Red Reporter

The Anti-Greats: Day 2

2010-02-09T17:00:18Z

Position: SP

Played for the Reds: 2002-2003

Why he's here: The Reds reached the 2002 all-star break with a sense of opportunity: they were five games over .500, and sat just two games back of the St. Louis Cardinals. As it turned out, the team's success was mostly an illusion, but give the front office credit for identifying just how weak their patchwork starting rotation was. Then take away all those credits and tack on a few demerits for their pursuit of Ryan Dempster, who to that point had put together one good year, and a handful of bad ones. The Reds traded Juan Encarnacion, Wilton Guerrero and Ryan Snare for Dempster, who proceeded to post a 6.19 ERA for the Reds over the 2^nd half of the year. He wasn't the reason the Reds finished 2002 six games under .500, staring up at a 19 game chasm between them and the Cards, as the team somehow won 7 of Dempster's 15 starts that year. The next year, Dempster managed to pitch worse: 3-7, 6.54 ERA (63 ERA+) in 115.2 innings. Mercifully released by the Reds after 2003, Dempster signed with the Cubs where he found something approaching success as a closer, and then inexplicably morphed into a very good starting pitcher in 2008.

Role on the team: #2 Starting pitcher

Name: Leo Durocher

Position: SS

Played for the Reds: 1930-1933

Why he's here: The Reds are such a great franchise, even their all-time worst team is littered with hall of famers! Leo the Lip was claimed off waivers by the Reds prior to the 1930 season, and made him their starting shortstop for the next three-plus seasons. Looking back, it's remarkable that the team put up with him that long. In fact, Durocher's unique combination of playing time and playing quality earns my vote for The Worst Player in Reds History. Consider: In three full seasons, plus about a month in 1933, Durocher came to the plate over 1300 times. He failed to drive in 100 runs in that span, and barely scored 100 runs. His cumulative batting line of .227/.275/.303 equaled a 54 OPS+. He stole three bases. His defense, which basically constituted all of his value, was no better than average. His best moment came on May 7, 1933, when Durocher was one of three players traded to the Cardinals for a three man package that included Paul Derringer (#22 all-time Red).

Role on the team: Starting shortstop, manager

Name: Jack Fisher

Position: RP

Played for the Reds: 1969

Why he's here: Four of the players on this mythical team have just one season of tenure with the Reds, and three of those four are relief pitchers, speaking perhaps to the sheer volatility of the position. Prior to the 1969 season, the Reds targeted "Fat Jack" Fisher, and traded a couple of spare parts to the White Sox for Fisher, who had been a valuable swing pitcher for the South-Siders in '68. The Reds used him in a similar role in 1969, although they should not have. Fisher started 15 games, and made 19 appearances out of the bullpen. As a reliever, Fisher was bad, but not dreadful: a 4.36 ERA in 43.1 innings, with a WHIP of 1.18. As a starter, he was off the charts: a 3-4 record with a 6.20 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. He averaged fewer than 5 innings pitched per start, and was almost certainly not helped by the lack of consistency in his role: he made at least one start in every month but July, and two of his starts were with more than 5 days rest, while three of his starts came off just 1 or 2 days rest. In a fitting trade after the 1969 season, neither Fisher nor the two players received from the Angels ever played in the majors again.

Role on the team: Long reliever

Name: Rich Gale

Position: RP

Played for the Reds: 1983

Why he's here: The Reds received Rich Gale from the Giants, in exchange for Mike Vail-who wasn't too far from making this ill-fated team on his own merits. So in that sense, garbage in/garbage out. Gale was in the midst of a precipitous career slide: he finished 4^th in Rookie of the Year voting with the Royals in 1978 as a starting pitcher with a 125 ERA+. He had a decent season in 1980, but was otherwise sub-par. The '83 Reds had designs on Gale being in their rotation, but a 9.19 ERA as a started scrapped those plans by Memorial Day. When he was off, the entire stadium, plus most of the surrounding county knew it: Gale was the losing pitcher of record six times in 1983, five of which came while as a starter. In those six appearances, Gale logged just 19 innings, and allowed 34 runs (32 of which were earned). To his credit, Gale settle down quite a bit as a reliever, with a 4.01 ERA in 58.1 innings. Still, the damage was done, and his 65 ERA+ for the year cemented his place on this team.

Role on the team: Relief pitcher

Name: Joey Hamilton

Position: RP, SP

Played for the Reds: 2001-2003

Why he's here: Hamilton, for his career, was the very definition of an average starting pitcher: he won one more game than he lost, and his career ERA+ was 94. His career trajectory, were it to be plotted on a graph, would look more or less like a straight line, in a diagonal path from upper left to lower right. The portion of his career spent with the Reds, as you may have guessed, occupies that lower right section of the graph. Dumped by the Blue Jays late in the 2001 campaign, the Reds signed Hamilton on the cheap for the remainder of the season, and he wasn't good...but it was just four starts. For 2002, Hamilton was awarded the honor of Opening Day pitcher, and for a solid month, he justified the team's faith, holding a 2.65 ERA on May 1. Two months later, his ERA had risen two full runs, and the real painful stretch hadn't even happened yet. Hamilton started on July 2, pitched 4 innings and gave up 5 runs. Five days later, five innings, five more runs, and a trip to the disable list. When he came back on August 7^th, he gave up 7 runs, and was pulled in the 5^th. An ERA increase of 0.90 in just three starts. Relegated to the pen thereafter, Hamilton did little to bring down his numbers over the last couple months. In 2003, Hamilton surrendered 15 runs in 10.2 innings, and his career was over.

Role on the team: Long reliever, spot starter

RR Community Prospect Rankings: The Final List

2010-02-09T12:00:20Z

It's been a long process, but your prospect list for 2010 is finally in the books. Here it is, in all of its glory, and for comparison, nyc and I created our own lists as well that we'll post here as well. The 5 honorable mention spots are who got the most votes that didn't make the final list, over the last 4 days of voting.

Red Reporter

1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Todd Frazier
3. Yonder Alonso
4. Mike Leake
5. Chris Heisey
6. Juan Francisco
7. Travis Wood
8. Yorman Rodriguez
9. Zack Cozart
10. Matt Maloney
11. Chris Valaika
12. Brad Boxberger
13. Neftali Soto
14. Devin Mesoraco
15. Billy Hamilton
16. J.C. Sulbaran
17. Enerio Del Rosario
18. Matt Klinker
19. Daniel Tuttle
20. Juan Duran
21. Donnie Joseph
22. Logan Ondrusek
23. Daniel Dorn
24. Josh Fellhauer
25. Sam LeCure

Honorable Mention:
Juan Silva
Miguel Rojas
D.D. Gregorius
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
Mark Serrano

nycredsfan

1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Yonder Alonso
3. Todd Frazier
4. Mike Leake
5. Chris Heisey
6. Yorman Rodriguez
7. Juan Francisco
8. Travis Wood
9. Zack Cozart
10. Brad Boxberger
11. Matt Maloney
12. Neftali Soto
13. Devin Mesoraco
14. Matt Klinker
15. Chris Valaika
16. Donnie Joseph
17. Josh Fellhauer
18. Logan Ondrusek
19. Billy Hamilton
20. Enerio Del Rosario
21. Juan Silva
22. D.D. Gregorius
23. Daniel Tuttle
24. J.C. Sulbaran
25. Miguel Rojas

Honorable Mention:
Mark Serrano
Juan Duran
Sam LeCure
Henry Rodriguez
Daniel Dorn

BK

1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Yonder Alonso
3. Todd Frazier
4. Chris Heisey
5. Mike Leake
6. Travis Wood
7. Zack Cozart
8. Juan Francisco
9. Brad Boxberger
10. Yorman Rodriguez
11. Matt Klinker
12. Neftali Soto
13. Enerio Del Rosario
14. Donnie Joseph
15. Billy Hamilton
16. Chris Valaika
17. Devin Mesoraco
18. Josh Fellhauer
19. Matt Maloney
20. Logan Ondrusek
21. J.C. Sulbaran
22. Daniel Tuttle
23. Juan Silva
24. Juan Duran
25. Dave Sappelt

Honorable Mention:
Mark Serrano
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
Daniel Dorn
D.D. Gregorius
Miguel Rojas

Also, nyc and I decided to take a look a few prospects that may be on this list next year, but didn't make this year's list. Bonus scouting reports after the jump.

Henry Rodriguez, SS:

Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela. Reportedly plays good defense at SS, and should have the range and arm to stick there. Hit .327/.354/.427 as a 19 year old in the GCL last season. Doesn't walk much yet, but makes excellent contact. Very good speed and a good baserunner. Definitely has the tools, if he can continue to develop at the plate and maintain his SS defense, could be a good prospect to watch going forward.

Age: 20
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2009 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: Rookie (GCL Reds)

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 41 G, 150 AB, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 9 SB, .327/.354/.427/.781

Brian Pearl, RHRP:

The Reds 9th round pick out of Washington is a promising RH relief prospect, who was rated on the BA Top 200 list at draft time. His professional debut was very solid, with a 43 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings, for over 13 Ks per 9 innings. He can work in the mid 90s with his fastball, and has been known to hit 96, but consistency will be his biggest issue. Also throws a slider with potential. Should be an integral part of the Dayton bullpen this season, and could get some saves and move up quickly from there.

Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 9th round (269th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: Rookie (Billings)

2009 Statistics:

Washington (NCAA): 23 G (2 GS), 1-5, 8 SV, 3.05 ERA, 38.1 IP, 40 K, 17 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Billings (Rookie): 20 G, 1-0, 8 SV, 3.77 ERA, 28.2 IP, 43 K, 10 BB, 1.43 WHIP

Mark Fleury, C:

Drafted in the 4th round of last year's draft out of University of North Carolina. Solid catcher with well developed defensive skills. Struggled a bit in 39 games in Billings this season, but his peripherals (10% BB rate, .184 ISO power) indicate he was unlucky. Should start in Dayton or Lynchburg this season. With his already good defensive skills, if he can show more consistent offense he could be a good catching prospect.

Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 4th round (119th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: Rookie (Billings)

2009 Statistics:

North Carolina (NCAA): 66 G, 243 AB, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 1 SB, .309/.404/.560/.964
Billings (Rookie): 39 G, 131 AB, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 0 SB, .198/.284/.382/.666

Jacob Johnson, RHSP:

Listed most places by his given name "Harold", but goes by Jacob. He usually works around 90 with the fastball, but since big guy at 6'4", 215, scouts project he'll pick up more velocity. Throws a slider and curveball, but neither are assets at this point. Doesn't have overpowering stuff, but gets a lot of ground balls and keeps the ball in the ballpark. Still a very raw talent.

Age: 19
Draft/Acquisition Details: 11th round (329th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: Rookie (GCL Reds)

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 10 G (8 GS), 2-3, 2.76 ERA, 45.2 IP, 36 K, 15 BB, 1.12 WHIP

The Anti-Greats: Day 1

2010-02-08T17:00:22Z

The cyber-ink was not yet dry on the Top 100 Reds series when the call rang out: ‘Who are the worst 100’?

I intentionally kept most of the Top 100 series as positive as I could. Over 1700 players have worn the familiar colors since 1890, and in carving out this relatively small slice of the 100 greatest, the players would by definition occupy the part of our brains labeled "Happy Reds thoughts. Do not throw out".

Defining the worst is a whole lot trickier than doing the same for the best. Generally speaking, the worst never even see the field. Some, however, sneak through the cracks, and can be said to contribute fewer wins than some guy watching from the dugout. Or some other team’s dugout. Rarely is this the fault of the actual player. Players have varying levels of natural ability; they age in ways that are sometimes predictable, sometimes not; they work hard at a very difficult game that most of us fail at before needing to shave on a daily basis. Usually, more fault should be placed at the feet of the decision makers who traded for these players or signed them or continued to play them past the limits of supporting evidence. The stats, however, are assigned to the guys on the field, and so this list is about them. A celebration, if you will, of the bad times that help us really appreciate the good ones.

To give the exercise a bit more structure, I’ve selected 25 players in such a way that they might mirror the makeup of an actual roster. In alphabetical order, I present the top 25 anti-greats, to be posted in daily blocks of five:

Name: Bill Bergen

Position: C

Played for the Reds: 1901-1903

Why he's here: Bergen broke through to the majors as a 23 year old, and the intention was to allow aging catcher Heinie Peitz (#96 all-time Red) to transition to 2^nd base. Bergen's bat never allowed that to happen. In three seasons as a Red, Bergen hit .191/.218/.238 for a stunning OPS+ of 33. Bergen's top notch reputation as a defensive catcher kept him in the league for 11 years, but only three were with the Reds. By 1903, despite Bergen's career peak season (518 OPS, 41 OPS+), Bergen had been relegated to a backup role, and Peitz was again the first string backstop. After the season, Bergen was sold to Brooklyn. His career batting average of .170 is the all-time low for any player with at least 2,500 at-bats, and he remains the only player in MLB history with at least 500 at-bats and an OBP under .200. On the flip-side, he's ninth on the career catcher assist list, despite never being a true full-time player.

Role on the team: Starting catcher

Name: Rocky Bridges

Position: 2B, 3B, SS

Played for the Reds: 1953-1957

Why he's here: By 1952, Reds second baseman Grady Hatton (#61 all-time Red) was slowing way down, and the Reds had little depth from which to replace him. The team was eight years removed from their last winning season, so they decided to make a splash, participating in a stunning 4-team trade in which the Reds received the 25 year old Bridges from the Dodgers, plus cash from the Braves. All the Reds had to give up was young right fielder Joe Adcock to the Braves. Bridges played in 346 games over 4+ seasons with Cincy, played above average defense at a variety of positions, and hit .241/.306/.283 (55 OPS+). To prove his well-rounded abilities, Bridges also stole 8 bases over that stretch, while only being caught seven times. Just a handful of games into the '57 season, the Reds placed Bridges on waivers. The player for whom he was traded (Adcock) went on to play 14 more seasons (for a total of 17), and accumulated 336 career home runs and a lifetime OPS+ of 123.

Role on the team: Utility infielder

Name: Ownie Carroll

Position: SP, RP

Played for the Reds: 1930-1932

Why he's here: Ownie Carroll's career was generally unspectacular. His career win-loss mark of 64-90 over nine seasons speaks for itself. Carroll, however, owns a record which may never be broken: he was traded three times during his career, and each time the team that traded him received a future hall-of-famer in return (Waite Hoyt, Jim Bottomley, and Dazzy Vance). Tellingly, each of the baseball immortals was past his prime at the time of the Carroll trades. Carroll came to the Reds in 1930 not through a trade, but via purchase from the Yankees. It was Carroll's third team of the 1930 campaign-a season in which he lost all seven of his decisions, and had an ERA over seven to match. The Reds of the ‘30s were bad, but not hasty. They eased into their usage of Carroll, giving him 14 innings in the remainder of the 1930 season, 107 in 1931, and 210 in 1932. The team was rewarded for their patience, with Carroll leading the league in losses (19), while finishing 6^th in earned runs allowed, 7^th in wild pitches, and 1^st in hit batsmen. His cumulative Reds record was 13-29, and his ERA of 4.84 was good for an 80 ERA+.

Role on the team: #4 Starting pitcher

Name: Charlie Comiskey

Position: 1B

Played for the Reds: 1892-1894

Why he's here: Comiskey is in the Hall of Fame, but not for his playing. And Comiskey was a pretty decent player, but not for the Red Stockings. The first baseman jumped from the St. Louis Browns of the American Association to Cincinnati after the 1891 season and, despite his recent streak of poor hitting, played in 141 out of Cincy's 155 games in 1892. Comiskey rewarded their faith with a .227/.274/.290 line (71 OPS+), and it was by far his best season with Cincy. In part-time duty, the next two seasons showed OPS+ marks of 40 and 41, respectively. He still held up fairly well with the glove, and his legendary speed still showed signs of being present, but he simply couldn't get on base. He retired to become a manager after the 1894 season.

Role on the team: Starting 1^st baseman, cheapskate owner

Name: Adam Comorosky

Position: RF, LF

Played for the Reds: 1934-1935

Why he's here: At the end of the 1933 season, the Reds were at rock bottom. The team had finished dead last for the 3^rd consecutive season, and prior to that had finished 7^th out of 8 teams in two straight seasons. They hadn't topped 60 wins since 1929. And while the Reds were pretty bad in all facets of the game, they were really bad at hitting, finishing 7^th or 8^th in the 1933 NL in every single major offensive category. Figuring they therefore had a surplus of pitching, the team traded #2 starting pitcher Red Lucas (#26 all-time Red) and marginal outfielder Wally Roettger to Pittsburgh for Comorosky and 2^nd baseman Tony Piet. Piet was bad; Comorosky was worse: .258/.315/.312 (70 OPS+) in 1934, as the team fell further into the depths-registering their franchise-worst W/L percentage (.344, a mark that still stands). For the 1935 season, the Reds took Comorosky's starting job away, and he justified their stance with a 68 OPS+, and a .953 fielding percentage (in the outfield!). Comorosky did not play in the majors after 1935.

Role on the team: Starting right-fielder

Red Reposter - Jay Bruce is kind of a big Deal around here

2010-02-08T14:00:22Z

Jay Bruce is gonna walk to a different tune in 2010. via www.sosnickcobbesports.com

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Bruce learns from bout with adversity
Mark Sheldon reports on Jay Bruce's offseason and how he's dealt with a frustrating 2009.
Electing not to play winter ball and make up at-bats from the 57 games he missed last year, Bruce instead went home to Beaumont, Texas, and decompressed. Eventually, he resumed lifting weights, running, throwing and -- beginning about a month ago -- hitting. The wrist has passed all of the tests, and there is nothing holding back Bruce in his workouts. "It's felt fine and like [the injury] never happened," Bruce said. "I've had no pain; it's nonexistent. For a little bit, when I came back, it was still tight, but it's fine now."
Good to hear.

