Red Reporter

Fan Projections: Get the Vote Out for Reds Players

2009-12-23T15:06:15Z

I was just looking through the fan projections at FanGraphs and I noticed that only 4 Reds players have enough projections cast for them to qualify them for listing on FanGraphs projection page. Looks like we need to do some ballot stuffing!

Here are the projections so far for the 4 qualifying players:

Joey Votto: .309/.396/.530 (.396 wOBA), 4.9 WAR
Jay Bruce: .269/.341/.495 (.358 wOBA), 3.2 WAR
Drew Stubbs: .265/.336/.385 (.330 wOBA), 2.5 WAR
Aaron Harang: 11-10, 4.20 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 3.0 WAR

Click any of the names to be taken to that player's projection edit page and you can enter a projection of your own. (NOTE: You need a FanGraphs account to create a projection. It's free and then don't hassle you at all, so don't fret!)

The reason that these guys all passed the voting threshold is because FanGraphs featured each of them at one time or another on their site. In an attempt to boost the number of votes for some other players, here are direct links to the some of the projected starters for the Reds:

Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Paul Janish
Wladimir Balentien
Chris Dickerson
Ryan Hanigan
Ramon Hernandez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey

For many of you, this may be the last day of work this year. You don't want to spend it doing actual work, do you? Take some time and fill out these projections for players with your best guess as to how they will perform and let's see what kind of a team we've got on our hands right now. (Then again, that might just ruin our holiday cheer)

Heroes of the Zeros: Left Field

2009-12-23T13:00:29Z

Of all of the positions on the All Decade Team, this one should be the clearest no-brainer. One person started 53% of the games in LF during the decade and had the best offensive numbers. The Reds did have some decent other hitters in LF, but none of them had the playing time to match up in my opinion.

Ballot is after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Wladimir Balentien	2009	40	125	110	12	29	7	1	3	11	15	27	.264	.352	.427	.779	104	.345	0.5
Russell Branyan	2002-2003	158	460	393	56	91	21	1	25	65	61	155	.232	.337	.481	.818	112	.348	2.2
Jolbert Cabrera	2008	48	126	115	17	29	6	1	3	12	8	29	.252	.310	.400	.710	84	.305	-0.3
Brady Clark	2000-2002	151	242	206	29	47	7	0	6	29	28	27	.228	.325	.350	.674	73	.291	-0.6
Chris Dickerson	2008-2009	128	421	357	51	101	22	5	8	30	56	101	.283	.383	.440	.823	116	.361	2.7
Adam Dunn	2001-2008	1087	4562	3727	678	920	192	8	270	646	755	1212	.247	.380	.520	.900	130	.376	22.2
Jason Ellison	2007	37	56	48	7	9	1	0	1	2	5	15	.188	.278	.271	.549	41	.247	0.3
Jonny Gomes	2009	98	314	281	39	75	17	0	20	51	26	85	.267	.338	.541	.879	127	.367	0.6
Quinton McCracken	2006	45	60	53	5	11	1	1	1	2	4	9	.208	.263	.321	.584	47	.247	0.2
Darnell McDonald	2009	47	111	105	12	28	6	1	2	10	5	31	.267	.306	.400	.706	84	.309	-0.3
Laynce Nix	2009	116	337	309	42	74	26	1	15	46	22	81	.239	.291	.476	.767	98	.318	2.0
Deion Sanders	2001	32	83	75	6	13	2	0	1	4	4	10	.173	.235	.240	.475	21	.215	-1.0
Dernell Stenson	2003	37	93	81	14	20	5	0	3	13	11	24	.247	.333	.420	.753	100	.331	0.8
Dmitri Young	2000-2001	294	1179	1088	136	329	65	9	39	157	73	157	.302	.348	.486	.835	108	.350	1.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 12/22/2009.
WAR data made available from BaseballProjection.com
wOBA calculated via the formula included in The Book and does not include SB data.

Red Reposter - Reds Make Decent, Sensible Move; Surprise the Hell Out of Internet Jerks

2009-12-22T15:00:26Z

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Scott Rolen is a pretty good baseball player, which is good, 'cause he's gonna be here a while.

Browse more photos »

Jorge Says No! likes the deal for both the Reds and Scott Rolen
Saying it gives the Reds flexibility and gives Rolen security. "I have a hard time thinking that in 2012 we'll think that this deal was fantastic, but in the short term, it accomplished an important goal for the Reds and now gives them the opportunity (albeit a small one) to spend money on some players."
Shawn at the Reds FanHuddle blog isn't wildly enthusiastic about the Rolen extension
but he doesn't seem terribly disappointed either.
DJ Short at Circling the Bases says it's "more than a fair deal"
for the Reds, assuming Rolen stays healthy. Bonus for freeing up $$ to "improve in other areas".
raygu at Fake Teams likes the Rolen extension too
The payroll flexibility is what intrigues him the most, as he wonders out loud if the money freed up in the Rolen extension could be used to eat more of Aaron Harang's salary in a dump trade with the Dodgers. It's an intriguing scenario, and one I hadn't heard yet.
Fonzie Forever has a very interesting post comparing Aaron Harang to John Lackey
I gotta say, it certainly raised my eyebrows. Harang has been Lackey's near-equal over the course of their careers, and Lackey just signed a deal with Boston for $82.5 mil. It's been widely rumored that for the Reds to trade ~~Dangerfield~~ Harang, they would have to eat at least half his salary.
Patriot takes a look at how lead-off hitters fared around the league
He uses a variety of different metrics and attacks the question from a variety of different angles, but one of the overwhelming conclusions to be drawn is "Willy Taveras managed to do what Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, and friends could not in 2008--lead the Reds leadoff slot to the bottom of the rankings". Faaaaaantastic.
Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs backs me up on what I was saying about evaluating deals and trades
He says the Gary Matthews Jr contract looks like a bear now, but at the time the deal was made it really wasn't so bad. Lil Sarge was coming off a 3-year stretch averaging over 3 WAR a season, so the 5-year $50 mil contract he got from the Angels, though a little long in years, was about right on market value. Of course, Matthews has been terrible since going to LA, but it's not good process to evaluate deals based on results, right?
Sheldon updates us on Edinson Volquez' rehab in his latest Inbox
He hopes to start throwing in January, but he's taking it slow to be on the safe side. He also dropped 12 pounds in a month. I didn't think he had that much to lose.
Erik Manning asks the Cubs just what they think they are doing
The Milton Bradley-Carlos Silva deal basically switches out Bradley and Tom Gorzelanny for Marlon Byrd (whom they are rumored to want for CF) and Silva, a switch that nets them a pretty tidy loss of a few wins. Keep f**king that chicken, Chicago!

