Over the Monster

Clay Buchholz's Last Start, And Things To Watch For

2012-05-16T14:30:08Z

Things went a bit differently for Clay Buchholz's last start. This was a pitcher who had given up at least five runs in every outing to that point, was leading the league in runs allowed, had already surpassed his 2010 total for homers allowed, and had just one more strikeout than walk. He had been an absolute disaster, but against the Indians, he was able to hold his own long enough to escape with a win he actually deserved.

Well, sort of. Buchholz pitched effectively, in the sense he kept runs off of the board. But the why behind that success is something that is a bit elusive. He struck out zero hitters, and walked three. He had more ground outs than air outs (10 to five) but overall saw an even distribution of batted balls, with 13 grounders and 13 fly balls. None of those fly balls landed in the seats, though, and he was able to scatter the eight hits he allowed in a way that held the Indians to three earned runs.

It was an improvement over what came before, but that's not the Buchholz we've seen him as before. Still, there were some encouraging signs to take from the outing, ones we hope to see again Wednesday night against the Rays, albeit with additional improvement.

Buchholz traditionally starts the year out much slower than he ends it in terms of velocity. In late April of 2011, Red Sox Beacon ran a story discussing this very problem, and it included a chart from former Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x guru (and current Houston Astros employee) Mike Fast detailing the rise in his velocity throughout the years:

This data was adjusted to compensate for the differences in various PITCHf/x systems in different parks, so this is a normalized and accurate look at how hard Buchholz actually threw throughout the year. At the end of 2010, he was regularly around 95 mph, but at the start of 2011, well, it looked a lot like the start of 2012.

It would be nice to know what it was that Bobby Valentine said to Clay Buchholz during his irritated-looking visit in the first inning of that tilt against the Indians, as from about that time forward, Buchholz not only started to pitch more effectively, but also saw his velocity rise. From Brooks Baseball's game logs:

In the last third of his outing, his velocity tailed off a bit again (as velocity tends to do the more pitches one throws), but there is a clear spike (as well as the use of other offerings besides his fastballs) that begins after 16 pitches or so. By the middle of the game, his fastball had topped out over 94 miles per hour, when the first set of them in the first inning all sat closer to 92. It's not a massive shift, but you can see above that it's there.

Buchholz needs that kind of extra life on his fastball in order to get the movement and subsequent grounders that it's meant to induce. While he's still been able to induce grounders even with his struggles, he's left too many pitches up -- more than usual -- and hasn't broken the 50 percent grounder barrier yet, as he has in every season besides 2008. He would be able to put up with the homers, as he did in 2011, were he still able to miss bats with his stuff.

The lack of change-up command he's displayed to this point makes things difficult. In 2010 and 2011, the change was by far his most-effective swing-and-miss offering, as it was roughly two standard deviations above the average for inducing whiffs. None of his other pitches were even remotely useful in that regard, as their primary function was to force the hitter into weak contact thanks to the late -- and very significant -- movement on them.

This year, the change-up is inducing more swings-and-misses than any other offering besides his curve, except he's thrown the bender nearly 100 times more. In addition to that, he's only throwing the change-up for a strike 54 percent of the time -- the pitch still has its movement, but he can't locate it to make it do what it's capable of. Instead of forcing the issue, Buchholz has used his curve, an inferior pitch, far more often.

He's also struggled with his cutter, as it has gone from a pitch that was well above-average at forcing grounders into one that is just an average cutter. It's also being fouled off at an alarming rate, suggesting Buchholz isn't getting the kind of fooling movement on it that he has in other years. As the cutter is the pitch he's thrown the second-most, that's problematic, and one of the reasons he's had trouble putting hitters away. While much of the Red Sox staff has settled down in two-strike counts, Buchholz is still nearly 200 percent worse than average in those counts.

