Rufus on Fire - All Posts

NBA Draft Lottery and Bobcats press conference superthread

2013-05-21T18:00:06Z

First up, we have the Bobcats' news conference scheduled at 6 p.m. EST, per Rick Bonnell. They are expected to announce the team's decision to change the franchise's name to the Hornets.

Shortly after that, the NBA will have the draft lottery on ESPN at 8:30 p.m.

Godspeed, ping-pong balls.

The following are the Bobcats' odds for each draft pick:

First - 19.9 percent
Second - 18.8 percent
Third - 17.1 percent
Fourth - 31.9 percent
Fifth - 12.3 percent

Reports say Bobcats will announce they wish to change name Tuesday

2013-05-21T00:35:19Z

According to Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer the Bobcats will announce that they wish to change their name to the Hornets Tuesday.

As many know, the Bobcats were originally the Charlotte Hornets throughout the nineties before being moved to New Orleans in 2002. New Orleans changed their name to the Pelicans, giving the Bobcats the opportunity to reclaim the Hornets name.

The announcement will take place at Time Warner Cable arena Tuesday at 6 p.m. EST.

This does not come as too much of a surprise considering news broke Saturday that the Bobcats started the name-changing process. I do find it weird that the team chose to make the announcement on the same day as the draft lottery, however. Maybe they're looking for some luck. Either way, according to Adam Silver, a name change can't take place for another 18 months which means the Bobcats would not be able to officially adopt the Hornets name until the 2014-2015 season.

More: Bobcats begin name-changing process Bobcats statement about name change (Jan. 20)

Season review: Mike Dunlap

2013-05-19T12:00:08Z

The Bobcats fired rookie head coach Mike Dunlap shortly after the season ended, to the confusion and anger of some, and satisfaction of others. A season after the infamous 7-59 record, he had helped the team win 14 more games this year, though with the benefit of a much better roster with more confident young players and a longer season. The Bobcats front office said that they were looking for something else to build their youth around.

And so today, we'll look at how well we think Dunlap did this season.

Ben

It's tough to grade a coach with only one season under his belt. A complete culture change cannot occur in a single season. Personnel turnover had only begun when Dunlap came in. Only a certain amount of blame can be placed on Dunlap for failing in defense when the team's roster has such limited talent on that side of the court.

And yet, Dunlap did fail, especially on defense. His zone defense scheme had neither the talent nor the discipline to work, helping make for one of the worst defenses in the league. The offense was only slightly better, but still lacked discipline and execution. There was a clear lack of off-ball movement and too much reliance on dribble-drive penetration as a result until Josh McRoberts and Gerald Henderson gave the Bobcats and offensive boon late in the season. However, he did get the team to consistently give their full energy every game, which is something I can appreciate.

The topic of player rotations was also a point of irritation for some fans, especially with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Dunlap often went away from Kidd-Gilchrist due to offensive deficiencies even though his on/off statistics show a net positive when he's on the court.

With all these things considered, I'd have to grade Mike Dunlap's first and last season as Bobcats head coach as a C-. He wasn't dealt good cards, but I thought he did slightly below average for what he had. With another season or two under his belt with a better roster and more experience, who knows how much he could have improved, but clearly the Bobcats felt that his potential improvement could not match the possibility of finding a better coach.

Chris

I give Dunlap a C- on the season. As many know I'm well documented on supporting Dunlap this season. I feel like with the situation he was given he didn't do as horrible as others may think. He was given a bad roster where he had literally no direction to go but up. He played the young players minutes (probably should have given MKG some more) and the team definitely improved. In January the team was almost unwatchable. Midway through March the Cats looked like an actual basketball team. So the young players grew and the team became watchable. That's about all we wanted or expected from him, right?

David

I really like that Mike Dunlap is a basketball guy, through and through. At the time of his hiring so long ago, that was the thing I was most excited about and so it probably makes sense that he's no longer the head coach of the Bobcats. For in the NBA, or really at any level, you do have to be more than just a "basketball guy." Everyone at the NBA level is a basketball guy, so you have to be able to relate to your players, work with your players and get them to buy in to what you're trying to do, among other things.

