Flames now need 9 wins in 15 remaining games to hit the "magic" 95 point barrier. The Nashville-San Jose result was pleasing just as the Detroit and Colorado wins were not. The Flames can't rest now, with the Vancouver-Detroit back to backs coming up. Time to file this one away.

Flames vs. Senators Game Thread

2010-03-12T00:19:26Z

Fred Chartrand - AP

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Pengrowth Saddledome

7:30 PM MT

Opposition: Silver Seven

TV: Sportsnet West

Tuesday's third period was one of those moments where, if a person was inclined to think that the Flames actually have something, the pieces started to look like they might just be fitting. Even if Detroit isn't the juggernaut of recent past, they're still a good team playing at home, and the Flames strangled them. After the Bourque game-winner with 12:44 remaining, Detroit had one SOG. One. None in the last 8:11. At the Joe. Even if those numbers occurred against this year's Oilers at the Dome they would be impressive, but given the stakes involved, that was a signature effort.

And with that performance, the team has vaulted all the way to...a completely tenuous hold on 8th place. That's really the point that has to be reinforced here. Great game and all that, but if Calgary wants to be more than some also-ran outfit, that type of play has to be the norm for the duration. Tonight, they'll attempt to prolong this era of good feeling against a club that has hopes of their own for a run in the second season.

The first line finally appears to be a collection worthy of the name. As Kent noted when he posted the scoring chances, Bourque, Stajan and Iginla held their own against Pavel Datsyuk's line. That's not to be sneezed at, since that trio for the Wings is a difficult proposition to manage under normal circumstances, so kudos. They had Detroit's best on the run in the third, and that smart bit of coaching by Sutter to get them on the ice out of rotation caught the Wings, with Bourque's goal resulting from an over-matched Darren Helm being stuck in a situation he couldn't handle. Plenty of people picked up on that moment as a game key, and it surely was an obvious one.

The thing that no one is talking about is the manner that Daymond Langkow and his mates rendered Henrik Zetterberg's line largely impotent. The other star Detroit center was +2/-5 in terms of EV scoring chances, with most of his ice time matched against the Flames' second unit. Langkow and the hard-luck Christopher Higgins each scored as well, so it was a night well spent by that trio. As I mentioned Tuesday, Langkow and that line might not throw big scoring numbers around, but they do seem to have the appearance of a group that can suppress the offence of the opposition's skill players.

The Flames' bottom end got in on that act, allowing almost nothing at all to Detroit's lower orders. Craig Conroy did have a couple of absolutely egregious passes to the opposition, but that was mixed in with a night of general goodness, and Niklas Hagman looked like he should against bottom-sixers, as in a notch above them.

The defence managed as well, with the dominance of the forwards permitting them a pretty comfortable third period. Steve Staios has been, er , high event, at least to this point. One can only hope that it's just over-exuberance in his new surroundings. He and Jay Bouwmeester saw the Datsyuk line quite a bit, which allowed Regehr and White to boss their minutes efficiently. Those two guys can likely play second minutes well enough, so maybe it's Firewagon Steve and JB against the toughs, at least for now.

Miikka Kiprusoff was good through two periods, and well-rested in the third, so he'll go tonight. His fine save off Holmstrom to start the third left the Flames in range, and they rewarded the Finn by keeping the puck at the other end of the rink thereafter. I'm not sure when Toskala goes again. The B2B coming up would normally be a good spot, but against Vancouver and Detroit? Hmm.

The Senators had the measure of Calgary a month ago, winning 3-2 on a Jason Spezza goal late in the second. Ottawa was in the midst of a lengthy run at that time, although they've returned to earth a bit since, and they were certainly hindered by a nasty bug that left them in such a bad way that they couldn't even beat the Maple Leafs over the weekend. They were good enough to beat the AHL types up Highway 2 on Tuesday 4-1, so it does appear they're getting over the flu. The Sens weren't ready to go to the playoffs unbolstered, adding Matt Cullen and Andy Sutton to their line-up, and the Cullen move does give them proper depth down the middle with Spezza, Fisher and Kelly joining the ex-Cane in a nice set of four. They'll miss Filip Kuba, who is out day to day on the backline, but even if he was healthy, Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips would likely match with the Iginla line. Brian Elliot will start in goal.

The Sens appear to run P v P, which suggests that Matt Stajan will need to be solid again, but with last change I do wonder if Langkow might not get that job this evening, leaving Iggy's line to go against Mike Fisher. The Senators have out-shot their opposition fairly handily 5 v 5 this season, so the fact that they don't out-score them is likely down to meh goaltending. Elliot is sporting a .907 EVSV%. He does seem to stop pucks on the PK, and Ottawa has benefited from that to post a good PK%. Their PP is the part of the game where Kuba's absence will show most, with the Sens near the bottom of the league by percentage. One final note I'd make is that Ottawa has built their good overall record on the back of smacking teams at Scotiabank Place. They've done as well away as the Flames have done at home, so it should be a match of equals in that regard, I suppose. The game in Kanata was one where the Flames appeared to run out of energy and ideas as it progressed, so if Tuesday is really the new normal, that shouldn't be an issue tonight.

Game time is 7:30 MT on Sportsnet West.

Ryan Howse Continues His Hot Season

2010-03-11T21:22:37Z

Ryan Howse Continues His Hot Season

With 5 goals in his last 2 games, Howse now has 46 on the season, good for 3rd in the league behind Jordan Eberle and Kyle Beach - both of whom are older, former first round draft picks.

Cgy/Det Post Game - A Big One That Didn't Get Away

2010-03-10T04:11:59Z

More photos » Paul Sancya - AP

Through two periods, this sure appeared to be another in a long line of frustrating Flames games this year. Playing a very good team with tough PvP matchups, the Flames were losing the top 6 battles, winning the bottom 6 battles, taking too many penalties, not giving up a ton of great chances but not generating many. And they were down a goal. And 2-16-3 on the year when trailing after two. And playing a team that was 21-1-4 leading after two. And on the road.

On the other hand, the Craig Conroy - David Moss - Niklas Hagman line had a lot of jump and was dominating the lesser lights for Detroit (I'm looking squarely at you, Sparklepants) and you just had a feeling they'd be rewarded in the 3rd period for their efforts. Sure, it was hard watching Jarome Iginla, Matt Stajan and Rene Bourque in tough and generating next to nothing for two periods - incidentally, is Pavel Datsyuk not one of the top three players in the league, or is it just the Flames he looks so damn good against - but Conroy et al was about to break out!

And sure enough - Conroy et al continued to push the puck in the right direction and...continued not to score. So much for that theory. But real life has a way of blowing theory out of the water. Everyone on the team started going one-way (the good way) in the third period, including the big guns, and the whole team reaped the reward.

Six minutes into the period, the trio of Iggy, Stajan and Bourque managed to get onto the ice mid-shift against two defencemen not named Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski (in this case, Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall) and a mix of forwards. One nice blue-line to blue-line pass by Steve Staios later, the Flames had a mini three on two which ended up on Iggy's stick and in the net. (In a sweet bit of irony, the forward late to the play was Datsyuk - the irony is that he wasn't quite in position to make a play because he'd just come on the ice for another forward who'd made a lazy slow change as the puck moved up ice - yes, Todd Bertuzzi just continues to give and give!).

Less than a minute later, after a 4th line shift was ended abruptly by Lidstrom knocking the stick out of Eric Nystrom's hands, the Stajan line came right back on and got the puck in deep again. This pressure led to the winning goal, and the whole sequence was a good example of how forward matchups against the other team's forwards are as important (or more important) than matching up defencemen against the other team's forwards. Detroit had also managed to change four of their five skaters - Lidstrom, Rafalski, Johan Franzen and Tomas Holmstrom. But, Darren Helm was stuck out there instead of Datsyuk and he was a step behind the entire shift. Including at the end of the shift when he was the first to fish the puck out of the net after Bourque's goal!

