Minor League Ball

An Interview with Oakland GM Billy Beane

2009-11-20T21:01:51Z

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

In this Feb. 16, 2009 file photo, Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff, left, and general manager Billy Beane, center, talk with pitcher Brad Ziegler, right, during spring training baseball in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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I spoke with Oakland GM Billy Beane this morning. Here is a transcript of the interview.

JOHN SICKELS:
Billy, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.
I want to start with a general question, then get to more specifics about some of the youngest players and prospects in your organization. First of all, you've spoken frequently of the necessity for a smaller-revenue team to build from within, and the Athletics clearly had to do that this year. Is it difficult to decide when you're in rebuilding mode, and when you're in win-now mode? Obviously you always want to win, but how you assess your current position is going to impact how you handle trades and free agency. If your team is really good or really bad, you know it, but how do you assess this if you're somewhere in the middle? For example, in 2009 you finished 75-87, but your Pythagorean won-loss record was 81-81, so maybe this team is better than it looks. How does this impact your decision making for 2010 and the future?

BILLY BEANE:
Good question. I think one of the General Manager's most important jobs is to figure that out, to always know where you are in the organization development process. Sometimes the public perception, in the media and with the fans, of where the team is, can be different than what the private internal perception is. The way I look at it, you are either building something special or you have something special. Our market is challenging as you know, and we are in rebuilding mode right now, but I think there are a lot of good things to look forward to.
As I see it, our organization has two "waves" of players. We have a strong group of young pitchers up in the majors right now....Anderson, Cahill, Bailey, Gonzalez and others. . that's the foundation for a great staff, and we have a group of young hitters coming up behind them who will be ready soon. It's a process we went through in the 1990s so we know how it works.

JOHN SICKELS:
So you do see yourself as in the rebuilding phase right now.

BILLY BEANE:
    Yes, but these things can change quickly. What you want is for a young group of players to come up at roughly the same time, but it's a case by case thing for each player, and you have to give them time to adjust to the major league level. Expectations can get very high when you're bringing up young talent, sometimes too high, but it is our job to factor that in. Even if our won-loss record doesn't change next year, we will still be light years ahead of where we are now in the development process itself, just by the young guys getting another year of experience.
     Even a level-headed guy like Brett Anderson will need adjustment time. He's a very good pitcher now, but how will he look in three or four years? He should be outstanding.
     When a player first reaches the majors, he's in survival mode, just getting use to the pace of the game, the big league setting, the travel, playing against the best guys he's ever faced before. Eventually they move beyond that survival mode, they get comfortable, and then you see how good they really are. The time it takes is different for every player, some of them the adjustment happens fast, sometimes it takes longer, sometimes there are setbacks. Right now, we have a lot of players who are making that transition from survival mode to realizing they belong. But once it clicks, the upward improvement can be incredibly rapid, and it is a beautiful thing to watch happen, for the specific player and when it happens to a team as a whole.
     The draft is incredibly important for us, of course. When you're in a rebuilding mode, you can't miss on your early round draft picks, especially if you're in the top half of the first round. If you have a top five pick especially, you can't miss on those at all. The research is very clear on the value of a top five pick compared to the bottom half of the first round. We picked 12^th last year and 13^th this year, and are happy with what we have to show for it. (ed.-Jemile Weeks and Grant Green). When we built up the team in the 1990s, early round picks were critical for us.

JOHN SICKELS:
That's interesting that you mention the importance of the early choices, but sometimes guys can be a big surprise. Andrew Bailey, rookie of the year, was a sixth round pick.. I've been an optimist about him but I didn't expect something like this. At what point did you realize you had something special on your hands?

BILLY BEANE:
Well we always knew he had a lot of potential. We always felt he could make it as a starter, but he kind of hit the wall in that role at Midland (in 2008).

JOHN SICKELS:
Yeah, he had some problems down there. But then he moved to relief in the second half and was better, and I remember seeing him in the Arizona Fall League last year and thinking he looked really good. I thought he could be a good middle reliever, but he was much more than that this year.

BILLY BEANE:
He always had the strong strikeout rate, which I know is something you look at and we certainly look at as the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher. He looked good in spring training, throwing 92-94, and we felt he fit well into the pen. But then he got comfortable really quickly, and his confidence took off. He got really fired up, his stuff went up to 94-96 even 97 with the cutter. We didn't see that coming. We thought he'd be fine in the pen, but he just got better and better. It built on itself and you saw the final results.

JOHN SICKELS:
He wasn't a high-round draft pick.

BILLY BEANE:
No, and you can't count on finding a rookie of the year with a sixth round pick. That's why the early rounds are so important. But it also shows you can find players who have potential, and in Bailey's case it was the strikeouts that indicated it to us.

