Red Reporter

Laynce Nix a free agent, Daryl Thompson outrighted off 40-man roster

2009-11-20T21:00:11Z

Laynce Nix a free agent, Daryl Thompson outrighted off 40-man roster

Mark Sheldon tweets it. I think we all expected Nix to get nixed with so many better, cheaper options, and Thompson shouldn't be a surprise either. Dude's been riddled with injuries. Remember his debut at Yankee Stadium though? That was awesome.

MLBTraderumors also says Craig Tatum was claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Plenty of roster clean-up going on with deadline to set the 40-man fast approaching.

Update at 4:04 PM (by BK):
We have a list of players added to the 40-man roster:
RHP Enerio Del Rosario
OF Chris Heisey
RHP Logan Ondrusek
RHP Jordan Smith
IF Chris Valaika
LHP Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
LHP Travis Wood

No shockers there, and Wood and Heisey get protection from the Rule 5. Anyone you think should have been protected but wasn't?

The Greatest Reds: #34 - #31

2009-11-20T17:00:13Z

34. Billy Rhines

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1890-92, 1895-97	SP	33	9	86
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1890	1890
0%	0%	100%	1890	1890
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	ERA+ – 1890, 1896 ERA – 1890, 1986 WHIP – 1890, 1896 Hits Per Inning – 1896		-9th in career ERA+ -11th in career complete games -19th in career wins -34th in career strikeouts -39th in career walks per inning

Billy Rhines, a household name in all but the most rustic of homes, has the 9th best peak in Reds history, but just the 86th best prime score. How is this possible? In 1890, as a 21 year-old rookie playing in the inaugural NL season in Cincinnati put together a season which has not been topped since: Rhines had a 28-17 record with a 1.95 ERA (leading the league), which was good for a 184 ERA+ (also led the league) over 401.1 innings (6th best in the NL). He started 45 games, and finished them all. As great as that season was, it did not portend a great future: over the remainder of his career, most of which was with the Reds, he was strictly an average pitcher, with a .500 W-L record and a 105 ERA+. He did, however, manage a blast-from-the-past type season in 1896, recording a 2.45 ERA (188 ERA+), albeit in just 143 innings.

33. Jim Maloney

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1960-1970	SP, RP	30	42	35
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1965	Never
3%	0%	97%	1965	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1965	Strikeouts Per Inning – 1963 Shutouts – 1966		-1st in career strikeouts -2nd in career hits per inning -7th in career wins -9th in career games started -20th in career ERA+

From 1963 through 1969, Jim Maloney had a 117-60 record, and a stifling 2.90 ERA, which was good for a 125 ERA+. Over that period, he won 20 games twice, and finished in the top 10 in wins five times. His ERA+ ranked in the top 10 four times over that period, and his strikeout totals ranked in the top 10 five times—due in large part to his 99 mph fastball. So why doesn’t Maloney’s name roll off the tongue like the other pitching elites of the era? While he clearly wasn’t as good as a Gibson or a Koufax, Maloney also had a few cards stacked against him: his pitched in a stadium which inflated offense, sometimes as close to 15% higher than Dodger Stadium; he didn’t play for a team playing on the big stage; and he had the incredible misfortune to have the worst season of his career during the Year of the Pitcher, 1968. While some pitchers were decimating the 2.00 ERA threshold, Maloney struggled to a 3.61 ERA (88 ERA+). Nonetheless, in 11 seasons with the Reds, Maloney won 53 more games than he lost, while compiling a 117 ERA+. Maloney’s career ended abruptly, with all but 47 of his 1849 innings coming before his age-30 season.

32. Bob Ewing

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1902-1909	SP	30	44	30
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1905	1907
3%	0%	97%	1905	1907
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		-5th in career WHIP -8th in career innings pitched -14th in career ERA+ -14th in career strikeouts -16th in career wins

Long Bob Ewing, standing at 6’6", became a Red after he pitched well against them during an exhibition between the Reds and a local semi-pro team. He made his major league debut the following year at the age of 29, and not once in his eight seasons with the Reds did he post an ERA+ below 100. Ewing had three very good seasons in which he posted top-ten ERA+ seasons, using his spitball to full effect, winning 20 games in 1905, and pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA in 1907. Despite his career ERA+ of 121 with the Reds, Ewing only had five more victories than losses. From 1903 through 1908, Ewing finished in the NL top ten in strikeout/walk ratio.

31. Dan Driessen

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1973-1984	1B, 3B	22	72	58
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1980	Never
88%	12%	0%	1980	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Walks – 1980 Hit By Pitch – 1980		-9th in career walks -13th in career doubles -15th in career hits -16th in career HR -16th in career RBI

I remember as a kid having a baseball card which referenced Driessen as the Reds’ RBI leader from the prior season (1982). So what if he did so with only 57 RBI that year, right? Known as the guy who made Tony Perez expendable, Driessen was steady, but never excellent: every season with the Reds saw Driessen hit to an OPS+ between 102 and 125 en route to a cumulative total of 115. He didn’t hit for a particularly high average (.271 in 12 years as a Red), and was limited, power-wise: he never hit more than 18 dingers. He was good, however, at taking a walk (his on-base percentage with the Reds was 90 points higher than his batting average), and was known as an excellent fielder, leading first basemen in fielding percentage three separate times.

The Red Reporter Book Club (Season 2, Episode 1): The Machine - The Prologue

2009-11-20T04:27:57Z

Welcome to Red Reporter's second hurrah into some old-timey nerdery in the form of a book club. This time we'll be reading Joe Posnanski's The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stopping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. As most of you know, Posnanski is a former Cincinnati Post reporter, current Sports Illustrated writer, and a Clevelander at heart. I think he does a great job discussing the personalities and stories of the 1975 Reds, and if you have the means I highly recommend acquiring The Machine and giving it a read. I'll try to post something every week or two covering a chapter of the book so that we finish the book before Opening Day.

Like a great leadoff hitter the Prologue sets the table for the tour de force to follow. Appropriately, the Prologue begins by describing Pete Rose. Plenty of guys play the game hard, but it's hard to imagine any player today who acts as ferociously as Rose on field, in the dugout, and in the clubhouse. With the Reds down three runs in the sixth inning of Game 7, Pete paced the dugout, cursing and getting in the faces of any teammate to tell them how much they (and the Sox) sucked. Of course, Tony Perez would then hit a two-run HR and the Reds would come back to beat Boston by a run, securing not just a champsionship but an escape from the choker label that had dogged the pre-'75 team.

So here are a few questions and observations for discussion.

- How important is it to have a fiery leader like Pete Rose in a game 7? I think it's natural to evaluate a championship team and concoct a story about how the team "gelled" or that so-and-so wouldn't let the team lose. Over the course of a 162-game season, I don't think these intangibles matter all that much. But in the World Series, in game 7? I don't think it's inconceivable that personalities player a larger role and that some players react differently to the pressure than others.

