Mile High Report

Winning the (AFC) West the old fashoned way.....Earn It!

2009-11-09T01:14:41Z

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

about 4 hours ago: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) acknowledges teammates after a third-quarter touchdown against the New York Giants during an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009, in East Rutherford, N.J. The Chargers won 21-20. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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A huge shout-out to Tom Coughlin. Hopefully some of you recorded the Giants-Chargers game. If so, keep, duplicate it and sell it under the title, "How to Lose a Football Game When Playing Not To....". It's one of my biggest pet peeves in all of sports, when a coach seems to have his team playing "not to lose". Invariably, by playing "not to lose" you are destined to, in fact, lose, as the Giants did today.

It was a hard-fought, close, football game throughout. The Giants had taken over the game, however, in the 4th quarter and had the Chargers on the ropes. After intercepting a Philip Rivers pass late in game, the Giants had the ball - First and Goal at the Chargers 4, leading 17-14.. The next 3 plays would tell the tale. Run, Run, Run with a holding penalty mixed in. Kick the field goal and the Giants lead by 6 with just over two minutes to go. We've seen this act before - give the Chargers an inch of life and they'll take a mile.

Rivers' game-winning TD pass with 21 seconds to go gave the Chargers a 21-20 win. Coughlin's game management was filled with decisions that stank of fear, from the way the team called those final plays to a couple of 4th and 1 situations at mid-field earlier in the game that the Giants decided it better to punt. For a team playing at home, that has already lost 3 games in a row, showing so little confidence in what used to be a dominant running game was quite troubling, and I'm not even a Giants fan!

All that said, I tip my cap to the Chargers. We talked before the Broncos played San Diego that to be the champ you have to beat the champ. The Broncos did just that, on the road, that Monday Night. Now, with another Champ coming to town tomorrow night, the Broncos once again see the Chargers firmly in their rearview mirror. Win tomorrow and the Broncos maintain their 2-game lead(with a game in hand). Lose, and the murmurs of "remember 2008" will start in and around the Rocky Mountain Region.

For my money, I say "BRING IT ON". I said the same last year when we watched the Chargers come back against the Chiefs, in Kansas City, with two late scores - and an on-side kick recovery - to keep their season alive. Obviously this is happening alot sooner this year, but I want the fire kept to the proverbial backsides of the Denver Broncos coaches and players. I don't want to back in to anything. I want the AFC West to be competitive, and I want the Broncos to WIN their way to a AFC West Division Championship!

There is a long way to go this season, and the Broncos and Chargers meet in Denver in 3 weeks. A lot can happen before then to determine how the West can be won, but for the Broncos it doesn't get any better than being right where they are. Sure, the Steelers are going to be a tough foe - and the Chargers are not going to go down without a fight. For this Broncos fan, I wouldn't have it any other way!

NFL Week 9 - Late Game Open Thread

2009-11-08T21:16:24Z

To be honest, there is only one game to pay attention to this afternoon - San Diego at New York. Talk about it here!

	1	2	3	4	Total
San Diego Chargers					0
New York Giants					0

Complete Coverage >

NFL Week 9 - Early Game Open Thread

2009-11-08T17:45:14Z

Good morning Bronco fans! Should be a pretty laid back Sunday. Please use this as the early game open thread. The most interesting games are listed below.

John and Friends Predict....Week 9 in the NFL

2009-11-08T10:30:16Z

John and various members of the staff here are once again competing in the annual MHR Pick'em challenge. You will notice the Denver Broncos game is not included. We'll just say everyone roots for the Broncos each week! Guru's wife is a Patriots fan, so her pick will be of the Broncos game. Just so homerism doesn't affect the outcome again this year.

WEEK 9
-	John	Steve	Tim	Doug	Ted	Mdierk	Guru Wife
WAS @ ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL
ARI @ CHI	CHI	ARI	ARI	CHI	ARI	ARI	ARI
BAL @ CIN	CIN	CIN	BAL	BAL	BAL	CIN	BAL
HOU @ IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	HOU	IND	IND
KC @ JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX	JAX
MIA @ NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	DEN
GB @ TB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
CAR @ NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
DET @ SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
SD @ NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	SD
TEN @ SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
DAL @ PHI	PHI	PHI	DAL	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
Last Week	8-4	7-5	8-4	8-4	9-3	7-5	8-5
Season Record	81-28	76-33	78-31	74-35	75-34	73-36	74-35

Horse Tracks 11/8/09 - McBean, Harris out; Barrett & Law expected to play

2009-11-08T15:41:24Z

DB - Week 9 - Sat: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Week 9 - Sat: Law - Audio
Ty Law discusses his arrival and role in Denver.

DB - Laying Down The Law - Chris Gentilviso
"After limited participation in Friday’s practice, Josh Barrett (hamstring) was a full participant in Saturday’s session."

DPP - Law looking to lift value of nickel - Lindsay Jones
"Law's contract will pay him $800,000 in base salary. He received a $200,000 signing bonus and could earn an additional $400,000 in incentives."

DP - A couple more Ty Law notes - Lindsay Jones
"Law will wear jersey No. 26...On Saturday, Law wore a sleeve on wrist with the plays and defensive calls on it (like the sleeves quarterbacks sometimes wear)."

DPP - Analysis: Denver's Dumervil versatile even as helping hand - Jeff Legwold
"While it may be a little thing, the fact that Dumervil can get down, comfortably, in a three-point stance, with the proper hand down on either side of the formation likely helps him work both sides."

DPP - Denver Broncos OLB Darrell Reid always embraces change - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Law will learn on the fly for Broncos - Frank Schwab

DPP - Where QBs intersect - Mike Klis

DPP - Klis: TDs rise without wedge
Tom Jackson thinks the elimination of the wedge is behind the explosion of kick-return TDs.

DPP - Steelers haven't thrown away running game - Jeff Legwold
"Of the 10 kickoff returns for touchdowns in the NFL this season, seven have been allowed by teams that predominantly play the 3-4 defense. The Steelers have surrendered two for touchdowns, and the Broncos have allowed one...Running back Peyton Hillis was excused from practice for the second consecutive day and did not take part in the Broncos' workout Saturday. Hillis is expected to rejoin the team for Monday night's game."

DPP - Q&A: Quarterback-powered NFL wants QBs protected - Jeff Legwold

DP - Consider Buckhalter perfect for the long run - Mark Kiszla

DB - Broncos Sign Law, Waive Jack Williams - Zach Eisendrath

AP - Broncos Sign Law, Release Jack Williams - Arnie Stapleton

PPG - The Opponent: McDaniels has brought energy to the Denver Broncos - Lynn DeBruin

ESPN - McDaniels, Tomlin have taken similar paths - Bill Williamson

Steelers News

PPG - On The Steelers - Ed Bouchette

PPG - Steelers' Timmons likely to miss game - Robert Dvorchak

PTR - Younger coaches making their mark in NFL - John Harris

PTR - Timmons, Kirschke to sit out Monday's game - Mark Kaboly

PTR - Week 9: Steelers Key Matchup
Starks & Colon versus Doom

BCT - Bires: No matter what they say, Clark won't play - Mike Bires

BCT - Steelers notes: No-huddle is no-brainer - Mike Bires

AFC West News

PFW - Castillo stepping up for Chargers' D-line - AFC Whispers
"The Broncos are going to miss ORT Ryan Harris, who is expected to miss a few weeks with a foot injury, but sources say the team feels comfortable with backup Tyler Polumbus moving into the starting lineup. Harris is regarded as one of the better young right tackles in the game, but the drop-off with Polumbus, a natural left tackle, in the game isn't tremendous."

SDUT - Just don't call this defense makeshift - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Chambers' departure ‘shocking’ to Floyd - Chris Jenkins

NFL - Chiefs activate RB Smith, release WR Engram

KCS - Chiefs-Jaguars scouting report - Adam Teicher

SFC - RAIDERS MIDSEASON REVIEW / Hard to watch, looking back on it - David White

NFL News

NFL - Saturday Injury Reports

NFL - Packers place OL Spitz on injured reserve with lower back problems

NFL - Saints DT Clancy out for season with knee injury

NFL - Jaguars place Starks on injured reserve with hamstring injury

NFL Opinion

NFP - Sunday at the Post - Mike Lombardi

NYT - In N.F.L., Fundamentals of Tackling Are Slipping Away - Judy Battista

PFW - Defenses salivate at QBs with bad habits - Mike Wilkening

FOX - Countdown: Cards hope Fitz can go deep - John Czarnecki

SN - Cowboys need 'good Romo' to avoid bad outcome - Clifton Brown

NFP - Weekend Notes: Will Lovie bring the pressure? - Matt Bowen

DPP - Super season taking on look of inside job - Jeff Legwold

Scouting Terrence Cody

2009-11-08T05:35:16Z

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

1 day ago: Alabama's Terrence Cody (62) reacts at the end of a 24-15 win over LSU in their NCAA college football game at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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I've been hearing a lot about Terrence Cody of late. I hadn't really had a chance to make any kind of decision on how I feel about the player and with the onset of a classic SEC LSU/Alabama contest, I thought that this kind of high-stakes matchup would be a perfect chance to find out if this is a player that I'd like the Broncos to consider or not. The week before, I spent some time wandering though the draft sites and the news media to get a little background. These are the things I found.