That's a long list of things that need tending to. His velocity looks like it began to climb, but whether it was a one-start thing, a hot gun at Fenway, or the beginning of his being able to throw like he's able, we'll know a little more about after tonight. He has no command of his change-up, but when he's able to put it where he wants it, it remains effective. His cutter has been his downfall rather than the key pitch it's been in the past, and his reliance on his curve has helped keep him afloat in 2012, but is possibly a long-term issue given he has better pitches in his arsenal -- when they work, anyway.

Essentially, we've only seen half of Buchholz this year. His lack of command has driven his walk rates up, and also kept him from punching out the opposition. He needs to reverse that trend while keeping the ball on the ground to stay as productive as the 2009-2011 seasons suggest he should be, when he had a 142 ERA+ and grounder tendencies that made his 1.9 K/BB acceptable rather than problematic. While he's talented, his particular style of pitching is something of a tight-rope act at times, and right now, he's slipped and looks like he's about to fall. Whether he can pull himself back up is something we'll just have to watch for.

One Plate Appearance: David Ortiz

2012-05-16T13:01:03Z

I was watching the Red Sox game last night and thought, wouldn't it be interesting to look at one single at-bat in depth. To show the intricacies of the encounter and not just the result, but how the result was achieved. Today, I'm going to look at David Ortiz's third inning at-bat against Mariners pitcher Blake Bleavan.

* * *

It was the bottom of the third inning in a 0-0 game. David Ortiz stepped to the plate against Seattle starter Blake Beavan. There was one out and nobody on base. To that point, Beavan had had a little bit of trouble with the Red Sox. He had given up a single to Dustin Pedroia and walked Adrian Gonzalez in the first before getting Will Middlebrooks to ground out to end the inning. In the second inning he gave up a lead-off single to Jarrod Saltalamacchia and hit Daniel Nava with a pitch, but got out of that as well. He was laboring a bit, as his pitch count was at 57 when Ortiz stepped into the batter's box.

As far as I can tell (I can't find my copy of the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers at the moment to be certain) Beavan throws four pitches:

A low-90's fastball
A low-80's change up
A slider
A mid-70's curve ball

Those were the pitches Ortiz had to be aware of when he stepped to the plate. So far this year Ortiz has shown a reverse platoon split, though as you'll see, it's not really a problem. Ortiz has hit lefties at a .380/.415/.740 clip (that's an OPS of 1.155) while he's fared slightly worse against right-handers, hitting them at .337/.417/.573 (.990 OPS).

One problem Beavan was about to have with Ortiz or really any patient left handed hitter is that half his repertoire is designed to get right-handed hitters out. The slider and curve both cut away from right-handed hitters, but in to lefties like Ortiz. That gives him a much better vantage point from which to track the flight of the ball. As we shall see.

Pitch 1: Change Up; Called strike; 80mph

The ball is in the catcher's glove. It was a change up, away from Ortiz and probably a bit farther away and a bit higher in the zone than Beavan wanted. He got the call anyway, putting Ortiz down in the count 0-1 to start the at-bat. Ortiz disagreed with the call and Pitch f/x agrees, saying it was just a hair outside. Ortiz waited until a few moments after he'd initially stepped out and spoke with someone over his left shoulder, presumably the umpire about the call.

So Ortiz takes the change up for a strike to start the at-bat.

Pitch 2: Change Up: low and away; 82 m.p.h.

Surprise, Beavan goes back to the change up. Often pitchers stay away from throwing change ups on consecutive pitches. The idea is that it's a change of pace pitch and what makes it successful is the difference between what the batter has just seen (or is expecting in this case) and what the pitch is. But Beavan bucks convention and throws Ortiz two in a row.

As you can see, this one was also outside, but a bit further outside than the first and considerably lower. Ortiz, ever the patient hitter, takes this as well, evening the count.

Pitch 3: Fastball; 91 m.p.h.

Here's the pitch Ortiz has waited the entire at-bat (life?) for. A fastball. Here you can see Ortiz's leg lift (his load) before Beavan even has released the ball:

The ball is still in Beavan's hand at this point. If you look closely, you can almost see a speck of drool forming on Ortiz's lower lip.

