Podium Cafe

Preview: Volta Ciclista a Catalunya

2010-03-21T16:54:28Z

Stage Race Musical Chairs!

Way back when a few of us weren't even born yet, this Third Oldest Stage Race In The World (started in 1911) was held in June, making it a major Tour prep race. But then it moved to mid-May which proved to be not such a great move because the race promptly lost most of the A-list talent: Italians stayed true to the Giro, while Tour hopefuls were not ready to get into top form. So it became a B-list stage race with some decent sprinters sprinkled in. But this year it moved again to now, late-March and by the looks of things the talent level has gone back up. We'll get to that in a minute but first...

Was this calendar slot just lying there open, hoping for a Spanish stage race to come along? No! Last year this week was reserved for the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, a 2.1 stage race (Catalunya is a PT race). So where is C y L now? The second week in April, natch, one week after Pais Vasco which keeps it's first week in April slot. So has any Spanish stage race moved back into Catalunya's old mid-May spot? Sure! The Tour of California! Wait, that's American. Ah but that name California: is it Spanish? Maybe. There are several possibilities as to where the word California came from. Mr. George Stewart says that the word California is the fifth oldest surviving European place name; only the names Florida, Cape Canaveral, Dry Tortugas, and Appalachian are older. But unlike those names it's unclear weather California is an indigenous name (kali forno means high mountains) or an older Castilian name, possibly derived from Latin, or even something that floated in from South Asia. But for the purposes of this essay let's call it Catalan in origin. In Catalan, cal means hot and forn means oven. So since the word was first applied to the southern part of California, the Baja part, it meant the land was Hot As An Oven. I don;'t know about you, but when I read the phrase, hot as an oven, I immediately think of Love Shack, the B--52's hit. And when I think of Love Shack I think of the Gav Shack which-get this!-Is In California!. Wow! See: all things come back to the Podium Cafe.

Okay, who's racing?

GC guys. Lots of 'em. Really this race has more serious GC stage race contenders than any race so far and about as many as any race this year. Since it's a Pro Tour race you have almost every team trotting out at least some of their main stage racers if not all of them. Let's look at some of the names and drool:

Cervelo: Sastre, Deignan, and Tondo

Caisse: Lulu, Arroyo, and Gutierrez

Liquigas: Basso and Kreuziger

Garmin: Vandevelde and Zabriskie

Rabobank: Menchov

Sky: Wiggins

Lotto: Moreno

Katusha: J-Rod, Karpets, and Kolobnev

Radio shack: Leipheimer, Kloden, and Brajkovic

Xacobeo: Mosquera

Cofidis: Taaramae

Saxo Bank: both Schlecks, Jens!, both Sorensens, even both Haedos

HTC- Martin

AG2R: Valjavec, Dessel, and both Efimkins

FDJ: Casar and Le Mevel

You get the idea. Not everyone is here. No Bert or Lance or Cadel or Samu or Lofkvist, or even the BCS. Other Italian big names are at Coppi and Bartali where they reunite with Ricco, Rasmussen and SELLA!. But most of the Big Boys are here i n Catalunya.

Sprinters? Not so much. There's Cav. And the Haedos, Stauff, Guarnieri, Furlan, Cardoso... face it though: when you start looking for sprinters in Footon's roster then you are reaching. No, this race is about the GC guys.

So who is gonna win?

Funny you asked that. You see all those names above but obvious some of those guys are not in game shape. I don't even think Carlos Sastre has raced this year. And Andy Schleck? Or Arroyo? These guys and several others are just along for the training miles. Who I think will seriously compete will be the guys, mainly from Paris-Nice, who are in close to top form: Lulu, Tondo, Taaramae, Kreuziger, Wiggins, and Menchov. Maybe Kloden. Probably a few who I haven't named might surprise (Leipheimer?)

So how will the stages separate out the contenders from the trainers?

Not easily, that;s for sure. Here's the weird thing about this race and it's caused me no little effort to get excited about it: it's just my opinion but the course is pretty bland. Partly that's because it's March and they can't use the kali forno/high mountains but the mountains they do use mostly come way before the end of most stages. Hopefully the riders will prove me wrong but I think there could be a way to throw a few tricks into the course without making it too hard.

Stage one is a 3.6 km ITT. The winner will take barely a second out of the 2nd place guy-if that.

Stage two is a kind hilly stage that should end in a bunch sprint. Cavendish should be all over this one.

Stage three is billed as the big mountain stage with a HC climb quickly followed by a cat 2. Problem is that Cat 2 peaks 55 km away from the finish. Possibly a breakaway will cause a shakeup in the GC if most of the riders aren't riding hard.

Stage four is tricky. A mostly downhill stage until a finishing circuit that contains a cat 2 climb. A rider who was in a successful break the day before might get dropped on that closing hill that the riders climb twice. Still that climb is 20 km from the finish.

Stage five: A bumpy stage with two cat 3;s and two cat 2's, the last being about 13 km from the finish. It looks like there's a slight uphill tick to the finish also. Maybe something will happen here. Maybe not.

Stage six into Barcelona has a short cat 3 hill on the closing circuit that the riders climb three times just to make it hard on the sprinters.

Stage seven: flat and short (117 km).

So there. I find the course kinda disappointing, especially compared to Paris-Nice. But probably the teams are happy as it won't tax their riders too much before the bigger Pais Vasco.

One final thing...

Did I say the race starts tomorrow? No? Oops! It ends next Sunday.

Ronde van het Groene Hart .......LIVE

2010-03-21T09:39:35Z

In the name of Dutch Hegemony I hereby declare this Livethread on the Eneco Ronde van het Groene Hart open.

This 207 km race of the Groene Hart region is littered with smallish climbs but history suggest it's one for the sprinters in the end. I'm counting on our dutch contingent to give a more detailed insight into this popular (VDS!) race.

Live video from 15:00 CET (10:00 AM US eastern, 01:00 AEDT)

Videolinks from Racesite and MyP2P

Official site and Startlist

Live ticker (in Dutch)

Milano-Sanremo: POST STAGE Thread

2010-03-20T16:11:58Z

Oscarito strikes again!

Oscar Freire, Rabobank
Tom Boonen, Quick Step
Alessandro Petacchi, Lampre
Sacha Modolo, Colnago
Daniele Bennati, Liquigas
Thor Hushovd, Cervelo
Francesco Ginnani, Androni
Max Iglinsky, Astana
Philippe Gilbert, Omega Pharma
Luca Paolini, A&S

Milano-Sanremo: LIVE FOURTH THREAD

2010-03-20T15:38:56Z

Poggio Poggio Poggio... and to the line!

Milano-Sanremo LIVE!!! Third Thread

2010-03-20T15:02:32Z

Next climb: the Capo di Tutti Capi. Oh, wait, this is northern Italy. Carry on!

Milan-Sanremo Second LIVE Thread

2010-03-20T14:01:09Z

Now with video!

Video links from Universal Sports (US) , Steephill or cyclingfans

Official site, Profile and Startlist

La Primavera: Milano-Sanremo..... LIVE

2010-03-20T09:00:28Z

It's Monument time again. In the most democratic of all the monuments the sprinters will try and neutralize the attackers in the race that is truly open for all types of riders.

info on when the live video is available is unclear. It might be as early as 14:00 but more likely it starts at 15:00 CET.

Live video possible from 14:00 CET (09:00 AM US eastern, 00:00 AEDT)

Videolinks from Universal Sports (US) , Steephill or cyclingfans

Official site, Profile and Startlist

Yeehoo’s Book Report, or Laurent Fignon goes to Milan-San Remo

2010-03-19T23:59:28Z

Not so long ago I read Laurent Fignon’s autobiography (“Nous Etions Jeunes et Insouciants” - we were young and carefree), and i really enjoyed his story of his first victory at MSR, so i thought i’d make an attempt at sharing that with you (75 words yet?, yes - yay!). So just to give credit where credit's due, all the info here came from the book.

