Royals Review

2009 SB Nation Awards: Managers of the Year

2009-11-09T14:30:26Z

Every season, the baseball team at SB Nation gets together and votes on the same name-brand season awards that the official baseball writers do. We follow the same format -- AL bloggers only vote for the AL Awards, two votes per city, etc. -- and the same points system. Like the BBWAA, votes are due before the postseason.

Today we announce the first set of awards, the AL and NL Managers of the Year. Results after the jump.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Congrats to Trey Hillman on a noble finish. I don't know who voted for him however. My own vote was as follows: Scioscia-Girardi-Wakamatsu.

And here's the National League:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Rumor: Callaspo to LA for a 28 year old backup catcher AJ Ellis

2009-11-09T06:37:01Z

Rumor: Callaspo to LA for a 28 year old backup catcher AJ Ellis

I can't even believe I wrote those words. YES! Let's cash in one of the better offensive players we have to plug a defensive hole with a stopgap!!! I CAN'T WAIT!!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ellis-001and

His minor league stats don't look terrible, and he is a Missouri native (Cape Girardeau), but I think we could probably get him cheaper than Callaspo.

This quote scares the bejesus out of me:

"Our free-agent pursuit will not be as aggressive as in the past," he said. "We’re going to focus on trades first. We’re going to exhaust every opportunity to make trades.

"In the previous two offseasons, we’ve been more likely to pop a free agent or two early on. I look for us to exhaust every possible trade scenario this offseason before we enter into the free-agent market."

Since Dayton has obviously done so well trading for talent, I wonder how badly he'll be taken advantage of this winter...

This quote from Dutton bothers me:

Callaspo, 26, became expendable Friday when the Royals acquired second baseman Chris Getz from the Chicago White Sox along with third baseman Josh Fields in a trade for third baseman Mark Teahen and $1 million.

If that's how the front office feels I don't know what to say. Hello 100 losses and Dayton Moore being fired. That's the best I can hope for.

And to end on a positive note, Bianchi is hitting well over his last 10 games in the AFL.

The Mark Teahen, Josh Fields, Chris Getz, Trade Analysis & Link Roundup

2009-11-07T08:00:23Z

First, my own unsolicited take on this trade.

The news that took eighteen hours or so to emerge was not tremendously good for the Royals. Sending the White Sox $2 million dollars changes the complexion of this trade significantly. Don't get me wrong, it's still a minor deal in the grand scheme of things, but the real benefit to the deal is now much more murkier. The financial savings is murkier, and now, for this trade to work out, either Josh Fields or Chris Getz has to contribute to the Royals during their pre-arb years. Yesterday, there were two clear benefits to the move, now there is only one.

I understand that many of you were frustrated with Teahen's stagnation, but he was basically a generic player. He wasn't great, but he also wasn't part of the problem. (His defensive numbers have been pretty bad the last two seasons, but I consider that more a function of his playing all over the diamond and sample size issues. Which may be too generous.) I understand Dayton's desire to move him, but I also understand Kenny Williams's desire to have him. And in reality, the Royals and White Sox split the difference money-wise, a fitting gesture for such a "meh" trade that neither side really seems too fired up about.

I'm not really sure how to feel about this trade. Fields' career with the Pale Hose was over, so I'm happy he gets to see a new organization. I don't like that Getz is gone. Teahen has been worth .4 WAR combined over the past two seasons and has seen his walk rate drop each year since 2007. If he can get back to drawing walks like he did in 2006 and 2007, he can be valuable again. -South Side Sox

So now, the stakes, though still small, are raised for Fields and Getz. The Royals could have just let Teahen walk after all, so in effect, they bought the rights to Getz and Fields for two million. Neither player is actually that young, but both are still green in service time years, which does matter. There's a school of thought that suggests these are the best types of guys to have, mid-to-late twenties guys who are still cheap, while there's another school of thought that might argue that this is yet another non-rebuilding move from Moore. Personally, I know myself well enough to admit that if the Royals had gotten back some as-yet-unknown barely legal rookie ball prospect, I'd probably have been more excited.

In this case, we'll just have to... wait for it... trust the process, trust the scouting. Apparently Getz is the key to the deal for the Royals, with Fields being just another low OBP slugger with no glove (also another Born Again) who may or may not be a part of anything. I don't know. The curious thing is that at the very least the Getz trade should set in motion either a reconfiguration of the infield or another trade, or two. We'll just have to wait and see.

Pointlessly premature verdict: Cash to Chicago pushes this from a slightly interesting quasi-prospect grab to a mostly innocuous head-scratcher, for now.

A massive roundup of links about the trade and other matters after the jump:

Other Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #37-31

2009-11-06T17:21:22Z

More photos » by Alessandra Tarantino - AP

Browse more photos »

Does anyone else feel like the MLB Playoffs are starting to feel like the NBA playoffs? I don't mind all the games--but all the days off are painful. The offseason has officially now begun and with fresh rumors that there might be prospects involved in the Teahen trade. Let's just say if there are prospects involved from the Royals, they better be ones I've already written about (both for the sake of making a good trade and of not messing up my list). We finish up the bottom half of the Royals Top 60 Prospects. Next week I'll do #30-26 of the Royals Top 30.

Here's a review of the previous players listed:

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54-Eduardo Paulino

53-Nick Van Stratten

52-Deivy Batista

51-Sean McCauley

50-Fernando Cruz

49-Eric Basurto

48-Pedro Nivar

47-Cole White

46-Jarrod Dyson

45-Jerico Blanco

44-Shin Jin-ho

43-Manny Pina

42-Ben Theriot

41-Dusty Odenback

40-Jason Taylor

39-Geulin Beltre

38b-Ed Cegarra

38a-Jose Bonilla

37--Malcolm Culver--3B--Age-19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook	KCR	234	203	4	3	3	24	8	4	26	41	.222	.315	.315	.630
2009	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	214	184	4	3	3	19	8	4	25	37	.217	.316	.321	.637
2009	19	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	20	19	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	4	.263	.300	.263	.563
2 Seasons						264	229	4	3	3	24	9	4	29	54	.218	.313	.301	.614

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/6/2009.

We drafted Culver in the 8th Round of the 2008 draft out of HS in California. Culver is projected to hit for power and already shows a pretty good eye at the plate. He has the tools to be a pretty good defender at 3rd base. If he does well in the spring, he could go to Low-A Burlington, Iowa in 2010.

36--Alex Llanos--CF--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	--	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook	KCR	274	252	11	3	3	30	18	9	15	77	.266	.309	.369	.678
2009	--	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	139	130	5	1	0	14	3	4	5	42	.223	.252	.277	.529
2009	--	Royals	ARIZ	Rook	KCR	135	122	6	2	3	16	15	5	10	35	.311	.366	.467	.833
2 Seasons						497	455	19	4	3	47	32	13	28	140	.229	.278	.308	.585

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/3/2009.

We drafted Llanos in the 6th Round of the 2008 draft out of Puerto Rico. He was known as a toolsy, raw kid who had some potentail with the bat. He was relatively young--playing the 2008 Arizona League at the age of 17 and posting an uninspiring 471 OPS. In his second go around in Arizona he did much better. He struggled again when he was promoted to Idaho Falls. He's still very young (won't turn 20 until next September) and I'm guessing he'll get a second go at Idaho Falls this coming year.

35--Chris Nicoll-RHP--Age:26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	25	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	KCR	4.47	39	1	88.2	1.410	9.1	0.8	3.6	7.7	2.17
2009	25	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	3.50	33	1	61.2	1.395	8.8	0.6	3.8	8.5	2.23
2009	25	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	6.67	6	0	27.0	1.444	10.0	1.3	3.0	6.0	2.00
5 Seasons						3.83	123	5	397.0	1.234	8.0	0.9	3.1	9.4	3.06

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

This is an agressive ranking for Nicoll--but I've always liked him. Nicoll was our 3rd round pick in 2005. He has battled injuries in the past and has been moved to the pen for the past couple of years. He pitched pretty well at AA last year but struggled at AAA. He's a flyball pitcher--so he will be suseptible to the HR. I think he can go back to AAA in 2010 and, if he performs well, could contribute later next year.

34--Brandon Sisk--LHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.92	45	21	61.0	0.787	4.4	0.3	2.7	11.5	4.33
2 Seasons						1.75	67	23	143.2	0.974	5.5	0.3	3.3	11.4	3.50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

The Royals recently signed Adam Frost--a 22 year old SS-from the independant leagues. Perhaps they were inspired by the success Brandon Sisk has found. We signed Sisk out of the Indy Leagues in 2008 and he been very successful so far. I've heard that his stuff is not overpowering but he seems to get the most out of it. He is pitching in the Arizona Fall League where he has pitched well in 8ip which bodes well that he could continue his success in AA in 2010.