But it appears as if that failure to connect was his ultimate downfall. The pundits (pundits being everyone on the internet who LOVES cracking wise about the Bobcats, so...everyone on the internet) scream the what-did-you-expect-of-him line, and with good reason. The Bobcats were so bad the season before that almost any uptick in anything would have been an improvement. It was nice to see Charlotte get more wins, because hey, wins are fun. And Kemba Walker, Byron Mullens, and Bismack Biyombo all improved but those players deserve credit for making strides, it wasn't just Dunlap. The ineffectiveness of the zone defense seemed a fireable offense, but only when the Bobcats were running the zone defense. And the inability to juggle lineups and develop any real reliable rotation hurt Dunlap's look too. I can't fault him a ton for personnel decisions (although, yes...I want to see MKG play more) because the makeup of this team is still far from desirable. But the fact that no players have said much of anything on the subject speaks to the feeling that no one fought for him, or even will miss his practices enough to tweet something out. Whether or not the firing was good will ultimately depend on who the next hire is, and that has nothing to do with Dunlap. I will miss the chance for a national viewing audience to see his post game track suit jacket over his shirt and tie, but maybe some college will give him a shot. He's got a lot of basketball knowledge and has a place on some NBA bench if he so chooses. Still, I have a hard time giving him anything higher than a C+, but I'll give him some credit for starting fast out of the gate and finishing the season strong. Good enough for a final grade of B-.

Derek

In some ways Mike Dunlap's lone season as Bobcats coach is difficult to grade, but in other ways him being let go after the season makes it easier. He did some good things like getting the team to play hard almost every night and saw the team's key prospects continue to develop with his staff. However, there was also some downside as well. While some players developed, others found his approach off-putting. He also insisted on trying to incorporate the zone defense despite having that is athletically capable of playing man-to-man, and NBA teams are more than capable of shooting over a zone, too. If that's not bad enough, he never seemed to be able to lockdown a set rotation, which would be understandable as a rookie coach, but they were still rather questionable at years end. I mean, I'll never understand the point of benching Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the 4th quarter in favor of mediocre veterans who have no future on the team.

It's tough to give one year to a coach and offer a complete grade, but based on the Bobcats evidence they must not have seen a coach that was capable of improving into a better NBA coach, or be the one who oversees this team growth for the coming years, so that effects his grade some. For now I'll rule Mike Dunlap's season an Incomplete.

Joshua

Traditionally, to "be in the zone" is a good thing. Not the case for Mike Dunlap and the Bobcats.

A few years ago, I fell in love with zone defense when I saw the Dallas Mavericks run it effectively in the NBA. Then, my hometown team -- the Toronto Raptors -- hired the architect behind the Mavericks' defense. I loved what I was being treated to. Zone defense is absolutely gorgeous if it's run well.

Then, the Bobcats hired Mike Dunlap. I admittedly didn't know much about him at the time of the hiring, but after reading about him learned that he liked zone defense. Well, Dunlap brought it with him to the Bobcats. But it was a pure zone defense, not one that had been adapted to the NBA game, like the Mavericks' "match-up zone".

Long story shot, it failed. Brutally. The trick to being a good NBA coach is changing your ideal system to exploit your players' strengths, rather than trying to box them into specific roles that limit their impact. Dunlap was a victim to the latter mindset.

I'm giving Dunlap a C. He's an ever-so-slightly-below-average coach -- like most NBA coaches -- but he was thrown a head coaching gig before he was ready. He didn't have a lot to work with, sure, but too many times we saw Dunlap make counterproductive decisions and sometimes fail to make a decision at all. He might be a good coach in the future. He just wasn't ready.

Charlotte Bobcats begin process to change name back to 'Hornets', reports state

2013-05-18T05:03:36Z

CBS Sports reports that the Bobcats have begun the process to return the Hornets name back to Charlotte's NBA team, citing a source with knowledge of the process and a website domain ownership change.

Honestly, what I write after this doesn't even matter. At this point, everyone's pretty much made up their mind whether they want the name back or don't want it back or don't care if they're called the Charlotte Centipedes.

