McCovey Chronicles

Miguel Cabrera joins Tigers' trade talks

2009-11-24T17:07:56Z

Miguel Cabrera joins Tigers' trade talks

He's like John Belushi crossed with Albert Pujols. And he turns 27 in April. If only he were more consistent...

I, for one, think a package that starts with Alderson, Villalona, and Barnes has a good chance to land Cabrera.

Offseason Fears, Vol. MCMVII

2009-11-23T19:18:27Z

I'm almost okay with the Giants acquiring another second baseman and moving Freddy Sanchez to third. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to pay a bunch of money for a player whose worth is completely intertwined with his ability to play a good defensive second base, but at least I wouldn't have to wince when 75% of the infield came up to the plate. The idea doesn't make a lick of sense, but I could file it under "acceptable silliness" if the team is improved as a result.

I'm almost okay with Aaron Rowand starting in center. Well, I'd better be okay with it, 'cause he's there for the next several decades, until we can draft Andrew McCutchen, Jr. Rowand's defense and offense are average. Rowand is a big ball of average. That's not just a gut feeling: FanGraphs ranked him third on their list of "Average-est Position Players of 2009." That's pretty danged average. It's easy to forget the month-long hot streaks that sustain Rowand, especially when he's in he middle of his "Imma gonna sit on a fastball in this 0-2 count and hit a home ru...slider?!?! Why, the nerve!" phases, but he does have stretches of competent hitting. Seriously. Look it up. Hopefully, he doesn't completely fall off an age-related cliff next year.

I'm almost okay with a short-term contract to an old timer. Johnny Damon wants something close to Bobby Abreu's deal -- two years, $19M. That's Edgar Renteria money! Who does Damon think he is? Still my biggest problem with the Zito and Rowand contracts wasn't the yearly amount; it was the length of the deals. A high-priced, short-term deal to Renteria is making a difference as to whom the Giants are pursuing this offseason, but at least it's over soon. While I hate the result, I still stand by the logic behind the Renteria signing. Damon, even with his noodle arm, would be a pretty good player for a team trying to win in the short-term, and he wouldn't be around long enough to affect long-term roster decisions.

I am not okay with Eugenio Velez starting. With Bengie Molina almost certain to go somewhere else, this is my new windmill. Velez in the starting lineup means that the Giants:

do not care about past minor league performance
truly have no idea what kind of offense is usually provided by a corner outfielder
have proven the capacity to overreact to an unsustainable streak of 100 hot at-bats
wouldn't know a legitimate building block if he streaked the front office
are telling the world that it's more important to have a fast player lead off than it is to have a player with an acceptable on-base percentage
really, truly have no idea just how bad Velez is against left-handed pitchers.

That last point is debatable, as Velez is usually mentioned in concert with Andres Torres, but Velez is so, so, so bad from the right side that he's barely capable of being on a major league roster. As a 25th man on a roster, he's useful. He's fast (though not an especially good baserunner), he has a little pop, and he offers positional flexibility.

As a leadoff hitter and starting corner outfielder, he's a debacle. He offends me as a fan of a team that knows they need to improve offensively. It's like being snowed in at a house with a broken heater and watching someone leave the fridge door open in an attempt to solve the problem. It's not going to make things that much worse, but it sure as hell isn't going to help.

No. Just no. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Torrealba, who turned down a two-year, $4.5-million deal from the Rockies, is expected to receive...

2009-11-23T06:40:52Z

Torrealba, who turned down a two-year, $4.5-million deal from the Rockies, is expected to receive an offer soon from the clubs that have called about him, including one from the NL West. I haven’t pinned down the NL West team, but the Giants make a lot of sense since they are expected to lose Bengie Molina and need someone they can trust if prospect Buster Posey needs more Triple-A seasoning.

It kind of makes sense; it kind of scares me.

Giants out on Bay, Holliday -- Is that a bad thing?

2009-11-20T23:26:33Z

To no one's surprise...

-Q: Holliday and Bay are the big names… Have you gauged their possible interest? Do you think either of those guys would have genuine interest in coming to the Giants?
-SABEAN: We have not. I don’t think that they would have genuine interest based on the field that they’re going to be involved in. Why would they?