Sheldon also reports that Gomes' return remains up in air. As Turtle noted, MLB trade rumors is reporting that Gomes may sign with Cleveland.
Diamond Hoggers interviews Zizzy Mane
Zizzy Mane, a hip-hop musician, grew up playing little league with Jay Bruce. The two have stayed in touch and Bruce has selected Zizzy's track "The Deal" for his at-bat music this year. Zizzy talks about his and Jay's favorite artists and tells some Bruce stories from little league. Definitely worth a listen, especially if you're a music fan.
END devours Mexican pitching, plates 3 runs
Juan Francisco went 3 for 3 with an opposite-field HR and a sac fly in leading DR to a 7-2 win over Mexico on Saturday. It's great to see this as END had struggled in the first four games, hitting .188 with 1 double. He's also had 3 errors. Former (?) Red Kevin Barker also hit a HR (!) for the DR (!!). Yesterday, DR won the series with a 7-4 win over Venezuela. END added another 3 RBIs to give him 6 for the final two games.
Fayplacement: Embarrassing moment
Fayplacement Nick Hurn recounts a moment he'd like back from RedsFest: The elevator doors open, Davis enters, Bruce enters and I follow. I’m halfway in when I trip over Bruce’s size 50 shoe and stumble directly into Davis. My first conversation with Davis, one of my favorite players of all-time went something like this: (Trip, stumble into Davis) Davis: Have you been drinking? Me: No, Jay Bruce has really big feet and I’m a small guy. I tripped …. Davis: Are you sure you haven’t been drinking? (Laughter) (Silence) (Elevator doors open).
The Atlantic - Where Have You Gone, Jim Merritt?
Andrew Cohen watches Game 5 of the '70 WS on the MLB Network and decides to contact Jim "Got Nothing" Merrit, the losing pitcher for the Reds that game, for an interview. Cohen did not get a response. Just a strange column/blog post from a guy mostly known as a legal reporter for CBS.
C. Trent catches up with Glenn Braggs
Braggs reminisces about the 1990 team. While most fans ask Braggs about the bat-breaking in the World Series, I'll always remember him for the the homer-robbing catch in the LCS against Pittsburgh.
Red Letter Daze talks to Cuban baseball writer Peter Bjarkman
Since we've gone far too long without an Aroldis Chapman story. This guy isn't terribly high on Chapman, but I don't agree with this assessment below:
Is he a good risk in the abstract? Certainly, because he can throw 100 mph. But if you are comparing the risk to the $30 million he received, or to Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick of the Nationals in last year’s draft, then no. I don’t think you want to risk that kind of money on any pitcher who hasn’t thrown a single inning in professional baseball and who could blow his arm out tomorrow.

Of course, Stephen Strasburg also hadn't faced professional competition when he was drafted. That's the nature of the draft and international signings - you're taking guys on their potential. You can't select those players based on a robust track record against other professionals because it doesn't exist. And while there's an injury risk inherent with any pitcher, Bjarkman concedes that Chapman hasn't had an injuries in the past 3 years. All that said, there are plenty of interesting first-hand observations about Chapman's stuff and control that are worht the read.
MLB on FOX Unveils 2010 Broadcast Schedule
The Reds will not make any appearances. My NL Central tally: Cardinals - 8; Cubs - 8; Brewers - 4; Astros - 2; Pirates - 0.

This year FOX will feature a couple of prime time games instead of the normal afternoon-only schedule. BizofBaseball also reports that there's still no word on whether the blackout policy will remain the same for the prime time games. Fans naturally hate the blackouts, but it would be particularly maddening if an afternoon game is blacked out because of a 7 p.m. prime time game.
Pitt. Post-Gazette - Thanks for Nutting
I'd say public opinion is stacked against Pittsburgh owner Bob Nutting. Pittsburgh's major newspaper implores Nutting to sell his team already in the wake of rumors that Mario Lemieux has made an offer: [B]y selling the team you can finally deliver on your promise of producing a winner, and probably years ahead of schedule. You would become an overnight sensation, Pittsburgh's newest baseball hero. It's worth thinking about. (HT to Big League Stew). Meanwhile, the Astros appear to be off the table.
D.C. Sports Bog - Adam Dunn on 1B, MMA
Entertaining copy as always from my favorite ex-Red. Dunn admits to being a chatterbox at times when playing first: "Depends who it is," he said. "I've got my buddies, and we've got a lot of things to talk about. Other people, I have no idea what to talk about. For instance, say Brian McCann was over there, I would probably make some sort of fat joke, something like that. I would talk to David Wright about how he can't hit homers any more. It depends." Also, Nyjer Morgan calls Dunn "Freddie Physical." (HT to Big League Stew)

RR Community Prospect Rankings: This kid is a Hellflower

2010-02-05T12:00:41Z

Hellflower-y Havoc!!!

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Josh "Hellflower" Fellhauer (hat tip to BK for the nickname) is #24. I'm glad he finally made the list, because I think he's going to be legit. He should start the year in Lynchburg at the Reds new A+ affiliate team. Why am I telling you this? Because I'm super excited that Reds prospects will be out of the offensive abyss that is Sarasota, Florida. Hopefully he can have a positive year and move his way up this list.

Ok, kids, this is our last prospect of 2010! Surely there's someone left that you feel deserves to be on this list, so vote for them. But more importantly, tell us why we should vote for them too!

Mariekson (D.D.) Gregorius, SS:

Has the arm and range to stick at SS. (DD at SS?) Good plate discipline at a young age, makes excellent contact (13% K rate). Has very little power, even for a SS, but that could develop as he gets older. Currently only listed at 6’-1", 152 lbs, so frame has room to fill out a bit.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 20
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of the Netherlands
Highest Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)

2009 Statistics:

Billings (Rookie): 50 G, 204 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, .314/.363/.387/.750
Sarasota (A+): 22 G, 71 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .254/.274/.310/.584

Miguel Rojas, SS:

Rated by Baseball America as the best infield defender in the organization. Plays a plus-plus SS with good range, soft hands, and a strong arm. All of his value comes defensively, though, as his only real offensive weapon is the ability to make contact. Hits mostly groundballs and has very little power. Small frame that could grow, but right now projects as a defensive specialist, unless he can develop more plate patience and/or power.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 21
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 130 G, 469 AB, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, .273/.326/.339/.665

Sam LeCure, RHSP:

Formerly of the University of Texas, exhibits good command with a high pitching IQ. Throws a fastball in the low 90s that gets up to 93, and a changeup and slider. Nothing spectacular, but can locate all three pitches and is very consistent overall. K and BB rates are decent, and the walk rate is improved from last year. Gave up lots of dingers last year, but with his pitching acumen, could be a back of the rotation starter in the big leagues. May be a candidate for the bullpen, as he has some trouble with lefties.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 26
Draft/Acquisition Details: 4th round (122nd pick), Reds, 2005
Highest Level Played: AAA (Louisville)

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 25 GS, 10-8, 4.46 ERA, 142.1 IP, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Cibaenas (DWL): 4 G (2 GS), 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 2.32 WHIP

Juan Silva, CF:

Last year's 8th round pick was considered the best prospect to come out of the Puerto Rican baseball academy. Has above average speed and an above average arm, so may be able to stick in CF. Hit .279/.373/.464 as an 18 year old in the GCL this season. Has very solid tools all the way around, but still has a ways to go on the developmental curve. Definitely one to watch going forward.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 17
Age: 19
Draft/Acquisition Details: 8th round (239th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: Rookie (GCL Reds)

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 42 G, 140 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .279/.373/.464/.837

Mark Serrano, RHSP:

2nd team All-American and Summit League Player of the Year in 2009. Put up gaudy numbers in college last year, but faced weak competition at Oral Roberts for most of those starts. Worth noting that he did face a few good teams in Rice, ASU and Arkansas, and his 13.77K/9 was ranked 2nd in the nation. Showed some good signs last year, still racking up lots of strikeouts in Dayton and kept K and BB ratios similar. Will move up the system quickly, but if he can keep up these numbers, he could develop into a solid back-end starter or shut-down reliever. Needs to watch walk numbers against lefties, but keeps the ball in the ballpark. Fastball in the upper 80s up to around 94, with an average changeup and curve.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 24
Draft/Acquisition Details: 6th round (179th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Oral Roberts (NCAA): 20 G (9 GS), 9-1, 2.50 ERA, 86.1 IP, 132 K, 25 BB, 1.01 WHIP
Billings (Rookie): 3 G (0 GS), 0-0, 1.42 ERA, 6.1 IP, 8 K, 3 BB, 0.95 WHIP
Dayton (A): 11 G (8 GS), 3-1, 2.20 ERA, 49 IP, 57 K, 12 BB, 1.00 WHIP

Alexander Smit, LHSP:

The Dutch Dot-Com put up decent numbers again this year in Carolina, earning a spring training invite for this year. Still has control problems, walking almost 5 hitters every 9 innings, but got hitters out via fly balls and strikeouts. Unfortunately, that means he doesn't give up many grounders, which may not fly in GABP. He split hit appearances basically in half from the bullpen and rotation, and there wasn't too much difference between the two roles for him. His future probably lies in the bullpen since his stuff isn't great, but since he's a lefty, he has big league bullpen potential. He was a quite highly regarded prospect with the Twins coming out of the Netherlands, but since being picked up by the Reds off of waivers in 2007, has fallen off a bit with injury problems and needs a solid season between AA and AAA to keep his dream alive.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 24
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2002 out of the Netherlands (Twins), selected off waivers by Reds in 2007
Highest Level Played: AA (Carolina)

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 2 GS, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4.0 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 0.00 WHIP
Sarasota (A+): 3 G (2 GS), 0-0, 4.26 ERA, 12.2 IP, 12 K, 7 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 21 G (10 GS), 4-3, 3.04 ERA, 71 IP, 73 K, 42 BB, 1.35 WHIP

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, LHRP:

Lefty bullpen arm out of Canada had another very solid season last year between Sarasota and Carolina. There are definitely good signs here, with a decent strikeout percentage and an excellent ground-ball percentage (50% on the season). The downside from his game last year was his walks, which ended up at almost 5 walks per 9 innings last year. Phil-Alex has decent stuff, and can get his fastball into the mid 90s. With a little luck, he could sniff the major leagues as early as this year.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 7th round (198th pick), Reds, 2004
Highest Level Played: AA (Carolina)

2009 Statistics:

Sarasota (A+): 17 G, 1-1, 2.29 ERA, 19.2 IP, 19 K, 9 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 27 G, 1-1, 2.76 ERA, 32.2 IP, 27 K, 20 BB, 1.38 WHIP

Dave Sappelt, OF:

Excellent range in CF, enough so that Baseball America ranked him the organization's best defensive outfielder. (Drew Stubbs was ineligible) Unfortunately doesn't have a great arm, so a move to a corner may eventually be necessary. Has good plate approach, good contact skills, and good on-base skills but little power. Did flash some power in college but has yet to show it two pro seasons. Has very good speed and is an aggressive baserunner, but currently gets caught stealing too much. (68% success rate so far as a pro) If he can stick in CF he might hit enough to play everyday, but a more likely ceiling is as a 4th-5th outfielder.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 9th round (268th pick), Reds, 2008
Highest Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 74 G, 301 AB, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 26 SB, .269/.322/.392/.714
Sarasota (A+): 62 G, 251 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 21 SB, .295/.333/.406/.739

Poll

Who is the Reds #25 prospect?