As it seems, a majority undoubtedly wants the name back, but as future NBA commissioner Adam Silver said to season ticket holders in April, such a change would take at least 18 months. The Bobcats have been diligent in trying to judge public opinion with surveys and polling groups since the New Orleans Hornets announced their rebranding to the New Orleans Pelicans.

I don't know. Maybe I've just expected this regardless so I'm not excited or anxious for more developments or whatever. Perhaps I've been drained because of how the topic of a name change has been raised every six months for the past few years or how obnoxious some people are about a perceived necessity of a name change while many of us watch a miserable product on the court on a nightly basis. Honestly, I'm much more excited or anxious or whatever for the draft lottery, draft workouts, the draft and, hell, anything that actually has to do with improving the team's future at this point.

But by all means, I welcome everyone who wants to celebrate!

(sidenote: nbabobcats.com redirects to Lake Norman Real Estate)

Player Review: Jannero Pargo

2013-05-16T20:29:35Z

Jannero Pargo has not only been on nine teams in his eight season career, he's played on three separate teams just this season, finishing the regular season with the Bobcats. His 18-game affair in Charlotte was by far his most successful of the year, since he only lasted seven games with both the Hawks and the Wizards.

Season Analysis

It's hard to delve into an analysis of the final third of a 33-year old fringe guard's season with the second-worst team in the league without asking yourself what the hell you're doing with your life -- especially when the results are likely to be inconsequential -- but I'll try my best.

In 18 games of action, Pargo scored 8.4 points on 40.1 percent shooting from the field and 38.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc in 16.2 minutes per game. What did it mean? Not much. He wasn't amazing by any stretch of the imagination and the Bobcats already have their resident gunner in Ben Gordon.

But for a 10-day-contract-turned-signing in mid-March? You could do a lot worse.

Pargo's illustrious stretch with the Bobcats won't warrant much praise from the statistical community. Since March 14th (the day Pargo signed with the Cats), only Byron Mullens had a lower net efficiency rating. Of course, Mullens' feat was much more impressive since he plays the majority of his minutes with the starting line up. Obviously, the -13.6 figure should be taken with a grain of salt. First of all, individual on/off numbers are flawed by nature, often representing the strengths and flaws of certain line up combinations rather than individual ability itself. Second of all, an 18-game, 16 minute per game sample size is ridiculously small.

Still, the numbers do represent a larger, more obvious trend that doesn't need NBA.com's Stats tool to help fortify it: Jannero Pargo just isn't very good.

Best Moment

Pargo's best game with the Bobcats was quite easily his second one, in which the Celtics easily handled the Bobcats. Pargo scored 18 points and notched five dimes.

What to work on

Pargo is who he is, at this point. He's 33 years old, he's a perennial journeyman and maybe once a year he'll shoot you back into a game.

Grade and future

As far as Pargo's grade goes, it's hard to make a concise judgement on a player who spent just over a fifth of the season with the team. For now, I'll give him in an incomplete. Time, and the Bobcats' injury situation, will tell if that status will ever change. If Charlotte's guards start dropping like flies, there are a lot worse replacement calls you could make than Pargo.

Player Recap: Reggie Williams

2013-05-16T20:01:40Z

Reggie Williams is a lot like you and me. All he wants to do is have a good time. Some people are just content with sitting around, whether it be on a sofa or a bench.

(via Reggie Williams' Instagram account)

I want you to look closely at that photo. If you look carefully you'll notice that Williams' cookies are homemade, which suggests that he knows how to bake. This is encouraging, even if the average chocolate chip cookie has roughly 10 grams of sugar in it. I guess you don't need to be in the greatest shape when you play a mere 10 minutes in less than half of your team's game. I'm just happy Reggie's happy.

But there's a problem. I don't know Williams personally but this photograph suggests that he is not an environmentally friendly lad. See that 8" styrofoam plate? Those two bottles of water? That's not a good look in 2013.

There's one more thing I want you to notice. Williams' weapon of choice in Call Of Duty is the M16A4. I'm no gun nut, but I play a lot of video games and know that this particular assault rifle is highly accurate and most useful from long range. A lot like Reggie, really.