I think Sabean's a little cheektender from when he pursued Gary Matthews, Juan Pierre, Alfonso Soriano, and Carlos Lee, offered them tons of cash, and watched them use the Giants' offer as leverage. But there are a couple of different ways to take the "Why would they?" line:

a. San Francisco is a smelly town with smelly people and I hate it and they would too because it smells, or...

b. Teams with deep pockets are going to be after those two, and the Giants are not going to get into a fiscal tinkling match with those teams.

I'm, uh, going to guess it's "b." Bay and Holliday are the elite free agents of this class. They're going to be paid like elite players. And the Giants, yet again, are going to choose not to go after the elite players of a free agency class. At first glance, this would appear to be the Geddina Lee philosophy.

Geddina Lee philosophy -- n. -- A belief that it's better to sleep with ten women who look like Geddy Lee rather than sleep with one woman who looks like Charlize Theron

And, brother, that's not a good philosophy. Except that it's a stretch to call Bay and Holliday elite players -- they're just the best of the available lot. Look back at that list of unrequited free agent love: Gary Matthews, Jr. and Juan Pierre were obvious chunks of pyrite, and it's shameful that Sabean considered either of them. But Lee and Soriano are interesting to remember.

Lee was an offense-first left fielder who was a bit of an airship disaster in the field, and who didn't project to age well. Soriano was a guy who had just turned 30, was an average fielder, and hit like an All-Star. Which is all to say: Lee's kind of a rough comp for Bay, and Soriano is kind of a rough comp for Holliday. If you're interested in either Lee or Soriano, you can get both of them for a game-used Lance Niekro wristband. If you're interested in Bay or Holliday, you can hold onto the wristband and just pony up about $100M or so, crossing your fingers that they don't turn into Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano.

That's kind of unfair, as Lee was never the walking machine that Bay was, and Soriano was never as patient as Holliday is. And Lee can still hit a little, so it isn't fair to hold him up as a disaster of a deal. But the point remains: Be careful with your definition of "elite" free agents. Over the past ten years, I count only three players who made sense for $100M+ contracts: A 28-year-old Vladimir Guerrero, a 27-year-old Carlos Beltran, and a 25-year-old Alex Rodriguez. Those are players to build around, to whom you commit a quarter of your payroll. Those are the players you get on your team for not pursuing.

All things being equal, I would like Matt Holliday on the Giants. But if he's going to be paid like a elite hitter by a team with crazy-deep pockets, and the Giants aren't willing to pay elite money, I'm not going to blame them. Now, should the Giants really be a $100M payroll kind of team, or should they be pushing $120M or $140M? That's a post for another time, though I suspect it's the latter. If it's the former, though, Holliday and Bay are huge risks, and I can't fault the Giants for not wanting to take on the commitments.

Why don't wins count anymore? - STLtoday.com

2009-11-20T17:59:17Z

Why don't wins count anymore? - STLtoday.com

"If won-loss records are suddenly obsolete, why do we bother to keep the stat?"

Ding ding ding. And if 8-tracks are suddenly obsolete, why does "Close to the Edge" sound so sweet in my Vega?

Stats and the Cy Young

2009-11-20T00:27:51Z

Stats are good. I’m not even referring just to the advanced statistical arguments that support Tim Lincecum’s Cy Young, either. It’s good that there is a record of events to which to refer while doing research. Old-timers can’t argue; wins, losses, and runs batted in are stats. They’re a record of events. The new school and old school might disagree with what stats are important – you say RBI, I say OBP, etc. – but there isn’t a baseball fan alive who claims that player evaluation is better without stats.

Stats are good because the human brain is a goofy little thing built to emphasize anecdotal information and subjective opinions because those are what helped our ancestors avoid tiger attacks and poisonous mushrooms long enough to have sex. Look it up. Since we don’t have to avoid tigers so much these days, we can afford to spend our time debating dippy trivialities like the Cy Young Award, and we aren’t limited by the anecdotal or the subjective.

So when someone writes that a player shouldn’t win the MVP or Cy Young, or get a Hall of Fame vote, because a player didn’t make the writer feel a certain way, it’s hard to take that opinion seriously. "He just didn’t scream ‘Hall of Fame’ to me." Don’t care. I don’t know what melody a true Hall of Fame career sings as it tap dances on your buttocks, and I daresay that shouldn’t be the final word on the subject. Give me evidence. Don’t give me feelings.

