On the Forecheck

Andreas Thuresson likely to be recalled

2009-12-25T13:12:11Z

Andreas Thuresson likely to be recalled

Thanks to the guys at Admirals Short Shifts, who are indicating that Andreas Thuresson is getting the nod for at least the weekend's games against Chicago. Do we see something like this?

Erat-Arnott-Sullivan
Ward-Legwand-Jones
Hornqvist-Goc-Dumont
Thuresson-Spaling-Belak

Any thoughts?

Happy Holidays, Predators fans

2009-12-24T15:08:34Z

The posting around here (and the hockey news in general) will be very light over the next couple days, so I just wanted to take this chance to wish all of you Happy Holidays & a Merry Christmas. Thanks to all of you for what you bring to this community, and spend the next couple days checking out the bounty of Nashville Predators blogs we're fortunate enough to enjoy these days:

Pull My (Fang) Finger

And don't forget our comrades in Milwaukee, Admirals Short Shifts and MilwaukeeHockey.com.

Jerred Smithson to miss Predators/Blackhawks back-to-back set, at least

2009-12-23T19:22:42Z

Jerred Smithson to miss Predators/Blackhawks back-to-back set, at least

Bryan Mullen reports that after taking a shot off his left arm in the 1st period last night, Jerred Smithson "will not play this weekend". That would cover both games in the home-and-home series with Chicago on Saturday and Sunday.

Playoff position could prove critical for the Nashville Predators

2009-12-23T17:02:45Z

The latest report on paid attendance paints a fairly gloomy picture for the Nashville Predators, with an average of 13,060 through 19 home games reported yesterday by John Glennon, down roughly 3% from a season ago. At risk here is 25% of NHL revenue sharing, worth somewhere in neighborhood of $2-4 million, if the Predators don't achieve the critical 14,000 mark (among other targets required under the CBA).

Do the Preds have a chance at hitting 14K, and why are their numbers down from last season? Let's take a look at the details...

Besides the general economic condition (10% unemployment certainly doesn't help), a jam-packed schedule in November that included 8 home games in 17 days made it difficult to pack the house consistently. That also meant that the 19th home game came on December 15, as opposed to January 8 last year. Simply put, last season's schedule catered more to the "post-football bump" that the Predators typically experience in attendance once the college and pro football seasons are through.

So what does that mean for the Preds as they head down the stretch?

Last season, in the final 22 home games Nashville averaged 14,785 in paid attendance. If they achieved that same figure this year, the average for the entire season would come to 13,986, just short of the target.

But you can bet that the playoffs will play a large role here - remember, they are included in these figures, ~~both for NHL revenue sharing and~~ for the relevant clauses in the Sommet Center lease. UPDATE: The CBA is actually maddeningly unclear as to whether playoff ticket sales are included. I am attempting to get confirmation on this. If not, the magic number to qualify for full NHL revenue sharing becomes 14,812 as outlined below. For the purposes of the Sommet Center lease, and whether the team can void the lease early, playoff results do count towards the average.

What I've done below is outline 3 scenarios. One involves the team stumbling down the stretch, averaging only 14,500 in the final 22 home games and falling short of the playoffs. Obviously, they miss the target.

In the second, they make the playoffs and play three home games, which helps them hit the magical 14K. The final option shows what they'd do by making a 2nd round as well. Both of those final two scenarios use what I see as conservative estimates of 14,600 average paid attendance in the final 22 regular season home games, followed by 16,000 in the 1st playoff round, and 16,500 in the second.

If they match last year's 14,785 for the final 22 and make the playoffs, it's a slam-dunk that they'll achieve 14K. If the Preds can do better than that 14,785 value, they'd need 14,812 during the final months of the season to hit the target without taking the playoffs into consideration.

And remember, if you still have some Christmas shopping to do, you can always get that special someone tickets to a Predators game:

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

No playoffs
games	average	total
19 so far	13,060	248,140
final 22	14,500	319,000
41	13,833	567,140

1st Round
games	average	total
19 so far	13,060	248,140
final 22	14,600	321,200
3 playoff	16,000	48,000
44	14,030	617,340

2nd Round
games	average	total
19 so far	13,060	248,140
final 22	14,600	321,200
6 playoff	16,250	97,500
47	14,188	666,840

Wednesday's notes: Reliving the late, late show from Vancouver

2009-12-23T15:04:09Z

In case you didn't stay up for all of last night's game in Vancouver (and I can't blame you if you didn't), be sure to check out the highlights, so you don't miss another nifty goal by Patric Hornqvist to break Vancouver's shutout bid.