33--Crawford Simmons--LHP--Age:19

We drafted Simmons in th 14th Round out of HS in Georgia. We signed him away from Georgia Tech. We gave him way over slot money ($450,000) because he has an average fastball but a couple of potential plus pitches in his curve and his change-up. The Royals seem to be targetting young pitchers who have several good pitches as opposed to one great one. As I've said before, I like this strategy. Simmons is a good prospect if he has an average pitch and 2 plus pitches. If Simmons' fastball gains velocity as he fills out he could become a very good prospects. The odds are against that but its worth half a million to gamble. Simmons will play short season ball next year.

32--Juan Abreu--RHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A_adv-AA	KCR	3.67	36	16	41.2	1.512	5.8	0.9	7.8	11.4	1.47
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.69	20	12	21.1	1.031	3.4	0.4	5.9	11.8	2.00
2009	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	5.75	16	4	20.1	2.016	8.4	1.3	9.7	11.1	1.14
4 Seasons						4.90	92	25	220.1	1.530	8.0	0.7	5.7	10.9	1.90

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

He certainly does strike a lot of people out. But he walks a bunch of them too and he's a flyball pitcher and he's not terribly young. He was pretty lucky with homers at Wilmington and not so lucky at Northwest Arkansas. He's the kind of pitcher you are afraid the second he leaves this team will figure it out and become some other teams Robinson Tejeda. He'll probably go back to AA in 2010 to see if he can harness his stuff.

31--Tug Hulett--2B--Age:26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	26	Omaha	PCL	AAA	KCR	442	374	27	4	11	53	9	2	58	79	.291	.384	.473	.858
6 Seasons						2833	2333	146	25	39	287	102	31	421	517	.284	.394	.418	.812

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2009.

Will this guy ever get a chance? He gets on base, has some power, doesn't kill you at 2nd base--that is valuable. We picked him up from Seattle last Spring and he got a cup of coffee last year with the big club. With the possible addition of Chris Getz--along with Callaspo/Bloomquist, it looks like 2nd base is going to be pretty packed. My guess is that we send him along to another club where he becomes a useful player.

Conflicting Reports: Teahen Trade May or May Not Be Completed

2009-11-05T22:20:16Z

The Mark Teahen Era, one marked by so many trade rumors and so much uncertainty about Teahen's role on the team at any given moment, may be heading towards a fitting end: nobody seems to know what is going on.

The Chicago Sun Times offers a straightforward report that the trade has been made, while the Kansas City Star and the Chicago Tribune are less certain. Other connected folks appear to be treating the trade as a done deal, citing the usual Royal paranoia and suggesting that all that we're seeing now is a last minute attempt to figure out who leaked this news. (Why this would be a bad thing isn't clear.)

The other piece here is the earlier rumors of a Red Sox trade, with which we began the day. This afternoon, the Red Sox acquired RF Jeremy Hermida, which you would think was probably not entirely unrelated to earlier talks.

Royals trade Mark Teahen to White Sox for Chris Getz & Josh Fields

2009-11-05T15:23:20Z

Saw it on MLBTraderumors from this link to NY Daily News

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chris Getz	107	375	49	98	18	4	2	31	30	54	25	2	.261	.324	.347

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Josh Fields	79	239	29	53	5	2	7	30	25	76	2	3	.222	.301	.347

The Royals shed Teahen's probable ~$3-4 million-ish salary. Getz & Fields are both league minimum guys.
Presumably Fields will compete for the DH job. He really shouldn't be in the field. Then again, would a Fields at 3rd, Gordon at 1st, scenario stun you?
Not immediately sure what to make of Getz. His (small sample) defensive numbers aren't good. Maybe he's a depth guy, maybe they have a plan to use him. Too early to say. I know that he wasn't popular in the White Sox clubhouse after making some seemingly innocuous statements about the younger players on the team energizing the club.

On the Field, the Yankees Are The Team of the Decade. Off It? The Red Sox.

2009-11-05T06:41:28Z

Jayson Stark wrote about this last week, including all of the relevant information: in the '00s, the Yankees have the most regular season wins, the most postseason wins, the most postseason series wins, most World Series appearances, and now, they have tied the Red Sox for the most World Series wins.

So are the Yankees the team of the '00s? They really should be, yet I'm hesitant to fully commit.

When I think back to this decade when I'm older, I think I'll mostly think of the Red Sox.

The 2004 comeback against the Yankees, which suddenly transformed the most annoying fanbase in baseball to the most annoying fanbase in sports, is, love it or hate it, the sports story of the decade.

I never really cared for the faux-poetic angle to Red Sox Nation, but the overall presence of the story in American culture is undeniable. Coming on the heels of the 2003 classic ALCS, it was unbelievable sports drama. We're all tired of it now, but by the early '00s the Red Sox "pink hat nation" was born, Fenway became the toughest ticket in sports, Red Sox fans started invading visiting parks, the whole bit. 1918. The Curse of the Bambino. Bucky Dent. Intense passion became trendy, which in turn invited more passion. The Red Sox made being a diehard fan cool.

Then there was the front office. The Red Sox went from being baseball's versions of the Redskins or Knicks to being Oakland East, they combined big market dollars with sabermetric smarts. We take this stuff for granted now, but try to remember what it was like watching ESPN, reading baseball message boards, or listening to the radio in 2003. I can't tell you how many stupid arguments I got in on the old ESPN boards. Right now, there are mainstream columnists and reporters who are more sabermetrically advanced than Rob Neyer was back in the day.

And there was Theo. Today, everyone, in every sport, is following the Theo Epstein model, but hiring a low-thirtysomething with no real jock experience was pretty crazy ten years ago. We've even seen this idea extend to the coaching ranks, especially in football. We take it for granted now, but the idea of a Darryl Morey or a Josh McDaniels would have been seen as absolutely insane in the 1990s. Maybe you hire that guy as a consultant, but you don't make the guy from Harvard the actual GM. Not only that, but they actually hired Bill James!

So when I think about all that, this was the Red Sox decade. The world we live in, in many respects, they built. The site you are reading, was partially built by the Red Sox. Despite what so many inside the game said about our destroyed national innocence, the '00s were an incredible decade for baseball. Incredible. Being a baseball nerd became cool and the Red Sox story romanticized it to the extent that it became a reality. They weren't the only cause, but they were a major factor. The rise of Red Sox Nation found a perfect pairing with the technological changes of the decade, as it became possible to watch and listen to every game, no matter where you lived. The fact that this would be commercially viable is stunning when you look back and look at attendance figures from the 1980s or 1990s. Even at places like Wrigley or Fenway which we can't imagine would ever not be full were frequently just that, and it was normal.

Ideas and attitudes change. Its akin to the current outrage over the lack of a college football playoff. In the 1980s, there was just bowls and polls, and that was good enough. If the number one team played the number seven team in their bowl game and won, that was good enough. Then an idea formed that #1-#2 should play each other, if we could just get that, it would be awesome. And now, the new obvious commonsense is that this idea is laughably insufficient. No one knows who #1 or #2 should even be. Now, it must be settled on the field. We must have a playoff. And in ten years, we will demand a larger playoff. The point is this, although people have always loved baseball, they loved it in a different way before. I was there and in 1995 you didn't have to know the score of every game, as it happened, no matter where you were. If you were male, the expectation was that your interest in sports would have to be tolerated by your girlfriend, not that you would meet her at the game, hanging out in the bar area of the publicly funded stadium in your town. And on and on.

At the same time, the Red Sox demonstrated that the ideas that so many were now voicing online, on both sabermetric sites and saber-friendly blogs (as almost all were to some extent) could not only work, they could work with frightening efficacy. The Red Sox from 2002-7 featured some of the most relentless offenses of all-time and on the whole, showed that there's no answer for a lineup where everybody gets on base. (Of course, the Yankees had been doing that for years, but that message got obscured by people talking about the wrong things, like Joe Torre's professionalism and class.) In my mind there's some generic memory of Red Sox game on ESPN, a packed Fenway, with the home team up 5-2 in the third, men on for Ortiz, and the starting pitcher already at 70 pitches.

Finally, there was the Simmons corollary, as we might call it. The Red Sox went from being a team associated with choking to one that was glorified for being clutch. A tremendous amount of time was spent by the baseball media glorying in this fact and in the middle part of the decade we all began to obsess over the failings of Alex Rodriguez, the unclutch Goofus to the Gallant St. Big Papi. This was an absolutely inescapable story for at least three years and it colored everything. (As with so much above, you can see how this aspect overlapped with the coverage and mythology of another Boston team, the Patriots. Maybe it was just the Boston Decade.)

Not surprisingly, we didn't really see this coming. That's how history tends to work. The Yankees won the World Series in 2000 and through 2003, the standout moment of the decade was not the 0-3 comeback of the Red Sox, but the 2001 Series, a seven game classic which ended with a ninth inning rally by the home underdog and was played in the days following 9/11. The Yankees lost, but in many respects they were still the main story. The dynasty was defeated, but thanks to three insanely dramatic victories, the dynasty never looked better in the process. And of course, it was New York in 2001. I don't need to remind those of us over the age of sixteen how incredibly scary that time was. Serious people suggested that we take September 11th off the calendar altogether. Normal life seemed at once inappropriate and incredible. For the Yankees to be doing all this, with the Mayor in the front row reading a FDNY cap, was some combination of surreal and sublime.