DD Gregorius

31 votes

Miguel Rojas

32 votes

Sam LeCure

57 votes

Juan Silva

49 votes

Mark Serrano

18 votes

Alexander Smit

7 votes

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

26 votes

Dave Sappelt

9 votes

229 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Camp Update: Pitching Ain't So Hard, As Long As You Wear A Cup

2010-02-05T04:05:23Z

The Toyota Recalls

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The final day of games began with me ruing the decision to participate in this camp at all. I woke this morning lacking energy or motivation to go through with another double-header, and the only thing that didn't hurt on me was my left arm, which I really don't use. We got to the park and immediately hit the hot tub to loosen up, and the day started to get a little bit better.

Our morning games start about 10 AM, and typically the weather has been a little bit chilly every morning - say 55 degrees or so - so it's important to get stretched out as much as possible. I really only have two places that I've hurt - my ankle, which is purple and my groin which was slightly strained - but I ache all over. So, I spent part of the morning before the game in the trainer's room with 10-15 of my closest friends getting taped up around my ankle. Then I spent the remaining time stretching my legs in every direction possible. By about 10:15, I actually felt reasonably comfortable. I couldn't run, but it didn't hurt to just stand there.

We were the 6th seed in the playoffs, or the 2nd seed in the consolation bracket, so we got to be the home team in our first game. We took on Tom Browning and Kent Mercker's team, who we had beat yesterday 2-0 as our pitcher threw a 1-hitter and hit a triple to spark our 2-run rally in the 7th. We started our other big gun in today's game, and he was nearly unhittable for 4 innings as we built up a 3-run lead, but he pulled himself out early because frankly the games just don't mean that much. Yesterday's star pitcher came in and was much more hittable and the other team managed to score 6 runs off of him in the final 3 innings. As has been the case with our team, we never were able to get another rally going and once we got down, we were done. The loss meant we would play for 7th place in the afternoon.

As for me, I made a tweak to my batting stance, spreading out my legs a little bit more and it made all of the difference in the world. I hit a hard ground ball to short in my first AB, but there was a runner on base and a force out was made to end the inning. In my second AB, I hit a flyball to left center (see video after the jump) and probably could have gotten a double out of it, but my legs hurt and it forced me to run like a cripple (see video after the jump). My third AB was a line drive up the middle that I got a single on. After waiting the whole week to get a hit out of the infield, I got 2 in consecutive at bats. It felt good.

My batting stance is still a little awkward, but it got me a couple of hits this morning:

Compare my stance to my brother's. I'm convinced athleticism is not genetic...

In the afternoon game, I expected to start the game on the mound, but we switched things up just before game time and I started out in left field. I did come out to pitch at the start of the 2nd inning to protect my team's 3-run lead. (NOTE: We had decided that since the game didn't really matter, we'd only play 3 innings unless there was a tie). I felt good loosening up on the mound. I'm nothing special, but I kept the ball around the plate, which is all you need to do at RFC. However, I had never pitched to an actual batter before in my life. Ever.

So, I was very happy that my first pitch was over the plate, until the hitter swung and made solid contact, shooting a liner back up the middle on a straight line for my crotch. Somehow, and believe me I have no idea how this happened, I was able to not only get my glove in the way of the ball, but I was able to catch the ball, saving my family jewels from impending doom. And just like that, one pitch, one very dangerous out. As Lee May said after the game, thankfully I caught that ball or they'd be picking my nuts up in center field.

The next two batters popped up to the catcher and weakly grounded out back to me. Three batters, three outs. This pitching stuff is easy.

The next inning started out much the same way. The first batter grounded out the 1B. The second batter grounded out to second base. Then things got dicey. Actually, I should say that's right when the top of their order came to the plate and suddenly I wasn't throwing weak stuff to weak hitters anymore. Three straight singles later, I was struggling and my shoulder was starting to burn. The next hitter lined the ball into left center, scoring all three runners as the batter ended up at third base. Well, there goes that lead.

My pitching style is unconventional, but it sort of got the job done:

I did manage to get the third out in the inning, a pop out to shortstop, I believe. But after 3 innings the game was tied. We decided to keep playing, and though my team was unable to plate any runs in the 4th, I did manage to get beaned in the buttocks, upping my on base percentage to .417 (6 hits, 3 BB, 1 HBP in 24 plate apperances). Unfortunately, that number isn't really all that impressive (our leading hitter batted .650), but I'm still happy with it.

I didn't pitch in the 4th inning and we went on to lose the game on an inside the park walk-off home run - the key at this point in the week was to hit it past the outfielder who could no longer run.

Alas, a week that started with such promise ended with us as the 8th place team. Oh well, we had fun.

Tomorrow, every team gets to play 3 innings against the pros. Since we were the last place team, we're the last team that gets to play against the former players, which may be a blessing since they will have already played 21 innings at that point. Apparently the pros take it very serious. They'll give you one pitch down the middle, but if you don't hit it, forget about it, they're going to destroy you. I'm actually looking forward to it.

Hopefully I'll have a recap for you after the game. Who knows, I might even get a chance to pitch to them. That could be ugly.

Red Reposter - The Reds + Cabrera - Taveras = Smile

2010-02-04T16:00:27Z

More photos » Al Behrman - AP

He certainly has the LOOK of a spry, go-get-'em shortstop.

Browse more photos »

What a difference, huh?
"In the last three weeks -- beginning with the surprise Jan. 11 signing of Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman through Monday's signing of veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera and the trading away of Willy Taveras -- Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has moved Cincinnati from likely also-ran to a potential preseason sleeper. "I'm excited about it," Jocketty said on Monday. "Obviously, we've been able to do some things to improve our club that I wasn't sure we'd be in position to do. A lot of it was being patient and waiting for the market to drop to our level, I guess, where we could afford to do some things."

Throw in the Scott Rolen restructuring/extension, the Ramon Hernandez below-market contract, and the apparently savvy non-tendering of Jonny Gomes (and perhaps a subsequent re-signing?), and you got yerself one purty darned good off season. I wouldn't go so far just yet as to call the Reds a "potential preseason sleeper", but this baseball team is moving briskly in the right direction. It feels great to say that.
Hall o' Famer Hal isn't all that excited about bringing Orlando Cabrera aboard
He reminds him too much of Alex Gonzalez. Can't say I disagree. The key difference is that Gonzo was signed for 3 years and almost $15 mil. The Reds will likely only pay Cabrera $3 mil to be a stop-gap this season. Oh, and Cabrera is Cal Ripken compared to Gonzo, at least in terms of durability. It terms of on-field play though, it's kinda hard to tell the difference between the two.
Jay Bruce says last season was important
"The adversity I dealt with last year was pretty serious," said Bruce, who will turn 23 on April 3. "Everyone should deal with adversity, and I'm going to use it as a positive to come back this year and be the player that I know I can be."

Bruce worked out all winter and started hitting a month ago. I would have liked to see him play that month of winter ball in the DWL, but I ain't mad at 'im.
MetsBlog has been beating the drum for the Mets to get Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo AND Brandon Phillips all winter
I'm not saying this particular Mets fan is delusional. The Reds DID say (what seems like years ago) that payroll was a major problem and intimated that major pieces could be dealt. But that clearly isn't happening now. It must suuuuuuck to be a Mets fan. The Reds perceived financial trouble is basically all they have to hang their hats on now. Just one more reason to send Ol' Walter a heart-felt valentine this year instead of those phony prank ones I usually send.
Aaron Gleeman at Circling the Bases says the A's essentially made the trade
so they could pay Adam Rosales $800k a season for the next three. That's still pretty cheap for a decent utility infielder. That being said, it's an incredible deal for the Reds. I like it for the A's, but i looooove it for the Reds. Love it.
You know, Adam Rosales' goofy, home-spun, Opiecharm is much easier to swallow from afar
Reds GM "Walt Jocketty called and said they had to make a move, and that there was a better opportunity in Oakland than there was in Cincinnati right now," (Rosales) said. "It's the first time I've ever been traded. The Reds drafted me and gave me my first opportunity to be a professional baseball player. "I had a little heartbreak feeling, but that's what baseball is, and I got a call from Billy Beane and he sounded excited to have me as part of the Oakland A's organization, so I was excited as well." I genuinely wish Rosie all the success he could hope for out By the Bay.
The Reds are giving you a chance to win tickets to Opening Day
'course, real fans go to game 2.
Doug Gray reviews Drew Stubbs' 2009 season
Stubbs had an up-and-down season, down in April, up in May, down in June. His 10% walk rate is good, and his 23% K-rate is acceptable if he can find a bit more pop or a few more walks. There has been a great argument going on in the Taveras Trade thread about whether Stubbs is the best option as the Reds' starting CF. If you aren't already following that, give it a look-see.

