Over the Monster

Weekly Recap (Truck Day Edition)

2012-02-11T14:01:06Z

So that was quite the week, eh? The Red Sox didn't sign anyone. No one played any baseball games. There was a football game of notable unpleasantness. I got nothing, folks. It's the second week in February, and it's sunny and 50 in Boston. I'm not even sure where I live anymore.

This is a raw time of year for those in the writing-about-baseballing business. No games to report on. No free agents left, except for Roy Oswalt, who's still holed up in his volcano lair. Even so, I think we managed to put together a pretty solid week of Red Sox coverage and analysis here at Over the Monster.

To the recapping!

As you may recall, the week started with hangovers both literal and psychological. The New England Patriots, the shoulder-padded, Elvis-helmeted guys who get us through a fall and winter of baseball-less Sundays, played the New York Giants in the Superbowl. It did not turn out well. We'll leave it at that. This led to a lot of soul-searching, and... No, scratch that. It led to a lot of drinking. And cursing. And really, really hating Eli Manning and his freakish ability to chuck a ball blindly into the stratosphere and somehow have a guy catch it, that miserable, chinless...ahem. I have digressed. Anyway, the Superbowl did produce one good outcome: Matt Kory's terrific column on the relative importance of the regular season in MLB and the NFL.

Oddly, being fans of the New England sports teams, we have experienced failure once or twice before. Notably, just last fall. Something about September, and a local baseball franchise going 7-20. In case you'd forgotten about any of that, Cee Angi put together a review of last year's darkest moments. Think how much fun it'll be looking back on that when the Red Sox are six games up in August and smashing opposing pitching staffs into a pasty substance. Character-building.

Right, right, the pitching staff, Still haven't fixed the pitching staff. Anything get done on that front? Well, the Sox have stockpiled more than a few potentially useful arms in the minors. Marc Normandin discussed Aaron Cook, one of those arms, and what the Sox might expect from him. Looking at the trade market, Ben Buchanan traveled (metaphorically, I think) to the banks of the Ohio to take a look at maybe-available Reds righty Homer Bailey. What about Roy Oswalt? Think he might sign with the Sox? Marc took a look at the veteran righty who makes Hamlet look like The Decider.

But hey, Boston did sign a pitcher! He's tall! And Australian! And... 17. Dude was born while I was in middle school. I'm going to take a brief break from writing to feel old. Anyway, the Sox signed a giant lefty with an awesome fastball who may someday come to the bigs and force Fenway to serve Foster's. So a mixed bag.

February's a great time for looking ahead, whether toward the new season or seasons to come. For the short term, Marc gave us all a peek at Baseball Prospectus's legendary PECOTA projections for the 2012 Red Sox. In longer-term scrying, we gave you a look at Level-20 Snark Master Keith Law's minor-league rankings. Unsurprisingly, the Sox are in the middle of the pack, but with some upside. Speaking of upside, Matt Sullivan took a look at high-minors prospects Jose Iglesias and Will Middlebrooks, and whether they can contribute to the major-league club, even if their bats aren't quite ready.

More of an offense-minded reader? Marc provided, with a look at just how good the Red Sox have been in two-strike counts. Like pure offense, none of that messy glovework? Then I imagine you're a David Ortiz fan. And luckily for you, Ortiz agreed to terms with the Sox, avoiding arbitration. Or not. Internet journalism is messy, man.

No baseball offseason would be complete without meta-criticism. Matt Kory charged right into the lion's den, telling Boston Red Sox fans that they should be optimistic going into spring. The response was... mixed. But he's right, and more importantly, he had the nerve to challenge his readers. Can't imagine a better approach to writing.

Challenging his readers is something that has always escaped Jon Heyman, he's much more the "appeal to base emotions and also I know Scott Boras" type. Since he decided to affect knowledge of anything Red Sox, we felt it only right to respond. I expended a few words on how he was wrong in baseball terms, and Ben drove it home with a masterful piece on the soccer aspect of the story, proving that baseball isn't the sport Heyman's worst at writing about.

So that was the week. Best part of this week? We're seven days closer to Opening Day. Happy Truck Day, everyone!