JOHN SICKELS:
You mentioned the young wave of pitching up this year, and as good as Bailey was, rookies held down the starting rotation. Your top six starters averaged 22.6 years of age, with Dallas Braden the "veteran" at age 25. Anderson and Cahill had to be very pleasing given how little Double-A experience they had. But what about Gio Gonzalez? You mentioned the important of strikeouts. He's got the strikeouts but he still can't get anyone out.

BILLY BEANE:
Gio is a really interesting guy. Even when he's getting hit hard, he still strikes guys out. Ultimately we think it will play out in his favor. Gio is a very high-strung guy, high-energy, and sometimes that works against him. It will take him a little longer to get comfortable, but we understand that. Brett Anderson is the opposite, he's very calm and under control emotionally, but Gio is still learning to harness his emotions. We think he made a lot of progress doing that.
If you look at his game-by-game lines, you can see signs that he's pulling things together. Back in July, he had a really bad game against the Twins (ed.--10 hits and 11 runs allowed in 2.2 innings on July 20^th), but he came back from that to pitch well against the Yankees (July 25^th, one run in 6.2 innings) and Red Sox (July 30^th, eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings) on the road. That's not easy in those environments, so he showed he could bounce back. We were also really happy with his last start, where he fanned 10 and didn't walk anyone (October 2^nd against the Angels) in six innings. That shows the kind of potential he has. He just needs more time to put it together consistently, learn to channel his emotions when he gets amped up.

JOHN SICKELS:
You mentioned the wave of young hitters who will be ready soon. Where does Chris Carter fit into that? Can he really play the outfield?

BILLY BEANE:
Chris is far more athletic than people think. He needs work out there, but he has a better chance to stick in the outfield than the other candidates like Barton. We haven't given up on Barton at all by the way, we still believe in his potential. But Chris's bat looks special. It would really help us fit him into the lineup if he can play the outfield.

JOHN SICKELS
I saw him late in the year for Midland, and I agree, he is more athletic than people say. He's not just a slugger either, he looks like he's pretty polished with the bat.

BILLY BEANE:
Yes. Our people in Midland thought he was the best all-around hitter in the Texas League, a pure hitter now, not just a power guy. He's made adjustments as he's moved up and has improved his approach at a rapid rate. And he's still very young, too. We had some concerns about how he would adapt in Triple-A, but he handled the challenge well, hitting four homers for Sacramento. He will need some Triple-A time to make the final adjustments with the bat, and to settle on a position.

JOHN SICKELS:
So you will keep him in the outfield?

BILLY BEANE:
Well, it would help us if he could stick there. We'll see how things look in the spring. We still have Barton and Doolittle to find places for, too.

JOHN SICKELS;
You said you haven't given up on Barton. Do you still like Doolittle?

BILLY BEANE:
Yeah, we still like both of them a lot. It's too bad about Doolittle's knee, that was badly timed for him and for us, but we still think he's going to be a good hitter.

JOHN SICKELS
The other big bat in Triple-A is Brett Wallace. Can he stick at third base?

BILLY BEANE:
Well we don't know for sure yet, but we won't take him off third base until he proves he can't handle it. His bat has come very quickly, he was just a year out of college and hit well in Triple-A. The bat looks special to us. Sometimes with guys like that, the glove gets panned by scouts just because the bat has come so quickly and they are looking for something to criticize. Also, I think Brett's defense gets panned unfairly because of the way his body looks.

JOHN SICKELS:
It looks to me like he has a strong arm and decent hands, but his range is limited.

BILLY BEANE:
Maybe, but third base is a big hole in our system, and if he can make it there it would fit very nicely into the plan. The other factor is that Brett believes he can play third base, he's committed to it, and it is foolish not to let him try. So we're keeping him there until he proves otherwise.

JOHN SICKELS:
We are almost out of time, but there is one more guy I want to ask you about. Grant Desme had a great year in the minors, and was one of the big boppers in the Arizona Fall League. He's always had good tools but was slowed down by injuries. I like what he did in A-ball, but his strikeout rate is very high. Does that worry you?

BILLY BEANE:
Well, we drafted him high (second round, 2007) and we've always liked his potential. He got hurt, but he made up for lost time this year. You mentioned the strikeouts, and yes that is something we're aware of. The other concern is age; people point out he was kind of old for A-ball. But the bottom line is that he performed this year, he looked great this fall, and we can't worry about failure until it actually happens. The guy he reminds me of is Jayson Werth, a big guy who could run when he was young. Desme has a similar package, and that sort of power is hard to find in a right-handed hitter.

JOHN SICKELS:
Does he start at Midland or at Sacramento?

BILLY BEANE:
We'll decide that in spring training, but probably Midland. We'll have to see if the strikeouts become a problem, but we really like what we saw from him this year.

JOHN SICKELS
Billy, I know you're a very busy man, but thanks for taking the time to chat today!

