Mile High Report

Some Clarification is in Order: What Does One Yard Cost?

2012-05-16T20:00:05Z

This off-season we've discussed a very large number of topics as we've tried to keep busy during the down time. Now my desire to learn more about topics has lead me to do a lot of my own research. This have lead to a lot of articles, one of which dealt with salary and winning. It was started by a fanshot that Kirk posted with a quote from former GM Brian Xanders about how the Broncos would be more active in free agency. The comments quickly developed into a great discussion of the balance of spending and it's affect on wins. I wrote my article to build upon the discussion with a few numbers and discussion points. The main conclusion I gained from my earlier study was this:

Here we see a bit clearer picture, teams that spent efficiently also won. Teams that spent a lot of money AND spent it well won games more than those who just SPEND or those who just use money EFFICIENTLY. This is the key, while spending money is very likely to help you win, there is more volatility, or a larger difference between the top 10 when just looking at spending compared to a low volatility in the Cost per Win.

To summarize, if you spend you are more likely to win, but if you spend and spend that money efficiently, you are set.

But there is more to this than just base salary numbers. I wanted to see which players were cost efficient, which players produced but cost a lot and which players were just overpaid and never played well. To do this I set out to try a variety of metrics to measure cost efficiency.. Now this won't be a comprehensive study across all positions since some positions are incredibly hard to look at, but I hope this provides a starting point of discussion, and I will be trying to complete a study of all positions, when that happens I'll publish the results at that time.

Methodology:

This study went through a large number of phases and I'll only be presenting my most current form due to space. Now I wanted to look at this from a few different sides. The first was I wanted to look at a team and see which players on that team played up to their contract, and also see those that didn't. Secondly I wanted to see the level of efficiency of all the players at a certain position, quarterback or running back for example. We'll start by looking at a single team, we'll look at the Broncos for obvious reasons. On this table well be organizing the table in this order:

*How the column will be labeled on the table will be in ()*

- Players name (Player)
- Position the player plays at (Position)
- 2011 Salary effect on the teams cap (2011 Salary Cap Hit)
- Whether the player was drafted to the team or whether they came through other methods (Draft/Other)
- Approximate Value based on Pro Football References studies (AV)
- Approximate Value of that player divided by the teams total Approximate Value (AV %)
- Percentage of the total salary cap that the player occupies (% of Total Salary Cap Hit)

Before we begin I should explain a few things and issue a few clarifications. The first thing I want to discuss is something some of you may be already thinking about, "Why are there no other categories like sacks, touchdowns, etc?" Well the reason for this was I wanted to be able to compare the whole team looking for value, but you make a valid point, especially if you wanted to find the best value at linebacker or running back on the team. And this will be something we'll discuss in the second part of this series. But for now I just wanted to compare the whole team.

The second thing I wanted to discuss deals with the salary numbers. now I got them from Rotoworld, which is considered the most reliable place for these numbers. But that isn't the main point, what I want to discuss here is the nature of contracts.

Contracts, Experience and Value

When Chris Johnson first came into the league he was making decent money for a running back, but after two outstanding seasons, he knew his value was just too good for his contract and he held out of the 2011 season as a result until he got a new contract. Rookie players are always going to be a better value than experienced players because while they may be producing at a similar level, or just below, very good players, they are still riding on their rookie contracts which are usually lower than veterans. Let's look at Andy Dalton and Rex Grossman. Last season Dalton earned $495,000 while Grossman earned $1,500,000. Now that just may seem strange considering the struggles of Grossman compared to Dalton's production and potential, but it is even more complex than that. The Bengals paid Dalton $23,571 per touchdown while the Redskins paid Grossman $88,235 per touchdown. I simply divided the players salary by the number of touchdowns to create this number. Dalton had 4 more touchdowns than Grossman and was paid less to do it. Now this is where one of the key struggles begins.

When looking at this just in terms of yards or touchdowns, while it is a useful metric since it helps us bring conformity to the scale, but it struggles since a contract isn't just purely for touchdowns or yards or sacks (unless you are a kicker or a punter then you are literally paid per field goal or punt), most players are paid to accomplish a number of tasks. Having said that dollars per yard or tackle are still viable methods of measuring value, though they are flawed, and I'll gladly admit that.

But getting back to contracts, to put it simply, rookies will almost always be a good value with a few notable exceptions. The two biggest will be Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford since they were the final two #1 picks at quarterback so their contracts are massive. Stafford had a great season so he still had solid value, but considering Bradford struggled this season, his value is greatly reduced due to his massive contract. But as we look at the tables in these next few articles, you'll be able to clearly see who is still on their rookie contract compared to those who are on their second or third contracts.

Approximate Value:

Having noted the weaknesses of dollars per yard, I wanted to find a better metric that could be applied across all positions so there would be conformity. I studied a variety of metrics ranging from Pro Football Focus's ratings to Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability Add and Football Outsiders' Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, in th end I ended up using a few of these depending on the position, but one that stuck and was reliable with little variance was Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV).