The pitch is over the inside part of the plate and Ortiz crushes it. You can see the fat part of the bat just about to redirect the ball's momentum in the above picture. The problem was...

... the ball landed just foul down the right field line. You can see the dark part of the dirt that the ball has just kicked up. Before the at-bat ends, Beavan is going to wish that it had been fair.

After two change ups, Beavan tried to throw a fastball past Ortiz. He succeeded in one sense. The ball was foul and thus a strike. Beavan was now up in the count 1-2. But, his plan of slowing down Ortiz's bat with two change ups so he could throw one by Ortiz failed miserably. So we need a Plan B. What now?

Pitch 4: Fastball; 92 m.p.h. Ortiz checks his swing

It's another fastball, this one up and out of the zone. Beavan hit the catcher's mitt almost perfectly. This was probably the best pitch Beavan threw in this sequence. Ortiz was tempted to go after it, but changed his mind and held up. The picture makes it look like he might have gone around but he didn't. That's as far as he went and the angle of the bat shows that he didn't swing. What's more, neither Beaven nor the catcher, John Jaso, made any indication that he did. The ball is in the catcher's mitt, by the way.

So now Beavan has thrown Ortiz two consecutive change ups followed by two consecutive fastballs. The count is 2-2. Ortiz has blunted each of Beavan's pitches. Now it's probably about time for Beavan to try something new, something Ortiz hasn't seen yet in this at-bat. Maybe the element of surprise will get Ortiz out.

Pitch 5: Curveball low and in the dirt at Ortiz's back foot; 76 m.p.h.

This is where I wish my Photoshop hadn't crapped out on me because a GIF would show this oh-so-much better. It's a curveball that Beavan tries to backdoor Ortiz with. The catcher sets up at the outside low corner of the strikezone hoping Ortiz will give up on the pitch, a pitch type he hasn't yet seen during this at-bat, and they can sneak it across the outside corner at the knees.

As you can see, Beavan misses his spot. it's not a bad location as it's possible a worse hitter than Ortiz would have swung over the pitch, but Ortiz is not a worse hitter than Ortiz. He's Ortiz. So he doesn't. Ball three. Full count.

To this point Beavan has done the following:

Change Up at the top corner of the zone. 0-1
Change Up low and away. 1-1
Fastball inside. Fouled down the line. 1-2
Fastball up and away. 2-2
Curveball low and in the dirt 3-2

What to do now? Remember, it's the third inning of a 0-0 game. There's one out and Adrian Gonzalez is standing in the on-deck circle. Walking Ortiz wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but you probably want to put one somewhere in the strike zone and induce weak contact while giving him the chance to swing through it. The pitch that is easiest to do that with for most pitchers is the...

Pitch 6: Fastball, 93 m.p.h.

Beavan reaches back a bit on this one, muscling up to get an extra 1 1/2 mile-per-hour on the pitch. Maybe the extra speed will be just enough to throw off Ortiz after the 76 m.p.h. curve he just looked at.

It wasn't.

Jerry Remy described the pitch as "right down Broadway" but it wasn't quite. It was on the inner third of the plate, but as you can easily see it's just below the belt. It's exactly the pitch Ortiz just missed, hitting foul on the 1-1 count. It was also the pitch that Beavan didn't want to throw. Make no mistake about it, this is a mistake pitch, if not in execution than in construction. The catcher, John Jaso, sets up with his glove right out over the heart of the plate. I'm not sure if the idea was to throw it past Ortiz, but Beavan's pitch would have hit the mitt if Ortiz hadn't intervened sending it into the Red Sox bullpen.