BILLY BEANE:
Thanks, John!

Update

2009-11-20T20:27:49Z

I interviewed Oakland GM Billy Beane this morning and will have a transcript posted for you soon.

Working on the Los Angeles Angels

2009-11-19T22:38:44Z

Now working on the Los Angeles Angels. Preliminary player list after the jump. Who am I missing?

Los Angeles Angels 39 players

Alexia Amarista 2B

Jon Bachanov RHP

Dillon Baird 1B

Trevor Bell RHP

Josh Blanco LHP

Buddy Boshiers LHP

Peter Bourjos OF

Ryan Chaffee RHP

Tyler Chatwood RHP

Hank Conger C

Pat Corbin LHP

Terry Evans OF

Rolando Gomez SS

Randal Grichuk OF

Casey Haerther 3B

Tyler Kehrer LHP

Michael Kohn RHP

Fabio Martinez-Mesa RHP

Tommy Mendoza RHP

Robert Mosebach RHP

Ryan Mount 2B

Chris Pettit OF

Carlos Ramirez C

Trevor Reckling LHP

Garrett Richards RHP

Fernando Rodriguez RHP

Andrew Romine SS

Freddy Sandoval 2B

Chris Scholl RHP

Jean Segura 2B

Tyler Skaggs LHP

Will Smith LHP

Andrew Taylor LHP

Mason Tobin RHP

Mike Trout OF

Mark Trumbo 1B

Jordan Walden RHP

Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2010

2009-11-19T04:29:54Z

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

The Franchise (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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Top 20 Washington Nationals Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.

1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade A: He's done enough in Arizona to justify the Grade A rating in my opinion. We have to remember that he's a human being, but he is immensely talented.

2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+: Somewhere on the Mickey Tettleton/Mike Napoli spectrum: high walks, lots of power, defense should be good enough, might not hit for average.

3) Drew Storen, RHP, Grade B+: Has put aside concerns about being an overdraft. Could help in pen very soon, future closer if all works out.

4) Danny Espinosa, SS, Grade B: Has some pop, steals bases, draws walks, very good glove. Scouts in Arizona love him.

5) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade B: I don't think he's going to be a star, but with proper development he can be a solid regular.

6) Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Grade B-: Another guy who should be solid, though I'd like a larger pro sample size before going higher with the grade.

7) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B-: borderline C+. Power potential, throwing arm, and youth are big positives, will take a walk, but strikes out a lot and batting average is quite low.

8) Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade C+: What you see is what you get: power, walks, speed, low batting average. Can they look past that and appreciate his secondary skills?

9) Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+: I think he made some legitimate improvements, but not as much as the raw numbers indicate. BABIP probably unsustainable, and he needs to tighten his defense.

10) Bradley Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: One of several strike-throwing types with limited upside but good pitchability.

11) Destin Hood, OF, Grade C+: High power upside, with a high chance of failure. Could rank ninth or tenth.

12) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Kansas State ace may move faster in relief.

13) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Need data from higher levels, but could be a Juan Pierre type. I don't mean that as an insult.

14) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: Pitchability guy acquired from the Marlins. No longer a top prospect, but still a decent one.

15) Juan Jaime, RHP, Grade C: High-ceiling arm with strong fastball needs to improve secondary pitches. Could rise rapidly if he does so. Perhaps I should go with C+.

16) J.P. Ramirez, OF, Grade C: Production was somewhat disappointing in the New York-Penn League, but not terrible for context. Full-season data in '10 will be illuminating.

17) J.R. Higley, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools hound, didn't light up the NY-P but still has potential.

18) Paul Demny, RHP, Grade C: Went 3-11 with 5.14 ERA in the Sally League, but with 110 strikeouts in 105 innings. Could go a long way if he improves command.

19) Marco Estrada, RHP, Grade C: I have no actual evidence to support this, but I keep thinking he could have a surprisingly good season in 2010. Nothing left to prove in Triple-A.

20) Jeff Mandel, RHP, Grade C: Looked very good in Arizona Fall League relief action; he might sneak in some major league innings.

OTHERS: All Grade C: Evan Bronson, LHP; Clint Everts, RHP; Marcos Frias, RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Luis Garcia, RHP; Trevor Holder, RHP; Hendry Jimenez, 2B; Taylor Jordan, RHP; Nathan Karns, RHP; Pat Lehman, RHP; Steve Lombardozzi, 2B; Jack McGeary, LHP; Tom Milone, LHP; Adrian Nieto, C; Brad Peacock, RHP; Atahualpa Severino, LHP; Josh Smoker, LHP; Greg Veloz, 2B; Dean Weaver, RHP; Josh Wilkie, RHP. Most of these guys could fit into the 16-20 spots, depending on what you want to emphasize.

