Matchsticks and Gasoline

The Flames Crossroads

2012-05-18T15:12:03Z

Jay Feaster has set up an expectation of change this off-season. How dramatic of a change that will be is a matter of pretty wide speculation at the moment.

Is it posturing, more hollow PR or is there a real plan of substantial change in the works? No one knows. Feaster has already fired an early shot across the bow with the signing of Roman Cervenka, a move that is universal in endorsement and at least breaks the mold of the Flames being a mainly made in Canada player roster.

Cervenka is a low risk move, a gesture of change but one player is certainly not enough. The Flames are at a crossroads, one where they will seriously adjust their team next year or they will adjust naturally and in a timid manner.

The choice will be made this off-season and in the decision to move Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff or not.

Passive Change

The Flames roster has 6 players going UFA: Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak, David Moss, Tom Kostopoulos, Cory Sarich and Scott Hannan. 3 going RFA: Blake Comeau, Mikael Backlund and Blair Jones. Even if a stay the course mentality was in place, one would expect at least a degree of natural change here.

A few re-signings perhaps and then more or less the same old roster and the same old non-playoff result. The Flames may pick up a player or two but the team is not a player or two away from contending for the Cup. This is the worst case scenario for the team.

Moderate Change

A couple low level trades here and there, a free agent signed (overpaid naturally) and a bunch of heavy speeches on how management believes this team is ready for the playoffs. Maybe even picking up yet another old decent Vet on good value. Resign Jokienen or Sarich on value and it is all deju vu from the previous season. It is superficial change at best.

It is the Joan Rivers facelift plan. Still the same person but now more dramatic plastic surgery, the wrinkles are stretched out again to give the appearance of a potential playoff team. It is fooling next to no one now. The tired old trick of getting a new coach, couple good value Vet players and all the optimism that comes with that has to wearing thin for even the most naive fan at this point.

It may be enough to once again beat the tired drum of "we are going for the playoffs" but really that song and dance is fooling no one. It will just mean another wasted season and more dramatic decline in the future.

Surgical Change

Unlike plastic surgery, this level of change targets the remaining core.

It will target at least one of Iginla or Kipper, going into the off-season and hopefully both. It is the level of dramatic change that will signal the end of an era. It would be historic change, many Flames fans do not even know the Flames without Kipper or Iginla.

Is Jay Feaster and Co up to the task? Will ownership clear such a move? Will Jarome waive his NMC? Will Jarome narrow the potential target teams to limit the return in a trade? How will the larger fan base react?

There is a ton of unknowns here. Yet the issues from an objective hockey perspective require this kind of change. To borrow, what has become a Feasterism, if one is to be intellectually honest about the state of the team, moving Kipper and Iginla this off-season is a natural move, one required to regenerate the team long-term.

The off-season is definitely the best time to move them, from both a PR perspective and for the widest potential market. If it doesn't happen, the entire season will have constant rumors of trades regarding the two of them, it will be a constant distraction.

Jarome and Kipper will feel like dead men walking which would really be a awful way for them to end their tenure in Calgary.

Trade talk has always surrounded Jarome, every season it is always there but get ready for all that talk to get put on nitro if he is not traded. Unless Feaster comes out and says directly, as he did last year, that Jarome is absolutely not being traded, the wild fire of speculation will spread all season long, in a way that will dwarf all previous speculation.

Conclusion

It is impossible to anticipate what will or will not happen for the Flames at this point.

For at least 3 years hockey writers and analysts have been talking about the Flames needing to rebuild, the need to trade Iginla, the need to stop getting older. The management group never listened and constantly plugged forward with the playoffs or bust mentality, well the bust part is here now.

The Flames are starving for talent in the key 23-27 age group, as discussed by Kent Wilson of Flames Nation here.

They have failed to address this area for years and no matter how high you are on Mikael Backlund, you can not claim he is enough. As predicted many years ago, the Flames are headed straight off a cliff in the near future, if they do not acquire some reasonable talent in this age group.

One more muddled-middling season, while Jarome and Kipper get another year older and depreciate further and Flames fans will have to really tighten the seat belts because only the strong will survive. Down to the gutter to live with the bottom five, with only the hope of high round draft picks to live for. That is tough for fans and although Calgary has grown a lot since the 1990s, I still consider the Flames fan base soft.