One special note; yesterday we passed the 500 mark for registered users here at On The Forecheck, so thanks to all of you for participating, whether it's joining in the Game Threads, posting Fan Posts or Fan Shots, or sending me questions via email or Twitter. It's going to be a fun ride during the second half of the season!

After the jump, however, we've got your morning news and notes, which includes a couple recaps of last night's game in Vancouver, an update on paid attendance numbers, and word that the Columbus Blue Jackets are desperately searching for answers to their tailspin down to 14th place in the Western Conference.

Before we get to the news, one tidbit to pass along is that Pete Weber sat in on 104.5's morning show today, and mentioned that he thought Jerred Smithson looked fine after the game, despite leaving early in the 1st period after taking a puck to his left forearm/wrist area. Obviously that's not an official team statement, but it is encouraging.

Predators News

Preds On The Glass: Vancouver Stymies Predators 4-1
Buddy's recap includes video of the Shea Weber/Ryan Kesler fight from last night.

See Puck City: Preds Hand Over Win To Vancouver; Allows Canada To Keep Pride
Only a Southern hockey fan would call Robert Luongo "Betty Lu".

Nashville Predators Power Rankings – Dec. 22, 2009 " Intelligence, Please…
George takes a look around the various weekly NHL rankings, and sese many observers singing the praises of different aspects of this Predators team.

Updated paid attendance figures - Predators Insider
The latest figures put paid attendance at 13,060 per game, down 3.4% from last year's pace after 19 home games. The thing to note here is that last season, more games came after January 1st; it's time for that "post-football season" boost to kick in.

Inner-city children need Christmas, too - The Tennessean
A letter-writer to the local rag runs down the Preds (among others) for not supporting inner-city kids throughout the year, saying they only "provide help and assistance during the holidays to those who are already well off and reside in areas like Hendersonville, Goodletsville and Franklin" It's too bad that folks don't realize the many activities that the Preds do throughout the year; it's a hard line to walk, however, because I'm sure they don't want to be seen as patting themselves on the back for all their charitable work.

Around the NHL

Canucks Finally Move Into Top 8 In West With 4-1 Victory Over Predators - Nucks Misconduct
The folks in B.C. breathe a sigh of relief after seeing the Canucks come out and play a solid game.

Well whose fault was THAT? - Mile High Hockey
Last night the Avalanche had a 2-0 lead on home ice against Anaheim, but ended up losing 4-2. Ouch...

Quiet ... On The Surface (Puck-rakers)
The Blue Jackets have been one of the biggest under-performers of the season so far... is change in the wind in Columbus?

Rumors of Thrashers Relocation a Topic in Kovalchuk Contract Talks - Bird Watchers Anonymous
The Falconer raises a great point; does speculation by the mainstream media about franchise relocation cause harm to teams trying to lock up players in long-term contracts?

CBCSports.ca - Blogs - Looking back 10 years and 30 thoughts
If it isn't already, Eliotte Friedman's weekly "30 thoughts" should be a mandatory part of your hockey diet.

Pierre McGuire, on the junior event, head shots and Olympics | Truth & Rumours
William Houston's hockey media blog catches up with Pierre McGuire as the World Juniors get underway later this week.

Nashville Predators drop road trip finale 4-1 to Vancouver

2009-12-23T06:27:20Z

The Sedin twins harassed Predators defenseman Ryan Suter all night long, with a goal and 2 assists each. (via nhl.com) More pics of the green men can be found at Orland Kurtenblog.

View full size photo »

The Nashville Predators ended their hot streak with a resounding 4-1 defeat to the Canucks, as the Vancouver forwards kept the Preds hemmed in their own zone for much of the contest. A 36-21 shot advantage correctly reflected the imbalanced play, but it was more a factor of the Canucks playing well than any particularly poor effort on Nashville's part.

Follow after the jump for the highlights, which include a dandy goal by Patric Hornqvist to break the shutout, along with the advanced stats...

The storyline to follow tomorrow will be the injury news surrounding Jerred Smithson. On an early penalty kill, he blocked a shot that appeared to catch him in the left wrist, after which he went immediately to the dressing room, not to return. Later in the game Francis Bouillon took a stick to the face and missed much of the second period, but came back for the third.

Dan Ellis certainly gave the Preds a chance with 32 saves, but when you spend that much time in your own zone, bad things tend to happen eventually.

Having taken 2 out of 3 games on the Western Canada road trip, the Preds get a couple days off before hosting the Chicago Blackhawks Saturday night in the first of a home-and-home series.