-------------------------------------------
Just picked this up over the wire: David Coleman at Crawfish Boxes responds to an article by Houston Chronicle writer Bernardo Fallas
Fallas wonders if the Astros should go after dearly departed Willy Taveras. Coleman, on the other hand, doesn't. He does a pretty job of arguing why Taveras should never play major league baseball ever again. Damn, am I glad to be so successfully rid of him. HT to BBTF

RR Community Prospect Rankings: Every time you play one off your hips, you owe me 40 situps

2010-02-04T12:00:49Z

"It seems that Mr. Jocketty doesn't think too highly of our worth. He put this team together because he thought we'd be bad enough to finish dead last, knocking attendance down to the point where she could move the team to Zebulon... and get rid of all of us for better personnel." "Even me?" "Even you, Dorn" (via flickr @tjperr)

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"Major League" references aside, Danny Dorn won yesterday's poll in a barnburner, winning over Sam LeCure who made an improbable late day run. Even though he's been on the ballot for over two weeks now, Josh Failhauer still can't catch a break.

Same candidates as yesterday (minus one), so you know by now who you're voting for.

Josh Fellhauer, CF:

Cal St. Fullerton product displayed good plate discipline (7.5% BB rate) and solid contact skills (14.4% K rate) in Dayton this season. Has compact swing that doesn’t produce much power. Good runner, but not excellent. Somewhat like Chris Heisey, has solid tools but no outstanding ones. If he can stick in CF could be a solid prospect. If he needs to move to a corner spot probably lacks the power to progress.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 13
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 7th round (209th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Cal State Fullerton (NCAA): 60 G, 227 AB, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 18 SB, .396/.478/.529/1.007
Dayton (A): 57 G, 236 AB, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, .280/.351/.453/.804

Mariekson (D.D.) Gregorius, SS:

2009 Statistics:

Billings (Rookie): 50 G, 204 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, .314/.363/.387/.750
Sarasota (A+): 22 G, 71 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .254/.274/.310/.584

Miguel Rojas, SS:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 21
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 130 G, 469 AB, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, .273/.326/.339/.665

Sam LeCure, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 25 GS, 10-8, 4.46 ERA, 142.1 IP, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Cibaenas (DWL): 4 G (2 GS), 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 2.32 WHIP

Juan Silva, CF:

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 42 G, 140 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .279/.373/.464/.837

Mark Serrano, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Alexander Smit, LHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, LHRP:

2009 Statistics:

Sarasota (A+): 17 G, 1-1, 2.29 ERA, 19.2 IP, 19 K, 9 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 27 G, 1-1, 2.76 ERA, 32.2 IP, 27 K, 20 BB, 1.38 WHIP

Dave Sappelt, OF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 9th round (268th pick), Reds, 2008
Highest Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 74 G, 301 AB, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 26 SB, .269/.322/.392/.714
Sarasota (A+): 62 G, 251 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 21 SB, .295/.333/.406/.739

Poll

Who is the Reds #24 prospect for 2010?

Josh Fellhauer

53 votes

D.D. Gregorius

9 votes

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

17 votes

Sam LeCure

49 votes

Miguel Rojas

21 votes

Juan Silva

16 votes

Dave Sappelt

5 votes

Mark Serrano

12 votes

Alexander Smit

11 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed

RR Community Prospect Rankings: Lurch-ing towards the finish line

2010-02-03T12:00:26Z

I wouldn't want to face him

View full size photo »

Prospect #22 is 6'7" behemoth Logan Ondrusek. Logan should start the year in AAA, and a good showing there could put him in the Reds bullpen at some point this season.

We're down to our final 3 prospect spots. There are a number of deserving candidates available, and some of you have been voting for the same guy for a while. Speak up in the comments and tell us why your guy deserves a spot on the list!

Josh Fellhauer, CF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 13
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 7th round (209th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Cal State Fullerton (NCAA): 60 G, 227 AB, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 18 SB, .396/.478/.529/1.007
Dayton (A): 57 G, 236 AB, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, .280/.351/.453/.804

Mariekson (D.D.) Gregorius, SS:

2009 Statistics:

Billings (Rookie): 50 G, 204 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, .314/.363/.387/.750
Sarasota (A+): 22 G, 71 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .254/.274/.310/.584

Miguel Rojas, SS:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 21
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 130 G, 469 AB, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, .273/.326/.339/.665

Sam LeCure, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 25 GS, 10-8, 4.46 ERA, 142.1 IP, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Cibaenas (DWL): 4 G (2 GS), 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 2.32 WHIP

Juan Silva, CF:

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 42 G, 140 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .279/.373/.464/.837

Mark Serrano, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Alexander Smit, LHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Danny Dorn, OF:

Former 32nd round pick, Dorn has struggled to find a place in the Reds organization, despite some very solid performances. A bit of a down year in AAA last year after he posted an OPS of .906 in AA in 2008. Slightly above average in left field. Drawbacks are that he has significant lefty/righty splits so he would only likely be useful in a platoon situation. Also lacks the athleticism to play anywhere other than a corner OF spot. Possibly needs a change of scenery, as he was left exposed for the Rule 5 draft this year and was initially not invited to spring training. Could be a solid LH bat off the bench or a platoon partner in a corner OF position.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 25
Draft/Acquisition Details: 32nd round (954th pick), Reds, 2006
Highest Level Played: AAA (Louisville)

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 112 G, 357 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB, .275/.337/.457/.794

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, LHRP:

2009 Statistics:

Sarasota (A+): 17 G, 1-1, 2.29 ERA, 19.2 IP, 19 K, 9 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 27 G, 1-1, 2.76 ERA, 32.2 IP, 27 K, 20 BB, 1.38 WHIP

Dave Sappelt, OF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 9th round (268th pick), Reds, 2008
Highest Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 74 G, 301 AB, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 26 SB, .269/.322/.392/.714
Sarasota (A+): 62 G, 251 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 21 SB, .295/.333/.406/.739

Poll

Who is the Reds #23 prospect?

Josh Fellhauer

33 votes

Miguel Rojas

23 votes

DD Gregorius

14 votes

Juan Silva

18 votes

Mark Serrano

17 votes

Sam LeCure

40 votes

Alexander Smit

7 votes

Danny Dorn

41 votes

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

14 votes

Dave Sappelt

2 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Camp Update: It's Almost Playoff Time

2010-02-03T05:14:48Z

We are through 3 days of camp and 4 of the 8 teams have a 2-3 record. Unfortunately, one of those team is the Toyota Recalls - my team. After losing our first game on Sunday, we went 1-1 on Monday and split another double-header on Tuesday. The two losses on Monday and Tuesday were fairly disgusting - Tuesday we lost the morning game by 2 touchdowns.

The big win came Tuesday afternoon when we beat the previously unbeaten team managed by Bill Hatcher and Ted Power. To say that Hatcher was pissed would be an understatement. Even as a coach at Fantasy Camp, he sure doesn't like losing. He was cursing up a storm and bitching and moaning for a good hour after the game. But the fact was, he was owned by our pitcher - a 47-year old banker from Houston - who threw a complete game, striking out 6 and inducing 8 ground balls back to the pitcher. It was probably the most boring game to play the field, well, ever. It was still a beautiful win.

The morning game on Tuesday started out well. My brother Tim was the starting pitcher and we jumped out to a 4-1 lead. Our opponents - managed by Pete Harnisch and Joe Price - battled back and took a 7-4 lead. Then we got to the 6th inning and the wheels fell off. A hit batsman, a walk, and a string of hits - including an inside the park home run - turned a tight game into a major blowout. It got so bad that one of our coaches, Joe Oliver, had to finish off the inning, and even he surrendered a run. We took our lumps, but that happens sometimes. The shame of the whole thing was that it was the only win so far by Harnisch's team.

My day was pretty quiet. I was 1 for 3 in the first game - my only hit was of the infield variety again. The second game sucked as the umpire had a gigantic strike zone. Pitches that I watched cross the white line of the batter's box were being called strikes, which meant that you had to swing at anything that was close. I didn't adjust well and struck out twice. I took a walk in my third plate appearance after the brought in a new pitcher who had trouble getting close to the strike zone. I played left field all day, but I only had two balls hit my way - one a dinker that was too far out in front of me to get to and the other a shot that went over my head and reached the wall. Otherwise I had a quiet day defensively. I'm hoping that tomorrow I can get some time back at 2B, but the old guys are having trouble moving in the field right now so those of us with younger legs have to do the running in the outfield.

I had my first minor injury today. I rolled my ankle as I landed weird trying to beat out a ground out at first base. It didn't hurt for long, but it has swollen up. I'll be fine, but you should still feel sorry for me. :)

In other camp news, Monday night saw the first Kangaroo Court. For those not familiar with the concept, everybody is brought together to discuss the transgressions of the players and coaches to that point. I wish I could describe it in detail, but I'm sure I'd ruin it. Let's just say that it's the most I've laughed in a long while and Doug Flynn and Bobby Wine are two hilarious mofos.

The evening wrapped up yesterday with a bull session out on the hotel patio with Tom Browning, Joe Oliver, Kent Mercker, and Eric Davis. The highlight of this trip is the opportunity to sit around and listen to stories from the players, and those four guys have some of the best stories around. Probably the best part of the night was when Jack Billingham came out and started talking Big Red Machine trash to the guys from the 1990 team. E.D. was adamant that the 1990 team was the better team, but Billingham wasn't having any of it - though to be fair, I'm pretty sure Davis was just trying to start trouble. It's great to see the camaraderie among all of the players, and even better they include every one of us in that relationship. It's one of those things that you really have to experience to appreciate it. Maybe there is something to this team chemistry stuff. :)

That's all for tonight. We've gotta win two games tomorrow to get ourselves into the playoffs. Both of our best pitchers are ready to go though, so as long as we can put some runs on the board, we have a chance. Wish us luck!

