Mavs Moneyball

An Early 2012 NBA Draft Primer

2012-05-24T20:29:29Z

On June 30th, the 2012 NBA Draft will take place. The Dallas Mavericks, after a less than thrilling title-defense season and an early playoff exit at the brazen, unnecessarily youthful hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently hold the 17th pick, the highest such selection they've "earned" since the year 2000, when they took Etan Thomas12th. Thomas, of course, would never play for Dallas, and there is every possibility whoever is taken 17th next month won't play for Dallas, either.

But that's no fun. So, for your reading pleasure, here is a breakdown of a handful of candidates for the Maverick's selection. You'll notice that certain names are neglected, as I tried to narrow my focus to players that, at this moment, are projected be in range for where Dallas will pick.

Just to be clear, I'm not a scout, and I do not claim absolute knowledge about where these players will go or what they'll do in the NBA. That said, I do, however, follow these things with a fairly close eye, and I try to be balanced in my analysis with advanced statistical insight, game footage(not highlights), and reputed scouting sources. It should go without saying that I welcome discussion and disagreement if it is well-founded.

I organized the players alphabetically, since at this stage a "ranking" is pretty close to a worthless exercise(unlike writing about a bunch of prospects and attempting to flush out which is the best pick a month before a draft, which is not only worthwhile but commendable). Now, without further delay:

Will Barton

Shooting Guard Memphis

Height: 6'6 Weight: 175 Birthday: 1/6/91

Stats:

35.3 min 18.0 pts 8.0 rbs 2.9 asts

50.9 FG% 74.9 FT% 34.6 3P% 26.88 PER

Positives: great athlete, long arms, finishing skills

Negatives: rail-thin, streaky from 3

Summary:

Barton is an interesting place to start. Right now he is mostly projected to the late 1st round, or even early 2nd, and so the assumption might be that he isn't on the radar for Dallas at pick #17. I find him pretty intriguing, however, and I would openly wonder if he's really worse than the half-dozen or so wing players projected ahead of him. There are a lot of similarities, both physical and statistical, to Terrence Ross, a name Mavs fans are getting to know and someone I'll cover later.

The first thing that probably jumps out about Barton is that he averaged 8 rebounds a game last year for Memphis. This wasn't a pace-created mirage, either; his rebound rate was better than highly touted big men like Fab Melo and Terrence Jones. He also had strong assist and turnover rates, and shot over 50% from the field, something credited by many to an improved midrange game and a better understand of shot selection. The gametape agrees with the stats: he is definitely an NBA caliber athlete with capable guard skills, and it is reasonable to think he'll be able to continue to get to the rim and score at the next level. Why is he not a lottery pick, then? Well, for starters, he is Kate Moss thin, listed on some sites at as low as 165 pounds. He also plays in Conference USA, which isn't totally obscure, but isn't a power conference, either.

My main concern is that I am not completely sold on his outside shooting. He hit 34.6% of his threes this past season, a big improvement from the previous year, but still not necessarily ideal. The impression I get is that scouts view him as more a scorer than shooter, and the few Memphis games I've seen don't contradict that.

Back in 2010, Portland took Elliot Williams with the 22nd pick in the draft, another thin 6'5 Memphis guard with hops and an iffy jumpshot. I think Barton is a better prospect than he was, but perhaps that speaks to the depth of this draft. Still, Barton's is a name to remember as the combine looms and draft boards shift.

Festus Ezeli

Center Vanderbilt

Height: 6'11 Weight: 255 Born: 10/21/89

Stats:

23.2 min 10.1 pts 5.9 rbs 2.0 blks

53.9 FG% 60.4 FT% 20.9 PER

Positives: size, athleticism, shotblocking

Negatives: rebounding, feel for game

Summary:

Like Barton, someone who is currently floating around that late 1st/early 2nd bubble. It might be weird to talk about a redshirt senior as an "upside" pick, but I think that's what we have in Ezeli. At 6'11 and a solid 255, he has an NBA body right now and if you watch him you will see NBA-quality athleticism as well. The Nigerian is still learning how to put that talent to use in games, however. After a breakout junior season that saw him score with incredible efficiency, he regressed somewhat as a senior, leading to questions about his motor and overall focus.

Scoring aside, someone who can run and jump as well as Ezeli should be able to rebound better than he has over his college career, and that is definitely concerning if you're looking at a guy to potentially pair with Dirk. He also was never able to stay in games very long, having something to do likely with his high rate of fouls.

Ezeli has some wrinkles, that much is clear. However, he can run the floor, block shots, and finish at the rim, and that is probably going to get him drafted by some team. #17 is probably too high to chance on him, but should Dallas trade back for whatever reason, and still be targeting bigs, Ezeli is someone that might be a solid developmental pick.

Moe Harkless

Small Forward St. John's

Height: 6'8 Weight:195 Born: 5/11/93

Stats:

36.1 min 15.3 pts 8.6 rbs 1.4 blks

44.5 FG% 20.2 3PT% 67.8 FT% 21.06 PER

Positives: rebounding, athleticism, just turned 19

Negatives: skills need refining, may be bit of a tweener

Summary:

It might not be the perfect comparison, but Moe Harkless, in a lot of ways, reminds me of Thaddeus Young: similar size, both "one and done" prospects who flashed tons of potential and displayed an intriguing mix of skills that could develop in many different ways. Harkless got to a rebuilding St. Johns team that had almost completely turned their roster over under Steve Lavin, and he was immediately handed the keys to the car. This was both good and bad. Good because he responded by putting up 15-8 and proved he was not overmatched by the Big East. Bad because being asked to do so much highlighted some of the areas he still needs to work on. The true shooting percentage and assist/turnover rates leave a lot to be desired, suggesting that a kid with his size and ability shouldn't have been playing on the perimeter as much.

That being said, Harkless had stud athletic markers for a small forward, with great rebound, block and steal rates. He is a tantalizing ball of clay. What I've seen and heard from him in games and interviews also suggests to me he is the type who wants new challenges and is intelligent enough to adapt to them. If he can sharpen the skills(which is certainly possible when you consider he's one of the youngest players in this draft), I think you have a borderline All-Star on your hands, in the Danny Granger mold. And even if he falls shy of that, I think he can still contribute as a combo forward much like Young does.

At this point in the draft process, Harkless is on the short list of guys I'd be really excited to see in a Dallas Maverick uniform. We will have to wait and see if his stock gains helium in the next few weeks or if he's a real possibility at #17.

John Jenkins

Shooting Guard Vanderbilt

Height: 6'4 Weight: 215 Born: 3/6/91

Stats:

33.6 min 19.9 pts 2.9 rbs 1.2 asts

47.4 FG% 43.9 3P% 83.7 FT% 25.43 PER

Positives: shooting, shooting, more shooting

Negatives: pretty much the rest...but boy can he shoot!

Summary:

Probably being a little unfair to Jenkins. He is a decent ballhandler, and he didn't score all his points on jumpshots...but let's be frank here: he has one real NBA skill, and that's shooting. Hey, nothing wrong with that, especially not when you shoot it like he does. He attempted 699 threes in his three college seasons, and made 43.8% of them. He posted outstanding true shooting percentages all three years, averaging nearly 20 points a game the final two. So, if you're looking for a spot up specialist, this is definitely your guy. He has a super quick release, and is never afraid to uncork it. That kind of package saw J.J Redick go in the top 15, though I don't think that's where Jenkins will end up.