Heroes of the Zeros: Shortstop

2009-12-22T13:00:17Z

All of you people who have been saying, "Wow, this has to be the worst position ever," here's the list you've been waiting for. It's kind of funny that coming into the aughts, the Reds were riding basically 48 straight seasons with 4 starting SS, all of pretty good quality. Since then, well, not so much. Good luck finding a worthy starter in this list. I really have no idea who is going to win this one. Voting is after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Juan Castro	2000-2008	571	1469	1361	130	323	70	6	25	125	76	244	.237	.276	.353	.628	61	.269	-4.6
Royce Clayton	2006	50	164	149	13	35	8	0	2	13	11	32	.235	.290	.329	.619	56	.274	-0.7
Travis Dawkins	2000-2002	45	99	89	7	15	4	0	0	3	8	28	.169	.237	.213	.451	17	.201	-0.8
Alex Gonzalez	2007-2009	178	700	636	71	158	39	1	19	81	39	111	.248	.299	.403	.702	79	.297	1.5
Wilton Guerrero	2001-2002	119	236	220	25	67	6	2	1	12	9	30	.305	.332	.364	.696	78	.302	-0.7
Jerry Hairston	2008-2009	166	637	568	94	163	38	3	14	63	44	82	.287	.342	.438	.780	103	.334	2.5
Paul Janish	2008-2009	128	381	336	41	69	23	0	2	22	33	58	.205	.290	.292	.582	54	.263	0.9
Jeff Keppinger	2007-2008	188	778	700	84	202	40	4	8	75	54	36	.289	.342	.391	.733	90	.318	1.1
Barry Larkin	2000-2004	473	1850	1646	266	456	106	11	30	167	175	184	.277	.347	.409	.757	95	.329	4.6
Felipe Lopez	2003-2006	371	1566	1384	215	367	73	10	41	159	157	317	.265	.340	.421	.761	97	.331	2.7
Ray Olmedo	2003-2006	171	388	352	39	81	12	2	2	25	24	72	.230	.280	.293	.573	52	.254	-2.3
Chris Sexton	2000	35	118	100	9	21	4	0	0	10	13	12	.210	.310	.250	.560	43	.258	-0.3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/20/2009.

Wrapping up the top 100

2009-12-21T17:00:16Z

Now that our countdown is over, I thought it might be appropriate to post some wrap-up thoughts and conclusions.

First, I suppose that you may be wondering about current Reds and where they might stack up against this list. As you might have noted, only one active player made the list, and barely so at that (Brandon Phillips, #98). There are three other players on the current roster that are somewhere in the top 250 or so...

Aaron Harang sits at #134, hampered by injury and ineffectiveness over the last couple seasons. If in 2010 Harang can reprise what he did in 2006-07, he would be a candidate to scrape into the top 100.

Bronson Arroyo ranks as the 149^th greatest Red after his four seasons. While his 2006 was very good, he has settled into a consistent level a couple tiers below that ever since. If he continues on at that level, he is still a couple years away from breaking into the top 100, meaning it's unlikely he'll remain a Red long enough to do so.

Sitting just behind Arroyo, at #151, is Joey Votto --really on the basis of just two seasons played. The quality of Votto's seasons is high-if he can reproduce the value of his 2009, he'll sit somewhere in the #75 neighborhood a year from now.

Coincidentally, recently traded third baseman Edwin Encarnacion ranks between Arroyo and Votto at #150. He's unlikely to improve on that standing. The other 2009 trade-away with any significant tenure was David Weathers, who stands as the 230^th greatest Red (if you guessed that he ranks just behind Ron Robinson, you're right!)

More minutia and analysis after the jump...

One of the things that emerged during this project was that for many of us, some of the old-time players were not only unfamiliar to our collective consciousness, but also had some really bizarre names. In that vein, I present to you five more entries for the all-time name team:

1) Mysterious Walker, pitched briefly for the Reds in 1910
2) Twink Twining, another pitcher of little regard during the 1916 season
3) Pinky Pittenger, a middle infielder who played from 1927-29
4) Pee Wee Wanninger, a 1927 shortstop
5) Frenchy Bordagaray, also from 1939, played a bit of left field

A couple of those guys, were they to be acquired today, might just cause Red Reporter's whole head to explode.

************************************************************************

For the next segment, I took the top 100 group, and did some sorting and digging, to see if anything interesting popped up...

First, let's look at the breakdown of the top 100 players, sorted by primary position:

Starting pitcher; 26

Relief pitcher, 3

Catcher, 8

First Baseman, 11

Second Baseman, 8

Third Baseman, 10

Shortstop, 7

Left Field, 6

Center Field, 10

Right Field, 11

That doesn't seem like it tells us much of anything. Let's move on.

What if were to track a count of top-100 guys, and how many of them were represented in each calendar year they played for the Reds? On the one hand, there's a bit of a problem presented by assuming all top-100 players are equally valuable, or that player #100 is significant while #101 is not, but let's see what happens:

That's something, I guess. 13 top-100 guys on that 1973 roster. The data looks a bit choppy, though. What if we use 5-year rolling averages:

The year listed is the middle of the 5 year data set, and again we see a peak in the mid-70s which makes sense, but I think we can get a little bit more refined.

This next graph shows rolling averages of the percentage of the team's total win shares accounted for by top-100 players (for example, if a 80 win team was good for 240 win shares, and that team had 3 players that ended up on the top-100 list, each player with 20 win shares, that season would get a .25 score on the following chart):

This provides an interesting comparison to how successful the team has been over the years:

Bullet point observations:

Originally, I was surprised at how closely these two graphs tracked with each other, since I assumed that the bad teams of history might have one or two good players who ate up a higher percentage of a team's value. After further consideration, however, it's been made clear that a team can't win on the basis of one or two good players. Remember that Aaron Boone and Danny Graves are tail-end top-100 guys. A winning team would need them, plus 4 or 5 or 6 players who were even better.
The graph doesn't seem to track at all prior to 1900. I think this is probably due to the smaller rosters and completely different usage patterns as compared to the modern game.
The Reds had an underappreciated period during the 1920's, with 3 2^nd place finishes between 1922-26.
The ramp-up to the Big Red Machine was steady and determined: starting in the mid-1950's, the team had very few bad seasons. They were good, won a pennant, went back to being good again, then elevated to be a special team in the mid-70's. The sharp drop-off in the early 80's must have been particularly jarring to long-time fans at the time.
The Reds have had their droughts before: seven straight losing seasons from 1910-16 (average winning percentage of .442), nine straight from 1929-37 (.399), eleven straight from 1945-55 (.442), and now nine straight (and counting!) from 2001-09 (.457). If you discount the post WWII stretch due to, er...World War 2 and its effects, then this current era is arguably the 2^nd worst in franchise history.
Originally, in this space, I had written what were some high-level conclusions drawn from the graphs above, the state of the current team, and what it meant going forward. The tone of it was more pessimistic than I wanted, and it was missing one of the "lessons" of this project, namely that some of the best players on the best teams come out of nowhere (see: Bucky Walters and George Foster). So, I'm not making any predictions. We know the team hasn't been good, we think there's a few promising youngsters (with one potential carry-the-team-on-his-back guy), and we hope for a couple out-of-the-woodwork surprises. We'll do the same this time next year.