Now I won't get into the nitty-gritty of AV with you since the math is fairly complex and time consuming, but here are the links to how it is formed for those who want to check it out:

- Overview
- Methodology
- Applications of AV, along with Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.
- Adjustments

AV was created by Doug Drinen and refined by Neil Paine and Chase Stuart, AV was created with the purpose of creating a metric that allows the comparison of differing positions. Prior to AV their weren't really any overarching metrics for this. DYAR and DVOA can't be applied to every positions, same can be said for WPA and EPA. That really just leaves games started, Pro Bowls and All-Pros. Even these have weaknesses since games started does indicate some value, it doesn't say that J.D. Walton was a worse center than Jeff Saturday despite both playing 16 games. The Pro Bowl is just a popularity contest that still does a decent job of measure talent, while All-Pro is very limiting since only one quarterback can achieve it per season. Before I go much further I want to insert the introduction the creator of AV had for his product:

AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV.

Essentially, AV is a substitute for --- and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion --- metrics like 'number of seasons as a starter' or 'number of times making the pro bowl' or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. That is, 'number of seasons as a starter' is a reasonable starting point if you're trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. But obviously some starters are better than others. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. Starters who made the pro bowl are, as a group, better than starters who didn't, and so on. And non-starters aren't worthless, so they get some points too.

As Doug said, this isn't a be-all, end-all metric, but it is the best way I've found at comparing a players value across positions, no other metric or number of even eye test does that. Now I don't have the space here to go into the detail, that took the author dozens of articles to cover, but the basis of AV is a top down approach to grading. A team's offense and defense are assigned a number of "points" based on the level of success of each unit. So a team like the 2011 Patriots offense would have more points than their defense due to the offense being better than their defense. Using these unit totals (which are formed from a formula derived from a huge amount of data and research by nearly a dozen researchers) the totals are broken up among the players on that unit based on more formulas for each position. While I won't list each formula (they are under the methodology article above) they are accurate.

While I know many don't care for stats, which is fine, almost everyone can agree on one thing, measuring success, or failure, is the only real point of stats, and AV is incredible accurate at this. Since 2000 the team that has the high AV won the game 93% of the time. AV is an incredibly powerful, accurate and useful metric since it measures a teams overall strength as well as players on that team. As Doug stated, a 16 won't always be better than a 14, but they will USUALLY be better. The wider the margin between two AV's the more often the player is better, same can be said for teams.

I understand that some will not like this metric, that's fine, but it is the best one out there for comparisons so I'll be using it anyways. Another thing to note, AV doesn't track special teams so we'll be missing a few players who only saw the field on ST:
-Quan Crosby
- Matt Prater
- Britton Colquitt
- Lonie Paxton

The Table:

Now I didn't take every player the Broncos had on their roster last season, rather I only listed those who saw 50 or more snaps or players that were at key positions but may have not seen the field (Brady Quinn for instance).