Otherwise, you get things like this:

One player hadn't faced Lincecum—"lucky break," he said—but he felt that Lincecum looked more hittable. "I'm still convinced that deception is a big part of what Lincecum does," another said, "and that unless there's a new wrinkle, people are starting to figure him out. He's still good, his [stuff] is still good, but comparing him to Wainwright? Wainwright was just a shutdown guy this year."

Looked more hittable. Lincecum looked more hittable. He wasn’t more hittable. He allowed fewer hits per nine innings than either Wainwright or Carpenter. But he looked more hittable. Right. Oh, and the hitters are starting to figure him out. You can tell because Lincecum allowed fewer baserunners than in 2008, a year in which he also won the Cy Young.

Also, Wainwright was just a shutdown guy this year. There’s no comparison. Other than the number of baserunners and runs allowed, that is. But those are just trivial details. Wainwright was just a shutdown guy this year. You can’t argue with that position because of the "just" that the unnamed player uses. It makes the statement unassailable. So when Lincecum had one of those complete game, 10+ strikeout outings, it wasn’t a shutdown performance because a player who didn’t hit against him says so.

Moving along from Carroll’s unnamed source, we shouldn’t forget, too, that Lincecum didn’t pitch well down the stretch. That's another popular mark against Lincecum. I mean, it isn’t as if he pitched well in a crucial divisional matchup late in the season against an opposing team’s ace. Wait, I remember that game. Hey, I guess that makes it an anecdote. And I remember thinking, hot damn, this guy is the best pitcher in the world right now. So I guess that's a feeling. Awesome. I can play this game too.

The difference between Lincecum, Carpenter, and Wainwright wasn’t that great. Reasonable arguments could have been made for all three. It wouldn’t have been a travesty if Carpenter or Wainwright had won – far from it. But I don’t want "Lincecum didn’t have the je ne sais quoi that I want from my ace" as the reasonable argument. I don’t want "Lincecum seemed like he wasn’t as good." I don’t want "Lincecum didn’t gut it out late in the season when the CHIPS WERE DOWN and the SEASON WAS ON THE LINE." Give me stats. Then we can debate what a pitcher’s win/loss total really means. But I can’t debate the mythology someone’s created about what’s important to the game of baseball. I can work with stats. Stats are good.

Tim Lincecum Wins Cy Young

2009-11-19T19:01:12Z

More photos » by Ben Margot - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Thank you, Royals, Rockies, Rays, Pirates, Mariners, Tigers, Dodgers, Reds, and Orioles. Thank you.

Browse more photos »

November 19, 2009
From: The BBWAA
To: The World
Re: Cy Young

Tim Lincecum is better than everyone else. Please make a note of this.

Two full seasons, two Cy Youngs. That's two more than Juan Marichal. One more than Orel Hershisher, Eric Gagne, Fernando Valenzuela, and Mike Scott, all of whom can eat hot death.

Tim Lincecum: Cy Young Award winner. Again. You'd think that we'd be jaded because he won it last year. Nope. Still pretty danged exciting. Congrats, Tim.

Pre-Cy Announcement Thread

2009-11-19T16:54:36Z

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Dude...wait, what?

Browse more photos »

Lincecum? Wainwright? Carpenter?

This article is discouraging, but I'm not giving up hope yet.

As a reminder, good news will feel like this:

Bad news will feel like this...

...with a side of this:

Offseason Priorities for the Giants, Part II: First Base

2009-11-18T20:44:06Z

Supposedly, the easiest position at which to find a hitter is first base. Alas, we are Giants fans. It's a little disingenuous to say there's a post-Will curse on the organization -- J.T. Snow did provide a couple of fantastic years to bookend the meh -- but there hasn't been a lot of offense from first base since Will Clark left. The Sabean-led Giants are the kind of organization that can look at Shea Hillenbrand and Ryan Garko, and say, man, now those guys are clearly better than what we have on the roster.

And while Garko was a small sample size disaster after coming over, he still represents the best first baseman on the roster. As a right-handed guy with limited defensive skills, it'd be nice to have a lefty-swinging slick fielding complement to Garko. Like, oh, Travis Ishikawa. So there it is: the Giants are totally set at first base. Yet it feels like it should be a priority to find a new, shiny first baseman. This feeling is explained by the When You Have Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Nate Schierholtz, and Eugenio Velez Penciled in for a Lot of At-Bats Theorem, which posits:

When you have Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Nate Schierholtz, and Eugenio Velez penciled in for a lot of at-bats, you really, really, really want to find some more offense wherever you can.