Then the Angels beat the Yankees in 2002 (which spawned the counter-revolutionary decade, which was the Angels//Marlins/White Sox/Twins small ball loving but actually win with pitching trend), followed by the weird 2003 World Series, which at the time seemed like a gigantic upset by the Marlins. In 2009, it looks like just another random title by a random team, there's been a lot of that this decade. It also just looks like another Yankees postseason loss, which we learned to expect.

And so, we bookend what most would consider this decade with Yankees titles. For me, making the playoffs nine out of ten years is a clincher. Nevertheless, so much of the baseball culture that the '00s brought was tied up with the Red Sox, who dominated the middle years of the decade, who made fanaticism seem both poetic and hip, who helped vaunt stats into the mainstream, who launched a thousand blogs, who made MLB start making baseball gear for women, who changed the front office model for sports teams and on and on.

Now about those Royals in the 2000s...

Royals Links: Is a Zack Greinke Cy Young Imminent?

2009-11-03T05:15:53Z

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke smiles and looks at the scoreboard after getting Chicago White Sox's Jim Thome to swing at a pitch during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Chicago, Wednesday, April 8, 2009. Is Greinke about to become the 2009 Cy Young? (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Browse more photos »

Are we building up to a Zack Greinke Cy Young? Greinke picked up another award late last week, seemingly building momentum for his 2009 Cy Young campaign... only that the voting for the Cy took place weeks ago and is already decided.

Only time will tell.

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #46-38

2009-10-30T14:43:30Z

The List marches on. We are starting to get to some very talented but very raw players in these rankings. We begin to see the trickles of the Royals increased investment in international scouting. The Royals have a lot of 16-19 year old players from all over world. If just one or two of them develops that will be huge. The Royals did just sign Adam Frost from the Independant League. It's really tough to know where to rank a guy like that. I would probably put him at around #45-50.

Next week we I will cover #37-30 and then we get to the Top 30 Prospects--which is where things start to get really interesting.

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54-Eduardo Paulino

53-Nick Van Stratten

52-Deivy Batista

51-Sean McCauley

50-Fernando Cruz

49-Eric Basurto

48-Pedro Nivar

47-Cole White

46-Jarrod Dyson--CF--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A	KCR	358	315	9	5	19	46	10	32	68	.276	.345	.337	.681
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	75	67	2	1	5	9	4	5	14	.343	.397	.403	.800
2009	24	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	283	248	7	4	14	37	6	27	54	.258	.331	.319	.649
4 Seasons						917	801	22	11	62	107	24	84	170	.270	.343	.325	.668

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

The Royals have been trying to talk this guy up but I don't see it. He has no power, doesn't get on base, isn't particularly young. The Royals say his defense is amazing in center. I have two problems with that: first, I'm not sure any amount of defense if going to make up for a guy who isn't even Gathright at the plate. Second, why should we believe the Royals can properly evaluate defense? He could develop into a 5th outfielder/pinch runner. He is filling in for an injured David Lough in the AFL and is not doing great there. I'm not sure if he will start 2010 in AA or AAA but if we see him playing CF for the big league club anytime soon it will mean we are in trouble.

45-Jerico Blanco--CF--Age:17

Here is our big international signing from 2008. We gave him $250,000. Blanco is a toolsy OF. He played CF last year in the DSL and hit 240/340/353 (as you will see, I'm not able to import tables from players who debuted in rookie ball last year) in about 200 plate appearances. He stole 8 bases, caugt 3 times and struck out 40 times. I like this kid-even though he is miles away from being ready--he was young last year even for the Domincan League. Hopefully, he'll be ready to come to the Arizona League in 2010.

44-Shin Jin-Ho--C--Age:17

The Royals signed their first Korean prospect last March. We gave Shin Jin-Ho $600,000 which was a record for our international signings at the time. Shin Jin-Ho is a 6' 3" catcher who is supposed to have power and is agile behind the plate. He was at instructional league this month in Arizona so hopefully we'll hear some news on how he looks. At this point, he's pretty much a mystery. I assume he'll probably debut in Arizona next summer.

43-Manny Pina-C--Age 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	22	Frisco	TL	AA	TEX	355	321	17	1	8	42	1	0	19	58	.259	.313	.393	.705
5 Seasons						1145	1035	54	3	12	111	5	0	62	136	.251	.308	.344	.652

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Pina came over from the Rangers in the Dan Gutierrez trade in September. He's known as a defensive catcher who struggles with the bat. This year he got off to an amazing start at AA--with something like a 1200 OPS the first month and then returned to earth the rest of the year. He also had some crazy home/road splits--hitting much better away from home. That probably means nothing. He profiles as a backup catcher and will probably be in AAA to start 2010.

42-Ben Theriot-C--Age 21

The Royals took Ben Theriot out of Texas State in the 9th round of this year's draft. He was known as a defensive catcher--he threw out 75% of base-stealers last year in college. He got about 100 abs in Idaho Falls before getting some kind of injury. He hit 290/389/355 during that time. I think this is a kid to watch--good defense and gets on base (I know the sample size is small but he got on base at a decent clip in college). It will be interesting to see where he plays next year as the Royals have a ton of young catching--we'll see if that quantity turns into some quality.

41-Dusty Odenback-RHP--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	2.54	17	2	39.0	1.282	8.1	0.2	3.5	7.8	2.27
2009	21	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	0.55	6	2	16.1	1.041	6.6	0.0	2.8	6.6	2.40
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	3.97	11	0	22.2	1.456	9.1	0.4	4.0	8.7	2.20
1 Season						2.54	17	2	39.0	1.282	8.1	0.2	3.5	7.8	2.27

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Odenback went to UCONN and was a fringy late round prospect last year until late in the year his FB went from 90 to 94MPH. He complimented that with a decent slider and suddenly he is drafted in the 8th round. He went on to have a successful debut at both Burlingtons. He is a ground ball machine and could become a valuable reliever. He will start 2010 at either Burlington, Iowa or Wilmington

40-Jason Taylor-3B--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	253	223	15	2	4	32	18	10	28	34	.278	.360	.417	.777
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	23	21	1	0	2	5	1	0	2	3	.333	.391	.667	1.058
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	230	202	14	2	2	27	17	10	26	31	.272	.357	.391	.748
3 Seasons						968	807	40	7	21	112	65	26	135	161	.255	.369	.400	.769

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Taylor began the year suspended for drug use--again. He ended up playing most of his time in Burlington, Iowa. This was his second go at low-A and his numbers got worse. He's got talent and he's got some on-base skills but the question is if he can get his head screwed on straight. He mainly played 3rd last year but wasn't very good over there. On talent alone, he should rank higher on this list but he seems to be squandering his talent and his opportunity. Assuming he doesn't get suspended again, he should be at Wilmington next year.

39-Geulin Beltre-CF-Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	18	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	248	226	14	2	6	27	8	6	12	64	.217	.263	.376	.639
2 Seasons						350	322	17	2	7	30	14	7	18	97	.208	.255	.339	.594

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

One of our big 2007 international signings. Beltre signed as a toolsy SS but he got moved to CF as his fellow international signee--Yowil Espinal--surpassed him. He is, as the numbers show, very raw. He showed some pop last year. He will probably got to Idaho Falls next year but could get a full season assigment to low-A if performs well in the spring.

38b-Ed Cegarra-RHP-Age:20

Cegarra was an international signee from Venezuela. He pitched well at low-A in 2007 while being extremely young for the league. In 2008, he dominated low-A and was promoted to High-A where he was so-so. Cegarra missed 2009 with an injury--and in fact I forgot about him intially and added him in as "38b" on this list. When healthy, Cegarra has a good fastball/curve combo that he commands very well. He's a flyball pitcher so it will be important for him to keep the ball in the park. If healthy in 2010, he probably will pitch in Wilmington.

38a-Jose Bonilla-C-Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	387	351	12	3	5	36	6	4	29	92	.217	.281	.311	.591
3 Seasons						513	468	21	6	10	60	11	4	34	116	.248	.307	.382	.690

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2009.

Bonilla is the oldest and most advanced of our hoard of young catchers (Bonilla, Perez, McCauley, Myers, Theriot, Jin-Ho). He needs to continue to work on his defense behind the plate but should be able to stay there--which is good because his bat probably won't play at any other position. His arm is his best defensive tool. His offensive numbers at Burlington were not very good--he needs to make more contact. He will probably start at Wilmington in 2010.

Royals Attendance Analysis

2009-10-30T02:44:28Z

This analysis of the attendance patterns of the 2009 Kansas City Royals looks mainly at 2 things: Zack Greinke and promotions. I break down promotional giveaways and non-promo days, and the ZG starts are broken down as well into separate categories for promotional giveaways and non-promo starts. Attendance is also broken down by day, and then separated into promo and non-promo days. The averages for the days can be found at the bottom of the columns along with how many games there were in each category. Some interesting facts that can be gleaned from the chart follow the Google Spreadsheet that is embedded into the page.

