Rock Chalk Talk

Big 12 Realignment: Evaluating The Basketball Value Of Potential Members

2012-05-25T13:30:02Z

For the third summer in a row, realignment seems to be all the rage in college sports. But, after seeing Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Texas A&M leave over the past two seasons, the Big 12 is poised to add rather than subtract this year, with Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame all mentioned as possible additions in reports of varying trustworthiness.

While a couple of those appear to be longshots at best, I nevertheless thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to examine the programs of those schools to see what they would add to the Big 12 as a whole and how they would affect the Kansas program specifically. Below is a master chart of the KenPom rating of each school for the past five seasons, with a closer look at each after the jump:

Notre Dame (avg. rating: .87212)

Obviously Notre Dame would bring most of its value via their football program and the obscene amounts of money they make per year, but the overlooked basketball program has quietly been very good over the past few years, and is in fact the best on this list. Much of that value, however, is due to the 2011 team, which grabbed a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and was bounced in the second round by, coincidentally enough, potential new conference mate Florida State. Other than that they've spent most of their time in the 20s-30s of the KenPom rankings, as Mike Brey has done a great job in building a team that can beat anyone at home, but struggles a bit on the road. No Big 12 team has been consistently at that type of level like the Irish have, but the closest analogue is probably Kansas State. The Irish have gotten it done with a crisp offense, and have been in the top 10 in terms of turnover rate in 3 of the past 5 years. Given their struggles against Florida State in the 2011 tournament I don't think they would pose Kansas much of a threat, but would probably finish anywhere from 4th to 7th each year and consistently be on the verge of the NCAA tournament. They also would of course lend another big name and stability to the league as a whole.

Clemson (avg. rating: .87116)

Though Clemson's inclusion was met with tepid reluctance at best in yesterday's post, the Tigers have probably the most underrated program on this list, and one of the more underrated ones nationally. Of course, a big reason why is their soft non conferences schedules have traditionally allowed them to leap out to great records. Still, they have been a consistent competitor in the ACC, finishing 3rd, 5th, 5th and 4th before slipping to 7th last year. Like Notre Dame, they provide most of their value via football (though if you can only win the ACC once, how good can you be?) but their basketball program could probably slot in right where they are in the ACC, finishing 4th or 5th every year.

Florida State (avg. rating: .86524)

The Seminoles are my second favorite program in college basketball because of Leonard Hamilton and how he gets his guys to defend, especially lately. In the past four years the Noles have ranked 12th, 1st, 1st, and 15th nationally at PPP allowed. And they've done it in a way that suggests in absolutely is a true talent: they limit three pointers attempted, force teams to miss twos, and block a lot of shots. Their offense is too horrible to ever win the league outright, but their defense is so good that they can stifle any offense, possibly even including Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. There's no question that adding a Florida member to the Big 12 would help Kansas recruit in that area, and personally I'd love to see the Seminoles and Jayhawks tangle twice per year in what would be a drag out defensive battle that would probably be more physical than our gridiron meetings.

Virginia Tech (avg. rating: .82416)

I doubt the Hokies are coming because they are likely tied to Virginia, and I also don't think they add a ton basketball wise at this point. Though they barely missed the NCAA tournament in three of the last four years, the program is in disarray. After Seth Greenberg was fired just over a month ago, and the program went into the last live recruiting period without a coach. James Johnson was promoted to the position, but the Hokies still lost their top ranked recruit, Montrezl Harrell, and Freshman Dorian Finney-Smith plans to transfer. Finney-Smith made most of his mark on the boards, but also shot 37% from three and could no doubt have grown into a useful player. As it is, the Hokies have just one commit in the class of 2012 and none beyond that, so things figure to get a lot worse before they get better. On the court, they don't figure to offer much other than a middle of the pack team that thinks they should be better, and off the court they don't do much for me in terms of exposure or national appeal.

Georgia Tech (avg. rating: .71234)

With the losses of Nebraska and Colorado, as well as last year's Texas A&M team, the Big 12 is suffering from a distinct lack of cupcakes. With Oklahoma figuring to get stronger thanks to Lon Kruger, TCU and Texas Tech are really the only two free wins in conference play.