For discounted tickets to Saturday against the Chicago Blackhawks, or any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

Looking at the advanced even-strength stats, a few points in particular jump out:

Unless there's some unreported injury concern, we can only assume that Dave Scatchard was benched after taking his 2nd penalty of the night, a careless collision with Luongo. The veteran never hit the ice after that.
The Hornqvist-Goc-Dumont line was the only one that had a positive evening, with all three players contributing to the lone Nashville goal. I like Hornqvist and Dumont as a winger pair, as Hornqvist is more than willing to shoot the puck, which takes full advantage of Dumont's superior playmaking skills.
While Erat hustled and Arnott put the puck on net, the top line simply got shut down by the Canucks; that happens, and tonight Nashville just couldn't get enough from the supporting cast.

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	15:50	1	1	0	0	9	10	-1	14	19	-5
Jason Arnott	C	15:02	4	0	2	0	5	7	-2	10	17	-7
Steve Sullivan	L	15:27	2	1	1	0	7	11	-4	13	20	-7
David Legwand	C	16:13	1	1	0	1	4	8	-4	11	14	-3
Jerred Smithson	R	0:44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joel Ward	R	17:28	0	2	2	0	3	4	-1	11	8	3
Marcel Goc	C	14:00	3	0	0	0	10	6	4	18	9	9
Patric Hornqvist	R	14:37	4	3	1	0	6	5	1	14	7	7
J P Dumont	R	14:53	0	0	0	0	9	5	4	16	7	9
Nick Spaling	C	13:59	1	1	0	0	3	3	0	9	10	-1
Ryan Jones	L	9:40	0	0	1	0	1	7	-6	6	9	-3
Dave Scatchard	C	2:36	0	0	0	1	0	3	-3	1	6	-5
Shea Weber	D	19:38	0	1	0	0	7	9	-2	11	18	-7
Ryan Suter	D	20:32	1	0	1	6	9	8	1	14	16	-2
Dan Hamhuis	D	15:38	0	0	1	0	4	7	-3	12	15	-3
Kevin Klein	D	14:09	0	1	0	3	4	5	-1	12	12	0
Cody Franson	D	15:38	1	2	0	1	8	9	-1	18	12	6
Francis Bouillon	D	14:56	1	0	0	0	6	8	-2	15	11	4

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Dan Ellis, 32 saves

22 votes

Patric Hornqvist, goal & 4 shots

27 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed

Predators Game Thread #37 : Nashville @ Vancouver

2009-12-23T02:00:18Z

The captain is back in action tonight, and Dan Ellis gets the start in goal. Read the Game Day Preview, listen to Crispy's segment on the radio, and join us in the comments below!

And don't forget to fire up that extra pot of coffee...

12/22 Power Rankings Roundup: Preds perfect week prompts big jumps

2009-12-22T21:58:20Z

The Nashville Predators, 4-0-0 since our last edition, skyrocketed up as many as 10 places in the MSM's NHL power rankings, but some outlets, especially Canadian, still aren't buying. Follow after the jump where the Preds average out at 6th and ESPN gives Coach Trotz his due...

Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated is the only journalist to place the Preds as high as 5th (up 7 spots):

Maybe you wrote off their seven-game win streak in November as a team punching above its weight. Now it's on a 6-0-1 roll. May be time to recognize it's a whole greater than the sum of its parts. Surprising stat: the Preds scored at least one goal in each of the 12 periods they played last week while racking up a grand total of 23.

ESPN's Scott Burnside puts the Preds at 6th, up 6 spots, and had this to say about Coach Trotz:

No money? No problem. The best story in hockey continues to amaze after a statement win in Calgary on Saturday. We bow to you, Coach Trotz.

The Hockey News' Ryan Dixon places us at 6th, also up 6 spots:

Lots of talk about Pekka Rinne's development, but Dan Ellis has been good in the Preds crease, too

CBS Sports' Wes Goldstein has Nashville in 7th, up 10 places:

Becoming a dad for the first time recently has worked for David Legwand. He has 18 points in his last 19 games.

FoxSports.com also places us in 7th, up 5:

Patric Hornqvist wasn't the only Pred on fire last week. The play of Martin Erat also helped Nashville climb into the top 10 in the rankings. In Week 12, Erat recorded six points in his team's four wins off two goals and four assists.

Interestingly, TSN.ca has us way back at 13th, up one, even though we sit in 7th league wide:

6-0-1 in the last seven games, the Predators have been able to get their offence from unusual sources, like C Marcel Goc, who has nine points in ten games this month, after scoring five points in his last 40 games, going back to last January.

The View from 111: The Predators Are Visited By Santa

2009-12-22T21:15:54Z

The View from 111: The Predators Are Visited By Santa

Mark's blog gets hijacked by jolly St. Nick himself (no, not Lidstrom) as we get the scoop on what the Preds have coming to them this Christmas.

Great stuff to get you in the holiday mood!