Clearly, Datsyuk is the defensive conscience of that group and it was to the Flame's credit that they took advantage of his absence. Charlie Simmer mentioned at least twice in the replay of the goal that the Flames made the quick change back to Iggy's line to get away from Lidstrom and how well it worked. Never mind that the number 5 on the back Lidstrom's jersey took up half the screen while he was talking. Announcers tend to fixate on the importance of getting the shutdown defense against the top line, but this goal was as good an indication as any how that is a short sighted fixation.

It's also to the coaching staff's credit that Calgary avoided "The Shell" once they took the lead. The majority of the shots, faceoffs, and hits from the time of Bourque's goal to the Higgins goal (the what? let me check that again...yep, it definitely says Goal, Chris Higgins...) - anyway, the majority of events took place in the Red Wing zone. Also, Sutter leaned on the top three lines nearly exclusively the last 13 minutes - the last shift Jamal Mayers took is the one that included the Staios hooking penalty, and that's the kind of ice time distribution in a one goal game that I can get behind.

Robert ended his game thread preamble with the following:

As I've mentioned, this is the type of contest that might well give us a proper feel for where this Flames' season is headed.

Considering the opposition and the location of the game, this was the Flames' best effort since before the long losing streak. I'd love to feel that this is an indication the Flames' season is headed to the postseason, but we've been burned too many times to feel that. Nevertheless, it's two big points in a season where the Flames will need all they can get and it gets the blood pumping already for the Thursday home tilt with Ottawa. As fans, that's all we can ask.

Random Notes: Three games into Steve Staios' Flames career, he's 3-0. Which shows just how great a trade that was to acquire him! Honestly, I'm still not sure he's better than Adam Pardy (his poor positioning exemplified when he was forced to take a penalty mid-third period has been far too common) and his current top-4 defenceman role is cause for concern going forward. But he is 3-0!...At least two times I saw Jay Bouwmeester jumping up on the play to provide offense, which is two more times than in a typical game. Whether this lack of offensive impulse is a result of coaching or his own inhibitions I don't know. But, to be as valuable as I think he can be, he needs to join the rush more often...Congratulations Mr. Higgins, eventually we'll all remember your first Flame goal as a critical shorthanded effort (never mind the empty net). Nice to see the big smiles all around on the bench after that one.

My God, Damien. My God.

2010-03-09T23:47:31Z

My God, Damien. My God.

Toronto Star columnist and TSN Tradecentre expert Damien Cox believes the time has come in which Dion Phaneuf becomes the Captain of the Leafs. If he could grow a mustache, hit the general vicinity of the net, actually fight, and be a pillar in the community, the similarities between Dion and Wendel Clark would be uncanny.

Flames vs. Red Wings Game Thread

2010-03-09T21:49:06Z

Carlos Osorio - AP

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Joe Louis Arena

5 PM MT

Opposition: Winging It In Motown

TV: Sportsnet

Games against the Winged Wheel are always the sort that capture my attention. That organization has been, for whatever I may think of some parts of their on-line fanbase from time to time, the league's benchmark since the mid-90's. Earlier in the year, injuries and the off-season culling caused by cap issues left them looking less than themselves, but the last few weeks have seen their health improve, and their post-season chances are looking rosier as well.

Tonight, the Flames head to the Motor City with an opportunity at hand to vault over the Red Menace and into a temporary perch in the top eight. It promises to be the most thorough examination to date of the GM's roster make-over, since, as I mentioned yesterday, good Western Conference clubs are still the relevant challenge Calgary has to meet if they plan on hockey past April 10th.

The last time through Motown presented the sort of game that would have rightfully driven a Wings fan a bit nuts. They badly out-played the Flames for about 2 1/2 periods, before the 3-0 goal ended their push. On that night, the Flames chose Daymond Langkow to face Pavel Datsyuk, while leaving Jarome Iginla to battle Henrik Zetterberg et al. That sort of match-up may well occur again tonight, with the Russian center having the superior wingers in Franzen and Holmstrom. If Langkow gets a shut down role, that just leaves Zetterberg against Bourque-Stajan-Iginla. Nice. Bourque and Iginla looked pretty solid in St. Paul, so if Matt Stajan is going to survive this night not looking like a complete chump, his wingers will likely have to carry the mail.

Kent wrote his amicus brief on behalf of Langkow earlier today, and I suspect that as we go through the rest of the year, examining his performance by points scored will likely be an unsatisfying measure. He's very likely to be stuck playing the other team's skill players for the duration, and he'll have to do it from some lousy spots on the ice. He and Christopher Higgins look up to the task so far, but tonight they and erstwhile cohort Ales Kotalik will be put under the microscope. No matter which of the Flames' top lines matches with the top two Wings' lines, we'll get some answers about how much better suited Calgary is to play the better teams in the conference.

Craig Conroy had a tough afternoon in Minnesota shaking off the rust, and that can't last tonight. He'll very likely see a bit of Valteri Filppula this evening, so he David Moss and Niklas Hagman will need to be sharp. Filppula and ol' Sparklepants do occasionally leak shots against though, which could mean good things if Hagman can locate his shooting eye. Normally that would leave Curtis Glencross, Eric Nystrom and Jamal Mayers in a good place relative to match-ups, but the Wings will have Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves against them, leaving a tougher challenge than they've faced thus far. Like I said, this night is a proper exam.

The Flames' restructured backline was decent enough versus the Wild, with Giordano and Sarich getting a surprising ratio of D zone starts. Tonight does present some issues, and given the size of Holmstrom and Franzen, I wonder if Bouwmeester and Staios will draw that assignment. Ian White seems undersized for that sort of duty, and Zetterberg-Williams-Cleary aren't quite as physically dominant. Again, interesting stuff.

After a day to watch his buddy at work, Miikka Kiprusoff will return to the net. The last time these teams met, he was the difference maker, stopping 40 shots en route to a shut-out. He'll very likely need to be in that sort of form again, especially early on if Detroit unloads their standard first period blitz.

The Wings' season, as I mentioned up top, seems to be a reflection of some injury and roster challenges, but they've been a bit unlucky in the shooting percentage arena as well. Despite out-shooting their opposition, they've been out-scored 5 v 5. Shooting 7% will do that to a team, and that percentage rates only behind Boston league wide. One spot where the Red Wings have clearly taken a step back is in 5 v 5 shot prevention, going from 27.1 SA/60 last season to 29.6 this year. That has them on track to give up about 200 more shots for the season 5 v 5, so the fact that Jimmy Howard has been pretty solid this season hasn't given them much of a goals against boost. Again, injuries and a slight slide in play by Niklas Lidstrom are the likely culprits for the regression in shot suppression.

Detroit's mostly healthy now, though, and that's what makes this game such an intriguing contest. For all their problems earlier in the year, the Red Wings still might be the equal of any team in the West when they sport a full roster, and winning in Chicago Sunday while dropping a 5 spot on the Hawks isn't applesauce. As long as Mike Babcock keeps future Hall of Famer™ Chris Osgood stapled to the bench, they'll be a handful for any team, and that certainly goes for the Flames. Kiprusoff playing well and a night not spent in the box are the likely tickets to having a shot at winning this one. Detroit usually gets an early jump on teams at the Joe, and a few penalties normally just seem to add to the cascade effect. As I've mentioned, this is the type of contest that might well give us a proper feel for where this Flames' season is headed.