The Nationals system has an amazing talent in Strasburg, and I'm also very high on Norris, Storen, and Espinosa. After that, it fades quickly. Hitters like Marrero, Burgess, Maxwell, Desmond, Hood, and Perez all have significant unanswered questions. All could be very good players, all could fail. There are several low-ceiling arms who could contribute in the majors soon (Meyers, Thompson, Estrada, Mandel, Wilkie, Garate), and there is also a group of live arms who have problems that need addressing.

The system has material to work with, particularly on the pitching side beyond Strasburg and Storen. They need to add bats with fewer questions, and it will be interesting to see what direction GM Mike Rizzo and his new staff take in the 2010 draft.

Working on the Nationals

2009-11-18T05:10:17Z

Still working on the Washington Nationals....preliminary player list and some early grades after the jump.

Michael Burgess    OF           B-
Paul Demny         RHP          C
Ian Desmond        SS           C+
Danny Espinosa     SS
Marco Estrada      RHP
Clint Everts       RHP
Robinson Fabian    RHP
Marcos Frias       RHP
Victor Garate      LHP
Luis Garcia        RHP
J.R. Higley        OF
Trevor Holder      RHP
Destin Hood        OF
Juan Jaime         RHP
Hendry Jimenez     2B
Taylor Jordan      RHP
Nathan Karns       RHP
Jeff Kobernus      2B
Pat Lehman         RHP
Steve Lombardozzi 2B
Chris Marrero      1B
Justin Maxwell     OF
Jack McGeary       LHP
Bradley Meyers     RHP
Tom Milone         LHP
A.J. Morris        RHP
Adrian Nieto       C           C
Derek Norris       C           B+
Eury Perez         OF          C+
J.P. Ramirez       OF
Danny Rosenbaum    LHP
Atahualpa Severino LHP         C
Josh Smoker        LHP         C
Drew Storen        RHP         B+
Stephen Strasburg RHP         A
Aaron Thompson     LHP         C+
Greg Veloz         2B          C
Dean Weaver        RHP         C
Josh Wilkie        RHP         C

Let me know if you think i'm missing anyone. I will try to have the complete list and rankings up Thursday.

Open Q/A Thread

2009-11-14T21:52:40Z

The previous thread was getting unwieldy, so here's a new one. Go ahead and ask questions here about players in the Arizona Fall League, and I will answer them starting tomorrow. Be patient as I'm also working on the book right now.

Arizona Fall League Q/A Thread

2009-11-11T19:11:34Z

Arizona Fall League

I have returned from the Arizona Fall League and the First Pitch Arizona Conference. As usual, I had a great time, learned a lot I didn't know, and even got to meet a few Minor League Ball readers.

I drove 2,962 miles round trip, and I'm rather tired, though not as tired as Jeri, who was on child care duty non-stop for a week while I was gone. I owe her a week's worth of sleeping-in time, which around here means sleeping until 8 am, given the propensity of the youngest child to wake up about 5. Nevertheless, I'm back in the saddle, and will resume work on the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book this afternoon.

I will write up a report for Rotowire about the Arizona Fall League next week, which will incorporate data from the trip. But here are some bullet points about players of interest.

**I didn't get to see Stephen Strasburg. He was supposed to pitch in the Arizona Fall League All Star Game, but was scratched due to a stiff neck. I did talk with people who had seen him pitch, and they were universally full of praise for him. His fastball legitimately hits 100 MPH, his breaking ball is described as a "wipeout pitch," and scouts love his mound presence. His command needs some tweaking, but most observers felt this was just a matter of needing to shake rust off after the summer layoff. Some believe he could make the major league rotation in spring training, while others believe he could use half a season of minor league baseball just to get used to the pro game. Everyone thinks he'll be an excellent major league pitcher, provided he stays healthy. Right now I'm leaning towards a pure Grade A rating for the 2010 book, but I'll decide that for sure in the coming days.

**On the negative side, Royals prospect Mike Moustakas doesn't look like the same player I saw in the Midwest League last year. His lower half is thicker, as if the size proportion between his hips and his shoulders has been altered in a negative way. He's slower and less mobile in general compared to last year. He still has a solid-looking swing, but his plate discipline is weak and problems with lefties are evident. I had given him a Grade B+ a couple of weeks ago, but am strongly reconsidering that now and could lower it down to B or maybe even B-.. He's still very young, but I'm worried about him.

**Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown has a superb set of tools and tremendous athleticism. Scouts are quibbling about a loopy, longish swing, but people who saw him earlier this year suspect he's just tired right now and his swing is wilting as a result. The tools are certainly outstanding and I was very taken with his projectability.

**Ask questions in this thread and I'll answer them.

JERI's Update--John Will Be Home Today!

2009-11-10T15:46:56Z

Good Morning. As you might have figured out from the headline, John will arrive home this afternoon. He will no doubt be filling you in on his trip details in the coming days.