You can see though that Beavan did attempt to not only fool Ortiz on a pitch to pitch basis (throwing back-to-back change ups; trying to backdoor a curve) but he changed the speeds that Ortiz was seeing, hoping to get him out on his front foot enough to generate weak contact or a miss. Here are those speeds in graph form (courtesy the excellent Brooks Baseball):

That change of speeds, from 80 m.p.h. to 91, back to 76 and then back up to 92 can be especially tough on a hitter. The next time you're in a batting cage, take two cuts at the plate, then step six feet towards the pitching machine. Chances are that pitch will be past you quickly. Take two from there, then step back to the plate. You'll probably be out ahead of the next one. That's what it's like to face a change of speeds.

For those select few though, like David Ortiz, it doesn't matter, or it doesn't matter unless it's done exactly correctly and then maybe it still doesn't matter.

You can also see here that Beavan tried to keep the ball on the corners and away from the middle of the plate. For the most part he succeeded (despite Remy's statement to the contrary), as you can see here (also from the excellent Brooks Baseball):

This plot is from the catcher's point of view, so David Ortiz, being a lefty, is standing on the right side of the graph.

Ortiz's solo homer was all the Red Sox would need as they shut out the Mariners to win their fifth in a row. If only that ball hadn't landed a quarter inch foul, right Mr. Beavan?

YouTube: The Red Sox Crowded 40-Man Roster

2012-05-16T11:30:08Z

Seven players on the 60-day disabled list in addition to a full 40-man roster means that the Red Sox will soon be in something of a roster crunch. Things are bad enough already in those regards with the 25-man roster, as Mark Melancon, Junichi Tazawa, and Clayton Mortensen sit in Triple-A awaiting a way to return to the big-league club, but the larger 40-man roster has its own set of issues. What are some of the options before the Red Sox, who will need to sort this mess out in the next month or so, once injured players are no longer hurting?

That's the topic of discussion today in Over the Monster's latest YouTube offering. Remember, you can view Over the Monster YouTube videos either here, on the right sidebar of OTM, or at our official YouTube channel. Subscribe if you want them delivered to your inbox in digest form whenever they're available.

Video after the jump.

Red Sox 5, Mariners 0: Quick Reaction

2012-05-15T23:37:38Z

A fan could get used to this.

Another well-played game of baseball has the team on a five-game winning streak and looking like a real team all-of-a-sudden.

It's hard to imagine a game that would have provided a more positive outlook for the team than this one. For the fifth straight game, the Sox lineup provided at least four runs--an encouraging run of consistent production rather than the bunches we've seen in the last year or so. For the fifth straight game, the Sox played encouraging defense, not making much in the way of mistakes and adding a few impressive plays (Mike Aviles, I'm looking at you).

And, most importantly, for the first time ever, the Sox have gone once through the rotation without a bad start.

Sure, Buchholz and Bard struggled peripherally, and the former had his start messed up by a slow hook, but Doubront and Lester were both in good form, and Beckett today...

Oh, if this wasn't exactly what he needed.

After a week of overblown stories of golfing and dramatic denunciations from every which direction, Josh Beckett came out today and made a statement. Perfect through three, dominant through seven, allowing no runs and just six baserunners in his outing, striking out nine batters along the way with an exceptional curveball doing a lot of the damage. It was 2007 again, if with a little less gas.

Add that to another strong (if brief) bullpen performance, David Ortiz getting a homer and a bunt hit in the same game, and the excellent pregame ceremonies for Tim Wakefield, and you have perhaps the most enjoyable dayof baseball the Sox have treated us to yet this season. And after the last few games, that actually is saying something.

Red Sox Complete Marlon Byrd Trade, Send Hunter Cervenka To Cubs

2012-05-15T22:15:19Z

Alex Speier reports that pitcher Hunter Cervenka is the player to be named later in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Chicago Cubs.

Cervenka is 22 years old, and was in his second stint with Single-A Greenville. You might remember his name, as it was in the news recently, as part of the three-man no-hitter thrown by the Drive a week ago. Not to pick on Cervenka, but the leadoff walk he issued in the eighth inning broke up the attempt at a perfect game.