Third? We're cool. Catcher? Should be fine if we keep our expectations fairly low. Second? Better than last year, at least. The rest of the the positions are filled by the goofs who give the theorem its name...except first base. By default, first base is the Giants' best chance to upgrade a sorry offense, even though it's one of the positions with the best incumbent hitter. Well, the best chance is to find any non-Velez to play left, but then that kind of glib talk just ignores Velez's 100 at-bats of mid summer greatness last year, which are 100 at-bats that mean more than the other 3000 in his professional career. Come on, now. Let's focus.

Nick Johnson provides on-base gettin'. Carlos Delgado or Troy Glaus might provide home run hittin' if they're healthy. Russell Branyan might be one of the offseason's best bargains, or he could be Damon Minor with a bigger house. There are options -- all risky, often appealing. They'd require that the Giants non-tender Ryan Garko, most likely. Here's a Scott Barnes, Indians. We're now even for '54.

It just seems like a shame, though, that the Giants have the best first base option since J.T. Snow smoked some of Wade Boggs's nail clippings during the 2004 All-Star break, and that's where we have to hope for an offensive upgrade. Not to say that Garko is anything special -- he's likely to be overpaid for what he produces, which isn't a whole lot for a first baseman. The overall offense would probably be better served by finding an improvement at short or in the outfield, but unless the Giants want to dish out a Zito-sized deal to Matt Holliday, it makes more sense to focus on the myriad of reasonable improvements at first base.

If the Giants start 2010 with Garko as the starting first baseman, that's just fine. But only if there are newly acquired productive hitters around him.

A Note on the Giants' Offseason Plans

2009-11-17T22:58:09Z

If you missed the State of the Sabean, here you go. Some of the key points:

Brad Penny wants too much money.
Juan Uribe wants too much money.
Bengie Molina wants a multi-year deal, which the Giants aren’t willing to do.
Trades stink because other teams want good players.
The Giants are going to buy a new offense through free agency.
They aren’t going to spend for Matt Holliday, so get ready for Jermaine Dye.
Welcome, Jermaine Dye.

Those last two aren’t explicitly detailed in the article, but it doesn’t take much to read between the lines. This offseason is like a bad game of solitaire, and we’re now cycling through our options at the end of the game over and over and over again.

Huh. Let’s see. I don’t want to give up value in a trade, as we don’t have a crazy surplus anywhere, and I don’t want to decimate our farm system, so let’s look at free agents.

Oh. All of these players are old and declining, a marginal upgrade with little upside, or they’re far too expensive for a team trying to pay Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. Maybe there’s another way.

Hmm. Yeah, it doesn’t make sense to trade Madison Bumgarner for Dan Uggla on, like, 15 different levels. I wouldn’t trade Bumgarner unless it was in some crazy deal for a player like Justin Upton, and that’s obviously not happening. Maybe there’s a bargain free agent out there.

Hey, not much out there. I guess there’s some flexibility with Pablo Sandoval’s ability to play first or third, but I’m not a fan of any of these guys, really. Maybe we can trade for someone.

And you keep cycling through the options, over and over and over and over until you find yourself writing a FanPost like this:

Okay, here’s the plan:
1. We move the jack of hearts to an empty spot, as it used to occupy an empty spot in the minor leagues

2. Trade the six of clubs to one of the empty ace slots. Flip over the card underneath and everything should open up.

3. Take the six of diamonds from up top and put it in front of the five of spades. Now you can move things around.

So the new card lineup should look like this:

King of diamonds
Queen of spades
Jack of diamonds…

The next thing you know, you’re mumbling to yourself at a bus station with unwashed hair and a full diaper. Just give yourself a break. There is no solution. I’m glad that Sabean doesn’t want to give too much money to Uribe or Penny. I’m glad that there’s no way that Molina is going to get two years from the team. But there’s no way to escape from the bad offense. Not this offseason. Edgar Renteria is going to start at short. Aaron Rowand is going to start in center. Eugenio Velez is going to start in left. There isn't a way to fix that kind of head start, not even with $100M of free agent cash to throw around.

Bad offense. Bad, naughty, bad offense. Just accept it and hope that Thomas Neal and Buster Posey are above-average hitters by 2011.

Why Tim Lincecum Should Win the Cy Young

2009-11-16T23:16:15Z

He's better than everyone else.