***********************************************************************

Finally, a few words about the Big Red Machine, another topic where I'm simply adding to the millions of words already spilled. My perspective, however, coming out of this top 100 exercise, is just how unlikely it all was. I can't imagine too many other franchises drawing from well over a century's worth of teams, and ending up with six of the top 12 who happened to be teammates for a minimum of five straight years, with several of the combinations lasting much longer than that (Davey and Johnny were teammates for 14 straight seasons, Pete and Tony for 13 straight). Part of that is a by-product of itself; the players were good, therefore the team was really good, therefore the players were kept around for a long time, therefore they rank pretty high on the list. The only parallel I could think of was maybe the Orioles who: a) were also really good in the 70's; b) also do not have an otherwise exceptional history; and c) employed Frank Robinson.

The success of the Big Red Machine wasn't altogether exceptional; there have been other teams with great stretches, some even greater. The BRM tends to be highlighted, in my opinion, because they were so lopsided in favor of the offense, which was a great one. Easier to get excited about, perhaps. At any rate, the Big Red Machine era seems so extraordinary, partly because it stands out so singularly in the franchise's history. Since 1900, the Reds have had 12 seasons with a winning percentage above .600. Half of those came between 1970 and 1976. Otherwise, as a rule, the historical record is scattered with onesies and twosies. Free agency, varying levels of parity, and the sheer fact that dynasties are rare are all factors in this; nonetheless, the Reds have spawned exactly one dynasty (or even mini-dynasty) in its history.

The funny thing about the Big Red Machine is that they still feel like a relatively recent phenomenon, despite the passage of 40 years time since Sparky was hired. Maybe part of that is due to the direct link from that era that continues to call the games over the airwaves. Or maybe that the heroes from those days are still with us, many of them still connected to the game. Or maybe that the Reds, for the better part of a decade, set an impossible standard that will loom large over whatever accomplishments the present and future Reds teams are able to achieve.

*************************************************

To officially close this project, I would like to say thank you to:

Baseballreference.com, for being awesome
Dave Studeman, for producing a Win Shares database
Wikipedia, for being a go-to resource on basic biographical details
Red Reporter, for being the best Reds-related blog in the intertubes

Fin.

Heroes of the Zeros: Third Base

2009-12-21T13:00:22Z

During the aughts, the Reds had 39 different players play at least one game at 3B, including Javier Valentin, Jason Larue, Dmitri Young, and Wily Mo Pena. There was also a fan favorite, a fan whipping boy, and a guy that is more famous for a single swing on another team than anything he did with the Reds. Who do you think is the starting 3B for the Reds All Decade team? Vote in the poll after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation | Bullpen | Catcher | First base | Second base

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Aaron Boone	2000-2003	455	1889	1681	242	451	101	7	70	257	144	308	.268	.335	.462	.797	103	.339	8.4
Edwin Encarnacion	2005-2009	514	2000	1764	236	462	109	4	71	263	185	364	.262	.345	.449	.793	103	.344	1.4
Tim Hummel	2003-2004	82	219	194	19	43	9	0	3	17	16	30	.222	.285	.314	.599	58	.258	-0.9
Brandon Larson	2001-2004	109	332	291	29	52	11	0	8	37	35	86	.179	.271	.299	.570	49	.258	-1.4
Andy Phillips	2008	52	80	73	11	17	3	0	3	10	6	14	.233	.300	.397	.697	80	.307	-0.2
Joe Randa	2005	92	368	332	44	96	26	1	13	48	33	52	.289	.356	.491	.847	120	.362	1.3
Scott Rolen	2009	40	162	137	24	37	7	1	3	24	19	20	.270	.364	.401	.766	102	.342	0.9
Adam Rosales	2008-2009	105	296	259	23	55	11	1	4	21	27	50	.212	.296	.309	.605	60	.275	-0.3
Chris Stynes	2000	119	420	380	71	127	24	1	12	40	32	54	.334	.386	.497	.883	120	.378	2.5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/18/2009.

The Rolen Extension, by the numbers

2009-12-20T03:17:45Z

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

With his new extension, Scott Rolen will be manning the hot corner for the next three years...provided he can stay healthy.

Browse more photos »

Overall reaction seems positive in the news thread. I wanted to run the numbers, though, just to see.

What the Reds are Paying:

Assuming the signing bonus is paid evenly over the three years ($1.7M/yr), and making some guesstimates about current and future WAR/$ exchange rates, the Reds are paying:

$7.7 M in 2010 @ $4.5 M/WAR = 1.7 WAR
$8.2 M in 2011 @ $4.7 M/WAR = 1.7 WAR
$8.2 M in 2012 @ $5.0 M/WAR = 1.6 WAR
Total contract value: 5 WAR over life of contract.

How Rolen Projects:

Offense: I averaged the CHONE and ZiPS projections for Rolen in 2010. That gives this projection: 463 PA's (66% playing time), 0.277/0.352/0.432 slash line, 11 HR, 0.347 wOBA, 4.8 RAA after park adjustments = 0.51 WAR. An aging but still effective hitter, at least when he's in the lineup.

Fielding: both Jeff Zimmerman's UZR/150 projections as well as CHONE's fielding projections have Rolen at 7 RAA per season. Fan Scouting Report had him at +18 runs last season (weighted average of his totals from TOR and CIN fans). Average of the three approaches puts him at 10.6 runs per season. Given the playing time estimates above, that projects him at 7 RAA = 0.75 WAR. Still an excellent defensive 3B.

Position Adjustment: +0.25 per full season for 3B, prorates to +0.17 WAR given the playing time estimates.

Replacement level: 2 WAR/season in the NL, which prorates to 1.3 WAR given the playing time estimates.

Overall, assuming 0.5 win/yr aging:

2010: 0.51 + 0.75 + 0.17 + 1.3 = 2.7 WAR
2011: 2.2 WAR
2012: 1.7 WAR
Total expected: 6.6 WAR

Given his age and injury history, you can argue that we should use slightly higher aging rates than this. You can also argue that free agent salaries are actually coming in lower than $4.5 M per WAR this year (though I think it's too early to make that call). Nevertheless, I think it's fair to say that this deal is, at WORST, a market-even deal....and most likely represents a nice little surplus. Congrats to the Reds on a nice deal.

Update 12/20/09: I noticed an error in how I was applying a park correction to his offensive projection. This has been fixed above. It did not change the conclusions, but did pull 0.2 WAR/season off of his projections. I apologize for being a dork.

Reds extend Rolen through 2012, save $$$ for this season

2009-12-19T18:50:20Z

Reds extend Rolen through 2012, save $$$ for this season

Rolen to earn $6 million in 2010 versus the $11 mil he was originally owed. $6.5 million in 2011 and 2012 plus a $5 mil signing bonus to be payed out over the three years

Reds sign Laynce Nix to a minor league deal

2009-12-18T21:11:07Z

Reds sign Laynce Nix to a minor league deal

Thanks to Cincinnati Reds Twitter for such exciting news:
Reds sign OF Laynce Nix to minor league contract with invitation to Major League spring training camp.

That ought to do it!