For me the choice, isn't really a choice at all.

The edge of the cliff is clearly in sight. Taking the risk of big trades now could change the direction of the team enough to halt plummeting over the edge. The trades may backfire and the Flames may still head off the cliff to the basement but at least they tried to do something.

The only wrong move this off season is timid, superficial changes, that will practically gaurantee a slow painful death of the team over several years as they descend to a longer path back to contention.

Make the big moves, do it like an amputation and quick and clean with a big axe. Not slowly and more painfully over time with a butter knife. Give the fans time to mourn the movement of Kipper and Iginla and get on with a new era in Flames history. One can only hope it happens.

It is the big crossroads...

Poll

So what is going to happen this off-season?

Rookie Review: TJ Brodie

2012-05-17T22:39:16Z

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2011 - TJ Brodie	54	2	12	14	3	14	1	0	2		44	4.5

After looking at two of the Flames' most exciting forward prospects, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at how some of the team's rookies did this past year in a season that was full of emergency call-up and holes in the lineup that were filled by first-time or junior NHLers--with varying degrees of success.

One of the players that pulled his weight this season without question was defenceman T.J. Brodie. Every regular Flames defender apart from Jay Bouwmeester was injured at some point during the 2011-12 season, and Brodie was thrown into a variety of roles with a variety of partners before succumbing to an upper-body injury near the end of the year.

Despite that, Brodie was still relatively sheltered by Brent Sutter and the Flames' coaching staff. In his average 14:41 of ES ice time per game, Brodie faced the easiest quality of competition of all regular Flames defenders who played 40+ games, and had the best offensive ZS ratio at 51.9%. He also played an average of almost 2:00 on the PP per game and barely any time on the PK--which is quite impressive for a rookie defender like Brodie, who scored six of his fourteen points with the man advantage.

Back in April, Robert Vollman concluded that the projections for Brodie's performance following his transition from the AHL to the NHL were very accurate, as the 21-year-old scored at a rate of 0.26 points/game in a season shortened by injury, very close to and slightly better than the projected scoring rate of 0.24 points/game.

It should not go unmentioned that Brodie still had the best Corsi rate of any regular Flames defender at +3.34/60, which means that he was often able to outplay opposing players and even occasionally make them look downright silly. Cory Sarich, who faced a slightly harder level of comp than Brodie, was the only other Flames defender with a positive Corsi rate this past season and Derek Smith, who played at around the same level of Sarich, was in the red.

In the context of last season, Brodie made excellent progress after being sent back down to the Heat after appearing in the first three games of the 2010-11 season with the Flames and drawing criticism from both Jay Feaster and Jim Playfair. Next season, however, is a whole different ball game.

Cory Sarich and Scott Hannan, both UFAs, could be (and some would argue, should be) gone come July 1, and Anton Babchuk and the $2.5M remaining on his contract could be moved after appearing in only 32 games last season. What does this mean for Brodie? Is the former fourth-round pick ready to move up in the lineup or does he need further experience, building his confidence against the opposition's bottom sixers and following a more Mark Giordano-esque development path? Much of this will depend on how Feaster's personnel decisions shake down this summer and the path he chooses to go down with the organization (i.e. whether he drafts a defenceman--someone like Reinhart comes to mind--or picks up some mid-to-low price UFAs to fill gaps in the lineup, although that is for another post closer to Canada day).

Flames Cancel Rookie Tournament

2012-05-16T20:45:46Z

Flames Cancel Rookie Tournament

According to Sportsnet, the NHL has notified the NHLPA that it "wants to modify or terminate the existing collective bargaining agreement," which has led several teams including the Flames to cancel their annual rookie tournament in Penticton, BC because of concerns about another potential work stoppage.

The current CBA expires mid-September and one of the main "sticking points" between the league and the player's association is believed to be revenue sharing--meaning the league is likely looking to reduce the amount of the revenue that the players receive. More to come as the story develops.