For one thing, Redick is probably a bit better of an athlete than Jenkins(don't laugh), and could pass a little better. There are definitely questions about whether or not he can guard anyone in the show. If you're taking Jenkins, you're probably expecting him to be a bench ace, and, at the risk of being controversial, I don't think that's necessarily so bad to settle for if you're picking in the back quarter of the top 20.

Jenkins is probably a guy who could really benefit from a strong combine, at least to demonstrate he's not totally a one-trick pony. If he doesn't impress with his measurables, it is possible he slides to the end of or out of the first round entirely.

Doron Lamb

Shooting Guard Kentucky

Height: 6'4 Weight: 195 Born: 11/6/91

Stats:

31.2 min 13.7 pts 2.7 rb 1.5 ast

47.4 FG% 46.6 3P% 82.6 FT% 18.94 PER

Positives: shooting, ballhandling

Negatives: playmaking, lack of definite position

Summary:

Lamb is an interesting prospect, because I'm not sure if the fact that he played on Kentucky makes him overrated or underrated.

On one hand, if he had put up these numbers on the NIT champions, would anyone be talking about him in the first round? Maybe not. On the other hand, if he wasn't on Kentucky, chances are he'd have opportunities to put up much better numbers.

Like Jenkins, he has a good chance of earning an NBA paycheck because he can really shoot. Also like Jenkins, there are questions about his position and whether or not he's a good enough athlete to play a major role on a team. He did play alongside Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones, and Davis, so maybe I should forgive the lack of rebounds and the pedestrian usage rate. One positive aside from the outside shooting is that he seems to be very good at playing within himself, and not trying to do too much. His assists numbers aren't incredible, but the assist to turnover ratio is good enough that I wonder if some team might not try him out at point guard at the next level.

Right now I think he's an early-mid 20's pick, but the combine could change that.

Meyers Leonard

Center Illinois

Height: 7'0 Weight: 240 Born: 2/27/92

Stats:

31.8 min 13.6 pts 8.2 rbs 1.9 blks

58.4 FG% 73.2 FT% 24.02 PER

Positives: size, athleticism, surprisingly skilled

Negatives: not a finished product, needs to add strength

Summary:

Meyers Leonard broke out as a sophomore at Illinois, and it is entirely possible that his stock will continue to rise into the lottery, or even top 10 status. Legitimate 7-footers with his kind of athleticism and a clue of how to play generally go early. Right now, however, he is, by most accounts, on the outside of the lottery looking in, and I'm really hope it stays that way.

When you watch Leonard play, you notice immediately how fluid his movements are for someone of his size. I think a good comparison is Javale McGee, but without the "good grief, what the hell was he thinking there?" moments. Leonard can finish at the rim as well as anyone in this draft, and he is starting to develop his post game, also, though as can be expected with a kid who just turned 20, it's still a work in progress. He shoots his free throws well, and will flash the occasional 12-15 foot jumper, which makes me think he could be potentially devastating in the pick and roll down the line. If his 13-8 averages don't wow you, keep in mind that he played in the very slow-paced Big Ten(seriously, watch Wisconsin games; I think their football team scores as much). UNC's pair of big men, Tyler Zeller and John Henson, both averaged more rebounds per game, but had worse rebound rates than Leonard.

Most of the work Leonard has to do is on the defensive end. He can block shots in bunches, as you might imagine, but there are questions out there about his motor and concentration. Indiana's Cody Zeller abused him when the two met during the college season, showing that bigs who have more than just one or two moves can give Leonard fits. He'll also need to add a little muscle. I think he is mature and intelligent enough to make these adjustments, though that obviously remains to be seen. On a personal note, apparently the main reason Leonard has come out early is because he desperately wants to help his family out financially. His father died when he was six, his mother has a debilitating injury that leaves her unable to work or afford proper medical care, and his brother is currently overseas serving in Afghanistan. This is the kind of kid who has had to grow up really fast, and shoulder responsibility most his age can't fathom.

Overall, Leonard is probably the guy I'd want Dallas to take right now, assuming he's there. Why? Well, it's all subjective, but I think he is one of only a couple of guys Dallas has a shot at with mega upside. Also, as Dallas learned last summer, the market for centers is brutal. If you plan on having a halfway-competent big man and don't want to majorly overpay, this is how you get one. You draft him. Now, Leonard is not someone who is likely to come in and be a major factor immediately, but I could see him as a backup behind a veteran starter(such as a Kaman or a Camby)where he could provide energy as be a future building block/potential Dwight Howard trade piece.

Fab Melo

Center Syracuse

Height: 7'0 Weight: 260 Born: 6/2/90

Stats:

25.4 min 7.8 pts 5.8 rbs 2.9 blks

56.6 FG% 63.3 FT% 20.40 PER

Positives: massive size, shotblocking

Negatives: very, very raw, off-court questions

Summary:

Melo is one of the better known prospects on this list. He's already been mentioned as a possible Maverick selection on this site, as well as others, and it is easy to see why. At 7'0 and somewhere in the 260-270 range, Melo has the size and defensive chops to probably be a rotation player right away. He moves fairly well for a big guy, and plays with a lot of energy, so he's not the typical college stiff who succeeds simply by being taller than everyone else. Syracuse was a dominant defensive squad with him in the lineup, and the Big East is as deep a conference as you'll find in college basketball.

So, why am I not terribly excited by him? Well, to start, he's still very raw offensively. As in, so raw I'm not sure he's ever really going to get it. His turnover rate was sky high, and he pretty much has no post game to speak of. Though he's a sophomore, he's not as young as you might think, as he'll be 22 when the draft rolls around. He did show major improvement though from his freshman campaign, as a passer and free throw shooter, as well as understanding where to be on the court, but when you look at how far it seems he has to go, there is a very real chance he will be basically a nonfactor on offense at the NBA level.

The second area of concern is that for a guy who has all the physical tools, he wasn't a dominant rebounder. He cleaned up on the offensive glass at a pretty reasonable rate, showing again that he has a solid motor, but his defensive rebounding was simply unacceptable, and as Syracuse fans know this was a problem for their team all season(they were obliterated on the boards by Ohio State in the tournament, which ended their run). One thing to consider, and maybe Mavs fans of all people should know this, is that Syracuse plays a zone defense, which often takes players out of ideal rebounding position. It is possible that this has undersold Melo's talents.

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, Fab Melo made headlines nearly all year with poor decisions unrelated to the basketball court, from an altercation with teammates after he took an ill-advised shot late in a game against UConn, to his being ruled academically ineligible for the tournament(the second stretch of games he'd missed in the season). Basketball isn't rocket science, so I won't overemphasize the grades issue. I don't think Melo is a bad kid or a troublemaker exactly, either. However, ideally in a player you'd like to see certain qualities that demonstrate a willingness and desire to not settle for simply being good, to need to get better. I am not sure Melo has these qualities, though this is a determination I am sure Dallas will make in their interview process, should they consider him at all. In the end, if Dallas does select Melo, I'll get behind it. However, right now my personal opinion is that he's too risky to take in the middle of the first round.