Wait, this is a season review? Oh. Let's get to the actual season review, then.

Season Review

No matter the sport, Reggie Williams is a natural scorer.

(via Reggie Williams' Instagram account)

I don't know who KEDO is, but Reggie Williams tripled his score. That's nothing against KEDO. I'm sure he's a nice guy. It's just that Williams is an excellent bowler. The fewest number of pins Williams knocked down in a turn was eight. He also had four spares and four strikes.

Give him a ball, and Williams will score.

Oddly enough, Williams is a decent play-maker as well. Long regarded as a gunner, Williams' 3.7 assists per 36 minutes may surprise some people. I don't know where he developed a reputation as a selfish gunner, but it's largely inaccurate.

Williams has never used a higher percentage of a team's offensive possessions than he did this season. Thing is, he only shot or turned the ball over on one fifth of the team's possessions, with a usage percentage of 19.2. Coupled with a solid assist percentage of 18.2 (which means Williams is responsible for roughly a fifth of the team's assists when he's on the floor), you begin to see that Williams might be a pretty good offensive player.

But that's not news. We knew that.

What's interesting is this: Williams took 131 field-goal attempts this season, and 33 percent of them were spot-up 3-pointers. He converted a solid 37.2 percent of them, too. The rest of Williams' offense is pretty evenly divided, although he does show promise in the pick-and-roll (1 Point Per Possession on 19 possessions) and in transition (1.04 PPP on 23 possessions). He didn't get many opportunities in these areas last season (and really, not many opportunities in general), and I'd like to see what he's capable of as a larger feature in the offense.

But here's where things go downhill for Williams: He's an abysmal defender.

Overall, MySynergySports.com has Williams ranked as the 255th best defender in the league, which is a fancy way of saying he's very, very bad. It's not entirely his fault; Williams is flat-footed and not very quick. Sadly, genetics are not on his side. Where it is his fault, however, is his awareness. Too often, Williams completely loses track of his man and because of his less than ideal physical tools is too slow to recover. This can be seen in Williams' horrid 1.08 PPP allowed on spot-up opportunities, ranked 300th in the league.

Not a lot you can say about Williams. He's a very good offensive player, but a very bad defensive player. You know, the stereotype.

Best Play

I scoured YouTube to the best of my ability and found absolutely nothing of interest. A couple made threes, a layup, and a turnover. Nothing worth sharing.

This, however, might fit in well.

Yes, they have Reggie Williams interviewing Kemba Walker. I am especially fond of how animated Williams is when he talks. Contrasts his monotone voice well. I also like how Williams pronounces Under Armor.

Things to work on

It's not easy to improve on defense. But somehow, some way, that needs to be Williams' goal.

Future with the team and grade

Let's be honest. Williams is not in the Bobcats' future. He was most likely a stop gap until the Bobcats found a replacement for him. With his contract expiring, I imagine the team will look for other options. Williams is a niche player, able to flip a game on its head with a few key buckets and assists. However, if you keep him in too long he'll be exploited on the defensive end. The Bobcats have plenty of scoring already. I like Williams, but he's not needed.

In terms of a grade, I'd give Williams a B-. It's hard to give him anything else. It's a passing grade but not a very good one. Williams was available when needed, was by all accounts a good locker room presence, and he reminds me of James Harden for some reason. So yeah, a B- seems about right.

Player Review: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

2013-05-11T15:01:14Z

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's rookie season was filled with all of the ups and downs NBA newcomers typically experience coming into the league. Considering the fact that he was the youngest player in last season's draft and also that he was thrust into a starting role immediately, Kidd-Gilchrist handled his rookie campaign well. Really, he came as advertised out of Kentucky, for better or worse. We knew he would bring good athleticism and hustle, but would likely struggle with his jumpshot, which he did. Yet, despite these struggles there is still a lot to look forward to with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

Season Analysis

Kidd-Gilchrist and the Bobcats were two of the NBA's biggest surprises in the month of November. In fact, Kidd-Gilchrist was voted NBA Rookie of the Month for November for starting all 15 games and averaging 10.9 points per game and 6.5 rebounds per game on 45.5 percent shooting as the Bobcats managed to hover around .500 at the time. This was also a time we talked about rookies other than Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis. Weird, I know.