Fignon had an incredible start to his professional career, winning the ’83 Tour de France just a couple of years after turning pro. And to hear him describe it, it was easy and almost without effort! But i thought you were supposed to suffer in cycling and it was always incredibly difficult and and and ... No, it was easy. Easy i tell you. And mind you, this before the days of EPO. He won the Tdf again in ’84 along with a 2nd place and mountains jersey in the Giro. And second place only because the organizers cut the Stelvio out of the race at the last minute - ostensibly due to avalanche hazard, but this handed the win to the Italian Moser. Ha, take that, friggin foreigners!

more, much more, below the jump thingy (and if ya get bored and wanna get straight to msr, it's down there somewhere)

So what’s your point yeehoo?? What’s this got to do with MSR? The point is, dude, that Fignon got his career off to this incredible start and then suffered an ankle injury - i mean really just a stupid ankle injury! Well but then he had to have surgery and then he was off the bike for a long time and well, he just had a hell of a time ever getting his mojo back. He couldn’t get in form, it wasn’t fun anymore, he couldn’t get that whole jeune et insouciant thing going again, and then one season he was even brought down for months when he finally discovered he had big ol’ stinking like 60 cm long tapeworm in his stomach. L’ouch! Etc, etc. beaucoup du problèms.

Then one bright and sunny day along about the end of 1987, his trainer, Alain Gallopin, said to him, “Laurent, dude, you could win this Milan San Remo thing.” Laurent thought he was nuts of course, he was all like, “Dude, from the start of my career, i’ve always thought i had a shot at winning La Fleche (which, ahem, by this time, i already have, thank you very much), Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but never ever never ever have i thought i could win down there on the Riviera.” (wow, that sorta rhymes! ya listenin seahorse? - i’m writin poultry here - who’d a thunk it?)

But Gallopin, who’d come to know Laurent’s strengths and faults perfectly, foresaw everything and just wouldn’t give up on the idea. He saw that Fignon needed lots of kilometers before his “physique” could really express itself (“pour que mon physique puisse s’exprimer vraiment”). MSR with its almost 300 kms, plus the need for an extra punch at the end on the Poggio - well Gallopin kept repeating “C’est pour toi, crois moi.” (It’s for you, believe me. - see, french is easy - and fun)

So anyhow, Fignon had just had about enough of this not being able to come back and find his old form and stuff, so, just after Paris-Nice he and Gallopin decided to try out a radical new training plan. Overcompensation. Simply put, it consisted of exhausting yourself 72 hours before a big race. The idea is that the body burns all it’s reserves during the over-hard training session, then it’ll overreact to produce what it needs again - you know all those physioligical chemical things that your body needs to win races.

So he had only 6 days between Paris-Nice and Milan San Remo. So he did some easy rolling for a couple of days and then on Wednesday, he rode 120 kms over to Gallopin’s place. Had some orange juice and a piece of flan. Then went back out for another 100km. Gallopin in the Derny, Fignon behind. Faster and faster, drooling speed, then the last 35 km, absolutely at his limits and finished with a fabulous sprint - didn’t even feel his legs.

“Le plaisir était là. Revenu. Quelque chose se passait dans ma tête...” - The pleasure was there. Returned. Something happened in my head...

So, everyone wake up, we’re almost to MSR!! So Fignon goes to Milan and by chance is the first one to sign in - “Because i’m going to win” he tosses out to the organizers. Ah, he was starting to feel loose and relaxed again - like in the good old days.

So the key to winning is patience and punch. You can only attack once, on the Poggio. “Un seul coup: le bon ou le mauvais, telle est la règle de Milan-San Remo.” - One shot, good or bad, that’s the way of the Milan-San Remo.

So, as planned, he stayed at the back of the peloton. He hated it, it was totally against his nature. He couldn’t stand not knowing what was going on at the front. About two-thirds of the way through the race though, he thought to himself, “Mince, je me balade...” - Man, i’m just cruising. “It was fabulous and I’m obliged to say that, except on the Poggio, my legs never hurt once all day. That hadn’t happened to me in a really long time...” “Dans le Turchino, je fumais le pipe. (ha!) Dans le Capo Berta, là ou l’on peut tout perdre aussi, je montais comme dans un rêve. Tellement que, à un moment, j’ai pensé très fort: ‘Je vais gagner.’ ” - translation: “On the Turchino, i smoked the pipe. On the Capo Berta, there where you can also lose everything, i climbed like a dream. Such that, at one moment, i thought very strongly: ‘I’m going to win.’ “

The dutch team PDM, had what it took to put fear into opponents.: Van der Poel, Alcala, Rooks, Theunisse. The four of them were there at the front of the peloton, at their posts. At the foot of the Poggio, (now in his words for a good while) “i was placed pretty-well, although not great. During the race, i had said to my friend, Sean Kelly: ‘I’m planning on taking off strong on the Poggio. If i fail, i’ll take you to the sprint.’ Since ’83 or ’84, i had formed an old relationship of trust and understanding with the irishman, a loyal man who never counted his efforts for debts of honor. We liked each other a lot and we stifled all-comers with our common efforts. So, on the first few hundred meters of the Poggio, Kelly came up to where i was and said to me:

‘You have to go, Laurent!’ I hadn’t asked anything of him, but this irishman decidedly showed his honor at all times... I didn’t reflect on it, i just immediately followed him. And fortunately. I had hardly come back to the front of the peloton when PDM engaged. Full force. With bad intent. Kelly had saved the day for me.

"For about 3 kms everyone suffered beaucoup. I waited patiently. Not knowing too well if an opportunity would present itself. Suddenly, i didn’t feel any more pain in my legs: as if i’d had just mounted the bike minutes before. In those kinds of moments, i never lost my nerve. I waited, calmly. The pace was very fast, so much so that, when we came to the place where the profile showed some higher percentage gradients and where i had planned to make my final blow, i started to doubt whether i’d be able to place my attack. The window was very limited, not much more than 150 meters. But when it came to the most delicate part of the Poggio, Theunisse, who was leading the grand train, started to weaken a little, very slightly. It was undoubtedly imperceptible on the television, but it was plenty sufficient for me.

"Again i didn’t reflect on it. I took the gap that was offered me between a stone wall and the dutchman, i stood on the pedals, and put all my weight of all my years of rage and sacrifice. I waited impatiently for this moment and i felt that it had to be a massive attack. Kelly, there on my wheel, made the play and caused the break... I was in the 53x15. I was thus under the persuasion that i was alone but to my surprise there i saw the young Maurizio Fondriest. I asked myself how he managed to get there, this guy. But i had no fear of him, not for a second. ...”

Fignon goes on to say they had the race won when they came to the last kilometer. And that we found that Fondriest would be faster than Fignon later in his career, but at this point he was still young. At 300 meters, Fignon knew himself perfectly and felt almost unbeatable head to head. He launched his sprint from very far and at about 100 meters from the line Fondriest cracked.

One last direct quote translation to finish up:

“My god. It was done... I don’t remember anything. But witnesses have told me that i cried out with joy. A cry that came from down through the ages. A cry almost savage, according to some. Gallopin was right. First of all to convince me. Then to believe. When we know a racer like Moreno Argentin never won this race ... it’s incredible.”