Quincy Miller

Small Forward Baylor

Height: 6'9 Weight: 210 Born: 11/18/92

Stats:

24.4 min 10.6 pts 4.9 rbs 1.4 asts

44.7 FG% 34.8 3P% 81.6 FT% 19.85 PER

Positives: long, versatile, multi-skilled forward

Negatives: very skinny, no one dominant attribute

Summary:

Probably the player with the most potential career path outcomes in the group I'm outlining is this man, Quincy Miller. He is the type of guy scouts make their money on; when you look at him, do you see a glass half full or half empty? I suppose that makes him a "boom or bust" guy, and it will be interesting to see where his stock goes after the combine.

Physically, you probably couldn't draw up a much better blueprint for a small forward. He is 6'9 with a reported 7'4 wing span, can handle the ball, and has a streaky but capable outside shot. He tore his ACL his senior year in high school, and at times appeared to still not be fully recovered yet, so it is possible he has more in the tank athletically. He was a highly touted recruit from Chicago and for a brief period when Perry Jones was still out, he looked like he was going to take college basketball by storm as a freshman. His season hit a bit of a speedbump when Jones came back, and he was pretty much a nonfactor in the tournament. Curiously, he had initially announced he was going to return to Baylor for his sophomore year, before changing his mind shortly after. You wonder if this means he got some information about where he might be drafted, though he wouldn't be the first kid to get bad advice on that front.

His statline suggests he is a jack of all trades, master of none type at this stage in his career. Watching him, he clearly looks most comfortable playing on the perimeter, where he might be a point-forward in the right situation. If the explosiveness doesn't come back, he has the length to maybe play the four, but if that's the case he will definitely need to add weight.

Miller is probably going to make a team look really smart or really dumb. I'm not really sure which. I definitely like his size and skill potential, but he has a long way to go, and I'm not sure I'd take the risk with him over a few of the other names on this list. He's definitely worth keeping updated on, though.

Arnett Moultrie

Power Forward Mississippi St.

Height: 6'10 Weight: 225 Born: 11/18/90

Stats:

35.8 min 16.4 pts 10.5 rbs 0.8 blks

54.9 FG% 78.0 FT% 24.7 PER

Positives: terrific all-around game, good athlete

Negatives: may need to add bulk, questions about past

Summary:

A fast-rising prospect, news circulated recently that Dallas has already worked him out personally. It's not hard to see why they are interested, as Moultrie looks like a do-it-all type big man. Texans might remember from his days at UTEP that Moultrie played outside on the perimeter way too much, but in his year off after transferring it's clear he has worked hard on his post game. He has the athleticism to score over opposing players, but can also take it outside, where he shows pretty good range, and after struggling at the free throw line at UTEP he has overcome that hurdle, as well. By the way, he's a beast on the boards.

In truth, I can't see any reason why this guy shouldn't be a lottery pick. I see a near-complete offensive game, in the ballpark of a LaMarcus Aldridge. That's not to say he doesn't have some room for improvement. Maybe it was the poor quality of teammate(who he openly called out after a five game losing streak that saw Mississippi State's promising season come crashing down), but Moultrie looked like a guy that, when he got the ball, didn't think much about passing. He could force the issue at times, and turn it over. He also didn't always seem completely engaged on defense, averaging under a block per game, which is very odd given he's big and can jump. Again, maybe it's because he had to shoulder so much of the offensive load on an otherwise mediocre squad.

The biggest knock on Moultrie definitely isn't his game, which is stout, but that it's taken him this long to get here. Moultrie had two up and down seasons at UTEP, and after coachTony Barbee left the team for Auburn, Moultrie was expected to follow him. He, instead, chose Miss. St, which is apparently still a sore subject for Barbee. What exactly happened and why is still a bit of a mystery, and I think any time a major talent transfers some eyebrows are raised, but to my knowledge I can't see any serious red flags character-wise. That's something worth keeping an eye on, though.

There are some people out there saying Moultrie could play center at the next level. I don't think that's going to happen. He has a classic power forward's body and repertoire. Even with the presence of Dirk Nowitzki, I would be very excited about the possibility of a player like this joining the Mavs. That being said, I think he has too much going for him to fall to #17.

Andrew Nicholson

Power Forward St. Bonaventure

Height: 6'9 Weight: 225 Born: 12/8/89

Stats:

30.1 min 18.5 pts 8.4 rbs 2.0 blks

57.1 FG% 43.4 3P% 77.6 FT% 31.63 PER

Positives: great inside-outside offensive game, good size

Negatives: poor competition level, inconsistent rebounder/defender

Summary:

An under the radar guy, for now anyway, is Nicholson, a four-year stud at Atlantic 10's St. Bonaventure. Hailing from Canada, Nicholson was a bit overlooked as a recruit, but won A10 Freshman of the Year honors and hasn't looked back since. As a 6'9 power forward with a solid post game and a rapidly improving jumpshot, the obvious comparison is to another A10 standout, David West. That's high praise. Nicholson is going to get a lot of push from stat-inclined analysts, for his impressive array of skills. Guys who block two shots a game and also shoot over 40% from three are rare.

Skill-wise, you could make the argument that Nicholson is farther along than West was at the same point. Even if his post game doesn't translate to the next level, Nicholson could definitely carve out a career as a stretch-4 who spreads the floor and operates in the pick and pop. Where he falls short of West, however, is as a rebounder. West was a double-double guy at Xavier, while Nicholson was barely cracking seven boards a game until his senior season. To be fair, Nicholson's rebound rate was pretty solid this year, but do you disregard the other three?

Scouts will be paying close attention to how Nicholson does in drills at the combine, where he'll be facing the best competition of his career to this point. Fair or not, where he played will be a factor in how much or little he's scrutinized. Though his numbers are, on the whole, outstanding, you wonder how much he was really challenged playing teams like Fordham, Rhode Island and Duquesne several times a year.

I like Nicholson a lot more than Justin Harper of Richmond last year, who was another Atlantic 10 power forward with a similar game. Harper was projected in the late 20's, and ended up going 32nd overall. Nicholson will probably go before that, but how much before? In the end I'm not sure if he's really someone Dallas will be looking at, but it's good to cover your bases.

Austin Rivers

Shooting Guard Duke

Height: 6'4 Weight: 199 Born: 8/1/92

Stats:

33.2 min 15.5 pts 3.4 rbs 2.1 asts

43.3 FG% 36.5 3P% 65.8 FT% 16.85 PER

Positives: playmaker, quality ballhandler, streaky shooter

Negatives: consistency, shot selection, size

Summary:

Rivers is another of what will likely be many polarizing prospects in this draft. While most of the others, like the Jones's, Jared Sullinger, and Andre Drummond will probably still go in the lottery, I think there is a chance Rivers may not and it is possible he could fall into the Mavs' range. Now, there are definitely things to like about Rivers. He was a highly touted recruit who came into a major program at Duke and immediately became the primary scorer and playmaker. He is aggressive and fearless on the court, and if you looked at his highlight reel of knee-buckling crossovers and smooth fadeaways(including maybe the play of the year against UNC), you would probably think he is a future star. Also, as most know, he is the son of Boston head coach Doc Rivers, and I don't think it's any secret that scouts love good bloodlines.