Roy Oswalt Race Down To Red Sox And Cardinals

2012-02-10T23:42:52Z

Roy Oswalt Race Down To Red Sox And Cardinals

Jayson Stark reports that the Rangers are out of it -- in fact, says it's "not gonna happen" -- meaning it's down to just Boston and St. Louis. Boston has the money, St. Louis has the geography; we should know soon, given the proximity to spring training.

Friday Red Sox Notes: Spring Training, Kevin Youkilis, Truck Day

2012-02-10T21:05:51Z

It's been another relatively slow February day in the baseball world aside from an arbitration case that apparently was not, but there's still a few things going on in Red Sox Nation.

First, for the TMZ angle, we've got Kevin Youkilis, who's apparently engaged to one Julie Brady. Good for him! But the story goes from barely a bullet point to a minor media frenzy when you realize that this Brady is related to the other Brady, being Tom Brady's sister. Good on Youk for keeping it within the Boston, uh, family. Now can anyone dig up a connection between Kelli Pedroia and Paul Pierce?

***

Alright, now that that's over with, onto things actually baseball related, like the presence of quite a few players at Boston's new spring training facility down in Florida.

The Globe's Peter Abraham is on the scene with some iPhone-quality pictures, but assures us that the blurry figures in question include the likes of Jon Lester, Andrew Miller, and recovering pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Rich Hill. It's now t-minus nine days and counting until the official date for pitchers and catchers to report, but chances are there will already be plenty of guys down there already by that point.

Of course, those who are down in Florida are without their precious truck-transported equipment, as we are still one day away from the unofficial opening ceremony of the season. There has been precious little hype surrounding the event this year, perhaps due to the less-than-rosy feelings surrounding the end of the year and the offseason, but that won't keep the fanatical few from making the pilgrimage to Fenway on what is expected to be a chilly, rainy Saturday.

***

Speaking of spring training, the Red Sox have released their broadcast schedule for spring training games. Here it is courtesy of NESN (games without broadcasts omitted):

Saturday, March 3: Boston College, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Sunday, March 4: Minnesota Twins, JetBlue Park, 1:35 p.m. (NESN, WRKO)
Monday, March 5: Minnesota Twins, Hammond Stadium, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Friday, March 9: Pittsburgh Pirates, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, WRKO)
Saturday, March 10: Tampa Bay Rays, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Sunday, March 11: Baltimore Orioles, Sarasota, 1:05 p.m. (NESN)
Monday, March 12: Miami Marlins, JetBlue Park, 1:35 p.m. (ESPN)
Tuesday, March 13: New York Yankees, Tampa, 7:05 p.m. (WEEI)
Friday, March 16: Minnesota Twins, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (WEEI)
Saturday, March 17: Baltimore Orioles (SS), JetBlue Park, 1:35 p.m. (WEEI)
Sunday, March 18: Tampa Bay Rays, Port Charlotte, 1:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Tuesday, March 20: Toronto Blue Jays, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Thursday, March 22: New York Yankees, JetBlue Park, 7:05 p.m. (NESN, ESPN, WRKO)
Saturday, March 24: Philadelphia Phillies (SS), JetBlue Park, 1:35 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Sunday, March 25: Toronto Blue Jays, Dunedin, 1:05 p.m. (NESN, WEEI)
Monday, March 26: Philadelphia Phillies, Clearwater, 1:05 p.m. (ESPN)
Saturday, March 31: Tampa Bay Rays, Port Charlotte, 1:05 p.m. (WEEI)
Sunday, April 1: Minnesota Twins, JetBlue Park, 1:35 p.m. (NESN, WRKO)

So, OTM, how long before we get completely and totally tired of spring training games? I'm going to guess March 10 after the Rays game, with a little spike when we hit the Yankees for the first time.

***

Finally, we've got some word from Nick Cafardo on Rich Hill's rehab, and what effect his injury could have on his delivery:

Throwing three-quarters for now results in less stress on the arm and elbow. Hill would prefer to go back to being a sidearm reliever, which he converted to last season. He was very effective against lefthanded hitters with the funky delivery. Will he come back as a "down-under'' pitcher?