More importantly, Cervenka had an 8.04 ERA in 15-2/3 innings pitched with Greenville, after posting a 10.80 ERA at the level in 20 innings in 2011. He's always had an issue with walks, issuing 7.2 per nine for his career (173 innings since 2009, if you count Rookie League).

This season, he's shown strikeout stuff -- more than he has in the past, as his career rate is 8.6 per nine -- whiffing nearly 14 batters per nine innings, but at the same time walking almost seven per nine. Sox Prospects' bio is, as usual, detailed about Cervenka's potential upside, but mostly the various problems with his body and repertoire.

Bottom line? He's got some interesting traits, but he's a project. As of now, he's the Cubs' project:

Projectable lefty from Texas. Throws from a 3/4 arm slot. Slow and deliberate delivery from both the wind-up and the stretch. Fastball sits 90-92 mph and can top out at 94 mph in short bursts. Tends to be on the straight side. Also throws a cut fastball, along with a curveball and a changeup. Cutter is his best pitch, operating in the mid-80s with late break. Can leave it in the middle of the plate in stretches. 76-79 mph curveball shows tight, deep break at times, but is inconsistent with producing hard snap. Typically wraps his hand around the ball. Low-80s changeup is a below-average pitch that often floats to the plate, with little deception. Struggles with keeping his control and command consistent due to wavering release point. Body has also lost athleticism and shape with age. Needs considerable improvement to be effective in full-season baseball.

Game 36

2012-05-15T19:59:39Z

Hey everybody, it's Tim Wakefield day! Woo!

Hey everybody, Tim Wakefield won't be pitching today! Woo/boo depending on your personal preferences!

We don't judge.

Josh Beckett

#19 / Pitcher / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 15, 1980

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2012 - Josh Beckett	2-4	6	6	0	0	0	0	34.2	37	23	23	9	11	26	5.97	1.38

Blake Beavan

#49 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-7

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 17, 1989

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2012 - Blake Beavan	1-3	6	6	0	0	0	0	33.1	37	16	16	5	4	14	4.32	1.23

Lineup

BOSTON RED SOX	SEATTLE MARINERS
Ryan Sweeney, CF	Dustin Ackley, 2B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B	John Jaso, C
David Ortiz, DH	Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B	Jesus Montero, DH
Will Middlebrooks, 3B	Kyle Seager, 3B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C	Justin Smoak, 1B
Cody Ross, RF	Mike Carp, LF
Daniel Nava, LF	Michael Saunders, CF
Mike Aviles, SS	Munenori Kawasaki, SS

Go Sox!

OTM at the Movies: Knuckleball!

2012-05-15T19:00:15Z

Think for a moment about the greatest pitches you've ever seen. Randy Johnson's slider. Pedro Martinez's changeup. Mariano Rivera's cutter. What do they have in common, beyond their ability to make major-league hitters look like fools? Control and repeatability. The key to any pitcher's success is not only the ability to throw a great pitch, but to do so every time, bending the baseball to his will and making it go exactly where he wants it to. Andrew Miller comes swiftly to mind as an easy example of the guy who can make a baseball do terrible things to a hitter's timing, but can't figure out how to do so all the time. Maintaining control is everything.

Yet for a very small group of pitchers, their success comes from their ability to sacrifice their control over the baseball, to let the wind take the pitch and do what it wants. When throwing a knuckleball, the last thing one wants is to impart any control to the ball. The entire point is to keep the ball from spinning, and let its trajectory go wherever the air currents take it. It's a harrowing way to make a living, and the men who throw a knuckler are always a few unfriendly gusts from getting released.

The lives of two of those men form the core of the new documentary Knuckleball!, which I was lucky enough to see at the Boston Independent Film Festival several weeks ago. With the Red Sox celebrating Tim Wakefield Day at Fenway, it seemed the time to put up a review.