Well i should probably sum up and all, but damn i’m tired. I will say though, that this did seem to get him back on track. His near Giro-Tour double with the 8 second loss to Lemond and his damned aerobars followed the next year. Imagine missing one Giro-Tour double due to race organizers castrating the main climb, and another to a technical innovation. Anyway all the best to Laurent Fignon in his battle with cancer.

Countdown to the Cobbles: MSR Late Edition

2010-03-19T23:42:50Z

Just a few quick hits:

3. The King Is Dead

No repeat for Mark Cavendish appears to be in store. Last year's winner tells the media he simply doesn't have the form to make the finale. The problem? Last time he went deep into the red to stay in contact on the Cipressa, he says, and that last bit of missing form will be the difference this year between staying in the game and falling out. Never say never? I dunno, he has that "never" look right now.

2. Long Live The King!

Add Gert Steegmans to the list of guys touting Tom Boonen for the win. "I never saw him climb so easily," says the recuperating Belgian of his former teammate, who he has trained with a bit lately (can that be right? anyway...). Among those in the chorus of Boonen supporters is one Filippo Pozzato, who refers to his "friend and training partner in Monaco" as the man to win. On the sandbagging merry-go-round, Fabian Cancellara tips Boonen AND Pozzato as the strongest right now. On it goes.

1. The God of Scattered Showers

One rider in the selections fray under more dubious circumstances is Thor Hushovd. Yes, he is being picked by some based on who he normally is -- a sprinter who can handle pretty much anything -- but his run-in to La Primavera seems far less certain than his veteran cohorts. Hushovd was ill twice in January and struggled mightily in Tirreno-Adriatico, only now saying that he felt much better by the week's end. That's great, but if MSR disfavors anything, it's guys who are at all low on their normal fitness. Put Thor down as a serious Paris-Roubaix threat, but my hunch is that he's coming to form just a shade too late for tomorrow.

Rite of Spring: Milano-Sanremo

2010-03-19T17:18:20Z

Tomorrow, it's off to Italy we go for one of the most beautiful races in the world of cycling. The Italian classic departs Milano on the via della Chiesa Rossa and sets off across the plains of Lombardia. The race covers about 100 kilometers of flat terrain, winding its way south to the coast. As the profile shows, this is some kind of flat.

The Passo del Turchino provides the first major obstacle of the day, though as climbs go, the Turchino isn't so difficult. Narrow roads announce the start of the climb, which widens as it climbs through sweeping curves. Near the summit, the pitch steepens, but not enough to cause a selection. A fast descent drops down to the bright light of the Ligurian Coast.

The Passo del Turchino behind them, the riders face a fast, flat stretch of road which runs along the Ligurian Coast and passes through Savona. The course winds its way southwest along the water, before reaching the short, steep Le Mànie climb. La Mànie is narrow and steep, and we can expect some jostling in the field. With over 90 kilometers of racing yet to go, there's no reason for fear. The three Capi, the traditional climbs of the sprinters' classic, follow La Mànie. Mele, Cervo, and Berta: Three's Company, Italian style. The three climbs come close together and are short and steep. Zing go the sprinters' legs.

Not too far to go, now the Real Milano-Sanremo begins. La Cipressa and il Poggio di Sanremo offer the best chances for the would-be breakaway riders. Always a move goes on the Cipressa, while the sprinters' teams try to hold the race together and prevent the climbers throwing their brand of kryptonite into the bunch. A flat, exposed road connects La Cipressa with il Poggio, and often their is at least the hint of a headwind. Few moves survive this perilous crossing. Indeed, Paolo Bettini believed he'd lost the race, when the bunch caught him in sight of il Poggio. Only the urgings of a team-mate led the Cricket to attack again, this time successfully, on the final climb of the day.

Il Poggio di Sanremo is one of cycling's historic spaces. It's short at just 4 kilometers of climbing, but it grows in the telling. Only ten kilometers of racing separate the base of il Poggio from the finish, and if there's going to be a winning move, it will come here. It's a climb as famous for its descent as for its summit, a descent made famous by the crazed antics of riders like Sean Kelly.

The descent turns to flat road and the final 3 kilometers run along the Lungomare Italo Calvino. This is the straight section of road where Fabian Cancellara launched his big escape and where a breakaway will win. Or get nothing. The road turns slightly as the finish approaches. The finish line awaits in the piazzale Carlo Dapporto. Tomorrow, we will see who celebrates victory in the Italian rite of Spring, La Primavera.

Spring has arrived!

Open Thread: Milano-Sanremo

2010-03-19T16:19:34Z

It's Milano-Sanremo Friday! I have a course post on the way. And there's lots of news circulating around the internets. Consider this thread the place for all Milano-Sanremo news.

I'll start with two tidbits:

Lance Armstrong, who rode Milano-Sanremo last year, will not take the start tomorrow. His reason? Acute gastro-intestinal distress. The stomach virus, always the bestest of excuses.

Hennie Kuiper, meanwhile, has picked Lars Boom of Rabobank as tomorrow's winner. Bold call, since Boom will ride La Primavera for the first time tomorrow.

In slightly un-related news - or at least, news unrelated to Milano-Sanremo, Heinrich Haussler will miss the Spring Classics due to his knee injury. Bah knee injuries! Hopefully, Barbie will be back in action before too long!

Got news? Post it up!

The Flying Milkman: Frans Verbeeck

2010-03-17T07:23:33Z

The monument season is upon us in less than a week, so I thought it would be good time to take a stroll down cycling's Memory Lane, cobbled of course, and take a look at the interesting career of a rider who many of you probably haven't heard of but his story is one of interest as well as heartbreak. Even with Milano-San Remo bearing down on us and the talk about who is going to win is heating up, it is still a good time to look at the story of a rider who never could taste sweet victory at a monument.

Many of you probably know Frans Verbeeck for his business ventures before you know about Frans Verbeeck the rider. Upon his retirement in 1977, he started up VERMARC (the VER from his last name and MARC is his son's name) cycling clothes, the producers of the Quick Step uniforms along with a multitude of other current teams and also TVM and ADR when they were around.

This business entity though was not what Frans Verbeeck was famous for first though. In the early to mid 1970's, most people think of Merckx, De Vlaeminck, Godefroot, Leman, Maertens, etc. as the powerhouses but Verbeeck was a force that few people could challenge when he was on form. With over 160 wins in his career, he was one of the best racers of his time but his real claim to fame was his toughness. People today look at a rider like Jens! Voigt and see him as the epitome of the hardman but he still ranks under Mr. Verbeeck in my book.

But even with all of this success, he still had a thorn in his side that plagued him throughout his career: Eddy Merckx.

THE HARDEST FLANDRIAN

At the conclusion of the 6th stage of the Vuelta a Espana, Frans Verbeeck had had enough with the life of a professional cyclist. He was fed up of the "If your not first, your last" mentality of the 1960's cycling world and was tired of making a non-livable wage . His famous almost last words to his team manager were 'See you around, but never again at a bike race' and with that he returned to his town of Wilsele to put his bike into the back yard to collect rust. He had had a modestly successful career up until then with top 10's in races like Het Volk and Paris-Brussels and a small smattering of wins including the Tour of Flanders B Race (for a while, De Ronde had 3 classes of races:The A's were the established pro's, the B's were to new pros and the C's were track riders) but it wasn't enough to live off of. He returned to Wilsele and to the family milk delivery business and began a normal life driving his milk truck around but it didn't last for too long. By the end of '67 he was back spectating races and then managing the small Goldor team. By the time the summer of '68 rolled around, he was back in the saddle and going around to smaller races...The bug had returned and this time he knew he wouldn't have any second chances.