- With the Reds down by 3 in the 6th inning, Tony Perez told Sparky "Don't worry. I hit a home run." And then:

Earlier in the game, [Boston pitcher Bill] Lee had thrown his slow curve, a lollipop of a pitch that peaked at about ten feet off the ground and then dropped gently into the strike zone.... Doggie was mesmerized, and he could not unleash his swing. "Throw it again," he muttered now.... Bill Lee began his windup, and then he unleased it one more time, his slow curveball, and Perez saw it, his eyes widened, and he did something funny in his swing. He buckled, like a car trying to jump into second gear.

I watched the at bat after reading the book, and man, did Perez crush it. Well over the Monster. With Bench on first after Rose had ferociously broken up the DP, the Reds were within one and would win the game, and the championship, on Joe Morgan's bloop RBI single in the 9th.

Perez's reputation as a clutch hitter may well have pushed him into the Hall of Fame. Is that reputation deserved, and if so, does that justify his inclusion into the Hall? If you had to pick between Perez and Rose, who would you put in the Hall?

- It's interesting how the perceptions of each team have evolved since the Seventies. The Reds have gone from dynasty to forgotten man. The Red Sox have done more or less the opposite. Before '75 they weren't known as a "cursed" franchise (I believe that wasn't invented until after 1986, but someone correct me if I'm off). They were simply known as a bad team that had appeared in two WS since 1918 and were the last to integrate.

The Greatest Reds: #38 - #35

2009-11-19T17:00:13Z

38. Miller Huggins

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1904-1909	2B	50	34	26
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1905	Never
75%	25%	0%	1905	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1964	Walks – 1905, 1907 Singles – 1906		-11th in career sacrifice hits -20th in career walks -25th in career stolen bases -26th in career on-base percentage -44th in career runs scored

Bill James once fashioned a way of calculating a player’s most similar players, statistically, and he posited that if a player’s most similar player had a relatively low similarity score, it was evidence of that player’s excellence. In Miller Huggins’s case, he shared a rather low score with his most similar player (Don Blasingame), but in his case, it was due to the unique nature of the 5’6" player’s game. Consider: over Huggins’s 13-year career, his on-base percentage was 68 points higher than his slugging percentage. He routinely topped 600 plate appearances in a season, but never even reached 20 doubles in any one year, despite his good speed (324 career steals). He scored nearly three times as many runs as he drove in. Roughly half of his playing career was with the Reds, accumulating a batting line of 260/362/310 (104 OPS+), before being traded to the Cardinals for a pair of players who never did much to help the good guys.

37. Sean Casey

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1998-2005	1B	33	34	49
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2004	2001
91%	9%	0%	2004	2001
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Hutch Award – 1999 All Star – 1999, 2001, 2004	N/A		-11th in career doubles -12th in career batting average -13th in career OPS -19th in career home runs -22nd in career RBI

Acquired in a strange deal where the Reds gave up the presumed Opening Day starter (Dave Burba) during the final week of Spring Training, Casey went on to become both a fan favorite and a source of fan disappointment. At his best, Casey was a sweet-swinging hitter, capable of .300+ batting averages, 40+ doubles, and 20+ homers. In his worst moments, his flaws became more evident: a poor fielder, a remarkably slow runner, and a swing that—when off—seemed auto-tuned to hit ground balls to the 2nd baseman. The statistical record is equally polar: Casey had three seasons where he had a batting average over .300, and a slugging percentage over .500. He also had three seasons where the average fell below the .300 mark and his slugging percentage was below .420. Overall, this accounted to a rather middling stat line with the Reds for a modern day first baseman (305/371/463; 114 OPS+), and his peaks, while strong (three times over a 900 OPS), weren’t good enough to carry a team. Casey was the best Red one time: in 2001, he finished first on a dismal offense in RBI (89) and runs (69).

36. Jake Beckley

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1897-1903	1B	37	50	32
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1900	Never
88%	12%	0%	1900	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1971	N/A		-3rd in career batting average -10th in career triples -12th in career OPS+ -24th in career runs scored -24th in career RBI

When Beckley retired in 1907, he held records for most games played at first base, as well as most putouts recorded at first. The games played record has since been eclipsed by Eddie Murray, but the putouts mark remains. 7 of Beckley’s 20 seasons were spent in Cincinnati, where he signed partway through the 1897 season as a free agent after the Giants released him, thinking his skills had fully receded. Instead, he got even better (his OPS+ with the Reds was 128 as compared to his career mark of 125), routinely hitting over .300 and finishing in the NL top 10 in RBI, doubles, and triples. Over the course of Beckley’s career, several idiosyncrasies appeared: he was known to flip his bat around and bunt with the handle; he once hit three home runs in a game—in a season where he had a total of eight; he was known for pulling the hidden ball trick; he was occasionally witnessed cutting across the diamond to score from 2nd base; and he once—early in his career while still with the Pittsburgh National League team—jumped to the upstart Players League in a bid to make more money. His quality hitting skill remained even and constant throughout his career, however: the Reds sold Beckley to the Cardinals after the 1903 season because manager Joe Kelley wanted to play first base instead. Beckley responded with a 144 OPS+ in 1904.

35. Bug Holliday

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1890-1898	CF, LF	41	40	26
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1892	Never
81%	19%	0%	1892	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Home Runs – 1892 At Bat / Home Run Ratio – 1892		-8th in career batting average -9th in career stolen bases -13th in career runs scored -14th in career triples -18th in career RBI

Holliday made his career debut, at age 18, for the Chicago White Stockings in that era’s version of the World Series. They needed a fill-in outfielder one day, and he got the call. Four years later (1889), he re-debuted as a member of the Red Stockings in their final year in the American Association. As a 22 year old, he led the league in home runs. Upon the team’s switch to the National League, he hit a home run on Opening Day, and was over the next five seasons one of the league’s pre-eminent power hitters, despite the dead ball of the times. In fact, through age 27, Holliday had a career NL OPS+ of 127, and in his best two seasons had OPS+ marks above 140. In 1892, Holliday had top-ten finishes in hits, runs, triples, and RBI, in addition to his league-leading home run total of 13. Two years later, in a higher offensive environment, Holliday hit .372, knocked in 119 runs, and topped a 940 OPS (123 OPS+). So what kept him from being one of the true deadball-era greats? An appendectomy in 1895 apparently removed the greater part of his talent as well. From 1895 through the end of Holliday’s career in 1898, he was a part-time player, only appearing in 152 games, with just 2 home runs and a sub-par (for him) OPS+ level of 96.

Dusty's Father Dies

2009-11-19T04:30:01Z

Dusty's Father Dies

After all the bad things I've said about Dusty, I wish him and his family nothing but the best in what has to be a very difficult time.

The Greatest Reds: #42 - #39

2009-11-18T19:00:11Z

42. Curt Walker

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1924-1930	RF, LF	42	50	44
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1926	1926
82%	18%	0%	1926	1926
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		-6th in career triples -10th in career on-base percentage -26th in career RBI -29th in career hits -33rd in career runs scored

In Walker’s seven years as a Red, he was a consistent source of triples, hitting a total of 94, and at least ten each year. Five of those years, he finished in the NL top 10. Additionally, Walker was above average in terms of taking a walk, and his career hitting rates as a Red were 303/378/441 (113 OPS+). Ultimately, however, the Reds might have been better off keeping the player they traded for Walker (George Harper), who from 1924 through the end of his career in 1929 hit for an OPS+ of 127, albeit in about 1100 fewer plate appearances, plus being a better defender in right field.