"That's something we'll be talking about,'' Hill said. "I've felt really good throwing over the top throughout the whole rehab process, but it's really going to be about what's needed for the team.

Hill, of course, surprised everyone last year by making nine dominating appearances out of the bullpen last year, with his curve seemingly unhittable. It would be a shame to lose that weapon, but while Hill says it's about what's best for the team, it's certainly not best to have any player missing whole seasons after surgery.

John Henry, Liverpool Finances, And The Red Sox

2012-02-10T17:28:05Z

Earlier today, our newest writer Brendan called out Jon Heyman on going back to the old, tired angle of blaming Liverpool for all of Boston's problems. It's a great piece, so go read it, again if necessary.

Now, Brendan looked at this from the perspective of the Red Sox and their spending, pointing out that Payroll is just as high as ever and the only thing John Henry can be accused of is not matching the Yankees. I'm going to come at this from the other side. Thanks to the enthusiasm of my roommates, I have in the past year (I am ashamed to say?) become a fan of the English Premiere League, in particular Arsenal FC.

While I by no means claim to be an authority on the league or anything like that, this has led me to pay some more attention to the realities of the EPL, and helped me pick up on a bit of what John Henry's doing. And while we've tried to keep Liverpool as far away from this site as possible over the past year-and-a-half, this line of attack doesn't seem to be going away in the media, so here we are.

Let's take a look at how things go on across the Atlantic after the jump.

EPL Finances And You (Or Not)

It must be said, based on the way the Premier League works, there's plenty of reason to have some initial misgivings about John Henry's involvement in with Liverpool. While here in America it's widely acknowledged that sports franchises are businesses which are designed to make money, this actually isn't the norm at the highest level of English football. The fact of the matter is that teams lose money all the time--sometimes a lot of money.

For example, Manchester City. Purchased not too long ago by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan--a member of Abu Dabhi's royal family--the team has been absolutely hemorrhaging money over the past few years, with their losses reaching an unthinkable £179 million in 2011. They are an outlier, but only in terms of amounts. In recent history, only Arsenal has consistently found themselves significantly in the black, with a few small clubs occasionally rising above (the Wolverhampton Wanderers did so last year).

A large reason for this is the transfer system. In Baseball, we only think in terms of salary, but European soccer is all about buying and selling. Let's say the Sox were after Felix Hernandez. In the MLB, they have to offer up a big package of young prospects and cost-controlled players, but that's only a loss in terms of potential savings. In Europe, the big clubs don't often trade for their talent, but instead sink millions and millions into purchasing them from other teams. Those numbers Heyman listed are actually transfer fees, not salaries. Then again, he also doesn't list the players Liverpool has sold along the way, which bring them down to a net loss on transfers of about £40 million over the past three years.

Still, losses are losses. So why did John Henry choose to get involved in this crazy, profitless world? Because he's a businessman, and sees potential.

A Chance For Profit

First, just some proof of concept. Last week, after making no moves in the January transfer window (think of it as the mid-season trade deadline), Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger explained to the media that before spending, he needs to ensure some £15-20 million pounds in profit. Arsenal is owned (to the chagrin of its fans) by one Stan Kroenke, an American businessman who also owns the Denver Nuggets and St. Louis Rams. While the actual scenario is a little ridiculous since Arsenal are on the verge of missing out on a £20 million+ payoff based on where they finish in the Premier League this year, it does show that there's an opportunity to make money in this environment.

Now, for what makes John Henry think he can turn a profit. First up is the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules that are just around the corner. The organization that runs the most prestigious of tournaments in football (the UEFA Champions League, featuring the top teams from around Europe), UEFA is essentially telling teams they can't lose outrageous amounts of money if they want to make it to what is essentially the playoffs. Given the massive financial rewards involved in the Champions League (the aforementioned payoff), there's a great deal of incentive to conform.

While there are some loopholes that need closed, generally this should act as a form of salary cap for the biggest teams in Europe. And while Henry will not be looking to turn any losses, if he can run Liverpool better than Manchester United or City are run, then it gives Liverpool a shot to compete even when turning a profit.