Thanks to averagegatsby for inspiring me to look at this in a little more detail.

I honestly did not realize how many promos KC does. There were 41 promotional giveaways that I counted. Things like Buck Night, Fireworks Friday, T-shirt Tuesday, School Day at the K, Family Night w/ Postgame concert (though it was borderline), and anything being given away counted. What didn't count? Things like Royal Nite, College Night, the Fun Run, and Cinco de Mayo celebration as there was nothing being given away. So here comes the spreadsheet, notice that the main spreadsheet is not editable, but I have included a 2nd sheet that you may edit if you would like to do your own investigation. That being said, I wish I had more time to actually perform a multivariable regression analysis on this as the results would be more meaningful than just eyeballing the data.

If the Spreadsheet doesn't embed in the page (and it looks like it won't), you may view page 1 and edit page 2 at this address:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AiAOyJUntlZWdDFOa3FtWFRtdUUxd1BJRGJyT3dDdnc&hl=en

Promotional giveaway games = 41, Non-promotional giveaways = 39

Non Promo attendance over 30,000: 3 games - Day after the Home Opener, Saturday and Sunday Cardinals games

Promo Attendance under 20,000 - 7 out of 41 games: T-shirt Tuesday #1, July 4th, 2 times on a Sunday kids give away (7/19,8/9), 8/25 T-shirt Tuesday, Fri Sep 4 Buck Night (kids back in school), Wed Sep 23 Buck Night

Non-promo attendance under 20,000: 32 out of 39 games

Most successful strategy for attendance? Schedule the Cardinals for 162 games a year.

Friday and Saturday are always Giveaways (unless you don't count fireworks), except for the day after the Home Opener vs. Yankees, and vs. Cardinals. Obviously, those are 2 very popular teams here, plus the Yankees were the first team here this year, likely highly attended no matter what.

Having a Monday Buck Night on Memorial Day likely increased attendance somewhat as kids were out of school and it was the unofficial start of summer with the holiday. Only two other Mondays went above 20,000 and one was a Greinke start.

Average Greinke start brought in 24,706 while the average Royals game brought in 22,474. A difference of 2,232.

When a Greinke start intersected a promotion there were 28,968 present, and without a promotion there were just 18,619. A difference of 10,349.

Among non-promo days, Greinke starts outdrew non-Greinke starts by 1,540 on average

On promo days, Greinke starts outdrew non-Greinke starts by 2,150 on average

So, a promo combined with a Greinke start got an extra 590 tickets sold, though I would venture to guess if you throw out the Friday Buck Nights he pitched on all three times they occurred(37,857 average!), the numbers look a lot worse. In fact, if I were to do a multivariable regression analysis, I would guess that ZG starts won't stand out at all as the last home game of the year which was a cheerleading rally for Greinke outdrew a normal non-promo start for him by 10,102. With only 6 other non-promo starts that increases his value by 1443 per game with his final start, in what amounted to a curtain call for his Cy Young season. Factoring that in, it looks like Greinke does not increase attendance much at all (except for that game obviously), but if you take into account when he hit the cover of SI, it looks like there may be an upward trend from that point on or right before it (I'm too lazy to look up the date).

I wish I had time to do a proper multivariable regression analysis instead of "eyeballing" the data.

Feel free to draw your own conclusions and comparisons, and use the editable second page of the spreadsheet!

Royals Links: Tim Hudson Destroys Our National Innocence, Fat Little Girlfriends, Etc.

2009-10-29T04:24:32Z

Remember when Alex Rodriquez destroyed our national innocence by making some kind of contract decision or statement during the opening of the World Series? Maybe you don't because the effects of this move were so traumatic for so many, that your memory from those fraught days may be shaky. Well be afraid, because now information regarding Tim Hudson's employment is out there. Expect ten national columnists basically saying they want Tim Hudson dead tomorrow. Ten, or negative five.

After the jump: an update on TPJ, a cool WAR by birthday database, tickets for hot girls, the perils of baseball in the DR, an ode & obituary for GeoCities, a great blog devoted to horrible Orioles baseball cards, and much much more.

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #53-47

2009-10-26T16:46:55Z

We continue on our journey through the Royals top prospects. In case you haven't yet committed the first part of the list to memory, here are #60-54:

60--Dylan Lindsay

59-Blaine Hardy

58-Barry Bowden

57-Rowdy Hardy

56-Matt Mitchell

55-Ryan Wood

54 Eduardo Paulino

I should have the next installment at the end of this week.

53--Nick Van Stratten--RF--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A_adv	KCR	452	394	27	5	4	52	20	8	41	51	.307	.385	.431	.817
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	291	255	20	5	1	38	15	6	28	32	.318	.393	.447	.840
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	161	139	7	0	3	14	5	2	13	19	.288	.371	.403	.774
4 Seasons						989	857	53	18	10	120	46	14	93	98	.310	.391	.449	.840

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Nick grew up around KC and the Royals drafted him the 10th round out of a St. Louis community college (is that redundant?). Nick has moved slowly through the system reaching High-A this year at age 24. He has hit pretty well in the low minors but he is a year older than Billy Butler. Of course, Van Stratten can play the field and, from reports, does a pretty good job in RF. It would be great if he can start next year in AA and keep proving his bat.

52--Deivy Batista--SS--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	276	248	8	6	13	56	9	5	19	68	.262	.309	.500	.809
3 Seasons						694	615	29	11	17	103	26	19	63	133	.270	.339	.436	.774

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

On one hand you've got a guy who plays a premium position with some power. On the other hand, you've got a guy who strikes out a ton, doesn't walk much is old for the league. I've got him ranked pretty low because I think his numbers are going to implode at Burlington next year.

51--Sean McCauley--C--Age:20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	20	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	185	167	8	1	1	14	2	0	14	29	.222	.284	.299	.584
3 Seasons						471	420	30	1	5	46	5	2	41	76	.257	.328	.369	.697

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Catchers are notorious for having funky developmental patterns--their job on the field is so unique and demanding that they many times develop slower that other positions. McCauley was drafted in the 12th round in 2007 and hit well in Arizona in 2007. He didn't hit quite as well in Idaho Falls in 2008. And last year his numbers weren't very good before going down with an injury. He will probably go back to Burlington, Iowa and hopefully his bat will come around.

50--Fernando Cruz--C--Age:19

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	19	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	200	188	11	1	3	21	2	0	7	23	.277	.308	.394	.702
3 Seasons						604	567	25	2	4	50	5	3	18	109	.242	.274	.314	.588

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Before Bryce Harper, there was another player who wanted to leave HS behind a year early to play pro ball. Fernando Cruz is not nearly as heralded or talented but he took his GED qualified for the 2007 draft a year early and the Royals took him. Some thought he would be a 2nd round talent had he waited for the 2008 draft. He predictably struggled in his first couple of years but last year showed some promise with his bat. The Royals moved him to Catcher from 3rd Base. I haven't heard how his defense is. I'm guessing he will go to short-season Idaho Falls next year.

49--Eric Basurto--RHP--Age:23

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	3 Teams	3 Lgs	A-A_adv-Rook	KCR	0.76	15	2	23.2	1.225	5.3	0.4	5.7	14.5	2.53
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	0.84	8	2	10.2	1.312	6.8	0.8	5.1	13.5	2.67
2009	23	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	0.00	1	0	1.1	0.000	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.2
2009	23	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	0.77	6	0	11.2	1.286	4.6	0.0	6.9	14.7	2.11
3 Seasons						2.00	53	2	85.2	1.307	6.8	0.3	4.9	9.7	1.96

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

You don't replace Ross Gload. Eric Basurto just needs to play his game and Royals fans need to understand that you can't compare him to a former great. Basurto was our return for sending Gload to the Marlins (and eating his salary). As you can see from his stats, he K's a bunch of folks and walks a bunch of folks. He's got a fastball and that's about it. He won't make it without developing a secondary pitch.

48--Pedro Nivar--SS--Age:17

Pedro Nivar was a relatively big international signing for us in 2008. He got six figures--which is now chicken feed on the international market. He's a SS and he posted a 233/380/291 line in the Dominican Summer League in 109 plate appearances after being injured. There isn't a lot to take away from this other than the 380 OBP is nice. Its not often you see an OBP 90 points higher than SLG--but there it is. He's toolsy and young and there is a something there to dream on at least. Best case scenario is that he plays next year in the Arizona Rookie League.

47--Cole White--RHP--Age:21

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rook-A	KCR	1.67	20	3	37.2	1.407	7.4	0.5	5.3	8.6	1.64
2009	21	Idaho Falls	PION	Rook	KCR	1.29	12	3	21.0	1.333	6.4	0.4	5.6	9.9	1.77
2009	21	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.16	8	0	16.2	1.500	8.6	0.5	4.9	7.0	1.44
1 Season						1.67	20	3	37.2	1.407	7.4	0.5	5.3	8.6	1.64

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2009.