Enter Georgia Tech, whom I think is a perfect addition basketball wise for the league. The Yellow Jackets have finished 7th, last, 7th, 10th and 10th in the ACC the past five years, and that was with NBAers like Anthony Morrow, Derrick Favors and Iman Shumpert on the roster. Georgia Tech provides the best of both worlds for Kansas: two free wins per year (or one, depending on how the divisions would shake down), plus at worst biennial trips to Atlanta, which has become fertile recruiting ground for the Jayhawks. With neither Georgia nor Georgia Tech able to offer much resistance recruiting wise, this would be a perfect way for Kansas to get their foot in the door, and, exposure wise, open up the Big 12 as a whole to the Atlanta market.

Kansas Jayhawk News and Notes 5.25.12

2012-05-25T11:00:19Z

Kansas Athletics

KU baseball eliminates Texas with 4-2 victory at Big 12 tourney | KUsports.com
This is the extent of any write up/recap from our baseball teams win in the Big 12 tourney.

Kansas Athletics, Inc., board discusses Big 12 growth | KUsports.com
“The conference situation seems to be going well,” she said of the continued growth and stability of the league. “I think we have a really good relationship between our old members and the new members (TCU and West Virginia) and we’re hopeful that it will continue to go smoothly. We’re at the beginning of a very good time for the conference.”

Misc.

Report: TCU AD: Florida State, Clemson, Miami want to join Big 12 [UPDATE] | SI Tracking Blog – Tracking MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and NCAA On Twitter
Rumor mill can get out of hand quickly. I like FSU and Clemson, Miami would be a concern. If we go to 16 and do four divisions then I might be ok with it.

Jabari Parker, No. 1 in the ESPN 100, is a rare recruit - ESPN
Apparently Kansas is on the radar here.

Luck leading West Virginia onward | KUsports.com
A story from our new league member WVU.

Kansas Eliminates Texas from Big 12 baseball tournament

2012-05-24T23:52:37Z

Kansas Eliminates Texas from Big 12 baseball tournament

KU beat Texas 4-2 thanks to Wes Benjamin's 6 inning effort in which he gave up just one run.

Kansas will play the loser of Texas A&M (who beat KU yesterday) and Missouri (whom Kansas just took 2 out of 3 from in the last regular season series of the year.)

Big 12 Realignment: Keeping An Eye On Clemson

2012-05-24T15:33:23Z

One of the common institutions that has been kicked around when talking about potential Big 12 expansion has been the Clemson Tigers. Florida State and Clemson are both currently affiliated with the ACC but as the scramble for stability continues the ACC doesn't seem to be the most desirable location for two fanbases that consider themselves football first institutions.

The latest and greatest coming out of Clemson South Carolina is that the Clemson Board of Trustees will meet today to discuss realignment rumors, prospects and the future of the schools conference affiliation. Obviously no one is tipping their cap and this could mean nothing, but it is a step that has been a common one when it comes to schools making this sort of a move.

"It's just to get everybody on the same page. The general discussion will be about what we think the future holds. We will talk about everything that has been going on, and this will allow us to get on the same page as the president [James Barker] and discuss the situation as he sees it.

I have no reason to believe that he will say he has had contact with any other conference, whether through a third party or intermediaries. We are a member of the ACC, and we have not been asked to join any other conference."

Board Chairman David Wilkins

Familiar rhetoric, this time coming from a school outside of the Big 12 that has been rumored as a possible Big 12 target. Realignment fatigue will continue to set in, and who knows if the Big 12 is truly looking for expansion. Either way it's hard not to at least feel a little relief considering the Big 12 isn't the hunted this go around.

Thoughts on adding Clemson?

Kansas Jayhawk News and Notes 5.24.12

2012-05-24T11:00:15Z

Kansas Athletics

Signee Perry Ellis a valedictorian | KUsports.com
Good signing. Real good.

Misc.

