Red Reporter

Game 36: Reds @ Mets (7:10 EDT). Leake vs. Santana.

2012-05-16T21:19:59Z

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ New York Mets

Wednesday, May 16, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Citi Field

Mike Leake vs Johan Santana

Coverage

TV: FSO-HD, SNY-HD; RADIO: WLW, WFAN, WQBU; WEB: MLB.tv, Gameday Audio, Gameday

Weather

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

To preview this Mets miniseries, I spoke with Amazin' Avenue and Chuck held court over at Metsmerized Online.

I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Maybe you read other blogs that do. This is not such a great match-up. The Mike Leake we know from Seasons One and Two is never more than a start away from becoming dependable again, but there hasn't been much to like about his recent episodes. Other than: his regressed stats, which were revealed in a really hacky series of therapist scenes, suggest he's not nearly this bad.

Meanwhile, Johan Santana is back from doing off-Broadway and, rather than losing steps, has learned a few.

Go Reds! Think positive, play the game, then win the game.

Mike Leake	Stats	Johan Santana
7.11 (54)	ERA (ERA+)	2.92 (122)
1.611	WHIP	1.162
1.45	K/BB	3.42
5.55	FIP	2.42
4.50	xFIP	3.30
4.86	SIERA	3.17
31.2	IP	37.0

Lineups

REDS

Zack Cozart (R) SS
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Chris Heisey (R) RF
Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Devin Mesoraco (R) C
Mike Leake RHP

METS

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) CF
Mike Baxter (L) LF
David Wright (R) 3B
Lucas Duda (L) RF
Daniel Murphy (L) 2B
Ike Davis (L) 1B
Justin Turner (R) SS
Mike Nickeas (R) C
Johan Santana (L) P

Bullpen Log

Reliever	5/11	5/11	5/12	5/13	5/14	5 day totals
Sean Marshall			1.0, 19p	1.0, 12p		2.0 IP, 31 pitches
Aroldis Chapman		2.0, 33		0.2, 12p		2.2 IP, 45 pitches
Logan Ondrusek		1.0, 14p		0.2, 15p		1.2 IP, 29 pitches
Jose Arredondo	2.0, 18p	1.0, 12p			1.0, 16p	4.0 IP, 46 pitches
Sam LeCure	1.0, 18p		1.2, 46p			2.2 IP, 64 pitches
J.J. Hoover	1.0, 12p		1.1, 22p		1.0, 8p	3.1 IP, 42 pitches
Alfredo Simon	2.0, 31p				2.0, 46p	4.0 IP, 77 pitches

Dan Rubenstein heads to Columbus, Ohio to meet Hall of Fame legends Ricky Henderson, Frank Thomas,...

2012-05-16T18:52:17Z

Dan Rubenstein heads to Columbus, Ohio to meet Hall of Fame legends Ricky Henderson, Frank Thomas, Johnny Bench, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew & more as they play contest winner Tim Wisecup in the Pepsi Max Field of Dreams.

New York Mets "Series" Preview

2012-05-16T18:30:02Z

The Reds are off to the Big Apple today for the first of five games in New York: two vs. the Mets and then three against the Yankees.

The Mets are just two games behind the NL East-leading Washington Nationals (as I write this Tuesday), and have the exact same record as the Cardinals...but they're not playing nearly as well. Everything about their numbers indicate that they are something closer to a 0.500 team. On offense, they've been above average--they've gotten on base very well, but haven't shown much power. Their rotation has posted good peripherals, but below-average performances...I think several guys are likely to turn it around. The Reds are facing the guys who are arguably the #1 and #2 pitchers on the staff.

The bad news (for Mets fans) is that the other parts of their team have been terrible. The bullpen has been catastrophically bad, especially among the late-inning relievers. And almost all data indicates that this is a very, very bad fielding team.

Citi Field Park Factors (as of 2011)

Runs: 0.97

Home runs: 0.95 LHB / 0.92 RHB

I'm reporting these because they're the most recent data. But this offseason, the outfield walls were moved in substantially. This means that the park should play as a much more neutral park--if not a hitter's park--than it has in the past. Early returns don't support this, but they're meaningless at this point due to small sample sizes. I'd assume it's neutral until the data show otherwise, and we might not know that for a few years.

Position Players

David Wright hasn't hit a walk-off grand slam as part of a three home run day this season. But he's hit just as well as, if not better than, Joey Votto thus far. It therefore appears that whatever the heck was wrong with him last year (back issues, etc) are not a problem this year. Kirk Nieuwenhuis came up to replace Andres Torres when he was injured earlier this season, started hitting and never really looked back. He had a terrific partial season in AAA last year, hitting .298/.404/.505 in 221 PA's, it's not ridiculous to think that some of this is real. But his 0.429 BABIP and 29% strikeout rate indicate that he's due for a substantial regression. His playing time is eroding now that Torres is back, and may continue when Jason Bay ultimately returns from his rib injury.