Then there's the television rights. For the Red Sox, NESN enables them to keep profits up despite their massive payroll. This is an advantage that EPL teams aren't allowed to take advantage of at the moment, with the league handling the collective rights and splitting the profits amongst the teams in much the same way that MLB teams do merchandise sales. The upshot of this is that big teams like Liverpool with followers all over the world aren't able to effectively leverage their fanbase into more money except in ticket sales.

John Henry, however, is a businessman, and so has wasted little time in having the club press that issue. As much as Soccer and the EPL are still distant fifths in the American sports race, there have been some gains, with ESPN starting to show EPL matches with some regularity in the early morning (Liverpool vs. Manchester United is actually airing on ESPN2 tomorrow, for example), and we've all seen NESN pushing the Liverpool agenda, perhaps hoping to establish a regional fanbase while the country is largely uncolonized.

Of course, America is just one target in a world that is, frankly, obsessed with the game. With Liverpool being one of England's oldest and most storied clubs, and with an executive familiar with taking full advantage of television profits at the helm, the club stands to gain more than almost any other club should they be able to break off.

John Henry, Businessman

Now, by no means am I saying that Henry is going to get what he wants. All this could come apart at the seams if his power play for TV rights fails, or the loopholes in UEFA prove too great. But in the end the likelihood is that will just lead to Henry selling to some new owner who wants to dump his fortune into bringing Liverpool back to prominence. John Henry has never been that guy. He's not a lifelong Liverpool fan, and he's never gone crazy and spent $300 million on the Red Sox for purposes of buying a title.

What he is is a businessman--one who sees the potential for profit in the world's most popular sport as it undergoes financial changes. If he is currently losing money on the club, then that's nothing more than an investment towards future profitability, and given all the money he has, he doesn't need to be taking away from the Boston Red Sox to do that. That's why payroll isn't dropping, and that's why it will continue to stay high regardless of what goes on in England.

So can we please put this poor excuse of an attack to rest?

Red Sox, David Ortiz (Don't) Avoid Arbitration

2012-02-10T15:29:34Z

[Update 10:45 am] Maybe not, says Buster Olney. And Paoletti's original tweet about the signing no longer exists. As of this moment, Ortiz and the Red Sox do not have a deal in place.

*****

Mary Paoletti of Comcast SportsNet New England tweets that, during an interview with sister station NECN, Larry Lucchino announced that David Ortiz and the Red Sox have an agreement in place, and will avoid Monday's scheduled arbitration hearing.

There is no word on the terms as of yet, but given the team president and CEO Lucchino dropped the news, it's likely a done deal.

Ortiz had filed for arbitration at $16.5 million after he and the Red Sox were unable to come to a deal in December. That figure marked a significant raise from last year's $12.5 million base salary, and just as far from the Red Sox' $12.65 million filing. Ortiz stood to make the most ever in an arbitration hearing, regardless of which side won, according to Maury Brown of Biz of Baseball:

The highest amount ever awarded in a hearing is $10 million (Howard won his case in 2007, while Francisco Rodriguez with the Brewers in 2007 and Alfonso Soriano with the Nationals in 2005 lost their cases). Win or lose, Ortiz smashes that number due to his long-tenure.

Both sides will avoid that, as Ortiz, like so many others who filed for a high figure prior to arbitration, settled away from the judge. This also means the Red Sox can continue their decade-long streak of avoiding arbitration -- the last arbitration case that went in front of a judge was that of Rolando Arrojo in 2002. You forgot he existed, didn't you?

In Which Jon Heyman Discusses The Red Sox, And I Get Angry

2012-02-10T14:00:55Z

Stop me if you've heard this one: Why did John Henry cross the road? He didn't, because he was too busy watching soccer! (ba-dum-bum) Lame as that joke is, I'm fairly certain the thirty seconds I spent thinking it up is more time than Jon Heyman spent deliberating before posting this little gem yesterday. Did you guys know that the Red Sox haven't spent much money this offseason? And that the rotation isn't yet set? And also that there might be (gasp) a platoon at shortstop? Crazy, right?