Cole White was our 6th Round draft choice in 2009 out of U. of New Mexico. He's a reliever with a sinking fastball in the 92-95 MPH range. He has developed a slider to go with it. Since he's a reliever he might be able to get by on those two pitches. He obviously needs better control but he has swing and miss stuff and could develop into a valuable reliever.

Royals Top 60 Prospects: #54-60

2009-10-23T14:37:16Z

Well, here we go. I plan to rank 60--count 'em--60 Royals prospects. We will start at the bottom and work our way up. I was originally going to do prospects #46-60 in this post but for some reason the SB Nation format starts messing up at a certain point and won't let me squeeze all the reports in. So we will do #54-60 and the next installment should come at the beginning of next week. When we get to #30 we will slow down, go more in depth and do just a handful of players at a time. Some of these bottom guys there is precious little info on. So bring on your questions/comments/your own rankings.

60. Dylan Lindsay--RHP--Age: 17

He's not Mr. Irrelevant-he's Mr. A Long Way Off-literally and figuratively. As you read this, Lindsay is in South Africa-the country he is from-finishing high school. This spring is when the Royals scouts/staff (save the guy who signed him) will get their first live look at him. He is raw-perhaps even more raw than a Latin American talent and I'm guessing you will see Lindsay in the Arizona League in 2010.

59. Blaine Hardy--LHP--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	IP	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	--	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.05	36	3	92.1	94	0.953	6.9	0.3	1.7	9.2	5.53
2 Seasons						2.62	57	3	127.0	128	1.024	7.4	0.6	1.8	9.1	5.12

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

Hardy was a 22nd Round Draft Choice in 2008. A lefty with a below average FB, he makes up with a good curve and a changeup. He had a great year in Burlington last year and we'll see if he is still able to fool more advanced hitters.

58. Barry Bowden--RHP--Age:24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	SV	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	24	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A_adv	KCR	2.64	43	10	1.011	5.6	0.4	3.5	11.4	3.25
2009	24	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	4.50	5	0	1.000	7.2	0.9	1.8	12.6	7.00
2009	24	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	2.28	38	10	1.013	5.3	0.4	3.9	11.2	2.91
2 Seasons						2.26	65	17	1.014	5.7	0.5	3.4	11.8	3.47

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

We signed Bowden after he went undrafted coming out of Ole Miss in 2008. From what I've heard, his stuff isn't overwhelming but he knows how to use it. You will see me make similar comments with guys like Bowden, Hardy etc--the numbers look good at lower levels but the real test will be AA when they hit more advanced hitters in a more hitting friendly enviorment.

57. Rowdy Hardy--LHP--Age: 26

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	26	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A_adv	KCR	2.74	23	16	0	108.1	1.292	9.2	0.6	2.4	5.6	2.34
2009	26	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	1.88	12	6	0	48.0	1.271	9.8	0.4	1.7	5.4	3.22
2009	26	Northwest Arkansas	TL	AA	KCR	3.43	11	10	0	60.1	1.309	8.8	0.7	3.0	5.8	1.95
4 Seasons						3.34	92	80	1	511.1	1.193	9.3	0.5	1.4	5.2	3.68

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals had Hardy drop his arm slot this year and the results were mostly encouraging. He increased his K rate and was less hittable, but his walks went up. I'm guessing the hope is that he will become more comfortable and increase his control. He is now being groomed as a reliever. The odds are still against him but he's now trying to become the left handed Disco Hayes.

56. Matt Mitchell--RHP--Age: 20

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	19	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	3.47	25	21	0	116.2	1.209	8.9	0.7	1.9	5.9	3.08
2 Seasons						2.94	39	28	1	171.2	1.165	7.9	0.5	2.6	7.8	2.98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

Mitchell was becoming an intersting prospect before injuring his elbow and undergoing surgery in August of 2008. He missed the entire 2009 season but is now throwing in Instructional League. Before surgery his FB hovered around 90 MPH and his offspeed stuff was OK. Not sure if he will start '10 in Wilmington or Burlington--but the competition for a rotation spot will be fierce at both those places.

55. Ryan Wood--SS--Age: 22

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rook	KCR	223	189	9	1	2	18	5	3	29	35	.206	.315	.296	.612
2009	22	Burlington	APPY	Rook	KCR	109	92	4	0	0	6	4	3	16	15	.174	.303	.217	.520
2009	22	Burlington	MIDW	A	KCR	114	97	5	1	2	12	1	0	13	20	.237	.327	.371	.699
1 Season						223	189	9	1	2	18	5	3	29	35	.206	.315	.296	.612

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals drafted Wood this year as a Senior out of U. of EastCarolina. He had a great Senior season posting an 1112 OPS. He played 2B in college but the Royals want to give him a shot at SS. His numbers weren't great at both Burlingtons--but his stats actually improved moving to Low-A and it looks like he was somewhat unlucky. We'll see how his glove develops at SS but the bat might give him some value.

54. Eduardo Paulino--RHP--Age: 24

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	23	Wilmington	CARL	A_adv	KCR	3.63	26	22	0	138.2	1.212	8.4	1.0	2.5	5.5	2.15
4 Seasons						3.43	74	62	0	362.1	1.148	8.1	0.8	2.2	6.2	2.84

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2009.

The Royals signed Paulino out of the Dominican in 2006. I don't have much info on his stuff. His numbers have been pretty good--but it is a little alarming to see his K rate dropping as he moves up the system. Also, his numbers away from Wilmington were not very good.

Alternative Baseball Universe: Both Teams Bat in the Ninth Inning, No Matter What

2009-10-22T18:28:12Z

Imagine an alternative baseball reality in which, no matter the score, both teams bat in the ninth inning. Even if the home team has already won they game (by our standards) the game isn't official til nine innings have been completed. Although dropping the bottom of the ninth has long been advocated, and is in fact a standard in youth baseball (for sportsmanship reasons) baseball purists consider a half inning at the end of the game to be a statistical and aesthetic oddity which creates odd circumstances (mostly in bookkeeping) that disrupt the elegance of the game. And that, along with the force of tradition, keeps the "ceremonial bottom of the ninth" alive.

What would this world be like?