Predators Game Day Preview: Nashville @ Vancouver

2009-12-22T20:07:53Z

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Two weeks ago, Martin Erat tallied a hat trick as the Predators beat the Canucks 4-2 in Nashville. Can he repeat the feat tonight as the two teams meet again in Vancouver?

Browse more photos »

Tonight the Nashville Predators (22-11-3) wrap up their 3-game road trip through western Canada against the 20-16-0 Vancouver Canucks. For the Preds, they'll look to build upon the 4-2 victory over the Canucks from two weeks ago, which featured a hat trick for Martin Erat.

It's a late start tonight (9:30 Central) on FS-TN, so until then you can check out the matchup - and while you're reading, you can listen to a segment from this afternoon's Thom Abraham Show, in which Terry Crisp previews the game (MP3 audio), and includes some interesting commentary as to how Barry Trotz turned the Predators around after a slow 2-5-1 start...

Meet the Enemy

Nucks Misconduct is your source of Vancouver Canucks coverage, and they're not a happy bunch these days. When St. Louis came to town on Sunday, they called it a test of character. The home then went out and lost 3-1 to the underachieving Blues, so I guess they failed that test.

As always, the cast of characters in Vancouver starts with Henrik & Daniel Sedin, continues through with solid complementary players like Ryan Kesler and Mikael Samuelsson, and then on to a defense corps that hasn't quite come together as expected. Mathieu Schneider was signed to boost the power play, for example, but hasn't made much impact with just 2 goals and 3 assists in 17 games.

It's a talented crew, which was widely expected to contend for the Stanley Cup, but instead currently sits in 10th place in the Western Conference. The Canucks have won 4 of the 6 games so far on a long homestand that ends Saturday against Edmonton. Vancouver wants to make as much progress on home ice as possible before heading out on a long road trip on either side of the Olympic break.

Meet the Good Guys

The big question for Nashville is whether Jason Arnott will be ready to go (UPDATE: he's in!); he was a game-day scratch against Calgary on Saturday, but has been able to practice. If he can't go, we're likely to see Marcel Goc get more duty between Steve Sullivan and Martin Erat on the top line, as the Legwand line will be relied upon to battle the Sundin twins.

A number of Predators will be playing in front of friends and family tonight, including Cody Franson, Shea Weber, and Dan Hamhuis. Might the setting prompt a big offensive game out of #6? Weber hasn't scored a goal since November 25 at Colorado, and uncharacteristically, has just 3 shots on goal in the last 4 games. Hamhuis has struggled on the defensive end recently and could use a rebound, too.

With Arnott back in, the lines are likely as follows:

Forwards

Sullivan - Arnott - Erat

Ward - Legwand - Smithson

Hornqvist - Goc - Dumont

Jones - Spaling - Belak

Defense

Suter - Weber

Hamhuis - Klein

Bouillon - Franson

Even Strength Play

	5-on-5 data from Behind the Net
TEAM	GP	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	Sht %	GA/60	SA/60	Save Pct.	+/- per 60
Nashville	36	73	63	2.6	29.2	8.7	2.2	29.0	.924	+0.3
Vancouver	36	73	60	2.7	30.4	8.8	2.2	28.7	.924	+0.5

At first this looks like about the most even matchup you could hope for, with most of these numbers with a rounding error of each other. However, these season-long totals belie the fact that the Predators have played much better since October. For example, in the last 25 games, Nashville has 58 Goals For and just 40 Goals Against in 5-on-5 play, a ratio that would rank at the very top of the league if sustained.

Advantage: Nashville

Vancouver PP vs. Nashville PK

The Canucks rank 6th with a 22.4% power play, and get a decent number of chances to make it work. One of their trigger men on the point, Sami Salo, missed some practice recently but is expected to play. The Preds penalty killing has been pretty bad lately, ranking 28th with a 76.0% kill rate.

Advantage: Vancouver

Nashville PP vs. Vancouver PK

The Predators are still sputtering with the man advantage, with a 16.3% conversion rate good for 27th in the league. The Canucks are pretty much a middle-of-the-pack team on the PK, but that's probably good enough here.

Advantage: Vancouver

Goaltending

The Canucks get to roll out Roberto Luongo every night, giving them a a chance to win every game they play:

Roberto Luongo

#1 / Goalie / Vancouver Canucks

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Born: Apr 04, 1979

	GP	MIN	W	L		GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Roberto Luongo	29	1659	16	12		67	2.42	800	733	.916	2

Dan Ellis gets the start tonight for the Predators,riding a 5-1-0 streak that includes a .924 save percentage:

Dan Ellis

#39 / Goalie / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 188

Born: Jun 19, 1980

	GP	MIN	W	L		GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Dan Ellis	16	831	8	5		37	2.67	413	376	.910	0

Advantage: Vancouver

Summary

The keys for Nashville will be to continue the strong 5-on-5 play and hope for something positive out of the special teams. While the depth scoring has been a fantastic boost, the stars like Arnott, Weber, Erat, Sullivan and J.P. Dumont (1 goal in his last 11 games) need to step up.