What, you want more? Chris Carpenter missed a month and gave up six earned runs to the Giants, which is a sin so egregious he should be ineligible for next year's award as well. Adam Wainwright had more wins, but Lincecum's middle name is LeRoy, so those two equally important pieces of information cancel each other out.

Another reason that Lincecum should win is that he had to pitch every inning with the knowledge that if he gave up a run, he had to rely on a ragtag collection of non-hitting misfits to score two runs. If he gave up two runs, he had to rely on the same bunch of offensive null sets to score three runs. After giving up a bloop and a sacrifice bunt, he'd look at the runner at second and think, damn, if I give up another hit, that's one more run that our offense will have to score. I'd like to think that as he looked at the runner on second, Aaron Rowand waved at him. But that's just the poet in me. Point being, Lincecum pitched under more pressure because his offense stunk. Is that a valid reason? No, but it makes me feel better, and the abacus twiddlers agree that Lincecum was the most valuable pitcher in the NL, so I can always hide behind appeals to authority that I'm not sure I comprehend.

Maybe Lincecum winning another Cy Young will cost the Giants an extra two million clams. Maybe. But I've watched William VanLandingham tease us with potential. I've listened to the KNBR lines burn up after good games from Jamie Brewington, Allen Watson, and Ryan Vogelsong. I've watched hundreds of games featuring the close-but-no-cigar promise of Russ Ortiz and Shawn Estes. I've watched Joe Nathan build the bulk of an unlikely Hall of Fame case in a different uniform.

Tim Lincecum is it. He's the one we've been waiting for. He might have two Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons. He's it. I don't care if winning seven straight Cy Youngs costs the franchise eleventy billion dollars. I watched Noah Lowry disintegrate into a fine powder. My double-album of odes to Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, and Kurt Ainsworth seems kind of silly now. Merkin Valdez is still a freaking question mark, 27 years after the Giants acquired him. But we have Lincecum. That makes up for a whole hell of a lot.

So I support Tim Lincecum's candidacy for Cy Young. He makes America better. You like America, don't you? Also, every time a Giants fan roots against Lincecum in the hopes of a lower arbitration award, Tommy Lasorda's bosom tingles with mirth and delight. You have a choice. But you don't have a choice.

Offseason Decisions for the Giants, Part I: Catcher

2009-11-13T18:48:50Z

My secret two-pronged plan for the catching position in 2010:

Buster Posey starts. And if he hits .210/.290/.330 for his first 200 at-bats, he still starts. And if he allows a passed ball per week, he still starts. The Giants don't a roster that would be favored for a playoff berth right now. If they ever have that kind of roster in the near future, it will probably include Posey being an impact player. So the team needs to figure out if Posey can be an impact player in the short-term.

If the Giants somehow repeat their 2009 win total without Posey in 2010, the burning question in 2011 will be, "Gee, can we afford to start a rookie catcher with this pitching staff keeping us in contention?" This would also happen if the pitching staff implodes, mind you. It would probably happen if the pitching staff was just okay. The Giants have youngbackstopophobia, and the best cure is to confront those fears. Just do it quickly, like a Band-Aid.
Private detectives bug Bruce Bochy's house to determine his least favorite catcher in the big leagues. This catcher would be the new backup to Posey. Does Eliezer Alfonzo, or whomever, set up too late for Bochy's tastes? Does he call too many breaking balls in the first pitch of an at-bat? Too few? Great, he's the target. Because we know that Bochy thinks one of the worst hitters in the upper levels of professional baseball can make up for his offensive deficiencies by calling a good game, holding the running game in check, and showing off sound movement behind the plate. A catcher who does those things well in Bochy's estimation is a catcher who will be starting in May if Posey has a bad first month, regardless if said backup catcher hits like Kirk Rueter on peyote.

There it is. The secret formula. Build a roster designed around the inherent distrust of your manager's decision-making ability. Because the organization has run studies and everything.

Moderator: Okay. Scenario two. There's a runner on first, two outs, and Albert Pujols is up. What is the pitch sequence?
Minor league catcher with more than 500 games caught: Well, I'd try to steal a strike with a breaking ball if I'm confident in my pitcher's ability to keep the ball down. It really depends on the pitcher's strengths, really. If I'm catching a guy with a nasty two-seamer, I'll work away for the first part of the at-bat to set up a two-seamer inside, off the plate.