I know he is excited to be getting back to work on the book (The Baseball Prospect Book 2010), which oh, by the way, you should consider ordering if you have not done so. www.johnsickels.net is the site. There is a link somewhere on this page, on the right side column, that looks like a mock-up of the cover. It's so easy!

JERI's Late Night Update

2009-11-09T05:17:32Z

It's Sunday night, and John is somewhere in New Mexico, on his way home. He seems really excited about the players he saw, so that's good.

Sorry I didn't post this weekend...It's been a little hectic.

I'll TRY to be interesting tomorrow...Here's something I'm curious about your thoughts concerning:

Are there too many MLB teams? Not enough? What area do you think needs a team, or has a successful enough minor league team in terms of attendance and money that it could likely support a major league team?

PLEASE NOTE: I AM NOT ASKING IF ANY PARTICULAR CITY SHOULD LOSE THEIR TEAM. THAT IS A QUESTION THAT CAN ONLY LEAD TO PROBLEMS AND STRIFE, AND WE WANT HAPPY FUN BLOG TIME.

The reason I'm asking is this: I've been trying to think of an area that has the population and financial demographic that could support a team that isn't already within drivng distance of one. I'm positive that there are areas where a team could succeed, but I'm not able to think of too many.

The only thought I could come up with is Las Vegas. However, I can't really see people giving up a day at the casino, (or other less mentionable adult attraction!) in order to see a game for a city they are just visiting, or to follow their home team to Vegas. On the other hand, there are lots of people, and lots of money there, so maybe. I know there is a minor league presence, so I don't know if a major league team would move in too, or if it would take over, or what. Also, they would have to come up with a NOT LAME mascot name so we don't get something stupid like the Vegas Gamblers, or the Nevada Elvises...or would that be Elivisi? At any rate, you get the picture.

And, who would be a good stadium sponsor? I'm really disgusted by the corporation named Target Stadium, and Cellular One whatever... I think stadiums should be named after something that honors the city they are in, like a famous citizen or a famous landmark. I want to see a stadium for Sin City named after something awesome...If it must be named for a corporate sponsor, what about Trojan Stadium? (SLOGAN: See the big bats swing in the Trojan!)

Or, get a casino to sponsor the stadium. Ceasar's would be my choice. The stadium could replicate the shape and cool decorations wherever possible. They could show live feed of people playing roulette rather than those warm-fuzzy-get-to-know-the-players pieces they show when the game stalls.

Just a thought!

Where would you like to see a team? Anywhere? Even if you think we have the proper team saturation, you can still play...Just name a city or state, suggest a mascot if you want...we're just having fun. I strongly suspect that the MLB powers that be won't be taking advice from any of us!

I got it! The Sin City Wayne Newtons!

******************************************************************************

PS..the picture is from hamsterdance.com, a website we used to play to amuse Nicholas. They've changed it since then, so it's not the same, but still worth a giggle.

JERI's Idea for Reality TV

2009-11-06T20:08:09Z

I must make a confession. I have gotten totally hooked on these cooking contest shows on the food network: Iron Chef America, The Next Iron Chef and Chopped. There is also a show on Bravo, Top Chef, that I watch, but not as consistantly. The Next Iron Chef and Chopped, especially, really are just horrilble, in that the contestants are a little desperate, and totally willing to stab their fellow contestants in the back, or just straight in the heart for a small advantage.

Up until these shows came into my field of vision, I prided myself, somewhat snobbishly, on the fact that I never have watched reality television. Eight thousand Survivor seasons, American Idol, the dancing shows, the Bachelor, Girl Bachelor, Loser Bachelor, The Apprentice, all these shows were just way beneath my interest level. They bring out the worst in people, and the contestants who show themselves to be the biggest asses, the worst people, seem to be the most celebrated.

Then I got hooked on Iron Chef, which is ok--it makes me feel like I, too, could make five dishes out of King Crab toenails. And, the chefs seem to have some respect for one another. After that, I discovered Chopped, which is way harder than Iron Chef, and waayyyy more interesting. The contestants actively smirk when their competition messes up, and they do these interviews where the chefs all bag on each other in between rounds. I lap this stuff up, to the point of being mildly ashamed.

The point, and I do have one, is this: Would a reality competition about baseball work? Would anyone watch it? The setup I'm thinking about would be pretty dismal, and would likely show the contestants to be on the pathetic side....which is kind of why I think it could work.

Here's what I see: the contestants would be guys who either didn't get drafted and would normally go to independant league ball or to used car dealer school, or guys who were stuck in triple A so long that they have been forgotten. The prize would be to start in ten games for whatever team they could bribe into participating...probably a cash poor team (you know who you are!).