41. Johnny Temple

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1952-59, 1964	2B	43	46	35
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1959	1958
71%	29%	0%	1959	1958
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1956, 1957, 1959 (2)	Singles – 1956 At Bats – 1956 Walks – 1957 Sacrifice Hits – 1957, 1958 Sacrifice Flies – 1959		-16th in career on-base percentage -16th in career walks -26th in career hits -29th in career runs scored -38th in career doubles

Owning all the tools except for power, but none of the tools in abundance, Temple was a good second baseman for the six years he was a full time starter there for the Reds. Perhaps his greatest skill was in his bat control, and his command of the strike zone: Temple had more than twice as many walks as strikeouts during his Reds tenure, and frequently finished on the sacrifice hit and sacrifice fly leaderboards. When he hit for just a little bit of power, like he did in 1958 and 1959 (40 and 49 extra base hits, respectively), he became a quite valuable player, with both seasons’ OPS+ at or above 110. After that strong ’59 season, he was traded cross-state to the Indians for Gordy Coleman—who went on to be the starting 1st baseman for the ’61 pennant winners—as well as Billy Martin and Cal McLish. For the remainder of his career with the Indians, Orioles, Astros and the Reds again, Temple had trouble consistently staying in the lineup.

40. Mike Mitchell

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1907-1912	RF	47	33	32
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1909	1909
87%	13%	0%	1909	1909
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Triples – 1909, 1910		-7th in career triples -17th in career stolen bases -29th in career OPS+ -37th in career RBI -38th in career hits

After kicking around the minors for several years, Mitchell finally clicked as a hitter during his age-26 season, for which he was rewarded with a major league contract. Over the next six seasons, Mitchell was a very good hitter (totals with the Reds: 283/345/387, 118 OPS+), and an average defensive right fielder. At his peak in 1909, Mitchell rebounded from a poor 1908 season to hit .310 (2nd in NL), with a .378 OBP (5th in NL), a .430 slugging percentage (2nd in NL), 83 runs scored (8th), 17 triples (1st), 4 home runs (6th), 86 RBI (4th), and 37 stolen bases (6th). His OPS+ of 152 was second only to Honus Wagner. He never again finished in the top ten of any of the rate categories. In December of 1912, Mitchell was involved in an eight-player trade with the Cubs that amounted to very little on either side.

39. Jose Rijo

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1988-95, 2001-02	SP, RP	38	44	38
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1993	1993
0%	0%	100%	1993	1993
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
World Series MVP – 1990 All Star – 1994	W-L Percentage – 1991 WHIP – 1991 Strikeouts – 1993 Strikeouts Per Inning – 1993 Games Started – 1993, 1994		-2nd in career ERA+ -3rd in career K/BB ratio -4th in career strikeouts -9th in career W-L percentage -9th in career WHIP

Having broken into the Majors at age 18 with the Yankees, Rijo had not yet enjoyed any real level of success when the Reds traded Dave Parker for him four years later. Employing him in a hybrid starter-reliever role, Rijo broke out in a big way: 13-8, with a 2.39 ERA (150 ERA+) in 162 innings. It was the first of six consecutive seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite his great pitching, and despite being on some pretty good teams, Rijo never topped fifteen wins in a season. Unless, of course, you count the 1990 postseason, in which Rijo added three wins to his 14 in the regular season. In the World Series of that year, Rijo started two games for 15.1 innings, and only allowed nine hits and one run en route to the WS MVP award. In Rijo’s apex in 1993, he posted career highs in innings (257.1), games started (36), strikeouts (227), and ERA+ (163). Two years later, elbow troubles ended his season, and kept Rijo out of the game for five years, before a up-and-down comeback with the Reds that lasted for 94 innings over two seasons.

Baseball America releases their Reds top 10 prospects list

2009-11-18T18:02:13Z

Baseball America releases their Reds top 10 prospects list

Guess who's #1? (hint: his name DOESN'T rhyme with Bonder Garbanzo)

This in an interesting list....thoughts?

If you have a BA subscription JJ Cooper, who made the list, is hosting a chat at 2:30 E.T.

Red Reposter - Where Were You When You Heard The Reds Re-signed Ramon Hernandez?

2009-11-18T16:15:17Z

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Ramon Hernandez will be back next year, but could that affect the contract status of guys like Jonny Gomes and Jared Burton?

Browse more photos »

Hall o' Famer Hal weighs in with his opinion on the Hernandez signing
and he does little to convince me. "Hernandez hit only .258 last year with five homers and 37 RBIs, but...(he) is the kind of guy I want around when I want to have fun and a guy I want to have around when I need somebody to watch my back." Sorry Hal, but this team needs a catcher, not Danny Glover. Hal also tries his hand at a bit o' statistical analysis. He discusses Jay Bruce's LD% and Aaron Harang's DER. It's actually pretty impressive for an old-timer.
Mark Sheldon wonders if the re-signing of Ramon Hernandez will prohibit the team from signing a LF
He says Jonny Gomes is the better choice over Laynce Nix (duh), but "you have to wonder if catcher Ramon Hernandez's re-signing on Monday for one year at $3 million takes away some of the dollars for left field." He says there are other in-house options, but gives the impression that Gomes would be the superior choice.
Matthew Pouliot likes the Hernandez signing as well
"He's 33 now and clearly on the decline, but if the Reds give him a fair amount of rest, he should be good for a dozen homers and his typical .330-.340 OBP."
The Fay has the Boss Man's word on the signing:
"It was an offseason priority. When you look at the alternatives, they’re not great. I think he and (Ryan) Hanigan are a good combination. Corky (Miller) is going to go to Triple-A that that gives us some depth."

Craig Calcaterra says the Blue Jays would seriously consider Brandon Phillips
if the Reds were to make him available. But --get this-- they would want him to play 3B. The very same 3B Scott Rolen used to man. He then quips on the Rolen deal, "given that the trade apparently filled no holes for either team and harmed one financially, I'm tempted to deem the Rolen trade the most pointless trade in recent memory." So this is one of the head-shakingest bits of internews I've read in a while.

Jack Moore at FanGraphs writes about the recent non-rumor of the possibility of the Reds trading Joey Votto
Walt Jocketty retorted, "Oh God, no!" when asked about it. Moore says, "With Votto producing as he has through his career, he is one of the best assets in the MLB. Jocketty’s response was right on the money." This gives me hope. Thanks to Dave from Luhvull for the FanShot.

Long time head athletic trainer Mark Mann resigned his post last week.
He has accepted a job with Morgan Stanley as a financial advisor(?). God speed, Mr. Mann!

FanGraphs lists the best baserunners according to BP's baserunning metrics
and Brandon Phillips comes in as one of the leaders of the pack, up there with such speedsters as Michael Bourn, Chone Figgins, Ichiro, and Dexter Fowler. Ride on, BeeP!