That's the good. For the bad...well, he had just the sixth best PER on his own team. His own team! I'll try not to make too much of that but it needs to be noted. What I find so odd about Rivers is that all his positives have sort of a negative backslider. He scores, but has a bit of a reputation for being selfish. He can definitely shoot, yet he made just 65% of his free throws and I don't think it's a stretch to say his shot selection needs work. He has a spectacular array of dribbling moves but turns the ball over a bit much(there's also this youtube clip). Then there's the thing I'm really concerned about: he had 1 block all year, against Penn. Between that and his poor rebound rate, I am wondering how his athleticism will translate to the next level. If he had stayed in school he could have worked on his combo guard skills a little more, but as it is I am not entirely convinced he can guard 2's. C.J McCollum lit him up for 30 in LeHigh's round 1 upset, and Rivers will face as good or better than McCollum every night in the NBA.

The most likely scenario is that Dallas won't have to make a decision on Rivers, since I imagine a team somewhere in the 12-16 range will bank on making something of his skills. Personally, I would stay away. But, maybe I'm wrong.

Terrence Ross

Shooting Guard Washington

Height: 6'6 Weight: 190 Born: 2/5/91

Stats:

31.1 min 16.4 pts 6.4 rbs 1.4 asts

45.7 FG% 37.1 3P% 77.4 FT% 20.86 PER

Positives: long, smooth, good shooter, great birthday(or birthday-ability, in Bilas-speak)

Negative: thin, not an exceptional playmaker

Summary:

Someone already covered by SB Nation Dallas, Ross is almost certainly going to be a popular mock pick for the Mavericks, a team noticeably old and slow at the wing positions. Ross, tagged by many as a breakout candidate, did just that as a sophomore, and after a bit of a up and down first couple of months, turned it on after the new year and performed very well in the NIT.

Ross has pretty much all the physical traits you could want in a 2-guard, he's tall and long, lanky but fluid, and has a quick release on a picture perfect jumpshot. The physical markers are there, as he rebounded well and averaged nearly a block a game to go along with a healthy portion of steals. If you watch his workout video it is clear that he has major potential as a scorer with his ability to shoot, run and jump.

Now, if I can respectfully disagree with SB Nation Dallas's assessment in one regard, it would be about Ross and getting to the basket. By most accounts, and certainly from my eyeball test, Ross is a good athlete who is quick and sudden. However, if a Mavs fan is looking at someone who will breakdown the defense with drives and rack up layups and free throw attempts, I'm not sure Ross is necessarily your guy. The majority of his offense came from his jumpshot, and his free throw rates were pretty pedestrian. What's more, there are some questions about his ballhandling, which, while not bad, isn't as refined as other aspects of his game. Given that he was primarily a jumpshooter, his turnover rate was maybe a tad high, or, at the very least, not something that could be pointed to as a positive. There are also questions about his playmaking and court awareness, since most of the time Ross was looking for his own shot.

At the other end of the court, Ross also might need some work. I can maybe given him a bit of a pass here, though. Washington had an unusual season; after they were expected to take over the mantle as premiere Pac-12 team from the self-destructing UCLA Bruins, they underachieved somewhat. Ross maybe took a few too many plays off, but when you look at his size, length and speed, there's no reason he can't be a plus defender in the NBA, with proper motivation.

Ross is intriguing, if imperfect. The shooting and athleticism certainly are worth mentioning, but, to be honest, I feel like this is a little bit of a mixed bag, kind of like a taller Roddy Beaubois. If you bring him in and can work on his ballhandling and understanding of what to do on the court, you could have something. Players with this kind of package have failed before, though.

Jeff Taylor

Small Forward Vanderbilt

Height: 6'7 Weight: 225 Born: 5/23/89

Stats:

32.1 min 16.5 pts 5.6 rbs 1.7 asts

49.3 FG% 42.3 3P% 60.5 FT% 24.21 PER

Positives: Good athlete, defender, can do a little bit of everything

Negatives: What you see is pretty much what you get, likely a nonstar

Summary:

This is the third member of the Vanderbilt Commodores on this list, and it's not by accident. Kevin Stallings has done a terrific job with that program, and I think all three of these guys, while not stars, have a shot at NBA careers. Taylor is probably my favorite of those three, and while #17 might be a tad high for him, I'd keep him mind without question if a trade back scenario occurs.

To start with, he is hands down the best perimeter defender on this list, and one of the top couple in this draft. For proof, check out the SEC Championship game against Kentucky, when he swallowed up Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, among others. You can count Kentucky's losses last season on two fingers, and Taylor is a big reason it wasn't just one. Taylor is 6'7, and solidly built at around 220-225. Although it hasn't always manifested in bigtime stats, Taylor is a terrific athlete and can really jump.

Earlier in his career, Taylor was known as someone who would rarely ever take an outside shot, preferring to score on cuts, offensive putbacks and transition dunks. In his senior season, however, he broke out as a shooting threat, and this is what makes him a first round possibility. He shot over 40% from three and was also dangerous with long 2's, and if that's no fluke, it could make him an ideal "3 and D" candidate at the next level; someone who defends the opponents' best perimeter player, and spots up for jumpers at the other end.

Taylor is a 4 year senior, so he's not someone with tons of upside. The most common knock on him is that he doesn't have a great in-between game, and isn't a great ballhandler or playmaker. For what it's worth, his assist rate was pretty decent, if unspectacular, and he was able to get to the line as a collegiate. He also did his part on the glass. Taylor hails from Sweden, where his father(a former NBA player who went to Texas Tech) played basketball, but moved to Hobbs, New Mexico to pursue hoop dreams in America. Taylor is intelligent and cerebral, sometimes to his own detriment, but hits me as someone who would have no trouble adjusting to NBA life.

I don't think Jeff Taylor will be a star at the next level. But, on the right team, in the right system, I think he could be a super glue-guy; someone who does all the little things and lets others take the bulk of the glory. Those are important roles to fill.

Dion Waiters

Shooting Guard Syracuse

Height: 6'4 Weight: 215 Born: 12/1/91

Stats:

24.1 min 12.6 pts 2.3 rbs 2.5 asts

47.6 FG% 36.3 3P% 72.9 FT% 26.29 PER

Positives: athletic, playmaking combo guard

Negatives: streaky shooter, where does he play?

Summary:

A solidly built, 6'4 combo guard from the Big East who can handle the ball, create for others, and drive, but may be tweener at the next level, and still has work to do on his jumpshot.

No, that's not Dominique Jones, that's Dion Waiters, the off-guard from Syracuse. Now, that comparison probably isn't going to go over great with some, but keep in mind, Jones was a great college player, a first round draft pick, and talented enough to still have a career in the NBA. At least no one is comparing him to Khalid El Amin.