Lines from the Herald:

Bourque-Stajan-Iginla

Higgins-Langkow-Kotalik

Hagman-Conroy-Moss

Glencross-Nystrom-Mayers

From Helene St. James at the Freep:

Franzen-Datsyuk-Holmstrom

Cleary-Zetterberg-Williams

Miller-Filppula-Bertuzzi

Draper-Helm-Eaves

Game time is 5 MT on Sportsnet West.

The Deeper Implications of the Boyd Trade

2010-03-09T20:50:45Z

More photos » Jeff McIntosh - AP

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There's been some sniping around the Boyd trade both here and elsewhere and the argument being raised has conjured memories of another spat that erupted around somewhat similar circumstances almost three years ago. I think the comparison will help explain why I and others like Robert and RO don't like the deal.

In the summer of 2007, Darryl Sutter had 7 NHL defensemen signed:

Sutter added Hale at the previous trade deadline, traded for Aucoin and signed Eriksson and Sarich in the off-season. That left precious little room for a sophomore defender named Mark Giordano; a guy who at 24 had put up decent stats in the AHL, but hadn't really established himself in the big leagues yet. Sutter stuffed the roster full of more established players and then low-balled Gio in his RFA negotiations. Giordano balked at the two-way offer and fled to Russia.

The reaction in Flamesland was split. Guys like myself and Matt Fenwick saw it as an obvious misstep. A larger portion of the fanship looked at the roster, looked at Giordano and shrugged "not a big deal". A comment at Mirtle's old place captures the spirit of majority reaction at the time: Except that Giordano can't play defense and gets burned 1-on-1. Can someone say Andy Delmore??? This is not a significant loss.

I tried to make the point then that signing and acquiring NHL players in a cap environment is like making a series of bets: basically, you want each guy to be a better than average bet to perform at or above the level of his cap hit. To that end, the mistake as I saw it with the Gio negotiations then is the same mistake I see with the Boyd trade now:

Look, Giordano isn't a big-time difference maker in the overall scheme of things. He is, however, a viable asset the Flames have converted from an undrafted defenseman. He's also the type of player that is a good bet to outperform his next contract (unlike, say, Warrener or Eriksson) and you can never have enough of those guys on a capped roster.

The issue isn't necessarily how Boyd fits into the roster currently, nor whether he'd be any kind of difference maker in the short term. Look at the line-up of defenders Sutter chose over Giordano 3 years ago. Consider that of those ostensibly superior options at the time, one has retired (Warrener), one is an AHLer (Eriksson), one is a 7th defender (Hale) and one is a guy who probably has less value to the org than Giordano does currently (Sarich). Now, let's look at some of the forwards Daz decided to keep instead of Boyd this year:

Chris Higgins

Project the line-up three years down the road, when Boyd will be about 26 years old. How many of these guys will be

a.) Better than Boyd?

b.) Still with the Flames?

c.) Still in the NHL?

Boyd's development path isn't certain, so "A" is the most contentious question. However, guys who are 23, have good results in lower leagues and are still finding their legs are the types of players organizations should be betting on, particularly when their contract demands and resultant cap hits would be around league minimum (thereby almost completely eliminating any risk). If the Flames kept Boyd and he failed to take single step forward, then his salary is at replacement level and it's not an issue. However, the potential reward if he does make strides is significant and there's an object lesson of that fact leading the Flames blueline in goals this year.

Again, the issue isn't Boyd's current utility to the club, which is admittedly small. It's the manner of asset management - of placing smart, low risk bets with potential high rewards - that I call into question here. Sutter got lucky with Giordano. We'll have to wait to see to what degree he screwed up with Boyd.

In Defense of Daymond Langkow

2010-03-09T18:16:36Z

In Defense of Daymond Langkow

This one's for you, RO.

March 8 News and Notes

2010-03-09T01:22:50Z

More photos » David Zalubowski - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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With the Olympics put to bed, the NHL got back to business last week, and the round-up returns as well. This week, the Flames make a few moves, then manage a couple of wins, Abbotsford's husk of a lineup prepares for some national TV exposure, and Matt Cooke does what Matt Cooke does.

Flames:

First, overdue congratulations to Jarome Iginla for winning the second gold medal of his career. His nice board play and pass to Crosby for the winner will be on highlight reels for ever. As well, congrats to the two Finns, and good on Kipper for bouncing back after that dreadful exhibition versus the Americans. He and Niklas Hagman both had pretty good Games in the big scheme of things.

I've said my piece about the deals that the team made on Wednesday, so, like the team, I'm moving on. The Flames got back to NHL competition after the deadline had passed, and after an indifferent outing versus the Wild, the club managed a couple of wins in which actual multiples of goals occurred. The handiwork of the new additions to the roster has been rather mixed. Vesa Toskala's win yesterday had a whiff of the fortunate about it, and Steve Staios has been on the bad side of the numbers in his first two outings.

Nevertheless, the Flames were likely due for a couple of wins where they didn't overrun a team. I suspect that tomorrow's match with the Red Wings might be a pretty good measure of the new forward alignments and whether the revamped D is good enough to hang with a solid team. The Flames haven't played a team above them in the Western Conference standings since the Phaneuf trade, and I still consider those clubs a truer test than the two decent Eastern teams they've faced.

Kipper 5 v 5: DAL 1-14, ANA 1-25, MIN 4-21, NJ 2-20. Season total 82-1201, SV .932. There were hints that Kiprusoff had mentioned that he was feeling the effects of a difficult schedule, as Jean Lefebvre pointed out yesterday at Flames Nation. The goaltending situation is a tricky bit of business for Brent Sutter to manage. His instinct, as any sane person's would be, is very likely to ride Kipper until the post-season chances of the team are settled. That said, if his lead guy is running out of gas, that bodes ill for the team, so hopefully the club can get three or four more outings from Toskala where they get a decent result.

Not-yet-Flames:

The Heat used their terrific Olympic road trip to vault themselves into a playoff spot, sitting third in the division after garnering three points over the weekend against the Worcester Sharks. The Heat have given David Shantz a look in net the last few weeks, as Leland Irving languishes on the Island. The Flames don't really need a number one goalie today, but Irving's step back this season must have the organization questioning the future after Kipper moves on, no matter how cheap goalies are to acquire at the moment.

One interesting bit of news involving the Flames' AHL affiliate was the announcement during the Olympics that they would feature in CBC's Salute the Troops coverage on March 21st. The Heat will face the Toronto Marlies at 11 AM MT on the national network. It's a shame that the team is as beat up as they are, with seven regulars injured, including Matt Pelech and John Negrin. Darryl Sutter noted in his post-deadline comments that Pelech was done for the year and Negrin was out until mid-April. Unfortunate, really. The two were progressing to the point where a roster spot next year was within reach, but injuries to young players can derail careers, even when they don't appear that serious on the face of it.

Derek Zona was kind enough to alert me last week of a Hockey's Futures review article on Finnish goalie prospects, with the Flames' Joni Ortio featuring. The piece notes that he may well spend next season in Speedy Creek, and unless he can vault into a full time job in the SM-Liiga, that's likely a good spot for him to continue his development. As a potential Flame, he might as well begin getting used to lengthy travel regimens as soon as possible.

It's also a good time for a brief note on how some of the club's junior prospects on this side of the pond are progressing. Ryan Howse is getting some love for his season's work in Chilliwack, as he's been a major contributor to the Bruins' capture of a play-off spot. Unless Chilliwack can spring a significant upset in the first round, his year might well finish with the nearby Heat. His fellow WHLer Mitch Wahl has moved into the league's upper echelon with an excellent second half, and with Spokane fighting for home ice in the opening round, his appearance in the AHL might be delayed until April or next September. Lance Bouma's Vancouver Giants are second in the Western Conference, which means his move down the Trans-Canada also might have to wait for a summer. Out east, Greg Nemisz and T.J. Brodie are also playing well at the OHL level, with Windsor likely to win their conference, and Barrie ending as runaway winners in the Eastern Conference, as well as finishing first overall. Barring significant upsets in the OHL playoffs, they'll also have to wait until September to make their pro debuts.