Obviously, there would be two approaches: to end the inning as quickly as possible, or to play the inning straight up (more on that in a below). As both gloves and bats improve, a standard approach is for the home team to bunt back to the pitcher as quickly as possible, ending the inning expeditiously. Like the kneel down play in football, there is a standard groaner about how "the winner's bunt is his favorite play". It's a strange way, admittedly, but the fans are happy and the players are happy and it doesn't take very long.
Over time, managers begin to handle the three bunts to end the inning differently. Because of the injury risk inherent in squaring around, generally bench players are used when possible. This also allows a late substitution to produce an extra ovation for a player who has a big game. Since reaching base is not a goal of the hitter, running hard is seen as bad sportsmanship. A slow jog, even a skip or a dance, is acceptable, just enough to get out of the catcher's way is what you want. Many players become known for the specific way they "run" in these situations. There's talk in each direction, and occasional outrages, but its mostly seen as a fun part of the game.
Although it takes awhile, the rules eventually define these innings as their own category of events, and the outs recorded, while part of the boxscore, do not get entered into a player's individual stats: the hitters aren't penalized and the pitcher doesn't get a free scoreless inning. However, this doesn't become official until 1947, creating a subtle divide in baseball history that still causes older pitchers to be overvalued. Floppy Ears O'Fitzthomas, widely revered as the greatest pitcher in baseball history, recorded 7% of his total innings in ceremonial fashion.
From time to time fringy minor leagues allow fans to hit in the ceremonial bottom of the ninth, though the practice is generally frowned upon and seen as disrespecting the game.
In general, the ceremonial ninth is handled the same way through the first three or four generations of the game. It's an oddity and the subject of many a standup comic's routine, but nobody really has a problem with it. "It's just a game," they say. "They don't end the football game after three quarters," they say, even though it's not really the same. Some fans like to leave before this half inning, others like to stay for it. Most of the time, it just depends on the circumstance.
In the golden age of baseball, there are only three instances in MLB history where the inning was not more or less handled ceremonially. In 1923, Billy "Left Ear" Coughlan had his hitters swing away because the man due up fourth had a 30 game hit streak on the line. Four years later, in a strange occurrence, the Toledo Ice Queens hit straight up at the request of the opposing team, who wanted to see what a young rookie pitcher could do. Finally, in 1937, the Memphis Gobblers hit straight up against the New York Kings in what was initially claimed to be revenge for an earlier beaning. Two years later it was revealed that the Gobblers were involved in a huge gambling ring and that their motivation had monetary. The two earlier instances were not popular, but also not terribly important in the more laid-back sporting world of their day. People read about it three days later and moved on. The Gamblin' Gobblers, however, were forever associated with their meaningless hitting against the Kings, an act which kills many efforts to change the approach to the inning stillborn.
Through the 1950s there was a strong movement to end the unnecessary bottom of the ninth, although never enough to get the change made. Why change something that, by definition, doesn't matter? Only the All-Star game officially drops the inning, a curious decision given that the entire point of that game is entertainment and display.
Despite the Gamblin Gobblers and the staid 1950s, something monumental occurs in the late 1960s. A young manager, Joe Mayheim, with an eclectic background that includes non-baseball activities wonders why the inning isn't used to help his team. If you have to play it, why not use it? One winter he discovers that back in the 1890s managers used to do all sorts of crazy things with that half inning. So did owners, who of course, who back in those days resembled strongly the fringy minor league guys of today.
After years of consideration, in 1968 Mayheim makes his move. Managing a young Seattle team expected to have the worst offense in the league, Mayheim tells the local press that he is planning on having his hitters hit away every inning. The Needles, he says, need the extra at bats to develop professionally. Mayheim's plan is extremely controversial, but a vocal minority both inside and outside the game, approve of the move. Opposing managers aren't happy, but short of an all-out beanball war, what can they do? The Seattle Needles are a poor team that only win 38 home games, five coming in extra innings or in a tied-ninth, so the so-called "Rascal's Ninth" is not a common occurrence. Moreover, there is little evidence that the extra plate appearances generated by the practice do much to help any of the young Needles. The practice is used sparingly in 1969. The Needles are a bad team. Mayheim is fired two weeks into the 1970 season.
Through the 1970s the practices gains a small hold as a kind of special occasion. Players with something on the line: a streak, a strikeout record, etc. are allowed to approach the inning differently, although everyone is generally uneasy about the practice. Once or twice a season a team might hit in the bottom of the ninth if they have a number of young or slumping players due up and the practice gains some currency in the September expanded rosters period. In 1974 the Arkansas Catfish score ten runs in the bottom of the ninth, sparking a renewed outrage against the practice. By the late 1970s, it is generally only seen for what could be considered ceremonial reasons themselves: Hunter Valence famously hit a home run in the bottom of the ninth in his final at bat in 1978 after asking the pitcher from home plate to let him hit.
By the mid to late 1980s however, a new generation of men are in the game. Mayheim's ideas, which are generally mocked, have a new currency amongst these young Turks, who have thought of all sorts of reasons why the inning should almost always be played straight up. Given that baseball, unlike other sports, features a schedule built around series and is something of a war of attrition, the argument is put forth that at the beginning of a three or four game series, if you can force your opponent to fully pitch another inning, you might as well use it, even if its just a 25th man mop up guy. By the late 1980s, this idea gains currency, and it becomes common for teams to play the inning straight up if they have the lead in the bottom of the ninth at the beginning of a series. Generally, it is considered excessive to do so at the end of the series however.
By 2009, home teams with a lead bat straight up in the bottom of the ninth, 37% percent of the time. The benefit of using another team's pitching staff to the max is generally understood and approved. To a lesser extent, managers have also embraced occasionally using the extra inning to get bench players additional at bats, or to get a slumping player a zero leverage chance to break out of it. Once or twice a season there's a brawl due to a player or team handling the inning improperly (such as stealing a base) and the inning remains a constant conversation piece during any broadcast of the game. Some managers never tell how they'll handle the inning, others tend to say so pregame, even telling the other manager when scorecards are exchanged. In 2004 Juan Miguelito suffered a season-ending injury sliding into second while batting in the bottom of the ninth and in the past five years, the number of doubles and triples in the inning have decreased dramatically. No one has tripled in a meaningless bottom of the ninth since 2007.

Royal's Strike Zone Judgement

2009-10-20T16:54:08Z

Yesterday at Beyond the Box Score I wanted to see if Vladimir Guerrero was able to determine if a pitch was out of the strike zone and the results. The only person I could think of with worse strike zone judgement was Miguel Olivo. I ran the same numbers for Olivo and a few other Royals. For my strike zone, I used -1.2 and 1.2 for the x dimension and 1.5 to 3.5 for the y dimension. For the expanded zone I increased the x dimension to -2 and 2 and the y dimension to 0.5 and 4.5. Here is the comparison of a few of your favorite Royals:

Description	Alberto Callaspo	David DeJesus	Billy Butler	Alex Gordon	Willie Bloomquist	Jose Guillen	Mike Jacobs	Miguel Olivo	League Average
Called Balls	76.7%	76.2%	75.6%	74.4%	73.2%	69.7%	63.2%	53.9%	71.8%
Called Strike	3.5%	3.1%	1.3%	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	2.9%	0.6%	2.2%
Fouls	8.4%	9.3%	7.9%	6.1%	8.8%	10.1%	11.3%	11.7%	9.3%
In play, no out	2.5%	1.6%	1.8%	0.9%	2.7%	1.9%	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%
In play, out(s)	4.9%	4.0%	3.4%	2.9%	5.5%	5.2%	5.2%	5.6%	4.5%
Swinging Strike	4.1%	5.9%	10.0%	12.0%	7.9%	11.8%	15.3%	26.5%	10.3%
Total Pitches	489	1328	1063	1067	559	1489	1173	648	424815
BABIP	0.333	0.284	0.345	0.244	0.326	0.274	0.291	0.234	0.303

I was surprised to see Willie's and Jose's numbers near the league averages. Most of all, I just love looking a Miguel's line. About half of the time he is swinging at pitches out of the zone. A top of that, he misses pitches 1/2 of the time. Then, with the balls he does put into play, only 23% end up as hits. I will just say this for next season, if we are going to suck, we might as well have some characters like Miguel to make fun of on the team.

Lunchtime Royals Links: Bad Umpires, 1989, NBA in KC & FDM Mail

2009-10-20T15:00:54Z

Royals:

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

Royal Centerfield Defense in 2009

2009-10-18T18:46:11Z

Here's a look at the UZR/150 numbers for 2009.

	Innings	UZR/150
Crisp	412	13.9
Maier	593	2.7
DeJesus	25	-1.4
Freel	32	-2.0
Bloomquist	164	-2.2
Anderson	192	-3.0

I think we can mostly throw out the data for DDJ and Freel, who simply weren't in centerfield enough to generate a meaningful sample. Considering that UZR/150 is a rate stat (what their UZR would be in 150 games) a -1.4 or a -2.0 is basically the equivalent of "who knows?"
The samples for St. Willie and Anderson are also small, but less encouraging. Bloomquist is a utility player without much utility, and I've written about him far too much. But what about Anderson? He's pretty much on the team because he's supposed to be a good defender (hence Treyball's constant use of him late in games). Nevertheless, his UZR/150 is pretty blah.
Mitch Maier, who like DeJesus, will simply not be allowed to be a temporary solution because he's not a Dayton guy, wasn't bad afield. I dont' think he's a gold glover, but I also think there's little reason to just assume that he can't handle the position or that Josh Anderson is better than him.

Thoughts?

Royals Sign Reggie Taylor, While it is Time to Learn How to Spell "Carlyle"

2009-10-16T22:24:51Z

From BA:

Atlanta Braves
Granted free agency: RHP Jorge Campillo, RHP Buddy Carlyle, RHP Vladimir Nunez

Carlyle one of those really tough last names to spell: its a tough word to say, and there's that damn Carlisle variation that's always throwing everyone off. Of these three, Campillo, Carlyle, and Nunez, who is most likely to become a Royal?

The Royals have also signed minor league OF Reggie Taylor, after a rigorous tryout was held to find a player with the most generic jock name possible. Dee Browns everywhere were disappointed.

Insane Trade Ideas Involving Jose Guillen

2009-10-14T17:37:52Z

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

The Dayton Moore Era has reduced us to this. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Browse more photos »

Jose Guillen will earn $12 million dollars next year. He's not a good baseball player: he can't hit anymore and he is probably one of the two or three worst outfielders in the American League. He's in the way. He makes life more complicated for the Royals, and frankly, the Royals don't need things to be any more difficult than they already are.

The Royals need to trade Jose Guillen. Everybody realizes this. The only problem is that there is no real trade market for a terrible and expensive ballplayer with injury history who also happens to have a horrible reputation in the industry (Dayton Moore everyone!).

I don't think we can overstate just how unappealing he is right now, which is why the Royals should simply release him and move on. I really have no sense of how likely this is. Yes, just two years ago Moore voluntarily brought Guillen in, and yes, his bad play is not a recent development. That being said, Moore has shown an ability to cut bait on a failed experiment (Tony Pena Jr., Gload) albeit in a tardy fashion before. It would not stun me if this happened, although it would not stun me if Guillen is the Opening Day starter in right-field either.

There is one way the Royals might be able to trade Guillen, and that is to use him to solve someone else's problem. Many have suggested a seemingly logical Guillen-Bradley trade with the Cubs in just this vein. Bradley's situation in Chicago is certainly toxic, however, he remains an actually good player and, despite a widespread assumption that his contract is a disaster, he's set to earn just $9 million in 2010 and $12 million in 2011. I think the Cubs will hear better offers than a Guillen swap.