FanHouse takes a look at the Reds' offseason
They do a pretty good job reviewing the roster situation, though they inaccurately say that Joey Votto is arb-eligible for the first time this year. Here's the course of action they recommend:

"I think the Reds' biggest goal this offseason is to simultaneously dump one of their two overpaid starters without weakening the rotation. If money is a problem for them, they at least have a chance to fill their holes in the outfield and shortstop internally, but beyond Cueto and Bailey, there's not much their system has to offer in terms of pitching. The problem for them is that it won't be easy to find someone willing to take Arroyo or Harang without the Reds paying a lot of their salary, and so the amount of money freed up by a trade would probably be minimal."

Which is to say, we're probably boned.

Poll

How do you feel about the Hernandez signing?

How much is Jonny Gomes worth?

2009-11-18T12:15:09Z

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Jonny Gomes can mash the ball. But he may be the Reds' worst fielder, which cuts deeply into his value.

Browse more photos »

A lot of the talk about the Hernandez signing was about whether the money spent on Hernandez would affect our ability to sign Jonny Gomes. I thought it'd be worth it to try to estimate how much Jonny Gomes should actually be paid in 2010.

Gomes will be effectively in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2010. He's at 4+ years of service, despite having his first significant amount of playing time in 2005: too much time in the minors. This impacts his earning potential, as players do not make as much in arbitration hearings as they do on the open free agent market. The general guideline is that they make 40% of free agent salary in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year of arbitration, though some work has shown that these values actually underestimate actual totals because arbitration salaries haven't inflated as rapidly as free agent salaries. But we'll go with 60% for Jonny.

Hitting-wise, Jonny is above-average. CHONE's R150 is +4 RAA for him. Converted to wins per full season puts him at +0.5 WAA. CHONE's slightly more optimistic than ZiPS, but let's run with CHONE for now.

Gomes's problem is his fielding. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him at -3 runs in the corner outfield positions combined. However, he really only has about 1.5 seasons worth of playing time in the outfield to draw from (192 games started), which means sample size is an issue and thus we're seeing Gomes regressed a bit toward the mean. Furthermore, Zimmerman's data are based on total UZR data in each season, not UZR/150, which results in several fairly "average" low-inning stints entering into the calculations and pulling the numbers back toward zero. I'm just not sure that I trust that projection. So let's try something else.

His career UZR/150 in the corner outfield is -22 runs. Yikes. But again, it's based on a relatively small sample for this kind of stat, so we probably need to regress roughly 50% toward the mean. As an alternative, the Fan Scouting Report has him at 2.4 out of 5.0, which is well below the average of RFs of 3.2. If I'm doing this right (and I think I am), based on standard deviations of the Fans data and UZR data, you can equate 1 unit of FSR to ~17 runs, which would put Gomes at -14 runs below average in RF per full season (-1.6 wins). That seems in keeping with his all-hit-no-field reputation, so I'm going to go with that estimate. Nevertheless, I can see arguments for everything from -0.5 wins to -2 wins. It's a big source of uncertainty, and how you evaluate his overall value depends a great deal on how you evaluate his fielding.

Finally, Gomes is playing corner outfield positions, which have a 0.75 win/season penalty to reflect the poor fielding found at that position (it's easier to be an average-fielding left fielder than an average-fielding center fielder). Replacement is +2.25 wins per season.

So, all of that combined, per season, puts Gomes at 0.5 - 1.6 - 0.75 + 2.25 = 0.4 WAR player per full season.

Ouch. Fielding just kills his value.

The question, then, is playing time. CHONE projects him at 54% playing time, which isn't an unreasonable guess if you assume he'd platoon with Dickerson in left. On the other hand, if he starts all year, he might push toward 85% playing time. Here are estimated WAR totals, free agent dollar values, and 2nd-year arbitration dollar values for each of those two playing time estimates:

Playing Time	WAR	FA $	Arb $
54%	0.2	$1.0M	$0.6M
85%	0.3	$1.5M	$0.9M

If those seem like surprisingly low totals, remember a) he's not getting paid at free agent rates yet, and b) fielding is killing his value. He was worth 0.6 WAR according to fangraphs last season...but 2009 was his first positive WAR season since his "breakout" 2005 campaign.

Also, in terms of the salaries, keep in mind that these are estimated fair market values for him. The market, and probably especially the arbitration market, hasn't completely corrected for bad fielding players yet. Arbitration debates, as I understand them, are still largely settled with AVG/HR/RBI. So it may be that he'd get more than that in arbitration--perhaps at least the $1.3M he made in 2008. Nevertheless, I think this is a pretty good estimate of what he should be paid in 2010.

Finally, I want to emphasize that this estimate is hugely contingent on how you evaluate his fielding. Go with the Zimmerman UZR projections and you add a full win (~$4 M) to his FA salary. Go with his straight-up career corner outfield UZR/150, and he's a replacement player. What do you folks think?

The Greatest Reds: #46 - #43

2009-11-17T17:00:14Z

46. Joe Nuxhall

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1944, 1952-60, 1962-66	SP, RP	28	85	86
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1955	Never
2%	0%	98%	1955	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1955, 1956	Shutouts – 1955		-3rd in career strikeouts -3rd in single season K/BB ratio (1963) -4th in career games pitched -9th in career wins -10th in career shutouts

You know about the MLB debut at 15 years of age, and you experienced the radio broadcasts, but often glossed over with Nuxhall is a long and effective career, fashioning a 130-109 record over 15 seasons as a Red. While rarely an ace (only topping 200 IP thrice), Nuxhall was flexible and consistent—he routinely split time between the bullpen and the rotation, and was generally producing numbers consistent with his career (as a Red) 104 ERA+. Additionally, his bat was potent (for a pitcher), hitting 15 career dingers. Also worth remembering with Nuxhall’s numbers is the context of the era: although he only struck out 5.3 batters per 9 innings, he finished five times in the NL K/9 top ten. In his best season, Nuxhall pitched 257 innings over 50 games (33 starts), with a 17-12 record and a 3.47 ERA (120 ERA+). Nuxhall spent 1961 with the KC Athletics, and part of 1962 with the Los Angeles Angels, before returning to the Reds for the remainder of his career.

45. Leo Cardenas

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1960-1968	SS	45	57	46
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1965	Never
53%	47%	0%	1965	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Gold Glove – 1965 All Star – 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968	Intentional Walks – 1965, 1966		-25th in career doubles -26th in career hits -36th in career home runs -39th in career RBI -39th in career walks

A sure-handed shortstop, who was maddeningly inconsistent with the bat, Cardenas broke through into the majors as a 21 year old midway through the 1960 season. During the following season’s pennant run, Cardenas was a part-time player who hit for a 119 OPS+. Thinking they had a potential superstar on their hands, the Reds made full-time room for Cardenas by moving Eddie Kasko to 3rd base. For their efforts, Cardenas rewarded the Reds with a solid season, followed by a complete bust of a year in 1963, with a year-over-year batting average drop of almost 60 points. Chico was known to hit for power (20 home runs in 1966), but you couldn’t really depend on it (2 home runs in 1967). During his peak 1965 season, Cardenas hit 287/355/431 (115 OPS+), while picking up a Gold Glove award. After disappointing seasons in 1967/68, Cardenas was traded to the Twins for Jim Merritt, who went on to post a 20-win season for the Reds in 1970.