First, Terrence Cody isn't currently being considered as a first round pick by a surprising number of of websites. The ones that like him seem to only talk about his metrics - there's no question at all that he's a big, big guy. But as too often happens, very few sites that are 'big' on him talked about anything else. That has been the biggest reason that I haven't been on the Cody bandwagon -- that doesn't tell me anything that I didn't know the first time that I read about him. Size is good - sometimes. It certainly can't be taught. But, by itself it's not sufficient. There are 400 lb guys out there, but they can't necessarily play nose tackle. If Denver wants him at all, they'll want him at nose. He really doesn't have any qualities that would let him fill in at DE. I needed to learn about his intellect, motivation, coachability, skillset and effectiveness.

To gain a little more background, I looked up some biographical information. Cody transferred to Alabama as a junior in 2008, coming from Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College. He had also only played two years of high school football - his junior and senior years. I didn't find a reason given, (although a couple of allusions to his poor grades in high school) but Cody's lack of experience may be playing into some of his issues. However - upon transferring to Alabama, he made an immediate impact. In 2007, Cody would go on to achieve first all-SEC team status, and garnered first team All-American status during his first year at Alabama, his junior year. He did miss a few games with a MCL sprain, which is something to watch. The ankles and knees of a man that big take on a huge strain.

So, I spent some time on the sites that have dropped him out of the top round and read about their feelings as to why that's going to happen. I got the same two reasons, over and over. Reason 1 - conditioning. Reason 2 - inner drive. The two are frequently related, and in a big man, they can be a real pain in the neck. Cody is 6'5" and his weight is the stuff of conjecture. That brought back a few players throughout history, and none of them made me very happy.

If you're of a certain age, you might remember an offensive tackle by the name of Bubba Paris. At 6-6 and 300 lb in an era when that weight was rare, he was drafted in 1982 to play left tackle by the San Francisco 49ers. Bubba was going to be the next big reason that the SF 49ers would go to more Super Bowls. When Paris was drafted, Bill Walsh was sure that with a year or so of seasoning, Paris would be a very large, very stout obstacle to any of the players who were going to hit Walsh's quarterbacks. It never happened. Paris sat out a year and the coaches worked with him on his conditioning but he always seemed to regain the weight (it would later turn out to be delivery late night pizzas that were the culprit). He did eventually start at left tackle and he played in a lot of playoff games for a very good SF team.

However, no matter what they did, for some reason Paris just couldn't get himself sufficiently motivated to get and stay in the kind of shape that would let him dominate. He did last for almost a decade, but Paris was just never the player that Walsh wanted or that he could have been. That's happened with a lot of big men. Hearing that about Cody didn't fill me with warmth and excitement, but it was, after all, just draft sites. They aren't exactly gospel to me. I wanted to watch him play, and I did.

In the first quarter, I got a good look at him. He's physically imposing, to be sure. What I didn't see was an explosive first step. Cody doesn't seem to fire off the snap. He's not languid, but he's far from fast. You can say, however, that he gets up a good head of speed over the course of a few steps. Inertia is certainly his friend. True to his pattern, Cody tended to play 2 of three downs. What concerned me about that was that he missed both passing and rushing downs, apparently due to his conditioning issues. Cody has lost some weight, by the way, and is down from almost 390 to 365 to start the season and 358 early this week. I consider that a good sign, but I do wonder at how long it's taken him to get motivated enough to dump the weight, and whether he's gained sufficient endurance enroute. Several sites did mention that the coaches have admitted that motivation isn't always his strong suit. Again - that's just draft sites, and opinions vary.

There were some good things and some less good things that came out right away as the game began. On one of the first plays, I saw him attempt to stunt, weakside, attempting to make his way past Ciron Black, the LSU sophomore LT who will turn pro. Black handled him easily, one on one. That wasn't what I had hopes for. By the way, when Cody tries to run, he almost prances. It's a strange gait for a man of his size, but something tells me that no one makes fun of it. Cody was double teamed at times, and rarely seemed to defeat them. He's tough one on one for the smaller players to handle, though, and that's a start.

During that quarter, Cody got near the QB once but never really pressured him. I will say that LSU often ran 'away' from him, but I'm not going to read a lot into that. They essentially liked to run offtackle and did so a lot with mixed results. They did run past him a couple of times, moving him nicely out of the way. They also threw a lot of screens - WR and RB.

Cody wasn't much of a factor in the passing game. He's not fast enough to catch the QB much, and he's not explosive enough to reach his level often. I saw him on his hands and knees twice. He did make a nice tackle on running back Charles Scott, moving laterally with good control to reach him. On two other plays, the announcers raved over him being in on the tackle, but he had only mopped up after the stop was made.

Play anticipation: I've already noted that I didn't see him exploding off the snap. Just as importantly, I didn't see him having the ability to diagnose the play and to move accordingly. If the play went away from him, it seemed that he wasn't too concerned about pursuit. Cody also doesn't seem to have the knack of using his hands effectively. Blockers too often were able to lock on to him and maintain their blocks.

On an Alabama blitz package at about the 10:50 mark of the second quarter, Cody went for the B gap. The guard took him on and steered him to the outside, leaving a huge opening that the LSU QB Jordan Jefferson used to pick up a first down, running. He was kept helpless in a double team when Jefferson threw the first TD pass of the day. Overall, this isn't what I want to see in a Broncos high round pick. Cody tended to trot when he should have run (or was that running?). He isn't often in on the tackles even in his zone. By the time that the 1st half had ended, I wasn't in Cody's corner.

But I entered the second half willing to be persuaded. It was a good, tight game, with several great performances on both teams. It was the kind of game in which one single big play could swing the victory to one team or the other. LSU went into half time with a 7-3 lead, but Alabama came back on the first drive on the second half to take a 10-7 lead. It was still anyone's game.

3rd quarter, 3rd and 4, 10:34 to go. Cody actually did fire out of his stance very quickly. The only problem was, he was totally off-balance when he did and landed flat on his nose., untouched. Easy play for an LSU 1st and 10. I continued to watch and chart, but eventually lost interest. To be honest, Cody didn't do all that much. The LSU offense was shut down for most of the day, but Cody really wasn't a big part of that. He made a couple of plays, but really didn't do anything that stood up and screamed 'First Round!'. Actually, I left the exercise with the impression that he's going to be a project for someone.

Do you remember BJ Raji? He was the one 'big' prize, the player that teams were supposed to lust over. The Packers got him and he's doing what most 1st year DL players do - sitting on the bench, filling in, impressing no one. If you add to that the fact that Raji at least tended to dominate more often than not in college, you can get a clear picture of how excited I'd be if Cody came to Denver. I've looked forward to dental appointments with that kind of joyous fervor.

Terrence Cody is a very large man. He is relatively inexperienced. He might be teachable, even though he apparently doesn't have a huge intellect, and he may keep his motivation on the weight loss long enough to get in condition. But if you seriously want the Broncos to improve this upcoming offseason, I'd suggest that either he's going to have to improve very quickly, or he's not the player for us. Intellect, first step, ability to diagnose the play, dominating against talent, defeating double teams and showing off skill in big games all mean a certain amount to me in establishing draft desirability for NTs. TC just didn't have it today. Perhaps on other days he will, but I came away sure that he's not the player for the Broncos.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos Saturday Injury Report

2009-11-07T21:10:18Z

DENVER BRONCOS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Josh Barrett (S)	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Limited Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Ryan Harris (T)	Toe	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Ryan McBean (DL)	Knee	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
David Bruton (S)	Groin	Limited Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Peyton Hillis (RB)	Not Injury Related	Not Listed	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Travis Kirschke (DE)	Calf	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Lawrence Timmons (LB)	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Ryan Clark (S)	Illness	Not Listed	Not Listed	Full Participation	Questionable

Broncos add Ty Law, Waive CB Jack Williams

2009-11-07T16:09:41Z

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

28 days ago: Denver Broncos' Jack Williams salutes the crowd after the Broncos beat the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime during an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider )

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The Denver Broncos on Saturday signed five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Ty Law and waived cornerback Jack Williams, it was announced.

Law (5-foot-11, 200 pounds) is a 15th-year veteran who has played for the New York Jets (2008, ‘05), Kansas City (2006-07) and New England (1995-2004). He entered the NFL with the Patriots as the 23rd overall pick in the 1995 NFL Draft from the University of Michigan.