The Reds continue to get nothing from left field. I've seen lots of clamoring for Heisey, but Dusty has split PT more or less evenly between those two so far. Neither is producing. I'm more confident that Heisey will turn it around than Ludwick. Drew Stubbs keeps scuffling too, and Zack Cozart just dipped below the 100 RC+ mark. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce can't win every game...

Probable Starters

Mike Leake is better than this. But it's getting to the point that keeping him in the rotation is hard to justify, especially when he has options left...and you have Chapman sitting in the bullpen.

I didn't have a lot of confidence that we'd see much from Johan Santana this year. But so far, we've seen a guy who is not all that dissimilar from the amazing performer he was from ages 24-26. He's still striking guys out at a high rate, and still showing good (though not great...at least not yet) control. He has always been fly ball pitcher; a 33% GB% at the end of a season might be below his career average, but would not be a career low. If he continues to strike guys out at the clip he has so far this season, there's no reason to think he won't continue to be effective.

And R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer--and a good one at that. That's always fun to watch, so I'm looking forward to that match-up.

Bullpen

Yuck. You have some middle relievers putting up good performances in Bobby Parnell and Tim Byrdak, but the rest of this bullpen has been horrible. In 2011, the average relief pitcher's ERA was 3.69. They're just not getting that from their late inning crew right now. Now, whether that's predictive or not, I don't know. But the Mets are in for a world of hurt if Frank Francisco and company don't turn it around.

The Reds' pen on the other hand? Flipping fantastic. 'Course...you've got to get them a lead for them to win the ballgame for you.

Todd Frazier's Moment

2012-05-16T16:30:02Z

It's easy to forget that Todd Frazier, in the eyes of Baseball America, was a Top 50 overall prospect and number one in the Reds' system prior to the 2010 season. Having started his professional career at short stop, he could be imagined almost anywhere on the field. With 16 games at AAA under his belt, having hit at every level, Todd's Time was close at hand.

Yet since the start of the 2010 season, Frazier has made 938 plate appearances at AAA to just 157 in the majors. His numbers at the plate, while trending up, didn't match the brilliance he'd shown at lower levels.

He turned 26. He's made appearances at 5 different positions between Louisville and CIncinnati. Frazier's versatility became a form of indecision on the part of the organization - and apparent doubt about whether his skillset fitting into one of their positions of need. A lot of it was having Rolen and Phillips under contract, but part of it may also have been that he didn't seem like he'd hit well enough to play the outfield.

Frazier's fits and starts in Louisville obscure the fact that he's a player we were pretty excited about a little over two years a go. What he's shown since is steady and incremental improvement. The bat has come along: from a sub-.800 OPS in 2010 as a Bat to an .879 OPS this season in the majors. He's gone from a major positional question mark to what appears to be a passable infielder in the majors - someone who can even be used in the middle infield in a pinch.

With Juan Francisco a Brave and Rolen on the DL, Frazier has his chance - deferred, but very real.

Defensively, he's significantly better in left field than he is at third base. That's what watching him in the minors - and the Reds' recent handling of him - seems to suggest and the early (and nearly worthless) defensive metrics support.

By my estimation, he's significantly worse than Rolen at third, but far from laughable. He doesn't need to hit very well to even the score. A crude WAR calculation, adjusting for defense, gave me a wOBA below .300 to match what Rolen had put out so far this season. Frazier is currently cranking out .374.

That's going to melt away as a regular starter. Running Frazier's numbers through the MLE calculator says his AAA career equates to a .225/.280/.337 season. The formula doesn't want human baseball fans to be happy and does not know anything about Frazier's age or pedigree, so we should probably disregard. Even pretending that Frazier has no special talent, there will be a little bump in production from 3B with that line.

In-season Zips has Frazier around a .325 wOBA. That sounds about right to me, even a little low. That would give him a statline like: .245/.315/.430. Maybe a half-win improvement? Observers that have followed Frazier in Louisville would probably be higher on him than that. An improvement of a win or more is not outrageous - and it's an advantage that might just put a few more pitches over the plate further up the order.

In the Toddfather, Reds are lucky to be able to keep it "in the family" - plugging in Frazier with their regular starter out for an indefinite amount of time. He's not going to keep hitting like he has so far, but he has the talent to be a solid major league regular. He might even fly under the radar a little while longer.

So kiss the Little League World Series ring.

Beyond his recent accolades as a prospect, Frazier also had a "Talkin' Baseball" song adapted with his name featured prominently before he even made the major leagues.