The Weekly Round-Up: May 14th, 2012

2012-05-14T21:45:03Z

Hello, this feature that will go through what the Flames players, prospects, and personnel have been up to in the past week. After the jump, something will probably make you angry. Just a guess.

I really don't understand why anyone is surprised Dale Hunter's stepping down.

Seriously, whenever you watched the guy in an interview, it just seemed like he hated having to talk to people. Not in that Sutter "grumble I'm better then you stop questioning me" way, but rather in the "sigh why am I doing this" way. Point is, people have been talking about the possibility of this happening pretty much ever since Hunter got the job. Guy has an extremely successful junior team and he doesn't seem like he wants to be involved with the NHL? Buh-bye.

This whole thing was likely a favour to George McPhee more then anything else.

Flames

Very little news on the Flames front this week - I'm sure a large part of that is due to my disconnectedness from the internet as a whole, but really the only thing worth mentioning here is Karri Ramo's rather intriguing thoughts regarding his position in the Flames' organization among other things. The interview, which was conducted in Helsinki (where he's currently backing up starter Kari Lehtonen Finnish WC team) brings a few ideas to mind.

Talk of the Flames trading players seems to have fallen by the wayside the past couple of weeks due to activity in the free agent market and the visibility of the WHL Championship series (more on that in a while). Thinking about Ramo in a backup role doesn't really excite me. What does, however, is Ramo in a starting role.

We've been talking for a while now about Miikka Kiprusoff's pretty good season and his value on the trade market. In Ramo, the Flames have a goalie who is the consensus best guy not in the NHL™ as well as someone who is just about to enter his developmental prime as a goaltender. The Flames need to eventually realize that these two things, when taken in conjunction with the state of the rest of the team, spell out a pretty clear path.

Of course, there's also the matter(s) of Leland Irving and Henrik Karlsson. Irving said last summer that Europe was definitely an option for him and something he strongly considered before eventually signing the one-year deal the Flames put in front of him. While my thoughts on Irving are pretty clearly known, I still think the Flames should re-sign him, as he is still a prospect and an asset. But, in saying that, I don't think Irving re-signs if two or more of Ramo, Kiprusoff and Karlsson are here next year. You do probably have to factor in the unknown quantity of Danny Taylor as well, even if the Flames don't technically control his rights at this point in time.

Speaking of Karlsson, I think he knows at this point that his time with the Flames is over. Irving was the favoured replacement after Hank went down with his ACL injury in late November, and it seemed as though he wasn't very happy about it. The thing with Karlsson is that he all too often makes what should be easy saves look difficult while also from time to time making something out of nothing - also known as Fred Brathwaite syndrome. I will, eventually, go a bit more in-depth with what that actually means.

If I had my druthers, Kiprusoff would be traded and a 1-2 tandem of Ramo and Irving would man the Flames nets next year, while Taylor and Karlsson would be on the farm team.

Heat

The Heat were eliminated last week from the AHL playoffs after losing game 5 in Overtime. Sads all around. Not much else to say about it except that it was the franchise's first ever overtime playoff game! They now have a winning percentage of 0% in overtime playoff games. Embarrassing.

Troy Ward's name has come up a couple times recently regarding who's going to be the next coach of the Flames. Bodog has him as the favourite at like 7/4 odds (not worth it). For the record, I think Ward is a pretty good coach, but his value to the organization is in development - he's not ready to be the head coach of an NHL team after only one season as a head coach behind the bench of a pro team. Plus, if the Flames were to remove Ward, it would be the third time in three years the Flames' AHL affiliate had a new head coach. Seriously, there is a tiny tiny bit to be said about consistency.

Saying that, Troy Ward will probably be the next head coach. It would be a very Flames-like thing to do.

Kiddos

The WHL Championship series also ended this week, as the Oil Kings beat the Winterhawks in 7 to claim the title. SVEN was pretty much completely shut down by Mark Pysyk et al in the final two games, but Laurent Brossoit stopped 61 out of 65 in games 6 and 7 to suffocate the 'Hawks. Oh, yeah, he also won the series MVP award. No bigs.

Although, ya gotta get rid of that 'stache, bro.

Next Week

The Memorial Cup starts up, and the Oil Kings will be involved. The Flames and Heat will do a couple insignificant things.