Rather than simply provide a dry history of the knuckleball itself, Knuckleball! takes a look at the two most recent practitioners of the art, Wakefield and the Mets' R.A. Dickey, and the journeys that brought them to the knuckler. Full career retrospectives on both are interspersed with moments from the 2011 season, in which Dickey adjusted to his status as a top starter for New York and Wakefield pursued his 200th win.

We all have a pretty solid idea of Wake's bio, having followed him for so long. Drafted by Pittsburgh as a power-hitting corner infielder, Wakefield floundered in the minors. Facing outright release, he was saved by a coach who'd seen him toying around with a knuckler in practice, and thought it might be worth cultivating. In 1992, he got called up to the bigs, and went 8-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 13 starts, and threw two complete game wins in the NLCS against Atlanta. (Fun note: Tim Wakefield is the last man to win a postseason game for the Pirates) The next year, he was given the top spot in the rotation, and fell apart, eventually getting released and picked up by Boston. The rest, of course, you know.

Dickey's story is quite similar. He was drafted out of college as a pitcher in the traditional fireballer mode, but injuries plagued him throughout the minors and his early work in the majors. He'd always practiced a knuckleball on the side, and finally decided to use it as his primary offering. Since joining the Mets as a full-time knuckleballing starter in 2010, he's put up a 119 ERA+, and been one of the few bright spots for New York over the last few years.

The film's full of great little side anecdotes and player testimonials about the knuckler and the vagaries of its path. A personal favorite was a rather softened-looking Doug Mirabelli pointing to the white hairs above his temple and saying "See these? These are Wakie's." As a history nerd, I'd have enjoyed a bit more on the story of the knuckleball going back to its origins. There's a great deal of material on the Niekro brothers and knuckleballers of the last half-century, but never anything on why someone first started throwing it back in the early days of baseball. The film is also a bit light on the physics of the pitch, beyond a basic description of its lack of spin. This doesn't hurt the movie too much, though, since a great deal of its appeal lies in the characterization of the knuckleball as basically magic.

The knuckleball-as-magic angle is perhaps the most fascinating part of the film. Watching Dickey and Wakefield talk about their path toward knucklerhood, and their interactions with the men who threw the pitch before them, one can't help but think of them as keepers of an ancient secret. The list of knuckleball pitchers is incredibly short, and they're all connected to each other, trading tips, giving advice, and providing reassurance. When Charlie Hough reviews video with R.A. Dickey, or Tim Wakefield swaps stories with Phil Niekro, you're seeing camaraderie in action, the bond of giving your life over to a pitch that could abandon you at any time.

The film ends with Wakefield's retirement, and the reality of Dickey as the last remaining knuckleballer. It's possible, given the difficulties of the pitch, and its inherent unpredictability, he's the last we'll ever see. No one's going out of their way to draft knuckleballers, and so far as I know there aren't any serious practitioners in the minors at present. But then nobody starts out as a knuckleballer. They just sort of find their way into it. With any luck, there's a young pitcher or infielder looking for a chance who sees this film, and starts down the road toward the riskiest pitch in baseball. The game just wouldn't be the same without it.

Kevin Youkilis To Begin Rehab Assignment

2012-05-15T18:26:57Z

Per Buster Olney and his baseball sources, Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis will begin his rehab assignment sometime over the next two days.

Update: WEEI's Alex Speier says Youkilis will take three at bats with the Pawtucket Red Sox on Wednesday.

Youkilis has been on the disabled list with a back injury since April 29, making yesterday the first day he was eligible to return. Still, the team has taken it slow, and it seems now that he will be unlikely to make his return to the active roster before the end of the week.

It's not known how long Youkilis will stay in the minors before making his way back to the major league squad, but since his return will force the Sox into making a decision about their hot-hitting replacement in Will Middlebrooks, they may feel safe in taking their time. When Youkilis eventually does return, it seems likely that Middlebrooks will be on the way down, given Bobby Valentine's comments on the pointlessness of keeping a prospect around to ride the pine.