RR Community Prospect Rankings: Blackjack! Donnie Joe is prospect #21

2010-02-02T12:00:53Z

"Mr. Joseph, you have 21." "I'll stay."

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After another close vote, Donnie Joseph is your #21 prospect for 2010, edging Logan Ondrusek by only 3 votes. Today, we add the final 4 players to the ballot, 2 pitchers and 2 hitters. If there's anyone else you want to vote for in the final four spots that isn't currently on there, let us know in the comments. nyc and myself are pretty confident that we got everybody, but we're not perfect.

Vote now. Only 4 spots to go!

Logan Ondrusek, RHRP:

Tall. Converted from a starter to setup man after 2007. Was old for his level in Sarasota, but pitched lights out there and had success at 3 levels last season. Doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but keeps the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. Walks weren't a huge concern last year, but that was a drastic outlier. He throws a 4-seam fastball in the low-mid 90s, and a change in the low 80s, along with a slider and cutter. Had a rough AFL campaign, giving up 4 HR in 10 innings after giving up 1 in 72 during the season.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 25 (on February 13)
Draft/Acquisition Details: 13rd round (392nd pick), Reds, 2005
Highest Level Played: AAA (Louisville)

2009 Statistics:

Sarasota (A+): 13 G, 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 18.2 IP, 12 K, 7 BB, .75 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 24 G, 2-1, 1.65 ERA, 32.2 IP, 24 K, 12 BB, 1.01 WHIP
Louisville (AAA): 19 G, 0-0, 1.74 ERA, 20.2 IP, 11 K, 2 BB, .87 WHIP
Peoria Saguaros (AFL): 10 G, 2-1, 13.50 ERA, 10 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 2.4 WHIP

Josh Fellhauer, CF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 13
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 7th round (209th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Cal State Fullerton (NCAA): 60 G, 227 AB, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 18 SB, .396/.478/.529/1.007
Dayton (A): 57 G, 236 AB, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, .280/.351/.453/.804

Mariekson (D.D.) Gregorius, SS:

2009 Statistics:

Billings (Rookie): 50 G, 204 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, .314/.363/.387/.750
Sarasota (A+): 22 G, 71 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .254/.274/.310/.584

Miguel Rojas, SS:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 21
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 130 G, 469 AB, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, .273/.326/.339/.665

Sam LeCure, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 25 GS, 10-8, 4.46 ERA, 142.1 IP, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Cibaenas (DWL): 4 G (2 GS), 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 2.32 WHIP

Juan Silva, CF:

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 42 G, 140 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .279/.373/.464/.837

Mark Serrano, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Alexander Smit, LHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Danny Dorn, OF:

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 112 G, 357 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB, .275/.337/.457/.794

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, LHRP:

2009 Statistics:

Sarasota (A+): 17 G, 1-1, 2.29 ERA, 19.2 IP, 19 K, 9 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Carolina (AA): 27 G, 1-1, 2.76 ERA, 32.2 IP, 27 K, 20 BB, 1.38 WHIP

Dave Sappelt, OF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 9th round (268th pick), Reds, 2008
Highest Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 74 G, 301 AB, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 26 SB, .269/.322/.392/.714
Sarasota (A+): 62 G, 251 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 21 SB, .295/.333/.406/.739

Poll

Who is the Reds #22 prospect for 2010?

Sam LeCure

21 votes

DD Gregorius

14 votes

Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

11 votes

Juan Silva

19 votes

Mark Serrano

5 votes

Logan Ondrusek

45 votes

Danny Dorn

29 votes

Alexander Smit

5 votes

Josh Fellhauer

22 votes

Dave Sappelt

2 votes

Miguel Rojas

21 votes

194 votes | Poll has closed

Who is the bigger liability? Miles, or Taveras?

2010-02-02T04:21:12Z

To most Reds fans, today was the day we shed our greatest problem from last year. I like to describe Taveras's disastrous 2009 season as "Corey Patterson, but without the power." Come to think of it, given Junior's disastrous career in Cincinnati, you have to start worrying about curses on our center fielders.... The Reds haven't done will by their CF in a while...

The question is, however, whether Miles is any kind of improvement over Taveras. Let's break down the deal, starting with what we got: Aaron Miles and his $2.7 M salary, plus a player to be named later.

SHB INF Aaron Miles Offense (thanks to FanGraphs)

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRAA	wRAR
2007	30.5	STL	449	9%	6%	18%	0.313	0.290	0.325	0.348	0.058	0.309	-10.4	1.9
2008	31.5	STL	408	9%	6%	21%	0.342	0.317	0.350	0.398	0.082	0.338	1.8	12.6
2009	32.5	CHN	170	12%	5%	19%	0.213	0.185	0.218	0.242	0.057	0.223	-16.4	-11.9
2010	33.5	CHONE	353	12%	5%	---	0.282	0.251	0.289	0.325	0.075	0.282	-16.0	-4.2
2010	33.5	Marcel	326	12%	6%	---	0.295	0.268	0.310	0.358	0.090	0.304	-8.7	2.2
2010	33.5	Fans	303	11%	6%	---	0.293	0.274	0.317	0.393	0.119	0.316	-4.8	5.3

Prior to last season, Miles had been somewhere between a replacement player and a decent reserve guy over the previous several years. He peaked in 2008 with a season that was within striking distance of being league average. Offensively, he actually reminds me a lot of a poor man's Orlando Cabrera: decent contact, very low walk rate, and not much power. He lacks Cabrera's speed, though.

Obviously, he was a complete disaster last year. I think it's interesting to see how the different projections treat that The Fans are the most optimistic that he will bounce back with modestly respectable performance...but then Fans tend to be an optimistic lot. CHONE seems to pay a lot of attention to his apparent 2009 downturn season, whereas Marcel is more or less in the middle. Overall, I'll just go with the average of the Marcel and Fans projections (though I'll use the Fans' PT estimates) and put him at roughly 9 runs below average in 303 PA's.

Fielding

At first, things looked ok here. Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections put Miles as a -1 run per season 2B. CHONE has him as a -1 run at 2B. But the Fan Scouting Report has him as a terrible 2B, 22 runs below average per season. Maybe some of this was spillover anger over his awful offensive performance, but my feeling is that we shouldn't ignore it. An average of all three estimates puts Miles as a -8 run fielder at 2B.

So, overall, using 43% playing time:
Batting: -9 runs
Fielding: -8 * 0.43 = -3 runs
Position (2B): +2.5 * 0.43 = +1 run
Replacement: +22.5 * 0.43 = +10 runs
Total: -1 run above replacement--essentially dead on replacement level.

Miles will make $2.7 M next season, but is worth league-minimum, or ~$400k. That makes him a $2.2 M liability.

What about Taveras and Rosales?

Here are their projections, using the same methods as above:

Taveras (52% playing time per Fans)
Batting: -10 runs
Fielding: [+7 (TZ) +2 (UZR) -8 (Fans)] / 3 = +0 runs
Position (CF): +2.5 * 0.52 = +1 run
Replacement: +22.5 * 0.52 = +12 runs
Total: +3 runs above replacement, or ~0.3 WAR

Taveras is essentially a replacement player too (maybe slightly above replacement by these projections), who probably at best worth $1 M. He will make $4 M, however, which means he is a $3 M liability.

Rosales (53% playing time, based on CHONE & Marcel)
Batting: -4 runs
Fielding (3B): [-2 runs (TZ) + -4 runs (Fans)]/2 = -3 runs * 0.53 = -2 runs
Position (3B): +2.5 * 0.53 = +1 run
Replacement: +22.5 * 0.53 = +12 runs
Total: +7 runs above replacement, or 0.7 WAR

Replacing Rosales's projected production with a free agent would cost ~$2.5 M, and yet he will likely make right about league minimum of $400K. This gives Rosales as a "property" a surplus value of ~$2.1 M.

Trade values

So, the trade can be written as:

Miles ($2.2 liability) + PTBNL = Taveras ($3 M liability) + Rosales ($2.1 surplus)

So, for the Reds to get market even value on this deal of bad parts, they'll need to get somewhere on the order of $1.3 M in surplus value with this unnamed PTBNL. That's not a particularly tall order, so I'd guess that this deal is going to turn out to be pretty close to even. But we'll have to wait and see who ultimately gets tapped to complete the transaction before rendering a final verdict.

Update (update was updated again at 9pm): as several have noted (esp sidnancy), the playing time estimates I give to all of these players--typically around 50% of a season--may be overly optimistic, as none of these guys is a starter anymore. If you drop them down to 25% playing time (~175 PA's), Miles and Taveras barely change (essentially replacement players...Taveras sees his slight positive cut, which makes him even more of a liability), but Rosales sees his surplus value cut in half. However, this is countered somewhat by the fact that Rosales's value should have been calculated across the remainder of his foreseeable career in the majors. That's the value shown below.

Miles ($2.2 liability) + PTBNL = Taveras ($3.5 M liability) + Rosales ($2.5 surplus)

So we're more or less back where we started, with the Reds needing a player who provides roughly $1.2 M in surplus to break even on the deal.

Let's all welcome Aaron "Harnann" Miles to the club!