Named to the Pro Bowl four times with the Patriots (1998, 2001-03) and once with the Jets (2005), Law owns three Super Bowl rings from his time with New England (2001, ‘03-04). He has appeared in 196 career regular-season games (187 starts), totaling 835 tackles (699 solo), five sacks (33 yds.), 52 interceptions (791 yds., 7 TDs), 164 pass breakups, seven forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries.

In the playoffs, Law has started 13 career games, including three Super Bowls. He has posted 55 tackles (47 solo), six interceptions (116 yds., 1 TD) and 14 pass breakups in the postseason for his career.

Law's 58 total interceptions (52 regular season, 6 postseason) for his career tie for 16th in NFL history and lead all active cornerbacks. His 52 career interceptions in regular-season play tie for 23rd in league annals and are the most by a current player at his position.

Law has started all 16 games in three of the last four seasons, including during the 2005 campaign with the Jets when he tied for the NFL lead with a career-high 10 interceptions to earn Pro Bowl accolades. Last year, he saw time in seven games (6 starts) with the Jets after joining the club midway through the season and had 19 tackles (14 solo), two pass breakups and one forced fumble.

A first-team All-American during his final year at Michigan, Law posted 154 tackles (120 solo) and six interceptions for his collegiate career. He earned Parade All-America honors at Aliquippa High School in Aliquippa, Pa., and was born on Feb. 10, 1974.

Horse Tracks 11/7/09 - Broncos agree to terms w/Ty Law pending physical; LK Smith to start in place of McBean

2009-11-07T15:30:34Z

Good Morning, MHR Friends! The imminent Ty Law signing is certainly interesting, especially the timing of it. Law must keep himself in incredible shape, because if the Broncos don't plan on suiting him up on Monday, then wouldn't they just sign him on Tuesday? Similarly, Law was signed on a Monday last year by the Jets and played for them versus the Patriots just three days later on a Thursday. The next question, of course, is whose roster spot does Law take? My guess would be Brandon Lloyd, who's been inactive every week thus far.

DB - Week 9 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Protecting Against The League’s Best - Chris Gentilviso
"After not participating in Thursday’s session, Josh Barrett (hamstring) was a limited participant. After being limited participants during Thursday’s session, David Bruton (groin) and Jack Williams (illness) were full participants on Friday. Peyton Hillis (not injury related) did not participate in Friday’s practice."

DPP - Veteran Ty Law signed to bolster Denver Broncos' secondary - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Another Ryan might be missing on line for Broncos - Frank Schwab
Le Kevin Smith will start in Ryan McBean's place on Monday.

DB - Balance In The Backfield - Chris Gentilviso
"If Buck is in space with anybody 1-on-1, linebacker, DB, whatever, I'm betting on Buck," said Andra Davis. "I've got that much confidence in him because he's big enough to run over a DB, but he's fast enough also to run by a DB. He's got the total package."

DPP - Nolan studied Steelers' 3-4 "D" to help Broncos - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Broncos aim for quick start - Brian Howell
""We haven’t really come to play the first half of a lot of games," tight end Tony Scheffler said."

Y! - Belichick Q&A: Every player has a trade price - Jason Cole
There's nothing Broncos-specific within this interview, but as it's a rare and insightful peek into the mind of Bill Belichick, it is an absolute must-read. Surely much of the wisdom he shares here is that which he's already imparted upon Josh McDaniels.

PFW - Broncos, Marshall: Good vibes may not last - Dan Parr
"While Marshall and the team have put the contract dispute in the background for the time being, it will reemerge sooner or later and nothing appears to have significantly changed between either party when it comes to that matter. Marshall wants a long-term deal and the Broncos don't need to give him one."

ESPN - Ron Jaworski: Denver Broncos must go long against Pittsburgh Steelers
"The Broncos simply have to try to manufacture a touchdown. They have to come out in a max-protect set, send two wide receivers down the field and see what happens. I don't see them going 80 yards in 12 plays too often against the Steelers."

LTC - Steelers’ Tomlin a good role model for McDaniels - Brian Howell

DB - Keeping Things In Perspective - Mike Rice
"Just because the Broncos lost one game doesn’t mean they’ll lose another two or three or four in a row. It also doesn’t mean a freefall is imminent."

DB - A Few Minutes With Mario Haggan - Broncos TV

DPP - Q&A: The importance of bye weeks in the NFL can be overrated - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight: Marshall clearly now No. 1 receiver - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos reportedly agree to terms with cornerback Ty Law - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos To Add Veteran Cornerback Ty Law - Pat Graham

FOX - Fearless Prediction: Steelers (5-2) at Broncos (6-1) - Sports Xchange
"PREDICTION: Steelers 24-17"

ESPN Insider - Broncos must slow Big Ben - Gary Horton
"If (Roethlisberger) is forced to more three- and five-step drops and fewer seven-step drops, it will lead to a lot of underneath routes -- that will allow the Broncos to keep everything in front of them, and the Steelers will struggle to put together multiple long drives against this Denver defense, which tackles well."

Steelers News

PPG - Steelers: No-huddle might be fun, but it does have its flaws - Gerry Dulac

PPG - Steelers: No word on Clark's status - Gerry Dulac

PTR - Woodley's play validates hype - John Harris

PTR - Starkey: Fast Willie's future clouded

PTR - Timing is right for Harrison, Steelers - Scott Brown

AFC West News

FH - Suspending Cable Good for Everyone, Including Him - Kevin Blackistone

ESPN - San Diego's Jackson is becoming a receiving star - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Emerging presence - Kevin Acee
Shawne Merriman feels disrespected...

KCS - Chiefs need Morgan to mature quickly, limit big plays - Adam Teicher

KCS - Controversial locker-room sign isn’t unique to Chiefs - Adam Teicher

NFL News

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - Colts lose Sanders, Jackson for season; Gonzalez has surgery

FH - John Harbaugh: Cowboys Are Everything That's Wrong With the NFL - Josh Alper

NFL Opinion

NFP - Goodell is put on the hot seat - Andrew Brandt

USAT - The Bell Tolls: Twitter a boon and a burden for savvy NFL'ers - Jarrett Bell

FOX - NFC East teams are struggling with inconsistency - Kevin Hench

Y! - 'Tis the season to run teams into the ground - Mike Silver

SI - Daniel Snyder running Washington Redskins into ground - S.L. Price

NFP - Diner morning news: Saints, Colts midseason favorites - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Mounting outrage, protests make this the year of the fan - Jason La Canfora

NFL Picks/Previews

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 9

SI - NFL Week 9 Guide, including Texans-Colts, Cowboys-Eagles, more - Ross Tucker
"The Broncos can't afford to lose the swagger and faith they had as a result of winning their first six games...Whether or not Polamalu still has that freedom without his partner in crime (Ryan Clark) in the secondary could be a factor."

NYT - Week 9 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier

ESPN - Bill Simmons book tour and NFL picks Week 9
"I am not buying the whole "Baltimore proved how to stop Denver's offense" thing. At all. Guarantee Josh McDaniels studied what the Ravens did for 75 hours this week and made all the necessary adjustments. Beware of the altitude; beware of Elvis and Knowshon; and most of all, beware of the Neck Beard."

NFL - Five years after big trade, it's a big game for Manning, Rivers - Pat Kirwan
"Coming off a bye, the Steelers in Denver sounds like a win to me."

SN - NFL Week 9: Ten bold predictions - RealScouts
"That means you can expect a pass-heavy attack from Ben and the boys in Denver. That's not so bold, but this is ... it won't work."

CBS - Peek at the Week: Big D looking for big W in Philly - Clark Judge

FH - Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos - Dave Goldberg
"Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks."

FH - The Once-Over: Week 9 - Knox Barden

Poll

If Ty Law is signed today, who do you think he will replace on the Broncos' roster?

Getting the Berger Picture: Why Josh McDaniels is Smarter Than You

2009-11-07T01:30:24Z

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

7 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels gestures in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Baltimore. Baltimore won 30-10. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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If you were inside the head of Josh McDaniels, you might be tempted to tell everyone how smart you really are.

Then again, if you were Josh McDaniels, you'd be smart enough to shut up and keep your knowledge to yourself. Al Davis has spies everywhere (look behind your bushes right now if you think I'm lying), so there's really no need to give up trade secrets.

During the bye week, McDaniels waived Punter Brett Kern and replaced him with (let's just say it) journeyman punter Mitch "Where's the Beef?" Berger. In a seemingly puzzling move, Denver's starting punter was on the street. We can all sleep well, however, knowing Kern was picked up by Tennessee in a few days. The bad news for Kern is that he's not going to the playoffs this year. The good news? He'll get plenty of practice kicking with Vince Young under center.

Things looked even stranger after the Baltimore game last week. Berger didn't exactly shred it up like Keanu Reeves on a tasty wave. He was criticized for his slow delivery, and his lack of leg strength, averaging a paltry 38.4 yards/punt. And it's not as if this average was skewed. Berger had 8 punts. He punted so many times they are considering waving his entrance fee to the next Ray Guy kicking camp.