Player	Position	2011 Salary Cap Hit (In $)	Draft/Other	AV	% AV	% of Total Salary Cap Hit
Ayers, Robert	DE	880000	Draft	6	3.19%	0.89%
Bailey, Champ	CB	6000000	Other	12	6.38%	11.63%
Ball, Lance	RB	405000	Other	3	1.60%	0.41%
Beadles, Zane	OG	405000	Draft	5	2.66%	1.02%
Bruton, David	S	480000	Draft	2	1.06%	0.61%
Bunkley, Brodrick	DT	635000	Other	6	3.19%	0.64%
Bush, Rafeal	DB	405000	Other	0	0.00%	0.41%
Carter, Quinton	S	405000	Draft	4	2.13%	0.59%
Clady, Ryan	OT	1105000	Draft	6	3.19%	1.63%
Carter, Tony	DB	405000	Other	0	0.00%	0.41%
Clark, Chris	OT	405000	Other	3	1.60%	0.41%
Dawkins, Brian	S	6000000	Other	5	2.66%	6.07%
Decker, Eric	WR	1163037	Draft	6	3.19%	1.17%
Dumervil, Elvis	DE	14500000	Draft	10	5.32%	14.66%
Fells, Daniel	TE	1500000	Other	4	2.13%	1.52%
Franklin, Orlando	OT	795000	Draft	6	3.19%	0.80%
Goodman, Andre	CB	2880000	Other	7	3.72%	2.91%
Green, Virgil	TE	379320	Draft	1	0.53%	0.38%
Haggan, Mario	LB	1930000	Other	2	1.06%	1.95%
Harris, Chris	CB	466000	Other	3	1.60%	0.47%
Harvey, Derrick	DL	600000	Other	1	0.53%	0.61%
Hochstein, Russ	OG	865000	Other	1	0.53%	0.87%
Hunter, Jason	DE	715000	Other	3	1.60%	0.72%
Irving, Nate	LB	548750	Draft	1	0.53%	0.55%
Johnson, Jeremiah	RB	465000	Other	1	0.53%	0.47%
Kuper, Chris	OG	7000000	Draft	5	2.66%	7.08%
Larsen, Spencer	FB	555000	Draft	2	1.06%	0.56%
Lloyd, Brandon	WR	1395000	Other	2	1.06%	1.41%
Mays, Joe	LB	555000	Other	6	3.19%	0.56%
McBean, Ryan	DT	480000	Other	3	1.60%	0.49%
McCarthy, Kyle	DB	405000	Other	0	0.00%	0.41%
McGahee, Willis	RB	2500000	Other	7	3.72%	2.53%
Miller, Von	LB	3800000	Draft	12	6.38%	3.84%
Moore, Rahim	S	807500	Draft	3	1.60%	0.82%
Moreno, Knowshon	RB	1832000	Draft	2	1.06%	1.85%
Orton, Kyle	QB	8480000	Other	2	1.06%	8.57%
Quinn, Brady	QB	700000	Other	0	0.00%	0.71%
Ramirez, Manny	OG	455000	Other	0	0.00%	0.46%
Rosario, Dante	TE	550000	Other	2	1.06%	0.56%
Royal, Eddie	WR	555000	Draft	2	1.06%	0.56%
Tebow, Tim	QB	4768750	Draft	8	4.26%	4.80%
Thomas, Demaryius	WR	2327500	Draft	4	2.13%	2.35%
Thomas, Julius	TE	471000	Draft	0	0.00%	0.48%
Thomas, Marcus	DT	1000000	Draft	6	3.19%	1.01%
Unrein, Mitch	DL	415000	Other	1	0.53%	0.42%
Vaughn, Cassius	CB	405000	Other	2	1.06%	0.41%
Vickerson, Kevin	DL	1375000	Other	2	1.06%	1.39%
Walton, J.D.	C	604625	Draft	5	2.66%	0.61%
Wilhite, Jonathon	DB	405000	Other	2	1.06%	0.41%
Williams, D.J.	LB	4900000	Draft	7	3.72%	4.95%
Willis, Matt	WR	480000	Other	2	1.06%	0.49%
Woodyard, Wesley	LB	455000	Other	4	2.13%	0.46%

Notes

Now obviously the fact that Robert Ayers outplayed his contract is nice, but that doesn't mean he was a better player than Champ Bailey, whose contract was so big that it would really be impossible to balance out his AV and contract. So finding a balance of good AV and outplaying salary is key. We'll use Ayers again, he had a solid season with 6 AV (3.19% of the team's total AV) and did it with a fairly cheap contract (0.89% of the team's total cap hit). Whereas someone like Virgil Green didn't contribute much with 1 AV (0.53% of the teams total AV) but the standards weren't very high either due to his draft spot (7th round) and his salary (0.38% of the teams total cap hit). Other players, like Elvis Dumervil had a massive contract (14.66% of the teams total cap hit) but due to a slow start and injuries wasn't able to live up to his contract. Doesn't mean he was bad, just didn't play at the level he was paid too.

With this we get into another discussion point, is it worth it to overpay a player at a key position because you can't risk losing him? That is the whole idea behind the Franchise Tag. Along those lines I know that when we resigned Champ Bailey that our own John Bena wasn't a big fan of the move because at that time we really didn't have a pass rush and he felt we could acquire another corner at the top of the draft. Now whether he was right or not really doesn't matter, but many feel that overpaying, especially at non-premium positions, can hurt the team overall. I don't have a clear answer, I don't think anyone does, outside of it depends on the situation and the player.

Overall, while this method does have weaknesses, I feel it is a good place to start. I wouldn't dream of saying this is the final, complete look at the Broncos roster and value. I know I am personally looking a number of ways to improve this model:

- Introducing league averages per position
- Long term looks at positions and players
- How various coaches and GM's handle it
- Tracking a players value across multiple seasons and contracts

These are a few of the things we'll be discussing in future articles, hope that this can start a discussion and hope to answer more questions as we work our way through this topic together.

Broncos 2012 Opponents Progress - NFC South - The Buccaneers

2012-05-16T17:00:41Z

The final installment of the post draft look at the NFC South division concludes with a look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who the Denver Broncos host during Week 13 of the 2012 NFL season. Here’s how Florida’s scalawags measure up.

Tampa Bay finished the 2011 season in 4th place in the NFC South division with a 4-12 record. Looking back, it’s a wonder that they were able to win one game much less four. The Bucs were 27th in points, 21st in yards, 16th in passing and the 30th ranked rushing Offense in 2011. Defensively, they were last in points against, 30th in yards against, 21st against the Pass and last in Rushing Defense.

Medical Watch

Defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, the team's 2nd-round selection in the 2011 draft, tore his right Achilles tendon while working out on the field at One Buc Place on May 10th and will likely be out for the season.