The key for the Royals might be finding someone who should be as desperate as they are. I think they can do this by inquiring about overpaid players signed to long-term deals. Can the Royals turn Jose Guillen into someone else's salary dump? The key is to think less about the money and more about the player, if the Royals can turn Jose Guillen into a good player, they should at least consider the move. Granted, I think many of these proposed trades are insane. I'm probably shaming all of us by even giving them the light of day. However, I also think that there's a small bit of "hey, this isn't half bad, maybe there's something to this."

Let's go:

Insane Idea #1- Guillen for Vernon Wells. Wells has a no-trade clause and would probably hate the idea of coming to Kansas City. Nevertheless, the situation in Toronto has soured and he may not want to be a Blue Jay as the team (presumably) rebuilds. In exchange for the last year of Guillen's contract, the Royals would have to take on Wells' deal, which is downright onerous: $12.5 M in 2010, $23 M in 2011, $21 M in 2012, $21 M in 2013, $21 M in 2014. That's $98.5 million, though in effect only $86.5 million after the swap. The catch is that Wells might be a productive player for most of this deal. He had a anti-career year in 2009 and he needs to leave CF. If he does the latter, he'll regain alot of his overall value, which could coincide with a few bounceback years at the plate. Yea, from a pure WAR perspective he will not earn his salary, but if he's a $9 million dollar player earning $23 million, that's not the end of the world. Yea, 2012-2014 are gonna be pretty painful, but if the Royals are gonna try to compete in 2010, an outfield of DeJesus-Someone-Wells has the potential to be really good defensively, with two nice bats. I think the Jays would make this deal right now, so maybe the Royals get greedy and ask for some money back in the swap or even a favorable secondary exchange of prospects. (Wells also has an opt-out option after 2011, which seems unspeakably unlikely to occur, but I thought it was worth mentioning.)
Insane Idea #2- Guillen for Barry Zito. A similar trade as above. Zito has $94 million left on a contract that runs through 2014, if an option for the final year vests. I'd be afraid of Zito returning to the American League, but his mini-comeback season in 2009 makes this trade one you'd at least pause to consider. If you assume the 2013 club option (which is tied to innings) doesn't vest and factor in the Guillen savings, then the Zito contract is equivalent to a four year, $64 million dollar deal. The Royals would head into Spring Training with a rotation of Greinke, Meche, Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar #1, Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar#2, and Zito. With Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar#3 potentially a high-leverage bullpen arm and insurance policy. Zito was overrated as an A and is probably underrated now. Yea, his contract sucks, but it isn't your money.Tell me you're not doing a double take on this one? OK, maybe you aren't.
Insane Idea #3- Guillen for Carlos Silva. Silva is owed $23 million total for 2010-11, which becomes $25 million with a presumed buyout after 2011. Silva's contract is terrible, but he's also much worse than Zito or Wells. Less money, lesser player. However, when you factor in the savings of Guillen's salary, he's only really the next Kyle Farnsworth. I don't want Moore trading with Dr. Z anymore, but this isn't a completely unmerited trade for either side. Maybe Silva even gives you a 0.7 WAR season or something, it could happen.
Insane Idea #4- Guillen for Aaron Rowand. Rowand has three years and $36 million remaining on a fat contract signed two years ago. I'm not sure the Giants view him as a problem, but with his annual salary set to increase, they could be interested in moving him to help their chances of keeping Tiny Tim around. Rowand, like Wells, may eventually need to leave centerfield, but he probably wouldn't be terrible there in 2010. A DDJ-Someone-Rowand outfield would be very strong defensively, which could help make up for Rowand's subpar bat. If you factor in the Guillen savings, this swap would leave the Royals paying Rowand $8 million a year.
Insane Idea #5- Guillen for Gary Matthews Jr. Did you know that Gary Matthews Jr.'s regrettable contract now only has two years remaining? Matthews is owed $23 million total for 2010-11, which is barely anything compared to some of the guys we've seen. The GMJ contract has to go down as one of the worst of the decade, as he's given the Angels nothing from the very beginning. His offensive and defensive numbers are bad, but with regular playing time, I think he can be better. Not good, but vaguely ok. Of course, the Angels seem unlilkely to make this move, given management's long-standing problems with Guillen. When you're dreaming about a Gary Matthews Jr. trade and regretting these difficulties, you realize just what Dayton Moore has done to you.
Insane Idea #6- Guillen for Alfie Soriano. Soriano, incredibly, still has $90 million left on his massive contract, thanks to an $18 million dollar annual salary that runs through 2014. I think I'd rather have Vernon Wells.
Insane Idea #7- Guillen for Kosuke Fukudome. The time to make this deal was last winter, when Guillen may have still had some appeal and Fukudome's contract looked worse. Still, the Cubs would get out of the $26.5 million dollar obligation they have to Fukudome, in exchange for eating Guillen's $12 million. Fukudome's defense rated well in 2008, and was bad in 2009, so his overall value both seasons has been about the same. I wouldn't hesitate to make this deal, which also means the Cubs wouldn't do it. Then again, the Cubs have some massive contracts and (partially) selling off Fukudome could be appealing.
Insane Idea #8- Guillen for Dice K. My original idea was to look at swapping out JD Drew's contract, but its really not that bad, and I think the Boston FO values Drew's game, even if the general public doesn't. Dice-K is a different story, and the Red Sox owe him $28 million over the next three seasons. Guillen would never see the light of day in a Red Sox uniform, but the Red Sox would save $16 million in the process. The question is, would you want Dice-K for three years/$16 million?

I think you get the idea I'm proposing here: the Royals use their own Guillen salary dump to take on a bigger salary problem of somebody else's making. The key is finding a player who currently has a contract that is now seen is a milestone in his current situation, but is, in reality, not that bad of a deal

I'd make the Guillen for Silva, Guillen for Fukudome, Guillen for GMJ, Guillen for Rowand moves right now. The Guillen for Zito and Guillen for Wells deals, probably the craziest (outside of the Soriano one, which I'm keeping in just to let you know I'm not out of my mind), would be tough to make but have some appeal. The money's pretty close, but I think I'd rather take on Zito than Wells. Dice-K is essentially a reprise of the Silva situation, though he still holds some promise.

There are sound arguments why doing a trade like this is a bad idea. Why compound a problem? Why take on more bad salary? The simplest thing to do would just be to release Guillen. Given the long-term contracts already given to Meche, Soria, & Greinke, the Royals don't really have any building blocks at the moment that need to be locked up with any urgency, save perhaps Billy Butler. Our attitude towards payroll should always be the same: we should only care insomuch as any contract has an ability to affect other moves or grant unjustified playing time. To different extents, all these bad contracts might do so, though I'm tempted to say something about how keeping Dayton Moore off the free agent market might not be a bad thing.

So what do you think?

Recapping my predictions for the 2010 Royals Prospects

2009-10-12T20:11:16Z

Back in March, I gave my prediction of what the Royals Top 20 Prospects would look like at the end of the season. So before I start into my real 2010 Royals Prospect List, I thought I would look back and see how my prognostications went. I'll repost the article with my new comments in bold and italics.

1. Eric Hosmer 1B 10/24/1989 B-T: L-L

The #3 overall pick and receiver of the largest draft bonus in Royals history, Hosmer's bat was called one of the best HS bats in the past 20 years. The Hoz wreaked havoc in the Midwest league for 3 months. He hit 311/382/538 and was leading the Midwest league in homeruns with 20 when he was promoted to Wilmington in the middle of July. He hit 273/342/471 in 145 at-bats there. He hit well in the playoffs as Wilmington won the Carolina League championship. Hosmer looks like one of the most complete hitters in the minors and should hit for a high average and huge power. His arm may be wasted at 1B but the Royals are looking to expedite his path to the big leagues. They could challenge him with an assignment to NW Arkansas in 2010.

In Retrospect: The Hoz didn't exactly dominate the Midwest League--he had a bad 1st month then had a good 2nd month, got hurt and struggled and was starting to do well until the Royals promoted him to Wilmington where he struggled again. I still have a lot of faith in his ability and think he will bounce back next year but right now he clearly isn't one of the most complete hitters in the minors.

2. Mike Moustakas 3B 9/11/1988 B-T: L-R

Depending on the day you ask, you will get different answers from me about who is the Royals Top Prospect. While I gave Hosmer the nod, Moustakas has more defensive value and should help sooner. Moustakas started off slow again (but nearly as bad as 2008), this time in Wilmington, playing for the Blue Rocks hitting 245/320/400 in April. He caught fire from then on and finished with a line of 290/370/490. He has played good defense which will present a good problem to have when is ready to challenge Alex Gordon at the big league level. He could have moved up AA towards the end of the year but the Royals' brass wanted to give him and Hosmer to play together. Moustakas will start next year at AA with a promotion to AAA later in the year. The Royals don't like players to skip levels and are mindful of their last young 3^rd base prospect who skipped AAA and his growing pains.