So timeliness isn't exactly the strong suit of the column. But really, it's not the weakest point. The weakest point is, well, everything else. It's as though Heyman took every straw man argument, every overblown critique, and every piece of pointless front-office mind-reading that's flown around Boston since the Cherington era started, and distilled it into 2-buck vodka. And life's too short to drink 2-buck vodka.

The central argument of the piece is threefold: first, that the Red Sox cheaped out this winter; second, that this has left the team fatally flawed; and third, that this can all be directly attributed to John Henry prioritizing the Liverpool Football Club. So let's take a look at each of these attacks, and see if any of them hold water.

ARGUMENT 1: The Red Sox didn't spend any money this offseason, which was both foolish and cheap.

If there's a single overarching critique of the Red Sox this offseason, this is it. No big-name free agents, no long-term contracts, even an obvious salary dump in the trade of Marco Scutaro to the Rockies. Clearly, they're acting like a small-market team, probably because ownership doesn't fully trust Ben Cherington. As Heyman puts it:

It's obvious poor Cherington was given pennies to try to compete with the Yankees and Rays, perhaps the two best teams in baseball, following the departure of his legendary mentor Theo Epstein.

Quick tip: anytime a sportswriter tells you that the inner workings of a front office are "obvious" without a quote (even an anonymous one), he is full of it. Actually, Heyman never quotes anyone in the entire article, which should tell you something about how well-sourced and researched his column is. In addition, anyone claiming that the Red Sox are cheaping out in their competition with the Rays, when their payroll is literally three times the Rays'... Just mind-blowing. Anyway, let's take a look. Did the Red Sox spend any money this offseason? And if not, should they have?

As previously mentioned, the Red Sox didn't sign any big free agents this year, not even their own Jonathan Papelbon. (Credit where credit is due, Heyman does compliment Cherington for filling in the back end of the bullpen with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon.) Of course, just because the Red Sox didn't sign any big free agents doesn't mean they didn't spend any money on players. Quite the contrary, actually. These are the players who saw a substantial raise in their salaries this offseason, either through arbitration-related contracts or prior contractual bumps:

Jon Lester: +$1.88 million
Dustin Pedroia: +$2.5 million
Jacoby Ellsbury: +$5.65 million
Clay Buchholz: +$3.195 million
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: +$1.75 million
Adrian Gonzalez: +$15.56 million
Carl Crawford: +$5.5 million

That's a little over $36 million, not counting Andrew Bailey's $3.4 million arb raise and David Ortiz's still-pending arb case, which could add another $4 million to the pile. No, spending more money to keep players on your own team isn't particularly sexy, but it counts. And the Sox payroll heading into 2012 looks to be somewhere in the vicinity of the $178 million luxury tax threshold, second only to the Yankees. They'll have seven players making over $10 million. "Pennies to spend" and "small-market" are not the first terms that come to mind.

Let's say you don't buy that. The Red Sox should have spent more on free agents, and damn the luxury tax. After all, don't I spend $6.25 a pop for Bud Light at the park? Fair enough. Let's consider this year's free agent class, and the needs of the Boston franchise heading into 2012. Specifically, where were the Sox weak in 2011, and who on the FA market might have fixed that? Well, I think we can all agree that the main holes were right field, and every starter not named Beckett or Lester. Right field Heyman doesn't address, which I'll assume is because Cody Ross is Officially Scrappy. Besides, Boston's right fielders in 2011 put up an OPS of .652. In a lovely coincidence that doesn't make me weep at all, .652 was the 2011 OPS of Yuniesky Betancourt. Basically anyone who knows which end of the bat to hold is an upgrade.

Starters, though. Who could the Sox have signed to boost the rotation? Must have been someone, right? Well, take a look at ESPN's list of FA starters. Basically, the one guy on the market who screamed "give me lots of money, big-market teams!" was C.J. Wilson. Who is pretty good. For a 31-year-old pitcher with decent peripherals in the AL West who wound up signing a 5-year, eight-figure contract. Can you see why perhaps the Red Sox might be justifiably skittish there? Conveniently, this leads us into the second piece of the argument.