It will also be important for goaltending to try and rise to the challenge that Luongo presents at the other end of the ice. Dan Ellis won't have to necessarily play better than Luongo, but certainly can't afford to give up any cheap goals to Vancouver.

Tuesday's news: Nashville Predators 2.0?

2009-12-22T15:06:50Z

As the Nashville Predators prepare to close out their pre-Christmas schedule this evening, we've got a stocking-full of Preds and NHL news for you to pass the time with.

After the jump, we have a two-part look at how this season's Predators team exemplifies the philosophy of David Poile and Barry Trotz, an interesting stat reflecting Nashville's recent offensive prowess, and video of a save that has to be seen to be believed...

Predators News

The Lunch Pail Gang Rides Again (Part 1 of 2) " Pull My (Fang)Finger
AJ captures the essence of a "one for all, all for one" Predators team that is currently tearing up the Western Conference.

The Lunch Pail Gang Rides Again (Part 2 of 2) " Pull My (Fang)Finger
AJ then portrays this season's squad as somewhat of a Predators 2.0, as Barry Trotz and David Poile rebuilt the franchise after the Great Fire Sale of 2007.

Preds 101: A Preds Blog for Football Fans: Weekly Q&A: The "Are We Screwed this Offseason" Edition
More great info for that newbie hockey fan in your life, today featuring a multiple choice question!

Practice, patience make for Predatory progress; Cody Franson has faced ups and downs in Nashville but the former Giant is going places | Kelowna.com
Cody Franson has worked for a long time to get his opportunity at the NHL level, and part of that is because the Predators have learned that bringing prospects along slowly is the surer course.

Central: Predators are sneaking up on a team near you - NHL.com
Wow - did you realize the Preds have scored a goal in each of the last 14 periods of play? That's the longest streak in the league this season.

Scatchard's comeback from injury an inspiration - NHL.com
Another nice portrait of the long road that Dave Scatchard had to take to get back playing hockey.

Preds lack the (penalty) killer instinct - Nashville City Paper
David Boclair chronicles the Preds' woes on the penalty kill.

Predators find offense in unlikely trio - The Tennessean
John Glennon writes about how Nashville's shutdown line is popping in some goals as well.

Around the NHL

Brodeur clutches history, traps NHL shutout record at 104 - Puck Daddy
Martin Brodeur sets a new career shutout record in a 4-0 triumph over Pittsburgh. Interestingly, Nashville is one of just three opponents that Brodeur has never shut out.

Hockey News now finds us less influential than only 98 others - Puck Daddy
Congrats to Greg Wyshynski on being named for the 2nd year in a row to The Hockey News "100 People of Power and Influence", moving up one spot from 2008. Nashville GM David Poile came in at #38.

NHL Teams Are Learning How to Love the Tie - WSJ.com
Dynamite stuff from Gabriel Desjardins, showing clear evidence that NHL teams are "playing for the tie" late in the 3rd period this season. Can I say once again how much I hate the OT/SO loser point?

Thank You, San Jose- Nightmare on Helm Street
It's just strange to see Red Wings fans tracking their team's progress along the brink of a playoff spot, watching the out-of-town scoreboard to see if they can hang on to 8th in the West.

It's time for the Oilers to bring in a caretaker management team - Cult of Hockey
David Staples is ready to torch the current Oilers organization and start anew.

Postgame Avs-Wild – "Are you impressed enough to show up now, Avs fans?" edition | All Things Avs
Adrian Dater keeps hectoring the Colorado fans to boost their attendance numbers. In these times, that's just not a great idea.

And lastly, the save of the night goes to the Islanders' Dwayne Roloson:

Don Cherry sings the praises of Steve Sullivan on latest "Coach's Corner"

2009-12-21T20:32:15Z

As noted in Sully's interview on the Thom Abraham Show this afternoon, Don Cherry talked about Steve Sullivan quite a bit in last Saturday's Coach's Corner.

Thanks go out to the gang over at WNSR, who also forwarded me the audio from the Steve Sullivan interview for you to listen to, in case you weren't able to catch it live.

You can find the Coach's Corner video after the jump (the bit about Sully starts around the 7:00 mark)...

Carrie Underwood engaged to Ottawa Senators' Mike Fisher - can she bring him to Nashville?