Each week they would have contests that the players would have to accomplish and be judged on. One week each player could coach a little league team on fundamentals, one week they could have a homerun contest, one week they could each have a one-armed guy who they had to teach to hit, one week they could have to hand sew regulation baseballs. Interspersed throughout would be actual stuff having to do with actual baseball ability. There are literally endless numbers of demeaning, pointless tasks these contestants could be judged on. The weekly elimination could involve having a mascot shoot the loser with one of those hotdog guns.

I am going to say it first: This is an absolutely horrible idea. However, I think people would watch. Here's a chance for the average out of shape couch potato to see real athletes, with real abilities, put through the ringer and (hopefully) humiliated. You would get to see dreams made, but also dreams dashed. I always thought I was above liking that type of entertainment, and I'd like to think I would not watch, but I admit....my favorite episodes of my cooking shows is when there is a huge blunder or ego meltdown....I think we are all a little closer than we would like to admit to the whole 'let's go watch the lions eat the Christians' mindset.

So...what do you think? Would you watch this show? We could call it Iron Baseball Idol Survivor Apprentice. It could be hosted by one of the Kardashian sisters. If you would never lower yourself to watch such a thing, do you think anyone else would?

JERI's Update...mostly off-topic

2009-11-06T04:37:43Z

OK. So it is after 10, and I'm just now getting the opportunity to sit down and type. John is in Pheonix, and has already attended a game. He sounds very happy to be there. He wanted me to tell you that he's going to try and get some good video to post for you from the games.

When John takes these trips it is always a reality check for me. We are so fortunate to be able to both be at home, so even if he is busy, if I need help with a child, or a dog needs walking, spider needs squishing, or if I have a bad night of sleep and want to stay in bed for an extra hour, he's there to help out, just like I help him with the same type of stuff. Just being able to share the day to day chores, the day to day fun, and knowing that help (and adult conversation!) is within calling distance is such a gift.

I always wonder how the heck single parents manage to keep everything going day after day. Just trying to get the dogs walked with the four year old 'helping' is enough to make me scream...not to mention doing all the kid stuff, without a break, having one kid sick, one kid with some kind of freaky insomnia from Hell...I know that in less than a week, I'll be part of a duo again, and that it won't just be me. I also know, usually after about day two of a scouting trip, why I'm not a single parent. I'm too darn wimpy.

So, there's no question of the day today, since it's so late. However, I would like to express a huge, sincere amount of awe for all the single parents of the world who manage to get it all done, and not just for a week at a time, but every day.

G'night.

PS. Once again, the picture has nothing to do with anything. It is out cat, Spock, from when he was just a few months old.

JERI's Update, and Question of the Day

2009-11-04T16:45:27Z

Greetings! It's been a while since I've posted anything for John. He's driving through New Mexico, and has assured me that he will NOT turn left at Albuquerque (rim shot!).

Just a few updates in this post. First, and most importantly, we have the order site, www.johnsickels.net, set up for the BPB2010. Yes, it still looks like the work of a drunken monkey, and yes, I would be that monkey. However, the links work, and I'm hoping that it is pretty simple to use. The older PDF files and assorted hard copies we have available of past editions are posted on the second tab (on the left side of the site). I have reached a certain level of acceptance concerning my lack of artistic ability involving, well, pretty much everything.

Our older son has strep throat...he awoke Sunday morning, after an evening of trick or treating with two other families, with a fever of 103, and a really sore throat. We got the culture, and after the first dose of antibiotics on Sunday, he was already feeling much better.

So far, John, Jackson (the four year old) and I seem to be clear, as are our friends. Is it just our circle of friends, or do you guys notice that someone always seems to get sick 12 hours after a get together, so that both families have to be at red alert for a few days waiting to see who else will get the sickness spores.

NOW, for Jeri's Question of the Day...(Not a huge, groundbreaking question, I'm just really curious to see what you think...)

I'm guessing a fair percentage of you are watching the series. Does it diminish the fun/importance of the series since both teams are from the same geographical area? How much, if any amount, do you think MLB loses in merchandising and advertising revenue when there is a local series? Or, am I just a shallow fan for thinking it's a bit boring when the teams are neighbors?

Catch you later!

Heading To Arizona

2009-11-03T02:41:37Z

We'll I'm leaving at 6 am tomorrow for Arizona. First destination target: Amarillo, TX, tomorrow evening.

Jeri will keep you entertained while I'm on the road, and I'll chime in once I get there.

Next Team Poll

2009-11-01T16:00:25Z

After I do the Nationals and Angels, I'll switch to a National League West team. I thought about doing the Diamondbacks or Rockies just to be contrary, but most of you seem interested in either the Giants or Padres. I'll do a poll on this one.

Note that my Arizona trip is going to slow down the writing considerably, and it won't accelerate again until about November 15th or so. After that things will pick up quickly as i incorporate Arizona Fall League data and get into the proper writing frame of mind.