2010-02-01T22:15:06Z

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

Yup. Yup. Mm-hmm. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

Some interesting clips from Aaron Miles's Wikipedia page:

He finished fourth in the 2004 Rookie of the Year voting. Willy Taveras was second in the 2005 vote.
He almost made the roster for the 2004 Olympics - for Greece.
He has pitched a shutout inning of relief in the Majors. Suck it, Paul Janish!
In 2000, gunmen held him capitve in his hotel room during spring training. Miles was able to wrestle and subdue his captor. Police arrived shortly thereafter and shot the man while Miles held him against the ground.

This trade is fantastic.

Taveras traded to Oakland!

2010-02-01T17:28:44Z

Buster Olney reporting Willy Taveras and Adam Rosales dealt to Oakland for Aaron Miles and a PTBNL. More to come.

Hard to imagine. Wow Walt! What an offseason this is turning out to be. Who would have thought this would happen. With Billy Beane, no less. Addition by subtraction? I guess this answers the question of how Cabrera will fit on to the 40-man roster. This should be a fun discussion, to say the least.

Red Reposter - Cabrera, Caravan wrap-up

2010-02-01T16:00:22Z

Phil Castellini is either highly confident or was in the middle of making an important point while talking to fans during the Caravan. via ramsey.mlblogs.com

View full size photo »

Reds sign Orlando Cabrera
As we've discussed, it's a one-year, 3M deal with a 1M buyout on 2011 (no word yet if it's a team or player option). Let's hope last year's defensive numbers were a fluke. Otherwise, we'll all be screaming for Dusty to start what's-his-name. No word yet on who will be removed from the 40-man roster.
During the Caravan, which preceded the signing, Cabrera was a hot topic of conversation. Dusty backed the incumbent and essentially gave a no comment on the Cabrera rumors.
Rob Neyer: Reds looking like contenders?
Opinion on the Orlando Cabrera signing is divided between those who want to go for it this year and those who'd rather see if Janish can be a credible shortstop on a contending team in 2011. I've leaned toward the latter pov, but Neyer believes that the Reds have a serious shot at the WC this year: I do believe that the Reds have thetalent on their roster for a solid season. Whether the luck and the management line up behind the talent ... well, that's your proverbial "known unknown."
Projectprospect.com has posted their top 25 prospects list. Two Reds made the cut, but you might be surprised who they are, and where they landed. There's also a good chat about the list. Here's the best part: "So does this insinuate that, looking back on last year’s draft, you’d go with Mike Leake at 3rd overall? What do you think of Leake compared with top players like Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, Aaron Crow, and Jiovanni Mier?" Yep, I would have strongly considered Leake with the 3rd overall pick. He’s a good ground-ball pitcher who can locate five pitches for strikes. Leake picked apart Dom Brown when they matched up at the AFL. I felt bad for Brown…it wasn’t fair. It would be one thing if Leake wasn’t just as good as Strasburg in college. And if he didn’t have some promising starts at the AFL. But he was and he did. SOOO underrated...I'll say it again, but I think there's more than a 25% chance that Leake will have a better career than Stephen Strasburg--could last a lot longer.
Reds tattoo man video
Slyde already posted the pics. Here's the video. He predicts the Reds will win the WS - and that was before we signed Cabrera. What a fan!
Yonder Alonso interview
Yonder Alonso talks about his offseason and artfully dodges a question about the future of 1B for the Reds. When asked further he admits to working out in LF and RF.
mlb.com talks about Chris Heisey
MLB.com takes a look at the Reds 2009 Minor League Player of the Year, outfielder Chris Heisey. The mlb.com reporter, Lisa Winston, raves about Heisey's makeup and well-rounded skill set and thinks LF is between him and Dickerson.
Highlights from Joe Morgan's '75 World Series heroics
Maybe the worst highlight music I've ever heard. Given the era they were highlighting, the music should've been much swankier.
Scott Rolen Caravan interview
Courtesy of Jamie Ramsey, the Reds assistant director of media relations. BK tweeted that Rolen looks like Roy from The Office, and I have to agree. Let's just hope he avoids Dwight's pepper spray this season. The linked page is the main menu for a number of videos taken at the Caravan.

Poll

Thumbs up or down on the Cabrera deal?

Up

232 votes

Down

25 votes

Thumbless

65 votes

322 votes | Poll has closed

RR Community Prospect Rankings: He's Hungry Like a Wolf

2010-02-01T12:00:52Z

Or does he have the eye of the tiger?

View full size photo »

Juan Duran Duran wins the #20 prospect ranking for 2010. This kid is still really young, and has perhaps the highest ceiling in the organization, but also has an excellent chance of never making it past AA. Let's hope he can take some positive steps this season.

For #21 you get no new candidates, but there are still 8 intriguing guys still on the board, so vote!

Logan Ondrusek, RHRP:

Donnie Joseph, LHRP:

Very effective in Billings and Dayton last season. Lots of strikeouts (11.34K/9), control may be an issue. Held hitters to a .165 average, and didn't give up any long balls in 33.1 IP. Downright nasty against lefties, and could move up the system quickly. Two pitch pitcher, with a fastball in the low 90s up to around 94, and an above average slider with plenty of break. Also known as a high-character guy.

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 11
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 3rd round (88th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Houston (NCAA): 31 G, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 50 IP, 75 K, 22 BB, 1.10 WHIP
Billings (Rookie): 8 G, 2-0, 0.77 ERA, 11.2 IP, 11 K, 4 BB, .86 WHIP
Dayton (A): 16 G, 2-2, 4.35 ERA, 20.2 IP, 31 K, 10 BB, 1.11 WHIP

Josh Fellhauer, CF:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: 13
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 7th round (209th pick), Reds, 2009
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Cal State Fullerton (NCAA): 60 G, 227 AB, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 18 SB, .396/.478/.529/1.007
Dayton (A): 57 G, 236 AB, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, .280/.351/.453/.804

Mariekson (D.D.) Gregorius, SS:

2009 Statistics:

Billings (Rookie): 50 G, 204 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB, .314/.363/.387/.750
Sarasota (A+): 22 G, 71 AB, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .254/.274/.310/.584

Miguel Rojas, SS:

Baseball America rank: NR
2009 RR CPR rank: NR
2010 John Sickels Rank: NR
Age: 21
Draft/Acquisition Details: Signed in 2008 out of Venezuela
Highest Level Played: A (Dayton)

2009 Statistics:

Dayton (A): 130 G, 469 AB, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, .273/.326/.339/.665

Sam LeCure, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Louisville (AAA): 25 GS, 10-8, 4.46 ERA, 142.1 IP, 125 K, 44 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Cibaenas (DWL): 4 G (2 GS), 0-2, 8.59 ERA, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 2.32 WHIP

Juan Silva, CF:

2009 Statistics:

GCL Reds (Rookie): 42 G, 140 AB, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .279/.373/.464/.837

Mark Serrano, RHSP:

2009 Statistics:

Poll

Who is the Reds #21 prospect?

Logan Ondrusek

34 votes

Donnie Joseph

37 votes

Josh Fellhauer

16 votes

DD Gregorius

13 votes

Miguel Rojas

16 votes

Sam LeCure

18 votes

Juan Silva

9 votes

Mark Serrano

8 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Camp Day 1: Where Herm Winningham Gives Me The Yips

2010-02-01T01:22:31Z

My locker

View full size photo »

We jumped right into the action today at Reds Fantasy Camp. After a tasty, complimentary hot breakfast at the hotel, we headed over to the park in Goodyear, Arizona. First impression: BEAUTIFUL! Seriously, the fields are pristine, the facilities are first class all the way. They don't appear to have cut any corners anywhere in this place. It truly is an first class facility. And we haven't even seen the park yet.

When we got to the camp, we went to get dressed in our lockers...our fully stocked lockers. Two jerseys, two undershirts, a pair of pants, a warm up jacket, a hat, and socks. It's really is a thrill to see your name on a jersey in your very own locker.

Unfortunately, that's the only picture I have from the day because we forgot to bring cameras to the park and I didn't take my phone out to the workout or game.

We started with some batting practice, a little stretching and throwing, and then we cycled through various workouts. Our group went to hitting practice first. I was satisfied with my effort. Nothing special, but I had a couple of solid rips.

Next, we went to outfield drills. And that's where Herm Winningham got in my head. To say I had some issues on the flyballs would be an understatement. I caught the first ball, but used my bare hand to keep it from flying out of the glove. That's when Herm started giving me the business, "You're gonna break your hand!" Next ball went off my glove as I was so focused on not bringing my bare hand into it. After that, I was misreading and stumbling left and right. I had no confidence on fly balls the rest of the day.

I did redeem myself in infield practice, which is where we went next. I blew one ground ball, but to be fair, it had some wicked spin on it. I feel much more confident on ground balls than I do on fly balls at this point, which is the exact opposite of where I was before today started. Damn you, Herm!

We did some pitching so that the coaches could see who could handle standing on the mound. I threw more strikes than I expected, but I'd be surprised if I did any more pitching outside of an emergency inning.

After the pitching, we broke for lunch while the coaches all went to draft their teams. My brother and I were selected to be on Brad "The Animal" Lesley's and Joe Oliver's team. For those that have never met Lesley, he's a huge bald guy...kinda looks like Mr. Clean. Oliver is a talker, but he's got nothing on Lesley. (And neither player is in Herm's class. Damn you, Herm!)

Our first game was this afternoon. We were in our road red jerseys and failed to dent the plate in the first inning. The other team put 3 up on the board in the bottom of the inning. We responded with 3 in the 2nd and then the game shifted into a pitcher's duel. Our pitchers shut the opponents down, not surrendering another run in the next 5 innings, and barely even giving up base runners. Our hitters were pounding the ball, but we hit more balls right at defenders than should be allowed by law. In particular, the other team's center field caught at least 4 line drives that were snow cone catches. We had more rallies snuffed out on hard hit balls that I've ever seen.