ARGUMENT 2: As a result of their sudden stinginess, the Red Sox are fatally flawed and will struggle to compete.

Heyman seems content with the Sox' platoon in right, and I'm sick of arguing about it. So we'll leave it alone. He focuses on three problem spots: shortstop and the 4-5 slots in the rotation. I seem to recall hearing worry elsewhere about these portions of the roster. Are the worries well-founded? Can the Sox contend with such obviously glaring holes at key positions?

At shortstop... Honestly, I'm passing here. Marc covered this way better than I ever could two weeks ago. Suffice to say that an Aviles-Punto combo won't exactly make us forget Nomar's prime, but it's not a huge dropoff from Scutaro. And frankly, tell me with a straight face that Derek Jeter or Reid Brignac will be MVPs this year. Baseball has gotten away from the mega-scoring of the late 90's and early 00's, and shortstop has resumed its traditional role as the position that doesn't hit. I miss Nomar. We all miss Nomar. Then again, when Nomar was at short, the Sox had Jeff Frye and Jose Offerman at second. Now they've got Dustin Pedroia.

What's left? Oh, right. The starting rotation. It's "highly questionable," says Heyman. So let's question it. Will Josh Beckett and Jon Lester be an acceptable 1-2? Precedent suggests they'll be not just acceptable, but arguably the best 1-2 in the division. 3 slot? Well, it'll be Clay Buchholz, who last year put up the best peripherals of his career before he was sidelined with a back injury. Will he be that good, and that good for an entire season? It's a fair question, but by most accounts he would have been available had the Sox made the playoffs last year, and he's had nothing but time to heal and build strength since then. Most of Heyman's questions regard the latter two slots in the rotation. So let's address those.

Last year, the Boston Red Sox won 90 games, missing the wild card by one game. They produced a +138 run differential. And they did so despite the fact that 63 of their games were started by Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield, and John Lackey, who delivered respective 5.54, 5.12, and 6.41(!) ERAs. The league average ERA in 2011 was 3.94. The Red Sox' current back end of Daniel Bard and a Cook/Silva/Padilla Cerberus doesn't even have to be league-average, and in fact can be substantially worse, and the pitching staff will still have improved. This is not necessarily an endorsement of the current rotation. It's a condemnation of last year's. 2011's starting pitching, other than Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz (and Buccholz replacement Erik Bedard) was historically terrible.

And even though Heyman's convinced that Roy Oswalt won't come to Boston (doesn't say where he's more likely to go, just not Boston), Roy's running out of options. If he finally decides that he can deal with our accents, our rotaries, and our beer that doesn't taste like it's already been through a horse, the Sox rotation pretty quickly becomes a potential strength. So maybe, just maybe, the Red Sox haven't massively increased their payroll because they're comfortable with the team they've got. No, wait, I forgot about...

ARGUMENT 3: John Henry isn't spending on the Red Sox because his ownership of LFC has drained his finances/attention.

This is where the column's argument goes from analysis (lazy, minimally-researched analysis, but analysis nonetheless) into full-on speculation. Heyman even says flat-out that it's a guess, which is maddening. Everyone, as a quick aside, say the first word that comes to mind when you hear "Jon Heyman." Was it "connected"? Of course it was. That's why we all pay attention to him. It's abundantly clear that he's got levels of access the rest of us can only dream of, with a smartphone full of GM's home numbers and an endless flood of agent and FO types lining up to give him tips. So why the hell is he guessing at the motives of the Red Sox here? This is the team that spent the entire fall dealing with leaked tales of beer-swilling pitchers and tuned-out managers. Surely there's at least one disgruntled or fame-seeking low-level exec inside the Sox organization willing to say "Yeah, ever since Mr. Henry bought LFC, the Sox have been playing second fiddle."