The Greatest Reds: #1

2009-12-18T17:00:16Z

1. Pete Rose

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1963-78, 1984-86	LF, 3B, 2B, RF, 1B	1	4	2
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
84%	16%	0%	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Most Valuable Player – 1973 Rookie of Year – 1963 World Series MVP – 1975 Hutch Award – 1968 Lou Gehrig Award – 1969 Roberto Clemente Award – 1976 Gold Glove – 1969, 1970 All Star – 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1985	Hits – 1965, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1976 Plate Appearances – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1978 At Bats – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1977 On Base Percentage – 1968 Batting Average – 1968, 1969, 1973 Runs Scored – 1969, 1974, 1975, 1976 Singles – 1973 Doubles – 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978		-1st in career runs scored -1st in career doubles -1st in career hits -1st in career walks -4th in career RBI

via www.mkrob.com

Peter Edward Rose, perhaps more than any man in the history of the world, was built to hit .300. One suspects that it was not only important to him (you just *know* he kept track of his stats), but that there was some sort of innate necessity—like an internal magnet that drew him towards a .300 batting average. I say this for a variety of reasons: one, Rose played for a really, really long time, came up to bat more than anyone ever, and hit .303 for that career. But at the end of his career, he had—as player/manager—the ability to write himself in or out of the lineup. As his skills dimmed (he hit just .219 in his final season), he had the power to ensure that his lifetime mark stayed above that magic line. More interesting, however, is just how balanced it all was after 14,000 at-bats. Rose hit .302 in day games, .303 at night. He hit .303 on grass, and the same on turf. Domed stadiums presented no trouble (.301). He wasn’t a total robot—for example he was a better left-handed hitter than right—but it must have seemed that way to opponents, at times. From 1965 through 1980, Rose managed at least 175 hits in each season—and often times posted many more than that. Too much has been written about Rose, much of it either overly positive or overly negative. Here, then, are five observations about Rose, rooted primarily in fact and data:

1) Rose was at least a little bit lucky that Tommy Helms wasn’t either a bit older or a bit better. Rose won Rookie of the Year in 1963, due in part to the fact that there weren’t many good candidates that year (he had just a 101 OPS+, and was caught stealing more times than he was successful). The following season, Rose was pretty bad—80 OPS+, didn’t field particularly well, etc. The Reds had Helms, another 2nd baseman, in AAA that year, and he was just not quite ready for prime time. Actually, as his career unveiled, it turned out he wasn’t quite good enough to be foundational to a winning team. Rose bounced back in ’65 (led the league in hits, finished 6th in MVP voting), but an impatient team or a better alternative at 2nd base might have changed his situation considerably.

2) Rose bounced from position to position, generally at four-year intervals, and didn’t play any of them particularly well. Honestly, one of the great surprises in this entire project was that Rose won two Gold Glove awards, while playing right field, but I would guess that a retrospective, fielding data-based examination of the results wouldn’t approve. Actually, he was probably a decent enough left fielder in the early 70’s, especially playing alongside Tolan or Geronimo. He didn’t make many errors, and was almost certainly pretty intelligent about throws, or running down flies, etc.

3) One of my favorite unknowable questions in baseball history is this: how many home runs could Pete Rose have hit had he employed a different style of hitting? He certainly didn’t hit very many as it was: just 160 of his 4256 hits went over the fence, and he peaked at 16, twice. From 1972 on, he reached double digit dingers just once. Still, he regularly led the league in doubles (five separate times during his 30’s), and he appeared to be muscular enough to turn some of those doubles into home runs. One imagines that his mental calculus determined that trying for home runs decrease the batting average, and that might mean he drop below .300…

4) Rose played until he was 45 years old. He clearly and transparently played long enough to eclipse Ty Cobb’s hits record. Still, he was good enough in 1985, at age 44, to post a .395 on-base percentage.

5) Throughout his career and its aftermath, Rose was probably a bit overrated. He was flashy, a great quote, a statistical freak given his longevity, and he had an elevated profile in part due to the greatness of his teammates. His peak was very good, but wasn’t other-worldly (he had only two seasons with OPS+ marks above 150, although he was generally on-base heavy). Still, it’s possible that his ridiculous career marks are understated. The indescribably good Baseball-reference.com takes efforts to translate each player’s season to a "neutral" offensive era, whereby teams average just over 4.4 runs per game. Since Rose’s peak took place in the pitcher-friendly 1960’s, he emerges favorably from this exercise, which imagines 4,604 career hits, 800 doubles, and an OPS of 815 instead of his actual 784.

Rose spent 19 seasons with the Reds, came to bat over 12,000 times, scored over 1700 runs, maintained a 124 OPS+, and reached base safely over 4,500 times.

The Top 15 Left Fielders in Reds history

1          Pete Rose
2          Frank Robinson
3          George Foster
4          Adam Dunn
5          Bob Bescher
6          Pat Duncan
7          Kal Daniels
8          Eric Tipton
9          Babe Herman
10        Joe Kelley
11        Dmitri Young
12        Gary Redus
13        Elmer Smith
14        Jerry Lynch
15        Mike Donlin

Heroes of the Zeros: Second Base

2009-12-18T13:00:17Z

Today's installment of vote for the best of the Reds worst moves us to second base. The Reds have seen some decent offense from 2B over the decade, and two of the best defenders they've ever had at the position. However, until Brandon Phillips came along in 2006, it was one of the most unstable positions on the team. This shouldn't be a difficult vote today, but who knows with you guys. Ballot is after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation | Bullpen | Catcher | First base

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Rich Aurilia	2005-2006	236	949	866	122	252	48	3	37	138	71	118	.291	.344	.482	.825	110	.352	3.2
D'Angelo Jimenez	2003-2005	260	1102	958	124	260	48	5	19	103	130	165	.271	.359	.391	.751	98	.335	3.3
Brandon Phillips	2006-2009	601	2542	2329	330	642	108	19	88	345	151	365	.276	.324	.452	.776	98	.330	5.2*
Pokey Reese	2000-2001	268	1051	946	126	228	40	8	21	86	79	168	.241	.303	.367	.670	68	.289	1.5
Donnie Sadler	2001	39	95	84	9	17	3	0	1	3	9	20	.202	.280	.274	.553	42	.251	-0.6
Bill Selby	2001	36	100	92	7	21	7	1	2	12	5	13	.228	.273	.391	.664	66	.277	-0.5
Drew Sutton	2009	42	76	66	10	14	4	1	1	9	7	20	.212	.297	.348	.646	70	.282	0.1
Todd Walker	2001-2002	221	964	873	120	260	59	3	16	96	76	123	.298	.356	.427	.783	101	.338	1.9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/15/2009.

* Because FanGraphs only goes back to 2002, I have been using Sean Smith's WAR Database for WAR values except for 2009, which I have pulled from FanGraphs. Smith's WAR is calculated using different defensive metrics which rate Brandon Phillips much more poorly than I think anyone would actually say he is, and therefore lowers his WAR value dramatically. Using just FanGraphs, Phillips WAR with the Reds is 12.5, which I would guess is closer to a correct valuation of BP. However, for consistency sake, I have only included it in this footnote and am sticking to Smith's WAR in the table.