Elsewhere:

The furor over head shots got a bit of fresh fuel yesterday with Matt Cooke's hit on the Bruins' Marc Savard. The league's GMs are currently slumming it in Boca, with the head shot topic at the forefront of the agenda. Greg Wyshynski at Puck Daddy suggests an incrementalist approach banning blind side hits to the head. If you've been about the Twitter-verse this afternoon, you'll know there's been a fair bit of back and forth on the matter. Tim Campbell of the Winnipeg Free Press also produced a series of articles on the subject over the last few days that are worth a look.

As for my take on the matter, I'll start with what I said after the Phaneuf hit on Kyle Okposo this fall;

When I see what happened Thursday, I'm always mindful of the effect that brain injuries, even of the "mild" variety, can have on someone. If that makes me insufficiently bloodthirsty, so be it. It's simply that a case of unfortunate life experience has made me unwilling to immediately join the hallelujah chorus.

I don't feel any differently today than I did when I wrote that last September. At some point the league and players will have to decide if they're genuinely interested in workplace safety. That means behavior modification from the players, along with rule, equipment and building changes, the lot of it. From a financial and competitive POV, if the Bruins miss the playoffs, Savard's absence may well have indirectly cost the team a few million dollars of potential revenue. I suspect that there's enough momentum at this point to cause some sort of modification of the rules, and we'll see if Wysh's idea is a reflection of the league's zeitgeist.

The afterglow of the Olympics has more than a few folks wondering why the league hasn't chosen to embrace a return trip to Sochi in 2014. The HNIC Hotstove covered this, and Stephen Brunt openly asks if the league needs a different commissioner to change the mindset of the owners. I understand the concept of the "great man" theory, having spent my twenties engaged in the leisurely pursuit of a B.A., but Gary Bettman is, at the core of it, an employee. When the league's owners decide the Olympics are an opportunity they want to pursue rather than a burden, Gary Bettman will be charged with making some sort of deal, and he'll do so. His "feelings" about the matter are nothing more than the carefully distilled opinions of his bosses, the end.

Actual Hockey-related activities:

One of the clubs chasing the Flames and Red Wings is Dallas, but the Stars seem to be falling off the pace. They're the only team in the West with a streak of more than two games, and it's a three gamer of the losing variety. As I type this, they're losing 1-0 in D.C., and despite Marc Crawford's calm tone, his team is in tough. Kari Lehtonen looked about as one might expect a rusty goalie to look over the weekend, surrending a six-spot to the Penguins, and there's beginning to be some separation between Dallas and the clubs they need to catch. I wonder if they might not be thinking overhaul this summer. They have a nice group of young forwards, but that D and goaltending group isn't nearly good enough.

The Coyotes were, IMO, the big winners at the deadline, with the addition of Wojtek Wolski a significant step taken in improving the club. He was the best player acquired by any team Wednesday, and beyond this season's improbable run will provide another good forward to add to players like Martin Hanzal for the future. Peter Mueller may well find his form in Colorado, but it seems to me like the Avalanche simply bailed out on a guy headed for RFA status instead of paying him. For Wolski's part, he seems quite content in the desert, and scoring late to beat his old club right after the deadline was a very nice way to ingratiate himself. As I said in comments when the first rumblings of this deal first came down, he, Paul Stastny and Craig Anderson were the only players on the Avalanche that didn't look like they were doing it with mirrors.

That's all for this week. As always, if there's anything that's caught your eye, the comments are open.

Brent Sutter Admits That Backlund Needs Sheltering

2010-03-09T00:10:07Z

Brent Sutter Admits That Backlund Needs Sheltering

What more can I say? Backlund hurts the team, Conroy and Boyd should have been above him on the depth chart. Open and fucking shut.

Flames Schedule Analysis

2010-03-08T18:02:00Z

Flames Schedule Analysis

I take a look at Calgary's stretch drive. "Not going to be easy" might be an understatement.

Winning Games

2010-03-08T17:16:00Z

A discussion about winning games is long overdue.

There is no math here, no numbers, and barely a cursory mention of statistics. The fights between "stats guys" and "other fans" are illusory. The real question is whether one is willing to take a measured approach to reality, i.e. figure out what's actually happening on the ice.

A hockey team wins the Stanley Cup by winning more games than it loses. Sixteen in the playoffs, and usually more than 41 games in the regular season. The road to the Cup is paved with wins.

A hockey team wins games by scoring more goals than the opposition. You definitely want to score more goals than you allow in any one game. Generally speaking you would also like to score more goals than you allow over the course of a season. Maybe there is something to be said about timely goals, or scoring enough goals to win in close games while simultaneously getting blown out in games that you were going to lose anyway. On the other hand, it probably doesn't matter. The road to wins is paved with goals.

How does a hockey team score goals?

The coach's perspective

Scoring more goals than you give up is a hard thing to do in the NHL. Some players are obviously better at it than others. Naturally, as a coach, you want to limit the ability of your opponents to outscore you. Generally speaking the players you are most concerned about are your opponent's best. Generally speaking the tools you want to deploy the most are your best.

Conversely, a coach is always concerned about his weakest players, the ones at the bottom of his depth charts. These players are the most terrible at outscoring, and he must hide them from quality. The blade cuts both ways however; a savvy coach salivates at the thought of dominating the dregs of his opposition.

Most bench management tactics arise from these simple notions. Power-vs.-power, building the gameplan around your gifted offensive forward, shift after PP, icing management, etc. all stem from coaches trying to gain a material advantage through matches or mismatches. Usually the coaches are very concerned about who is on the ice for the other team, but considerations about how far along the opposition is in their shift (the notion of tired legs) as well as which zone the puck is in (the notion of territory) are also important.

That's the bulk of the coach's contribution to outscoring*. Managing his players, not putting them in positions to succeed individually but in positions for the team to succeed as a whole. And it matters, the distribution of ice time is not at all even. Some players will, on the whole, get ice time that is harder to outscore in. Other players will, on the whole, get ice time that is easier to outscore in. Obviously their results vis-à-vis outscoring will be different, how could it not?

* The notion of "systems" gets a lot of press but there is not much innovation between coaches to be honest. On the other hand, the chasm between the best and worst hockey players is wide enough that a coach that doesn't work his matchups properly is actively hurting his team.

The player's perspective

The player is the coach's greatest and only tool for outscoring. Thus, the player must outscore. However, scoring goals does not just... happen. There is a process.

Players have skills. We can name several for skaters - strength, speed, puck-handling ability, vision, anticipation, shooting. For goalies, similarly, except add twitch reflexes and memory.

Ultimately as a hockey player you want these skills to translate into goal scoring so you want to be in a position such that you can shoot the puck into the net without the goalie being able to make the save. So we speak in the language of scoring chances. Gaining access, with the puck, to the "scoring area" as it is often called - the area between the faceoff dots and the posts up to the hash marks or maybe a bit farther out. In this area you can shoot the puck and if you make a good shot the goalie physically doesn't have time to react. Guess right and you look like a hero. Guess wrong and you look like a tit.

Everything that hockey players do is related to scoring chances. Face-offs, puck battles, take away passing and shooting lanes, create passing and shooting lanes, reverses, breakout passes, gaining the line, holding the line, cycles, etc. etc. ad nauseam. These are all in the name of gaining access and limiting your opponent's access to the scoring area. The notion of territorial advantage comes up a lot and it's easy to see why - out-accessing your opponent is easier to do if you have control of the puck in the offensive zone more often.