The winter between '68 and '69 was where the legend of Frans Verbeeck's training started. He was monk-like with his training, never missing a single day, no matter how much it was raining or snowing. He even accomplished this by going and borrowing the postman's fat tired bike to use for training when there was too much snow on the ground. He stayed in and around Wilsele for his winters, as if he thrived in the Belgian winter sleet and only venturing down to the Cote d'Azur come February to win races. An account by a British rider, Billy Bilsland, talked about after one of the races down by the sea, his team had packed it into the hotel during a huge rainstorm and they noticed a rider chugging along and they commented about how much of an idiot he was until they saw that it was Verbeeck and that alone shut them up. He racked up huge numbers of kilometers and was a pioneer of riding on the road all year around.

This new found devotion to training pushed his riding to a new level and it showed during the coming years with his move to the Watney's team and racking up an impressive 75 wins in 3 season from '70-'72 and taking out 2 Omloops, An Amstel Gold, 2 more GP Jef Scherens along with countless other wins. But the major defeats started to add up as well. Second to De Vlaeminck in the '70 L-B-L and just pipping Merckx in the sprint, 3rd to Merckx at the '71 L-B-L at almost 5 minuted back, 3rd again to Merckx but this time at Lombardia at 3:30 minutes back, 3rd to Leman in a sprint at the '72 Ronde...Can you see a trend here?

He had become obsessed with beating Merckx in a monument and it pushed him to the point where his obsession might have hindered his progress.

BY THE HAIR OF HIS CHINNY, CHIN CHIN

The spring of '73 came around Verbeeck was training and riding like he had never done before. He was now considered to be one of the few riders who could beat Merckx in the big classics and it came to a head during that spring. In the lead up to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he was beaten by Merckx 3 times in the span of a week. 2nd at Gent-Wevelgem in a head up sprint, 2nd at Amstel Gold at over 3:30 back and beaten out by Merckx in the sprint for 2nd at Fleche Wallone behind Andre Dierickx.

Frustration was boiling when Verbeeck started Liege but the conditions, windy and heavy rain, favored the hardman. He marked Merckx thorughout the 236km day and by the time they entered the track at Rocourt in Liege, the front group was down too 12 with riders like Godefroot, Poulidor, Ocana, Thevenet, Zoetemelk along with two on super form. Swining around the final corner, it was just Merckx and Verbeeck barreling towards the line and when they got to it, it was so close that neither knew who had won.

When the photo finish came, it showed Merckx had beaten Frans yet again...by two centimeters. He was so crushed that Merckx even came up and apologized for beating him because he could see how much it meant to Frans just to beat Merckx once in one of cycling's biggest races. To go to the absolute peak of fitness and to still be shut out again left certain scars within Verbeeck. He did have his revenge at the Belgian championships 2 months later when he beat Merckx in a 2 up sprint after 275km of riding but it wasn't the same.

THE SHOWDOWN

Verbeeck did not give up after his tragic defeat in Liege and continued with fine results but could still not break through for the "big one". In '74 he had come 2nd, yet again, this time to Cees Baal in De Ronde mostly because he had a habit of basing he races around Merckx. Think of Pozzato and Boonen at De Ronde last year but doing that year after year except Merckx was just a half a head above the rest and almost always had an extra gear. He won at Fleche Wallone but still couldn't crack a monument.

If any year would be it, it was going to be '75. Merckx was in the rainbow stripes and Verbeeck had followed his massive training plan to a T and was ready to fight. He started out strong in the spring with good results and snagging the win at E3 over the great sprinter Maertens. He was prepped, finishing 3rd overall at the Tour of Belgium which was in the spring back then, for his final grand showdown with Merckx.

Merckx was in arguably his finest classics form ever having won MSR prior to De Ronde and was showing the one day racing Cannibal was not dead yet. His pre race quote about how good he was going went something along the lines on "I won't win by 10 minutes, but I know that it will be by a lot". When Merckx attacked with 104 kilometers to go, Verbeeck was the only one that could follow and the race was down to 2. This was Verbeeck's chance to beat Merckx head to head and to show everybody that he could beat the world's best. The two worked with precision, with Merckx leading up the steep cobbles and Verbeeck taking his pulls on the flats and their gap stretched out to almost 6 minutes ahead of the peloton. Verbeeck began to see just how good Merckx was on that day and that he had picked the wrong day to fight but he did not give in until 6km to go.

On a slight rise, Eddy just had the extra gear and simply road away from Verbeeck and soloed away for yet another classics win and leaving Verbeeck empty handed yet again. They were the 2 strongest riders by far, with Verbeeck trailing in 30 seconds after but still up 4'30 on the next rider, and it made one of the greatest Flanders that had been ridden. Yet Verbeeck had faced a defeat that hurt him more than any other; he knew that no matter what, Merckx was always going to have that extra gear and if it wasn't for him he would have been one of the greatest classics racers that had ever lived. All he could say afterwards was "He was too fast, what can I say?". He was so obsessed with beating him that he always made the race about Merckx and trying to beat him head to head and not about the race itself. The rest of his classics season was no better...2nd in Gent Wevelgem, 2nd in Fleche Wallone, 4th in Liege and 2nd at Henninger Turm. It is almost hard to look at how close he was so many times and yet he never gave up on trying to get the big one.

His final years were met with similar results. He podiumed at G-W, Fleche, Liege, Brabantsje Pijl, Henninger Turm, and the Scheldeprijs and only winning the latter. He had one last hurrah at Liege in '77 but by that time Hinault was on the scene and he could not handle the new rider and had to settle for 7th place in his final monument. Through his whole racing career, he stood up on 24 podiums in the 12* major classics and he won a total of 4 (2x Het Volk, Amstel and Fleche) and none of them were monuments. His training and commitment to the sport even after such consistent heartbreak is something that can be admired even today. His downfall was that he could not pull himself away from wanting to beat Merckx, even when he wasn't as strong as him, and if he could have done this then he would have broked through for at least one monument win. But he couldn't get past it and now today he is one of only a few riders who people say "How in the world did he not win at least monument?"

*12 classics for that era are the 5 monuments, Het volk, Amstel, G-W, Fleche, Zuri Metzgete, Paris Brussels and Paris-Tours.

Photos from VERMARC Sports

Valverde Story, Upcoming Attractions

2010-03-19T15:22:40Z

Today brings the news that Alejandro Valverde has vowed to prove his innocence after TAS-CAS ruled to uphold the Italian sanction banning him from competition. Well, good luck with that Alejandro. Valverde can still appeal the arbitration court's decision in Swiss civil court.

Meanwhile, from the upcoming attractions file, I will have a story (or possibly two) on the full TAS decision. Watch for it on Monday. The full decision has some intriguing bits to it, like say, the part where the UCI asked TAS to rule all of Valverde's results since May 2004 forfeit. Oh my! TAS also goes to town on the Spanish judicial ruling that attempted to declare the Puerto evidence off-limits for additional cases. Good times all around. Anyway, that thing is coming Monday. Doping decisions just aren't a Friday sort of deal, especially not the Friday before Milano-Sanremo.

Me, I'd rather write about Milano-Sanremo. So I'm going to.

Milan-Sanremo: the Law of Averages

2010-03-18T17:37:59Z

What's past is prologue--William Shakespeare, The Tempest

Saturday will see the 101st running of Milan-Sanremo--a handy thing for those who love stats, because it means there have been exactly 100 previous editions to play with, neatly divisible into groups of 10. So, what are the trends? What would the average race winner look like, and who among the favorites fits the profile? Races are, of course, tricksy and unpredictable things, but we've already tried to assess form, previous results, and Magic 8 Ball predictions--hey, why not stats?