44. Ted Breitenstein

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1897-1900	SP	75	19	41
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1897	1897
6%	0%	94%	1897	1897
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		-4th in career home runs per inning -17th in career W-L percentage -29th in career ERA+ -34th in career wins -38th in career innings pitched

Over baseball’s long history, no subset of players has been able to statistically dominate a season like the 19th century pitchers, due to the shorter rotations of the time and the consequential high inning totals. During most of the 1890’s Ted Breitenstein was the workhorse for the St. Louis Browns, twice breaking the 400 IP barrier, and once losing 30 games. The Browns sold him to Cincinnati after the 1896 season, and Breitenstein responded with a great season: 23-12, 3.62 ERA (126 ERA+), 320.1 IP. The following season was just a small notch worse: 20-14, 3.42 ERA (112 ERA+), 315.2 IP—including a no-hitter. As was the case with many pitchers in that day, the arm could only take so much: a couple more solid seasons at around 200 innings each, and then 15 more innings with St. Louis again in 1901, and he was done.

43. Tony Mullane

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1890-1893	SP	73	17	40
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1890	Never
9%	2%	89%	1890	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Hits Per Inning – 1892		-1st in career complete games -2nd in career wins -11th in career strikeouts -24th in career hits per inning -27th in career ERA

Coincidentally, Mullane’s various rankings match very closely with the preceding player (Breitenstein). Two major differences exist, however. First, Mullane’s career with the Red Stockings began in 1886, and if these rankings incorporated stats accumulated in the American Association, Mullane might be a top-10 player, winning over 100 games and throwing over 1500 innings in that pre-NL era. Secondly, Mullane was an all-around player, who frequently played in the field when he wasn’t pitching. In 1890, Mullane started 21 games on the mound, and pitched in four other games, totaling a 12-10 record, with a 2.24 ERA (161 ERA+) in 209 innings. Additionally, Mullane played in 56 other games, playing every position except second base and catcher. As a hitter that year, Mullane hit 276/375/364 (114 OPS+) in 331 plate appearances. The following season, Mullane’s bat seemed to disintegrate, but he compensated by throwing 426.1 innings. Another solid season and a half for the ambidextrous thrower awaited before being traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Piggy Ward.

More on the Hernandez signing

2009-11-17T01:30:11Z

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

As long as he's catching and not playing first base, Hernandez should provide decent value to the Reds in 2010.

Browse more photos »

Below is an attempt to value Ramon Hernandez properties (here's Slyde's original article on the signing from this afternoon):

Hitting: CHONE has Hernandez as a -9 RAA hitter per 150G. ZiPS is similar in its projection. Given that Hernandez has been a starter the last many years, I think we can treat CHONE's projected playing time as reasonable guesstimate given that he's an aging catcher who now has an injury history. So, in 54% playing time (380 PA's; Hanigan should still get to play), converted to wins, that puts him at 0.6 wins below average as a hitter.

Fielding: Based on SB/CS/WP/PB/E rates (methods and 2007 data here), I have him at +3 runs this past season, -8 runs in 2008, and +0 in 2007. A 5/4/3 weighted average those numbers puts him at -1 RAA behind the plate. Fan Scouting Report gives him an overall rating of 3.2, which is an average rating for catchers. Given all of this, I think we can be confident in calling him a dead-on average fielding catcher.

Catching position adjustment is +1.25 wins/season, and replacement offset is +2.25 wins/season, which combined and pro-rated, adds 1.9 wins to his total. So:

2010 Projected Value

Hitting: -0.6 wins

Fielding: +0 wins

Position adjustment + replacement: +1.9 wins

Total: 1.3 wins above replacement in 2010.

For 2011, we can apply a half-win of aging (might be generous), and put him at +0.8 wins above average.

Valuing wins is tricky business given the economic environment. But if we assume that free agent salaries this offseason will be close to where they were the last three offseasons--about $4.4 per WAR--then this would put Hernandez's value at:

2010: $5.7 million

2011: $3.5 million

Sheldon reports he signed for $3 million this year and $3.25 million in 2011 if he appears in 74% of Reds games next year (which is well above his projected playing time). You can add $1 million to his contract for 2010 though, because the Reds paid a $1M buyout to get out of the last contract. Even so,this looks like a good deal for the Reds, assuming no sudden old-catcher-falling-off-a-cliff syndrome....though maybe that last concern is why the deal is apparently a bit discounted for 2010.

Update: CTrent reports that the buyout is actually a part of the $3 million. That pushes this deal further into the "decent little bargain" territory.

Regarding Hanigan: his offensive projection is roughly equal to Hernandez, and defensively he rates as an elite defensive catcher. Hanigan should be the starter in this case. He probably won't be, but again, I think Hernandez is likely to miss enough time next year that Hanigan will still play quite a bit. Hope so, anyway.

The Greatest Reds: #50 - #47

2009-11-16T19:00:35Z

50. Ewell Blackwell

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1942, 1946-52	SP, RP	60	30	49
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1947	1947, 1950, 1951
2%	0%	98%	1947	1947, 1950, 1951
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951	Shutouts – 1946 Strikeout/Walk Ratio – 1946, 1947 Wins – 1947 Strikeouts – 1947 Strikeouts Per Inning – 1947, 1950 Complete Games – 1947 Hits Per Inning – 1950		-13th in career hits per inning -16th in career ERA+ -16th in career shutouts -17th in career strikeouts -27th in career wins

Sometimes, the quantitative data doesn’t match up with the qualitative: Blackwell was named to the All-Star team six consecutive seasons with the Reds, and was once referred to by Ralph Kiner as the best RH pitcher who ever lived. However, during that six-year stretch were a couple of pretty bad years (1948-1949: combined 12-14, 4.43 ERA, 90 ERA+, split as a starter and reliever). His good years were spectacular: In 1947, The Whip went 22-8, with a 2.47 ERA (166 ERA+), and 193 K in 273 innings. 1950 was a runner-up not to be ashamed of: 17-15, 2.97 ERA (142 ERA+), and 188 K in 261 innings. In 1952, at age 29, Blackwell basically fell apart and was traded away, but only managed three additional victories before the end of his career.