Poll

What team should John write up after he does the Nationals and Angels?

San Diego Padres

540 votes

San Francisco Giants

657 votes

1197 votes | Poll has closed

Los Angeles Angels Farm System Discussion

2009-10-31T19:11:32Z

I'm now working on the Washington Nationals. The next team in the queue is the Los Angeles Angels, so use this thread to discuss the Angels farm system.

I'm driving to Arizona this week to take in some Fall League games and take part in the Baseball HQ First Pitch Arizona Fall League Forum.

Top 20 Kansas City Royals Prospects for 2010

2009-10-31T03:05:24Z

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Kansas City Royals first baseman Billy Butler, 2004 First Round Draft Pick (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Browse more photos »

Top 20 Kansas City Royals Prospects for 2010.

1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Looks like the best combination of projection and performance in the organization.

2) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade B+: Trying to decide between a Grade B+ and a straight B for this one. I'm willing to cut him some slack for one more season. He could do much better out of Wilmington.

3) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade B: Want to see some actual pro data before going higher with the grade, but I like him a lot and he shouldn't need a lot of development time.

4) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: Needs to sharpen up his command a bit, but projects as a number two starter if everything comes together and he stays healthy.

5) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B: I like him a lot, too, although I don't think he has quite as much projection as Melville. Crow, Melville, and Duffy could rank 3-4-5 in any order.

6) Wil Myers, C, Grade B: Love the bat, not sure about the defense. Need more pro data before going higher with the grade.

7) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade B-: A difficult grade. Will the lasik surgery fix whatever was bothering him in '09? If so, could vault back to the top of the list.

8) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B-: His numbers at Omaha are better than they look, and he has the arm strength to be a solid reliever.

9) David Lough, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, started to put things together this year, but turns 24 in January and I wish he walked more.

10) Jordan Parraz, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, really exploded this year, but injury problems and age (now 25) limit his grade.

11) John Lamb, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Has the natural ability to develop as Montgomery and Duffy have, but I'd like some higher level data.

12) Jeff Bianchi, SS-2B, Grade C+: I wish he drew more walks, but you have to respect how he fought back from injuries.

13) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Grade C+: Has great stuff, but the results weren't always there in college and pro data set (while small) shows command problems.

14) Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Grade C+: Couldn't repeat 2008 monster season, but high walk rate and moderate power are still there. I don't understand why he wasn't promoted in September. Born DH.

15) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade C+: Hampered by unlucky BABIP early in the year, but finished strong. Breakout candidate for 2010 in the Texas League. Shaky defense is an issue.

16) Louis Coleman, RHP, Grade C+: LSU product looks like a really sharp reliever to me; could rise very quickly.

17) Tyler Sample, RHP, Grade C+: Another young high-ceiling arm. Command is a question.

18) Tim Smith, OF, Grade C+: Scouts don't like his tools and he's not a huge power guy, but he seems to hit .300 everywhere he goes.

19) Cole White, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper relief arm from 2009 draft, could advance rapidly along with Coleman.

20) Blake Wood, RHP, Grade C: Terrific arm but command and injury problems hold him back. Interchangeable with most of the guys in the "other" category.

Others (All Grade C right now): Juan Abreu, RHP; Eric Basturto, RHP; Yowill Espinal, SS: Carlos Fortuna, RHP; Blaine Hardy, LHP; Keaton Hayenga, RHP; Chris "Disco" Hayes, RHP; Kelvin Herrera, RHP; Greg Holland, RHP; Dusty Hughes, LHP; Patrick Keating, RHP; Alex Llanos, OF; Chris Nicoll, RHP; Dusty Odenbach, RHP; Salvador Perez, C; Manuel Pina, C; Clint Robinson, 1B: Derrick Robinson, OF; Brandon Sisk, LHP; Nick Van Stratten, OF.

The Royals have a lot of extremely interesting pitching in the organization, with Montgomery, Melville, Crow, Duffy, Lamb, Dwyer, Sample, and Wood all having sufficient arm strength and/or command to be dominant pitchers, IF they stay healthy and develop along the expected path. They also have a lot of potentially useful relief arms, with Rosa ready to help next year, and several arms from the '09 class (Coleman most notably) who could move quickly.

Things are much different on the hitting side. Moustakas and Hosmer were big disappointments this year. Both of them are still young, and both of them had some possibly-extenuating circumstances. But the fact remains that both of them are corner players who didn't hit as well as expected and have a lot to prove in 2010. I cut Moustakas some slack on the grade because he did hit well in 2008, but graded Hosmer a bit more roughly because he hasn't done much at all in pro ball yet. Both could move up or down rather radically in 2010. Myers looks really interesting but we need to see more at higher levels. Lough and Parraz are both late-developing toolsy outfielders who may or may not sustain their progress. Bianchi and Giavotella in the middle infield also have question marks. . are they utility players or possible starters? We don't know yet. Kila looks blocked and probably needs a change of scenery.