So why did McDaniels do it? Why, Josh? Give us an explanation.

McDaniels isn't talking, you say. Well, I guess you'll have to settle for the next best thing: stats.

Going Correlation Crazy

Right now, as you are ironing your Eddie Royal jersey, hundreds of thousands of soon-to-be-unemployed MBA students are learning a little statistical technique called regression. They use it to try and determine the relationship between stock prices and the S&P 500 or individual stocks (good luck!). You don't have to know the math (certainly Raiders' fans don't), nor do you have to be an MBA student to apply this same technique to determine relationships between different football stats. If you read The Football Outsiders or Advanced NFL Stats, you will see a lot of this kind of thing.

The part of this regression analysis that shows us the relationship between two variables is called the correlation coefficient. Don't worry about terminology. Essentially what we are asking ourselves is, what stats, if any, from the punting game, correlate to winning? It's as simple as that. The correlation coefficient (and now let's release you from this stupid terminology and call it correlation) can give us a simple, but useful guide.

The scale runs from -1 to 1. As such, a negative number shows us a greater negative relationship between two variables. A positive number shows us a greater positive relationship. The greater the number as it approaches -1 or 1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables.

Let's walk through an easy example. Let's say we wanted to determine if there was a relationship between IQ and the number of years someone was a Raiders' fan. If you did a regression analysis on the data, and the correlation coefficient came back at -.934, we would say that there was a very strong negative relationship between the level of IQ and the number of years as a Raider fan (within that population). In short, one might be inclined to argue that the longer one was a Raider Fan, the dumber they got. In fact, I just did.

And you thought stats were boring.

Correlation Between Winning and Punting

For the purposes of this analysis, I used 3 NFL seasons (2006-2008). I simply correlated a variety of punting statistics to team wins. Before we look a the results, remember one things all stats geeks like to yell from the mountaintop (usually, after getting out of a college stats course): correlation is not causation. True enough, stats geek, but it can help guide us to relationships that we might not be aware of.

Here were the results of the analysis. All of these stats are correlated to team wins from 2006-2008:

Punting Yards: -.452

Net Yards: -.407

Gross Punting Average: -.286

Net Average: -.155

Number of Puts Returned: -.483

Return Yards: -.386

Average Yards/Return: -.194

Percentage of Punts Inside Opponents 20-Yard Line: .346

Percentage of Punts Not Returned: .323

So what do these numbers really tell us?

The correlation between punting and winning in the NFL is moderate to moderate-weak. Not one of these stats had a correlation weaker than -.50 or greater than .50. This is no surprise, since special teams is just one component of winning football.
Gross Averages and Net Averages of Punters don't matter as much as you think. Essentially, the correlations between the most cited stats in punting (Gross Average, Net Average) have the weakest correlations and are negative. This means that winning games has little to do with punting averages. Moreover, those teams with punters who have a "big leg" are usually those teams that are losing and likely punting with larger fields, and as such, can really tear loose with big kicks.
In the punting game, putting your opponent in their red zone and limiting return opportunities are the most important factors in winning. In fact, the two most important positive relationships between winning and punting are the percentage of your punts that you put inside the 20 and the percentage of punts not returned. Again, don't let your opponent have the opportunity to have opportunity!

Someone might be tempted to say, "I'd rather have a punter who kicked the ball on average 50 yards every punt than a punter who kicked it 10 yards with no return." Although correct, this is not what we are talking about. We are talking about the NFL, in which the difference between the league leader in punting and the league average is about 4 yards. This isn't pee-wee football. This is the NFL. These guys can all punt.

Which brings us back to Kern and Berger.

Kern or Berger?

Now that we've established that a large punting average is less important than limiting the opportunities your opponent has for a return, we can safely judge our two contestants. And here is where the true genius of McDaniels comes in. First, let's look at the 2008 numbers of Kern and Berger side by side using the same statistics from above. I've taken the liberty of highlighting those stats that are the most relevant.

Berger clearly puts the ball inside the 20 more often, has better hang-time (hence the higher percentage of punts not returned), and finally, his punts result in less return yards per play, all of which are more important to team wins than Average or Net Average.

Kern's big leg would be more important in a hypothetical NFL, in which all punt returners fair caught every play or let the ball bounce and roll. But unfortunately, they don't do this. Many are deadly, catching the ball on the run, and if you outkick your coverage unit too often, you're just giving your opponent an opportunity for a big play.

The Verdict

So let’s review. During the bye week, Josh McDaniels released a punter with a big leg. He replaced him with a punter who drops the ball inside the twenty more often, limits the number of chances the opponent has for a big return, has a higher hang-time, and when the opponent does return the ball, the yards the opponent gets are less. And all of these things have a greater correlation to winning than does the simple act of booming a kick as far as possible. It appears as if McDaniels is interested again in just one thing: winning.

Even Keanu Reeves would say, “Whoa. Excellent, Dude.”

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos; Friday Injury Report

2009-11-06T23:11:30Z

DENVER BRONCOS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Josh Barrett (S)	Hamstring	Did Not Participate	Limited Participation
Ryan Harris (T)	Toe	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
Ryan McBean (DL)	Knee	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
David Bruton (S)	Groin	Limited Participation	Full Participation
Jack "MF" Williams (CB)	Illness	Limited Participation	Full Participation
Peyton Hillis (RB)	Not Injury Related	Not Listed	Did Not Participate
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Travis Kirschke (DE)	Calf	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate
Lawrence Timmons (LB)	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate

Broncos add Ty Law, pending physical

2009-11-06T20:47:18Z

Now this is a weird move. The Broncos have agreed to a contract with CB Ty Law - who was once one of the better corners in the League with the New England Patriots, pending a physical tonight.

Law and the Broncos have reached agreement on a contract that will add another former Patriot to Josh McDaniels' stable of them in Denver.

Law confirmed the developments when contacted Friday.

He is scheduled to fly to Denver on Friday to take a physical. Assuming he passes, Law will join the Broncos at a similar time to when he joined the New York Jets last season.

When the Jets signed him early in a week last year, Law suited up days later and participated in more than 50 plays covering Randy Moss.

He had wanted to return to football again and will now have the chance. Law, Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey will give Denver arguably the most decorated defensive secondary in the league.

Decorated, yes - but is there a need? It is true that rookie Alphonso Smith and Jack Williams have been up and down as the Nickel corners, but will the addition of Law help that?

**Hat Tip to those who created Fan Posts and Fan Shots!

Poll

Ty Law....Good Move?

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

2009-11-06T18:57:29Z

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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Horse Tracks 11/6/09 - McBean, Barrett miss practice again; Roethlisberger lobbying for no-huddle

2009-11-06T13:01:07Z

Our thoughts go out to everyone touched by yesterday's tragedy in Texas...

NFL Films - Week 9: Steelers vs. Broncos Preview - Video

DB - Week 9 - Thu: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Week 9 - Thu: Baliey - Broncos TV

DB - A Familiar Foe - Zach Eisendrath
Ryan McBean spent the last two season on Pittsburgh's practice squad, so his familiarity with the Steelers is helping his new teammates practice for Monday. However, McBean (knee) and Josh Barrett (hamstring) again joined Ryan Harris in missing practice yesterday.

DPP - Broncos lineman feeling at home - Lindsay Jones
Tyler Polumbus is expected to make his first NFL start on Monday, and he'll basically be doing so in his hometown and in front of family and friends.

NFLN - WK 9 Playbook: Steelers vs. Broncos - Video
Baldinger thinks the Broncos need to challenge Pittsburgh deep, while Theismann sees improvement in the Steelers O-Line.

DP - Broncos will be running up hill against Steelers - Jeff Legwold

DP - Steelers safety quiet as playing is unlikely

DPP - Kiszla: Broncos make mistake with Moreno over Buckhalter
Kiszla thinks Buck should be getting more touches than Knowshon.

DPP - Special-teams delivery from Broncos overdue - Mike Klis

DPP - Gaffney shows 20-20-20-20 vision - Mike Klis

DPP - Spotlight on: Broncos DE Kenny Peterson - Lindsay Jones

CSG - Broncos LB Williams might get to Pro Bowl this time - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos coach says if plays executed, success will follow - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: WR Stokley has been quiet lately - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos Trying To Kick Trend Of Slow Starts - Pat Graham

DB - Breakfast Blitz - Gray Caldwell
Wonderful. The Broncos have decided to "promote good eating habits" by putting Miles on the box of some sugar-laden breakfast cereal.