49. Lee May

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1965-1971	1B	65	38	35
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1969	Never
89%	11%	0%	1969	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1969, 1971	N/A		-9th in career slugging percentage -15th in career home runs -21st in career OPS+ -31st in career RBI -38th in career doubles

We read about the trade with the benefit of hindsight and see it as the catalyst for the Big Red Machine dynasty (after the 1971 season, the Reds traded Lee May, Tommy Helms, and Jimmy Stewart for Ed Armbrister, Jack Billingam, Cesar Geronimo, Denis Menke, and Joe Morgan), but one imagines that the trade at the time was less than popular: Lee May was a 28 year old slugger and the best hitter on the team—in fact he had the 6th best OPS+ in the NL in 1971, while Helms was the reigning Gold Glove 2nd baseman. On the flip side, Joe Morgan had not yet turned into Super Joe. Nonetheless, the trade was made…and the rest was history. For May’s part, his career was nowhere near history: he was a productive hitter with the Astros and Orioles through the remainder of the 70’s. As for his time with the Reds, he had two offensive calling cards: a tremendous power hitter, finishing in the NL top 10 in HR in 1969, 1970, and 1971; and a severe shortcoming when it came to taking a walk, compiling just 178 walks in over 3000 plate appearances with the Reds. His composite batting line with Cincinnati was 274/321/490 (123 OPS+).

48. Ken Griffey, Jr

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
2000-2008	CF, RF	39	57	70
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2000	2000
84%	16%	0%	2000	2000
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 2000, 2004, 2007	N/A		-4th in career slugging percentage -7th in career home runs -15th in career walks -23rd in career RBI -29th in career runs scored

Junior arrived in Cincinnati to much fanfare in February, 2000—a still relatively young superstar being added to a team that had won 96 games the year before. At the time, Griffey was famously predicted to break Hank Aaron’s career home run mark in a Reds uniform. Instead, Griffey was betrayed time and again by his ever-brittle legs: from 2001 through 2006, Junior never appeared in more than 128 games, and three of those seasons, he didn’t even play in as many as 85 games. So, having taken 9 years to effectively play six full seasons, Griffey is paradoxically a top-50 Red: his tenure can be only be seen as a disappointment, but it was still marked with periodic brilliance, as seen in his 40-HR, 133 OPS+ season of 2000, as well as his part-time outputs in 2003 and 2005, where he put up OPS+ marks of 145 and 144, respectively. Still, as good as those final two OPS+ marks were, they were still lower than Griffey’s average OPS+ in Seattle. In mid-2008, Griffey was traded to the White Sox, which ultimately allowed him to experience post-season play, something that had evaded him in Cincinnati.

47. Mario Soto

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1977-1988	SP, RP	49	50	46
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1983	1982, 1983, 1984
1%	0%	99%	1983	1982, 1983, 1984
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1982, 1983, 1984	Strikeouts Per Inning – 1980, 1982 Hits Per Inning – 1980 Games Started – 1981 WHIP – 1982 Strikeout/Walk Ratio – 1982 Complete Games – 1983, 1984		-1st in career hits per inning -2nd in career strikeouts -6th in career strikeouts per inning -9th in career K/BB ratio -18th in career wins

From 1980 to 1985, Soto was baseball’s pre-eminent strikeout thrower, summing 1,063 K’s over those six seasons. In the middle of that stretch (1982 and 1983), Soto was about as good a pitcher as there was in baseball: 1982 saw a 14-13 record (the team went 61-101), with a 2.79 ERA (132 ERA+) and 274 K in 257.2 innings. The following year, Soto was better: 17-13, 2.70 ERA (140 ERA+), and 242 K in 273.2 innings. Soto then had two more heavy workload years of lesser effectiveness, and then his final three seasons only produced 223.2 innings cumulatively, less than a typical peak season. Despite his greatness, Soto had a major gopher-ball weakness, three times leading the NL in home runs allowed. Nonetheless, Soto remains statistically the most stingy Red in terms of allowing a hit, perhaps due in large part to his notoriously deceptive circle-change. After the Reds released Soto during the 1988 season, the Dodgers signed him as a free agent, but he mercifully never appeared in Dodger blue.

Reds Re-sign Ramon Hernandez to a One-year Deal

2009-11-16T16:19:32Z

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Ramon Hernandez is re-signed by the Reds. Will he be the everyday catcher?

Browse more photos »

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have re-signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal. Rosenthal says the deal has a vesting option for 2011 if Hernandez plays 120 games in 2010. He played in 81 games last season and has played in 120 or more games just twice in the last 6 seasons. No other details have been released on the terms yet.

The Reds traded Ryan Freel and prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring to the Orioles last season for Hernandez. He came to the Reds and batted .258/.336/.362 in 331 plate appearances last season, which is very similar to the .258/.319/.395 he posted in the previous two seasons combined with the Orioles. It shouldn't be a surprise then that his projections fall in a similar category. CHONE has Hernandez at .253/.322/.387 and ZiPS has him posting a .255/.324/.385 line. Neither line is all that impressive.

I'm optimistic that given the budget concerns, the Reds haven't overpaid on this deal. However, given the $8.5 million option that the Reds had to decline prior to signing Hernandez, I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar amount is more than any of us would have given to him.

The real key though is that Hernandez's playing time needs to be balanced with Ryan Hanigan. Neither probably deserves the title of everyday catcher, but I think together they could make a decent platoon. They're not going to hit a ton, but defensively they are solid and I think the Reds could do much worse at the catcher position.

UPDATE: Mark Sheldon has the details on Twitter:

Terms on R. Hernandez signing: $3M for 2010 and $3.250M for vesting option in 2011 that kicks in with 120 games played.

Monday Morning Quiz: Reds Seasonal Stolen Base Leaders

2009-11-16T14:05:35Z

Monday Morning Quiz: Reds Seasonal Stolen Base Leaders

Today's quiz is easy compared to the last couple of quizzes. This is mainly because there are a lot of repeats in this category over the last 30 years. All you need to know is 12 names to get all 30 years right. So, in order to make it a little more difficult, I have forced you to answer the questions in order. Actually, you can skip an answer if you don't know it, but you won't get credit for guessing a name once and having it fill in multiple years.

Good luck! And stay out of the comments section if you don't want to see spoilers!

CHONE's projections for hitters for 2010 are out

2009-11-15T22:02:40Z

CHONE's projections for hitters for 2010 are out

Could the Reds really be better off non-tendering Jonny Gomes, saving the few million bucks, and going with Wladimir Balentien instead? Check 'em out and tell me what you think.

Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections

2009-11-15T01:24:24Z

Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections

Jeff Zimmerman posted his 2010 UZR projections. I haven't completely worked through his methodology, but the results seem pretty reasonable. Here are the main Reds of interest:

Joey Votto: +2
Brandon Phillips: +7
Paul Janish: +4 (sample size may pull him down a bit)
Scott Rolen: +7

Chris Dickerson: +1 in CF, +1 in LF (usually a 10-run difference per season between those positions...)
Jonny Gomes: -3 in RF, -1 in LF (I'm surprised it's not worse)
Drew Stubbs: +2 (sample pulls him down a lot, appropriately)
Willy Taveras: +3
Jay Bruce: +1 (2009 data were better than 2008)

That, folks, is a fine fielding team.

Farmers Only: Winter League Update and some notes

2009-11-13T19:00:45Z

Chris Heisey loves the Arizona air. Does that bode will for his chances in spring training?