James Naismith’s childhood home for sale for $1.2 million | CollegeBasketballTalk
If the document featuring the original 13 rules of basketball can fetch $4.3 million, perhaps paying $1.2 million for James Naismith’s childhood home is a bargain. One catch: It’d mean living in Canada.

Big East, Pac-12 take major hits as realignment rages on - Luke Winn - SI.com
Somewhat interesting look at conference strength when realignment comes into play.

RCT Mailbag!

2012-05-23T14:01:47Z

a few more good ones this week. Remember if you want your question answered email RCTmailbag at gmail dot com

Q: With Jeff and Kevin lacking beef and stamina, which of the youngsters will be first to develop consistent defense and rebounding? Can any of them learn help defense without excessive fouls? Might we have as many as five bigs getting ten or more minutes a game?

Will it be necessary to play with natural wings doing more than their share of the heavy lifting, or will someone get footwork and positioning down by mid-season (Jan-Feb)? How much dancing and shuffling will Andrea need to include with lifting and sprinting?

-from John R.

I think Ellis is going to be starting for sure alongside Withey, and given that he practiced second semester and got a semester of college level weight training I bet Traylor will get a lot of minutes off the bench early in the season. The rest will depend on whether Landen Lucas or Zach Peters can show more basketball ability than Wesley (almost a guarantee) or whether they can add enough pounds of muscle to overcome the experience that Wesley has that we know HCBS is a huge fan of.

I would guess that we'll see one of Peters or Lucas redshirt and we'll get Withey, Ellis, Young, Traylor, Wesley and one of those two all getting pretty decent playing time. Ten a game is probably a stretch, but I definitely think we will see almost all of those guys playing ten or more minutes in any one game. Like our guards, we don't know exactly what we have up front but we do know there is a lot of talent there and both Self and Hudy have shown the ability to take raw talent and mold it into great players.

Q: Lets say you have 24 hours to commit as many crimes as you want. There will be no prosecution, no social stigma, nothing. You can rob a bank and the teller will hand you a bag with a smile on her face and wish you a good day. What do you do on your crime spree?

The hypothetical question crazy billionaire will pay you $50,000 a year for life. The horrible snag is at one random time every year, you will crap you pants. You will really really crap your pants. Might be in a meeting, on a date, in bed, who knows. $50,000 buys a lot of Depends, is it worth it?

From Andrew F.

I certainly wouldn't go so far as to murder or anything violent, but I definitely would be heading to the bank and grabbing a ton of cash (or at least making some transfers into my bank account) as well as go to Fort Knox or wherever and grab some gold since that's always appreciating in value (/Glenn Beck'd). Other than that though I think I'd be pretty boring crime wise. Maybe steal a couple nice cars and drive them around Grand Theft Auto style.

Granted I am saying this as someone staring 80k or whatever in law school loan debt, but I'd take that no problem. I wouldn't even waste the money on the depends. If I had a decent stay at home type job when I crapped my pants wouldn't really matter, and with an extra 50k coming I could afford to take less at a stay home job.

Now that MU is gone, who is your least favorite Big 12 school not named Kansas State?

- Steve S.

Well there still is a school full of hillbillies that wears gold(ish), so screw off West Virginia.

Q: Do you have a Stanley Cup pick?

From Mike S.

Sadly my preferred NHL team, the Winnipeg Jets, didn't even make the playoffs much less this stage of the proceedings, but with just the LA Kings, New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils left, I think I have to pick the Kings given their great goaltending as well as improving production up front. I will however be cheering for the Devils as they have a pair of former Sioux in Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, though I never got to see them play. (I should note that the Kings also have a former Sioux in Matt Greene, so them winning would be just dandy as well.)

Kansas Jayhawk News and Notes 5.23.12

2012-05-23T11:00:26Z

Kansas Athletics

Kansas baseball savoring Big 12 tourney appearance | KUsports.com
Baseball team in the Big 12 tourney.