ESPN - John Clayton breaks down the biggest NFL games of Week 9
"Keep an eye on Orton. Early in the week, it was revealed his ankle was sore. It's not a bad injury, just a minor tweak. But a sore ankle last season when he was in Chicago limited his mobility and negatively affected his throws in the final weeks of the season. "

ESPN - Countdown Daily Insight Center: PIT-DEN - Video
KC Joyner thinks the Broncos will try to go after CB Ike Taylor on Monday

ESPN Insider - Steelers-Broncos: 10 observations - Gary Horton
"Pittsburgh 28, Denver 27"

Steelers News

PPG - On the Steelers: Clark unlikely to play Broncos - Ed Bouchette

PTR - Dependable Starks prepares for next test - Mark Kaboly

PTR - Roethlisberger pushing for no-huddle - Scott Brown

PTR - Clark unlikely to play Monday night - Scott Brown

BCT - Notebook: Something special in store for Harrison? - Mike Bires

BCT - Denver's new wrinkle on D - Mike Bires

AFC West News

USAT - As schedule toughens, Bolts ready to break out the Wildcat - Tom Pedulla

SDUT - Hardwick unlikely to play vs. Giants - Kevin Acee

FH - Chiefs Petition a Protest From the Heart - Dan Graziano

KCS - Bowe continues to be a work in progress - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Signs, LJ suspension a coincidence - Kent Babb

KCS - Sign in Chiefs’ locker room is a childish distraction - Jason Whitlock

NFP - Cable-vision: worth another look - Robert Boland

FH - Yankees' Blueprint a Lesson for Al Davis - Nancy Gay

SFC - Remember Raiders fans, things can get worse - Ray Ratto

SFC - New father Gallery will give line boost

OT - NOW wants Raiders coach Tom Cable suspended - Steve Corkran

NFL News

NFL - Week 9 injuries: Rodgers sits again (as planned)

NFL - Dolphins' Porter claims officials apply different rules to Pats' Brady

NFL - Colts' defense takes another hit with CB Jackson lost for season

NFL - Bucs will start QB-of-future Freeman while honoring creamsicle past

NFL - Spagnuolo sticking with veteran Bulger as Rams' starting QB

NFL - Man convicted of attempted murder in shooting of ex-Jag Collier

NFL - Paulescu to become fourth Redskins punter this season

NFL Opinion

USAT - Mid-year corrections: How NFL's 32 can readjust & recover - Nate Davis
"The offense should be more dynamic as coach Josh McDaniels' playbook opens up. But the defense might need to self-scout after cracking in Baltimore."

ESPN - First-half awards and a look at potential second-half stars - Adam Schefter
"This season, when using play-action, Roethlisberger has a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating, completing 25 of 29 passes for five touchdowns and no interceptions"

SN - Time may be running out for struggling NFL QBs - Dennis Dillon

SI - NFL sacks are on decline, thanks to NFL protecting quarterbacks - Kerry J. Byrne

CBS - Most improved: Wideouts Rice, Austin, Jackson top list - Pete Prisco

USAT - Week 9 NFL game previews

NFL - Manning-Schaub showdown highlights Week 9 matchups - Gil Brandt

SN - Week 9 picks: Eagles, Cowboys battle for NFC East lead - Vinnie Iyer
"Steelers 20, Broncos 17"

NFP - The Player's Picks: Week 9 - Matt Bowen
"It will be close, but Kyle Orton moves the Broncos down the field to set up the winning FG as time expires."

SI - The Peter King Challenge
"Prediction: Denver Broncos 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 13"

SN - NFL Football Picks - Week 9

SN - Head-to-head: Saints are NFL's better undefeated team - Clifton Brown

SN - Head-to-head: Colts are NFL's better undefeated team - Vinnie Iyer

FH - Thursday-and-Long: Don't Sleep on the Dallas Cowboys - Dan Graziano

NFP - What is Roy Williams thinking in Big D? - Matt Bowen
"I’m the No. 1 receiver. But things are just going No. 2’s way," Williams said. WOW.

SI - Green Bay Packers can blame coaches for loss to Minnesota Vikings - Ross Tucker

NFL - Star running back relishing role with rebuilding Rams - Steve Wyche

NFL - Character issues are serious concern for Syracuse's Williams - Bucky Brooks

Special "The Browns and Redskins are Rudderless Organizations" Section

SI - George Kokinis lost Cleveland Browns struggle with Eric Mangini - Don Banks

NFP - Tavern talk: Lerner says Mangini will be back - Mike Lombardi

Y! - Browns owner needs to look in the mirror - Charles Robinson

NFP - Diner morning news: ‘Skins need a new plan - Mike Lombardi
Yet another insightful look at what's wrong with the Redskins and Browns organizations. As is often the case, a must-read from Lombardi.

NFL - Blache passionately defends Redskins owner Snyder from criticism

The Curious Case of Matt Prater

2009-11-06T01:02:51Z

Editor's Note - More great stuff from the Fan Posts. You guys and gals are a talented group. Great post, and keep 'em coming! - Guru

Hey everyone, I have been an MHR member for a few months and am a life-long Broncos fan from Virginia. I love the site and try to comment as often as I can. However, up until now, I had not created my own post, but something I heard on Sirius NFL Radio this morning got me to thinking about our hot, cold, and everywhere in between kicker. Randy Cross, co-host of the Morning Drive, was talking about touchbacks and how a special teams coach often will tell their kicker a few weeks into the season to favor hang time instead of going for the touchback every time. He suggested that this saves the kicker's leg from getting too tired over the course of the season and helps to prevent a low line drive kick from being returned. This is an interesting point and could, note that word, have something to do with Prater's recent performance. Let's hope so because the alternative is not all that promising.

Now, there has been a lot of discussion about Prater's apparent struggles as of late. Touchbacks in the past few weeks are rarer than a Raiders fan in a college class. Hayooo. His field goals? Well, let's just say there is room for improvement, but how much? Is Prater already fading like he did down the stretch last season? Let's look at the numbers, but let me first be up front and tell you all that I am not a stats guy and don't even play one on TV. I made my analysis on the basis of simple logic and not sound statistical principles that I undoubtedly furrowed my brow at in a vain attempt to understand in some college stats class.

Prater started out great in 2008. Here are his stats from weeks 1-7 courtesy of NFL.com.

13 of 14 (93%) field goals and 12 touchbacks.

Unfortunately, Prater started to fade fairly significantly after the bye.

12 of 20 (60%) field goals and 7 touchbacks (only 2 from weeks 11-17).

Prater ultimately finished fairly average on the year.

25 of 34 (73.5%) field goals and 19 touchbacks

After the season, Prater told the press that his leg had fatigued and that it had affected his kicking down the stretch That certainly seems plausible. His field goal accuracy dropped. No, wait, plummeted. Actually, let's go with dropped precipitously. In addition, his touchbacks all but vanished late in the season. Prater said that he was preparing this year to ensure it would not happen again. So where does he stand today? This is a smaller sample size, but let's take a look.

Well, things started out pretty well in weeks 1-4.

8 of 10 (80%) field goals and 9 touchbacks

Unfortunately, things have been less rosy in weeks 5-8.

4 of 6 (67%) fields goals and 0 touchbacks

All and all, things are going a little better than last year.

12 of 16 (75%) field goals and 9 touchbacks

I keep using the word unfortunately, but, unfortunately, this minor improvement still puts Prater in the bottom third of the league in field goal percentage--the league average this year is about 82%. Plus, his lack of touchbacks could be an indication that his leg is going gimpy again, this time even earlier. Ever curious, I wanted some context for evaluating Prater's performance over the rest of the season, so I looked at five of the better kickers in the league (Akers, Kaeding, Gostkowski, Gould, and Janicowski). Yeah, yeah we could debate these selections, but just humor me on this. Oh and before you even start, weight issues, hair cut, and team affiliation aside, I included Janicowski not for his ability to put down a foot long sub, but for his ability to boot touchbacks. Over the course of the 2008 season, these kickers together on average made about 85% of their field goals and had about 15 touchbacks. If Prater is going to keep improving and be our long-term solution at the position, he needs to be at least in the neighborhood with these guys, in my opinion. That means better accuracy and no late season fade that would prevent the occasional touchback if it is called for by the coach.

So my question, could Prater's apparent struggles recently to kick the ball out of the back of the end zone be due to coaching to save his leg from getting fatigued like it did last year? I sure hope so. We all know McDaniels loves him some hang time. Just ask our former punter. I like Prater and think he can be a top kicker in this league. I just hope he is being coached to kick the ball high and isn't fading again.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos; Thursday Injury Report

2009-11-06T00:25:42Z

DENVER BRONCOS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Josh Barrett (S)	Hamstring	Did Not Participate
Ryan Harris (T)	Toe	Did Not Participate
Ryan McBean (DL)	Knee	Did Not Participate
David Bruton (S)	Groin	Limited Participation
Jack "MF" Williams (CB)	Illness	Limited Participation
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Player	Injury	Thur. Participation	Fri. Participation	Sat. Participation	Saturday Status
Travis Kirschke (DE)	Calf	Did Not Participate
Lawrence Timmons (LB)	Ankle	Did Not Participate

Horse Tracks 11/5/09 - McBean, J. Williams, Bruton miss practice; Clark unlikely to play for Steelers

2009-11-05T13:01:18Z

Thanks for all of your votes and input yesterday, folks! I think it provided enough feedback/encouragement to help make Horse Tracks a tighter ship, and I truly appreciate it. But just to be clear, I'm not looking to make Tracks easier/faster for myself. I'm just trying to cut the fat so I can add back in some commentary/snark where it's called for (ironically, not much today).