Farmers Only: What's Yours is McMyne

2012-05-16T11:30:04Z

Louisville fell to Rochester 5-4, despite a homer by Bumpin' Bill Rhinehart and a quality start from Pedro Villareal (that was blown by Nick Christiani). The Texan hurler went six and two-thirds, giving up 3 runs on 9 hits, striking out 2 and walking none. Villareal has proven to be a welcome addition to a mostly uninspiring Louisville club, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs the rest of the year. If he continues to pitch well, there's a chance he could see a spot start down the road, depending on health and how the front office responds to invented blog hashtag campaigns. Miguel Rojas had 2 hits as the SS, and I think he's another exciting Bat to keep an eye on. Up next: Chad Reineke (1-2, 3.96 ERA) faces cRochester at 7:05.
Pensacola won a pitcher's duel against Birmingham, coming out on top, 2-0. Despite being outhit 6-4, the Wahoos rode 7 scoreless innings from Tim Crabbe, who gave up just 6 hits, while walking and striking out 4. Curtis Partch and Donnie Joseph combined to strike out 5 in two perfect innings. DoJo has five-finger death punched his way to a positively Chapmanic line so far, with a 30 to 4 K:BB ratio in 20 innings in 2012. Thank you sir may I have another! The Hellflower pinch-wanged a bongalong to account for both Wahoo runs. Up next: The 'Hoos are off tomorrow, and travel to Jacksonville to kick off a series on Thursday.
Bakersfield swept a doubleheader against Stockton, winning 2-1 and 6-1. Bryson Smith paced the Blaze in the first game, going 2-3 with a homer, while Jamie Walczak poached a win from Daniel Renkin' Ball, tossing 2 scoreless innings to close it out. Juan Duran also Durangoed a solo homer. While the 2-1 win was impressive, the second game featured another Billy Hamilton XBH-fest, as the Human Hadron Collider had a double and a triple with 3 RBI. That's his 7th tri-bagger of the year, by the way. Sluggin' Theo Bowe hit a home run, which was kind of weird. Maybe he's trying to shift the competition with Billy to homers? I dunno. Pat Doyle almost pitched 6 perfect innings, giving up just a first-inning single. Up next: More Stockton action at 10:30 PM eastern, no starters announced yet.
Dayton was on the wrong end of another low-scoring game, losing 2-1 to Lansing. Catcher Yovan Gonzalez was ejected in the fourth inning, and Tanner Robles followed suit shortly thereafter. Apparently Bob Davidson umps Midwest League games. Dayton outhit the ~~Ludwicks~~ Lugnuts 7-5, but went just 1-10 with RISP. Positively 2011 Reds-esque. Juan Silva was the only Dragon with multiple hits, whopping 2 singles. Kyle McMyne, Lucas O'Rear, and Carlos Contreras finished out the game without giving up a run. This Dayton offense is putrid, but fortunately, the pitching. Well, not fortunately enough, since they keep losing. Up next: The Dragons head to Bowling Green to take on the Hot Rods at 7:35. Stalin "Gina" Gerson (1-3, 4.66 ERA) takes the mound.

It's true, the Reds lost a get-away game. Braves 6, Reds 2.

2012-05-16T02:16:45Z

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chris Heisey is heating up, collecting 3 hits in his second straight game. With a night to forget for Johnny Cueto, that's about all that went right for the Reds. Honorable mentions to Alfredo Simon for two shaky but scoreless innings and Ryan Hanigan for his two hits.

Key Plays

Brian McCann got things going with a solo HR in the second. Still, it was just the one run, and it was early.
But the wheels came off for Johnny in the third. The Braves didn't exactly pound the ball but strung together four singles, a double, and a couple of walks to plate four runs. Braves lead 5-0.
That would be all the offense Atlanta needed, as Tim Hudson dominated the Reds through the first six innings. The Reds put up a couple of runs in the seventh with a Hanigan double and a Stubbs single. Unfortunately, they ended the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings with two runners on. We lose, 6-2.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

This was Cueto's worst outing in some time. He allowed the most runs since Sept. 22, 2010. His ERA went from 1.12 to 1.89. He's going to need to look at the game thread to get some chuckles before bedtime. Or maybe some ideas for bedtime.
J.J. Hoover pitched a scoreless inning and Juan Francisco grounded out. We may have lost the game, but we won the trade (today).
Joey Votto extended his on-base streak to 26 games.
St. Louis won earlier, so their lead is back up to 2 1/2 games.
The Reds head up to New York to meet, greet, and beat the Mets. Mike Leake is on the bump tomorrow.

Game 35: Reds @ Braves (7:10 EDT). Cueto vs. Hudson.

2012-05-15T21:02:47Z

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Atlanta Braves

Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Turner Field

Johnny Cueto vs Tim Hudson

Coverage

TV: MLB Network, FSO-HD, SS-HD; RADIO: WLW, WCNN; WEB: MLB.tv, Gameday Audio, Gameday

Weather

Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

A team doesn't have to string together lengthy winnings streaks to be successful. But good teams usually do anyway over the course of a long season. Back-to-back wins against good competition is encouraging. So is a 3-hit night from a left fielder.