Then came the 7th and final inning. I was playing second base and the leadoff hitter hit a routine popup to me. And all I could hear, both literally and figuratively, was Herm Winningham's voice (he was the opposing team's coach and does not stop talking. Ever.). The ball hit off the heel of my glove and dropped to the ground, allowing the lead-off hitter to reach base.

The very next hitter hit a ground ball to me, but it was a slow roller and my only play was at first base. The runner advanced to 2nd. The following hitter grounded out to 3B and the runner advanced again. With two outs and two strikes (it should have been 3 strikes. C'mon, Blue!), a bloop to left was all they needed to win the game.

At the plate, I was 2 for 3 with two infield singles and a strikeout - yep, the curveball got me. I feel comfortable at the plate. Just have to keep working on my timing.

In all, it was a fun day. The weather today was incredible. In fact, it was so good, we might have been spoiled by it. I avoided getting injured, which was my goal. I'm going to be sore, no doubt about that. But that's what the alcohol is for tonight. That and to get Herm's voice out of my head.

Reds sign Orlando Cabrera, per Tim Brown

2010-01-31T04:35:41Z

Reds sign Orlando Cabrera, per Tim Brown

Remember back in 2004 when the O.C. was good?

Yahoo's Tim Brown is reporting that the Reds have signed Orlando Cabrera for $3 million with a $3 million option for next year. I'm not sure if it's a team, player, or mutual option.

Ultimately, Cabrera wanted the chance to stay at shortstop, which the Rockies weren't going to give him. So he looks to be our new starting shortstop, pushing Paul Janish to the bench/bullpen. The theory, of course, is that Cabrera's offense will be an upgrade over Janish's. JinAZ takes a good look at that supposition below.

His slash line for last year was .284/.316/.389, an OPS+ of 86. He hit 10 sacrifice flies, so he can "get 'em in."

Cabrera is 35.

Reds likely to sign Orlando Cabrera

2010-01-31T02:33:14Z

While Slyde's out living the dream, we here at Red Reporter have serious issues to contend with.

Word 'round the campfire is that Orlando Cabrera is very close to signing a deal with the Reds. Let's take a look at his recent numbers and some projections, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Offense

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRAA	wRAR
2007	32.7	LAA	701	9%	6%	18%	0.319	0.301	0.344	0.397	0.096	0.339	1.7	25.8
2008	33.7	CHA	730	10%	8%	21%	0.301	0.281	0.333	0.371	0.089	0.315	-11.2	13.0
2009	34.7	OAK/MIN	708	10%	5%	19%	0.302	0.284	0.314	0.389	0.105	0.316	-11.2	12.1
2010	35.7	CHONE	631	10%	7%	---	0.299	0.275	0.326	0.374	0.099	0.319	-8.1	10.8
2010	35.7	Marcel	627	11%	7%	---	0.297	0.276	0.321	0.381	0.105	0.318	-8.6	10.2
2010	35.7	Fans(33)	615	11%	6%	---	0.305	0.282	0.325	0.377	0.095	0.316	-9.9	8.6

Cabrera's most recent season as a league-average hitter came in 2007 on a fine Angels team. That offseason, however, he was traded for Jon Garland, and he hasn't really produced offensively since. He's a good contact guy, but he's never had a ton of power nor much inclination to take a walk (career walk rate = 6.5%, career OBP = 0.322). He has occasionally flashed modest power for a middle-infielder, but the last time he topped 10 HR was 2004, and the last time he topped 0.400 SLG was 2006 despite the relatively high batting average. His speed game might be starting to slow as well: he averaged 21 SB & 4 CS per season from 2001-2008, but was just 13-4 last year.

The three projections I'm listing here put him right about a +10 RAR offensive player next season. That's largely based on durability--Cabrera hasn't posted less than 600 PA since 2005! Fans project him at 88% playing time, which is very impressive. If he starts to lose playing time due to ineffectiveness, however, he starts to fall down into the +5 RAR area offensively...

Fielding

Of course, his calling card has never been his offense: Cabrera has made his money by being adequate with the stick while flashing a fine glove. He just turned 35, however, and is at a point when players often do slip defensively. His projection isn't that bad: Zimmerman's UZR projections put him at +1 runs, TotalZone puts him at -15 runs (more on that in a sec), and the Fans Scouting Report put him at -5 runs. Averaging all three, as I did with Tejada, puts him at -6 runs per season next year.

As ken pointed out with Tejada, this might be a conservative way of making a fielding projection for an older player. You should never focus too much on a single year of fielding data, but Cabrera posted a career low -14 UZR last season and a career-worst -17 runs by TotalZone. TZ seems to factor this more recent year in more heavily in its projection. And the Fans Scouting Report, which, despite my infatuation with it, does tend to give aging, former plus-defenders a pass for too long...even they rated him as a -5 run per season defender. I think the reasonable thing to do is project him as somewhere between a -5 to -10 run fielder at SS per season (at 88% playing time, that makes him down to a 4-9 run fielder).

Below the jump, we arrive at a projected value for Cabrera and compare him to Paul Janish.

Projected Value of Cabrera in 2010

Summing it all up, assuming 88% playing time:

Offense: -9 runs
Fielding: -4 to -9 runs
Position: +7.5 runs * 88% = +7 runs
Replacement: +22.5 runs (based on context-neutral offensive projections) * 88% = +20
Total: +9 to +14 runs, or ~+1 to +1.5 Wins Above Replacement

Based on $3.5 M per WAR contracts, that puts his value somewhere around $3.5 M to $5.3 M per season...again, that's assuming 88% playing time, which is optimistic for a below-average player despite his history of durability. I'll be interested to see where the Reds offer came in.

Update: Tim Brown of Yahoo reports it's a $3 M/1 yr contract, with an option. That's at the bottom end of the range I'm calculating. My immediate reaction? Probably means that the rest of baseball thinks his 2009 fielding numbers were for real. That's not good--I'd hoped he'd sign for something closer to $6 M.

Update 2/2/2010: Mark Sheldan reports that his salary is actually $2.02 M in 2010, with a $4M mutual option ($1 M club buyout, $500K player "buyout"). That means the Reds commit only $3 M, assuming they buy Cabrera out of 2011. Again, in a way, that's good for the Reds as he's cheap. In another way, it means that the rest of MLB think that Cabrera has significantly reduced range.

But what about Paul Janish?

...The big question in my mind, of course, is whether Cabrera is an upgrade over the guy the Reds already had penciled into the starting role, Paul Janish. Here's the projection on Janish:

Playing time: Fans project 508 PA's, which is 73% playing time. All numbers below reflect that PT estimate:

Offense: [-16 (CHONE) + -15 (Marcel) + -21 (Fans) ] / 3 = -17 runs
Fielding*: [+9 (fans) + 4 (TZ) ] / 2 = + 7 runs
Position: +7.5 runs * 73% = +6 runs
Replacement: +20 runs * 73% = 15 runs
Total: +11 runs, ~+1 WAR

* I'm ignoring UZR projections because they are based on such a small sample and thus are heavily regressed, but fwiw they rate him at +6 runs per season. TZ numbers include minor league data, while Fans data are scouting data and therefore are not as volatile as other fielding data.

Basically, it comes down to how good you think Cabrera's glove is. If he's still a -5 run fielder, this is a slight upgrade for the Reds, mostly because of Cabrera's demonstrated durability. If he's a -10 fielder--and he might be--it's a wash...or worse, should he start to lose playing time.

~~Update (2/1/10):~~ ~~I realized that I forgot to address the issue of draft pick compensation for the Cabrera signing. Cabrera is a~~ ~~class-A free agent~~ according to the Elias rankings. If the Reds had been good last year, this would mean they'd have to give up their first round pick in exchange for signing him. As it is, however, with the Reds picking in the first 15 this June, they only have to give up a second-around selection. After accounting for the signing bonus, this is worth ~$0.8 million, according to ~~Victor Wang's work~~ this past summer. That's only about 0.25 WAR in value, so it's not a big deal...but given that Cabrera is being paid as a 1 WAR player (the equivalent of Janish's projectable value), it's another knock against this signing.
Nevermind :)

Fantasy Camp: I'm Leaving on a Jet Plane!

2010-01-30T14:00:19Z

I know I haven't been around much lately, but I thought I should let you know that I'm leaving for vacation this morning. That's right, suckas, it's time for Reds Fantasy Camp! By the time most of you are rolling out of bed at 2pm this afternoon, I'll be in mostly sunny Phoenix, Arizona!

Tonight is mainly preliminary stuff. We have a little get together, maybe a few drinks, get our schedule, meet the other campers, and then it's lights out, mister! I probably won't have much of an update tonight, but I expect to be able to give you updates every day for the rest of the week.

My prediction for the week comes from America's Sweetheart, Clubber Lang, "Prediction?...Pain." My one goal for this week is to not run into a serious injury. If I can avoid that, it will be a success.

And to be honest, that's probably the most realistic goal I can set because if you'd seen me in the batting cage, you'd know that I'm a mix of the worst parts of Quinton McCracken and Wily Mo Pena. My best hope is that I hit it to guys that can't field it very well.

Hopefully I'll have some pictures and video for you tomorrow, or at least some time this week. Enjoy the week while I'm away. I won't be thinking of you!

(Check out the classic Seinfeld clip after the jump. Enjoy the cold!)