It's a pretty obvious truth that some skaters are more capable than others of finishing their chances. As well it's an obvious truth that some goalies are more capable than others of stopping opposing chances. But volume of chances is a huge driver of success, perhaps the principle driver over long time frames given the narrower spread of finishing/saving talent that exists now.

Role matters too. Coaches give out ice-time to youth like candy, it's always sweet. And the exact reverse for veterans. Outchancing is harder to do when you are facing good players that are better at denying you access to the scoring area. Similarly if you're always counted on to retrieve the puck from your zone, well chances are you'll spend more time watching it go to the scoring area (on-a-stick-off-a-stick-in-your-net) than you'd like. And you're not going to have as easy a time going to the scoring area yourself, what with it being 175 feet down the ice with 2-5 opposition players in the way. And plus you'll be tired after spending 25 to 30 seconds regaining possession of the puck, you're only human after all.

If your role dictates that you're going to have a harder time outchancing, then you'll surely have a harder time outscoring. You might have a harder time scoring, period. And on top of that, luck has the final say (see below). Doesn't mean you're not helping your team win, after all someone has to play the tough minutes and nobody has the goods on Lady Luck. This is the nightmare scenario for hockey players on a Canadian team. This is how local sports personalities start suggesting that you get demoted to a lesser role (who will play the tough minutes then?) or traded for magic beans.

A measured approach to reality

There are two keywords here: "measured" and "reality". Too often the focus is on "measured". The label of "stats guys" is a bit unfair given that the casual fan can quote reams of stats for his or her favourite players and teams. The term "advanced stats" is a misnomer; there's nothing advanced about shots, scoring chances, face-offs and time on ice. These are basic and essential elements of the game.

Statistics aren't the end-all or be-all, but reality is. Reality dictates that the game is played a certain way on the ice. We develop some numerical measures of how the game is played on the ice. We call these "statistics" but they are really just rink-side mirrors, reflections of how individual skills are translated into team wins. Most "numbers guys" are actually "reality guys".

A note on Luck

It's a bitch.

When we talk about winning games, we talk about a series of processes here, translating individual skills into wins and ultimately Stanley Cups. And at each process luck has a say.

Skills -> Scoring Chances -> Goals -> Wins -> Stanleys

At every step luck takes away sustainability and predictive value. The higher you get the more you lose to luck. The casual fan's focus is on Goals, Wins, and Stanleys (and sadly, not in that order). Which is fine. But when Stanleys are used over Scoring Chances as a reflection of Skills, that's when you get into trouble.

Flames/Wild Post Game - And the Oscar Goes To...

2010-03-08T06:08:32Z

More photos » Tom Olmscheid - AP

"See what happens when you pass, Jarome? Shoot next time!"

The Flames and Wild were kind enough to schedule an afternoon game to make sure that their tilt wouldn't interfere with Hollywood's grandest night and deny us all a chance to see that Steve Martin is still alive. In that vein, the envelope, please...

Best Actor in a Supporting Role - I'd like to nominate Vesa Toskala, for expanding his repertoire beyond simply opening the door to the bench. He isn't our winner, because he still has room to improve (starting with covering the whole net). But, he wasn't the train wreck that McBackup had appeared to be the last few games. I wasn't going to nominate Matt Stajan, but apparently the talking heads on SportsNet nominated him for me, as the wind beneath Jarome Iginla's wings. OK, he played decent and while he shouldn't be with Iggy, he can help this team (and will have to, since he's been signed through 2014).

For this one, our winner is Mark Giordano. He was the steadiest of the D-men today, he played a bunch, chipped in a goal and an assist, and with the mysterious poor play of Jay Bouwmeester has perhaps become the Flames most reliable defenceman. He still isn't typically playing the toughest matchups, but he's making the best of the matchups he's getting.

Best Actor in a Lead Role - Well, seriously, it's hard to pick anyone other than The Captain (capital letters brought to you by Peter Loubardias) after his three goals. But, Iggy didn't win this with a seamless effort from start to finish. Like many a 'best actor', he was overshadowed by the supporting cast (played by Miiko Koivu and the rest of the Wild first line) for a good chunk of the game. However, the memorable moments belonged to him, the shots that stole the show.

The other nominee would be Guillaume Latendresse, who is one more in a long line of players who benefitted from a change of address. He's good evidence for the theory that past the first few picks, drafting is a crapshoot and good teams can be built from good NHL scouting and a keen eye for bargains. For all of Darryl Sutter's flaws, he's done a good job with this in finding some gems for the Flames (Rene Bourque, Curtis Glencross, maybe Chris Higgins if he stays), which makes you wonder why he's so mesermerized by the bigger names (Olli Jokinen, Ales Kotalik, Steve Staios) he's acquired at a high cost and dubious value.

Best Director - As with all Flames games lately, the great result doesn't reflect a dominant effort. The scoring chances came out even, the Corsi numbers are generally sub-zero, and the large number of goals is not necessarily repeatable without an improved effort. A large part of the problem in my eyes is Brent Sutter's troubles with line matchups. I'll give the Best Director award to Todd Richards because he certainly had more success directing the action on the ice than his counterpart behind the Flames bench. However, I might have done as good a job figuring out who to put on the ice against the Flames 4th line that Sutter kept putting out there at the strangest times (coming out of a powerplay, for example). Koivu and Martin Havlat and friends spent far too much time on the ice against the Craig Conroy and Eric Nystrom's trios - fortunately, good directing doesn't always mean a good result if the acting doesn't get the job done.

Flames vs. Wild Game Thread

2010-03-07T17:00:28Z

Jeff McIntosh - AP

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Xcel Energy Center

1 PM MT

Opposition: Hockey Wilderness

TV: Sportsnet West

With a badly needed win tucked away Friday, the Flames head out for a two game sojourn that starts in St. Paul this afternoon. I mentioned the other night that pretty much every game is a mandatory victory at this juncture, and today's meet-up with the Wild is no different. In fact, it's the type of game where they could do themselves a favour by separating from a team below them for once. As we all saw on Wednesday, the Wild do seem to have the ability to put Calgary into a deep slumber, and that type of half-game effort just won't do when you're not comfortably in the playoffs.

I won't go into too much detail today, because we just saw the Wild a few days ago, and it doesn't sound like the Flames will be adjusting any personnel after their win over the Devils. I didn't think much of the play of Stajan-Bourque-Iginla through the first two periods, and the goal that Stajan tallied in the third was a Bourque production, with the captain irrelevant. I've said this before, but even if you want to bend over backwards to give Jarome Iginla the benefit of the doubt, it would take a powerful pair of blinders to ignore his play when he's confronted with the other team's best. I'm at the point where I don't care who his line mates are, as long as he takes on the second string. That noted, a few goals always make coaches think that they've found the elixir, so I can't see them splitting until the team falls behind in a game by more than one.

So, Langkow should ride with Higgins and Kotalik again, and Mikael Backlund will have another outing with Hagman and David Moss. The bottom half of the Flames' roster was very solid against New Jersey, and although I've openly disagreed with the policy that leaves Dawes in the PB, Nystrom and Mayers have been OK. I'm still of the mind that this personnel deployment is an opportunity for exploiting mismatches gone wanting, though.

The defence will likely roll as is, but Steve Staios is very likely over his head against top-sixers. I don't see him being busted down until a bad loss, even with the somewhat shaky play that he and Bouwmeester exhibited on Friday. That does leave Sarich and Giordano a good chance to boss Minnesota's lower orders in the manner they managed Friday, which was a tidy affair on their part.