2009-12-21T18:26:20Z

via www.truecountry.tv

View full size photo »

In what I'm guessing is the first (and last) time I'll need to link to People Magazine on this site, we have word this morning that country music star Carrie Underwood has publicly announced her engagement to Ottawa Senators center Mike Fisher.

So here's the question for Predators fans; might she be able to lure him to Nashville at some point in the future? We've seen hockey wives exert influence in the past over where their husbands play (as Edmonton Oilers fans know all too well with Chris Pronger and Wayne Gretzky), so what are the chances that Mike Fisher might someday don a Predators jersey?

First off, Fisher is a terrific hockey player; not necessarily a 1st-line center, but as a 3-time 20 goal scorer, well on his way to a 4th with 15 goals already, there's little doubt that he'd make a fine addition in Nashville. He does get dinged up quite a bit, but that comes with the up-tempo, energetic game he plays. As a center, he could fit in between Dumont & Hornqvist in the short term, and might make a long-term replacement once Jason Arnott hangs up the skates, whenever that happens.

Of course, that talent comes at a price. He makes $4 million during this and the next two seasons, along with $3 million in 2012-13. That level of pay, while significant, isn't out of line with the core group that the Predators rely upon. Right now there are a host of players making between $3 million and $5.25 million. Since Jason Arnott, J.P. Dumont, David Legwand and Martin Erat are all covered by no-trade clauses in their contracts, you can bet that none of those players would be likely to head the other way in a theoretical deal.

Granted, this isn't to say that anything will (or even should) happen this season on this front; but it's an idea to keep in mind each summer, as that's when it's most reasonable for teams to make deals for players under long-term contracts like his.

And if Ms. Underwood ends up being viewed as a villain in Ottawa for swiping away one of their top young stars - well, that's just part of being a good Preds fan, Carrie. You do what it takes to help the team!

Lastly, I'll leave you with an interview from last month in which Carrie talks about Mike:

Welcome to all the new visitors today to On the Forecheck. Take a look around, consider joining our community, and/or follow me on Twitter at @Forechecker.

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

Poll

Do you think Mike Fisher might end up playing for the Nashville Predators once he's married to Carrie Underwood?

Predators tough guy Wade Belak kicks off Puck Daddy podcast "Puck Tracks"

2009-12-21T17:27:53Z

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Browse more photos »

As part of their effort to dominate the hockey media, the Puck Daddy blog over at Yahoo Sports has launched a new podcast called "Puck Tracks", and who did they select as their inaugural guest? None other than Nashville's own Wade Belak...

You can check it out after the jump:

Puck Tracks Episode 1: Wade Belak @ Yahoo! Video

Patric Hornqvist named NHL's 3rd Star of the Week

2009-12-21T17:20:38Z

Patric Hornqvist named NHL's 3rd Star of the Week

With 4 goals and 3 assists across 4 games, Nashville Predators winger Patric Hornqvist was named the NHL's 3rd Star of the Week.

Monday's news: Going gaga over Goc

2009-12-21T15:02:30Z

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Browse more photos »

Sure, the Chicago Blackhawks pulled back into sole possession of the Western Conference lead by beating Detroit yesterday, but the Nashville Predators are riding high these days, and so are their fans. Perhaps one of the most satisfying elements of the team is that contributions are coming from almost every portion of the roster.

After the jump, our morning news and notes includes two pieces which focus on one such surprise, center Marcel Goc. Signed off the free agent market as a depth forward, he's stepped up in recent days to create some offense in addition to his solid faceoff and defensive work.

Predators News

Five reasons why Nashville announcer Paul McCann loves hockey - Puck Daddy
The man behind "Thanks, Paul..." is the latest participant in the long-running Puck Daddy series, and his answers are pure gold.

Preds On The Glass: POTG Radio with Russ Cohen - World Junior Preview and More
Buddy's got your morning update, including the lineup for his podcast tonight.

Nashville Predators' Dan Ellis to appear on NHL Live! - NHL Network
The Preds goalie will be a guest on the radio today...

In Goc We Trust – Player Feature #2, Marcel Goc " Point-2-Point
A bit of background in celebration of Marcel Goc's contributions to the Preds this season.

Nashville’s Weber and Suter wait for Olympic calls - NHL.com
Have you heard? Nashville's dynamic duo of defensemen are likely headed to Vancouver (for the Olympics, not just the game tomorrow).

Predators surprised by Marcel Goc's offense - The Tennessean
All it took to light up Goc's offensive game was to get him out of San Jose and plug him in to the Nashville juggernaut.

Around the NHL

Blue Jackets notebook: Mason is no longer No. 1 | BlueJacketsXtra
Steve Mason hasn't looked at all like the Calder Trophy-winning goalie of last year, and Ken Hitchcock has officially adopted the "hot hand" approach to choosing the starter each night.