Minor league catcher with fewer than 500 games caught: Pujols? Screw that guy. Fastballs. And if my pitcher can't throw a fastball past him, then screw that pitcher. Shouldn't be in the big leagues. I'll call for a fastball right down the middle, and if my pitcher shakes me off, I'll tell Pujols what my pitcher's about to throw. Because this game isn't about strategy; it's about one man trying to throw a baseball as hard as he can past another man trying to hit a baseball as hard as he can. And if you don't believe that, then screw you.

See? That's science. I think Posey is the exception to that fewer than 500 games caught rule, though.

There's a special place in my heart for the people who are legitimately worried about Posey's ability to call a game. That concern assumes a) that there's some magic algorithm to calling a game beyond knowing the strengths and weaknesses of players, and b) that veteran catchers all become master tacticians through experience. The world is filled with people who play poker for twenty years, but still chase flushes and straights when two other people at the table are representing a full house. I'm not going to assume that every veteran catcher has had the secret of pitch sequence revealed to them as if they were an OT VIII-level Scientologist.

Posey should start, and there's every indication that he'll instantly upgrade the Giants offensively and probably defensively. I feel like Rod Serling is narrating my life as I write this. There's no reason this should even be a debate.

SBN Awards: NL MVP

2009-11-12T17:01:35Z

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

My ballot:

Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Chase Utley
Pablo Sandoval
Prince Fielder
Troy Tulowitski
Adrian Gonzalez
Tim Lincecum
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter

The last three slots were my way of saying, "Hey, pitchers should contend too. Just, uh, not on my ballot." Obvious homerism in play with my Sandoval vote, especially since I didn't even include Ryan Zimmerman on my ballot. I'm pretty sure there's no defensive difference between Sandoval and Zimmerman, so I'm not too regretful. Ahem.

Hey, it's better than a fourth-place vote for Todd Helton or second-place vote for Joey Votto, at least.

Right-handed hitters and the power of money

2009-11-11T19:38:50Z

Today's goal: stopping the "Free agent hitters won't come to the Giants because of the huge ballpark" myth. I don't know for certain it's a myth, mind you, but I have a pretty good idea. I'm not out there, talking to free agent hitters, hearing them laugh off suggestions that AT&T Park will depress their numbers. But here's my logic:

Point #1

AT&T Park isn't a pitcher's park any more. It was a few years ago. Now it's not. Ballparks are funny like that. Last year, AT&T Park was actually more favorable to hitters. To simplify park factors to an embarrassing degree: take the runs scored by the Giants at home and on the road, take the runs scored by their opponents during the same games, and figure out how all of the runs were distributed*. It's more complicated than that, but the important point to note is that park factors have nothing to do with how good or bad a particular offense is in a given season.

Point #2

Agents know things that will make them more money. Their hearts pump not blood, but a viscous, green sludge that is made from liquified hundred dollar bills and the tears of children who were just told their favorite player signed with the Yankees. This change doesn't just occur in nature; they have to work toward it. And if the Giants are offering $1M more to the client of an agent, which would mean that the agent's cut would be substantially more if the player would sign with the Giants, the agent needs to have information at his disposal that might ease the concerns of his client. So agents all know about park factors. They're intimately aware of them because not being familiar with them could cost them millions of dollars.

If a player has to choose between a couple of teams, it's not the agent who has to find parking in the Haight on a Saturday night. He doesn't care where the player ends up, apart from the standard close-working-relationship platitudes that can disappear quickly over a million dollar difference. So the agent needs to be able to say, "Look, that place gets a bad rap, but it's really not a pitcher's park anymore. People think of it like the Astrodome or Petco Park, but it's just not like that."

That's the bulk of the argument, but I don't really see how it's refutable with anything other than the idea that some agents might have been locked in a closet as kids by a bunch of numbers and facts, like Brian Sabean was, but that's a stretch. Good agents and even mediocre agents would know this; it would take an especially bad agent to tell Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, gee, maybe that scary park does gobble up home runs, so take less money elsewhere.

Comparatively high state taxes? Cost of living? Home runs disappearing for one-dimensional, left-handed power hitters? Those are legitimate reasons why free agent hitters might not want to come to San Francisco when they could go somewhere else for the same money. AT&T Park as an offense-suppressing bogeyman? Get outta here. And agents know it.