Players Lost

QB Rudy Carpenter, DE Nick Reed, DE Tim Crowder, C Jeff Faine, DT Albert Haynesworth and S Tanard Jackson (failed physical) were all released. QB Josh Johnson signed a 2-year deal with the 49ers, OT James Lee went to the Redskins, RB Kregg Lumpkin joined the Seahawks, LB Geno Hayes signed with the Bears and WR Micheal Spurlock bolted for the Chargers.

Players Re-signed

16th year CB Ronde Barber re-upped for one more year at $3M. Word is, the Bucs will ask him to move over to Free Safety. DE Michael Bennett signed his RFA tender at $2.742M. RB LeGarrette Blount and WR Preston Parker signed ERFA deals, OT Demar Dotson got a 2 year contract and G/T Jeremy Zuttah will stick around for another year..

Players Acquired

TE Chase Coffman was signed as a Free Agent, DT Gary Gibson came over from the Rams,
WR Vincent Jackson bolted from the Chargers for a huge $55M/5 year contract, OT Jamon Meredith was grabbed from the Steelers, former Saints OG Carl Nicks scored a $47.5M/5 year deal, DT Amobi Okoye was pried away from the Bears, QB Dan Orlovsky comes over from the Colts, QB Brett Ratliff signed as a Free Agent and CB Eric Wright left the Lions for a $37.5M/5 year payday.

The normally frugal Buccaneers opened up their wallet to bring in some quality veterans. V-Jax, Carl Nicks and Eric Wright should add some wins to a last place team in 2011.

Team Needs

CB, RB, TE, Two LBs, RT, RB and Defensive Tackle Depth

Draft Picks

Round	Pick	Player	Position	Height	Weight	Collede
1	7	Mark Barron	Strong Safety	6-2	218	Alabama
1	31	Doug Martin	Running Back	5-9	215	Boise St.
2	58	Lavonte David	Outside Linebacker	6-1	225	Nebraska
5	140	Najee Goode	Inside Linebacker	6-1	241	West Virginia
6	174	Keith Tandy	Cornerback	5-10	199	West Virginia
7	212	Michael Smith	Running Back	5-9	205	Utah St.
7	233	Drake Dunsmore	Tight End	6-3	235	Northwestern

Mark Barron has the size and athletic ability to contribute right away in the NFL. He has the range and ball skills to make big plays and is an active defender against the run. He wasn’t taken with the 7th overall pick for nothing. Barron is an impact player with Pro Bowls in his future.

Doug Martin is a three-down back, but the Bucs really should have went Defense with this pick. LeGarrette Blount was better than average last year and went over 1,000 yards in 2010. Besides Martin, Tampa Bay has 4 other rookie RB's on the roster.

Lavonte David is a bit undersized for a LB, but he has the ablility to overcome that through his instincts and speed. He always seems to be around the ball whether rushing the passer or covering Tight Ends. A good pick for Tampa.

Najee Goode has the versatility to play in the 3-4 and 4-3 base defense, as well as Inside or Outside Linebacker. He has outstanding instincts and will make it difficult for the coaching staff to keep him off the field.

Keith Tandy will need to carve out his own spot in the secondary, but may only rise to backup status.

Michael Smith another Running Back for the Buccaneers. It looks like they are really making a commitment to the running game with this change-of-pace runner.
Smith is used to being in a 3-Back rotation and will make the most of his opportunities.

Drake Dunsmore has the ability to be a threat from various spots on the field and be a reliable short-yardage option to pick up first downs and create mismatches. Kellen Winslow isn't worth the $8 Million salary he's drawing and if he is used properly, Dunsmore could make KW Jr. replaceable.

CFAs

Louisiana-Monroe WR Luther Ambrose; LSU LB Ryan Baker; Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros; Southern Florida OL Gilbert "Chaz" Hine; Texas FB Cody Johnson; Iowa St CB Leonard Johnson; Tennessee State DT Donte'e Nicholls; Boise State WR Tyler Shoemaker; Mississippi T Bradley Sowell; Arkansas S Tramain Thomas; West Virginia TE Tyler Urban; Toledo OL Mike VanDerMeulen; Southern Florida CB Quenton Washington; Rutgers T Desmond Wynn

Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a very good offseason with an A+ Free Agency and a B+ Draft. That should be good enough to get them to .500 in 2012, IF they stay healthy. Anything more would be a bonus. Things will become much clearer by Thanksgiving.

Go Broncos!

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Denver Broncos News: Horse Tracks - 5/16/12

2012-05-16T12:01:13Z

Elway: Brock Osweiler is Broncos' QB of the future - NFL.com
Shortly after the Denver Broncos signed free-agent quarterback Peyton Manning to a five-year, $96 million contract, the club raised eyebrows by using the 57th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler.

Demaryius Thomas: Peyton Manning 'another coach' - NFL.com
We're starting to see signs of the Peyton Manning Effect in Denver, where the Broncos quarterback (by the way, that still sounds strange to us) is working closely with skill players to install an offense certain to look different in 2012.