A Theory of Ice: Fragile Things
E is one of the most thoughtful, entertaining hockey writers you'll find anywhere, and today opines on the "play through pain" culture of the sport, and how it relates to the current debate on head-shots and long-term brain damage.

Coming Down the Pipe!: Memories of a WJC Hero
With the World Juniors starting in just a few days, Guy Flaming walks us through some heroes of tourneys past.

Objective NHL: Even Strength Data for Games 1-500
Taking a look at total Shots For & Against data at even strength so far this season; the Preds come out as a pretty impressive bunch.

On Frozen Blog › Forgotten No Longer: The 1960 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team
In preparation for the Winter Olympics, check out a new documentary about the original "Miracle on Ice".

Red Light District: Sorting out the playoff picture in the West
RLD attempts to clarify a jumbled situation in the West.

Kovalchuk Contract Talks Intensify - Bird Watchers Anonymous
The Russian superstar's agent makes an appearance in Atlanta... is a new deal close?

Lastly, Bloge Salming and Down Goes Brown bring us secret footage from the Toronto Maple Leaf's Christmas party...

Are the Nashville Predators a real Western Conference power?

2009-12-21T02:16:26Z

More photos » by Kate Humphrey - AP

The Nashville Predators have been doing plenty of celebrating lately; but are some of their recent wins just a case of the bounces going their way, or are the Preds a legitimate threat in the West?

Browse more photos »

Nashville Predators fans are downright giddy these days. A lousy start has been turned around remarkably, first with a seven-game winning streak in mid-November, and currently with a 6-0-1 stretch that has lifted them up among the Western Conference leaders like Chicago, San Jose and Los Angeles.

In the background, however, a tiny voice wonders - are they playing above their heads? Are the Predators really this good, or is this just a hot streak full of fortunate bounces that will surely be balanced out in the near future? Let's take a look at what the numbers might tell us...

In the past I've used a method called "Pythagenpuck" (PDF) to compare the actual points percentage (points earned in the standings as a fraction of the total possible) of various teams to what would be expected based on their Goals For and Against. Over the course of time it proves to be a very reliable indicator of team performance. The basic idea is that if you see a team with a points percentage well above or below the Expected value, one should anticipate that going forward they'll fall back in line, unless there's a significant reason for the Goals For & Against ratio to change (say, due to major roster or coaching changes). This model excludes points in the standings earned by winning a game in the shootout, as that's basically a coin-flipping exercise. You get two points for winning in regulation or OT, one point for losing in OT or the shootout, and zero for losing in regulation.

So what does Pythagenpuck tell us about the Nashville Predators this season?

As we all know, the Preds got off to a slow start this season, going 2-5-1 in the opening weeks as the team struggled to score goals, and J.P. Dumont missed action after taking a vicious hit in the second period of Game 1. After he returned things started looking up on the offensive end, and as Francis Bouillon rounded into shape playing a Top Four defensive role after signing at the end of training camp, the Goals Against began to settle down as well.

The following table lays out how the season has gone, breaking out the first 8 games, along with two looks at the short- and long-term positive streaks the team has been on, and the season totals:

	Record	Goals For	Goals Against	Exp. Points	Actual Points	Diff
Opening 8 games	2-5-1	11	25	2.3 (.141)	4	+1.7
Last 26	19-5-2	85	68	32.3 (.620)	37	+4.7
Last 7	6-0-1	32	21	10.0 (.716)	12	+2.0
Total to date	22-11-3	102	100	36.8 (.511)	43	+6.2

Again, remember that the "Actual Points" may be a few points short of what you'd expect from the record, due to the exclusion of shootout winners in the Pythagenpuck analysis.

Basically, although the Preds have won a few more points than one would expect based on Goals For and Against all along the way, their play since the opening weeks of the season has been truly excellent; using GF/GA from the 26-game stretch (85-68) across all 82, along with a few shootout wins, would yield something around a 105 point season, just a hair ahead of what Chicago earned for 4th place in the Western Conference last spring.

In other words, with a relatively healthy lineup and decent, but not spectacular goaltending, the Predators have played like a strong playoff contender, not just a hopeful. And while there are legitimate questions about how well they can keep up the scoring pace, there is also upside on the defensive side of the puck. Pekka Rinne (.905) and Dan Ellis (.910) can both do better in terms of save percentage; even a modest improvement there would balance out any expected decline in goal-scoring from the forwards.

In NASCAR, they like to use the phrase "drive it like you stole it." For the Predators, those extra points in the standings are like stolen goods that are now stocked away safely; if they can keep up the Goals For & Against performance like they have over the last two months, those early gains could make enough of a difference to earn them home-ice advantage during the playoffs.