A Moment of Zen

(click to biggify zen)

Have a good week.

Devils vs Rangers (The Eastern Conference Final)

2012-05-13T13:53:22Z

After what seemed like a long lull in the playoffs, the final berth was finally established for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Rangers finally punch their ticket with a win over the Capitals. No shame on the Caps, they actually played some excellent hockey, unseating the Cup Champion Bruins before falling to the Rangers.

Despite unquestioned skill, they still face question marks regarding their inability to go deep in the playoffs. They have some roster turn-over going into the off-season. Tomas Vokoun is likely to get resigned because better goaltending may have made the difference for them this year. In addition to him some significant players may be leaving. Alexander Semin, Mike Knuble, Dennis Wideman and Mike Green is going RFA. The Capitals will likely be looking for some tweaks in the off-season.

The Rangers are the sole strong regular season team remaining. Other juggernauts that surrounded them in the regular season standings are all long gone at this point. The Canucks, Blues, Penguins, Predators, Flyers, Red Wings and Bruins.

The Devils are a team that surged late in the season. Winning their last six games and carrying that momentum into the playoffs to dispatch the Panthers and the Flyers. Little more this and that after the jump.

Torts does his post game after the Rangers win.

Coach DeBoer talks about preparation for either the Capitals or the Rangers after the practice on May 11th. The Devils have had the luxury of a bit of rest before hand.

The Rangers took the regular season match up with a 3-2-1 record over the Devils.

The East will deliver two previous Cup Champions, both teams have numerous Cups in their history. The last one for the Rangers was in 1994. The Devils had their success in the dead puck era and engraved Stanley 3 times: 1995, 2000 and 2003.

Martin Brodeur is the only remaining Devil to have his name on the Cup from all three previous wins for the franchise. At the age of 40 some questions will remain if he can hold up in the Conference finals. He has let in some soft goals previously but the Devils have responded in front of him to earn it back.

Despite the Rangers better paper factor, don't count the Devils out, they are rested and fully capable of taking out a tired Rangers team, if only Marty has that little bit of gas left in the tank to rise to elite play.

Poll

Who wins the East ?

Sven, Sven, Sven Baertschi

2012-05-12T19:01:16Z

It has been a long time since Flames fans have had a prospect like Sven Baertschi. He really is the best forward prospect in a long, long time. In fact I can not think off the top of my head a player who came in with the kind of expectation and excitement he is generating.

The team is at a transition point. There is a mood in the air that a changing of the guard is imminent. That a new generation of young Flames players is potentially coming in. Gone is the old mold of grinding Alberta born players in favor of a faster, more skilled and even more European composition.

Without any sort of embellishment, Sven has performed this year the way one would expect a lottery pick in the top five would perform. He faces all the challenges rookies face, the long grind of the NHL season, the higher level of game and it will be interesting.

Here is a little video of his more recent play, plus some interviews.

Plus to revisit his draft day and his comments on the transition to the North American game and what being drafted means to Swiss hockey.

The European Player Factor - Yes there is one

2012-05-11T18:22:06Z

There has been a long standing discrimination in the hockey media.

It promotes a double standard between European players and North American (NA) players. It is rife with cliches that European players are not as tough, that they lack heart, that they don't have the fortitude of NA players and especially Canadian players.

It is of course a bunch of bunk for the most part. Jonathan Willis of the Nations Network pulls out both barrels on the argument here and here. The majority in the more sophisticated realm of hockey commentary agree with him and you will find no shortage of articles in this vein.

The biased view is fed by the mainstream media and commentators like Don Cherry, who for some reason or another, like to pull the card whenever a European player is struggling, floating or simply not playing well.

One of the positive aspects of Jay Feaster and Co is that he is changing the old Don Cherry / Darryl Sutter anti-European bias in the Calgary Flames. Since Feaster has taken the GM position we have seen the Flames acquire several Europeans. In no particular order Roman Horak, Markus Granlund, Sven of course, Karri Ramo and now Roman Cervenka.

The debate is going to have more relevancy in upcoming years for the Flames and I am going to explain why it is not as black and white as Don Cherry and Jonathan Willis like to make it.