View full size photo »

Many of you thought the Arizona Fall League ended with the "Rising Stars" game last weekend, but it actually goes until the end of next week, and our boys in 'zona have just kept on representin'. This list isn't exhaustive, I've only put up stats, through yesterday, of the players of interest playing in fall/winter leagues. (If you really want to know how Lew Ford is doing in Venezuela you can look it up)

Arizona Fall League	PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Yonder Alonso	75	.290	.333	.406	2	6	8
Chris Heisey	88	.308	.400	.641	5	10	20
Zack Cozart	55	.340	.393	.560	2	5	9
Venezuelan Winter League
Danny Dorn	60	.250	.400	.500	4	8	14
Miguel Rojas	57	.288	.345	.346	0	5	10
Dominican Winter League
Juan Francisco	76	.227	.325	.455	3	10	20
Kevin Barker	84	.329	.409	.421	1	8	15
Mexican League
Adam Rosales	128	.300	.400	.427	2	18	11
Arizona Pitchers	IP	ERA	K	BB	H	HR	AVG
Mike Leake	11.2	2.31	9	2	17	0	.340
Brad Boxberger	11.1	8.74	11	6	12	2	.286
Sean Watson	10.2	8.44	12	6	20	2	.377
Logan Ondrusek	9.2	10.24	8	1	19	4	.388

Dominican League
Ben Jukich	15.2	2.87	12	5	20	1	.323
Enerio Del Rosario	11.2	2.31	6	2	10	0	.222
Sam LeCure	7.1	8.59	6	5	12	0	.353

Zack Cozart hasn't been in a game since last week and isn't listed on the Peoria Saguaros roster anymore. I can't tell if he's injured or just decided he wanted to go home.
Todd Frazier starts play in the Puerto Rican League next week. I'm giddy.
Please note the K/BB ratio for Francisco. I know it's only the DWL, but the kid is showing signs of being able to take a walk.
I'm really intrigued by Del Rosario. He flew up through the system this season, and ended the year in AAA. His groundball to flyball ratio was 3.23 during the season and is 2.22 in the DWL. Sounds like a good fit for GABP.
It's still a small sample size, but Chris Heisey keeps making a case for himself.
Darnell McDonald is tearin' up Mexico too, but since he's not on the 40 man roster anymore I didn't feel compelled to include him. Katie Couric is happy about this.

The Greatest Reds: #55 - #51

2009-11-13T17:00:37Z

55. Reggie Sanders

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1991-1998	RF, CF	51	57	58
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1995	Never
83%	17%	0%	1995	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1995	N/A		-11th in career slugging percentage -17th in career home runs -19th in career stolen bases -32nd in career runs scored -34th in career RBI

An unmistakable talent hindered by injuries, and one unfortunate month. Reggie Sanders was drafted by the Reds in 1987, made his debut in 1991, and put together a strong rookie season in 1992—finishing 4th in Rookie of the Year voting with a 128 OPS+ as a centerfielder. Sanders never really had a bad year with the Reds, but he also never played more than 138 games—and in both 1996 and 1997 he missed nearly half of each season. 1995 was Sanders’s career year: for the only time in his career Sanders finished in the top ten in runs (91, in a strike-shortened year), RBI (99), Home Runs (28), Doubles (36), Walks (69), and OPS+ (154). In the playoffs, however, he struck out an incredible 19 times in just seven games. Before the 1999 season, Sanders was traded for—in essence—Greg Vaughn, a much-lauded deal, despite Sanders’s seemingly better play that year.

54. Roy McMillan

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1951-1960	SS	39	85	66
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1956	Never
40%	60%	0%	1956	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Gold Glove – 1957, 1958, 1959 All Star – 1956, 1957	Sacrifice Hits – 1954		-18th in career walks -25th in career hits -27th in career doubles -34th in career runs scored -44th in career RBI

The Gold Glove award was introduced in 1957, and was not split by league. One award was given for shortstops, and McMillan—then an established 27-year-old—won it. The next year, the awards were bifurcated into NL and AL, and McMillan won a couple more. Indeed, his fielding must have been legendary: five separate times in his career McMillan received MVP-ballot support, despite his lifetime OPS+ of 72. In his best year of 1956, his hitting was OK for a shortstop: 263/366/344 (OPS+ of 89), but according to range factor, he made roughly 3 extra plays out of every 4 games as compared to the average SS, all while putting up a fielding percentage 14 points higher than league average. After ten full years with the Reds, McMillan was traded to the Braves for pitcher Joey Jay, who twice won 20 games as a Red.

53. Johnny Vander Meer

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1937-43, 1946-49	SP, RP	36	57	93
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1942	1948
1%	0%	99%	1942	1948
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
TSN Player of Year – 1938 All Star – 1938, 1939, 1942, 1943	Hits Per Inning – 1938, 1941 Strikeouts – 1941, 1942, 1943 Strikeouts Per Inning – 1941, 1942, 1943 Games Started – 1943		-3rd in career shutouts -4th in career strikeouts -5th in career hits per inning -7th in career innings pitched -13th in career wins

Vander Meer’s career can be neatly split into four eras: Era 1 (1937-1938) belonged to a wild and unpredictable pitcher—including two magical nights in June of 1938 in which no batter managed a hit off him. Era 2 (1939-1940) belonged to a part-time and ineffective pitcher who contributed little to a pair of pennant winners. Era 3 (1941-1943) belonged to a dominant pitcher with the best stuff in the game. In the war-depleted National League, Vander Meer twice posted the 4th best ERA+, and routinely led in strikeouts, while finishing high in both innings and wins. Era 4 (1946-1949) came after a two-year service to the country’s war efforts. In this era, Vander Meer was a steady and average arm on a bad team—getting credit as the best player on the 64-89 1948 team, despite an unremarkable ERA+ of 115.

52. Bob Bescher

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1908-1913	LF	56	57	38
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1912	1912, 1913
85%	15%	0%	1912	1912, 1913
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Stolen Bases – 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912 Plate Appearances – 1911 Runs Scored – 1912 Walks – 1913		-7th in career stolen bases -21st in career on-base percentage -21st in career walks -26th in career triples -35th in career runs scored

Not particularly great with the bat and decidedly weak glove in Left Field, Bescher was nonetheless a very strong player for two simple reasons: he knew how to take a walk (4 straight times finishing in the top-6 in the NL from 1910-13), and when he got on base, there was none better at taking an extra one (4 straight times leading the league). His 81 steals in 1911 stood as a post-1900 single-season NL mark that lasted until Maury Wills stole 104 bases in 1962. Also of note with Bescher was his remarkable consistency: his year-by-year OPS+ marks during his full-time play as a Red were: 102, 103, 114, 115, and 108.

51. Jake Daubert

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1919-1924	1B	60	41	41
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1920	1922
87%	13%	0%	1920	1922
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Sacrifice Hits – 1919 Triples – 1922		-2nd in career sacrifice hits -9th in career triples -20th in career batting average -33rd in career hits -36th in career runs scored

Unquestionably one of the best players in the NL in the early part of his career with Brooklyn, Daubert was acquired by the Reds prior to the 1919 season—allowing the team to get rid of first baseman Hal Chase, who had been accused of throwing a game the year before. Daubert filled the role admirably, leading the league in sacrifice hits and supplying a league average bat to the World Champion team. As his career dwindled, Daubert had two more vintage seasons (127 OPS+ in 1920, 129 OPS+ in 1922) interspersed with the typical fading of a long career. In 1924, at age 40, Daubert became very ill, returned to the team for the final home game of the year, then had an appendectomy. He died a week later due to complications from the surgery.