5 Reasons the NHL's best PA announcer loves hockey

2009-12-20T21:28:19Z

5 Reasons the NHL's best PA announcer loves hockey

Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo Sports asks Nashville Predators PA announcer Paul McCann for five reasons why he loves hockey...

A breakdown of Martin Erat's goal

2009-12-20T18:44:40Z

A breakdown of Martin Erat's goal

Another great step-by-step breakdown of Erat's goal from yesterday's win in Calgary.

Nashville Predators top Calgary 5-3, continue incredible run

2009-12-20T00:25:42Z

More photos » by Larry MacDougal - AP

Nashville Predators' Dave Scatchard, left, celebrates his empty-net goal against the Calgary Flames with Martin Erat during the third period.

Browse more photos »

Thanks to an empty-net goal by Dave Scatchard in the final minute, the Nashville Predators scored 5 goals for the 4th consecutive game as they beat the Flames 5-3 on the road, ending a five-game losing streak against Calgary.

Despite getting outshot 32-20, the Preds held on to a lead gained early in the 3rd period to run their record to 6-0-1 in their last 7, and 19-5-2 in their last 26 games.

Click the picture above for more photos from today's game, and follow after the jump for video highlights, commentary, and advanced even-strength statistics...

Once again, a whole-team offensive effort made the difference for Nashville. Martin Erat and Marcel Goc led the Preds with a goal and two assists each, while Cody Franson had a goal and an assist, and Joel Ward added two assists.

They say it's better to be lucky than good, and Dan Ellis was a bit of both today. In the 3rd period Calgary generated several good chances, but either missed the net or failed to connect on crossing passes. The breaks didn't all go one way, however, as one of Jarome Iginla's two goals would have gone wide of the net, were it not for Dan Hamhuis sliding along the ice and banking the puck in. Ellis finished with 29 saves.

The offensive outburst was especially impressive given the scratch of Jason Arnott today, due to a mysterious "upper body injury". Goc was moved up to center the top line, but both forward units and defense pairs appeared to shuffle often during the game.

The Predators now rank 11th in the NHL in Goals per Game with 2.83. How many of us could have predicted that prior to the season?

Well, I did project this team to score around 235 goals this year; currently they are on pace for 232.

The Preds finish off this road trip Tuesday in Vancouver before returning home for a Saturday, December 26 game against Chicago, with whom they are tied atop the Central Division.

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

Digging into the even-strength stats, can I sing the praises once again of Cody Franson? This guy continues to put up positive results within a limited role, getting barely half the even-strength ice time of the Top Four.

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Marcel Goc	C	16:06	2	0	0	0	7	11	-4	11	13	-2
Martin Erat	R	16:19	3	0	1	1	7	13	-6	14	18	-4
Steve Sullivan	L	14:17	0	2	0	0	5	13	-8	10	17	-7
David Legwand	C	16:25	2	0	1	1	5	12	-7	11	18	-7
Jerred Smithson	R	14:51	0	0	0	0	3	8	-5	5	12	-7
Joel Ward	R	15:50	1	0	0	1	4	9	-5	6	15	-9
Patric Hornqvist	R	12:13	0	0	0	0	4	3	1	9	10	-1
Dave Scatchard	C	8:43	2	0	1	0	2	3	-1	6	7	-1
J P Dumont	R	13:13	2	0	0	1	4	2	2	7	8	-1
Wade Belak	R	4:37	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	2	0
Nick Spaling	C	12:35	0	0	1	0	3	2	1	6	8	-2
Ryan Jones	L	7:01	0	0	0	0	1	4	-3	4	8	-4
Shea Weber	D	18:15	2	1	1	3	7	15	-8	12	22	-10
Ryan Suter	D	20:25	0	0	1	2	7	17	-10	12	24	-12
Dan Hamhuis	D	13:24	1	1	0	0	5	5	0	9	8	1
Kevin Klein	D	20:57	0	0	0	1	4	9	-5	7	19	-12
Cody Franson	D	10:55	1	3	1	0	5	3	2	12	4	8
Francis Bouillon	D	18:44	0	0	1	0	4	7	-3	10	15	-5

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Dan Ellis, 29 saves

34 votes

Martin Erat, 1 goal, 2 assists

41 votes

Cody Franson, GW goal, 1 assist

12 votes

Marcel Goc, 1 goal, 2 assists

21 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Date:	December 22, 2009	Location:	Vancouver, BC
Time:	9:30 PM	Arena:	GM Place
TV:	FS-TN	SBN Affiliate:	Nucks Misconduct
Radio:	104.5	Season Series	1-0-0