The Greatest Reds: #2

2009-12-17T18:00:19Z

2. Johnny Bench

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1967-1983	C, 3B, 1B	2	2	4
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1972	1970, 1972
72%	28%	0%	1972	1970, 1972
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1989 Most Valuable Player – 1970, 1972 TSN Player of Year – 1970 Rookie of Year – 1968 World Series MVP – 1976 Lou Gehrig Award – 1975 Babe Ruth Award – 1976 Hutch Award – 1981 Gold Glove – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 All Star – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983	Runs Batted In – 1970, 1972, 1974 Home Runs – 1970, 1972 Extra Base Hits – 1970, 1974 Sacrifice Flies – 1970, 1972, 1973 Intentional Walks – 1972 Total Bases – 1974		-1st in career RBI -1st in career home runs -4th in career runs scored -4th in career doubles -5th in career hits

via artfiles.art.com

Bench is on the short list of the greatest catcher of all time, so there seems little point in what-if scenarios. And the grueling nature of catching makes long-term projections seem suspect. Nonetheless, Johnny Bench—through his age 24 season in 1972—had not only two seasons in which he had 40 or more home runs, but he had also just doubled his walk rate, drawing 100 free passes in 1972. Under typical scenarios and aging patterns, this should have meant some amazing things—if I scale down Bench’s projections from a 1972 vantage point to match his actual playing time over the years due to injuries, etc., he still projected to hit 500 home runs, instead of his actual 389.

As the story goes, a spot was found on an x-ray of Bench’s lungs during the ’72 season, and while the tumor turned out to be benign, he still needed surgery, which—again, as the claim goes—severely impacted Bench’s power at the plate. Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s wishful conjecture from a wistful athlete who happened to peak early, but the fact remains that the early part of Bench’s career was basically meant to blow your mind. Despite being hampered by injury in 1971, Bench had 154 home runs and 512 RBI before turning 25—both representing better starts than Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, or Reggie Jackson, all of whom also got early career starts. For all the impressive hitting stats, by all accounts Bench revolutionized the catcher position defensively. Most fielding statistics cannot possibly do his reputation justice; perhaps only the caught stealing percentages get us close (routinely around 50%, was 13 years into his career before the CS% dropped below 40%), as well as the ten consecutive Gold Glove awards.

The data paints a picture of Bench as a multi-dimensional athlete, especially compared to the prototypical catcher: Bench hit at least one triple in every season until 1979, he was good for a handful of steals every year—peaking at 13 in 1976, and he routinely spelled his legs by playing other positions 20-30 times a year (even playing center field a couple times in 1970). A Cincinnati Red for his entire 17-year career, Bench was productive almost until the end. 1980 was his last season as a regular catcher, crouching behind the plate in 105 games, and hitting for a 123 OPS+. A severely shortened season in 1981 (even beyond the effects of the player strike) left him as a part-time first baseman with a great bat (141 OPS+). The final two years were mostly spent at 3rd base (to poor result, defensively) and hitting right around league average. His legacy is as another lifetime Red, with a cumulative OPS+ of 126 across 8600 plate appearances, with a pair of peak seasons to rival Morgan’s finest.

The Top 15 Catchers in Reds history

1          Johnny Bench
2          Ernie Lombardi
3          Bubbles Hargrave
4          Ed Bailey
5          Johnny Edwards
6          Ray Mueller
7          Ivey Wingo
8          Heinie Peitz
9          Jason LaRue
10        Eddie Taubensee
11        Larry McLean
12        Joe Oliver
13        Farmer Vaughn
14        Tommy Clarke
15        Smoky Burgess

Help plan my baseball class

2009-12-17T16:32:30Z

Help plan my baseball class

I'm teaching a "science of baseball" class in the spring and am requesting advice while generating a topic/reading list.

Heroes of the Zeros: First Base

2009-12-17T13:29:39Z

The debate on who is the All Decade 1B for the aught Reds is an interesting one. First base was a fairly stable position for the Reds during the 2000s, with 3 players accounting for 75% of the starts at the position during the decade. The six players listed below are the players on the Reds during the aughts who played more than 30 games and played 1B more than any other position while with the Reds. The ballot is available after the jump and you are only voting for the starting player.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation | Bullpen | Catcher

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Sean Casey	2000-2005	828	3458	3111	441	944	193	7	86	453	283	332	.303	.366	.453	.819	111	.353	10.8
Jeff Conine	2007	80	242	215	23	57	11	1	6	32	20	28	.265	.320	.409	.729	84	.316	0.0
D.T. Cromer	2000-2001	85	114	104	14	32	7	0	7	20	4	33	.308	.327	.577	.904	122	.354	0.4
Scott Hatteberg	2006-2008	291	1017	869	115	253	58	1	23	105	130	83	.291	.384	.440	.823	109	.358	2.3
Hal Morris	2000	59	78	63	9	14	2	1	2	6	12	10	.222	.351	.381	.732	84	.298	0.3
Joey Votto	2007-2009	306	1222	1079	162	334	77	4	53	185	134	223	.310	.388	.536	.924	139	.386	7.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/15/2009.

The Greatest Reds: #3

2009-12-16T17:00:20Z

3. Joe Morgan

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1972-1979	2B	7	1	1
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1975	1973, 1974, 1975, 1976
83%	17%	0%	1975	1973, 1974, 1975, 1976
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1990 Most Valuable Player – 1975, 1976 TSN Player of Year – 1975, 1976 All Star MVP – 1972 Gold Glove – 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 All Star – 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979	On Base Percentage – 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976 Runs Scored – 1972 Walks – 1972, 1975 OPS+ – 1975, 1976 OPS – 1975, 1976 Slugging Percentage – 1976 Sacrifice Flies – 1976		-2nd in career stolen bases -3rd in career OPS+ -5th in career walks -10th in career runs scored -13th in career home runs

via members.socket.net

Of the 10 best individual seasons by a Reds player since the advent of the live-ball era, five of them belong to Joe Morgan (the ’72-’76 years). Since the "prime" rank is used to describe how good a player was over his best five consecutive seasons, a #1 ranking for Morgan in that category still probably understates his greatness over that stretch (Morgan’s prime score is 22% higher than the #2 guy). Upon being traded to the Reds after the 1971 season, Morgan had already turned 28 years of age, but was probably seen as an underwhelming acquisition: he had only barely topped a .400 slugging percentage in three distinct seasons, had relatively low batting averages, and had only made two all-star teams. This was worth giving up Lee May? Credit the Reds for taking the damaging effects of the Astrodome into account, however, as Morgan had a very respectable 121 OPS+ to that point of his career. Still, I have a hard time believing that the Reds’ brass had any idea just how good a player they were getting.

Words can’t possibly describe this magnificent 5-year stretch, so let’s just lay out the numbers. Remember that this is coming from a 5’7", slick-fielding 2nd baseman… 1972: 292/417/435 (149 OPS+), 122 runs, 73 RBI, 58 SB, 115 BB, 44 K. 1973: 290/406/493 (154 OPS+), 116 runs, 82 RBI, 67 SB, 111 BB, 61 K. 1974: 293/427/494 (159 OPS+), 107 runs, 67 RBI, 58 SB, 120 BB, 69 K. 1975: 327/466/508 (169 OPS+), 107 runs, 94 RBI, 67 SB, 132 BB, 52 K. 1976: 320/444/576 (187 OPS+), 113 runs, 111 RBI, 60 SB, 114 BB, 41 K. Strangely, he was never that good a postseason performer (lifetime postseason OPS of 671), but that’s pretty much the only transgression., although if he had hit at all in the ’72 World Series, the Reds might have won (Morgan had only one hit in the four losses to the A’s, all of which were one-run losses).