A couple of notes:
La Primavera was held in April for the first 20 editions, then switched to March in 1928. The age of winner is given as the difference between the month of race and month of rider's birth, irrespective of the exact day either fell upon. Also, references are almost equally split on whether Ugo Agostoni was born in March or July. I went with March since Google gave it a slight advantage, but the difference in caculating averages is minimal.

For favorites, I'm considering (alphabetically): Daniele Bennati, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tom Boonen, Fabian Cancellara, Mark Cavendish, Tyler Farrar, Oscar Freire, Philippe Gilbert, Thor Hushovd, Alessandro Petacchi, and Filippo Pozzato--the riders given the best odds by the bookies as of this morning (this post is all about the numbers, so that seemed appropriate).

Okay, let's look at the trends--below the fold, that is.

Nationality
One of the first stats that leaps out when looking up MSR winners is that out of 100 races, 50 have been won by Italians. That's impressive, and would seem to favor an Italian winner by a long shot. But dig deeper and things look a little different: 33 of those wins occurred in the first 40 years of the race. In the past 60 editions, Italians have won 17 times, a tie with Belgians. That's still an impressive 28.33%--but it's a lot less than 50%. Subtracting out the early, Italian-dominated years, the winners shake out like this since 1950:

Belgian:17
Italian: 17
French: 8
German: 5
Spanish: 4
Dutch: 3
British: 2
Irish: 2
Swiss: 2

When comparing the Italian and Belgian wins, it's useful to note that 10 of the latter were won by just 2 men: Eddy Merckx and Roger De Vlaeminck in the '60s and '70s. In the same time, there has been only one repeat winner among the Italians. So, to put it another way, in the past 60 years there have been 16 Italian winners, compared to 9 Belgians--and there hasn't been a Belgian winner since 1999 (Andrei Tchmil, who was born Russian but acquired Belgian citizenship in 1998).

The scales, then, would still seem to tip toward an Italian winner. Although not as dominant as they were in the early days of the race, in the past 30 years they've settled into consistently winning 3-5 times per decade. That makes our Italian favorites, Bennati, Petacchi, and Pozzato look pretty good. What is not favored, however, is an Italian repeat winner. Sorry, Pippo and Ale-Jet: there hasn't been one since 1953. Advantage: Bennati.

Possibly bad news for Thor, Boasson Hagen, and Farrar: each represents a nation that has yet to win MSR. There hasn't been a new kid on the block, nationality-wise, since 1987.

The role of repeat winners
43 out of 100 editons of MSR have been won by the same 14 riders. That's a good rate of recidivism. Among our favorites are 5 previous winners: Cancelllara, Cavendish, Freire, Petacchi, and Pozzato. Since the trend has been away from Italian repeat winners, there seems to be a slight advantage here for Cav, Cance, and Freire.

Freire, of course, has already won 2 editions. Does that make him more or less likely to win again? Well, on the one hand...since 14 riders have won 43 editions, that would make the average just over 3 wins among them. But on the other, 7 of the 13 now-retired repeat winners never went beyond 2 wins. Right now, that suggests a better than half chance (53.85%) that Oscarito has also maxed out his wins. Slight advantage, then, to Cancellara and Cavendish.

Age of winner
Here's a handy-dandy chart showing the average age of MSR winner per 10 editions of the race:

A couple of things are interesting here: first, the race initially was won by younger riders, with an average age of 24.52 for the first ten runnings. There was a spike upward in the next decade, caused largely by repeat winners (especially Costante Giradengo, who at 25.08 was already above the previous average when he won his first MSR in 1918, and was 33.08 when he won his 5th in 1926).

The winner's age settled into a range of just about half a year (26.71-27.29) for the next 30 years. After race organizers added the Poggio in 1960 in an effort to make the race harder and less likely to end in a sprint finish, you might expect the age of the winner to go up a bit: in cycling, speed tends to favor the young, while endurance is the province of the more mature. And in general, that happens: the average age of winner pre-Poggio is 26.88, post-Poggio it's 28.08, a difference of more than a year. But first, the '60s saw another repeat-winner spike, this time downwards, as Eddy Merckx began winning MSR at the ridiculously young age of 20.75. At his third win in 1969, he was still a month younger than Cav was last year.*

In the past 3 decades, we've seen another stabilization of the average, this time in a tight range between 28.44 and 28.99 years of age. Only Filippo Pozzato, age 28.5, fits smack-dab within that current range. A few others are within a year: Cancellara and Gilbert are below at 28.0 and 27.67 respectively; Boonen and Benna just above at 29.42 and 29.5 years old. Advantage: Pozzato--if he can overcome the curse and become the first Italian repeat winner since 1953 that is. Slight advantage: Boonen, Bennati, Cancellara, Gilbert

But the range over the past 30 years is still 23.83 to 36.17 years, and all of the favorites fall roughly within it--except Eddy Boasson Hagen. Should he win at the age of 22.83, he'll be the 6th-youngest winner. No one under the age of 23 has won MSR since Eddy Merckx in 1967. Should Eddy II pull off a win, he'll be the 6th-youngest winner.

Petacchi would just beat out Andrei Tchmil for oldest winner--I have both at 36.17 since both are born in January, but Petacchi will actually be older by 19 days than Tchmil was at MSR in 1999.

Summing up
Taking everything into consideration, the law of averages favors Daniele Bennati for the win. He's an Italian who has not won before, and he's within .51 years of the winner's age range of the past 30 years. Fabian Cancellara, a non-Italian previous winner who is also close to the average winner's age, would be second-favorite here. Slight advantages to virtually all the other favorites, though, either for nationality, previous win, or age EXCEPT Farrar, Boasson Hagen, and Hushovd. But laws, of course, are made to be broken...let's see what actually happens on Saturday!

*It was widely reported last year that Mark Cavendish was the 3rd-youngest rider to win MSR. Not even close. From what I can tell, the myth originated with a journalist who mistakenly thought he was 22, not 23. But even so, that would have put him about 5th. If you're interested, Cav was by my calculations the 11th-youngest winner, after Eddy Merckx, Ugo Agostino [reverse these first two if Agostino was actually born in July], Eddy Merckx, Cesare Del Cancia, Loretto Petrucci, Alfredo Bovet, Henri Pelissier, Giuseppe Olmo, Loretto Petrucci, and Eddy Merckx. Remove the repeat winners, and he's still 8th.

Who Will Win Milano-Sanremo? The Magic Eight Ball Tells All

2010-03-18T01:51:46Z

Milano-Sanremo defies prediction. It's the sprinters' classic, but that hardly helps narrow down the possibilities. Especially since it's not always the sprinters' classic. Just ask Fabian Cancellara, who won with a 2 kilometer escape not too long ago. This year's race repeats the finish of the past two years along the Lungomare Italo Calvino. So someone out there - Philippe Gilbert, perhaps? - could repeat Cancellara's feat. At a loss to predict the outcome of this year's edition of La Primavera, I turned to that infallible oracle, the Magic Eight Ball.

Will we see a first-time winner at La Primavera?
Magic Eight Ball says: It is decidely so.
Alrighty then.

Will this year's Milano-Sanremo end in a sprint?
Magic Eight Ball says: Better not tell you now.
Quite the tease, this Magic Eight Ball.

Let's see what the Magic Eight Ball has to say about the favorites.

Tom Boonen: Boonen's been showing signs of form, bounding up the road during the Omloop het Nieuwsblad just because he could. Oddly, Boonen has never won Milano-Sanremo. Oddly, because he can climb, sprint, and isn't bothered by monument style distances. Boonen can also count on his Quick Step team to support him nicely. Though last season he swore off bunch sprinting, he seems recently to have changed his mind. A boy's prerogative, I hear. Will Tom Boonen win Milano-Sanremo?
Magic Eight Ball says: You may rely on it.
Tom Boonen and the Eight Ball, so tight.