The Herald story I linked to suggested that Brent Sutter wasn't dropping any hints as to what he has in mind regarding his starting goalie. I don't really want to see Vesa Toskala play a meaningful game this spring, and he may not go today, but if he's going to get more than two games in, this might be a non-B2B spot for him, particularly with it being a matinee on a shortish turn-around and Detroit looming on Tuesday.

Minnesota's last outing ended in a loss via the skills competition Friday night versus the Oilers. The news from that encounter was the reckless knee hit Derek Boogaard unloaded on Ryan Jones. That bit of foul business will cost the Wild "enforcer" two games and a bunch of dough, and I can't help but feel he got off pretty lightly. I am somewhat conflicted about his absence, though, because he's a liability for the Wild when he's not attempting to damage someone.

Game wise, the Flames were a bit fortunate to get the Olympic version of Marty Brodeur the other night, so I wouldn't relish their chances if they fall behind in this one. One area not even worth thinking about anymore is special teams, since those sorts of events have apparently been prohibited by secret league protocol in Calgary games for the duration.

Puck drop goes shortly after 1 MT on Sportsnet West.

Flames/Devils Post-Game - 5 Goals, 25 Feet

2010-03-06T16:49:01Z

More photos » Jeff McIntosh - AP

Go to the net, score five goals! That sounds pretty easy...

Alright, raise your hand if you thought the game was over at the end of the first period. Come on now, raise it up - don't pretend you weren't skeptical the Flames would ever score a goal again. Hell, I missed the first period and wasn't sure I wanted to kill the rest of my Friday night watching periods two and three. Fortunately, I recalled that I rarely have anything better to do on a Friday night, and thus watched Daymond Langkow open the heavens.

And it is fitting that Langkow got the goal (his first in 22 games - wow!), if only because he's been one of the stars of the comments here on M&G lately - should he be traded, is he valuable, with whom he should play. It's also fitting the goal covered five feet or so from stick to goal-line, because that was the theme of the night (and not coincidentally, the subject of coach Sutter's discussion with the media after the game on Wednesday night against the Wild.

Let's start with that point. Clearly the Flames were sending more guys at the net and trying to get into the dirty areas. Langkow's goal came after a minute plus of zone pressure (punctuated by two separate icings by the Devils and Sutter stopping himself from putting out the 4th line for the advantageous faceoff). Chris Higgins did a lot of the dirty work. He continues to show the fans heart and effort and puck-driving results. Hopefully he is also showing the rest of the league that he needs a pay cut because he can't score.

Eric Nystrom had his second strong game in a row - perhaps he just needs 2-3 week breaks every 20 games or so, because he looked like this at the beginning of the year two. And he was rewarded with a great goal (that also traveled five feet - note the pattern). David Moss popped in a rebound (one of the many which a pretty shaky Martin Brodeur gave up), as did Matt Stajan. Even Curtis Glencross' goal was from relatively close-in (never mind he skated 140 feet with the puck first to get there). That man is nails on a breakaway - ironically his only shootout attempt this year was in Anaheim after Iggy tied it up late (he scored a breakaway goal that game as well) and the story the next day was "why was Glencross shooting instead of Jarome Iginla".

Does this mean that the Flames are finally buying into "the system"? Of course it doesn't. It was just one game. There is no point in trying to reach some overriding conclusion after this effort, coming as it does on the heels of that depressing game on Wednesday. It is certainly a positive that every forward but one got on the scoresheet, and I suppose Jamal Mayers made up for that with the two scraps. It is absolutely a positive that the Flames didn't go into a defensive shell in the third period, even if the four or five straight shifts they were stuck in their end early in the third made it look that way.

However, more evidence is required, which is life as a fan. Coming out of the break, a reasonable estimate was they need 13 wins in 20 games. Two games later they need 12 in 18. Onwards to Minnesota!

Random Notes: Jarome Iginla stickhandles a lot, doesn't he. When he's carrying the puck through the neutral zone, he is chopping up the ice like nobody's business. Has he always done that? Or is it just more noticable now that he loses it in the offensive zone much more regularly...Rene Bourque playing with Iggy seems like the best thing for the team on paper, but he always looks like a better player to my eye playing with others. Perhaps the solution is putting instant chemistry (Langkow) between Iggy and Bourque. Hmmm, wonder if anyone has considered that before...Discussion disparaging Langkow's defensive coverage are ridiculous. I stopped counting the number of times he was first to the puck in the defensive end and he's nearly always in the right place. However, I wish he was a little stronger on the puck once he has gained possession, sometimes he's a little bit cute with it...It's probably too late now but clearly the coaching staff hasn't evaluated their defensemen enough to have figured out a true shutdown D pairing. I thought all the D pairs were a bit shaky...I could write a whole column on my frustrations with the Flame's breakout, but we'll leave that for another day.

Flames vs. Devils Game Thread

2010-03-05T23:42:31Z

Paul Beaty - AP

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Pengrowth Saddledome

7 PM MT

Opposition: In Lou We Trust

TV: Sportsnet West

There aren't many cliches that reach their saturation point faster than the ones about "must-wins" and "big games down the stretch". Too often, the points in the latter part of the season are treated as if they count for more, when not only is that not true in the literal sense, but teams that get hot late aren't really more or less successful in the post-season than teams that simply have decent records in March and April.

That said, when your season has been as indifferent as the Flames' through the first 63 games, you can break out the must-win stuff, I suppose, because they might need to win the overwhelming majority of their last 19 games to even have a sniff at mid-April action. Tonight, they host the one other team that decided to make it's major transaction before the Olympics.

Sounds like the lines are getting a bit of a shake-up, with Iginla, Stajan and Bourque slated to start together. I'm at the point where expecting Jarome Iginla to carry the team seems almost unfair. I don't doubt that his line mates haven't been the best, but he's just not that guy anymore. Now, the last time I whaled on him, he scored 2 goals versus the Ducks, so there's certainly a bit of reverse psychology at work here ;-), but his performance against the Wild was so uninspiring that memories of his nice Olympics faded tout de suite. If Bourque alone can't make a go of things, I suspect R O's long-stated wish of Langkow and Iggy may be on the menu in short order.

Daymond Langkow will likely work with Moss and Higgins, the latter of whom must have pissed some higher power off mightily at some point in the recent past. That snapped stick play on Wednesday drove domebeers' BFF Peter Loubardias to a level of spluttering ineloquence that was entirely appropriate in the circumstances, and Higgins' baleful post-game reaction spoke volumes about the effect of confidence on players, even at the NHL level. If there was ever a guy who could use a break, it's him, and he really deserves it on the merits since arriving in Calgary.

Mikael Backlund, in the Sun's best estimation, will get Hagman and Kotalik. If they play against the lower orders of the Devil roster, they might be OK, because Hagman is certainly a better player than that sort of competition as a rule. That will apparently leave Glencross, Nystrom and Mayers as the fourth group. I'll say this again for posterity; if Dawes and Conroy are healthy, Nystrom and Mayers should be in suits. I don't give a rat's ass if Nigel Dawes isn't a prototypical "4th liner". He's still useful, and if he were given soft minutes with Glencross, those two could likely make some hay.

The defence has received the expected shake-up in the wake of Steve Staios' arrival. He'll operate with Jay Bouwmeester, while Sarich and Regehr resume their partnership. Those last two gents don't skate or move the puck well enough to play together, IMO, and leaving White and Giordano as a pair will make for an interesting evening of potential riverboat gambling. I'm not sure those duos survive the night.