Red Reposter - GM Meetings Day 2: We still don't have Hanley Ramirez

2009-11-12T20:36:27Z

Obama may not have been able to deliver Chicago the Olympics, but at least his hometown hosted the MLB Winter Meetings in his first year in office. Not much activity thus far, but here are some rumblings:

Per a Buster Olney Tweet (via mlbtraderumors.com), the Reds are shopping Coco hard. Olney's heard from other teams that the Reds would love to move closer Francisco Cordero. Of course, closers are plentiful and Cordero is set to earn $25MM over the next two years. The 25M does not include the 12M team option for 2012. As Coco has a no-trade clause, it's very possible that he would ask that the receiving team pick that up in exchange for waiving the clause. With other relievers available on the free agent market, I think he will be tough to move.
John Heyman also reports that the Reds are big sellers, and list Coco, Brandon Phillips, and Bronson Arroyo as bait (HT to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - see his FanPost for a good writeup of the Reds' contractual obligations going forward). Heyman also mentions that Griffey will return to Seattle next year for 2M plus incentives.
The Reds did just save a little money - maybe a million or so - when Micah Owings was found to have missed Super 2 status on a tiebreaker. He had the same amount of service time as the Cubs' Mike Fontenot and the Orioles' Adam Jones, but Fontenot was awarded Super 2 because he had more service time in the immediately preceding season (2009). Super 2 helps prevent teams from playing the service clock game by allowing 70% (ed: meant 17%) of players in their third year qualify for arbitration. They otherwise receive whatever the club dictates, which is usually close to the leage minimum.
If you didn't see it, the NL Gold Gloves were announced yesterday. No Reds were named, meaning that Brandon Phillips lost his title (to Orlando Hudson). Chase Utley has a pretty good case for the 2B GG as well. The Silver Sluggers will be named tonight at 7 on the MLB Network.
The Hardball Times has a writeup about the pitchers in the Arizona Fall League, including or own Mike Leake: Mike Leake is a man of many arm angles. It makes pitch classification a little bit complicated, which I suspect hitters will also attest to. There's also some PitchFX data posted that shows Leake's curve has a pretty good drop.

The Greatest Reds: #60 - #56

2009-11-12T17:00:29Z

60. Bubbles Hargrave

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1921-1928	C	51	69	64
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1923	Never
73%	27%	0%	1923	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Hit By Pitch – 1923 Batting Average – 1926		-4th in career batting average -11th in career OPS -23rd in career triples -42nd in career doubles -50th in career RBI

After several years split between major and minor league time as a very weak-hitting catcher, the light turned on as a 26-year-old playing for St. Paul of the American Association. Hargrave proved the worth of his bat there in two consecutive seasons and the Reds snapped him up, and continued his path towards becoming a great-hitting catcher, including two seasons just around a 150 OPS+. Over his eight seasons with the Reds, Hargrave averaged 96 games played, with a 122 OPS+.

59. Ken Raffensberger

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1947-1954	SP, RP	56	64	49
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1952	1949
0%	0%	100%	1952	1949
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Shutouts – 1949, 1952 Games Started – 1949 Walks Per Inning – 1950, 1951 WHIP – 1951		-4th in career shutouts -7th in career walks per inning -22nd in career innings pitched -23rd in career wins -33rd in career strikeouts

In June of 1947, the Phillies and Reds swapped a pair of backup catchers nearing the end of their careers. And the Phils threw in Raffensberger—at that point a 29-year-old journeyman, junkballing pitcher who had a career ERA that was around league average, but a W-L record that was awful—consistent with that of his team. In the ’47 season, Raffensberger had a dreadful first half, so he was shipped off…and became a workhorse #1 pitcher for a team that was also terrible (Raffensberger was a full-time Red in six full seasons…and the Reds never once won as many as 70 games in that stretch). A control pitcher who routinely finished in the top ten in innings pitched, Raffensberger barely topped 500 strikeouts in almost 1500 innings with the Reds. He finished 93 of the 205 games he started as a Red, and despite a 112 ERA+ in Cincy, only had a record of 89-99.

58. Bobby Tolan

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1969-70, 1972-73	CF	85	22	55
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1970	Never
78%	22%	0%	1970	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Hutch Award – 1972	Stolen Bases – 1970		-9th in single season hit by pitch (1969) -25th in career sacrifice flies -30th in career stolen bases -44th in career batting average -48th in career home runs

After shrewdly trading Vada Pinson for Tolan and Wayne Granger prior to the 1969 season, the Reds had a clear superstar on their hands: a defensive hawk who put up OPS+ seasons of 124 and 126 in 1969 and 1970, respectively—Tolan’s age 23 and 24 years. A Brock2 projection after the 1970 season would have shown rough career estimates of 250 HR, 2700 hits, and 1400 runs scored. Instead, Tolan blew out his achilles tendon in that offseason playing basketball and missed all of 1971. While he came back for a more-than-respectable 1972 season, his ’73 was awful, and his career with the Reds was done—hastened by his own squabbles with management. We’ll never truly know if his career would have looked considerably different had he not missed that crucial age-25 season. We do know that his career was "supposed" to turn out better than 86 HR, 1121 hits, and 572 runs.

57. Arlie Latham

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1890-1895	3B	67	50	45
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1891	1891
72%	28%	0%	1891	1891
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	N/A		-5th in career stolen bases -7th in single season runs scored (1894) -25th in career runs scored -29th in career on-base percentage -36th in career walks

Latham was a volatile personality, known for setting lit firecrackers on the field and letting ground balls run past him as he stood still without making an attempt to catch them. Fortunately for the Reds, Latham was also known for running wild on the bases, totaling 337 steals in just 696 games with Cincy, including a career high of 87 in 1891. That year, despite his pedestrian batting average of .272, Latham finished 9th in the NL in walks—leading to a team high 119 runs scored and an OPS+ of 120.

56. Bob Purkey

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1958-1964	SP	55	64	49
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1962	Never
0%	0%	100%	1962	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1958, 1961 (2), 1962 (2)	W-L Percentage – 1962		-7th in single season W-L percentage (1962) -10th in career walks per inning -17th in career wins -22nd in career strikeouts -48th in career ERA

A knuckleballer with excellent control, Purkey was a consistent innings-eater (from 1958 to 1962, Purkey averaged over 250 innings per year), who was good enough to be a solid contributor to a pennant winner (#3 starter in 1961), and had one great season in him (1962: 23-5, 288.1 IP, 2.81 ERA, 143 ERA+, 64 BB, 141 K) that netted him a 3rd place finish in the ML Cy Young Award voting (behind some scrub named "Drysdale"). While Purkey was involved with two trades involving the Reds, the timing for Cincy was impeccable (he managed 103 of his 129 career victories with the club).