Daniele Bennati: Bennati spent much of last season injured and didn't really figure in the finale at La Primavera. In truth, he didn't really figure much of anywhere, sadly. This year, he seems to have left his injured past behind. He's even won a race or two recently. His Liquigas-Doimo team is on fire of late, with oodles of wins in a very short amount of time. The team is tailor made to give Benna an arm-chair ride to the finish. Also, they're Italian, which never hurts.
Magic Eight Ball says: Concentrate and Ask Again.
Really, doesn't the Magic Eight Ball know that concentrating with Benna in the frame is like totally impossible? Silly Magic Eight Ball.

Alessandro Petacchi: Petacchi rides for Lampre-Vini Farnese now, and the change looks to suit him. He has Danilo Hondo for lead-out help, and according to Petacchi, the mechanism is beginning to function. I think that means his form is good and he likes his team, but I can't be sure. Petacchi has already won Milano-Sanremo, which if the Magic Eight Ball is to be believed, means an end to his hopes. But the Eight Ball moves in mysterious ways. I mean, they changed the finish since Petacchi won, so it's a completely different race now. Lampre's also bringing Damiano Cunego. I'm not sure why. Maybe he just needed some training or wanted to check out the scenery along the Ligurian Coast. It is quite lovely.
Magic Eight Ball says: Yes definitely.
Alessandro Petacchi will definitely win Milano-Sanremo. Apparently, he's going to share it with Tom Boonen. Hey, no one said the Magic Eight Ball was logical.

Oscar Freire: Freire has two wins to his credit so far at La Primavera. Does he have form for a third? Well, he hasn't won anything yet, which doesn't exactly scream good form. Maybe he'll get lucky and someone will pull a Zabel. Freire will have a solid Rabobank team for support including Paul Maartens and Lars Boom, who may not enjoy this many kilometers in one sitting.
Magic Eight Ball says: Don't count on it.
Alas, no podium flowers for Oscarito.

Filippo Pozzato: He is the Italian National Champion, which should count for something in one of the biggest races on the Italian calendar. Also, he has very swank hair. This also is important. Pozzato won Milano-Sanremo once before. Not a bunch sprinter, Pozzato needs a disorganized finale or a strong breakaway to smile on the podium's top step.
Magic Eight Ball says: Without a doubt.
Carp the diem and all Pozzato, the Magic Eight Ball says it's your lucky day. Of course, it also picked Boonen and Petacchi, so it seems to be having a bit of trouble making up its mind. Omniscience is fickle somedays.

Edvald Boasson Hagen: A fine young cannibal, this Edvald. He's not a pure bunch sprinter, though he's won bunch sprints. A Cancellara-like escape is well within his abilities, if he can hold his form together for the full length of Milano-Sanremo. La Primavera, she is often cruel to the young riders. Also, Edvald appears to have directional difficulties in the final kilometer. Pssst Ed, you get there faster if you go straight. Just trying to help.
Magic Eight Ball Says: Very doubtful.
Maybe next year for the young Norwegian.

Tyler Farrar: The American from Garmin-Transitions made the podium at Omloop het Newsawhatsit for the biggest result of his career to date. I guess he's on form or something. The sprint train at Garmin-Transitions has looked a tad ragged at Tirreno-Adriatico. Hopefully, they get it sorted out pronto. Farrar, he goes uphill pretty good for a sprinter, and it'd be quite a coup to take out his first monument.
Magic Eight Ball says: Outlook not so good.
Farrar's in with a chance, but maybe the podium's looking more likely than the win.

Mark Cavendish: Cavendish won this race last year and is widely considered the fastest sprinter in the world. But even fast guys sometimes lose. Cavendish lost a stack of training time to some sort of gnarly dental problem and is slowly building his form. Or, maybe he's just totally sandbagging. Because that never happens.
Magic Eight Ball says: Cannot predict now.
What good is a Magic Eight Ball that cannot predict now? What, it has a headache or something? So temperamental. Maybe Cavendish, maybe not. That's all I got.

Thor Hushovd: Thor leads Cervélo TestTeam after Barbie got his knee done. Poor Barbie, no second place this year for you. Thor, he has experience. Has he ever won this race? My memory says no. Podium? I'll go with yes. Will he win this year?
Magic Eight Ball says: Better not tell you now.
This Magic Eight Ball is getting irritating. If not now, then when?

Matti Breschel: La Primavera has never had much love for the Danish ex-model (You know you're jealous Barbie, it's okay to admit it.) Maybe he just likes Belgium better. And La Primavera, she can sense such things and it doesn't do to offend her. Holds a grudge, that girl. Breschel shares Saxo Bank with Fabian Cancellara for this race. Who is more likely to win? Let's see what kind of love the Magic Eight Ball has for young Matti, shall we?
Magic Eight Ball says: My sources say no.
See what I told you about La Primavera? She's a feisty one.

Philippe Gilbert: Gilbert never saw a doomed breakaway he didn't like. He joined a move with Riccò not too long ago at Milano-Sanremo, back when Riccò was still racing, that is. Anyway, they didn't make it. Gilbert appears to have gotten slightly smarter in his attacks, or at least, he looked really really smart last year at Paris-Tours and Giro di Lombardia. Winning will have that effect. At Liège-Bastogne-Liège, not so much. Gilbert's a long-shot for this Milano-Sanremo, because really, the breakaway so rarely succeeds. But perhaps the Magic Eight Ball disagrees?
Magic Eight Ball says: My reply is no.
Apparently, the Magic Eight Ball does not disagree. No successful breakaway for Gilbert this time.

Fabian Cancellara: Cancellara won this race in one of the more exciting final attacks in recent years. The RAI announcers nearly had an apoplexy, which is always a sign that some badass bike racing is going down. Look up badass bike racing in the dictionary? You'll find a picture of Cancellara. A repeat of his previous win would be badassery in the extreme. Maybe too extreme. Never count out Cancellara when there's a finish line at stake. At least, that's what I always say.
Magic Eight Ball says: Yes.
The Magic Eight Ball apparently believes in the Badassery. Who am I to question?

One final question for the Magic Eight Ball before we leave it to its own Omniscient devices: Do you know anything about bike racing?
Magic Eight Ball says: Don't count on it.

Teams for Flanders

2010-03-18T00:49:38Z

Tour of Flanders teams for 2010:
ProTour Teams:

Quick Step (BEL)
Omega Pharma-Lotto (BEL)
Caisse d'Epargne (ESP)
Euskaltel-Euskadi (ESP)
AG2R-La Mondiale (FRA)
Francaise des Jeux (FRA)
Liquigas Doimo (ITA)
Astana (KAZ)
HTC-Columbia (USA)
RadioShack (USA)
Footon Servetto (ESP)
Lampre-Farnese Vini (ITA)
Rabobank (NED)
Team Sky (GBR)
Garmin-Transitions (USA)
Katusha (RUS)
Milram (GER)
Saxo Bank (DAN)

Pro Continental Teams:

BBox Bouygues Telecom (FRA)
BMC Racing Team (USA)
Cervélo TestTeam (SUI)\
Landbouwkrediet (BEL)
Skil-Shimano (NED)
Topsport Vlaanderen - Mercator (BEL)
Vacansoleil Pro Cycling Team (NED)

Velonation has the story along with a list of the 15 climbs in this years race. (Astana seems to have found it's cobble riders for this race.)

MSR: VDS Smackdown! Can You Klopt This?