Without any such quotes, Heyman just tells us that Henry spent $179 million this year on Liverpool. He leaves out entirely the very different player-transfer system, the fact that Premier League salaries are actually higher on average than MLB salaries, or really any context at all, even whether the money spent by Henry is a one-year expense. Basically, we're all supposed to go "Wow, $179 million! That's an astounding amount of money! And he's only letting Ben Cherington spend $3 million on Cody Ross? I am angry at John Henry!" He's counting on us to forget that the Sox payroll will still be the second-highest in MLB. He's counting on us to forget that just last year, months after buying Liverpool in the first place, Henry committed $300 million to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Basically, he's counting on us to shut down our critical-thinking faculties and accept his word without question, because he's got Scott Boras on speed-dial.

I know I'm about to get torn to shreds in the comment thread because I'm way too bullish on the Sox, because I think this year's team will be right in it from start to finish and even ought to get deep into October. You've looked at the Sox, and you've seen critical flaws where I've seen acceptable weaknesses. You want a vigorous debate over whether the 2012 Red Sox will be a serious contender. A real discussion of whether the Sox should be cost-conscious after last year's spending spree and the new CBA's luxury tax changes. To register the serious complaint that Boston has gone for quantity over quality in the rotation. And I'm looking forward to it.

Because each and every one of you has put more thought into the two paragraphs you're about to write calling me an optimistic dip than one of the best-connected baseball writers in America put into his last post about the Red Sox. And while that doesn't make me happy about the state of sports journalism, it makes me incredibly happy about the state of sports fandom.

(So many thanks to Cot's Contracts for all salary figures, and Baseball-Reference for pretty much everything else. My, but I do love the internet.)

Daily Links - Friday Day Edition

2012-02-10T12:05:21Z

Garbage garbage garbage.

Link time!

When a new manager is hired, there's always a breaking in period. The players get to know what he likes, what he values, and what he thinks is important just as he gets to know the players, and their strengths and weaknesses. The same is also true of fans. After eight years of Terry Francona at the helm, just seeing Bobby Valentine in the dugout could be a confusing and traumatic thing. Fortunately, Tim Britton, cognizant of all this invented garbage, has undertaken to learn him some Valentine using the virtual pages of The Providence Journal to do so. Specifically, Mr. Britton spoke with Valentine recently and found out something interesting: Valentine doesn't believe in pitch counts. Not like he doesn't believe in [cover your eyes, kids] Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, but Valentine believes that different pitchers have different endurance thresholds. I have to say, that kind of nuance and subtlety is going to go over really well with some of the screamers on talk radio. Of course, there's some intended irony to that statement, as media screamer was actually Valentine's past job.

OTM's own Cee Angi made her debut at The Platoon Advantage yesterday. She wrote about baseball card collecting. As a former card collector, I can remember the emotions of getting a new pack or a new card that you wanted. She does a great job of describing the feelings generated by card collecting, and the senses that are impacted by new cards or old favorites.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto provides some opinions from scouts on the four major remaining free agents, one of whom is Roy Oswalt. The article is behind the paywall, but I don't think I'm giving too much away to say the scout thinks there is a reason Oswalt hasn't signed yet and it isn't because of Oswalt's punctuality and it has nothing what so ever to do with his ability to create origami swans.

Fan Graphs' David Cameron has some interesting thoughts on top prospect ranking.

Troy Patterson at Fire Brand of the AL has the first in what I assume, based on the title, is a multi-part series on Pitch F/x data and You. Well, actually, it's Pitch F/x data and Daniel Bard, but you can imagine yourself as Bard if you like. Wow, you throw fast!

Rich Hill, now re-signed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox, is making progress after Tommy John surgery ruined his 2011. Well, OK, Tommy John surgery didn't ruin his year. Ye Olde Exploding Elbow did.

The Yankees are still trying to dump A.J. Burnett, now on the Pirates. I suppose if the Yankees can get out of paying, to pick a number out at random, $3 million of the $33 million owed Burnett over the next two seasons, then it's worth shipping him elsewhere, but demanding talent in return probably isn't going to help facilitate a deal. If the Yankees are willing to give him away with a cash box strapped to his ankle they may end up out from underneath some small portion of the deal. But, a 35 year old guy with an ERA+ in the 80s over his last two seasons and 375 innings probably isn't worth too much on the market. Probably. You know, unless Jim Bowden snags another GM job in the immediate future.

Finally, this may just be one of the strangest baseball cards ever produced.