In December, Kidd-Gilchrist continued to build upon his strong NBA start as he brought his field goal shooting up to 56.2 percent while also dishing out an additional 0.6 assists per game. For a player that is mostly a small forward, 56.2 percent is pretty darn good, even if we're only talking about a fifteen-game sample.

Now 30 games into his career, Kidd-Gilchrist finally ran into the infamous Rookie Wall he had heard so much about. His shooting percentage dipped to the low-thirties and suddenly his shot was called into question once again. On top of all of that, he finished January averaging a full rebound less per game. Thankfully January was over, right? Wrong. In fact, with the way his February would go as far as the concussion, 30.9 percent shooting and reduced minutes, I'd bet Kidd-Gilchrist was probably wishing that January would return. It was really that bad. To be fair, he was not the only Bobcats player dealing with injuries at this time, and injuries to the team's big men really affected the driving lanes he could get where he is most effective. Of course, this put more pressure on Kidd-Gilchrist, and given his ability to create his shot at this point, he saw his minutes cut in addition.

A rookie has two choices once he hits his rookie wall: push forward or let it get the best of you. Thankfully, Kidd-Gilchrist chose the former and was rewarded with production that mirrored the figures that won him Rookie of the Month earlier in the season. It was a long and trying season for the youngest player in the league, but he bounced back well and finished the final twenty-four games of the season strongly.

As you would imagine. Kidd-Gilchrist shone brighter the closer he played to the basket than not. According to MySynergySports, he was most effective on types of plays including: cuts, offensive rebounds, hand-offs and in transition. In each of those areas, he shot between 50 and 64.5 percent. As far as points per possession, he put up excellent numbers in those areas as well with averages of 1.18 in all but Cut plays where he averaged 1.19 PPP. Be happy - those numbers are above average.

Defensively, Kidd-Gilchrist was the common denominator in the Bobcats' top two defensive lineups, which also happened to be their top two most used lineups. Yes, they had top defensive linueps. Be nice.

Where He Can Improve

Hmm...it's so hard to think of any one thing. I just can't put my finger on it. Oh, no! Look below! That tree is on fire!

Oh, my bad; that's not a fire. That's Kidd-Gilchrist's shot chart for the season. Fortunately they say that the easiest thing for a player to improve upon is their jumpshot. I mean, this can't get worse, can it? I just hope that Mike Dunlap benching Kidd-Gilchrist automatically for fourth quarters of games doesn't permanently damage his confidence in his shot because he is so young.

Two things stand out about the NBA Stats chart above: 1) He didn't take enough threes above the break being a 50 percent shooter (joke); 2) 56 percent within ten feet is pretty bad, but that's slightly misleading. Look at this table from Basketball-Reference.com.

What's this? 62.7 percent shooting at the rim on 314 attempts? That's actually almost three percentage points above average. Now, the NBA Stats shot chart isn't wrong; it shows data from 8-feet-and-in, which we see is where Kidd-Gilchrist began to struggle last season in terms of shooting. This is why it's helpful to cross-reference multiple sources although both obviously tell us he needs to improve his shooting. Here's the thing about that: Look at the shot locations on the Basketball-Reference table and then look at the number of attempts. Hopefully you noticed that the places in which he shot the most he also shot the highest percentage, and that should be somewhat encouraging because he may just need the repetitions. The Bobcats, and ourselves, will have to be patient with Kidd-Gilchrist because he's a long ways away from average from just about anywhere on the floor. However, he is a 45 percent shooter now and it's not crazy to think he could raise that figure towards the mid-fifties if he improves.

In order for Kidd-Gilchrist to actually improve he will need a coach who is going to let him miss some shots in order for him to build that confidence. It's no more helpful than benching to say "Oh, we'll work on this in practice tomorrow so just cut to the hoop today," because being able to shoot well in a game situation is something completely different than practice. Right now he's mostly playing within himself and only scoring at the rim (below), which means he's getting high percentage looks, but you also want him to be comfortable shooting from range.