Miikka Kiprusoff will start again, undoubtedly hoping that his team decides to a) score a goal or three, and b) not leave various Devil forwards alone in the slot. I haven't the foggiest idea when Vesa Toskala will grace us with his presence in the net, but if the Flames are really worried about fatiguing their bell cow, Sunday afternoon in Minnesota might be a spot for the new number two to receive an airing.

The Devils, like Calgary, chose to make a major line-up modification in early February, adding Ilya Kovalchuk to the line-up. He's certainly a skilled player, but his history is that he's a guy prone to being one-way traffic. Even with the acquisition of the Russian sniper, the main source of concern for any team is Zach Parise. The diminutive one is amongst the game's most lethal offensive players, taking advantage of good starting position to badly out-shoot and out-score his opposition. From the looks of things at Behind the Net, Jacques Lemaire sticks guys like Jay Pandolfo and Rob Niedermayer with a fair bit of defensive zone grunt work in order to occasionally ease the way for his big guns. The Devils certainly miss Paul Martin on the back end, with the defender still on the shelf with a fractured forearm, and the newly acquired Martin Skoula isn't exactly a high end replacement. Martin Brodeur will get the nod in goal, fresh off a 3 goal in 20 shot outing against San Jose. If we're lucky, maybe we'll see that double-pad stack he pulled out against Brian Rafalski once again ;-)

Of course, the Flames would likely shoot the puck off someone's shinpads if that scenario presented itself, so I'm not filled with a great deal of confidence at the moment. The formula for a win is pretty clearly scoring first, because we've all seen the despair that sets in once the other side moves in front, and after the second goal Wednesday, my immediate thought was "insurmountable lead". As I mentioned in the open, the Flames are on the bad side of the odds to make the post-season at the moment, and if they have a hope to get there, the push has to begin tonight.

Game time is 7 MT on Sportsnet West.

Sclerosis

2010-03-05T05:45:10Z

More photos » Jeff McIntosh - AP

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As I noted two nights ago, my expectations for positive activity at the trade deadline on the Flames' behalf were fairly low. With a day to reflect, I thought I'd try to make sense of the deals that Darryl Sutter made. As anyone who was reading my comments yesterday would know, I certainly wasn't seeing any benefits as the deals were occurring, but it only seemed fair to let things cool off before reviewing matters a bit more thoroughly.

When I look at a deal, I'm mindful that a GM has three asset bases to operate from. First, of course, is a team's current reserve list. The second asset is whatever pool of draft picks a team has available at any given moment. Finally, every team has a budget limit, whether it's the cap in the case of a team like Calgary, or an internal budget number as a club like Nashville or Dallas would operate under. The usable asset for a GM, obviously, is the space between current and future obligations on the one hand, and that team's limit on the other.

With those factors in mind, let's review yesterday's activities:

Dustin Boyd to Nashville for a 4th round draft pick in 2010:

I use the phrase asset management a lot, and when situations like the Boyd deal arise, I begin to question whether Sutter, and other GMs of his ilk, actually understand how hard it is to acquire a NHL player from a middle round draft pick. For a player picked in the 4th round, the historical percentage of that pick turning into a big-leaguer is around 9%. Whatever people might think of Dustin Boyd, the Flames traded a player who had beaten the odds in his own way. Third rounders aren't much more likely to make the Show, and the fact that he had graduated, even as a 4th liner, meant the Flames had gained something tangible with his selection that was greater than what you could bank on from simple chance.

The other factor that makes me wonder about the team's judgement is the matter of his age and contract status. He'll turn 24 this year and was a RFA at season's end. The Flames had him in a spot where he wouldn't have garnered much more money via negotiations or offer sheet, and they could have retained a decent player at a bottom-of-the-roster price. I really couldn't care less if he'd plateaued as a guy who was going to be somewhere between 9th and 14th on the depth chart, because that's exactly what they were paying him. At the very least, his play and salary caused no harm, and he was young enough that he may well have improved to at least an acceptable third line option on a good team.

So, you have a salary-controlled player at the bottom of the roster who wasn't that bad at actually playing hockey. He was cheap, would likely continue to be so, and you would own his rights for the next several years. What do you do? I could think of many useful things, even if the team wanted to move him along, but selling him for a low-chance lottery ticket wouldn't be any of them. When the team begins the search for some useful cheap guys next season, they might realize that a player of his level would have been handy to have around. This isn't an epic disaster or anything, but it certainly is a matter of a GM not really attaching proper value to an actual, live, NHL player.

Curtis McElhinney to Anaheim for Vesa Toskala:

This is actually the trade I could defend with the least difficulty, and it's no hell. The Flames do need a decent back-up for a few more games this year, and as dreadful as Vesa Toskala has been the last several seasons, he still has more pedigree than McE. That doesn't mean that the trade was worthwhile, but unless there's actual evidence that the acquisition of his contract limited the Flames from taking on a better player, it's really just spending money against this season's cap, and I've seen no evidence that ownership is interested in restraining Sutter from making these sorts of moves. All this transaction does is signal that the Flames will have a new number two goalie next year, and not much beyond that. My only hope beyond whatever Toskala may add in the next few weeks is that Anaheim feels like they owe the Flames a favour for saving them 700k. I'm not counting on that, but stranger things have happened.

Aaron Johnson and a 3rd round pick in 2010 or 2011 to Edmonton for Steve Staios:

This deal, of course, can only be defended if you're convinced that Darryl Sutter will be able to shed some piss-poor contracts this summer without giving up something tangible from the Flames' asset base. If he can, as a hockey deal for the next 19 games, it can be defended in some manner as long as Staios plays better than Adam Pardy and the Flames play past April 10th. If he doesn't play better than Pardy and the Flames finish 9th or worse, keeping Aaron Johnson and the pick would have be preferable.

It's the implications for next season that make this deal seem like such a loser move. If the Flames wanted to simply add a veteran D man, they could have traded that 3rd rounder for a player with an expiring deal. As iffy a case of asset management as it would have been, they could have tried to use Boyd to leverage an UFA player like Joe Corvo. At least that guy can still play, and play big minutes at a proper level. Frankly, they likely could have had Aaron Ward or Andrew Alberts for peanuts, and again, those guys would both disappear from the payroll in the summer while offering analogous performance to the man they acquired.

In contrast, the Flames are stuck with a defenceman in his mid-thirties who's level of play has dropped off since the Oilers made their cup run in '06, and whose cap hit for next year is 2.7 million. On top of that, they gave Edmonton something extra to make the deal. Given the cap mess Steve Tambellini made for himself, I would have asked for a pick if I were demented enough to acquire Staios in the first place.

Again, if Staios' contract disappears this summer, then the price isn't an issue, but the fix the Flames are in for next year would have prevented me from ever pulling the trigger. I went through the Flames' cap situation for the next two years Monday, and needless to say, this doesn't aid matters. The Flames have less than 4 million dollars left for next year if the cap stays flat, and have Higgins and White to deal with, plus they'll need to fill out the bottom few guys on the roster. That seems like an awfully tight spot to put yourself just to acquire Steve Staios.

So, let's examine how Sutter did in managing his assets. First, the reserve list hasn't been affected that much for this year, and Staios may be a plus for the next 19 games. Next year, when the Flames are wishing for a cheap bottom-sixer, Boyd's absence may be fully felt, but that is next year's problem, and as I noted the other night, you can fill out the bottom of a roster later in the UFA period if you're a smart shopper.

Draft picks, as I mentioned yesterday, are the currency of player movement on deadline day, with 2nd rounders being the going rate for a useful UFA. In terms of acquisition, the 4th rounder for Boyd was a low-ball return for an actual body his age. Would a 2nd rounder been enough? For the criteria I have, not really, but 2nd round picks do seem to have tangible value around the league as bargaining chips. As I noted yesterday when the deal went down, the third rounder in the Staios deal was overkill, only in that Edmonton should have been giving up a tangible thing for Calgary's assistance in getting that contract off of their books.