Thursday Red Sox Notes: Rich Harden, Oil Can Boyd, And More Keith Law

2012-02-09T20:00:34Z

Early this morning, Peter Gammons reported via Twitter that Rich Harden was taking the 2012 season off to attempt a comeback in 2013. Harden underwent surgery last week to repair a torn shoulder capsule that he has pitched with for years. That's not a minor injury, and surgery is no guarantee of a return -- ask Mark Prior about shoulder capsules some time -- but given the way Harden has bounced back-and-forth from the active roster to the disabled list over the years, it was time to give the procedure a shot.

This also sheds light on just what it was the Red Sox were scared off by, when the almost-but-not-quite trade for Harden fell apart on the eve of last year's July 31 trade deadline. Knowing Harden is injury-prone is one thing -- the Red Sox did trade for Erik Bedard hours later, after all -- but knowing he is injury-prone because he has a torn shoulder capsule is something else entirely.

The risk of Harden not being around to finish out the season was high, and Boston was desperate for starting pitching help, but not that desperate. Considering Harden gave up 1.9 homers per nine innings and posted a 5.57 ERA over his final 10 starts of 2011 -- this despite pitching in one of the pitcher-friendliest stadiums in the game -- being healthy enough to stay off of the DL wasn't exactly a winning situation either.

While the Red Sox never seemed to be in on Harden -- likely due to those medical records they saw last July -- they absolutely will not be getting him now, and neither will anyone else. Harden has always had loads of talent, so here's hoping that this surgery is what he needed to get his career back on track.

Former Red Sox right-hander Dennis "Oil Can" Boyd admitted that he used to have a bit of a thing for cocaine back in the 80s. According to Boyd, two-thirds of the time he took the mound, he did so while on coke.

"Some of the best games I've ever, ever pitched in the major leagues I stayed up all night; I'd say two-thirds of them," said Boyd, who spent eight of his 10 major league seasons with the Red Sox. "If I had went to bed, I would have won 150 ballgames in the time span that I played. I feel like my career was cut short for a lot of reasons, but I wasn't doing anything that hundreds of ball players weren't doing at the time; because that's how I learned it."

Boyd finished his 10-year career with a 102 ERA+, his very best seasons coming in 1985, 1986, and in 1990 with Montreal. He lost the one World Series game he pitched in 1986, (following a solid ALCS against the Angels) going seven innings while allowing six earned runs to the Mets. It's hard to say how his career would have gone without cocaine, but Boyd feels he cut his own playing time short with all of the long nights.

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Keith Law released his farm rankings yesterday, placing the Red Sox 18 of 30, and today unveiled his top 100 prospects. You'll have to read the ESPN Insider article on your own, but know that just two of the top 100 are Red Sox prospects. Maybe not the two you would expect either, as it's just Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart who make it in.

Snippets from Bogaert's and Swihart's profiles:

Bogaerts held his own due to excellent bat speed and enough pitch recognition to keep himself afloat... Bogaerts is the Red Sox's best chance right now to produce an All-Star.

Swihart is raw on both sides of the ball... Given time and regular reps behind the plate, he could be similar to Matt Wieters, a switch-hitting catcher (perhaps with less power) who can add value through catching and throwing.

You already know his thoughts on the system as a whole, including who he likes to breakout and give Boston an even better farm, but as of now, potential impact guys just aren't there in his mind.

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Speaking of farm systems, the Orioles won't be able to go to South Korea to improve their own anymore. Thanks to the signing of a 17-year-old pitcher, their scouts are now banned from attending games in the country:

The Korea Baseball Association (KBA) announced Thursday it has informed the MLB commissioner's office and the Orioles of its decision, saying scouts from all major league teams in the future signing Korean student athletes not in the final years of their schools will be banned from KBA-sanctioned games. That will include all national high school and university tournaments, often frequented by major league scouts.

The Orioles were finally ahead of the curve on something, but that something turned out to be getting yourself kicked out of a country. This is a team that can't woo free agents and needs all the help from scouting, drafting, and international signings that it can get, and now it has to cross one country's talented youngsters off of the list.