2010-03-17T16:32:59Z

I'm still chuckling over the very idea of Chris klopting me at Milan Sanremo. I don't know who he has exactly but I am supremely confident that my front line of the Wenatchee Wonder, Oscarito!, Hooter, and Ginanni with my backups of Boomer, Roelandts, Van Summeren, Maaskant, and Uran will carry the day for me.

What? You say you got a better team? Yeah, right. Okay let's see your team and see if you can do better!

[Chris here] I just wanted to add one more VDS note: there are four teams with Jens Keukeleire. Bow down to them.

Countdown to the Cobbles: Italian Holiday!

2010-03-17T07:03:54Z

The Countdown is pleased to take a brief respite from the grey skies of our native Flanders for a holiday of basking in the sunshine on the Italian Riviera. Yes, it's MSR week, where we put mud and cold behind us for a beauty of a more... obvious sort. With temperatures in the upper 50s, it's time to shed the wool layers and black socks, lay out on the beach for some vitamin D replenishment, and generally dry out. Should be a lovely week...

3. Everyone Else Will Win

With Tom Boonen firmly installed (cough) as the favorite to win Milano-Sanremo, the Man from Mol is fighting back with every bag of sand he has, telling Sporza:

Daniele Bennati is the main favorite for me. Maybe not the most likely name, but he is good at driving, like his Liquigas team. Perhaps Liquigas drives the same tactics as us: a long, hard race and a sprint with a depleted group in Sanremo.

Is it me or does he sound a bit unpersuaded by his own words? Like a guy who feels unbelievably confident but has to go through the motions of talking down his chances? Maybe it's a language translation thing.

[Speaking of translations, my favorite Dutch word of the week is "klopt," as in, "Boasson Hagen klopt Petacchi in massesprint." Google tells me it literally means "true" but it translates to "beats" in context. It also sounds exactly like what happens when you hit someone in the helmet with a wooden shoe -- onomatopoeia that also works as a metaphor for vanquishing an enemy. Want me to use it in a sentence? Here goes: I will klopt Ursula in the VDS this week, mark my, um, words.]

Anyway, Bennati thinks Freire will win. Freire is picking Petacchi. Petacchi picks Allan Davis. Davis has tabbed Hushovd as a "sure thing." Hushovd says the pressure is all on Farrar. Farrar thinks Cavendish has another trick up his sleeve. And Cav is picking... OK, himself. Hey, it's worked before. Oh, and Bwin has installed as the favorite... Andre Greipel. Who isn't on the startlist. Can I get a bet down there?

2. Meanwhile, Back on the Cobbles...

What, there's an actual cobbled race today? That would be Nokere-Koerse, which loops around Greater Nokere for a few hours. The best description you'll likely find in English is here. Bottom line: it tends to finish in a sprint, despite the line being at the top of the Nokereberg, a 350-meter cobbled hill in the 5% incline range. Along with Sunday's Ronde van het Groene Hart, Nokere-Koerse is a great opportunity for smaller teams or riders on the big squads who weren't chosen for the Italian Vacation to make a name for themselves before every last classics guy on the planet descends on Brussels Airport sometime Sunday afternoon. In short, for the guys at these two races, this is a big deal.

The races themselves don't seem much alike; Nokere-Koerse dates back to 1944 (huh?) and runs the Vlaamse Ardennen while the Green Heart Course kicked off in 2007 and rides around the flat Holland provinces. But spring racing is never easy, and weather or strategy can turn either one into a relatively hard or, um, less hard day in the saddle. So bike racers will race their bikes in interesting ways... but one way would make this even more interesting: if someone pulled off the Forgotten Double. With only three years in common it hasn't happened yet, but Wouter Weylandt won both a year apart. He's not here, so it's up to someone else. Like Jens Keukeleire. Full startlist here. Neither RTBF nor Sporza show signs of live video. Bummer...

1. Locked and Loaded

El Pistolero himself, Alberto Contador, will set foot in Belgium with the intent to race his bicycle, as he apparently has committed to riding La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He has ditched the Vuelta a Pais Vasco and Volta a Catalunya in order to ride the Classics this year, for the first time since 2007. He will also ride the Criterium International/Jens Voigt Invitational, facing Lance Armstrong in a race for the first time since the 2005 Tour. It's been a while since a Tour winner did something in the Ardennes, but sure would make for good fun.

Cuddles' Corner!

"Yesterday Edvald Boasson Hagen won a stage of Tirreno Adriatico and celebrated by flapping his arms, alternating left and right, in a shameful, terrible display. Obviously this guy is going to win more than his share of races, so something must be done about this. Can the Podium Cafe solve his problem and design a victory salute for the Lillehammer Lightning?"

MSR Week: Sizing Up the Sprinters

2010-03-16T22:02:29Z

I don't have a great deal to say about Tirreno-Adriatico, since it's a training event and since Gavia won Italy in the custody battle. Except this: is there another stage race in the world where the stages overshadow the overall? Le Due Mari features some really excellent stage battles... and I couldn't care less about Garzelli versus Scarponi. No time trial, smallish climbs (the race's hallmark, really), and again, it's a training race, except to the guys at the head of the field coming into the finishing town. Then it was truly game on.

Which is why today's sprint seemed so important. The sprinting crowd was very much in effect at T-A, and yet there had only been a couple true sprint finishes before today, where a bunch gallop was a virtual lock: long, flat run-in, sprinters getting tired of missing out on the action, seventh day of cold, wet racing which would tend to diminish the mental and physical state of someone looking to try a long solo effort. It was business time.

Now, my shtick (several years running) on Milano-Sanremo is that anyone can win, in a variety of ways. The climbers can attack on the Cipressa or more likely the Poggio. The all-rounders can sneak away on the descent into San Remo. Italy breeds a whole separate class of riders -- climbers who can sprint -- seemingly engineered for this terrain. Then there's the effect of 300km in the legs, which can scramble the conventional wisdom.

But for now, let's put aside the Garzellis and Pozzatos and focus for now on sizing up the sprinting peloton for the main course, La Primavera.

Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sky

Form Indicator: Well, he just dusted Alessandro Petacchi in Italy on a nice, flat run-in. Other than beating Mark Cavendish in the Madison or Shaun White in the halfpipe, I don't know what he has left to prove.

Team: The Silverbacks were in charge today, beating Lampre and Liquigas to the front of the bunch. Surely this made all the difference: Petacchi had to come around (and couldn't), Farrar got boxed in, and I'd have to rewind the tape to figure out where Bennati disappeared to. The lack of a Columbia presence at the front has thrown the pack into chaos, and Sky have as decent a chance to fill the vacuum and establish some order as the next team. Barry, Sutton, Henderson and Flecha (if he's not freelancing) are all cool-handed veterans.

Obstacle: Boasson Hagen hasn't done a 300km race as the leader of a pro team. I'm sure he can survive, as he did last year in service of Cavendish, but will he have the same blinding speed after that distance? Will he manage to fight to the front after the long ride and the Capes and Cipressa and Poggio?

Survey Says? Odds-on favorite right now. By Friday he will have been declared the winner in advance. Eddy is saying he's not as sure. Neither am I.

Carry on...

Alessandro Petacchi, Lampre

Form Indicator: Can't complain, really. He has four wins, though all B-list quality, and only a pair of seconds in T-A, losing to Bennati in stage 3. As a former winner, that may be close enough in the absence of a true, flawless favorite.

Team: Lampre had one guy with him today. There's a lot I don't like about this team, but surely they can get around Liguria just fine, thanks.

Obstacle: He won MSR in 2005, on the heels of three stage wins in T-A. In short, he was on fire. When he has been less than completely on fire, he hasnt' won here.

Survey Says? Top five. Probably no better.