_{* For example: The Giants scored two of their three runs this season at home, therefore AT&T Park was a "hitter's park."}

SBN Awards: NL Cy Young

2009-11-11T17:24:22Z

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

My vote: Brad Penny, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter. Wainwright over Carpenter because of the innings pitched advantage. Penny over Lincecum because Penny had four wins in six starts, which is a 67% chance of a win. Lincecum was good, but he couldn't even crack 50%.

Wait, maybe I voted for Lincecum. I'll have to find my ballot. Either way, I'm reppin' the Giants, baby.

And those of you who don't want Lincecum to win because of a possible increased arbitration award: for shame. A new lawnmower would be a much more practical birthday gift than a $200 bottle of bourbon and a milk crate filled with pornography. But, go on, ask me which one I'd rather have. Don't be, I say, don't be so practical, kid. You'll miss out on the good things in life.

Free Agency, Part Two: Our greatest fears

2009-11-10T22:17:42Z

The flipside. One player you’re absolutely terrified that the Giants will sign. Cull free agent list, and name your guy.

I have three nominations for coveted Annual Gary Matthews, Jr. Do Not Want Award:

The Overpaid, Overcommitted, and Over Here

Jason Bay will get close to $100M, and that just might work for an AL team. Bay’s a remarkably consistent hitter, and he’s been healthy throughout his career. His defense is pretty spotty, but he’s still a net positive as long as he’s hitting. On the Giants, though, he’d be paid like a franchise player. With Zito and Rowand making a combined $100,000,000,000,000 over the next three years, adding Bay would pretty much be the last free agent foray for a while.

As soon as Bay is on the Giants, he’ll remember that he’s over 30 and fall off a cliff offensively. And the Giants will have three years of the most hilarious outfield coverage in baseball, especially if right field is filled by a rangeless goober as well. This is my dream; this is my nightmare.

Pure, uncut, ignorance

"Man, this team needs an RBI man. Saaaay, Jermaine Dye is available. He gets RBIs. This offseason stuff sure is easy. Saaaaay, Newhart reruns are on! Good thing my work is done here."

I’m not wild about using UZR to predict future performance – that’s not really what it was designed for – but Dye’s UZR hints that he’s played the outfield like a thumbless Glenallen Hill for the last three years, and that age is only going to make things worse. You don’t put a clomper like that in the outfield unless his offense is stellar enough to force your hand. A .340 OBP in a hitter’s park is not stellar, and it’s not a given that he’ll produce even that going forward.

I’m not unreasonable. Now that Sabean is back, all I want him to do is honestly evaluate why his offenses have been at the bottom of the league for the past six years. A Dye signing – "35 years young, plenty of homers and RBI, what’s not to like?" – would be an obvious indication that Sabean thinks that he’s just been unlucky with his roster-building philosophies. It wasn’t his fault, for example, that Rowand stopped hitting 30 home runs when he came to San Francisco. Gag.

Bengie Molina

This category is populated by Bengie Molina. A man who gets paid to evaluate baseball players is right now worried about how the offense is going to make up for Molina’s offensive production. He’s thinking, man, it makes sense to give Posey a shot, but who’s going to drive in the runs? Is it worth it, he wonders, to commit to a second or third year to Molina if it guarantees that all of those runs are driven in next year? That would block Posey, but then the runs would be driven in. And runs need to be driven in, or the offense will be even worse! What a dilemma.

Again, we follow an organization that is convinced that Molina helps an offense, whereas the rest of the civilized world realizes that a sub-.300 on-base percentage coming from the slowest player in baseball is something to avoid. Bringing back Molina is finding your wife in bed with one of her students after you’ve already read the e-mails between the two. I mean, you knew, but seeing it in action just hammers the ungodliness home.

I think Molina scares me more than any of the other free agents. At least we can pretend with Dye and Bay – poor defense is much harder to quantify on a day-to-day basis, especially when they’re improving on the offense from last season. But Molina grounding into double plays, stopping at third on a long double, and weakly flying out to the outfield for another two seasons? Assuming Bochy will know how to transition from a veteran catcher to a rookie catcher? I’ll set a series of small fires if that happens, and I can’t promise that they’ll be on inanimate objects.

SBN Awards: NL Rookie of the Year

2009-11-10T21:15:13Z

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

Note that Pablo Sandoval would have been a unanimous choice if he had 15 fewer at-bats in 2008. It's hard to complain about the decision to play him then, though. When a guy's ready, he should play. Worrying about potential awards a player may or may not be eligible for the following season: weenie talk.