Also, to be fair, Waiters has a better looking jumpshot than Jones did coming out of college, and unlike Jones was a bigtime recruit at a powerhouse basketball program. I think Waiters definitely has a role in the NBA somewhere. He can score, and really handle the ball. In fact, he had the best turnover rate of anyone on this list, and a terrific assist to turnover ratio for a two guard. This will likely spark some interest in making him play the point, but I'd shy away from that, as it almost never works(unless you're Russell Westbrook).

The book on Waiters says he's a pretty good, maybe "sneaky good" athlete. He did do well finishing inside as a 6'4 guard, but his rebounding numbers aren't stellar(maybe this really is just about that zone defense), and this may be where the combine decides if he's a borderline lottery guy or something else, because sub-6'5 guys have to be pretty special athletically to stick at the wing. If he can do that, you might have something pretty special. It's possible that this guy is the real "poor man's Dwayne Wade", instead of Jones. Still, you'd like a guard with this much talent to have shown up more in the box score than Waiters did.

Waiters wouldn't be my first, or second choice as of this second, but as names move up and down on big boards he is someone to think about. I know there will be some who are discouraged by the similarities to Jones, but just because one guy failed doesn't mean they all will.

Royce White

Power Forward Iowa St.

Height: 6'8 Weight: 250 Born: 4/10/91

Stats:

31.5 min 13.4 pts 9.3 rbs 5.0 asts

53.4 FG% 33.3 3P% 49.8 FT% 22.05 PER

Positives: highly skilled point forward

Negatives: conditioning, personal issues

Summary:

The Iowa State Cyclones made a surprising run in the NCAA tournament, beating the defending champs in the 2nd round before losing to the eventual champs in the Sweet Sixteen. Royce White, in his first taste of college basketball, led that team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals during the regular season.

So...top 5 pick, right?

This is a touchy subject, and I really don't want to be insensitive, but I think it's fair to say that the reason Royce White won't be a top 10 pick, and may slip to outside the top 20, is because of some fairly serious off-court issues, including to but not limited to a shoplifting case that got him kicked off the Minnesota basketball team, and the fact that he has been diagnosed with anxiety disorder.

How severe is the latter? I'm honestly not sure. I know individuals who suffer from similar problems, and it is no small matter for them. The story goes that, after being kicked off Minnesota, White was set to transfer to Baylor, but didn't because of a crippling fear of flying that prevented him from boarding the plane and subsequently led him to choose Iowa State instead. That, to me, sounds fairly severe. I mean, NBA players fly A LOT. They pretty much have to.

Getting away from that area, I'll focus on what White can do on the court, which is plenty. White would initiate the offense for the Cyclones, and displayed tremendous skill as a ballhandler and passer for a guy his size. When he needed to go inside, he was more than capable of doing that, as well, rebounding and finishing in the paint the way you'd expect someone at around 260 pounds to.

White did have some trouble shooting the ball from the free throw line, and if his NBA future is on the perimeter he may need to shed some lb's, but overall, he can really play. He is 21 already, and maybe not a premiere athlete, but with his skill level I don't think he'll be hurt much by that. I've heard the Anthony Mason comparison and I think it's very apt.

Now, would I take him with the #17 pick? I just don't know. Put a gun to my head and I'd probably say no, and I really don't mean offense when I say this, but I'm just not sure if I could trust a player like this to be there for my team. Then again, I don't know him personally at all, so who asked me? This is why I'm glad I'm not a GM, because if you take someone like this high and miss, everyone wants you fired. Whoever takes him hopefully has the right environment and has done their homework on him, so he can mature and flourish as a player and a person.

Dirk Nowitzki Gets 12th Consecutive All-NBA Team Honors

2012-05-24T18:40:32Z

We're biased. Totally. But it's always nice when the league recognizes the hard work and dedication of the Big German. That's why we're pleased as punch that Dirk Nowitzki has been named to the 3rd team All-NBA. This marks the 12th season IN A ROW that Dirty has made the list in some form or another. The only other dude to join him the past 12 years is Kobe Bryant.

According to a tweet from Followeezy, this is the third time Dirk has made the third team. He was named to the second team 5 times and the first team 4 times.

Ever humble, Dirk said this:

"It is an honor to make the All-NBA team again," Nowitzki said in a statement released by the team. "To be named among the best players in this league is always still very humbling for me. I also appreciate the opportunity to represent my teammates and the Mavericks organization on this list."

Oddly enough, he and Blake Griffin were the only two players from any of the three All-NBA teams to not receive a single first-place vote.

What's up with that?

MMB Top 10: Performances, Part Two

2012-05-24T16:38:05Z

So for those of you who missed out on Part One, go check it out now. Here, we'll go down and list the 5th through 1st best individual performances by Mavericks this season. Spoiler alert: there's a lot of Dirk in this one.

5. Dirk Nowitzki against Denver, 3/19/12

Statline: 33 points, 12/19 FG, 3/4 3PT, 6/8 FT, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, a block

Video highlights

With eighteen points, six rebounds and six assists, the Dirk trip-dub alert was in full effect at halftime. Unfortunately, it was not in the works, but he still ended up with a dominant double-double. The Mavericks made a clear effort to run the offense through Dirk, and when he was hitting twisting, turning jumpers over outstretched hands, he was throwing a crisp pass to an open teammate to beat the double. Look no further than Brandan Wright's fifteen points on 7/9 shooting to see just how big of an impact Dirk was opening up the floor. While a triple double would have got headlines, Dirk's calculated destruction of Denver's defense was just as worthy without ten assists.

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4. Delonte West and Vince Carter against Phoenix, 1/30/12

West Statline: 25 points, 9/12 FG, 5/6 3PT, 2/2 FT, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals

Carter Statline: 21 points, 8/13 FG, 5/7 3PT, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, no turnovers

Video highlights

So yeah, I cheated a little, but I just couldn't separate these two. Something had to go right offensively on the night the Mavericks scored their season-high in points. If Dirk only scored ten points, then things had to have gone nearly perfect. On this evening in Phoenix, West and Carter combined for a near perfect performance. It was not quite the Terry/Stojakovic show of the 2011 Finals run, but together the two teammates combined for 17/25 shooting from the floor and 10/13 from deep. Obviously, their lights out shooting will take center stage, but the two players also dished out a combined ten assists along with four steals, completing one of the most authoritative beat downs of the year.

3. Dirk Nowitzki against Houston, 4/18/12

Statline: 35 points, 10/18 FG, 3/4 3PT, 12/12 FT, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, no turnovers

Video highlights

The impressive statline becomes incredible when you realize that 21 of the 35 points scored were dropped on Houston in the final frame. Trailing by six entering that last quarter, Dirk delivered again, each bucket destroying Houston's will to win just a little more than the last. At the time, this was a crucial game in regards to playoff positioning, so Dirk turned in a performance just a huge as the game itself.