In Retrospect: On the bright side, he hit better in April than I predicted. But it was mostly downhill after that. The power was alright but getting on base was a problem. I don't know what the future holds for Moose but I'm more down on him than I am on Hosmer.

3. Kentrail Davis CF 6/29/1988 B-T: L-R

The Royals took Davis with the 12^th overall pick in the 2009 draft. As a draft eligible sophomore and Scott Boras client, he had more leverage than your normal college player. Davis made the Royals 4^th straight 1^st round Boras pick. The Royals actually signed him early-there were a couple of hours left until the deadline on August 15^th. He went to Low-A Burlington where he hit 306/367/489 in 62 at bats. Davis' bat is special as he should hit for a high average, good power and draw an above average number of walks. He defense is CF is not great but the Royals hope to work with him there and his arm is a tick below average. Being 5' 9" and a CF who can hit, one can't help but draw Kirby Puckett comparisons. He should start next year at Wilmington.

In Retrospect: At the time I made this prediction, Davis was raking. He slumped in the later part of the year and slid to the supplemental 1st round where the Brewers grabbed him. Of course, we ended up with Aaron Crow--and even though Crow wasn't my 1st choice, he's a better prospect than Davis and I didn't think we'd get a shot at such a good player with the #12 overall pick.

4. Daniel Gutierrez SP 3/8/1987 B-T: R-R

Danny Gutierrez showed why the Royals have been so excited about him. He started at Wilmington and had a 2.59 ERA in 74 innings with 92 Ks and 21 walks. He was promoted to NW Arkansas and had 3.13 ERA in 52 innings with 55k and 9 walks. He has always had a great fastball/curveball but his changeup improved this year. He could have an outside shot of being with the big club in 2010 but will probably get some more seasoning in Omaha. He has a shot at being a #2 starter for the big club at some point.

In Retrospect: Funny how things work out, huh? Gutierrez had a nightmare year--from injuries to run ins with the law to run ins with Royals management. We ended up selling low on him to the Texas Rangers. He would not be the Royals #4 prospect were he still in the organization but he remains an arm with good upside if he can get his head screwed on straight.

5. Kelvin Herrera SP 12/31/1989 B-T: R-R

19 year olds who pitch in full season ball, have outstanding stuff and command of it are a rare thing. Kelvin exploded this season going to Burlington, Iowa and posting a 2.38 ERA in 92 IP with a WHIP of 1.02, 98K's and 21 walks. He has a low-mid 90s fastball with a good change up. He tightened up his curveball this year but it is the thing he will need to work on in the future. Herrera is 5' 10" so his stuff may not get much better but it is already plenty good. He knows how to pitch and trusts his stuff. The last time the Royals had a pitcher who was this polished/this young his name was Greinke.

In Retrospect: Pitched in all of one game this year. Has some arm problems that the Royals think will heal without surgery. Hopefully will pitch next year and is plenty young enough to bounce back.

6. Mike Montgomery SP 7/1/1989 B-T: L-L

Mike Montgomery had a great first full season in Burlington. He posted 2.84 ERA in 124 innings with 119 K's and an excellent amount of groundballs. He has started to put some weight on his frame and increased velocity into the low 90s last year. He already has a good changeup that could become very good. I am a big fan of young pitchers with good changeups. The question is whether his palm ball which functions as a curveball will be effective against more advance hitters. Hard throwing lefties who get ground balls and have good control are a very good thing and Montgomery will pitch in Wilmington in 2010.

In Retrospect: Now the list gets more fun. I thought I was being aggressive with my prediction but he surpassed that by posting ERAs in the low 2's at both Burlington and Wilmington. Instead of Wilmington in 2010, its probably NW Arkansas and he has vaulted himself into one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

7. Dan Duffy SP 12/21/1988 B-T: L-L

Dan Duffy, after an amazing 2008 in Burlington followed it up with a very good campaign with an uber-talented Wilmington ballclub. He posted a 3.45 ERA in 117 innings for Wilmington with a 1.21 WHIP and 124 K's. He's got a good fastball and a good changeup and a curveball that is improving. If he can consistently command all three pitches, he will have a chance to be an excellent pitcher. He'll turn 21 at the end of 09, so he still has plenty of time to learn his craft.

In Retrospect: Again, did better than I predicted with an ERA a shade under 3 in 126 IP (I predicted 117) with a 1.16 WHIP (vs. 1.21) and 124K (125K). Will be interesting to see how he does in a hitter friendly Texas League.

8. Tim Melville SP 10/9/1989 B-T: R-R

Melville went into his senior year at HS rated the #1 prep player in the country by Baseball America. He had an inconsistent senior year but his stuff improved by the end of the season. He was looked at as a mid-1^st round pick. But he told teams that he was committed to college-except for one team apparently. The Royals took him in the 4^th round in 2008 and it was soon an open secret that he would sign for as the August 15^th deadline approached-which he did for $1.25 million. Melville stayed in extended spring training but finally appeared in Low-A in June. He had an 3.88 ERA in 68ip with a 1.28 WHIP, 71 Ks and 31 walks. His fastball is a plus pitch and he has a good curveball and an inconsistent changeup. He could be an above average starter and should get more innings next year in Wilmington.

In Retrospect: My prediction was pretty good--he pitched more innings that I predicted but the rates are pretty similar. Didn't dominate but did decently for a year out of high school.

9. Dan Cortes SP/RP 3/4/1987 B-T: R-R

Cortes came into the year as one of the Royals best prospects but struggled with being ineffective and injured this year. He went back to AA as a starter and had an 4.41 ERA in 41ip before straining a hamstring and missing 6 weeks. The Royals were careful with him as they brought him back, allowing him to pitch in relief where he was quite effective-posting a 2.67 ERA in 17 IP back at NW Arkansas and Omaha. It is unclear whether the move to the bullpen is permanent. If the Royals want to keep Cortes as a starter, they will probably give him some more time at Omaha. If they like him as a reliever, he could break camp with the Royals in the spring of 2010.

In Retrospect: I was right that it was a struggle of a year for Cortes. He didn't battle injury but he did have a run in with Arkansas Justice. He then was sent to Seattle for a young, dynamic SS. He struggled initially after the trade but pitched quite well down the stretch. I'm sure he won't come back to haunt the front office.

10. Johnny Giavotella 2B 7/10/1987 B-T:R-R

Johnny Giavotella is bringing the world together-scouts and sabermatricians alike love this kid. The scouts love him, not for his classic baseball build, but he is an old time ballplayer-a scrapper, full of (dare I say it): grit. Stats minded folks love his results: a middle infielder who can hit, draw a walk and doesn't kill you with the glove. In Wilmington this year he hit 304/366/440 with 19 steals and getting caught 7 times. He looks like an ideal #2 hitter and will start 2010 in NW Arkansas but could get promoted in mid-year.

In Retrospect: Johnny G's numbers don't look great at first blush but underneath his batting average are some really intriguing stats. His defense is not very good but he can get on base.

11. Jeff Bianchi--offensive minded SS

In Retrospect: One of my better calls as Bianchi had a good year.

12. Salvador Perez C-young catcher with offensive potential

In Retrospect: Still has offensive potential but struggled in full season ball.

13. John Lamb LHP-08 draftee who recovered from injury to show potential

In Retrospect: Did just that and looks to be a good prospect.

14. Blake Wood RHP-inconsistent starter who could be above average starter

In Retrospect: Injured most of the year, disappointing numbers when he did pitch.

15. Derrick Robinson CF-fast CF whose bat is making incremental steps forward

In Retrospect: Hit horribly all year--except for the month of August.

16. Keaton Hayenga RHP-another high ceiling pitcher who is recovered from injury

In Retrospect: Pitched OK but the Ks were lacking

17. Joe Dickerson CF/LF-David Dejesus lite

In Retrospect: Got injured and then promptly retired. Weird.

18. Tyler Sample RHP-great stuff, Royals are reworking his delivery

In Retrospect: Came back with good numbers this year.

19. Guelin Beltre. SS-Latin American middle infielder

In Retrospect: Should have picked his International Free Agent counterpart--Espinal

20. Carlos Fortuna RHP-good stuff, young

In Retrospect: Still has good stuff but has gotten a year older in the past 12 months.

Recap:

I whiffed pretty good on the top 5- I expected more from Hoz and Moose but they will still be top 5 prospects for the Royals. I did much better on the bottom half of the top 10. This exercise shows that it is really hard to predict a season's worth of prospects. I got some right (Montgomery, Bianchi, Lamb and Cortes were probably my best calls) and looked ridiculous on some others. I predicted the Royals would have a top 5 farm system. There's no way they are there now--we are probably about the same as last year--maybe a tad better (I'm guessing #10-12) depending on how far you mark down the supposed big bats.

Program note: Next week I should start rolling out the top prospect list, starting at the bottom and doing a few each week.