FYI: My ballot was Hanson, Happ, and Coghlan, in that order. Close race.

SBN Awards: NL Manager of the Year

2009-11-10T00:22:57Z

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Go ahead. Ask me if that's my first-place vote for Bochy. The answer is after the jump!

No.

Scouring the free agent market

2009-11-09T22:38:17Z

One player you want. Cull the free agent list, and name your guy.

It’s a rosterbation sensation!

Nick Johnson is my guy, and I know it might not be especially rational. If Nick Johnson were a regular reader, he would probably raise his eyebrows at the suggestion that the Giants should spend a lot of money on an oft-injured, 30-year-old who plays a position at which the Giants have a decent option.

Per Rotoworld: Nick Johnson is going on the 60-day DL after raising, then straining, his eyebrows. The condition, incredulitis, is believed to be chronic.

But I’m an on-base percentage slut. Can’t get enough. Guy’s gotta have it. Mmmmm, on-base percentage: you got what I need. Mmm.

Johnson had a fantastic on-base percentage last year. He always does when he’s in the lineup. He isn’t much of a power guy – heck, he only had eight home runs last year, which is Ishikawa territory – but that’s easy to ignore when he’s putting up sweet, sweet on-base percentages. Mmmmm. And as weird as it sounds, I still think Johnson is learning how to hit. Sure, he’s 30 already, and he’s been around for eight seasons, but he’s only been healthy for, oh, 12 games or so.

"Gee, Grant," you say, "isn’t it a bad idea to sign over-30 guys who rarely stay healthy?" To which I respond, "lalalalalalalalala" with my fingers in my ears. On-base percentage, you punishing-yet-fair dominatrix: what are you about to get me into?

I don’t mind Ryan Garko on a roster, but with an organization that has Jesus Guzman, I’m not sure that there’s a good reason to pay Garko what he’s going to get in arbitration. He doesn’t run, and he doesn’t field, which is all pretty discouraging for a .280/.350/.470 guy (in the best-case scenario, even). FanGraphs says the difference between Garko and Johnson has been anywhere between one to four wins, depending on the season you pick. That’s pretty substantial, especially for a team with only one hitter who is a decent bet to be above average next season.

I’ll probably delete this post in three years, when Johnson is in the last year of a 3/$24M deal that provided his team with a total of 200 combined plate appearances. For now, though, Johnson is the only name-brand free agent in whom I have any interest.

I have a problem.

Your one guy, if you please. Don't do that thing where you post the whole lineup after your 156 moves are made. One guy, dang it.

Star Pitcher Pinched

2009-11-06T20:11:39Z

by Grant on Nov 5, 1923 2:00 PM PST

Star Pitcher Sullies Team, Caught With Hooch

Teammates View Art Nehf Askance, Mindful of Series Loss

With the hopes and year-long dreams of post-championship attaboys dashed by the cross-town behemoth Yankees, whose steadfastness in the face of worthy competition proved too daunting for even our nifty boys, star pitcher Art Nehf was caught with a hip flask full of hooch, besmirching his name and reputation as well as that of his fair team.

Though Nehf's doggy, Joe Brooks appearance has always led this observer to believe that he partook of a belt of giggle water whenever convenient, the official pinch only confirms our suspicions. Nehf proved to be quite the sap by carrying the skee on the hip; though he was not zozzled at the time of his arrest, there is every indication that he was planning on going hoary-eyed through the streets of New York, stumbling from speakeasy to speakeasy.

Far be it from this observer to be the town killjoy, but Nehf's predilection for getting owled or fried to the hat whenever the opportunity arose quite possibly could be the reason for the Giants' crushing defeat in the Contest of Contests this solemn autumn. For no Yankees player has yet to be popped for panther sweat in the past year, which just might account for their uncanny ability to hit on all sixes when their backs were against the Polo Grounds center field wall. No impartial party has yet reported that fellas like Wally Pipp, Whitey Witt, or "Babe" Ruth have besotted themselves in a quest to get canned from whatever bathtub skee dribbled into their cup, so we can only assume that their gumption, discipline, and fortitude served them well.

The youth of today deserve more from Art Nehf, whose swanky glad rags prove a tell-tale sign of the gin-mill gadfly who lost the final game of a grueling Fall contest, possibly while splifficated. For shame, Mr. Nehf. For shame.