There is a factor with European players, an additional risk they have that NA players do not. Don Cherry and his cohorts like to knock them for the wrong reasons but the notion of risk in acquiring them is real and should be considered at least to some limited degree.

It is the immigrant experience all European players have to go through.

The Don Cherry side of the argument is a house of cards built upon bigoted commentary but the overall sentiment that NA players are preferable to NHL teams over Europeans is legitimate. Cherry and company come to the conclusion for all the wrong reasons. Despite his illogical argument his conclusion does have some merit, in two players of perfectly equal skill, the team should pick the NA player.

The reason why is the NA player has no cultural adjustment, no off-ice challenges, no language concerns etc. Willis ignores this additional challenge of language, potential pitfalls with the media and just life overall in a new culture.

As far as drafting goes, European players like Sven Baertschi who come over from Europe early, prior to being drafted are a lessened risk. His commitment to making the NHL is clear and they are more desirable. There is also the clear advantage of seeing them play on the smaller NA rink and gauging their game in a better context.

Players like Tim Erixon and Roman Cervenka are much more significant risks. Will their game be as good? How will they adjust? How much NHL ice time should they get? Rookie years are hard on a team that wants to make the playoffs, a single mistake can lead to a goal that can cost a team a game and 2 points and from that it can cost them the playoffs and from that millions in revenue from playoff games.

It is all a domino effect that leads to real consequences. The Rangers gave Tim Erixon 18 games and he got his bus ticket to Connecticut.

_______________

I am not focusing in this article on all the obvious aspects of growing up playing the game on bigger ice, the less physical style and so forth.

Obviously several European players have made the adjustment successfully. Jaromir Jagr, the Sedins, Ilya Kovalchuk and on and on. It is the first challenge they meet and on that grounds they either rise to succeed or fail fairly quickly.

Hockey is still hockey and skill is still skill. Cherry and other commentators muddle their perspective by suggesting that European players have less will to win, less heart to push through adversity on the ice, less ability to rise to challenge in the playoffs.

This is all wrong. As Willis points out, floaters like Dustin Penner who are hard to motivate and so forth can be accused of similar problems, it is nothing to do with country of origin, nothing. Cherry builds his argument for all the wrong reasons but one thing that all European players have to go through that NA players don't is what I am going to call "The Immigrant Experience."

It is an additional challenge they all must overcome, something that NA players don't have to. It is also a reason why NHL teams, if they are wise, will plan for it and why analysts should be more patient in judgement for Europeans.

Quite the opposite of Don Cherry and Co quick to judge them as being "less than," it is the opposite - they have the potential to be "more than."

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There are two kinds of immigrants.

There is the kind that are leaving a much poorer state of affairs in their own country. They are coming to Canada for the very real reason they fear for their lives or want to live in a country where their children will get more oppurtunites and have a better education, accessible health care and a whole host of quality of life improvements.

But in our global village today there is another type of immigrant. The one who is already in a 1st world country and immigrates to Canada, very likely for work related reasons. They are highly skilled, specialized workers that exceed the talent levels of the native inhabitants but their country socially may be superior or preferable to Canada's.

I am sure this is going to create some gasps but it is true.

There is very much a tendency to think your own nation is the best there is, the reality is if you actually immigrate to other countries to live there, especially European countries, you will see not only the limitations of your own nation but also its strengths.

Finnish hockey players who leave their country and who bring their families to Canada put their children into a less highly ranked education system as per here and here. Now Canada is not too bad on these rankings for education and health but nonetheless the fact European players are leaving very socially advanced cultures should not be lost on anyone. They are here for work and are highly unlikely to remain here once their careers are over.

They are here because it is all about their trade, their desire to play in the best hockey league in the world.

At best they are moving laterally in regards to the social level of their culture. Again you can just look at another link here.

_____________

So the additional risk for a hockey player is cultural adjustment and how that impacts them. It is a factor in any job because if you start to become unhappy in your job. If things start to go poorly, if you start to feel isolated or any number of factors it should never be overlooked that these players have the option to leave and in many cases return to even higher pay in the KHL.