Elway: Hillman brings Sproles-like threat to Broncos - NFL.com
The Denver Broncos believe they've acquired a secret weapon in the form of rookie running back Ronnie Hillman.

Armstrong Gets Call to College Hall of Fame " DenverBroncos.com
When Otis Armstrong came to Denver as a first-round pick in 1973, he said he was just looking to follow in fellow running back Floyd Little’s footsteps. On Tuesday, it was announced that Armstrong has done just that, joining his former Broncos teammate in the College Football Hall of Fame in the Class of 2012.

Denver Broncos Videos

Wolfe 1-on-1 from Xfinity Draft Special
After airing locally in Denver on Xfinity channel 105, here's BTV's sit down with draft pick Derek Wolfe a day after the draft.

Blogger Blitz: Effect of CBA on Rookie Signings - ESPN Video - ESPN
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson talks about the impact that the new CBA is having on rookie signings.

Denver Broncos Blogs

Fox, Elway Chat with Ticket Holders
Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway and Head Coach John Fox talked with more than 6,000 season ticket holders on a conference call Tuesday

MaxDenver " Five Intriguing Items from the Season-Ticket Holders’ Call
Among many discussion topics were Brock Osweiler, Rahim Moore, Nate Irving and Derek Wolfe.

A Night With the Coaches " DenverBroncos.com
A few hours after speaking with season ticket holders on a conference call, Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway and Head Coach John Fox headed to Sports Authority Field at Mile High. There, they hosted A Night With the Coaches alongside Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy, Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio and Special Teams Coordinator Jeff Rodgers.

Division News

Pressure point: Broncos - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Broncos and why.

Pressure point: Chargers - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chargers and why.

Pressure point: Chiefs - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chiefs and why.

Pressure point: Raiders - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Raiders and why.

Chiefs celebrating 50 years in Kansas City | ProFootballTalk
At a time when St. Louis could be inching toward losing its second NFL franchise in less than 30 years, the other Missouri city that hosts a pro football franchise is popping the cork on a relationship that has lasted a half-century.

Chiefs' Flowers 'not too worried about' Manning - NFL.com
Ever since Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, the rest of the AFC West has been mentioned as an afterthought by many onlookers.

Chiefs next on Yeremiah Bell’s free-agent tour | ProFootballTalk
Free agent safety Yeremiah Bell was in Tennessee on Tuesday visiting the Titans, and he’s got a fallback plan in place if Mike Munchak’s team doesn’t make an offer Bell deems suitable.

Rookie Criner creates a buzz at Raiders OTAs | ProFootballTalk
The Oakland Raiders had a depleted draft, and their salary cap situation prevented many big free-agent splashes.

Darrius Heyward-Bey apologizes to Raiders fans - NFL.com
After two disappointing years on the field, Darrius Heyward-Bey turned things around last season. He suffered a setback off the field this offseason when he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Raiders restructure scouting staff
The Raiders officially announced the restructuring of their player personnel department, naming several people to new positions and finalizing other hirings.

Fullback Owen Schmitt signs with Oakland Raiders - NFL.com
The Oakland Raiders were set to sign free-agent fullback Owen Schmitt to a one-year contract, a source with knowledge of the situation said Tuesday.

Raiders OTA observations - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Observation from the Raiders’ OTA day on Tuesday:

Darren McFadden full-go at Oakland Raiders' OTAs - NFL.com
On the first day of the Oakland Raiders' OTAs, running back Darren McFadden practiced in full view of the media for the first time since suffering a foot injury last October

Matt Leinart thinks he’s ahead of the curve in Oakland | ProFootballTalk
New Raiders quarterback Matt Leinart believes he knows the team’s offense better than his teammates, thanks to his relationship with offensive coordinator Greg Knapp.

Future Foes

Mike Wallace still has no plans to sign tender | ProFootballTalk
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported before the draft that Steelers receiver Mike Wallace wouldn’t sign his one-year restricted free agent tender "until he has to."

Wes Welker signs franchise tender with New England Patriots - NFL.com
Wes Welker signed his franchise tender with the New England Patriots

Maurice Jones-Drew absent at Jacksonville Jaguars OTAs - NFL.com
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey confirmed that the absence of Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew from the team's OTAs is contract-related.

Falcons' Mike Smith changing playoff approach - NFL.com
Under head coach Mike Smith, the Atlanta Falcons have finished above .500 for four consecutive seasons, an unprecedented run of regular season success for an organization that had never posted back-to-back winning records in its history.

Falcons sign third-round pick Lamar Holmes | ProFootballTalk
The Falcons are down to one unsigned draft pick.

Buccaneers RB LeGarrette Blount is delusional - NFL.com
LeGarrette Blount went into the draft hoping that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't select Trent Richardson.

Connor Barth sits out Bucs' OTAs; no contract yet - NFL.com
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers began their OTAs under first-year head coach Greg Schiano this morning and have been joined by franchised kicker Connor Barth, who had skipped the team's first voluntary minicamp in early April.