Mark Cavendish, HTC-Columbia

Form Indicator: Dead last today after falling with 8km to go. More distressing, however, has been the fact that he couldn't get to the front of any race. By this time last year he had five wins in his pocket, including the T-A finale. Clearly he's not just super-sandbagging, he is not in shape yet. And all this because of bad teeth. Insert Simpsons joke. You have to wonder if they shouldn't call up Greipel and tell him to haul ass to Milan. Just in case.

Team: They're the industry standard for leadouts, though only if there's someone behind them to actually, you know, be led out.

Obstacle: I don't want to be unfair -- he's been off his bike. Even Lars Boom would look like crap now if he were unable to train. Cav will get there soon and make amends.

Survey Says? Look on the bright side, he needs training miles, right?

Tyler Farrar, Garmin-Transitions

Form Indicator: Like Petacchi, no complaints. He hasn't scored the big win, like last year, so I wouldn't assume either he or his squad are fully confident about their chances. But I am fairly sure that if you asked him how his form is, he would say (truthfully) that he feels fine. Just waiting for things to click.

Team: Not a great week for the Gar-Men. With Dean, Hunter, Maaskant and Van Summeren all on hand, you would think/hope that one of their primary objectives for the week was to fire up the leadout machine. Not that anyone should confuse this with Qatar, but where there were sprints, Farrar was mostly on his own, trying to grab the wheel of whoever had the hot hand. The window is open for Garmin to move up and form their train, but Cavendish will be in shape soon, Columbia will get reorganized, and the window may just slam shut.

Obstacle: Newness. He crashed out last year, in his first participation. Things can only get better, no?

Survey Says? I would be surprised, but not shocked.

Tom Boonen, Quick Step

Form Indicator: The guy is a beast. Boonen has picked his spots judiciously, like a veteran on good form and not looking to squander it. He's got four wins, including the only stage he really contested in Tirreno.

Team: No less professional than the others. He doesn't do big leadouts, but Tosatto and Velo are on hand for that, with Chavanel and Barredo looking vaguely threatening to any team that locks exclusively on Tommeke's wheel.

Obstacle: Not only has the win eluded him, even in his biggest years (2004-06), he hadn't even won a race in Italy before the stage win last Friday. CrAzY, I know. But '06 and '07 were the only years where Boonen contested the finale, and he has a 3rd and 4th to show for it.

Survey Says? My pick to win. Name a monument that is within reach and that he hasn't already won? He'll go all out this time.

Thor Hushovd, Cervelo Test Team

Form Indicator: Good question. Apparently he wasn't feeling well this week. Cervelo really can't buy a break so far this year. "A little sick" might not sound like much, but this race will be won by whoever has snappier legs after nearly 300km. Not by someone battling a virus.

Team: The usual array of hardened vets: Hammond, Klier, Hunt, etc. Least of their problems.

Obstacle: MSR has never been overly kind to Hushovd, with only a pair of thirds over the years, though you would think otherwise. He's a sprinter who can handle his bike and pour on the wattage for long periods of time. The odd climb isn't necessarily death to his chances. I would have to guess that there's never been anything holding him back (when properly fit); just other guys being a shade better.

Survey Says? Forget it. If he's not in perfect health, he's toast.

Daniele Bennati, Liquigas

Form Indicator: Good enough. His win over Petacchi this week should put the doubters to rest, or at least turn the volume down some.

Team: Liquigas were all over the front today at 2km but never got organized. Bennati himself drifted back 70 places. No matter; they have carried a lot of water this week on two fronts. You can't not like this team right now.

Obstacle: Does he believe he can win? Or something like that. There is an inside-baseball story someplace that I don't have on why Daniele Bennati is a great sprinter but doesn't win more.

Survey Says? Meh. Top ten, if it's a sprint.

Oscar Freire, Rabobank

Form Indicator: Unlike his rivals, Freire spent no time in Italy putting his nose into the wind. His DS Frans Maassen called him the "main man" for MSR, and with no indicator of trouble, I would hesitate to argue.

Team: The eternal question: will it all click for Rabo? Well, it has twice before, and this Rabo team, while greener, is long on wattage. Lopex's image of Boom thundering home in leadout for Freire is a compelling one. Whether we will ever see it is another matter.

Obstacle: Nothing. Certainly not the hills, or experience, or his team, or his health. Someone better?

Survey Says? Top three likely.

Matti Breschel, Saxo Bank

Form Indicator: I can't find any indication that there's anything wrong, so I will assume that, despite no intriguing results, Breschel is all ready for Saturday.

Team: Fabian Cancellara is either an ideal teammate or a huge obstacle, depending on whether the 2008 winner has designs of his own on victory. Otherwise, the usual, ultra-professional outfit.

Obstacle: Breschel's history at MSR in no way indicates that he's got a chance to win.

Survey Says? Meh.

Greg Van Avermaet, Omega Pharma

Form Indicator: 110 percent Meh. Not a single top ten this year. He hasn't won a competition of any kind since taking the points prize at the 2008 Vuelta. Meh!

Team: Omega Pharma. What could possibly go wrong?

Obstacle: Phillippe Gilbert, for starters. If it's a big bunch and Gilbert is there, you can be 100% sure that's who the team will work for. I don't think of Gilbert as a sprinter (to the extent you might think that way of Boonen), but after last season Gilbert is under pressure to keep winning.

Survey Says? Nah.

Allan Davis, Astana

Form Indicator: Nothing to speak of. Davis got a late start to the season after his transfer jumble. It shows.

Team: Astana do certain things well, but this isn't one of them.

Obstacle: Too many to count. Except for experience: Davis does have a second and fourth in his last two MSR starts.

Survey Says? If he were more prepared, I would make him a dark horse pick. But I just don't think he's fully on his game yet.

Mattia Gavazzi, Colnago

Form Indicator: Fifth today. That was actually the first time this week he showed his face in a finale. So, not great.

Team: Colnago. At least they will look good.

Obstacle: First MSR, small team...

Survey Says? Fuggedaboutit.

Francesco Ginanni, Androni Giocayaddayadda

Form Indicator: Now here's your Conti-level Italian dark horse. He won Trofeo Laigueglia, beating Gavazzi, and is generally a consistent, all round kind of rider. He was also in the mix with the hard men at Monte Paschi, taking 6th. Sorta pushes the definition of a "sprinter" for this column, but I didn't want to ignore all the conti guys.

Team: The guys whose kit looks like an office birthday card. Two Bertolinis, a Bertogliati and a Bertagnolli. Also, Alberto Loddo, who wins the odd sprint. And Scarponi, lurking around looking for his own chance. Not terrible by any means.

Obstacle: I don't know if a young guy who wins smaller races in sprints from smaller fields can possibly navigate a cream-of-the-crop bunch in full gallop.

Survey Says? Nice story, except it won't happen.

William Bonnet, BBox Bouygues Telecom

Form Indicator: Undoubtedly on solid footing, after his win in Paris-Nice... except he took a DNF in the last stage, and I can't figure out why. It's fairly unusual to do so, barring illness or injury, which would take him completely out of contention.

Team: Is this race in France? Mais non. Une grande probleme.

Obstacle: Beyond his health and his team? Can't think of anything.

Survey Says? Miracles do happen.

Today's finale: judge for yourself...

Settima Tappa Tirreno - Adriatico 2010 (via SpazioCiclismo)

Twitter del Giorno

2010-03-16T16:12:25Z

It must be Milano-Sanremo Week.

Lars Boom seems to think so, anyway.

It is nice weather on the poggio. - http://moby.to/vwa3f8
about 1 hours ago via Mobypicture

Basta with this rain and snow!