Morgan had a really good 1977 season, albeit not quite at the level of the previous five years, then fell down to the status of merely good, with OPS+’s of 105 and 107 in 1978 and ’79, respectively, and Morgan was granted free agency after the 1979 season—leaving the Reds with Junior Kennedy and Ron Oester to man his vacated position as he signed with the Astros. In terms of the brightest star ever to grace Cincy’s ballfields, Morgan is a strong #1 with a cushion—and we’re unlikely to see anything like it in Redsland again. His final numbers for his Reds tenure: just under 5000 plate appearances, over 400 stolen bases, 147 OPS+, 5 Gold Glove awards.

The Top 15 Second Basemen in Reds history

1          Joe Morgan
2          Bid McPhee
3          Lonny Frey
4          Miller Huggins
5          Johnny Temple
6          Ron Oester
7          Hughie Critz
8          Brandon Phillips*
9          Bret Boone
10        Dick Egan
11        Sam Bohne
12        Tommy Helms
13        Pokey Reese
14        Morrie Rath
15        Tony Cuccinello
*active

Heroes of the Zeros: Catcher

2009-12-16T13:00:25Z

Continuing on with our All Decade ballots, today we look at catcher. The Reds haven't had an All Star catcher since Bo Diaz in 1987, but they've still had what could be considered a solid crop of players at backstop since Johnny Bench retired. None of the guys listed below would likely be on most teams' All Decade squad, but that doesn't mean the Reds have had crap there over the last decade. They managed to get somewhat above average production out of the position a few years over the last 10, even if they weren't consistently good from year to year.

Now that we are into the hitters, let me explain what we'll be doing. For catchers, you will be selecting a starter and a backup, but you won't be doing that for any other position. After we get through all of the positions, I will have a day for selecting a left-handed and right-handed pinch hitter, and I will also take the the top vote-getter in the OF who is not a starter as the backup OF, and the top middle IF non-starting vote getter as the utility IF. That will give us a full 25-man roster for the decade.

So, if you are having a hard time deciding who should be the backup catcher, remember that the guy has a shot at being a pinch hitter, assuming he was used in that fashion frequently enough. Ballot is after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation | Bullpen

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Paul Bako	2008	99	338	299	30	65	11	2	6	35	34	90	.217	.299	.328	.626	64	.271	-0.6
Ryan Hanigan	2007-2009	126	402	346	34	92	9	1	5	22	48	42	.266	.363	.341	.704	86	.307	1.5
Ramon Hernandez	2009	81	331	287	25	74	13	1	5	37	33	34	.258	.336	.362	.699	84	.307	0.5
Jason LaRue	2000-2006	679	2441	2136	251	513	120	6	81	293	186	613	.240	.326	.416	.741	91	.314	6.2
Corky Miller	2001-2009	104	342	288	24	57	13	0	7	36	33	69	.198	.301	.316	.617	61	.276	0.0
Chad Moeller	2007	30	49	48	6	8	1	0	1	2	0	17	.167	.167	.250	.417	4	.175	-0.6
Dave Ross	2006-2008	254	817	692	86	157	34	1	41	104	99	203	.227	.324	.457	.780	96	.318	3.3
Benito Santiago	2000	89	277	252	22	66	11	1	8	45	19	45	.262	.310	.409	.719	79	.292	0.1
Kelly Stinnett	2001-2003	157	518	459	51	110	29	0	15	57	45	137	.240	.318	.401	.719	86	.306	-0.1
Eddie Taubensee	2000	81	291	266	29	71	12	0	6	24	21	44	.267	.324	.380	.704	76	.310	-1.3
Javier Valentin	2004-2008	441	1086	981	107	259	56	2	34	149	93	154	.264	.326	.429	.755	93	.322	1.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/15/2009.

Will the Hall come a knockin' for Larkin?

2009-12-16T12:54:08Z

JinAZ explained why Barry Larkin should be elected into the Hall of Fame, but the "will" or "when" is a separate question. Larkin of course appears on the ballot for the first time this year and has 15 years to gain the requisite 75% of the BBWAA's eligible votes in order to avoid the "he'll have to buy a ticket to get in!" or "hall of very good" quips from sportswriters. An eligible voter has at least 10 years in the BBWAA, which unfortunately for Larkin leaves sabermetrically-inclined voters like Rob Neyer, Keith Law, and Will Carroll on the sidelines for now. Ballots are due on December 31, and the results will be published on January 6.

Judging the voting patterns of the electoriate and predicting elections is more art than science. Bill James and scores of others have demonstrated that the BBWAA does not treat the Hall of Fame like a meritocracy and (inconsistently) considers plenty of other factors, including team success, run scoring environment, popularity with the press, post-playing career, and most recently, "fear." Adding to the unpredictability is the relatively small number of candidates considered over a long period of time. At shortstop, the writers have only elected 10 shortstops into the Hall (the Veterans Committee has elected another 12). Most of the 10 were elected decades ago before most of today's voters became eligible, which makes it harder to judge the current electorate (only Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith have been elected in the last 25 years). Additionally, a few of those 10 played a significant amount of time at other positions (Banks and Yount played only about half of their games at short, while Rabbit Maranville played about 20% of his games at second).

With all that said, I feel relatively confident that Larkin will be enshrined after waiting a few years because most writers and fans recognize that Larkin was a great player for a long stretch of time. The injuries and perhaps playing in a small market will hold Larkin back to some degree, but several measurements and other considerations point to eventual inlusion for Larkin:

- The 12 all-star games (would've been 13 but he was robbed in '92) is a great proxy for how well Larkin was perceived in his day. While there are flaws with the all-star selection process, there's no denying that a player picked to that many all-star teams was widely recognized as a great player for a long period of time. In fact, according to a Reds' PR intern (former intern now), no eligible player picked for at least 12 National League all-star teams has failed to make the HOF.

- Two of Bill James' HOF predictive tools charaterize Larkin as a strong but not an automatic candidate. Bill James' HOF Monitor awards points for in-season and career milestones (such as batting .300) while also counting AS game appearances and MVPs and awarding a positional adjustment. Larkin scores a 118. A 100 is considered a "good possibility " at the Hall while 130 is a "virtual cinch." Under the HOF Standards test (which is similar to the Monitor but takes out AS game appearances and MVP awards), Larkin scores a 47 compared to the average HOFer score of 50.

Larkin did not lead the league in any significant statistical categories and therefore does not have a "black ink" score. He also does not fare well under the "gray ink" standard, which gauges how often a player appeared in the top 10 league leaderboards. But I'm not sure how great a tool gray ink is if it penalizes more recent players for playing in a larger league. Seems to me that it's easier to appear in the top 10 when there are 8 rather than 16 teams in the league.

- Larkin also has a mildly compelling narrative as he played for his hometown team his whole career, winning a ring and an MVP along the way. I say "mildly" because two of the most recent shortstop inductees were given extra credit for intangibles (Ripken with The Streak; Ozzie with the highlights and backflips).