While the team may not be able to pull even with the Cardinals before the end of the month, they can continue to demonstrate they're in it for the long haul. Nothing about their performance so far has been fluky:

W-L in line Pythagorean record
.500 in 1-run games
Slightly better record at home than away
In general, better records against worse teams

If there's room to grow, the question is how much better the offensive improvement will be than the bullpen regression. The bullpen is among the best, if not the best, in the National League. If it stays that way AND the bats come out to play, then this is a first-place-caliber team.

If you think the team we've seen so far is the "real" Reds, then they may be good enough for 2nd place in the NL Central. It may even be a little bit better by virtue of not playing the Nats and Cards over 1/3 of the time. But "just good enough for 2nd place in the Central" isn't shaping up to be good enough for the playoffs.

Although none of this really matters when Johnny Cueto is on the mound.

Johnny Cueto	Stats	Tim Hudson
1.12 (347)	ERA (ERA+)	4.50 (84)
0.972	WHIP	1.222
3.88	K/BB	2.6
3.04	FIP	3.26
3.78	xFIP	2.99
3.75	SIERA	3.01
48.1	IP	18.0

Lineups

REDS

Zack Cozart (R) SS
Drew Stubbs (R) CF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Chris Heisey (R) LF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Johnny Cueto (R) P

BRAVES

Michael Bourn (L) CF
Martin Prado (R) LF
Chipper Jones (S) 3B
Dan Uggla (R) 2B
Brian McCann (L) C
Jason Heyward (L) RF
Eric Hinske (L) 1B
Jack Wilson (R) SS
Tim Hudson (R) P

Bullpen Log

Reliever	5/10	5/11	5/12	5/13	5/14	5 day totals
Sean Marshall	-			1.0, 19p	1.0, 12p	2.0 IP, 31 pitches
Aroldis Chapman	-		2.0, 33		0.2, 12p	2.2 IP, 45 pitches
Logan Ondrusek	-		1.0, 14p		0.2, 15p	1.2 IP, 29 pitches
Jose Arredondo	-	2.0, 18p	1.0, 12p			3.0 IP, 30 pitches
Sam LeCure	-	1.0, 18p		1.2, 46p		2.2 IP, 64 pitches
J.J. Hoover	-	1.0, 12p		1.1, 22p		2.1 IP, 34 pitches
Alfredo Simon	-	2.0, 31p				2.0 IP, 31 pitches

Red Reposter - Bailey unimpressed & Pete Rose likes attention

2012-05-15T18:00:33Z

Homer Bailey was "unimpressed" with his performance last night
"It could have been a hell of a lot better," he said. It's good to see he is staying hungry. Outside of 1 really bad start, Bailey has been effective this season. Last night, Homer faced a very tough offense in the Braves. Atlanta posted at least 7 runs in each of their 3 games against the Cardinals prior to Bailey's start last night. Well done young man.
Aroldis Chapman is better than you at throwing baseballs
This dude is striking out nearly 50% of batter's faced. As the WSJ points out, "If he can keep this up, Chapman has a chance to become the most unhittable pitcher in baseball history." I like this kid. How about you?
Bernie Miklasz (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) notices that Joey Votto is "going bananas."
While some big money first-basemen have struggled to live up to their contracts, Votto hasn't missed a beat. Only David Wright (and his inflated BABIP) have a higher OBP in all of baseball. I like this kid too! Miklasz also touches on the #LetChapmanStart debate.
According to Will Carroll, the "Reds may be forced to turn page on Rolen era"
Most of us have seen this coming for some time now. If not the end of 2010, last season's performance made it pretty clear. Rolen's lack of production at the plate in 2012 has forced many of us to admit that we're watching the last days of a brilliant career. We can always hope that Rolen rehabs and returns to the lineup as a productive hitter, but the likelihood seems slim.

J.C. Sulbaran received some love from Baseball America la st week
While the Reds' system isn't what it used to be, there are still some "high-ceiling" prospects available. Sulbaran might be one of those guys. In limited time, JC has been very impressive.

Pete Rose will be featured in the first of ESPN's "30 for 30" shorts
You know, if you aren't sick of hearing about Pete Rose...

Josh Hamilton had a decent week at the plate
His OPS was nearly 2.000 for the week. I believe that is above average, but I'm not sure. It makes you wonder... If Hamilton were still in Cincinnati, where would he hit in this lineup? Dusty MUST split up his left-handed hitters. With Hamilton on this team, would Votto hit 5th, and Bruce 7th? I guess it wouldn't matter much, because the Reds would score 657 runs a game anyway.