Carolina Panthers made special teams offseason priority - NFL.com
Following a 2011 season during which the Carolina Panthers allowed three punt returns for touchdowns and averaged just 5.5 yards per punt return, resulting in a 32nd rating for the special teams unit according to Football Outsiders' metrics,

NFL News

NFL, NFLPA, NCAA donating to youth helmet initiative - ESPN
The NFL, its players' union and the NCAA are donating money to provide new helmets to youth football players in low-income communities.

ProFootballWeekly.com - NFL announces helmet replacement partnership
The NFL, NFLPA and other organizations announced a partnership to replace youth football helmets in underserved communities.

Youth football safety and helmet replacement partnership - NFL.com
As part of a joint commitment to player safety, a group of sports entities and equipment manufacturers has entered into an unprecedented partnership to create a youth football safety and helmet replacement program for youth in underserved communities.

Looking at NFL Player Development from a different angle | TheFootballEducator.com
The tragic death of Junior Seau has ignited conversations, calls, and debates across the country about the need for a more comprehensive program to help develop young players during their all too brief professional football careers and provide for post career counseling when the lights finally do go out.

NFL post-career obligations | National Football Post
The transition into retirement is an extremely difficult one for most players.

Is the new CBA good for young players? | National Football Post
New deal will display some flaws.

My offseason film study guide for rookie DBs | National Football Post
Some keys to look for when you turn on the tape.

The Draft

Tavon Wilson signs with New England Patriots - NFL.com
As second-round draft picks go, the New England Patriots' selection of safety Tavon Wilson was pretty controversial.

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Broncos Teleconference With Elway and Fox

2012-05-15T22:15:02Z

About noon Mountain Time today, about 6,000 Denver Broncos season ticket holders were able to visit and ask questions with Broncos Executive V.P. of football operations John Elway and head coach John Fox. A sort of "State of the Team address" if you will. I personally was unable to listen in live, but I do have some interesting points due to the marvels of the Twitterverse. Those of you who do not Tweet will likely find this post as informative as I did while gathering the information.
I have some Tweets from Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post, but most are straight from the official team Twitter. Enjoy.

Apparently, the conference call began with Elway addressing the callers.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Elway on the draft: "I thought we did well...We hit some areas of need with some very good football players."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

Next, John Fox made a few statements.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox said defenses aren't going to catch Hillman. "As far as WR sets, a lot of that is situational. We feel good about our WR corps."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

One of the callers must have asked about the Defense.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox: "The best pass defense in the world is a pass rush...it's something we're building on." Said edge rush is solid, getting better at DT.
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

Next, John Elway talked about 3rd round draft pick Running Back Ronnie Hillman.

"To be able to have a weapon like Ronnie Hillman, he's a lot like a Sproles. You can get great matchups,,,,Great change-of-pace back."

Here we find out that Devon Still and Jerel Worthy were not going to be drafted by the Broncos.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Elway said the team had DT Derek Wolfe targeted the whole time and benefitted from moving back in the draft. Heard BAL had him high as well.
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

Another caller asked about Wide Receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox on Decker and Thomas being named as breakout players for 2012: "I would not hesitate to put either one of them on that list."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

On 2nd round draft pick Quarterback Brock Osweiler.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Elway on Osweiler: "It's always tough to pick a QB you know isn't going to play for a while, but we have high hopes for him in the future."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

On the Rookie Mini Camp.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox on rookies after minicamp: "I was very impressed...their workout, focus and toughness was very impressive...they should make us better."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

We even got word about Linebacker Nate Irving.

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox on LB Nate Irving: "He's a growing player. He's definitely got the athleticism and ability...we're looking for big things this year."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

And a few words about the Special Teams Unit.

Fox on Special Teams: "Probably the biggest loss was losing Eddie Royal. But we got a young man in Eric Page from Toledo who can step in."

@Denver_Broncos
Denver Broncos Fox on new DL Coach Jay Rodgers: "He's got really good knowledge for a young, energetic coach...The transition will be really smooth."
May 15 via Twitter for iPad Favorite Retweet Reply

Some welcome news on the injury front. Per Lindsay Jones

Elway said Chris Kuper is recovering "very well" from ankle injury. (He) Could be ready as soon as June.

@PostBroncos
Lindsay Jones Fox on Rahim Moore: "He’s a guy that we have not lost faith in." Said Rahim has had a good offseason, gained some muscle.
May 15 via TweetDeck Favorite Retweet Reply

I also caught this Tweet from Julius Thomas, so naturally I had to add it.

So excited to get off these crutches this week.

That's all I could glean from the phone conference. Perkaps they will have it up on a podcast on the team site, but I haven't seen anything as yet. For those of you who called in, please share anything pertinent.

Go Broncos!