Finally, cap space. For this year, unless the acquisition of Toskala clearly scuppered another deal, the cap issue isn't relevant. The Flames have plenty of room for injuries, and lots of bodies to go through before they'd have to call up another player.

It's next season where the Flames have begun to get clogged up. They have a pretty average roster that's almost completely in place, precious little wiggle room to address any potential needs, and that condition existed before they acquired Steve Staios. Yesterday's events left the team less flexible than they were before the trades.

It really is the cap space management aspect of the Staios move that gives me the most pause. I was hoping that last year's season-ending fiasco would serve as Darryl Sutter's "kid touching a hot stove" moment. He was openly contemptuous of people that questioned how he handled the team's roster last spring, and for anyone who would point to injuries or bad luck as an excuse, you'll notice he didn't leave the team in that spot this year. His cap management for this season was actually pretty reasonable for a team that had as many big tickets as this one did coming out of camp.

What he has done, of course, is ham-string himself for next year, and for a very shaky potential return in the short term. The only conclusion I can come to is he believes that every summer can be like last summer, where he managed to extract himself from a couple of self-dug holes, but that's questionable risk-management given the limited number of teams that can take on the contract of a player like Sarich, Staios or Kotalik. I can only hope that for the sake of those of us that cheer for the Flames, he actually can move the necessary pieces around this summer, because if Darryl Sutter has lost another gamble, next season will be another where the team remains mediocre at best.

The Flames situation heading into this offseason.

2010-03-05T03:14:29Z

Heading into the 2010-11 NHL Season the Flames will have the second largest payroll in the NHL and that's with out including are 7 NHL free agents. The payroll is only behind the youthful and sometimes questionable Chicago Blackhawks - None the less they are in a much better situation then we are, more after the jump.

Next season the Flames will have $53,379,167 devoted to the current roster without bringing back any of our current UFA's or RFA's who have NHL contracts. I have compiled a list of players that will have paychecks heading into next season and compiled a list of our current players destined for the open market. The Cap Space for next season that I've used is the active 58.6 Million.

Offseason numbers.

Money into players right now: $53,379,167

Cap Space: $5,220,833

Needs: 1st Line Centre, Backup Goalie

Draft Picks: No 1st or 2nd Round Picks

Forwards (Cap Hit)

Jarome Iginla (7,000,000)

Daymond Langkow (4,500,000)

Matt Stajan (3,500,000)

Rene Bourque (3,333,333)

Niklas Hagman (3,000,000)

Ales Kotalik (3,000,000)

David Moss (1,300,000)

Mikael Backlund (1,270,833)

Curtis Glencross (1,200,000)

Nigel Dawes (850,000)

Forwards = $28,954,166

Defensemen

Jay Bouwmeester (6,680,000)

Robyn Regehr (4,020,000)

Cory Sarich (3,600,000)

Steve Staios (2,700,000)

Mark Giordano (891,666)

Adam Pardy (700,000)

Defense = $18,591,666

Goaltenders

Miikka Kiprusoff (5,833,333)

Goalies = $5,833,333

Total Salary = $53,379,167

UFA's/RFA's

Forwards

Chris Higgins (2,250,000) UFA

Jamal Mayers (1,333,333) UFA

Craig Conroy (1,050,000) UFA

Eric Nystrom (687,500) UFA

Brian McGrattan (547,000) UFA

Defenseman

Ian White (850,000) RFA

Goaltenders

Vesa Toskala (4,000,000) UFA

There are about four contracts that Flames would be better off without.

- Daymond Langkow still has $8,750,000 owed to him for the next two seasons. Cap hit of 4.5 over those two years.

- Cory Sarich still has $7,000,000 owed to him for the next two seasons. Cap hit of 3.6 over those two years.

- Ales Kotalik still has $6,000,000 owed to him for the next two seasons. Cap hit of 3.0 over those two years.

- Steve Staios still has $2,220,000 owed to him for next season. Cap hit of 2.7 over next year.

That totals $23,970,000 tied up into these three players. Daymond Langkow (33) and Ales Kotalik (31) are probably the most attractive players out of these three and could be moved if the right team came along, Steve Staios will not be brought back after next season so 2010-11 will probably Sarich is also 31. Langkow will be 34 and Sarich will be 32 when the 10-11 campaign begins.

All three will be very hard to dump but if all three just brought in Prospects and Draft Picks that would make everything a lot easier and calmer in Calgary with Money to rope in the big fish Patrick Marleau in particular. The main objective for the Flames this season is simple make the playoffs. This offseason you can decide whether it is right to start from scratch.

This again doesn't bring into the account of any AHLers that could make the jump next season and most of us would agree that no one down on the farm is quite ready to make the jump to the big time.

The Staios deal is a mess. Whatever "intangibles" he adds to the roster are likely to fall well...

2010-03-04T19:18:09Z

The Staios deal is a mess. Whatever "intangibles" he adds to the roster are likely to fall well short of his relatively expensive contract. Unless he regains the sort of on-ice form he showed years ago, Staios is a bad bet to provide value for his contract and is a toxic asset - one which was happily expunged by the rather hapless organization up north.

It's a move that smacks of a man either lost in the past or completely out of ideas.

My look at the Steve Staois acquisition.

Post-Break Post-Game - Welcome Back?

2010-03-04T05:52:49Z

More photos » Tom Olmscheid - AP

Minnesota Wild's Mikko Koivu, demonstrating to the Flames what it looks like after you score a goal.

I'm not sure what is more depressing - that this game is the first I get to write the post-game writeup, or that I started writing it at the end of the 2nd period. I went back and re-read the last post-game before the break, titled "Causes for Optimism". At the time, I was optimistic about the Flames chances coming out of the Olympics. Jarome Iginla did look like classic Iggy, Jay Bouwmeester did look like a full value shutdown defenceman who could and would take on all comers and still help drive offense. The new forward core was pushing the puck in the right direction.

So what happened?

If you were looking for answers after the jump, I don't know what to tell you. I can say that 'lack of finish' is a tired cliche that I use too much, but it fits this team. They are pushing the puck in the right direction (at least until after the 2nd Wild goal tonight, when they just stopped). But they don't generate great scoring chances, and it doesn't matter how many new forwards cycle through this team, that hasn't changed for years. Matt Stajan just signed for big bucks and long term - did he play tonight? Rene Bourque just signed for big bucks and long term - is he really a 3rd liner? (Ask Brent Sutter, I guess). Iggy just reinforced himself as a national hero - did he just complete his deal with the devil? A gold for a Jarmoe?

Yes, the D made a few bonehead plays tonight, and they all ended up in the net. Yes, JayBo was particularly shaky (he and Iggy were two of the four with negative Corsi). Yes, the Wild played a good 'road game' (never mind that they're a team that had all of 9 road wins coming in! ). But the Flames play a style with little room for error and depends on generating a ton of chances. Instead, we got a couple of errors, and no way to overcome those.

It is probably well past the time to do an honest assessment of coaching and playing style. Some of the zone breakouts tonight looked like they were in a pre-season game. I don't know that I know enough to judge coaching from a distance, or in a vacuum without seeing what the players are being taught. But, that's the next point of analysis and as Bob mentioned in the comments, it looks like we may have a longer summer than expected to do that analysis.

I guess the best summary of this game I can give is that it mirrored the trades made by Sutter today. Nothing stood out, nothing terrible, nothing great, just a whole bunch of nothing. Overall result is that you don't come away from it feeling good, for sure, but really, you just come away feeling empty.