Language is a critical factor. Mark Giordano on his jaunt to the KHL spoke openly about the challenges and going to the back of the line constantly in practice. He will be a valuable leader for Calgary and a possible influx of European players because at least he has the real life experience of being on the other side.

It felt like any other big city. It just that the language barrier was tough. It was tough to do everyday things like banking and groceries and all that. Mark Giordano on the KHL -
Link

The bottom line is that European players are clearly worth acquiring but they also should garner at least a little extra effort from a team to assist them in fitting in. Even if they come over with a lot of enthusiasm and ability the draw of their own home country awaits them.

There are many examples, Ales Kotalik is just an easy one. Clearly a gifted player, a powerful shot and still even with many less shootout attempts remains one of the best career shooters in the shoot-out. Just as dangerous with his heavy accurate shot as with his quick dekes, Kotalik will be no ones idea of a great NHL player but the draw of his homeland was a factor and how could it not be. North American living is not appealing to a lot of Europeans and that is understandable.

There is many differences from food quality and simple home sickness. Some people get home sick just leaving their city of birth in Canada to live elsewhere in Canada, imagine the culture shock of a European coming to Canada or the United States.

It is an additional hurdle that includes the challenge of learning a new language and the challenge of day to day living. It isn't easy and it is an aspect that should not be overlooked in Europeans.

The Immigrant Experience is something all European Players share and it is a additional challenge that all must overcome to have a successful NHL career. Rather than being a "Don Cherry" and seeing them as less than, quite the opposite they should be admired more for overcoming something every North American player takes for granted.

A Closer Look At Max Reinhart's 2011-12 Season

2012-05-10T23:22:31Z

With the Abbotsford Heat officially eliminated from the AHL Calder Cup playoffs, I thought now would be a good time to take a closer look at another Flames prospect who continues to work his way up in the organization: Max Reinhart.

After being chosen in the third round of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft by the Flames, the 20-year-old Reinhart has continued to put up impressive, though not gaudy numbers over the course of the past two WHL seasons.

Reinhart put together another steady season with the Kootenay Ice in 2011-12, scoring 28 times and adding 50 assists for 78 points in 61 games (a pace of 1.28 PPG) in what may have been his last junior season depending on how many over-agers the Ice have kicking around next year.

Reinhart's regular season points broke down as such:

EV Goals: 19

Assists: 27

EV Points: 46

PPG: 6

PPA: 22

PPP: 28

SHG: 3

SH Assists: 1

Total Special Teams Points: 32

While age is certainly a factor here, scoring over twenty goals in three consecutive seasons while only playing every game or nearly every game in two of them is fairly impressive. Reinhart's splits look pretty good, with over 50% of his offensive production coming at even strength, although they could be better. His numbers this past season indicate that he is a player who can be counted on to produce in all situations, and that versatility is something that should earn him major brownie points going forward.

After the Ice's playoff hopes were crushed in a first round sweep by the Edmonton Oil Kings, Reinhart got his first taste of pro hockey this spring, appearing in one regular season game and four playoff games with the Abbotsford Heat. In those five games he accumulated three goals and one assist (although two of those goals came in the same game), he was a +3, and had 12 shots on goal, but it's tough to glean much from such a small sample size at the pro level.

Reinhart signed an entry-level deal with the Flames a year after being drafted and with the team in a state of flux, he could potentially follow in his father Paul's footsteps sooner than expected in becoming a member of the club.

Currently ranked as the fifth best prospect in the Flames' system, Reinhart has been described as as "solid two-way player" and a "playmaking centreman" who has good speed and a "quick, accurate release" by Hockey's Future, but it has also been said that he still needs to add muscle mass and grow into his frame. He impressed the Flames last fall at the rookie tournament and was one of the last remaining stragglers to be sent back to his junior club in training camp, so it will be interesting to observe his progress at development camp this summer.

His younger brother Griffin, a draft eligible defenceman who is currently facing Sven Baertschi and the Portland Winterhawks in the WHL Western Conference Finals, could also potentially become Flames property this summer, depending on how the cards fall, but it seems unlikely that he will fall outside of the top ten. If all else fails, there's always Sam Reinhart in 2014!