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2012 Broncos Country Caravan Tour Dates Announced

2012-05-15T17:00:44Z

Courtesy of the Denver Broncos team site

Per the team site, the Denver Broncos have announced the tour dates for the 2012 Broncos Country Caravan Tour. Some of you may remember me covering the event in Colorado Springs in 2010. I brought back pictures of the Holy Grail (1998-99 Lombardi trophies), cheerleaders and former players signed some goodies. Circumstances prevented my attendance last year, but I hope to make it to one of the events this time around.

The 2012 Tour features 9 major stops throughout Colorado. It will kickoff Monday, May 21st in Grand Junction Trinidad, CO followed by visits to Pueblo and Canon City before taking a northward journey. The Caravan will then visit Estes Park (tentatively), Geeley and Cheyenne, Wyomong before heading west. The western leg of the tour is tentative, but the schedulesd cities are Grand Junction and Rifle, Colorado as well as a date in Summit County.
The Tour will run through mid-July and include Appearances by and autographs from Broncos celebrities, Raffle prizes, City flag signing, Activities for kids, a Cheerleader Performance and a chance to test your skills in the Rocky Mountain Health Plans Training Camp.

The Broncos Country Caravan is an opportunity for fans in communities outside of the Denver Metro area to engage and connect with the Broncos. It is a good outing for the family.

SOUTH TOUR DATES

Monday, May 21: Trinidad
Trinidad Catholic Football Field
5 - 7 p.m.
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

Tuesday, May 22: Pueblo
Dutch Clark Stadium
5 - 7 p.m.
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

Wednesday, May 23: Canon City
Centennial "Duck" Park, 221 Griffin Ave.
5 - 7 p.m.
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

NORTH TOUR DATES

Wednesday, June 13: Estes Park (tentative)
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! Sign the official city flag and more!

Thursday, June 14: Greeley
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

Friday, June 15: Cheyenne
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

WEST TOUR DATES

Thursday, July 12: Grand Junction (tentative)
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

Friday, July 13: Rifle (tentative)
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

Saturday, July 14: Summit County (tentative)
Location and time: TBD
City Celebration: Meet Broncos Alumni, Cheerleaders and Miles the Mascot! See the Super Bowl trophies, sign the official city flag and more!

For those of you who happen to live in the promised land (Colorado), don’t miss out on this event.

Go Broncos!

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Demaryius Thomas Preparing for 'Best Year Yet'

2012-05-15T15:01:35Z

Demaryius Thomas Preparing for 'Best Year Yet'

"I’m excited, man," Thomas said, smiling from ear to ear. "I’m just excited to get healed and work with the team and not sit here and look around – to actually be on the field doing stuff. This is my first year in the NFL being healthy. I’m feeling good, I’m in the right shape, good size. It’s just exciting and I’m looking forward to it."

Denver Broncos News: Horse Tracks - 5/15/12

2012-05-15T12:01:18Z

Rodgers Takes Over as Defensive Line Coach " DenverBroncos.com
With Wayne Nunnely retiring, Jay Rodgers — who spent the past three seasons as a defensive assistant with the club, including working primarily with Nunnely and the defensive line in 2011 — now takes over as the club’s defensive line coach.

Today’s Unknowns Can Be Tomorrow’s Stars " DenverBroncos.com
One of the things that fascinates me in sport, as well as in life, is the vast number of fans and followers who know everything.

Former Colony HS Star Takes His ‘Positive Living’ To The Broncos " CBS Los Angeles
Denver Broncos rookie Omar Bolden considers himself a budding cornerback and CEO.

Denver Broncos Blogs

Broncos rookie Omar Bolden prepared to gain from pain - The Denver Post
Out of one of the worst experiences a college football player can experience, Omar Bolden emerged with a new, and entirely positive, perspective.

Broncos Mailbag: After Denver drafted for need, John Fox has all his pieces - The Denver Post
In this giant-sized offseason installment, Mike tackles 10 Qs, including one wondering what will come of Denvers top pick, Derek Wolfe.

Broncos sign Steven Johnson, undrafted LB from Kansas, with $12,000 bonus - The Denver Post
If money is any indication, the most coveted of the Broncos' undrafted rookies is linebacker Steven Johnson.

Division News

Raiders to try out Owen Schmitt - AFC West Blog - ESPN
The agent for free-agent fullback Owen Schmitt confirmed that his client will work out for the Oakland Raiders this week in their organized team activities.

Raiders cut college hoopster - AFC West Blog - ESPN
So much for the Andre Hardy experiment in Oakland, as the Raiders waived the rookie on Monday.

Oakland Raiders' Matt Leinart 'here to help' Carson Palmer - NFL.com
Although the Oakland Raiders' Matt Leinart still wants to be a starting quarterback, he figured backing up his friend Carson Palmer was the next best option.

Carson Palmer: 'I'm definitely in a better place' - NFL.com
Carson Palmer left a team in Cincinnati that looked to be just starting the rebuilding process. They made the playoffs.