2. Rodrigue Beaubois against Utah, 1/27/12

Statline: 36 minutes, 22 points, 9/15 FG, 3/5 3PT, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, a steal, 4 blocks, 2 turnovers

Video highlights, thanks to our very own j0shi

This is the reason why I wince just a little bit when I hear Roddy's name being thrown around as completely expendable trade bait, something I'm guilty of as well. As inconsistent as he has been all three of his years as a Maverick, he is still capable of this, a game where he dominates across the board and is easily the best player on the floor for stretches at a time. Against Utah, he showed everything in his arsenal. He got to the rim, finished around shot blockers, made excellent off-ball cuts, set up teammates, started the break, and imposed stifling defense on both his man and when he helped. More importantly, he did not foul excessively, was not turnover prone despite long stretches as the sole ball handler, and did not settle for jump shots (hitting the ones that did come in rhythm of the offense). The Beaubois that was seen in Utah could be a force among this league, if he can become consistent with it.

1. Dirk Nowitzki against Utah, 3/3/12

Statline: 29 minutes, 40 points, 14/21 FG, 3-8 3PT, 9-10 FT, 6 rebounds, a steal

Video highlights

Forty points for the big German, but it easily could have been 50+ if it had been needed. He scored thirteen straight in the 2nd quarter, going to the bench early in the third as the Mavericks commanded a double digit, and would have been content to crack jokes with Brian Cardinal if not for a Utah rally that forced the sweats off half way through the 4th. Dirk made eleven of his thirteen two point attempts and had a four point play. This is way Dirk is one of the scariest shooters to ever play the game of basketball, why he's a first ballot Hall of Famer, why people say he revolutionized the PF position, and why he was able to take the Mavericks on his back to bring the team their first championship trophy. He's special.

Next week, the look for MMB Top 10 to delve into the best games of the 2011-12 season. Maybe a bonus segment listing the worst 5 games, too, because I seem to remember teams hitting buzzer beaters against us like a billion zillion times. So there's that. Also, click the button up at the top to follow me on Twitter!

The Kobe That We Used To Know

2012-05-24T16:32:30Z

The Kobe That We Used To Know

This doesn't really relate to the Mavericks, but it's funny and you should watch it.

A Small Forward Look

2012-05-24T13:55:00Z

Editor's Note: Front-paged as a continuing series. Enjoy!

This is my next post in the series on the Mavs' free agent options in 2012. I've already covered centers, point guards, and shooting guards, so this time I'll be going over our options at small forward.

In the 2011-12 season, the Mavs started Shawn Marion at small forward, with Vince Carter and Lamar Odom getting spot minutes there when Marion sat down. While Marion had an exceptional year defensively, including several lock-down efforts against all-world offensive talents like Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant, and rebounded more than he ever has in Dallas (7.4 a game), he struggled mightily on offense, managing only 10.6 points-per-game on 44.6% shooting, some of the lowest numbers of his career. The usual array of post hooks, bankers, and peculiar flip shots didn't seem to be nearly as effective for Marion as they were in 2011, and his near-inability to make outside jump shots didn't help either.

The unrelenting 66-game schedule, combined with the loss of solid perimeter defender DeShawn Stevenson, undoubtedly tired him greatly. Due to Jason Kidd's injuries and frequent DNP's, Marion was often asked to check point guards and even some power forwards, leaving him with little spare energy to expend offensively -- a really bad situation for a player who relies heavily on putbacks, offensive rebounds, and physical post play, all of which require a lot of energy.

More after the jump...

Carter had a few notable performances at small forward (usually alongside a backcourt some combination of West/Kidd/Terry). This lineup helped offensive floor spacing because Carter is a good jump shooter, but it was prone to defensive mismatches at the 2 and 3 slots since Carter is not much of a defender and Delonte West is undersized for a 2-guard, and hence not in a good position to check elite scorers like Bryant and Durant. Odom, on the other hand, was pretty much hopeless regardless of what position he played. He usually received some minutes at small forward alongside Dirk Nowitzki, but never appeared comfortable (in fairness, he had only rarely played SF for the Lakers -- usually playing the 4 alongside Bynum or Gasol) or productive.

All in all, the Mavs got decent production out of the small forward slot with Marion and Carter, and it doesn't appear to be nearly as big a need as point guard or center, or even shooting guard. But if the Mavs choose to move Shawn Marion in a trade this summer -- a very real possibility -- then it suddenly becomes pretty important.

Here's a look at the small forwards available on the open market.

Tier 1 -- Above-average to quality starter

1. Nicolas Batum. Batum is unquestionably the most coveted free agent small forward on the market, and it's pretty clear why. He's a very long and athletic player who has shown great year-by-year improvement in his 4 seasons along with an extremely versatile skill set.

Batum has the ability to drive and slash to the hoop, hit jump shots at a good clip (and he's 45% from the field), make three-pointers (around 39%), and utilize his length to play good team defense. On top of all that, he's only 23 and appears to have a lot more room to mature as a player.

In terms of money, I expect Batum to command around $8-$10 million. That almost certainly puts him out of the Mavs' price range if Deron Williams is Plan A. Batum is a restricted free agent, and his agent has put out some pretty strong statements about his impending free agency, even saying, "The first good offer we get, we're going with it. We're not waiting for anything." That doesn't sound very good for the Blazers' prospects of retaining him since they would only have 72 hours to match any offer sheet (as per the new CBA rules) and they have a plethora of decisions to make on how to improve their team this summer.

Batum can be a very good starter on a great team, but I'm not sure he will ever ascend to an All-Star level talent, so I would expect the Mavs to pass here and leave it to some other team to overpay him.

2. Gerald Wallace. Wallace is a soon-to-be-30 swingman who is good for around 13-16 points and 6-8 rebounds a game. He's known as a hard-nosed, reliable, and professional player -- a rep that's backed up by his relatively consistent production despite a few changes in scenery. He was most recently dealt to the now-Brooklyn Nets for Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a top-3 protected lottery pick, presumably in a misguided attempt to show Deron Williams they're serious about improving the team in the short-term.

Wallace has reached his ceiling a few years ago, but he's still physically strong, a very solid perimeter defender (garnering First-Team All-Defense honors in 2010), and a good offensive player -- he can slash well and finish in the paint, and has historically shot well from the field (47.3% for his career).

This summer, Wallace has a chance to opt into the last year of his deal for $9.5 million if he notifies the Nets by June 13. It's widely expected that he will decline this option and become an unrestricted free agent (due to the financial security of a long-term deal), but Nets GM Billy King has still expressed interest in re-signing Wallace this summer to a multi-year deal. King could technically try and extend Wallace right now for two more years, but only at $9.5 million per year, so Wallace would likely wait and try for a better offer in free agency.

To me, this is kind of hilarious. The Nets made the absolutely boneheaded move of trading away their lottery pick (they have exactly a 25.2% chance of retaining it) and now are forced to probably overpay Wallace this summer so it doesn't look like they did that for nothing (unless David Stern rigs the lottery and gives them Anthony Davis, which is another story). Wallace is a solid player, but he's not worth a top-3 pick, especially when that could be one of their biggest assets in trading for Dwight Howard. It's pretty doubtful Wallace will be worth his next contract and I'm not sure he's the type of player that would sway Deron Williams into re-signing, but maybe Prokhorov and Billy King know more than I do. Again -- doubtful.