DB - Week 9 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DPP - Briefs: Broncos a big zero on opening drives this season - Lindsay Jones
OT Ryan Harris (out w/two dislocated toes), DE Ryan McBean (MCL), CB Jack Williams (unkown) and S David Bruton (ankle) missed practice.

CSG - Broncos notes: Altitude likely to sideline Steelers' Clark - Frank Schwab

DB - Déjà Vu All Over Again? - Gray Caldwell

DB - Ecstatic To Enter The Locker Room - Chris Gentilviso
Carlton Powell is thrilled to be back with the Broncos, while Lance Ball found a couple of familiar faces in Denver.

CBS - Rating big trade winners, losers at midseason - Clark Judge
"The move was supposed to say more about McDaniels than Cutler, and maybe it did. Maybe it said he knew what he was doing." My, how things have changed...

DB - Week 9 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 9 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

CSG - Broncos prepare for physical Steelers on Monday night - Frank Schwab

CSG - Nothing wasted on young coaches Tomlin, McDaniels - Frank Schwab

DPP - Krieger: Broncos pit their new physicality against the masters

DPP - Broncos brace for black-and-gold invasion by Steelers fans - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Broncos' running game vital against Pittsburgh - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Q&A: Broncos short-sighted in passing game - Jeff Legwold

DP - Orton expects Broncos to rebound against Steelers - Mike Chambers

KDVR - Broncos vs. Steelers Preview: Gadget plays may be a factor

DP - Woody's Mailbag: Can hurry-up help?

AP - Staggered Broncos Out To Avoid Losing Streak - Arnie Stapleton

DB - When Overtime Became Reality - Jim Saccomano
Sacco recalls the NFL's first OT game, which happened to be Broncos/Steelers at Mile High.

CBS4 - Broncos To Honor Vets, Active Duty Military Monday

Steelers News

PPG - On the Steelers: Injured Kirschke unlikely to play - Ed Bouchette
Old friend (barely) Nick Eason will be starting at LDE in place of the injured Aaron Smith and Travis Kirschke.

Y! - Another Clark episode not worth the risk - Charles Robinson

FH - Hines Ward's the NFL's Dirtiest Player? - J.J. Cooper

SI - Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL's dirtiest player, peers say - Richard Deitsch
Troy Polamalu also made the list; BMarsh received one vote from the 296 players polled

SN - Knock on Troy Polamalu: huge hitter but not a textbook tackler - Dennis Dillon

BCT - Steelers' Starks can make 2009 even better - Mike Bires

AFC West News

FH - NFL Oddly Quiet About Larry Johnson, Tom Cable and Personal Conduct - Nancy Gay

ESPN - Dangerous Player: Darren Sproles, Chargers RB - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Rivers, Manning forever linked by draft - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Hardwick practices; Sunday return possible - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Chambers sought legal help vs. ex-girlfriend - Brent Schrotenboer

SFC - Cable's job appears safe, at least for now - David White

SFC - Gwen Knapp: Davis needs to hear out allegations

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Satele wins job - David White

OT - Monte Poole: Oakland Raiders -- Weird is the new normal

KCS - Chiefs believe Chambers can help them - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Page placed on injured reserve - Kent Babb

KCS - Messages from team and fans directed at Larry Johnson - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Wednesday Injury Reports

Y! - Thomas shoots down strike talk rumors - Jason Cole

NFL Opinion

SN - Confluence of influence: NFL coaches praise mentors - Dennis Dillon
McD on Belichick, Kubes on Shanny

FOX - Not all injury absences are created equal - Alex Marvez
Marvez thinks the injuries to Nick Hardwick and Jamal Williams (although big) are why the Dolts have had a slow start (NORV). Right (NORV). And why did they have a slow start last year (NORV)? Just as a reminder, Marty was fired after going 14-2. Hmm. What could it be? (NORV)

NFL - Saints and Colts are 7-0, but is quest for perfection realistic? - Pat Kirwan

NFL - It's time to wonder: Are these teams who we thought they were? - Steve Wyche

ESPN - NFL: Division races lack usual sizzle - John Clayton

FH - Zebra Report: 'Instant' Replays No More - Matt Snyder

SI - Dallas Cowboys rising in Week 9 NFL Power Rankings - Don Banks

FOX - Week 9 Cheat Sheet: NFL picks and predictions - Peter Schrager
"The Pick: Steelers 28, Broncos 13"

NYT - Week 9 Game Probabilities, and a Forecast for Giants-Chargers - Brian Burke

NFP - Tavern talk: Giants struggle to solve problems - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Defensive failures at root of Giants' three-game losing streak - Bucky Brooks

NFP - Scheme Session: the big play Eagles - Matt Bowen

NFP - Darren Sharper for MVP? - Matt Bowen

Special "What's Wrong in Cleveland" Section

FH - Dirty Dozen: What Have They Done With The Browns? - Dave Goldberg

PFW - Browns fumbling away another season - Tom Danyluk

NFP - Wednesday whys: Will Kokinis get paid by the Browns? - Andrew Brandt

NFP - The mess in Cleveland gets worse - Robert Boland

NFP - A lesson learned in Cleveland - Jack Bechta
More excellent insight here

Potent Quotables - The Wednesday Media Gathering

2009-11-05T04:55:55Z

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Browse more photos »

**Courtesy of the Denver Broncos P.R. Staff

HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

Opening remarks

"We are excited to get back at work, getting ready to play a great football team, the defending Super Bowl champion, on Monday Night Football. It will be a great challenge ahead of us this week to prepare and get ready to play a game against a team that has very, very few, if any, weaknesses. We are going to have to play our best football in order to have an opportunity to beat them on Monday night."

On if Baltimore presented physical mismatches for the Broncos

"We didn't play the way that we are capable of playing, and that is not an excuse. Baltimore forced us to play the way we played. They deserve credit. We talked about it the other day. We have got to do much better, but it is not about matchups. We have enough players out there that can match up physically with anybody in this league. We didn't play as well as we can."

On Pittsburgh's physical style of play

"(Pittsburgh) is a very physical team in every phase. To me, that is where it starts with the Steelers. If you are going to get out-physicaled offensively, defensively (and) in the kicking game, you are going to have a hard time winning. They are definitely going to challenge you in every area. Every one of their players plays like that. I don't care if it is the kickoff returner, the kicker, the tight ends, the lines, whomever it is, (Pittsburgh QB Ben) Roethlisberger, they are all physical players that play tough and are going to present that challenge to us individually and as a team collectively."

On the Broncos' need to start games faster

"We are going to try to adjust it every day that we are here. It has been a multitude of different reasons, whether it be execution of a simple thing or a decision we made, a bad call on our part. A mistake here or there changes the beginning of the game just like it will the end of a game. We have got to play really good football in the first quarter from the first play on if we want to start fast. That starts in practice (by) building that mentality that our first individual period is going to be a good period and our first team period is going to be a good period, and we are not going to make a bunch of mistakes and wait until halfway through practice to get going. We have got to continue to try to build that mentality through our work on the field here. Hopefully, that mentality and that state of mind will carry over into good execution to begin the games each week."

On playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football following the Broncos' first loss

"It is an opportunity for us is what it is. We haven't lost before and now we have. We learned a lot of things about ourselves through this process the last couple days. There are plenty of things that we need to fix and improve on quickly in order to play and compete against a great football team on a great stage. We are excited to be here today to start that process with our players, and we hopefully have a great week of preparation and go out there and play our best game on Monday night."

On Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisbeger's winning mentality

"I think sometimes you can kind of get an idea of how much winning drives a certain person. I think their history and their past and the teams that they have been involved in, if they win 90 percent of the time (or) 80 percent of the time and they have been a big reason why those teams are successful, then I think you can go ahead and associate them with being a winner. That is what they have done. Their past will tell you much about them. He has always been that way since he was a rookie. He was a rookie and he won a bunch of games. (He has) now (won) two Super Bowls. This guy is different than other quarterbacks but better than most in that he wins more games than everybody else does and wins the big ones. When his team needs him to play well, he really does. He is going to be a great challenge for us this week. (He is) certainly one of the premiere players in the league."