Ranking AFC West receivers - AFC West Blog - ESPN
Continuing our 2012 AFC position-by-position rankings, here are the receivers. It’s a young, fairly unproven group that lost top players Vincent Jackson and Brandon Lloyd in the past year:

The Chargers have signed all their draft picks | ProFootballTalk
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Chargers have reached agreement on a four-year contract with strong safety Brandon Taylor. That makes them the fifth team in the league to sign all of their draft picks.

Buccaneers sign two former Mountaineers | ProFootballTalk
The Buccaneers took two West Virginia University products in last month’s draft and they announced Monday that both of them are no under contract

Andre Smith says he’ll be "in tip-top shape" | ProFootballTalk
When most people picture Bengals offensive lineman Andre Smith working out, the picture they see is one they wish they could erase from their memory

Tyler Hansen in contention for NFL QB job with Cincinnati Bengals - The Denver Post
For Tyler Hansen, it was a transforming experience, but one he hopes won't be a one-time-only experience.

James Casey to pull double duty for Houston Texans - NFL.com
With the Houston Texans losing fullback Lawrence Vickers and tight end Joel Dreessen to free agency, head coach Gary Kubiak will be turning to versatile tight end/fullback James Casey to fill multiple roles on offense, reports John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Texans sign five draft picks | ProFootballTalk
The Texans rookies started practicing with the team’s veterans on Monday and five of them celebrated by signing contracts with the team.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Browns sign LB Acho, two others
The Browns have signed LB Emmanuel Acho, a sixth-round pick from Texas, the club announced Monday.

Jags' Maurice Jones-Drew, Scobee not expected at OTAs - NFL.com
Jacksonville Jaguars Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew and franchised kicker Josh Scobee are not expected to be present for the start of the team's organized team activities on Tuesday, Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union reports

Unsigned franchise player Barth to report to Bucs | ProFootballTalk
The Buccaneers slapped the franchise tag on kicker Connor Barth in March, guaranteeing him $2.645 million for the 2012 season.

NFL News

NFL Players' union 'bounty' grievance to be heard Wednesday - NFL.com
The NFL players' union will have its grievance against the league in the Saints bounties case heard Wednesday by arbitrator Shyam Das.

My story: How Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome and his scouts find passionate players and fill the team with them - NFL.com
I arrived in Owings Mills, Md., with a simple goal for my impending story.

The Draft

Finding QB's through the NFL Draft - Justification for Kirk Cousins | TheFootballEducator.com
The Redskins have been given a lot of grief for their selection of quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft

Go Broncos!

Denver Broncos Coach Wayne Nunnely Retiring

2012-05-14T22:35:09Z

Denver Broncos Defensive Line Coach Wayne Nunnely is retiring today. I have mixed emotions over that fact. The last couple of years at Training Camp it was common to hear the rich baritone announce the theme for the Denver Defense, "Nobody runs on the Broncos!" This is a coach that players and even the fans loved. Nunnely has a good nature to him and a contagious laugh to go along with it. He was always cordial to the fans at Training Camp and would come over to chat and sign autographs.

Wayne started coaching 36 years ago in 1975. He coached at Cal Poly Pomona, CSUF, University of the Pacific, USC, UCLA as well as a tenure at Head Coach foe his alma mater UNLV from 1986-89. Nunnely coached Running Backs at first because he was familiar with the position. He played Fullback with the Running Rebels. After another coach quit during one of his college gigs, he was asked to coach the D-Line. Wayne coached Running Backs again for about 8 seasons before switching back across the line for good.

After 18 seasons as a college coach, Wayne graduated to the NFL, joining the the New Orleans Saints in 1995. He coached them for two seasons. He then spent 12 years (1997-2008) coaching the Defensive Line for the San Diego Chargers and has been with the Broncos for the past three seasons. Wayne has coached a few Pro Bowlers in his career. Marcellus Wiley, Jamal Williams and Elvis Dumervil to name a few.

The Broncos named Jay Rodgers as Nunnely's successor. Jay was hired by Denver on Jan. 21, 2009 as a coaching assistant. Last season he was promoted to defensive quality control coach. Consequently, he has worked closely with Nummely for the past three years. Prior to that, he worked for nine seasons at the collegiate level, instructing Iowa State’s Wide Receivers from 2007-08 after coaching Quarterbacks at Stephen F. Austin University (2005-06) and Missouri State (2004). Jay's brother Jeff is the Special Teams Coordinator for the Broncos.

"The defensive line will be in good hands with Jay Rodgers, whom I’ve worked with very closely for the last three years," Nunnely said. "He is very deserving of this opportunity, which he has earned through his hard work and knowledge. Jay has many great qualities as a person and coach that will make him successful in his new role.

The D-Line may be in good hands with Mr. Rodgers, but I'm going to miss that baritone battlecry, "Nobody runs on the Denver Broncos!"

Happy retirement Wayne Nunnely. Thank you for your service.

Go Broncos!

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