Six Jayhawks Earn Recognition on Phil Steele Preseason All-Big 12 Teams - KANSAS OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
Kansas senior safety Bradley McDougald, senior defensive end Toben Opurum and senior tight end Mike Ragone were all selected preseason All-Big 12 Third Team by Phil Steele Magazine on Thursday, which highlighted KU's six selections to the Phil Steele all-conference teams. I don't know that this is a positive at all. The best we could muster is a 3rd team selection and Phil Steele tends to be right more than he's wrong of late. Hopefully we can have some guys prove some people wrong.

What's Your College Football Program Worth? Introducing Realignment Value Rankings - SBNation.com
Evaluating your school's worth in conference realignment. Kansas is ahead of Iowa State and Kansas State. Just behind TCU and Baylor. I guess that's good. I'm not sure I agree with the formula completely.

Thomas Robinson aiming high in upcoming NBA draft | KUsports.com
I think it's the right attitude to have, but Davis is going no. 1

Ex-KU O-line commitment hoping to catch on at BYU | KUsports.com
Phil Ford looking elsewhere.Although I'm not sure the new staff was looking hard at him anymore.

Big 12

Texas AD not for expanding, but admits courting Notre Dame - CBSSports.com
Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds said Tuesday he is fine with a 10-team Big 12 conference, but also admitted the Big 12 has approached Notre Dame about joining the league.

Perfect 10: UT’s Dodds doesn’t see need to expand Big 12 | CollegeFootballTalk
“We could expand to some number. You name the number — 12, 14, 16. We could expand but the question is ‘do we need to expand?’ In my mind 10 is perfect because you play everybody in football and there is a double-round-robin in basketball.”

Conference Realignment: Is There Value With Expansion?

2012-05-22T13:30:10Z

SportsBusiness Journal: CBS doesn't want to pay more for new SEC, arguing Missouri & Texas A&M don't add significant value.
— darren rovell (@darrenrovell) May 21, 2012

Yesterday there was an interesting tweet from Darren Rovell from CNBC. Rovell cited a Sport Business Journal report that CBS was unwilling to up the current SEC deal due to the additions of Missouri and Texas A&M. CBS is arguing that Missouri and Texas A&M don't add significant value and because of that it doesn't warrant a change.

How is that possible? How could adding a portion of the Texas market as well as St. Louis and at least some of Kansas City not provide value? From a selfish, fully biased, Big 12 perspective I would like to say that it's because they aren't valuable programs and the Big 12 is better off without them. Obviously that's not reality. The reality is pretty far from that, but it does point to the need for big picture thinking when adding new teams and new markets during conference realignment.

For CBS this boils down to first tier rights and the marquee matchups. CBS already airs SEC games in the markets that they've added so adding Missouri and Texas A&M doesn't necessarily equate to an instant addition of some vast new expanse of television sets and more importantly it doesn't add to their current inventory. They will still air the same number of SEC games and they already had a presence in those markets at that. Yes ratings will probably rise as both fanbases shift their attention more toward the SEC and away from the Big 12, but CBS is basically saying that expanding to 12, 14, 16 or whatever the final number may be doesn't change the CBS content model and therefore expansion alone isn't enough to automatically warrant a higher payout for the current deal. It's almost as if they are saying that in a small way there has simply been a watering down effect.

Honestly it's a little bit surprising given what we've been led to believe during all this jockeying for expansion and realignment and it might cause other leagues to take a small step back and really evaluate the true benefit of expansion. If Missouri and Texas A&M aren't necessarily adding significant value, then how could a team like Boise State, Louisville, South Florida, etc. make a strong argument? Or can anyone make a strong argument in instances where you are dealing with a limited inventory? I think there are certainly some teams and programs out there that can still bring value and expand markets, but it seems important to be selective.

Now obviously there is additional benefit for the SEC in adding Missouri and A&M. Both schools and programs are stable institutions that bring a lot of positives to the table. So this isn't to say that the move was a poor decision. The why's surrounding the CBS stance are also an important distinction. Are some SEC institutions are second guessing expansion? Maybe, but most likely they aren't. Really this is just a small but somewhat interesting twist in this whole conference realignment mess.