On if Pittsburgh Head Coach Mike Tomlin's success at a young age showed him he could be successful

"He is a great role model for all coaches in this league, young coaches (and) older coaches alike. He is very, very intelligent (and) has a great background history. He learned from a bunch of really great men in this league and does a great job of teaching (and) motivating his players (and) his team. His team is always well prepared. His team is always going to play with great emotion and energy. You never see them with a lack of effort, and I think that is a testament to what he does on a weekly basis or a daily basis with his football team. He is a positive influence on a lot of people. That didn't really affect whether or not I thought I could do this or not, but (he is) certainly a guy that most of us would emulate, winning a Super Bowl in his second year and being as successful as he has been so far in his coaching career."

On S Renaldo Hill's performance this year

"Renaldo is a very consistent player. He practices the same way. He always does his job, for the most part, very well. He protects the deep part of the field (and) is very dependable for us. He has been a decent tackler over his career, and that is exactly what we have seen here. A safety's job in our defense is to prevent touchdowns, and he has done a good job of doing that, for the most part, in every situation that he could be involved in. I don't know that there is a player on our team that is more prepared on a weekly basis. When you listen to our practices, he is calling out most of the things before they actually happen. There are not many players in the league that can take in all the information, all the preparation that you try to give the players and then go out there and apply it without slowing them down. He is one of those players that can do that and helps other players out while he is out there trying to do his job, too. (He is) everything we thought we were getting and then some. (He is) a guy that, I think, a lot of people look up to on our team."

On Pittsburgh's offense having a different style than in previous years

"I would disagree. The numbers may tell you that they are a different type of team, but this is as physical of an offensive line (and) physical running back as we are going to play. They can do either (running or passing plays). It just so happens they have gotten into a few games where they went ahead and made the decision to pass the ball more often than run it or the score indicated that they go ahead and do that. This is a team that can do whatever they want to on offense, and you have got to stop everything. You have got to stop the running game. You have got to stop (Pittsburgh RB Rashard) Mendenhall. They have got (Pittsburgh RB) Willie Parker. Then (Pittsburgh TE) Heath Miller is fourth in the league or third in the league in catches. They have got a bunch of big-play receivers. That is really how Pittsburgh has played all along. I just think right now the thing that is sticking out to everybody is the statistical numbers in the passing game (that) make everybody feel like this has become a one-dimensional passing team, and that is very far from the truth. I think if you don't stop the running game, you are going to have a big problem. You can try to stop one aspect and make them play the other way, but they have shown the ability to do either one effectively. You have got to play good sound defense and not give up big plays. They have got so many players on offense that make those kind of plays, explosive plays (and) score touchdowns from a long distance that if you fall asleep on one play, you could be in trouble. This is a team that tests you on every down in every way you can imagine. There is a reason why they were Super Bowl champions last year, and there is a reason why they are one of the best teams in the league on a regular basis. I didn't mean to disagree with you that way. I am just saying that it is not really the case. They can do a lot of things that they have done in the past very well, and they can throw it, run it, short, deep, scramble, gadgets, reverses-you have got to be ready for everything against this team or you are going to get taken advantage of."

QB KYLE ORTON

On lessons from the Baltimore game that apply to Pittsburgh

"If you play a good team and don't execute very well, then you are going to have trouble. (That is a) huge priority in practice this week, making sure we have three or four great practices and to be on top of things and be ready to go by Monday."

On why the offense has started games slow

"(There is) kind of just a lack of execution to start the game. It is going to be a critical point in this game. These guys are probably the best starters in all of football for the last few years. We certainly can't expect to win if we are down 10-0 or 14-0 to start off the game. We are going to have to figure it out and get it going by Monday."

On if a set number of offensive plays were scripted to open a game when he played in Chicago

"We had a script (in Chicago), but the guys (in Denver) should have a pretty good feel for what is going to be called early in the game. We go over it. Some of these extra days that we have had, we have gone over our first calls or first third-down calls and all that, so that is not an excuse. We certainly know the plays that we are calling early in the game and certainly should be able to execute them."

On why there are so many NFL quarterbacks with unique skill sets

"I don't know. To play the other positions, you have got to be physically as gifted as everyone else, obviously. I think just the quarterback position there are different styles of play. Some guys are pocket passers, some guys are runners, some guys play with their head (and), some guys rely on physical abilities. (There is) a mix bag that you can get at this position, and guys play accordingly."

On what disappointed him about the Baltimore game

"Everything. I don't think anybody on offense could be satisfied with their play. We didn't pass the ball. We didn't run the ball. We didn't block them. We didn't do anything. We have our work cut out for us this week."

On facing Pittsburgh after the Broncos' first loss of the season

"Every week in this league is a test, but when you are playing a team like Pittsburgh who has had the success that they've had-speaking for the offense, this has been a great defense probably for the last 30 years so nothing has changed. We are going to have to play physical, we are going to have to play smart and we are going to have to play our best game."

On playing on Monday Night Football

"Guys like to play on primetime, and you can say it or not, but there is extra emotion on Monday night games and we will be excited and we will be ready to go."

On playing physical teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh in consecutive games

"(Baltimore) beat us up pretty good, no question about it. We feel like we have a physical football team, and certainly, Pittsburgh prides themselves on that, too. It will be a hard-hitting game, and whoever can win that battle will have a good chance to win."

On what the most important factors for the game are

"It is about everything. It is about matchups. It is about attitude. It is about practice. You can't just kind of (take) practice off for three or four days and expect to go out and play a physical game."

On T Tyler Polumbus

"We expect anybody that is going to be out on the field to come out and perform, and I am sure Tyler will have a great week of practice and be ready to go."

On the similarities between Pittsburgh's and Baltimore's defense

"(Baltimore was) fast. Pittsburgh is fast. When you are not executing and not playing like you would want to, you make the defense obviously look that much better. These guys don't need any help. They are a very good defense and they will be ready to go for us."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward

"(He is) just a guy that you know is going to bring a certain intensity to every game. It takes a special guy playing the receiver position to do what he does as far as mixing it up with safeties, cornerbacks and even linebackers, sometimes. Not being afraid to do it, it takes a special guy with a lot of want-to in him, and he definitely has that."

On if Ward is crafty

"He knows how to work his leverage. He knows how to work, putting his body in position to body a guy out and make tight, tight catches. He is just a gamer. Game in and game out, year in and year out, from the day he stepped onto the field, he has been somebody that opened eyes early and continues to open eyes now."

On Pittsburgh's physical style of play

"This is a team that is built on tough, physical guys. From before I was born, they have been playing a certain way, and that hasn't changed to this day. Last week was last week. We did some things in the second half that were not like us defensively. (We were) getting out of our gaps-I think we were trying to do too much towards the end-and we gave up some scores that we usually don't give up. We learned from those mistakes, and we are going to move forward this week to make sure that those mistakes don't creep up if the game is a close one toward the end."

On if the Broncos can match up physically with anybody

"It is about us doing what we do. We are not trying to match somebody. We are trying to be who we are. When you are trying to match somebody, to me, that is saying that they are a team that is above you, or you are trying to build up to them. We are who we are, and if we go out and do what we are supposed to do, we feel like we have a chance to win every game."

On Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes

"Obviously, we always point toward Hines and what he does, (Pittsburgh QB) Ben (Roethlisberger) and what he does for this team, being able to keep plays alive, and (that they are) a physical team, but (Holmes) has been doing some work out there. I don't know if it is going unnoticed by a lot of people, but not to me, even when I played him last year when I was with the Eagles. I knew where he was because usually, I was to his side. I know the playmaking potential that he has when he gets the ball in his hands to break tackles and then that game-breaking receiver deep threat that he can be. I don't look past this guy, not even a little bit, because I know how much he brings to the table."

On Roethlisberger

"I think he just became more and more comfortable in what he was already able to do. Once you do some things and you see a lot of success from doing it, you are obviously going to continue to do it. Some of the things that he is doing now, I don't know if he would have tried to do in the beginning, but he sees that the things are working now, pumping the ball and being able to keep the play alive. A lot of times they are giving up sacks, but a lot of that is because he believes so much in his ability to break tackles and keep the play alive that he will hold the ball a little longer. I think that is just all about him and his comfort level and his confidence in his ability."

On if Roethlisberger is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league

"Absolutely, (he has) too many drives, especially being able to keep the plays alive and making big plays when he needed to. You saw it last year. You saw it in the Super Bowl, so you know this guy can get the job done. It is going to be a whistle-to-whistle game. We try to play whistle-to-whistle anyway, but when you have a quarterback with the potential to break tackles and keep the play alive, then for the secondary, it is definitely a whistle-to-whistle game for us."

On OLB/DE Elvis Dumervil

"First of all, it is want-to, believing in himself and what his God-given abilities are, and then just going out and listening to what (Defensive Coordinator) Mike (Nolan) is telling him to do and believing that it is going to be where Mike says it is going to be. From there, the guy has some talent, regardless. Outside of moving him to wherever you want to move him, there are certain things that Elvis can do, and we know one of those things is rush the passer with the best of them."