In sum, Larkin is a strong candidate for enshrinement. He is probably not, however, a "first ballot" Hall of Famer to enough voters to get him in this year. The lost time to injuries will stick out on his resume. He had only seven seasons of 140+ games, though he should get credit for playing most of the two strike years. Larkin also misses the mark on some key milestones. He was not quite a .300 hitter (career .295 with a .371 OBP). Nor did he reach 2,500 hits (finished with 2,340). He also falls just shy of 1,000 RBIs and 200 HRs. While he has terrific totals for a shortstop (10th in hits in a SS list that includes Banks and Yount; top 6 in doubles, stolen bases, and HRs), many voters do not properly adjust offensive expectations for position.

Another retired shortstop who also rates well in the all-time shortstop lists is Alan Trammell, and the lack of BBWAA support for him (17.4% of the vote last year) gives us some pause. But I think that there are enough crucial differences in their candidacies. For one, Larkin was a better player (815 vs. 767 in OPS, big SB advantage). More importantly he was perceived as such and played in twice as many AS games (though in fairness Trammell's career almost perfectly coincided with Ripken's). Secondly, Larkin is a much more visible candidate due to his on-camera job with the MLB Network. All those demonstrations on the proper way to tag a runner out at second or discussions about his playing career reinforces Larkin's stardom. Trammell, on the other hand, is known for managing the 2003 Tigers team that went 43-119.

My hope is that Larkin's candidacy will resemble Ryne Sandberg's more than Trammell's. Sandberg also played an up-the-middle position well (9 GGs at 2B) for a long period of time, and was recognized as a great player (10 AS games, 1 MVP). Offensively he's pretty similar to Larkin, with comparable OPS+, SB, and games. Sandberg reached 76% of the vote in 2005, his third year on the ballot. He scored 49% in his first year. I'm hoping that Larkin nets at least 40% and closer to half of the ballot this year. If that's the case, he should gain admittance around his third or fourth year.

I'm keeping a very unofficial tally to see where the electorate is headed on Larkin. Votes are not published but writers are free to reveal their ballots and reasoning. Several non-procrastinators have already turned their ballots in and published their findings. So far Larkin has four "yes" votes, three "no" votes, and one "maybe." Feel free to update my tally if you see a ballot that's not listed. Try to make sure that it is from an eligible voter - if you're unsure, check the Biz of Baseball's badge list for members inducted no later than 2000.

Some of the votes so far:

- Bill Madden of the NY Daily News votes Yes. Good to see Larkin get a vote from a non-Midwest writer. Madden also votes for Alomar, Dawson, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, and Bert Blyleven. Swap Raines for Morris and you'd have my ballot.

- Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse votes No. He argues that in Larkin's best 10-year stretch he was only 34th in OPS+, which is equivalent to Jay Buhner or Ray Lankford. Not only does this ignore baserunning and undervalues Larkin's OBP, but more importantly this completely ignores the positional context. Jay Buhner and Ray Lankford didn't play a gold glove shortstop. Strangely, Price seems to account for this earlier in the article in articulating his standard: "Was he a dominant player at his position in his era?"

So what's your prediction?

Poll

Which year will Larkin gain induction?

The Greatest Reds: #4

2009-12-15T17:00:17Z

4. Barry Larkin

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1986-2004	SS	3	10	11
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1992	1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998
71%	29%	0%	1992	1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Most Valuable Player – 1995 Roberto Clemente Award – 1993 Lou Gehrig Award – 1994 Silver Slugger – 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 Gold Glove – 1994, 1995, 1996 All Star – 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004	N/A		-2nd in career doubles -2nd in career hits -3rd in career runs scored -3rd in career stolen bases -6th in career RB

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

In 19 seasons, all with the Reds, the injury-prone Larkin had just four years where he played in 150 games or more. Similarly, over the 13 consecutive year stretch in which Larkin posted a 100 OPS+ or higher every single season, he averaged just 126 games played. While this depressed Larkin’s counting numbers and peak impact, he was an impressive player nonetheless, with seemingly no weakness: he had speed (5 different times with at least 30 steals), he had power (consistently reaching 30 doubles, once hit as many as 33 home runs), and he provided solid defense (note the Gold Glove awards, although the specific years he won were probably make-up awards for the years where the Ozzie Smith inertia screwed Larkin out of winning).

From a less quantitative standpoint, Larkin was also one of the smartest players I’ve ever seen; this too is evidenced to some degree by the numbers (83% steal percentage, 15% more walks than strikeouts). In 1995, Larkin won the NL MVP due to his award-winning defense, his 51 stolen bases (against just 5 times caught), and his 133 OPS+ bat from the shortstop position. While there were possibly more worthy recipients that year, Larkin quieted doubters by following up with a monster 1996, in which he hit the aforementioned 33 dingers, scored 117 runs, and posted a 154 OPS+. Naturally, he finished 12th in MVP voting that year. In a note that reflects both on Larkin and on the teams for which he played, no Reds player has been the singular best player on the team in as many seasons as Larkin (8 different seasons, by my count), and no Reds player’s stretch of inter-team dominance spanned as long (11 years from 1988 to 1998). In that time, Larkin managed a 130 OPS+ or higher seven different times, which was obviously an incredible asset from such an important defensive position. Larkin made the most of his limited postseason opportunities, hitting 338/397/465 in 78 plate appearances. For his regular-season career, Larkin finished with over 9000 plate appearances and a 116 OPS+.

The Top 15 Shortstops in Reds history

1          Barry Larkin
2          Dave Concepcion
3          Leo Cardenas
4          Roy McMillan
5          Tommy Corcoran
6          Germany Smith
7          Billy Myers
8          Eddie Miller
9          Buck Herzog
10        Larry Kopf
11        Eddie Joost
12        Hod Ford
13        Felipe Lopez
14        Ike Caveney
15        Tom Downey

Red Reposter - Is Jay Bruce the New Adam Dunn?

2009-12-15T15:00:31Z

by Al Behrman - AP

If the Reds are gonna keep losing you better believe we're gonna need a scapegoat.

View full size photo »

Illya Harrell at Bleacher Report has a feature on Juan Francisco
It's an interesting read, as he says the non-tendering of Jonny Gomes is because the Reds want to see Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso in the lineup together. He also says Francisco's biggest malfunction (other than being blocked positionally) is "a major case of Jay Bruce syndrome, striking out way too much." He ALSO calls Bruce "tremendously overrated". It's definitely worth reading.