Tier 2 -- Wild Card

Jeff Green. I originally had felt Green should be in Tier 1, but his season-ending aortic aneurysm has led me to wonder about what kind of player he'll be when he gets back. Even before that happened, though, Green was adjusting to a bench role with the Celtics, averaging around 23 minutes when he had seen 37 in Oklahoma City. His totals understandably went down, but his per-48-minutes statistics didn't really waver.

His numbers look pretty good. In OKC he averaged around 15 points on 44% shooting with 5.5 rebounds. But I still think he tends to get a little overrated due to his prototypical size and athleticism and mere association with Durant and Westbrook on that upstart Thunder team. Green is certainly not average-quality, but he appears to lack a signature skill or role to fill on a really good team.

The Thunder, at the time of his trade to Boston, were choosing between sending him or James Harden to the Celtics. They smartly, of course, chose to keep Harden, but at the time it was a legitimate debate. Since then, Harden has progressed into an elite shooting guard and propelled the Thunder to a second-straight Western Conference Finals, while Green (through no fault of his own, really) just hasn't improved as a player, even when he was healthy.

Green will be an unrestricted free agent this summer because the Celtics withdrew his qualifying offer and voided his one-year $9 million contract due to his medical issues. I can't see Green making that kind of green (sorry) this summer, especially coming back from a serious heart issue, but I wish him the best in getting his career back on track and overcoming his setback. It's hard to gauge what the market price for him will be, but if he's cheap enough, I would not be surprised to see the Mavs swoop in and give him a chance to prove himself on a 1-year deal (a la Delonte West).

Tier 3 -- Good rotation player

1. Grant Hill. Hill is an old man, basically the small forward version of Jason Kidd. The 39-year-old played around 28 minutes a game for the Suns this year, but had career-low numbers in basically every category. He's still not a bad player by any stretch, but it's clear he's on the way out.

In particular, his body didn't hold up great this year and that will be concerning for potential suitors. That may have been partly a function of the shortened season, but after playing 82, 81, and 80 games the previous 3 seasons, the vaunted Phoenix Suns training staff could only squeeze 49 games out of him this year.

Hill will likely get a 1-year veteran's minimum deal, and I think he would be okay with that. There has been a lot of speculation that he will try to go wherever Steve Nash goes because they've grown close over the last several years and might contemplate retiring together. I don't see the Mavs being interested -- they need to focus on getting younger.

2. Matt Barnes. Barnes is a 32-year-old who made $1.9 million coming off the bench to provide energy, defense, and rebounding for the Lakers this year. He's also well-known to Dallas fans for his part in the 2007 Golden State series and his claim in 2011 that to beat the Mavs, all you gotta do is "punk 'em" and they'll back down.

I'm not going to lie -- I've always thought of Barnes as a real shady, douchey character. But I would like it if the Mavs signed him. He's very much like DeShawn Stevenson in that he's got tattoos, he brings a certain thug quality and edginess to the team (he's not a "milk drinker" as Carlisle would say), and he will probably be pretty cheap since the Lakers went out in bad fashion.

He's not quite as good a perimeter defender as Stevenson and he's merely a decent three-point shooter (around 33% for his career), but he's a very good rebounder (5.5 a game) and could take some of the load off Shawn Marion's shoulders.

3. Andres Nocioni. Nocioni is an interesting 32-year-old Argentine player who used to be quite awesome for the Chicago Bulls, but has seen a big drop-off in his game since injuries (mainly knee tendinitis) and team changes (to the Kings and Sixers) stalled his career. I don't know who reported this, but there's a perception that Rick Carlisle is a huge fan of Nocioni's game and would be interested in acquiring him. These rumors ramped up around March of this year when Nocioni was waived, but nothing materialized.

Personally, I don't think Nocioni has much left in the tank, but I've given him the benefit of the doubt by putting him in this Tier, I guess. He hasn't had a solid year since 2008, when he averaged 11.4 ppg and 4.8 rpg on 42.7% from the field and a great 40% from three. If he can return to the player he was in Chicago, he would be an incredible addition, but that seems like a long shot and the Mavs are already trying to rehabilitate one swingman next year (Kelenna Azubuike) so I think they should and will pass.

4. Steve Novak. Novak is a three-point extraordinaire who really should thank Jeremy Lin for every penny he makes for the rest of his career. A career 43.6% three-point shooter, he inexplicably bounced around for the last few years (including brief stops in both Dallas and San Antonio) despite eye-popping numbers -- like 75% three-point shooting in Dallas and 54.8% in San Antonio. It's astounding to me that 2 of the top franchises would let a shooter like that slip away unnoticed, but it appears he just never really was given an extended opportunity as a role player.

He got that this year, and really flourished and gained publicity as a key scorer (benefiting greatly from Lin's dribble penetration) for the Linsanity-era Knicks of February 2012. He continued to contribute and shoot the lights out for the rest of the season as he shot an unholy 47.2% from three on the year. Quite simply, this year, he was the best spot-up three-point shooter in the game, bar none.

Novak has expressed interest in returning to the Knicks this year, but he will no doubt have countless suitors as an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Knicks are also a bit limited in the type of offer they can make to Novak since they will probably try to re-sign both Lin (probably for the mid-level exception) and Landry Fields (as I noted in the shooting guard post, Fields is eligible for the Early Bird exception, which allows the Knicks to sign him for up to the mid-level exception -- a figure which other teams can't exceed -- and still leave open their mid-level exception to re-sign Lin or another free agent). This would leave open the Knicks' bi-annual exception, which would be worth around $1.98 million next season.

Exceeding that might be a little steep for the Mavs, who would probably only expect Novak to play (at most) 20 minutes and shoot threes. But you can never have too many shooters on a great team, a fact the Mavs know very well given their success in 2011 and the Spurs' success with a similar approach this season.

In the end, I think the Mavs will only be players for the Tier 3 guys, of whom I like Barnes and Novak the most. There are any number of unforeseeable trades and draft picks that could also yield a quality small forward, but those possibilities will become clearer as the summer moves forward.

Once again, thanks for reading for this long and I hope you enjoyed it. My post on power forwards should be forthcoming within the next few days.

I will post it on here as a FanPost, but you can also read it at my new blog The Dirkus Circus -- http://thedirkuscircus.wordpress.com/

It's Not Time To Panic About Deron/ Maybe It's Always Been Time to Panic About Deron

2012-05-23T22:08:02Z

As you can read below, a couple of articles came out today, including this one by Royce Young and this one by Sam Amick , quoting an anonymous source who is pretty sure Deron wants to stay in Brooklyn, and that the Lakers are on the list, too. Should you believe this anonymous source?

You should not. We know this because we all scrupulously adhere to the dictum that insanity is to do the same thing over again and expect a different result. We remember anonymous and not-anonymous sources telling us where LeBron was going two years ago, too. This is not real news.

That doesn’t mean it’s useless.

The Mavericks lost to the Nets this year. They did it because Brook Lopez, recently returned from injury, shortly going back to injury, scored 9 million points on Not-Tyson-Chandler. So do I believe that Deron thinks, as the source was quoted as saying, that there’s no "longevity" in Dallas?