Chart courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com

Best Moment

Future and Grade

Considering Kidd-Gilchrist's full-body of work this season, we have many reasons to be optimistic about his future. Is he a superstar? Probably not. Would you be happier to have him on your team than playing your team? I would agree with that. If you're still not convinced, here is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's rookie season stacked against Richard Jefferson's, who went on to be a productive NBA starter for nearly a decade.

Right down to both players being named Rookie of the Month one time, these two are surprisingly similar. Percentages, shot attempts, turnovers and assists are almost identical. Per 36 Michael's fouls per game are much better and he is also a better rebounder than rookie Richard Jefferson. Jefferson was also terrible away from the rim as a rookie, too. The thing is, it takes time for players to develop. Do you know what Jefferson shot from three during his sophomore season? Twenty-five percent. However, he kept shooting and is now a 37 percent career three-point shooter. Yet, perhaps the most encouraging factor in-play here would be that Kidd-Gilchrist is almost four years younger than Jefferson was during his rookie year.

As long as Kidd-Gilchrist gets the proper developmental crew around him, there is a ton of hope for his future. He has the right attitude and the physical tools to get there as well.

Grade

Alright, if Kemba gets an A-, and if MKG is the Bobcats' second-best player, he should get a B- right? Think about it. He earned Rookie of the Month honors, fought through a massive slump and a concussion, and wound up finishing the season strong. Plus, he gets puppy points for the one he adopted during the season.

Bobcats coaching search cut short as team mistakenly rehires Mike Dunlap

2013-05-09T13:00:05Z

After firing first-time NBA head coach Mike Dunlap after one season, the Bobcats have accidentally rehired him weeks later without realizing it.

"We looked at his résumé and we were smitten. Defensively innovative, attention to detail, emphasis on youth - what more could we ask for?" said Rod Higgins, Bobcats President of Basketball Operations, at Thursday morning's press conference.

Most people were stunned by the move. Fans were left with only one simple question: "How?"

"Well, I changed the name on my résumé from 'Mike' to 'Michael' and no one seemed to notice," Dunlap said with a shrug.

The announcement of a decision so soon came as a shock to many. After cutting Dunlap loose following his first season, the Bobcats said they "ultimately decided that he was not the right fit to lead our team into the future."

With such consistent sustainable future success in mind, most thought the Bobcats' next coaching decision would be a lengthy process. Various media reports from across the nation stated that the team had lined up interviews with coaching candidates in coming weeks.

But all were canceled immediately after the Bobcats front office met with Michael Dunlap, who just so happened to have moved to the area about a year ago.

"We're very lucky to find such a qualified, if under-the-radar coaching talent," Higgins said. "And the fact that he lives around here is an incredible coincidence. We really lucked out finding Michael."

Last year's coaching search ended with less than impressive results after candidates initially included Hall of FamerJerry Sloan, Phil Jackson prodigy Brian Shaw and Quin Snyder. Sloan and Shaw both removed themselves from the running and the Bobcats decided to go back to the drawing board, ending up with former Nuggets assistant coach and St. John's assistant/interim head coach Mike Dunlap.

Despite tripling Charlotte's total season wins and more than doubling their win percentage, Dunlap garnered a surprising zero Coach of the Year votes. The Bobcats didn't seem to buy into Dunlap's coaching ability and certainly didn't think he would be their long term solution.

"Mike did fine last season, but stability breeds consistency and we didn't think he'd provide that," Higgins elaborated. "On the other hand, Michael fills that need with a concentration on defense, tough love player management and communication skills."

When asked about the resemblance between the two Dunlaps, Bobcats general manager Rich Cho said "Well, perhaps they do share some similar features, but we're not going to rule out a guy just because he kind of looks a bit like someone else. Dunlap's a common last name. Is it not enough that their first names are different?"

"Come on, you gotta give us more credit than that," he added.

New head coach Michael Dunlap said he is extremely excited to begin his work with the Bobcats and that he has already prepared for the job by "humbling himself" every day.