Overall this is a system that is very thin at the upper levels, but has an intriguing group of potential impact talents lower in the organization. But I emphasize the word potential: there is a big group that has to turn projection into performance next year.

Update

2009-10-29T14:57:36Z

I'm working on the Royals and hope to have them done tonight or tomorrow. The next team after that is the Nationals, followed by the Los Angeles Angels. Note that I try to keep things balanced geographically as I work through the teams. When the Royals and Nationals are done, that will give us two central teams and two eastern teams finished, so it will be time to fill in some western clubs. After the Angels I'll do either the Padres or the Giants...I'll probably put up a poll to help me decide.

Now Taking Pre-Orders for The 2010 Baseball Prospect Book

2009-10-28T15:51:10Z

As most of you know, I'm now working on the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.

The book will contain reports on at least 1,100 players from all 30 minor league systems,and possibly as many as 1,200. It also includes my 50/50 Prospect List.

We are now taking PRE-ORDERS for the book. It will ship on February 2nd, 2010, but we need as many pre-orders as possible to finance publication.

The book is only available directly from me at www.johnsickels.net. You can use paypal to order the book directly from the website, or you can send a check to my address

John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book 2010
PO BOX 4066
Lawrence, KS 66049

Paypal is more convenient for many folks, but checks are just fine and we don't get whacked with a paypal fee for checks.

The book costs $23.95+$6 shipping for United States orders, and $23.95+$13.00 shipping for Canadian and International Orders. If using the website to order, please make sure you click the right button.

I'll be posting excerpts from the book as i get further along in the writing process. Those of you who have read the book before know that I use a blend of statistical analysis and scouting, and I try to make the book as entertaining as possible to read. The book is the center of my work, with the blog here and my writing for Rotowire being adjuncts to it.

Thanks for ordering!! I hope you enjoy it.

Washington Nationals Farm System Discussion

2009-10-27T15:20:11Z

I'm working on the Royals right now. Use this thread to discuss the Washington Nationals farm system.

Strasburg...does he get a straight Grade A? Or should I go with A- until we get more evidence?

Comparing the Phillies and the Yankees

2009-10-26T18:58:26Z

Here is a comparison of the Philadelphia and New York World Series rosters:

Phillies Roster Breakdown: 25 Players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 8 (32%)
Phillies Farm System Products: 8 (32%)
Major League Free Agents: 8 (32%)
Rule 5: 1 (4%.)

Yankees Roster Breakdown: 25 players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 7 (28%)
Yankees Farm System Products: 12 (48%)
Major League Free Agents: 6 (24%)
Rule 5: 0.

Phillies Origins Breakdown:
North American High School Draftees: 6   (24%)
Junior College Draftees:   2    (8%)
Four-Year College Draftees:   9   (36%)
Undrafted North Americans:   2   (8%)
Latin Free Agents: 5   (20%)
Asian Free Agents: 1   (4%)

Yankees Origin Breakdown:
North American High School Draftees: 9 (36%)
Junior College Draftees: 2 (8%)
Four Year College Draftees: 6 (24%)
Undrafted North Americans: 0
Latin Free Agents: 7 (28%)
Asian Free Agents: 1 (4%)

The current Phillies roster was constructed one-third via trade, one-third via the farm system, and one-third via major league free agents. The Yankees, in contrast, have almost half of the current roster (48%) developed via the farm system, with the other 52% by trade or free agent. If you want to count Andy Pettitte as a farm system product, flip those two numbers. I would note that farm products Jeter, Rivera, and Posada were developed by the system in the 1990s, a long time ago, but that important bullpen components of the pitching staff such as Chamberlain, Hughes, Coke, and Robertson are recent products.

In terms of ultimate origin, the Phillies roster is more college-oriented than the Yankees roster. The Phllies have five former first round picks (Hamels, Werth,Blanton, Lidge, Utley) while the Yankees have six (Hughes, Sabathia, Jeter, Rodriguez, Swisher, Teixeira) plus two supplemental first round picks (Chamberlain, Damon). The lowest draft picks were Ibanez (36th round) and Gaudin (34th round).

Finally, combining both clubs to get the 50 players in the World Series this year,

Combining Both Rosters: 50 players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 15 (30%)
Developed by Farm Systems: 20 (40%)
Signed as Major League Free Agent: 14 (28%)
Rule 5: 1 (2%)

North American High School Draftees:   15 (30%)
Junior College Draftees:   4 (8%)
Four-Year College Draftees:   15 (30%)
Undrafted North Americans:   2 (4%)
Latin Free Agents: 12 (24%)
Asian Free Agents:   2   (4%)