On Dumervil's improvement since last season

"I have only been behind him this year, so all I have seen is Elvis working and doing what he does. I wasn't here last year to see how he played last year to this year."

On if Dumervil has improved from the first time he saw him

"If he was uncomfortable, let's just say it was hard for me to tell."

On similarities between Dumervil and Pittsburgh ROLB James Harrison

"Obviously, they are guys that are lower to the ground already-some people call them short (but) I will just say they are lower to the ground-and that gives them an advantage. It really does because there are not too many 6-7 guys that are going to be able to get down, get lower than them to get the leverage back. They are going to play the game most of the time with the leverage already in their favor. Then both of those guys have motors. I am talking about (they) won't stop until the whistle is blown or until they get close enough to the quarterback to do what they have to do, and that is to bring him down. Both of those guys are built of the same kind of mold, as far as the motors, the low build and once again, I will bring up that word ‘want-to'. Both of them want to have success and actually believe in themselves that they will be able to do it."

On Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu

"Troy is all over the place. I love it. He is just one of those guys that I would put on film and I just love to watch him play. I am not ashamed or afraid to say that I put on some tapes and watch those guys to see what he does and see if I can steal some things. That is how great of a safety he is. Moving around, not afraid to show different disguises and being able to get to his deep third or deep half, all of those things confuse the offense. We all know that, but the thing that sets those guys apart is their play-making potential when the ball is in the air to close on it and to get it. He and (Baltimore S) Ed (Reed) are blessed with the ability to be able to do that. I think (New Orleans S) Darren Sharper is another guy, same type of thing. When the ball is in the air, for a lot of us it is PBUs (pass breakups). For those guys, it is interceptions. The opportunity for him to make plays is always there, so you always have to know where he is. He is definitely a guy that I love to watch."

On potentially going to the Pro Bowl at safety in the AFC

"If that happens, it happens. My desire first is to help this team. If helping this team gets me over there, then I will welcome it, but I already knew what we have over here. It is not just those guys. We have some pretty good safeties. There is a safety over there with the Patriots (S Brandon Meriweather) that is doing some good things. There are some good safeties over here, and I think that is a great thing."

MHR Radio - Karl Mecklenburg joins me LIVE TONIGHT! - 10PM et / 8PM mt

2009-11-05T02:08:49Z

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6-time Pro Bowler Karl Mecklenburg joins me to talk about the Broncos, what he's up to, and his new book!

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The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 8

2009-11-04T18:00:27Z

"Sure, The Stats That Don't Lie could have stayed in the past. They could have even been king. But in their own way, they ARE king. Hail to the king, baby."

--Bruce Campbell

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Week 8 was Halloween weekend in the NFL. There were some tricks (more teams rolling out The Wildcat), there were some treats (Brett Favre's saccharine-laced, I love Green Bay speech), but 8 week will be best known for the number of teams that got carved up like pumpkins.

Including your Denver Broncos. In what appeared to be the most ghoulish of all acts, Denver dressed up like the Oakland Raiders and scared its fans by losing all of the important statistical battles.

Welcome to The Stats That Don't Lie for Week 8. Your headless horseman of stats. The razor blade in your statistical candy apple. These are the stats that keep Freddy Krueger up all night. Again, they are: Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd Down Efficiency.

As always, for those that need a primer, or want to look at the stats from previous weeks, just click on the following links (Raiders fans, just stare at the screen really, really hard):

As you can imagine, the Broncos took a nosedive after this week in their rankings.

WEEK 7 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 1st (tied with Green Bay)

Average Starting Field Position: 23rd

Average Time of Possession: 9th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 12th

WEEK 8 - Broncos' Rankings

Average Turnovers/Game: 2nd (tied with New England and Indianapolis)

Average Starting Field Position: 26th

Average Time of Possession: 13th

Average 3rd Down Efficiency: 19th

These rankings reveal a dangerous game Denver continues to play. On average, they are starting drives on the 26.92-yard line, so they are not helping themselves (or Kyle Orton) with a short field. You saw this again against the Ravens on Sunday. Denver's average starting field position was the 20.55-yard line. For all of his juking and twists and spins, Eddie Royal would have done as well by simply letting the ball fly through the end zone. In Eddie's defense, the return game was garbage.

Another disturbing trend is Denver's 3rd-down efficiency, which stands (avg. per game) at 37.18%, right at the league average. If Denver is going to be an above-average team, its 3rd-down efficiency need to be above average. Indianapolis stands at over 50% on 3rd downs and New Orleans is at 46.43%, in case you were wondering. Both of these teams have Super Bowl aspirations. If Denver has these same aspirations, they can begin with improving on 3rd down.

Others have pointed out the two-part problem in this. One, Denver is getting less yards on 1st and 2nd downs, putting them in more difficult 3rd-and-long situations. This is certainly the risk/reward you take when you pass on 1st down. Two, Denver is simply not converting the 3rd downs they should. I'll leave it to you to decide if this is due to the transition from a zone-blocking scheme to a power-blocking scheme. Lastly, it's clear from watching the game on Sunday; the Ravens were jumping almost every Level-2 route Denver was running. I'm not joking when I say it was almost as if the Ravens had two weeks to study Denver's tendencies and routes...oh wait, they did.

On a positive note, Denver continues to do an excellent job of not turning the ball over, despite the Moreno fumble on Sunday. Even Orton cannibals have to admit the preseason worry of Orton throwing pick after pick is not going to happen.

Through Week 8, here are the rankings of the 32 teams in the four statistical categories:

Notice how well-balanced teams like New England, Minnesota, and New Orleans are, ranking in single digits in all categories (except New Orleans in turnovers). It should not be a surprise that these three teams are early favorites to go all the way.

Before getting into the Week 8 numbers, a few of the games are of note. Of course, the Broncos-Ravens game is a classic statistical domination and a good example of what happens when you get beat in all four of these categories. The Ravens' average starting field position in the game was the 40-yard line (with the return for TD, the 35 without). You simply can't give anyone in this league that kind of field position and expect to win (perhaps the Raiders, but that's it). Also, Baltimore was a massive 61% on 3rd downs. Throw in the additional turnover, and it became a sackful of tainted candy for the Broncos.

Another game of note and interest was the Minnesota/Green Bay game, and not just for the obvious Favre homecoming. Minnesota's average starting field position in the game was their own 46.33-yard line. That's how you overcome two turnovers. Field position just kills teams, whether they are at home or not.

Lastly, our lives would not be complete without talking about the Bears. Cutler threw another red-zone pick in the game against Cleveland, but when the other team is 9% on 3rd downs and you start your drives (on average) at the 40-yard line, you'll do just fine in the NFL. If only Jeff George had had such luck (draw your own conclusions).

Here are the Week 8 summaries:

2-Turnover Rule (Turn it over more than once and you're going down, sucka!)

5 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (80%)
8 teams had 1 turnover. 4 won (50%)
7 teams had 2 turnovers. Only 3 won (42%)
3 teams had 3 turnovers. 1 won (33%%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%)
2 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%)

Week 8 Game Summaries:

The team that won the turnover battle won 9 of 13 games played (69%).
In the previous category, remove the ties and this changes to 54%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 13 games played (69%).
The team that had better third down efficiency won 10 of the 13 games played (77%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 9 of the 13 games played (69%).
There were 4 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 4 of the 4, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 41 out of 42 games.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.31 turnovers, 32:28 in time of possession, 48.05% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 33.60 yard line.

Top 5 in Week 8:

Top 5 in giveaways: 5 tied with 0
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.TEN 2.HOU 3.CHI 4.NYG 5.DAL
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.SD 2.BAL 3.NO 4.PHI 5.DAL/HOU (tied)
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.MIN 2.PHI 3.BAL 4.CHI 5.GB

Running Totals, Season (through 8 weeks):

116 games have been played this season
83.62% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
68.97% with a better time of possession
68.10% by the team who won on 3rd down
72.41% by the team that won the field position battle.

8-week Averages for Benchmarking This Week's Games:

8-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

8-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:12 (thanks to numerous OT games)

8-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.13%

8-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.41 yard line

Here are the individual game stats from Week 8:

Looking ahead to Pittsburgh, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd Down Efficiency

Denver .86 30:51 26.96 37.18%

Pittsburgh 2.00 32:42 28.10 43.21%

Given the significant correlation between the turnover battle and winning, you have to like Denver in this game. Pittsburgh just gives it up (on average) way too much. Add in the fact that the home team wins about 60% of the time generally, this one certainly bodes well for Kyle (that's Mr. Orton if you're nasty) and the Hoodie.

Go Broncos!!!

Last Stat: 68.5% (percentage chance that Brian Dawkins can kill a Raiders fan just by staring at IT)

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MHR Radio - Karl Mecklenburg joins me LIVE TONIGHT! - 10PM et / 8PM mt

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 8