The majority of folks 'round here love The Boss, so this kind of criticism of him comes somewhat as a surprise to me. But it just now strikes me that he could potentially be the lightning rod that Adam Dunn was (and Edwin Encarnacion should have been *sniff) due to his power + strikeouts + good-natured Texas demeanor dynamic. Of course, it's worth noting that Bruce's defense is about 3 wins better than Dunn's, and he doesn't walk as much, but superficiality never stopped anyone from a good ol'-fashioned effigy burnin'.
You know it's a slow Hot Stove Season when...
"Reds come up short in Counsell stakes" is the headline of a story. Frankly, I think the Brewers did us a favor here. Yeesh. I suppose we are left to hope Paul Janish dramatically improves his hitting, or that Miguel Tejada will play SS here in exchange for a coney and a chance to marshal the Opening Day parade.
Jonny Gomes says he willing to come back to Cincy
No hard feelings, bro. Fay quotes $1.5 mil as Gomes' estimated number had he gone to arbitration, and frankly it's hard to begrudge the man for that. The only thing I can think is that the Reds want to spend that money on a SS and are confident that guys like Wladimir Balentien, Chris Dickerson, and Chris Heisey can get the job done. And now is the time when I remind you of the 2nd guaranteed years to Mike Lincoln and Willy Taveras.
Chris Pummer and Howard Megdal at The Perpetual Post judge teams for their performances at the Winter Meetings
Here's what they say about the Reds:

"CHRIS PUMMER: Lose. The Reds will probably have to dump payroll this offseason, and Winter Meetings would have been the best time to do it. Now, who knows what the return for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Brandon Phillips will be with a glut of players on the free agent market?
HOWARD MEGDAL: Bigger lose comes if they deal Phillips at all."

It's looking more and more like the Reds will not dump any significant players for payroll reasons. As Pummer says, the Winter Meetings are the place to do that, and the Reds didn't.
Fay says Micah Owings would likely have been non-tendered as well
had he not lost the coin flip with Mike Fontenot for Super-Two status. I like Owings, and I think he'll pitch better this year than last.
The Fay thinks Alfredo Amezega could fit as the UT guy the Reds are looking for
I'll pass, unless it's a minor league deal.
Doug Gray asks you to take a look at 7th round pick Josh Fellhauer
He's a CF from Cal State Fullerton and was one of my favorite picks of this year's draft.
FanGraphs unveiled their newest statty toy
wRC+ is pretty much a better, more precise stat than OPS+.
Jim Misudek at the Reds Internal Affairs blog wrote his last post
He's taken a job as the Media Relations Coordinator for the Braves. Good luck Jim!

Heroes of the Zeros: The Bullpen

2009-12-15T13:00:28Z

As we continue our vote on the Reds All Decade Team, we look today at the bullpen. The Reds bullpen was a strength in the early aughts, but it also had some very lean periods in the middle of the decade before rebounding a bit the last two seasons. Below you will see the 28 relievers who managed to pitch 60 or more games out of the bullpen for the Reds between 2000 and 2009. The survey below will have you choose a closer, 2 right-handed relievers, 2 left-handed relievers, and 2 other relievers of your choice. Please be careful not to choose a pitcher for more than one spot as I will only count a single vote for that player.

One note before you vote, I didn't feel like doing the extra work it would take to separate a pitcher's relief appearances from his starts, so some of the stats below include starts as well as relief appearances. This mainly only affects Danny Graves (30 GS), Chris Reitsma (53 GS), and Matt Belisle (43 GS) with a couple other pitchers having a handful of starts in their numbers. Please try to take that into account when considering a player as best you can. Voting can be done after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
Jeremy Affeldt	2008	74	1	1	.500	0	78.1	3.33	133	3.72	.260	.323	.410	.733	9.19	2.87	1.03
Matt Belisle	2003-2008	132	16	22	.421	1	341.2	5.06	89	4.54	.302	.351	.472	.823	6.06	2.53	1.24
Bill Bray	2006-2008	111	7	6	.538	3	89.0	3.84	118	3.40	.278	.348	.433	.780	9.20	3.84	0.81
Jim Brower	2001-2002	68	9	10	.474	1	168.2	3.95	114	4.49	.250	.328	.406	.734	6.30	3.74	1.01
Jared Burton	2007-2009	154	10	3	.769	0	161.0	3.47	128	3.73	.238	.322	.368	.690	7.77	3.91	0.73
Todd Coffey	2005-2008	213	12	9	.571	9	206.1	4.62	98	4.58	.311	.366	.476	.842	5.98	2.75	1.22
Francisco Cordero	2008-2009	140	7	10	.412	73	137.0	2.76	158	3.42	.238	.329	.327	.656	8.93	4.47	0.53
Jon Coutlangus	2007	64	4	2	.667	0	41.0	4.39	105	4.57	.250	.373	.362	.735	8.34	5.93	0.66
Danny Graves	2000-2005	318	29	35	.453	147	526.0	4.16	105	4.62	.279	.331	.451	.782	4.59	2.58	1.16
Daniel Ray Herrera	2008-2009	77	4	4	.500	0	69.0	3.52	122	4.00	.283	.354	.419	.772	6.78	3.52	0.78
Mike Lincoln	2008-2009	83	3	6	.333	0	93.1	5.40	81	5.66	.269	.357	.465	.822	6.36	4.15	1.64
Gary Majewski	2006-2008	88	2	6	.250	0	78.0	7.38	61	4.73	.388	.429	.562	.992	5.31	2.54	1.15
Nick Masset	2008-2009	84	6	1	.857	0	93.1	2.31	186	3.65	.213	.276	.334	.610	7.81	2.80	0.87
Hector Mercado	2000-2001	68	3	2	.600	0	67.0	4.16	111	4.26	.262	.354	.418	.772	9.67	5.10	1.07
Kent Mercker	2003-2008	179	5	4	.556	5	142.0	3.36	129	4.72	.256	.336	.447	.783	6.91	3.99	1.27
Phil Norton	2003-2004	86	2	5	.286	0	80.1	4.59	92	4.10	.263	.359	.380	.740	6.16	4.93	0.56
Brian Reith	2001-2004	73	4	12	.250	1	127.2	5.92	73	6.16	.292	.381	.542	.923	5.99	5.01	1.83
Chris Reitsma	2001-2003	125	22	32	.407	12	404.1	4.52	97	4.57	.280	.329	.456	.785	5.19	2.52	1.20
Dennys Reyes	2000-2001	97	4	7	.364	0	96.2	4.75	98	4.74	.254	.363	.395	.757	8.19	5.96	0.93
Arthur Rhodes	2009	66	1	1	.500	0	53.1	2.53	169	3.14	.198	.276	.299	.576	8.10	3.38	0.51
John Riedling	2000-2004	200	13	12	.520	3	274.1	4.13	104	4.37	.256	.345	.385	.730	5.97	4.43	0.69
Brian Shackelford	2005-2006	63	2	0	1.000	0	46.0	4.11	107	5.20	.229	.333	.388	.722	6.26	3.72	1.17
Mike Stanton	2007	69	1	3	.250	0	57.2	5.93	78	4.26	.315	.374	.462	.836	6.24	2.81	0.94
Scott Sullivan	2000-2003	279	22	12	.647	4	338.0	4.05	111	4.21	.246	.326	.408	.734	7.96	3.49	1.14
Ryan Wagner	2003-2005	108	8	4	.667	0	119.0	4.69	90	4.38	.274	.354	.410	.764	7.64	4.24	0.98
David Weathers	2005-2009	325	20	23	.465	61	336.1	3.56	126	4.37	.239	.317	.390	.707	6.21	3.67	0.96
Gabe White	2000-2004	137	10	3	.769	1	128.2	4.34	98	4.25	.256	.289	.467	.756	6.92	1.54	1.47
Scott Williamson	2000-2003	155	13	15	.464	35	229.0	3.14	143	3.53	.209	.326	.329	.655	10.73	5.42	0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.