Of course I believe that Deron has that on his mind. Because Deron Williams is a person and has eyes. You could plausibly make the argument that the Nets, with Deron, Lopez, Gerald Wallace, a draft pick that is potentially very high, and the ability to offer guys like Kris Humphries and Gerald Green more money than everyone else (I am aware that this is not exactly Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), are significantly likely to have a brighter future than the Mavericks who don’t actually want a single player on their roster besides Dirk.

On the other hand, you don’t have to make an argument at all, you can simply say 1) The Mavs, struggle as they did, were much better than the Nets last year and 2)Of course the Mavs have longevity—if they sign Deron Williams. If Steve Nash (38) and Tim Duncan(36) are still playing at a high level, tell me why Dirk (33) can’t be when Deron Williams finishes his contract in 4 years? Deron Williams couldn’t tell you either.

Here are the facts and the only thing that matters until July 1^st:

---The Mavericks, no matter what they do, will not have an exorbitant amount of cap space next year. As pointed out in a terrific article by Jammasterj14 yesterday, even if the Mavs waive Haywood and trade Lamar, they will only have something like 18-20 mil in cap space and Deron Williams will be just over 17 mil. The cap COULD be abnormally high this year. That would be very good news for the Mavs.

---People say trades will help clear cap space, but do not bet on it. Any trades the Mavs make will have to be like the Corey Brewer and Rudy Fernandez for literally nothing trade last year—they will only make the Mavericks worse in the short term. And with only Dirk, Marion, Roddy, DoJo, Azubuike, Wright and Vince on the roster for next year they are barely, and I mean barely, hanging on to a package that could entice anybody.They COULD trade Shawn Marion, whose contract, unfortunately for him and the Mavericks, runs through 2014. But, as noted, they couldn't trade him for anybody they'd owe money, and they're not selling Deron on Dirk, Roddo, Dojo, Azubuike, Wright and Vince. They're also not D-ing anybody up.

---They Mavericks have a decent draft pick this year for the first time in a while. We'll see what they do with it--I'm hoping for a center.

---The difference between the Mavericks and the Heat, for those of you harboring hopes of Dwight Howard, is a number, 5 million dollars, and a year, 2013-2014. When LeBron, Wade and Bosh became Heatles, they were earlier in their careers than Dirk is currently, so eligible for different contracts, so when they took less money it was in the neighborhood of 15 mil each, while when Dirk took less money it was in the neighborhood of 20 mil. So, 5 mil. It’s not quite that much, but it’s close. You add that to the fact that the cap gets really punitive in 2013-2014 and it does not look good for the Mavs. It does not, in fact, look good for anybody with old (and expensive) stars.

---Free Agency is both the best and worst way to improve your team. It is the only way to get players in their prime without giving something up. However, unlike drafting and trading, where the players you get are immediately yours and don’t get a say in the matter, FAs can be wined or dined by anybody. The Nets can offer more money, more years. If they get a really high draft pick—the pick they gave Portland is top 3 protected—they’re going to be able to offer a really enticing package. And just so you know, if they don’t, then Portland has whatever draft pick they DID get, LaMarcus Aldridge, and a lot of cap space, so if you’re looking for a dark horse, there it is.

---Finally, despite all the bad news, this is the second year in a row that maybe the top free agent on the market is at least INTERESTED in Dallas SPECIFICALLY, last year being Tyson Chandler. So keep your hopes up and your eyes open. Money does not favor the Mavs. Organization, Dirk, even recent success do. It'll depend on how much Deron believes in the Mavericks' future, and what they can promise him this year and next--and nothing else.

There is no news that is going to be news before July 1^st, other than who drafts where, but there’s going to be a lot of news that sounds like it.

Source: Deron Williams Has Discouraging Words For Mavericks Fans

2012-05-23T20:01:13Z

(SB Nation Dallas, Jonathan Tjarks) With the start of NBA free agency still over a month away, it's far too early to panic about the Dallas Mavericks off-season, but this Deron Williams quote in a recent SI.com piece by Sam Amick can't make Mavericks fans feel too good:

The source said Williams' preference, however, is for the Nets to improve the roster sufficiently enough that he can feel good about staying put rather than fear a repeat of this season, when they finished 22-44. As for Dallas, which sacrificed its best chance to defend the title by preserving salary-cap space last summer in anticipation of this free-agent class, the source said of the Mavericks: "There's no longevity there." If owner Mark Cuban can clear enough space to sign a worthy sidekick for Williams, though, then maybe he'd join his hometown team after all.

That was always the concern with letting Tyson Chandler walk last season, as now the only thing the Mavericks have to offer free agents is the chance to play with the 34-year old Dirk Nowitzki.

The last sentence, though, is probably the kicker: with the Miami Heat beginning the super-team era, Williams likely sees playing with Dwight Howard as his best chance of being relevant over the next five seasons.

If Dallas can offer him that opportunity, he'd likely jump at the chance, but just a home-town team push isn't going to be enough.

Shawn Marion Isn't on One of the Two NBA All-Defensive Teams and That's a Damn Shame

2012-05-23T19:15:30Z

I'm not sure what these "voters" were watching. Maybe just passing through their TV and caught a few SportsCenter highlights. Maybe they read a few articles in Sports Illustrated. I don't know. I do know if they watched more than a handful of Dallas Maverick games, they would know Shawn Marion was more than worthy enough for making one of the NBA's All-Defensive teams.

But he didn't. In fact, he only got three votes. Which was only two more than Carlos Boozer.

....

...

OK, I'm back. Just had to go ram my face into a brick wall for five minutes.

Marion deserved a spot on one of those teams and it isn't even that close. Marion was versitile all year, guarding four different positions in any given game. This is proved by MySynergySports as Marion never gave up a field goal percentage higher than 38.2 in any situatuion. That includes isolations, pick and roll ball handler, post-ups, pick and roll roll man, spot-ups, off screens and hand offs. Nothing higher than 38.2 percent field goal percentage, against Marion.

He also defended the big stars well. Kevin Durant shot 44 percent against the Mavericks this year (with also two miserable games in their playoff series) all with Marion guarding him. Durant's field-goal percentage against the Mavericks was his worst percentage against any team he faced at least four times this season.

Chris Paul, who most writers thought should have finished second in MVP voting, averaged 12 points per game on 36.4 percent shooting. That 12 points per game was Paul's lowest scoring average against a Western Conference opponent this season. Mainly due to Marion.

Kobe Bryant averaged 19.7 points per game on 40 percent shooting against Dallas this season, about eight points lower than his season average.

But Marion wasn't just doing it against the stars. The Dallas defense lost its anchor when Tyson Chandler went to the Knicks. But the Mavericks actually improved on defense this year. By about three points on their defensive efficiency according to hoopdata.com. (Yes, scoring was down across the board this year, but still, it's impressive). A lot of that can be credited to Marion, who always made the right rotation and always guarded whoever Rick Carlisle needed him too. And he also played with rather lousy centers in Brendan Haywood, Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright.

In reality, the Mavericks failed this year because of an offense that could never find a groove. But the national perception was no Chandler = no defense. In fact, Dallas might have missed Chandler more on the offensive end this season than on the defensive, but that's another story for another time.

Shawn Marion deserved a spot on one of those two defensive teams. It's a damn shame.

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